The season is near.
If this is the third version of my “Big Boards”, it
must mean Week 1 is right around the corner. While the lockout figured
to make this a difficult season to predict from the start, I must
admit this year seems particularly tough, with more questions than
ever, especially at the top of the draft. Can I count on Arian Foster
playing all season long? Is this the year that Darren McFadden/Felix
Jones/Jahvid Best will stay healthy? Will Jamaal Charles and Peyton
Hillis fold late in the season due to unforgiving schedules? Will
Rashard Mendenhall crumble due to his workload from last season?
(I could go on…) On this topic, allow me to offer one bit
of advice as you complete your drafts: be sure to not conveniently
forget one player’s injury history while using another player’s
injury history against him. For every player that is high on McFadden,
there is at least 1-2 people who are scared off by the injury risk
that Foster, Jones and Best present. (Foster played through a torn
meniscus last year and Best finished in the top 20 RBs in PPR last
season despite playing with turf toe in both feet!)
With all that said, I feel as good about my projections this year
as I have in any year since I developed my PSA methodology four
years ago, so my biggest concern now is the order I place these
players in – a very important part of the job, if I say so
myself. My first big money-league 12-team PPR draft will take place
the same day this piece hits the site – I select at #10 in
that one – so it goes without saying that I want to feel good
about how I have the players stacked up. While I am very much a
drafter that subscribes to the “let-the-draft-come-to-me”
approach, the fact of the matter is that I have certain expectations
about where I need to draft certain positions in order to field
a championship team. Regardless, here are some of the questions
I need to answer soon: 1) can I afford to take the early hit on
Chris Johnson if he is still available with the hope that he’ll
be healthy enough to take advantage of his schedule later on? and
2) can I afford to pass on Michael Vick or Aaron Rodgers should
either player make it to my second-round pick, even though I would
just as soon take Matt Ryan, Matthew Stafford or Ben Roethlisberger
a few rounds later? (I’ve seen Vick and Rodgers make it to
the second round a number of times in big-money leagues drafts already.)
Based on my research, a Johnson-McFadden duo is possible and a Johnson-Vick
or Vick-McFadden is attainable. (Then again, at the rate the Foster
story is moving, he might be available to me…we can dream
anyway.)
While I ponder my own drafting questions, it’s time for me
to start answering some of yours. As I have mentioned many times
before over the years, "value" in drafting is key. Need
has to outweigh value on occasion, but for the most part, it can't
hurt to take the best player left on the board. And it is with both
need and value in mind that I present my final "Big Board"
of the season.
Before I get to the boards, though, I would like to remind each
of my readers about a couple of key points:
1) my “Big Boards” are not going to look like many other
draft boards you see. My method of evaluating fantasy players relies
heavily on consistency and schedule, not on overall fantasy point
totals. All too often, fantasy owners and even the so-called "experts"
get hamstrung by the final numbers. Don't get me wrong, I want all
my players to have 300+ points at the end of the season. But as
the old saying goes, "It's not about the destination, it's
about the journey"; if my RB1 gives me seven spectacular performances
along with six duds during the regular season, there's a fairly
decent chance I may end up 7-6. I don’t want that and neither
should you.
2) I will push a player down my board if
feel he is a health risk or if I simply don’t/can’t
trust him. If you take the time to break down each position I provide
below, you will notice that I don’t follow the point totals
or averages to a tee. Outside of trust issues, I will push a player
down my board – despite a higher average or overall point
total – if I believe he will simply be less consistent throughout
the season or if his playoff schedule appears treacherous.
No, I don't claim to see the future, but history tells us that defenses
like the Jets, Packers and Steelers (this year anyway) will end
more fantasy championship dreams than they help.
***In an attempt to add another level of accuracy to my overall
rankings this year, I have decided to quantify value on my Big Board.
In short, the value that you will see below is based on the VORP
(Value Over Replacement Player) concept for a two-RB, three-WR league
with a flex spot, which allows me to essentially compare apples
and oranges. At QB and TE, the value reflects the standard deviation
from the 12th player at the position – the last starting-caliber
player at the position. At RB and WR, the standard deviation is
based on the 36th player at the position. The
underlying assumption I took with using the 36th player at RB as
my basis was that owners would prefer RBs as opposed to WRs or TEs
at their flex spot. One last note to mention regarding the
values – numbers that are bolded and italicized reflect positive
values while the regular-print numbers are essentially negative.
(For the more statistically-inclined, the former values are on the
right side of the bell curve while the latter values are on the
left of the bell curve.)
Let’s revisit the color-coding system before we start:
Red – A very difficult matchup.
For lower-level players, a red matchup means they should not be
considered in fantasy. For a second- or third-tier player, don’t
expect much and drop your expectations for them at least one grade
that week (i.e. from WR2 to WR3). For elite players, expect them
to perform like an average player at his position.
Yellow – Keep expectations
fairly low in this matchup. For lower-level players, a yellow
matchup is a borderline start at best. For a second- or third-tier
player, they can probably overcome the matchup if things fall
right. For the elite players, expect slightly better than average
production from them in this matchup.
Grey – Basically, this matchup
is one that could go either way. In some cases, I just don’t
feel like I have a good feel yet for this defense. Generally speaking,
white matchups are winnable matchups for all levels of players.
Green – It doesn’t
get much better than this. The stage is basically set for a player
with a green matchup to exploit; it’s up to him to take
advantage.
Blue – I’m using this
color to highlight the 14 blue-chippers (or “foundation
players” and “building blocks” as I like to
call them) in the draft this year. These players, for all intents
and purposes, should be the first ones off the board. Therefore,
if you are selecting at pick #18 in your draft and Nicks or Vick
is somehow still available, I would recommend that you take Nicks
or Vick over any other remaining player.
Key:
OVR – Overall Rank
PR – Position Rank
FPts – Fantasy points scored
FPts/ G – Fantasy points/game
Value - Read *** above
Please note the “Pos” column in the two Big Boards
below. In an effort to help drafters identify tiers within the Big
Board, I have designated each player outside of the top 14 with
specific labels (such as RB1 or WR4). As is the case with most of
my work, I don’t necessarily work inside the confines of a
12-team league structure. If I feel there are 10 players worthy
of being designated RB1s and four players worthy of RB2 status,
it means owners would be wise to get their RBs quickly because the
law of supply and demand is not working in your favor if you pass
up a good RB. The “1/2” designation following a few
of the positions below is my way of suggesting that said player
is a capable “1” at his position assuming the other
positions on your team are strong, but that his production is most
suited for a “2”.
Here is the scoring
system that I used to rank the players:
Top 25: Let’s get right to
the #1 overall pick debate: should you take Foster, Rice or Peterson
at the top of the draft? It’s obvious by looking above who
I prefer. But instead of looking at each player’s many strengths,
let’s look at why each player could fail to live up to their
draft position. While I would agree that Rice probably has the
most going for him at the moment, the Ravens’ offensive
line is far from settled. There’s also a pretty good chance
he starts out slow (because of the schedule and the history of
OC Cam Cameron’s RBs). If owners draft Rice with the idea
that Foster may be limited early on, then they may be missing
out on the scoring potential that Foster has in a good offense
as the season progresses and his hamstring is 100%. Peterson probably
represents the safest RB pick in this year’s drafts, but
while he may push his career high in touches this season, he is
arguably running behind his worst line in five years with the
Vikings. And with a number of Vikings’ opponents sporting
impressive offenses, will Minnesota be able to get AP the ball
15-20 times per game week in and week out? Finally, Foster’s
warts are well-known at this point: his hamstring and the loss
of FB Vonta Leach. Before owners get too preoccupied with Leach’s
absence, understand that Foster had a slightly better average
in one-back sets last year (5.3 YPC on 111 attempts) than he did
out of the I-formation (4.9 YPC on 128 attempts). Now there isn’t
a great deal I can do to ease your mind about his hamstring, but
if it was as bad as the media is making it sound right now, would
team doctors allow him to jog on it a couple of days after it
happened?
McFadden isn’t really a player I want to like this year (three
reds, including two in the last five weeks of the fantasy season),
but I can’t seem to help myself. Unlike so many other offenses
with amazing RBs, HC Hue Jackson and OC Al Saunders know their
team’s best player is McFadden. They also know he is the team’s
best receiver. So considering the downside (at least three missed
games in each of his first three seasons), is his durability more
of a question than Chris
Johnson’s holdout? It’s unrealistic to believe Johnson will
carry the ball 20+ times in Week 1 even though his holdout is
over. Just about every holdout of this length seems to end up
with a hamstring or knee injury, so I consider Johnson as much
of an injury risk now as I do McFadden.
As much as it pains me, I don’t want Jamaal Charles on
my team during the second half of the season. Not only do I not
trust HC Todd Haley or the offense minus Charlie Weis, but I also
don’t know how he maintains RB1 status through the five-week
stretch late in the season (Weeks 11-15) where the Chiefs face
New England, Pittsburgh, Chicago, NY Jets and Green Bay. His ability
as a receiver should save him from face-planting, but expecting
elite numbers during that time would be foolish. If you must select
him, start looking to deal him around Kansas City’s Week
6 bye since he will have yet to face an opponent who should put
the clamps on him. At that point, he may have earned enough “consistency
points” from fellow owners to swap him for another RB1.
26-50: Shortly after last
week’s Big Board, I took a closer look at Matt Ryan. It seems
as though he posted a 3,706-28-9 line as a passer in 2010. (Look
for yourself.) Despite less than stellar options from the
time he joined the franchise – Roddy
White was just starting to establish himself as a top receiver
when the QB was a rookie – Ryan has increased his TD total by
six each season he has been in the league. While I’m not going
to say he will throw 34 this year, I will say it is very possible
he does and he’ll probably exceed 4,000 yards passing for the
first time in his career as well, considering how much OC Mike
Mularkey is putting on his plate this year. In addition to running
the no-huddle with regularity, Ryan is checking in and out of
plays in much the same way Peyton
Manning has for years. But my biggest reason to believe he
will join the elite QBs this season is his supporting cast. Julio
Jones is already more Roddy White than Michael
Jenkins and he’s only going to get better while Harry
Douglas will likely emerge as one of the best slot receivers
in the league this year if he can stay healthy.
Those of us who write about fantasy football often suffer from
the same prejudices as the typical owner, especially when it comes
to injuries. When the player isn’t flashy, he gets knocked
down even more. Such is the fate of Joseph Addai, who is about
as likely to make the highlight reel as he is to play 16 games.
The problem with disrespecting Addai is that when plays, he produces.
Since the start of the 2009 season, Addai has posted 18 double-digit
fantasy-point games in PPR leagues (in 22 chances) during the
fantasy regular season (Weeks 1-16). In a perfect world, his durability
issues would make him a fantasy RB3 at best. But given that he’s
good for another 200-carry, 40-catch season in the Colts’
offense if he can last the season and all the question marks or
time-shares on the board around him, owners should feel very fortunate
to land him as a flex or low-end RB2. When he plays, he has shown
he will put up the numbers.
51-100: Every so often, a player
comes along that owners neither want on their team nor do they
want any other owner to draft. That player this year is Kenny
Britt. Undeniably talented and unquestionably the lead WR
in Tennessee, Britt is the prototypical red-flag player that owners
want to embrace even if they find his off-field decision-making
a bit troubling. Britt should get the chance to reward his owners
with 2-3 WR1 games this fall and a lot of WR2 production when
the offense concentrates more on running the ball. Much like I
alluded to with Addai above, Britt would be a WR3 in a perfect
world, but when he is healthy and away from the courthouse (yes,
that is a legitimate concern), he’ll likely meet and/or exceed
your expectations.
A recent e-mailer stated that Lance Kendricks was “my boy”.
I’m not sure I’m crazy about being associated with
a rookie TE, but it is hard to ignore just how easily Kendricks
is getting open this summer and how often Sam Bradford is looking
for him. Drafted to play the Aaron Hernandez role in OC Josh McDaniels’
offense, Kendricks could very well end up playing the role of
Brandon Lloyd in that he emerges as the unlikely go-to option
in this offense. Certainly, I expect Danny Amendola to lead the
team in receptions and Mike Sims-Walker to play a key role as
well, but Kendricks will create the most mismatches each week
and I expect Bradford to be able to exploit them.
101-175: Rashad Jennings’
stock could be spiraling soon if his knee injury turns out to
be serious (he was seen leaving last week’s preseason game
on crutches). If speculation of Jennings going on the PUP list
turns out to be true, it means Jones-Drew is probably worth taking
in the first round again. Furthermore, if Jennings must sit, owners
need to get familiar with Deji Karim, who is more LaRod Stephens-Howling
to Jennings’ Ryan Williams (for those owners who don’t
see a lot of the Jaguars. Karim is “more of a specialty
back” as GM Gene Smith said back in May, but for a team
that likes to run the ball as much as Jacksonville does, Karim
would likely see enough work to make him worthy of a roster spot
in deeper fantasy leagues.
My selection of Antonio Brown is really more of a combo pick.
While I understand no league will allow you to take two players
with one pick just because they are fighting for the same spot
on their team, allow me to explain. Brown has done everything
the Steelers’ coaching staff could have expected this preseason
and figures to enter Week 1 as Pittsburgh’s third receiver.
However, Emmanuel Sanders is the more refined route-runner and
offers the same kind of explosiveness Brown does. Therefore, if
you’re an owner who believes Brown has a shot to hold the
job because of his preseason performance and that Sanders won’t
stay healthy, draft Brown. But if you believe in playing the percentages
and rolling with the better overall receiver, select Sanders.
I expect Sanders to start slow, but to come on and push Hines
Ward for Big Ben’s attention by the end of the season.
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