Notes:
- ITM for all games will be available on Friday.
- Green highllight indicates plus matchup (top eight)
- Red highlight indicates negative matchup (bottom eight)
Passing
Game Thoughts: Denver’s quarterback situation hasn’t
led to the most consistent fantasy results this season but last
week’s game gave fantasy owners a reason to smile. Trevor
Siemian isn’t going to punch your ticket to a fantasy championship
anytime soon but he gets a nice match up and appears to have a
good approach - get Demaryius Thomas the ball. Thomas is averaging
ten targets a game over the past three weeks and (gulp) may be
considered a low end WR1 this week. It’s really tough trusting
a receiver in an offense that barely reaches 200 yards passing
but the veteran has been receiving such a large proportion of
the team’s passes that his floor is amongst the highest
of any of other fantasy receiver. He won’t lose too many
looks near the goal either so give him the nod as your WR2 and
hope Siemian can pick up where he left off last week.
Unfortunately, the leftovers are rather scant for anyone else
to be a useful source of fantasy production. Emmanuel Sanders
has needed four weeks to get the same amount of catches that Thomas
had least week. Virgil Green and Bennie Fowler didn’t even
register a catch a week ago. If the Colts can figure out a way
to stop Demaryius Thomas they might just have a shot at winning
a battle of field goals.
IND FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.14
IND FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.5
IND FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.7
IND FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.11
Running Game Thoughts: C.J. Anderson saw 59-percent of the Broncos’
offensive snaps last week and received a two to one touch advantage
over Devontae Booker. Anderson has more fantasy appeal than his
backfield counterpart but that doesn’t mean he belongs in
your fantasy lineup. He has been able to reach at least five fantasy
points in three of the past four weeks but he doesn’t bring
much touchdown upside to the table with only one score since Week
3. Indy has been better at stopping the run in the second half
of the season and has only allowed three rushing touchdowns over
the team’s past five games. Although he is the starter and
getting more carries, Anderson’s low ceiling is the real
limiting factor to the decision to keep him benched this week.
Additionally, the team may decide to give the younger Booker a
few more carries in the final weeks of a losing season. The backup
has shown flashes at times but hasn’t been able to unseat
Anderson when given the chance so avoid both players if possible.
Passing
Game Thoughts: As we prepare for Week 15, who would have
figured that the Colts have called a higher percentage of running
plays than all but five other teams in the entire league? Quarterback
Jacoby Brissett has reached 30 passing attempts only once in the
past month of action after doing so in every week between Weeks
5 and 9. That has caused Brissett to accrue about five less fantasy
points per game in his most recent stretch of games. Thursday
night’s showdown with another struggling team would seem
to provide a glimmer of hope but the Orange Crush have been an
unfavorable matchup for opposing fantasy players despite being
less dominating in 2017. The team’s biggest threat in the
passing game, T.Y. Hilton, hasn’t scored more than three
fantasy points in a home game since Week 5 and is lucky to see
six targets lately. The limited upside of the entire passing game
makes everyone a touchdown or bust fantasy play for Week 15. Then
again, if you are playing meaningful fantasy games at this time
of year, you probably didn’t have many Colts on your roster.
The Colts may need to throw the ball more to win this game counting
on them to be more effective against a defense coming off a shutout
remains a risky proposition.
DEN FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.24
DEN FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.25
DEN FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.31
DEN FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.4
Running Game Thoughts: The current
state of the Colts offense has produced a fraction of its typical
level of production this year but that hasn’t stopped Frank
Gore from grinding out fantasy points. The Colts still rank amongst
the ten least productive fantasy backfields coming into Week 15,
but Gore’s 36-carry, 130-yard performance against the Bills
last week place him 20th amongst running backs in standard scoring
leagues. In doing so, he eclipsed the 200-carry mark for the twelfth
straight season of his career. Unfortunately, the short week and
overload of carries make it extremely difficult to predict a quality
outing against the Broncos on Thursday night. With that in mind,
Marlon Mack has a good shot at out-producing Gore in the fantasy
realm this week. Mack’s versatility out of the backfield
and increased usage in this game could easily see him surpass
his current high-water mark of 14 this year. In a better matchup
I might consider him as a low end RB2/Flex but the floor is considerably
low against the Broncos. Too many unknowns make him a potentially
hazardous flex option.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Those fantasy owners who scooped up Aaron
Rodgers probably have a decision to make this week. Rodgers is
set to return from a collarbone injury that has derailed the Packers
season. Most quarterbacks would need a week or two but Mr. Doublecheck
isn’t your typical fantasy QB. He will go into this game
with a full week of practice under his belt. Carolina’s
secondary continues to have problems stopping the pass. Carolina
has given up more fantasy points to wide receivers than any other
NFL defense over the past five weeks and must now deal with Rodgers,
Jordy Nelson and Davante Adams return to their starting glory.
Nelson’s timing with Rodgers is uncanny and should immediately
vault him back into the top 15 at his position. Meanwhile, Adams
stands a chance at losing out on some targets without Brett Hundley
under center. Adams had overtaken Nelson to become the best receiver
to own on this roster but it’s unlikely to expect Rodgers
to abandon his favorite target (Nelson) in favor of Adams. Randall
Cobb will continue to be a useful PPR asset gobbling up high percentage
passes and the occasional touchdown.
CAR FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.25
CAR FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.30
CAR FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.11
CAR FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.26
Running Game Thoughts: The entire offense gets a big boost in
fantasy rankings this week as Rodgers returns to the huddle. That
will only make Jamaal Williams a stronger fantasy option for those
fortunate enough to have rostered him this season. The Brigham
Young product has scored in three straight contests, with multiple
touchdowns in two of them. Rodgers’ return may give the
team more options near the goal but some of that production can
be accounted for with more yards. After a pair of big games midway
through the season Aaron Jones has been ineffective in a backup
role. That cements Williams as a solid dual threat RB2 this week
and a RB1 throughout the rest of the fantasy playoff season.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Cam Newton has been better at keeping other’s
fantasy values from tanking this season than keeping his afloat.
The Panthers quarterback was limited at practice this week as
he continues to nurse a shoulder ailment. Newton’s favorite
target, Devin Funchess, has now seen at least seven targets in
four of the past five games and has scored four touchdowns during
that span. Funchess has more receptions in 2017 than he had during
his first two years as a pro and is set to go over the 100-target
threshold for the first time in his career. Russell Shepard has
had too many goose-eggs to be trusted with a starting roster designation.
If anyone other than Funchess is to emerge in the passing game
it will be Greg Olsen. The veteran stalwart has been slowed by
a bum foot that required surgery this season. He was able to make
it through last week’s game without incident and should
be a larger part of the team’s game plan this week. The
Packers have been one of the ten best matchups for opposing fantasy
tight ends in the past five games so Olsen should finally return
to being a useful fantasy starter this week.
GB FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.10
GB FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.9
GB FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.4
GB FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.31
Running Game Thoughts: Christian McCaffrey out-snapped Jonathan
Stewart 44 to 26 last week. The rookie fared well against the
Vikings but it was Jonathan Stewart that stole the show. Count
me as somebody who didn’t see a three touchdown, 100-rushing
yard game coming from the lifelong Panther running back. Especially
since he saw only one third of the offensive snaps in the backfield.
The versatility McCaffrey offers gives the coaching staff more
reason to keep him on the field over Stewart so don’t expect
that to drastically change this week after one huge game. I feel
like this game will go back and forth into the second half which
bodes well for McCaffrey to see maximum touches as a runner and
receiver but his upside will remain limited by the presence of
Stewart. As a result, both running backs fall into flex territory
for me in Week 15.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Josh McCown’s broken hand will lead
to Bryce Petty starting for the Jets in Week 15. Petty might be
a solid name in other sports, but it isn’t steeped in NFL
tradition. New York’s backup quarterback situation is one
to avoid. Neither Petty or Christian Hackenberg were able to force
their way into the lineup during the preseason. Nor have they
given the coaching staff on a losing team a reason to bench a
known commodity in McCown these past few weeks. New Orleans is
banged up on the defensive side of the ball but that won’t
help Gang Green much considering Petty was only able to complete
two passes in limited time against Denver. He will also be playing
in one of the tougher arenas for opposing teams. Rather than trying
to figure out if anyone from the Jets receiving corps will show
up, I’d simply release them from your roster.
NO FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.17
NO FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.21
NO FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.15
NO FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.23
Running Game Thoughts: With McCown having moderate success this
season, Bilal Powell and Matt Forte have been useful at times
throughout the season. That all changes with Petty at the helm.
New Orleans won’t have a lot of reason to respect the passing
game so look for a greater defensive emphasis to stop the rushing
attack. Powell has been a slightly better fantasy option than
Forte lately but I can’t recommend starting a running back
with a sub 3.0 YPC over his past two games. First downs will be
in short supply so expecting a small boost from his stats in the
passing game is also foolish. Forte is hanging around to steal
a few touches from Powell but not enough to make himself a viable
flex option. The Jets will lean heavily on both of their running
backs to take pressure off of their inexperienced quarterback
but I wouldn’t count on either one of them having much fantasy
success while splitting carries.
Value Meter:
Bench: Bryce Petty, Matt Forte, Bilal Powell, Robby Anderson,
Jermaine Kearse, Austin Seferian-Jenkins
Passing
Game Thoughts: Drew Brees didn’t look great against
the Falcons and still completed 26 passes to allow him to post
his best fantasy outing in the past three weeks. He should have
another quality but unspectacular performance against the Jets
this weekend. New York has lost games to Trevor Siemian, Cam Newton
and Ryan Fitzpatrick in three of its past four weeks without any
of them scoring more than 18 fantasy points. Conversely, their
past two wins saw opposing quarterbacks Tyrod Taylor and Alex
Smith total 31 and 41 fantasy points respectively. In an expected
blowout, I suspect Brees bounces back in Week 15. There isn’t
much to dissect in New Orleans’ passing game. Michael Thomas
should be a fixture in your starting lineup. Ted Ginn Jr. is a
borderline flex option in good matchups but hasn’t scored
a touchdown or gone over eight fantasy points (standard scoring)
since Week 9. Counting on anyone else is a shot in the dark-which
might be better than your other options (see Jets above).
NYJ FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.3
NYJ FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.24
NYJ FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.6
NYJ FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.8
Running Game Thoughts: Alvin Kamara’s concussion took some
people out of the fantasy playoffs before the weekend. If you
survived or were fortunate enough to not be playing in an elimination
game then you will be thankful to know that Kamara is feeling
better this week. He has returned to practice and looks like he
will be able to play this weekend but he hasn’t been cleared
to play at the time of this writing so be sure to check back for
an official update on his status. Mark Ingram didn’t take
advantage of the backfield situation but still managed to post
92 total yards. The Jets have been stingy against the run so don’t
expect either player to have much room to run. Assuming he is
cleared from concussion protocol, Kamara’s homerun capability
makes him a stronger fantasy play in this game. Ingram maintains
his position as the higher floor and less risky fantasy option.
You are starting both in redraft leagues, but go with the higher
ceiling in DFS.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Whether Houston needed a reason to put Tom
Savage on the bench or not he found his way to the sidelines after
suffering a concussion last week. T.J. Yates has been named the
starter after doing an admirable job as Savage’s replacement.
The journeyman quarterback threw more touchdowns in his relief
appearance than Savage did over the past two plus games so all
fantasy hope is not lost. Well, at least not until you factor
in Houston’s Week 15 opponent. The Jags will make things
awfully tough on Yates and in turn that makes it equally tough
for fantasy owners to plug anyone from a banged up passing attack
being led by a third-string quarterback. The Houston passing game
is like an eclipse these days, it takes a lot of things to line
up perfectly for it to happen and you do not want to look directly
at what unfolds. For all the wrong reasons, it should be a magnificent
display of what has gone wrong with Houston in 2017.
JAC FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.32
JAC FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.23
JAC FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.32
JAC FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.24
Running Game Thoughts: Lamar Miller is the new Frank Gore. The
Texans lead back has now had more than 50 but less than 70 rushing
yards in all of his previous eight games. Playing in an offense
that will have a tough time moving the ball this weekend isn’t
going to increase his chances of scoring a touchdown either. His
only value to fake game managers is knowing he won’t give
you a zero. That’s not saying much. Andre Ellington was
the only other running back to see offensive snaps in last week’s
loss to the 49ers. He has the same value as Miller in PPR leagues
where he will probably give you a couple of points but not nearly
enough to make him a good option for your starting lineup.
Passing Game Thoughts: Blake Bortles?
It’s fantasy playoff time and you are talking about starting
a player that up until
Week 13 had not had a single game with 300 passing yards and multiple
touchdowns this season. The reality is that their young running
back is starting to hit a wall and teams are forcing the Jags
to beat them through the air. The new coaching staff has helped
limit his turnovers and brought his completion percentage up.
A big chunk of the recent success results can be attributed to
the emergence of Dede Westbrook in the passing game. I’ve
harped on Bortles inability to throw multiple touchdown passes
all year but he has accomplished that feat in each of the past
two weeks. 17 passes headed towards Westbrook in those two games
might have something to do with it. Bortles has thrown nearly
as many passes over the past four games (with Westbrook) as he
did over the first four games of the season but his completion
percentage is 7.6 points higher in his most recent month. The
addition of a dynamic secondary weapon in the passing game has
helped this passing attack gain more consistency and move the
chains. A more balanced offensive attack is just enough to make
Westbrook, Bortles and Marqise Lee fantasy starters this weekend
in a favorable matchup with the Texans. Keelan Cole has made big
plays in consecutive weeks as well. He’s in the flex discussion
for deeper leagues but he needs more targets before fantasy owners
can truly believe.
HOU FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.2
HOU FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.29
HOU FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.9
HOU FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.5
Running Game Thoughts: If you expected a rookie to keep chugging
along as a top-five fantasy running back all year, you are naïve.
Leonard Fournette has seen his production dip to the point where
his owners can’t pencil him in as a true RB1 workhorse but
his role hasn’t changed. The carries are better than most
and the uptick in the passing game only improves the rookie’s
chances of finding pay dirt and prevents defenses from loading
the box. He’s playing a Houston team that is only yielding
15.6 fantasy points to opposing running backs in 2017. In a typical
RBBC that may not be too much but with Fournette garnering most
of the workload it means he has a solid floor with room for plenty
of touchdowns if the passing game keeps backing up the defense
into the red zone. Did I mention Houston has allowed four rushing
touchdowns over its past three games?
Passing
Game Thoughts: Over the past two weeks, Ryan has two lowest
completion percentages of the season. If you were able to weather
the storm, it’s time to reinstall Ryan into your starting
lineups. In his last three games against Tampa he is a combined
78 for 108 (72.2 %) so his current streak is likely to rebound.
Furthermore, Ryan tossed four touchdowns in a rout over the Bucs
the last time these teams met in Tampa and they just dispatched
a far tougher Saints team in Week 14. Detroit was able to exploit
the tight end matchup and I suspect Atlanta will copy them to
some extent this week. If the boring Eric Ebron can find a pulse
last week, the equally boring Austin Hooper has a shot to peak
against the same foe this weekend. Ryan’s expected improvements
on the longer week should help the usual suspects be fine choices
for all lineups. These two teams are headed in opposite directions
and I don’t see Tampa Bay keeping up. That would result
in Atlanta taking the foot of the accelerator a little bit and
letting the ground game carry them to the finish line.
TB FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.9
TB FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.6
TB FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.1
TB FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.29
Running Game Thoughts: It’s been a couple of weeks since
Devonta Freeman returned to the lineup but he was running hard
against the Saints and looks like he has put everything behind
him. That’s a great thing for his owners this week because
he projects as a top performer in all of fantasy heading into
this weekend’s divisional match game against the Bucs. Freeman
won’t need a heavy workload to be productive but I expect
the team to make sure he continues to see carries near the goal
after he snapped his six-game touchdown drought a week ago. With
the host team giving up 113 rushing yards per game this season
and more rushing scores than all but two other teams, you can
bet Tevin Coleman (concussion) will get in on the action as well
if he is cleared to play. He’s a great flex and may even
masquerade as a RB2 in deeper formats depending on your other
options.
Passing
Game Thoughts: With everyone watching on Monday night and
his team playing as a true home underdog, Jameis Winston has a
lot riding on his shoulders. Losers of seven straight games, Tampa’s
young signal caller will either keep his team in the game or find
himself padding his stats in garbage time. Either way, it should
result into a palatable fantasy outing so keep him in mind if
you happened to lose Carson Wentz or your usual starter has a
horrible matchup. The Buccaneers will certainly look towards the
future over its last few games and that means O.J. Howard should
get more chances. He saw six passes to Cameron Brate’s one
against the Lions and that trend is likely to continue. Brate’s
presence provides plenty of risk but the upside is too hard to
ignore considering he will be amongst the first numbers called
inside the ten-yard line. If you don’t own a “set
it and forget it” fantasy tight end, give Howard a shot
to have a big day on a national stage.
The Falcons know Mike Evans is the favorite target in this passing
game and Winston’s improved passing percentage has come
at the expense of Mike Evans’ targets. The star wideout
has seen only 11 targets in the past two weeks as defensive coordinators
force Winston to use his secondary options more and more. I don’t
love Evans this week but the touchdown potential and potential
to see ten targets anytime Winston is throwing the ball keep him
WR3 appeal.
ATL FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.18
ATL FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.19
ATL FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.26
ATL FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.28
Running Game Thoughts: I don’t expect Atlanta to shut down
Tampa’s rushing attack but I do think Doug Martin may lose
some touches once this game goes sideways on the scoreboard. I
know Martin has plenty of skills as a receiver but he has yet
to see more than three passes in a single game this year. Add
in his lackluster 17 carries over the past two weeks and you have
the makings for a potential bust at RB2. Week 14 marked the first
time Martin has reached double digits fantasy points since the
first month of the year and his 3.1 YPC on the season doesn’t
inspire much confidence. Charles Sims would be the beneficiary
of the team becoming more pass-heavy but he would need to break
a big play to turn a profit. The Bucs backfield is short on upside
and rich on risk so look elsewhere for Week 15.
Passing
Game Thoughts: The Bears rank dead last in fantasy points
scored by the quarterback position, as Mitchell Trubisky and Mike
Glennon have combined to throw just 10 touchdowns on the season
on 224 pass attempts. No team in the NFL has thrown the ball less
than the Bears or for fewer yards, including subpar passing offenses
like Baltimore, Indianapolis, Tennessee, and Buffalo.
Although he has thrown for a touchdown in four of his last five
games, including a career-best 21 of 35 for 297 yards and a score
Week 10 vs. Green Bay, Trubisky has yet to post a multiple passing
touchdown day, while only topping 20 fantasy points in nine career
starts.
The Bears are a run-oriented team built around a solid defense
and a young quarterback who is asked to make a limited number
of difficult throws. The strength of the Bears matches up well
against the weakness of the Lions, as the Detroit allows the third-most
points per game to running backs. Teams have found success running
the ball against Detroit, and fantasy owners of Jordan Howard
and Tarik Cohen should expect a heavy workload on Sunday.
The same cannot be said for the skill position players in the
passing game, especially wide receivers Dontrelle Inman and Kendall
Wright. Both veteran wideouts have the possibility of scoring
a touchdown, but their respective low volume makes them risky
plays in the fantasy playoffs. If forced to start a receiving
option for Trubisky, fellow rookie Adam Shaheen may be the best
option. The Lions have allowed the seventh-most points to opposing
tight ends and the third most receiving touchdowns, including
an impressive 4/54/1 performance by rookie O.J. Howard last week
at Tampa Bay.
DET FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.13
DET FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.3
DET FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.20
DET FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.7
Running Game Thoughts: Detroit has been in a tailspin defensively
over the past month, allowing the most offensive touchdowns during
a span in which they faced off against subpar offensives like
Tampa Bay, Baltimore, Chicago, and Cleveland.
An opposing running back has scored a rushing touchdown in each
of the past eight games, with eight different tailbacks posting
double-digit fantasy points. Bears tailback Jordan Howard became
the fifth running back in that stretch to score a touchdown as
part of an impressive 15/125/1 day for the second-year back from
Indiana, while backfield mate Tarik Cohen added a score and 44
yards on nine carries.
Howard enters the game on the heels of his second multi-score
game after an impressive 147-yard, two touchdown performance against
the Bengals Week 14. It was the fifth 100-yard game of the season
for Howard and the 12th in 28 career games.
On paper, a matchup against a Lions defense that is falling apart
at the seams and allows the third-most points to opposing backs
looks promising for Howard. In games this season in which he looked
primed for big games, including two weeks ago against San Francisco,
Howard failed to deliver.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Matthew Stafford played through a slow start
and a bruised hand to throw for 381-yards and a touchdown in a
close win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Sunday. For the second
consecutive week, Stafford completed over 80% of his passes, including
eight of nine throws to Golden Tate for 85 yards and a touchdown.
Detroit’s Week 15 opponent provides more of a challenge
for Stafford and the Lions passing game than Tampa Bay, as Chicago
allows the fifth-fewest points to opposing quarterbacks. Only
three QBs have managed to throw for more than one touchdown passes
in a game against Vic Fangio’s secondary, with only one
opposing quarterback reaching 300 or more passing yards.
On a positive note for Stafford owners, the former first-round
pick from Georgia is one of the three QB’s to post a multi-touchdown
game, and Stafford came just one yard short of the 300-yard plateau
when the two teams faced off Week 11 in Chicago.
A similar level of production from Stafford can be expected on
Saturday, especially if the Detroit defense continues to struggle
against the run and the Bears can force a positive game script
for Detroit skill position players.
Look for Golden Tate to continue to be the focus of the passing
game on short and intermediary routes. The Bears tend to play
two deep safeties to limit deep passes (only two deep touchdown
passes allowed on the season), making throws underneath to Tate
and tight end Eric Ebron open for Stafford.
Chicago’s strength at limiting deep passes somewhat negates
the upside of Marvin Jones and Kenny Golladay. However, Jones’
ability as a high-end red zone threat makes him a must-start.
CHI FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.28
CHI FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.22
CHI FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.16
CHI FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.27
Running Game Thoughts: Head coach Jim Caldwell told reporters
on Wednesday that Ameer Abdullah will likely return to action
after missing the past few weeks with a neck injury. Initially
reported as a healthy scratch against Tampa Bay last week, Caldwell
said that the former Nebraska Cornhusker was not active Week 14
due to health issues.
Regardless of which three running backs participate in the three-headed
committee, none of them are safe starts in standard size leagues.
Theo Riddick provided a spark last week with 21.3 fantasy points
on 93 total yards, but his value would be marginalized with a
return of Abdullah. The two backs combined for a pedestrian 57
yards on 20 carries against Chicago Week 11, with Abdullah saving
the day for fantasy owners with a fluky touchdown reception.
The Bears do not provide an overly attractive matchup as the
22nd ranked team in points allowed to opposing running backs,
and injuries to four of five starting offensive linemen for Detroit
make Abdullah and Riddick even riskier.
Starting guard T.J. Lang missed practice on Wednesday with a
lingering foot injury. Lang missed multiple practices prior leading
up the Bucs game but was able to start. Center Travis Swanson
missed Wednesday’s practice with a concussion, and right
tackle Rick Wagner is dealing with an ankle injury. Left tackle
Taylor Decker is listed with a shoulder injury but appears to
be on pace to play. Of the four injured linemen, Swanson is the
likeliest to miss unless he is able to clear concussion protocol
by Friday.
Passing
Game Thoughts: After a heartbreaking loss on Monday Night
Football to the Steelers Week 13, the Bengals appeared to quit
on head coach Marvin Lewis in a pathetic 33-7 home loss to the
Chicago Bears. An injury-depleted defensive unit had no energy
and struggled collectively to make tackles, while Andy Dalton
and the offense were out of synch and lifeless.
At 5-8, the Bengals are still technically alive in the playoff
hunt, but a loss on the road against a tough Vikings team will
eliminate them from playoff contention.
A win against the Vikings will take a near-flawless performance
from Dalton, the No.17th ranked fantasy quarterback in points
scored this season. Although the Bengals offense ranks dead last
in total offense with 3604 total yards (The Saints are first with
5209), Dalton has been highly efficient over his last seven games,
with 12 passing touchdowns and just one interception dating back
to Week 8.
The Vikings allow the third-fewest points to opposing quarterbacks
and have limited some of the most potent offenses in the league
to less than 20 points. The Saints, Rams, and Falcons all failed
to reach their respective season averages against Minnesota, and
no opposing quarterback has managed to throw for more than two
touchdowns this season.
A key matchup in the passing game will be A.J. Green vs. Xavier
Rhodes on the outside. Rhodes started the season off strong with
stellar performances against elite receivers like Michael Thomas,
Antonio Brown, and Mike Evans, but has stumbled as of late against
Marvin Jones and Devin Funchess. Green has found success this
season in both easy and challenging matchups, including a 4/51/1
line against the Broncos and 7/189/1 performance against a weak
Buffalo secondary.
According to FootballOutsiders.com, the Bengals offensive line
ranks 22nd out of 32 teams in pass protection, and Andy Dalton
is sacked an average of 2.5 times per game. The ability of Cincinnati’s
offensive line protecting Dalton against Everson Griffen’s
pass rush on the outside and Mike Zimmer’s exotic blitz
packages will be critical for the underdog Bengals have any shot
of winning this game.
MIN FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.30
MIN FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.31
MIN FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.21
MIN FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.30
Running Game Thoughts: Rookie Joe Mixon has yet to the league’s
concussion protocol, but the former Oklahoma Sooner is progressing
according to Paul Dehner Jr. of the Cincinnati Enquirer. If Mixon
is unable to pass the required steps to clear the protocol, Giovani
Bernard will get another start.
Bernard has been much more efficient than Mixon this season,
averaging 4.5 yards per carry on 58 attempts, including 24 carries
for 139 yards while Mixon has been out of the lineup. In PPR leagues
Bernard was a great play last week with six catches for 68 yards
to go along with 62 yards rushing. Touchdowns continue to be an
issue for the veteran back, but he would be worthy of another
flex start should Mixon not clear the protocol.
Only the Eagles allow fewer fantasy points than the Vikings,
a number that is skewed by the three-touchdown performance last
week by Jonathan Stewart. If you take out the outlier game by
the Panthers, only three players have managed to score a rushing
touchdown vs. Minnesota, and only Benny Cunningham of the Bears
has managed to reach the end zone on a reception out of the backfield.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Case Keenum enters Week 15 ranked 15th in
points per game among quarterbacks, less than a point behind Philip
Rivers, Jared Goff, and Drew Brees, while only Russell Wilson
has averaged more points per game than Keenum over the past five
games.
In three consecutive road games against NFC playoff contenders
Detroit, Atlanta, and Carolina, Keenum averaged 263 passing yards
and two touchdowns. A home game against an injury-depleted Bengals
unit that just allowed 33 points to the league’s lowest
scoring offense at home pales in comparison to the difficult opponents
Keenum and the Vikings faced in their last four games.
Linebackers Vontaze Burfict and Nick Vigil are listed as non-participants
in practice on Wednesday with head and ankle injuries, while cornerbacks
Darqueze Dennard and Dre Kirkpatrick were also absent. When healthy
the Bengals defensive unit ranked in the top ten in fewest points
allowed to opposing quarterbacks. But with injuries taking their
toll and the Bengals fading from playoff contention, Cincinnati
has taken a big step back in pass defense, allowing the six-most
points over the past three games.
The ascension of Adam Thielen as the favorite target and No.1
wide receiver in Minnesota is complete, as Thielen is seventh
in the NFL in fantasy points per game - only a tenth of a point
behind first-round pick A.J. Green. After starting off red hot,
injuries and sporadic play have attributed to the gradual decline
of Stefon Diggs from an elite player over the first month of the
season to the 21st ranked WR in points per game.
CIN FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.21
CIN FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.7
CIN FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.29
CIN FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.17
Running Game Thoughts: After a strong start to the season allowing
only two rushing touchdowns and zero 100-yard rushers in the first
five games, the Bengals have declined into one of the worst rush
defenses over the past five games. Starting with Demarco Murray’s
three-touchdown game Week 10 and continuing with Jordan Howard’s
23/147/2 game last week, only the Bills have been more giving
to opposing running backs over the past month.
Cincinnati’s struggles over that period coincide with the
Vikings excelling in the run game as the No.11 ranked ground game
in the league. Latavius Murray has been a consistent force for
fantasy owners with double-digit points in four of his last five
games, including a two-touchdown game against the Rams the last
time the Vikings played at home.
Murray’s rise up the running back rankings comes at the
expense of backfield mate Jerick McKinnon, who after a strong
four-game run from Weeks 5 through 8, has just one touchdown and
one double-digit performance in his last five games.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Through 13 games and 422 pass attempts,
Joe Flacco is on pace to set a career-low in average fantasy points
scored. His 13.7 points per game places him 40th in the league,
behind fantasy stalwarts Matt Moore, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Mike Glennon,
and rookie Mitchell Trubisky. Flacco has yet to throw for more
than two touchdowns in a game, and he does not have the isolated
rushing touchdown that has bolstered his stats in previous seasons.
On a positive note, the former Delaware Fightin’ Blue Hen
is on a hot streak with two consecutive 21-point performances
and the Baltimore offense is on a tear with 83 points scored against
Detroit and Pittsburgh.
The Browns allow the sixth-most points to opposing quarterbacks
and are tied with the Broncos and Giants for the most passing
touchdowns allowed on the year (26). With Baltimore looking to
hold onto the wild card and sixth-seed in the AFC playoffs, a
third-consecutive multi-touchdown game by Flacco is not out of
the realm of possibility, making him a solid No.2 QB play this
week in two-quarterback leagues.
As you would expect on a team with the 40th-ranked fantasy quarterback,
the skill position players on the Ravens, especially the wide
receivers, are not among the top 25 scorers at their respective
positions. Mike Wallace continues to be the primary deep threat
to stretch the field along with Chris Moore, while Jeremy Maclin
and tight end Benjamin Watson patrol the short and intermediary
routes. Maclin’s first year with the team has been a disappointment,
with just 39 receptions on 71 targets and three touchdowns. Injuries
and a clear lack of rapport with Flacco have hurt the former first-round
pick from Missouri.
Look for tight ends Nick Boyle and Ben Watson to be more active
in this game after combining for just one catch for one yard against
the Steelers. The Browns allow the third-most points to tight
ends and teams have found success attacking the middle of the
field against Cleveland.
CLE FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.6
CLE FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.20
CLE FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.18
CLE FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.3
Running Game Thoughts: After a strong start in run defense, the
Browns have weakened as of late, allowing the 9th-most points
to opposing RBs over the past five games, including a 23/114/1
performance by rookie Joe Mixon Week 12. Seven different running
backs have topped double-digit fantasy points vs. Cleveland dating
back to Week 8, highlighted by a 23.8 point performance by Jamaal
Williams last week.
Cleveland’s recent struggles against the run bodes well
for Alex Collins owners in search of a reliable playoff performance.
The second-year player from Arkansas has quietly put together
a nice season as the 17th-ranked RB in fantasy points per game
and currently owns a four-game streak of scoring at least 100
rushing yards. Collins should be in line for 15 to 25 carries
on Sunday, with the upside of a possible multi-touchdown game.
Buck Allen continues to be the second running back to own and
play in Baltimore, while Danny Woodhead is not worthy of a start
based on his low usage. Allen received only eight touches last
week against the Steelers but made the most of them with 57 yards
and two touchdowns.
Passing
Game Thoughts: A head-scratching interception in overtime
overshadowed the best performance in the young career of rookie
DeShone Kizer. The former Notre Dame Golden Domer completed a
career-best 20 of 28 passes (71%) for 214 yards and three touchdowns,
including an impressive dart to Josh Gordon on a skinny post in
the first quarter. Kizer managed to score 23.4 fantasy points,
despite posting a season-low seven rushing yards on two attempts.
On the season, the Ravens have allowed the second-fewest fantasy
points to opposing quarterbacks, trailing only the Jacksonville
Jaguars by 1.7 points per game. But injuries to the secondary,
including the loss of top corner Jimmy Smith, have made Baltimore
more susceptible to the pass over the past three weeks. The Ravens
have allowed a league-high 1074 yards over the past three games,
highlighted by Ben Roethlisberger’s 500-yard blowout in
primetime Week 14.
Obviously Cleveland pales in comparison to the Steelers in passing
weapons and quarterback play, but Kizer and Gordon could find
success in this home matchup, with Corey Coleman also providing
sneaky value. After commanding 11 of 18 targets to wide receivers
in his first game back from suspension, Gordon and Coleman each
commanded six targets against the Packers Week 14, with each player
finishing with 60-yards and a touchdown.
BAL FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.31
BAL FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.12
BAL FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.30
BAL FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.10
Running Game Thoughts: Isaiah Crowell rushed for a season-high
121 yards on 19 carries against the Packers last week, while adding
three catches for 10 yards. It was the fifth 100-yard performance
in 45 games and the first since Week 17 of the 2016 season.
Duke Johnson salvaged a pedestrian 49-yard game with a receiving
touchdown on an inside pitch play for Kizer’s second passing
touchdown on the day. After four consecutive games of averaging
at least five yards per carry from Weeks 8 through 12, Johnson
has been abysmal with his running efficiency over the past two
games. He has just 10 rushing yards in his last 13 attempts, while
he continues to see a decline in target share out of the backfield
(only four targets in each of his last two games after garnering
at least six targets in six of the previous eight contests).
Baltimore has been surpassingly weak against the run over the
past three games after ranking in the bottom third in points allowed
to RBs for the majority of the season. The Ravens have allowed
a rushing touchdown in each of the past three games, highlighted
by Le’Veon Bell’s mammoth 30.5 point performance last
week.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Tom Brady fell to fourth overall in fantasy
points scored per game after back-to-back subpar performances
in the first two rounds of the fantasy playoffs. The future first
ballot hall of famer has three interceptions and one touchdown
pass in his last two games while completing a season-low 55% of
his passes last week against Miami.
Brady has a history of playing poorly in Miami, and the absence
of tight end Rob Gronkowski limited the effectiveness of the passing
game. The Dolphins did an excellent job of getting pressure on
Brady, and Xavien Howard posted two interceptions while limiting
Brandin Cooks to just one reception for 38 yards on seven targets.
The return of Gronk and another week for Chris Hogan to get healthy
from a shoulder injury should help Brady and the passing game
return to form in a critical AFC showdown between the Steelers
and Patriots.
The unfortunate loss of star linebacker Ryan Shazier to a season-ending
spinal injury is a positive for the Patriots, as the Steelers
defensive unit is not the same without Shazier patrolling the
middle of the field. Over the course of the season, the Steelers
allow the seventh-fewest points to opposing quarterbacks. But
over the past three weeks, two of which without Shazier, the Steelers
have allowed the 11th-most points to QBs, despite playing against
three of the league's least efficient quarterbacks in Joe Flacco,
Andy Dalton, and Brett Hundley.
This game has the makings of a high scoring affair between to
top offenses and two average to below-average defensive units,
with multiple elite fantasy options on both units. Fantasy owners
should consider starting all Patriots in the passing game, including
Cooks and Hogan on the outside. Seven wide receivers have posted
double-digit games against Pittsburgh dating back to Week 10,
including Chris Moore, A.J. Green, and Davante Adams.
Gronk owners may find in concerning that the Steelers allow the
fewest points to opposing tight ends and no tight end has managed
to score double-digit points against Pittsburgh in 2017. The success
of the Steelers is a combination of a favorable schedule void
of any elite tight ends mixed with solid play by Shazier in coverage.
The Steelers have not faced a tight end of Gronks’ ability
and Shazier will not be on the field to help cover Patriot tight
ends.
PIT FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.26
PIT FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.15
PIT FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.23
PIT FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.32
Running Game Thoughts: Bill Belichick is a well-known for taking
away the top offensive threat for the opposition and focusing
on the weakness of their opponent on offense. Belichick will have
his hands full trying to limit the offense of the Steelers, one
of the only units to boast an elite wide receiver and running
back. But on the other side of the ball, attacking the run game
struggles of the Steelers will be something the Patriots focus
on in this game.
Over the past three weeks no team in the NFL has allowed more
points to opposing running backs. Rex Burkhead, Dion Lewis, and
James White owners should be salivating at the prospect of playing
against a Steelers unit that has been gashed in the absence of
Shazier. Burkhead’s use as the goal line and short yardage
back makes him the favorite to score a touchdown, while Lewis
could get a ton of action in what appears to be a favorable high
scoring game script.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Ben Roethlisberger and the Pittsburgh passing
game has been on fire over the past five weeks, with Big Ben leading
all quarterbacks in fantasy points during that span (145). His
29 points per game are slightly ahead of leading MVP candidate
Russell Wilson, while Antonio Brown is lapping the competition
in fantasy points scored by wide receivers.
Brown has been an unstoppable force with six touchdowns and four
connective games of at least eight catches for 100 yards dating
back to Week 11 vs. Tennessee. His performance against the Titans
is one of the most impressive games of the season for any fantasy
player, with 10 catches for 144 yards and three touchdowns.
There is little reason to believe that Big Ben, Brown, and Le’Veon
Bell will not continue their recent success in this matchup at
home against an injury-riddled Patriots unit that ranks fifth
on the season in points allowed to opposing quarterbacks. Far
lesser quarterbacks playing in far worse offenses have found great
success against New England, including Jay Cutler and the Dolphins
last week.
Perhaps the most important member of the passing game in this
matchup is Le’Veon Bell out of the backfield. Bell leads
all running backs with 75 receptions on 92 targets for 579 yards
and two touchdowns. The injury-depleted New England linebacking
corps has struggled this season limiting catches to running backs,
often failing to identify the RB in coverage while failing to
make sure tackles after the catch. New England is tied for second
in allowing the most touchdowns by running backs in the passing
game, and they are tied with Carolina for allowing the 11th-most
catches out of the backfield.
NE FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.5
NE FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.14
NE FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.3
NE FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.19
Running Game Thoughts: Le’Veon Bell continues to impress
as the top duel-threat running back in the league. Owners fortunate
enough to draft or trade for Bell have the benefit of owning the
leading rusher in the league with 1105 yards rushing, mixed with
an above average No. 3 wide receiver with 75 catches for 579 yards
and two scores.
As referenced in the passing section preview, the Patriots struggle
in all aspects of defense this season, particularly in limiting
catches and yards to running backs out of the backfield. Look
for Bell to build on his league-leading reception total (75) among
running backs, while adding at least 25 carries on the ground.
An opposing running back has topped double-digit points in each
of the last three games vs. New England, including Kenyan Drake
of the Dolphins, who managed to scored 30 combined points against
the Pats in Weeks 12 & 14. Anything less than 20 points from
Bell in this high scoring game will be a disappointment, with
the threat of injury the only reason why Bell would not come through
in the playoffs for fantasy owners.
Passing
Game Thoughts: He struggled early this season but Rivers
is red hot right now. The veteran has thrown 14 touchdowns with
just two interceptions over his past eight games and he’s
now finished with 20 or more fantasy points in four straight contests.
He had his worst game of the season earlier this season against
the Chiefs, however, in Los Angeles, when he threw for just 237
yards with no touchdowns and three interceptions. Now he’ll
head on the road, to Kansas City, where the Chiefs play much better
than they do on the road.
If it weren’t for the ridiculous pace that Antonio Brown’s
been on, Keenan Allen might be the most talked-about fantasy wide
receiver. With four straight 100-yard games, Allen is leading
entire fantasy teams to championships at the moment. The one concern
we have going into this game is that Allen only had five catches
for 61 yards when these teams played in Week 3, even though he
does have a solid history against the Chiefs throughout his career.
He has averaged over six catches per game for nearly 80 receiving
yards per game against Kansas City, giving him excellent floor
with upside against a struggling Kansas City secondary.
Los Angeles’ other receivers are extremely big-play dependent.
There’s a fairly good chance that one of them will connect
with Rivers for at least one long ball but it’s anyone’s
guess whether it’ll be Tyrell Williams, Mike Williams or
Travis Benjamin. Trusting them in your fantasy playoffs is probably
not a great idea. Hunter Henry has been producing fairly well
as of late, having at least 50 receiving yards in three straight
games with a pair of touchdowns over that stretch. Henry was held
without a catch – and wasn’t even targeted when these
teams played back in Week 3 so there is some concern that the
Chiefs will look to take him away again. Kansas City has been
terrible against opposing passing games overall this season but
they’ve only given up two touchdowns to tight ends. Henry
is a weak TE1 option, but that’s nothing new for his fantasy
owners who have been dealing with that all season long.
KC FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.8
KC FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.16
KC FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.2
KC FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.21
Running Game Thoughts: Melvin Gordon continues to be one of the
most heavily-utilized running backs in all of football. He’s
touched the ball at least 20 times in five straight games and
hasn’t had fewer than 15 touches in a game since Week 4.
Gordon went for 79 yards on 17 carries against the Chiefs back
in Week 3 and he did score a rushing touchdown but was completely
irrelevant in the passing game. The lack of usage in the passing
game has been a bit of a concern as of late for Gordon as he has
not seen more than five targets in a game since all the way back
in Week 6. Part of that has been the emergence of complementary
back Austin Ekeler who has been utilized primarily in passing
down situations. Ekeler himself isn’t getting enough touches
to be particularly fantasy relevant himself but he is digging
into Gordon’s workload which does lower floor a bit. The
Chiefs have given up at least one rushing score in seven of their
past eight games so Gordon looks like a pretty safe bet to have
a productive fantasy day.
Passing
Game Thoughts: After a one week explosion in Week 13 where
he threw for four scores against the Jets, Alex Smith reminded
us that he is still Alex Smith with a touchdown-less, garbage
fantasy day against a weak Oakland secondary in Week 14. It is
worth considering that Smith – and particularly tight end
Travis Kelce – were inches away from getting into the end
zone once, were very close to connecting in the end zone for another
score, and Kelce dropped a likely would-be touchdown against the
Raiders. Still, those points didn’t manifest on the scoreboard
so it was still a frustrating day for fantasy owners. Smith has
now thrown for one or zero touchdown passes in four of his past
six games and he’s thrown five interceptions in his past
five games after having none prior to that this season.
The positive is that this remains essentially a two receiver
passing game, with the aforementioned Kelce and young wide receiver
Tyreek Hill who is capable of going off for a big game at any
time. Hill caught five passes for 77 yards and a touchdown when
he faced the Chargers earlier this season while Kelce had by far
his worst game of the season – one catch for one yard. Still,
both players are must-starts in most formats even against a good
Los Angeles secondary that has done a good job of slowing down
opposing passing games as of late. The Chargers haven’t
given up more than one passing touchdown in a game since Week
5 so there’s not a huge upside here for Alex Smith, but
the fact that he essentially only throws to two players makes
both of those players very valuable in practically any matchup.
LAC FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.27
LAC FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.17
LAC FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.27
LAC FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.25
Running Game Thoughts: Kareem Hunt finally returned to being
the fantasy superstud that he was early in the season this past
week when he rushed for 116 yards and a touchdown while adding
three receptions for 22 yards against the Raiders. Hunt’s
fantasy production had been extremely frustrating prior to that
game but his on-field performance really wasn’t bad. It
was just a lack of usage from the Kansas City coaching staff that
led to some poor box scores from the rookie tailback. Certainly
one game doesn’t guarantee that Hunt is “back”
but it should give us some confidence in starting him against
a defense that he destroyed for a career-high 172 yards and a
touchdown back in Week 3. Los Angeles has been great against the
run as of late but they haven’t been playing against many
teams that have truly committed to the run. The Chiefs aren’t
typically in many shootouts at home which often leads to higher
workloads for Hunt. He’s a solid RB1 in this matchup.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Not many young quarterbacks are tagged with
being “safe” but Marcus Mariota’s ability to
avoid turnovers has been one of the best parts of his gameplay
style thus far in his career. That hasn’t been the case
this season, however, as Mariota has been one of the most turnover-prone
players in all of football. Mariota has thrown just 10 touchdown
passes this season while throwing 14 interceptions with six lost
fumbles. That could potentially be an acceptable stat line if
Mariota was throwing for 300-plus yards per game or rushing for
a ton of yardage, but he simply isn’t doing either of those
things. Only twice this season has Mariota eclipsed even 30 rushing
yards and he’s also only thrown for 300 yards twice. In
fact, he’s been held to 225 or fewer passing yards in seven
games this season, including each of his past three contests.
Needless to say, the fantasy shine is beginning to wear off on
Mariota, who has become nothing more than a low-end QB2 in most
matchups.
There are only two wide receivers in this offense who have much
fantasy relevance at all right now and even they aren’t
particularly intriguing due to a lack of usage. Rishard Matthews
is still trying to get back to full capacity after missing time
with injury while rookie Corey Davis has been unable to truly
break out even with Matthews out of the lineup. Both could be
utilized in this matchup against the 49ers if fantasy owners are
looking for a dart throw but neither represents much upside. The
only player in this passing game who is really interesting is
tight end Delanie Walker who continues to show that he is one
of the most consistent players at the position. Walker has caught
at least three passes in every game this season which is extremely
difficult to find at tight end and he has scored in two of his
past three games. The Titans passing game is ugly right now but
Walker is a player who can be trusted to at least produce some
decent numbers, especially in a bit of a “revenge”
game against his former team.
SF FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.4
SF FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.8
SF FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.14
SF FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.22
Running Game Thoughts: The Tennessee coaching staff continues
to display a complete lack of regard for actual production at
the running back position as they insist on feeding DeMarco Murray
(3.7 yards per carry) over Derrick Henry (4.9 yards per carry).
Murray played 84 percent of the Titans’ offense snaps this
past week while Henry was on the field for just 23 percent of
snaps. This irritating committee will likely continue in Week
15 as the Titans roll into yet another great matchup. DeMarco
Murray has been difficult to trust this season but he does have
some solid upside against a bad San Francisco run defense that
has given up the eight-most fantasy points to opposing backs this
season. They have been better as of late but a lot of that is
due to them facing some bad opposing running games.
The Titans, for all their faults, are still an offense that is
capable of putting up some big rushing numbers. If they are going
to go on the road and get a win, they will need to rely on Murray
and even Henry to wear down the 49er defense and eventually breakthrough
for some big plays. Murray is the preferred fantasy option here
because of his share of the backfield but it’s not necessarily
a bad idea to sneak Henry into your lineup as a Flex play, especially
in daily tournaments. He’s the type of player who could
be relied on to “close out” this game if the Titans
do get up more than one score late in the game, which could lead
to a higher-than-usual workload and thus some nice fantasy production.
Passing
Game Thoughts: It hasn’t been perfect but San Francisco
looks to have made a wise move in acquiring Jimmy Garoppolo from
the Patriots as the young quarterback has now thrown for an impressive
627 yards over his first two starts as a 49er. It’s been
difficult to figure out where the ball is going to go in this
passing game aside from one player – Marquise Goodwin, who
has stepped up in a big way since Pierre Garcon went down with
a season-ending injury. Goodwin has caught passes for at least
68 receiving yards in six of his past seven games. His production
with Garoppolo behind center has been different, however –
and in a good way. Rather than simply replying on beating defenses
over the top, Goodwin has caught a total of 14 passes for 205
yards over Garoppolo’s two starts. It’s still tough
to rely on Goodwin as more than a WR2 but he’s certainly
a player who’s capable of producing huge days in best ball
formats and he’s getting the most targets in this offense,
so his floor isn’t nearly as low as it once was. The Garoppolo-Goodwin
duo will be against a Tennessee defense that has given up the
12th-most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers this season
and they’ve allowed a whopping 18 different wide receivers
to catch seven or more passes against them in a single game so
far this season.
TEN FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.15
TEN FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.27
TEN FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.12
TEN FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.15
Running Game Thoughts: He’s only rushed for 100 yards once
this season but Carlos Hyde continues to produce decent enough
numbers that he’s a fantasy RB1 on the season. A big reason
for that is due to his increased usage in the passing game. He
failed to catch a pass for the first time this season this past
week against the Texans but Hyde has averaged 4.3 catches per
game – a huge jump from his previous career average prior
to 2017 when he averaged just under 1.5 receptions per game. The
increase of value for PPR has been obvious but his overall production
has been impressive when you consider the negative game script
that the 49ers have often found themselves in. This week Hyde
does have a tough matchup on paper as he’ll be against a
Tennessee Titans defense that has given up sixth-fewest fantasy
points to opposing running backs this season, and they’ve
given up just one touchdown to the position over their past four
games combined. Hyde is still a high-end RB2 in this matchup given
his high workload but don’t look for a big “boom”
game from him here.
Passing
Game Thoughts: The Rams and quarterback Jared Goff fell
in a shootout to the Eagles this past week but Goff continues
to produce solid fantasy numbers, largely due to his surprising
ability to protect the football. Goff has now thrown 22 touchdown
passes on the season with just six interceptions and that’s
helped keep him ranked as an overall fantasy QB1 in 2017. That
production hasn’t always led to big games – especially
not predictably big games – for his receivers, but it has
brought players like Robert Woods and Cooper Kupp into the fantasy
conversation. Kupp has been exceptionally productive while Woods
has been out, including two 100-plus yard receiving days as of
late, but Woods is trending toward playing this week which could
very well spell the end of Kupp’s WR1 fantasy upside. Don’t
look for Woods to immediately step back in as the obvious WR1
but his return is not helpful for either Kupp or Watkins who had
both produced fairly well while he was out. If anything, Woods’
return is a good thing for Goff but it does muddy the waters for
an already murky Rams receiver group.
The Rams passing game will be against a Seattle pass defense
that has been banged up and is not playing particularly well as
of late. This past week they gave up 268 yards and a pair of touchdowns
to Jacksonville’s Blake Bortles, while forcing no interceptions.
Goff might be overperforming his actual ability right now but
he’s still quite a bit better than Bortles, so there’s
reason for optimism in this matchup, especially now that Woods
is back.
SEA FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.23
SEA FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.28
SEA FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.8
SEA FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.20
Running Game Thoughts: The impressive bounceback season for Todd
Gurley continued this past week as he extended his lead on the
field as the highest-scoring running back in fantasy football.
Gurley rushed for 96 yards, caught three passes for 39 yards and
scored a pair of touchdowns in what was supposed to be a difficult
matchup against the Eagles. Gurley has now touched the ball at
least 16 times in every game this season. Needless to say, he’s
as matchup-proof as it comes right now. That’ll be challenged,
though, in Week 15, as he has another difficult matchup on paper
against a defense that held him to a season-low 5.0 fantasy points
(non-PPR) back in Week 5. Not only was that Gurley’s worst
fantasy day of the season, it was less than half of the fantasy
production that he’s had in any other game. Certainly that’s
concerning but it’s also a blip on the radar of an otherwise
exceptional season, and it came in a low-scoring game where neither
team was able to generate much offense. Both offenses have been
moving the ball at a great pace as of late so the shootout potential
is much higher in this one than it has been in any game between
these two seasons for perhaps the past decade or even longer.
Maybe Gurley doesn’t go for 150-plus yards and multiple
scores against Seattle but he’s still good enough to be
considered a solid RB1.
Passing
Game Thoughts: With Carson Wentz now out for the season,
the path for Russell Wilson to finish 2017 as the highest-scoring
player in fantasy football looks clear. Wilson has truly put the
Seattle offense on his back this season, accounting for all but
one touchdown that the offense has scored throughout the year.
He’s also thrown for multiple touchdowns in eight straight
games and 10 of his past 11 games overall after starting the year
off slow. Wilson’s rushing numbers have also been getting
back to the type of production that he was putting up early in
his career, which makes him even more valuable as not many other
top quarterbacks are capable of rushing for 40 yards per game.
Wilson’s top receiver, Doug Baldwin, has been more hit
or miss than most predicted he would be heading into the season
but he’s still a borderline WR1. Most will have him ranked
as a middle-of-the-road WR1 this week but I’m not sure that
his upside is particularly great against a Rams defense that held
him to just four catches for 37 yards in Week 5 – his second-worst
fantasy day of the season. That wasn’t just a one-time occurrence,
either. In fact, he’s been held to fewer than 45 receiving
yards in five of his past six games against the Rams. While I
still like Baldwin as a fantasy starter because the Seattle passing
game is doing so well overall, I’d be more likely to take
a chance on lower-priced options like Paul Richardson for daily
purposes. Richardson played every offensive snap for the Seahawks
in Week 15 and has clearly established himself as the second-best
wide receiver in this offense. The other potentially great option
is Jimmy Graham who had been one of the most dominant forces in
fantasy football prior to being held catchless this past week
against the Eagles. One poor game might be enough to keep Graham
out of some lineups but the Rams gave up three touchdowns to Philadelphia’s
tight ends this past week – and that was without Zach Ertz.
Graham is a dominant physical specimen and he’ll certainly
be a big part of the gameplan in what is a must-win game for the
Seahawks.
LAR FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.22
LAR FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.2
LAR FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.24
LAR FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.12
Running Game Thoughts: The Seattle running game might finally
be getting some consistency to it as the team has opted to give
Mike Davis the lead job in back-to-back weeks, leading to 16 and
15 carries. That doesn’t sound like a lot, but for a Seattle
offense that had practically completely given up on their running
game prior to that, it’s a huge step in the direction of
actually having a fantasy-relevant back. Davis hasn’t scored
a touchdown yet and he’s not doing anything spectacular
in the yards-per-carry category but he seems to have the confidence
of the coaching staff which cannot be said for any other back
on the roster. That all leads to speculation that Davis might
actually have some nice fantasy value in what could be the best
matchup he’ll see all season. The Rams have given up the
second-most fantasy points to opposing running backs and they’ve
conceded countless big fantasy days to the position. It’s
extremely difficult to trust any Seattle back but you could definitely
do worse if you’re in a tough situation here in the fantasy
playoffs.
Passing
Game Thoughts: It was a major struggle for Dak Prescott
owners for nearly a month but Prescott seems to be back on track
and leading his Cowboys back toward playoff contention. Prescott
has thrown five touchdowns over his past two games - both blowout
wins for the Cowboys - including a huge 332-yard day against the
Giants this past week. Now he gets a Raiders defense that has
mostly played against a who’s who of terrible starting quarterbacks
this season yet has still only forced a total of two interceptions
on the year. Prescott is typically great at avoiding turnovers
so this looks like a very safe time to fire him up as a middle-of-the-pack
QB1.
Wide receiver Dez Bryant has been dealing with an ankle injury
which has held him out of practice but he’s expected to
play and is coming off of back-to-back games with a touchdown,
although he still hasn’t eclipsed 100 yards in a game this
season. Bryant’s days as a high-end WR1 are likely in the
past but he’s still a physically imposing beast who is among
the best red zone threats in all of football. As such, he should
be in the low-end WR1 conversation in standard formats where his
touchdown-scoring skill set weighs most heavily. Tight end Jason
Witten is really the only other Dallas pass catcher who should
be in the fantasy conversation in this one as he has now scored
in back-to-back games, despite those being his only catches. Witten
isn’t much of a threat to go off anymore, either, but his
target share is typically fairly healthy which should allow him
to produce decent enough numbers to be in the low-end TE1 range.
OAK FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.16
OAK FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.13
OAK FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.17
OAK FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.9
Running Game Thoughts: Dallas’ final week without Ezekiel
Elliott will come in Week 15 as the Cowboys face a Raiders defense
that just gave up 141 total rushing yards and a touchdown each
to Kareem Hunt and Charcandrick West. The Raiders have actually
quietly been decent against opposing running backs this season
so this doesn’t look like the game where Alfred Morris finally
steps up and produces huge RB1 numbers, but it does look like
a game where both he and Rod Smith have the potential to be decent
fantasy options. Morris has been the workhorse back for the Cowboys
in Elliott’s absence, touching the ball an average of over
17 times per game over the past five weeks. While his production
isn’t anything amazing, he’s been decent enough most
weeks to be a reasonable RB2. Unfortunately, his limitations in
the passing game lead to him having a fairly low floor for a player
with that high of an overall workload, but it does allow Smith
to have a role in the offense. Smith has touched the ball an average
of over nine times per game while Elliott has been out and he
has scored a touchdown in three straight contests, including two
this past week against the Giants. Smith’s gigantic 160
yard day came on just 11 touches, however, so don’t expect
that type of production again in this matchup. Smith is a low-ceiling
player who does have the ability to score a goal line touchdown
or two but he’s not an Alvin Kamara-like satellite back
with the ability to touch the ball 20 times in a game.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Coming off of back-to-back disappointing
performances in two straight excellent matchups, it might be time
to stop discussing Derek Carr as even being in the discussion
as a QB1, regardless of matchup. The fall from grace we’ve
seen from Carr and the entire Oakland passing game this season
has been shocking and catastrophic for fantasy purposes, but it
just doesn’t look to be getting any better. Sure, a matchup
against a Cowboys defense that has given up 24 passing touchdowns
this season does sound great but it’s a worse statistical
matchup than either of the past two defenses he’s faced,
the Giants and the Chiefs. What’s worse is that Carr’s
struggles have translated over to his receivers, particularly
Amari Cooper who was projected by many to be one of the breakout
receivers this season and has now caught just one pass over his
past two games. This would typically be the kind of matchup that
we’d be marking on our calendars as a potential “boom”
game for Cooper but the level of distrust in the Oakland passing
game as a whole, combined with an ankle injury which has kept
him out of practice this week, has to make Cooper an extremely
risky option even as a Flex.
Crabtree, on the other hand, hasn’t scored since Week 7
but has been getting plenty of targets as of late, including 10
or more in three of his past four starts. That type of target
volume makes him at least a WR2, if not a low-end WR1 against
the Cowboys. Tight end Jared Cook continues to be one of the most
unpredictable players in all of fantasy football as he’s
seemingly struggled in many of his “good” matchups
while excelling in what we’d expect to be his “bad”
matchups. Still, Cook has to be considered a low-end TE1 because
the position as a whole is a trainwreck and the Cowboys have given
up four touchdowns to opposing tight ends over their past six
games.
DAL FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.11
DAL FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.18
DAL FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.5
DAL FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.13
Running Game Thoughts: Marshawn Lynch might have just had his
most efficient rushing day since returning to the league this
past week, but you wouldn’t know it by how often he touched
the ball against the Chiefs. Lynch got just seven carries, which
he took for 61 yards and a touchdown, in the Raiders’ road
loss to the Chiefs, which was particularly frustrating to watch
from a fantasy standpoint as Oakland let Derek Carr struggle his
way to a 24-of-41 day passing with only 211 yards through the
air. Lynch’s usage has been all over the place this season
which makes him a very unpredictable option and this week he’ll
face a Cowboys run defense that has not allowed a 100-yard rusher
since Week 5 while allowing just six rushing touchdowns on the
season. Still, Oakland has seemingly been willing to give him
the ball near the goal line lately as he’s scored five rushing
touchdowns over his past four games, so he’s capable of
making his fantasy owners happy with a single goal line touchdown.
Lynch is a middle-of-the-road RB2 in this matchup because we don’t
know what his usage will be, especially if the Raiders fall behind
on the scoreboard.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Typically, I will look back on what’s
transpired over the season to help analyze the upcoming week’s
game. That will be of no use for the Eagles. 2017 has been the
year of the injured quarterback. Carson Wentz is the latest to
fall as he tore his left ACL in last week’s narrow win over
the Rams. Enter Nick Foles, a man who was briefly the greatest
quarterback of all time during a miracle 2013 run. Foles is one
of the more competent backups in the league. He made one lengthy
relief appearance and one start for Alex Smith in 2016 and threw
three touchdowns against zero interceptions over those two outings.
He was a disaster with the Rams in 2015, but we can’t hold
anything a player does with Jeff Fisher against him.
Foles can keep Alshon Jeffery and Zach Ertz producing. Since
week 8, Jeffery has been a touchdown scoring machine, averaging
one per game. Ertz didn’t play last week as he was still
experiencing headaches Sunday morning. Trey Burton started in
Ertz’s place and performed like an elite TE1 because Burton
is immensely talented and should start somewhere in 2018. Ertz
should be back this week and will resume his normal spot in your
lineup. Nelson Agholor saw a whopping 11 targets last week after
seeing 12 the week before. I still don’t think he’s
particularly good at football, but the Giants have completely
given up. It’s hard to know what Agholor’s rapport
will be with Foles, if any, but I can’t deny that he’s
been worth a WR3 start. My only caution would be that historically,
the number two WR suffers the most from a backup QB being forced
into action.
NYG FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.1
NYG FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.4
NYG FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.10
NYG FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.1
Running Game Thoughts: Jay Ajayi led the Eagles backfield last
week, but still didn’t do much for fantasy. He posted 78
empty yards on 15 carries. He was efficient, but more so for the
Eagles than fantasy owners. Such has been the story for the Eagles
rushing attack this season – great for real life, bad for
fantasy. LeGarrette Blount was mostly an afterthought last week
and Corey Clement was not heavily involved despite the Eagles
throwing 51 passes. This rushing attack remains what it has been
all season – a three headed monster that you cannot predict
or trust for fantasy.
Passing
Game Thoughts: The Giants went back to Eli Manning for
respect reasons because the Giants care more about public image
than fielding a competitive football team. I do think Manning
gives them the best chance to win, but they should not be concerning
themselves with winning games in 2017. Davis Webb deserves a look
but he’s not getting one this week. Manning will continue
his downward spiral after throwing for 228 yards, one touchdown,
and two interceptions against Dallas last week. Evan Engram led
the Giants in receiving with 54 yards while Sterling Shepard was
bottled up. Manning did a whole lot of dumping the ball off to
his running backs and rarely attempted to stretch the field, mostly
because he can’t do it anymore. Shepard remains in play
this week as we are not going to abandon him based on one bad
game. Engram has been mostly solid all season and given the pathetic
state of the TE position in fantasy, it’s doubtful you have
a better option. Roger Lewis led the team with 11 targets last
week, but he only managed 46 yards on his seven receptions. I
would not go chasing those targets.
PHI FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.20
PHI FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.32
PHI FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.19
PHI FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.18
Running Game Thoughts: Interim head
coach Steve Spagnuolo gave rookie Wayne Gallman an extra push
last week. Gallman led the Giants with 12 carries and also with
seven receptions. Orleans Darkwa was still around and saw 10 carries
himself. I do think there will be more of an effort to get Gallman
the ball going forward just to see what he can do. Gallman is
nothing special, but he’s probably the Giants best back
on the roster (which is more of an indictment of the roster).
For those running back starved, Gallman is a dart throw flex play,
but you’d be chasing yards and receptions with low touchdown
potential. Darkwa can no longer be considered an option.
Passing
Game Thoughts: What did Blaine Gabbert do last week? Just
enough. The Cardinals won a game without scoring a touchdown.
With Gabbert only throwing for 178 yards, Larry Fitzgerald was
held in check. He still led the team with five receptions on seven
targets for 44 yards, but fantasy owners would like more out of
their ageless WR. With no other options in the passing game, Fitz
has a great bounce back spot this week. Although Josh Norman and
Bashaud Breeland are one of the best corner duos in the league,
Fitz will mostly avoid them running his routes out of the slot.
The Redskins have been floundering of late, but this is a game
where they should be able to get a lead and at least force the
Cardinals to call more than 26 pass plays. TE Ricky Seals-Jones
has been a surprise this season, but his usefulness has expired.
He is still playing around 15-20 snaps per game, which is not
enough to sustain fantasy value. Even with the TE waiver wire
devoid of all talent, you can do better than RSJ. J.J. Nelson
and both J. Browns have no fantasy value.
WAS FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.12
WAS FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.11
WAS FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.22
WAS FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.2
Running Game Thoughts: With Adrian
Peterson a combination of old and injured, Kerwynn Williams has
been given all the carries he can handle. He performed well two
weeks ago, but stumbled last week, rushing for 73 yards on 20
carries. Williams is a fine replacement player and worthy of the
type of role he has on the Cardinals. He’s a volume play
that you hope falls into the end zone or, if not, generates enough
yardage to at least not kill you. D.J. Foster is not seeing enough
work in the passing game to be useful even in PPR leagues.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Kirk Cousins was a flat out disaster last
week. He threw for a season low 151 yards and was lucky to at
least throw a touchdown to salvage something out of his day. Cousins
attempted a season low 27 passes in a game his team trailed wire
to wire. At home against the Cardinals is more favorable spot,
but I would still not feel confident using Cousins this week.
His wide receivers aren’t much better. Josh Doctson is still
the number one guy, but he’s posted 34 yards or fewer in
four of his last five games. If he doesn’t score, he’s
not very helpful. Jamison Crowder’s numbers have fallen
off significantly the past two weeks. With Patrick Peterson locking
up Doctson, this is the type of game where Crowder should be asked
to do more. He is also not someone you can play confidently, but
he’s someone you can at least play. Jordan Reed was mercifully
placed on IR, ending yet another lost season for the talented
TE. I am no longer interested in ever owning Reed in fantasy.
His replacement has been Vernon Davis, who might as well not be
playing. Davis caught a touchdown last week, his first since Week
3, but still is just a miniscule part of the passing attack. Way
back in week 10, he caught seven passes. Since then, he’s
caught seven passes. He is not an option.
ARI FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.7
ARI FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.26
ARI FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.13
ARI FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.16
Running Game Thoughts: Samaje Perine is one of the safer plays
at the position. His volume floor is incredibly high and even
more so now that Byron Marshall has been lost for the season.
The Redskins have something called a LeShun Daniels behind Perine
as well as the recently signed Kapri Bibbs. Perine is going to
see all the work he can handle and this game projects very nicely
for over 20 touches with positive game script. Perine has looked
very good since taking over as the main back, but often hasn’t
had space to run nor time to do it with the Redskins trailing
so quickly. After carrying the ball 23 and 24 times in his first
two games as starter, he’s handled 12 and 17 carries in
the two games since. This shapes up as another 20-carry game.
Perine has an RB2 floor based on volume with RB1 upside if he
can find his way into the end zone.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Jay Cutler just beat Tom Brady. That’s
a real thing that happened. And his team didn’t just win,
Cutler severely outplayed Brady. If you told me they had switched
bodies…well I still wouldn’t have believed it because
even Jay Cutler isn’t typically anywhere near as bad as
Brady was last week. I digress. Cutler and the Dolphins travel
to ice cold Buffalo in a huge game for both teams’ playoff
chances. Realistically, the loser of this game is out. Cutler
completed all eight of his passes to Jarvis Landry as well as
two of his three touchdowns. Landry continues to be incredibly
inefficient, somehow managing just 46 yards on eight receptions,
but the PPR fantasy production has been there all season. I see
no reason for that to change this week. You can fire up Landry
and continue ignoring DeVante Parker, who should be owned in about
0% of fantasy leagues. He is one of the most overrated players
in NFL history because of how good people, to this day, think
he is, compared with how terrible he’s always been. I prefer
Kenny Stills to Parker, but Stills wasn’t involved much
last week either. However, if there were ever a week for him to
notch another splash play, it’s this week. Julius Thomas
is a desperation option at TE. He won’t get you zero and
there’s a shot he can score, but if he doesn’t, you’re
not getting much.
BUF FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.29
BUF FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.1
BUF FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.28
BUF FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.14
Running Game Thoughts: Breaking
news: Kenyan Drake is an RB1. I’ve mistakenly had him as
an RB2 and even a Flex for far too long. I knew he would be useful
because of volume, but did not realize how useful he would be
because of pure talent. Drake has never been a feature back in
his entire career – not since high school. Now, he is and
he is thriving. Drake handled 30 touches last week, 25 on the
ground and five in the air for a total of 183 yards. Drake led
the team in rushing and receiving. It would not surprise me if
he did so again. He is an adept catcher of the football and very
capable in open space. Although the Dolphins are underdogs, this
projects as a competitive game rendering game script a nonissue
for Drake. I can’t imagine many fantasy owners with backfields
where they would even consider sitting Drake. Damien Williams’
return to a limited practice on Thursday is of no concern. This
is the Drake show now.
Passing
Game Thoughts: We can take last week’s Bills game
and ignore everything we saw from the passing game. Players could
barely see ten feet in front of them in the blizzard they played
through. Nate Peterman started, but did not finish after a jarring
hit. Joe Webb took over, but Peterman practiced in full on Thursday
and should be ready to go Sunday either as the starter or backing
up Tyrod Taylor. Right now, I’d tentatively expect Taylor
to start, but that it is no guarantee. Regardless of Taylor’s
status, I would not go near any Bills pass catchers for the fantasy
semifinal. Kelvin Benjamin is the only one to consider and he’s
banged up as well. He left last week’s game early and although
he practiced on a limited basis this week, he wasn’t a great
option at full strength. He did somehow catch a touchdown last
week, reminding us that he’s always a threat in the red
zone. Zay Jones and Deonte Thompson are not fantasy options. Charles
Clay is intriguing if for no other reason than there are very
few reliable TEs this season. Clay hasn’t done anything
of note since Week 4. He’s nothing more than a desperation
play.
MIA FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.19
MIA FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.10
MIA FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.25
MIA FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.6
Running Game Thoughts: LeSean McCoy loves home cooking. Even a
foot of snow couldn’t slow him down as he rumbled for 156
yards last week. Shady has played exceptionally well at home this
season, which is great for fantasy owners in what I consider the
most important week of the season. Although his reception numbers
have been down, McCoy’s touch floor remains very high and
he should catch more than the zero passes he caught last week
given that the weather will be significantly better. He is at
no risk of being game-scripted out. With at least 90 yards rushing
in five of his seven home games, Shady is an elite RB1 in semifinal
week.