Packers at Seahawks - (Caron)

Passing Game Thoughts: 2013 was a bit of a lost season for former NFL league MVP Aaron Rodgers, who for all intents and purposes missed half of the regular season with an injury. Rodgers did return in Week 17 and even played in the team’s lone playoff game, but he was clearly not 100-percent when he stepped back on the field. Now with an entire offseason to get healthy and prepare for the 2014 season, Rodgers looks poised for another monster season in Green Bay. Wide receiver James Jones, who led the league with 12 touchdown receptions in 2012, is now off in Oakland, but the team’s top two receivers - Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb - flew off most fantasy draft boards within the first few rounds. This is a dynamic passing offense built on efficiency which is why Rodgers is the owner of the best career touchdown-to-interception ratio of any player in the history of the league...and no one is really even close. Rodgers’ incredible ability to make plays, especially in the red zone, makes him a must-start no matter the opponent. There were many drafts this offseason where Rodgers was the first quarterback that came off the board, and for good reason. While Peyton Manning is coming off of the best season of any quarterback ever, Rodgers is the younger player who arguably has the higher ceiling, especially considering that he also contributes on the ground.

Although fantasy owners should not consider benching Rodgers against any opponent at the moment, if there were one defense to be a bit worried about, it would certainly be that of the Seattle Seahawks. Seattle’s secondary turned in one of the greatest seasons we have seen in recent memory this past year, as they allowed just 15 touchdowns against them over the course of the regular season while intercepting a league-most 28 passes. Brandon Browner, who missed eight games in 2013, is now in New England, but the core of the Seattle secondary remains; including safeties Kam Chancellor and Earl Thomas, along with the league’s top cornerback Richard Sherman. History is not in the Packers’ quarterback’s favor as the only time Rodgers has faced a Pete Carroll defense in the NFL was back in 2010 when the unit wasn’t nearly as good as it is now and they still held him to just 223 yards and no touchdowns. You certainly don’t draft a player like Aaron Rodgers to sit him down in Week 1, but those playing weekly fantasy football games would be wise to look elsewhere for production on opening weekend. Seattle’s defense is a scary unit capable of limiting even the best of offenses, as we saw in Super Bowl XL.

Running Game Thoughts: An excellent rookie year from Green Bay Packers running back Eddie Lacy has the hype train in full motion as we start the 2014 NFL season. Lacy’s 1,300-plus total yards and 11 total touchdowns made him a top five pick in most drafts, but it’s his potential as one of the few remaining “bell cow” running backs in the league that makes him even more exciting. While many of Lacy’s best games came when the team was relying heavily on him due to the injury to Rodgers, the reality is that a healthy Rodgers return can really only serve to the team more opportunities to score overall, meaning an added touchdown probability for Lacy. The total number of touches (319 in 2013) might actual go down this season, but that shouldn’t dissuade fantasy owners from trusting him, because the quality of those touches should get better, making Lacy as close of a lock to being a top-10 fantasy back this season as any player in the league.

With the Seattle secondary being the stars of the team, it’s might come as a bit of a surprise that the Seahawks were also excellent against the run during their Super Bowl winning season of 2013. The unit allowed fewer than 3.8 yards per carry throughout the year and a total of just five touchdowns to opposing running backs for the entire season. Worse yet, the team held opposing running backs to fewer than 50 rushing yards in half of their games. Still, even given this chilling statline, running the ball might be Green Bay’s best chance to win the opening game of 2014. Seattle loves to control the ball and the clock and I would expect to see quite a few draw plays to Lacy as the Packers try to spread this Seattle defense out before cramming the ball down their throats. If they can consistently move the ball on the ground and pick up first downs, the “12th Man” may be at least partially negated. Look for Lacy to touch the ball over 20 times on opening night, which makes him a must-start even in a tough matchup.

Projections:
Aaron Rodgers: 220 pass yds, 1 TD, 1 INT, 15 rush yds
Eddie Lacy: 80 rush yds, 1 TD, 20 rec yds
Jordy Nelson: 60 rec yds, 1 TD
Randall Cobb: 55 rec yds
Jarrett Boykin: 30 rec yds
Richard Rodgers: 25 rec yds

Passing Game Thoughts: Having spent his first two seasons as the league’s most efficient game manager, many are predicting a breakout season for Super Bowl XL-winning quarterback Russell Wilson. Since Wilson entered the league, no team has passed fewer times or run more times than Seattle. Even given that horrifying statistic, Wilson has finished as a borderline top-10 fantasy quarterback in each season. Wilson’s 52-to-19 touchdown-to-interception ratio is immaculate and he is also one of the league’s best runners from the quarterback position, having rushed for over 1,000 yards and five scores in his two years as Seattle’s signal caller. While his former favorite target Golden Tate is now in Detroit, Wilson should now have an opportunity to pass to one of the league’s most dynamic playmakers in Percy Harvin, who essentially missed the entire 2013 regular season. While Harvin is always a risk to go down with another injury, when he is on the field, there is no question that he can make even a bad quarterback look good at times. Wilson will look to Harvin early and often, and could establish one of the league’s finest passing combinations this season. Even if Harvin does get hurt, Wilson has proven that he does not need premiere wide receivers in order to put up solid, efficient numbers. I look for him to pass more times than he ever has this season as Seattle looks to become a more balanced offense.

On the defensive side of the ball, Green Bay could be in some serious trouble in this matchup. While it’s a new season and the team has made some personnel changes, the Packers were awful against the pass in 2013. Opposing quarterbacks threw for at least 200 yards against them in all but three games and the Packers conceded two or more passing touchdowns in 11 of their 16 games, including five straight to close out the regular season. While the Green Bay secondary itself does have some talented players, there may not be a player on the team who is capable of keeping up with a healthy Percy Harvin. All reports are that Harvin is healthy and looking great heading into this opening game, so his connection with Russell Wilson and his overall usage in the offense will be the focal point of our fantasy attention in this game. If Harvin is able to shake off the rust of essentially missing an entire season, look for him to be a huge weapon for Wilson, even in Week 1. Wilson may only be a low-end QB1 option for this game and Harvin is a risky WR2 with a high potential, but Seattle’s offense as a whole should do fairly well in this contest.

Running Game Thoughts: Since coming to Seattle midway through the 2010 season, few players have been more productive from a fantasy standpoint than running back Marshawn Lynch. Lynch has scored double-digit touchdowns in each of his three full seasons in Seattle, including a career-high 14 scores with nearly 1,600 total yards in 2013. At 28 years old and with nearly 2,000 pro touches on his body, some fantasy experts are predicting that “Beast Mode” may be in for a slide in 2013. Russell Wilson will almost certainly be trusted to pass more this season, the Seattle offensive line is still a makeshift unit and the emergence of young backs like Christine Michael have to give us some hesitation about his long-term outlook as an elite RB. But in Week 1, Lynch remains a rock solid RB1 for fantasy purposes. Try not to let the fantasy pundits concern you at this time. Until we see fantasy outputs that tell us otherwise, there is little reason to be worried and Lynch should be in any and all fantasy lineups.

If you do have worries about Lynch heading into the season, allow the following numbers to help alleviate that stress for at least one week. In the final nine games of the regular season, opposing teams’ running backs averaged 146 yards on the ground and scored nine rushing touchdowns against the Packers defense. While the addition of Julius Peppers may give this defense a bit of an increase in pass-rushing, the loss of nose tackle B.J. Raji to a season-ending biceps tear may be one of the most under-the-radar, yet devastating blows that any team has suffered so far this season. Former Minnesota Vikings defensive tackle Letroy Guion will step in for Raji, playing a new position on a defense that does not have great personnel around him on the defensive line. Guion will be responsible for clogging up the middle of the defense, which is where Lynch primarily makes his money as grind-it-out runner. The Packers’ ability to slow down Lynch rests very heavily on whether or not Guion, whom we’ve only seen play a few snaps at the position in the preseason, can at least be serviceable in his new role. If he struggles, look for Lynch to crack 100 yards on the ground and have a great shot to get into the end zone in what could end up being a fairly typical Seattle Seahawks victory at home.

Projections:
Russell Wilson: 220 pass yds, 1 TD, 25 rush yds
Marshawn Lynch: 90 rush yds, 2 TD, 10 rec yds
Robert Turbin: 20 rush yds
Percy Harvin: 75 rec yds, 1 TD
Doug Baldwin: 50 rec yds
Jermaine Kearse: 40 rec yds
Zach Miller: 30 rec yds

Prediction: Seahawks 27, Packers 20 ^ Top

Vikings @ Rams - (Caron)

Passing Game Thoughts: Despite drafting the perceived “quarterback of the future” in Teddy Bridgewater this April, the Minnesota Vikings will head into the 2014 NFL season with Matt Cassel behind center. The veteran signal-caller started a total of six games for the Vikings in 2013, including each of the final four games of the season. While his numbers were less-than-stellar, he is likely the safer choice for the Vikings to start the season with, as Bridgewater continues to learn the offense on the sidelines. One player who is excited to have Cassel back is second-year receiver Cordarrelle Patterson. Patterson is a big-time playmaker who scored three touchdowns in the final four games of the season; all of which were thrown to him by Cassel. A new offense under the direction of Norv Turner should also mean good things for tight end Kyle Rudolph. Turner has been known to get excellent production out of the tight end position, including Antonio Gates and Jordan Cameron. Look for Rudolph to step up his production in the Vikings offense and possibly threaten to become a top-five fantasy tight end this season.

In Week 1, Matt Cassel and the Vikings will have their hands full against one of the league’s most underrated defenses, the St. Louis Rams. The Rams defensive line is one of the best in the league, particularly when it comes to getting after the quarterback. Robert Quinn turned in a monster season with 19 sacks in 2013 and he only seems to be getting better. This pass rush was the primary reason that St. Louis finished inside the top-10 in terms of fewest fantasy points allowed to opposing quarterbacks in 2013. The defense allowed more than two passing touchdowns just one time over the course of the entire season. Although Cassel cannot be forgotten about, this doesn’t seem like a great recipe for big fantasy numbers in Week 1.

Running Game Thoughts: Another year, another top five fantasy selection for Minnesota running back Adrian Peterson. Peterson has fully cemented himself as a staple of fantasy football championship squads and there is no reason he won’t continue that production. Peterson has finished with over 1,200 rushing yards in six of his first seven years as a pro. The only season he didn’t reach that number was 2011 when he missed four games due to injury. In addition to the rushing yardage, Peterson has also been a fantasy superstar due to his uncanny ability to get into the end zone. He has scored double-digit touchdowns in every year of his career and looks like as good of a bet as anyone to repeat that in 2014. If there has been one thing that fantasy owners have been missing from Peterson, it has been production in the passing game. While he’s not terrible in that area, Peterson has not regularly produced at a high level as a pass-catcher like many of the other top running backs do. Fortunately for fantasy owners, the new Norv Turner offense may actually increase Peterson’s production in the receiving game. He’ll likely never be a 60-catch per season type of player, but if he can reach 45, he will give fantasy owners something extra to be excited about this season.

As good as St. Louis was against the pass in 2013, they were equally as bad against the run. The team conceded nearly 1,500 rushing yards against them on the year and a total of 20 touchdowns to opposing running backs on the season. Needless to say, this should make fantasy owners of Peterson very happy as we head into Week 1. Given the lack of firepower on the St. Louis side of the ball, Minnesota should have an opportunity to run the ball plenty of times, which should mean 20-25 touches for Peterson. Even if St. Louis knows it’s coming, it’s tough to stop. Peterson is almost always a reliable RB1 for fantasy purposes, but this week is particularly delicious. He’s one of the strongest fantasy plays in the league this week and should be started in all scoring formats.

Projections:
Matt Cassel: 175 pass yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
Adrian Peterson: 110 rush yds, 2 TD, 20 rec yds
Cordarrelle Patterson: 70 rec yds
Greg Jennings: 30 rec yds
Kyle Rudolph: 35 rec yds, 1 TD

Passing Game Thoughts: An unfortunate preseason injury has cost former No. 1 overall pick Sam Bradford his entire season, leaving the Rams in a tough situation at the quarterback position for the second straight year. The team will now turn to veteran signal caller Shaun Hill for the 2013 season. Hill, who hasn’t started a game since the 2010 season as a member of the Detroit Lions, does not exactly inspire fantasy owners’ faith in this offense, particularly the passing game itself. This hodgepodge group of receivers is underwhelming, especially given the lack of production that we saw from 2013 first round NFL draft pick Tavon Austin. We really don’t know who is going to step up - if anyone. As crazy as it might sound, one player to look out for in Week 1 is former Tennessee Titans receiver Kenny Britt. Britt, who had an awful end to his tenure in Tennessee, has been reunited with the coach who drafted him in Jeff Fisher, and has been the only receiver who has consistently ran with the No. 1 offense this offseason. Britt has the physical capability to return to fantasy relevance, but he will really need to put his mind to it. Try to avoid trusting anyone in this passing game for Week 1, but make sure that you pay attention to how Shaun Hill opts to ration out the targets. It could give us great insight going forward.

Running Game Thoughts: If there’s one player who fantasy owners will be relying on in this St. Louis offense, it’s second-year running back Zac Stacy. After being buried on the depth chart early in 2013, Stacy broke out and finished the season as a top-10 fantasy running back over the final 12 games of the year. Now firmly locked in as the feature back, Stacy will look to pick up where he left off a season ago. He’ll have an opportunity for a big game in Week 1 as he and the Rams host a Minnesota Vikings defense that conceded the eighth-most fantasy points to opposing running backs in 2013. They gave up nearly 1,400 rushing yards over the course of the season while also giving up a total of 16 touchdowns to the running back position on the year. Jeff Fisher is known for feeding his running backs and this game looks like a recipe for plenty of touches for Stacy. As long as the Rams offense can keep them in this game, there’s no reason to think that Stacy won’t see 20-25 touches, which makes him a must-start for those who drafted him.

Projections:
Shaun Hill: 170 pass yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
Zac Stacy: 90 rush yds, 2 TD, 10 rec yds
Kenny Britt: 50 rush yds
Tavon Austin: 45 rec yds
Chris Givens: 40 rec yds
Jared Cook: 30 rec yds, 1 TD

Prediction: Rams 27, Vikings 24 ^ Top

Chargers at Cardinals - (Caron)

Passing Game Thoughts: It was a rough two years from 2011 through 2012 for the Chargers’ Philip Rivers. In fact, after compiling just an 88.6 QB rating over those two seasons, rumblings of a potential replacement for the former Pro Bowler had started entering the 2013 season. But a new offense put together by offensive coordinator Ken Whisenhunt revitalized what was a sinking career, as Rivers threw for nearly 4,500 yards and 32 touchdowns with only 11 interceptions despite the lack of options he had in the receiving game. Fantasy owners have certainly taken notice of Rivers’ bounceback season, but appear to be largely skeptical that he can do it again as Whisenhunt has now departed San Diego for a head-coaching job with the Tennessee Titans. The team has since promoted quarterbacks coach Frank Reich to the offensive coordinator role which should mean that the offense remains relatively similar to what it was in 2013, but there is little question that second-year wide receiver Keenan Allen will need to take the next step forward and become a top-10 pass-catcher if this team hopes to repeat its offensive successes from a season ago. Allen, a third-round pick in 2013, enters the season as the Chargers’ only truly reliable wide receiver. Malcom Floyd will be making his return to the field in Week 1 after missing almost the entire 2013 season with a spinal cord injury and Eddie Royal is a veteran who can contribute from time to time, but neither player offers much in the way of fantasy value at this point in the season.

While Allen may be the team’s top receiving option for the season, one of the sneaky fantasy plays for Week 1 actually comes from the tight end position. The Chargers will be up against an Arizona Cardinals defense that played well overall in 2013, but were absolutely atrocious against opposing tight ends. The Arizona defense allowed the most catches (97), most yards (1,227) and most touchdowns (17) to opposing tight ends in 2013. Yes, they were that bad. This could mean great things for the duo of Antonio Gates and up-and-comer Ladarius Green who could exploit this depleted defense. The hype is certainly strong for Green, who has shown flashes of brilliance throughout his short NFL career, but Gates remains the team’s every down tight end for the foreseeable future. He may be slowing down at 34 years old, but as shown by the 872 yards he put up in 2013, he can still hurt defenses. Look for both players to be targeted this week in what might be the best matchup they get all season.

Running Game Thoughts: Along with the resurgence of Philip Rivers came perhaps the coming out party for former first round NFL draft pick Ryan Mathews, who finally lived up to expectations with a productive season where he actually played in every game. The fifth-year player comes into the 2014 season as the team’s top back on the depth chart, but that doesn’t mean that third down back Danny Woodhead doesn’t have value. While Woodhead didn’t see double-digit carries in any game a season ago, he was within five-to-nine carries in all but one game (Week 1). Not only that, but Woodhead established himself as one of the game’s elite points-per-reception running back options out of the backfield as he caught 76 passes; good for second-most among all players at the position in 2013. The addition of former Indianapolis Colts running back Donald Brown has some fantasy owners scratching their heads, but all reports seem to be that he will be used sparingly early in the season and is primarily an insurance policy for Mathews, who has dealt with countless injuries in the past.

Whether it’s Mathews, Woodhead or Brown who touch the ball, though, this Week 1 matchup against the Arizona Cardinals is not going to be an easy one. The Cardinals allowed the fewest fantasy points to opposing running backs of any team in 2013. In fact, they were the only defense that allowed fewer than 1,000 rushing yards to the position on the year, while also allowing only four rushing touchdowns all season. Those looking for some optimism, however, can point to the fact that this Cardinals defense is a significantly more depleted than the one that crushed opposing runners a season ago. Darnell Dockett’s torn ACL could very well change the entire Arizona defense and that should mean more opportunities for running backs to put up some fantasy numbers against them. This is still a tough defense no matter how you slice it, but there is hope if Mathews can get 10 or more carries and possibly a goal line carry or two.

Projections:
Philip Rivers: 280 pass yds, 2 TD, 1 INT
Ryan Mathews: 50 rush yds, 10 rec yds
Danny Woodhead: 20 rush yds, 40 rec yds
Keenan Allen: 55 rec yds, 1 TD
Malcom Floyd: 40 rec yds
Eddie Royal: 25 rec yds
Antonio Gates: 50 rec yds, 1 TD
Ladarius Green: 30 rec yds

Passing Game Thoughts: While the arm is still there, former No. 1 overall NFL draft pick Carson Palmer’s decision-making has been in question for quite a few seasons now. Since 2010, Palmer has thrown 72 interceptions with only touchdowns as a member of the Bengals, Raiders and now Cardinals. While his 4,274 passing yards were a career high, Palmer himself cannot be relied on as a reliable week-to-week fantasy quarterback. That doesn’t mean, however, that he can’t make his receivers fantasy relevant. After a disappointing 2012 season where he failed to reach 800 receiving yards and scored only four touchdowns, Larry Fitzgerald bounced back in 2013 with Palmer at the helm, making 10 touchdown receptions while adding 954 yards receiving. Fitzgerald showed that he still has the skills to be at least a WR2 in fantasy football, but he still has the potential to be a WR1 if he can get a little more consistency from his quarterback. In addition to Fitzgerald’s resurgence was a breakout season for former first round NFL draft pick Michael Floyd, who led the team with 1,041 receiving yards and added five touchdowns of his own. Floyd, a big-bodied receiver with an incredibly high ceiling, has been the favorite target for Palmer as he looks deep in the vertical-attacking Bruce Arians offense. Both Fitzgerald and Floyd should be looked at as startable fantasy wide receivers in Week 1 as they go up against a San Diego Chargers secondary that was terrible against opposing wide receivers a season ago. The Chargers allowed at least 13 points (standard-scoring) to opposing wide receivers in 15 of their 16 games in 2013, with the only exception being the horrible Oakland Raiders receivers. With running back Andre Ellington hobbled with a foot injury, look for the Cardinals to come out throwing, which should mean good things for this dynamic wide receiver duo.

Running Game Thoughts: With Rashard Mendenhall now retired, the Cardinals have fully invested themselves in second-year running back Andre Ellington. Ellington, who broke the 1,000 total yard barrier despite starting only one game for the team in his rookie season, possesses dynamic playmaking ability from the running back position, especially in the passing game. The biggest question about Ellington doesn’t seem to be his skills, but rather his ability to stay healthy. He missed time due to injuries in college at Clemson and has been bothered by a foot injury this preseason which required an MRI on Thursday. The tests won’t be back until Saturday so fantasy owners will have to wait and see what the results are before making a lineup decision this weekend. The Cardinals do play on Monday night, which could end up creating a frustrating situation, as he may very well be listed as “questionable” even if the results come back negative. The foot injury may be enough for some fantasy owners to sit him, but if he does play and is not significantly hobbled by the injury, this could be a nice matchup for him in his first start of the 2014 season. While the Chargers started off 2013 with seven straight games without allowing a rushing touchdown, the car came off the track in the team’s final nine games as opposing running backs gashed them for an average of 93 yards rushing while scoring a total of 12 rushing touchdowns. If Ellington is unable to play, look for the team to cycle through a few backs, thus making none of them a particularly tantalizing fantasy option for Week 1. Jonathan Dwyer would likely get the majority of work on first and second down, while Robert Hughes and Stepfan Taylor could see work in certain situations.

Projections:
Carson Palmer: 240 pass yds, 2 TD, 2 INT
Andre Ellington: 50 rush yds, 40 rec yds
Michael Floyd: 80 rec yds, 1 TD
Larry Fitzgerald: 50 rec yds, 1 TD
John Carlson: 30 rec yds

Prediction: Cardinals 20, Chargers 17 ^ Top

Titans at Chiefs - (Caron)

Passing Game Thoughts: After being considered a bust by many NFL analysts heading into the 2013 season, former first round draft pick Jake Locker started the season on fire, leading the Titans to a 3-1 record while tossing six touchdowns and no interceptions. Then came another injury. Locker, who has not yet started more than 11 games in a season, would miss two games, play in three others, before finally being shut down. Many in Tennessee still have high hopes for their perceived franchise quarterback, but the writing may be on the wall for a replacement if he cannot stay healthy and produce at a decent level this season. If Locker is going to succeed, however, this might be the best opportunity he has had yet in his NFL career. New head coach Ken Whisenhunt is coming to the team having just rejuvenated the career of Philip Rivers in San Diego and he has his sights set on turning around Locker’s career as well. Not only should this new offense mean good things for Locker, but the emergence of two young wide receivers in Kendall Wright and Justin Hunter has some predicting a breakout season for the quarterback in 2014. Wright, who finished seventh in the NFL in receptions in 2013 with 94, is already considered one of the best possession receivers in the league. Hunter, on the other hand, showed flashes of his incredible talent in his rookie season, but has really come on in training camp and the preseason for the Titans; even drawing praise from some for his “Randy Moss-like” skills as a deep threat.

While it’s tough to head into the season with too high of expectations for an offense that hasn’t put up great passing numbers in quite a long time, their Week 1 test against the Kansas City Chiefs could prove to be an interesting barometer to see just how much they have improved. Kansas City started the 2013 season with an incredible stretch, having allowed just nine passing touchdowns to opposing quarterbacks in their first nine games of the season, but could not keep up that pace. They proceeded to allow 15 passing touchdowns against them over the final six games of the season. Now without their top cornerback from a season ago in Brandon Flowers, who is in San Diego, the Chiefs secondary looks like a shell of its former self. Look for the Titans to test them early and often in this game, likely giving Hunter at least two opportunities at deep passes before the game is over.

Running Game Thoughts: It has been years since any other running back in the Tennessee Titans offense has been fantasy relevant, but with Chris Johnson now in New York, now is the time for someone else to step up. Rookie running back Bishop Sankey has been targeted by fantasy owners as the new lead back in Tennessee with veteran Shonn Greene likely to play a backup role, but that’s not how things have gone thus far. Sankey is actually listed as the team’s No. 2 running back on the depth chart heading into Week 1, behind Greene and ahead of newcomer Dexter McCluster. While the depth chart doesn’t always mean what we think it means, it is worth noting that Sankey does not seem to have the full confidence of the coaching staff early in the season. This, of course, brings headaches to those who drafted Sankey as an RB2 or FLEX who were hoping to get production early in the season from the young ball-carrier. Unfortunately, without access to the Titans gameplan for Week 1, it will be almost impossible to predict what will happen regarding the Titans’ running back situation. Combine that with the fact that they will be up against a Kansas City defense that allowed just eight rushing touchdowns in 2013 and you have a recipe for some potentially frustrating fantasy numbers. Neither Greene nor Sankey is a particularly exciting fantasy option heading into this game, but Sankey is the guy who likely possesses more ability to give his owners a productive fantasy day.

Projections:
Jake Locker: 230 pass yds, 1 TD, 1 INT, 15 rush yds
Bishop Sankey: 50 rush yds, 1 TD, 15 rec yds
Shonn Greene: 35 rush yds, 10 rec yds
Dexter McCluster: 10 rush yds, 25 rec yds
Justin Hunter: 60 rec yds
Kendall Hunter: 70 rec yds, 1 TD
Delanie Walker: 40 rec yds

Passing Game Thoughts: Fresh off of giving quarterback Alex Smith a $45M guaranteed contract, the Kansas City Chiefs have to be very confident in the direction their team is headed going into 2014. Smith, who had another very efficient season with 23 touchdowns and only seven interceptions, led the Chiefs to an unexpected playoff run in 2013. Winning the turnover battle has been a staple of Alex Smith’s success over the past few seasons as a member of the 49ers and now the Chiefs, but it doesn’t exactly excite fantasy owners. Despite throwing for a career high in touchdowns and rushing for 431 yards, Smith finished 15th among quarterbacks in standard-scoring leagues. While we would be wise to expect a bit more passing and less running from the Chiefs this season as they look to balance Jamaal Charles’ workload in order to keep him healthy, the truth is that Alex Smith is likely never going to be a reliable, every week starter for fantasy purposes...at least not in this offense. His chances might be even worse in Week 1 as top wide receiver Dwayne Bowe will be serving a suspension. Smith will instead be throwing to the ever-exciting duo of Donnie Avery and A.J. Jenkins. Worse yet, they’ll be up against a Tennessee Titans secondary that quietly finished second in the NFL, only behind the Seahawks, in fewest fantasy points allowed to opposing wide receivers. The Titans allowed just six touchdowns to opposing wideouts all season, and half of those came against the Broncos. When these teams played in Week 5 of 2013, Smith threw for just 245 yards, no touchdowns and an interception. While, there is a bright side in that the Titans lost cornerback Alterraun Verner to the Buccaneers over the offseason, there is still not much to like in this Kansas City passing game for Week 1.

Running Game Thoughts: A monstrous 2013 season from Jamaal Charles has fantasy owners salivating over the possibilities of him being the league’s top-scoring fantasy running back for a second straight year. Charles has been a lock as a top three pick in almost all fantasy drafts this offseason, and for good reason. He’s coming off of his best season yet and without any major additions of playmakers, the Kansas City offense still centers around getting the ball to No. 25. As long as he stays healthy, there is no reason to believe that he will not once again finish the season as one of the most valuable players in all of fantasy football. The offensive line in Kansas City was left a little bare over the offseason, but try not to be overly worried about that unless we see it play out badly on the field. Charles is capable of finding his way through even the smallest of holes in the defense and making opposing defenses pay dearly.

This matchup against a Tennessee defense that surrendered the third-most points to opposing fantasy running backs in 2013 is an excellent one, and one that Charles himself exploited a season ago. When these two teams met in Week 5, Charles punished the defense for 108 yards and a touchdown on the ground while adding five catches for 37 yards as a receiver. Similar numbers seem like a good possibility as the Chiefs will be without Dwayne Bowe and will likely need to rely even more heavily on Charles than they normally do.

Projections:
Alex Smith: 170 pass yds, 1 TD, 1 INT, 20 rush yds
Jamaal Charles: 100 rush yds, 1 TD, 35 rec yds, 1 TD
Donnie Avery: 40 rec yds
A.J. Jenkins: 30 rec yds
Travis Kelce: 40 rec yds

Prediction: Chiefs 20, Titans 14 ^ Top

Colts at Broncos - (Caron)

Passing Game Thoughts: 2013 saw a step back in terms of total passing yardage, yards per attempt and rushing touchdowns for second-year quarterback Andrew Luck, yet an overall increase in terms of efficiency. Luck threw the same number of touchdowns in 2013 as he did in 2012 (23), but he was able to cut his interceptions in half. That alone makes Luck an enticing fantasy option for 2014, but there’s even more reason to like Luck as the Colts have also added veteran former New York Giants wide receiver Hakeem Nicks over the offseason. Nicks, who went went back-to-back with 1,000-plus yard seasons in 2010 and 2011, was on his way to becoming an elite fantasy wide receiver before suffering injuries in 2012. Since then, he Nicks has not been himself. Although he did reach nearly 900 yards receiving in 2013, a change of scenery could be good for this former first round NFL draft pick. Nicks will have an opportunity to play next to some very solid receiving options in Indianapolis, with T.Y. Hilton and veteran receiver Reggie Wayne, who will be back after a torn ACL cost him the second half of his 2013 season. This trio, in addition to the tight end duo of Dwayne Allen and Coby Fleener, should give Andrew Luck an opportunity at a big season in 2014. They’ll start off with a matchup against a team that they upset in 2013 when they handed the Broncos their first loss of 2013. Luck was exceptional in that game, putting together one of his best fantasy performances of the season with a 228 yard, three touchdown passing performance, while also adding 29 rushing yards and a touchdown on the ground. While this will be a tougher matchup on the road in Denver and playing against a significantly improved Denver defense that has added the likes of DeMarcus Ware, Aqib Talib and T.J. Ward, Luck is still a QB1 option heading into Week 1. If Denver puts points on the board on offense as we know they are capable of doing, look for the Colts to give Luck plenty of opportunities to throw the rock in an effort to keep up.

Running Game Thoughts: In what has been hailed as one of the worst NFL trades in recent memory, the Indianapolis Colts went without a first round draft pick in 2014 after acquiring running back Trent Richardson from the Cleveland Browns early in the 2013 season. Richardson, whose 3.6 yards per carry average was forgotten by fantasy owners due to a 12-touchdown season, proved to be an absolute disaster as a member of the Colts. Richardson averaged an excruciatingly horrible 2.9 yards per carry on 157 attempts as a member of the Colts, while scoring just four total touchdowns on the season. Ahmad Bradshaw, who Richardson replaced after he got injured in Week 3, now finds himself behind Richardson on the depth chart, but with a sneaky opportunity to steal the job should the young tailback continue to produce such abysmal numbers.

In Week 1, fantasy owners should expect that the Colts will give Richardson somewhere between 12-to-18 touches, presuming that they do not fall too far behind early in the game and have to abandon the run. He’s worth consideration as a FLEX option as he has shown the ability to score when close to the goaline. It’s certainly tough to trust Richardson, especially considering that he had one of his worst games of the season against the Broncos this past year when he rushed for just 37 yards on 14 carries and lost a fumble, but the Denver defense is not great against the run. In fact, they allowed 14 or more fantasy points to opposing running backs in 12 of their 16 games this past season. While they have made improvements to their defense, most of them were focused on stopping the pass. Don’t expect RB1 numbers out of Richardson in this game, but 50-to-70 total yards and a decent possibility for a touchdown makes him at least a bit interesting.

Projections:
Andrew Luck: 270 pass yds, 2 TD, 1 INT, 20 rush yds
Trent Richardson: 45 rush yds, 1 TD, 20 rec yds
Ahmad Bradshaw: 25 rush yds
T.Y. Hilton: 70 rec yds, 1 TD
Reggie Wayne: 65 rec yds, 1 TD
Hakeem Nicks: 40 rec yds
Coby Fleener: 30 rec yds
Dwayne Allen: 20 rec yds

Passing Game Thoughts: It’s amazing to think that Peyton Manning’s 2013 season was literally the greatest fantasy football season in the history of the game. Manning set single-season NFL records in both passing yardage (5,477) and touchdowns (55) while throwing just 10 interceptions on the year. Those who thought that Manning’s career might be coming to an end after the neck surgery that cost him the entire 2011 NFL season have been hanging their heads in shame as Manning has put up an insane ratio of 92 touchdowns with only 21 interceptions since coming to Denver. While wide receiver Eric Decker left the team to join the Jets in the offseason, Denver made sure to add to their offensive firepower by picking up former Pittsburgh Steeler Emmanuel Sanders and drafting 6’3”, 215 lb Cody Latimer in the second round of April’s NFL Draft. Unfortunately for the Broncos, slot receiver Wes Welker will miss Week 1 as he will be serving a suspension after testing positive for a banned substance. This will likely mean that Sanders will slide inside to play the slot on many downs. Sanders was used both in the slot and outside in 2013 as a member of the Steelers, but will almost certainly see an increase in his 67 catches, 740 yards and six touchdowns now that he is a member of this high-powered Denver offense. With Welker out, however, Denver may opt to rely more on tight end Julius Thomas who enjoyed a breakout season in 2013 with 788 yards and 12 touchdowns. Of course, the team’s top wide receiver Demaryius Thomas figures to be the focal point as he was a season ago, and could be poised to lead the entire league in fantasy production from the wide receiver position this season.

When these teams played in Week 7 of 2013, D. Thomas caught just four passes, but made them count as he went for 82 yards and a touchdown. J. Thomas also caught a touchdown on five catches in that contest. Welker led the team in that game with seven catches for 96 yards, so it will be interesting to see how Manning and the Broncos choose to attack this Indianapolis secondary who was middle-of-the-pack last season, giving up 20.9 FPts on average to quarterbacks. Fantasy owners would be wise to start everyone they can in this game, as this will likely be one of the highest-scoring games of the week and many players will have an opportunity to put up good numbers for fantasy purposes.

Running Game Thoughts: It’s pretty rare that a team cuts ties with a player who produced nearly 1,600 yards of offense and 13 touchdowns without losing a fumble in the previous season, but that’s exactly what the Broncos decided to do when they allowed Knowshon Moreno to walk and sign with the Miami Dolphins this off-season. Moreno, who finished as a top-five fantasy running back in 2013, shred his “bust” label and produced monster fantasy numbers as a runner despite sharing the field with the most productive passing game in the history of the league. Denver’s bold decision to let Moreno go only goes to prove that they are indeed confident in second-year running back Montee Ball who struggled early as a rookie, but really stepped up in the final few games of the season. Ball is not an exceptionally talented runner, but he does have a nose for the end zone. In fact, he scored more rushing touchdowns than any player in the history of college football. That bodes well for his chances in this offense as Ball will likely be given the exclusive opportunity to carry the ball in the red zone. Moreno’s 13 touchdowns were impressive, but Ball’s upside may be even higher. The Colts ranked 26th in the league against the run in 2013 and even given Denver’s insistence on passing the ball, that should mean that some holes will be there for Ball to run through in Week 1. Look for him to touch the ball nearly 20 times on the day, with as good of a chance to score a touchdown as just about any running back in the league. Ball is a very safe RB2 going into this game with the very real potential to put up top-5 fantasy numbers.

Projections:
Peyton Manning: 350 pass yds, 3 TD
Montee Ball: 70 rush yds, 1 TD, 30 rec yds
Ronnie Hillman: 15 rush yds, 25 rec yds
Demaryius Thomas: 115 rec yds, 1 TD
Emmanuel Sanders: 75 rec yds, 1 TD
Cody Latimer: 30 rec yds
Andre Caldwell: 25 rec yds
Julius Thomas: 40 rec yds, 1 TD

Prediction: Broncos 37, Colts 27 ^ Top

Giants @ Lions - (Marcoccio)

Passing Game Thoughts: Eli Manning is coming off of his worst season since the early years of his career when he was still learning how to play the position. He only threw for 18 touchdown passes while accruing an unbelievable 27 interceptions. There are many reasons that could have led to such a poor 2013 including a porous offensive line (Manning was sacked a career high 39 times), an ankle injury suffered during the season and the offensive gameplan being stale. The line issues were addressed through free agency and the draft and Manning had offseason surgery to clean up his ankle. Furthermore, the only offensive coordinator that Eli has ever known, Kevin Gilbride, was replaced by former Packer quarterback coach Ben McAdoo. There’s hope for the younger Manning to turn things back around, as the Giants will now be one of the up-tempo offenses that are now in vogue around the league. McAdoo is also installing a more west coast based play-calling that will use short screens and slants, as opposed to Gilbride’s vertical based offense. The offensive line will not have to hold its blocks as long and wide receivers Victor Cruz, Reuben Randle and Odell Beckham are great fits for the new offense. Unfortunately for the team, first round rookie Beckham has missed most of training camp with a sore hamstring so it will likely take him a good part of the early season to get acclimated in the offense.

The Lions front seven should be a serious test for the Giants’ patched up offensive line. If the line isn’t able to protect Eli Manning, this game could get ugly early. If Eli does get time, he should find some success against a secondary that allowed 246.9 yards per game and 24 passing touchdowns last season. The Lions did very little to address their defensive backfield this offseason.

Running Game Thoughts: Career backup Rashad Jennings was able to parlay a nice run in 2013 with the Oakland Raiders into a starting gig and a decent NFL payday. Jennings was able to rush for 733 yards with 6 touchdowns and caught 36 balls for another 292 yards last season. He looked the part after taking over the starting running back position in Week 10 following a Darren McFadden injury. Jennings has had a great preseason and was one of the only bright spots on the offensive side of the ball for New York. He should see the bulk of the carries and be heavily involved in the passing game. Andre Williams led the nation in rushing yards as a Boston College Eagle last season. His size and running style is very reminiscent of former Giant Brandon Jacobs. Williams lacks any real wiggle, but has very impressive straight line speed for his size and is tough to bring down once he gets momentum. Williams looked impressive at times during the preseason and could be used in a goal-line/short yardage role.
The Lions’ run defense finished the season sixth in the league, and is poised to be a top unit once again. The middle of the defense features defensive tackle Nhadamokung Suh, middle line backer Stephen Tulloch and free safety Louis Delma who are all strong against the run. The team allowed only 99.8 yards per game and 10 touchdowns on the ground in 2013. This will be a good early-season test for the Giants’ running game.

Projections:
Eli Manning: 195 pass yds, 2 TDs, 2 INTs, 5 rush yds
Rashad Jennings: 85 rush yds, 40 rec yds, 1 TD
Andre Williams: 15 rush yds, 5 rec yds
Victor Cruz: 85 rec yds
Rueben Randle: 40 rec yds, 1 TD
Larry Donnell: 5 rec yds

Passing Game Thoughts: The Lions already had a top-three passing offense last season, and went out and added more weapons for Matthew Stafford to utilize. Pass happy coordinator Scott Linehan is no longer with the team after the coaching staff was let go this offseason, but new coordinator Joe Lombardi comes over from New Orleans, last season’s number two ranked passing offense. Head Coach Jim Caldwell was determined to improve Stafford’s mechanics and he’s said to be pleased with the results. In addition to having the best wide receiver in the league, Calvin Johnson, the team signed former Seahawk Golden Tate and drafted tight end Eric Ebron in round one of the NFL Draft. In place are two very effective pass catchers at the running back position, Reggie Bush and Joique Bell. It’s hard to imagine many teams in the league throwing for more yards in 2014 than the Detroit Lions.

The Giants signed Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie and Walter Thurmond this offseason with the hope of improving on what was already a decent pass defense last season. The Giants allowed 223.3 yards per game and 21 passing touchdowns finishing as a top-ten unit. What was missing was the once feared pass rush as the team finished 26th in the league in sacks. Not much was done on that front this offseason and the team will hope defensive tackles Jason Pierre-Paul and Matthias Kiwanuka can regain past form where they dominated the line of scrimmage.

Running Game Thoughts: Journeyman Joique Bell seems to have finally found a home in Detroit and is expected to see the bulk of the carries in the Lions backfield while Reggie Bush is utilized more in the “Darren Sproles” role. Both backs are very good pass catchers and Bell is the superior inside runner. Bush displayed his dynamic running style this preseason and should still see a good number of carries in 2014. As Bush grew older and more experienced, he became a much better overall back finally learning to run north-south more instead of always dancing around looking for the big play. This should be one of the better running back tandems in the league this season.

The Giants were average against the run last season but could regress in 2014. Last season they allowed 108.9 yards per game and 12 touchdowns on the ground. The team will be relying on Jon Beason’s health this season, which isn’t necessarily a strong bet to make.

Projections:
Matthew Stafford: 305 pass yds, 3 TDs
Joique Bell: 95 rush yds, 1 TD, 25 rec yds
Reggie Bush: 55 rush yds, 45 rec yds
Calvin Johnson: 135 rec yds, 1 TD
Golden Tate: 65 rec yds, 1 TD
Eric Ebron: 20 rec yds
Brandon Pettigrew: 10 rec yds, 1 TD

Prediction: Lions 34, Giants 27 ^ Top

Jaguars at Eagles - (Thorne)

Passing Game Thoughts: True to their word the Jaguars appear to be sticking with the plan of bringing along rookie QB Blake Bortles slowly, giving incumbent QB Chad Henne the start despite a solid preseason from the third overall draft pick. The future is brighter in Jacksonville than it’s been in recent memory, but the upcoming season isn’t likely to be much better than last. The journeyman veteran QB has only gotten older and his offensive line isn’t remarkably different. The receiving corps is headlined by WR Cecil Shorts who shows flashes of brilliance but is frequently hamstrung by his own hamstrings, and opposite him is Marqise Lee, a rookie WR from the University of Southern California; none of those descriptors historically lend themselves to fantasy or on-the-field productivity. The only consistently reliable receiving option may be TE Marcedes Lewis, now age 30, who missed more games last season (5) than he has the rest of his career (3 games in 7 previous seasons). Despite hauling in just 53% of the passes thrown his way Lewis caught more touchdowns than anyone else on the team (4) and had a better yards per reception average (14.4) than anyone with more than three targets. With a near-painful lack of other receiving talent on the field any given week, the veteran TE may be the most dependable fantasy option on the team. His low ceiling speaks volumes about fantasy prospects in Jacksonville.

Based on 2013 performances, if there’s an NFL defense that can make the Jaguars passing offense look respectable it would certainly be their 2014 Week One opponents from Philadelphia. Despite perception to the contrary, Jacksonville did not have a historically bad passing offense last year. Conversely, although they made the playoffs the Eagles were indeed bad enough to earn their place in record books. This off-season saw turnover in the secondary and picked up depth in their most serious areas of need, but until proven otherwise the defense is expected to be just as poor, though perhaps not historically so. The biggest hindrance to the Jaguars passing game is likely to be the Jaguars passing game, though with a relatively clean bill of health and the desire to right the wrongs of 2013 the Eagles will certainly try to contribute to the aerial woes likely to befall Jacksonville.

Running Game Thoughts: A number of fantasy-relevant moves were made this offseason involving RBs and Jacksonville found themselves on both ends of the news, losing long-time star Maurice Jones-Drew and obtaining Toby Gerhart, the dutiful backup to one of the league’s best backs over the past several years. After a number of impressive performances in limited action, Gerhart has been thrust into the spotlight and is expected to be the bell cow that MJD had been for years. If the preseason is any indication of what is to come in 2014, the Jaguars may have overplayed their hand by going all-in with the former backup, though with respect to other backfield options Gerhart still may be the best they have available. The only other change made this off-season which should affect the running game was the departure of G Uche Nwanert and his timely replacement by G Zane Beadles, seen as an upgrade at the position and hopefully with an improvement to the second-worst ground attack in the league. With minimal passing threat posed by the offense, opposing defenses are once again likely to key on the run game, potentially overwhelming the Jaguars O-line and the now-starter running behind them.

The Eagles front seven will look incredibly similar to how it did last year, and if they can replicate the same success they did from 2013 then they ought to be in good shape. As a top ten defense, no team forced nor recovered more fumbles than they did, and only three teams had a lower yards allowed per rush average. In the entirety of his career, RB Toby Gerhart has rushed 276 times and fumbled on five of those. Last year alone nine RBs carried at least that many times and only one had that many fumbles on rushing plays; all the others had three fumbles or less. Considering the lack of experience Gerhart brings into 2014 and the proclivity which the Eagles have for limiting even the league’s best runners, Jacksonville’s rush faces a tough test in their opening game. If the Jaguars passing attack is able to have moderate success then the ground game may be able to do the same, but given the unlikelihood of the former the latter is equally as unlikely, paving the way for a long and disappointing season for Gerhart and his fantasy owners.

Projections:
Chad Henne: 205 pass yds, 1 TD, 3 INTs
Toby Gerhart: 50 rush yds, 1 TD, 20 rec yards
Cecil Shorts: 45 rec yds
Marqise Lee: 25 rec yds
Marcedes Lewis: 50 rec yds, 1 TD

Passing Game Thoughts: The fantasy surprise of 2013 was Eagles QB Nick Foles and the question of the off-season has been his (in)ability to continue where he left off. Preseason performances showed the world that he is indeed human; throwing more interceptions in 13 drives than he did in 13 regular season appearances last year. The biggest changes in the passing game are the departure of speedy DeSean Jackson and the return of his counterpart Jeremy Maclin who missed all of 2013 due to a knee injury. The addition of RB Darren Sproles gives the offense another experienced set of hands and yet another quality piece to use in the Chip Kelly offensive puzzle. The personnel moves in Philadelphia give the passing game more versatility; so even with the perceived decrease in top-end speed the offense is potentially more dynamic than it was last season. Although rookie WR Jordan Matthews has shown great skill in the preseason he is still behind both Maclin and WR Riley Cooper on the depth chart. The presence of pass catching TEs Zach Ertz and Brent Celek make Matthews a fantasy sleeper worth holding in deeper or dynasty leagues, but until he fully establishes himself in the regular season offense this rookie is currently a waiver wire target to watch but not own for the time being.

No one recorded fewer sacks last season than the Jaguars and to address that deficiency they acquired three DEs, including two from the Super Bowl champions who are now slated as starters in Jacksonville. It’s hard to believe that the D-line won’t improve with these personnel upgrades, and the additional pressure that is likely to result can only help the back seven who struggled to slow down most opponents through the air despite facing two of the league’s poorest offenses in divisional matchups last season. Considering the fast pace that the Eagles are likely to try to bring to their own offensive possessions, the lack of quality coverage defensive backs can only be masked by whatever pressure can be provided by the defensive line. The Eagles surrendered 46 sacks last season, eighth worst in the league, and still managed to put together an explosive passing attack with the highest yards per attempt average in the NFL. History suggests that even if Jacksonville is able to generate an impressive amount of pressure on Foles and the O-line it is probably not going to be enough to slow the Eagles passing attack.

Running Game Thoughts: The backfield in Philadelphia was already incredible before acquiring all-purpose RB Darren Sproles from the Saints. Now the league’s most proficient rusher RB LeSean McCoy, who himself is a quality pass catcher, will be paired with arguably the best pass catching back from the past several years, who also happens to be a reliable ball carrier. Taking the same approach as the receiving corps, the top Eagles ball carriers are dynamic between the tackles, while running outside, and also out of the backfield. The prevailing opinion is that McCoy will continue to see the lion’s share of touches as a three-down back, but that Sproles will be available whenever he’s needed to spell the starter, and that both are likely to be on the field at the same time on numerous occasions. The preseason was disappointingly vanilla from Philadelphia, giving next to zero insight as to how Chip Kelly plans to utilize the multitude of weapons the Eagles have at their disposal. Regardless of the game plan or the particular intricacies of the offense, what remains true is that Philadelphia is the reigning king of the ground game, and with the new talent available at every skill position it’s impossible to fathom a regression of any sort in the Eagles rushing attack.

Last season no defense faced more rushing attempts than Jacksonville, largely because their opponents were protecting comfortable leads and trying to run out the clock. They also gave up the fourth most rushing yards of any team and the fourth most touchdowns on the ground. By nearly all measures they had a poor offense and so their defense was on the field frequently, but the Jaguars could do little to get off the field and thus the cycle continued. With the DE additions this offseason Jacksonville stands to be more formidable along the line of scrimmage, but improving on almost-last place isn’t much of a stretch. The opening game will be a true test for the defense, though using it as a benchmark to evaluate the front seven is unfair. Combining the poor Jaguars offense with their hopefully-mediocre defense suggests that Philadelphia is likely to have a number of opportunities both on the ground and through the air to remind the rest of the league that they’re an offensive forced to be reckoned with.

Projections:
Nick Foles: 200 pass yds, 3 TDs
LeSean McCoy: 90 rush yds, 2 TDs, 25 rec yds
Darren Sproles: 25 rush yds, 25 rec yds, 1 TD
Jeremy Maclin: 60 rec yds, 1 TD
Riley Cooper: 45 rec yds
Zach Ertz: 50 rec yds, TD

Prediction: Eagles 42, Jaguars 17 ^ Top

Raiders at Jets - (Thorne)

Passing Game Thoughts: After sending a late round pick to the Texans in late March in order to acquire QB Matt Schaub, the Raiders selected QB Derek Carr in the second round of the NFL draft to compete with the newly acquired veteran. The competition must have been impressively one-sided, because despite a concussion in the preseason and needing to miss time, as of Labor Day the rookie was declared the Oakland opening day starter. Despite having no professional experience Carr did have one clear advantage coming into training camp: arm strength. Though he’ll undoubtedly take his licks on the field, fantasy owners have to be encouraged by the move because it brings value to Raiders pass catchers where previously there was none. With Carr under center Oakland can stretch the field with WR James Jones, allowing some combination of WR Rod Streater, WR Denarius Moore, and TE Mychal Rivera to work underneath or across the field. Though the potential for failure is still incredibly present at least now there is some conceivable upside. So as long as the Raiders are likely to play from behind more often than not, there is a legitimate argument to be made for owning Jones and whoever else happens to emerge from the depths of The Black Hole, though without results the argument is only theoretical.

Thankfully for Oakland the weakest part of the Jets defense is clearly their talent and depth at cornerback, and with CB Dee Milner reportedly out for week one that weakness is even more evident. The question facing the Raiders though is if they’ll be able to take advantage of that weakness, or if the other nine players on the field can make up for the apparent deficiency. The strength of New York is their defensive line, followed closely by their linebackers. Both of which will face off against the newly retooled Oakland offensive line, a unit which fell victim to injury and was limited to moderate success last season. With a young quarterback who possesses good physical tools, underused pass catchers, and a veteran O-line most of the pieces are there for the Raiders to be able to field a reasonable offense. Between the inexperience of that unit and the potential dominance of the Jets front seven though there are too many uncertainties at this time to feel good about owning, let alone starting, any Raiders pass catchers, with WR James Jones being the only potential exception.

Running Game Thoughts: Based on recent free agent moves in Oakland, apparently the best way to fortify a backfield led by an injury-prone veteran is with a somewhat less injury-prone yet quickly aging veteran. Long time RB Darren McFadden has never played more than 13 games in a season and with the arrival of RB Maurice Jones-Drew it appears he’ll now be playing the supporting role to the newly-acquired 29 year-old. Running behind a mediocre O-line and not having a great quarterback under center are not new to MJD, and in similar situations he’s put up top 10 fantasy numbers multiple times. If everything goes to plan the Raiders will have a productive star heading their backfield, who can be relieved by the younger more injury-prone back, and the timeshare may enable them both to stay healthy and remain productive for the full season. That’s the plan at least. With the top two rushers from last season no longer on the time (RB Rashad Jennings signed with the Giants, QB Terrelle Pryor was released), everyone in Oakland is hoping that plan comes to fruition.

It’s unlikely that New York cares which the ball carrier they’ll face as the stingiest defense of last season (3.4 yards against per carry) looks to repeat the dominance they exhibited for the majority of 2013. In the same way that the success of offensive line will have an enormous impact on the passing game, their ability to move the Jets stalwarts will be phenomenally important to both Jones-Drew and McFadden. Because of all the uncertainty with the Raiders new offensive pieces there’s no framework on which to set expectations for the rushing attack, but even so week ones figures to be one of the toughest tests they’ll face all season. As long as the game remains close Oakland will be able to rely on their veteran ball carriers, though even with a dedication to the running game the New York defensive line is unlikely to yield very much to whichever RB is given the opportunity.

Projections:
Derek Carr: 145 pass yds, 2 INTs
Maurice Jones-Drew: 40 rush yds, 10 rec yds
Darren McFadden: 25 rush yds, 10 rec yds
James Jones: 40 rec yds
Mychal Rivera: 25 rec yds

Passing Game Thoughts: For the first time in what feels like an eternity the Jets are unmistakably better off at the quarterback position at the beginning of this season than they were the one prior. Starting QB Geno Smith is no longer a rookie, and despite a rough season he showed gradual improvement which has continued through the preseason this year. Even the backup situation has improved, with veteran QB Michael Vick signing with the team this offseason. The resulting competition and mentoring opportunities have fostered additional growth in the young signal caller, and having Vick as a backup provides for a similar style to be played should he ever need to appear in a game. The biggest change in New York will come from new additions to the receiving corps, namely WR Eric Decker and rookie TE Jace Amaro, who by most accounts appear to be dramatic improvements to the depleted options, which were frequently on display throughout 2013. Between the progression under center and the upgrades already paying dividends as pass catchers the Jets may at last have an offense solid enough to pair with their already formidable defense. Make no mistake however, the New York passing game is still far from intimidating due to the absolute lack of depth behind the two aforementioned players.

Even though the Raiders had statistically one of the worst passing defenses of the past season, their personnel ought to matchup with New York better than with most others. The defensive line is largely constructed of older but skilled veterans and the secondary is highly capable of matching up with most starting receivers. The lack of depth at WR will limit the Jets for the majority of the season, and even against a seemingly lesser defense like Oakland they likely do not have the aerial firepower to take advantage of presented opportunities. The best chance for New York to see success through the air would be to establish the run game early and force the Raiders defense to over commit, thus opening up the field and allowing the improved sophomore QB to pick and choose the best receiver.

Running Game Thoughts: From a position of questionable reliability to one of extreme strength, the Jets backfield is now likely to be the focal point of the offense. Featuring the cheetah racing former Titan’s RB Chris Johnson, last year’s between-the-tackles workhorse RB Chris Ivory, and the ever-versatile RB Bilal Powell, New York has possibly the best combination of ball carriers in the league and conceivably has a specialist for every potential rushing situation. Going into week one Johnson is going to be the starter, but how the three will split time has yet to be determined. Close to the redzone touches may favor Ivory, so if a touchdown vulture is going to emerge from the group it will be him. The greatest upside is with Johnson, and should either he or Ivory get injured Powell will certainly be there to fill in as needed. Along with those three QB Geno Smith is mobile and has demonstrated better decision making when it comes to utilizing his legs, so whether from broken plays or to exploit too much attention being paid to a RB, Smith will likely be able to rush or scramble for a significant play in most games.

At the end of last year the Jets were in the top quarter of the league for most rushing statistics, so with the addition of Johnson to the backfield and the improvements of Smith under center the ground game figures to be even better this season. This doesn’t bode well for Oakland, even though they were approximately a top ten run defense in 2013. The reconfiguration of the D-line raises questions as to their potential effectiveness, but the names on the back of the jerseys suggest the potential for the squad to be equally as good as they were last year, possibly even better. The trouble may come from the second level, where only the middle linebacker has more than one year of NFL experience, though compared to others at his position LB Nick Roach may be one of the best the is this season. If the two young LBs can contribute as anticipated and the defensive line can mesh as hoped, the Raiders may field one of the best defenses of 2014, but with so many unproven contributors this should not be expected.

Projections:
Geno Smith: 155 pass yds, 1 TD, 1 INT, 15 rush yds
Chris Johnson: 55 rush yds, 10 rec yds
Chris Ivory: 30 rush yds, TD
Eric Decker: 25 rec yds
Jace Amaro: 35 rec yds, TD

Prediction: Jets 17, Raiders 6 ^ Top

Patriots at Dolphins - (Thorne)

Passing Game Thoughts: Now age 37, QB Tom Brady is expected to be nearing the end of his 15 year NFL career, but whether that’s a matter of months or a matter of years away is anyone’s guess. What is for certain though is New England is expected as a serious playoff contender and he’s going to be at the heart of everything they do. Despite the prolonged greatness he’s given to the Patriots his fantasy value has been slipping for the past several years. In 2013 he barely finished in the top 15, keeping such company as Ryan Tannehill, Matt Ryan, Alex Smith, and Ben Roethlisberger. As time has progressed so too has the way Brady manages the game, evolving from a high volume-scoring machine to more of a crafty opportunist, frequently yielding to the run game when defenses overcompensate for his legend. In addition to the changing approach to the game, last year also presented Brady with one of the most modest collection of receivers he’s had in recent history between suspensions, injuries, and inexperience. Now that WR Danny Amendola and TE Rob Gronkowski are reportedly healthy and WRs Aaron Dobson and Kenbrell Thompkins have another year of experience, they join WR Julian Edelman on the field as Brady starts the season with a full complement of receiving options. With TE Tim Wright being acquired via trade and Shane Vereen still capably contributing out of the backfield New England has receiving depth in addition to overall improvement paving the way for a bounce back year for Brady as the Patriots make their expected push for the Super Bowl.

As a unit New England was approximately the tenth best passing offense last season and Brady had one of the most mediocre years of his career. Assuming even a modest rebound that will put tremendous pressure on the new-look Miami secondary. Bolstered by CB Cortland Finnegan and S Louis Delmas the back seven now has much better name recognition, but how that translates onto the field is yet to be seen. The Dolphins found themselves right in the middle of defensive passing rankings for the majority of the season with the exception of touchdowns allowed, where they finished tied for third fewest and were one of only three teams to record more interceptions than they conceded touchdowns. In a “bend but don’t break” fashion Miami gave up fewer scores than would be expected for the yardage they surrendered, but even that total was not awful. If the new additions to the defense can improve the secondary and the front seven can continue to apply reasonable pressure then the Dolphins may have the necessary components to limit the damage done by even elite quarterbacks. Against New England matchup issues are always the primary concern, though considering that the Patriots offense has yet to truly play together as this unit it may be beneficial to the Dolphins that they’re meeting in week one.

Running Game Thoughts: Before hopes from the off-season were dashed on the rocky shores of the preseason it seemed like the fantasy universe finally had the Patriots backfield situation under control. Down to two primary backs it appeared as if RB Stevan Ridley would handle primary rushing duties and RB Shane Vereen would be used more in passing situations, ultimately resulting in a committee-like arrangement where situation would dictate the ball carrier. Then the preseason hit and Ridley once again was struck with the fumbles, one of the things for which Coach Bill Belichick has no tolerance. On top of that Vereen tended to show better when it mattered more, so now prevailing wisdom and fantasy projection have concluded that Vereen has been pegged as the running back to be used most frequently, with Ridley and others being used as the starter needs a rest. Assuming this holds true the change will benefit fantasy owners tremendously, as Vereen has the most upside because of his pass-catching abilities; last year he recorded more receiving yards and caught more touchdowns than all other Patriots backs combined. Coming off a team top ten rushing performance New England made the surprise move of the preseason by trading away longtime G Logan Mankins and the worthiness of his replacement has not yet been tested. With Brady under center and calling plays at the line of scrimmage it is assumed that little will change in the trenches for the Patriots, and as such Vereen may become the value fantasy draft pick of the season.

Much like their passing defense the Dolphins gave up more yardage on the ground than their touchdown total would suggest, but whereas Miami was average or better against the pass they were noticeably subpar when facing the run. They did face the second most rush attempts and as such their yards surrendered can be taken with a grain of salt, but even so the yards allowed per attempt were no better than 18th for the league while giving up nearly 125 rushing yards per game. Ball carriers generally found success against the Dolphins front seven so the team allowed DT Paul Soliai to leave in free agency and replaced him with a younger and slimmer Earl Mitchell to hopefully provide a more disruptive force in their 4-3 front. Little else of consequence happened along the front seven through free agency so without improvement from another source there is minimal reason for optimism for the Dolphins being a better run stopping team this season. Miami faces a potentially tough task being asked to slow down both the Patriots passing game and their rushing attack, and with the ground game being both the strength of the offense and weakness of the defense it is that phase of week one which is likely to play the biggest role in determining the outcome of the contest.

Projections:
Tom Brady: 235 pass yds, 2 TDs, 1 INT
Shane Vereen: 70 rush yds, 1 TD, 45 rec yds
Julian Edelman: 75 rec yds, 1 TD
Aaron Dobson: 40 rec yds
Rob Gronkowski: 65 rec yds, 1 TD

Passing Game Thoughts: Coming into the 2013 season the biggest concern facing the Miami aerial attack was if QB Ryan Tannehill and WR Mike Wallace would ever resolve their timing issues and finally be able to become the deep threat passing duo that the Dolphins hoped for. Despite upheaval along the offensive line the 2013 question is still the top concern heading into this season. The young quarterback and the speedy receiver seemingly have yet to resolve whatever problems exist that have severely hobbled the offense. Without a reliable deep threat opposing defenses are able to key on other aspects of the passing attack as well as over commit to the run. Emerging from the dysfunction between starting QB and star WR is the utility of players like WR Brian Hartline and TE Charles Clay whose possession receiving skills have made them high volume fantasy targets. Hartline was clearly the team’s top receiver last season, recording nearly 100 more yards than Wallace and only one fewer touchdown. By comparison Clay recorded one more touchdown than the star receiver and only 170 fewer yards as a tight end. While the biggest name in Miami is undoubtedly Wallace, he’s conceivably the third most valuable fantasy pass catcher. The hope for Tannehill is that he’ll take a huge step forward in his third year after showing improvement across the board during his sophomore season. With history as an indicator the third year is a reasonable time to expect the most improvement in most young players, but with a relatively unimproved supporting cast expectations should be tempered toward more modest advances.

This off-season the Patriots struck early and often in free agency when it came to acquiring defensive talent. Despite losing big name players like CB Aqib Talib and S Adrian Wilson the team saw a net upgrade by adding CB Darrelle Revis and S Patrick Chung, the former of which is still the top player at his position and the latter is comparably skilled and has eight fewer seasons of NFL wear and tear. Furthermore CB Brandon Browner was a highly sought after cap causality from the Super Bowl champs who will see his first playing action after serving a four game suspension to start the season. All of these moves were made in an effort to improve on the 18th ranked passing defense, who despite giving up an average number of yards and scores, had the fourth best pass completion percentage against in the league. With the Dolphins demonstrating minimal ability to consistently stretch the field that should enable the New England defensive backs to play tighter coverage on the Miami possession receivers, potentially limiting the offense and minimizing the team’s ability to move the ball downfield. Even if Wallace is able to command more respect in the passing game the New England front seven will certainly be looking to pressure Tannehill, who suffered more sacks last year than any other quarterback in the NFL.

Running Game Thoughts: Up to the kickoff of the Thursday night game no official announcement had been made regarding the starting running back in Miami. After a preseason filled with conflicting reports, mixed game results, and varying insights into injury and fitness statuses, it seems like very few people claim to know what is likely to happen in the backfield or who the primary ball carrier is going to be. Because of these factors the best prediction may be a committee situation until either RB Lamar Miller or RB Knowshon Moreno can separate himself from the other. Miller has more impressive upside on the ground but Moreno is far better in pass protection so he figures to be the third down back and in passing situations. Based on what he did last year in Denver the early prediction was that Moreno would be the every down back and Miller would be the change of pace ball carrier, but after knee surgery and reporting to camp somewhat out of shape his every down status was immediately called into question. However Moreno was brought in to compete with Miller after the entire Miami rushing contingent was stupendously disappointing, scoring only 8 total rushing touchdowns and averaging a mere 90 yards per game and a modest 4.1 per carry. For now and until proven otherwise, neither Miller nor Moreno has much fantasy value while they share duties in an underwhelming backfield.

Mercifully the weakness of the Miami offense will line up perfectly with the weakness of the New England defense, and as poor as the Dolphins were rushing the ball the Patriots are ever so slightly worse, at least according to 2013 statistics. New England opponents averaged 4.5 yards per carry and over 135 per game, so even with a struggling duo of ball carriers there’s at least reason for optimism for Dolphins ball carriers. The bolstered defense which figures to be better against the pass is also expected to be better against the run, and improving from the depths of rushing rankings won’t be a stretch of any conceivability. Perhaps the biggest issue the Patriots faced on defense last season was untimely injuries, so with a clean bill of health going into week one they’re already in a better place than they were at the end of 2013. Facing the Dolphins to begin the season may be just what New England needs to start the 2014 season off on the right foot.

Projections:
Ryan Tannehill: 210 pass yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
Lamar Miller: 50 rush yds, 10 rec yds
Knowshon Moreno: 45 rush yds, 20 rec yds
Mike Wallace: 35 rec yds
Brian Hartline: 50 rec yds, 1 TD
Charles Clay: 25 rec yds

Prediction: Patriots 27, Dolphins 17 ^ Top

49ers at Cowboys - (Thorne)

Passing Game Thoughts: The San Francisco offense remains nearly unchanged from last season, and if similar inputs yield similar outputs then the passing game will once again strive for fantasy mediocrity. As an offense they’ll be much more balanced with WR Michael Crabtree at full health to begin the season. Last year’s leading pass catcher WR Anquan Boldin remains with the team after resigning in the off-season, and no longer holding out the team’s leading touchdown catcher TE Vernon Davis completes the three headed monster which is the 49ers aerial attack. While the top three receivers figure to fare well this season, the depth behind them seems to be incredibly limited once again. Despite playing in only five games last season Crabtree was still the third leading receiver on the team with respect to both yardage and touchdown receptions. The strength of the offense continues to be the offensive line and the powerful running backs behind them, but duel-threat QB Colin Kaepernick benefits from that strength in both aspects of the offense. Though the young quarterback has only modest fantasy upside as a passer, his contributions on the ground elevate his potential well into the top five at the position. The question will once again be how much of that potential he realizes and how well his is able to limit the physical toll on his body so that he can once again play a complete season.

Although it’s hard to predict on exactly which Sunday Kaepernick will exercise his ability to completely take over a game, with a week one opponent like Dallas the odds are dramatically more in his favor. Coming off one of the worst statistical seasons in recent memory the Cowboys defense lost more talent than they gained during the off-season and training camp injuries once again affected the defense in one of the worst ways, stripping an already thin defense of their on-field leader LB Sean Lee. Dallas was near the bottom of the league in sacks recorded, only marginally better in interceptions forced, and had one of the worst combinations of yards allowed per pass attempt, pass completion percentage, and yardage surrendered through the air. With limited ability to rush the passer the secondary was left woefully exposed, and nothing from the off-season or preseason suggests that the Cowboys have improved in either respect; most reports actually conclude that the defense has regressed. All of these factors point to phenomenal potential for the 49ers in week one. If the San Francisco running game can be established early the defense will have to over commit, further exposing the secondary to Crabtree running deep, Boldin across the middle, and Davis exploiting the defensive matchups however they’re presented. Even with limited depth at WR the 49ers are still likely to overwhelm Dallas through the air.

Running Game Thoughts: According to an old adage it is possible to have too much of a good thing. In a fantasy sense, the rushing attack of San Francisco may be so successful that starting RB Frank Gore may be pulled early or rested more frequently because his services aren’t required. If the 49ers are as strong in the run as they were last season, and with a nearly identical O-line and backfield it’s hard to imagine otherwise, rookie RB Carlos Hyde may make more of an appearance than expected in the NFL debut. Between the playmaking abilities of QB Colin Kaepernick, the skill and strength of Gore, and the bulldozers disguised as San Francisco offensive linemen, the 49ers will once again field one of the most physical and imposing ground games in the league. Provided that any semblance of balance can be achieved between the passing and rushing aspects of the offense, the team figures to be able to pick up where they left off last season. If this does occur and the 49ers impose their will on the Dallas defense, Hyde may spoil an otherwise magnificent fantasy day from Gore by subbing in for him before the game is out of reach. The best hope for Gore owners is that the Cowboys offense can keep the game close, forcing San Francisco to continue to put forth full effort in the rushing attack.

Technically Dallas was less dreadful against the run in 2013 than they were against the pass, technically; they were still one of the worst five against the ground game by most statistical measure. Without LB Sean Lee last year and then again this year the majority of the pressure will fall on the defensive line to stop the 49ers ground game, and thankfully the most significant addition to the team this off-season belongs on the D-line. Formerly with Chicago, it was the injury to DT Henry Melton that signaled the beginning of the end of the Bears ferocious run defense, so his presence on the Dallas defensive line is expected to be equally impactful. Without much else of note in the front seven it feels as if the success of the defense rests unfairly on his shoulders. Between the running back talent in San Francisco and the ability of the quarterback to make plays with his legs the Cowboys defense is likely to be worn thin as they consistently face a fresh ball carrier running behind one of the most physical offensive lines in the league. If the 49ers are able to control the line of scrimmage as expected it will be a long day for the home team as they try with no avail to slow the rushing attack of San Francisco.

Projections:
Colin Kaepernick: 215 pass yds, 2 TDs, 45 rush yds
Frank Gore: 135 rush yds, 1 TD
Carlos Hyde: 50 rush yds, 1 TD, 10 rec yds
Michael Crabtree: 55 rec yds, 1 TD
Anquan Boldin: 50 rec yds
Vernon Davis: 60 rec yds, 1 TD

Passing Game Thoughts: Because of how free agency worked out and preseason injuries transpired the Cowboys are going to have to win games by outscoring their opponents on offense rather than limiting them with their defense. Veteran QB Tony Romo, fresh off back surgery and still carrying the weight of his enormous contract, will of course be at the center of this strategy for victory, along with his trusty TE Jason Witten, superstar WR Dez Bryant, and emerging talent WR Terrance Williams. Both on the field and from a fantasy perspective the aging TE is on the downside of his career but of all the players more likely to fade off into the sunset as opposed to going out with a bag, Witten would certainly be considered among the latter. With the points that are going to be needed from the offense in order to make up for the tragically thin defense, Romo is going to be looking for contributions from everyone with a star on their helmet and there ought to be more than enough passes to spread around. While balance is preached as the key to offensive success I see Dallas favoring the pass more frequently than the run, putting a premium on the quarterback’s ability to make the right read, execute the proper throw, and avoid the game-ending mistakes for which he’s gained an arguably unfair reputation.

To steal a phrase from Lloyd Christmas of Dumb and Dumber, I’m telling you “there’s a chance” that Dallas can win this game, and that “one out of a million” shot comes courtesy of missing personnel on the part of the 49ers defense. Standout LBs Aldon Smith (suspension) and NaVorro Bowman (ACL recovery) will leave the team short in the areas of pass rushing and pass coverage, respectively. That puts more pressure on the D-line, who between aging and pending criminal concerns have enough to worry about without the increased responsibilities. Even if the Cowboys can consistently get past the front seven of San Francisco they still have to deal with the secondary, which is likely the best it’s been in a number of years. The most probable scenario is that the absences and distractions will not impact the outcome of the game, but they may be enough to positively affect the fantasy performances of the biggest Dallas stars.

Running Game Thoughts: Regardless of the team performs in week one Dallas ought to be better running the ball in 2014 than they were last season, but considering how they couldn’t average more than 95 yards per game any improvement would be relative. Under new offensive coordinator Scott Linehan, the team is expected to be more focused on the pass, but that could open things up on the ground if defenses start favoring the aerial game. With the same three ball carriers in the backfield and an offensive line with another year of experience under its belt the pieces are in place for Dallas to at least escape the bottom ten when it comes to rushing attacks. Leading RB DeMarco Murray is coming off his most successful professional season and the 14 games he played last year are the most he’s played in his career. The totals he put up in 2013 are nearly equal to those he collected in the two years prior, and if he can take another step forward this year he’ll establish himself as a reliable fantasy RB as well as a central piece of the Dallas offense. With Romo recovering from his second back surgery in two years and a defense not likely to help the cause, Murray may be thrust into a role bigger than he is able to fill. With the team’s assumed necessity to score points and the offensive coordinator’s propensity to pass, fantasy owners are more likely to find themselves wanting him to touch the ball more and be given more opportunities, rather than less and hoping to avoid injury by sharing the workload.

As much as the 49ers pass defense relies on the front seven to create pressure, even more so does the run defense require the defensive line and linebackers to snuff out opposing ball carriers. Despite the potential personnel issues highlighted earlier San Francisco still has a collection of stout run stoppers who are looking forward to their opportunity to shine. As a team they gave up the fourth fewest rushing yards in the league and had an equally as impressive yards allowed per rush average. By comparison the Cowboys ground game was not particularly adept at getting the most out of their rush attempts, nor were they committed enough to the run to make up for their lack of efficiency with increased volume. Despite the positives that can be attributed to Murray and the Dallas O-line they mean little to the 49ers and their ability to shut down even the most gifted runners. If San Francisco gets beat through the air early and Bryant wreaks havoc in the secondary that may open up running lanes for the Cowboys to exploit, but barring a big day from the Dallas superstar the 49ers probably aren’t giving up may yards on the ground and are almost certainly not conceding a rushing touchdown.

Projections:
Tony Romo: 260 pass yds, 3 TDs, 2 INTs
DeMarco Murray: 55 rush yds, 10 rec yds
Dez Bryant: 90 rec yds, 1 TD
Terrance Williams: 50 rec yds
Jason Witten: 35 rec yds, 1 TD

Prediction: 49ers 35, Cowboys 27 ^ Top

Saints at Falcons - (Smith)

Passing Game Thoughts: Among fantasy owners, there isn’t a player more respected than Drew Brees. Year in and year out, he delivers prodigious numbers, and was the second highest scoring quarterback in fantasy last season. He should continue down that path this year despite losing Darren Sproles. Brees still has arguably the best receiving tight end in football, Jimmy Graham, a veteran in Marques Colston, a dynamic rookie in Brandin Cooks, and another youngster in Kenny Stills. Stills is nursing a hamstring injury and is very iffy to play at press time. If he sits, Joe Morgan would fill his deep threat role against a Falcons team that was prone to being lit up through the air in 2013.

Frankly, Atlanta was mediocre to bad most of last season against the pass. They ranked 28th or worse in most pass-defense statistics, though they did rank 21st in total passing yards allowed, if you want to call that a bright spot. The Falcons allowed the seventh-most fantasy points in the league to QBs last year and the ninth-most to TEs but were tied for 14th in points allowed to WRs. It wouldn’t be a shock if they improved somewhat in this area, but still represent a quality match-up for Brees and Co.

Running Game Thoughts: The loss of the aforementioned Sproles won’t necessarily hurt the New Orleans running attack, because of how few carries he actually got last season (53 – fourth on the team). This year the Saints will continue to shuffle carries between runners Pierre Thomas, Mark Ingram, and Khiry Robinson. Many believe Robinson will be the back that ultimately leads the team in rushing, but even if that happens, his fantasy value won’t be tremendous because he’s unlikely to average even 10 carries per game. If the Saints didn’t employ a triumvirate of running backs, it would be a good match-up against an Atlanta team that was weak against the run last season.

Only the Bears surrendered more rushing yards and a higher YPC average than the Falcons last season, but they managed to rank in a tie for 18th in rushing scores yielded. This helped Atlanta place eighth in fantasy points allowed to running backs last year instead of finishing in the top-five (or bottom-five, depending how you want to look at it).

Projections:
Drew Brees: 305 pass yds, 3 TD, 2 INT
Khiry Robinson: 40 rush yds
Pierre Thomas: 35 rush yds, 20 rec yds
Mark Ingram: 20 rush yds
Marques Colston: 75 rec yds, 1 TD
Brandin Cooks: 55 rec yds
Kenny Stills: 40 rec yds
Jimmy Graham: 105 rec yds, 2 TD

Passing Game Thoughts: Injuries to both Roddy White and Julio Jones meant the highest-scoring receiver in fantasy last season for the Falcons was Harry Douglas, a scenario which helped doom Atlanta’s chances for success. When healthy, the combo is dynamic and Jones is among the top five-to-ten fantasy wideouts. Matt Ryan threw for more than 4,500 yards and 26 scores last season despite the injury troubles at receiver, but did toss 17 picks. He should be better this year with a healthy Jones and White, and even with a solid New Orleans pass defense, Ryan should be starting this week.

The Saints made a major turnaround defensively in 2013, going from a unit that gave up oceans of yards in 2012 to one that ended last season ranked second in the league in pass defense. Just two teams allowed fewer fantasy points to QBs last year, and only six teams permitted more points to WRs and TEs. New Orleans should continue to be tough on passers this season, especially with the addition of safety Jairus Byrd.

Running Game Thoughts: Steven Jackson, like his teammates at wide receiver, suffered through an injury-riddled 2013 season, and then missed most of training camp this year with a hamstring injury. He’s obviously not a RB1, and it would be difficult to imagine him as an RB2 except based on match-up. Jackson did run for 140 yards and a score in two games against the Saints last season, but it’s hard to envision him getting a big workload in the opener after missing so much of camp.

New Orleans wasn’t quite as good against the run as they were the pass, ranking 18th in yards allowed and 28th in YPC, but they tied for 11th in rushing scores yielded and surrendered the 11th-fewest fantasy points in the league to running backs.

Projections:
Matt Ryan: 250 pass yds, 2 TD, 2 INT
Steven Jackson: 40 rush yds, 1 TD, 15 rec yds
Jacquizz Rodgers: 15 rush yds, 20 rec yds
Julio Jones: 90 rec yds, 2 TD
Roddy White: 65 rec yds
Harry Douglas: 35 rec yds
Levine Toilolo: 15 rec yds

Prediction: Saints 27, Falcons 21 ^ Top

Redskins at Texans - (Smith)

Passing Game Thoughts: After a lousy preseason, there have been some calls for Kirk Cousins to start over Robert Griffin III. Fantasy owners hope that isn’t the case, because RG3 brings something to the table Cousins simply cannot replicate – points from rushing yards. Yet owners will still get the majority of their points from Griffin’s ability to throw the ball, and he has a new weapon which should only help in DeSean Jackson. Jackson and Pierre Garcon, along with promising tight end Jordan Reed, should all be valuable fantasy contributors this year, though this week’s match-up with the Texans is a tough one.

Houston’s defense contains a boatload of talent, and despite the fact that they were tied for 21st in passing touchdowns allowed last season and ranked third-to-last in sacks, the team sill surrendered the third-fewest passing yards in the league. The Texans gave up the eighth-fewest fantasy points to QBs in 2013 and tied for seventh-fewest points allowed to WRs. Their returning talent, along with a pair of key additions – Jadeveon Clowney and defensive coordinator Romeo Crennel – should continue to make them a difficult match-up.

Running Game Thoughts: Alfred Morris had a very good sophomore campaign in 2013. Problem was, it wasn’t as good as his rookie season. Nonetheless, he ended up 14th among RBs in fantasy scoring last year despite being no threat as a pass-catcher. Morris should continue to produce as the unquestioned lead back for Washington, and he has a decent match-up with Houston.

The Texans were 23rd in rushing yards given up and 22nd in YPC allowed last season. Yet they still tied for 11th in rushing touchdowns permitted and wound up 14th in fantasy points allowed to opposing RBs.

Projections:
Robert Griffin III: 215 pass yds, 1 TD, 2 INT, 40 rush yds
Alfred Morris: 95 rush yds, 1 TD
DeSean Jackson: 85 rec yds, 1 TD
Pierre Garcon: 65 rec yds
Jordan Reed: 40 rec yds

Passing Game Thoughts: Houston’s quarterback of the future will likely suit up for some college team this week, so in the meantime they have veteran Ryan Fitzpatrick at the helm. While not a star, Fitzpatrick is capable of putting up some decent fantasy numbers because he’s more of a rushing threat than most probably realize (225 yards, three touchdowns last season). He still has Andre Johnson to throw to, which is nice. Johnson was 12th in fantasy scoring at receiver last season, and remains a WR1 heading into this season. Houston also returns DeAndre Hopkins and tight end Garrett Graham, each of whom will have their moments but won’t measure up to Johnson this week. Graham (back) is a gametime decision so check the inactive list on Sunday morning.

There are a bunch of wordy adjectives one can use to describe Washington’s pass defense in 2013, but the best one is the simplest – average. They were 20th in passing yards allowed, tied for 21st in passing scores ceded and 21st in sacks. As far as fantasy points allowed, they gave up either the 10th or 11th most to QBs, WRs and TEs, so at least they were consistent. The Redskins did add Jason Hatcher in the off-season to help bolster their defensive line, and they still have the likes of Ryan Kerrigan, Brian Orakpo and DeAngelo Hall, so nobody should be surprised if the team takes a step forward defensively.

Running Game Thoughts: The Texans lost Ben Tate to the Browns this offseason, but didn’t seem to fret, remaining content with Arian Foster despite his injury issues last year. If healthy, Foster should be a workhorse (again) this season, and among fantasy’s most productive backs. A true dual-threat, he has an opportunity to register big numbers this week against Washington.

Though the Redskins were 17th in rushing yards surrendered and 14th in YPC given up, no team in the NFL allowed more rushing touchdowns than they did, with 23. Put all that together and you have a team that yielded the fourth-most fantasy points in the league to running backs in 2013.

Projections:
Ryan Fitzpatrick: 245 pass yds, 1 TD, 1 INT, 25 rush yds
Arian Foster: 105 rush yds, 1 TD, 35 rec yds
Andre Johnson: 90 rec yds, 1 TD
DeAndre Hopkins: 75 rec yds
Garrett Graham: 35 rec yds

Prediction: Texans 20, Redskins 17 ^ Top

Panthers at Buccaneers - (Smith)

Passing Game Thoughts: Cam Newton and Greg Olsen return. Yup, that’s about it, because the Panthers replaced their top four wideouts, which obviously included Steve Smith. That has meant the focus among fantasy owners has been mostly on rookie Kelvin Benjamin because he’s 6-foot-5, a first-round pick, and somebody has to catch the ball in Carolina. Yet Newton’s top pass-catcher will likely be Olsen, who somewhat quietly had more than 800 receiving yards last season. Newton is questionable to play this week due tot a rib injury and facing an improving Bucs defense, you likely have better options at QB.

The Buccaneers have spent a lot of resources in draft picks and money on defensive linemen in recent years, with the latest addition this off-season being defensive end Michael Johnson. Still, only four teams relinquished more touchdown passes last year, and Tampa was tied for 23rd in the league in sacks. Johnson should help from that perspective, and with the maturation of the likes of Gerald McCoy, Adrian Clayborn and Mark Barron, it’s doubtful the Bucs will again give up the fourth-most fantasy points in the NFL to QBs, which is where they ended last season.

Running Game Thoughts: The Carolina running attack has long been a headache for fantasy owners, even with the constant injuries from Jonathan Stewart. Newton, Stewart, DeAngelo Williams, and Mike Tolbert will each handle the rock, but guessing which will be most productive each given week is a near impossibility, and that includes this week against the Bucs.

Tampa ranked 15th in the NFL in rushing yards permitted, 16th in YPC allowed, and tied for eighth in rushing scores given up. Yet of the 10 rushing touchdowns they allowed, just four were by RBs, which is one reason why the Bucs ceded the seventh-fewest fantasy points in the league to players at that position.

Projections:
Cam Newton: 230 pass yds, 1 TD, 40 rush yds, 1 TD
DeAngelo Williams: 50 rush yds, 20 rec yds
Jonathan Stewart: 35 rush yds, 25 rec yds
Kelvin Benjamin: 65 rec yds
Jerricho Cotchery: 40 rec yds
Greg Olsen: 70 rec yds, 1 TD

Passing Game Thoughts: After playing very well in replacement of Jay Cutler last season, Josh McCown gets an opportunity to start for the Bucs. He probably won’t get many opportunities to start for fantasy owners, unless they are in very, very deep leagues. Yet at least one of his targets will – Vincent Jackson. Jackson was 14th in fantasy scoring at wideout last season, and even competent quarterback play should make him even more valuable. Tampa also employs a couple of rookies that could make a fantasy impact in Mike Evans and tight end Austin Seferian-Jenkins, but they should be on benches this week against Carolina.

There were fewer teams better than the Panthers against the pass last season. They ranked sixth in passing yards surrendered, tied for fifth in interceptions, tied for third-fewest touchdown passes allowed and led the NFL in sacks. And while tight ends had a bit of success against them in 2013, only Seattle gave up fewer fantasy points to QBs, and only Seattle and Tennessee allowed fewer fantasy points to WRs. The team’s core defensive players return, so the Panthers should continue to be a bad match-up for opposing players – and fantasy owners.

Running Game Thoughts: Doug Martin suffered a shoulder injury, which cut short his season in 2013, but he hadn’t been playing up to the level he showed his rookie season. Martin had just one touchdown in six games covering 139 touches last year, and averaged only 3.6 YPC. He’s still a back that has to start every week if for no reason other than the number of touches he’ll get, but be careful expecting too much out of Martin against the Panthers.

Carolina was very good against the pass last year, but spectacular against the run. They were second in the NFL in rushing yards allowed, 12th in YPC given up, and tied with the Seahawks for fewest rushing scores surrendered. Yet they did allow nearly 700 receiving yards by opposing backs, which is why they weren’t first or second in fantasy points allowed to RBs, but tied for fourth.

Projections:
Josh McCown: 180 pass yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
Doug Martin: 65 rush yds, 15 rec yds
Vincent Jackson: 80 rec yds, 1 TD
Mike Evans: 45 rec yds
Brandon Myers: 30 rec yds

Prediction: Panthers 17, Buccaneers 13 ^ Top

Bills at Bears - (Marcoccio)

Passing Game Thoughts: The key to the Bills passing game in 2014, will be the development of EJ Manuel, who had an extremely inconsistent rookie season. Manuel threw for 1,972 yards with 11 touchdown passes and 9 interceptions as a rookie. He also ran for 186 yards and 2 scores. He compiled those statistics in only ten games, as he was forced to miss six games with multiple knee injuries. Manuel was considered a raw prospect coming out of Florida State, so one could look at his decent completion percentage (58.8%) as a rookie as a positive, and hope to see some improvement in his sophomore campaign. However, Manuel struggled with accuracy and his decision making throughout the preseason to the point the coaching staff even gave him playing time during the last preseason game hoping for a turnaround. The Bills recently lured veteran Kyle Orton out of retirement to step in if Manuel’s struggles continue. The Bills made a bold move to trade up in this year’s NFL draft to acquire wide receiver Sammy Watkins in order to surround their young franchise quarterback with the weapons he’ll need to succeed. They also brought in former Buccaneer Mike Williams which should give Manuel a legitimate red zone target. The staff will also hope sophomore Robert Woods can be a dependable possession wide receiver and security blanket for their young quarterback. Watkins reinjured his ribs in the last preseason game, but is practicing and is expected to play. The team will continue to feature a high tempo offense that will attempt to run a high number of plays, but if the passing game doesn’t click, the volume just won’t be there. Despite what could be considered a nice matchup, depending on a member of the Bills passing game early in the season is not advised.

The once mighty Bears’ defense finished last season ranked as the second to worst overall defense in the league. The passing defense showed better statistically, finishing 15th while allowing 233 yards per game and 25 touchdowns through the air, but that was more of a product of teams slashing their run defense than anything else. The team wasn’t able to generate a serious pass rush and were tied for last in the league with only 31 sacks on the season. On the positive side, the unit was still able to turn the ball over, intercepting 19 passes on the year, led by cornerback Tim Jennings’ 4 interceptions. Safety Chris Conte suffered a recent concussion and has not yet been cleared to play in Week 1, but the expectation is that he will play.

Running Game Thoughts: The Bills finished behind only the Eagles in team rushing yards last season, finishing with 2,307 yards on the ground. They should once again feature a RBBC comprised of C.J. Spiller and Fred Jackson, who split carries almost evenly last season. It would be easy to write off Fred Jackson, who turned 33 years old back in February, but then again the man is coming off of a season where he put up 1,283 total yards while scoring 10 touchdowns at age 32. Spiller was a disappointment for fantasy owners last season, where he was a first round pick in many leagues based on his tantalizing skill set and his coaching staff’s promise to “run him until he pukes”. An early season high ankle sprain led to a decrease in his workload, but he was still effective running the ball, averaging 4.6 yards per carry. Spiller features elite level speed, great lateral agility and a toughness that belies his smallish stature. With the team’s commitment to the run and the Bear’s sieve of a run defense, both Spiller and Jackson are recommended fantasy starters.

The Bears’ run defense finished the season ranked dead last in the NFL, as teams ran all over them. The unit allowed a whopping 161.4 yards per game and 22 touchdowns on the ground. The team didn’t do much to address these issues this offseason, so until we are shown otherwise starting a running back facing the Bears is an easy decision.

Projections:
EJ Manuel: 185 pass yds 1 TD, 2 INTs, 25 rush yds
Fred Jackson: 65 rush yds, 1 TD, 20 rec yds
C.J. Spiller: 105 rush yds, 25 rec yds
Sammy Watkins: 45 rec yds
Robert Woods: 20 rec yds
Mike Williams: 40 rec yds, 1 TD
Scott Chandler: 15 rec yds

Passing Game Thoughts: Year one of the Marc Trestman era saw the Bears finish the season as a top 5 passing offense despite losing their starting quarterback for a chunk of the season. The Bears finished with 4,281 yards and 32 touchdowns through the air. Starting quarterback Jay Cutler missed five games, and finished the season with 2,621 passing yards and 19 scores. The offense saw a breakout season from second year player Alshon Jeffrey who accrued 1,412 receiving yards. Brandon Marshall finished with 1,291 and 12 touchdowns, making the Bears starting duo one of the league’s most dangerous. Marshall and Jay Cutler have a long history together that goes back to their time in Denver, so both will be hoping for a full 16 games together this season. While Jeffrey seemed to thrive more during backup quarterback Josh McCown’s time under center, fantasy owners shouldn’t read too much into that fact. He’s a talent that any quarterback will utilize. The 6’7” tight end Martellus Bennett combines with Marshall (6’4”) and Jeffrey (6’4”) to form the most massive collection of starting pass catchers in the league, making life easy for any starting quarterback. If Cutler stays healthy, he could be in for the best season of his career. The Bears are loaded at the skill positions, also featuring Matt Forte who offers big production in the passing game at the running back position and thrived in offensive guru Trestman’s system last year. This isn’t your Mike Ditka or even your Lovie Smith’s Bears’ offense.

The young Bills’ defense made great strides in 2013 and should be a strength once again this season. The Bills featured a top-five passing unit last season, allowing only 204 yards per game but did give up 28 passing touchdowns. The Bills have always had a ball-hawking secondary and last season the team finished behind only Seattle in interceptions, with 23. Free safety Jarius Byrd has been one of the league’s top playmaking defensive backs. Cutler has never been confused with the “game manager” types at his position. The Bills secondary could sway momentum if they can force a few mistakes this Sunday.

Running Game Thoughts: Matt Forte has been one of the NFL’s more underappreciated running backs in the league since entering the NFL out of Tulane. Even fantasy owners have a perception of him being injury prone despite him only missing five games in six NFL seasons. Forte is coming off his best season as a professional and at 28 years old he should still have some tread left on his tires. Forte rushed for 1,339 yards and 9 touchdowns while adding 74 receptions for another 594 yards and 3 more scores. Simply put, he’s a versatile weapon that should see heavy usage in a high scoring offense. The Bears drafted Ka’Deem Carey out of Arizona with the hope that he would secure the backup job, and while he is now listed as second on the depth chart, a poor preseason could mean that he won’t be active on some game days. Former Chief Shaun Draughn could see a few carries spelling Forte, but is unlikely to be a fantasy factor.

The Bills presented an easy matchup for running backs last season, but did however manage to keep them out of the end zone. The team allowed 128 yards per game on the ground, but only allowed 10 rushing touchdowns. The loss of last season’s leading tackler Kiko Alonso to a knee injury could be a serious blow to their run defense. He’ll miss at least the first six games while the Bills rely on third round rookie Preston Brown to fill his shoes.

Projections:
Jay Cutler: 285 pass yds, 2 TDs, 2 INTs, 15 rush yds
Matt Forte: 85 rush yds, 1 TD, 45 rec yds
Shaun Draughn: 25 rush yds
Santonio Holmes: 35 rec yds, 1 TD
Brandon Marshall: 85 rec yds
Alshon Jeffery: 70 rec yds, 1 TD
Martellus Bennett: 40 rec yds

Prediction: Bears 34, Bills 24 ^ Top

Bengals at Ravens - (Marcoccio)

Passing Game Thoughts: Andy Dalton isn’t considered among the elite quarterbacks in the NFL, but in most scoring formats he finished as a top-five quarterback in 2013. However, his gaudy passing stats came under offensive coordinator Jay Gruden’s pass-centric game plans, and Gruden has been replaced by Hue Jackson. Jackson has promised to tailor his offense towards the running game which makes it unlikely that the Bengals finish in the top-ten in pass attempts again in 2014. Dalton has his shortcomings, the most obvious being his deep ball accuracy but teaming up with a dynamic playmaker like A.J. Green; he’ll still have his share of big games. However, many times Green is forced to adjust to the ball in the air slowing him down and keeping him from scoring even more long touchdowns than he does. Marvin Jones suffered a broken foot and is expected to miss the early season games, but Mohammad Sanu has stepped up in his place through the preseason and should be a more than adequate compliment on the opposite side of the field from Green. Running back Giovani Bernard adds playmaking ability out of the backfield and tight ends Germaine Greschem and Tyler Eifert present additional targets for Dalton to work with. This could be a make or break year for the red headed quarterback, and a solid ground game should lead to even better efficiency and hopefully a reduction in costly mistakes. Dalton’s 20 interceptions last season and his horrendous playoff appearances put him squarely on the hot seat in 2014.

The Ravens faced many defensive defections following their miraculous Super Bowl run in 2012 and what was once a feared defense became mediocre as the young players never really gelled. The Ravens allowed 230 passing yards per game and 25 touchdown passes in 2013, but the unit should show some improvement this season. Terrell Suggs and Elvis Dumervil form a formidable duo rushing the passer. Suggs struggled late last season after adding some weight, but has slimmed back down and his torn Achilles should be way back in his rearview mirror now.

Running Game Thoughts: As mentioned previously new offensive coordinator Hue Jackson has promised a more balanced attack in order to protect Andy Dalton from having to do too much, and thus limiting his mistakes. The dynamic Giovani Bernard should be the focal point of the offense after losing too many touches to the pedestrian Ben Jarvis Green-Ellis last season, but a “thunder and lightning” offense should still be in effect. The difference this season is that the “thunder” should pack more punch as rookie Jeremy Hill is a superior talent to the now released Green-Ellis. Hill was auditioned for a big role in the last preseason game and responded with 160 total yards on 26 touches. Bernard will be heavily involved in the passing game with the hopes of getting him out in space. At times last season he showed change of direction abilities reminiscent of Barry Sanders. Jackson was able to use both Darren McFadden and Michael Bush very effective during his time in Oakland making the Bengals backfield a very attractive option.

The Ravens’ run defense remained stingy last year, allowing only 105 yards per game and 7 touchdowns on the ground. The team could not be more solid up the middle with Haloti Ngata at nose tackle and Daryl Smith at middle linebacker. The battle in the trenches could be the key to this NFC North matchup.

Projections:
Andy Dalton: 235 pass yds 1 TD, 5 rush yds
Jeremy Hill: 65 rush yds, 1 TD, 10 rec yds
Giovani Bernard: 55 rush yds, 45 rec yds
A.J. Green: 85 rec yds, 1 TD
Mohamed Sanu: 40 rec yds
Jermaine Gresham: 30 rec yds
Tyler Eifert: 15 rec yds

Passing Game Thoughts: Joe Flacco struggled during his first season after being paid like a franchise quarterback. While he threw for more yards than he ever has in his career (3,912) his TD-to-INT ratio was in the red (19:22) for the first time in his career. The offensive line did not do him any favors as he was sacked a career high 48 times, but Flacco struggled with accuracy and the offense never looked in sync. The team brought in Gary Kubiak as offensive coordinator to replace Jim Caldwell who departed to take the Lions head coaching job, and Kubiak has vowed to protect Flacco better by using bootlegs and moving pockets. Flacco isn’t the most nimble quarterback, but can move well for a big man. The team added veteran Steve Smith who looked to be on his last legs with the Panthers last season, but has been reborn so far this preseason. Smith and Torrey Smith should give the team decent production on the outside, but the true beneficiary of the new offense should be Dennis Pitta. Pitta is now 100% in his recovery from hip surgery and has been featured all over the field in Kubiak’s tight end friendly scheme. Flacco will likely never be a fantasy QB1, but a bounce back year for the Baltimore passing game is a solid bet to take.

The Bengals finished the season as the 5th ranked pass defense, allowing 209 yards per game and 22 touchdown passes on the season. The return of Geno Atkins from ACL surgery should help the pass rush that missed his push up the middle last season. An already strong secondary was bolstered by first round draft pick Darqueze Dernard this offseason. The Bengals should once again trot out one of the league’s most feared defenses in 2014.

Running Game Thoughts: Ray Rice was suspended for the first two games of 2014 after infamously being caught on tape dragging his then fiancée out of an Atlantic City elevator after allegedly knocking her unconscious. Third year back out of Temple Bernard Pierce steps into the starting role and should be an ideal fit for Gary Kubiak’s one cut and go run blocking scheme. Pierce missed some time in the preseason with a concussion but has been cleared to play and should see significant carries. The 6-foot 230-pound back has surprising speed for a back his size and will be looking to make it tough on Kubiak and head Coach Jon Harbaugh when Ray Rice returns. The run blocking was subpar last season, but the new scheme could breathe some life back into the unit.

The Bengals feature feared line backer Vontaze Burfict who led the team with 115 tackles last season. Overall the Bengals finished as the fifth-ranked run defense allowing lee than 100 yards per game rushing and a mere 6 touchdowns on the season in 2013. This is not an ideal matchup for Pierce, but the volume he receives could make him a RB2 in Week 1.

Projections:
Joe Flacco: 245 pass yds, 1 TD, 1 INT, 15 rush yd
Bernard Pierce: 75 rush yds, 1 TD, 15 rec yds
Justin Forsett: 15 rush yds, 20 rec yards
Torrey Smith: 85 rec yds, 1 TD
Steve Smith: 45 rec yds
Dennis Pitta: 70 rec yds

Prediction: Bengals 20, Ravens 17 ^ Top

Browns at Steelers - (Marcoccio)

Passing Game Thoughts: The Browns drafted Johnny “Football” Manziel in the first round of the 2014 NFL Draft, but its journeyman Brian Hoyer who will get the start in Week 1 at the quarterback position. Neither player performed well this preseason, but new head coach Rich Pettine has decided that the veteran gives them the best chance to win. Hoyer started his career as a backup to Tom Brady in New England and has spent time with Arizona and Pittsburgh before landing last season in Cleveland where he played well in two starts before tearing his ACL. Working against Hoyer is the fact that star wide receiver Josh Gordon has been suspended for the season leaving the team perilously thin at the position. Former Cowboy Miles Austin has had some success in the NFL but chronic hamstring injuries have ruined a once promising career. Andrew Hawkins has the speed and quickness to make some big plays but at 5’7” he’s stretched as a starting wideout. It will be tight end Jordan Cameron that should be the focus of the passing game. In the two games that Gordon was suspended last season, Cameron caught 14 passes for 203 yards and a score. The athletic 6’5” tight end should at least match his 80 catches for 917 yards and 7 touchdowns from last season, but the upside is there for more.

The Steelers aging defense managed to still be effective against the pass last season allowing 221.6 yards per game with 22 touchdowns, but only managed to grab 10 interceptions. Coordinator Dick LeBeau still has a creative defensive mind and the secondary doesn’t lack in talent so another top 10 season could be in the works.

Running Game Thoughts: The Browns targeted former Texan Ben Tate in free agency, and with his former coach being a Mike Shanahan disciple, Tate is very familiar with offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan’s run blocking schemes. Tate is a hard-nosed runner that doesn’t have much wiggle but has shown good vision and burst and doesn’t leave many yards on the field. The team drafted Terrance West in the third round of the draft, and talked him up as a serious threat to Tate’s job during OTAs and early camp, but the small school talent seemed to fade away as the preseason wore on. The Browns feature an above average offensive line, and will lean heavily of the run as a staple of their offense. Tate has shown a penchant for getting nicked up even in a limited role in the past, but if he stays healthy a strong RB2 season is well within reach based the very nice situation he finds himself a part of.

Where the Steelers truly showed their age was with their inability to shut down opposing running games. The Steelers allowed 115.6 yards per game and 18 rushing touchdowns on the season. Troy Polamalu put together a healthy season in 2013 but wasn’t the force that he once was as age and a long injury history look to be taking their toll on the long haired wonder.

Projections:
Brian Hoyer: 205 pass yds 1 TD, 1 INT
Ben Tate: 85 rush yds, 2 TDs, 20 rec yds
Terrance West: 35 rush yds, 25 rec yds
Miles Austin: 55 rec yds
Andrew Hawkins: 30 rec yds
Jordan Cameron: 65 rec yds, 1 TD

Passing Game Thoughts: It took a while for Ben Roethlisberger to get used to offensive coordinator Todd Haley’s dink and dunk type offense after spending years in Bruce Arians’ downfield attacking scheme, but in the second half of last season the offense was humming along nicely and Big Ben was putting up QB1 statistics. Antonio Brown broke out big time after the departure of top wide receiver Mike Wallace in free agency catching 110 passes for nearly 1,500 yards and 8 touchdowns. Brown is a possession type wide receiver that can get open over the middle and make things happen after the catch, but can also get deep on opposing corners. The team let Emmanuel Sanders walk in free agency and will expect second year wide receiver Markus Wheaton to seize the number two job. Wheaton and Roethlisberger have not exhibited good chemistry during the preseason but they should get on the same page soon enough. The underrated former Saint Lance Moore (out this week with a groin injury) rounds out the starting trio and could become a Ben favorite as the season progress. A healthy, albeit aging, Heath Miller should also squeeze out another productive season and should find himself as Ben’s second after Brown look more often than not.

The Browns already had one of the top cornerbacks in the league in Joe Haden, but traded back to spot 8 and chose Justin Gilbert in the first round of this year’s draft. Gilbert has struggled through the preseason but has the talent to make life miserable for passing games facing the Browns as he learns on the job. Haden should shadow Antonio Brown throughout the game but that didn’t hurt Brown much the last time that happened, as he was able to grab 5 balls for 80 yards and a score.

Running Game Thoughts: Le’Veon Bell didn’t have an efficient season as a rookie but his heavy volume of touches allowed him to put up some nice fantasy statistics. In his defense, Bell missed the entire preseason and the first three games of the regular season so his learning curve was steep. He finished the year with 860 yards rushing with 8 touchdowns and was surprisingly a big part of the passing attack catching 45 balls for 399 yards. At only 21 years old (now 22) he was the youngest running back in the league and has room to improve. The Steelers brought in some tougher competition for those touches, however, signing LeGarrette Blount who finished the season strong for New England and excelled in the playoffs. Blount lacks versatility, but is a very good power runner who can help the Steelers wear down opposing defenses.

Cleveland has a very strong front seven after adding former Arizona Cardinal stand out run stopper Carlos Dansby to the mix. In 2013 the Browns gave up 111.3 yards per game and 13 scores on the ground. Those numbers could very well improve this season.

Projections:
Ben Roethlisberger: 255 pass yds, 2 TDs, 20 rush yds
Le’Veon Bell: 75 rush yds, 40 rec yds, 1 TD
LeGarrette Blount: 45 rush yds, 1 TD
Antonio Brown: 105 rec yds, 1 TD
Markus Wheaton: 30 rec yds
Lance Moore: 25 rec yds
Heath Miller: 40 rec yds

Prediction: Steelers 27, Browns 24 ^ Top