Passing
Game Thoughts: Teddy Bridgewater was one of the more talked
about “sleeper” quarterbacks heading into the 2015
fantasy season, but the Vikings’ signal caller has seemingly
fallen into a deep slumber himself over the past two weeks. After
a solid performance against the Packers where he threw for nearly
300 yards, Bridgewater has since failed to throw a touchdown pass
in either of his past two games while throwing an interception
in each and for fewer than 300 total yards in those two contests.
Needless to say, things have gotten pretty bad for the Minnesota
passing game as none of the team’s receivers have done much
of anything. Stefon Diggs has caught just six passes for 53 yards
during the two week skid while Mike Wallace has caught just two
total passes for 43 yards.
It’s true that the Vikings were up against a red hot Seattle
defense this past week, but things won’t likely get much
easier for the unit this week as they head to Arizona to play
the Cardinals. Arizona ranks sixth in the league - just one spot
behind Seattle - in fewest fantasy points given up to opposing
quarterbacks this season and they’re coming off their best
performance of the season when they held Nick Foles to just 146
yards, no touchdowns and an interception. The secondary highlighted
by Patrick Peterson and Tyrann Mathieu is one of the absolute
best in the league and should have a fairly easy time keeping
the Vikings’ receivers in check. If there’s one spot
where the Cardinals are a little weak against the pass, it’s
against tight ends. They’ve given up an average of 5.5 receptions
for 59 yards per game to tight ends over their past six games,
while also conceding four touchdowns to the position during that
stretch. Perhaps only tight end Kyle Rudolph - who has been targeted
23 times over his past three games - is a viable fantasy option
in this passing game right now, and even he is very borderline
as a TE1 for those in deeper leagues.
Running Game Thoughts: He still leads the NFL in rushing yardage,
but Adrian Peterson had one of the worst fantasy days of his prolific
career this past week when he rushed for just 18 yards on eight
carries. While he did add four receptions for those in PPR formats,
he totaled just six yards on those catches, making his day a massive
flop in all scoring formats. It makes sense that an offense that
fell behind multiple touchdowns early in the game would not lean
heavily on their running game, but the complete lack of touches
for Peterson highlights what makes running backs such a risky
position for fantasy football. Gameflow can simply take an elite
player and make him worthless on a given week. Still, Peterson’s
overall production this season has been excellent and prior to
the surprising blowout loss to the Seahawks, he had scored five
touchdowns over his previous four games while totaling a whopping
531 yards on the ground. When the Vikings are at least competitive
in games, they continue to feed the ball to their star, making
him one of the safest plays in fantasy despite his disappointing
performance this past week.
Like other members of the Vikings offense, Peterson could be
in for a tough day here in Week 14 as he will be attempting to
run against an Arizona run defense that has been exceptional.
The Cardinals have conceded the fewest rushing yards (782) in
the league so far this season. Worse yet, they’ve seemingly
been getting better. Opposing teams have rushed for an average
of just under 52 yards per game over their past six games. On
the bright side for Peterson owners, despite the fact that they’ve
held running backs in check from a yardage standpoint, they’ve
actually given up five total touchdowns to running backs over
that same six game stretch. Don’t expect the Vikings to
put a ton of points on the board in this game, but if they do,
there’s a good chance that Peterson will be a part of it.
Insert him into your lineups as usual, but temper your expectations
in what is a tough matchup.
Passing
Game Thoughts: The monster season for Carson Palmer continued
this past week in another blowout win this past week as the Cardinals
rolled into St. Louis and stomped the Rams in front of their home
crowd. Palmer was great again, throwing for 356 yards and a pair
of touchdowns. It was Palmer’s eighth 300-yard day of the
season and marked the ninth time that he succeeded in throwing
multiple touchdown passes in a game this year. Needless to say,
Palmer and the Cardinals have one of the highest-powered passing
games in all of football and all three of their top receivers
have been playing a crucial role. The top dog in the offense continues
to be Larry Fitzgerald. His eight-catch day this past week marked
the fifth straight game that he has made at least eight catches
in a game and the eighth time he’s done it this year. Unfortunately,
his scoring drought has now fallen to four games, but he continues
to produce at a consistently high level in PPR formats and remains
a must-start in any league. Fellow veteran Michael Floyd also
had a big game this past week, catching seven of the 12 passes
that went his way for 104 yards. Floyd missed Week 11 and most
of Week 12 with an injury, but aside from those two games has
been an absolute monster as of late. If you remove Week 11 and
12, Floyd has gone over 100 yards and/or scored a touchdown in
five straight contests. Once forgotten about, Floyd appears to
finally be showing the high potential that made him a first round
NFL Draft pick. Finally, young wide receiver John Brown has been
the third option for much of the season but has still been able
to produce viable fantasy options most weeks. He’s scored
a touchdown and/or been over 100 yards receiving in five of his
past six games as well.
The scorching hot Arizona offense does have a somewhat difficult
matchup this week against the Vikings, but if this past week is
any indication, the Minnesota defense might be beginning to unravel
a bit. Russell Wilson threw for 274 yards and three touchdowns
while also rushing for 51 yards and a touchdown against Minnesota
and while Palmer isn’t likely to do much as a runner, there’s
no doubting that the Arizona passing offense is much better than
Seattle’s. It’s been huge fantasy performance after
huge fantasy performance for the Cardinals so far this season,
so Palmer throwing for another 300-plus yard, multiple touchdown
game wouldn’t be surprising.
Running Game Thoughts: No Chris Johnson? No Andre Ellington?
No problem. Rookie David Johnson finally got his chance to show
what he can do with a full workload this past week and he seemed
to pass the test. The talented young runner just barely fell short
of his first 100-yard rushing day as he finished with 99 yards
on the ground, but he also added two receptions for 21 yards and
a touchdown in the passing game. Backup running back Kerwynn Williams
did show some explosion, rushing for 59 yards on six carries himself,
but this appears to be the David Johnson show for the time being.
Johnson played 70 percent of the Cardinals’ offensive snaps
and that number could even increase now that Stepfan Taylor is
recovering from a shoulder injury that knocked him out of the
game this past week.
With Ellington expected to miss this week’s game, look
for the Cardinals to continue to feed the ball to Johnson, even
in what could be considered a fairly difficult matchup against
a Minnesota defense that has conceded the ninth-fewest fantasy
points to running backs so far in 2015. Minnesota had been excellent
through the middle part of the season including a five game stretch
of holding opposing running backs to fewer than 100 yards, but
they’ve since slipped a bit in recent weeks. This past week,
it was rookie Thomas Rawls who beat up the defense, rushing for
101 yards and a touchdown while veteran Fred Jackson added a touchdown
as a receiver. Including that game, the Vikings have now conceded
at least 100 rushing yards to opposing running backs in three
straight contests. One of those 100-yard games even came from
Eddie Lacy, who has been anything but spectacular. While Arizona
is a pass-heavy offense, there is enough production to go around
that Johnson remains a must-start for most fantasy owners.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Philip Rivers was one of the hottest quarterbacks
in the league at the beginning of the season, but a slew of injuries
have caused his once promising fantasy season to become a roller
coaster ride of ups and downs. The volatility has been particularly
high over the past few weeks as he has failed to throw a single
touchdown pass in two of his past three games, but had four touchdown
passes against Jacksonville in the sandwich game. Of course, some
of that has been matchup-based as the Broncos and Chiefs are certainly
good defenses while the Jaguars have some holes that are exploitable,
but the lack of consistency has to give fantasy owners some pause.
Now with top target Stevie Johnson nursing a groin injury that
knocked him out this past week and Dontrelle Inman having not
practiced as of Thursday, the Chargers passing offense is even
more depleted. The top wide receiver in the offense will likely
be Malcom Floyd who himself is coming back from injury, but beyond
that, there are a lot of question marks as to who is going to
be catching the ball for the Chargers here in Week 14.
Even if Johnson and Inman do play, it will be tough to trust
Rivers who struggled against this very Kansas City defense just
three weeks ago. In that game, Rivers threw for a season-low 178
yards and no touchdowns with an interception – his worst
fantasy day of the year so far. Worse yet, that performance came
at home. In Week 14, he’ll be on the road in a loud Arrowhead
Stadium, playing against a Kansas City team that is hungry to
get back to the playoffs. On a positive note for Rivers owners,
the Chiefs haven’t been quite as good against the pass over
their past two games as both Derek Carr and Tyrod Taylor threw
multiple touchdowns against the defense. Still, this is a tough
matchup for Rivers and his teammates, particularly for Antonio
Gates and Ladarius Green, going up against a Kansas City defense
that has conceded the fewest fantasy points to opposing tight
ends in the league so far this year.
Running Game Thoughts: The Chargers running game has been a tough
one to get a read on this season as both Melvin Gordon and Danny
Woodhead are being utilized enough to be considered, but neither
player has been producing enough to be an every week fantasy starter.
Gordon in particular has been frustrating to own as the rookie
tailback has not yet scored a single touchdown on the year despite
having rushed for 565 yards. Meanwhile, Woodhead has really only
been valuable in PPR formats where his 56 receptions are third
in the league at the position. His 254 rushing yards, though,
are less than stellar and he hasn’t scored more than three
points in standard scoring formats any of his past three games.
The Chargers running backs are in for another tough game, as
well. The Chiefs defense has been excellent against opposing running
backs this season, having conceded just the sixth-fewest fantasy
points to the position on the year. When these teams played just
three weeks ago, the Chiefs held the entire San Diego backfield
to a total of 44 rushing yards. They didn’t do much in the
receiving game, either, as Woodhead was held to a season-low one
catch for nine yards while Gordon caught just one pass for 12
yards himself. The Chargers could fall behind in this game which
would make it very hard for them to run the ball, so it might
be wise to look elsewhere for fantasy production at the running
back position here in Week 14.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Alex Smith has finally ascended to the point
of being the No. 11-scoring quarterback in standard scoring leagues,
making him a QB1 for the first time this season. Smith has thrown
for multiple touchdowns in back-to-back games for the first time
this year. This past week, he threw for just 162 yards, but threw
for two touchdowns and ran in an additional score as the Chiefs
were able to put up an impressive 34 points on the board in a
road win over the Raiders. Jeremy Maclin has once again Smith’s
favorite target over the past few weeks after a long drought during
the middle of the season. Maclin has caught an impressive 18 passes
for 255 yards and three touchdowns over his past two games. The
team’s only other fantasy relevant pass catcher has been
tight end Travis Kelce who has been a bit disappointing on the
year, but is still the sixth-highest-scoring tight end in the
league in 2015.
Smith and the Chiefs do have a decent matchup here in Week 14
as they go up against a middle-of-the-pack San Diego defense that
has done a good job of preventing huge games, but have rarely
held opposing QB’s to bad fantasy days. Smith continues
to be only a borderline fantasy starter due to his own lack of
a high ceiling, but he is very reliable as a solid week-to-week
QB2 in two-quarterback leagues. Smith has scored at least 13 fantasy
points (standard scoring) in every game except one so far this
season. Of course, one of those 13-point low days came against
this very San Diego defense just three weeks back when he threw
for 253 yards but failed to throw a touchdown pass. Maclin is
red hot and deserves to be started in all leagues while Kelce
has been good enough to be a TE1 for most teams, but Smith should
probably be on the bench unless you’re just looking for
a solid, unspectacular game from your QB.
Running Game Thoughts: It doesn’t seem to matter who is
running the ball – Kansas City is simply running the ball
extremely effectively this season. The Chiefs are closing in on
1,500 yards rushing as a team despite losing their best offensive
weapon, Jamaal Charles, early in the season. Backup Charcandrick
West has been very effective, but he also suffered an injury which
then led to Spencer Ware getting some playing time, who also put
up great numbers. Now Ware and West appear to be in a dreaded
running back by committee situation, but thankfully it’s
at least in an offense that has been putting points on the board
and that runs the ball relentlessly near the goal line.
West is likely to get more total touches, but Ware seems to be
the preferred runner near the goal line, meaning that both players
should have some value as they run against a San Diego defense
that has been terrible against the run so far this season. The
Chargers have given up the fourth-most fantasy points per game
to the position and have given up a whopping nine games of 100-plus
rushing yards to opposing running backs. West got injured when
these teams played back in Week 11, but Ware stepped right in
and rushed for 96 yards and two touchdowns in the Chiefs’
blowout win. The Chargers should be able to score more than the
three points they scored when these teams played the first time,
but it wouldn’t be at all surprising to see Kansas City
get out to a multiple score lead early in the game, which could
lead to a very heavy dose of West and Ware. Both players are RB2’s
for the time being, but both also have RB1 upside in this great
matchup.
Passing
Game Thoughts: The Lions’ season might be over already,
but don’t tell them that. The Detroit offense seems to be
finding at least some consistency over their past few games which
has helped elevate quarterback Matt Stafford into the starting
fantasy QB conversation. Stafford has thrown for an average of
270 yards over his past four games, adding 10 total touchdowns
over that stretch, including a massive five passing touchdown
day on Thanksgiving against Philadelphia. Along with Stafford’s
hot streak has come big games from top wide receiver Calvin Johnson.
Johnson has seven touchdowns on the season and four of them have
come over his past two games. Johnson hasn’t been spectacular,
but he has been very good, particularly in PPR formats where he
has scored at least 10 fantasy points in every game since Week
1. Golden Tate has been quietly getting more involved in the offense
as well, having caught 23 passes over his past three games.
Stafford and Co. could have a tough matchup here in Week 14,
however, as they head to St. Louis to challenge a Rams defense
that has given up the seventh-fewest fantasy points per game to
opposing quarterbacks so far this season. The Rams were unbelievable
against the pass early in the year when they held opposing QB’s
to one or zero touchdown passes in seven of their first eight
games. They haven’t been quite as good as of late, as they’ve
given up nine touchdown passes over their past four games. This
past week, it was Arizona’s Carson Palmer who lit them up
for a pair of touchdowns and 362 yards – the most yards
that the Rams have given up to any QB this season. With Stafford
playing well and the Rams struggling, it’s very possible
that this is a better fantasy matchup than it appears at first
glance on the season-long stat sheets.
Running Game Thoughts: The Detroit passing game has been improving,
but their running game continues to struggle. Rookie running back
Ameer Abdullah has actually had his two best rushing performances
of the season over his past two games, but those games are only
63 and 67 yards – not exactly huge fantasy days –
and he hasn’t scored a touchdown since Week 3. Joique Bell
continues to get a fair percentage of the touches, but aside from
a single touchdown in Week 12, he hasn’t done much of anything.
The team’s best fantasy running back has actually been Theo
Riddick who has been unusable in standard scoring formats, but
an under-the-radar sleeper in PPR formats. Riddick’s 60
receptions on the season are more than any other running back
in the league, making him a top-20 fantasy running back in PPR
formats despite barely cracking the top 40 in standard scoring
formats.
The Lions backs do have a nice matchup here in Week 14. While
the Rams front-seven is above average, they’ve actually
conceded the 7th-most fantasy points per game to opposing running
backs this season. In fact, they’ve given up at least 90
rushing yards in all but four games while giving up nine touchdowns
to the position. Worse yet, they had one of their worst games
of the season this past week when they allowed rookie David Johnson
and the Cardinals backs light them up for 178 rushing yards and
score two total touchdowns. Detroit’s running backs aren’t
particularly strong and their offense is certainly pass-heavy,
but fantasy owners could do worse at their Flex position than
Abdullah or Riddick in PPR formats.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Another blowout loss led to the firing of
St. Louis Rams offensive coordinator Frank Cignetti this past
week. The Rams had not scored more than 13 points in a game since
Week 9 and things seemed to only be getting worse, so perhaps
a move was needed if for no other reason than to send a message
to the rest of the coaching staff. Assistant head coach Rob Boras
will take over play calling duties, but the lack of actual talent,
especially in the passing game, seems to be evident at this point.
Quarterback Nick Foles has failed to throw a touchdown pass in
five of his past six games and he threw just one touchdown in
the other. This horrendous stretch has once again led to Foles
being benched for Case Keenum, who will start this weekend unless
there is some sort of setback in his concussion recovery. Of course,
the poor play of Foles has meant very little production from any
of the St. Louis pass catchers as this might be the least fantasy
relevant passing game in the entire league. The team’s leading
pass catcher, Tavon Austin, has just 38 receptions on the year
and despite being involved as a runner as well, has not been anything
resembling a consistent fantasy asset. Austin has caught four
or fewer passes in all but three games this season. No other player
in the St. Louis passing game is worth fantasy consideration at
this point.
There is some hope for the St. Louis passing game this week as
they go up against a Detroit defense that has been mediocre against
the pass this season. The Lions have given up multiple passing
touchdowns in eight of their 12 games, including five of their
past six. The ceiling is still very low as the Lions have only
given up three touchdowns once and they haven’t given up
more than three passing touchdowns in any game. Of course, the
most important factor is that the St. Louis’ passing offense
just isn’t very talented and they’re not likely to
suddenly break out here in Week 14 after firing their offensive
coordinator, but hey – if you’re desperate and need
a Flex play, Austin is someone who’s likely going to touch
the ball around 10 total times and he does have the playmaking
ability to turn any of those touches into a score.
Running Game Thoughts: Todd Gurley is still in the running to
be the NFL rookie of the year, but the complete collapse that
has been the St. Louis offense this season has certainly affected
him. Gurley has touched the ball a total of just 19 times over
his past two games – both blowout Rams losses – and
one would have to believe that this was a big reason why a change
was made at offensive coordinator. New offensive coordinator Rob
Boras spoke highly of Gurley to the press during the week, noting
that he’s simply too talented to not give the ball to more
often. That alone has to give fantasy owners some additional confidence
heading into this game. Gurley has scored at least one touchdown
and/or gone over 100 rushing yards in every game that he’s
touched the ball 20 or more times this season.
If the Rams simply make a commitment to getting him the ball,
as it appears they will, Gurley should be in line for a solid
fantasy day against a Detroit defense that has struggled at times
to slow down the run this season. The Lions have given up four
100-yard rushing days to opposing running backs, but where fantasy
running backs have really made their money is at the goal line.
Opposing RBs have rushed for a total of 12 touchdowns against
Detroit so far this year – tied for second-most in the NFL.
If St. Louis is going to win this game, they’re going to
need to control the clock and keep the Detroit offense off the
field utilizing their running game. It’s tough to trust
a player who has been so disappointing over his past two games,
especially now that we’re in the playoffs in many fantasy
leagues, but Gurley is the most talented player in this offense
and the coaching staff has been put on notice that they need to
start putting up numbers. What better way to do that than by getting
the ball into your best player’s hands?
Passing
Game Thoughts: In a season with quite a few breakout stars,
perhaps no team has more impressive young playmakers than the
Oakland Raiders. It’s been a long time since we’ve
been able to say that, but this offensive unit, led by second-year
quarterback Derek Carr, has certainly been impressive this season.
Carr’s 26 touchdowns and nine interceptions are among the
best TD-to-INT ratios in the league. Meanwhile, his top two receivers,
Michael Crabtree and Amari Cooper have been putting up some great
numbers. Crabtree leads the team in receptions (66) and has seven
touchdowns on the season. He has also scored a touchdown in each
of his past two games. Cooper has also been a beast, leading the
team with 920 yards, including 184 yards over his past two games.
Fantasy owners who are heading to into their playoffs here in
Week 14 might want to consider looking elsewhere for fantasy production
this week, however, as the Raiders will be heading into Denver
to face the division-leading Broncos. Denver has been unbelievable
on defense this season, particularly against the pass where they
have held opposing quarterbacks to just 10.5 fantasy points per
game (standard scoring) – an impressive 2.5 points per game
fewer than any other team in the league. Earlier this season,
the Denver defense held the Raiders to just 249 yards passing
and one touchdown with an interception forced. Both Cooper and
Crabtree were held in check that day as the Broncos as both were
held to just four catches and no touchdowns. It’s worth
noting that Cooper caught every pass that went his way that day
while Crabtree’s four catches came on nine targets, but
it won’t necessarily be that way again at this point in
the season. Cooper had just four professional games under his
belt when these teams played back in Week 5 and now that he has
proven to be a viable top receiver, the Broncos might opt to shade
a bit more coverage his way. Cooper has been targeted 20 times
over his past two games while Crabtree has been targeted 19 times.
Both players are likely to see the ball come their way plenty,
so don’t be afraid to roll them out in your lineups even
in this tough matchup.
Running Game Thoughts: It’s been an up and down season,
but Oakland running back Latavius Murray is currently the No.
11 running back in fantasy football. Of course, some of that has
to do with the unusually high number of injuries that have taken
their toll on high-end running backs, but still – Murray
has been good enough to be a fantasy starter most weeks. Murray
had one of his better fantasy days of the season this past week
in a very tough matchup against the Chiefs, totaling 97 yards
with a touchdown in the loss. Of course, his best chances for
big games come when the Raiders get ahead by multiple scores versus
play from behind, but he’s a decent enough receiver that
he can also make plays in the passing game if the team falls behind,
which has helped give him a fairly high fantasy floor.
Murray’s floor could be tested this week in perhaps the
toughest matchup he’ll face all season. The Broncos have
not allowed a team to rush for 100 yards against them since all
the way back in Week 2, while holding opposing backs to fewer
than 50 yards in three contests. Murray himself had his worst
fantasy day of the season when he rushed for just 39 yards on
13 carries against the Broncos back in Week 5. Oakland is a pass-first
offense, but the Denver secondary is so good that the Raiders
might opt to lean more heavily on Murray in this tough road division
game. Still, this is not a particularly great matchup for Murray,
who falls to a mid-to-low-end RB2 this week.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Future Hall of Fame quarterback Peyton Manning
returned to limited practice this week, but Brock Osweiler will
keep the starting job – at least for the time being. Osweiler
has gone 3-0, including knocking off the then-undefeated Patriots,
since taking over for Manning, making the case that he should
remain the team’s starter for the remainder of the season
even after Manning comes back. Osweiler has been decent, but not
spectacular from a fantasy point in his three starts, averaging
229 passing yards per game while throwing four total touchdown
passes with two interceptions. Like Manning, he’s not mobile
enough to make many plays with his legs, but he’s also not
making the game-threatening mistakes that Manning had been making
earlier in the year. Unfortunately, he’s not exactly locking
in on any receivers, either, which has made the Broncos’
pass catchers tough to trust as of late. Only Emmanuel Sanders
has gone over 100 yards in a game since Osweiler took over, but
he then followed that big game up with a complete dud this past
week in a good matchup against the Chargers when he caught just
three passes for 19 yards. Demaryius Thomas has scored twice in
the three games with Osweiler, but he has only compiled a total
of 10 receptions for 156 yards in those games.
Osweiler has likely circled this Week 14 matchup on his calendar
as a potential breakout game, as he’s going up against an
Oakland defense that has been horrible against opposing passing
games so far in 2015. The Raiders are on pace to give up over
4,500 passing yards on the season, making them one of the worst
pass defenses in the league. They’ve given up at least at
least 17 points to the opposing quarterback in all but two of
their games this season. Of course, it’s worth noting that
their best performance came back in Week 5 when they held this
very offense – then under the leadership of Manning –
to 266 yards through the air with no touchdowns and two interceptions.
Otherwise, the Raiders have been very giving to quarterbacks and
particularly to opposing tight ends, where they’ve given
up a league-leading 11 touchdowns to the position. Vernon Davis
and Owen Daniels continue to compete for looks, but both players
have a decent potential for a touchdown in this matchup and could
find themselves in fantasy lineups for those looking for potential
at the position.
Running Game Thoughts: The Denver offense as a whole continues
to fluctuate wildly, but it’s good to see the running back
duo pick up steam at seasons’ end. Ronnie Hillman has seen
more touches, but both he and C.J. Anderson are getting the ball
regularly enough that they both have some fantasy value. Anderson
had his biggest fantasy day of the season just two weeks ago when
he ran the ball 15 times for 113 yards and a pair of scores, reminding
fantasy owners of the potential that made him a first or second
round fantasy pick in most leagues heading into the season. He’s
been one of the more disappointing players in all of fantasy,
but the reason that many liked him pre-season is that he did such
a great job of closing out games for the Broncos in 2014. Now
that Denver is playing for playoff position, watch for them to
rely on the running game a bit more heavily in an effort to preserve
their superstar wide receivers for a potential Super Bowl push.
The Broncos running back duo should be able to find at least
some running room this week against a Raiders defense that has
conceded an average of 17 fantasy points per game (standard scoring)
to the position this season. Hillman and Anderson were extremely
ineffective, however, when these teams met back in Week 5, as
they rushed for a combined 43 yards on 18 carries. Still, unless
the Broncos offense starts moving the ball more efficiently through
the passing game and the running game at the same time, there
just aren’t enough opportunities for the goal line touchdowns
that both players are likely to have good fantasy days in the
same game. Because of that, it’s wise that fantasy owners
continue to hold Anderson on their benches, at least while Hillman
is still getting the larger bulk of the carries. Pay attention
to the practice notes for the Broncos on Friday, as well. Both
Hillman and Anderson are expected to practice, but neither has
been on the field as of Thursday, meaning that if they aren’t
practicing by Friday, the team might have to turn to Juwan Thompson
to shoulder a heavier than usual portion of the workload.
Passing
Game Thoughts: With Marshawn Lynch injured and the Seattle
defense not being what it once was, it’s only natural that
Russell Wilson would need to take the next step and be asked to
carry the offense a little more, and that’s just what he’s
done the last three weeks. Wilson has accounted for 12 touchdowns,
including one rushing score, over the last three games while averaging
286 passing yards. The Seahawks haven’t missed Jimmy Graham
much, but he was still a dangerous weapon that opposing defenses
needed to account for and his loss could be a major blow over
the rest of the season. Doug Baldwin is having his best season
as a professional and has looked like a starting wide receiver
over the last two weeks where he has hauled in five of his career
high eight touchdowns this season. Rookie Tyler Lockett set his
season high in catches last week with 7 for 90 yards. The diminutive
receiver has elite level speed and is starting to become much
more than just the kick returner most thought he’d be. He’s
emerged as a dangerous weapon in the passing game.
Wilson should keep his hot streak going while facing a Baltimore
pass defense that has yielded big numbers more often than not
this season. On the season the Ravens are allowing 243.9 passing
yards per game and have allowed 22 passing touchdowns with only
4 interceptions.
Running Game Thoughts: Pete Carroll announced this week that Marshawn
Lynch could be out a little longer than expected and with UDFA
Thomas Rawls doing a more than adequate impersonation of Beast
Mode, there’s no need to rush back the veteran. Rawls does
not run quite as violently as Lynch but at 5’9” and
215 pounds, his compact frame allows him to run with power and
he has enough acceleration and speed to get to the second level
when the holes are there. He’s averaging 5.6 yards per carry
and has four 100-yard games (with one of them exceeding 200 yards)
and 4 touchdowns in the six games where he’s seen at least
15 carries. If you had Lynch and handcuffed Rawls with him, you
are likely not at all concerned about when Lynch is coming back.
In fact you may just be hoping he’s done for the regular
season.
The Ravens run defense is still one of the best in the league
so it’s very possible that Rawls doesn’t see consecutive
100-yard efforts for the first time this season. The Ravens are
allowing only 97.5 rushing yards per game with 6 rushing scores
on the season.
Passing
Game Thoughts: John Harbaugh announced this week that veteran
Matt Schaub would remain the starter at quarterback, despite Schaub
playing like Matt Schaub. Schaub had some success earlier in his
career with the Houston Texans, but has since floundered into
a turnover machine and is more known for throwing pick-sixes than
touchdown passes and he’s lived up to it Sunday by throwing
a pick-six for the second time in two weeks. Schaub (chest, shoulder)
missed practice Wednesday and Thursday and could give way to Jimmy
Clausen if he’s not ready by Sunday. The Ravens are down
to starting Kamar Aiken and Chris Givens as their top wide receivers
due to multiple injuries to their roster so even if Schaub or
Clausen were a competent quarterback there wouldn’t be much
to excite fantasy owners here. Aiken has been heavily targeted
in recent weeks, but hasn’t done much with those targets.
Just by sheer volume alone, however, he’s at least on the
radar in PPR leagues.
The Seahawks pass defense is still a top five ranked unit, allowing
220 yards per game with 11 touchdowns against, but it isn’t
the dominating unit it once was. Richard Sherman is still a corner
that fantasy owners should take heed of, but the fact that he
generally sticks to one side of the field and a slight falloff
to his game means you don’t need to necessarily bench top
receivers when Seattle is the opponent. Of course the Ravens don’t
really have a top receiver anyway. The question this week shouldn’t
be if Schaub/Clausen will throw a pick-six but whether you should
take the over if the bar is set at one.
Running Game Thoughts: The Ravens injury woes are not limited
to the passing game. Veteran running back Justin Forsett was also
lost for the season with a broken arm in Week 12. His rookie backup,
Buck Allen, has used the opportunity to set his sights on the
2016 starting job. Allen rushed for 63 yards and caught 12 passes
for 107 yards including turning a dump off pass into a 41-yard
touchdown. Former Brown and Titan, Terrence West, has been worked
into the offense and has looked effective, but Allen is looking
like a potential future workhorse.
Expectations may need to be lowered a bit for this week however,
as Allen will face one of the better run defenses in the league.
The Seahawks are allowing only 87.8 yards per game and have just
9 rushing touchdowns against on the season. This matchup, of course,
will not stop the Ravens from feeding Allen though as the quarterback
will surely need to be protected.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Blaine Gabbert has passed his audition,
which coincided with Colin Kaepernick’s benching, and has
shown that he’s a legitimate backup level quarterback going
forward. At this point, it’s logical to say that he could
head into 2016 as the Niners’ starting quarterback. In four
games he’s completing 63% of his passes for 963 yards with
5 touchdowns and 3 interceptions. He’s also showing some
mobility, as he rushed for 75 yards and a score last week, and
a willingness to attack downfield. He’s also achieved respectability
despite a less than stellar supporting cast. Anquan Boldin is
still a viable possession receiver, but at 35 years of age he’s
no longer a playmaker. Garrett Celek who was the starting tight
end after Vernon Davis was shipped out, was placed on season ending
IR, opening up the door for former second round pick Vance McDonald
who caught 10 balls for 136 yards and 2 touchdowns, prior to leaving
last week’s game with a concussion in the second quarter.
If McDonald can’t go this week, rookie Blake Bell is next
(last) man standing.
One of the only reasons why anyone could be considering a member
of the 49ers passing attack during the fantasy playoffs is that
the Browns will be fielding the 25th ranked pass defense in Cleveland
which is allowing 262.5 yards per game and have given up 25 TDs
through the air with only 8 interceptions. The Browns’ defense
was supposed to be the strength of this team but with cornerback
Joe Haden banged up and ineffective most of the season that has
not materialized. For teams scrounging to replace their starting
quarterback, you could do worse than starting Sunshine Gabbert.
Running Game Thoughts: As if the re-emergence of Blaine Gabbert
wasn’t unlikely enough, career journeyman Shaun Draughn
is also making himself fantasy relevant in his new home. In fact,
he’s been one of the more productive running backs during
the last three weeks in PPR leagues due to his versatility. Draughn
played every snap in Qeek 12, but gave some snaps away to Travaris
Cadet (only 4 tocuhes). Draughn has looked quick and shifty and
has been the biggest weapon in this offense. With Carlos Hyde
still recovering from a stress fracture in his foot and looking
less and less likely to play again this season, it’s probable
that Draughn will finish out the season as the 49ers’ feature
back. While expecting big production would be a little ambitious,
solid RB2 production is good enough for many fantasy owners even
during the playoffs.
Making Draughn even more attractive is that he will be facing
a bottom ranked Browns’ run defense this week. Cleveland
is allowing 136.3 rushing yards per game, at 4.6 yards per carry,
and has yielded 11 rushing touchdowns. They’ve given up
the 6th-most fantasy points to RBs.
Passing
Game Thoughts: As predicted, the Austin Davis era was a
disaster leading head coach Mike Pettine to announce that Johnny
Manziel would start this week’s game. Manziel was coming
off his best game of the season before getting benched for off
field concerns and will now once again get his chance to convince
the next Browns’ regime that he can be a franchise quarterback.
Johnny Football had a good connection with Travis Benjamin in
the games he has played this season but a shoulder injury could
keep the speedy receiver out this week. Benjamin out of nowhere
has put up 54 receptions for 826 yards and 5 touchdowns and is
the Browns only true deep threat. Gary Barnidge is the other “out
of nowhere” star this season. Barnidge at 6’6”
and 250 pounds has put up 60 catches for 817 yards with 7 touchdowns.
He had his biggest games with veteran Josh McCown under center
but did manage a 6-61-1 stat-line in Manziel’s last start.
The 49ers pass defense hasn’t been very good this year allowing
269.9 passing yards per game and 17 scores through the air, but
they have been playing better, holding Carson Palmer and Jay Cutler
in check the last two weeks. Manziel needs to come out and show
he can maintain the success from his last start and with nothing
to lose the team should let him loose.
Running Game Thoughts: Pettine has paid lip service to getting
rookie Duke Johnson more involved but he was still out-touched
by the generally ineffective Isaiah Crowell 12 to 9 last week.
Crowell rushed 11 times for 62 yards which was one of his better
performances in a while, but he’s averaging a poor 3.17
yards per carry on the season. This running game has been a fantasy
wasteland for most of the season and it’s hard to see things
changing anytime soon.
The 49ers do present a nice matchup however. They are a below
average run defense, allowing 125.2 yards per game and 14 rushing
touchdowns on the season. Ideally the Browns will be looking to
exploit their advantage and run the ball which is a formula that
they wanted to employ at the outset of the season, but “the
best laid plans of mice and men…”.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Kirk Cousins has limited his turnovers,
relatively speaking, and has put together a decent season in 2015
as Washington’s starting quarterback. He’s passed
for 3006 yards with 17 touchdowns and 10 interceptions while also
rushing for 3 scores and fumbling three times. When all of his
skill players are healthy, a young quarterback can do far worse
than working with DeSean Jackson, Pierre Garcon, Jamison Crowder
and Jordan Reed. Cousins also has two running backs that work
well out of the backfield in Chris Thompson and rookie Matt Jones.
It’s hard to imagine Cousins not re-signing with Washington
and coming back as a starter in a Jay Gruden offense, which suits
his skill set. He’s not likely ever going to be a great
quarterback but in a league where teams struggle just to find
adequate quarterbacks, he’s as good an option as any the
Skins would find for next season.
Defensive coordinator Vic Fangio has the Bears’ defense
playing far better than anyone could have realistically expected
prior to the season and are second in passing yards allowed (210.5
yds per game), right behind Denver. However, the Bears have allowed
20 passing touchdowns, with most coming earlier in the season
before the unit gelled into what it has become. This is looking
like it should be a low scoring close game where any mistakes
could sway momentum, so Cousins will need to protect the football.
He’s a shaky high-end QB2 on Sunday.
Running Game Thoughts: The Washington backfield has been a three-man
committee with none of the three really establishing themselves
as much of a runner. At least Matt Jones and Chris Thompson have
made some significant contributions in the passing game, but veteran
Alfred Morris, who has never been a great fit for the Gruden offense,
has been a complete disaster in 2015. Morris is averaging only
3.5 yards per carry and has often disappeared from the offense.
Morris has only 47 receptions in four seasons in the league, all
of which he’s been the team’s starting running back.
The team just hasn’t shown much interest in establishing
a running game, and has been ineffective when they have tried.
If Thompson (shoulder) misses this contest, Matt Jones could see
more work in the passing game.
The Bears have been middle of the pack when it comes to run defense
allowing the 18th-most fantasy points to the position with only
4 TDs given up on the ground but 4 given up through the air. They
did allow a 100-yd game to Ronnie Hillman in Week 11 and to Eddie
Lacy in Week 12.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Jay Cutler, like Cousins, is another quarterback
that hasn’t been great but has likely done enough to force
his team’s hand to bring him back next season. He has somewhat
resurrected his career under John Fox and offensive coordinator
Adam Gase, albeit more in a game manager type role than a gunslinger.
For those that have followed Cutler’s career it’s
hard to imagine him making the transition, but in a conservative
offense, he’s done what he’s been asked and has protected
the ball better than he has at almost any time during his career.
Cutler has 33 or less passing attempts in five of his last six
games, making this a passing game to avoid outside of star Alshon
Jeffery. Jeffrey has missed five games this season with various
ailments but has been highly productive when healthy and is by
far the teams’ most dangerous weapon. Expect another conservative
gameplan based heavily on the running game in a game that should
be low scoring and close throughout.
The Redskins’ pass defense, like the Bears’, has been
surprisingly stout this season after a very poor 2014 season.
Washington is the 10th ranked pass defense allowing only 238.3
passing yards per game but have yielded 22 passing touchdowns
on the season against only 9 interceptions.
Running Game Thoughts: Matt Forte
returned two weeks ago and has found himself in a timeshare with
rookie Jeremy Langford who was very productive in Forte’s
absence. This was a true RBBC in Week 12 with each back getting
almost equal touches, making both touchdown dependent on having
good fantasy days. Last week, Forte out-touched Langford 26-to-14
with Forte finding the endzone. Forte realizes that he will not
be back with the team next season, but he’s still good enough
and deserves enough respect that the team will continue to his
him while also further auditioning Langford. Fantasy owners are
not likely to be very happy, but the Bears who like to run a conservative
offense are much better off with two good backs in the mix.
Washington’s poor run defense plays perfectly into what
the Bears will be looking to do on Sunday. The Skins’ run
defense is below average, allowing 124.2 yards per game and 6
rushing touchdowns on the season. Ideally the Bears will be looking
to exploit their advantage and run the ball which is a formula
that has worked relatively well for them this season.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Ben Roethlisberger struggled in Week 8 against
the Bengals in Pittsburgh, throwing for 262 yards with a touchdown
and 3 interceptions on the day, but the Steelers offense wasn’t
clicking like it is now. In the last four weeks, Big Ben has thrown
for 1,533 yards and 10 touchdowns and he is using all of his weapons
effectively. Antonio Brown of course is his main target, but even
the seldom used Markus Wheaton went for over 200 yards in Seattle
two weeks ago. Ben has shown that he can be effective in Todd
Haley’s short passing attack, but he still loves to take
his shots downfield like last week when but he hit Martavis Bryant
for a 68-yd touchdown. Right now this offense is playing too well
to expect the back and forth defensive battle of Week 8, and it’s
much more likely that Andy Dalton is going to need to try and
keep up with the Steelers offense.
On the season the Bengals defense is allowing 240.3 passing yards
per game while giving up 15 passing touchdowns. Last week was
basically a bye week for the unit, facing Austin Davis and the
Cleveland passing attack. They will need to regain their focus
with Ben, Brown, Bryant and Miller coming to the Jungle.
Running Game Thoughts: DeAngelo
Williams hasn’t showed his age all season and surprisingly
the offense has not missed much, if anything, during the games
that he has started over Le’Veon Bell. Last week he was
outstanding, gaining 134 yards on 26 carries. Williams looks as
quick and agile as he has at any time during his career and is
gaining yards in chunks. He has 697 yards and 6 scores on the
ground in while starting only six games. The team will run Williams
into the ground if need be as they look to stay in the playoff
hunt. There isn’t much behind him on the depth chart, and
at age 32 he’s likely only a one year stop gap anyway.
Although Williams did average 7.8 yards per carry in a backup
role the last time he faced the Bengals, expectations should be
tempered against a team that has been very strong against the
run. The Bengals have limited the opposition to 97.2 yards per
game this season with only 4 rushing touchdowns allowed.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Andy Dalton also struggled the last time
these two teams met up, throwing for 231 yards with a touchdown
and two interceptions. It was one of only two times Dalton has
played poorly this season, but he did lead his team to a game
winning touchdown. Like the Steelers, the Bengals have a lot of
weapons on offense with A.J. Green, Tyler Eifert, Mohamed Sanu,
and Marvin Jones along with two capable pass catchers at the running
back position. Eifert missed last week’s game with a neck
injury but is still leading the league with 12 touchdown catches
and is expected to be back this week. With Dalton cutting down
on his turnovers and wisely taking advantage of the team’s
skill position players, he’s developed into a weekly fantasy
option along with Eifert and Green. I’m expecting this game
to be more high scoring this time around.
The young Steelers’ secondary started the season a little
better than advertised, but with the exception of last week against
Indianapolis they have been lit up in recent weeks. They even
allowed Johnny Manziel to have a career game when he threw for
over 300 yards in Pittsburgh in Week 11.
Running Game Thoughts: Whether it
was an ankle injury or just tentative running, Jeremy Hill was
very ineffective in the first half of the season, but he’s
been much better recently. In the last three weeks he’s
totaled 229 rushing yards and 3 touchdowns. He still remains in
a RBBC with Giovani Bernard, but his recent surge has pushed Bernard
back into being used more as a pass catcher which is a more effective
role for him. After looking better in every aspect of the position
earlier in the year, Bernard has been the one struggling to move
the ball on the ground while Hill has reemerged, but he’s
still involved as a pass catcher.
On “paper” this matchup looks to favor Bernard, as
the Steelers possess a strong run defense and the game figures
to be a shootout. Sometimes things do not go according to plan
however and Hill is always capable of scoring a touchdown or two
(he has 8 on the season). So, whether or not you put either of
these backs in your lineup this week will likely be dependent
on your other options as both have some risk - Bernard because
of his recent struggles and Hill due to game flow concerns.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Matt Cassel led the Cowboys to their first
win this season with someone other than Tony Romo playing quarterback.
Cassel wasn’t very good on Monday Night completing only
55% of his passes for 222 yards and did not throw a TD. He hasn’t
been good in any of the games he’s started and he’s
helped bring down an injured Dez Bryant, a rapidly aging Jason
Witten and the uninspiring Terrance Williams in the process. The
Cowboys passing game isn’t likely going to turn things around
anytime soon without Romo under center, leaving Dez Bryant as
the only real fantasy option and he can really only be viewed
as a WR2/WR3 going forward.
The Packers’ pass defense is allowing 245 yards per game
with 16 touchdowns against thus far in 2015. The Packers have
a ferocious pass rush, with 33 sacks on the season, and with the
Cowboys o-line looking shaky, things could get ugly for a quarterback
that has struggled under pressure this season. The Cowboys need
to win out to have any chance of making the playoffs even in the
pathetic NFC East, if they don’t start finding some rhythm
in their passing game the task becomes even more hopeless.
Running Game Thoughts: Darren McFadden
was left for dead by most fantasy owners after a couple of terrible
seasons to close out his time in Oakland. He’s somehow managed
to secure the starting job after incumbent Joseph Randle struggled
to start the season before being released for off-field issues.
McFadden has also kept the job despite challenges for the former
Seahawk trio of Christine Michael, Rod Smith and Robert Turbin.
Truth be told, McFadden is having a nice season and has managed
to stay healthy despite a heavy workload and an upright straight
ahead running style. McFadden has 950 total yards and 3 touchdowns
on the season carrying the offense on his back most weeks. In
a lost season for the Cowboys, his redemption season makes a nice
storyline.
McFadden will face a Packers run defense that is a below average
unit, allowing 111.8 yards per game and 10 rushing touchdowns
on the season. The Cowboys will need to be able to run the ball
and rely on their resurgent defense to give them any hope of keeping
their playoff dreams alive.
Passing
Game Thoughts: It took a miracle for Aaron Rodgers to lead
the Packers to a win last Thursday Night as his struggles continued
in 2015. Only a completed 61-yard Hail Mary pass to tight end
Richard Rodgers saved his fantasy day, as Rodgers finished with
a 273-2-1 stat-line. The second-year tight end was Rodgers’
main target throughout the game finishing with 146 yards and a
TD. Otherwise, the usual suspects of Davante Adams and Randall
Cobb continued their underachieving ways. Cobb’s fantasy
day was saved by a lucky break, a recovery of a James Starks fumble
in the end-zone. I wish I could offer more insight into Aaron
Rodgers struggles beyond what I’ve been saying the last
several weeks, but at this point fantasy owners need to resign
themselves that Rodgers may not turn it around this season.
It’s surely not going to help that the Cowboys’ will
be bringing their top 5 pass defense into Green Bay this week.
The unit is only allowed 222.4 passing yards per game and a mere
12 touchdowns on the season to opposing quarterbacks.
Running Game Thoughts: It looked
like Eddie Lacy was turning his season around after rushing for
100 yards in back-to-back weeks after sitting out a game with
a groin injury. It had to come to a shock to those owners that
started trusting him again when veteran James Starks was back
in the starting line-up and had the entire first two series to
himself with Lacy on the sidelines, In fact, rookie John Crockett
who was signed off the practice squad, saw more action than Lacy.
It turned out that Fat Eddie was being punished for missing curfew
the night before, which also punished his fantasy owners. Head
coach Mike McCarthy has said that Lacy has had a good week of
practice and will be given the chance to get the starting running
back job back, but fantasy owner’s will need to take a leap
of faith to trust Lacy in their playoff matchups.
The Cowboys’ run defense has been average during the course
of the 2015 season. The team is allowing 103.8 yards per game
on the ground and has yielded 11 rushing touchdowns. They’ve
given up the 10th-most fantasy points to running backs.
Passing
Game Thoughts: After a difficult two games, Drew Brees
rebounded last week with 282 yards and three touchdowns in his
team’s loss to the Panthers. Brees is a QB1, and will remain
so unless something happens to his top target, Brandin Cooks.
The second-year wideout collected 104 yards and a touchdown last
week, and has amassed six touchdown receptions over his last five
games. Cooks is creeping towards the top-10 in fantasy scoring
at his position, and is a must-start against the Buccaneers. Ben
Watson is a top ten fantasy tight end and is a low-end TE1 option
against the Bucs.
Editor’s Note:
Cooks missed practice Thursday with a concussion making his availability
for Sunday a huge question mark. If he sits Sunday, Brandon Coleman
and Ben Watson would benefit most.
Tampa Bay is tied for 16th in the league in pass defense and is
between 11th and 16th in yards per attempt allowed, interceptions,
and sacks. They are also 25th in touchdown passes given up, but
haven’t surrendered more than two in a game since Week 7.
The Bucs are mostly average in terms of fantasy points allowed,
ranking between 13th and 18th in points given up to quarterbacks,
wideouts, and tight ends.
Running Game Thoughts: Fantasy owners
took a hit with the news that Mark Ingram’s season is over
because of a shoulder malady. The former Heisman winner was fourth
among running backs in fantasy scoring, and there is no obvious
replacement for him on the Saints’ roster. C.J. Spiller
would seem to be that guy, but he has just 60 touches all season,
and expecting him to suddenly receiving a huge workload is unrealistic.
New Orleans will probably go with a rotation of Spiller and Tim
Hightower, but neither of those two should be considered fantasy
options, especially this week versus Tampa.
The Bucs are seventh in the NFL in run defense, fourth in touchdown
runs permitted, and lead the league in yards per carry allowed.
They have not given up more than 65 yards to an individual back
since Week 8, and no back has run for a score against the since
Week 3. Tampa has allowed running backs to score eight times,
but half of those have come via reception, and the team has given
up the 10th-fewest fantasy points in the league to opposing running
backs.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Jameis Winston is now in the top-15 in fantasy
scoring at his position, but it isn’t because of his passing
prowess – just once over his last six games has the rookie
thrown multiple scoring passes. Winston has improved his fantasy
ranking because he’s rushed for five scores, which trails
only Cam Newton among quarterbacks. But Winston has just 157 rushing
yards this year, which is less than Jay Cutler, and he’s
usually more valuable to fantasy owners as a distributor to Mike
Evans and Vincent Jackson. This week is a bit different, however.
Winston, Evans, Jackson, Austin Seferian-Jenkins – fantasy
options, one and all, with Evans the best of the lot. The reason
is simple. They’re playing New Orleans.
The Saints are well on their way to becoming the single-worst
pass defense in the history of professional football, at least
in terms of touchdown passes given up. The record for most scoring
throws allowed in one season is 40, by the 1963 Denver Broncos,
and New Orleans has already permitted 35, five of which were tossed
last week by Cam Newton. They also give up oodles of yards while
failing to produce interceptions or sacks, which has led to them
being the best match-up in the game for opposing fantasy players.
Running Game Thoughts: Doug Martin
picked up 95 yards and, more importantly, a touchdown last week
against the Falcons. It was only the fourth rushing score of the
season for Martin, and first since Week 5, but he is still third
in fantasy scoring among running backs. Obviously, he’s
a RB1 this week against the Saints.
Much to the surprise of nobody, New Orleans is last in the league
in run defense and yards per carry allowed, but on the bright
side they’re 18th in touchdown runs surrendered! The Saints
have also given up the second-most receiving yards to opposing
backs and are tied for most touchdown receptions allowed by runners.
Putting all that information to use, can you guess which team
has allowed more fantasy points to running backs than any other?
Passing
Game Thoughts: Even without Julian Edelman and Rob Gronkowski,
Tom Brady finds a way to produce. He threw for 312 yards with
three touchdowns and a pair of interceptions last week against
the Eagles, and continues to lead all quarterbacks in fantasy
scoring. Brady’s top target last week was running back James
White, who had 10 receptions for over 100 yards and a touchdown,
but that was probably just an outlier. Brady also threw scoring
passes to Danny Amendola and Scott Chandler, who is likely going
to fill in for Gronk once again this week. Gronkowski (knee) did
make an appearance on the practice field Thursday but his status
remains uncertain. Brady and Co. don’t have an easy match-up
with Houston, but under no circumstances should he be on fantasy
benches.
The Texans have held each of the last five opposing quarterbacks
they’ve faced to fewer than 230 yards, which has helped
them vault to third in the NFL in pass defense. The team has also
surrendered just four touchdown throws during that time, and they
rank 14th in the league in that statistic. Due to their improved
play, Houston now ranks between 17th and 22nd in fantasy points
allowed to quarterbacks, wide receivers, and tight ends.
Running Game Thoughts: It has been
traditionally difficult for fantasy owners to navigate a Bill
Belichick-led backfield. LeGarrette Blount is the lead back, and
has had some productive outings, but you never know when a James
White will come in and scoop up points. Blount is best used as
a flex option most weeks, with hopes he’ll stumble into
the end zone against the likes of the Texans.
Houston allowed over 100 rushing yards to LeSean McCoy last week,
which was the first time since Week 7 that a back reached that
mark versus them. That week was also the last time the team gave
up a rushing score to a running back, though for the season the
Texans are still 18th in both run defense and rushing scores permitted,
24th in yards per carry allowed, and 17th in fantasy points ceded
to running backs.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Brian Hoyer had one of his most productive
games of the season last week against the Bills, throwing for
nearly 300 yards with three touchdowns and one pick, but he remains
a lower-tier QB2, and that isn’t going to change this season.
The only Houston player fantasy owners will want to have on their
squad is DeAndre Hopkins, who rebounded last week with 88 yards
and a touchdown after a surprisingly dull effort versus the Saints.
Hopkins leads all wideouts in fantasy scoring, and is a WR1 against
the Patriots and everybody else.
New England is 15th in the league against the pass, ninth in touchdown
throws ceded, seventh in yards per attempt allowed, and second
in sacks. They have not surrendered more than two touchdown throws
in a game since Week 6, have allowed the 10th-fewest fantasy points
to quarterbacks and the sixth-fewest points to tight ends, but
are 16th in points allowed to wideouts.
Running Game Thoughts: Apparently,
Chris Polk is now the top back in Houston, with Alfred Blue behind
him. Or maybe it’s the other way around – frankly,
it’s impossible to tell from week to week which Texans back
is going to get the most touches. The team’s coaches may
not even know, and as such, no player in the Houston backfield
is a fantasy option this week against New England.
Despite having some troubles in recent weeks, the Patriots still
rank 11th in the NFL in run defense, 13th in rushing scores permitted,
and 17th in yards per carry allowed. New England has also limited
damage done by backs as receivers, and the team has given up the
13th-fewest fantasy points in the league to opposing runners.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Andrew Luck remains out of action, which
means more Matt Hasselbeck for fantasy owners, if they choose
to go that route. He – and the rest of the Colts –
did zero last week against the Steelers, but overall Hasselbeck
has performed admirably. This week’s tilt against Jacksonville
will be a rematch from earlier in the year, a game in which Hasselbeck
threw for over 280 yards with one touchdown. Aside from Hasselbeck,
who is obviously a lower-tier QB option for fantasy owners, and
possibly Coby Fleener, the only other Colt who should be considered
a fantasy option is T.Y. Hilton. He’s among the top-20 fantasy
scorers at wideout and has a good match-up with the Jaguars.
Jacksonville has struggled recently on pass defense, having allowed
10 touchdown throws over their last four games, including seven
in their last two contests. For the year, the Jags are 26th in
the league in pass defense, 25th in scoring passes permitted,
22nd in yards per attempt allowed, and 27th in interceptions.
They have been average overall when it comes to fantasy points
given up to wideouts, but only two teams have allowed more points
to quarterbacks, and just one team has ceded more points to tight
ends.
Running Game Thoughts: Frank Gore
was the only Colts player who found the end zone last week against
the Steelers, and he did that via reception. Gore has had trouble
picking up yards of late, having failed to rush for even 50 yards
in any of his last three contests. Jacksonville held Gore to 53
yards on 17 carries when these two squads last met, and it seems
unlikely he’ll do a whole lot better this time around.
Only one running back – Doug Martin – has managed
to gain at least 80 yards against the Jaguars this season, and
the team ranks 13th in total rushing yards surrendered and third
in yards per carry allowed. Still, just four teams have given
up more scores on the ground than Jacksonville, which is why they
are 14th in the league in fantasy points allowed to running backs.
Passing
Game Thoughts: With wide receiver Allen Hurns out due to
injury last week, it would not have been a huge surprise if Blake
Bortles had a merely average outing against the Titans. Instead,
he threw for 322 yards and five touchdowns without an interception,
and jumped into the top-five in fantasy scoring among quarterbacks.
Three of those touchdowns went into the hands of Allen Robinson,
who also collected 122 yards. He is now the leader in touchdown
receptions among wideouts, and has a legitimate chance to end
the year with more fantasy points than anyone else at his position.
Hurns has also been a force this season, and he’ll return
this week to face a Colts team that he beat for 116 yards and
a score against in Week 4. Bortles, Robinson, and Hurns are each
prime fantasy options this week against Indianapolis.
The Colts have given up at least 280 passing yards in three of
their last four games, and now rank 30th in the league against
the pass. They have collected enough interceptions to place them
among the league leaders, but are still 25th in scoring passes
given up, 23rd in yards per pass attempt allowed, and 28th in
sacks. Indy has allowed the fifth-most fantasy points in the league
to quarterbacks, the third-most to wideouts, and the 13th-most
to tight ends.
Running Game Thoughts: T.J. Yeldon
picked up 57 rushing yards and a career-high 79 receiving yards
last week against the Titans, and added just his second rushing
score of the season. The rookie’s solid outing put him in
the top-20 in fantasy scoring at his position, but he isn’t
much more than a flex play, even this week with a solid match-up
against the Colts.
Indianapolis surrendered 134 rushing yards last week to DeAngelo
Williams, 97 yards the week before to Doug Martin, and now rank
24th in the NFL in run defense. They are 21st in yards per carry
allowed and 18th in rushing scores given up, so despite the fact
they’ve done well in limiting the amount of receiving yards
that running backs have gained on them, the Colts have still permitted
the ninth-most fantasy points in the league to opposing runners.
Passing
Game Thoughts: The Falcons are imploding, having lost five
in a row, and fantasy owners with Matt Ryan at the helm are likely
doing the same. He threw for 269 yards with a lone touchdown and
one interception last week against the Bucs, and has thrown multiple
touchdowns in a game just once over his last four contests. Ryan
is now 15th among quarterbacks in fantasy scoring even with Julio
Jones to throw to. Jones leads the league in receiving yards,
but has just six touchdowns, but four of those came in the month
of September. Despite the lack of scoring, Jones is still a must-start,
even with a difficult match-up against Carolina.
The Panthers allowed 282 yards and three touchdowns to Drew Brees
last week, but for most of the season have been stellar on pass
defense. They are seventh in the NFL in both pass defense and
touchdown throws surrendered, are third in sacks, and lead the
league in yards per attempt allowed and interceptions. Carolina
is 16th in the league in fantasy points given up to tight ends,
but have ceded the seventh-fewest points to both quarterbacks
and wide receivers.
Running Game Thoughts: Devonta Freeman
continues to lead all running backs in fantasy scoring, but Adrian
Peterson has closed the gap considerably. Freeman ran for just
47 yards on 14 carries last week, but he did catch 10 passes for
56 yards. He hasn’t scored on the ground since Week 6, but
it seems inevitable that will change soon, possibly this week
against the Panthers.
Carolina ranks second in the NFL against the run, 10th in yards
per carry allowed, and 13th in rushing scores surrendered. They
have not given up more than 70 yards to an individual ball-carrier
since Week 7, and have allowed the 11th-fewest fantasy points
in the league to running backs.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Cam Newton threw for 331 yards and five
touchdowns last week, numbers that were surprising even against
the putrid defense of the Saints. Newton is second among quarterbacks
in fantasy scoring and now has 25 touchdown throws this year,
two of which went to Ted Ginn, who reappeared after doing literally
nothing the previous week. But Newton’s top target remains
Greg Olsen, who caught nine passes for 129 yards against New Orleans
and is closing in on Rob Gronkowski for the top spot in receiving
yards among tight ends. Both Newton and Olsen are must-starts
this week, even against a solid Falcons pass defense.
Atlanta has yet to permit more than two touchdown throws in a
game this year, and has held each of the last six quarterbacks
they’ve faced to throw for fewer than 230 yards. They are
tied for 11th in the league in pass defense, are fourth in scoring
passes allowed, 11th in yards per attempt given up, and fifth
in interceptions, but also have the fewest sacks in the league.
Not getting to the quarterback hasn’t seemed to hurt them
though, because just three teams have allowed fewer fantasy points
to players at that position than the Falcons, who have also given
up the second-fewest fantasy points to wideouts, but the 10th-most
to tight ends.
Running Game Thoughts: Jonathan
Stewart ran for 82 yards and a touchdown last week against New
Orleans, while Newton picked up 49 yards on the ground but failed
to get in the end zone. Somewhat surprisingly, Stewart is now
seventh among running backs in fantasy scoring, but hold off on
calling him a weekly RB1. He is absolutely no threat as a receiver,
with just 85 receiving yards all season, and Newton is always
a threat to score near the goal line, which hampers Stewart’s
effectiveness for fantasy owners. That said, Stewart should be
a fantasy starter this week due to Atlanta’s penchant for
allowing runners to find the end zone.
The Falcons rank 12th in the league against the run and eighth
in yards per carry allowed, but only the Lions have given up more
rushing scores. Atlanta has also permitted the most receptions
and receiving yards in the league to opposing backs, which is
part of the reason why they have allowed the fourth-most fantasy
points in the league to running backs.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Sammy Watkins is really, really talented.
He is without question a top 10 real life receiver and a case
can certainly be made that in a different environment, he would
be viewed on the level of Antonio Brown and Julio Jones. Unfortunately,
he is on the Bills and the Bills have Rex Ryan as their coach
and all Rex wants to do is run. The Bills ran the ball 29 times
last week, 36 if you count QB runs. That’s compared to just
21 pass attempts for Tyrod Taylor. Fortunately for the select
few that completely disregarded my analysis and started Taylor,
he was remarkably efficient. Taylor completed just 11 passes,
but three of them went for touchdowns. He added a rushing score
as well. Watkins had another strong fantasy performance despite
receiving just four targets. He caught three of them for 109 yards
and a touchdown. It is scary to think of what he would do if he
saw the volume of Odell Beckham or DeAndre Hopkins. Last week
marked the second consecutive week that Taylor threw for three
touchdowns. He now has back to back high end QB1 games following
a dismal three-game stretch. The big question is whether these
last two games are a fluke or if perhaps Taylor is just now fully
over his injuries? He’s thrown just four interceptions on
the season with three coming in one game against the Patriots.
He protects the ball well, due in large part to the offense protecting
him.
I don’t believe this level of efficiency can persist, but
he is certainly a QB1 against the Eagles 24th ranked pass defense
that just allowed 312 yards and four total touchdowns to Tom Brady.
Yes, the Eagles forced two turnovers, but this is a defense that’s
allowed 28 passing touchdowns on the season, behind only the Saints
for worst in the league.
Running Game Thoughts: LeSean McCoy looked as healthy as I’ve
seen him all season last week and it showed. He is up to 4.6 yards
per carry on the season after a 21-carry, 112-yard effort against
the Texans. Shady has now rushed for over 100 yards three times
this season. Interestingly, all three of those totals have been
exactly 112 yards. With Karlos Williams inactive, McCoy saw his
highest carry count of the season and is locked in as an elite
RB1.
This week, he returns to the city where he will be receiving
anything but brotherly love for the first time as a member of
the opposing team. If you recall, when McCoy was unexpectedly
shipped out of Philly by Chip Kelly, the breakup was anything
but amicable with McCoy accusing Kelly of being racist. Just this
past week, McCoy publicly said, “Chip can’t say [stuff]
to me. There’s nothing for us to talk about.” Shady
will be returning to Philly with a purpose and Rex Ryan is the
type of guy to let him prove a point to his former coach. It would
not surprise me in the least if McCoy finished as this week’s
top scoring back. The narrative aside, it helps that the Eagles
are one of the league’s worst run defenses, allowing 124.7
rushing yards per game and a league worst four rushes of over
40 yards.
Passing
Game Thoughts: It’s hard to judge Sam Bradford’s
performance last week as the game was one of the most unconventional
you will ever see. The Eagles barely had the ball on offense because
every time they were supposed to get it, the defense or special
teams scored. Bradford threw just 24 passes, completing 14 for
120 yards and two touchdowns. His touchdown throws to Zach Ertz
and Jordan Matthews were impressive as was his game sealing completion
to Riley Cooper. However, aside from last week, the only other
games where Bradford threw for multiple TDs were against the Saints
and Redskins, two of the league’s worst pass defenses. On
the encouraging side, this marks the third consecutive game where
Bradford failed to throw an interception.
As for his number one receiver, I noticed something looking through
my seven leagues – along with guys like Eddie Lacy and Andrew
Luck, Jordan Matthews was a player most commonly found on teams
that missed the playoffs. It has been a disappointing season for
a guy who was ranked right next to DeAndre Hopkins back in August.
Talk about two seasons that have gone in completely opposite directions.
JMatt has caught just three passes in his past two games, but
has managed to find the end zone in each one. He is still the
No.1 receiver and Bradford’s top target, but if you were
able to find your way into the playoffs with Matthews, it’s
hard to trust him as more than a touchdown dependent WR3, even
against a Bills defense allowing 255.7 passing yards per game
and having allowed 23 passing touchdowns on the season.
Running Game Thoughts: So let me get this straight, a downhill
runner that thrives on getting a head of steam before taking the
ball is struggling to succeed in a shotgun based offense that
primarily runs sweeps? Color me shocked. In what may go down as
one of the worst all time pairings in what is one of the worst
off-seasons in NFL history, DeMarco Murray and the Eagles simply
don’t belong together. It appears the divorce is coming
early as now reports have surfaced that Murray complained to the
owner about his role in the offense. I’m very conflicted
on where I stand on this. On the one hand, Murray chased the money
and left Dallas knowing exactly what he was getting into. On the
other hand, Murray is a terrible fit for this offense and if Chip
Kelly wants to win games, he is better off with Ryan Mathews and
Darren Sproles (and apparently Kenjon Barner).
For fantasy purposes, Murray is dead weight. In Week 14, you’re
not dropping him, but you’re certainly not putting him in
your lineup with your season on the line. Mathews returned to
practice Tuesday after missing the past three games with a concussion.
I have no idea who will start, but it would surprise me if Mathews
didn’t see the largest workload this week. The Bills only
see 24.2 rush attempts against per game, but allow 4.3 yards per
carry and have allowed 8 rushing scores on the season. Putting
your season in the hands of any Eagle is questionable, at best,
but if you have to go with one, Mathews is probably your guy.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Depending on your league’s scoring,
you may have seen as many as six quarterbacks eclipse the 40-point
threshold last week in one of the more prolific scoring weeks
in recent memory. One of those QBs was Marcus Mariota. Heading
into last week’s game, Mariota had 114 rushing yards on
the season. He now has 226 with 87 of those yards coming on one
of the most impressive QB runs in league history for a touchdown.
He added 268 yards passing with 3 TDs and 1 interception. Mariota
has been inconsistent, yet predictable, which seems counterintuitive.
Allow me to explain. Put him against swiss cheese defenses like
the Saints, Raiders, and Jaguars, and Mariota excels, putting
up high end QB1 numbers (he gets a pass for his Week 11 game against
the Jaguars because that game was on a Thursday). Put him against
respected opponents such as the Bills and Panthers, and he struggles.
For as good as Mariota has been in his rookie season, he’s
still had three games where he’s failed to throw for a touchdown.
The Jets, even without Darrelle Revis, remain one of the stiffest
tests Mariota will face this season. Mariota has completed 63.2
percent of his passes this season, but the Jets allow opposing
passers to complete just 56.1 percent of passes. The biggest takeaway
from last week’s performance actually is not Mariota, but
rather what I hope is the arrival of polarizing rookie Dorial
Green-Beckham. While Delanie Walker did his usual thing, leading
the Titans in targets and producing top 5 TE numbers, Green-Beckham
made the splash plays. DGB caught 5 of his 6 targets for 119 yards
and a score. More importantly, he looked imposing on the field,
like he was simply better than everyone else. Don’t necessarily
expect much consistency going forward, especially in this week’s
tough matchup and with Revis likely returning, but the arrow is
certainly pointing upward and his upside is immense.
Running Game Thoughts: David Cobb saw his largest workload of
the season in the form of 13 carries. Unfortunately for the rookie,
he did little with them, totaling just 40 yards. The back to own
in Tennessee continues to be Antonio Andrews, which is more of
an indictment on Cobb and Bishop Sankey than anything else. Andrews
is not good at football. He averages 3.8 yards per carry, is not
explosive, and really just gets what’s blocked for him.
However, this is 2015 and all the running backs you thought were
good, are not. This makes a guy like Andrews relevant. If your
matchup is relevant this week, congratulations. If you have to
start Andrews in that matchup, I apologize in advance. Any back
receiving the bulk of a team’s carries is worth owning and
Andrews has now seen double digit carries in every game going
back to Week 7. However, he contributes nothing in the passing
game and last week was his first touchdown since Week 5. Also,
the Jets have the best run defense in football allowing just 1
rushing TD to running backs this season.
Passing
Game Thoughts: I know injuries skew this a bit, but Ryan
Fitzpatrick has actually been a QB1 by total points. He put together
another impressive performance last week against the other New
York team. In a game where the running game just couldn’t
get anything going, FitzMagic tossed up a whopping 50 passes.
Interesting side note – Fitzpatrick does not throw for passes
in the 40s. He either stops at 39 or he keeps going until 50.
The last time he eclipsed the 50 pass attempts mark was back in
Week 3 against the Eagles where he also threw a season worst 3
interceptions. 50-plus pass attempts should be a bad thing, but
not when it comes against the worst pass defense in the league.
Against the Giants, 50 pass attempts got Fitzpatrick 390 yards
and 2 touchdowns. He has now thrown for multiple scores in all
but two games this season if we discount the game against the
Raiders where he left in the first quarter due to a thumb injury.
Both Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker topped 100 yards receiving
as the two commanded half of Fitzpatrick’s total targets.
The Titans have allowed the third most passing touchdowns despite
seeing the second fewest pass attempts against. Last week, they
let Blake Bortles throw for 5 touchdowns. In the first week of
the fantasy playoffs, you can do worse than Fitzpatrick, but be
very excited for Marshall and Decker as WR1s.
Running Game Thoughts: With each passing week, your matchup increases
in importance. With each passing week, it becomes harder and harder
to trust Chris Ivory. Against a Giants defense that struggles
to stop everyone, Ivory was handed the ball just 10 times. He
did manage 47 yards, which isn’t terrible, but when you
consider that 37 of those yards came on his first 4 carries, it
makes you wonder what happened. Ivory has been very hit or miss
recently, seemingly alternating good games with bad ones. Last
week was a bad one, which led to Bilal Powell seeing an increased
role. Powell actually had the same amount of targets (13) as Brandon
Marshall and hauled in 8 of them for 91 yards and a touchdown.
He still doesn’t get much work on the ground, but his usage
in the passing game is a problem for Ivory owners. The Titans
have a middling run defense, but are one of just nine teams to
allow double digit rushing touchdowns on the season. If the Jets
can get in close enough, it should still be Ivory’s number
being called to punch it in this week.
Passing
Game Thoughts: I usually open my write-up by talking about
the quarterback first. That needs to stop with the Giants. Odell
Beckham Jr. is a generational talent and we should take a step
back right now, while he is still in the very early stages of
his career, and realize how amazing it is that we get to watch
him play. Never has a receiver made one handed grabs so nonchalantly.
Beckham added another 149 yards to his total and has now topped
100 yards receiving in five straight games. He has scored in all
but one of those games as well. Eli Manning has had the fortune
of having an elite receiver almost every year of his career. He
started out with Plaxico Burress, then had Hakeem Nicks (back
when he was good) and now Beckham. Give Manning an elite receiver
and he can be a QB1. Against the Jets elite pass defense, albeit
without Darrelle Revis, Manning put up a respectable yardage total
(297), but his completion percentage was once again in the fifties
(that’s three in a row now) and he had a brutal fourth quarter
4th down interception on a play where he simply has to be smarter.
Manning’s season numbers would probably look better if Tom
Coughlin were fired. Unfortunately, that will have to wait until
the offseason, if it happens at all.
Fortunately for Manning, the matchup gets much easier this week
in a Dolphins defense that has allowed 24 passing touchdowns on
the season (T-5th most) and has severely disappointed given the
preseason expectations. The Dolphins couldn’t stop Marshall
and Decker two weeks ago and should have no answer for Beckham
this week.
Running Game Thoughts: The Giants have the worst run game in
the NFL and it is not close. Rashad Jennings and Shane Vereen
rank 41st and 42nd respectively among fantasy running backs and
even in a plus matchup, they can’t be trusted. All four
of their backs can continue to be completely ignored.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Ryan Tannehill played one of the worst pass
defenses in the league in a close game and only threw for 86 yards.
It is only fitting that after I declared Jarvis Landry an “elite
WR2” with the “highest floor of any receiver not named
Antonio Brown” that he would amass a whopping five receiving
yards in a cupcake matchup. If not for the late first half bomb
to DeVante Parker, I’m not so sure Tannehill would have
even topped 50 passing yards. It was an embarrassing effort across
the board and somehow made worse by the fact that the Dolphins
won this game. I don’t know if the Ravens are purposefully
tanking at this point, but it sure looks like Justin Tucker has
checked out as he just continues to miss both long and important
field goals. It is really difficult to know what to make of this
game as it was so strange. For Landry, it is best to chalk it
up as a fluke. He is far more likely to return to his usual productive
self than to put up another dud like this one. Parker remains
intriguing as the talent is clearly there. The question remains
as to whether Tannehill can support a second receiver. Parker
is likely a boom or bust, touchdown dependent WR3 this week, and
definitely not a guy you want to rely on in the opening round
of the fantasy playoffs.
Working most favorably for the Dolphins is the Giants laughable
pass defense. I can’t figure out if it’s actually
worse than the Saints, but the fact that they’re even mentioned
in the same sentence is enough to indicate how bad they are. At
314.5 pass yards allowed per game, the Giants’ “lead”
over the Saints somehow grew last week in a game where the Saints
allowed five touchdown passes. The Giants aren’t nearly
as prolific at allowing passing scores, but at 22 allowed on the
season, they are sufficiently generous. Odds are you didn’t
make the playoffs on the right arm of Ryan Tannehill, but if you’re
streaming QBs or playing matchups, it doesn’t get much better
than this.
Running Game Thoughts: There seems to be a trend in Miami. Either
give the ball to Lamar Miller or lose your job. Joe Philbin was
the first to go and immediately following his departure, Miller
saw a huge uptick in carries. Somehow the Dolphins again forgot
what wins them football games. That led to OC Bill Lazor’s
termination. Fast forward one week and Miller is back to receiving
20 carries and racking up 113 yards. It’s hard to put any
faith in the Dolphins as they’ve shown no conviction through
the first 13 weeks, but Miller has quite the burnable matchup
in the Giants run defense that isn’t much better than their
pass defense. The Giants allow 108.8 rushing yards per game and
4 yards per carry. They have allowed 8 rushing touchdowns on the
season. The Dolphins straightest path to victory is on the ground
and this game is a must win. If they want to keep their playoff
hopes alive, they need to feed Miller. If you have him, I’d
be willing to trust they do just that.
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