Passing
Game Thoughts: Quarterback Jacoby Brissett enters Saturday’s
road game against the Ravens as the 30th ranked QB in points per
game at 16.4 in FFToday Default Scoring. His 11 passing touchdowns
is the second fewest in the league for quarterbacks with at least
300 pass attempts, with Cleveland Browns rookie DeShone Kizer
pulling up the rear with nine TD passes on 410 attempts. Like
Kizer, Brissett’s fantasy points per game average is propped
up by yards on the ground and rushing touchdowns. Brissett is
tied with Tyrod Taylor for third in the league in rushing touchdowns
(4), two behind league leader Dak Prescott at six.
Brissett has done a solid job this season taking advantage of
sub-par defenses like the 49ers, Texans, and Browns, while top
units like Jacksonville, Buffalo, and Denver have stymied the
former third-round pick out of NC State. In his last five games,
Brissett has failed to score more than 20 points, including an
8.5 point showing in a blizzard against the Bills Week 14.
A road game against a Ravens team that allows the third-fewest
points to opposing quarterback constitutes a rough matchup for
Brissett and one in which fantasy owners should avoid at all costs.
Only owners in deep two-quarterback leagues should consider Brissett,
but only as a low-end option.
Only Ben Roethlisberger and Blake Bortles have managed to post
big fantasy points vs. the Ravens, a unit that held Case Keenum,
Matt Moore, Brett Hundley, Tom Savage, and Kizer each without
a passing touchdown this season.
Of the skill position players in the passing game, tight end
Jack Doyle has the most upside and the best chance of delivering
a solid performance for fantasy owners. Limiting points to tight
ends has been somewhat of a challenge for Baltimore this season,
as the Ravens have allowed the 12-most points to the TE position.
Three wide receivers have reached the century mark vs. Baltimore
since top cornerback Jimmy Smith went down with a ruptured Achilles
tendon. Smith’s absence helps T.Y. Hilton, especially on
a possible deep touchdown, but Hilton’s lack of volume makes
him a questionable play for owners in the Championship game.
BAL FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.30
BAL FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.11
BAL FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.30
BAL FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.12
Running Game Thoughts: Frank Gore appears to be finally running
out of gas, with a career-low 3.6 yard per carry average on 220
attempts. His 8.5 fantasy points per game places him 30th among
running backs, tied with Joe Mixon and Jerick McKinnon. The 13-year
veteran has just one game of over 100 yards this season and has
scored just one rushing touchdown since Week 3.
Rookie Marlon Mack flashed some brilliance early in the season
with a 9/91/1 game against the 49ers Week 5, only to fade out
of the top 50 with six straight games of single-digit performances.
Considering the fact that the Colts have the No. 22 run blocking
offensive line and the No.32 ranked pass protecting unit according
to FootballOutsiders.com; it is not surprising that Gore, Mack,
and the entire Colts offense has struggled in 2017.
On a positive note, the best way to attack the Ravens this season
is on the ground, as Baltimore has allowed the 11th-most points
to opposing RBs, including 30.5 points to Le’Veon Bell two
weeks ago in Pittsburgh. Ten running backs have managed to reach
double digits this season against Baltimore, giving Gore owners
hope that a random rushing touchdown could be in the cards on
Saturday afternoon.
Passing
Game Thoughts: It may surprise many readers to know that
Joe Flacco ranks just outside the top 12 in fantasy points by
quarterbacks over the past five weeks. After a slow start to the
season that included just one multi-touchdown game in his first
eight matchups, Flacco posted three consecutive 20-plus point
weeks, including 24.7 points last week against the Browns.
Another 20-point game from Flacco is not out of the question
this week against a Colts unit that allows the 9th-most points
to opposing quarterbacks. Only Jared Goff (lopsided win for Los
Angeles), Marcus Mariota, Nathan Peterman (blizzard game), and
Tom Savage have failed to score 20 points against the Colts this
year. Even the much-maligned Brock Osweiler delivered a strong
performance vs. Indy, completing 12 of 17 passes for 194 yards
and three total touchdowns last week.
Wide receiver Jeremy Maclin left Sunday’s win over the
Browns early with a knee injury and appears to be a question mark
for Week 16 after missing practice on Tuesday and Wednesday. In
the likelihood that Maclin will not suit up, Mike Wallace should
continue his recent streak as the primary wide receiver target
for Flacco, with Chris Moore and Breshad Perriman earning more
playing time.
With double-digit targets in two of his last four games, including
ten targets and six catches for 89 yards last week, Wallace should
be considered a strong No.3 WR regardless if Maclin plays. But
with Maclin likely out, Wallace enters into the conversation as
a top 24 WR play this week.
IND FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.9
IND FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.5
IND FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.7
IND FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.10
Running Game Thoughts: Head coach John Harbaugh and offensive
coordinator Marty Morningwig gave Alex Collins owners a big slap
in the face by breaking up carries between Collins and Buck Allen
nearly even, with the latter proving to be more productive with
70 yards on 19 carries. Collins did get a few goalie carries and
was the primary back to start the game, but Allen earned more
than double his usage from the previous week.
For some reason, Harbaugh seems more comfortable giving Allen
the majority of carries in games in which the Ravens are up big
and are looking to run out the clock. Perhaps they feel that Allen
is better at ball security, or maybe they want to keep Collins
fresh as the season approaches January. Regardless of the reason(s),
Allen is going to get more usage on Sunday if the Ravens take
care of business and build a big lead over Indy. Collins owners
will still want to start the second year back against the Colts,
a team that allows the fourth-most points to opposing running
backs in 2017. But the threat of losing carries in the second
half is real, and owners should not be shocked to see an even
split in carries once again.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Case Keenum has been a revelation for the
Vikings after the season seemed lost after another in a string
of knee injuries for Sam Bradford. Not only did Keenum lead the
Vikings to another NFC North Crown, the journeyman backup from
Houston has played well enough to keep Teddy two gloves Bridgewater
holding a clipboard.
With 264.2 fantasy points in 13 games (20.2 PPG), Keenum trails
Drew Brees by just .5 points per game for the 12th spot among
qualified QBs in 2017. The Vikings are 8-2 with Keenum under center,
including impressive wins over Baltimore, Washington, Los Angeles
Rams, Atlanta, and Detroit.
From a fantasy perspective, Keenum continues to be a solid weekly
play for streaming QBs down the stretch of the season. He consistently
throws at least two touchdowns, while limiting mistakes with just
seven interceptions in 427 pass attempts. Keenum should continue
his solid play against a Packers team that has allowed the second-most
points to opposing quarterbacks over the past five weeks. Starting
with Ben Roethlisberger’s four touchdown game Week 12, the
last four quarterbacks to face Green Bay have topped at least
23 fantasy points, including Cam Newton’s 33.9 game last
week at Bank of America stadium.
The primary beneficiary of Keenum’s breakout season is
wide receiver Adam Thielen; an undrafted fifth-year player who
emerged from obscurity last year to catch 69 balls for 967 yards
and four touchdowns. Thielen has proved one-year wonder naysayers
wrong with 83 receptions for 1192 yards and four touchdowns as
the No.10 ranked WR in fantasy points per game.
Stefon Diggs has not flourished with Keenum as the signal caller,
although the two appear to be building rapport with consecutive
double-digit games over the past two weeks. Diggs carries a much
lower floor than Thielen, but his upside is so high that he is
a solid No.3 WR against the Packers.
With touchdowns in each of his last four games, tight end Kyle
Rudolph should also be considered a top-five play this week against
the Packers. On the season Green Bay has been one of the stingiest
teams against tight ends, but they have fallen off over the past
month and should no longer be considered a poor matchup for opposing
TEs.
GB FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.4
GB FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.9
GB FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.6
GB FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.27
Running Game Thoughts: Jerick McKinnon flashed some of his SPARQ
score brilliance against the Bengals last week, with 138 total
yards on 15 touches for 13.8 fantasy points. It was only the second
double-digit game for McKinnon him his previous six games, as
Latavius Murray asserted himself as the Viking running back to
own in fantasy.
Murray added 104 total yards on 21 touches, with his team-leading
6th rushing touchdown of the season. Both players should be considered
reliable options against a Packers defense that allows the 9th-most
points to opposing running backs, with Murray ranked as a mid-range
No.2 RB and McKinnon as a high-end flex.
The Packers defense struggles in stopping both the run and the
pass. Defensive coordinator Dom Capers is forced to blitz heavily
to get pressure on the quarterback, as the Packers struggle to
get pressure on the QB from their front four. Keenum ranks among
the top passers against the blitz and will tear apart the Packer
defense and build a sizable lead that will give Murray and McKinnon
closing touch opportunities.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Aaron Rodgers returned to the field after
missing eight games with the broken collarbone to throw three
interceptions in a disappointing showing against the Panthers.
Rodgers was clearly not himself, underthrowing passes and rusty
with his accuracy.
With the Packers eliminated from playoff contention the Green
Bay front office made the wise choice of returning Rodgers to
IR so he can start the rehab process for 2018. Third-year QB Brett
Hundley once again resumes the role of Rodgers’ injury fill-in
as the Pack hosts divisional rival Minnesota on Sunday.
Hundley’s 2017 season is a mixed bag of impressive performances
like his three touchdown game on the road against the Steelers,
and head-scratching duds like his 84-yard, zero touchdown game
at home against an injury-depleted Tampa Bay defense that ranks
tenth in points allowed to QBs.
The Vikings have a chance for home-field advantage on the line
in what is nothing more than an extended 2018 preseason game for
the Packers. To make matters worse for Hundley, he will likely
be without leading receiver and favorite target Davante Adams,
who is suffering from a concussion sustained on a blindside block
from Thomas Davis of the Panthers.
On the season, the Vikings allow the second-fewest points to
opposing quarterbacks, just behind league-leading Jacksonville.
Only four of 14 QBs have managed to score 20 or more points vs.
Mike Zimmer’s defense and no quarterback has managed to
throw for more than three touchdowns in a game. Expecting Hundley
to be the first to break the three-touchdown plateau is stretch,
especially for those teams still alive in the fantasy championship.
MIN FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.31
MIN FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.32
MIN FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.24
MIN FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.32
Running Game Thoughts: Aaron Jones and Jamaal Williams combined
for just 74 yards on 14 touches for 8.3 fantasy points in last
week’s 31-24 loss to Carolina, the fewest combined touches
by Packers running backs this year. Game script and the return
of Aaron Rodgers contributed to the pass-heavy play calling by
Mike McCarthy. With Rodgers now on IR and the Packers heavy underdogs
at home to the Vikings, a return to the ground game to limit mistakes
by Hundley is a smart course of action for the Packers.
But game script against Case Keenum and the Vikings offense may
make running the ball an afterthought, as the likelihood of the
Vikings opening up a significant lead is well within reason. Not
to mention running the ball was difficult for the Pack when the
two teams faced off Week 6 in Minnesota, with Jones, Ty Montgomery,
and Aaron Ripkowski combining for 69 total years on 26 total touches.
The Vikings head into the fantasy playoffs allowing the fewest
points to opposing running backs on the year, just ahead of the
Philadelphia Eagles and Carolina Panthers. If you removed the
three-touchdown outlier performance by Jonathan Stewart in Week
14, only four opposing running backs have scored a rushing touchdown
vs. Minnesota this season, and only Benny Cunningham of the Bears
has managed to score on a receiving touchdown.
Jamaal Williams is worthy of a start based on the probability
of double-digit touches and the chance of scoring a random touchdown.
But expectations should be tempered, and all other skill position
players on the Pack are red flag starts.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Matthew Stafford and the Detroit passing
game are the latest team to benefit from playing against a Bengals
unit that quit playing with passion three weeks ago after a heartbreaking
loss to the Steelers. With lame duck coach Marvin Lewis reportedly
parting ways “mutually” with the Bengals and a defense
riddled with injuries, the Bengals have no spark and have allowed
four straight top 12 performances, including QB1 finishes for
Mitchell Trubisky and DeShone Kizer, two of the worst efficient
quarterbacks of 2017.
The timing is perfect for Stafford and the rest of the passing
game skill position players, as the Lions have been out of sync
as of late despite the benefit of a road game against the lowly
Bucs and a home game against divisional foe Chicago. After starting
the season with one interception in his first 175 pass attempts,
Stafford committed four picks in his last four games and two against
the putrid Bucs secondary.
It may surprise some readers to learn that the Lions rank third
on the season in fantasy points scored by the wide receiving corps,
behind only the Pittsburgh Steelers and Los Angeles Rams, and
ahead of the Texans, Packers, and Falcons.
Marvin Jones has quietly put together a top-10 season with 54
catches for 970 yards and eight touchdowns. His 10.4 fantasy points
per game places him tied with A.J. Green for seventh best among
wide receivers and less than half a point behind Keenan Allen
for 5th place. Fellow receiving mate Golden Tate (pardon the rhyme),
has been a PPR stud with 82 catches for 885 yards on 107 targets.
Both players should find it easy to get open against a Bengals
defense that is littered with injuries, including linebacker Vontaze
Burfict who is still not able to practice with a concussion, and
ankle and knee injuries to Nick Vigil and Darqueze Dennard.
After starting the season off strong and continuing to be ranked
toward the lower half of the league in points allowed to QBs and
wide receivers, Cincinnati has been purging points over the past
five weeks as the 7th-worst in points allowed.
CIN FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.22
CIN FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.2
CIN FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.29
CIN FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.17
Running Game Thoughts: Second-round bust Ameer Abdullah appears
to be changing his tune after telling reporters two weeks ago
that the struggles of Detroit’s run game begin with him.
Now he is reportedly upset with his lack of touches and is unhappy
with coach Jim Caldwell opting to give Theo Riddick and rookie
Tion Green ten carries last week while Abdullah was active but
on the sideline.
The Lions struggles with the run can be attributed to three things.
The stable of running backs lacks a true workhorse capable of
breaking arm tackles with power while showing elusiveness in the
hole and outside the tackle box. Also, the Lions boast one of
the worst run blocking lines in the NFL according to FootballOutsiders.com,
with nearly half of all run plays ending at or behind the line
of scrimmage. And finally, offensive coordinator Jim Bob Cooter
continually tries to run smaller backs like Abdullah and Riddick
on inside traps and counters, despite the fact that they are too
small to break tackles by linebackers at the point of attack and
the interior line of the Lions cannot sustain blocks against defensive
lineman.
Needless to say, even in attractive matchups against a Bengals
defense that is currently missing their top two run stopping linebackers,
starting a Detroit running back is not a smart play.
Desperate owners in need of a flex play may want to consider
Riddick for his pass-catching upside. The unknown usage of Abdullah
and Green and the fact that either one could enter Caldwell’s
doghouse for fumbling, make both players much too risky in a championship
weekend.
Passing
Game Thoughts: After a strong start to the season that
included two 100-yard games and three receiving touchdowns, A.J.
Green has been disappointing since the team’s Week 6 bye.
Since that time, Green’s 35 receptions and 476 yards place
him 20th overall for wide receivers, and he has not reached 70
yards or a score in Cincinnati’s last two losses to Chicago
and Minnesota.
Green’s woes coincide with quarterback Andy Dalton coming
back down to Earth after a streak of six games in which the Red
Rifle did not throw an interception. Dalton has been downright
putrid in December, with one touchdown pass and three interceptions
in the team’s last two games, while the Bengal offense has
managed to score just 14 points in the last eight quarters.
Green owners will still want to start the former first-round
pick based on this touchdown upside and volume. But expectations
should be tempered, as the Bengals continue to play uninspired
football and lack continuity on offense.
On a positive note for Dalton, Green, and the entire Cincinnati
passing game, the Lions have been terrible against the pass over
the past five weeks,. All four quarterbacks to face Detroit Since
Week 12 have managed to top 20 or more fantasy points, including
subpar fantasy options like Joe Flacco and Mitchell Trubisky.
The Lions present exactly the type of defense right now that is
conducive for Green and Dalton busting out of their recent slump.
The question is will the Bengals respond and take advantage of
Detroit’s secondary, or will they continue their self-destructive
ways.
DET FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.14
DET FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.3
DET FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.18
DET FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.7
Running Game Thoughts: Joe Mixon was a full participant in practice
on Wednesday and Thursday, making Week 16 a likely return to action
for the former Oklahoma Sooner star after missing a couple games
with a concussion.
Veteran Giovani Bernard carried the load well in Mixon’s
stead, with double-digit performances in each of the last three
weeks. Bernard’s rushing touchdown last week in the lopsided
34-7 loss to the Vikings proved to be the only bright spot for
the Bengals in an otherwise forgettable showing.
Look for Mixon to once again earn the majority of first and second
down carries, but Marvin Lewis has a history of rewarding veteran
players for their strong play, and Bernard certainly deserves
to continue to be a part of the rushing attack after his recent
performances.
Assuming the Bengal defensive unit can keep the offense in the
game, look for Mixon and Bernard to get a heavy workload against
a Detroit team that allows the third-most points to opposing running
backs. Only Buffalo and the Bengals have allowed more points to
opposing backs, and Lewis is an old-school coach who is not afraid
to run the ball repeatedly.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Head coach Hue Jackson continues to give
mixed messages regarding his feelings and confidence of rookie
DeShone Kizer, a player whom Jackson has benched multiple times
this season, and recently roasted in a press conference after
practice. Jackson’s comments prompted running back Duke
Johnson to question whether Kizer will ever get his confidence
back after the way Jackson has handled the first-year quarterback
in this year.
Kizer’s inaccuracy and questionable decision making have
been frustrating to watch, while his impressive athleticism and
arm strength give Jackson and Browns fans hope for what may lie
ahead for the former Notre Dame star. One area in which Kizer
has killed the Browns is in the red zone, with a league-leading
six interceptions from within the 20-yard line.
The return of Josh Gordon from suspension looked like a shot
in the arm for Kizer and the Browns passing attack, as Gordon
and Kizer connected for 80 yards against the Chargers Week 13
and first quarter touchdown against the Packers to begin the following
week. But the Gordon hype stalled against Baltimore, as the Ravens
pressured Kizer repeatedly and Gordon managed to haul in just
five of his 11 targets for 47 yards.
Gordon’s near-elite level of target share since returning
from suspension makes him a must-start in all formats, even against
a difficult secondary like the Bears that limits the 28th-fewest
points to opposing quarterbacks. As good as the Bears have been
at limiting points for QBs, the one area in the passing game that
they struggle is against big, physical wide receivers like Gordon.
CHI FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.28
CHI FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.23
CHI FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.16
CHI FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.25
Running Game Thoughts: In continuing the theme of AFC & NFC
North running backs who are unhappy with their usage, Isaiah Crowell
joined Ameer Abdullah in complaining about the number of touches
he has been given in the run game. Unlike Abdullah, Crowell may
have a valid argument regarding his lack of usage, with 72 yards
last week against the Ravens on just five carries. Crowell also
impressed in his previous outing against the Packers with a season-high
121 yards on 19 carries.
When game script allows Jackson to give his early-down back more
than 15 carries, Crowell has been a decent running back in 2017.
The problem is the Browns are winless on the year, and negative
game scripts are commonplace for this organization. If anything,
Crow should be rooting for his defense and quarterback to provide
an environment conducive to a heavy workload.
Assuming Kizer does not fall into the trap of turning the ball
over to an above average Chicago secondary, Crowell may be presented
with a positive game script to allow for at least 15 carries.
But what he does with those carries may not please his fantasy
owners, as the Bears have been the fourth-stingiest unit in points
allowed over the past five weeks.
The Bears have not allowed a rushing touchdown since Week 10
and no running back this season has topped the century mark vs.
Chicago. The Bears do provide some opportunity for running backs
catching passes out of the backfield as the 16th ranked team against
RB receiving yards, but only one player has reached the end zone
on a pass out of the backfield, making Duke Johnson a somewhat
questionable play on Sunday.
Passing
Game Thoughts: With Jimmy Garoppolo leading the 49ers to
wins in each of his first three starts and former first-round
picks Carson Wentz and Jared Goff leading their respective teams
to the playoffs, Chicago fans and front office executives may
question if they made the right move trading up for Mitchell Trubisky.
The former North Carolina Tar Heel has made some impressive plays
with both his legs and his feet, but he doesn’t appear to
present the same leadership moxy of the other three quarterbacks.
Perhaps he will show more when he has a full offseason as the
clear-cut starter for the organization.
Until that happens, fantasy owners have no business playing Trubisky
in anything other than deep two-quarterback leagues. His 14.5
points per game places him just above Tom Savage for dead last
in fantasy points for quarterbacks with at least 220 pass attempts.
Trubkisy has yet to throw for more than one touchdown in a game
and his three interceptions last week against the Lions gives
him seven on the season to match his seven passing touchdowns.
On a positive note, Trubisky enters Sunday’s game gains
the Browns with back-to-back 20-point performances - his only
two on the year. Owners looking for a GPP play in DFS may want
to roll the dice on Trubkisy, but season-long owners still alive
in the playoffs hopefully have much better options.
CLE FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.7
CLE FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.22
CLE FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.19
CLE FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.2
Running Game Thoughts: Jordan Howard is without question the
most attractive matchup in this game on both sides of the ball,
and the only player fantasy owners should have full confidence
in starting on Sunday. Although Howard continued his recent string
of following up a monster game with a dud last week against the
Lions, he returns home to play against a Browns team that has
struggled against the run in the second half of the season after
starting out strong in September.
Cleveland has allowed well over 100 total yards or a score since
Week 10, including a monster 23.8 point game by Green Bay Packer
running back Jamaal Williams Week 14.
The Bears will have a simple game plan on Sunday - one in which
will likely lead to a victory over their neighbor to the East.
Run the ball early and often with Howard while mixing in a few
splash plays with Tarik Cohen, and wait for turnover king DeShone
Kizer to make poor decisions with the football that will lead
to short fields.
In deep leagues with large rosters, Cohen could be a sneaky flex
option. The Browns are tied for third in touchdowns allowed to
receiving backs, and they have allowed the 6th-most catches to
RBs over the past five games.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Once the Rams clinch the division they won’t
have much to play for in the standings as they are basically locked
in as the NFC’s No.3 seed. The good news is that they need
a Seattle loss or a win to achieve that goal this weekend and
the Seahawks play after the Rams. As a result, Los Angeles should
be playing to win and fantasy owners shouldn’t have to worry
about anyone being “rested” for the playoffs - at
least until late in the fourth quarter. Jared Goff’s numbers
have come down over the past month but expect the team to have
a rebounding effort this week. Robert Woods returned to action
last week and promptly picked up his touchdown scoring ways. He
has now scored five touchdowns in his last four games played and
isn’t likely to slow down against Tennessee.
Having Woods back to pair with Cooper Kupp and Sammy Watkins
certainly makes Goff’s fantasy outlook brighter. Kupp’s
production has declined in four straight weeks. The Rams have
to be pleased with their rookie wideout this season but he gets
squeezed a bit by Woods return and can be safely stowed away on
your fantasy bench. Meanwhile, Watkins keeps plugging along as
a tough fantasy lineup choice. He had his touchdown streak broke
last week and hasn’t gone over 100 yards receiving since
Week 3. He’s been touchdown or bust for most of the year
but Goff has posted multiple touchdowns in six of his last seven
games to keep Watkins’ fantasy value alive. He’s not
the safest WR3/Flex choice but he’s not the worst.
TEN FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.15
TEN FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.29
TEN FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.13
TEN FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.11
Running Game Thoughts: Todd Gurley has been a beast for fantasy
owners this season. His 17 total touchdowns have given him a nice
cushion on Le’Veon Bell and make him the favorite to finish
the year as the best running back in all of fantasyland. He’s
an easy start despite the fact that the Titans have been the third
toughest team against opposing fantasy running backs over the
past five weeks. However, I might look elsewhere for an anchor
in my DFS lineup. L.A. has not taken Gurley out of the game much
this season but don’t be surprised if the horse gets a break
late in the game. The Rams are eyeing a deep playoff run and would
love to give their leading man a little rest if the deficit becomes
too large. I wouldn’t worry about this ruining your fantasy
playoff run this week but it may present an issue next week.
Fantasy owners should also note that Kicker Greg Zuerlein was
placed on IR this week. Sam Ficken has been picked up by the team
and although there will be plenty of opportunities for the rookie
free agent out of Penn State, I would prefer a known commodity
in my Semifinal or Championship lineup.
Passing
Game Thoughts: It feels like the Titans couldn’t
get on the same page this year. By the time the defense figured
things out, the offense was swirling the drain. That’s the
current state of the passing game as we head into Week 16. That
might be overstating things, but it certainly feels like Tennessee
has come up short on expectations every week. The interceptions
have not been as frequent for Marcus Mariota but he isn’t
even a lock to surpass 200 yards passing on a weekly basis. The
lack of output in the passing game has not only deflated the fantasy
value of his receivers, but it has made it more difficult on the
running game as well. The Titans have tried to help Mariota out
by using more Delanie Walker in recent weeks but even that isn’t
working. Walker’s 19 targets over the past two weeks have
led to only ten catches and 79 yards. That number of targets is
not easy to find at the tight end so he’ll be a low end
TE1 despite the lack of production. Rishard Matthews has been
the most consistent receiver on this team but the matchup isn’t
great. L.A. just held the Seahawks and Russell Wilson without
a passing touchdown and Mariota isn’t on the same level
of Wilson. Matthews is still in contention for a Flex spot in
deeper pools but he I wouldn’t touch him with a thirty-nine
and a half-foot pole otherwise.
LAR FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.23
LAR FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.4
LAR FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.25
LAR FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.13
Running Game Thoughts: The Rams are not a “lock down”
rushing defense but Tennessee is not playing well enough to take
advantage of any matchups these days. DeMarco Murray tied a season
high 18 carries in last week’s loss to the 49ers. Unfortunately,
he still couldn’t muster up a decent RB2 outing with only
59 rushing yards and four receiving yards towards the ledger.
It’s been a lost season for Murray supporters and this week’s
game will only add to the slope of his decline. The coaching staff’s
desire to use Derrick Henry more in the second half doesn’t
work out well when the other team is winning. I do think this
game will be close until about halfway through the fourth quarter
to allow Henry to reach double digit carries for the first time
since Week 13. Nevertheless, it’s hard to get excited about
the minority player in Tennessee’s RBBC no matter how talented
they appear.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Ben Roethlisberger has not faced Houston
since 2014 but he has thrown six touchdowns in his three career
games started against them. He’s scored less than 15 fantasy
points eleven times in 2017 but has come on stronger within the
past five weeks. He hasn’t been consistent enough to lock
in as a starter but the matchup is good enough on Monday night
to push into the top 12 for Week 16. Antonio Brown is wearing
the yellow jersey as we enter the second to last week in the NFL.
He has more than 200 receiving yards than the next best player
and just went over the 100-reception mark for the fifth straight
season. Unfortunately he will miss this game due to a calf injury.
Martavis Bryant has been as streaky as Big Ben and remains a touchdown
or bust fantasy play. JuJu Smith-Shuster returned from his suspension
and promptly posted a six-catch 100-yard performance. Like Bryant,
the inconsistencies have made JuJu a risky flex option but he
has received at least five targets in every game he has played
since Week 8, but with Brown out his Flex appeal can be bumped
up to WR2 status. Eli Rogers and tight end Jesse James are splitting
the remaining reps in the passing game with. Both players have
struggled to get consistent looks as a result and cannot be trusted
in fantasy lineups.
HOU FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.2
HOU FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.24
HOU FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.3
HOU FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.5
Running Game Thoughts: There isn’t any reason to deviate
from standard operating procedure this week. Le’Veon Bell
has been fantasy football’s second best running back behind
only Todd Gurley. He is an elite option and nobody is benching
him in redraft leagues. The Steelers are playoff bound and will
want to lock in the No.2 seed in the AFC with a win this week.
That should prevent the possibility of the team resting Bell towards
the end of the game, making him a strong play in DFS leagues as
well. The Steelers placed James Connor on IR this week and picked
up Stevan Ridley to take his place on the roster. Ridley will
serve as depth in this game while Fitzgerald Toussaint gets bumped
into the primary backup role. Toussaint saw only one carry a week
ago so don’t expect him to see more than a few token snaps
in this game.
Passing
Game Thoughts: T.J. Yates didn’t do much against
the Jags last week but he was able to notch at least one score
to get DeAndre Hopkins owners through a rough matchup. Reports
are going back and forth this week as to whether Tom Savage (concussion)
has been placed on IR. Either way, it looks like the team is moving
forward with Yates at the helm. The passing game isn’t likely
to soar against the Steelers this week so taking a chance on anyone
behind Hopkins is a risk fantasy owners should avoid. For those
thrill seekers looking to Houston to deliver in Week 16, Will
Fuller represents the best plan B. He hauled in five passes in
his return from a collarbone injury. Targets are the limiting
factor in Fuller’s fantasy prospects this week. I just don’t
see Houston throwing the ball more than they need to and Hopkins
will surely get a large share. The lack of another solid option
in the passing game may be just enough to make Fuller a top 30
wide receiver in PPR leagues but he’s a risky flex in standard
scoring.
PIT FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.26
PIT FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.15
PIT FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.22
PIT FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.30
Running Game Thoughts: There are slim pickings in the Texans
backfield these days. Lamar Miller and Alfred Blue saw identical
offensive snap counts (31) in splitting the entire workload in
Week 15 (Jordan Todman and Andre Ellington didn’t see a
single snap on offense). Miller had nine carries to Blue’s
twelve but Miller’s four targets helped make up the difference.
If Houston is going to use both running backs in an even split
with Yates under center, there won’t be much fantasy value
to mine. Blue was effective last week (4.1 YPC) which only makes
him more likely to get half the workload again this week. However,
there is a glimmer of hope for anyone settling on a Houston running
back as their RB2 in Week 16. Pittsburgh has given up five rushing
touchdowns over the past two games and although Blue could easily
vulture any red zone carries it is conceivable that either guy
could see his number called at the goal. Both players are low-end
(desperation) RB2 options with an expected 10-15 touches in a
RBBC situation.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Jameis Winston threw a pair of interceptions
and failed to throw for a touchdown when these two teams last
met in October. He’s coming off an excellent game against
the Falcons and has another quality matchup to keep things going
this weekend. The Panthers have been good at containing Mike Evans
over the years but they are not going to stop Winston from locking
onto his favorite receiver. The team isn’t going to stick
with the run when their best chance at winning this game is through
the air. O.J. Howard had his rookie season cut short by an ankle
injury. Now that Howard has been placed on IR, Cameron Brate gets
the spotlight to himself over the next two weeks. That could be
a boon for fantasy owners considering only the Eagles have gotten
more production out of their tight ends this year. Brate makes
for a tidy stocking stuffer this week with an average of 17 yards
per catch in four games played against the Panthers. It took 15
weeks, but Adam Humphries finally scored his first touchdown of
the season. That’s not a ringing endorsement for Humphries
but he has been consistently better than DeSean Jackson for a
while now. I wouldn’t plug him into a lineup but it does
reflect the limited nature of the Bucs passing game after you
get past Mike Evans.
CAR FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.21
CAR FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.30
CAR FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.10
CAR FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.21
Running Game Thoughts: Doug Martin emerges from the dog house
on a short lease this week. At least it appears that he has. After
last week’s healthy scratch stemming from a violation from
team rules, fantasy managers hoping to use Martin will want to
have a backup plan in place. The Bucs may simply decide to give
other players a longer look if they are ready to cast Martin aside
in the off-season. With Martin in “time-out” Peyton
Barber has been given more opportunities. Barber isn’t the
talk of the town but he has earned a few carries even if Martin
returns for this game. Tampa Bay isn’t giving their running
game much room to run this year as evidenced by being the second
least productive fantasy backfield through 15 weeks. A RBBC on
a poor running football team does not equal fantasy success. Unless
the Bucs announce Barber as the clear-cut starter prior to the
game, I’d simply avoid this backfield until 2018.
Passing
Game Thoughts: What happens when you take CB Vincent Hargreaves
(placed on IR) out of a secondary that has been extremely kind
to opposing passing attacks? It may not be five golden rings but
it could help them reach their fifth NFC division title game.
In a year that has seen much of the fantasy picture in the AFC
already sewn up, the NFC South offers plenty of last minute intrigue.
Carolina can take a one-game lead in the division with a win over
the Bucs and a Falcons road win against the Saints. Carolina may
be up for sale, but Cam Newton is set up to be the perfect drummer
boy for plenty fantasy wins this week.
Newton is back on the upswing as a fantasy quarterback and why
not play him in a crucial game against one of the worst defenses
in the league? Devin Funchess is among the long list of banged
up fantasy assets this time of year. The talented wideout missed
practice Wednesday but he’s not likely to miss this big
a game. He’s coming off a poor outing versus the Packers
but the immense upside outweighs the potential failure so give
him a mulligan and squeeze him into your lineup.
The real man of the hour will likely be Greg Olsen. The longtime
Panthers tight end reeled in nine of twelve targets to pave the
way for Carolina’s tenth win of the year a week ago. He
might actually post even stronger numbers this week considering
the difficulties Tampa has had with covering tight ends this season.
Damiere Byrd saw 28 more snaps than Russell Shepard last week
to take over as the No.2 wide receiver on the depth chart. He
came out of nowhere to score twice last week and figures to see
a handful of targets once again in Week 16. I’m not jumping
aboard the hype train here, but there is value to a guy getting
targets in a quality matchup to put up Flex worthy numbers. Christian
McCaffrey will vacuum most of the remaining passes so keep the
rest of Carolina’s pass catchers on the bench.
TB FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.10
TB FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.6
TB FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.1
TB FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.31
Running Game Thoughts: It was only a matter of time before the
resurrection of Jonathan Stewart broke down. He stalled against
the Packers and saw his three-game touchdown streak end in the
process. He’s not likely to see a ton of yards this week
but the team he could still wind up being a decent fantasy play
if he can find the end zone. I expect the Carolina offense won’t
have too much trouble moving the ball against the Bucs giving
Stewie has a good shot at seeing some carries near the goal. Christian
McCaffrey supplemented both the running game and receiving game
last week and dynasty league owners saw a glimpse of what could
arrive in 2018. If given the touches he should light up Tampa
Bay’s defense but the team shouldn’t need to lean
on him this week. I expect a solid game but he’s more Flex
in standard leagues while retaining his typical RB2 status in
PPR leagues.
Passing
Game Thoughts: It’s a rematch of two NFC destroyers
and should be fun to watch. Unfortunately, Julio Jones is nursing
a tweaked ankle and has missed practice all week. He’s going
to play and have his moments, but it’s tough to get a sore
ankle loose in warmups let alone keep it that way throughout four
quarters of football. I’d steer clear of him in DFS lineups
and at least entertain the notion of sitting him this week if
you have better options (chances are you don’t). Matt Ryan
gets downgraded this week; more so because of the overall matchup
than Jones’ health. The Saints have been a slightly favorable
matchup but the Falcons veteran quarterback hasn’t been
playing well. Whether it is the game plan or Ryan himself, he
comes into a tough road game with a lot of questions marks. Julio’s
ankle problem should benefit Mohamed Sanu in this game. He caught
six balls against New Orleans a couple of weeks ago and could
see that number climb in Week 16. Justin Hardy isn’t going
to sneak up on anyone when he is in the huddle for goal line situations.
Yet he and Tyler Gabriel represent dark horse fantasy options
this week. If Jones exits early and Coleman isn’t chipping
in with a few receptions, one of these two players will get more
opportunities. Without knowing the full extent of Jones’
injury, however, it’s probably not wise to go down this
path.
NO FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.20
NO FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.19
NO FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.17
NO FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.28
Running Game Thoughts: New Orleans has been vulnerable against
the run this season and Atlanta brings a good rushing game to
the table. Devonta Freeman runs with a purpose and no doubt feels
the same motivation as the rest of the roster as they head to
the bayou for a critical divisional game against the Saints. He’s
going to see optimal touches as the team leans on him to keep
the Saints off the field. Tevin Coleman returned to practice this
week and has made progress in the concussion protocol. However,
he hasn’t been practicing at full and his status for this
weekend’s game is very much up in the air. Normally a worthy
Flex option, Coleman becomes a risky play if given clearance since
his touches may be suppressed in his first game back. Should Coleman
miss another game, Terron Ward will step into a backup role. He
isn’t worth starting but he may be worth putting on your
roster just in case things go wrong for the Falcons this weekend.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Drew Brees has plenty of motivation coming
into this weekend. Not only is he trying to capture another division
title for the Saints, but he will be looking to erase the ill-advised
passes he made the last time these two teams met. The couple of
touchdowns that weren’t allowed last week probably are not
going over too well either. After years of being known for spreading
the ball around, Brees has efficiently used Michael Thomas and
his running backs to beat defenses all season long. The team’s
wins have piled up but it has dented some of the fantasy expectations
along the way and the same holds true this week. Adding more motivation,
Ted Ginn Jr. practiced this week after missing last week with
a rib injury he suffered at the hands of the Falcons two weeks
ago. Karma has a way of showing up in these types of football
games and I wouldn’t be surprised if Brees makes a point
of finding Ginn in the end zone at least once as a result. Be
warned, outside of Thomas, everyone in this passing game carries
inherent fantasy risk this week. Ginn is coming off an injury,
Brandon Coleman hasn’t had more than three receptions since
the second week of the season. Willie Snead hasn’t gone
over three targets in a single game this year and TE Josh Hill
hasn’t seen more than three targets in the past five weeks.
ATL FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.16
ATL FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.25
ATL FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.21
ATL FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.18
Running Game Thoughts: New Orleans must win to retain their claim
on the NFC title so don’t expect the team to deviate from
their bread and butter. Mark Ingram has come on strong with Alvin
Kamara getting over a concussion. Both backs are as healthy as
any running back can be in Week 16 of the NFL and there isn’t
much to analyze at this point. Kamara was still productive despite
seeing a few less touches coming off a concussion last week. Ingram
was involved all over the field to keep providing quality production
to his owners. Continue to start both players with confidence
and hope an unforeseen early exit doesn’t rob you of a fantasy
title in the process.
Passing
Game Thoughts: After a shocking win over the Patriots in
Week 14 in which he threw three touchdowns without an interception,
Jay Cutler returned to his usual self in Week 15 as he did the
opposite – zero touchdowns with three interceptions against
the Bills. Cutler himself has always been a volatile QB but it’s
been as bad as ever this season and that makes him hard to trust
even in quality matchups like the one he faces in Week 16 against
the Chiefs. Cutler will also be without tight end Julius Thomas
who was placed on season-ending IR this week and may be without
DeVante Parker who has not yet practiced this week as of Thursday.
Even if Parker does play, his usage has been spotty enough that
he’s nothing more than a WR3 at this point without huge
upside as he hasn’t scored a touchdown since Week 3 and
hasn’t topped 100 receiving yards at all this season. The
one player in this passing game who has been and will likely continue
to be the go-to man is Jarvis Landry who, despite one of the lowest
yards per reception averages in the league, is one of the most
efficient players in target-to-reception ratio. Landry has now
surpassed 90 receptions in three straight seasons and is on pace
to challenge his own career high of 110 receptions in a season.
Landry has caught at least five passes in every game this season
which makes him one of the highest floor players in all of fantasy
football but he has also not topped 100 yards in any game so his
upside isn’t great either. He’s a low-end WR1 in PPR
formats and a mid-to-low level WR2 in non-PPR formats against
this Kansas City defense that has given up seven 100-plus-yard
days to opposing wide receivers in 2017.
KC FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.11
KC FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.16
KC FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.4
KC FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.20
Running Game Thoughts: With Damien Williams trending likely to
miss his fourth straight game, the late-season breakout of Kenyan
Drake figures to continue in Week 16 as the young running back
will face a Kansas City defense that has given up an average of
140 total yards per game to running backs over their past five
contests. The Chiefs are looking to secure their spot in the playoffs
but the Dolphins don’t appear to be ready to fold yet this
season so look for them to feed Drake both in the running and
passing games, making him nearly a lock for around 20 or more
touches in this game. That kind of usage alone should make Drake
a viable RB1 for fantasy with plenty of upside to produce yet
another top five week at the position.
Passing
Game Thoughts: The high upside that Alex Smith put on display
in the first half of the season feels like a thing of the past
now as Smith has failed to reach 20 fantasy points in six of his
past seven games, but Smith has remained one of the higher floor
players at the quarterback position. Much of that is due to the
lack of interceptions that he has thrown, with only five on the
year, and he’ll be against a Miami defense that has only
forced nine total interceptions – tied for eighth-fewest
in the league. Smith himself is only a low-end QB1 for teams that
are just trying to play it safe in their championship week but
his top targets, Tyreek Hill and tight end Travis Kelce, remain
among the top players at their respective positions. Hill has
caught four or more passes in five straight contests, displaying
the explosive playmaking ability that gives him incredible upside
but also the target volume to remain a high floor player most
weeks. That lethal combination has made Hill one of the best overall
fantasy receivers this season as he’s been able to limit
his truly “bad” games while still producing some monster
weeks for his owners. He’ll be among the better WR1’s
on the board this week. Kelce is dealing with a back injury that
has kept him out of practice but he is expected to suit up this
weekend and should again be one of the top tight ends. He has
caught three or more passes in all but one game this season and
he’s the top-scoring tight end in fantasy football on the
season so the only real concern here is health. If he’s
able to play, he’ll be a big part of the Chiefs offensive
gameplan so feel free to place him in your lineup as usual.
MIA FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.18
MIA FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.8
MIA FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.27
MIA FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.6
Running Game Thoughts: Kareem Hunt started the 2017 season as
the breakout star of fantasy football but a long stretch of weak
performances through the middle of the season had fantasy owners
wondering if they had made the wrong decision in acquiring him.
Hunt has come through down the stretch, however, as he has now
produced huge games in back-to-back weeks leading into this Week
16 contest against the Dolphins. Miami has done a great job of
slowing down opposing running games in recent weeks but their
three game sample size of holding the Patriots, Broncos and Bills
running games in check looks more like a blip on the radar when
you consider the entirety of the season, where they’ve been
among the worst run defenses in the league. One interesting point
to note is that the Dolphins have given up the firth-most receptions
to opposing running backs this season and Hunt has shown the ability
to make plays in the passing game when given the chance. Look
for the Chiefs to give Hunt a healthy workload on the ground along
with five to seven targets in the passing game, which should make
him one of the better options in the league this week.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Desperate fantasy owners who took a chance
on Blake Bortles this past week were rewarded in a big way as
the Jaguars QB delivered one of his best performances of the season,
a 326-yard, three touchdown, zero interception game against a
dreadful Houston defense. Bortles will again be one of the top
streaming options here in Week 16 as he’ll be against another
bad pass defense in San Francisco. The 49ers have forced just
one interception while allowing nine passing touchdowns over their
past five games, and most of those games have been against bottom-half
starters including Eli Manning, Mitchell Trubisky and the ugly
combination of Tom Savage and T.J. Yates. Bortles is rarely someone
who we’re excited to roll out for fantasy purposes but we’ll
make an exception against defenses like this. He’s still
not an elite option but you could certainly do worse than Bortles
in this matchup.
What’s interesting is that, while Bortles has been very
productive as of late, his receivers have been quite difficult
to predict production from. With Marqise Lee sidelined due to
injury, it’s been the combination of Dede Westbrook, Keelan
Cole and Jaydon Mickens who have stepped up as of late. Westbrook
is the player with the most invested in him but Cole has been
the most successful of the bunch, catching 13 of his 15 targets
for 334 yards and three touchdowns over his past three contests;
making him the third-highest-scoring wide receiver in the league
over that stretch. Cole is far from a sure thing but he seems
to have solid chemistry with Bortles and he’s been playing
a high number of snaps even when Lee has been healthy. None of
the Jacksonville receivers are ones that fantasy owners should
be locking themselves into this week but if Bortles is going to
go off again, there are fantasy points to be had from the wide
receivers. Cole and Westbrook are both WR3 options with Cole being
the preferred option due to his recent surprising output.
SF FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.6
SF FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.10
SF FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.14
SF FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.19
Running Game Thoughts: It’s been frustrating to own Leonard
Fournette this season mostly due to injuries and a random suspension
that kept him out of the lineup one week but one thing's for sure
– when he’s been on the field, he’s been excellent
for fantasy purposes. Now that he’s practicing in full after
missing last week’s game with a quad injury, Fournette figures
to be back in the conversation as a high-end RB1 in Week 16 against
a 49ers defense that ranks in the bottom-10 in fantasy points
given up to opposing running backs this season. While they’ve
actually been quite good as of late, the reality is that they’ve
been going up against some struggling offenses and that has certainly
helped to make their defense look substantially better than it
really is. With Jacksonville seemingly unlikely to fall behind
further than a score at any time during this game, look for them
to lean heavily on the running game, potentially leading to Fournette
getting the most total touches of any running back in the league
this week. That alone makes him a must-start RB1.
Passing
Game Thoughts: The 49ers’ trade to acquire Jimmy
Garoppolo is looking better and better with each passing week
as the young quarterback has shown the type of leadership, poise,
arm strength and touch that NFL Draft scouts only dream about.
Taking over under center for one of the worst rosters in football,
Garoppolo has truly changed the mentality of this franchise in
just a matter of weeks. He has the team playing better in seemingly
every aspect but the fact that they’re actually able to
throw the ball with some consistency has been a major change for
the offense. The connection between Garoppolo and wide receiver
Marquise Goodwin is the one we’re looking at for fantasy
purposes as the duo has connected an impressive 24 times for 319
yards in Jimmy G’s three starts. Unfortunately, after facing
some of the league’s worst secondaries during that stretch,
the 49ers will now matchup against perhaps the best secondary
in football as they host the Jaguars in Week 16.
Jacksonville has given up the fewest fantasy points to both opposing
quarterbacks and wide receivers this season. They also lead the
league in sacks. All of these factors have to be a major concern
for owners of both Garoppolo and Goodwin, who are the only players
who should be in fantasy consideration in this passing game in
Week 16. The downside is strong enough in this game that Garoppolo
should really only be in two-QB lineups, while Goodwin goes from
being a strong WR2 to more of a flex-worthy lottery ticket type
player who could beat the defense deep if he gets lined up in
the right spots to avoid A.J. Bouye and Jalen Ramsey.
JAC FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.32
JAC FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.26
JAC FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.32
JAC FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.29
Running Game Thoughts: He touched the ball 18 times in Week 15
which is exactly what we hoped for but 39 total yards and no touchdowns
against the Titans has to be considered a gigantic letdown for
Carlos Hyde owners. Hyde has been one of the more consistent players
in fantasy in terms of getting the ball, especially over the second
half of the season, but the 49ers’ new found love with the
passing game has seemingly not been good for Hyde’s fantasy
production as he’s been held to an average of fewer than
10 fantasy points (PPR) per game since Garoppolo took over. Hyde
has another very difficult matchup against a great Jacksonville
defense this week that has held opposing running backs to the
seventh-fewest fantasy points in the league this season. One area
where they’ve been particularly good is against pass-catching
backs, as they’ve given up the sixth-fewest receiving yards
to opposing backs this season. This doesn’t bode well for
Hyde as he’s been doing a lot of his fantasy damage as a
receiver after struggling to do so in previous San Francisco offensive
schemes. Hyde is still unquestionably the player to own in this
backfield and he could sneak into the end zone, but he’s
more of a mid-to-low-end RB2 this week as opposed to the low-end
RB1 that he usually is in easier matchups.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Eli Manning did everything he could to will
his Giants to a victory over the Eagles this past week but it
just wasn’t quite enough. Manning did make his fantasy owners
happy, though, with a gigantic 434 yard, three touchdown performance
where he threw just one interception in 57 pass attempts. The
Giants needed that type of passing volume to keep up on the scoreboard
against Philadelphia but that doesn’t seem likely to be
the case again this week as Eli and the Giants head to Arizona
to face the low-scoring Cardinals. Arizona’s offense has
been decimated by injuries this season once again which has kept
them in low-scoring games most week, which does hurt Manning’s
potential in this contest enough that he should again only be
considered as a bottom-end starter in two-QB formats.
However, two players who need to be strongly considered for starting
spots on your fantasy roster are wide receiver Sterling Shepard
and tight end Evan Engram. Shepard blew up this past week with
his best fantasy game of the season, an 11-catch, 139-yard game
with a touchdown against the Eagles. Normally Patrick Peterson
shadows the opposing WR1 on teams but Shepard plays most of his
snaps out of the slot, where Peterson rarely lines up in coverage.
This should make Shepard an interesting WR2 against an Arizona
defense that has been exploited by slot receivers throughout the
season. This should also benefit Engram, who plays tight end but
is often lined up in the slot himself. Engram has been highly
targeted as of late and that figures to continue again this week.
ARI FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.8
ARI FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.27
ARI FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.15
ARI FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.22
Running Game Thoughts: With Orleans Darkwa, Wayne Gallman and
Shane Vereen practically splitting snaps evenly over the past
three weeks, there really isn’t a lot to love in this New
York Giants backfield. Vereen and Gallman have both been utilized
fairly heavily in the passing game as of late, but much of that
has been due to game script which has forced the Giants to pass
an unusually high number of times. Vereen isn’t trustworthy
even in PPR formats and unfortunately neither is Gallman despite
him seeing more touches than Vereen as a runner. Darkwa seemingly
remains the team’s “goal line back” –
if there is one – but this game figures to be one of the
lowest scoring contests of the week, so the opportunities to get
into the end zone will likely be fewer and further between than
usual. If you have to play one of them, it’d be Gallman
in a PPR and Darkwa in a standard league, but avoiding this situation
altogether is the best move.
Passing
Game Thoughts: If a running game led by Kerwynn Williams
doesn’t get you excited, how about a passing game led by
Drew Stanton? No? Didn’t think so. Yeah, this offense is
in rough shape right now, but one player continues to produce
viable fantasy numbers despite being in one of the most beaten
down offenses in the league, and that is veteran wideout Larry
Fitzgerald. Fitzgerald has caught three or more passes in every
game this season and he’s had double-digit catches in four
different contests with three different quarterbacks. One of those
games came back in Week 10 with Drew Stanton behind center, against
a relatively healthy Seattle secondary, when he went for 10 catches
and 113 receiving yards. Sure, Fitzgerald takes a step back with
Stanton behind center, but he’s still seeing such a high
target volume from short-to-intermediate range that he remains
one of the higher floor wide receivers in the league. The “boom”
potential isn’t high here but Fitzgerald should still be
looked at as a low-end WR1 in PPR formats and a decent enough
WR2 even in standard-scoring formats.
The other receivers in this passing game should continue to be
on your bench, or preferably unowned entirely, as they just have
not shown any sort of consistency that would make it worth considering
starting them even in great matchups like this one against the
Giants and their 25th-ranked fantasy defense against opposing
wide receivers. Another player to keep an eye on is tight end
Ricky Seals-Jones who has been very hit through the second half
of the season but could be a sneaky play against a Giants defense
that has given up a league-leading 13 touchdowns to opposing tight
ends and the most total points to the position by a wide margin
this season.
NYG FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.1
NYG FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.7
NYG FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.8
NYG FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.1
Running Game Thoughts: The Cardinals haven’t been the greatest
fantasy offense as a whole this season but they’ve done
a great job of making it clear who their “bell cow”
will be each week. Unlike many teams that choose to rotate in
a plethora of backs which makes things much more confusing and
frustrating for fantasy owners, the Cardinals have chosen to primarily
stick with one back throughout a game, whether that back is successful
or not. Ever since the neck injury to Adrian Peterson, that back
has been Kerwynn Williams who has amassed 53 carries in just his
past three games. He’s essentially useless in the passing
game so that hurts his PPR value but Williams has been relied
on heavily to mask the team’s weakness at quarterback and
that will be prevalent as ever this week with Stanton behind center.
He’s not particularly highly skilled but the Giants are
giving up a whopping 168 total yards per game to opposing running
backs over their past five contests so there’s fantasy production
to be had here. Unfortunately, Williams is dealing with a quad
injury that knocked him out the game in Week 15 and has held him
out of practice through the early part of this week. If Williams
is unable to suit up, look for the Cardinals to turn to Elijhaa
Penny, who carried the ball 10 times for 45 yards in relief of
Williams this past week against the Redskins. We likely won’t
know Williams’ status until close to game time so if you’re
looking to make use out of someone in this backfield, be sure
to pick up Penny and keep an eye on the situation as we get closer
to kickoff. If Penny does get the start, he makes for a very high
upside minimum salary play in daily formats.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Tyrod Taylor kept the Bills right in the
thick of the playoff hunt with his best performance of the season
last week. Taylor threw for 224 yards and a touchdown and rushed
for 42 yards and a touchdown in a win over Miami. The last time
Taylor faced the Patriots, he didn’t make it through the
game. Now fully healthy, he should find himself in a favorable
fantasy situation for championship week. Taylor could have success
this week, but he won’t find it by throwing to any of his
wide receivers. Kelvin Benjamin caught both of his targets for
20 yards, but the main takeaway is he saw just two targets. Even
with Jordan Matthews done for the season, Zay Jones still didn’t
see the field. Charles Clay was Taylor’s main man with nine
targets, catching five for 68 yards. He will be a viable streaming
option this week. Otherwise, there’s not much to the Bills
passing attack.
NE FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.5
NE FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.14
NE FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.2
NE FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.23
Running Game Thoughts: LeSean McCoy
was ineffective on the ground last week, rushing for just 50 yards
on 20 carries, but he was excellent through the air and scored
twice. McCoy got the job done for fantasy owners in Week 15. His
receiving touchdown was a thing of beauty on an excellent wheel
route. McCoy rushed for 93 yards against the Patriots three weeks
ago and will once again be the focal point of the offense. He’s
been ceding a few snaps to Travaris Cadet, but with just two weeks
left in the season and a playoff berth at stake, I would expect
McCoy to handle all the work he can as each of these remaining
two games is of immense importance. Fire up Shady as usual.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Let’s play a game. Who has more touchdowns
over the past three weeks: Tom Brady or T.J. Yates? I’ll
give you a hint. Yates has only played two games in that span.
The answer is still T.J. Yates. Brady’s finishes over the
past three weeks: QB27, QB23, QB18. If you own Brady, you probably
started him. If you somehow made it to your championship game,
it was in spite of Brady, not because of him. Against these Bills
three weeks ago, Brady had as many touchdown passes as I did.
He hasn’t thrown for over 300 yards since Week 11 and four
of his six 300+ yard games came in the first five weeks of the
season. He’s also thrown at least one interception in four
consecutive games. Chris Hogan did not play last week and cannot
be trusted even if he is active. Rob Gronkowski’s return
made a huge impact last week as he was responsible for 168 of
Brady’s 298 yards, leading the team with 13 targets. Brady’s
lone touchdown went to Brandin Cooks, who got back on track with
60 yards and a score on four receptions. No one else in the passing
game did anything of note. Gronk remains the best TE in the league
and Cooks is still a strong start, but I would seriously consider
an alternative to Brady if you have one. I am not suggesting to
go out and pick up Joe Flacco or Jacoby Brissett, but merely cautioning
that Brady is not an auto-start.
BUF FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.29
BUF FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.1
BUF FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.28
BUF FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.15
Running Game Thoughts: Another week. Another Rex Burkhead touchdown.
Unfortunately, it was his last of 2017 as Burkhead suffered a
knee injury that will knock him out until at least the NFL playoffs.
It’s unfortunate for a guy that had become incredibly reliable
for fantasy owners and the Patriots late in the season. I do not
think this means anything for Mike Gillislee other than the fact
that he’ll probably be active this week. Dion Lewis should
see the goal line carries and James White will see an uptick in
snaps. Lewis becomes a must start player, while White at least
is an option, which is more than we can say about him for the
past month or so. Lewis had his second best rushing performance
of the season against the Bills three weeks ago, posting 92 yards
on 15 carries. I would expect 10-15 carries again for Lewis as
well as increased involvement in the passing game and goal line
carries. Since Brady doesn’t throw touchdowns anymore, you
want Lewis in your lineup.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Vance Joseph is playing coy with his starting
QB as if his team is somehow relevant. If healthy, I expect Paxton
Lynch to get the nod and a final two-game audition to prove he
truly has no business on an NFL roster. Obviously no one is starting
a Broncos QB in fantasy, but Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders
are both relevant. If Lynch starts, Thomas and Sanders will both
be tough plays this week. With Osweiler last week, Thomas and
Sanders both had solid WR3 lines with 12 catches between them
and 68 and 69 yards respectively. Before last week, Sanders had
caught eight passes over his previous four games combined. He
has just one 100-yard receiving game with his next highest being
76 yards. Thomas has been startable more often than not, but will
have to deal with Josh Norman this week. He’s not an auto-bench,
but I would look for alternatives if possible. If Osweiler starts,
I have more confidence in Thomas as they have a legitimate rapport
unlike Thomas and any other QB. Also note that Sanders is dealing
with an ankle injury and is no lock to play.
WAS FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.17
WAS FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.12
WAS FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.23
WAS FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.3
Running Game Thoughts: C.J. Anderson
rushed for 158 yards last week on 30 carries while Devontae Booker
had 11 carries of his own. The Broncos ran the ball 42 times against
just 26 pass attempts. It’s clear what their game plan is
going to be. The positive game script may not be as clear cut
this week so they certainly won’t be able to run as much.
Nevertheless, Anderson is a decent volume play against a collapsing
Redskins run defense. I would not get overexcited, however, chasing
last week’s output.
Passing
Game Thoughts: It hasn’t been the greatest season
for Kirk Cousins. He’s on pace for over 700 fewer passing
yards than he had in 2016. It’s hard to pinpoint exactly
what went wrong for Cousins, but it’s not ridiculous to
blame the wide receivers. Cousins had a rapport with Pierre Garcon
and DeSean Jackson that was taken away from him. Terrelle Pryor
was a nothing. Josh Doctson has taken over as the main outside
receiver, but he hasn’t been treated like one. Doctson has
yet to catch more than four passes in a game and his highest yardage
total over the past four weeks is 34. He is nothing more than
a touchdown or bust option. Jamison Crowder has been more reliable,
but he hasn’t really had many strong weeks. He has just
two touchdowns on the season and only three games with seven or
more receptions. All Redskins WRs will struggle this week against
the Broncos’ elite cornerback duo of Aqib Talib and Chris
Harris. Vernon Davis plays TE for this team, but he hasn’t
been relevant in weeks and is not a viable option.
DEN FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.24
DEN FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.28
DEN FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.31
DEN FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.4
Running Game Thoughts: Samaje Perine has played better than the
box score since taking over for useless Rob Kelly. Unfortunately,
the Redskins offense has not performed well and there have been
too many injuries to the offensive line. Denver is not a favorable
matchup as well. The deck is stacked against Perine even though
he comes with one of the higher touch floors in the league. It’s
hard to envision Perine touching the ball fewer than 15 times.
Regardless, he’s more of a floor play than a ceiling play
this week. Perine also left Thursday’s practice with a groin
injury, putting his status for Sunday’s game in doubt. If
Perine can’t go, then Kapri Bibbs would be the primary beneficiary
and be even less inspiring than Perine.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Seattle completely no-showed last week in
their biggest game of the season, getting obliterated at home
by the superior Rams. Russell Wilson threw for a season low 142
yards and threw just a single touchdown for the first time since
Week 5 against…you guessed it…the Rams. Wilson looked
out of sorts last week and while we can blame the offensive line,
the reality is Wilson is victimized by a truly horrendous coaching
staff and awful play calling. Without the visual from behind Wilson,
it’s impossible to know what he sees, but from the looks
of it, his receivers are constantly running deep routes despite
the fact that the offensive line can’t give Wilson time.
It just doesn’t make sense and there is no reason to expect
it to get any better against Dallas, a team that possesses a formidable
pass rush. Wilson is constantly scrambling around like a madman
trying to make plays.
He should play better this week as it is difficult to play any
worse if you survived his Week 15 dud. But do not expect the same
from his number one receiver, Paul Richardson. Richardson has
led the team in averaging 6.6 targets over the past five weeks,
but has only posted two useful fantasy days in that span. Doug
Baldwin is nothing more than a touchdown or bust option with just
5.2 targets per game over the same span. He’s seen more
than six targets in a game just six games this season and has
just 13 receptions over his past five games combined. Jimmy Graham
is a shell of a shell of his former self. I wouldn’t be
surprised if his 40 time was over a full second slower than it
was when he was in New Orleans. He looks like he’s running
through molasses. Graham caught just one pass for negative one
yards last week, which follows up his 0-0 Week 14 effort. If Graham
doesn’t catch a short touchdown, he’s useless. The
Seahawks passing game does not possess a single player that can
reliably produce without touchdowns. Wilson is the only player
on this offense I would trust.
DAL FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.12
DAL FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.21
DAL FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.5
DAL FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.14
Running Game Thoughts: I don’t know why Seattle bothers
running the ball. Mike Davis and J.D. McKissic had almost identical
games last week, each taking six carries for 20 and 19 yards respectively.
Wilson led the team in rushing with 39 yards on five attempts.
Davis is the back to start if you have to, but with the offensive
line’s inability to block and the rotation between Davis
and McKissic, it’s hard to imagine any potential championship
teams with either of these two in the starting lineup.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Dak Prescott did not have his best game
last week, but he was useful enough to not kill you if you started
him. Now he gets a Seahawks defense that just gave up 34 points
in a half to the Rams. More importantly, he gets Ezekiel Elliott
back. Prescott was an elite QB1 over the first eight weeks of
the season and has a favorable matchup this week with his offense
at full strength. Dez Bryant caught just two of four targets for
59 yards and was probably more responsible than not for Prescott’s
first interception. He remains a touchdown dependent WR3. Jason
Witten had a solid 4-47 outing on five targets while no one else
did anything of relevance. I lean more towards trusting Prescott
than not this week, but there’s not much else on this passing
attack.
SEA FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.25
SEA FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.20
SEA FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.11
SEA FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.24
Running Game Thoughts: Zeke is back! If you somehow made it to
your fantasy championship without Elliott, congratulations. Now,
you have a fully rested elite RB against one of the worst defenses
in the league. Todd Gurley rushed for 152 yards and three touchdowns
last week. It’s all systems go for Elliott, who is undoubtedly
champing at the bit to get back on the field. Elliott has apparently
been training hard and looks to be in the best shape of his NFL
career. Alfred Morris and Rod Smith were quite serviceable in
Zeke’s absence, but they will both return to bit players
and can be benched/dropped across the board.
Passing
Game Thoughts: The Chargers have historically not performed
well traveling cross country to play in the cold. Philip Rivers
faceplanted in a big time spot last week with the division on
the line, throwing for just one touchdown against three interceptions.
Prior to last week’s meltdown, Rivers hadn’t thrown
a pick in five straight games. In fact, if you remove his games
against the Chiefs (his Week 3 performance was his only 2017 game
without a touchdown pass), Rivers would have 23 touchdowns against
just four interceptions on the season. Yes, he’s thrown
six interceptions against the Chiefs and just four against everyone
else. Despite the cold, this is a must win game for the Chargers
and the Jets are not an imposing foe. Keenan Allen was carted
off last week with a back injury in a sight that was scarier than
it actually is. Allen should be ready to go this week and locked
in as an elite WR1. Hunter Henry was coming on strong as a solid
TE1 play, but just like Allen in 2015, Henry suffered a lacerated
kidney on a hit last week. His season is over, which brings the
ghost of the ghost of Antonio Gates back into our lives. Gates
is a legitimate red zone threat, but not much else as at this
point in his career, he can barely move. Tyrell Williams caught
the ire of Rivers last week on a couple missed connections and
interceptions, but it’s not Williams’ fault that Rivers
threw the ball into double coverage. Regardless, Williams is not
a fantasy option.
NYJ FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.3
NYJ FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.17
NYJ FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.9
NYJ FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.9
Running Game Thoughts: Melvin Gordon
dominated running back touches last week and looked the best he’s
looked all season. Gordon led the team in both rushing and receiving,
totaling 169 yards on 25 touches. Gordon will once again be in
line for 20+ touches against the Jets in a game that figures to
feature a ton of positive game script for the Chargers. Austin
Ekeler broke his hand last week and while he may try and play
through it, this is Gordon’s backfield.
Passing
Game Thoughts: The cold weather at home would benefit the
Jets if their team wasn’t quarterbacked by Bryce Petty.
After weeks of being a WR2, Robby Anderson’s target share
was unaffected by Petty’s takeover. However, his efficiency
took a huge hit. Anderson saw 12 targets, but only caught five
of them for just 40 yards. Elijah McGuire as the team’s
leading receiver with 48 yards. The Chargers have a better pass
defense than the Saints and although Tyreek Hill roasted Casey
Heyward for a long touchdown, don’t expect any of that from
the Jets. With Petty at the helm, Anderson is relegated to a boom
or bust option and any thoughts of starting Jermaine Kearse of
Austin Seferian-Jenkins can be put to bed.
LAC FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.27
LAC FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.13
LAC FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.26
LAC FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.26
Running Game Thoughts: All three of the Jets RBs were active last
week and it was Bilal Powell leading the brigade with 13 carries
to Matt Forte’s seven and Elijah McGuire’s four. In
a game the Jets project to trail wire to wire, it’s hard
to envision any of these backs being overly successful. Simply
put, you are not starting any of them.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Derek Carr has actually thrown a touchdown
in every game this season. The problem is that’s pretty
much all he really does. Carr only has five multi-touchdown games
and outside of a three game stretch from weeks 7-9, Carr hasn’t
thrown for over 300 yards and has four games of 171 yards or fewer.
You can certainly start Michael Crabtree, though. He somehow managed
just 39 yards last week despite being targeted an astounding 17
times, but at least he scored twice. Crabtree will continue to
dominate targets, which is enough to make him a strong starting
option in fantasy. The inefficiency is frustrating, but it comes
with the territory when tethered to a mediocre quarterback. Beyond
Crabtree, there’s nothing here. Seth Roberts is the de facto
number two, but he doesn’t see the volume nor does he have
the talent to produce. Cordarrelle Patterson isn’t used
nearly as much as he should be. Jared Cook continues to be the
most overrated tight end of the last decade.
PHI FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.13
PHI FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.31
PHI FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.12
PHI FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.16
Running Game Thoughts: Marshawn
Lynch looks done, but he’s actually been pretty good for
fantasy over the second half of the season. He’s touchdown
dependent, but that’s okay because he’s been scoring
touchdowns. Lynch has crossed the plane five times in his last
six games. With the Raiders season just about over, there is a
risk that Jack Del Rio may want to see more of DeAndre Washington
and Jalen Richard, but I don’t expect that to happen just
yet. Lynch could very well be game scripted out of this week’s
contest, but he’s still the favorite for goal line carries.
You could do worse than Lynch this week.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Carson Wentz continued his ascendant 2017
season last week with his fifth four touchdown game. Oh no? That
wasn’t Wentz? It was actually Nick Foles you say? Wow, I
couldn’t tell the difference. The Eagles offense did not
miss a beat with Foles taking over. Foles dominated the Giants
and should have no trouble throwing all over the hapless Raiders
pass defense. Foles peppered Alshon Jeffery, Zach Ertz, and Nelson
Agholor with targets evenly. They accounted for 28 of Foles’
38 pass attempts and all three of them found the end zone. Jeffery
has scored in six of his last seven games. Ertz got back on track
after missing Week 14 and Agholor has gone from a touchdown or
bust option to a legitimate threat, now having caught 22 passes
over his past three games. All three should be strong options
this week as the Eagles look to lock up the No.1 overall seed.
The only cause for concern would be that Doug Pederson is actually
a good coach and openly stated he has no qualms about resting
players once there’s nothing left to play for. If the Vikings
somehow fall to the Packers on Saturday night, the Eagles will
have nothing to play for. It is something to consider should it
happen. The good news is fantasy owners will know in plenty of
time to make a decision.
OAK FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.19
OAK FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.18
OAK FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.20
OAK FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.8
Running Game Thoughts: There is still nothing to see here for
fantasy with this great real life running game. Jay Ajayi led
the team with 12 carries for 49 yards last week, but if not for
his 40 yards in the air, he would have had a completely useless
fantasy week. As it stands, he was able to salvage a flex-worthy
performance. Ajayi did play 51% of the snaps last week, but that’s
still not high enough to truly trust, especially for a mediocre
talent that doesn’t receive goal line carries. However,
against the Raiders in a game they should lead throughout, Ajayi
is worthy of flex consideration. LeGarrette Blount and Corey Clement
simply do not see enough work to be options.