49ers @ Rams -
(Caron)
Passing Game Thoughts: After starting
the season with an impressive 30 points (standard scoring formats)
against the Packers, the wheels have come off for quarterback
Colin Kaepernick and the San Francisco 49ers as a whole. Not only
has he been unable to throw a single touchdown pass in either
of the past two weeks, he has not yet ran for a touchdown in 2013.
It doesn’t help that tight end Vernon Davis has been injured,
but Kaepernick’s problems go much deeper than that. He hasn’t
been accurate, throwing a total of four interceptions in Weeks
2 and 3, but he has also been under a surprising amount of pressure
from opposing pass rushes. Kaepernick does have the skills to
turn it around at any time, but fantasy owners have to be worried
at the moment—especially those who don’t have access
to a quality backup option. Lost in the offense seems to be Anquan
Boldin who has just six catches for 74 yards since his gigantic
208-yard performance in Week 1. He did lead the team in targets
with eight in Week 3, but the 49ers’ lack of offensive output
has owners scratching their heads. Any player who leads their
team in targets is a worthwhile fantasy consideration and with
Davis questionable to play on Thursday, it seems like Boldin should
fall into that category once again.
If this passing game is going to get things going, their Week
4 matchup against the Rams would be a good time to do it. The
St. Louis defense has allowed multiple passing touchdowns in every
game this season, while having forced only one total interception.
Their pass rush has also taken a step back since a crushing Week
1 performance against Carson Palmer and the Cardinals. With the
49ers’ offense struggling, a short-week matchup against
a struggling defense could be a remedy. The matchup might not
be as favorable in reality as it is on paper, however, as the
Rams did a good job of containing Kaepernick when they played
in 2012. Kaepernick replaced Alex Smith during one of the games,
but it is important to note that he did not throw a touchdown
either time he faced the Rams a season ago. He did, however, rush
for a total of 150 yards and a touchdown.
Running Game Thoughts: Frank Gore had his most productive rushing
performance of the year a week ago in the loss to the Colts, rushing
for 82 yards on just 11 carries. This 7.5 yards per carry average
is a vast improvement from the 2.0 yards per carry he averaged
over the first two games of the season. Unfortunately for fantasy
owners, he conceded the only rushing touchdown of the game to
backup Kendall Hunter, who has just 11 carries on the year through
three games. The running game is still centered around Gore, but
it is a bit concerning that he has only ran the ball 31 times
through the first three weeks combined. A powerhouse offensive
line would typically dictate that a team would run the ball more
often, but the 49ers have fallen behind in each of their past
two games and have needed to rely on the passing game, which hasn’t
worked out well for them.
Gore will have a good matchup this week as he goes up against
a St. Louis Rams defense that has allowed 21 and 26 points to
opposing running backs, respectively, over their past two games.
In Week 3, it was DeMarco Murray and the Cowboys backs who ran
all over the Rams to the rune of 193 yards and a touchdown during
their blowout win. Gore himself had two productive fantasy days
against the Rams in 2012, rushing for a total of 155 yards and
two scores in those games. Gore’s career history against
the Rams is very good, as well. In 13 games against them, Gore
has scored 13 touchdowns and has over 1,200 yards of total offense.
It’s a short week and the 49ers have been struggling in
their passing game, which should mean increased touches for Gore
in the running game. Feel confident putting him in your lineup
as a RB2.
Projections:
Colin Kaepernick: 175 pass yds, 1 TD, 1 INT, 30 rush yds
Frank Gore: 80 rush yds, 1 TD, 10 rec yds
Anquan Boldin: 50 rec yds, 1 TD
Vernon Davis: 30 rec yds
Passing
Game Thoughts: After two excellent performances to start
the season, Sam Bradford fell back to earth a bit in a less-than-stellar
performance against the Cowboys in Week 3. The Rams offensive
line appeared to be gelling very well early in the year, but ran
into a steam roller in Dallas, allowing six sacks in a disastrous
loss where the offense scored just 7 points all day. One thing
Bradford did do was spread the ball around against the Cowboys,
targeting six different receivers at least five times. Unfortunately
none of those receivers had more than eight targets, which made
each player essentially fantasy irrelevant in standard-scoring
formats. Only Austin Pettis, who caught his second touchdown in
as many weeks, finished above six fantasy points. Chris Givens
and Tavon Austin remain the fantasy receivers to own in this offense,
with Givens being the potential big play receiver and Austin having
caught exactly six passes in each of his first three games as
a pro. Unfortunately those 18 total catches from Austin have only
translated into 131 total yards this season. Pettis is someone
to keep on your radar, but it’s hard to believe that he’ll
keep sneaking into the end zone as the fourth option (behind tight
end Jared Cook) in the passing game.
With the Rams offense struggling, a battle against a San Francisco
defense that has only allowed one passing touchdown over their
past two games might be a tough nut to crack. San Francisco held
Andrew Luck to just 164 yards passing and Russell Wilson to 142
yards, each in losses, which tells us that this secondary really
cannot be to blame for the team’s early season struggles.
Bradford has been efficient in the past against San Francisco,
but has never been particularly spectacular. In four career games
against the 49ers, Bradford has thrown for an average of 259 yards
and one touchdown. He has, surprisingly, never thrown an interception
against this team. With all the new options in the passing game,
very few of the other Rams players have a history against the
49ers, but Givens did have a nice game the last time he played
the 49ers at home. In that Week 13 game, Givens caught a career-high
11 passes for 92 yards.
Running Game Thoughts: Fantasy owners of Daryl Richardson were
disgusted to see their player leave last Sunday’s game after
just one carry. In his stead, it was backup Isaiah Pead who stepped
up and actually had a decently productive afternoon despite the
Rams losing in a blowout. Pead carried the ball six times for
20 yards, but it was his seven receptions for 43 yards that would
have made him a surprising contributor in PPR formats. Richardson
is expected to be back in Week 4 but his upside is limited as
Pead may have played himself into some additional snaps. Richardson
touched the ball a total of 40 times through the first two weeks
of the season, but somewhere around 15 touches for him in Week
4 seems likely.
Whether it’s Richardson or Pead, chances are that someone
is going to do something against this astonishingly mediocre 49ers
defense, which has somehow allowed more fantasy points to opposing
running backs than any team this season. We’ve come to expect
that the 49ers will struggle to slow down Marshawn Lynch, as they
did in Week 2, but what we could have never predicted is that
they would look so mismatched against the Indianapolis Colts and
their duo of Ahmad Bradshaw and Trent Richardson in Week 3. It
wasn’t even Richardson that did most of the damage as Bradshaw
himself put up 111 total yards and a touchdown. San Francisco
has now allowed at least one touchdown to an opposing running
back in each of their three games and although the Rams as a team
have not rushed for a touchdown themselves yet in 2013, this seems
like it could be a sneaky time to find a place for Richardson
in your lineup, or even Pead in deep PPR leagues.
Projections:
Sam Bradford: 230 pass yds, 1 TD, 10 rush yds
Daryl Richardson: 60 rush yds, 1 TD, 30 rec yds
Isaiah Pead: 20 rush yds, 40 rec yds
Chris Givens: 60 rec yds, 1 TD
Tavon Austin: 40 rec yds, 1 TD
Austin Pettis: 25 rec yds
Jared Cook: 20 rec yds
Prediction: Rams 20, 49ers 17 ^ Top
Ravens at Bills
- (Thorne)
Passing
Game Thoughts: The fewer passes QB Joe Flacco throws the
better his team tends to do. In the Ravens one loss this season
he accumulated roughly the same passing yardage and attempts as
he did in the two victories. In those two he completed more than
66% of his passes but in the pass-heavy game he completed fewer
than 55% of his throws. Most interestingly, in the two victories
Flacco threw only one touchdown but did so without an interception,
compared to two of each in the loss. The most popular receiver
in Baltimore is by far Torrey Smith, who has recorded 85 or more
yards in each contest but has yet to find the endzone. Over one
third of the yardage gained through the air has come from his
receptions. In most cases Baltimore uses the pass to spread out
the defense and take a shot downfield every so often to take advantage
of Smith’s speed. If they aren’t forced into passing
situations, Flacco throws effectively but against a defense expecting
a pass he struggles to be precise.
In the unlikely event that Baltimore is forced to throw on Sunday
they probably won’t be challenged by the Bills who are average
in most statistical categories. One area in which they are better
than most is in sacks and given the inconsistencies of the Ravens
offensive line, this could be an area to watch. In the most recent
game however, Buffalo was unable to record a single sack, gave
up over 330 yards, and surrendered scoring passing plays of 51
and 69 yards. They do not have a gifted secondary and are still
dealing with injury issues as S Jarius Byrd has yet to play this
season and CB Leodis McKelvin injured his hamstring during the
third game. Coming into Sunday both teams are hoping the Ravens
don’t throw very much; Baltimore because that means the
game is getting out of control, and Buffalo because they most
likely won’t be able to stop the passes that come their
way.
Running Game Thoughts: With respect to yards per carry the Ravens
are the second worst team in the league; in rushing yards gained
they’re only slightly better. Perhaps history has a way
of clouding the current perception of the team, remembering the
Ravens of old imposing their will on the defense as they march
the ball down the field with run after run after run, but this
particular team is first and foremost a defensive machine. Turnovers
and field position have given Baltimore short fields and/or directly
led to points so they’ve been able to hide the fact that
the offense is sometimes stagnant. The leading rusher for the
three games has earned 37, 57, and 65 yards (in order) on the
ground but in each of those games they were also responsible for
a touchdown. The inconsistency again comes back to the O-line
but is compounded by the perception that Flacco isn’t a
serious threat through the air.
RB Ray Rice will likely return to the field against Buffalo and
be greeted by the second worst rushing defense in the NFL in terms
of yards allowed. Teams have found success running against the
Bills, to the average of 155 yards per game. Despite the outrageous
yardage they’ve only given up one rushing touchdown, perhaps
because the strength of the defense is the front seven and in
the redzone they are typically unable to matchup against most
multi-receiver packages. This will be a good week to evaluate
the Ravens rush attack to see if game situation, opponent strength,
or general lack of execution has been to blame for the relative
lack of success. Success on the ground against Buffalo doesn’t
necessarily prove anything but a lack thereof would speak volumes.
Projections:
Joe Flacco: 200 yards passing, 1 TD
Ray Rice: 90 yards rushing, 1 TD / 20 yards receiving
Bernard Pierce: 40 yards rushing / 20 yards receiving
Torrey Smith: 80 yards receiving, 1 TD
Passing
Game Thoughts: Three games into his young career QB EJ
Manuel has led the Bills in three competitive matchups despite
only earning one win; both losses have been by one score or less
and the victory came from a last minute drive and concluded with
a redzone pass for a touchdown. On the year he’s averaged
215 passing yards per game and has turned in a 4-1 TD to interception
ratio while targeting WR Steve Johnson and his two running backs
most frequently. He’s demonstrated good decision-making
and does well to distribute the ball to the best playmakers. The
offensive line has done either very well or extremely poorly protecting
Manuel, giving up only one sack in the first two games but then
allowing eight to the Jets in the most recent contest. Buffalo
isn’t an overly dangerous passing team but they’re
much improved from last year.
After facing their toughest passing challenge so far, Buffalo
must now face a Ravens defense that is equally as difficult. When
they’re not going against Peyton Manning they’re generally
able to force offenses into short throws and trust their pass
rushers to pressure quarterbacks into mistakes. To this point
in the season they’ve only recorded one interception (returned
for a TD) but have recorded 11 sacks. The 2013 defense looks rather
different than the squad that won the Super Bowl last season but
much like last year they’re opportunistic and tend to take
advantage of mistakes made by non-elite quarterbacks. Manuel will
have his work cut out for him but will be given opportunities
to make plays if he can continue to avoid bad throws.
Running Game Thoughts: A rookie QB’s best friend is a solid
running game and Manuel has a friend, a pair of friends actually,
in C.J. Spiller and Fred Jackson. Buffalo is in the top eight
of yards rushing, yards per carry, and total carries but has scored
only one rushing touchdown. In addition, Manuel is a running threat
and his ability to scramble is a weapon that defenses currently
can’t contain. Used sparingly, this will begin to demand
more attention from the defensive gameplan and will improve other
areas of the Bills offense. He averages four rushes for 25 yards
per game, almost exclusively on broken plays or after running
away from pressure. Spiller and Jackson constitute one of the
best backfield duos in the league and Buffalo will continue to
give them the ball until the defense is completely worn down.
The outcome of the game will likely hinge on turnovers and the
success of the running game; to reduce turnover risk the Bills
should shy away from extra passes and lean on Spiller and Jackson
more, thus increasing the significance of the rushing attack.
Unfortunately it is in that area where Baltimore thrives, ranking
fourth best in the league for yards allowed, seventh in the league
for average, and best in the league for rushing touchdowns allowed
with zero. Most recently the Texans gained 94 yards on 23 carries
(4.1 yards per carry average) and had no rush longer than 10 yards.
The Bills should expect to see similar results, as Houston and
Buffalo resemble each other offensively. The most difficult aspect
of the Ravens defense is their ability to disrupt the line of
scrimmage and close running lanes once a play has been diagnosed.
Without an elite offensive line it will be hard to regularly eke
out significant gains but a dedication to the running game should
eventually pay dividends as the game wears on and the defense
tires against the RB tandem.
Projections:
EJ Manuel: 180 yards passing, 1 INT
C.J. Spiller: 50 yards rushing / 30 yards receiving
Fred Jackson: 40 yards rushing / 20 yards receiving
Steve Johnson: 80 yards receiving
Prediction: Ravens 27, Bills 9
Cardinals at Buccaneers
- (Smith)
Passing Game Thoughts: Carson Palmer
has been up-and-down in his short tenure in Arizona. In fantasy
terms, he hasn’t been anywhere near a QB1, throwing only
three touchdowns with four interceptions and ranking just 28th
at his position in fantasy points. His offensive line isn’t
great, but the quality of receivers has led many to believe his
production would be better. Larry Fitzgerald has the only touchdown
catches among receivers and both of those came in Week 1. This
week will be tough for Fitzgerald, Floyd and Roberts, as they
face a Tampa defense that has been stingy allowing fantasy points
to receivers.
The Bucs are 15th in the league against the pass and in fantasy
points allowed to quarterbacks. They’ve given up the fourth-fewest
fantasy points to wide receivers, but the third-most to tight
ends with Jimmy Graham destroying them for 179 yards and a pair
of scores in Week 2.
Running Game Thoughts: Rashard Mendenhall leads Arizona with 40
rushes and 155 yards with one touchdown, but he played fewer snaps
than Andre Ellington last week and is averaging fewer than 4.0
yards per carry. I wouldn’t expect him to be very productive
this week and would only use him as a flex play if I had no other
options.
Though Tampa is 17th in run defense, they are one of just three
teams who have yet to allow a rushing score and have given up
just 3.9 yards per carry. They have allowed the 10th-fewest fantasy
points to running backs so far this year, so they’d be a
tough play even for a good fantasy RB.
Projections:
Carson Palmer: 255 pass yds, 2 TD, 2 INT
Larry Fitzgerald: 85 rec yds, 1 TD
Michael Floyd: 65 rec yds
Robert Housler: 35 rec yds, 1 TD
Andre Roberts: 25 rec yds
Rashard Mendenhall: 40 rush yds, 10 rec yds
Andre Ellington: 25 rush yds, 15 rec yds
Alfonso Smith: 15 rush yds, 10 rec yds
Passing Game Thoughts: Tampa made
a change at the quarterback position, benching the erratic and
underwhelming Josh Freeman for rookie third-round pick Mike Glennon.
Freeman had a miserable completion percentage of 45.7 this season
and was 30th in fantasy points so fantasy owners should not be
losing anything here because he had no business being on rosters
in the first place. The biggest question is how this move affects
Vincent Jackson and Mike Williams and though neither ranks in
the top-25 among wideouts, each has the ability to do so, with
Jackson a potential top-10 receiver. It’s hard to envision
that happening now and fantasy owners should not expect a big
week out of Jackson in particular, as he is nursing a rib injury
and has to face a top corner in Patrick Peterson.
Despite the presence of Peterson, Arizona’s pass defense
has struggled this year. Only six teams have given up more passing
yards than they have and just three teams have sacked the quarterback
fewer times. Due to this seeming ineptitude, the team has allowed
the fourth-most fantasy points to quarterbacks, and though they
are giving up the ninth-fewest points to wideouts, no team in
the NFL has allowed tight ends to gather more fantasy points.
Running Game Thoughts: Doug Martin was almost certainly a top-five
pick in fantasy drafts this season, and though he hasn’t
quite lived up to that status yet, he’s still been good.
Martin is second in the league in rushing, but has just one touchdown
and a measly 19 yards on four receptions which has limited his
production. He’ll likely be depended upon for plenty of
carries this week as the team tries to limit Glennon’s exposure,
but has a tough task against Arizona’s rush defense.
The Cardinals have the league’s number three run defense,
have allowed only a single rushing score and are ceding a mere
3.2 yard per carry, which is fourth in the NFL. Though they’ve
allowed the second-most receiving yards to running backs this
year, they’ve given up the sixth-fewest fantasy points.
Projections:
Mike Glennon: 185 pass yds, 1 TD, 2 INT
Vincent Jackson: 65 rec yds
Mike Williams: 40 rec yds, 1 TD
Kevin Ogletree: 30 rec yds
Eric Page: 15 rec yds
Doug Martin: 70 rush yds, 1 TD, 25 rec yds
Prediction: Cardinals 20, Buccaneers 17
Colts at Jaguars
- (Smith)
Passing Game Thoughts: There are
currently just two quarterbacks in the league with at least 100
rushing yards and two touchdowns, one of which is Michael Vick.
The other? Andrew Luck. That’s the main reason he is 12th
at his position in fantasy points because his passing numbers
are unremarkable. Luck is 26th in the league in passing yards
and has four fewer touchdown throws this season than Peyton Manning
had in Week 1. Those numbers are likely to even out over the course
of the season but for now it’s put a damper on the numbers
of Reggie Wayne, T.Y. Hilton and company. It should be of comfort
to the fantasy owners of those players that the Colts face the
Jaguars this week. In two games against them last year, Wayne
had 184 receiving yards and Hilton had 113 yards and one touchdown.
This season, Jacksonville has a top-10 pass defense in terms of
yards allowed, but are tied for 23rd in touchdown passes given
up and have just a single interception. Still, they’ve ceded
the 11th-most fantasy points in the league to quarterbacks, the
14th-most to tight ends and the 15th-most to wide receivers.
Running Game Thoughts: The Colts
made headlines last week with their trade for Trent Richardson,
who was selected just two spots after Luck in last year’s
draft. But he’s not come close to being the type of player
one would expect to get with the third overall pick, with a career
yards per attempt average of 3.5 and just over 1,000 rushing yards
in 18 games. He ran for only 39 yards last week against the 49ers
with Ahmad Bradshaw piling up 95 yards. The duo will continue
to split carries, and against Jacksonville, that’s a good
thing for fantasy owners of both backs.
No team has allowed more yards on the ground than the Jaguars
this season. They are tied for 23rd in rushing scores given up
and just two teams have surrendered more than the 5.2 yards per
carry they have. As a consequence, the Jags have allowed the seventh-most
fantasy points to running backs on the year.
RB
Ahmad Bradshaw has been ruled out with a neck injury.
Projections:
Andrew
Luck: 265 pass yds, 3 TD, 1 INT, 20 rush yds
Reggie
Wayne: 90 rec yds, 2 TD
T.Y.
Hilton: 70 rec yds
Darrius
Heyward-Bey: 45 rec yds, 1 TD
Coby
Fleener: 15 rec yds
Trent
Richardson: 70 rush yds, 1 TD, 15 rec yds
Ahmad
Bradshaw: 55 rush yds, 20 rec yds
Passing Game Thoughts: Fantasy owners
have to be thrilled that Blaine Gabbert has returned under center
for the Jaguars – those that own the Colts D/ST, anyway.
The inept Gabbert has few options to throw to, though Cecil Shorts
should be a WR2 for fantasy owners. He’s currently 25th
among wide receivers in fantasy points, 10th in the league in
receiving yards, and torched Indy last season for a two-game total
of seven catches, 185 yards and two touchdowns.
The Colts have allowed just a pair of touchdown throws this year,
which is tied for second-fewest allowed in the league, and are
11th in pass defense. They have relinquished the 11th-fewest fantasy
points to opposing signal callers, are in the middle of the league
when it comes to tight ends, but have given up the eighth-fewest
fantasy points to wide receivers.
Running Game Thoughts: It has been
a miserable start to the season for Maurice Jones-Drew, who has
run for a total of 115 yards and is averaging 2.6 yards per carry.
He does have a touchdown, but also just three receptions for 20
yards, and is 32nd at his position in fantasy points. MJD played
only once against the Colts last season, but tore through them
for 177 yards and one score. Its wishful thinking to expect anything
close to that this week, but fantasy owners should expect him
to have his best game of the season, though I realize that’s
not saying too much.
Indianapolis is middle-of-the-road in terms of fantasy points
allowed to running backs, ranking 15th. That’s true despite
them ranking 26th in rush defense, rushing scores relinquished
and yards per carry allowed. The reason for the disparity between
points and yards is two-fold: they’ve allowed the eighth-fewest
receiving yards to running backs and a quarterback (Terrelle Pryor)
beat them up for over 100 yards rushing.
Projections:
Blaine
Gabbert: 175 pass yds, 1 TD, 2 INT
Cecil
Shorts: 75 rec yds, 1 TD
Ace
Sanders: 35 rec yds
Stephen
Burton: 25 rec yds
Marcedes
Lewis: 15 rec yds
Maurice
Jones-Drew: 75 rush yds, 1 TD, 15 rec yds
Prediction: Colts 31, Jaguars 20
Seahawks at Texans
- (Smith)
Passing Game Thoughts: The Seahawks
are a rushing team first and foremost, with the most pertinent
evidence being that Russell Wilson has thrown the fewest passes
of any starter in the league (note: he was pulled from last week’s
game against the Jaguars early because they were blowing them
out). Though he’s tossed six touchdowns with only two picks,
Wilson is 25th in the NFL in passing yards and has only 54 rushing
yards, which is why he’s 16th in fantasy scoring at his
position. His fantasy owners would like to see more production
but without Percy Harvin, the ‘Hawks have no game-changing
wideout, and none in the top-35 in fantasy scoring. I wouldn’t
be putting any Seattle receiver or Wilson in my starting lineup
this week against Houston.
The Texans are second in the league in pass defense, but have
allowed six touchdowns with only one interception and are tied
for 14th in sacks. Still, the lack of yards surrendered has served
them well, as they have allowed the eighth-fewest fantasy points
in the NFL to quarterbacks, 10th-fewest to tight ends and 12th-fewest
to wideouts.
Running Game Thoughts: Marshawn Lynch is seventh among running
backs in fantasy scoring, 11th in rushing yards, but would be
higher if the Seahawks didn’t destroy the Jaguars last week,
prompting Lynch’s early exit. While he is running for just
3.4 yards per carry, I wouldn’t be concerned about that
right now and though the Texans are a tough match-up, Lynch is
an every-week starter regardless of the opponent.
Houston has given up only one rushing score this season, are ninth
in the league against the run and their 3.3 yards per carry allowed
ranks fifth. They are 20th in the league in fantasy points allowed
to running backs though they are one of only nine teams to give
up a receiving score to a back.
Projections:
Russell Wilson: 225 pass yds, 2 TD, 1 INT, 20 rush yds
Golden Tate: 65 rec yds, 1 TD
Sidney Rice: 55 rec yds, 1 TD
Doug Baldwin: 40 rec yds
Zach Miller: 30 rec yds
Luke Willson: 15 rec yds
Marshawn Lynch: 65 rush yds, 1 TD, 10 rec yds
Robert Turbin: 20 rush yds
Christine Michael: 10 rush yds
Passing Game Thoughts: Matt Schaub
is 10th in the NFL in passing yards, but 13th among quarterbacks
in fantasy scoring due in large part to his four interceptions,
which are tied for fourth-most in the league. He had less than
200 passing yards last week in the team’s loss to the Ravens
and did not throw a touchdown. It only gets tougher this week
and with Andre Johnson a game-time decision (as of this writing)
due to his shin injury, the outlook isn’t good for Schaub
against the Seahawks. And while I think DeAndre Hopkins will be
a fantasy contributor all season, I wouldn’t play him this
week except in deep leagues.
With the Seattle secondary widely considered to be the best in
the league it should come as no surprise that their pass defense
is ranked first. They have also given up the fewest pass yards
per attempt, the fewest touchdown throws (one) and allowed the
third-lowest completion percentage. It should also come as no
shock to learn that the ‘Hawks have given up fewer fantasy
points to wideouts than any other team, the second-fewest points
to quarterbacks and third-fewest to tight ends.
Running Game Thoughts: Right about now, those fantasy owners that
selected Arian Foster with a top-three pick in their drafts are
probably regretting it. Though he’s 13th in the NFL in rushing,
Foster has one score, is 20th at his position in fantasy points,
and is averaging 3.9 yards per carry. Meanwhile, his teammate
Ben Tate has only six fewer rushing yards than Foster and is averaging
6.8 yards per carry. Logic would indicate more carries for Tate
in the near future but expectations should be limited this week
against Seattle.
Just two teams have relinquished fewer fantasy points to running
backs than the Seahawks this season. Though they are 12th in the
league in rush defense, tied for 15th in rushing scores allowed
and are 18th in yards per carry ceded, running backs haven’t
done a lot of damage. It’s been quarterbacks, namely Cam
Newton and Colin Kaepernick, who have picked up almost half of
the rushing yards Seattle has allowed.
Projections:
Matt Schaub: 220 pass yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
Andre Johnson: 70 rec yds
DeAndre Hopkins: 55 rec yds
Owen Daniels: 35 rec yds, 1 TD
Keshawn Martin: 20 rec yds
Arian Foster: 55 rush yds, 1 TD, 15 rec yds
Ben Tate: 35 rush yds, 15 rec yds
Prediction: Seahawks 27, Texans 20
Jets at Titans
- (Smith)
Passing Game Thoughts: Despite the
fact rookie Geno Smith has twice the number of interceptions (six)
as touchdown throws (three), he’s 13th in fantasy scoring
because of his 78 rushing yards and one touchdown. I still wouldn’t
be quick to insert him in my fantasy lineup because I don’t
trust his weapons. Santonio Holmes exploded last week for 154
yards and one score, and Stephen Hill is a solid WR3, but inconsistency
from rookie quarterbacks leads to inconsistent fantasy numbers
for both he and his receiving corps and they have a challenge
this week against Tennessee’s surprisingly solid pass defense.
The Titans are 10th in the league in pass defense and are somehow
the only team in the league who has yet to allow a rushing yard
by an opposing quarterback. So it makes sense that they’ve
allowed the 10th-fewest fantasy points to both quarterbacks and
wide receivers, even though they’ve surrendered the ninth-most
points to tight ends.
Running Game Thoughts: With Chris Ivory likely out this week,
the running game belongs to Bilal Powell with a bit of Alex Green
mixed in. Powell is seventh in the league in rushing and 12th
in fantasy points at his position. He had 149 rushing yards last
week against Buffalo and I expect to see a heavy dose of him this
week. Fantasy owners should consider Powell a very solid RB2 against
the Titans.
Tennessee has been just above average against the run this year,
ranking 14th in fantasy points allowed to running backs, 13th
in rush defense, tied for 15th in rushing scores given up, but
23rd with a yards per carry average of 4.4 allowed.
Projections:
Geno Smith: 220 pass yds, 1 TD, 1 INT, 15 rush yds
Santonio Holmes: 70 rec yds
Stephen Hill: 55 rec yds, 1 TD
Jeff Cumberland: 30 rec yds
Jeremy Kerley: 25 rec yds
Kellen Winslow: 15 rec yds
Bilal Powell: 85 rush yds, 1 TD, 15 rec yds
Alex Green: 20 rush yds
Passing Game Thoughts: Jake Locker
had one of his better games as a pro last week against the Chargers,
throwing for 299 yards and one touchdown without an interception.
It was his first game with even 150 passing yards this year and
a forgettable corps of pass catchers is at least one reason why.
Nate Washington and Kendall Wright are the team’s top receivers,
but neither is among the top-40 fantasy scorers at their position
and New York offers a significant roadblock to both Locker and
his receivers.
No team has allowed a lower completion percentage to opposing
quarterbacks than the Jets with signal callers connecting on just
47.3 percent of their throws. They are seventh in pass defense,
have given up the fifth-fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks,
the sixth-fewest to tight ends and rank 15th in points allowed
to wide receivers.
Running Game Thoughts: Fantasy owners know the drill with Chris
Johnson by now as he’s off to another mediocre start. Though
sixth in the league in rushing, Johnson has not found the end
zone this year and is running for only 3.7 yards per carry, leaving
him at 25th in fantasy scoring among his peers. I’m confident
he’ll rise as the season goes on, but his chances for a
big game this week aren’t high against a Jets squad that
has stifled opposing runners.
There is just a single team in the league who is surrendering
fewer than 10 fantasy points per game to running backs –
the Jets. They are sixth against the run, but have allowed only
one score on the ground, given up the second-fewest receiving
yards to running backs and have ceded the third-lowest yards per
carry average in the league at 3.2.
Projections:
Jake Locker: 190 pass yds, 2 TD, 2 INT, 20 rush yds
Nate Washington: 55 rec yds
Kendall Wright: 40 rec yds, 1 TD
Kenny Britt: 30 rec yds
Delanie Walker: 25 rec yds, 1 TD
Justin Hunter: 15 rec yds
Chris Johnson: 65 rush yds, 15 rec yds
Jackie Battle: 20 rush yds
Prediction: Titans 20, Jets 17
Patriots at Falcons
- (Smith)
Passing Game Thoughts: EJ Manuel,
Christian Ponder and Terrelle Pryor. What do these three quarterbacks
have in common? Each has more fantasy points this year than Tom
Brady. In fact, there are 25 quarterbacks who hold that distinction
through the season’s first three weeks. That doesn’t
mean fantasy owners should bench him; it just means Brady has
been without his top weapons. I expect that to change this week
with the return of Rob Gronkowski, which should mean an immediate
increase in Brady’s fantasy numbers as he does not have
to depend as much on rookies Kenbrell Thompkins and Aaron Dobson.
Against Atlanta, that should mean Brady’s best game of the
season.
The Falcons rank 25th in the league against the pass and are tied
for 23rd in touchdown throws given up. This futility in pass defense
has shown up on the fantasy scoreboard as well as the team has
allowed the seventh-most fantasy points to quarterbacks, the fifth-most
to wideouts and the 12th-most to tight ends.
Running Game Thoughts: Stevan Ridley was a first-round selection
in many fantasy drafts, but after a lost fumble in Week 1, he
hasn’t gotten the carries most expected he would. Ridley
has not scored a touchdown and has yet to gain even 50 rushing
yards in a game this year. LeGarrette Blount led the team in carries
last week and I expect the time share between Ridley and Blount
to continue against the Falcons, making neither more than a flex
play against the Falcons.
Despite having allowed the third-most receiving yards in the league
to running backs, Atlanta has relinquished the 11th-fewest fantasy
points to players at the position. They’ve allowed one rushing
touchdown, are fifth in rush defense and 11th with a yards per
carry average allowed of 3.8.
Projections:
Tom Brady: 260 pass yds, 3 TD, 1 INT
Rob Gronkowski: 90 rec yds, 2 TD
Julian Edelman: 75 rec yds, 1 TD
Kenbrell Thompkins: 40 rec yds
Aaron Dobson: 25 rec yds
Stevan Ridley: 55 rush yds
LeGarrette Blount: 45 rush yds
Brandon Bolden: 15 rush yds, 20 rec yds
Passing Game Thoughts: Matt Ryan
has been solid this season, ranking seventh in the league in passing
yards and ninth in fantasy scoring among quarterbacks but the
expectations for him were higher. His numbers have clearly been
stifled in part due to the ankle injury suffered by Roddy White,
which has limited the wideout to only seven catches for 56 yards
on the year. Still, Ryan does have Julio Jones and Tony Gonzalez
to throw to with Jones leading the NFL in receiving yards and
leading wide receivers in fantasy points. Even with New England
having shut down opposing passing games this season, both are
must-starts for fantasy owners.
The Patriots are sixth in the NFL against the pass and are top-five
in completion percentage, yards per attempt, passer rating and
touchdown throws allowed. Their stout defense has made fantasy
points hard to come by as they are holding quarterbacks to the
third-fewest total in the league, wideouts to the sixth-fewest
while no team has allowed fewer fantasy points to tight ends.
Running Game Thoughts: With Steven Jackson out a while longer,
the running game has been put into the hands of Jacquizz Rodgers
and Jason Snelling. While not at the level of Jackson, both are
capable backs and Rodgers, in particular, has fantasy worthiness.
He ran for 86 yards last week against the Dolphins and should
be in fantasy lineups this week against the Patriots as a RB2
or flex play at the very least.
New England has allowed just a single rushing score, but they
are 19th in yards per carry average ceded and rank 24th in rush
defense. They are currently 17th in fantasy points allowed to
running backs and even without Jackson, there should be room for
Rodgers and/or Snelling.
Projections:
Matt Ryan: 275 pass yds, 3 TD, 1 INT
Julio Jones: 110 rec yds, 2 TD
Tony Gonzalez: 65 rec yds, 1 TD
Roddy White: 30 rec yds
Harry Douglas: 25 rec yds
Jacquizz Rodgers: 75 rush yds, 1 TD, 20 rec yds
Jason Snelling: 30 rush yds, 15 rec yds
Prediction: Falcons 28, Patriots 24
Dolphins at Saints
- (Smith)
Passing Game Thoughts: While Ryan
Tannehill has been solid, his numbers don’t amount to a
starting fantasy quarterback, as he ranks only 24th in fantasy
scoring at his position. Mike Wallace has had one good game, but
the team’s best wideout has been Brian Hartline, who is
13th in fantasy scoring among wide receivers and should be a fantasy
starter this week against New Orleans. The Saints who have been
much improved defensively over last year, though I want to see
more before declaring them a tough fantasy match-up.
The Saints’ defense has seemingly improved drastically from
last season with a pass defense that currently ranks fourth in
the NFL. It shows up in fantasy as well as they are allowing the
fourth-fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks, and seventh-fewest
to both wide receivers and tight ends.
Running Game Thoughts: Lamar Miller has been a disappointment
for fantasy owners this season, ranking 30th in fantasy points
among running backs, which is one spot behind teammate Daniel
Thomas. Over the course of the season I think Miller will become
the lead back, but the investment fantasy owners likely made in
Miller has yet to pay off. Will that change this week? The opportunity
should be there against a Saints defense that has been gashed
at times by opposing backs.
New Orleans hasn’t completely transformed their defense.
After all, they still rank 20th in the league against the run
and are allowing 5.3 yards per carry – the second-worst
mark in the NFL. Yet they are a truly mediocre 16th in fantasy
points allowed to running backs, mostly because they’ve
given up just one rushing score on the year.
Projections:
Ryan Tannehill: 230 pass yds, 2 TD, 2 INT, 25 rush yds
Brian Hartline: 80 rec yds, 1 TD
Mike Wallace: 55 rec yds, 1 TD
Brandon Gibson: 40 rec yds
Charles Clay: 30 rec yds
Lamar Miller: 55 rush yds, 1 TD, 15 rec yds
Daniel Thomas: 35 rush yds
Passing Game Thoughts: Drew Brees
has only six touchdowns with four interceptions, but he’s
still third in the NFL in passing yards and fourth in fantasy
points, and I expect his touchdown throws to rise in a hurry.
Right now, his only fantasy-worthy weapons are Jimmy Graham and
Marques Colston, with every other Saints pass catcher coming up
short. Graham is the top fantasy tight end and there is little
evidence he can stopped, and has a fabulous match-up this week.
The Dolphins are 20th in the NFL against the pass, but are 16th
in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks, and are one of eight
teams to have more interceptions of QBs than touchdowns throws
allowed to them. They have dominated wideouts as well, having
given up the third-fewest fantasy points to them, but just three
teams have allowed more fantasy points to tight ends.
Running Game Thoughts: Mark Ingram should not be on fantasy rosters
at this point as he’s run for an embarrassing 1.8 yards
per carry. He didn’t play last week due to a toe injury
and may not suit up this week. If Ingram does not play against
the Dolphins, then Khiry Robinson will take his place, though
neither should be considered fantasy options at this point. Pierre
Thomas has been okay but the only fantasy option among Saints
backs is Darren Sproles and he does most of his damage as a receiver
and will continue to do so against the Dolphins.
Miami has surrendered the 12th-most fantasy points in the NFL
to running backs and though they’ve allowed just one score
on the ground, they did allow a touchdown catch to a back, are
19th in rush defense and 27th in yards per carry ceded.
Projections:
Drew Brees: 335 pass yds, 4 TD, 1 INT
Jimmy Graham: 105 rec yds, 2 TD
Marques Colston: 70 rec yds, 1 TD
Lance Moore: 45 rec yds
Robert Meachem: 30 rec yds, 1 TD
Kenny Stills: 15 rec yds
Pierre Thomas: 35 rush yds, 15 rec yds
Darren Sproles: 25 rush yds, 45 rec yds
Mark Ingram: 20 rush yds
Prediction: Saints 31, Dolphins 21
Giants @ Chiefs
- (Caron)
Passing Game Thoughts: The complete
offensive collapse of the New York Giants was on display in Week
3 when the team failed to score a single point, falling to the
Carolina Panthers by a final score of 38-0. This is an astonishingly
bad drop-off from the 54 points that the team averaged through
their first two games of the year. While the Panthers played well,
much of the blame has to be placed on Giants quarterback Eli Manning
who performed like an inexperienced rookie, completing just 12
of his 23 passes for 119 yards, no touchdowns and an interception.
Fantasy owners of every player in the Giants offense were disgusted,
but those who had Hakeem Nicks on their roster were particularly
offended by the single pass attempt that went their receiver’s
way. Nicks himself was frustrated and made it known in the media
by calling out the coaching staff and his quarterback in a single
sentence, “I can’t throw it to myself.”
Victor Cruz remains the most important contributor in the Giants
passing game but will likely also draw the attention of Brandon
Flowers. While Flowers struggled against Dez Bryant, Cruz is the
kind of receiver that Flowers typically shines against, which
could mean a tough week for the Giants top target. With Nicks
speaking out publicly about being underutilized, it’d be
wise to expect a significant increase in targets going his way
this week against Kansas City. Rueben Randle was one of the hottest
preseason fantasy “sleepers” and started the season
nicely with a 100-yard game against the Cowboys, but has since
fallen to just 54 yards in Weeks 2 and 3 combined. He is a WR4
in most leagues, at least until the Giants prove that their offense
is back. Tight end Brandon Myers is a particularly weak play this
week, given the offensive line struggles the Giants have been
dealing with with. He will likely be asked to pass protect more
often than usual, which could lead to a dip in his already mediocre
fantasy numbers. The Chiefs have allowed just 100 total yards
to opposing tight ends this season and that includes the Cowboys’
Jason Witten in Week 2.
Running Game Thoughts: An ugly start to the season for Giants
running back David Wilson continued on Sunday as the former first
round NFL draft pick rushed for just 39 yards during the loss
to the Panthers. Although that number is awful, it’s actually
a step up from where he was in Weeks 1 and 2 when he rushed for
just a combined 36 yards on 14 carries. Wilson appears to still
be in the doghouse, but the complete lack of talent competing
with him for snaps makes it an easy decision for the Giants to
give him the majority of the touches. Still, it is worth noting
that backup Da'Rel Scott played 40 percent of the snaps on Sunday,
to Wilson’s 48 percent. Third string back Brandon Jacobs
had some hype coming into the game after his Week 2 touchdown.
Jacobs is only fantasy consideration in touchdown-only leagues
and Scott is the primary handcuff to Wilson should he be injured
or come down with a case of the fumbles again.
Wilson himself needs to start performing better himself before
any of the Giants backs is worth more than a FLEX option, especially
in Week 4 when they go up against a Kansas City Chiefs defense
that has allowed just one touchdown to an opposing running back
all season and an average of just 86 rushing yards (from running
backs) against them. That number would be even more daunting if
not for a big performance by LeSean McCoy a week ago, who rushed
for 158 yards in the Eagles’ loss to Kansas City. Don’t
get too caught up in that, however, as the Giants and Eagles offenses
are operating on completely different wavelengths at the moment.
The worry of Eli Manning pulling the ball down and running for
a 60-yard touchdown just isn’t there to give the Giants
running backs that extra space. David Wilson does have the physical
talent to have a big game, he simply is not getting the opportunity
to do so at the moment. If you have to pick a Giants runner to
have in your lineup, he is the guy...but that doesn’t mean
he’s a great option.
Projections:
Eli Manning: 230 pass yds, 2 TD, 1 INT
David Wilson: 50 rush yds, 10 rec yds
Victor Cruz: 50 rec yds, 1 TD
Hakeem Nicks: 60 rec yds, 1 TD
Rueben Randle: 40 rec yds
Brandon Myers: 30 rec yds
Passing
Game Thoughts: It’s not often going to be a huge
game, but Alex Smith has done exactly what many analysts said
he would do when they predicted that his efficiency would smoothly
translate from the San Francisco offense to the Kansas City offense.
His fantasy numbers haven’t been great but when players
like Colin Kaepernick and Robert Griffin III have performed as
poorly as they have, sometimes the asset of simply having a quarterback
who won’t kill you goes under-appreciated. Smith has still
not turned the ball over this season and although he failed to
throw a touchdown pass in Week 3 against Philadelphia, he still
threw for a season-high 273 yards and added 32 yards to his surprisingly
solid rushing totals. It might surprise some to know that Smith
is currently fourth in the league in rushing yards among quarterbacks,
putting him ahead of the likes of Andrew Luck, Cam Newton, Geno
Smith, Robert Griffin III and Russell Wilson. Although we can’t
expect him to run for 30+ yards every week, the ability to run
the ball does add to his fantasy prospects.
In Week 4, Smith will be up against a New York Giants defense
that has been dreadful against opposing quarterbacks thus far
in 2013. They’ve allowed multiple touchdowns to every quarterback
they’ve faced for a total of seven, and have forced just
two interceptions to go with those numbers. They’ve also
allowed a total of 46 receptions to opposing wide receivers already
in 2013, including three touchdowns to the Panthers’ less-than-stellar
group a week ago. This has to be a welcomed opportunity for the
Chiefs’ receivers, particularly Dwayne Bowe who has just
nine receptions on the year. Smith and Bowe have simply been unable
to get on the same page, especially down the field, and it has
certainly hurt the star receiver’s numbers. His only score
of the season came on a red zone pass over the middle past blown
coverage against the Cowboys. Surprisingly, it might be Donnie
Avery who has become Smith’s most trusted receiving option,
especially after his seven catch, 141-yard performance in Week
3. Both Bowe and Avery are low-end WR3 options because we simply
don’t know yet what we’re going to get out of them.
Smith himself, however, could find himself as a low-end QB1 option
this week, particularly for those who have bye weeks to contend
with.
Running Game Thoughts: Jamaal Charles has continued to prove
that 2012 wasn’t a fluke as he ran for 92 more yards and
a score in the Chiefs’ Week 3 win over the Eagles. Charles’
utilization in the passing game has made him one of the premier
players in all of fantasy football through the early part of the
season as he has already caught 18 balls for 151 yards and a score
this season. His 18 receptions are tied with Chicago’s Matt
Forte for the most among running backs. Charles has been a monster
even in non-PPR formats, though, as he has already carried the
ball 52 times for 224 yards and two touchdowns. His status as
an every-week RB1 is unquestioned at this point and as long as
the Chiefs keep winning, he should see plenty of opportunities
to tally up huge fantasy numbers.
Charles will be searching for his first 100-yard rushing performance
of the season when he goes up against a New York Giants defense
that has allowed an average of 112 rushing yards against them
per game so far this season. The Giants also struggled to slow
down opposing running backs in the passing game in Weeks 1 and
2, allowing a total of 14 receptions to the Cowboys and Broncos’
backs, which could mean even more utilization for Charles in the
passing game. This lack of ability to stop opposing running backs
is a bit surprising considering the Giants allowed just six rushing
touchdowns against them in 2012. Then again, this is a new season
and the Giants have a whole new list of problems, largely centered
around their own offense’s inability to move the ball, which
has put the defense in some tough situations. Kansas City is very
efficient and doesn’t turn the ball over, so the Giants
defense could be in for a long day again, this time as they try
to stop Jamaal Charles.
Projections:
Alex Smith: 200 pass yds, 2 TD, 35 rush yds
Jamaal Charles: 100 rush yds, 1 TD, 50 rec yds, 1 TD
Dwayne Bowe: 50 rec yds
Donnie Avery: 60 rec yds, 1 TD
Prediction: Chiefs 23, Giants 17
Redskins @ Raiders
- (Caron)
Passing Game Thoughts: Despite his
on-field play not exactly matching the statistics, Robert Griffin
III has actually been fairly consistent in terms of final output.
He’s thrown for between 300-329 yards each week, but he
has also thrown at least one interception in every game. His “garbage
time” production in Weeks 1 and 2 allowed him to throw for
five touchdowns, but when the Redskins were actually competitive
for an entire game as they were in Week 3 against the Lions, Griffin
was not involved enough for his fantasy owners. Griffin failed
to throw a touchdown pass and although he ran for his highest
total of the 2013 season, it was just 37 yards. By contrast, Griffin
only failed to reach 37 yards five times in his entire rookie
regular season of 2012. The rumors of Griffin not being utilized
in the running game as much this season might be true, and that’s
not a good thing for fantasy owners as their quarterback’s
passing skills alone simply aren’t polished enough to make
him a high-end QB1 at this point.
An opportunity has arrived for Griffin and the Redskins to finally
get in the win column as they head to Oakland in Week 4. The Raiders
have performed very poorly against the pass so far in 2013 and
that was to be expected as many analysts agreed during the preseason
that the Raiders’ secondary was among the very worst in
the league. The Raiders have allowed a total of seven touchdowns
to opposing quarterbacks this season. The only time that they
slowed down an opposing passing game was when they were up against
the anemic Jaguars. The player to look out for most for a big
game in the Redskins passing game is Pierre Garcon who has been
excellent so far this season, catching at least seven passes in
all three games. He is a big play target who has also developed
into a very productive possession receiver for Griffin and the
Redskins. The Raiders have allowed more receptions (55) to opposing
wide receivers than any team in the league this season, so Garcon
could be in for another nice day.
Running Game Thoughts: When a team goes 0-3 to start the season,
it can often times be difficult for a running back to stay fantasy
relevant. For Alfred Morris, however, that has not been the case.
Despite poor performances by his team, Morris has already ran
for 225 yards and two touchdowns in his first three games. He
hasn’t had the huge game that made him such a great fantasy
contributor in his rookie season of 2012, but what’s great
is that he has been productive with the opportunities he has been
given, even though the Redskins were blown out in their first
two games. The unfortunate part of Morris’ game is that
he still remains one of the least productive receivers out of
the backfield among the top-tier fantasy running backs. He has
just three catches on the year and just simply is not involved
in that area, which substantially limits his value in PPR leagues.
On the positive end, has to expect that Robert Griffin will eventually
get his legs back and be a bit more of a threat to opposing defenses,
which could open things up for Morris, so better things may still
be to come.
When you consider how poorly the Raiders have performed this
season, it might be somewhat surprising to hear that Oakland has
actually been very good against the run so far in 2013. They’ve
allowed the sixth-fewest fantasy points to opposing running backs
this season, having held the Jaguars and Colts running backs to
just a combined 10 points in their first two games. Although they
were beaten up by the Broncos a week ago, to the tune of 166 total
yards and a touchdown, it’s hard to be too down on the run
defense. The Raiders fell behind early and were unable to keep
up with Peyton Manning and the Broncos’ offense, so Denver
ended up running the ball a ton in the second half. The Redskins
offense certainly can move the ball, but they have not shown the
explosive ability that would indicate them getting far ahead in
any game, therefore we can’t expect them to run the ball
32 times as the Broncos did.
Projections:
Robert Griffin III: 215 pass yds, 2 TD, 1 INT, 25 rush yds
Alfred Morris: 85 rush yds, 1 TD, 5 rec yds
Pierre Garcon: 90 rec yds, 1 TD
Santana Moss: 60 rec yds, 1 TD
Leonard Hankerson: 40 rec yds
Passing
Game Thoughts: Many expected the Oakland Raiders to have
one of the worst offenses in the league, and they haven’t
been great, but quarterback Terrelle Pryor has certainly had his
moments for fantasy owners. Pryor had double digit fantasy points
(standard scoring) in each of his first three games this season,
including leading all quarterbacks with 198 yards rushing through
the first three games of the season. Unfortunately that likely
won’t matter this weekend as a concussion is expected to
keep Pryor out, leading the way for Matt Flynn to get his first
start since the 2011 game, as a member of the Packers, that made
him a big ticket NFL free agent prior to the 2012 season. Flynn
has since lost two training camp battles to Pryor and Russell
Wilson, but will have a chance to prove the coaches wrong. Flynn
himself is not likely to be much of a fantasy option, but the
big question will be whether or not receiver Denarius Moore can
pick up where he left off in Week 3, when he caught six passes
for 124 yards and a score. Moore has been a great fantasy option
in two of his three games this season, but the problem is that
his Week 2 performance against a bad Jacksonville team, when he
failed to catch a single pass, makes him a risky play from week
to week.
We’ll get our first glimpse of Moore and Flynn working
together as they are up against a Redskins secondary that has
been nothing short of awful against opposing passing games so
far this season. They’ve allowed a league-worst nine total
touchdowns to opposing quarterbacks and are only five yards away
from allowing the most passing yards against them this season.
While it’s true that they’ve been up against three
high-octane offenses in Green Bay, Philadelphia and Detroit, it
is certainly something to be positive about if you are a fantasy
owner who is relying on a member of this Oakland Raiders passing
game.
Running Game Thoughts: An otherwise dreadful performance for
running back Darren McFadden in which he ran for just nine yards
and didn’t catch a single pass was saved by two touchdowns—including
a touchdown pass—against the Broncos. It’s hard to
expect much out of a running back when his team falls so far behind
in the first half, but McFadden’s less than 1.0 yards per
carry on 12 attempts were humiliatingly bad. McFadden’s
entire career has been a Dr. Jeckyl / Mr. Hyde story, but fantasy
owners were at least able to salvage the day with the two touchdowns.
McFadden owners should be thankful, however, that neither Marcel
Reece nor Rashad Jennings has broken significantly into his carry
totals. Despite his up-and-down performances, McFadden is still
“the guy.”
McFadden does have a great matchup this week as he goes up against
a Redskins defense that has been almost as bad against opposing
running backs as they have opposing passing games. Washington
has allowed an average of 138 rushing yards to opposing teams’
running backs this season and a touchdown in every game. Sadly,
that number includes a performance in Week 2 when they allowed
the Packers to snap their string of 44 games without a 100 yard
rusher when James Starks did it. With Matt Flynn making his first
start as a member of the Raiders, we have to expect that the Raiders
will lean heavily on McFadden and the running game. If the game
stays close, look for McFadden to approach 25 touches in Week
4, which should make him a solid RB2 with RB1 upside.
Projections:
Matt Flynn: 200 pass yds, 2 TD, 2 INT, 10 rush yds
Darren McFadden: 85 rush yds, 1 TD, 40 rec yds
Denarius Moore: 70 rec yds, 1 TD
Rod Streater: 45 rec yds, 1 TD
Prediction: Redskins 27, Raiders 24
Eagles @ Broncos
- (Caron)
Passing Game Thoughts: Two of the
league’s most exciting offenses will be on display in this
one, with Michael Vick leading his Eagles to Denver. Vick, who
at one point during the preseason was not even believed to be
the lead arm in the race for the Eagles’ quarterback job,
has made fantasy owners remember that he is a very capable QB.
Vick is currently the No. 2 fantasy quarterback in standard scoring
fantasy leagues and is also second among all quarterbacks in rushing
yards. His passing can still be inconsistent at times, but his
rushing makes him a must-start for most fantasy owners right now.
Wide receiver DeSean Jackson was held mostly in check last week
by Brandon Flowers and the Chiefs and had just 62 yards without
a touchdown, but his overall numbers this season have been very
impressive. He is second in the league in receiving yards going
into Week 4 and could very easily have been the runaway top receiver
in the league if Vick hadn’t narrowly missed him on a couple
deep passes.
Jackson could have a tougher time this week, however, as he
goes up against a stacked group of Denver cornerbacks that could
have future Hall of Famer Champ Bailey back for the first time
this season. Cornerbacks Chris Harris and Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie
have played well, but having Bailey back will be a welcome addition
to a defense that has been thin at cornerback so far this season.
Denver’s defensive statistics are a little skewed due to
the fact that opposing teams have been forced to throw against
them a lot this season after falling behind in the first half
of games, but they are beatable. Opposing receivers have gone
over 200 total yards in every game this season and although they’ve
only allowed two touchdowns to the position, the Broncos are susceptible
to “garbage time” points, meaning that Jackson needs
to be in all lineups and Jason Avant may even be an interesting
bye week fill-in.
Running Game Thoughts: When 1200+ total yards and five touchdowns
in just 12 games is considered a “down” year, you
know that a player is superbly talented. That’s just what
LeSean McCoy had in 2012 and what had somehow knocked him down
fantasy boards into being a late-first or early-second round fantasy
selection in most leagues. McCoy is already off to a great start
to proving the doubters wrong, however, as he is currently the
NFL’s leading rusher by nearly 100 yards. McCoy’s
132 rushing yards per game are a staggering number, but what’s
even crazier is that he is yet to have a game this season where
he hasn’t gone over 150 total rushing and receiving yards.
McCoy is currently on pace for 2,741 total yards—a number
that would completely shatter the NFL record for total yards by
a running back in a season.
There is not a hotter back in the league and McCoy is an absolute
must-start even against a Denver defense that held the Raiders
to just nine yards rushing a week ago. Philadelphia’s running
game has been as effective as many NFL passing games, so even
if they fall behind, McCoy should stay involved in the offense,
whether it be as a runner or a receiver. Although they have allowed
a running back to score against them in each game this season,
Denver has allowed just 90 total yards rushing this season, largely
due to the big leads their offense has given them. It will be
very interesting to see the league’s most productive runner
go up against the team that has allowed the fewest rushing yards.
Projections:
Michael Vick: 260 pass yds, 1 TD, 2 INT, 45 rush yds
LeSean McCoy: 80 rush yds, 2 TD, 30 rec yds
DeSean Jackson: 90 rec yds, 1 TD
Jason Avant: 60 rec yds
Brent Celek: 30 rec yds
Passing
Game Thoughts: What more can be said about the Denver Broncos
passing game so far this season than that it has been positively
spectacular? Peyton Manning is the easy, runaway choice for NFL
MVP at the moment and he’s leading the way as the best fantasy
quarterback as well. With 12 touchdowns, Manning already has four
more than any other quarterback in the league, but more importantly
he is yet to throw a single interception this year. Some thought
that there wouldn’t be enough footballs to go around for
all three of the team’s top receivers to get involved, but
Eric Decker’s 220 yards over the past two weeks has proven
that not only are Wes Welker and Demaryius Thomas still performing
well, but that Decker himself is still a big part of this offense.
But even more surprising than the production of the Broncos’
trio of receivers has been the breakout season of tight end Julius
Thomas who caught his fourth touchdown reception of the season
a week ago against the Raiders. Thomas is currently the No. 3
fantasy tight end in standard scoring formats and should be in
all fantasy lineups at the moment.
Running Game Thoughts: We still don’t exactly have a grasp
of what the Broncos are doing with their running backs, but what
we do know is that the team has embraced the idea of using the
running game to put games away. Despite the preseason battle for
the starting gig between Ronnie Hillman and Montee Ball, it has
been veteran running back Knowshon Moreno that has been the team’s
leading rusher through the first three games of the season with
160 yards and two scores in three games. Moreno is the team’s
best pass protecting running back, has shown that he might be
the best pass catcher at the position and he may very well also
be the best runner. Unfortunately, the Broncos have been out front
in every one of their games so far, so we haven’t had much
of an opportunity to see what they’re going to do in regards
to running back touches in games that are actually close. What
was telling, however, is that Moreno was used most prominently
in the first half of last week’s big win over the Raiders
before conceding to Ball and Hillman in the second half.
Whoever touches the ball out of the Broncos backfield should
have a fairly decent chance for a production against an Eagles
defense that has allowed 365 total yards of offense to opposing
running backs over their past two games. They were abused by Jamaal
Charles a week ago, who had 172 of offense himself and they could
be in for another tough day against this three-headed-backfield
in Denver. Until we see otherwise, we have to believe that Moreno
will be the most-utilized runner for Denver, but Ball has seen
an uptick in carries, including a few near the goal line, so try
to keep your expectations in check for Moreno this week. He is
a low-end RB2 but would be best utilized in the FLEX.
Projections:
Peyton Manning: 310 pass yds, 3 TD
Knowshon Moreno: 70 rush yds, 1 TD, 25 rec yds
Montee Ball: 40 rush yds, 10 rec yds
Ronnie Hillman: 10 rush yds, 15 rec yds
Demaryius Thomas: 90 rec yds, 1 TD
Wes Welker: 70 rec yds
Eric Decker: 50 rec yds, 1 TD
Julius Thomas: 40 rec yds, 1 TD
Prediction: Broncos 34, Eagles 21
Cowboys @ Chargers
- (Caron)
Passing Game Thoughts: After a frustrating
Week 2 loss in Kansas City, the Cowboys got back into the win
column in Week 3 when they had their most dominating win in quite
some time, defeating the St. Louis Rams by a final score of 31-7.
Quarterback Tony Romo did not put up spectacular fantasy numbers,
but did have his first three-touchdown performance of the season
in the win, increasing his TD/INT ratio to six touchdowns and
only one interception thus far in 2013. Romo’s top target,
Dez Bryant, scored for the second straight week despite battling
foot problems, but it is encouraging to consider that Week 3 was
the first time all season that he played all 100 percent of the
Cowboys’ offensive snaps. One player who has not performed
well this season despite offseason hype is Bryant’s partner
in crime, Miles Austin, who suffered yet another hamstring injury
in the win over St. Louis. Austin has just 125 yards receiving
on the year and hasn’t practiced this week as of Thursday.
He may suit up to play on Sunday, but will likely be limited,
leading the way for backups Dwayne Harris and Terrance Williams
to compete for playing time. Neither Williams nor Harris is a
real option for fantasy owners at the moment, but they could be
players to keep your eyes on if they perform well and Austin’s
injury continues to linger as it has in the past.
Dallas will have an exceptional matchup in the passing game
this week as they head to San Diego to challenge a San Diego Chargers
defense that has allowed more passing yards to opposing QB’s
than any other team in the league this season. Opposing quarterbacks
are completing over 67 percent of their throws and averaging nearly
360 yards passing per game against this defense. In addition,
the Chargers have forced just one interception in their first
three games. Even with Bryant at less than 100 percent and Austin
possibly out of the game, Romo is a solid QB1 this week with the
potential to have a monster performance if this becomes a shootout.
Bryant and Witten are also must-starts against this atrocious
secondary, even if they have not quite lived up to expectations
yet.
Running Game Thoughts: It’s been said many times before,
but DeMarco Murray reminded us last week why he is still a threat
to nearly single handedly carry fantasy teams—and his Cowboys—to
victory. Murray ripped off 175 rushing yards, added 28 receiving
yards and ran for his first touchdown of the season in the Cowboys’
victory this past week. Murray’s inconsistent play can be
frustrating at times, but his usage in the passing game has made
him a serviceable fantasy back in every game this season. He already
has 16 receptions, which ties him with PPR machine Darren Sproles
for fourth-most among running backs, and despite his injury history,
Murray has seen the field on more plays (173) than any other running
back in the league heading into Week 4. Clearly the Cowboys have
not scaled back the workload for their top runner and although
that may spell problems for him down the road, fantasy owners
would be wise to make use of Murray’s increased usage early
in the season.
A week after shredding the Rams for over 200 total yards, fantasy
owners of DeMarco Murray will have their fingers crossed for another
big game as he goes up against a San Diego Chargers defense that
has conceded an average of 145 total yards to opposing running
backs through their first three games. The one thing that has
kept the unit from looking completely inept from a fantasy standpoint
is that they have somehow been able to make tackles before the
running backs get into the end zone as they have not allowed a
single touchdown to an opposing running back this season. Still,
Murray’s yardage alone makes him an obvious starter as a
RB2 and even a low-end RB1 in PPR formats.
Projections:
Tony Romo: 335 pass yds, 3 TD
DeMarco Murray: 70 rush yds, 40 rec yds
Dez Bryant: 110 rec yds, 2 TD
Miles Austin: 30 rec yds
Dwayne Harris: 30 rec yds, 1 TD
Terrance Williams: 25 rec yds
Jason Witten: 60 rec yds
Passing
Game Thoughts: Having thrown seven touchdown passes through
his first two games this season, expectations were high for Philip
Rivers as he and the Chargers traveled to Tennessee. Wide receiver
Eddie Royal had seen a career resurgence during that timeframe,
as well, having caught five of those seven touchdowns, and he
appeared to be finally settling in after a disappointing few years.
The Chargers passing game came back to reality, however, as Rivers
threw for just 184 yards for one touchdown despite completing
20 of his 24 passes, in a close loss to the Titans. Royal also
struggled to find space as he caught only two passes for 34 yards.
The bland performances from Rivers and Royal were perhaps overshadowed
by the first touchdown of the season for Antonio Gates, who caught
five balls for 55 yards and the score after an excellent Week
2 performance where he made eight catches for 124 yards. Gates
had been nearly forgotten by fantasy owners after a subpar 2012
season, but appears to be healthy and may be re-establishing himself
as Rivers’ favorite target in the passing game.
Gates does have an interesting matchup in Week 4 as the Dallas
Cowboys have struggled to contain opposing tight ends thus far
in 2013. Only one team (Arizona) has allowed more receptions to
the position thus far in 2013 and it’s not as if the Cowboys
have been up against elite tight ends. Eddie Royal has become
about as big of a question mark as anyone in the league right
now. Although he has caught 75 percent of the passes thrown his
way, Royal was targeted only twice in Week 3 and somehow only
saw the field for 54 percent of the Chargers’ offensive
plays. In fact, it was receivers Vincent Brown and Keenan Allen—who
caught just three total passes between them—who were on
the field for 93 and 83 percent of the snaps. Without much talent
out wide, the Chargers passing game is a bit of a mystery, but
Philip Rivers does have an interesting matchup here, as the Cowboys
have allowed the sixth-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks
this season. This includes a gigantic 450-yard, four touchdown
performance for Eli Manning back in Week 1. Although his 2013
statistics don’t exactly show it, Rivers has turned the
ball over quite a bit over the past few seasons and with DeMarcus
Ware applying pressure and the Cowboys’ corners finally
getting healthy, there could be a few turnovers forced in this
one. Still, Rivers is an intriguing option because this game could
very well turn into a shootout and the Chargers’ rushing
attack simply isn’t productive enough to keep them in the
game.
Running Game Thoughts: As if there weren’t enough question
marks in the San Diego offense with the passing game alone, now
the running back situation seems to be getting increasingly competitive.
Although he has been on the field for just 34 percent of his team’s
snaps this season, running back Ryan Mathews has somehow taken
over three times as many carries as either Danny Woodhead or Ronnie
Brown. That would seem to make him the obvious fantasy back to
own, right? Not so fast. Brown, who carried the ball just five
times for six yards during the Chargers’ loss to the Titans
in Week 3, was the recipient of the team’s lone rushing
touchdown of the season. Meanwhile Woodhead, who has actually
been on the field more than either Mathews or Brown, has emerged
as one of the league’s premier pass-catching options out
of the backfield. His 17 receptions are third among all running
backs and have made him a somewhat surprisingly good FLEX option
in PPR formats. Although he has just 12 fantasy points in standard
scoring formats, Woodhead suddenly jolts ahead of Mathews in total
points for PPR formats. All three of these backs can have value
depending on the scoring format of your league, but Mathews and
Woodhead clearly stand above Brown, at least for the time being,
as viable FLEX options in most formats.
Having allowed the second-fewest amount of rushing yards in
the league and zero rushing touchdowns so far this season, the
Cowboys are a tough matchup for any runner. They do, however,
provide an interesting test for Danny Woodhead. Dallas has actually
allowed more yards receiving (148 and a touchdown) to opposing
running backs than they have allowed rushing (133 yards). The
damage hasn’t all been done in one week, either, as the
Cowboys have allowed between 48-51 receiving yards to opposing
backs in each of their first three games. One has to believe that
the Chargers are well aware of the Cowboys’ inability to
slow down the pass to the running back, so Woodhead could see
an even higher number of snaps, and subsequently targets, than
he normally does.
Projections:
Philip Rivers: 290 pass yds, 2 TD, 2 INT
Ryan Mathews: 40 rush yds, 20 rec yds
Danny Woodhead: 15 rush yds, 60 rec yds
Ronnie Brown: 15 rush yds, 25 rec yds
Eddie Royal: 60 rec yds, 1 TD
Vincent Brown: 30 rec yds
Antonio Gates: 50 rec yds, 1 TD
Prediction: Cowboys 30, Chargers 23
Bengals @ Browns
- (Anderson)
Passing Game Thoughts: The Bengals
passing game is kind of like your favorite old jeans. They are
comfortable, consistent, reliable and used a lot, yet they don’t
look that great and certainly don’t over-impress anyone.
Andy Dalton and the Bengals consistently put up between 225 and
275 yards and a touchdown or three through the air yet never seem
to be in that upper-echelon of passing units that pass for more
than 300 yards and three touchdowns. This is partly because they
have a defense that keeps them in all games and partly because
Dalton and the Bengals' secondary receivers are very average.
Outside of Green there are still no reliable options, as both
Gresham's and Eifert’s split playing time hurt each other,
and wide receiver Mohamed Sanu is nothing more than a limited
possession receiver. In elite matchups Dalton could probably be
trusted as a low-end QB1 or high-end QB2, but most of the time
he's an average QB2. This week, the Bengals travel to Cleveland,
whose defense continues to be underappreciated but is quietly
one of the better all-around units in the NFL. The Browns are
third in sacks, have an elite cover corner in Joe Haden, and have
not allowed a pass play of more than 37 yards this season (3rd
best in the NFL). Fantasy-wise, the Browns are giving up about
the league average in points to QBs and WRs but have yet to really
give up a monster game to any player. While A.J. Green easily
provides Haden with his biggest challenge of the year so far,
he was held in check by a similarly talented cornerback in Ike
Taylor in Week 2, so another average game could certainly be in
store for Green. This game is as a defensive battle between division
rivals that provides few fantasy stars, and thus each player's
potential drops down a notch. Although Green has one of his tougher
matchups of the year, he still must be started as a low-end WR1
simply because of his talent and the way Dalton locks onto him.
In standard size and scoring leagues I would simply avoid all
other Bengals passing game players, as they are either inconsistent
or have a very low upside in a tough road game.
Running Game Thoughts: The changing of the guard is certainly
at hand in Cincinnati, as rookie Giovani Bernard is earning more
touches each week and veteran BenJarvus Green-Ellis is getting
less and less. Bernard has just 19 yards less than BJGE despite
having less than half the carries of his older backfield mate.
He's also outpacing Green-Ellis in receptions and touchdowns.
While BJGE will certainly continue to get touches, both to keep
Bernard fresh and to provide a force between the tackles, the
future of the Bengals backfield, and fantasy owners' starting
rosters, is in Bernard. Unfortunately for both these players,
this week is a difficult matchup versus the NFL’s seventh
best run defense (in yards allowed) who are giving up just 2.8
yards per carry (second best in the NFL). The only back to have
any kind of success against the Browns this year was Adrian Peterson,
and he fell well below his average in that game. Neither of the
Bengals' backs are nearly as good as Peterson, and by splitting
reps it diminishes each of their value even more. The saving grace
for Bernard in this game is that he'll get a lot of check-downs,
and in what should be a close game till the end, the Bengals will
most likely run the ball upwards of 25 times. Bernard to me is
the guy to start here, and while his upside is limited by a committee
approach and a tough matchup, he should get enough touches to
be considered a mid-range RB2. As for Green-Ellis, unless Bernard
gets hurt, it's going to be tough to use him anymore this year
as more than a low-end RB3 unless it's just a killer matchup,
which this is not.
Projections:
Andy Dalton: 230 pass yds, 2 TDs, 1 INT
A.J. Green: 55 rec yds, 1 TD
BenJarvus Green-Ellis: 40 rush yds, 10 rec yds
Giovani Bernard: 55 rush yds, 45 rec yds
Mohamed Sanu: 55 rec yds
Tyler Eifert: 45 rec yds
Passing Game Thoughts: If the Bengals
defense can hold Aaron Rodgers to a very pedestrian game, what
are they going to do against Brian Hoyer this week? A crazy week
of trading and quarterback switching by the Browns ended in an
unexpected victory against the Vikings in Minnesota last week.
While Hoyer did not exactly look great (3 INTs), he did move the
chains (321 yards) and make good use of his best weapons, Josh
Gordon (10/146/1) and Jordan Cameron (6/66/3). This week the Browns
have a much more difficult matchup versus the Bengals, who rank
as one of the league’s better defensive units and are better
on the ground than through the air. Playing in the Browns' favor
is an injury to cornerback Leon Hall, who is questionable to play,
and another arrest by cornerback Adam Jones, who may or may not
be suspended for the game. For the Browns, it may be an ugly game
with multiple sacks, three-and-outs, and turnovers. But, with
very little run game to speak of, Hoyer may be forced to throw
the ball 30 or more times, meaning there is some opportunity here
for fantasy stats. Hoyer should be avoided simply because he will
no doubt have multiple turnovers and there are simply much better
options out there. Josh Gordon, on the other hand, has a chance
for another 15-plus targets (he had 19 last week), and with his
long speed, he may break one or two and make himself a solid WR3
this week. Jordan Cameron yet again provides solid TE1 value simply
because he is one of very few tight ends in the league who are
the focus of their offense. Cameron should be a constant red-zone
target and, with Gordon stretching the outside, should find himself
open more times than not in the short middle of the field. While
the Browns are gonna make it look ugly and do not have a traditional
offense, the presence of Gordon and Cameron make this team surprisingly
fantasy relevant, even in tougher-than-average matchups like this
one.
Running Game Thoughts: There is perhaps no other NFL backfield
right now that is uglier than the Cleveland Browns'. It is so
ugly that their leading rusher last week was defensive back Josh
Aubrey. Of course that will not happen again, but it is a sign
of where the Browns are right now in their run game. With his
first full week of practice under his belt, newly signed Willis
McGahee is expected to be the leader in rushing attempts this
week (he also was last week with almost no practice), but very
little is expected from him because of the tough matchup and the
fact that he is a soon-to-be 32-year-old veteran still knocking
the rust off. While the Browns may not be talent-rich right now,
they are smart enough to know that their offense has two playmakers
(Gordon and Cameron), and getting the ball to them as much as
possible is going to give them the best chance to win. While a
close, defensive battle is probably in store for this one, allowing
the opportunity to run 25 or more times, the Browns will probably
either (a.) not run that much and simply use short passes as their
run game, or (b.) run a lot and average about two yards per carry.
Either way, McGahee and any other combination of Browns running
backs will not produce enough to make them worth starting, even
if you're desperate. If McGahee can get in game shape and get
some rhythm going, he may be a guy to use later on in above-average
matchups, but this is neither the time nor the place to get cute.
Projections:
Brian Hoyer: 240 pass yds, 2 TDs, 2 INTs
Josh Gordon: 70 rec yds, 1 TD
Willis McGahee: 35 rush yds
Jordan Cameron: 55 rec yds, 1 TD
Prediction: Bengals 27, Browns 24
Bears @ Lions
- (Anderson)
Passing Game Thoughts: While the
Bears' stats through the air were not all that impressive last
week (159 yards, 1 TD), the matchup versus Pittsburgh was a tough
one, and Jay Cutler was efficient in the passes he did attempt.
The matchup this week gets a lot better, as the Lions rank in
the bottom half of the league in most defensive passing statistics,
although they have given up just two passing touchdowns thus far.
In the fair conditions of the dome against a high-flying offense,
this game could easily turn into a shootout. And for once in a
long time, the Bears have the personnel and offensive game plan
to keep pace. Because of the Lions' defensive strength being more
in the run department, coupled with the fact that the Bears seem
fine to go pass-heavy, Jay Cutler has a chance to be a borderline
QB1 this week and attempt 35 passes. While the Lions have been
a bit stingy to opposing wide receivers thus far, a quick look
at who they have faced tells the real story. The Vikings, Cardinals,
and Redskins all are average offenses and, outside of Larry Fitzgerald,
do not have any elite receiving options. This week the Lions will
have to deal with perhaps their toughest wide receiver matchup
(Marshall) and tight end matchup (Bennett) this year—and
very close to their toughest No. 2 receiver matchup (Jeffery).
While the Lions defense is better, I look to Chicago’s Week
2 opponent, the Vikings, as a guideline to what kind of numbers
the Bears could approach this weekend. This being said, I like
Marshall to get to 100 yards receiving and continue being a solid
WR1. Bennett had an off week last week but continues to be Cutler’s
favorite target from inside the 15 yard line, so another touchdown
is a likely bet, making him a low-end but solid TE1. As for Jeffery,
he tied for the team lead in targets last week and it is clear
that, unlike last season, he is more than a decoy and is truly
part of the game plan. He is still a bit risky as a WR3, but with
some good WRs from the Packers out on a bye this week, he could
provide a decent fill-in in this matchup.
Running Game Thoughts: Other than Michael Bush stealing a goal-line
touchdown last week from Matt Forte, there is not a lot to report
here. Forte continues to roll as a solid low- to mid-tier RB1
because of his work in the passing game and, besides the occasional
lost touchdown to Bush, is more than tripling Bush in touches.
The good thing with Forte this year is that the passing game is
taking pressure off him and the new coaching staff seems to like
him enough to give him opportunities on all downs, situations,
and matchups. The Lions, while stingy with the amount of yards
they have given up to opposing running backs, actually are very
favorable to fantasy RBs so far because of the six touchdowns
they have allowed in three games (4 rushing, 2 receiving). Because
of Forte’s dual ability—the best the Lions have faced
thus far—he has a great chance to get into the end zone
one way or another. And with the amount of touches he gets added
in, he is a no-brainer start this week as a solid RB1. While Bush
got a touchdown last week and was given the anointment as the
Bears goal-line back this week by Coach Trestman, he does not
get anywhere near enough touches to warrant any fantasy consideration
unless Forte gets hurt, you are very desperate, or the matchup
is out-of-this-world good.
Projections:
Jay Cutler: 290 pass yds, 2 TDs, 1INT
Brandon Marshall: 100 rec yds, 1 TD
Matt Forte: 70 rush yds, 30 rec yds, 1 TD
Alshon Jeffery: 70 rec yds
Martellus Bennett: 50 rec yds, 1 TD
Passing Game Thoughts: The biggest
news in the Lions passing game this week came when Detroit’s
No. 2 receiver, Nate Burleson, broke his arm. He is out indefinitely.
While Burleson was nothing more than an average WR3 for fantasy
purposes, the repercussions spread to more people than just his
owners. Luckily, the Lions are deep enough at wide receiver that
this injury should not affect Calvin Johnson or Matthew Stafford
much, as both were, and continue to be, solid WR1 and QB1 options.
The effect could be felt in how the targets will now be divided
up and who may see a bump in value. The best bet is wide receiver
Ryan Broyles, who made his season debut last week and caught three
balls on three targets for 34 yards. While this obviously was
not a big game, Broyles was reportedly on a snap count so that
they would not rush him back from injury too fast. This snap count
has now reportedly been lifted and Broyles could see at least
double the time he did last week. While he is not a speed guy,
he runs great routes and finds ways to get open, which is big
considering that Megatron runs deep a lot and often draws double
coverage. With this formula in place, Broyles could get 8-10 targets
in this and most matchups going forward (without Burleson), which
could make him a solid WR3 in many matchups. Of course there are
plenty of others (Scheffler, Pettigrew, Bush, Bell, Edwards) who
could pick up the slack and make Broyles not much more valuable
than he is now. Because of this uncertainty, it is tough to recommend
any Lions receiver right now other than Johnson until we see how
this shakes out, at least for one game. Speaking of Johnson, he
should be in for a huge day, as the Bears have let up the most
points to opposing teams No. 1 receivers the first three weeks,
with A.J. Green and Antonio Brown combining for four touchdowns,
18 catches, and well over 300 yards. While you were going to start
Johnson either way, this could be a week where he straight out
carries your team to victory. Besides the aforementioned Stafford
as a solid QB1, let’s take a wait-and-see approach to the
rest of the guys in this unit until someone steps up and starts
hogging those available targets.
Running Game Thoughts: While the Bears have done well against
opposing running backs thus far, they have really only faced one
challenge (Adrian Peterson), while holding less-than-average running
backs BenJarvus Green-Ellis and Jonathan Dwyer to a combined 64
yards on the ground. With Reggie Bush expected back this week
and the emergence of Joique Bell, the Bears will have their hands
full with two backs that can be dangerous both on the ground and
in the passing game. With the home crowd behind them, and running
in favorable conditions, the Detroit backs present a great combination
of speed, quickness, hands, and even a little power, with Bell
looking a bit bulked up from last season. The Bears will have
a tough time game-planning for these two backs, but so will fantasy
owners. We are not sure how valuable each one will be or how each
will be used. They both have been productive thus far and both
have similar skills. With Bush coming off a minor injury, I certainly
do not expect him to be overworked, especially with Bell obviously
being a capable backup. In this way, Bush’s upside is capped
by the Lions' wanting to keep him fresh and healthy. However,
Bush is a talented player and the Lions will want to keep him
on the field for most passing downs, so this limits Bell’s
upside this week as well. Overall, I’d say Bush is the better
start this week, but because they will split so much time, I don’t
see either back as anything more than a low-end RB2, with Bush
getting the bit better chance at more snaps. If they get near
the goal line and run it, I actually prefer Bell. But that is
so hard to predict that it might not be worth gambling on. Both
guys are safe to start but both have limited upside, so do not
expect a blowup game from either. Still, there is something to
be said for solid and safe.
Projections:
Matthew Stafford: 320 pass yds, 2 TDs, 1 INT
Reggie Bush: 45 rush yds, 55 rec yds
Joique Bell: 35 rush yds, 35 rec yds, 1 TD
Calvin Johnson: 135 rec yds, 2 TDs
Ryan Broyles: 70 rec yds
Prediction: Bears 30, Lions 27
Steelers @ Vikings
- (Anderson)
Passing Game Thoughts: The Steelers
passing attack has improved each week so far, and there are signs
that this unit could actually be a reliable source of fantasy
points from several positions. Last week Roethlisberger threw
for 406 yards (2 TDs, 2 INTs) and, despite taking a few big sacks,
looked accurate and efficient. It marked the return of one of
Ben’s favorite targets, tight end Heath Miller, but the
star of the show was wide receiver Antonio Brown, who caught nine
of his 13 targets for 196 yards and two touchdowns. If Ben can
get a little better production and perhaps work in rookie dynamo
wide receiver Markus Wheaton, this unit has some real potential
to do some serious damage. This week, the Steelers should have
a nice matchup through the air, as the Vikings have struggled
mightily to stop anybody to this point, allowing the fifth most
passing yards in the NFL. In addition, they have allowed the most
touchdowns through the air (9) and have sacked opposing quarterbacks
only four times (second worst in the NFL), something they built
their defense around in recent years. The scary thing for the
Vikings defense is that last week (at home) they gave up 321 yards
and three touchdowns to a quarterback (Brian Hoyer) who was previously
third string and had never started an NFL game. With all this
being said, the Steelers certainly have multiple who guys can
be useful fantasy starters in this one. For Roethlisberger owners,
300-plus yards is certainly possible this week. He has a full
and healthy set of weapons at his disposal, making him a solid
low-end QB1. While Brown is not the traditional size of a true
No 1 receiver, it is obvious that his complaining about wanting
the ball more after Week 2 paid off. Last week’s stat line
will likely go down as his best of the year, but Brown should
now be started with confidence as a very solid WR3 going forward,
with this week’s matchup being juicy enough for him to be
considered a decent WR2. Emmanuel Sanders has yet to have that
breakout game this year but is averaging about 60 yards a game
and, in his best matchup to date, could be a decent WR3 this week
if needed. Heath Miller is expected to play a full array of snaps
this week and it could not come at a better time, as the Vikings
have given up the second most fantasy points to TEs this season.
While Miller has never been the most athletic tight end around,
he has Ben’s confidence and is a reliable red-zone and medium-range
target. I look for Miller to have a semi-breakout game this week
and be a borderline TE1 in a plus matchup.
Running Game Thoughts: Maybe, finally,
hopefully! These are words that Steelers fans, and Le’Veon
Bell owners, are thinking this week as we anticipate the debut
of the rookie running back who went down with an injury before
the regular season started. With the running game committee being
so bad the first three games (31st in rushing, no TDs), Bell is
expected not only to play, but immediately start and get the most
touches. What Bell will do with those touches is anybody’s
guess, as he is just a rookie in his debut, running behind a line
that has not exactly opened the biggest holes in the league...
but still, it's progress. The Vikings defense, even coming off
a game where they held the pitiful Browns rushing attack to just
103 total yards, is struggling so far in yardage allowed (21st
in the league) and fantasy points allowed to RBs (4th most generous).
It is a great matchup for the Steelers run game, especially if
they can get the Vikings to respect the passing game early on,
which they should be able to do. It is very tough to recommend
a guy like Bell in his first game, coming off an injury, on a
team that has done almost nothing on the ground the first three
weeks. Still, with bye weeks starting and injuries around the
league occurring, Bell is a startable player in his debut, though
probably as just a flex player until we see something out of him.
While it is hard to guess what kind of player Bell will end up
being, the fact that he is returning to action is a positive sign
for his owners and for the Steelers, who had one of the worst
running attacks in the NFL the first three weeks.
Projections:
Ben
Roethlisberger: 300 pass yds, 2 TDs, 1 INT
Antonio
Brown: 90 rec yds
Emmanuel
Sanders: 70 rec yds
Heath
Miller: 70 rec yds, 1 TD
Le’Veon
Bell: 55 rush yds, 10 rec yds
Passing Game Thoughts: Quarterback
Christian Ponder is questionable this week (Matt Cassel would
start if Ponder can’t go), but this is a fantasy football
column, meaning the Ponder info is not that important because
you are most likely (and hopefully) not going to start him. You
are not going to start him first because he is bad, throwing more
interceptions (5) than touchdowns (2), and currently ranking outside
of the top 20 in passing yards, completion percentage, times sacked,
and quarterback rating. You are also (hopefully) not going to
start him this week because the matchup is a bad one, with the
Steelers giving up the least amount of fantasy points to opposing
QBs thus far. Add this to the fact that Ponder is hurt (ribs)
and his replacement would be making his first start on a new team,
and you have a QB situation to avoid. Along with not starting
any Vikings QB, chances are you are not going to start any Vikings
WRs this week unless you are in a big league or are having some
bye-week issues. It’s not that there is no talent in the
receiving corps, because Greg Jennings isn’t bad, tight
end Kyle Rudolph is a great red zone target, and rookie receiver
Cordarrelle Patterson could be a game-changing player. The problem
is that none of them are consistent enough as a go-to guy to start
with confidence any week yet. The yardage is not there through
the air, and with only two receiving touchdowns through three
games, the scoring opportunities are obviously not there either.
On top of this, the matchup is pretty rough, with the Steelers
being the second toughest for opposing fantasy WRs and 12th toughest
for opposing TEs to score against. In a 12-team league, I can
see the argument for starting Rudolph, as he is still the Vikings'
best option for catching touchdowns, but his yardage numbers are
way down so far, and you are gambling on any Vikings touchdown
that is not from Peterson. Jennings had a nice Week 2 but otherwise
has not looked anything like the guy who spent his glory years
in Green Bay. He is a very low-end WR3 this week. Patterson may
eventually be the guy in Minnesota, but he is still not getting
enough looks to warrant anything more than WR4 status.
Matt
Cassel will start for the injured Christian Ponder.
Running Game Thoughts: The Adrian
Peterson show rolls along again this week in his second home game
of the year, but this time with a bit of a boost. Fullback Jerome
Felton is back from suspension and should immediately make a positive
impact on Peterson, who struggled a bit last week versus a stout
Browns run defense. Last year Peterson gained 2.3 more yards per
carry with Felton on the field compared to when he was not. While
the Steelers run defense has been among the league’s best
the past few seasons, they are off to a bit of a rough start,
allowing 70-plus yards to a single running back each of the first
three weeks, along with at least one rushing touchdown each week.
While the Steelers are no pushover on defense (just 3.3 ypc allowed),
they are currently the fifth most generous defense to opposing
fantasy RBs. With their quarterback situation in flux and going
up against the Steelers' strong pass defense, and with the strength
of the team being in the ground game anyway, I expect the Vikings
to run 30-plus times and provide Peterson with plenty of opportunities
to break some big runs. The matchup is not perfect, but you are
starting Peterson anyway, and the numbers say that he should at
least be a low-end RB1. But being the running back that he is,
that is probably his floor this week.
Projections:
Christian
Ponder: 185 pass yds, 1 TD, 2 INTs
Adrian
Peterson: 105 rush yds, 1 TD, 15 rec yds
Greg
Jennings: 40 rec yds
Cordarrelle
Patterson: 40 rec yds
Kyle
Rudolph: 30 rec yds, 1 TD
Prediction: Steelers 24, Vikings
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