Giants @ Bears
- (Anderson)
Passing Game Thoughts: Against one
of the league’s worst defenses last week Eli Manning and
company should have dominated with all the talent they have. Unfortunately
for them, the Eagles were a little better than advertised and
Eli was a bit underwhelming. While the yardage (334) and TD’s
(2) were respectable, the completion percentage was horrible (46%),
the INT’s were just as bad (3), and the entire passing unit
just felt out of sync. While both Hakeem Nicks (9/142) and Rueben
Randle (6/96/2) had great fantasy games, the Eagles decided to
focus on slowing down Victor Cruz (5/48), and it worked, as he
caught less than half his targets. At 0-5 the Giants, despite
a lot of talent in the skill positions, seem to be on the brink
of disaster. Bad things tend to happen when players know their
season is pretty much over, and you could see the frustration
on the field last week with the entire team, as there seemed to
be a lack of energy towards the end of the game. While guys like
Cruz will continue to put up numbers, I would knock all Giants
players down a notch from here on out simply because of the atmosphere
around the team.
What’s worse, the Giants have a short week to travel to
Chicago where they have little time to try and fix what has been
ailing them. While the Bears have not been strong in their pass
defense to this point (6th most passing yards allowed in NFL),
they are better than the Eagles, especially better at home, and
are certainly upset coming off a home loss to the Saints. On paper
this is not a terrible matchup for the Giants, as the Bears have
been the 13th most generous to opposing fantasy QB’s and
the 17th most generous to WR’s. While the yardage may be
there in this game, Eli at this point is a very weak QB2, as he
has been brutally inconsistent and now has 4 more INT’s
than TD’s (league-leading 12 INT’s). With multiple
offensive line injuries and the fact that he seems on a different
page than his receivers, he simply can’t be trusted at this
point, maybe after the bye week, but certainly not in this game.
Last week was an off week for Cruz but I fully expect him to return
to low-end WR1 status this week. With pretty much no run game
the Giants will be forced to throw 40+ times and Cruz will certainly
be the target leader after a down week against the Eagles. As
for Nicks and Randle, I see them both as low to mid-range WR3’s,
you could do better but you certainly could do worse. I actually
like Randle a bit more than Nicks as the season goes on, as the
G-men look to the future. TE Brandon Myers is off the fantasy
radar to all but the most desperate owners.
Running Game Thoughts: With David Wilson being ruled out of this
game with a neck injury the carries will be divided up between
Brandon Jacobs and newly re-signed Da’Rel Scott. The Giants,
to this point have one of the NFL’s absolute worst rushing
attacks, ranking 31st in yardage and 27th in yards per carry.
With injuries to the offensive line, an inconsistent passing attack,
and just plain bad play from their RB’s, the situation does
not look like it will improve anytime soon, especially on a short
week. Even if this were a plus matchup, I would not have much
confidence in either RB as anything more than a low-end RB3 this
week. Against the Bears (in Chicago), who have been decent versus
the run (14th fewest yards allowed) I would avoid the whole Giants
backfield entirely. When Wilson returns, this backfield may be
worth a look but currently there is nothing to see here.
Projections:
Eli Manning: 280 pass yds, 2 TD, 2 INT
Victor Cruz: 90 rec yds, 1 TD
Hakeem Nicks: 50 rec yds
Rueben Randle: 70 rec yds
Brandon Jacobs: 35 rush yds
Da’Rel
Scott: 20 rush yds, 15 rec yds
Passing Game Thoughts: While the
Bears lost last week to the Saints, it was another strong performance
for Jay Cutler and company who put up 358 passing yards and 2
TD’s (0 INT). The most impressive member of the passing
attack was WR Alshon Jeffery who bested his career game (last
week) with 218 yards and 1 TD. While WR Brandon Marshall complained
after the game about the number of passes thrown his way (5),
the emergence of Jeffery could actually be a great ting for Marshall,
as double teams should start to move away, making him even more
dangerous. With TE Martellus Bennett and RB Matt Forte, the Bears
now have 4 legit threats to catch the ball and I expect Cutler
and this passing game to get even better as the year goes on and
they feel more comfortable with the system.
This week the Bears have an excellent matchup, as they host a
Giants team who made backup QB Nick Foles look pretty good last
week, and are now among the eight worst teams in passing yards
given up, passing TD’s given up, and sacks registered. In
addition, the G-men have been the fifth most generous to opposing
fantasy QB’s and tenth most generous to opposing fantasy
TE’s. Against a team that has no momentum and is turnover
prone, I can see the Bears getting into good situations, making
them an excellent source of fantasy points this week. I like Cutler
as a solid QB1 at home and could even compete for top 8 honors
at the position. Brandon Marshall should get some extra love this
week, and with defenses forced to now respect Jeffery, I can see
Marshall easily returning to top 5 status at WR. As for Jeffery,
I said last week that we needed to wait and make him prove it
before feeling good about him as a WR3. Well, last week was all
the proof I needed and I see no reason not to trust him as a mid-range
WR3 against a weak Giants pass defense. Finally, against his former
team, I like Bennett (knee, but should play) as a top 12 option
at TE, as he is a good bet to score a TD against a team who has
given up 4 touchdowns to opposing TE’s thus far.
Running Game Thoughts: While the Bears are now more of a pass-heavy
offense, they still keep defenses honest with a fairly consistent
(23.4 rushes per game) and efficient (4.6 yards per carry) run
game. With Michael Bush averaging less than 4 carries per game
this part of the offense is all about Matt Forte who is having
a resurgent fantasy season as both a runner and pass-catcher.
Because of his pass catching ability, Forte will be used heavily
regardless of game situation. In this particular matchup, Forte
maybe used even more than normal, as the Giants rush defense has
the most attempts against it thus far and the 3rd most rush yards
allowed to this point. In addition, the Giants defense has allowed
the 8th most fantasy points to opposing RB’s and the 7th
most receptions to opposing RB’s as well. This all adds
up to Forte having a top 10 fantasy day at the RB position this
week, and there is little reason to believe the Giants will do
anything but crumble amid all the turmoil they are going through
in a hostile environment. If the Bears get out to an early lead,
Forte may even have his best game of the season so far. Michael
Bush may get more carries than average in that scenario but is
still far off the fantasy radar.
Projections:
Jay Cutler: 315 pass yds, 3 TD, 1 INT
Brandon Marshall: 105 rec yds, 1 TD
Alshon Jeffery: 70 rec yds
Martellus Bennett: 55 rec yds, 1 TD
Matt Forte: 90 rush yds, 1 TD, 30 rec yds
Prediction: Bears 33, Giants 24 ^ Top
Lions @ Browns
- (Anderson)
Passing Game Thoughts: The success,
or lack thereof, of the Lions passing game this week hinges mostly
on one thing: Calvin Johnson’s status. As we saw last week,
Johnson not only determines a lot of how successful Matthew Stafford
is but also how the other receivers play, and even how the run
game plays. Even against a below-average passing defense last
week, Stafford was rattled and struggled to find open receivers
more than a few yards downfield. No receiver really stepped up
in Johnson’s absence, so the defense was able to halt the
run game and get to Stafford five times. What’s scary for
the Lions is that the matchup this week is against one of the
best defenses in the league. Even with Johnson, they may have
a hard time; without him, they will really struggle to move the
ball. Currently Johnson is questionable, as he is not practicing
but has the confidence of the coach’s that he does not need
to practice to play. If Johnson does not play, I would personally
bench all Lions offensive players other than maybe Reggie Bush
as a low-end RB2. That is how much I think Johnson makes an impact,
especially in a tough matchup. If Johnson does suit up, which
I actually think is likely, things get a little better, as Stafford
will have his most trusted target and the rest of the offense
should feel a lot less pressure. As for Johnson himself, he has
to be started if he plays, but against an elite cornerback like
Joe Haden, I would expect low-end rather than the elite WR1 numbers
that we have come to expect. Because Johnson would improve the
entire offense, Stafford would be ok as a high-end QB2 if Johnson
plays.
He would certainly not be much better than that because of the
Browns defense, which ranks in the top eight in pass yards per
game allowed, touchdown passes allowed, sacks, longest pass allowed,
yards per pass attempt allowed, and quarterback rating allowed.
On top of that, they are the fourth toughest team for opposing
fantasy QB’s to score against. Besides Johnson and Stafford,
no other passing unit player is on the fantasy radar this week,
except for possibly TE Brandon Pettigrew in PPR leagues.
Running Game Thoughts: Without Calvin Johnson to keep the defense
downfield last week, the run game really struggled to get anything
going, finishing with just 64 yards on the ground. The good thing,
from a fantasy perspective, for Reggie Bush and Joique Bell is
that they can get involved in the pass game enough to overcome
a tough rushing day—most weeks. The Browns present a difficult
challenge, as they have one of the tougher front sevens in all
of football and a good enough secondary to keep offenses from
throwing all day. In other words, it will be a long day for the
Lions backfield. As long as Johnson plays and keeps the defense
honest, I can see Bush and Bell getting outside the tackles and
using their speed to break off a few nice runs, but the big-yardage
day is simply not going to be there. They are going to need to
rely on volume of touches both in the run game and the pass game
in order to accumulate enough stats for a decent fantasy day.
The good news is that with Brandon Weeden back at the helm, the
Browns will not be lighting up the scoreboard, so the Lions should
not be in crazy catch-up mode at any point. While it won’t
be pretty, 15 total touches for Bush is reasonable, giving him
value as a low-end RB2 this week. I like what Bell is doing for
the Lions but he is not flex worthy when Bush is healthy unless
the matchup is good, and this is pretty much the opposite. Keep
him on your bench in all but the deepest PPR leagues.
Projections:
Matthew Stafford: 230 pass yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
Calvin Johnson: 55 rec yds, 1 TD
Brandon Pettigrew: 35 rec yds
Reggie Bush: 55 rush yds, 35 rec yds
Joique Bell: 25 rush yds, 20 rec yds
Passing Game Thoughts: With Brian
Hoyer out for the year it is once again the Brandon Weeden show,
starting this week when the Browns face a “bend but don’t
break” Lions passing defense. While Hoyer thrived for two
games and had wide receiver Josh Gordon and tight end Jordan Cameron
looking like top 5 options at their respective positions, Weeden
has struggled with consistency, accuracy, and the speed of the
game in his three-game stint this season. Weeden does posses the
strong arm needed to get the ball down field, but he often takes
too long making decisions and often misses some easy throws. While
Gordon and Cameron are still two excellent talents and should
remain the players to which this offense flows, they both should
be slightly downgraded with Weeden under center.
This week Weeden and company face a Lions pass defense who have
let up a healthy amount of yardage (268 ypg, 20th in the NFL),
but have amassed more interceptions (8, second in the NFL) than
touchdowns (5, seventh best in the NFL). Because of this, Detroit
is considered just an average matchup for opposing passing game
players, where the yardage will probably be there but many scores
will not. This matchup actually lines up with Weeden pretty decently,
as he does usually rack up decent yardage but not a lot of scores,
while having the propensity to throw multiple picks. Weeden is
pretty far off the fantasy radar in most matchups, this one included,
as he may flirt with 300 yards but should have several turnovers
and will probably be lucky to get one touchdown. As for Gordon,
he may not be as successful as he was with Hoyer, but being one
of the league’s premier deep threats (eighth best yards
per reception for players who have caught more than 30 balls)
means all it takes is one long bomb to make his fantasy day. While
Weeden’s inconsistency drops Gordon from being a possible
wide 1, he remains a solid WR2 until he proves otherwise. Because
of the lack of quality depth at the top of the fantasy TE tiers,
Cameron should still be considered a TE1 even with Weeden taking
over. The Browns offense features the tight end, and even if Cameron’s
catches drop a little, he will still be targeted enough to make
him one of the eight most reliable fantasy TEs this week. No other
Browns passing game player is remotely on the fantasy radar.
Running Game Thoughts: While the Browns rushing attack is certainly
one of the least attractive and exciting units in fantasy football,
this week may actually present a good time to use them, as a perfect
storm of good matchup, home game, quarterback situation, and momentum
line is culminating. While Willis McGahee is over the hill in
terms of NFL running backs, he is evidently the unquestioned leader
in the Browns backfield, accounting for all but two of the carries
by running backs last week (28 total). With Weeden back as the
starting quarterback, the Browns may try to run more than they
did with Hoyer, meaning another 25 or more carries for McGahee
is well within reach.
With the Browns' elite defense, this game should never fall too
much out of hand, especially if the Lions offense is without Calvin
Johnson, or comes close to the horrible showing they displayed
against an average Green Bay defense last week. Add all this to
the fact that the Lions are giving up a generous 5.3 yards per
carry (31st in the NFL), the sixth most rushing yards, and the
third most rushing touchdowns (tied), and you have a recipe for
a solid RB3 or even a low-end RB2 day for McGahee. While McGahee
does not offer much at all in the passing game (0 catches so far),
he is the bell-cow and the goal-line ball carrier for this team,
and in a plus matchup like this one, that counts for something
in fantasy.
Projections:
Brandon Weeden: 280 pass yds, 1 TD, 2 INTs
Josh Gordon: 80 rec yds
Jordan Cameron: 50 rec yds, 1 TD
Willis McGahee: 75 rush yds, 1 TD
Prediction: Lions 17, Browns 13
Packers @ Ravens
- (Anderson)
Passing Game Thoughts: It was the
same story for the Packers passing game last week, as Aaron Rodgers
was efficient (67% completions), explosive (9.1 yards per attempt),
and fairly productive (274 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT) en route to a 22-9
victory in which the passing game took its foot off the gas for
much of the second half. The only real disappointment with the
passing unit was Randall Cobb's only getting 35 yards, but it’s
hard to feed four or more receivers in a game when the offense
slows down in order to milk the clock.
This week the Packers face a Ravens pass defense that let up some
decent stats last week to the Dolphins, a much less talented team
than the Packers. The Ravens pass defense has been up and down
(167 pass yards allowed in Week 4 and 462 yards and seven touchdowns
allowed Week 1) and so is overall a middle-of-the-road pass defense
statistically. The one area in which they do stand out is sacks,
where they rank second in the NFL with 19. While the Ravens are
certainly not an elite defense anymore, it is important to note
that they are still growing together with all the new faces and
trying to make it work. The pass rush is certainly there already,
but the coverage has been lax in most games so far. In this matchup
I can see the Ravens blitzing the you know what out of the Packers,
as they attempt to attack one of Green Bay's few offensive weaknesses,
the O-line. With cover corner Lardarius Webb probably assigned
to Jordy Nelson most of the game and with the defense in Rodgers'
face, I envision a lot of quick passes to Randall Cobb, making
him the Green Bay receiver to own in this one. His is a solid
WR1 this week. As for Nelson, who has actually been the most consistent
Packers receiver, I still like him as a high-end WR2 in this matchup,
but he will face a challenge in getting open versus Webb. James
Jones seems to be a boom-or-bust guy most weeks but has too much
upside to ever really sit. In this matchup I like him as a high-end
WR3 who should have some opportunities after coming off back-to-back
games with a touchdown. Tight end Jermichael Finley has yet to
have that breakout game, and I don’t think this will be
it, but he has been catching five or six balls most games this
year, meaning he is a startable low-end TE1 again this week. Last
but not least, Rodgers is pretty much matchup proof, and while
the Ravens are good enough to keep him from top 3 status this
week, he is easily a top 8 option. And last week’s 307/1/0
performance by Ryan Tannehill should be considered an absolute
baseline for what Rodgers will do this week.
Running Game Thoughts: Although running back Eddie Lacy is a rookie
and missed time with a concussion, it is clear the Packers think
he is good enough to be their bell-cow, as he returned last week
and got the vast majority of carries (23 out of 26) and made good
use of them, rushing for 99 yards. Granted, it was against a below-average
Lions run defense, but it was a good sign for Lacy owners that
he may not be a part of much of a committee, and instead may get
a real chance to be the man. With James Starks most likely out
again and fellow rookie running back Jonathan Franklin doing nothing
but fumbling last week, Lacy should easily see another 15 or more
carries this week.
While all of that is good news, the bad news is that the Ravens
are a good run defense, currently allowing the sixth least rushing
yards per game, a paltry 3.4 yards per carry (fifth in the NFL),
just one rushing touchdown (second in the NFL), and a long run
of just 16 yards (first in the NFL). With the Packers' emphasis
always being on the pass anyway, Lacy may not have much running
room with the carries he does get, and that means a big fantasy
day is probably out of the question. The good thing for Lacy is
that the Packers offense is strong enough to always be in any
game, so he should at least have some opportunities in all four
quarters of this one. Do not expect more than low-end RB2 numbers
from Lacy this week (especially because he does not get involved
in passing game), but better matchups are sure to come, and I
actually like him as a buy-low candidate after this week’s
game, which should be a tough one for the rookie.
Projections:
Aaron Rodgers: 310 pass yds, 2 TDs, 1 INT
Randall Cobb: 85 rec yds, 1 TD
Eddie Lacy: 50 rush yds
Jordy Nelson: 55 rec yds
James Jones: 70 rec yds
Jermichael Finley: 50 rec yds
Passing Game Thoughts: Although
the Ravens seem to have re-committed themselves to the run game
and Ray Rice, there is still some value that can be had in their
passing game, especially in a better matchup like this one. Besides
wide receiver Marlon Brown’s three touchdowns in four games,
the Ravens passing offense, from a fantasy perspective, is all
about Torrey Smith. Smith is third in the NFL in receiving yards,
second in receiving yards per catch, seventh in targets, and first
in catches of 20-plus yards. While his one touchdown is disappointing,
Smith has been explosive and consistent while running many more
routes than just the “GO” he favored last season.
With a strong-armed quarterback, Smith should remain active and
is becoming nearly matchup-proof in all but the most difficult
circumstances. Helping both Smith and the Ravens passing game
this week is the supposed return of both Jacoby Jones and Marlon
Brown from injury. While neither guy is anywhere near elite, they
are both bigger, faster receivers who can draw some legit defensive
attention away from Smith and give Flacco some nice choices both
deep and in the red zone.
Even better this week is that the Packers pass defense is not
only missing one of their best pass rushers and all around players
in Pro Bowl linebacker Clay Matthews, but they have been struggling
mightily even when he's on the field. Currently, the Packers are
giving up the seventh most passing yardage, the fourth highest
yards per attempt, and the eighth highest completion percentage
in the NFL. Without Matthews in the lineup to create pressure,
it is possible these numbers get even worse in a hurry. On top
of all that, the Packers are among the 10 most generous teams
to opposing fantasy QBs, WRs, and TEs. While the Ravens are committed
to the run, the Packers offense is high-scoring and can put anyone’s
defense in a hole fast, so I expect Flacco and company to have
to throw 30 or more times when all is said and done, especially
with knowing that the Packers pass defense is a weakness. Flacco
is normally an average QB2, and a matchup like this should get
him to the borderline QB1 level, even with an emphasis on the
run game. I love Torrey Smith in this game because there are other
things the defense has to be paying attention to, and with his
deep speed he could break multiple big plays. He’s a solid
WR1 here. While Brown has a chance to catch another touchdown
at close range because of his 6’5’’ size, he
is a fairly risky start because of Jones’ return and the
fact that most of his value relies on his scoring. He is a low-end
but interesting WR3 this week. While Jacoby Jones may make an
impact, it may not be as much in the box score this week, and
I would hesitate to put him in starting lineups at all until we
see how he fits in with this unit. While the Packers allow a fair
amount of fantasy point to TEs, the Ravens are simply not using
any of theirs consistently enough to recommend them as more than
low-level TE2s. There are better options out there.
Running Game Thoughts: Ray Rice owners rejoice! After a horrible
four-game stretch to start the year, where he was either underutilized,
injured, or ineffective, the Ravens committed to using Rice as
their offensive focal point and Rice responded with 33 touches
for 102 total yards and two touchdowns. His yards per carry was
not pretty (2.7), but the Dolphins do have a tough front seven
and he is clearly not 100 percent healthy from the hip injury
that cost him all of Week 4. Still, it was a good sign, especially
because the Ravens won and should continue to ride Rice until
the formula stops working.
The matchup this week is not a great one, as the Packers are the
fifth best defense in rush yards per game given up, yet they will
be without one of their best players in linebacker Clay Matthews,
who broke his thumb last week. While the Packers present a solid
challenge to the Ravens run game, there are some things going
in Baltimore’s favor. First, the Ravens may be getting some
extra help in the form of wide receivers Jacoby Jones and Marlon
Brown (returning from injury), both of whom should be able to
stretch the defense, and left tackle Eugene Monroe, who was acquired
from the Jags but did not have enough time to acclimate to his
new team last week (inactive). If these three play and can contribute
at their normal level, it will lift the run game to a height it
hasn't yet reached this year. With another week gone by for Rice
to get healthier, I fully expect the Ravens to give him another
20 total touches and, more than likely, a couple of goal-line
looks. While this is not the best matchup Rice will see all year,
things are coming together nicely for him right now and he should
be considered a top-end RB2 this week, with the upside to be a
low-end RB1. As for Bernard Pierce, he continues to be an excellent
change-of-pace guy and borderline RB3 even with Rice healthy,
as he is capable of breaking off long runs (a 28-yarder last week)
and contributing in the passing game. While this Packers defense
presents a tougher-than-average matchup, I’d be ok with
using Pierce as a low-end RB3 or flex guy, especially with bye
weeks in full effect and Pierce's being relatively consistent
and performing better at home this year.
Projections:
Joe Flacco: 275 pass yds, 2 TDs, 1 INT
Torrey Smith: 100 rec yds, 1 TD
Marlon Brown: 35 rec yds, 1 TD
Ed Dickson: 30 rec yds
Ray Rice: 70 rush yds, 1 TD, 20 rec yds
Bernard Pierce: 35 rush yds, 15 rec yds
Prediction: Ravens 28, Packers 27
Panthers @ Vikings
- (Anderson)
Passing Game Thoughts: Other than
in a 38-0 rout of the Giants a couple of weeks back, the Panthers
pass game has really struggled this season, with lots of dropped
passes, inconsistent play, and trouble moving the chains (third
lowest ypg passing). While the Panthers are not deep in talent,
there is nothing like a juicy matchup to get the train back on
the tracks. The Vikings pass defense has been pretty awful thus
far, giving up the third most yards through the air and allowing
the fourth most touchdown passes (tied) even though they have
already played one less game than many other teams because of
their bye week. What is perhaps most troubling for the Vikings
is their nine sacks (29th in the NFL), which is something they
are used to being great at. In addition, the Vikings are giving
up the seventh most points per game to opposing fantasy QBs, 11th
most to WRs and second most to TEs. While the numbers say Cam
Newton and Co. should have a breakout game this week, I would
not go all in on them just yet. First, the game is in Minnesota
and the Vikings have had a bye week to prepare and rest. Second,
two important offensive players are either out or hurting: left
guard Amini Silatolu is done for the year and tight end Greg Olsen
has not practiced this week with some kind of foot or ankle issue.
Besides Steve Smith, Olsen has been the Panthers' only reliable
weapon, so his not playing or being less than 100 percent would
mean the defense can focus mainly on Smith, really hurting Cam’s
potential numbers.
Because Newton is a dual threat and is consistently putting up
25 or more rushing yards, he has to be considered at least a mid-tier
QB1 this week against a weak Vikings pass defense. I would not
expect him to have a career day or anything, but he should put
up good all-around numbers, especially if Olsen plays. With the
Vikings' being so generous to opposing fantasy TEs, Olsen is an
easy TE1 as long as he plays. The only other passing unit player
worth looking at is of course Smith, who is having just an average
year but can break out any game and had 100 yards and a touchdown
the last time these two teams met. He is a solid WR2 this week.
While some fantasy owners may want to get fancy and start Ted
Ginn in order to ride his hot streak, I would advise against it
simply because there are much safer WR3 options and Ginn has a
track record of being boom or bust.
Running Game Thoughts: For DeAngelo Williams there is both good
and bad news this week. Most people like hearing the bad news
first, so here goes. Williams, after three nice yardage games
on the ground, fell back down to Earth hard last week, totaling
just 39 yards against a stout Cardinals defense. He still has
zero touchdowns on the year and has just 41 combined yards receiving
in four games. In addition, starting left guard Amini Silatolu
tore his ACL last week and is out for the season, making an average
offensive line much worse in a hurry.
Now for of good news. Williams is still the bell-cow in this backfield—although
not for long, with Jonathan Stewart due back next week. What’s
better is that the Vikings are not a great rush defense, allowing
nearly 105 yards per game on the ground. In addition, they're
allowing the second most fantasy points per game to opposing fantasy
RBs and do not have an offense that can pull far enough away from
the Panthers to make them give up on the run. While Williams is
still not an exciting option, he should have enough juice and
opportunity to make him a high-end RB3 here, or a bye-week RB2
for the somewhat desperate. My advice to Williams owners is to
enjoy this game and if at all possible sell after this week, as
the backfield is about to get cloudier with Stewart coming back
and rookie Kenjon Barner also expected to gradually get more and
more looks. No other Panthers running back is on the fantasy radar
in this matchup.
Projections:
Cam Newton: 240 pass yds, 2 TDs, 1 INT, 30 rush yds
Steve Smith: 90 rec yds 1 TD
Greg Olsen: 70 rec yds, 1 TD
Ted Ginn Jr.: 50 rec yds
DeAngelo Williams: 70 rush yds, 10 rec yds
Passing Game Thoughts: While the
Panthers are not a good team, their passing defense is actually
among the better units in the NFL. They are giving up the eighth
lowest yards per game and have given up the second fewest touchdowns,
just one more than the Browns. With this in mind, the Panthers
obviously are not friendly to opposing fantasy QBs, ranking as
the second stingiest in that department, along with being among
the 10 toughest to both TEs and WRs in fantasy points allowed.
With Matt Cassel expected to get the start in this one, it would
be surprising if the Vikings did not stick with their normal game
plan of going run heavy, and perhaps even more so than usual.
Obviously Cassel is off the radar, not only because of the matchup,
his (lack) of real weapons, and his limitations, but also because
the quarterback situation in Minnesota is in such flux that it
he may not even play the whole game. As for Minnesota's receiving
unit, none are anywhere near safe options this week, with Jennings
and Simpson being madly inconsistent, Patterson being underutilized
thus far, and Rudolph producing at a much lower level than last
year. If I had to pick one guy in the group, it would be Jennings
as a low-end WR3, but even that is a stretch. This game will be
mostly about defense and a man named Adrian Peterson.
Running Game Thoughts: Regardless of the weather, who starts at
quarterback, who is president, or what kind of trouble Miley Cyrus
is getting into, there is one thing you can set your watch to:
Adrian Peterson. Peterson remains one of fantasy’s best
bets and perhaps the only RB you can trust every single week regardless
of matchup or situation. Peterson is one of only two RBs this
season (LeSean McCoy being the other) to have averaged over 100
yards per game rushing. Peterson is the league leader, by the
way, and is also first in rushing touchdowns and, despite being
on a bye last week, is among the top six backs in rush attempts.
Sure, people may look at the matchup and point out the fact that
the Panthers are one of the top rushing defenses in the NFL (seventh
in yards allowed per game) and have allowed only two rushing touchdowns,
but sometimes numbers do not matter much, especially when a super-human
talent is involved. The fact is, Peterson is fresh and healthy
coming off a bye week, at home where he has put up slightly better
stats despite facing tougher opponents this year, and still the
focal point of the entire offense. Will this be Peterson’s
best game of the year? Almost certainly not, as the Panthers should
at least slow him down a bit, but in Week 3 Peterson put up 88
yards and a touchdown with an additional 27 yards receiving against
a Brown’s rushing defense that is at least as good as the
Panthers . I would look at those numbers as an absolute baseline
for what Peterson should do this week, meaning he is an easy top
10 option at the position once again.
Projections:
Matt Cassel: 190 pass yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
Greg Jennings: 55 rec yds
Jerome Simpson: 40 rec yds
Kyle Rudolph: 35 rec yds
Adrian Peterson: 95 rush yds, 1 TD, 15 rec yds
Prediction: Vikings 20, Panthers 17
Eagles at Buccaneers
- (Smith)
Passing Game Thoughts: Michael Vick
was still questionable to play against the Buccaneers as of this
writing due to his hamstring malady, leaving fantasy owners with
the possibility of plugging in Nick Foles. Foles threw for nearly
200 yards and a pair of scores after taking over for Vick last
week against the Giants, a solid effort to be sure, but I wouldn’t
be putting my eggs in his basket. Limit your expectations for
DeSean Jackson, despite his outstanding season to date. Jackson
is tied for sixth among wideouts in FPTS/G, tied for 15th in receptions
(28), and third in receiving yards (525). However, the Buccaneers
have been relatively stingy against opposing passing games this
season.
Tampa is 15th in the league in passing yards per game allowed
and has surrendered the 14th-fewest FPTS/G to quarterbacks. They
have at least one interception in each of their four games this
season, have allowed multiple touchdown throws just once and only
Drew Brees in Week 2 and nobody has accumulated more than 260
passing yards when facing the Bucs. Considering that relative
success, it should come as no surprise that just six teams have
allowed fewer FPTS/G to wide receivers than Tampa, who have surrendered
more than 70 yards to a receiver just once this season. The team
has had their difficulties with tight ends though, as they are
tied for sixth-most FPTS/G given up to players at that position.
Running Game Thoughts: LeSean McCoy has lived up to preseason
expectations for his fantasy owners so far. The Pitt product leads
the league in rushing yards, is seventh in receiving yards among
running backs and fourth in FPTS/G. McCoy has at least 90 combined
rushing and receiving yards in all five of his games this year,
and even though Tampa offers a stern test, he’s a RB1 against
any opponent.
There is only one NFL team this season that has yet to allow a
rushing touchdown – the Buccaneers. Tampa is ninth in rushing
yards per game allowed, 11th in YPC surrendered (3.7) and only
four teams have relinquished fewer FPTS/G to running backs than
they have. There are a couple of factors to take note of, however.
First, the Bucs have faced the Jets, Saints, Patriots, and Cardinals,
none of which have upper-echelon runners and second, Tampa has
allowed the ninth-most receiving yards to running backs, so McCoy
will offer their most unique challenge to date.
Projections:
Nick Foles: 190 pass yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
DeSean Jackson: 75 rec yds, 1 TD
Jason Avant: 45 rec yds
Brent Celek: 30 rec yds
Zach Ertz: 20 rec yds
LeSean McCoy: 110 rush yds, 2 TD, 30 rec yds
Passing Game Thoughts: With Josh
Freeman in Minnesota, rookie quarterback Mike Glennon is free
of one potential distraction. He should benefit from a bye week
after his initial performance that saw the N.C. State product
go 24-for-43 for 193 yards, one touchdown and two picks in a loss
to Arizona. Glennon may not be the savior for those fantasy owners
hoping to salvage the seasons for Vincent Jackson and Mike Williams,
but if the two disappointing wideouts are going to make some noise
this season, Philadelphia is the team they’ll do it against.
It has been a challenge – to say the least – for the
Eagles to defend the pass this season, as they rank tied for 29th
in passing yards per game surrendered. Only four teams have allowed
more touchdown passes and just six teams have fewer sacks than
Philly, who is sixth in FPTS/G ceded to quarterbacks and has allowed
opposing QBs to throw for at least 325 yards and two touchdowns
in four of their five games. The Eagles have given up more FPTS/G
to wide receivers than any other team, and it really isn’t
close – eight different receivers have collected at least
80 receiving yards against Philly, and five wideouts have had
games with multiple touchdowns.
Running Game Thoughts: Unlike his running back counterpart this
week, Doug Martin has not accomplished what was expected of him
this year. Though he’s ninth in the league in rushing yards,
Martin has only one touchdown and a measly 35 receiving yards,
which are the two main reasons he ranks only 17th among running
backs in FPTS/G. He does lead the league in rushes despite playing
in one less game than most other backs and he won’t be held
out of the end zone the rest of the year. The Eagles have been
somewhat pliable against backs this season, and I like Martin
to put up some numbers against them.
Philadelphia is 17th in the league in both rushing yards per game
allowed and YPC ceded. They are tied for 19th in rushing scores
given up, but also tied for 13th-most FPTS/G allowed to running
backs. Though the Eagles have yet to allow a running back to break
the 100-yard mark, of the four backs that have 12 or more carries
against them, three have scampered for at least 70 yards.
Projections:
Mike Glennon: 270 pass yds, 2 TD, 1 INT
Vincent Jackson: 105 rec yds, 2 TD
Mike Williams: 70 rec yds
Tiquan Underwood: 40 rec yds
Tom Crabtree: 30 rec yds
Doug Martin: 80 rush yds, 1 TD, 15 rec yds
Prediction: Eagles 27, Buccaneers 24
Rams at Texans
- (Smith)
Passing Game Thoughts: Sam Bradford
ranks 14th in FPTS/G among quarterbacks, though his passing numbers
are superior to numerous players ahead of him. Bradford is 13th
in passing yards, 18th in touchdowns, and tied for fifth with
10 touchdown throws. It’s just that he hasn’t run
the ball – only 26 yards on the season – enough to
pick up extra points that way. The former Heisman winner has talent
around him, but it’s young, and the Rams don’t have
a wideout among the top-30 in fantasy points. Tavon Austin has
not been the playmaker that many fantasy owners envisioned, but
that’s mostly the fault of offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer,
who regularly runs Austin on routes under 10 yards. The team and
fantasy owners are also waiting for tight end Jared Cook to re-emerge.
After a fantastic Week 1, he’s disappeared and Houston isn’t
a defense that passing games will get healthy against.
The Texans have held the opposition to 134 passing yards per game
this season. To put that in a bit of perspective, the next-lowest
number belongs to the 49ers, who are allowing 189 yards. Houston
may be 14th in touchdown throws allowed, but four of the seven
they’ve ceded came in Week 1, they haven’t given up
200 passing yards to any quarterback and only one team is allowing
fewer FPTS/G to signal callers. No team has allowed fewer FPTS/G
to wideouts than the Texans and though they’ve allowed the
11th-fewest FPTS/G to tight ends, they’ve also given up
fewer receptions to players at that position than any other team.
Running Game Thoughts: Until last week against the lowly Jaguars,
the Rams couldn’t run the ball to save their lives. The
team finally turned to rookie Zac Stacy, who powered his way to
78 yards on 14 carries, injecting some life into their ground
attack. He’ll almost certainly be getting the call again
this week and though Daryl Richardson will also get some work,
it’s Stacy who offers the most promise this week against
the Texans.
Houston was very good against the run in 2012, but this year?
Not so much. The Texans are tied for 27th in rushing yards per
game surrendered, rank 21st in YPC allowed, and tied for 19th
in rushing scores given up. They have ceded the 11th-most FPTS/G
to running backs, and allowed an 80+ yard rusher in three of their
last four contests.
Projections:
Sam Bradford: 205 pass yds, 2 TD, 1 INT
Chris Givens: 55 rec yds, 1 TD
Tavon Austin: 50 rec yds, 1 TD
Jared Cook: 45 rec yds
Austin Pettis: 35 rec yds
Zac Stacy: 40 rush yds, 1 TD
Daryl Richardson: 25 rush yds, 10 rec yds
Passing Game Thoughts: From a fan
burning Matt Schaub’s jersey to another showing up at his
home, things have gone from bad to scary for the embattled Houston
quarterback. Fantasy owners have likely cut their losses, as Schaub
ranks 22nd among his peers in FPTS/G, and he’s one of just
five quarterbacks who have more interceptions (nine) than touchdowns
(eight) on the season. He’s gotten the most publicity though,
because of the other four, one is a rookie (Geno Smith), two have
won Super Bowls (Eli Manning, Joe Flacco), and one plays in Arizona
(Carson Palmer). Schaub’s chances for success took a blow
with the news that Owen Daniels has been put on IR-designated
to return, but Garrett Graham is a capable back-up, and fantasy
owners scrambling for a tight end should pick him up. The disappointment
doesn’t end there, because even though Andre Johnson is
11th among wideouts in receiving yards, he’s 39th in FPTS/G
at his position because he has yet to find the end zone. Fortunately
for those same owners, a remedy may be on the way.
St. Louis may be in the middle of the pack in passing yards per
game allowed this season – 17th – but they’re
also tied for 26th in touchdown throws given up, tied for 24th
in sacks, and 28th in passer rating allowed. They’re tied
for 15th in FPTS/G allowed to quarterbacks and are 19th in FPTS/G
surrendered to tight ends, but wide receivers have hurt them.
The Rams have given up the seventh-most FPTS/G to players at that
position and at least one wideout has gained 90+ yards against
them in all but one contest this year.
Running Game Thoughts: The Texans may be running for 4.6 YPC as
a team, but the fantasy prowess of Arian Foster and Ben Tate has
been hurt by the fact that they’ve scored just one touchdown
on the ground – by Foster in Week 2. Foster is sixth in
the league in rushing yards and 15th in receiving yards among
running backs, but doesn’t have a run longer than 17 yards
and is only 12th in FPTS/G. Ben Tate is the more explosive back
and though I’d certainly make Foster a RB1, I’d also
think about using Tate as a flex due to the woefulness put on
display by the St. Louis rush defense this year.
Frankly put, the Rams have stunk against the run this season.
They are tied with their opponent this week for 27th in rushing
yards per game given up, are allowing 4.5 YPC, which is 25th in
the league, and are tied for 26th in touchdown runs allowed. Only
the Steelers have allowed more FPTS/G to running backs than the
Rams who have already let DeMarco Murray cruise to 175 yards and
Frank Gore amass 153 yards.
Projections:
Matt Schaub: 240 pass yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
Andre Johnson: 80 rec yds, 1 TD
DeAndre Hopkins: 65 rec yds
Garrett Graham: 55 rec yds
Keshawn Martin: 20 rec yds
Arian Foster: 105 rush yds, 1 TD, 20 rec yds
Ben Tate: 40 rush yds, 1 TD, 10 rec yds
Prediction: Texans 27, Rams 21
Raiders @ Chiefs
- (Caron)
Passing Game Thoughts: Quarterback
Terrelle Pryor came into his own as a passer in Week 5, throwing
for 221 yards while completing 18 of 23 passes against the Swiss
cheese Chargers defense. Although he rushed for a season-low 31
yards, the passing numbers are a welcome number for Pryor’s
fantasy owners who had mostly owned him for his ability to run
the ball. Pryor admitted being a bit nervous about taking a hit
but said he is going to be more comfortable this week against
the Chiefs.
Kansas City has played excellent defense all season and was stout
again a week ago - only beat on a short pass to running back Chris
Johnson that ended up going for a long touchdown. The Chiefs have
not allowed a 300-yard passer this season and it’s unlikely
that Pryor will break that number, however it is worth considering
that they have been somewhat susceptible to allowing rushing yardage
to quarterbacks. A week ago, they allowed Ryan Fitzpatrick to
rush for 50 yards and a touchdown on only six carries and the
only other “mobile” quarterback they have played this
season, Michael Vick, smoked them for 99 yards on the ground himself.
Pryor’s favorite target, receiver Denarius Moore, has played
well this season. If you look past an ugly Week 2 performance
where he didn’t catch a pass, Moore has caught at least
four passes every other week this season, including three touchdowns.
Moore is the kind of big play target that can go off at any time
and he will be up against cornerback Brandon Flowers who, despite
being respected, has struggled at times this season. Be careful
about getting too excited about the Raiders passing game this
week. Still, players like Pryor and Moore make for nice bye week
replacements in Week 6.
Running Game Thoughts: Darren McFadden, who missed last Sunday’s
win over the Chargers, has been practicing this week and is expected
to make his return to the field this Sunday. This is great news
for the Oakland running game, which was essentially fantasy irrelevant
a week ago. Rashad Jennings and Marcel Reece split carries and
combined for just 73 yards on the ground and 25 yards receiving.
Those who invested in Jennings in PPR formats were disappointed
as the back failed to catch a single pass and was not even targeted
on the day. McFadden’s return will mean a dynamic playmaker
in the backfield, but a player who has not performed to expectations.
Although he has rushed for two touchdowns which saved his fantasy
days in those games, McFadden has only ran for more than 50 yards
one time through the first five weeks of the season. Worse yet,
he hasn’t been as involved in the passing game as he was
in the past, catching only seven passes thus far in 2013. Still,
if there’s any running back who is going to do anything
on this offense, it’s going to be McFadden, who has averaged
almost 90 total yards per game against the Chiefs over the course
of his career.
This is a different Kansas City defense than what he has faced
in the past, however. The Chiefs held Chris Johnson to just 17
rushing yards a week ago and they have held opposing running games
under 90 yards on the ground in four of their five games this
season. Where they have been a little weak at times is against
running backs who can catch passes out of the backfield. They’ve
allowed 23 receptions for 206 yards and a touchdown against running
backs this season. Although McFadden can be a valuable asset as
a pass catcher, his lack of usage in that department is a concern,
especially against a good Chiefs defense, but he is still worth
fantasy consideration as a low-end RB2 or FLEX play.
Projections:
Terrelle Pryor: 150 pass yds, 1 TD, 1 INT, 70 rush yds, 1 TD
Darren McFadden: 60 rush yds, 25 rec yds
Denarius Moore: 60 rec yds, 1 TD
Rod Streater: 50 rec yds
Passing
Game Thoughts: The most surprising 5-0 team of the season
has to be the Kansas City Chiefs who have done well with new quarterback
Alex Smith behind center. Smith is averaging a respectable 240
yards passing per game, but what has been surprising is that he
has thrown the ball 34-plus times in every game this season. This
is a bit surprising considering he reached that number only three
times over his previous two seasons as the quarterback in San
Francisco. What has also been unexpected is Smith’s lack
of efficiency in the passing game in recent weeks. Over his past
three games, Smith has thrown only three touchdowns along with
three interceptions. He’s been known for a great quarterback
rating in recent seasons, but has a QB rating of just 83.7 in
2013, including an ugly 60.3 rating a week ago against the Titans
when he threw no touchdowns and an interception. Without that
efficiency, Smith’s fantasy value is very limited, making
him a low-end QB2 even against the Raiders who rank 23rd in the
league in fantasy points allowed to opposing quarterbacks.
Oakland has only forced an interception in one game this season,
so Smith is unlikely to hurt you if he does go in your lineup,
but the Chiefs passing game just isn’t moving the ball enough
to where anyone should be excited to have Smith in their lineup.
Receiver Dwayne Bowe has been one of the biggest fantasy disappointments
of the season. Although he has caught four passes in four of his
five games this season, the productivity just hasn’t been
there. Bowe and Smith just don’t seem to be on the same
page, as he has caught only 17 of the 31 passes that have gone
his way. Instead, it has been Donnie Avery who has been the most
productive receiver. Avery has 304 yards and a touchdown and is
coming off a 91-yard performance against the Titans a week ago.
Unfortunately Avery is nursing a shoulder injury and has had trouble
lifting his arm above his head. As a receiver, this could obviously
be a problem. Although he is expected to play, Avery is probably
not a fantasy option this week. Frankly, it’s best to stay
away from the Kansas City passing game until they start clicking
on a more consistent basis.
Running Game Thoughts: Running back Jamaal Charles got his first
100-yard rushing day of the season a week ago as he ran for 108
yards and a touchdown on 22 carries against a good Tennessee defense.
Charles has been a fantasy force in 2013 and is among the top
scoring players at the position in every format. Where he has
been particularly effective is as a receiver out of the backfield,
as he has already caught 28 receptions in five games. This number
puts Charles on pace for 90 catches on the season, a number that
would likely lead the league for running backs. Charles has had
15-plus fantasy points (standard scoring) in every game and has
touched the ball an average of 24 times per game. The team has
not opted to limit his workload, which is a great thing for fantasy
owners. Although he has been dealing with painful blisters on
his feet, Charles has continued to produce as the elite RB1 that
we expected him to be.
He is once again an obvious RB1 going into Week 6 as he’ll
be up against an Oakland run defense that is averaging allowing
86 rushing yards per game. They did hold the Chargers’ backs
to just 32 rushing yards a week ago but also allowed nine receptions
for 58 yards and a touchdown to Danny Woodhead, along with 21
receiving yards to Ronnie Brown. The Kansas City offense will
go through Charles one way or another, so get him in your lineup
as usual.
Projections:
Alex Smith: 180 pass yds, 1 TD, 25 rush yds
Jamaal Charles: 95 rush yds, 1 TD, 40 rec yds
Donnie Avery: 50 rec yds, 1 TD
Dwayne Bowe: 50 rec yds
Prediction: Chiefs 20, Raiders 17
Jaguars @ Broncos
- (Caron)
Passing Game Thoughts: Jacksonville
had their best offensive game of the season, scoring 20 points
on the road against a decent Rams defense in Week 5. This is a
great sign for an offense who had more punts coming into the week
than total points scored. The biggest change was the return of
2012 first round pick Justin Blackmon, who exploded for five catches,
136 yards and a touchdown. Blackmon did not look rusty at all
and embarrassed the St. Louis defense. His touchdown reception
was Blaine Gabbert’s first touchdown pass of the season.
The big downfall of the offense is No. 2 overall draft pick Luke
Joeckel was rolled up on and will miss the remainder of the season
with an injury. With the Jaguars shipping tackle Eugene Monroe
off to Baltimore earlier this year, they are now in trouble at
their most important position on the offensive line. Also lost
in the game was Gabbert, who left with a hamstring injury. Chad
Henne stepped in and went 7/13 for 89 yards and a touchdown to
Cecil Shorts. With Blackmon out for the first four games of the
season, Shorts has been targeted more than any receiver in the
league (61) this season. Although those targets haven’t
translated to elite fantasy production, it’s worth considering
that Shorts has been significantly more productive with Henne
behind center than he was with Gabbert. With Gabbert out, there
could be some big “garbage time” points for Shorts
and Blackmon in a game where the Jaguars (+26) are the biggest
underdog in NFL history. Henne himself is not likely to be a quality
fantasy option, but Blackmon and Shorts are both worth serious
fantasy consideration against the Broncos who have allowed over
200 yards to opposing wide receivers in four of their first five
games this season; including 352 yards and four touchdowns to
the Cowboys’ receivers a week ago.
Running Game Thoughts: Jacksonville running back Maurice Jones-Drew
had his best game of the season with 70 yards on 17 attempts against
the Rams front-seven. He’s still averaging only 42 yards
rushing per game, but showed at least some signs of life for the
first time this season against St. Louis. With Joeckel out, however,
the Jaguars could struggle to run the ball going forward; as if
they needed any help to do that. Jones-Drew is in for a particularly
tough matchup in Week 6 as he goes up against a Denver defense
that has been great against the run this season. Although they
have allowed a rushing touchdown in every game, Denver has been
excellent at containing the yardage given up to running backs.
Only once this season has a team (Philadelphia) rushed for more
than 60 yards against the Broncos. The rushing touchdowns allowed
by the Broncos do give Jones-Drew owners some optimism, but considering
how few points the Jaguars have scored this season, it seems unlikely
that Jones-Drew will continue the streak of a rushing touchdown
allowed in every game.
Projections:
Chad Henne: 250 pass yds, 2 TD, 2 INT
Maurice Jones-Drew: 50 rush yds, 10 rec yds
Cecil Shorts: 80 rec yds, 1 TD
Justin Blackmon: 60 rec yds, 1 TD
Passing
Game Thoughts: It was another unbelievable day for Peyton
Manning and the Broncos as they dropped 52 points against an overmatched
Dallas Cowboys defense. Manning did throw his first interception,
but was otherwise perfect, throwing for 414 yards; his second
400-yard day of the season. He has not thrown for fewer than 300
yards in a game. At this point, Manning has thrown 20 touchdown
passes and only one interception and is well on his way to another
league MVP trophy. If he stays anywhere near this productive,
he will also be the 2013 fantasy MVP. The breakout season for
tight end Julius Thomas continued as he caught nine passes for
129 yards and two touchdowns in his second multi-touchdown game.
Thomas has now scored six touchdowns in five games and has fully
established himself as a high-end TE1. Receivers Eric Decker and
Wes Welker continued their incredible production and are obvious
starters in all formats. With 50+ points scored, it’s crazy
to think that Demaryius Thomas didn’t score against the
Cowboys, but he did still catch five passes for 57 yards, so it
wasn’t a complete disaster. Thomas remains a high-end WR1
and especially against a Jacksonville defense that has already
allowed 12 passing touchdowns against them and has intercepted
only two passes. They were also embarrassed to the tune of four
passing touchdown day to Russell Wilson and the Seahawks, so Manning
could be in for another huge day. Get all of your Broncos in your
lineup against this bad Jaguars defense, but understand that the
team may go up multiple scores in the first half, which could
limit the overall production of the passing game as they try to
run out the clock in the second half.
Running Game Thoughts: Knowshon Moreno looked very good a week
ago, rushing for 93 yards and a touchdown while also catching
five passes for 57 yards in the shootout against the Cowboys.
Moreno could have had a second touchdown but was instructed by
Manning to not score on the Broncos’ final drive, in an
effort to run out the clock. Moreno doesn’t have a 100-yard
rushing day yet this season, but has gone over 90 total yards
in three of his five games, while also scoring four touchdowns.
He’s averaging over 5.0 yards per carry and has continued
to pass protect well for Manning, which keeps him on the field.
With the Broncos likely to win this game by multiple scores, Moreno
is a must-start in most leagues. Backup Ronnie Hillman was involved
in the passing game with four receptions for 42 yards against
the Cowboys, but was unsuccessful as a runner, achieving only
17 yards on seven carries. Hillman has 27 carries and seven catches
over his past three games and could see some additional action
in garbage time this week. Montee Ball is a complete afterthought
at this point and ran the ball only once on Sunday. Jacksonville
allowed 145 rushing yards to the Rams in Week 5 and opposing running
backs are now averaging 131 yards on the ground per game, along
with three total touchdowns.
Projections:
Peyton Manning: 335 pass yds, 3 TD
Knowshon Moreno: 70 rush yds, 2 TD, 20 rec yds
Ronnie Hillman: 50 rush yds, 25 rec yds
Demaryius Thomas: 100 rec yds, 1 TD
Wes Welker: 90 rec yds
Eric Decker: 45 rec yds, 1 TD
Julius Thomas: 40 rec yds, 1 TD
Prediction: Broncos 41, Jaguars 17
Titans @ Seahawks
- (Caron)
Passing Game Thoughts: Without quarterback
Jake Locker, who was playing surprisingly well prior to his injury,
the Tennessee passing game struggled to find consistency against
a good Kansas City defense. Backup QB Ryan Fitzpatrick’s
end numbers weren’t horrible as he went 21/41 for 247 yards,
a touchdown and two interceptions. He was also active in the running
game as he scrambled for 47 yards and a touchdown. Don’t
expect that to continue, however, as Fitzpatrick only ran for
more than 25 yards in one game in 2012. After back-to-back 100-yard
games, Nate Washington fell back to reality with only three receptions
for 30 yards. It could be that he and Fitzpatrick simply don’t
have the same chemistry as he did with Locker, but fantasy owners
should expect that Washington’s norm will be closer to what
he did in Week 5 than what he did in Weeks 3 and 4. Kendall Wright
remained consistent but not spectacular, catching six passes for
74 yards. He has now caught five or more passes in each of his
past four games and should be the team’s top target going
forward. Rookie Justin Hunter had caught a touchdown in back-to-back
games but was held off the scoreboard against the Chiefs. Hunter
is a raw talent who does have some upside down the road but is
not a serious fantasy consideration at this point.
Fitzpatrick and the passing game will have a tough matchup against
the Seattle defense that has been excellent against opposing quarterbacks
this season. They did struggled in Week 5, however, allowing Andrew
Luck to throw for 229 yards and two scores. Luck also did not
throw an interception, which marked the first time since Week
1 that the Seahawks defense failed to force multiple picks. With
Fitzpatrick being prone to turnovers, two-plus interceptions seems
somewhat likely.
Running Game Thoughts: Aside from a long touchdown reception,
Chris Johnson was awful in Week 5 as he rushed for just 17 yards
on 10 carries. Johnson is now averaging a career-low 3.1 yards
per carry despite the Titans making significant moves in the offseason
to improve his offensive line by signing Andy Levitre and drafting
Chance Warmack. Johnson has not rushed for a touchdown in 2013
and has just 38 yards on the ground on 25 carries over his past
two games. The artist formerly known as “CJ2K” has
turned into “CJ2YPC” and despite getting plenty of
touches, has only performed as a RB3 this season. On the bright
side, Johnson showed his speed and ability to make plays in the
open field on Sunday on the touchdown reception but his indecisiveness
and seeming lack of ability to find space against opposing front
sevens has killed his fantasy value thus far. Things don’t
get any easier for Johnson this week as he will be up against
a stout Seattle run defense that has only allowed one team’s
(Houston) running backs get over 100 yards on the ground so far
in 2013. The Seahawks have held Arian Foster, Frank Gore, DeAngelo
Williams and Trent Richardson without a touchdown on the ground;
although Foster did get a receiving touchdown. With Johnson really
not being involved much in the passing game, it could be another
tough day for the former 2000-yard rusher.
Projections:
Ryan Fitzpatrick: 160 pass yds, 1 TD, 2 INT
Chris Johnson: 50 rush yds, 10 rec yds
Jackie Battle: 25 rush yds, 1 TD
Kendall Wright: 60 rec yds, 1 TD
Nate Washington: 50 rec yds
Passing
Game Thoughts: After being one of the league’s most
efficient passers in the second-half of the 2012 season, Russell
Wilson has struggled in recent weeks. Since an impressive statistical
performance against the Panthers in Week 1, Wilson has completed
just 52 percent of his passes. He also has not gone over 210 yards
passing since Week 1 and other than a cakewalk game against the
Jaguars, has thrown only four touchdowns in his other four games
combined. Wilson has been effective as a runner. He ran for his
first 100-yard game against the Colts in Week 5. Although he hasn’t
scored a touchdown, his 179 rushing yards over his past two games
have done a good enough job of masking his poor passing outputs.
Receiver Sidney Rice has now caught only one pass in each of his
past two games and is back to being a non-factor in fantasy circles.
Meanwhile, Golden Tate and Doug Baldwin have become more active
in their past two games, catching eight passes each. Tate also
caught his first touchdown of the season a week ago against the
Colts.
Tennessee has continued to play well against opposing quarterbacks
as they held Alex Smith without a touchdown and intercepted a
pass in Week 5. The Titans have only allowed multiple touchdowns
to an opposing quarterback once this season and have intercepted
as many passes (six) as they have allowed passing touchdowns.
Tennessee allowed only eight receptions to opposing wide receivers
in Week 5 and have not allowed an opposing wide receiver to score
a touchdown since Week 2. Wilson’s running ability makes
him a viable fantasy option most weeks, but there’s no denying
that he and his receivers are not on the same page right now.
Don’t expect too much production in the passing game until
they clear that up making Wilson is a low-end QB1 for the time
being.
Running Game Thoughts: Marshawn Lynch was effective, rushing
for 102 yards on 17 carries in a loss to the Colts. It was Lynch’s
first 100-yard rushing day of the season, although he had hit
98 yards twice already. He is averaging 82 yards per game and
has scored four total touchdowns in five games. With Robert Turbin
getting fewer than five carries again this past week, Lynch continues
to get the lion’s share of the snaps and touches for the
Seahawks. Including his playoff run, Lynch has taken 16 or more
carries in seven straight games, and that stretch would likely
be longer if not for some blowout wins for the Seahawks back in
2012 when Lynch was sat down early. Tennessee struggled to slow
down Jamaal Charles and opposing teams’ running backs are
now averaging over 135 total yards per game against the Titans
defense. While they have only allowed three total touchdowns to
opposing running backs on the year, it’s worth considering
that they’ve gone against three subpar running games in
the Steelers, Chargers and Jets. The Titans have allowed 12 or
more fantasy points (standard scoring) to opposing teams’
running backs in 19 of their past 21 games over the past two seasons.
Lynch himself has rushed for 98 or more rushing yards in six of
his past seven regular season home games and there’s a good
chance he will add to that against Tennessee.
Projections:
Russell Wilson: 160 pass yds, 1 TD, 1 INT, 40 rush yds
Marshawn Lynch: 115 rush yds, 2 TD, 10 rec yds
Golden Tate: 50 rec yds, 1 TD
Doug Baldwin: 40 rec yds
Sidney Rice: 30 rec yds
Prediction: Seahawks 24, Titans 20
Cardinals @ 49ers
- (Caron)
Passing Game Thoughts: Things looked
great at the beginning of the year for the Arizona passing game
as Carson Palmer threw for 327 yards and two touchdowns, but things
have been ugly since then. Palmer has only thrown three touchdown
passes over his past four games while tossing eight interceptions
over that span. Worse yet, he hasn’t even reached the 250-yard
mark since Week 1. Inaccuracy has been an issue, but the offensive
line problems that have plagued this team in recent seasons have
continued for the Cardinals in 2013; leading to an abnormally
high number of passes thrown under duress. With ugly numbers from
Palmer, receiver Larry Fitzgerald has struggled to find consistency
as well. Since his 80-yard, two-touchdown performance in Week
1, Fitzgerald has caught only 16 passes for 208 yards and a touchdown
in his past four contests. On the upswing is receiver Michael
Floyd who made plenty of “sleeper” lists coming into
the season. Although he hasn’t caught a touchdown yet in
2013, Floyd leads the team with 301 yards receiving. It’s
hard to bench Fitzgerald, but Floyd should not be much of a fantasy
consideration this week as the Cardinals go up against a 49ers
defense that has allowed the second-fewest amount of fantasy points
to opposing wide receivers this season. San Francisco has not
allowed an opposing wide receiver to catch a touchdown against
them since Week 1.
Running Game Thoughts: The uninspiring running performances
from Rashard Mendenhall continued in Week 6 as he rushed for just
43 yards on a season-high 17 carries. Although he did get into
the end zone, it was Mendenhall’s third straight game with
fewer than 50 yards on the ground and he has not yet gone over
70 on the year. The “spark” in the Cardinals running
game, if there has been one, has come from backup Andre Ellington
who rushed for 52 yards on seven carries in Week 5, while also
catching four passes for 31 yards. Ellington has averaged 6.7
yards per carry while Mendenhall isn’t even at half that
number, rushing for 3.2 yards per carry this season. Fantasy owners
would love to see Ellington more involved in the offense, but
he is only getting about 1/3 the carries of Mendenhall.
Neither Mendenhall or Ellington are a particularly exciting matchup
this week as they go up against a 49ers defense that has been
one of the best against the run in recent seasons. They haven’t
been quite as good against running backs this season as they have
conceded double-digit fantasy points (standard scoring) to the
position in four of their first five games. They have not been
nearly as good against teams that struggle to run the ball, such
as the Rams and Packers, who combined for 66 yards rushing in
their games against the 49ers. Given the Cardinals’ offensive
line struggles and Mendenhall’s lack of explosion, it’s
safe to assume that the San Francisco defense will be able to
contain the Arizona running game.
Projections:
Carson Palmer: 235 pass yds, 1 TD, 2 INT
Rashard Mendenhall: 40 rush yds, 10 rec yds
Andre Ellington: 30 rush yds, 35 rec yds
Michael Floyd: 70 rec yds
Larry Fitzgerald: 60 rec yds, 1 TD
Passing
Game Thoughts: The astonishingly unproductive fantasy season
for San Francisco quarterback Colin Kaepernick continued in Week
5 as the third-year QB threw for 113 yards and one touchdown against
the Texans. It’s fair to say that the 49ers were up early
and stayed multiple scores ahead throughout the entire game, but
the fact that Kaepernick was only involved on seven of San Francisco’s
34 points is concerning for fantasy owners. As one of the breakout
players in 2012, Kaepernick has averaged less than eight fantasy
points per game over his past four contests. His passing numbers
being low isn’t much of a surprise, but his lack of rushing
yardage has been baffling. Kaepernick has cracked 25 yards on
the ground only once this season after being one of the most productive
runners in the league a season ago. This kind of production would
normally mean that player is not even worth owning in fantasy,
but Kaepernick does have the upside that makes him hard to cut.
He’s probably a player who should be on fantasy owners’
benches this week, however, as he goes up against an Arizona secondary
that has intercepted five passes and allowed only one passing
touchdown over their past two games. Anquan Boldin is the only
wide receiver in this offense that is worth any fantasy consideration,
although he has been down more than he has been up. Tight end
Vernon Davis has also been inconsistent, but leads the team with
four touchdown receptions and has been in the end zone in back-to-back
weeks. If there has been a hole in the Cardinals pass defense,
it has been in their attempts to slow down opposing tight ends.
They’ve allowed four touchdowns and the fourth-most fantasy
total points to the position on the year, which should make Davis
a solid TE1 this week.
Running Game Thoughts: With double digit fantasy points (standard
scoring) in four of his first five games this season, Frank Gore
has made fantasy owners who took a chance on him very happy. Although
he has only cracked 100 yards on the ground once so far, he has
been above 80 yards in each of his past three games, including
an 81-yard day against the Texans this past week where he also
scored a touchdown. Gore’s goal line touches have been vultured
as Kendall Hunter and Anthony Dixon have scored a combined four
touchdowns on the year. Neither Hunter nor Dixon are of much fantasy
value at the moment as Gore has monopolized the vast majority
of the team’s running back touches; and rightfully so as
he has averaged an impressive 6.6 yards per carry over his past
three games. San Francisco’s offensive line continues to
block well in the running game and there’s no reason to
believe that Gore won’t be worth starting nearly every week
as a high-end RB2.
He does have his work cut out for him this week, though, as he
and the 49ers will host an Arizona team that is one of only three
teams to have not allowed a touchdown to an opposing running back
yet this season. They are, however, allowing total 127 yards per
game to the position, which could still mean a relatively productive
day for Gore and the 49ers even if they don’t get into the
end zone.
Projections:
Colin Kaepernick: 180 pass yds, 2 TD, 1 INT, 30 rush yds
Frank Gore: 85 rush yds, 10 rec yds
Kendall Hunter: 20 rush yds
Anquan Boldin: 50 rec yds, 1 TD
Vernon Davis: 60 rec yds, 1 TD
Prediction: 49ers 20, Cardinals 16
Colts @ Chargers
- (Caron)
Passing Game Thoughts: Indianapolis
quarterback Andrew Luck’s progression continued in Week
5 when the second-year phenom threw for 229 yards and two scores
without an interception against a very good Seattle Seahawks defense.
The Seahawks had forced seven interceptions in their previous
three games, but Luck was smart with the football and his ability
to avoid mistakes led to a Colts win. After throwing 18 interceptions
in his rookie season, Luck is now on pace to throw just six picks
in 2013, while still staying on par with the total touchdown numbers
he produced a season ago. While he’s not on the level of
a Peyton Manning at the moment, Luck has been a very valuable
fantasy asset, particularly as a runner where he has already contributed
135 yards and two scores. Those numbers put him on pace for 432
yards and six touchdowns as a runner; which could make him one
of the most valuable QB’s down the stretch. Receiver T.Y.
Hilton finally got into the end zone and broke a two game drought
of ugly fantasy performances with a five-catch, 140-yard, two-touchdown
performance against the elite Seahawks secondary that had only
allowed one other touchdown to a receiver in their four games
prior to meeting the Colts. Reggie Wayne continues to be one of
the most consistent WR2 fantasy options in the game, particularly
in PPR formats, as he is on pace for his fourth 90-plus catch
season over the past five years. Wayne hasn’t been much
of a touchdown machine in recent years but his consistency makes
him an obvious start for most teams, especially in PPR formats.
Unfortunately tight end Coby Fleener has been the opposite of
Wayne this season and his inconsistency has caused headaches for
fantasy owners. Despite Dwayne Allen being injured for most of
the season, Fleener has checked in with one or zero fantasy points
(standard scoring) in three of his five games this season.
While he has scored a touchdown and been over 65 yards in the
other two games, it’s hard to trust Fleener even as he and
the Colts go up against a San Diego defense that has been horrendous
at stopping opposing passing games this season. The Chargers have
allowed 18 or more fantasy points to the opposing quarterback
in every game they have played this season...and that includes
games against Matt Schaub, Jake Locker and Terrelle Pryor. Andrew
Luck is a lock QB1 this week with Wayne being a high-end WR2.
Both T.Y. Hilton and Coby Fleener make for high risk / high reward
options for those who might need a big game to have a chance to
win their fantasy matchup.
Running Game Thoughts: When the Colts acquired running back
Trent Richardson from the Browns a few weeks back, fantasy owners
were enthralled with the possibility of the Indianapolis offense
having two of the elite young players in their backfield in Richardson
and Luck. While Luck has continued to play well, Richardson has
largely been a disappointment in his short run in Indianapolis.
Richardson is averaging fewer than 3.0 yards per carry as a member
of the Colts and although he has scored two touchdowns, the fact
that former fantasy bust Donald Brown has significantly out-produced
him on a per-carry basis has to be a concern. There is no worry
that Brown is going to take over as the Colts lead back, but Richardson’s
lack of production might be an indication that the Browns made
the right move in trading their former first round pick.
Richardson and the Colts will have an interesting matchup against
a Chargers defense that is conceding nearly 130 total yards per
game to opposing running backs. While this number is encouraging
to Richardson owners, the downside is that where Richardson has
made his money over the first two years of his career is at the
goal line...and the Chargers haven’t allowed a single running
back to score a touchdown against them this season. It’s
going to be tough to bench your first round pick and Richardson
should still put up enough points to be fantasy relevant in most
formats, the truth is that it may be time that we lower our expectations
for him. If he suddenly explodes and shows the burst and strength
that made him a high-end first round NFL draft pick a season ago,
there might be something to be excited about. But if he fails
to get to 3.0 yards per carry again, Richardson owners might be
in for a long, frustrating end to the season.
Projections:
Andrew Luck: 290 pass yds, 2 TD, 30 rush yds
Trent Richardson: 60 rush yds, 1 TD, 15 rec yds
T.Y. Hilton: 110 rec yds, 1 TD
Reggie Wayne: 80 rec yds, 1 TD
Coby Fleener: 40 rec yds
Passing
Game Thoughts: It was another huge day through the air
for quarterback Philip Rivers who hit the 400-yard passing mark
for the third time in just five games this season. With the running
game all but non-existent, Rivers has had to throw the ball a
ton in 2013 and his fantasy owners have loved every minute it.
He is currently the No. 4 fantasy quarterback in the league and
has out-produced even the wildest preseason expectations with
a bottom five group of receivers. Although he threw multiple interceptions,
three in fact, for the first time this season a week ago in Oakland,
Rivers still put in a solid, 18-point fantasy day that made him
a QB1. He has spread the ball out to a number of different targets,
but it has been tight end Antonio Gates who has joined Rivers
in a career resurgence. Gates himself currently sits as the No.
4 tight end in fantasy football and he is on pace for over 100
catches on the year.
As good as things have been for Rivers and Gates, one has to
assume that the numbers will eventually level off and that could
start to happen this week as the Chargers host an Colts defense
that has allowed just two touchdowns to opposing quarterbacks
in their past three games combined. During that span, they have
also forced five interceptions and caused two quarterback fumbles.
Other than allowing Russell Wilson to rush for over 100 yards,
Indianapolis has been excellent against opposing QB’s as
of late. They’ve allowed just 18 total “passing”
fantasy points to the position over their past three games and
Philip Rivers isn’t much of a threat to run the ball. With
the Colts defense playing as well as it has been and the San Diego
passing game playing as well as it has, it’s likely that
these two units will meet somewhere in the middle, with Rivers
and the Chargers turning in a decent but not great fantasy day.
Running Game Thoughts: As good as San Diego’s passing
game has been, their rushing attack has been in hiding all year.
Running back Ryan Mathews has averaged less than 3.5 yards per
carry and hasn’t scored a touchdown on the ground while
barely been involved in the passing game. Add in a concussion
that knocked him out of his Week 5 game against the Raiders and
Mathews has barely been a low-end FLEX option at best this season.
On the other hand, it has been running back Danny Woodhead that
has broken out over his past two games, contributing 30 fantasy
points (standard scoring) during that stretch. Where he has really
showed up, however, is in the receiving game. Woodhead is on pace
for 99 receptions and has caught three touchdowns over the past
two games. Woodhead has been a decent RB2 in standard scoring
leagues as of late, but he is bordering on RB1 production in PPR
formats. Although his rushing isn’t anything to write home
about, if Woodhead is still somehow available in your league,
it’s time to snatch him up. Mathews is not a guarantee to
play on Monday night due to his concussion symptoms and even if
he does, Woodhead has been on the field significantly more often
this season, checking in on 45 percent of the Chargers’
offensive plays, while Mathews has played just 31 percent of the
time. If Mathews does not play, Woodhead should be on the field
for roughly 2/3 of the team’s offensive plays, while Ronnie
Brown will likely see an expanded role as the complementary back.
Whoever is in the backfield for the Chargers will be up against
the Colts defense that has allowed double-digit fantasy points
(standard scoring) to opposing teams’ running backs in four
of their five games this season. The only team that has failed
to get to double digit fantasy points was the hapless Jaguars,
so it seems very possible that the streak will continue in Week
6. Unfortunately for Woodhead owners, Indianapolis has actually
done a good job of shutting down opposing running backs in the
passing game. They have allowed the third-fewest yards and receptions
to the position on the year, having allowed a season high of just
35 yards receiving to the 49ers’ backs in Week 3. While
there is some concern about how well the Indianapolis linebackers
have played in coverage against running backs, the truth is that
the Colts have had a light schedule when it comes to playing running
backs who catch passes. Woodhead is a must start in PPR formats
and is even a FLEX consideration for standard scoring leagues.
Sit Mathews and Brown this week, however, as there just won’t
be enough snaps for either of them to make much of a fantasy impact.
Projections:
Philip Rivers: 290 pass yds, 2 TD, 2 INT
Danny Woodhead: 40 rush yds, 60 rec yds, 1 TD
Ryan Mathews: 20 rush yds, 15 rec yds
Ronnie Brown: 25 rush yds, 10 rec yds
Keenan Allen: 60 rec yds
Vincent Brown: 40 rec yds
Eddie Royal: 30 rec yds
Antonio Gates: 50 rec yds, 1 TD
Prediction: Colts 27, Chargers 23
Bengals at Bills
- (Thorne)
Passing Game Thoughts: Over the
past two weeks quarterback Andy Dalton has been trending in the
wrong direction despite the Bengals beating New England in their
most recent contest. Over that span he’s failed to gain
215 yards through the air, has thrown two touchdowns with no interceptions,
and has been both good (74 percent) and bad (54 percent) in completion
percentage. Cincinnati has surrendered six sacks and has not had
a passing play go for 30 or more yards from scrimmage. Adding
to the confusion is their game results, losing to Cleveland and
their backup quarterback and then beating New England with a future
Hall of Famer under center. These numbers are generally worse
than Dalton's season averages of 231 yards per game and 65.1 percent
completions, with a total of five touchdowns, five interceptions,
and 11 sacks through five games. Since the opening game, star
wide receiver A.J. Green has recorded between 41 and 61 yards
per game and has recorded only one touchdown in the past four
games.
The 2013 Bills are a far better team than they were last year
according to most statistics, but they’re still giving up
yards and points despite being near the top of the league in sacks
and leading in interceptions. Without creating turnovers Buffalo
is fairly beatable; despite giving up less than 200 passing yards
to Cleveland they didn’t force an interception and the game
resulted in a loss, but against Baltimore they recorded five interceptions
and despite surrendering almost 350 passing yards they still were
able to pull out a win. Dalton tends to not make many mistakes,
but if his recent struggles continue and pressure is able to get
to him as it has on occasion this season, he may open the door
for Buffalo to make the game much closer than it is expected to
be.
Running Game Thoughts: The beautiful aspect of the Bengals rushing
attack is the very thing that drives fantasy owners crazy, that
there are two capable running backs who both get touches all over
the field and can each outperform the other on any given Sunday.
Someone is going to get yards, someone is going to score, and
someone is going to be involved in the passing game, but whether
it is BenJarvus Green-Ellis or Giovani Bernard won’t be
determined until the game is underway. On the year, they each
have exactly 209 rushing yards but their numbers of carries vary
greatly, resulting in a 2.9 yards per carry for Green-Ellis and
4.6 for the rookie Bernard. The younger player has better burst
and is more agile but he’s still subject to growing pains
that the veteran no longer has to deal with, as evidenced by Bernard's
late-game fumble last weekend against New England. Together they’ve
given the Bengals 100 yards per game and have scored five touchdowns
on the ground in addition to their contributions in the passing
game, so while it’s hard to decide between the two running
backs, it’s equally as hard to leave them on the bench.
Projections:
Andy Dalton: 220 pass yds, 1 TD
BenJarvus Green-Ellis: 60 rush yds, 20 rec yds
Giovani Bernard: 50 rush yds, 40 rec yds
A.J. Green: 70 rec yds, 1 TD
Passing
Game Thoughts: Thad Lewis is a second-year quarterback
recently promoted from the practice squad. He was acquired last
year toward the end of his rookie season after he played for the
Browns against the Steelers, completing 22 of 32 pass attempts
for 204 yards, one touchdown and one interception. Cleveland lost
the game 10-24. Now in Buffalo he’s the starter after the
top two quarterbacks were injured and as the organization tries
to be cautious with their players and not rush them back from
injury. Frankly, his lone 2012 performance would be an improvement
on what the Bills have been able to average so far in passing
production, so short of a debut that rivals that of Bryan Hoyer
(Cleveland's backup quarterback), it’s hard to imagine the
game being anything but painful.
Making matters even worse is that the Bengals have a passing
defense just barely outside the top ten and they rank even better
in terms of yards per attempt. Their sack and interception numbers
are roughly average, but if teams aren’t able to move the
ball well, there isn’t as much need to force those kinds
of big plays. Against New England last week they held Tom Brady
to under 50 percent passing, fewer than 200 yards, and forced
an interception without allowing a touchdown, thus breaking his
streak of 52 games with a passing touchdown. Nearly three and
a half seasons passed before anyone was able to prevent Brady
from throwing a touchdown pass. If the Bengals play at that level
again this week, the Buffalo offensive numbers should be substantially
worse than what the Patriots were able to muster.
Running Game Thoughts: At its core, Buffalo is a running team;
C.J. Spiller and Fred Jackson are each quality running backs capable
of starting for most NFL teams and they so happen to be sharing
a backfield. So far, Coach Marrone has been able to use them well
to complement each other in the ground attack, with each recording
around 300 yards, though Jackson does have a 4-1 touchdown advantage.
The offensive line isn’t stellar but is adequate, giving
the two runners enough space to make plays or grind out yards
as needed. As a team, the Bills average nearly 153 rushing yards
per game, third best in the league, though a portion of that is
usually contributed by quarterback E.J. Manuel. The best chance
for Buffalo this week will be to lean on the running game and
hope the offensive line is able to get a reasonable push against
the front four of Cincinnati. Taking the ball out of the hands
of Lewis and giving more touches to the two-headed running back
monster is an obvious game plan. Doing so will open up opportunities
on the backend, but it all starts on the ground.
More bad news for Buffalo, and again it comes from the Bengals.
Cincinnati is a top ten rushing defense that surrenders fewer
than 100 yards per game, and only three teams in the NFL have
given up fewer rushing touchdowns than they have, one of which
has played one fewer games because of a bye week. In addition
to shutting down Brady, they were able to limit the Patriots to
only 82 rush yds; after factoring in sacks, that brings the grand
total to less than 250 yards for the entire day. The one area
where Buffalo is superior to New England is in the running game,
so there’s a sliver of hope that the Bills will be able
to get something going on the ground. But the Bengals will give
them all they can handle, and that may end up being too much to
account for, given that the quarterback has no more than four
quarters of real-game experience at the professional level. Without
a passing threat, a rushing attack is much easier to stop.
Projections:
Thaddeus Lewis: 130 pass yds, 1 INT
C.J. Spiller: 40 rush yds / 20 rec yds
Fred Jackson: 40 rush yds / 10 rec yds
Steve Johnson: 40 rec yds
Prediction: Bengals 24, Bills 9
Steelers at Jets
- (Thorne)
Passing Game Thoughts: In most every
way imaginable, the success of these two teams and their players
feels backwards based on recent history. The Steelers have great
players and play well; the Jets have moderate talent and play
poorly. Usually, but not in 2013. One of the few constants has
been Ben Roethlisberger, who on the season is around his career
averages except for his TD-INT ratio, which is usually around
7-4 but is currently 5-5. The core issue appears to be the offensive
line, and coming out of the bye week, there will be some new faces
in some of those places. It looks like Mike Adams has lost his
starting spot to Kelvin Beachum, and recently-acquired Levi Brown
will certainly factor into the mix at left tackle. Guard Ramon
Foster is nursing a pectoral injury, and if he isn’t available,
Brown would be the obvious replacement. With those struggles hopefully
worked out, Pittsburgh will try to improve on their ninth overall
passing offense (283 yards per game) and try to convert some of
those yards into points, which has been the issue all season long.
Only three teams have scored fewer passing touchdowns than the
Steelers.
In terms of passing defense, the Jets are a touch outside of
the top ten, so for a Pittsburgh team looking for a bounce back,
this may not be the most ideal opponent. The strength of the Jets
is in their defensive line, which has recorded 16 sacks and preyed
on less-than-stellar offensive lines. Their pass coverage has
recorded only one interception and has allowed nine touchdowns,
so if the Steelers can improve on their sixth-worst offensive
sack numbers, Roethlisberger should start to see better success
through the air. Getting tight end Heath Miller back to full strength
will help in all phases of the passing game; he’s the favorite
target and one of the best security blankets in the league. His
presence will help open up the field for wide receiver Antonio
Brown, who leads the team with 412 receiving yards this season.
Many teams have had difficulty moving the ball against New York
because of their defensive front seven, and weakness along the
Pittsburgh offensive line doesn’t foreshadow overwhelming
success, but there will be moments where the Jets get beaten by
a good quarterback making a big play. Unfortunately there just
aren’t many of those plays to go around.
Running Game Thoughts: This is the area in which the game will
be decided, if it hasn’t been already. The Steelers have
the second worst rushing attack in the league and the Jets have
the second best rushing defense. Pittsburgh has faced four teams
with good front sevens, but there has been no push at all from
the offensive line. With Le’Veon Bell back from injury,
there is reason to be cautiously optimistic after his debut of
57 yards and two touchdowns against the Vikings. Prior to those
scores, the Steelers had yet to find the end zone on the ground.
Sorting out some of the O-line issues, establishing some consistency
in the passing game, and having their rookie sensation running
back on the field can only help improve the rushing attack, but
considering where they are now, it’s almost impossible for
those changes to make them any worse. Moderate steps in the right
direction are all that can be expected from the Pittsburgh ground
game.
Three yards per attempt. That’s all that opponents have
been able to eke out against the New York defense. That even includes
a rush of 59 yards, without which the yards per attempt average
drops to just over 2.5. It’s not impossible to run against
the Jets, but only one of five teams has broken 100 yards against
them, and that included the season long of 59. They’re hard
to move, the linebackers fill gaps well, and in the event a runner
can make it through the front seven, the secondary comes up with
big hits and tends to stuff the ball carrier in his tracks. The
Steelers will need to drastically improve on their meager 58 yards
per game and 3.2 yards per carry if they’re going to see
any success on Sunday, but based on their performances prior to
the bye week, there isn’t much room for optimism in Pittsburgh.
Projections:
Ben Roethlisberger: 250 pass yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
Le’Veon
Bell: 50 rush yds
Antonio Brown: 60 rec yds
Passing
Game Thoughts: If he isn’t already, quarterback Geno
Smith should be considered the offensive rookie of the year. The
majority of the year is relative monotony punctuated by big game-changing
moments, and for a rookie it is their upside and not their averages
on which they should be judged. For Smith those high points are
some of the best in the league, rookie or not. Fourth-quarter
drives in Weeks 1, 3, and 5 either led to a comeback or broke
a tie that would not be relinquished. In those three games, the
final points were scored by the Jets. Through five weeks he has
three game-winning drives, on pace to tie or surpass Andrew Luck’s
total from last year. Turnovers have been a problem, but he’s
led a New York passing offense that ranks near the middle in most
other categories. Even on an off day, Smith is good for about
200 yards, and if he can limit his turnovers, he generally finds
a way to get one of his receivers into the end zone. He’s
thrown more touchdowns this season than two Super Bowl–winning
quarterbacks and also two of the best duel-threat quarterbacks
from last season. The future looks good for the Jets, and the
present isn’t too shabby either.
Only one team in the NFL has yet to record an interception, Pittsburgh,
a far cry from the perceptions that usually surround their defense.
The yardage against is still impressive though, at 199 yards per
game, good enough for a top five ranking. Opponents have been
limited to 60 percent completions on the year, suggesting that
they’re giving up those yards on mid- to short-range passes
and not through numerous long balls. Typically they force you
to make a mistake and then capitalize on that, but without turnovers,
they aren’t able to get the offense back onto the field
in good scoring position, and that eventually puts more pressure
on the defense when they’re not playing with a big lead.
Facing off against Smith should help Pittsburgh, as most rookies
aren’t yet consistent enough to methodically move the ball
down the field with small chunks of yards at a time. If the Steelers
are finally able to force a turnover, the effect could be exponential,
as it ratchets up the pressure on the rookie quarterback and leads
him to make additional mistakes.
Running Game Thoughts: Despite scoring only two rushing touchdowns,
the Jets have one of the best running attacks in the league with
122 yards per game. The majority of that production has come from
running back Bilal Powell, who is now the starter after a position
battle with Chris Ivory. The other major contributor has been
Smith, who has used improvised runs and scrambles to extend drives,
make plays, and pick up yards at critical moments. Those two account
for both of New York's rushing touchdowns and 436 of the team's
610 total yards. Much like Pittsburgh, success in the rushing
game can be attributed to the offensive line, where the Steelers
are poor runners because of it and the Jets have been successful
largely because of the front five. Another good game on the ground
will make it difficult for the New York O-line to fly under the
radar for much longer, but for now they’re one of the best
units that no one’s talking about.
In addition to not recording an interception, Pittsburgh also
hasn't recovered any fumbles either. As a team, the Steelers have
not forced a turnover in four games, nor have they managed to
win any of those four games. That isn’t a coincidence. While
the rookie quarterback is likely to make a mistake at some point,
the major area of concern for the Pittsburgh defense should be
the running game. The Steelers have allowed six rushing touchdowns
in four games and surrendered more than 120 yards per game on
the ground at a respectable average of 3.8 yards per carry. Opponents
have needed to “ground and pound” to find scoring
opportunities against the Steelers, but that is exactly what the
Jets want to do on a weekly basis. Gang Green seems to finally
be getting back to their traditional offense, but if Pittsburg
can get back to their traditional Steel Curtain defense, even
the best of rushing attacks would be stymied. Without turnovers
though, it’s hard to imagine the 25th best rush defense
in the league being able to stand up to the repeated assault that
is likely in store for Sunday.
Projections:
Geno Smith: 210 pass yds, 1 TD, 1 INT / 40 rush yds
Bilal Powell: 90 rush yds / 20 rec yds
Stephen Hill: 50 rec yds
Prediction: Jets 19, Steelers 13
Saints at Patriots
- (Thorne)
Passing Game Thoughts: On rare occasions,
the best quarterback playing in Foxboro may not be with the home
team. Drew Brees may not be better than Tom Brady, but if he’s
not, it’s at least open to discussion; in terms of the 2013
season, it’s hard to argue against what Brees and the Saints
have done so far. He’s averaging over 325 yards per game
with 12 touchdowns on the year, both of which are next to best
in the league. Four interceptions and 13 sacks are both worse
than what is normal for the Saints quarterback, but considering
the struggles the franchise experienced last year, it’s
hard to fault them for a little hiccup at the beginning of the
year. In addition to a top-flight quarterback, New Orleans boasts
the best receiver in the game (593 yds and six TDs on 37 rec)
and he just so happens to be a tight end. Jimmy Graham continues
to redefine the position beyond what he and others have already
put into motion. His basketball background gives him a clear advantage
in jump ball situations, and his time on the hard court allowed
him to perfect total body control. Simply put, there’s not
a receiver of any type in the game who can do what he can, and
Brees continues to exploit the dramatic mismatch that he presents.
With respect to yardage, the Patriots are roughly average for
the league, but most everywhere else their pass defense is near
the top of the rankings. They’re one of only eight teams
that can boast of both six interceptions and 13 sacks and while
they may not be elite in either area, that combination and balance
appears to put them in elite company. Through five games they’ve
faced only one top passing team (Atlanta), so their statistics
may be a bit overinflated, but the most significant note comes
from the injury report, as defensive tackle Tommy Kelly has been
unable to participate in practice the week after fellow lineman
Vince Wilfork was already declared out for the season. The ability
to rush the quarterback and create pressure has been essential
to what the Patriots have been able to do, so Kelly and Wilfork's
absence will be felt at every level of the defense. On the backend,
Aqib Talib is establishing himself as one of the best cornerbacks
in the league, but he’ll have his hands full matched up
with whomever he draws from New Orleans—though reports have
suggested he’ll see a lot of time across from Graham. In
what is likely to be an aerial shootout, any weakness will almost
certainly be exploited, so even if Talib is able to shutdown the
stellar tight end, the Patriots will have a tough time getting
to Brees, who will have plenty of other receiving options to target.
Running Game Thoughts: Where most teams run to establish the
pass, things work a little differently in New Orleans. The short
passing game is almost like most teams’ rushing attack and
is equally effective in opening up the deep ball as well as picking
up small bits of yardage as the team drives down the field. The
Saints do run the ball though, and while the yardage totals or
averages aren’t particularly impressive, they’re used
mostly as an additional change of pace or in short-yardage situations.
Although they’re not carrying the ball frequently, the two
top running backs are still extremely involved in the passing
game and are the second and fourth most active receivers on the
team. Despite all the exceptions and qualifications made about
the running game, they still rush for over 77 yards per game and
have scored two touchdowns. In itself that isn’t that big
of a deal, but on top of every other challenge the Saints present,
it’s just one more weapon in their already stocked arsenal.
Against the rush New England isn’t particularly stellar,
and the losses at defensive tackle certainly won’t help
any. They already give up over 116 yards per game on the ground
and a 4.1 rushing average, both of which are in the lower half
of the league. Though the Saints don’t lean heavily on the
run, the handful of attempts they do make will likely see more
success than normal against the injured Patriots front seven.
If Kelly isn’t able to go or isn’t anywhere near full
strength on Sunday, any short-yardage situations will heavily
favor the Saints. The rest of the game will closely resemble a
seven-on-seven practice drill with quarterbacks and receivers
taking over the game and the rushing attack likely being marginalized.
Projections:
Drew Brees: 450 pass yds, 4 TDs
Pierre Thomas: 30 rush yds / 40 rec yds
Darren Sproles: 20 rush yds / 60 rec yds, 1 TD
Jimmy Graham: 130 rec yds, 2 TDs
Passing
Game Thoughts: Tom Brady has never beaten Drew Brees as
a pro, losing twice to him as a Charger and once as a Saint. If
the Patriots are going to send Brees back to New Orleans without
a victory, Brady is likely going to need his best game of the
season. Through five games New England is averaging only 227 yards
per game while recording seven touchdowns and three interceptions,
all of which are a far cry from the Tom Brady of years past. It’s
easy to point to the receivers as the issue, and to an extent
that’s fair, but most recently against the Bengals, wide
receiver Danny Amendola was active once again and New England
failed to score a touchdown, losing the game 6-13. This week tight
end Rob Gronkowski is expected to make his long awaited debut,
and whether he is at 100 percent or not, his presence on the field
will garner much attention from the defense. At full strength,
this game would feature two of the top passing offenses in the
NFL, but with two rookies and several other injured players as
top receiving targets, the Patriots are at a noticeable disadvantage.
The surprise of the season may be the Saints defense. Coming
off of a historically bad season, they rank right around the top
third of the league in yards against and are a bit ahead of that
in sacks recorded. The major deficiency from a defensive point
of view is a relative lack of turnovers, but considering the offense
they’re paired with, all they really need is a stop or two
to give Brees a chance to win the game. Reminiscent of their Super
Bowl season, New Orleans seems to come up with big stops or crucial
turnovers in the most critical of moments. As one of the three
remaining undefeated teams, they will be put to the test by Brady
and company. And if the receiving corps, including Gronkowski,
is able to play to their full potential, they’ll test the
very limits of the new-and-improved Saints defense.
Running Game Thoughts: Even as the passing attack has been stumbling,
the ability to rush the ball has remained relatively strong. Early
fumble trouble steered New England away from the run a bit, but
after a series of injuries, depth chart changes, and solid performances,
LeGarrette Blount is now the starting running back as well as
finally becoming the team’s leading rusher. On the year
he’s averaged 4.5 yards per carry, scored one touchdown,
and aside from one fumble in the last game, has been solid in
protecting the ball. He hasn’t recorded any statistics in
the passing game but has received generally positive reviews as
a pass blocker, meaning he’ll be on the field more often
and will help force defenses to stay more honest, as Blount's
presence won't necessarily indicate a run play. With Brady under
center, the Patriots will always be a passing team, but Blount
gives them the ability to run in addition to his contributions
in protecting the quarterback. However, until he has a full game
under his belt as the primary starter, his value as a fantasy
RB will remain limited, despite his value as an on-field player.
New Orleans is less stellar against the run than against the
pass, but they still rank near the middle of the league, with
almost 109 yards against per game. No team that has played all
five games has faced fewer rushes though, so the Saints' yards
per attempt average of 5.4 shows that the main reason they haven’t
given up more rushing yards primarily because they don’t
face many rushes. Playing from behind forces a team to throw more
often, so for New Orleans the best defense is often a good offense.
If New England is able to establish the run early, they should
see great success and that in turn will open things up on the
back end for the passing game. Conversely, if they fall behind
early and abandon the run, the Saints have demonstrated that they
can effectively bend but not break against a strong passing attack,
and the Patriots may find themselves in an uncomfortable situation
in front of the home crowd. Brady may not be able to mount a comeback
given the inexperienced receiving corps he has at his disposal.
Projections:
Tom Brady: 300 pass yds, 3 TDs
LeGarrette Blount: 80 rush yds, 1 TD
Danny Amendola: 70 rec yds, 1 TD
Rob Gronkowski: 80 rec yds, 1 TD
Prediction: Saints 45, Patriots 34
Redskins at Cowboys
- (Thorne)
Passing Game Thoughts: Despite his
being on the field from the first snap of the season, Robert Griffin
III's recovery process is clearly ongoing. But he did take another
significant stride in his previous game. For the first time all
season he did not commit a turnover, and for the first time all
season the Redskins won. In the defensively-inept NFC East, it
becomes ever more critical to hold onto the ball because stops
are so hard to come by and teams can’t afford to give their
opponents additional scoring opportunities. Fresh off the Oakland
victory, Washington went on their bye week, so the timing is either
perfect in that it allows them to build on the success for an
additional week, or it is the positively bad timing in that it
disrupts all they’ve been building toward for the season.
Week 6 against Dallas will give Griffin another opportunity to
make plays and hopefully protect the ball. His 285 passing yards
per game ranks him in the top ten, and his six touchdowns are
approximately on pace with those around him considering he’s
played one fewer game. Sunday will go a long way in showing Washington
and the rest of the league how far he’s come since tearing
his ACL in January, and if he’s back at 100 percent, the
Redskins will be in business coming out of their bye.
In the history of the NFL only one team has scored more points
in a loss than Dallas did last week. But since that historic loss
was by the Houston Oilers, they can still hold onto a bit of their
pride by not being the worst in Texas. Unlike their southern counterpart,
the Cowboys have a near inability to stop an opponent’s
passing attack. Dallas is giving up 326 passing yards per game
on nearly 69 percent completions, both marks being second worst
in the league. No team has given up more passing touchdowns (14),
their interception numbers (5) are below average, and their 14
sacks are just on the positive side of the middle of the pack.
With a little time from the offensive line, Griffin will have
plenty of opportunities to make plays and keep his team in contention
for the division title.
Running Game Thoughts: After a slower start to this season, the
Redskins seem to have established the run much like they did so
well last year. Going into the bye week they rushed for 120-plus
yards in back-to-back weeks after performances of 74 and 108 yards
in the first two games. The bye came at an ideal time for running
back Alfred Morris because he picked up a rib injury halfway through
the last game. His skills, plus those of Griffin, give Washington
one of the most dynamic rushing attacks in the league so long
as they’re both healthy. They have the third best yards
per carry (4.8) despite having a season long of only 32 yards.
They run the ball effectively and don’t need long carries
in order to be successful; It’s hard to ask for more than
that.
Don’t be deceived by Dallas’s top four ranking in
rush defense. They give up so many yards through the air that
teams generally don’t have to run the ball very often. The
3.8 yards per carry mark is just outside of the top ten, so while
the distinction between being number four or number 12 isn’t
massive, the implications that go with being in the top third
apply much more to Dallas than those that come with being in the
top eighth. They’re good, not great, and when teams can
throw for huge chunks of yardage in a single play, why should
they waste a down trying to steal a few yards on the ground. The
wildcard here will be Griffin’s activity in the running
game; through for contests he’s carried 18 times for 72
yards, though the threat of his running is sometimes enough to
keep the defense off balance. Some of the best linebackers in
the game play for Dallas, but with a hobbled defensive line and
a secondary that surrenders yardage in bunches, it’s hard
for them to have a consistent impact on particular plays and especially
on the outcome of the game.
Projections:
Robert Griffin III: 360 pass yds, 1 TD / 30 rush yds, 1 TD
Alfred Morris: 90 rush yds, 1 TD
Pierre Garcon: 80 rec yds, 1 TD
Passing
Game Thoughts: Even a personal and franchise best couldn’t
lead the Cowboys to a victory last weekend. Behind 506 yards and
five touchdowns from Tony Romo, his team was in position for a
game-winning drive. But a late interception on a good defensive
play ended those hopes and led to the Broncos' game-winning field
goal. The national and local media has blown up over the late
turnover, attributing it to his tendency to collapse in critical
moments but overlooking that it was only his second interception
all season. He’s completed nearly 72 percent of his passes
on the season, averages 285 yards per game, and is second in the
league in touchdown passes (13), behind only the record-setting
pace of Peyton Manning. Without him at quarterback, Dallas would
arguably be 1–4, beating only the Rams and likely falling
to the Giants in Week 1. Romo's top target is of course Dez Bryant
(29 rec, 6 TDs, 423 yds) but right behind him is the ever-steady
Jason Witten (28 rec, 3 TDs, 313 yds). In the absence of Miles
Austin, rookie wide receiver Terrance Williams has stepped up
with 151 receiving yards and a touchdown last week against Denver.
The defenses in this game should be mirror images of each other;
the Redskins concede almost 300 passing yards per game and have
given up nine touchdowns while forcing only two interceptions.
Much like their opponent, Washington is effective at getting to
the quarterback, recording 15 sacks in only four games, on pace
to be one of the most effective teams in the league this season.
For a unit that isn’t great to forcing turnovers, gives
up tons of yards, and has a hard time coming up with stops in
the red zone, the Cowboys are a very tough opponent. The offensive
line isn’t stellar but they’re generally effective,
and when they’re not, Romo is good at making plays and overcoming
early setbacks. In terms of a passing attack, there isn’t
a defense in the NFC East that can match up with what Dallas has
at their disposal, and the Sunday night game will reflect that
as Dallas airs it out against their division rival.
Running Game Thoughts: On the ground Dallas has been more inconsistent
than they have through the air, but when they’ve been good
they’ve been very good. Running back DeMarco Murray has
handled the lion’s share of carries and is one of only a
handful of true primary backs in the league. As alluded to in
the passing game, the inconsistencies from the offensive line
largely drive a successful rushing attack, so when they’re
not performing well, Murray's stats will suffer. Aside from his
great performance against the Rams in Week 3 (26 carries for 175
yards and 1 touchdown) he’s recorded 224 yards and one touchdown
on 58 carries, averaging 3.8 yards per touch. Dallas is primarily
a passing team, so unless the running game is working particularly
well and the line is getting a good push, they tend to prefer
putting the ball in Romo’s hands than having him turn around
and hand off to a ball carrier. As a team they average just over
20 rushes per game, definitely below average for the league.
For all the success Dallas had against the Rams, it is worth
noting that the Redskins are statistically worse than St. Louis
against the run. Coming off their bye week they should be as close
to full strength as they’ve been all season, but even at
their best they’re not particularly gifted run stoppers,
allowing 4.7 yards per carry, in the bottom quarter of the NFL.
With the inconsistencies along both sides of the line of scrimmage,
the game will see a mixed bag of results on running plays. However,
if the game comes down to a single athlete needing to make a play,
Dallas has one of the best in Murray. The best hope for Washington
may be a high-scoring, pass-happy contest since they’re
slightly less bad against the pass than they are against the rush,
but neither is close to qualifying as anything but bad.
Projections:
Tony Romo: 320 pass yds, 4 TDs
DeMarco Murray: 90 rush yds, 1 TD / 40 rec yds
Dez Bryant: 120 rec yds, 1 TD
Jason Witten: 90 rec yds, 1 TD
Prediction: Cowboys 38, Redskins 34
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