Passing
Game Thoughts: Rookie Cody Kessler was back under center
last week, and while he’s not a fantasy option outside of
deep 2QB leagues, he has not been a disaster for the other Browns’
skill position players. Converted quarterback Terrelle Pryor has
shown outstanding run after the catch abilities and red zone presence
and has not finished lower than a WR2 in games with Kessler at
quarterback and he’s twice finished as a top 5 wide receiver.
Corey Coleman returned last week from a broken hand and was targeted
as much as Pryor, but did not find a lot of success. He is a dynamic
playmaker and should get back on track with a little more game
experience. The Ravens have only allowed 222.6 passing yards per
game but have yielded nearly two touchdowns per game with 15 touchdowns
against in eight games. Josh McCown started in Week 2 when these
teams last met and threw for 260 yards with 2 touchdowns and two
interceptions. That should set a decent baseline for this week’s
passing game production for Cleveland, but on a short week and
on the road, I would bet the under.
BAL FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.18
BAL FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.29
BAL FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.4
BAL FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.31
Running Game Thoughts: The Browns are finding success running
the ball, being the third best rushing team in the league on a
per carry basis (4.8 ypc). Unfortunately the game flow has not
allowed the team to run much and the Browns are only 29th in the
league in rushing attempts per game. Isaiah Crowell rushed for
133 yards and a score back in Week 2, busting an 85-yard run on
his scoring play. However, the Ravens run defense has been elite
since and the team is allowing only 71.6 yards per game on the
season with 4 touchdown runs. If the Ravens get out to an early
lead – and most teams do against the Browns – it would
be tough to imagine a repeat performance.
Passing
Game Thoughts: The Browns are allowing a touchdown pass
once every 13.8 pass attempts and have given up 22 passing touchdowns
on the season, better than only Atlanta. Joe Flacco has struggled
for most of the season but will be presented with a golden opportunity
this week. The Ravens have not been able to generate big plays
on offense outside of when they get the ball to Mike Wallace who
has 614 receiving yards and 4 touchdowns on the season. Two of
those touchdowns came during the Week 2 contest between the teams
but Joe Haden may spend more time in coverage on him this time
around. If that’s the case it could open up Steve Smith
to have a big week and/or tight end Dennis Pitta. Pitta managed
9 receptions for 102 yards the last time around and Cleveland
has struggled all season against opposing tight ends. Jason Witten
ate them up last week to the tune of 132 yards and a score.
CLE FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.3
CLE FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.10
CLE FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.1
CLE FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.21
Running Game Thoughts: The Browns have performed poorly against
the run, allowing 146.4 yards per game with 12 touchdowns on the
ground. The Ravens haven’t been able to truly establish
a run game, but this should be a good week to do so based on their
opponent. The trouble for fantasy owners, will be the fact that
Terrence West and rookie Kenneth Dixon could see an even split
of touches this week, limiting their upside a bit. West is likely
the safer play, but Dixon could be an option for owners in a bind.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Dak Prescott has not been a typical rookie
quarterback from an NFL or fantasy football perspective. He has
been a fantasy QB1 when the matchup is right and has produced
week in and week out. Facing the Steelers isn’t necessarily
a “right” matchup however, as the Steelers have only
allowed 9 passing touchdowns this season but they are allowing
276 passing yards per game and Prescott can earn fantasy points
as a runner as well. When Dez Bryant was out, Prescott didn’t
feel the need to force the ball to any one player and that surely
helped his development. Obviously having Dez as a target cannot
be considered a bad thing but sometimes it can lead to bad decisions.
Prescott has completed 72% of his passes when targeting other
players and only 39% when throwing to Bryant. Prescott’s
favorite target while Bryant was out was slot man Cole Beasley
and even with Bryant on the field, Beasley has never failed to
gain over 50 yards giving him a solid fantasy floor. It was tight
end Jason Witten that was fed last week however gaining 132 yards,
but that was likely a result of Cleveland being the worst team
at defending opposing tight ends. It would be hard to not see
that game as anything but an outlier as Witten had only 292 yards
entering last week’s game.
PIT FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.26
PIT FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.4
PIT FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.29
PIT FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.16
Running Game Thoughts: Rookie Ezekiel Elliott is on pace to set
the all time rookie rushing record and is second only to Adrian
Peterson in fantasy points as a rookie runner through his first
half season. Running behind one of the best offensive lines in
recent years and with power, agility and balance, his floor is
high each week and his owners have experienced the upside. The
Steelers have done well against the run this season allowing under
100 yards per game, but they have allowed 8 rushing touchdowns
and Elliot has scored 7 touchdowns so far.
Passing
Game Thoughts: As expected, Ben Roethlisberger struggled
in his first game back from injury at Baltimore, and while he
should get back on track at Heinz Field the going could be tougher
than expected. Dallas has only allowed one opposing fantasy quarterback
to finish in the top 10 this season, and Ben looked rusty and
hobbled last week. They have also done a great job shutting down
outside receivers this season, but fantasy owners should still
feel safe putting Antonio Brown in their lineup as his floor is
among the highest at the position. Outside of Brown only Eli Rogers
should warrant consideration as the Cowboys have struggled with
slot receivers and Rogers is starting to see heavy targets. Sammie
Coates had a hot streak going a few weeks back but can no longer
be trusted after struggling the last two weeks.
DAL FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.21
DAL FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.32
DAL FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.21
DAL FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.13
Running Game Thoughts: Le’Veon Bell has yet to find the
endzone, but he has still managed to finish as a RB1 in every
game but one since returning. The Steelers have not fed him lately
as they have moved away from running the ball for some reason,
but with him being heavily involved in the passing game he still
maintains “must start” value. The Cowboys have played
the run exceptionally well this season allowing only 86.9 yards
per game and 3 rushing scores, but that’s not going to matter
much to an all purpose back like Bell.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Alex Smith (concussion) is expected to be
back under center for the Chiefs on Sunday. Jeremy Maclin saw
only one target last week before being sidelined with a groin
injury. He hasn’t been able to rack up much yardage and
has been limited in practice this week so fantasy owners should
probably keep him benched even if he is cleared. Tyreek Hill,
Chris Conley and Albert Wilson will all have a better chance to
be fantasy stars this weekend with Maclin limited. To date Conley
has only produced one double-digit fantasy outing in his career
(a six-catch effort in Week 7 last season) while Hill has been
far more consistent at finding the end zone with touchdowns in
two of the past three games. Although Albert Wilson saw eight
targets last week he was only able to haul in three of them so
he will be tough to trust as a flex option. Meanwhile, Travis
Kelce is starting to assert himself as one of the best fantasy
tight ends in the game. After a slow start to the year, Kelce
has notched double-digit fantasy outings in each of the past four
weeks. With an expanded role in the offense, he should be able
to extend that streak against the third friendliest defense for
tight ends.
CAR FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.3
CAR FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.27
CAR FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.5
CAR FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.3
Running Game Thoughts: Given a spot start, backup Charcandrick
West averaged 3.0 YPC on 13 rushing attempts against the Jags
and chipped in with three receptions in the passing game. This
wasn’t the type of effort he needed to earn more reps so
expect him to revert back to a handcuff only fantasy play when
Spencer Ware (concussion) is cleared to return. The week off should
allow Ware to make some progress within the league’s protocol
and return to action against the Panthers. With Jamaal Charles
already on IR and West not proving himself as more than a backup,
Ware has emerged as a solid fantasy running back for the rest
of the year. The Panthers have given up the seventh most fantasy
points to opposing running backs on the year making Ware a solid
starting option for week 10.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Cam Newton opened the year averaging 28
fantasy points over the team’s first three games but has
only come up with an average of 20 points over the team’s
last three. The reigning league MVP has just one passing touchdown
in his last two games but there is hope that he can jumpstart
his second half against the Chiefs. The KC defense has allowed
seven touchdowns over the past three weeks and rank 21st in sacks
coming into the weekend. The return of OLB Justin Houston should
give the pass rush a boost but I’m counting on Cam’s
running ability to keep him upright. Carolina isn’t going
to run all over the Chiefs and will need to throw the ball to
put up points. I’m not expecting huge totals from Newton
and the passing game but I am optimistic about the Panthers notching
a few scores through the air which means Kelvin Benjamin and Greg
Olsen should be deployed in all formats. Benjamin is riding a
four game streak with at least 70 yards receiving and no touchdowns.
As I noted above, don’t expect a huge game but I like his
chances of notching a touchdown in Week 10. The Chiefs have allowed
tight ends to catch at least six balls in each of the past two
games and now they face one of the best in Olsen. He will be a
common target on third downs where Kansas City has allowed opposing
teams to convert first downs 56 percent of the time (sixth worst
in the NFL). Ted Ginn and Philly Brown saw more playing time than
Devin Funchess but neither offers much as the third or fourth
option in a low volume passing scheme.
KC FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.12
KC FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.14
KC FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.7
KC FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.27
Running Game Thoughts: St. Louis stymied Jonathan Stewart last
week and Kansas City has a good shot to do the same against the
Panthers. I expect this game to be close throughout which means
Stewart will need some big plays in order to have a solid fantasy
day. However, he’s only been able to break one run of more
than 20 yards on the year and I don’t like his chances against
this defense. He could still grind out enough yards with 20 touches
to make him a useful flex option in 12 team leagues but I wouldn’t
feel comfortable using him in shallow formats. With Stewart healthy,
Fozzy Whittaker was the only other running back to see snaps for
the Panthers last week. He’s a third down specialist that
isn’t being used in the pass game which has sucked any potential
fantasy value out of him for the foreseeable future. Cam Newton
has 14 rushes over the past two weeks so it doesn’t appear
that the team is restricting his role following a concussion earlier
in the year. That is crucial considering much of Newton’s
X-factor as a fantasy asset is his legs.
Passing
Game Thoughts: It’s been six long weeks since DeAndre
Hopkins went over the century mark in receiving yards. The worst
part is that I don’t really see a huge breakout coming.
The targets are about as good as they are going to be (34 over
the past three games) but the catch rate is a lackluster 52.6
percent. The Jags pass defense is getting better each week and
Brock Osweiler is getting worse. Will Fuller wasn’t able
to practice Monday but did get in some work on Wednesday and Thursday.
He’s considered day-to-day with knee and hamstring issues
but is on track to play. Things aren’t so positive with
Jaelen Strong where a sprained ankle will sideline the receiver
for a month. Look for rookie Braxton Miller to get more involved
in the passing game starting this week. Jacksonville will have
to respect Hopkins on the outside, leaving Miller with more room
to work in three receiver sets. He’s a depth option in 12-plus
team leagues and could become a flex option is Fuller is limited
by his injuries. C.J. Fiedorowicz has become a steady contributor
on offense. The only problem is that the team’s passing
attack hasn’t exactly been lighting the world on fire. The
increased target share over the past month makes him a stop gap
solution in PPR leagues but he remains a backup in all other formats.
JAC FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.22
JAC FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.17
JAC FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.12
JAC FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.26
Running Game Thoughts: Jacksonville hasn’t been awful
against the run but they are allowing touchdowns with ease-four
in the past three weeks. This is good news for anyone hoping Lamar
Miller will begin resurgence in the second half. The Texans’
bye came at a good time giving Houston’s plow horse an extra
week for his shoulder to heal up. Despite the injuries, Miller
continues to be one of the best sources for touches at the running
back position. Nonetheless, he was still limited at practice on
Thursday and is clearly not at 100 percent. I don’t think
he is in danger of being ruled out but his owners would be wise
to check in with his status prior to kickoff just to be safe.
Alfred Blue has preformed well in a backup role but would need
Miller to be ruled inactive to become an option for fantasy owners
this week.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Blake Bortles may not be living up to his
ridiculous 2015 campaign but he did have some success against
the Chiefs in the first game under new OC Nathaniel Hackett and
I’m optimistic about his chances of turning around the offense
(eventually). Unfortunately, the Jags will be going up against
the Texans this week. This is a defense that hasn’t allowed
a quarterback to throw more than one touchdown pass since Week
5 and is only allowing 316 total yards per game. I hate to pile
on, but Bortles has thrown five interceptions in his last two
outings against Houston. Needless to say, this isn’t a great
week to use the Jacksonville passing attack. On the flip side,
if the new scheme looks to 2015 for inspiration there could be
a second half full of throws to Allen Robinson deep down the field.
A-Rob is having a down year and I can’t endorse him as a
WR1 any longer, but he has volume on his side and his team should
be playing from behind late in the game. Consequently, he’s
still a useful fantasy player for Week 10 owners and should be
started in all but the shallowest of formats. Marqise Lee, the
six foot former USC Trojan, has collected at least six targets
in seven of nine games on the year. He’s moved ahead of
Hurns as the second best fantasy receiver on this team. Speaking
of Hurns (concussion), he returned to practice on Thursday and
is on track to being cleared for action this weekend. Count me
amongst the crowd that is waiting for Julius Thomas to break out.
Last season’s big ticket acquisition isn’t getting
much love outside of the red zone and I don’t see too many
Jacksonville drives getting that far down the field.
HOU FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.31
HOU FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.11
HOU FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.30
HOU FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.29
Running Game Thoughts: For the first time this season, Chris
Ivory was used properly and the results were gratifying for those
who had to start him last week. If new OC Hackett continues to
give Ivory the volume he needs, there isn’t any reason he
couldn’t be a high-end RB3 down the stretch. Adding to the
positive news for the Jags backfield was seeing T. J. Yeldon catch
a touchdown pass. Using these two runners in tandem is the only
way the Jags will win this game. Luckily, Houston is having a
tough time of stopping the run this year. The Texans have allowed
at least one running back to score double digit fantasy points
in every game this season. If you think the play calling will
continue down the path laid out last week then you shouldn’t
have an issue rolling out Ivory or Yeldon as a flex option this
week. After a two month voyage of exhausting what doesn’t
work in this rush game, the tide could be turning for the Jags
backfield.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Jay Cutler and the Bears head into this
game on an extra week of rest. They need it because outside of
a four game stretch earlier in the year with Brian Hoyer under
center, Chicago has fallen short in the passing game. With news
surrounding Cutler’s probable release in the off-season
expect him to be more inclined to get the ball down the field
to his play makers. That line of thinking has me bullish on Alshon
Jeffery this weekend. The big fella on the outside has become
a more central part of the offense Kevin White and Eddie Royal
out of the lineup. He has 32 targets in his past three games and
there isn’t any reason to think he won’t continue
to get that sort of volume against Tampa Bay. After playing the
Falcons a week ago, the Bucs have officially become the most generous
defense for opposing wide receivers. Eddie Royal has struggled
with injuries this year but the extra rest should allow him to
put his toe injury behind him. He has some appeal in PPR formats
but his upside is limited while playing in an offense that ranks
31st in scoring. Zach Miller has been an inconsistent fantasy
option but I would be surprised if the Bears didn’t put
in a few red zone plays for him during the bye week considering
the Bucs defense has allowed three touchdowns to tight ends in
their past two contests.
TB FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.4
TB FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.7
TB FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.1
TB FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.12
Running Game Thoughts: Jordan Howard seems to have cemented his
role as the lead back in the Windy City. The match up isn’t
daunting and Chicago only path to success lies with its ability
to run the football and grind the clock away. All signs point
to a decent outing in Week 10 so deploy him as a RB2 with confidence.
For the first time since breaking into the starting lineup, Jeremy
Langford is healthy and able to threaten Howard’s carries.
Langford was good enough to be the team’s starter to open
the year (when the offensive line was a mess) and can’t
be completely overlooked in deep leagues where the length of an
NFL season can wear down a rookie running back. KaDeem Carey (illness)
was a full participant in practice on Thursday and should be available
in a reserve role once again this week.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Mike Evans started the week in concussion
protocol but has already returned to practice so fantasy owners
should have him cemented into their lineups this weekend. He’s
primed for a solid week going up against a secondary that typically
looks over matched. The injuries to the running game should allow
the Bears to scheme against Evans getting the ball. Even if the
Bears have modest success in that department, Jameis Winston will
provide his top pass catcher with plenty of volume to help his
owners to a productive fantasy outing. Winston has thrown eight
touchdowns over the past three weeks (tied for second most in
the NFL in that span) and shouldn’t much trouble adding
to that total this week. Russell Shepard and Adam Humprhies are
both on the flex radar this week. I still feel that Shepard offers
more fantasy potential than Humphries but he wasn’t able
to overcome a hip injury last week and hasn’t practiced
at all this week. As a result, Humphries steps into a great situation
where he should see the bulk of the non-Evans targets in a favorable
match up. Cameron Brate is looking to make it three games in a
row with a touchdown reception. He doesn’t do much else
so you know what you are getting if you start him.
CHI FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.30
CHI FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.3
CHI FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.25
CHI FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.5
Running Game Thoughts: Tampa Bay lost Antone Smith last week
and heads into their Week 10 tilt against the Bears with Peyton
Barber and Mike James ready to lead the charge. However, there
is hope that Doug Martin may be healthy enough to return for this
game. He’s been out since the second week of the year with
a hamstring injury but has been a limited participant in practice.
He has already suffered one setback during his recovery so expect
the team to be extra cautious before clearing him to play. If
he is cleared to play he’ll simply be a part of a committee
that will be splitting carries against the third stingiest run
defense for fantasy running backs this season. Unless you are
absolutely desperate for a running back this week, I’d just
steer clear and wait for Martin and Jacquizz Rodgers to get healthy.
Passing
Game Thoughts: The flood gates have opened on the Tennessee
pass defense. They haven’t forced an interception since
Week 5 and have allowed ten passing touchdowns in their past four
games. Oh yeah, Aaron Rodgers and the Packers are coming to Nashville.
There should be a little more balance to the offensive attack
this week with James Starks likely to return. That won’t
be enough to prevent Rodgers from slinging the ball around to
his pass-catchers. The lead cheese head has absolutely torched
the Titans in his two previous meetings throwing for a combined
656 yards and four touchdowns. Randall Cobb was limited in practice
Wednesday and might be a game time decision so prepare to make
adjustments on Sunday if needed. Any questions about Jordy Nelson’s
position on the depth chart should be erased after posting his
second straight game with 94 receiving yards and a touchdown.
That makes touchdowns in six of eight games so I don’t expect
his owners will need to move him out of that WR slot for the remainder
of the year. Davante Adams figures to lose some steam if Green
Bay gets the running game back on track. He’ll still be
a useful WR3 most weeks now that Rodgers is looking his way. Richard
Rodgers is coming off his best game of the year (six catches for
66 yards). However, Jared Cook’s return isn’t far
away and Green Bay has not made much of an effort to use the tight
end in the offense.
TEN FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.14
TEN FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.20
TEN FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.23
TEN FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.7
Running Game Thoughts: After watching Ty Montgomery have success
in a hybrid role and Aaron Ripkowski rumble down the field in
Week 8 I’m not convinced that the Packers will have as much
incentive to give James Starks a whole lot of opportunities. Starks
has practiced on Wednesday and Thursday is expected to be the
team’s lead running back against the Titans this weekend.
Then again the Packers losing ways may be partly driven by the
one dimensional offense they have been using in recent weeks.
I’m not sure they will expect a guy coming off knee surgery
to tote the rock more than a dozen or so times against Tennessee’s
front seven. The Titans don’t give up rushing touchdowns
very often they are susceptible to giving up big gains-only four
teams have given up more running plays of over 20 yards. Although
I am not overly enthused about Starks this week it would be tough
to keep him benched considering the Titans just let Melvin Gordon
rush for 196 yards.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Marcus Mariota is among several quarterbacks
playing through injuries this week. He was able to practice in
full on Wednesday with a sore ankle and wasn’t listed on
the team’s injury report. He’s been one of the hottest
fantasy quarterbacks and could be in for a shootout against Green
Bay this week. The Packers defense has allowed at least 26 points
(including seven passing touchdowns) in each of their past four
games so there should be ample opportunities for the Titans offense
to put up points. Rishard Matthews has been one of the more consistent
threats during Mariota’s hot streak. After adding two more
touchdowns against the Chargers, he is up to five in five games.
He hasn’t been able to sustain his high target volume thus
far so keep him in the WR3 range until further notice. Kendall
Wright is clearly the number three receiver on the team after
playing only 68 percent of the snaps last week (compared to Sharpe
at 83 percent and Matthews at 89 percent). Delanie Walker’s
“every other week” trend continued with a nice performance
against San Diego last week. I fear his fortunes against the Packers
may hold true as well if Green Bay decides to stack the box and
use blitzes to get to Mariota. In both cases, Walker may be needed
more as a blocker. Keep him in the lineup and temper expectations.
GB FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.16
GB FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.31
GB FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.9
GB FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.14
Running Game Thoughts: DeMarco Murray keeps chugging along even
when he leaves the game with an apparent injury. He has scored
in four straight games and is one of the most reliable fantasy
options this side of David Johnson. Murray (toe) returned to practice
on Thursday this week and should be ready to go against the Packers
in Week 10. Green Bay’s defense has been pretty good against
the run so this will be a classic strength on strength match up.
There is a good chance the score gets away from the Titans too
early for Murray to get his typical touches in this game. Even
so, he shouldn’t have too much trouble churning out RB2
stats on Sunday. Meanwhile, Derrick Henry (calf) is expected to
get in a light practice on Friday. He’s not on the fantasy
map this week but his ability to return to practice late in the
week bodes well for his chances to contribute in Week 11. Antonio
Andrews is expected to fill in as the primary backup to Murray
this weekend.
Passing
Game Thoughts: I noted awhile back how the Saints have
actually been pretty good at holding down the opposing team’s
top wide receiver and that trend has continued into the middle
of the 2016 season. That means that Demaryius Thomas owners could
be in for a let down this week. The top receiving threat in the
Denver passing attack comes into the week averaging ten targets
a game over the past month but has only one touchdown during that
span. The match up is still too good to keep him benched but don’t
be surprised if he under performs once again. Emmanuel Sanders,
however, is looking ripe for a big game. Denver hasn’t had
as much success on the road this season, often finding they need
to throw more than they would have liked. This has resulted in
Sanders averaging almost 11 targets per road contest versus only
about 8 in home games. That may not seem like a huge difference
but it get magnified when Denver’s offense needs to keep
pace with the top scoring team in the league. Beyond the top two
receivers, Denver lacks a consistent third option in the passing
game, including the tight end position. Jordan Norwood is the
closest, having played in just over half of the offensive snaps
this year.
NO FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.11
NO FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.2
NO FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.22
NO FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.9
Running Game Thoughts: Denver’s backfield is starting to
look like a perpetual temp to hire job with Gary Kubiak more than
willing to give new guys a shot. Such is the case this week with
news of Kapri Bibbs earning more carries heading into the Broncos’
match up against the Saints. Of all the week’s to lose carries,
Devontae Booker owners are pulling their hair out hoping that
Kubiak’s threats don’t turn out to be reality. This
is eerily similar to Booker’s own ascension up the depth
chart this season dating back to the preseason. And before him
it was C.J. Anderson unseating Ronnie Hillman and company and
well that is a story for another time. I suspect this week’s
comments were rooted in motivational tactics given the lack of
running back depth on the roster. Booker’s recent lack of
production aside, he should have a positive fantasy day if given
at least 15 touches. New Orleans ranks in the lower third of the
league in most defensive rushing categories and I have to believe
the coaching staff emphasized the importance of sustaining drives
to keep one of the best offenses off the field. Without knowing
just how many carries Bibbs may receive he is too risky to trust
in starting fantasy lineups.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Drew Brees will line up across one of the
best defenses in the league but that isn’t going to deter
me from starting him at home. The veteran signal caller is riding
a three game stretch with just under 41 pass attempts and a completion
percentage above 70 percent. Throw in the seven touchdowns during
that span and you have the recipe for a very successful fantasy
offense. Brandin Cooks has company atop the depth chart in Michael
Thomas. Over the past three weeks only Davante Adams and Mike
Evans have been better than Thomas. Denver CB Aqib Talib hasn’t
been able to practice this week and looks like he will miss this
game. That should open things up over the middle where Thomas
and Willie Snead can dissect the defense. I’m anticipating
more blocking will be needed against Von Miller and company which
will limit the production of Coby Fleener this week.
DEN FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.32
DEN FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.8
DEN FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.32
DEN FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.23
Running Game Thoughts: I am not sure why it took so long for Sean
Peyton to embrace a RBBC when he has had success using multiple
running backs in the past (Darren Sproles and Pierre Thomas are
names that come to mind). Hightower has back to back games with
over 20 carries following Ingram’s early fumble in Week
8 against Seattle. I’m not sure if we can expect the same
distribution of carries moving forward considering the snap count
was closer to a 50/50 split (Hightower edged Ingram 37 to 33).
The added competition should help both players to being high end
flex/RB2 options against the Broncos. Denver has allowed its opponents
to rush for over 128 yards per game (4th most in the NFL).
Passing
Game Thoughts: The great Albert Einstein once posited a
definition for insanity – doing the same thing over and
over again and expecting different results. That about sums up
Jeff Fisher’s career. The Rams offense, while not supremely
talented, is not completely devoid of playmakers. But when any
playmaker gets saddled to Jeff Fisher, he is stripped of his playmaking
ability. The Rams are a terrible team because of Fisher and are
not going anywhere this season. There is no reason to not give
Jared Goff a half-season showcase. But Fisher, in his infinite
wisdom, is sticking with Case Keenum and his 9:11 touchdown:interception
ratio. Kenny Britt had his second consecutive dud game, salvaged
only by a very late touchdown. Tavon Austin went from a ten target
game two weeks ago to seeing just one target last week. He’s
a nice NFL player, but is not a true receiver and his usage is
way too inconsistent to trust. Lance Kendricks was a popular streamer
with most of the big name TEs on bye and he did not disappoint,
catching seven of twelve targets for 90 yards and a score…wait…he
didn’t score – he actually dropped an easy touchdown.
Okay, maybe he did disappoint a little. But nevertheless, Kendricks
is a guy to keep an eye on going forward to see if this usage
continues. The Jets are pretty terrible against the pass, even
if Ryan Tannehill could only must 149 yards last week. Even with
last week’s anomaly, the Jets have allowed 16 passing touchdowns
on the season and allow 272.2 yards per game. With a handful of
quality WRs on bye this week, Britt and Austin are worth at least
filler considerations.
NYJ FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.13
NYJ FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.15
NYJ FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.13
NYJ FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.15
Running Game Thoughts: I get that Todd Gurley is an immense talent.
He is also the poster child for why running backs do not matter
in the NFL in 2016. A running back is only as good as his team
lets him be. The Cowboys can put anyone in the backfield and he’d
have success because of the game plan and the offensive line.
Gurley was handed a bottom five offensive line, Case Keenum, and
arguably the worst coach of the last 15 years. With that being
said, in a year where Jacquizz Rodgers and Dujuan Harris can rip
off 100-yard rushing efforts, how is it that through half his
games, Gurley doesn’t even have one? Last week, he didn’t
even have the volume, handling a season low twelve carries and
failing to reach fifty yards for the third time. His reward next
week is a date with formerly the league’s top rushing defense
(the unstoppable Jay Ajayi knocked the Jets down a few pegs to
number four). The Jets allow 3.5 yards per carry. Gurley averages
3.1 yards per carry. In all seriousness, if you have the depth,
you should probably bench Todd Gurley.
Passing
Game Thoughts: It’s time for Todd Bowles to stick
a fork in Ryan Fitzpatrick. The Jets are clearly going nowhere
this season. At least see what Bryce Petty has to offer. Fitzpatrick
added another two interceptions to his ledger, bringing his season
leading total to thirteen against just eight touchdowns. He is
the reason the Jets lost last week. Quincy Enunwa’s usage
continues to be unreliable. He is not a must own player, despite
his apparent talent. As for Brandon Marshall, allow me to present
you with a comparison. Remember when Golden Tate was so useless
that he was being dropped in a majority of leagues? Yeah, that
same Golden Tate has about as many fantasy points as alleged every
week must start Brandon Marshall. I think I was a little too generous
in pegging Marshall as a WR3 last week. The guy hasn’t reached
double digit fantasy points since Week 5. I acknowledge that at
any point, Marshall could blow up because of who he is, but that
is no reason to continue sacrificing your WR3 or Flex position
with someone who is continually outscored by the likes of draft
day afterthoughts Cole Beasley and Rishard Matthews. The Rams
only allow 232.2 passing yards per game. Last week, they shut
down Cam Newton and contained Kelvin Benjamin. The Rams also have
a shut down of Odell Beckham on their resume. If you have a viable
alternative to Marshall, you should give it serious consideration.
LAR FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.23
LAR FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.23
LAR FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.16
LAR FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.19
Running Game Thoughts: And the Matt Forte rollercoaster continues
with a nice drop. Forte handled a mere twelve carries last week
and caught one pass after his monster usage the previous two weeks.
The good news is that this time, despite the significant decrease
in usage, the production was fine. Forte totaled 97 yards from
scrimmage (92 on the ground) and found the end zone. The Rams
are decidedly average against the run and this is the type of
game where I can see the Jets pounding Forte until he can’t
walk anymore. In a similar fashion to Marshall’s explosion
potential, Forte can disappear at any moment, but that’s
a risk you’re going to have to take. Start Forte with confidence.
Passing
Game Thoughts: I have been a defender of Matt Ryan for
years. I always thought he never got enough respect for how good
he was. That is, until this year, when I finally caved and admitted
he’s not all that good. Way to prove me wrong Matt. He is
not just the top fantasy QB, he’s the leading candidate
to be the NFL MVP. Ryan has a touchdown in every game this season
and multiple touchdowns in all but two games. He’s on pace
for about 5,300 yards and 40 touchdowns against just eight interceptions.
And last week, he finally targeted Julio Jones in the red zone
and holy cow, it worked! Julio saw eleven targets, catching eight
for 111 yards and the aforementioned touchdown. His bottom line
on the season looks great, but when we draft Julio Jones, we’re
not expecting to see three weeks of under thirty yards. On the
flip side, aside from those three weeks, he’s been an absolute
monster, with at least 174 yards or a touchdown in every other
game. Before last week, the Eagles had only allowed eight passing
touchdowns on the season. If Eli Manning can drop four touchdowns
on a defense, imagine when Matt Ryan and Julio Jones are going
to do.
PHI FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.24
PHI FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.21
PHI FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.20
PHI FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.28
Running Game Thoughts: Tevin Coleman’s return is looking
more likely to be Week 11, which means Devonta Freeman has another
week with the backfield all to himself. Freeman only had 77 yards
in last week’s blowout of the Bucs, but that was more due
to the Bucs inability to stop Ryan. Freeman looked good and the
lack of touchdowns was fluky. He’s as good of a bet as anyone
to rediscover the end zone this week. The Eagles have only allowed
four rushing touchdowns on the season, but I am of the belief
their impressive defensive display had more to do with their opponents
failing than them succeeding. The Eagles have only faced one elite
back all season – Ezekiel Elliott. He hit them for 96 yards
on 22 carries. I see no reason Freeman can’t do something
similar.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Caron Wentz threw for a career high 364
yards last week, but by no means did he play well. With the Eagles
trailing for the entirety of this game, most of the time by multiple
scores, Wentz had no choice but to throw. Wentz’s volume
carried Jordan Matthews (6-88 on 10 targets) and Zach Ertz (8-97
on 8 targets) to solid days, but his two poor interceptions ultimately
did the Eagles in. The Falcons lead the league in touchdowns allowed
with 23 and trail only the Saints in passing yards allowed per
game at 289.6. Jameis Winston lit them up for 261 yards and three
touchdowns last week and they allowed a fourth passing score to
Mike Glennon. The Falcons were powerless to stop Mike Evans. Basically,
they can be thrown on. If the Eagles are serious about winning
this game, Wentz will continue to pepper Jordan Matthews with
targets and dare the defense to stop him. This is a great matchup
for the relevant Eagles. As for Nelson Agholor and Dorial Green-Beckham,
well, neither of them can catch and DGB has been passed by Bryce
Treggs. Neither of them should be owned.
ATL FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.1
ATL FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.13
ATL FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.2
ATL FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.5
Running Game Thoughts: Doug Pederson finally admitted what we
all already knew: Darren Sproles is the lead back. Sproles once
again dominated backfield snaps, appearing on 80 percent of them.
Ryan Mathews found the end zone because of course he did, but
he still only played eight snaps. I know he’s scored the
last two weeks, but he can be dropped. Sproles is the leader and
Mathews, Kenjon Barner, and Wendell Smallwood are all tied for
last. Sproles is averaging 4.8 yards per carry and about 2.75
receptions per game. He’s a PPR RB2 and if he ever managed
to score, he’d put up RB1 numbers. The Falcons give up 91.6
rushing yards per game so there’s opportunity for Sproles
to thrive here.
Passing
Game Thoughts: A few short weeks ago, I was of the opinion
that the Vikings were the best team in the NFC. How the mighty
have fallen. The Vikings’ offensive line can’t block
anything, which is forcing Sam Bradford to make rushed decisions.
It’s the defensive pressure that resulted in Stefon Diggs
only amassing 80 yards on a whopping 13 catches. If you own Diggs
in a PPR league, you’ll take that every week, but the lack
of innovation on offense that’s been Norv Turner’s
signature for about two decades has not changed after one week
with Pat Shurmer. Bradford still has yet to throw for 300 yards
in a game and has only thrown multiple touchdowns twice. For reasons
I’ll never fully understand, the Vikings are averse to finding
ways to get the ball into Cordarrelle Patterson’s hands
similar to how the Chiefs use Tyreek Hill. As such, the offense
is constrained and CPatt is nothing more than a boom or bust WR4
while Diggs is prevented from reaching his WR1 ceiling. Kyle Rudolph
should be a reliable TE, but he only caught one pass last week
(albeit for a score) and simply isn’t getting enough volume
to be trustworthy. The Redskins are one of nine teams that have
not allowed double digit passing touchdowns on the season. Their
defense is quietly very solid and underrated. The Vikings offense
is a mess and outside of Diggs, there’s no one that’s
a must start.
MIN FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.29
MIN FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.22
MIN FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.31
MIN FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.24
Running Game Thoughts: Jerick McKinnon is by far the most talented
running back on the Vikings, yet he’s treated like he’s
just another guy. It was basically a three way split between McKinnon,
Matt Asiata, and Ronnie Hillman. The Vikings have a bottom five
offensive line and a bland offense. There is nothing to see here.
I’ve been a McKinnon enthusiast for a long time and while
I still believe in his talent, it’s reached the point where
no Vikings RB even needs to be owned. The Redskins are horrendous
against the run, surrendering 4.9 yards per carry. Even so, I
still can’t advocate starting anyone taking carries for
the Vikings.
Passing
Game Thoughts: We last saw the Redskins across the pond
two weeks ago where they so fittingly tied in a soccer stadium.
Kirk Cousins threw for a season high 458 yards. Since Week 3,
Cousins has accounted for multiple touchdowns in every game except
one. He is a QB1 in the right matchup. This is not the right matchup.
Even though the Vikings defense has fallen off a bit the last
couple weeks, they are still a top five unit and one of just four
teams with more interceptions than touchdowns allowed (8-10).
Cousins is a volume guy and a team allowing 205.8 passing yards
per game is not what Cousins wants to see. On a positive note,
Jordan Reed looked to be all kinds of healthy in England and now
he’s had two weeks to rest. Last week, the Vikings were
eaten up underneath by Eric Ebron to the tune of 7 catches for
92 yards. Jordan Reed is a lot better than Eric Ebron. If there’s
one guy you can rely on, it’s Reed. As long as his brain
is functioning properly, Reed is a top three TE regardless of
matchup. As for the rest of the Redskins pass catchers, Jamison
Crowder is the one I’m most interested in. He is being used
quite intelligently underneath not unlike the Cowboys use Cole
Beasley and has the highest floor on the team. DeSean Jackson
has topped 55 yards just twice this season and not since Week
3. He also hasn’t practiced as of Thursday and some reports
are suggesting he’ll miss this game. Pierre Garcon is irrelevant.
WAS FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.25
WAS FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.6
WAS FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.24
WAS FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.18
Running Game Thoughts: Jay Gruden has indicated that Rob Kelley
has usurped Matt Jones as the Redskins starting running back.
What that actually means remains to be seen. Kelley is nothing
special, but he’s a physical back that does not shy away
from contact. Being forced to choose between him and Matt Jones
is not a choice I am envious of. Given the sad state of running
backs once you get past the guys at the top, Kelley is probably
your best bet. Chris Thompson’s role is not going to change
regardless of what the split is between Kelley and Jones. He is
a floor guy who is good for a couple points in a bind, but not
a guy you want to start deliberately. You’re hoping for
high single digits from Thompson. If you want a touchdown, it’s
either Kelley or Jones. I prefer Kelley, but only the Chiefs and
Cowboys have allowed fewer rushing touchdowns (3) than the Vikings
(4).
Passing
Game Thoughts: Not one. Not two. But three touchdowns from
Russell Wilson in a single game! Wilson last threw three touchdowns
against the Jets on October 2nd. He didn’t throw another
one the rest of the month. Has he broken out of his funk? I’m
not so sure. Wilson was incredibly efficient and this was easily
his best game of the season, completing 20-of-26 passes for 282
yards, but he still was moving carefully and not taking off as
freely as he used to. Also, do not ignore the fact that both of
his passing touchdowns game on incredible one handed grabs by
Jimmy Graham, who was having his left arm pinned down on both
plays. Those easily could’ve fallen incomplete or generated
pass interference resulting in a rushing score from the one yard
line. Had that been the case, we’d be singing a vastly different
tune about Wilson’s future prospects. In the second half,
Wilson was shut out, only managing a lone fourth quarter field
goal in terms of scoring. I would be hesitant to confidently deploy
Wilson just yet. As for his top two receiving targets, it’s
all systems go. Jimmy Graham looks like the Graham of old and
it’s not just touchdowns, it’s the volume to go along
with it. He’s right up there with Gronk, Olsen, and Reed
as the elite tight ends. Since he became fully integrated in the
offense in Week 3, Graham has five receptions or more in all but
one game. The other relevant member of Seattle’s receiving
corps, Doug Baldwin, also had a quality game, with six catches
for 89 yards. Wilson utilized him on a quick slants and bubble
screens, showing a deliberate effort to get him the ball. This
type of usage presents a huge amount of optimism going forward.
It also shows the chemistry between Wilson and his top two pass
catchers when you see that Baldwin and Graham caught all fourteen
of their combined targets. The Patriots are going to score a lot
of points Sunday night. Seattle will have to throw to keep up.
Hopefully Russell Wilson is up to the task.
NE FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.15
NE FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.19
NE FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.27
NE FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.22
Running Game Thoughts: The reason Seattle will have to throw
to keep up is because they can’t run the ball. Christine
Michael is not a good running back. He is a fast running back.
Give him and hole and he will scamper right through it. Ask him
to create on his own and he is lost. Pete Carroll has been talking
up Thomas Rawls all season, despite him being nowhere near ready
to return. Why? Because the Seahawks do not believe in Michael.
Everything they have done furthers that point. Except now they
are not even waiting for Rawls. C.J. Prosise has surpassed Michael
in the backfield hierarchy. Prosise out-snapped Michael 55%-38%
last week and was on the field in all the crucial moments. CMike
found the end zone, but aside from that, he had one of the worst
games from a running back all season with literally just one yard.
The reality is Michael hasn’t been good all season. He had
a 100-yard game against San Francisco (which means nothing since
the 49ers are a historically bad run defense), but hasn’t
eclipsed 66 yards in any other contest. As soon as Rawls is ready,
the job is his with Prosise as the passing down back. Michael
is going to be completely irrelevant within the next 2-3 weeks
if/when Rawls returns. The Patriots are a middle of the road run
defense and this should be a high scoring affair, but Michael
cannot be trusted in your lineup.
Passing
Game Thoughts: The Seahawks are still a defense that has
allowed just six passing touchdowns on the season and 233.9 passing
yards per game. But Tom Brady does not care about his opponents.
Brady is going to slice through Seattle’s defense just like
any other. I do not downgrade Brady even a little because he’s
facing Seattle. Brady has more passing touchdowns than Russell
Wilson despite having missed the first four games of the season.
Brady is going to be the top fantasy scoring QB by average. He
has 300-plus yards in three of his four games played and multiple
touchdown passes in all of them. He finally threw a touchdown
to Julian Edelman against the Bills two weeks ago, but Edelman’s
usage still is nowhere near where it used to be. Rob Gronkowski,
on the other hand, is still a bad, bad man. There’s really
not much to say about the Patriots. You know who they are. You
know what they do. Start them with confidence.
SEA FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.27
SEA FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.26
SEA FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.26
SEA FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.30
Running Game Thoughts: LeGarrette Blount just has a nose for
the end zone. He has scored in every game except week four against
Buffalo. The Patriots are in the red zone so often that Blount
has ample opportunity to score. He’s the rare case of a
player you can actually rely on for touchdowns. He will be fine
this week. The bigger question is whether Dion Lewis makes his
return and what effect it will have on James White. The Patriots
have predictably been silent on the issue. I think Lewis will
be active, but any guess as to how much he will be used is just
that – a guess. I don’t see him instantly taking White’s
job. White has been fine and it’s not like Lewis is some
special talent that needs to be reinserted into the lineup immediately.
Belichick is fine with whoever is healthy. It doesn’t matter
to him. So it shouldn’t matter to you. Take a wait and see
approach here. White is just a boom or bust option and Lewis needs
to remain on benches until we see his role.
Passing
Game Thoughts: It’s been two weeks since Andy Dalton
and the Bengals played professional football. Their last game
was the above-mentioned London game that resulted in no winner.
I recently picked up Andy Dalton in two leagues, which surprised
me because I did not think he should’ve been available.
Dalton’s numbers aren’t eye popping, but the man has
scored exactly two touchdowns in four consecutive games. Aside
from the game against Denver, which we can disregard because Denver
shuts down all passing games, Dalton has averaged over 300 yards
passing per game and given you at least one score. In a week with
four of the top twelve QBs on bye, Dalton is an excellent option
against a Giants pass defense allowing 277.4 yards passing per
game. Over his last two games, A.J. Green has caught 17 passes
for 290 yards and a touchdown. He’s an elite WR1 and no
match for the Giants secondary. The only concern would come in
the red zone because Dalton’s favorite touchdown machine
is back at full strength. Tyler Eifert looked to be all the way
back after a lackluster debut, grabbing nine balls for 102 yards
and a touchdown in his second game back. With two more weeks to
rest, he will be 100 percent and ready to roast a Giants defense
that just got bullied by Zach Ertz last week (8-97, 100 percent
catch percentage). Brandon LaFell does still play for the Bengals,
but with Eifert back, Dalton has lost interest in his non A.J.
Green receiver.
NYG FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.28
NYG FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.18
NYG FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.15
NYG FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.20
Running Game Thoughts: Jeremy Hill is in the midst of one the
most misleading seasons you’ll ever seen. He is averaging
5.0 yards per carry, but that number is very deceiving as it is
almost entirely a product of one 50 yard scamper against Denver
and his 9-168 line against Cleveland. Other than those two games,
Hill hasn’t averaged better than 3.8 yards per carry in
any single game and has been held under 3.5 yards per carry five
times. He remains a touchdown dependent RB2. Giovani Bernard has
received double digit carries in each of his last five games (really
four, but I cheated and counted his nine carry game in Week 5).
He has ran the ball well enough to fantasy owners’ liking
assuming the receiving numbers are there to follow. Unfortunately,
his reception count has decreased over the last four games (6-4-1-1).
The Giants have actually been very strong against pass catching
RBs so this is not a great matchup for Gio. With his odds of scoring
a touchdown always low, this projects to be more of a Hill week,
although, in all likelihood, it’s Dalton and the passing
game that provide most of the offense.
Passing
Game Thoughts: I take a very schadenfreudian pleasure in
watching Eli Manning fail. The only regret I have over his latest
blunder is that it didn’t actually cost the Giants the game.
Manning threw one of the season’s worst interceptions when
trying to close out last week’s game against the Eagles.
Despite his poor real life performance, Manning had his best fantasy
day of the year with four touchdowns and 257 yards. It was just
his third multi-touchdown game of the season. Two of those scores
went to Odell Beckham, who somehow is the fifth highest scoring
receiver this season. Beckham’s ten targets last week were
encouraging, but only catching four them is not. That blame falls
largely on Manning’s accuracy, or lack thereof. Sterling
Shepard rediscovered the end zone for the first time since Week
3, but he isn’t seeing nearly enough volume to be relevant.
If you start him, you are banking on a touchdown. The Bengals
have allowed 16 passing touchdowns on the season so those in need
of a Monday night bailout from Beckham will have hope.
CIN FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.12
CIN FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.25
CIN FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.4
CIN FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.2
Running Game Thoughts: I am overcome with déjà
vu when writing about the Giants running game because I spent
all of last season saying the same things I’m saying now
– the Giants running game is terrible. Rashad Jennings probably
shouldn’t be in the NFL anymore. Ignore him. The only name
you should care about is Paul Perkins. Perkins is not a special
talent, but he is a serviceable player and deserves to be in the
league. Nothing else has worked so the Giants have no reason not
to give Perkins a shot. Last week, he split carries evenly with
Jennings. I expect that balance to shift a little more in Perkins’
favor this week. The Bengals are vulnerable on the ground, allowing
116.7 rushing yards per game, but the Giants probably can’t
exploit that. The state of the running back position in fantasy
is dire right now, so if you have to start Perkins, I understand
it. I just don’t envy it.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Ryan Tannehill has been one of the league’s
most disappointing players this season and his lack of performance
has really rubbed off on his receivers, particularly Jarvis Landry
who would normally be a great play against this middle-of-the-road
San Diego defense, but has now fallen to be a mid-level WR2. Landry,
who has always been more of a PPR asset given his high target
volume, has failed to catch more than five passes in three of
his past four contests and has not scored a touchdown since he
did scored his first and only time so far this season, back in
Week 3. Additionally, he’s dealing with a shoulder injury
that held him out of practice for much of the week and his playing
status likely won’t be determined until Sunday. The other
two top targets in the Miami passing game, DeVante Parker and
Kenny Stills, are really just lottery ticket type flex options
at the moment due to their inconsistency. This is just not a good
passing game at the moment, so it would be wise to avoid the entire
situation if you have other viable options.
SD FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.9
SD FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.5
SD FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.14
SD FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.11
Running Game Thoughts: Following back-to-back 200-yard rushing
performances, Jay Ajayi’s 111 rushing yards and a touchdown
against the Jets in Week 9 sounded a bit weak, but make no mistake
about it: Ajayi is cruising along and playing as well as any back
in fantasy football at the moment. This breakout star has now
touched the ball between 26 and 29 times in three straight contests
- all wins by the Dolphins - and it’s become clear that
he is the focal point of this Miami offense. The Jets had been
shutting down opposing running games fairly consistently prior
to playing against Ajayi, so fantasy owners should be optimistic
that Ajayi can keep things going against a much worse San Diego
run defense that has already conceded 13 total touchdowns to opposing
running backs this season. Ajayi’s production will be based
largely on volume so the Dolphins defense is going to have to
step up and slow down the San Diego offense if Ajayi is going
to touch the ball around 25 times again, but the floor seems to
be around 15 touches for this young tailback, which certainly
puts him in line to be a solid RB1 in a matchup like this.
Passing
Game Thoughts: The Chargers got off to a 17-0 lead against
the Titans this past week which lead to a more run-heavy approach,
but Philip Rivers and the San Diego passing game as a whole still
had a nice day and continued to show why they are one of the best
overall units in the league despite a plethora of injuries. Rivers
has now thrown for at least 267 yards in six of his past seven
contests with the only exception coming against the Broncos. His
high number of pass attempts has given him a nice floor while
still maintaining a solid ceiling on a week to week basis. His
receivers continue to be unpredictable, however, as Travis Benjamin
was held to one catch for just five yards in Week 9 while Tyrell
Williams caught just one pass for four yards against the Broncos
in Week 4. These two receivers are tied for the team lead with
60 targets while only one other active wide receiver - Dontrelle
Inman - has more than three targets on the entire season. The
other situation to watch in San Diego is the status of rookie
tight end Hunter Henry who is currently listed as questionable
with a knee injury but is practicing in a limited capacity this
week after missing Week 9. Henry is still behind veteran Antonio
Gates on the depth chart, but Gates would get a solid boost into
potentially the elite TE1 range if Henry sits again. The Dolphins
have done a nice job overall against the pass in recent weeks,
but they’ve been against some pretty bad quarterbacks, so
it wouldn’t be surprising to see Rivers throw for a couple
of scores and surpass 250 yards through the air.
MIA FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.17
MIA FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.24
MIA FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.8
MIA FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.21
Running Game Thoughts: Now the top-scoring running back in standard
scoring formats this season, San Diego’s Melvin Gordon continues
to put up monster numbers week after week. Even in standard scoring
formats, Gordon’s worst game of the season came back in
Week 6 against the Broncos when he failed to score a touchdown
but still rushed for 94 yards on the day. Gordon’s usage
has been huge, especially over the past few weeks, and there’s
little reason to believe that it won’t continue this week
at home against a Miami team that just gave up well over six yards
per carry to the Jets this past week. The Dolphins have held opposing
running backs to a total of just three total touchdowns on the
season so far, but Gordon seems to be the Chargers’ top
option near the goal line, so it wouldn’t be at all surprising
to see him find the end zone in this contest. Until he proves
otherwise, Gordon is an elite fantasy back.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Matchups make fantasy football and Colin
Kaepernick proved that this past week when he threw for nearly
400 yards and a pair of touchdowns against the lowly New Orleans
Saints. It was still a blowout loss for the 49ers, but Kaepernick
continues to prove that he can be a great streaming option in
the right matchup. Unfortunately, his Week 10 opponent is not
that type of matchup. Kaepernick and the 49ers will be against
an Arizona defense that has allowed the second-fewest fantasy
points per game to opposing quarterbacks so far this season. In
addition, they’ve allowed the fewest passing touchdowns
(5) against. While Kaepernick is certainly capable of making plays
with his legs to save what is otherwise a bad fantasy day, this
is one of those times when you should probably look elsewhere
for fantasy production. Arizona hasn’t allowed a passing
touchdown since Week 5 and while players like Quinton Patton and
Vance McDonald had some nice performances against the Saints,
they and Kaepernick should remain on your fantasy bench unless
you’re in an absolutely desperate situation.
ARI FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.30
ARI FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.28
ARI FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.28
ARI FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.32
Running Game Thoughts: The San Francisco running game continues
to be a huge question mark as Carlos Hyde is still recovering
from a shoulder injury. Hyde has now missed two contests, including
an additional week for a bye, and is still not a lock to play
on Sunday. While the 49ers and Hyde are optimistic that he’ll
play, the extent of his playing time is still in question even
if he does suit up. Running back DuJuan Harris surprisingly got
the start this past week and performed fairly well and with the
49ers also rostering the likes of Shaun Draughn and Mike Davis,
there’s a good chance that running back by committee approach
will be used in this contest no matter who is active. That, combined
with the Cardinals’ fifth-ranked fantasy run defense, spells
trouble for anyone relying on a San Francisco running back. The
Cardinals have allowed just one team to rush for 100 yards against
them this season and they’re coming off of a bye, fresh
and ready to make a statement in an inner-division game.
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Game Thoughts: After battling through injury for a few
weeks, quarterback Carson Palmer is said to be fully healthy now
and he’s coming off of a bye week, which should give fantasy
owners some hope that he can pick up where he left off in Week
8 when he threw for a season-high 363 yards and three scores against
the Panthers. Who he’ll be throwing to, however, remains
a big question. Top receiver Larry Fitzgerald is dealing with
an ankle injury, but he’s expected to play as usual. After
him, however, there are some huge unknowns. Wide receiver John
Brown is dealing with some complications due to from the sickle-cell
trait and while he could be active, his usage could vary greatly
from week to week without much notice. That makes him extremely
risky for fantasy purposes, of course. Fellow veteran Michael
Floyd seems to be falling out of the good graces of the Arizona
coaching staff and head coach Bruce Arians even indicated that
it was J.J. Nelson - not Floyd - who is currently considered the
Cardinals’ “No. 2” receiver. Nelson had a huge
breakout game including a pair of touchdowns in the Cardinals’
most recent game, so it’s worth noting that he might be
the second-best option behind Fitzgerald at the moment. Still,
it’s risky given the lack of history, so don’t trust
Nelson as anything other than a high-upside Flex play at the moment.
SF FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.10
SF FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.1
SF FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.6
SF FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.17
Running Game Thoughts: Perhaps the league’s best running
back will have his opportunity to feast against the league’s
worst run defense in Week 10 as David Johnson will be against
the 49ers. Johnson has been on a tear all season, accumulating
over 100 total yards in all eight games he’s played while
scoring eight touchdowns. Back in Week 5, Johnson rushed for a
season-high 157 yards and a pair of touchdowns while adding three
catches for 28 yards as a receiver. Needless to say, Johnson is
one of the absolute best plays in all of fantasy football no matter
the opponent, but especially against a 49ers defense that has
now given up at least 174 yards on the ground in five straight
contests. In fact, they’ve allowed a 100-yard rusher in
seven straight games - an NFL record. It would be almost unthinkable
for Johnson to not extend that record to eight games here at home.
The only concern is that the Cardinals get out to such a big lead
early in the game that they end up benching their starters, but
by that time Johnson could have already cracked the 100-yard mark
and scored a few touchdowns. Get him in your lineup this week
and every week.
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