Seahawks @ Cardinals
- (Caron)
Passing Game Thoughts: Seattle quarterback
Russell Wilson has done his job of getting wins for his team this
season but fantasy owners have to be a bit disappointed that the
passer has not gone over 260 yards since Week 1. In addition to
his struggles in yardage, Wilson has not been particularly effective
in the red zone, having thrown just two touchdowns in his past
three games combined. These numbers would typically indicate a
quarterback who is no longer fantasy relevant but Wilson has kept
his place on most fantasy rosters by becoming one of the most
mobile QB’s in the league. He trails only Michael Vick in
rushing yardage and has ran for a combined 240 yards in his past
three games. Wilson’s rushing yardage isn’t random
a surprise. He has taken 10+ carries in four of his six games,
making him one of the most active runners in the league. With
Percy Harvin still not ready to return despite reports that he
is getting “very close,” Wilson has been throwing
to a less-than-stellar group of receivers. Other than a huge Week
3 performance where he caught two touchdown passes, Sidney Rice
has been under four points in every one of his other five games.
Golden Tate has two games in double digits: weeks 3 and 5, but
has been at five or fewer fantasy points in his other games. Doug
Baldwin has been the team’s most consistent wide receiver,
but even he hasn’t inspired a ton of fantasy confidence
as he hasn’t hit double digit fantasy points in a standard
scoring league this season. Tight end Zach Miller returns this
week after an injury has kept him out in recent weeks, but other
than a Week 3 performance against Jacksonville where he caught
two passes for two touchdowns and five total yards, he has been
fantasy irrelevant.
Things don’t get much easier for this group in Week 7 as
they will be up against an underrated Arizona defense that has
done very well against opposing passing games. Arizona has successfully
utilized a “bend but don’t break” secondary.
While they’ve allowed opposing quarterbacks to throw for
at least 250 passing yards in five of their six games, the Cardinals
have allowed just three touchdown passes against, while forcing
six interceptions and three fumbles, over their past three games.
They also contained Colin Kaepernick and Cam Newton on the ground
in back-to-back weeks, allowing just 43 rushing yards between
the two. With no obvious player that Patrick Peterson will be
“shadowing” as the Seahawks don’t have a clear
cut WR1, it’s hard to say which one of the Seattle receivers
will be most fantasy relevant in Week 7. What we do know, however,
is that Golden Tate is seeing the field more than any receiver
on the roster and has led the team in targets in four straight
contests.
Running Game Thoughts: Marshawn Lynch has continued to dominate
this season as he provides premier numbers in all fantasy formats.
His workload (at least 17 carries in every game) has helped create
a level of consistency that has been hard to come by at the position
in 2013. Lynch scored two touchdowns in Week 6 against the Titans
and it could have been more if he didn’t fumble at the 2-yard
line. He’s also been uncharacteristically involved in the
passing game as he caught four passes for 78 yards against the
Titans. He is on pace for 35 receptions, a number which he has
exceeded only once in his seven-year NFL career.
Arizona has been stout against the run for the most part this
season. They have allowed fewer than 85 yards rushing in every
game except Week 6 against the 49ers when they allowed 122 yards.
Even then, the 49ers needed 33 carries (3.7 ypc) to hit their
mark. Arizona has also allowed only one rushing touchdown all
year. Where they have been oddly vulnerable is against backs that
can catch. Their 38 receptions and 316 receiving yards allowed
to running backs are the second-most in the league. While Lynch
is not traditionally much of a pass-catcher, his recent increase
in passing targets from Russell Wilson has to make fantasy owners
interested. Don’t mistake this for Lynch being a sudden
PPR machine but he might be able to hold his own and remain an
elite option even against a tough Arizona defense in Week 7. No
matter the format, Lynch needs to be in your lineup.
Projections:
Russell Wilson: 210 pass yds, 1 TD, 1 INT, 45 rush yds
Marshawn Lynch: 80 rush yds, 2 TD, 25 rec yds
Doug Baldwin: 60 rec yds
Golden Tate: 50 rec yds, 1 TD
Sidney Rice: 40 rec yds
Zach Miller: 30 rec yds
Passing
Game Thoughts: Carson Palmer finally got things going in
Week 6 as he threw for 298 yards and two touchdowns. Although
it came along with two interceptions, it was nice to see Palmer
in double-digit fantasy points (standard scoring) for the first
time since Week 2. On the downside, Palmer has now thrown at least
one interception in every game this season and has thrown multiple
picks in each of his past four games. He is on pace for a ridiculous
29 interceptions, which would be the most by any quarterback since
Brett Favre hit that number back in 2005. Coach Bruce Arians has
defended Palmer and noted that both of his two, first-quarter
interceptions in Week 6 were the receivers’ fault, not Palmer’s.
Still, the concern has to be that Palmer and his receivers just
aren’t on the same page. Larry Fitzgerald has been inconsistent,
but remains a solid fantasy option even in tough matchups. San
Francisco was an elite fantasy defense at shutting down opposing
receivers coming into the game, having allowed just two touchdowns
to opposing receivers in their first five games. Fitzgerald didn’t
let that bother him as he caught six passes for 117 yards and
a touchdown. Those still holding onto Andre Roberts should probably
cut him now with Michael Floyd fully establishing himself as the
team’s WR2. Floyd has caught five passes in each of his
past three games and also caught his first touchdown of the season
against the 49ers.
This unit will be up against a Seahawks secondary that continues
to perform as well in fantasy as they do in real life. They have
allowed five or fewer points to opposing QB’s in half of
their games so far this season and no quarterback has thrown for
more than two touchdowns. Seattle has allowed fewer than 240 passing
yards in five of their six games and just five total passing touchdowns
while forcing nine interceptions on the year. With the Cardinals
passing game being very hit or miss, it seems safe to assume that
Palmer and company will have a tough time putting up huge numbers
this week. Other than perhaps Larry Fitzgerald as a low-end WR2,
none of the other players in this passing game should make fantasy
owners confident as they go up against the Seahawks.
Running Game Thoughts: It hasn’t been a great season for
the Cardinals but running back Andre Ellington officially took
over as the team’s highest-scoring running fantasy back
for 2013 with a nice Week 6 performance where he had 92 total
yards and a touchdown. While it’s true that Rashard Mendenhall
is still getting the majority of carries, having carried the ball
at least 10 times in all but one game, he just hasn’t been
effective. Mendenhall has rushed for just 3.3 yards per carry
on the year while Ellington, behind the same offensive line, has
rushed for 7.0 yards per carry. Ellington has also been significantly
more productive as a receiver, averaging 10.0 yards per reception
compared to Mendenhall’s 6.6 yards per reception. While
this has been a trend all season, it appeared in Week 6 that the
Cardinals had finally realized it for themselves. After Ellington
struggled to even stay close in total snaps played for the first
five weeks, he may have finally taken over as the team’s
RB1 as he played 32 snaps in Week 6 compared to 22 for Mendenhall.
Whoever is carrying the ball on Thursday will have a tough road
ahead of them with the Seahawks playing excellent against opposing
running backs. Running backs have rushed for just 3.4 yards per
carry against Seattle and teams have been under 50 rushing yards
as a unit in half of Seattle’s games. Only one team (Houston)
has gone over 100 rushing yards in any game against the Seahawks
this season and over their past 10 regular season games going
back to 2012, the Seahawks have allowed just five total touchdowns
to opposing running backs. While Andre Ellington is becoming an
intriguing option particularly in PPR formats, it’s going
to be tough to fit him in as anything more than a FLEX play this
week. Rashard Mendenhall, on the other hand, may not even reach
that designation. Don’t be surprised to see both of these
backs in single digits for fantasy point totals, but if you have
to play one, Ellington is certainly the player with the most upside,
particularly in PPR leagues.
Projections:
Carson Palmer: 220 pass yds, 1 TD, 3 INT
Andre Ellington: 40 rush yds, 35 rec yds
Rashard Mendenhall: 35 rec yds, 10 rec yds
Larry Fitzgerald: 70 rec yds
Michael Floyd: 50 rec yds
Prediction: Seahawks 24, Cardinals 13 ^ Top
Bengals @ Lions
- (Anderson)
Passing Game Thoughts: Last week
versus the Bills, Andy Dalton actually had one of his nicer games
in a long time, posting a 337/3 TD/1 INT line and spreading the
ball around to eight different receivers. The star of the receivers
was of course A.J. Green, who led the team with 11 targets and
103 yards on six catches (1 TD). Despite having a fairly talented
group of receivers around him (Eifert, Gresham, Sanu), Green remains
the only relevant receiver on the Bengals, in large part because
of their conservative offense but also because of Dalton’s
inconsistency and the spread of the remaining targets after Green.
There is even an argument to be made that running back Giovani
Bernard is the Bengals' second best receiving option, further
limiting the rest of the Bengals' role-playing receivers.
The matchup with the Lions this week is about average for the
Bengals, as the Lions are better in pass coverage than run defense,
especially excelling in interceptions (10; tied for first in the
NFL) and preventing passing touchdowns (7; tied for ninth). On
the other hand, the Lions give up a healthy amount of yardage
through the air (ranked 21st) and are the 12th most friendly team
to opposing fantasy WR’s thus far. Considering the talent
at quarterback and wide receiver, the matchup, and the circumstances
in the game, this is a “business as usual” game for
the Bengals passing attack; that is, decent stats at the end of
the day but nobody other than Green really standing out as a fantasy
performer. Without a true shutdown corner, and with other less
talented receivers having big games against the Lions this year
(Jerome Simpson for one), Green should be locked and loaded as
a top-end WR1 and a top five guy at the position this week. No
other Bengals receiver is startable at this point, certainly not
in a matchup like this one, which is not particularly juicy. Dalton
remains what he has been all year, a mid-range but unexciting
QB2 that will post decent yardage numbers but fail to wow in any
other area.
Running Game Thoughts: Just when rookie running back Giovani Bernard
looked like he was starting to run away with the Bengals rushing
workload, veteran BenJarvus Green-Ellis stepped up his game last
week and led the team with 86 yards on 18 carries. Of course Bernard
was not shut out, as he did most of his damage through the air,
with six catches for 72 yards and a beautiful touchdown where
he juked and dragged defenders to the end zone. Bernard is clearly
the more attractive option in this backfield, both short and long
term, but as long as BJGE is getting 10 or more touches per game,
both guys’ upsides are limited.
This week the Bengals have a fairly juicy matchup against the
Lions, who are giving up the fourth most rushing yards per game
despite facing a mix of both great (AP, Morris, Forte) and below-average
(McGahee, Mendenhall) running backs. The Lions are also the seventh
most generous defense to opposing fantasy RBs on the year, making
it even more enticing. A closer look at the numbers suggests Bernard
as the better fantasy starter this week, as the Lions have given
up three receiving touchdowns and over 200 yards to opposing running
backs . Bernard, as one of the better receiving backs this year,
could easily see 5 or more catches and 50-plus yards through the
air alone, with the chance of his scoring a touchdown being increased
this week. Bernard is a very solid RB2 this week, and while BJGE
does not have a ton of upside, the nice matchup means he should
be a solid RB3/flex guy in this one.
Projections:
Andy Dalton: 295 pass yds, 2 TDs, 2 INTs
BenJarvus Green-Ellis: 70 rush yds
A.J. Green: 100 rec yds, 1 TD
Giovani Bernard: 40 rush yds, 55 rec yds, 1 TD
Jermaine Gresham: 40 rec yds
Tyler Eifert: 40 rec yds
Mohamed Sanu: 40 rec yds
Passing Game Thoughts: The Lions
offense has not been itself the past two weeks and there is only
one reason for this: the lack of a healthy Calvin Johnson. Two
weeks ago the Lions passing game was awful when Johnson was out,
and last week they were not much better with Johnson mostly playing
the role of a decoy, as he was much less than 100 percent. This
week Johnson should be much healthier than last, which should
totally change how the Lions offense, and the Bengals defense,
plays. With Johnson in the game, Stafford has a guy that he can
throw to at any point and under any circumstance, giving him a
high-upside safety valve as well as a big-play threat. The presence
of Johnson also opens things up for the other Lions receivers
and takes pressure off virtually every other player on offense.
Of course, Johnson will still be at less than 100 percent and
will be covered mostly by Leon Hall, one of the game’s better
defensive backs, so it is not like the Lions will be setting record
books on fire. Still, it is a big advantage to have one of the
NFL’s premier receivers back.
The Bengals defense will look to limit Johnson and the Lions and
might actually have some success, as they are currently ranked
in the top 10 in the league in passing yards allowed per game,
completion percentage allowed, yards per pass attempt allowed,
and sacks. Consequently, the Bengals are also among the 10 toughest
teams in terms of fantasy points allowed to opposing QBs and WRs.
Thanks to some dynamic pass-catching running backs, some solid
possession guys, and Megatron, the Lions should at least be able
to move the chains through the air and compile a healthy amount
of yardage. On the other hand, the Bengals should be able to limit
scoring opportunities and create havoc with their nasty front
seven. While I do not like Stafford to score a ton of points in
this game, he has the weapons to put up a bunch of yards and the
upside to launch a long touchdown bomb or two. Overall, Stafford
is a low-risk, mildly high-upside pick this week as a low-end
QB1. Johnson, if playing (he is expected to), has to be started
sheerly based on talent, and while the matchup is fairly poor
and he is still ailing with a sore knee, he must be considered
a low-end WR1 at worst—but better days are coming. To me,
there are no other Lions receivers really worth starting that
have any kind of attractive upside. Pettigrew is a low-risk/low-reward
but solid PPR TE2, but that is really about it. Yes, I know tight
end Joseph Fauria scored three touchdowns last week, but I would
bet that will be his best game by far this year. Look elsewhere.
Running Game Thoughts: The Lions run game has been up and down
this season, but with Reggie Bush and Joique Bell leading the
way, the possibility of a big game is there nearly every week.
While neither is a traditional running back, fantasy owners are
thrilled this year because both get heavily involved in the game
plan even if the ground game just isn't working that particular
week. Regardless of the matchup, the Lions are a pass-first team
and while the rushing attempts and yardage will not be anywhere
near the top of the league come season’s end, fantasy owners
should be happy to have such a highly productive and versatile
back as Bush this season.
This particular matchup is not a strong one for the Lions run
game, as the Bengals have a strong front seven and are currently
allowing just over 100 yards per game rushing (10th in the NFL).
As far as fantasy goes, the Bengals are the 10th toughest defense
for opposing RBs to score against, but a closer look at the games
they've played reveals that they have gone against only one solid
running back (Matt Forte) that has been healthy. The Bengals rush
defense is certainly legit, but with the way Bush and Bell catch
passes and the attention that Stafford, Megatron, and the Lions
passing game will certainly get from the defense, there should
be some room for the Lions to make a productive fantasy day for
at least one of their running backs. Bush is the better bet, and
while he will certainly get man-handled from time to time, he
should get enough touches and break enough yards off to be a high-end
RB2. Bell continues to be a great handcuff and an occasional flex
player, but in a tougher-than-average matchup he should be nowhere
but sitting on your bench in all but the deepest PPR leagues.
Projections:
Matthew Stafford: 270 pass yds, 2 TDs, 1 INT
Reggie Bush: 55 rush yds, 40 rec yds, 1 TD
Joique Bell: 20 rush yds, 25 rec yds
Calvin Johnson: 80 rec yds, 1 TD
Brandon Pettigrew: 40 rec yds
Kris Durham: 35 rec yds
Prediction: Bengals 28, Lions 27
Browns @ Packers
- (Anderson)
Passing Game Thoughts: Brandon Weeden
is basically who we thought he was, compiling decent yardage stats
through a big volume of throws but otherwise remaining a below-average
quarterback who often looks rattled and slow in his decision-making
process. Against the Lions last week, Weeden accumulated 292 yards
through the air with two touchdowns but also threw two interceptions
and took two big sacks. Thankfully, he did not ruin the fantasy
days for emerging star wide receiver Josh Gordon and tight end
Jordan Cameron, who both ended up with decent stats despite not
visiting the end zone. Moving forward, Gordon and Cameron are
both talented enough and should get enough looks to be fairly
solid options, but it is clear that this offense takes a big step
back with Weeden under center. With the Browns having such a solid
defense, they would love to run the clock down more, but right
now they do not have the personnel to do that, meaning Weeden
will likely continue to throw 35 times a game, at least salvaging
value for Gordon and Cameron.
In this specific matchup, the Packers pass defense remains one
of the friendlier matchups for opposing fantasy QBs (eighth most
generous), WRs (fifth most generous), and TEs (fourth most generous).
As good as that sounds on paper, we have to realize that Weeden
is among the least talented quarterbacks the Packers will have
faced thus far and that playing in Green Bay your first time is
not exactly a pleasant experience. Because the Packers offense
can keep pace with anyone, even when banged up, the volume of
passes should be there again for the Browns this week. And with
Gordon being Weeden’s top option, he should easily see 10
or more targets. While Weeden’s accuracy may be on or off
(or way off), Gordon is a lock for 5 catches and should rack up
at least 70-plus yards because of his speed. He can be deployed
as a safe WR2. While most of Cameron’s catches came in garbage
time last week, the Browns offense features the tight end and
Cameron is their best red zone weapon. He is a solid TE1 this
week, especially in a above-average matchup. No other Browns passing
player, including Weeden, is a recommended start this week, as
they are too inconsistent without the upside of other available
players.
Running Game Thoughts: Other than a fluky 45-yard run by wide
receiver Travis Benjamin, the Browns really struggled on the ground
last week against the Lions, with starter Willis McGahee only
managing 37 yards on 10 carries. Despite having a near-elite defense
that keeps them in most games, the Browns still try to rely on
an air-it-out offense, despite the ineptitude of starting quarterback
Brandon Weeden. With only marginal talent in the backfield, and
a quarterback that doesn't exactly strike fear in the minds of
defenses, the run game is basically an afterthought in Cleveland,
rather than a featured part of their offense. If the matchup was
juicy and the Browns could get an early lead, the run game might
produce enough to be fantasy relevant, but this will not be the
week.
The Packers run defense is currently ranked first in rushing
yards allowed, third in rushing yards per attempt, and ninth toughest
in terms of points allowed to opposing fantasy RBs. They are also
coming off a game where they held Ray Rice (a more talented running
back than any of the Browns) to a mere 34 yards on the ground.
In other words, this is not the week to get cute and start a member
of the Browns running attack. McGahee should be firmly planted
on your bench, as the Browns may need to abandon the run anyway;
although even if they don’t, it will not be pretty. The
only semi-attractive option in this backfield, and only in a PPR
league, would be Chris Ogbonnaya, who is apparently Weeden's main
check-down option (12 targets last week), and therefore should
get four or five catches. But don't expect big yardage numbers
either way. This is a situation to mostly avoid.
Projections:
Brandon
Weeden: 280 pass yds, 2 TDs, 2 INTs
Willis
McGahee: 30 rush yds
Josh
Gordon: 90 rec yds, 1 TD
Jordan
Cameron: 70 rec yds, 1 TD
Chris
Ogbonnaya: 15 rush yds, 35 rec yds
Passing
Game Thoughts: Even a powerful passing team like the Packers
can be brought down to Earth by things like injuries, and Aaron
Rodgers and his crew found that out the hard way when both James
Jones and Randall Cobb exited the game early last week and did
not return. Without two of their main weapons, Rodgers struggled,
completing just over half his passes, taking three sacks, and
getting picked off as many times as he threw touchdowns (1). The
good news for the Packers is that even with losing two talented
players (Jones is questionable this week, Cobb is out), they are
deep enough to still challenge defenses through the air and keep
them honest. While the Packers will look to wide receiver Jarrett
Boykin and perhaps some of their tight ends, there is a good chance
that their other two stud receivers, wideout Jordy Nelson and
tight end Jermichael Finley, will pick up most of the slack left
by the injured receivers. Perhaps Boykin or someone else will
make themselves fantasy-worthy at some point, but in a very tough
matchup this week, the chances are slim that anyone is going to
have a breakout game.
The Browns are currently eighth best in the NFL in passing yardage
allowed per game, seventh best in completion percentage allowed,
best in yards per pass attempt allowed, and sixth in sacks. With
a very formidable front seven and a true lockdown corner in Joe
Haden, the Browns have very few weaknesses on defense and are
a quarterbacks nightmare. Fantasy-wise the Browns are the second
toughest team for WRs to score against and the eighth toughest
for QBs. All in all, even an elite offense like the Packers can
be slowed down by a legit defense, and coming into the game banged
up certainly doesn't help. While Aaron Rodgers will not have one
of his best games of the year, he is simply too talented to bench
this week, or ever. He's not an elite option at QB this week but
should still rack up enough stats to be considered a lower-end
QB1. Jordy Nelson will probably be the guy to draw coverage from
Haden most of the game, and while this severely limits his upside,
he will probably be force-fed at least eight targets, making him
a relatively safe WR2. The guy I like the most this week is actually
Finley, who should see an uptick in targets, is coming off a nice
game, and plays the one position the Browns have been more generous
too in terms of fantasy points (15th). He should be a nice TE1
this week. If James Jones plays, he will likely see a bunch of
targets, especially if Haden is covering Nelson, so I like him
as a starter, but more of a WR3 with upside but some risk because
of his injury. No other Packer in the passing game is worth a
look until we see how Rodgers will spread the love without Cobb.
Running Game Thoughts: With James
Jones and Randall Cobb on the sideline in last week’s second
half, the Packers ran the ball 59 percent of the time, which is
a ton for them seeing as they are normally a very pass-heavy team.
With Cobb out for sure this week and Jones questionable, the Packers
may once again lean heavily on running back Eddie Lacy, who has
proven very effective when healthy. In his past two games Lacy
has averaged 23 carries and 110 yards on the ground while taking
the lion's share of the workload in the backfield. He has looked
powerful, decisive, and explosive and the Packers line has opened
some nice holes for him.
This week’s matchup against the Browns' elite front seven,
which is seventh in the league in rush yards allowed per game,
is certainly not ideal. But there are some reasons to be excited
as a Lacy owner. First, the Packers offense is still good enough
to score on the Browns and get a lead going, possibly meaning
more opportunities for Lacy. The fact the Browns offense is below-average
only helps in this way as well. Second, the Packers are at home
and the Brows are giving up slightly more rush yards in road games.
Finally, while the Browns are fairly stingy in terms of yardage,
they have actually given up the most rushing touchdowns in the
entire NFL thus far. What this all means to me is that Lacy may
not be breaking any rushing records this week, but if you combine
opportunity, circumstance, momentum, and the rushing touchdowns
stat, he should be a competent low-end RB1 this week. It’s
not a perfect matchup but the Lacy train has some steam and should
continue chug along.
Projections:
Aaron
Rodgers: 255 pass yds, 2 TDs, 15 rush yds
Eddie
Lacy: 95 rush yds, 1 TD, 10 rec yds
Jordy
Nelson: 55 rec yds, 1 TD
James
Jones: 40 rec yds
Jermichael
Finley: 90 rec yds, 1 TD
Jarrett
Boykin: 35 rec yds
Prediction: Packers 24, Browns 16
Ravens @ Steelers
- (Anderson)
Passing Game Thoughts: Against a
fairly weak Packers pass defense last week, the Ravens finally
showed some life in the passing game, accumulating 342 yards and
two touchdowns. Part of this was because of the above-average
matchup, but it also had to do with the return of a full receiving
corps, with wide receiver Jacoby Jones and wide receiver Marlon
Brown both playing. While the trio of Torrey Smith, Jones and
Brown is certainly not elite, it does give Flacco a nice combination
of speed and size and allows him to spread the ball around with
more efficiency. With the exception of Smith, who actually had
his first bad game of the year last week, the Ravens receiving
group is too inconsistent to be attractive from a fantasy standpoint,
but in certain matchups they may be useful, and should provide
some stability for Joe Flacco’s fantasy value.
Unfortunately for the Ravens passing game, this matchup with the
Steelers could be one to forget. Pittsburgh currently ranks fourth
in passing yardage allowed per game, first in passing touchdowns
allowed, and 11th in completion percentage allowed. On top of
that, they are the toughest team opposing fantasy QBs to face
for and are among the 10 toughest for WRs and TEs. With a lockdown
corner in Ike Taylor, the upside of the Ravens passing game is
limited in this matchup... yet all hope is not lost. The Steelers
actually rank next to last in sacks, meaning Flacco should have
some time to throw, and his receivers that possess elite speed
(Smith and Jones) should have time to get deep. It takes just
one long touchdown bomb to go from a below-average to a solid
fantasy day, and with Flacco’s arm and his receivers' speed,
this is certainly possible. Make no mistake about it, this is
not a good matchup for the Ravens, especially traveling to Pittsburgh,
but it is not so bad that I would entirely abandon this group
either. Flacco has never been a solid QB1 and he is certainly
far from that here, but with all his receivers back from injury
and a nice rhythm going last week, I think he is safe to put out
there as a QB2, in that 13–15 range. As for Smith, he may
draw a lot of Taylor’s coverage, which is not good for a
wide receiver who is not very physical. Yet considering his deep
speed and the way he has been playing, I would feel fine about
starting him, although he is more low-end WR2 than low-end WR1
this week. The guy I would trust next would be Jones, who may
draw easier coverage and break a deep one or two. The Ravens have
publicly stated this week that they want to get Jones more action,
and what better time to start than now. He's a low-end WR3 against
Pittsburgh. Marlon Brown has put together a nice start to his
career and may still be a nice red zone target with his size,
but considering his place on the depth chart, he falls to a high-upside
WR4 this week. Even though tight end Dallas Clark had a nice game
last week, he is too inconsistently involved in the game plan
to make him anything other than a low-upside TE2.
Running Game Thoughts: A week after the Ravens recommitted to
the run and had their best game on the ground (versus Miami) they
reverted back to their old ways against the Packers and put up
a combined 47 yards on the ground. The game was never really out
of reach, so it is puzzling why Baltimore attempted only 22 runs
just one week after Ray Rice attempted 27 runs just by himself.
You would think by now the Ravens would realize that the formula
for success goes through committing to the run, but apparently
they still do not get it. For Rice (and Pierce) fantasy owners,
it is a frustrating situation because both backs obviously have
a ton of talent and have had past success, but both are being
underutilized in the ground game. What makes things worse is that
it's impossible to say whether this will turn around or not.
What we can look at is the current matchup, and while a trip to
Pittsburgh is normally not a good way to get back on track, the
matchup is actually more favorable than it has been in recent
years. Currently the Steelers are letting up the 11th most rush
yards on a per game average and have given up at least one touchdown
to an opposing running back in every game they have played this
year. This would coincide with their currently being the sixth
most generous defense to opposing fantasy RBs. While the Steelers
held the Jets to just 83 yards on the ground last week, the Jets'
stable of backs is at least a full notch below the Ravens' talent-wise.
A better indicator would probably be the numbers they let up to
guys like Giovani Bernard (66 total yds, 2 TDs), Matt Forte (111
total yds, 2 TDs), and Adrian Peterson (140 yds, 2 TDs). While
it is tough to predict a much bigger workload for the Ravens run
game, the matchup is favorable and the talent there makes them
too hard to ignore. Rice can no longer be trusted as a consistent
RB1, but the matchup is nice enough to make him a very solid RB2
with the hope of more if the Ravens up his workload. With Rice
healthy, Pierce is not getting much work, so he is off the radar
this week unless you are in a PPR league and want to roll him
out as an RB3.
Projections:
Joe Flacco: 255 pass yds, 2 TDs, 1 INT
Torrey Smith: 50 rec yds
Ray Rice: 70 rush yds, 1 TD, 20 rec yds
Marlon Brown: 30 rec yds
Jacoby Jones: 50 rec yds
Bernard Pierce: 20 rush yds, 30 rec yds
Dallas Clark: 30 rec yds
Passing Game Thoughts: It took a
little time and they are still not where they want to be, but
the Steelers passing game is coming around finally much to the
rejoice of Pittsburgh fans and fantasy managers alike. Against
a solid Jets defense last week Ben Roethlisberger was an efficient
23/30 while throwing for 264 yards and a touchdown. Wide receiver
Antonio Brown continues to be the main beneficiary of Ben’s
throws, catching a whopping 30 balls and two touchdowns for nearly
400 yards over his last three games. Tight end Heath Miller has
added some stability to the Steelers offense, and while not a
huge fantasy contributor yet, he has been consistent with the
targets and catches he has gotten. Finally, wide receiver Emmanuel
Sanders caught his first touchdown of the year last week, and
while he has not come close to what Mike Wallace was doing for
the Steelers, he has at least been a consistent contributor. With
momentum on their side, a healthy receiving corps and a home game,
the Steelers passing attack looks poised to have a nice second
half of the season.
Not so fast though, as the Ravens defense has been good and getting
better almost every week. After opening the NFL season in Denver
and getting totally destroyed by Peyton Manning, the Ravens defense
has actually had a quietly nice turnaround. Currently they are
17th in passing yards allowed per game and 17th in passing touchdowns
allowed, but over the past five weeks are actually among the eight
best in those same categories. In addition, the Ravens have allowed
the 10th lowest completion percentage to opposing quarterbacks
on the year and have recorded the second most sacks in the NFL.
What this all means is that besides that one really bad game,
the Ravens defense is actually one of the best units in the league,
and they have clearly not even reached their potential yet, with
so many new players learning to work together in different situations.
While I like what the Steelers are doing in their passing game,
and Big Ben should be productive going forward with a full and
healthy receiving group, this week could be a big struggle for
them, especially seeing that their offensive line is a weak point
and the Ravens pass rush is elite. I expect the Steelers to put
up a fairly healthy amount of yards through the air because of
the volume of passes they will throw, but I do not foresee many
touchdowns and I do foresee a unhealthy amount of sacks and turnovers
for the Steelers offense, making it an ugly day overall. To me,
Big Ben has the upside to be an occasionally solid QB1 if the
matchup is right, but in this game it is not, and he is nothing
more than a low to mid-tier QB2. Brown continues to be a target
hog and is flirting with WR1 status this year, but the matchup
and a lack of touchdowns severely limits him this week. He's more
of a low-end WR2 in this one. As for Sanders and Miller, they're
in the same boat: solid contributors to the offense this week
but not enough to warrant them as legit starters. Miller is a
mid-range TE2, and Sanders a very low-end WR3.
Running Game Thoughts: In each of his first two games, Le'Veon
Bell received 16 carries. Against a fairly soft run defense (Vikings),
Bell put up 57 yards and two touchdowns with those carries, a
very solid fantasy day. Against a stout Jets run defense, he managed
only 34 yards and no touchdowns, a very poor fantasy day. It is
obviously a small sample size, but what we can take from these
games is that Bell is probably not good enough at this point to
overcome a tough matchup, though he is good enough to exploit
a fairly favorable matchup.
In this specific case, this week, Bell and the Steelers may be
in trouble. The Ravens currently allow the second fewest fantasy
points to opposing RBs, and that comes after facing some solid
guys in Arian Foster, Eddie Lacy, and Knowshon Moreno, all overall
good fantasy backs this year. The Ravens are seventh in rushing
yards allowed per game and first in rushing touchdowns allowed,
with just one. While even the toughest matchups can be overcome,
the Steelers' line is simply not that good and will be way overmatched
in this contest. Add that to the fact that Bell, while talented,
is still plying in just the third game of his professional career,
and you could have a recipe for disaster. I like Bell as a solid
low- to mid-range RB2 the rest of the year, but in this matchup
I just don't see how he is any better than an average RB3 or flex
guy. As long as Bell is healthy, no other Pittsburgh RB is worth
considering in fantasy.
Projections:
Ben Roethlisberger: 240 pass yds, 1 TD, 2 INTs
Antonio Brown: 70 rec yds
Emmanuel Sanders: 45 rec yds
Le’Veon
Bell: 30 rush yds, 15 rec yds
Heath Miller: 50 rec yds
Prediction: Ravens 27, Steelers 24
Rams at Panthers
- (Smith)
Passing Game Thoughts: Sam Bradford
is only 18th in the league in passing yards, but his 13 touchdown
throws rank fifth, helping him place 12th among QBs in FPts/G.
With the Rams rediscovering their running game of late, he has
thrown fewer passes, leading to lesser totals for both Bradford
and his receiving corps. St. Louis does not have a fantasy-worthy
pass-catcher at either wideout or tight end, with the two most
likely choices, Tavon Austin and Jared Cook, failing to do much
recently. Neither figures to break that trend this week against
the Panthers.
Though Carolina is tied with San Diego for highest opponents’
completion percentage allowed this season, they are also tied
for fewest passing scores surrendered and top-10 in pass defense
and interceptions. Just one team has relinquished fewer FPts/G
to QBs than the Panthers, who have also given up the eighth-fewest
FPts/G to WRs and the 11th-fewest to TEs.
Running Game Thoughts: It took the Rams a while but they have
finally found their running back in rookie fifth-round pick Zac
Stacy. After getting just a single carry through the first four
games of the season, Stacy became the go-to-guy the last two weeks
and ran for 78 and 79 yards respectively. The team still does
not run the ball near the goal line, with St. Louis being the
lone team in the league yet to score a rushing touchdown, hindering
Stacy’s fantasy value. That figures to change eventually
but it won’t be easy against Carolina.
Just three teams in the NFL have yielded fewer rushing yards per
game than the Panthers, who are also tied for third in rushing
scores allowed and are giving up only 3.8 YPC, which is ninth
in the league. Carolina is surrendering the 10th-fewest FPts/G
to running backs, and has not allowed a running back to gain 65
or more yards since Week 2.
Projections:
Sam Bradford: 240 pass yds, 2 TD, 1 INT
Chris Givens: 75 rec yds
Tavon Austin: 55 rec yds, 1 TD
Jared Cook: 35 rec yds
Austin Pettis: 30 rec yds
Lance Kendricks: 20 rec yds, 1 TD
Zac Stacy: 65 rush yds
Daryl Richardson: 20 rush yds, 15 rec yds
Passing Game Thoughts: Cam Newton
has not offered fantasy owners the bang for the buck they figured
they were getting when drafting him. He is 25th in passing yards
and tied for 10th in touchdown throws, but still ranks eighth
at his position in FPts/G because he does have 153 yards and two
scores on the ground. Still, it’s hard to figure which Panthers
receiver will get the ball in a given game. Greg Olsen, Ted Ginn,
Steve Smith, and Brandon LaFell each have between 220 and 292
receiving yards this season, and each has at least one touchdown
grab, though LaFell leads with three. Olsen is banged up, but
it would not be surprising to see any of the three wideouts have
a solid day versus St. Louis.
After initially struggling to stop the pass, the Rams have rebounded
somewhat. They are 17th in the league in pass defense, have not
allowed more than 210 passing yards to a QB since Week 2 and have
not yielded multiple touchdown throws to a QB in their last two
games. And though St. Louis has allowed the ninth-most FPts/G
to WRs, they have given up the 10th-fewest to TEs.
Running Game Thoughts: With Jonathan Stewart still out and only
recently returning to practice, DeAngelo Williams has paced the
Carolina rushing attack. He is 10th in the league in rushing yards,
but the team’s four rushing touchdowns have been scored
by Newton and Mike Tolbert, meaning Williams is averaging fewer
than 10 FPts/G. If Williams is going to find the end zone, chances
are it will be this week against a porous Rams rush defense.
Awful isn’t really how to describe the St. Louis run defense.
Statistically there may be worse teams, as they rank 30th in run
defense, tied for 25th in rushing scores allowed and are 26th
in YPC yielded, they have been gashed repeatedly. Only the Vikings
are allowing more FPts/G to running backs than the Rams, and for
a quick reason on why, just take a look at the combined rushing/receiving
yards gained by some of their opponents: Frank Gore – 153,
Arian Foster – 198, DeMarco Murray – 203.
Projections:
Cam Newton: 235 pass yds, 1 TD, 1 INT, 40 rush yds
Steve Smith: 70 rec yds, 1 TD
Brandon LaFell: 65 rec yds
Greg Olsen: 40 rec yds
Ted
Ginn, Jr.: 25 rec yds
DeAngelo Williams: 105 rush yds, 1 TD, 20 rec yds
Mike Tolbert: 35 rush yds, 1 TD
Prediction: Panthers 24, Rams 20
Chargers at Jaguars
- (Smith)
Passing Game Thoughts: Through six
games, Philip Rivers has thrown for less than 200 yards twice.
But he has also thrown for more than 400 yards on three occasions,
a bizarre contrast but one that his fantasy owners probably don’t
mind. Not a lot was expected of Rivers this season, but he’s
fourth at his position in FPts/G, tied for second in touchdown
throws and third in passing yards. The team’s leading pass-catchers
are Antonio Gates and Danny Woodhead, who have each snared 36
receptions, and a new fantasy star may be budding in rookie wideout
Keenan Allen. He has 100+ receiving yards and a touchdown in each
of his last two games, and I’d confidently put him as my
WR3 or flex against the Jaguars.
Jacksonville is 14th in the league in pass defense and has allowed
the 11th-fewest FPts/G to QBs, but those are misleading numbers.
Teams have taken big leads against the Jags, allowing them to
run the ball more in the second half. More appropriate to look
at is the fact that Jacksonville is tied for most passing scores
surrendered, they’re tied for 12th-most FPts/G given up
to WRs and have allowed the seventh-most FPts/G to TEs.
Running Game Thoughts: Ryan Mathews is once again failing to do
very much this season, ranking 17th in the league in rushing,
running for less than 4.0 YPC, and failing to score a rushing
touchdown. In fact, despite having 52 more carries and almost
200 more rushing yards than fellow back Woodhead, Mathews is trailing
his teammate in FPts/G by more than two points. But Mathews is
facing Jacksonville this week, which means he belongs in fantasy
lineups.
No team in the NFL is allowing more rushing yards per game than
the Jaguars, just one team has given up more rushing scores and
only four teams have yielded a higher YPC average. Though they’ve
only allowed one back to gain 100 yards against them, Jacksonville
consistently allows yards, as evidenced by the fact that six different
backs have picked up 60 or more yards when facing them. What follows,
of course, are fantasy points, with the Jaguars having allowed
the fifth-most FPts/G in the league to running backs.
Projections:
Philip Rivers: 290 pass yds, 3 TD
Antonio Gates: 85 rec yds, 1 TD
Keenan Allen: 80 rec yds, 1 TD
Vincent Brown: 35 rec yds
Eddie Royal: 15 rec yds
Ryan Mathews: 80 rush yds, 1 TD, 20 rec yds
Danny Woodhead: 20 rush yds, 45 rec yds, 1 TD
Passing Game Thoughts: With Blaine
Gabbert out again this week due to a hamstring malady, Chad Henne
will continue to take the snaps under center for Jacksonville.
Henne is arguably the better quarterback, though neither is NFL-starter
caliber, and thus not relevant to fantasy leagues. The team does
have a couple of receivers that are relevant to fantasy owners
in Cecil Shorts and Justin Blackmon. While Shorts has an injured
shoulder and is questionable, Blackmon is anything but. In the
two games since he returned from a four-game suspension to start
the season, the former Oklahoma State star has 136 and 190 receiving
yards respectively on 19 catches with one touchdown. That’s
a torrid pace which Blackmon won’t be able to continue but
he should be in the starting lineups of all fantasy owners this
week against San Diego.
While I acknowledge that the Chargers held Andrew Luck in check
last week, it doesn’t change the fact that stopping the
pass has been a season-long challenge for San Diego. They are
25th in the league in pass defense, tied for last in opponents’
completion percentage allowed, tied for 19th in sacks and tied
for 28th with just a pair of interceptions all year. Only four
squads have given up more FPts/G to QBs and just five have ceded
more FPts/G to WRs, and that’s with their success against
the Colts last week.
Running Game Thoughts: It’s possible that Maurice Jones-Drew
may simply be out of gas as a running back in this league. It
can happen suddenly to even the best of backs, and at 28 years
old with a lengthy injury history, MJD just cannot be counted
on by fantasy owners anymore. He is 21st in the league in rushing,
is averaging only 3.0 YPC and though he’s shown more life
in the last two weeks than early in the season, his opportunities
will be limited due to Jacksonville’s propensity to fall
behind. It certainly won’t help this week that Jones-Drew
faces a Chargers defense that has squashed most running backs’
fantasy numbers.
With their opposition having so much success airing it out against
them, San Diego has not had much work against running backs. They
are 29th in the league in YPC allowed, but tied for 17th in rush
defense and have given up only two scores on the ground all season.
None of those have come via running backs, which makes them one
of just two teams in the NFL not to have allowed a rushing score
to a RB, and means they have surrendered the fewest FPts/G in
the league to opposing RBs.
Projections:
Chad Henne: 220 pass yds, 2 TD, 2 INT
Justin Blackmon: 90 rec yds, 2 TD
Cecil Shorts: 50 rec yds
Ace Sanders: 35 rec yds
Marcedes Lewis: 20 rec yds
Maurice Jones-Drew: 65 rush yds, 15 rec yds
Prediction: Chargers 31, Jaguars 17
49ers at Titans
- (Smith)
Passing Game Thoughts: Minus Mario
Manningham and Michael Crabtree, the 49ers’ passing game
comes down to Vernon Davis and Anquan Boldin. That can make things
difficult for Colin Kaepernick, and is at least part of the reason
why he’s only 23rd in passing yards and tied for 12th in
touchdown throws. Kaepernick does have 172 rushing yards this
year, but has not run for a score and his fantasy production is
way down from where most expected. Boldin has cooled off considerably
as well, with only 49 yards and no scores his last two games,
though Davis has more than picked up the slack. He is second among
tight ends in FPts/G, has 85+ yards in three of his five games
this year and has a good match-up this week against Tennessee.
The Titans rank in the top-10 in pass defense, passing touchdowns
allowed and sacks, so it makes sense that they are surrendering
the fifth-fewest FPts/G to QBs in the league. Despite allowing
quarterbacks to throw for 245 or more yards in four of their five
games, the Titans have yielded multiple scoring passes just once
all season. They’ve struggled somewhat against quality tight
ends, allowing the 13th-most FPts/G to players at that position
overall, but have given up the fifth-fewest FPts/G to WRs.
Running Game Thoughts: As uneven as San Francisco’s passing
game has seemed to be, Frank Gore has emerged from a slow start
to pace the team and provide for his fantasy owners. In his last
four games, Gore has run for 82, 153, 81, and 101 yards with a
pair of touchdowns. He’s not catching the ball much, with
only five receptions all year, but still ranks 12th in FPts/G
among running backs, and is a RB1 this week against the Titans.
Tennessee has been below average against the rush this season.
They rank 19th in rush defense, tied for 20th in rushing scores
given up and are 24th in YCP allowed. They’ve allowed just
one running back to pick up 100 yards against them, but four have
gained at least 75 and they’ve also allowed the fifth-most
receiving yards to running backs. Add it all up and you have a
Titans team that is surrendering the ninth-most FPts/G in the
league to RBs.
Projections:
Colin Kaepernick: 220 pass yds, 1 TD, 45 rush yds, 1 TD
Vernon Davis: 105 rec yds, 1 TD
Anquan Boldin: 55 rec yds
Kyle Williams: 35 rec yds
Frank Gore: 90 rush yds, 1 TD
Kendall Hunter: 30 rush yds, 15 rec yds
Passing Game Thoughts: Since taking
over for Jake Locker during Week 3, Ryan Fitzpatrick has had his
moments, but has been mediocre. In fairness, he has faced tough
opposition in the Chiefs and Seahawks. In his two games as a starter,
Fitzpatrick has thrown one touchdown and four interceptions, though
he also ran for one score and has 83 yards on the ground, boosting
the little fantasy value he does have. The Harvard grad has a
plethora of solid yet unspectacular receiving options, with their
best being Nate Washington who ranks only 35th in FPts/G at wideout
making him a decent play depending on match-up. This week is not
one of those match-ups.
Other than sacks, the 49ers are a top-10 unit in virtually all
categories concerning pass defense. They’ve allowed the
seventh-fewest FPts/G to QBs, the 10th-fewest to WRs and ninth-fewest
to TEs. San Francisco has given up 205 or fewer passing yards
to four of the six quarterbacks they’ve faced this year
and only once since Week 1 has a wide receiver gained at least
65 yards when facing them.
Running Game Thoughts: There may not be a more confounding player
to fantasy owners than Chris Johnson. It’s impossible to
know what you’ll get from him on a week-to-week basis –
he could run for 180 yards one game and follow that up with 25
yards. This year, Johnson ran for 70 or more yards in his first
three games and less than 35 in his last three. He still has not
scored a rushing touchdown, though the 49ers will offer him a
prime opportunity to change that this week.
San Francisco is ranked 11th in the league in YPC allowed, but
they’re 20th in rush defense and – most surprisingly
– tied with Jacksonville for second-most rushing scores
yielded on the season. The 49ers have allowed three backs to gain
at least 95 yards against them in their six games and though they’ve
stopped backs from being much of a receiving threat, are still
surrendering the eighth-most FPts/G in the league to RBs.
Projections:
Ryan Fitzpatrick: 205 pass yds, 1 TD, 2 INT, 25 rush yds
Nate Washington: 55 rec yds
Kendall Wright: 45 rec yds
Damian Williams: 40 rec yds
Delanie Walker: 30 rec yds, 1 TD
Justin Hunter: 15 rec yds
Chris Johnson: 65 rush yds, 1 TD, 10 rec yds
Jackie Battle: 20 rush yds
Prediction: 49ers 24, Titans 20
Broncos at Colts
- (Smith)
Passing Game Thoughts: There isn’t
much to be given in the way of analysis here, is there? Peyton
Manning has thrown 20 more touchdowns than interceptions, is currently
the only quarterback with more than 2,000 passing yards and is
averaging more than 30 FPts/G. As for his receivers, fantasy owners
can and should be starting Demaryius Thomas, Wes Welker, Eric
Decker, and Julius Thomas every week, even against Indianapolis.
The Colts have been impressive against the pass by any definition.
They rank fifth in the league in pass defense, tied for third
in touchdown passes ceded, ninth in opponents’ completion
percentage allowed, tied for ninth in sacks and tied for 11th
in interceptions. Indy is tied for eighth-fewest FPts/G surrendered
to QBs, are giving up the 13th-fewest FPts/G to WRs and the eighth-fewest
to TEs.
Running Game Thoughts: Surprisingly, the lead dog in the Denver
backfield has not been Montee Ball or Ronnie Hillman, but Knowshon
Moreno. The former first-round pick is 13th in the league in rushing
yards, has a YPC average of 4.7 and his seven rushing scores are
two more than any other back. Add it all up and you have a guy
who is fifth at his position in FPts/G and making his owners look
smart and those who took Ball, angry.
Indianapolis may be good against the pass but they are anything
but when facing the run – though not necessarily running
backs. Only Jacksonville is surrendering more rushing yards per
game than Indy, who is also 27th in YPC allowed and tied for 15th
in rushing scores given up. And while the Colts have allowed four
different players to reach 100 rushing yards this season, two
of those have been quarterbacks. They also haven’t allowed
a rushing score to a running back in their previous three games,
which is why, despite their poor overall numbers, they are tied
for seventh-fewest FPts/G allowed to RBs.
Projections:
Peyton Manning: 320 pass yds, 4 TD
Demaryius Thomas: 95 rec yds, 2 TD
Wes Welker: 80 rec yds, 1 TD
Eric Decker: 55 rec yds
Julius Thomas: 35 rec yds, 1 TD
Knowshon Moreno: 85 rush yds, 1 TD, 15 rec yds
Ronnie Hillman: 20 rush yds, 20 rec yds
Montee Ball: 15 rush yds, 10 rec yds
Passing Game Thoughts: Andrew Luck’s
sophomore campaign through the NFL hasn’t been bad but hasn’t
been what fantasy owners were hoping for. He has just a single
game with more than 260 passing yards, has yet to throw three
touchdowns in a contest and would be far lower than 16th among
QBs in FPts/G if not for his two rushing scores and 150 yards
on the ground. Luck’s mediocre passing totals have rubbed
off on his receiving corps, so even though Reggie Wayne is 13th
in receiving yards on the year, he’s not in the top-20 among
wideouts in FPts/G due to his lackluster two touchdowns. Still,
a date with the Broncos has a way of making other teams’
passing numbers explode.
Denver has failed to stop the pass much at all this season, though
it should be noted that teams are often trying to play catch-up,
forcing them to throw. Nonetheless, they are last in the NFL in
pass defense, and every team they’ve faced has thrown for
at least 297 yards. The Broncos are fifth in in FPts/G given up
to QBs, 12th in FPts/G allowed to TEs, and at least in part because
five different wideouts have accumulated 115 or more yards in
a game against them, only two teams have yielded more FPts/G to
WRs.
Running Game Thoughts: Most observers figured Trent Richardson
would be the next great back in the NFL after he was drafted third
overall last season. Maybe that will happen, but to date he has
not looked impressive. Richardson is averaging only 3.1 YPC this
year, has not run for more than 60 yards in any game and has stopped
being a receiving threat since joining the Colts, further diminishing
his fantasy value. With Indy likely going to throw the ball so
much, I don’t foresee a big game for Richardson this week
against Denver.
With teams throwing the ball so much against the Broncos, it should
come as no surprise that they lead the NFL in rushing defense.
That’s not to say they are slouches when teams do run it,
as Denver is giving up just 3.2 YPC, which is second in the league.
Yet they’ve also yielded six rushing scores (all to running
backs), which is tied for 25th, and even though they’ve
only allowed two backs to gain at least 45 yards, and none to
pick up at least 75, they are still in the middle of the pack
in fantasy terms ranking 15th in FPts/G ceded to RBs.
Projections:
Andrew Luck: 315 pass yds, 3 TD, 1 INT, 15 rush yds
Reggie Wayne: 110 rec yds, 2 TD
T.Y. Hilton: 80 rec yds
Coby Fleener: 55 rec yds, 1 TD
Darrius Heyward-Bey: 35 rec yds
Trent Richardson: 45 rush yds, 1 TD, 10 rec yds
Donald Brown: 20 rush yds, 15 rec yds
Prediction: Broncos 38, Colts 30
Buccaneers at Falcons
- (Smith)
Passing Game Thoughts: Mike Glennon
hasn’t been bad in his debut in the league and threw for
276 yards with two scores and one pick last week against the Eagles.
Having Vincent Jackson helps and though he has only a pair of
touchdowns this season (both coming last week) you have to figure
the pair will only grow more comfortable with each other. Mike
Williams has yet to take off, but Atlanta should offer the opportunity
considering their troubles in pass defense this season.
The Falcons rank among the worst teams in the league at stopping
the pass. They are 26th in pass defense, tied for 26th in touchdown
throws allowed, 29th in opponents’ completion percentage
allowed, 27th in sacks, and tied for 24th in interceptions. And
yes, that does mean they give up a lot of fantasy points, in case
you were wondering. Every quarterback they’ve faced has
thrown for at least a pair of touchdowns against Atlanta, who
have allowed the seventh-most FPts/G to QBs, the fourth-most to
WRs and the sixth-most to TEs.
Running Game Thoughts: Doug Martin is ninth in the NFL in rushing,
but has a YPC average of 3.5, and his yard total can be directly
related to the fact that he has 20 or more rushes in all but one
game this season. The second-year pro has just a single rushing
score this season and is in for a challenge this week against
the Falcons, who have stymied most opposing backs.
Just five teams are allowing fewer rushing yards per contest than
Atlanta, who is also tied for third in rushing scores surrendered
but 21st in YPC allowed. The success teams have had throwing the
ball against them has a lot to do with it as no back has more
than 12 carries against the Falcons. Still, they haven’t
allowed more than 64 yards to a back this season and are yielding
the 12th-fewest FPts/G to RBs in the NFL.
Projections:
Mike Glennon: 255 pass yds, 2 TD, 2 INT
Vincent Jackson: 90 rec yds, 1 TD
Mike Williams: 80 rec yds, 1 TD
Tim Wright: 35 rec yds
Chris Owusu: 15 rec yds
Doug Martin: 75 rush yds, 25 rec yds
Passing Game Thoughts: Matt Ryan
has lost Julio Jones and Roddy White is a shell of himself due
to leg injuries that may prevent him from playing this week. Needless
to say, this is not what fantasy owners had in mind when they
drafted him. Still, he does have a reliable tight end in Tony
Gonzalez to throw to, and Harry Douglas should be on all fantasy
rosters now. Ryan’s fantasy value will take a hit, but he’s
still a player fantasy owners will want in their lineups against
the Bucs.
Tampa has done a solid job in pass coverage this year, ranking
16th in the league in pass defense and tied for 12th in passing
scores allowed. Though they’ve surrendered the 14th-most
FPts/G to QBs and 11th-most to TEs, they’ve also given up
the 14th-fewest FPts/G to WRs.
Running Game Thoughts: With Steven Jackson still out with an injury,
Jacquizz Rodgers and Jason Snelling have taken over the running
back duties. They have performed admirably, with Rodgers scoring
twice in their last game and continuing to be a pass-catching
threat. However, neither player is at the level of a Steven Jackson
and until he gets back, the Atlanta backfield does not offer much
to fantasy owners especially this week against Tampa.
The Bucs have been very tough against opposing runners this season,
ranking 13th in rush defense but also eighth in YPC allowed. They
have yielded just a single rushing score all year, which is tied
for fewest in the NFL and that rush was not by a running back.
That puts them in a category with the Chargers for the only team
yet to allow a back to find the end zone. Yet Tampa has also surrendered
the ninth-most receiving yards to runners, so instead of being
elite against backs, they are simply very, very good, and are
tied with the Colts for seventh-fewest FPts/G allowed to RBs.
Projections:
Matt Ryan: 270 pass yds, 3 TD, 1 INT
Tony Gonzalez: 70 rec yds, 2 TD
Harry Douglas: 65 rec yds, 1 TD
Brian Robiskie: 30 rec yds
Kevin Cone: 25 rec yds
Roddy White: 15 rec yds
Jacquizz Rodgers: 45 rush yds, 35 rec yds
Jason Snelling: 30 rush yds, 20 rec yds
Prediction: Falcons 21, Buccaneers 20
Texans @ Chiefs
- (Caron)
Passing Game Thoughts: Rookie quarterback
Case Keenum will start at quarterback this Sunday as the Texans
head to Kansas City to face the Chiefs in what will be the game
with the biggest blowout potential in Week 7. Keenum, an undrafted
free agent making his first NFL start, is an unknown at the position
behind an offensive line that has struggled mightily to protect
passers. Given the volatile nature of the Texans QB situation,
it’s hard not to bump receivers Andre Johnson and DeAndre
Hopkins down on your rankings. It’s not as if they’ve
had great quarterback play this season, but Keenum is an unknown
that is just way too difficult to trust. Johnson has produced
with some consistency in PPR formats, having caught at least five
passes in all but one game so far this season and he is on pace
for 117 receptions. Where Johnson has not produced is in the touchdown
department. Having never scored double-digit touchdowns in a season,
fantasy owners have to come to the realization that Johnson just
is not quite the elite level receiver that he is perceived to
be for fantasy. Many of us have been saying this for years but
in 2013, the touchdown problem has been worse than ever. Going
back to 2012, Johnson has scored on just two receptions in his
past 19 regular season games. Rookie DeAndre Hopkins has regressed
statistically since a nice start to the season that included a
seven catch, 117-yard performance against the Titans in Week 2.
Hopkins has just seven total catches for 97 yards over his past
three games combined and with the Texans quarterback position
in shambles, he should not be a fantasy consideration in Week
7 except for desperate owners in very deep leagues. With starting
tight end Owen Daniels injured, many expected Garrett Graham to
step up and increase his production. That didn’t happen
in Week 6 as he caught just two passes for 25 yards in the team’s
first contest without Daniels. Graham is still worth fantasy consideration
but temper your expectations. This is a very ugly passing game
against a defense that has played excellent this season. There
may be value for these players but owners would be wise to look
elsewhere for fantasy production this week.
Running Game Thoughts: Even with his teammate Matt Schaub playing
some of the worst football that we’ve seen from a starting
quarterback in many seasons, running back Arian Foster has continued
to produce at the elite level that has made him the top-scoring
fantasy running back over the course of the past three seasons.
In his past three games, Foster has compiled an impressive 341
rushing yards, 146 receiving yards and a touchdown. While the
touchdowns are down from what they have been in recent seasons,
Foster is still producing like a complete stud. The biggest question
at this point isn’t so much Foster’s return to health,
which many questioned leading into the year, but rather if the
offense around him can stay in this game long enough to be a fantasy
stud in Week 7.
The Chiefs rank 5th in the league in points allowed to opposing
running backs and they have allowed only team to rush for over
100 yards against them with their running backs. The bright side
for Foster owners is that the Chiefs really haven’t played
many top-level running backs yet this season. When they did play
against LeSean McCoy, they allowed him to rush for 158 yards and
a touchdown on just 20 carries. Foster is a must-start in all
formats just because he has proven that he can succeed as a fantasy
option even in games when his team has been blown out. Still,
his projections could be so much better if we could believe that
the talent around him will move the ball down the field enough
to get Foster more options at the goaline.
Projections:
Case Keenum: 160 pass yds, 1 TD, 2 INT
Arian Foster: 75 rush yds, 1 TD, 20 rec yds
Andre Johnson: 50 rec yds
DeAndre Hopkins: 40 rec yds
Garrett Graham: 25 rec yds, 1 TD
Passing
Game Thoughts: With the Kansas City Chiefs at 6-0, quarterback
Alex Smith has certainly done the job that the team hoped he would
do when they signed him this offseason. Unfortunately Smith’s
real-life successes in the way of wins has not translated into
making fantasy owners happy as he has now failed to throw even
a single touchdown pass in three of his past four games. His Week
6 performance against an Oakland secondary that is one of the
least talented in the league, is an indication that he just isn’t
the right option right now for fantasy owners. Smith threw for
a season-low 128 yards and although he failed to throw an interception,
that type of output won’t win any fantasy games. Smith’s
problems don’t just cause disappointment for his own fantasy
owners, however. Some fantasy owners are still waiting for the
breakout week from Dwayne Bowe, who has not caught more than four
passes or gone over 60 total yards receiving in any game this
season. While he has been in the end zone twice, the truth is
that Bowe has been a disastrous fantasy option to start the season
and that doesn’t look like it’s going to be changing
anytime soon. Bowe has always made a living by making plays down
the field and Smith simply doesn’t look past 15 yards down
the field. Fellow receiver Donnie Avery has been on and off even
more than Bowe this season, but at least he’s not a player
that many fantasy owners are relying on. Avery caught just two
passes for 6 yards, while also fumbling in Week 6, actually finishing
the game with negative fantasy points in most leagues. At the
moment, it’s hard to truly advocate any of the players in
the Kansas City passing game, especially against a Houston Texans
defense that has not yet allowed a single opposing quarterback
to throw for even 200 yards against them so far in 2013. While
the Texans have only intercepted two passes, they have actually
done a good job of containing most of their opponents and that
will likely continue in Week 7.
Running Game Thoughts: If you’re looking for the PPR breakout
star of the 2013 season, look no further than Kansas City running
back Jamaal Charles who currently sits atop the season long leaderboards
in both standard and PPR scoring formats. Charles has had no fewer
than 15 fantasy points (standard scoring) in any game this season
and his PPR numbers are even better. Charles had already caught
33 passes in six games, which puts him on pace for a staggering
88 receptions for 800 yards and five touchdowns. Those numbers
alone would make him ownable as a wide receiver if he played that
position, but when you add in the fact that Charles is also on
pace for over 1,250 rushing yards and another 13 touchdowns on
the ground, it’s easy to see why many experts are calling
Charles their top fantasy back going forward. It certainly helps
that the Chiefs have played leaps and bounds better in 2013 than
they did in 2012 and are “in” significantly more games,
but Charles just appears to be fully immersed in the new Andy
Reid offense. If Charles stays on his current pace, he will approach
the season ending fantasy totals that Adrian Peterson had a season
ago, and could exceed those numbers in PPR formats. For the time
being, there is no defense that should cause Charles owners any
worry, especially not a middle-of-the-road defense like Houston’s
that has allowed an average of 144 total yards per game to opposing
running backs over their past three contests. Charles is more
involved in the offense right now than ever before and there’s
no reason to believe that he won’t finish out the season
as one of the premier players in the entire league. Get him in
your lineup this week and every week until otherwise noted.
Projections:
Alex Smith: 155 pass yds, 1 TD, 1 INT, 25 rush yds
Jamaal Charles: 105 rush yds, 1 TD, 25 rec yds
Donnie Avery: 40 rec yds, 1 TD
Dwayne Bowe: 35 rec yds
Prediction: Chiefs 23, Titans 14
Bills at Dolphins
- (Thorne)
Passing Game Thoughts: After being
on the practice squad for five weeks, quarterback Thad Lewis made
the most of his season debut and nearly helped his team pull off
an unexpected win in front of the home crowd, overcoming a 14-point,
fourth-quarter deficit to force overtime against the Bengals.
They would lose by a field goal to a team that held Tom Brady
without a touchdown and who spoiled the comeback of Aaron Rodgers,
so by comparison Lewis had the Bills playing like some of the
best teams in the league. Despite being without wide receiver
Steve Johnson (back), Lewis threw for 216 yards on 59 percent
passing with two touchdowns, no interceptions, and a rushing touchdown
on a short scramble as well. He sprained his ankle in the latter
stages of the game but was able to finish and should be fully
available for Sunday against Miami, where he will once again try
to lead the team further than they expected to go, this time maybe
to victory.
After facing the tough test from a strong Bengals defense, going
up against Miami will seem less imposing and, ranking as the sixth
worst in yards against, below average in sacks recorded, in the
middle of the pack of interceptions forced, and approximately
average in touchdowns allowed, they are certainly not the same
caliber as Cincinnati. Statistics suggest they’re more of
a “bend but don’t break” defense than a true
shutdown defense, giving up plenty of yards but coming up with
timely stops or forcing turnovers to prevent the opposing offense
from turning those yards into points, and often capitalizing on
mistakes made by the quarterback. Lewis did well protecting the
ball last week, and if that continues, the Bills should be able
to move the ball reasonably well against Miami. But as other squads
have struggled to score consistently against the Dolphins, so
too will Buffalo, despite the higher number of opportunities they’ll
have.
Running Game Thoughts: On the year Buffalo averages nearly 150
yards on the ground per game, so even a sub-par showing like they
had last week could still yield well over 100 yards. Their 130
yards against Cincinnati were impressive considering that the
Bengals' average yards against is barely into triple digits. Working
in their favor was that both dynamic running backs C.J. Spiller
and Fred Jackson were available (though Spiller was limited),
giving the Bills what is possibly the best one-two punch in the
NFL today. Because of that, the Bills have one of the highest
run/pass ratios in the league with respect to production, meaning
that whoever the quarterback is will likely have less effect on
the game than the backfield will. The pair should once again be
healthy for Miami, and the longer the game is within reach, the
more they will get carries, keeping the pressure off of the recent
practice-squad promotion. Barring Miami jumping out to an early
lead, there is little reason for Buffalo to not hit or exceed
their rushing averages.
As they are against the pass, the Dolphins are average for the
major defensive rushing statistics. And because they aren’t
overwhelming at any one position, most offenses are able to stay
balanced against them, giving the defense a harder time predicting
play calls and forcing them to react rather than anticipate. Usually
teams will try to key on Spiller since he has the largest big-play
potential, and that tends to open the way for Johnson in the passing
game or give Jackson additional opportunities on the ground. Additionally,
Lewis possesses some of the same rushing threat that E.J. Manuel
does, and while Buffalo will want to be extremely careful with
their quarterback, there will be opportunities for him to extend
or create plays with his feet, giving the Bills' rushing attack
an extra dimension with which to exploit the Dolphins. As always,
the success of the running game will likely come down to the offensive
line moving the defensive line off the ball and opening up running
lanes. Both units have consistency issues and are rather mediocre
in most categories. But in the event of a stalemate, the benefit
goes to the running back that has the ability to make plays and
get around defenders. Advantage Buffalo.
Projections:
Thaddeus Lewis: 240 pass yds, 1 TD / 20 rush yds
C.J. Spiller: 60 rush yds / 20 rec yds
Fred Jackson: 80 rush yds
Steve Johnson: 50 rec yds
Passing
Game Thoughts: After a blazing 3-0 start, the Dolphins
dropped back-to-back games heading into the bye week, but hopefully
the time off will help to straighten out the offensive line issues
that have been plaguing them. The team is on pace to break the
franchise record for sacks conceded by the midpoint of the season
and would break the all-time NFL mark if they were to continue.
Through six weeks (five games) quarterback Ryan Tannehill has
been sacked 24 times, nearly five per game. He ranks barely within
the top half of yards gained, is right around the same mark for
interceptions thrown, and has recorded the fewest touchdown passes
of any quarterback who has started all five or more his team’s
games (a three-way tie with Griffin and Roethlisberger). Even
when he isn’t under duress—which he is frequently—he
hasn’t been particularly spectacular, and that is one of
the many reasons the Dolphins have struggled recently.
Compounding the O-line concerns is a Buffalo defense that is
near the top of the league in sacks recorded despite being in
the bottom third of yards allowed. The weakness of Miami will
be going up against the strength of their opponent, and if improvements
weren’t made during the bye week, Tannehill could be in
line for his most pressured game of the year. Adding to the task
are the likely full returns of safety Jairus Byrd and cornerback
Stephon Gilmore, who were both active but limited last week against
Cincinnati. Their absences greatly contributed to the ineffectiveness
of the Bills secondary, so if they’re able to contribute
as expected, they plug major holes on the back end and make their
defense one of the more complete units in the NFL. For one half
last week the secondary was able to nearly shut down stud wide
receiver A.J. Green; Mike Wallace isn’t the complete receiver
Green is, and without his contributions the Dolphins could have
a hard time moving the ball through the air, especially considering
the pressure they usually concede in the pocket.
Running Game Thoughts: For having one of last season’s
most promising young talents in the backfield, Miami has one of
the league’s most ineffective running games, largely because
the offensive line has been ineffective. Pass blocking is more
obvious of an issue because of sack numbers, but run blocking
is just as bad; Miami is near the bottom in rush attempts, and
when they do run, their 3.7 yards per carry average is one of
the worst. That certainly needed to be an area of focus during
the bye week, and a handful of reports suggest that one or more
linemen were given a simple ultimatum: either pick up their level
of play or lose their starting job. Between personal pride and
the desire to pull a paycheck, direct challenges from the coaches
often have a way of motivating players through the difficulty
they’re facing. For the sake of the Dolphins, those improvements—and
more—need to be on display Sunday against the Bills.
Defending against the run isn’t exactly a position of strength
for Buffalo, as they fall into the bottom five in yards against
per game, despite only giving up two rushing touchdowns. At an
average of 124 yards, the Bills are very beatable on the ground.
That being said, they did limit the Ravens to 24 yards in Week
4 and most recently held the two primary Bengals running backs
to 114 yards on 33 carries, an average of only 3.4 yards. As the
defense continues to assault the quarterback and the secondary
gets back to full health, the byproduct of those strengths will
be a better run defense. If they aren’t trying to overcompensate
for a weak secondary, additional linebackers will be left in the
box and this will supply extra bodies for stopping the run. Miami's
ability to hold the pass rush at bay will open up the offense
and allow them to give touches to Miller, thus allowing him to
make plays for the benefit of the team.
Projections:
Ryan Tannehill: 270 pass yds, 1 TD
Lamar Miller: 70 rush yds
Mike Wallace: 50 rec yds
Prediction: Dolphins 20, Bills 13
Patriots at Jets
- (Thorne)
Passing Game Thoughts: The Patriots
have suffered through six weeks without Rob Gronkowski, one of
the top tight ends in the game and one who figured to be a centerpiece
in their offense. And they may possibly face another week without
Danny Amendola (he missed two already and was limited in two more),
the slot receiver meant to replace Wes Welker, the man who helped
revolutionize the position. Gronkowski (back, forearm) and Amendola
(concussion) are both officially listed as questionable for the
Week 7 matchup against Buffalo, meaning quarterback Tom Brady
will once again be left with a handful of young or rookie receivers,
a few tight ends he doesn’t trust, and wide receiver Julian
Edelman, who is also listed as questionable for Sunday nursing
a thigh injury of his own. Brady and company are off to a particularly
underwhelming start despite being 5-1 on the season. Their 19th-rated
pass offense is a far cry from the production we’ve come
to expect, and the 8–4 TD-to-INT ratio reflects the inconsistencies
that have plagued the offense for most of the season. They’re
still spreading the ball around fairly well though, possibly more
out of need than desire, with Edelman accounting for the most
yardage, rookie Kenbrell Thompkins recording the most touchdowns
(4) including the last minute game winner last week, and each
of their top four running backs contributing in the passing game.
Their opponents are dealing with a few injuries of their own,
and unluckily for the Jets, two of those come from the cornerback
position. Dee Milner is trying to come back from a hamstring injury
that has kept him out for three weeks, and Kyle Wilson picked
up a concussion last week and has not yet been cleared to play.
Slowing down the offensive juggernauts has been somewhat of a
specialty of Rex Ryan’s, but without some of his top defensive
backs available, that task becomes more difficult. In their Week
2 Thursday night meeting, Brady was held to 185 yards on 19 of
39 passing while recording one touchdown with no interceptions
and taking one sack. The Patriots scored no points in the final
35 minutes of the game and left the door open for a last-minute
Jets drive that could have cost them the game. In that contest
Gronkowski and Amendola were unavailable and Dee Milner was benched
before halftime, so in many ways this Sunday could resemble the
early-season matchup between these two teams. Ryan typically game
plans very well for the Patriots but Brady always has the final
say, as he’s the man on the field making last-second adjustments,
as evidenced by his winning streak of six games against the Jets
and an all-time record of 18-4 against them as a starter.
Running Game Thoughts: If the passing game matchup is considered
a weakness-on-weakness battle, the rushing counterpart would certainly
be strength-on-strength. The Patriots are just outside the top
ten in rushing, averaging over 120 yards per game. The preseason
favorite to start at running back, Stevan Ridley, is coming off
his best game of the season with 110 yards from scrimmage and
two rushing touchdowns against the Saints. After early season
fumbles he saw his playing time decrease, but he has since protected
the ball and seemingly has worked his way back into the good graces
of his coach. Aside from Ridley, running backs Brandon Bolden
and LeGarrette Blount have contributed to the three-back committee
that has been in place since Shane Vereen was placed on IR. The
ability to run the ball has been more important this season as
the passing game has been inconsistent and players have been unavailable.
New York gives up the second fewest rushing yards per game (75.7),
has the lowest yards per carry against (3.0), and only eight teams
have given up as many rushing touchdowns (3) as they have. The
strength of their defense is at the line of scrimmage, and the
back seven is only a small step behind them. The Jets are probably
the best defensive squad that no one cares to consider. They’re
hard to throw against, nearly impossible to push around in the
running game, and make fewer assignment mistakes than most every
other unit in the league; they simply don’t give away many
yards and what is earned against them certainly doesn’t
come easily. On Sunday the Patriots may be without guard Dan Connolly
(concussion), and his presence would certainly be missed at the
interior of the line as they try to neutralize Coach Ryan's defensive
scheme and one of the best three-man fronts in the league.
Projections:
Tom Brady: 210 pass yds, 1 TD
Stevan Ridley: 50 rush yds
Kenbrell Thompkins: 60 rec yds, 1 TD
Passing
Game Thoughts: Not often does a quarterback look forward
to playing the Patriots, but given his recent struggles and the
generous nature of their secondary, Geno Smith has an excellent
opportunity for redemption this Sunday in his first Patriots–Jets
rematch following their close loss in Week 2. In terms of passing
production Smith is only seven yards per game behind Brady, but
his seven touchdowns to ten interceptions is what most sets them
apart at this point in the season. Smith has also taken a few
more sacks, partially because as a rookie he isn’t throwing
the ball away when he should, partially because he’ll use
his legs to try to extend plays, and partially because his O-line
isn’t quite as reliable as Brady’s has been. But in
all Smith has been solid in his rookie season and has put or kept
his team in situations to be competitive into the fourth quarter
of most games. Against the Patriots he’ll have to protect
the ball better than he did in Week 2 (3 INTs) but he won’t
need to have an outrageous stat line because of the success the
defense will likely have; another 214-yard performance could be
enough for a victory on Sunday.
Adding to their growing list of players lost for the year is
New England linebacker Jerod Mayo (torn pectoral), whose role
had increased after defensive tackle Vince Wilfork was placed
on IR. Additionally, top cornerback Aqib Talib (hip) may be unavailable
after being forced to miss the Week 5 clash with New Orleans.
Over the past three weeks the Patriots have given up nearly 270
yards through the air (229 season average), so Smith is likely
to see better opportunities than he did in Week 2, likely improving
on his 221 yard-per-game average. New England will look to replicate
the same success they saw in Week 2, forcing the rookie into obvious
passing situations and capitalizing on the mistakes he makes.
Coach Bill Belichick will give Rex Ryan a run for his money when
it comes to scheming against an offense, and the game may come
down to Smith making a play or adjusting a call to get his team
into a more favorable situation—a big responsibility for
a rookie, but at least the defense across from him will not be
at full strength.
Running Game Thoughts: All the focus of this game has been on
the quarterbacks, the future Hall of Famer against the promising
rookie in the regional rivalry both teams look forward to twice
each year. The difference maker in the game, however, may come
from the rushing attack as the offensive line battles the defensive
line for position, and those successes or failures will impact
the passing game later one. But it all starts with the O-line
and their ability to create holes in the running game. The Jets
have a fairly typical running game, approximately average in yards
per game and attempt. They are well below average in rushing touchdowns,
but they’re also on the lower end of total scoring and toward
the bottom of red zone visits. Running back Bilal Powell has been
the clear leader and despite a minor injury last week, he’s
expected to be on the field for Week 7 once again leading the
way. Smith contributes to the running game on occasion, but the
team has done well to protect him from unnecessary contact and
his rushes are typically limited to scrambles and improvisation.
Those two are the only Jets to record a rushing touchdown this
season.
The average Jets rushing attack will face off against the below-average
Patriots run defense, and the absence of Mayo makes them even
less dominant in this area. For several years the best rush defense
New England had was their high-powered offense, and as teams fell
behind they were forced to abandon the run and pass almost exclusively.
Now that the offense stalls out more frequently and points are
less plentiful, teams are finding more success on the ground as
they’re given more opportunities to exploit the injured
Patriots front seven. In Week 2 the Jets tallied 129 rushing yards
(100 total from Powell and Ivory) and one of their only two touchdowns
as they used the ground game to protect Smith and slowly work
their way back from a ten-point halftime deficit. The longer the
game stays close this Sunday, the more New York should implement
the running game and the more success they should see in it as
the game goes on.
Projections:
Geno Smith: 250 pass yds, 1 TD
Bilal Powell: 70 rush yds
Stephen Hill: 60 rec yds
Prediction: Patriots 20, Jets 16
Cowboys at Eagles
- (Thorne)
Passing Game Thoughts: If you like
video game scores and hate defense, this is your game of the week.
Only one quarterback has more touchdowns and more interceptions
than Tony Romo, who is off to the best season of his career. Despite
a 3-3 records, the game Sunday will be for first place in the
NFC East. Dallas has yet to win one the road and Philadelphia
has yet to win at home, so one of those is guaranteed to change.
His 265 passing yards per game puts Romo just outside the top
ten and the 14 sacks he’s taken are right around average
for the league. Logically, if the offensive line could buy him
a little more time, the yardage would increase and both statistics
would improve, though for being somewhat thrown together, the
O-line has done better than predicted. After throwing only one
interception through four games, Romo has thrown one in back-to-back
weeks, and considering the opposing offense, he’ll need
to keep that in check so he doesn’t give the Eagles easy
scoring opportunities. Two players, wide receiver Dez Bryant and
tight end Jason Witten, have accounted for over half of the team’s
receiving yards and nine of their 14 receiving touchdowns.
Defensive fortitude isn’t an attribute that can be attributed
to the 2013 Eagles, especially in the passing game. They average
315 yards against per game, second worst to only Denver, and have
surrendered 13 touchdowns (the league worst is 14) while recording
13 sacks, which ranks in the bottom quarter of the league. Much
like Dallas, the shortcomings of the team originate on the defensive
side of the ball and not from the offense, a trait which is common
to the entire division this season. Realistic expectations for
Sunday would involve the Cowboys coming up with a timely stop
or two to keep the game close enough to give the offense a chance
to secure the victory. The Eagles will need to be opportunistic
and take advantage of any mistakes that Dallas makes, of which
the Cowboys will surely make an effort to curtail.
Running Game Thoughts: Owner Jerry Jones says star running back
DeMarco Murray will miss this week; Murray says he’s preparing
to play despite his sprained knee. Something tells me Jones is
right, even if he has no idea what’s going on, like a self-fulfilling
prophecy regarding his multi-billion dollar franchise. Murray
is officially doubtful for the time being. Behind him the leading
rusher for Dallas is Lance Dunbar, but he’s been ruled out
for Sunday, meaning backfield duties will likely be split between
Philip Tanner and Joseph Randle (who combined for 20 yards on
a 16 carries and 24 yards on 3 receptions) plus any personnel
that may be promoted from the practice squad. From a fantasy standpoint,
Randle is worth a look, but this figures to be a pass-heavy effort
from the Cowboys.
Even with Murray available, Dallas averages fewer than 85 yards
per game, and since the Eagles give up just over 105 yards, there
wasn’t an abundance of production expected anyway. The best
way to beat Philadelphia is through the air and by using rushes
as a change of pace or in hopes of catching the defense out of
position; this is largely why Jones is in no particular hurry
to get Murray back for this contest. Romo can direct his tailback
at the line of scrimmage and use audibles to take advantage of
what the defense shows, so preserving the health of the star running
back is more valuable than the benefits he would bring to the
field. In a game where Dallas was already planning to air the
ball out early and often, Murray's knee sprain only solidifies
that plan. Unless something drastically changes, Philadelphia
should surrender well beyond their season average in rushing yards
against.
Projections:
Tony Romo: 350 pass yds, 3 TDs
Joseph Randle: 50 rush yds, 20 rec yds
Dez Bryant: 120 rec yds, 1 TD
Jason Witten: 80 rec yds, 1 TD
Passing
Game Thoughts: Regardless of who the starter was, the most
productive quarterback for Philadelphia has been the one who has
finished each game, Nick Foles. In essentially six quarters he’s
led the team to 51 points and two victories, outscoring the opponent
by 17 points from the time he entered the game in Week 5. On the
season (one full game, just over one half in a second game, and
limited time in two others) he has completed over 67 percent of
his passes for 542 yards, six touchdowns, and no interceptions.
If those numbers were to hold true for an entire 16-game season,
he’d put up 48 touchdowns and more than 4,300 yards. His
complete and best game came in Week 6 against Tampa Bay, who is
supposed to have one of the toughest secondaries in the league.
From Foles' two-game sampling he has outpaced the total production
of Michael Vick without the turnovers. There’s no denying
Vick is a better runner and a more dynamic player, but from a
statistical point of view the Eagles may actually be better off
with Foles at quarterback.
Dallas and Philadelphia have effectively the same passing defense—same
number of interceptions, within one touchdown and four sacks of
each other, and right behind one another in yards allowed. The
two most dynamic NFC East offenses also have two of the worst
defenses in the league. News came out this week that linebacker
DeMarcus Ware (quad) will likely be unable to participate, and
the Dallas pass rush will suffer accordingly. Ware has recorded
four of their 14 total sacks this season, and it will be nearly
impossible to make up for his presence on the field along with
his contributions to the box score. With the rushing threat of
Vick all but eliminated, the Eagles will more closely resemble
a traditional NFL offense but with noticeable modifications made
for the Chip Kelly offense, which could spell trouble for a Dallas
defense that already gives up over 300 yards per game through
the air.
Running Game Thoughts: This is what the Eagles do better than
everyone else, running the ball, getting athletes into space and
letting them make big plays, but then smashing it between the
tackles and watching their running back weave his way through
the oncoming defenders as he makes his way downfield. Through
six games they've broken the 100-yard mark each time and have
twice gone over 260. Leading the way is LeSean McCoy, but any
variety of running backs or wide receivers have contributed to
the ground attack at one point or another. In space McCoy’s
almost unstoppable and at the line of scrimmage he’s hard
to take down with the first hit because of how shifty he is. The
lateral movement he’s able to achieve earned him every bit
of his “Shady” nickname in that the only thing defenders
are able to hit is his shadow. Even without the running threat
of Vick in Week 6, McCoy gained 116 yards on 25 carries (4.6 average),
and much of the same should be expected against Dallas on Sunday.
Without the pass rush of Ware, the Cowboys will have to be more
reactionary than usual and will have a difficult time getting
ahead of Philadelphia in down and distance. Linebackers will either
have to help in coverage or will be sent on a blitz, neither of
which is conducive to bottling up McCoy and the Eagles running
game. In a high-scoring game it will be hard for an offense to
stick to the running game, but if any team can, it will mostly
likely be one led by Coach Kelly. Dallas will almost certainly
be forced to face off against the strength of the Eagles for the
majority of the contest, and their defensive coordinator, Monte
Kiffin, will once again be tasked with slowing down his old nemesis
in Kelly, dating back to when they were at Southern California
and Oregon, respectively. That experience should work to Kiffin's
advantage in preparation for the showdown on Sunday, but only
so much can be done to minimize what Philadelphia does best.
Projections:
Nick Foles: 330 pass yds, 2 TDs
LeSean McCoy: 100 rush yds, 1 TD / 50 rec yds
DeSean Jackson: 110 rec yds, 1 TD
Prediction: Cowboys 34, Eagles 31
Bears at Redskins
- (Thorne)
Passing Game Thoughts: After this
Sunday the Bears will have 15 days to prepare for Green Bay, but
until then their focus has been solely on the Redskins and how
quarterback Jay Cutler can continue his recent tear. Two of his
three best games of the season came in Weeks 5 and 6, and over
that time he’s thrown for 620 yards and four touchdowns
without an interception, roughly 50 yards per game better than
they’ve averaged this season and an improvement on Cutler’s
12–6 TD-to-INT ratio. The major question always is in his
consistency, and as good as his ceiling is, he often finds ways
into valleys of performance, like against Detroit where he had
more interceptions (3) than touchdowns (2) and the Bears came
up one score short. The emergence of second-year wide receiver
Alshon Jeffery has given the Chicago passing attack an extra dimension
that defenses are having a hard time figuring out; since his 107-yard
and one touchdown Week 4, either Jeffery or star wideout Brandon
Marshall have combined for two touchdowns in each of the following
two games. When a door closes a window opens, or in this case,
when one receiver is covered the other picks up the slack.
If they’re not careful, Washington my end up being beaten
by both receivers this Sunday, as their pass defense does leave
something to be desired. They give up over 270 yards and two touchdowns
per game through the air and have recorded only three interceptions
all season, more than only five other teams. They’ve been
good at getting to the quarterback, recording 16 sacks in only
five games, but seven of those came against the Raiders and another
seven came in the first two weeks of the year, leaving only two
total sacks against teams who don’t have a losing record.
By most accounts Chicago may have the best (or at least one of
the best) offensive lines that the Redskins have faced, and if
they’re not able to create pressure, Cutler will have plenty
of time to pick apart the secondary.
Running Game Thoughts: Lost in the ups and downs of Cutler and
the matchup problems created by the Chicago receivers is that
they also have one of the most versatile running backs in the
NFL today. The per game rushing average isn’t spectacular
(108.7 yards), but 4.5 yards per attempt is usually a great thing
for an offense. The star of the backfield is Matt Forte, who on
top of averaging 4.4 yards per carry also has great hands and
is excellent in both the pass protection and pass receiving aspects
of the game, giving defenses even more to think about and protect
against on every play. Forte himself is responsible for over 114
yards per game from scrimmage and has scored three of the four
Chicago rushing touchdowns. Under Marc Trestman the offense is
more pass oriented, but Forte still gets his touches and finds
ways to contribute whenever the ball is in his hands.
Washington is particularly susceptible against the run, ranking
in the bottom six in yards against and being tied for fourth worst
in rushing touchdowns against with six (one per game following
two touchdowns in the opening game). Predicting Forte to have
a noticeable impact on the game, especially via the run, isn’t
exactly a groundbreaking revelation, both because of what he does
and what the Redskins are rather incapable of doing. Of all the
story lines heading into this game—Cutler being reunited
with coach Mike Shanahan (both from Denver), Robert Griffin III
and the ACL recovery saga, the arrival of Jeffery—perhaps
the most central to the game plan will be the increased involvement
of Forte in the offense. Coach Lovie Smith was fired partially
due to the underutilization of Forte, and in a game where the
rush defense is expected to be fickle, how heavily Trestman leans
on his running back will be particularly interesting to the Chicago
ownership and to his fantasy football owners alike.
Projections:
Jay Cutler: 280 pass yds, 2 TDs
Matt Forte: 80 rush yds, 2 TDs / 40 rec yds
Brandon Marshall: 90 rec yds, 1 TD
Alshon Jeffery: 60 rec yds
Passing
Game Thoughts: Despite the loss, their Week 6 showing against
Dallas was a monumental step in the right direction for Robert
Griffin III and the Redskins. Griffin threw for 246 yards and
rushed for another 77 but was unable to find the end zone and
was responsible for two turnovers. Washington outgained and out-possessed
Dallas but the turnovers are what would ultimately lead to the
loss. While statistically the passing numbers were below his season
averages, Griffin's willingness to run should be cause for excitement
in the nation’s capital, suggesting that he’s on his
way back to the form that he had throughout his stellar rookie
campaign. For the season he’s thrown just one more touchdown
(6) than interception (5) and the offensive line has done a good
job protecting him, allowing only ten sacks, good enough for top
five in the league. If the line can continue to keep Griffin upright
and the quarterback maintains his duel-threat presence, Washington
may be able to avoid their first 0-3 home start in 15 years.
If it weren’t for turnovers, the Chicago defense would
be remarkably mediocre, perhaps worse. But thanks to nine interceptions
(one behind the league leaders), they’ve been able to limit
the damage from all the yards they surrender. Many of the teams
that surrender around 270 yards as they do, such as the Giants,
Falcons, Redskins, and Bills, have losing records. In addition
to below-average yardage numbers, the Bears have recorded the
third fewest sacks in the league, adding to the importance of
the turnovers they create. In Week 7 Washington should be able
to move the ball through the air rather effectively, as long as
Griffin is able to limit the turnovers that have affected him
recently and been partially responsible for the Redskins losing
record.
Running Game Thoughts: After a slow start to the season, running
back Alfred Morris has averaged over 70 yards per game and has
scored a touchdown in alternating contests. The success of Washington
last season was largely based on the running game—the duel
threat presented by Griffin in addition to consistent production
from Morris. This season the running back consistency has been
there but until recently the quarterback has been unable to hold
up his end of the model. In Week 6, Griffin's 77 yards on the
ground were more than all he’d recorded in his previous
four games. The offensive line has done well opening holes for
the traditional rushing attack, and if the read-option game can
come along as it did last week, the Redskins should jump straight
back into 2012 form and resume their winning ways.
The biggest obstacle for the Bears to overcome is the loss of
their top two defensive tackles to season-ending knee injuries.
Without Henry Melton and Nate Collins in Week 6, the Giants gained
123 yards on the ground and had their first 100-yard rusher of
the season as Brandon Jacobs earned his first start since 2011.
The Redskins' offensive line is more consistent than the Giants'
and their running back is on the uphill climb to his peak, as
opposed to Jacobs' downslide afterward. Morris, Griffin, and the
other ball carriers will see plenty of opportunities against a
banged-up Bears defensive line and should be able to build upon
the success they developed in Week 6.
Projections:
Robert Griffin III: 270 pass yds, 1 TD, 1 INT / 50 rush yds
Alfred Morris: 70 rush yds, 1 TD
Pierre Garcon: 80 rec yds
Prediction: Bears 28, Redskins 14
Vikings at Giants
- (Thorne)
Passing Game Thoughts: There are
diehard fans in Minnesota and New York that won’t be watching
this game, so thank goodness for fantasy football and the potential
make-or-break performances on the line as the teams with the two
worst records in the NFL square off in prime time. After signing
with Minnesota during their bye in Week 4, quarterback Josh Freeman
sat out last week but is now the starter, less than a month after
being benched and released from Tampa Bay, who is still winless.
He actually improved his surroundings by joining a one-win team.
Freeman has completed a league- low 45.7 percent of his passes
for 571 yards and two touchdowns, with four total turnovers in
only three games; that averages to 190 yards and an interception
each game plus two scores and one fumble somewhere along the way.
Minnesota has determined he’s their best option at quarterback.
Let that sink in for a moment. Through five games, two different
Vikings quarterbacks have averaged 222 passing yards, one touchdown,
and nearly two turnovers per game while completing well over 63
percent of their attempts. Splitting the difference between the
two suggests that a high-end goal for Freeman would be breaking
200 yards, scoring, and only giving the ball away once. Greg Jennings,
Jerome Simpson, and the other receivers will be lucky to individually
break the half-century mark in Freeman’s Minnesota debut.
Compared to the other teams in their division New York has far
and away the best passing defense in the NFC East, and yet they
barely escape the bottom third of the league rankings with 268
yards against per game. The once imposing Giants defensive line
has recorded a league-low five sacks, two behind the next worst
team. For illustrative purposes, there are seven individual players
with that many sacks and another five with just as many as New
York has recorded as a team. Minnesota has given up 14 sacks,
slightly better than average for the league, so there is a high
likelihood that Freeman should be kept relatively clean in his
first game as a Viking. If New York’s performance against
Chicago is any indication, the Minnesota receivers should find
plenty of space in the Giants secondary, so if the line can protect
for the new quarterback, his big arm may get a workout as his
targets break free downfield.
Running Game Thoughts: Rare moments transcend the line between
popular sports culture and genuine real life events; tragically
one of those such moments befell Adrian Peterson this past week
as he learned about the death of his young son. Although his son's
birth was unknown to Peterson for some time, he still understandably
took the news hard and was excused from team activities to be
in attendance as the toddler was laid to rest. As his personal
life is being pulled apart and investigated by the tabloids and
gossip media outlets, the star running back is shouldered with
shutting out the world that exists beyond the football field and
focusing on the task at hand. Through five games he has recorded
102 carries for 483 yards and five touchdowns, averaging roughly
20 carries, one touchdown, and just short of 100 yards running
behind an offensive line that has seen its share of struggles.
When Christian Ponder was under center, the quarterback could
contribute to the running game through scrambles and would use
his legs to effectively extend drives; neither the backup Matt
Cassel nor the newly-acquired Freeman have a reputation for contributing
to the rushing attack.
Where the Giants are the relative cream of the crop in NFC East
passing defenses, they’re a rounding error away from being
the bottom of the barrel against the run within the division and
not too far from the worst in the league. Teams have averaged
over 123 rushing yards against them at almost four yards per carry,
only the latter of which comes close to being near the league
average. The Giants were able to hold the top rushing team (Philadelphia)
to 38 yards below their season average and had somewhat similar
success against Kansas City. When the game plan is to stop the
run they’re somewhat effective, but against a balanced attack
they can be overwhelmed and overextended. Minnesota clearly favors
the run but brought in Freeman to give an added dimension to the
passing attack, so the potential is there for the Vikings to demand
too much of the Giants defense.
In recent NFL history, personal tragedy has led to near-career
best games for those most directly affected, as in the case of
Brett Favre following the passing of his father and Torrey Smith
with the accident that claimed his brother. While it is unreasonable
to expect Peterson to verge on his already impressive career highs,
it would not be surprising to see him go for well below or well
beyond his season averages. If Peterson is able to focus solely
on factors within his control and block out the entirety of everything
else, Monday night may see him join the likes of those upon whom
football glory has shined after the world has touched them so
tragically.
Projections:
Josh Freeman: 180 pass yds, 1 INT
Adrian Peterson: 120 rush yds, 1 TD
Greg Jennings: 40 rec yds
Passing
Game Thoughts: After a 0-6 start no one is beyond questioning,
and that includes the face of the franchise and two-time Super
Bowl–winning quarterback Eli Manning. Through only five
games he’s matched his interception total from all of last
season at 16, averaging over three per game. In addition to those
picks, the Giants have given up 16 sacks, worse than average for
the league but certainly not helping with the turnovers, considering
the pressure that Manning is seeing on a near-constant basis.
When he’s not bring sacked or throwing interceptions, Manning
leads a passing attack that ranks in the top ten in yards per
game and just outside of that in touchdowns scored. Part of the
problem has to reside with the offensive line and the injuries
they suffered in the preseason. The strength of the offense, almost
by default, has to be the receiving corps of Victor Cruz, Hakeem
Nicks, and Ruben Randle.
For the Giants to earn their first win, they’ll need to
face a defense that is weak against the pass so that Manning and
company can attempt to score more points than the defense is likely
to give up. Thankfully the Vikings present such an opportunity,
but it’s still up to the offense to do their part. Minnesota
gives up 308 yards and nearly three touchdowns per game through
the air while having recorded only seven interceptions and ten
sacks on the season. The defensive line is the strength of the
unit but behind them the linebackers are underperforming and the
secondary continues to show its inexperience. When the linebackers
are forced to help in coverage, the D-line has a hard time creating
pressure, but when the linebackers blitz, the defensive backs
are left to fend for themselves on the back end. Under the leadership
of Manning the offense should be able to exploit the Minnesota
defense and continue their struggles against the pass.
Running Game Thoughts: In his first game as a starter since the
2011 season, Brandon Jacobs rushed for two touchdowns and over
100 yards, significantly surpassing the Giants' average of 68
yards per game. His two touchdowns account for half of the scoring
output of the New York rushing attack and his lack of a fumble
is also an improvement on their one-per-game prior to Week 6.
Jacobs' reemergence came against a Bears team that had recently
lost both of their starting defensive tackles and were particularly
weak in the center of their defense. While the Giants O-line still
wasn’t spectacular, they did well enough to allow the ball
carrier to make plays and pick up yardage at a reasonable pace.
Injuries have devastated the New York backfield and the hope is
that Jacobs can be a multi-week stopgap rather than a one-week
wonder, but that verdict will not be rendered until Week 7 has
come and gone.
As a team, the Vikings are approximately average against the
run, yielding 110 yards per game. They’ve surrendered six
rushing touchdowns, comfortably inside the bottom ten in that
category, suggesting that their red zone defense isn’t particularly
able to come up with stops in short-yardage situations. Fortunately
for the Giants, their troubles have been mostly within the red
zone, so if they’re able to get within scoring distance,
the defense across from them will be more susceptible to being
beaten than most of the teams they’ve faced thus far. Even
with a mild hamstring injury, Jacobs gives New York the best chance
at having a successful running game, and if he continues to be
productive and hold on to the ball, he stands to hold on to the
starting role even after David Wilson (neck) and Andre Brown (leg)
return.
Projections:
Eli Manning: 270 pass yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
Brandon Jacobs: 80 rush yds, 1 TD
Victor Cruz: 100 rec yds, 1 TD
Prediction: Vikings 17, Giants 14
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