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Fantasy Football Strategy, Advice, and Commentary |
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 By: Dave Stringer — October 11, 2011 @ 7:49 pm
Quarterbacks
Moving Up
Matt Cassel, Chiefs
The good news is that Cassel is heating up as we’re going through bye weeks. The bad news is that he’s on a bye in Week 6. Rats. Over the last two weeks, Cassel has looked like the player we expected entering the season, solid but far from spectacular. He had his best fantasy game of the year against the Colts, throwing for 257 yards and four touchdowns, one week after throwing for 260 yards and a score against the Vikings. Here’s his schedule beginning in Week 7: Raiders (28th ranked pass defense), Chargers (2nd – okay, not so good), Dolphins (27th), Broncos (21st), Patriots (31st), Steelers (1st), Bears (26th), Jets (5th), Packers (29th) and Raiders (28th). That’s right through to Fantasy Football Championship Games in Week 16 and it looks pretty darn nice.
Curtis Painter, Colts
Turns out Painter’s not quite as clueless as he led us to believe during significant playing time in a pair of games to close out the 2009 season and in most of his preseason contests. With the Colts in desperation mode, Painter has started each of Indianapolis’ last two games and looked solid, completing 28 of 59 passes for 558 yards and 4 touchdowns with no interceptions. That’s pretty impressive considering the state of the Colts offensive line (they were horrendous during Painter’s first start against the Bucs).
 Tebow is likely to give his fantasy owners a wild ride. Tim Tebow, Broncos
It’s Tebow time. Help yourself to what surely will be the one of the most up and down fantasy quarterbacks for the balance of the 2011 season. The Broncos were surely looking to find a reason to insert Tebow into the starting line up and incumbent starter Kyle Orton provided it this week with a dud of a performance against the Charges. The good news is that Tebow is his own goal line back and has seven rushing touchdowns (including one this week) in just 12 career games. The bad news is that it often looks like he’s throwing to opposing cornerbacks as much as his own wide receivers. Dig in for a wild ride, folks.
Moving Down
Mark Sanchez, Jets
Frustration. If you own Sanchez in a dynasty league, that’s what you’re feeling. He’s blown hot and cold for much of his career but appeared ready to emerge as an upper tier fantasy backup after three decent outings to start the season where he averaged 25.9 fantasy points per game. Unfortunately, his combined point total over his last two games (Ravens and Patriots) didn’t hit 25.9 – try 22.6 including a true Week 4 dud against the Ravens with just 6.3. That one you could excuse him for but just 16.3 fantasy points on 166 yards and a pair of touchdowns against a very poor Patriots secondary is cause for concern.
Running Backs
Moving Up
Jackie Battle, Chiefs
While it’s difficult to say with certainty that Battle is a big upgrade over Thomas Jones, he did get a healthy dose of playing time this week and he certainly made the most it. In the first extensive playing time of his career, Battle had 19 carries for 119 yards and two receptions for 21 yards. His 21 touches topped the Chiefs running backs with Thomas Jones getting 12 and Dexter McCluster just five. That doesn’t mean Battle has earned the starting position for the balance of the season but it does mean he’s earned it for the time being. The Chiefs have a Week 6 bye followed by a stretch of games where they face run defenses ranked 12th or lower until they face the Packers 3rd ranked run defense in Week 15. Lightning in a bottle perhaps? You never know.
Delone Carter and Donald Brown, Colts
Starter Joseph Addai injured his hamstring this week against the Chiefs and initial reports indicate he will miss 1-3 weeks. That opens the door Carter and Brown and if this week is any indication, the Colts will ride the hot hand. Brown had been left for dead but looked like the better back of the two this week with 38 yards on eight carries. Can’t say I’d want to have to rely on either one and it’s possible this situation will remain muddled until Addai returns. Only for the desperate.
Willis McGahee, Broncos
Okay, enough already. The Broncos have clearly given up on 2009 1st round pick Knowshon Moreno. When you’ve handed the lead role to the plodding McGahee, what other conclusion can be reached? On the plus side, McGahee has topped 100 yards in three of the past four weeks. Sure, the Broncos are facing soft defenses and they play from behind but McGahee is making the most of the opportunities and it’s not like the Broncos are about ready to turn their season around, Tim Tebow or no Tim Tebow.
Jonathan Dwyer, Steelers
With Rashard Mendenhall out with a hamstring injury and replacement starter Isaac Redman suffering from cramps, Dwyer stepped into the fray and showed why Pittsburgh used a 2010 6th round pick to acquire him. Dwyer had easily his best game as a pro, gaining 107 yards on 11 carries and catching a pass for six yards. The Jaguars are on tap in Week 6 and if Mendenhall can’t go, Dwyer has likely earned at least 1/3rd of the carries in a split role with Redman.
Moving Down
LaDainian Tomlinson, Jets
After having two solid performances during the first three games of the season, LT has become a forgotten man in New York with just seven touches over the last two games. Looks like the Jets are making a concerted effort to get Shonn Greene going and he posted his best game of the season this week against the Patriots. That doesn’t bode well for LT owners.
Knowshon Moreno, Broncos
See above. Relegated to 3rd down duty and nothing more. This week, that meant not one single carry. Ignore the fantasy point total which was padded with a receiving touchdown.
Dexter McCluster, Chiefs
McCluster’s touches have gone from 15 to 10 to 5 … hard to be productive without the ball. So much for McCluster being the back to attempt to replace Jamaal Charles’ production.
Wide Receivers
Moving Up
Darrius Heyward-Bey, Raiders
Has the light finally gone on for the much maligned Raiders 2009 1st round pick? Heyward-Bey has been a colossal bust for the first two years of his career but he has shown a glimpse of promise over the past two weeks. He looked solid against the Patriots in Week 4, catching four of seven targets for 115 yards and again this week against the Texans, catching seven passes for 99 yards and a touchdown. Rookie Denarius Moore and 2nd year player Jacoby Ford were getting all the fantasy love as the Raiders wide receivers to own but Ford has been a bust and Heyward-Bey has been getting the looks in the games that both he and Moore have played (29 to 18). You know the adage – it’s all about opportunity.
Victor Cruz, Giants
Do I truly believe? Not really. But there’s no denying two things: 1. Cruz is on a hot streak and 2. quarterback Eli Manning is looking his way. Cruz’s targets have went from 5 to 9 to 11 over the past three weeks, a period in which he has caught 17 passes for 369 yards and three touchdowns. The guy seems to have a knack for making big plays. Mario Manningham is too good not to start eating into at least some of that production but Cruz is definitely startable until he proves otherwise.
Pierre Garcon, Colts
If you’ve ever read my column, you know I’m not a Pierre Garcon fan. But I am warming up to him now that he’s become new starting quarterback Curtis Painter’s favorite target in the passing game. Painter has looked his way 16 times during his past two starts compared to 15 for Reggie Wayne, with Garcon catching seven of those targets for 271 yards and four touchdowns. Hey, some of it has been on broken coverages and some of it the result of bad tackling but points are points.
Steve Breaston, Chiefs
The Chiefs offense has come around over the past two weeks and Breaston is making the most of his limited targets – just in time to help his owners through their bye weeks. He’s also shaping up as a decent flex play in leagues that employ that position, with eight receptions on ten targets for 141 yards and a pair of scores over the last two weeks. Turns out a rising tide lifts all boats in Kansas City and the Chiefs increased offensive production is extending to Breaston’s performance.
James Jones, Packers
I’ll be honest – it doesn’t take as much to impress me once the bye weeks hit. Hello, James Jones. Three week scrub becomes solid two week starter becomes who knows what. With so many solid receiving options in Green Bay, Jones’ nice two-week stretch of eight receptions for 188 yards and a pair of scores might mean nothing in the Packers Week 6 game against the Rams. Of course, it’s the Rams who are down to Al Harris, Justin King, Rod Hood, Josh Gordy and Brian Jackson at cornerback. That ain’t pretty, folks. Start all your Packers.
Michael Crabtree, 49ers
He was Moving Up last week when he probably didn’t deserve and after a two reception, 36-yard performance, he probably doesn’t deserve it this week. But who exactly is going to catch the ball for the 49ers? Braylon Edwards remains out and Josh Morgan suffered a broken leg during this week’s blowout win over the Buccaneers. That leaves Crabtree and Ted Ginn Jr. as the team’s starter and T.J. Houshmandzadeh was brought in for a workout. Hey, the 49ers did score 41 points this week.
Moving Down
Jacoby Jones, Texans
With Andre Johnson out of the line up, Jones got a Moving Up last week with a qualifier that it was “as tepid a Moving Up as you’ll ever find.” If you watched any of this week’s Texans-Raiders contest, what you saw was a quarterback not on the same page with his wide receiver. If Jones wasn’t running an out pattern at the wrong depth, then it was a slant at the wrong depth. I’m not sure I’ve ever seen less chemistry between a quarterback and a wide receiver. By game’s end, Jones had caught one of eleven targets. The sad parts are that these two have been playing together since Jones came into the league in 2007 and it’s not like Jones doesn’t have talent. He just can’t get do anything with it.
Mike Williams, Bucs
Well, I’ve waited long enough and it’s time for Williams to be Moving Down. When you are the lead receiver on a team that got crushed 48-3 and all you contribute is four receptions for 28 yards despite a healthy dose of garbage time opportunity and you’ve been a disappointment for four straight games, you’re Moving Down. It’s that simple. The big plays that were there in 2010 have dried up for Williams who is averaging just 9.6 yards per reception and has just one touchdown thus far in 2011. He’s benchable, folks, and I don’t care if the bye weeks are here.
Jacoby Ford, Raiders
Hello, little used little slot receiver. Preseason reports of Ford’s ascension to top dog status amongst the Raiders wide receivers were great exaggerated (mea culpa). I no longer believe and neither should you.
Tight Ends
Moving Up
Owen Daniels, Texans
Meet the fantasy beneficiary of Andre Johnson’s absence. Daniels finally looks like he’s back to being the player he was before suffering a serious knee injury at the midway point of the 2009 season. With Johnson out, Daniels had 11 targets this week, catching seven for 89 yards. Since a poor Week 1 outing, Daniels has caught 20 passes for 259 yards and three touchdowns and appears ready to reclaim his role as a top five fantasy tight end.
Jake Ballard, Giants
The bye weeks are here and there have been some disappointing tight ends and a couple that are banged up. Hello, Jake Ballard. If you’re desperate, Ballard has scored in each of his last two games (six receptions for 105 yards on seven targets) and has a solid looking schedule on the horizon with Bills 25th ranked defense up followed by a Week 7 bye, the Dolphins (27th), Patriots (31st) and 49ers (22nd). The lack of targets doesn’t give you the warm fuzzies but the touchdowns just might keep coming.
Moving Down
Dustin Keller, Jets
Last year, it lasted four weeks. This year, it last three. Two in 2012? After a solid first three weeks to open the season (16 receptions for 249 yards and a pair of touchdowns), eerily reminiscent of his first four weeks in 2010 (19 receptions for 254 yards and five touchdowns), Keller has gone stone cold with just three receptions for 19 yards over his past two games. Looks like Keller is well on his way to finishing 2011 like he finished 2010, when he caught 36 passes for 433 yards and no touchdowns over his final 12 games.
Dallas Clark, Colts
It seems like it happens to one stud tight end every year and this year, it is Clark’s turn. The O-line turns turnstile and the tight end has to block. Welcome to Clark’s world. He’s averaging just 5.6 targets per game after averaging 8.4 during the 2009 and 2010 seasons. And with the Colts offense struggling for much of 2011, it’s not like Clark has made up for the lack of looks by finding the end zone more often (one touchdown this season). He’s officially benchable.
By: Aaron Williams — @ 3:11 pm
Welcome to Week 5 of Tuesday Morning Buzz! I enjoyed the slate of games this week, even though Eric Decker, Steve Johnson, and Darren McFadden brought me a loss in my most important league. It was a week where many teams played as they were expected to, and many others showed their true colors (including Silver!)
 Vick is a nightmare for fantasy opponents. Eagles–Bills
Michael Vick cannot help but score fantasy points. His underperformances are better than most QBs‘ good weeks. In contrast, Vick’s rushing numbers alone nearly eclipsed Ryan Fitzpatrick’s entire day. Or, if you like, consider it this way: Vick’s rushing yards counterbalanced four interceptions. He can throw multiple picks and still get his complete passing stats. If you aren’t completely tired of the analogy, at least this Dream Team member continues to present nightmares for fantasy opponents.
For the Bills, there isn’t much to say. They beat an Eagles team that has lost nearly every matchup they have played this year. Buffalo didn’t come from behind, which is promising, but they did lose their deep threat in Donald Jones. Seems to me they traded a receiver with good deep-threat ability this offseason… Maybe he was too high-profile for this team.
Chiefs–Colts
How about them KC Chiefs? They showed a little gusto and got into a bad-team shootout with the Colts in Indy. Somehow, despite both teams missing by far their best offensive stars, this matchup was far more entertaining than last year’s snoozefest. If you don’t recall—and who could blame you—these two teams kicked field goals for three quarters last year until, finally, the illustrious Mike Hart scored the game-winning touchdown in the fourth quarter. This year you saw Matt Cassel and Curtis Painter looking like Joe Montana and Johnny U. I’m kidding, but thanks to the help of Dwayne Bowe and Pierre Garcon, there was at least one game where both offenses had some steam. Let’s see if either team can carry that momentum into next week and create a week-in, week-out fantasy starter somewhere.
P.S. Start Pierre Garcon until he proves you wrong.
Cardinals–Vikings
If someone had asked me to predict this game in the offseason, this is how I would’ve predicted it. Peterson had a great game, both QBs were middling, the Vikings defense kept the Cardinals down well enough, and Percy Harvin did nothing. My perceptions of these two teams have been off this year, but this week they were dead on. Of the combined 106 men on these two rosters, there is only one player that you should be starting next week: Adrian Peterson. If the Cardinals weren’t on bye, you’d have to start Fitzgerald; but since he’s out, you can start that bench player you’ve been tempted by all year.
Seahawks–Giants
I warn you: do not be swayed by this Seahawks team. Their win this week was a symptom of the New York Giants being unable to handle the pressure, not of fantastic play by the Seahawks. Lackadaisical defense can often make subpar offenses look shiny for one week. For some reason, the Giants get worse in proportion to how many points they’re favored by. Right now, in a very contrary fashion, I think the Giants are both sell-high and buy-low targets. If you can get good value for any of your Giants, I suggest selling them like Biggie T-shirts. However, if you see an owner panicking and offering players like Ahmad Bradshaw at a steal, then I say buy them up like Bank of America stock.
Titans–Steelers
This is another game that played out how I would have expected in the offseason. Ben Roethlisberger lit up a defense that I thought was trending downward, and the Titans, including Chris Johnson, looked generally subpar. Johnson, like a great many other RBs this year, is someone I would never have drafted because he would’ve had to fall rounds below his ADP to be worth the risk to me. Maybe CJ2K returns to form after the bye, but I really don’t see it. At this point, I would feel better starting Darren Sproles or even Jahvid Best over Johnson. For the Steelers, watch for them to continue to play well at home and continue to look unimpressive and asleep on the road.
Saints–Panthers
Jed Collins has two TDs in two games. Look for him to have three TDs max by year’s end. The Saints love putting up points with guys you’ve never heard of, but the only real stars on this team are Brees and Graham, with a nod to Colston if he can ever have another healthy season. I was worried about Cam Newton’s prospects as an NFL quarterback coming out of the draft, and once the hype came to a crescendo after a great opening game, I thought for certain there was about to be a crash. However, Newton has continued to perform and put up numbers unbecoming of his experience and his situation. And Steve Smith looks a decade younger out there.
Raiders–Texans
The Raiders have looked better this year than they have in a long, long time. Their quarterback has been good enough, and that speed they’ve been drafting for years has finally paid off. If Darren McFadden had been able to really get it going on the ground, the Raiders would have done everything they wanted to against a Texans defense that’s gaining steam. For the Texans, their stock just keeps plummeting. For years, yours truly has been picked them to win that division, and I finally gave up this year and picked the Colts anyway. Now I have no faith in my ability to predict this division and will not be overly surprised if the Titans come out on top. The Texans, as well as fantasy owners, are praying every day that Andre Johnson gets back ASAP to keep this year from being lost to another 8-8 finish. Houston has a great team, but their playoff potential is slipping with each major injury.
The Color Silver
In a freakish turn of events, the Patriots had become the league’s most penalized team (in total penalties and penalty yards) through five weeks, with 40 penalties for 355 yards. The Raiders, with 11 total penalties on Sunday, in honor of their past glory, made a run at that top spot as they stalled multiple drives as the first half wound down. They even brought out the ever-popular holding penalty on back-to-back plays. But the Lions made a furious comeback on Monday Night to take first place; they were actually responsible for more Chicago first downs in the first quarter than the Bears offense was! The Lions now have 43 penalties for 315 yards.
Bengals–Jaguars
On paper, the Jags looked better than the Bengals this weekend. Hill had better stats than Green, MJD had better stats than Cedric Benson, and Dalton had the two touchdowns, though Gabbert had better yards on fewer attempts. Really, it was the Bengals defense that made the difference, and it was their score on a fumble recovery that really iced the game. Green’s talent can’t be denied, and he certainly should be started, but you will not find him on any of my lineups per my fantasy philosophy of staying away from entire teams that I don’t feel good about. With all of the drama in Cincy, I just can’t get behind any skill players, despite how impressive their stats are. However, I would consider the Bengals DST a good fill-in for any bye weeks or bad matchups for your starters.
Buccaneers–49ers
Well, I suppose all of those conspiracy theories that Harbaugh might throw the season to get Andrew Luck are finally put to rest. I have been hesitant to believe in San Francisco this year because of all of the hype that surrounded them last year. However, these 49ers appear to be buying into Harbaugh’s system and likely only need three or four more wins to clinch their division. If their momentum continues to grow, watch for 49ers players to quickly be snatched off of waiver wires worldwide.
Chargers–Broncos
If John Fox is smart, the Tim Tebow era has finally come. Tebow hasn’t proven he’s worthy of starter status, but his popularity has reached a fever pitch. The Broncos were losing when Orton was in, and they made an inspired comeback once Tebow took over. Look for Tebow to be a great Week 7 pickup as he heads to Miami where the Sunday pregame show will celebrate the ’09 Florida Gators championship. How about a maniacal fanbase cheering for your QB on the road against a team that can’t get it together at home? Yes, please. An inspired performance with that kind of crowd could win Tebow the job permanently.
For the Chargers, they have still started slow and have still been generally underwhelming through September, but unlike in previous years, they’ve managed to hang on and are 4-1. If they come on like they have in the past, this could be a devastating lead for the rest of the division to catch up to. Watch for Chargers players to be a major factor in the fortune of owners in the fantasy playoffs.
Jets–Patriots
My wife’s suggestion for this section:
“Dear Jets and Patriots fans, I hated this game. It doesn’t have anything to do with your teams except for the fact that they were the ones in it.”
While mostly true, this is another game that went about as predictably as possible. The offensive line woes for the Jets are tearing apart their entire offense, and the offensive line strength of the Patriots is helping Brady tear apart defenses league wide. As much as Ryan may want the Jets to get back to “ground and pound,” they really could have stuck with the pass for one more week, as the Patriots’ pass defense is so miserable.
Packers–Falcons
Honestly, I thought Aaron Rodgers would’ve defeated the Falcons twice at home by more points. I mean, with a team that talented, I thought he would throw for six touchdowns and run for two more. I can’t believe he allowed Michael Turner to run for that touchdown. Why didn’t he return a punt for a score? Certainly an athlete this fantastic should be able to play all three phases of the game.
$#^% Chris Collinsworth Says
“Right now the Packers offensive line needs to Skype somebody on the outside ‘cause they need help!”
Shortly after Chad Clifton went down, the Packers O-line looked miserable. They appeared confused, and the Falcons pass rushers were circling their prey in anticipation. However, the Packers settled down on their next possession and went on to fend off the Falcons without a hitch for the rest of the game.
Lions–Bears
Jay Cutler flashed what convinced the Bears to bring him in and what convinced the Broncos to draft him early. For at least one prime-time game, he looked downright heroic. He was throwing hyper-accurate darts all over the field and was a couple of dropped passes from being even more impressive. It is frustrating having to watch him constantly dodge the pass rush. The believer in me is screaming, “What if he had protection? He could be the next Steve Young!” but the cynic in me is saying, “Yeah right. Remember last week when he couldn’t complete a pass? The Broncos upgraded with Orton!”
The Lions looked mighty good on Monday Night as even Jahvid Best got involved on actual rushes instead of just catching passes. They did everything they wanted on offense and kept Cutler running all night on defense. The Lions earn a well deserved 5-0 start and just have to feel somewhat unlucky to be in the same division as the Packers, the only other undefeated team in the NFL.
On that note, I bid you adieu until next Tuesday, fantasy football fans. For next week, I’m looking forward to starting Ravens and Cowboys who have favorable matchups against the Texans and Patriots. Watch for Flacco, Boldin, Romo, and Dez Bryant to all have big games next Sunday.
By: Dave Stringer — October 7, 2011 @ 1:27 pm
1. Big news coming out of Miami this week with word that quarterback Chad Henne will miss the rest of the season due to a shoulder injury suffered during the Dolphins loss to the Chargers. Henne’s injury likely spells doom both for his future as the team’s starting quarterback as well the future of head coach Tony Sparano. The Dolphins needed to contend for a playoff spot this season in order for Sparano to earn a contract extension but the chances of that happening with Miami sitting at 0-4 and Henne out for the season are remote at best. Sparano got the kiss of death this week when the team’s majority owner Steven Ross gave him a vote of confidence. As for Henne, he is an unrestricted free agent at season’s end and has done little to suggest that the Dolphins will re-sign him, having compiled a 13-18 record as the team’s starting quarterback.
2. With Henne out of the picture, the Dolphins will turn to veteran journeyman Matt Moore to take his spot in the starting line up. The team also signed Sage Rosenfels this week to bolster the depth chart and it wouldn’t be a surprise if he takes over at some point. Moore started for the Panthers at the end of the 2009 season, compiling a 4-1 record with eight touchdowns and just a pair of interceptions. However, he bombed in the starting role in 2010, winning just one of six starts before suffering a season-ending injury.
3. Dolphin central this week. If you’re wondering what the impact of Miami replacing Henne with Moore for the team’s wide receivers, more specifically Brandon Marshall, here is what you need to know. Despite having Steve Smith at his disposal in Carolina, Moore has averaged just 6.7 yards per attempt, making him more of a checkdown artist than Henne. Moore clearly does not possess Henne’s arm strength so there is little reason to suggest that Marshall will be able to deliver the big plays that were missing from the Dolphins offense for most of the 2010 season. From a fantasy perspective, that makes running back Reggie Bush the player most likely to benefit with Moore in the starting line up.
4. The Rams placed wide receiver Danny Amendola on injured reserve this week. Amendola was the team’s top receiver in 2010, catching 85 passes for 689 yards and three touchdowns. The Rams attempted to upgrade their receivers this year, signing former Jaguar Mike Sims-Walker and using three draft picks on tight end Lance Kendricks (2nd round), Austin Pettis (3rd) and Greg Salas (4th). Unfortunately for the Rams and quarterback Sam Bradford, that hasn’t worked out as planned. That quartet has combined to catch just 30 of 68 targets for 329 yards and no touchdowns while dropping a several passes, including some in key situations. St. Louis has turned to Danario Alexander over the last three weeks (23 targets) while reducing the role of Brandon Gibson this past week (one target). However, the receiver who may ultimately provide a boost to the Rams passing attack is Mark Clayton. Clayton is eligible to come off the physically unable to perform list after Week 6 and was Bradford’s main target during the early part of the 2010 season. Despite being acquired from the Ravens at the end of the preseason, Clayton caught 22 passes for 300 yards and a pair of touchdowns during his first four games before suffering a season-ending knee injury in Week 5.
Rushing into the record books. 5. Thus far in 2011, Eagles quarterback Michael Vick has not been able to replicate his 2010 production but he has a chance to reach a league milestone during this week’s road game against Buffalo. Vick needs just 71 yards to surpass Randall Cunningham to become the league’s all-time leading rusher amongst quarterbacks. Considering Vick is just 31 years old and does not appear to have lost any of the speed he entered the league with, the only obstacle to him making this record virtually untouchable is remaining injury free. If only he could start scoring some touchdowns for his fantasy owners (none so far in 2011 after scoring nine in just 12 games last season).
6. Last week, I told you that there was little chance of the Broncos handing over the leading running back role to Willis McGahee, mainly due to his age, lack of explosiveness and because it made sense for them to figure out what they had in former 1st round pick Knowshon Moreno. Denver head coach John Fox thought otherwise, stating this week that McGahee had earned the right to be the team’s starter after a pair of 100-yard rushing efforts over the last three weeks. I guess what I was missing was that McGahee was brought in by Fox and Moreno was acquired by the previous regime. That means I forgot the golden rule that all NFL head coaches prefer to provide the solution rather than have the solution be on the roster when they arrive. Nonetheless, McGahee is averaging a pedestrian 3.8 yards per carry and just 4.5 yards per reception so there is a decent chance Moreno ends up in the lead role soon enough.
7. The scuttlebutt surrounding the Redskins running back situation is that it’s best to avoid the teams’ three running backs altogether for fantasy purposes. Tim Hightower looked solid in the preseason, claiming the starting role on opening day from an injured Ryan Torain with rookie 4th round pick Roy Helu set as the team’s main backup. Sure enough, head coach Mike Shanahan seems to have changed that rotation with the emergence of Torain this week against the Rams (19 carries, 135 yards and a touchdown). All you had to do was watch that game to realize the talent differential between Torain and Hightower. The competition for the lead back role isn’t between Torain and Hightower (as most pundits have it), it’s between Torain and Helu. While Torain clearly is the more powerful of the two runners, Helu has the breakaway speed and upside that Shanahan craves in his running backs. Look for Torain to be given every chance to keep the job but history says that either injury or performance will provide Helu with an opportunity to start, probably sooner rather than later.
8. On initial glance, the news that Bengals running back Cedric Benson was facing a three game suspension for his off the field indiscretions couldn’t have come at a worse time for his fantasy owners with the bye weeks beginning this week. However, it appears that Benson’s appeal of his suspension could take a few, if not several, weeks to be resolved as his legal team is challenging the league’s right to suspend players for their off the field actions when they were locked out. Benson owners should hold off on hitting the panic button until this situation is resolved.
9. And on a somewhat football related note, I’m going to miss Hank Williams Jr. doing the introduction to Monday Night Football. It used to send shivers up my spine when I was younger, as it heightened the anticipation of what was generally a key game, often between division rivals. Not that I’m condoning his actions.
By: Dave Stringer — October 4, 2011 @ 2:48 pm
Quarterbacks
Moving Up
Cam Newton, Panthers
Let’s do the projections. Passing yards: 5,544. Passing touchdowns: 20. Rushing touchdowns: 16. Fantasy points: 507. And it’s not like Newton’s been putting up these numbers against bad defenses. By season’s end, Chicago and Green Bay figure to be in the top ten in total defense, Arizona should be middle of the pack and the Jaguars will likely be near the bottom. In fact, if you toss out the Jacksonville game where the weather was horrendous, Newton is averaging 37.3 points per game. I’m rolling with him as my number one unless I own Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady, Michael Vick or Drew Brees.
Moving Down
 Schaub becomes is a big question mark with AJ out of the lineup. Matt Schaub, Texans
Schaub hasn’t been the same fantasy producer since Arian Foster burst onto the scene in 2010 and with Foster back in the line up for this week’s game against the Steelers, he had his worst fantasy performance since Week 5 of last season with just 11.0 fantasy points on 138 yards passing and one touchdown. Even worse than that, it appears that wide receiver Andre Johnson will miss time with an injured hamstring. Jacoby Jones would take Johnson’s spot in the starting line up but he has been a disappointment. If AJ is out, the Texans will turn to Foster even more than they did against the Steelers (30 carries), rendering Schaub even more of a question mark than he has been since the end of the 2009 season.
Sam Bradford, Rams
A quarter of the way into the 2011 season and it’s time to shelve the notion that new offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels is going to turn the Rams passing attack into one of the league’s best and make Bradford a solid fantasy starter. Where to begin… the Rams lead the league in dropped passes, the offensive line has given up a league worst 19 sacks and McDaniels continues to feed wide receiver Mike Sims-Walker and tight end Lance Kendricks who have combined to catch 39.6% of their passes (19 of 48).
Running Backs
Moving Up
Arian Foster, Texans
He’s back. And with a bang. Not only did Foster return with a vengeance, gaining 155 yards and touchdown on 30 carries against the Steelers in his first full game of the season, the Texans coaching staff kept backup Ben Tate nailed to the bench, which may or may not have been the result of a groin injury. Tate had just two carries despite the team’s heavy reliance on the run and maybe, just maybe the assumption that Tate had earned himself a solid chunk of playing time was fallacious.
Stevan Ridley, Patriots
Ridley has now outperformed starter BenJarvis Green-Ellis for two straight games, gaining 97 yards and a touchdown this week on 10 carries after putting up 44 yards on seven carries in Week 3. The Law Firm also performed decently in the Patriots 31-19 win over the Raiders with 75 yards and a score on his 16 carries but it appears that this will be a timeshare situation moving forward. The only caveat here is that BJGE is unlikely to make a mistake that causes him to lose playing time while the rookie Ridley is far more likely to lose a fumble or a blow a pass protection that lands him a spot in Bill Belichick’s doghouse and on the bench.
Ryan Torain, Redskins
I’ve been preaching that Tim Hightower is a dud for weeks (read it here and down at the bottom here). Okay, maybe I was banking a little more on rookie 4th round pick Roy Helu than Torain. This week, head coach Mike Shanahan had Hightower on a short leash after his lackluster performance against the Cowboys that caused Helu to see time in the fourth quarter for the second week in a row. Sure enough, Hightower disappointed with just 24 yards on eight carries, opening the door for Torain who ran roughshod over the Rams, gaining 135 yards and a touchdown on his 19 runs. That’s a nifty 7.1 yards per carry and it’s worth noting that he averaged 4.5 last year while Hightower is at 3.5 in 2011. The best part is that Torain’s almost assuredly available on your league’s waiver wire. Giddy up.
Matt Forte, Bears
With Forte, it’s by ground or by air. He’s the FedEx of Fantasy Football, getting the job done one way or the other each week. His receiving production carried the day for the first three weeks of the season (22 receptions for 287 yards and a score) and this week, the mail got delivered on the ground to the tune of 205 yards and a touchdown against the Panthers. He’s hit double-digit fantasy points in three of the Bears first four games and is averaging 18.9 points per game. Can you say RB1? This isn’t a Sell High. It’s the type of good, solid production that nets you a championship.
Isaac Redman, Steelers
Rashard Mendenhall suffered a hamstring injury that caused him to miss most of the second half of the Steelers loss this week to the Texans. Redman and Mewelde Moore split the workload with Redman finishing with six carries for 40 yards and he even chipped in a reception for 12 yards. Of the two, Redman is the running back to own if Mendenhall were to miss any time given that he would get the goal line work. The Steelers are a mess and so is their offensive line but Redman would likely be worth a look in your lineup if he ends up starting.
Moving Down
Knowshon Moreno, Broncos
Mea culpa. I was wrong or at least it seems that way. Either Moreno re-injured his hamstring this week or the Broncos new coaching staff isn’t interested in finding out whether he can be the team’s lead running back. Back in the lineup this week after a two game absence, Moreno carried the ball just twice while Willis McGahee had 15 carries for 103 yards in a blowout loss to the Packers. McGahee’s performance doesn’t count for much considering the Packers were up by 11 by the end of the first quarter and never looked back. But Moreno’s lack of use does because he is definitely the better receiver of the two but had just one target despite the Broncos needing to pass for much of the game.
Peyton Hillis, Browns
I’m not a doctor so I can’t say with certainty that strep throat could cause you to miss a start and then need to split time the following week. However, since I doubt that’s the case, the only reason to explain Hillis getting 15 touches and Montario Hardesty getting 12 is that the Browns running back rotation has quickly turned into a timeshare. Hardesty has looked decent given his increased playing time over the past two weeks, gaining 157 yards on 21 touches. The next week or two will tell us whether Hillis has a chance to reclaim his 2010 fantasy glory this season but the odds seem set against him (and his owners).
Thomas Jones and Dexter McCluster, Chiefs
I told you the answer to losing Jamaal Charles wasn’t either of his handcuffs but I can’t say I thought Jones and McCluster would be this bad. They have COMBINED (yes, combined) for 17 fantasy points over the past two weeks against the Chargers and Vikings. That’s ten points for McCluster and seven for Jones. If you were planning on riding one of these guys, it’s time to move on.
Wide Receivers
Moving Up
Julio Jones, Falcons
The Falcons 1st round pick has been dynamite thus far in his rookie season, with 24 receptions for 342 yards. Impressive indeed but when you scroll down FFToday’s season statistics at wide receiver, he’s currently the 28th ranked fantasy wideout. Not impressive as we’d expect and it’s all to do with touchdowns. See, Julio has looked great but he hasn’t found the end zone just yet. If his owner sees him as just a WR3, then it’s high time to hand over a decent trade offer. Jones has topped 100 yards in each of his last two games and got heavy use this week against the Seahawks with 17 targets, catching 11 passes for 127 yards. He’s a solid WR2 for the balance of the season.
Pierre Garcon, Colts
Monday Night Football. Two long touchdowns and 146 yards receiving, both career highs. You know all of your fellow owners saw it. He’s Moving Up but he’s also Sell high, folks.
Michael Crabtree, 49ers
Grabbing five of nine targets for 68 yards and failing to find the end zone generally isn’t going to get you Moving Up. But it does for Crabtree. Stick with me here. He was left for dead, fantasy persona non grata. Five for 68 against a solid Eagles secondary is pretty decent production. He’s apparently back to full health. And maybe, just maybe the 49ers offense has something to build on after a solid, come from behind win over Philadelphia.
Laurent Robinson, Cowboys
If you’ve seen Robinson in a few games, you know that he’s a talented wide receiver. Lack of talent isn’t the issue, staying healthy is. And when you don’t contribute on special teams, you need to be in the starting lineup and teams generally like their starters to be reliable (aka healthy). With Miles Austin out of the lineup with a quad injury, Robinson had a solid outing, catching seven of ten targets for 116 yards. The Cowboys have a Week 5 bye and Austin is expected to be back in the line up for Week 6 but Robinson is worth taking a shot on in deeper leagues since it seems like Austin and Dez Bryant are taking turns on the inactive list.
Jacoby Jones, Texans
Well, Andre Johnson owners can rest assured that Jones has no chance of replacing AJ’s production so better to find another option. That being said, if you’re in a deep league and need to find something, Jones is worth a shot. There you have it – a tepid a Moving Up as you’ll ever find. Yes, it was a slow week for Moving Up at the wide receiver position.
Moving Down
Mario Manningham, Giants
Manningham was one of this season’s fantasy darlings at wide receiver, expected to post a breakout season after a pair of solid seasons as the Giants third option behind Hakeem Nicks and Steve Smith. With Smith out of the picture having signed with the Eagles and no proven slot receiver or tight end on the roster, Manningham figured to be in line for plenty of targets. However, his stock is sliding after concussion suffered in Week 2, a subpar performance to start the season from quarterback Eli Manning and a trip to the bench this week against the Cardinals after he apparently ran some wrong patterns. That gets Manningham Moving Down but also makes him a great Buy Low opportunity since Cruz is nothing more than a slot receiver and the Giants have no one behind Manningham capable of starting outside.
Devery Henderson, Saints
Let’s see. With a full slate of cast and characters at wide receiver and tight end for the first time this season and diminutive running back Darren Sproles earning plenty of touches, Henderson had one target and no receptions. Hopefully Henderson’s owners enjoyed the nice three week run he had because, barring injury, it’s not going to repeat itself.
Plaxico Burress, Jets
You generally need to get open to get the ball and it doesn’t seem like Plaxico can do that on a regular basis anymore. The Jets have opened the season against four teams with that either have suspect secondaries or injury issues in the secondary and he hasn’t been able to do much with just ten receptions on 25 yards. Sure, he’s scored two touchdowns but it’s a roll of the dice to be relying on touchdowns for fantasy production.
Tight Ends
Moving Up
Jimmy Graham, Saints
Just like Henderson is Moving Down because his looks decreased with everybody available, Graham is Moving Up because he was quarterback Drew Brees’ main weapon this week against the Jaguars with career highs in targets, receptions and yards. Graham caught ten of his 14 targets for 132 yards and a TD and the performance helped make him the 2nd ranked tight end for the season behind only Rob Gronkowski of the Patriots. Don’t expect that to change with Graham having a shot to be the top ranked tight end by season’s end with Antonio Gates injury situation ensuring he will not earn that title.
Tony Gonzalez, Falcons
Here’s a begrudging Moving Up to Gonzalez who, on first glance, appears to be having a bit of a renaissance season in Atlanta. The 35 year-old has four touchdowns in his last three games and 21 receptions for 229 yards on the season, this after a lackluster 2010 sin which he posted a career low 9.4 yards per reception and topped 50 receiving yards just four times. He is clearly benefitting from the extra attention afforded wide receivers Roddy White and Julio Jones, not to mention the Falcons inability to run the ball. I’m not sold on him keeping it up so this is definitely a Sell High opportunity.
Brandon Pettigrew, Lions
After two games, it sure looked like the pundits who had predicted that strong armed quarterback Matthew Stafford would lighten Pettigrew’s load in favor of chucking it downfield to Calvin Johnson et al were right on the mark. The 2009 1st round pick had just nine targets over the first two weeks but his role changed dramatically starting in a Week 3 win over the Vikings. With running back Jahvid Best struggling, Pettigrew essentially became the Lions short yardage option and that role continued this week against the Cowboys. He has chalked up 22 targets over the past two weeks, catching 17 passes for 176 yards, and there’s little reason to expect that to change. If only he could find the end zone (no touchdowns in 2011).
Moving Down
Fred Davis, Redskins
Davis looked like a world-beater over the first two games of the season, catching 11 of 13 targets for 191 yards and a score. And then head coach Mike Shanahan inexplicably forgot about him against a Cowboys squad with a pair of coverage challenged safeties and again this week against a Rams squad whose secondary allowed three touchdowns passes to Ravens rookie 2nd round pick Torrey Smith. I guess Shanny is extending his fantasy curse from running backs to also include tight ends.
Brent Celek, Eagles
Second year player Clay Harbor caught three passes for 55 yards and a touchdown this week, nearly eclipsing Celek’s production for the year. If there was a flicker of hope for Celek reclaiming his fantasy status from the 2009 season when he finished as the fourth ranked fantasy tight end (and it’s debatable whether there was a flicker), those hopes should now be extinguished. To the scrap heap, even in the deepest of leagues.
By: Aaron Williams — @ 10:57 am
Welcome to Tuesday Morning Buzz! Most fans should be pretty happy this week. Win or Loss, most teams had a pretty good showing and proved to be either contenders for the playoffs or thorns in the sides of contenders for the playoffs. Let’s get right into it:
Panthers – Bears
How about that Cam Newton? He did everything he could to upset the status quo here. He is burning down the opinions of those, like yours truly, who said that rookie quarterbacks shouldn’t be trusted and that that Newton hadn’t proven enough to warrant the first-round pick. He threw deep on a Bears secondary that makes its money on keeping the play in front of them. And he’s certainly statistically the most impressive rookie quarterback. In fact, I’d wager that if you count tangibles and intangibles he’s probably looking the best a rookie has ever looked, especially at a 1-3 record. There’s still plenty of time for this thing to come crashing down around their ankles, but right now my guess is that Panthers fans would rather be 1-3 with Cam than 4-0 with Clausen.
For the Bears, I don’t have much to say here. The special teams unit had a punt return, a kick return, and a blocked punt and still managed to come out with fewer points than they began the day with. The Chicago defense, special teams, and receivers, along with Jay Cutler, are who we thought they were. Forte is proving his worth and making owners who were brave enough to draft a running back on the Martz-led Bears feel good about their third-round pick.
Bills – Bengals
The league’s top comeback-win team fell to the hapless Bengals this weekend. I am a big fan of what the Bills have been able to accomplish this year. Ryan Fitzpatrick and Stevie Johnson are both starters on a great many of my fantasy teams this season. At halftime the score was 17-3, Fitzpatrick and Johnson had their typical first-half points, and I was ecstatic. These Bills just keep scoring like mad in the second half, and I was certain the minimal first-half offense was going to translate into huge gains in the late quarters. Unfortunately, it was all Bengals in the second half as the Bills were one field goal away from their final score. I still trust no Bengal, and I still love those Bills, but this is one the Buffalo fans and fantasy owners are going to need to forget quickly—the Bills come home to an angry Philadelphia Eagles team next week.
Titans – Browns
If the question “What do you think of the Dolphins and the Titans?” were posed to me at the beginning of the year, my answer would have been a single word: “Terrible.” Now, while the Dolphins have been doing their darnedest to prove me hypothetically correct, the Tennessee Titans are looking good. This is perfect for them because I could feel the anxiety coming from Houston that there just might be no teams to give the division to this year. Matt Hasselbeck has given just as much life to this franchise as this franchise has given to his career. He was dropped for the lowly Tarvaris Jackson in Seattle and now has the Titans on a three-game winning streak without their main playmakers (Kenny Britt is out; Chris Johnson might as well be.) I’m trading CJ2K this week for anything I can get and, beginning Week 7, after a matchup in Pittsburgh and the bye, I’m starting Hasselbeck for the rest of the year unless I find myself with one of the elite few at the top.
Lions – Cowboys
Oh my, was there a lot of silver in this game! In the first half, Dallas was rolling and Detroit couldn’t do a thing. Tony Romo and the Cowboys were looking like world beaters, and if you slowed the frame rate down you could see a halo just beginning to form around Romo’s helmeted countenance. Unfortunately for Dallas, after halftime you have to come back onto the field. It was as if the Cowboys said, “Wait a minute. Do you see the silver on our uniforms? We can’t be doing this well against a nationally acclaimed team!”
The Lions roared back in the second half, and I like to think it was just to prove me right. Last week, much to the chagrin of Lions fans, I warned that Detroit was looking like a “come-from-behind team” and cautioned that the true greats can build a lead and keep it. At that point, the Lions had won one game from behind and had soundly defeated only the awful Kansas City Chiefs and a young Buccaneers team that is still discovering who they are. Now, I wonder, how Lions fans feel as 50% of their total wins and 66% of their road wins are come-from-behind victories. I don’t mean to trash the team; they have great talent. I am just not sure that they yet know how to win. They are 4-0 and looking very impressive, but they are closer to being 2-2 or even 1-3 than most fans would probably like.
 AJ may be out for "some time." Steelers – Texans
The Texans, like the Lions, have great talent and a great record this year but, like the Lions, they make me extremely nervous. I have lost many a dollar the past few years picking Houston to win the AFC South. This year, however, they look poised to finally take that step and showed it in a solid victory over the Steelers. To contrast the big win over what may have been their most daunting opponent coming into the year, the Texans lost Andre Johnson for “some time.” In the same game that they regained Arian Foster from a nagging hamstring, they lost AJ to the same injury. Expect at least three to four weeks before Johnson is back to form. Because of that, Schaub is one of those QBs I would be sitting for Matt Hasselbeck—possibly for the rest of the year.
Saints – Jaguars
There really wasn’t much to see here. Blaine Gabbert looked like a fine rookie quarterback through the first half but went on a dreadful Jay Cutleresque 0-for-10 streak during the second. The Saints were the Saints, and the oft-injured Marques Colston came in only to block, though he did catch one check-down late in the game. Along with Ryan Fitzpatrick and Stevie Johnson, I’ve been soaking up the greatness of the young Jimmy Graham, who I drafted in the 12th round while some owners were drafting the Pittsburgh DST.
Vikings – Chiefs
I was sure that, against Kansas City, Minnesota would break my favorite hyper-specific stat of Week 3, when the Vikings were tagged “the first team to lose the first three games of the season after leading by double digits at halftime in each consecutive game.” Well, they broke that streak, but not quite in the way I expected.
Not only did they not build a double-digit lead, they barely scored double-digits against a Chiefs defense that had allowed 36.3 points per game coming in. For Chiefs fans, if you can forgive the first two weeks of the season, you have two close games and a 1-1 record, which shouldn’t be too far away from preseason rankings. However, I am thankful I am not in a league where I have to decide if I want to put my week in the hands of Dwayne Bowe. I’ve said it before, “Dwayne Bowe: Great for fantasy team names, terrible for fantasy teams.”
49ers – Eagles
Ah, the Eagles locker room must be in a worse mood than the city of Philadelphia is these days. When I watch the Eagles play with Vick under center, they seem to be doing well. Vick has a 61.2% completion percentage and is on pace for 4,000 yards passing, LeSean McCoy has been running with purpose, and the defense hasn’t allowed that many points. And yet, Vick has pedestrian fantasy numbers in two of his four games and has been sacked just as many times as he’s thrown a touchdown (6). On the other side of the ball, the Jim Harbaugh-led 49ers are very quietly 3-1 in an eight-win division. If the 49ers are playing for the division late in the season, look for some of these guys to be heroes of the fantasy playoffs.
P.S. Can we quit with the “nightmare” and “dream team” analogies? I bet Vince Young wants to punch Dan Patrick in the face. Or at least throw some batteries at him.
Redskins – Rams
In competition for one of the most boring football games of the season, the Redskins and the Rams slugged it out for four quarters, and Washington wound up with 17 points on the back of their running game. Now, despite having infinitely more touchdowns this game than Dallas had last week, this score still would not have defeated the Cowboys’ all-field-goal score of Week 3. This Rams defense has looked mediocre over four games but had allowed 32 points per game coming into Sunday. If you can’t go on the road and outscore Dan Bailey’s leg and a team allowing that many points per game, there is no way you can compete in your division. I know what the Redskins’ record looks like now, but if they can finish this season at .500 I will frankly be shocked. As for the Rams? Maybe next year, guys. Sam Bradford is a fantastic quarterback, but this team has a lot of holes to fill, especially on offense, before they become fantasy-relevant.
Giants – Cardinals
The much maligned Beanie Wells and Eli Manning both continued to cement their comebacks in this game. Wells, on what is considered a pass-first offense, ran for 138 yards and 3 TDs versus a normally tough and hardnosed Giants defense. Granted, Wells won’t get 27 carries each week, but he also won’t be playing the New York Giants each week, so I consider that a wash in the terrible NFC West. For Eli, the NFC East is also looking particularly vulnerable, and he’s quickly turning around a poor preseason and an awful start to the regular season. Eli has always started slow but gotten better by October (he was drafted by the San Diego Chargers after all…) and it seems as though that tradition will continue. Eli Manning, Matt Hasselbeck, and Ryan Fitzpatrick are a fantastic class of QBs no one likes. I’m counting on these gentlemen to continue to impress and put at least two of their teams in the playoffs this year.
Broncos – Packers
For as far out of this game as they were, the Broncos never really acted as if they were out of it until well into the fourth quarter. Lloyd looked good, Decker scored a ton of points from fantasy owners’ benches (mine included) all around the league, Orton continued to do just well enough to keep himself in the starter’s seat, and the D played better than the score shows. For the Packers, all was normal in fantasy land: Rodgers can’t be benched, any Green Bay WR is worth a shot, and no Green Bay RB is worth a shot. I like Grant and Starks, but neither of them are going to do well enough this season to ever justify starting them in standard leagues. I would take Randall Cobb in my flex position before either RB in any matchup this year.
This game contained the hyper-specific stat of the week, “Aaron Rodgers is the first Packers quarterback to pass for 400-plus yards and four TDs since Brett Favre.” Aaron Rodgers is a great quarterback, but in our incessant lovefest, we’re now looking for new ways to attribute greatness to him. Any quarterback doing anything is the “first” to do it since the previous quarterback. Credit this fantastic analysis to CBS.
Patkowskis – Raiders
Another third-round RB like Matt Forte, Darren McFadden, continued to shine in this game, though he did look somewhat human, emerging with 123 yards but no touchdowns. My money is on McFadden as this year’s leading rusher by season’s end. As for the Pats, they continue to let Tom Brady throw the ball, although he’s now on pace for a paltry 6,212-yard season. Breaking Marino’s all-time record by a mere 1,200 yards almost seems disappointing after all the swooning over Brady’s passing numbers this year.
Dolphins – Chargers
In a game where both offenses looked stale (1 rushing TD, 1 receiving TD for San Diego; 1 rushing TD for Miami), I’m not sure there is really much to glean from this game as far as fantasy goes. Philip Rivers still connected on the patented deep bomb to V-Jax for a touchdown, and Mike Tolbert still got in the end zone from the goal line. Ryan Mathews still had more carries, more yards, and a better yards-per-carry average.
For Miami, the injury to Chad Henne means no chance for a win as long as he is out. I know the fans in Miami don’t like him, but he’s a good quarterback who has shown flashes of greatness this year. As for the running game, Lex Hilliard inexplicably had a better day than Daniel Thomas (out), Reggie Bush (13 carries but only 50 yards), and Steve Slaton. Heck, Slaton had the same amount of carries as “backup” quarterback Chad Henne, but, hey, at least Slaton was able to double Henne’s rushing output by gaining two yards. It’s not all bad for Miami, though. In fact, you could say that Chad Henne is the first quarterback to rush for at least one yard since Chad Pennington!
Jets – Ravens
From a technical standpoint, this was one of the most interesting games of the weekend. Both QBs had abysmal outings (they combined for 282 yards, 0 TDs, and 2 INTs), and Sanchez alone fumbled four times and lost three. Every facet of both offenses stalled, Shonn Greene went 10 for 23, and Ray Rice went 25 for 66, though he did score a touchdown. This was all about the defenses and their record-setting five returns for scores. While the offense had an off night, that Ravens D is looming mighty large for the AFC North. Could this be their year? For the Jets, this is common of the Rex Ryan era. They’re flying low right now, but watch for them to be just good enough to get into the playoffs as a wild card and be a pain in everyone’s side.
It doesn’t get much easier for the Jets next week as they go to Foxborough to battle the much-hated Patkowskis. It has become an extremely rare occurrence for the home team to lose in Gillette Stadium, and I don’t see the upset after this loss. My bets are on the Jets looking uninspired in New England, despite how important this game really is, and I’m likely sitting any of the Jets I own.
$#^! Chris Collinsworth Says
On the defensive takeaway driven scoring of the game:
“If these teams played with no offense they’d have a better chance of winning!”
Chris Collinsworth, in the way only he can, called out these offenses for being woefully inept on Sunday night. In a very Mike Singletary “I’d rather play with ten players and get penalized all the way down the field” type of comment, Chris illustrated what we all saw and what we should have expected from a Ravens-Jets game.
Colts – Buccaneers
For the first time in eight years, MNF kicked off in Tampa. At first, the Bucs seemed to struggle and the Colts offense was somehow moving well. However, during the second quarter, the Bucs began to shake the sleep off and started to fire back. But by the end of the third quarter, Pierre Garcon had caught two long-bomb touchdowns and the Buccaneers were back in dreamland, despite tying the score. These Colts have been underestimated so thoroughly that teams just can’t believe they’re in trouble against them. The Buccaneers talent eventually won out against the attrition of the Colts, but this is not the Indianapolis Colts of Week 1. If Painter starts and the matchup is right, I would consider him as a bye-week fill in.
The Colts on the other hand are banding together and playing total team football (did you see that epic Reggie Wayne block?). I can’t imagine a scenario where Curtis Painter is not the starter next week, despite Kerry Collins’ health. If the Colts want to win some games this season, though, they’re going to have to get out of those classic, simple defensive looks. The only thing more antiquated in Raymond James Stadium Monday Night was Peyton Manning’s rotary telephone upstairs. Come on Tampa, I know they’re the away team, but you couldn’t even spring for a touch tone?
Next week starts the byes weeks, and with the bye weeks come the one-week, waiver-wire superstars. Who will you pick up when Aaron Rodgers takes a week off? Maybe Curtis Painter? We’ll talk about it next week on Tuesday Morning Buzz.
By: Dave Stringer — September 30, 2011 @ 11:12 am
1. Broncos quarterback Kyle Orton spent all of the preseason looking over his shoulder at 2010 1st round pick Tim Tebow and the evidence is beginning to mount that a change may be in order in Denver. With one win and a pair of losses to open the season, Orton’s record over his last 25 games now stands at an unimpressive 6-19. While that may be an indictment of the Broncos as much as Orton, he has committed turnovers at key moments in each of the team’s losses and that hasn’t endured him to a fan base already clamoring to see Tebow in the starting line up.
2. Staying with the Broncos, there has been much speculation that former Raven Willis McGahee may take over as the team’s starting running back ahead of 2009 1st round pick Knowshon Moreno. Which begs the question – how does that make any sense? While Moreno has not lived up to his draft billing, the aging McGahee needed only two games of heavy use to prove that he is no longer a capable starter, gaining just 153 yards on 50 carries. He padded his fantasy stats with a pair of touchdowns (one on the ground and one receiving) making him an obvious sell-high candidate. While Moreno may prove that he isn’t the solution to solving the Broncos inconsistent rushing attack, there can be little doubt that McGahhe certainly isn’t the answer. Look for Denver to wisely spend the balance of the season figuring out just what they have in Moreno with McGahee relegated to a backup role.
3. Sticking with running back controversies, we move to Cleveland where 2nd year player Montario Hardesty subbed in for Peyton Hillis against Miami and had a solid game with 67 yards on 14 carries and three receptions for 19 yards. That prompted head coach Pat Shurmur to suggest that Hardesty was worthy of an increased role. However, that should come as no surprise since Hardesty was barely used during the first two games of the season, with only eight touches, this after the Browns spend the offseason saying they wanted to reduce Hillis’ workload due to his struggles down the stretch last season (272 rushing yards and no touchdowns over Cleveland’s final five games). This isn’t a case of Hardesty being a legitimate challenger to Hillis’ spot in the starting line up. It’s the Browns getting around to doing what they said they were going to do all along.
4. Next up we move to New England where rookie 3rd round pick Stevan Ridley is getting a lot of hype for out producing BenJarvis Green-Ellis this week. Ridley subbed in for Green-Ellis and looked impressive in gaining 42 yards on six carries and catching one pass for eight yards. Meanwhile, Green-Ellis struggled to his worst rushing day since Week 9 of last season with just 18 yards on 10 carries. Just don’t look for Ridley in the starting line up any time soon. The rookie missed time in training camp and the Patriots are not going to jeopardize the health of quarterback Tom Brady to get Ridley touches until he’s gotten all of the team’s blitz protections down pat. Not to mention that Green-Ellis was the Patriots most successful rusher since Corey Dillon last season, gaining 1,008 yards and 13 touchdowns on the ground.
 Offensive line woes may hamper Turner's fantasy value moving forward. 5. The Falcons have struggled to a 1-2 record to open the season and head coach Mike Smith has squarely put the blame on the team’s offensive line. This week, Smith told his offensive lineman that he was opening up all of the team’s starting positions to competition due to the poor play in both pass blocking and run blocking. Quarterback Matt Ryan has been sacked 13 times in three games and while running back Michael Turner is averaging 5.6 yards per carry, that statistic is misleading. The Falcons trailed early against the Bears and were more focused on stopping big plays, allowing Turner to run 10 times for 100 yards, and the Falcons Week 2 opponent, the Eagles, have perhaps the worst run defense in the league. While general manager Thomas Dimitroff has done a superb job of talent evaluation on the pro and college levels, the decision not to re-sign starting left guard Harvey Dahl is proving to be ill founded since he brought a mean streak to the unit that appears to be lacking. Unfortunately for Smith, there are no solid veterans or promising prospects behind his starters. Backups Joe Hawley, Will Svitek, Mike Johnson and Brett Romberg have a combined 24 career starts with 18 of those belonging to Romberg, the least likely backup to work his way into the starting line up. That likely ensures the current starting five will retain their jobs, with Dahl’s replacement Garrett Reynolds the only starter in jeopardy of being benched, so improvement will need to come from within and that may not bode well for the fantasy prospects of Ryan and Turner.
6. There are a number of head coaches on the hot seat due to the play of their teams over the first three weeks of the season but the Jaguars Jack Del Rio has managed to escaped much of the criticism that has been leveled at the Chiefs Todd Haley, Andy Reid of the Eagles and the Dolphins Tony Sparano amongst others. Jacksonville sits at 1-2 having eked out an opening week win over Tennessee followed by a crushing defeat to the Jets and a six point loss to Carolina. However, Del Rio’s decision to jettison quarterback David Garrard in favor of Luke McCown is looking worse each week as the AFC South is there for the taking. Perennial division winner Indianapolis has struggled mightily without Peyton Manning, current division leader Houston has a history of underperforming in big games and Tennessee sits at 2-1 but appears to be more pretender than contender. Meanwhile, Del Rio was forced to quickly abandon the McCown decision in favor of rookie 1st round pick Blaine Gabbert who looked serviceable running the team’s dink and dunk offense in his first start. Del Rio’s miscalculation will almost certainly earn the wrath of owner Wayne Weaver given that a run at the AFC South title seems improbable but was a definite possibility with Garrard. Such a scenario would have reenergized the team’ fan base which is a big concern for Weaver.
7. If you subscribe to the theory that starting running backs in the NFL need to be able to successfully run the ball to maintain their jobs, then it might be time to sell high on the Lions Jahvid Best. Best has put up 44.5 fantasy points over the Lions first three games, rushing for 149 yards and a touchdown and gaining 183 yards through the air to go along with another touchdown. However, he is averaging just 2.9 yards per carry after averaging 3.2 in 2010 for which most of us gave him a free pass due to the numerous injuries that marred his rookie season. Considering the Lions have featured one of the most dynamic passing offenses in the league over the first three weeks of the season, there’s no free pass in 2011. What Best amounts to is a running back that relies on touchdowns and passing yards for points and that is a recipe for inconsistent production, not to mention a spot on the bench when a team is trying to eat up the clock.
By: Dave Stringer — September 27, 2011 @ 2:19 pm
Quarterbacks
Moving Up
Ryan Fitzpatrick, Bills
Every year, a couple of quarterbacks seemingly come out of nowhere and put together a career season and Fitzpatrick is in line for such a performance in 2011. He ain’t pretty, he’s just getting a lot of yards and wins for his team and for his fantasy owners. After three weeks, it’s high time for his owners to start thinking about riding him and moving whoever they acquired to be their fantasy starter in a trade to shore up their roster. Fitzpatrick has 841 passing yards and nine touchdowns for the season but his yardage total isn’t overly impressive because he was limited to 208 yards passing in a Week 1 blowout win over the Chiefs (offset by four touchdown passes). He looks starter worthy for the remainder of the season.
Mike Kafka, Eagles
I had him here last week. Just saying. With Michael Vick possibly out with a badly bruised right hand, Kafka has a chance to be under center in a Week 4 matchup against a 49er secondary that is generous to opposing offenses. He didn’t look as good this week as he did last (two interceptions in mop up duty) but he is worth a look if he plays and you are desperate for a starter this week.
Moving Down
Michael Vick, Eagles
He’s not Moving Down just because he’s hurt, although the evidence is mounting that the odds of him staying healthy for an extended period are extremely low. He’s also here because he hasn’t been that good… certainly nowhere near as productive as he was in 2010. Vick is averaging just over 200 yards passing per game despite facing a porous Rams secondary, the Falcons mid-tier passing defense and a banged up Giants secondary. What’s also hurting is that he hasn’t been able to pad his fantasy stats with rushing touchdowns, having failed to find the end zone on the ground in 2011 after having nine rushing touchdowns in 12 games last year.
Running Backs
Moving Up
 Ryan Mathews is taking over the Chargers backfield. Ryan Mathews, Chargers
It sure looked like a boy became a man this week as Mathews ran all over the Chiefs defense. With Mathews adding short yardage situations and receiving chores to his regular workload, he had his finest day as a pro, rushing for 98 yards and a pair of scores and catching four passes for 51 yards. Mike Tolbert played strictly as a backup and the question is whether that is his new role or whether his snaps were limited as a result of a calf injury. Given Mathews performance and Tolbert’s lackluster start to the season (2.6 yards per carry), look for Mathews to get a much bigger workload going forward.
LaDainian Tomlinson, Jets
Do you get the feeling the light’s never going to go on for Shonn Greene? Despite facing some mediocre run defenses (Cowboys, Jaguars, Raiders), he is averaging just 3.3 yards per carry on 41 rushes for 134 yards and a score. Meanwhile, Tomlinson is chipping in on passing downs and looking like he did over the early part of 2010. At this point, he has 30.9 fantasy points to 25.4 for Greene. If you buy the theory that the Jets aren’t going to be blowing anybody out, then LT should be getting a fair amount of work. He’s a decent flex option and that’s a step up from what was expected in the preseason.
Joseph Addai, Colts
It’s renaissance week on Moving Up, Moving Down. Next we present Joseph Addai, frequently injured, easily forgotten but highly productive this week against a stingy Steelers run defense. Rookie 4th round pick Delone Carter had just four touches while Addai carried the rock 17 times for 86 yards and a score. That’s impressive production against Pittsburgh. Maybe, just maybe the Colts have figured out that running the ball is preferable to having an aging Kerry Collins or an inexperienced Curtis Painter chucking it.
Kendall Hunter, 49ers
If there were any lingering doubts as to who Frank Gore’s handcuff was, they were answered this week when he went out with a right ankle sprain. Hunter stepped in and looked decent, gaining 26 yards on nine carries including a game winning seven-yard touchdown. Hunter had a solid training camp to wrestle the backup job away from Anthony Dixon and figures to get the start next week if Gore can’t go. That game is on the road against an Eagles run defense that looks absolutely horrible and is ranked 30th in the league. That makes Hunter worthy of a start if Gore is out.
Alfonso Smith, Cardinals
LaRod Stephens-Howling was supposed to Beanie Wells backup and then Chester Taylor was signed and he was supposed to be Wells’ backup. So much for that. With Wells out this week against the Seahawks, Smith stepped in and ran for 54 yards on 17 carries and caught three passes for 21 yards. Meanwhile, Taylor looked washed up, gaining just 20 yards on 8 carries while catching one pass for 12 yards. You can hardly say that Smith looked great but what you can say is that Beanie is one of the best in the league at finding a way out of the line up. This time, it was a hamstring and we all know how tricky they can be.
Moving Down
Chris Johnson, Titans
I gave him three weeks and it turns out that was one week too many. Against a Broncos run defense that has struggled since, oh say, the Karl Mecklenburg days, Johnson was abysmal, gaining just 21 yards on 13 carries. And you can’t blame the Titans passing attack for allowing opposing defenses to drop eight and nine man fronts on rushing downs since Matt Hasselbeck is looking like he’s 28, not 36. In fact, the passing game helped pad Johnson’s fantasy stats as he caught four passes for 54 yards. Expect better days ahead but maybe those days are further off than was expected after his lengthy holdout.
Tim Hightower, Redskins
I don’t own Hightower now, I never have and I never will. Why? He’s just not that good. If there’s a poster boy for Sell High, he is it. The Redskins turned up the O in the preseason and Hightower looked great. Then the season opened and with opposing defenses not going plan vanilla, Hightower’s true colors begin to show. This week against Dallas, he managed just 41 yards on 14 carries but his fantasy performance was saved with a touchdown pass at the goal line. For the season, he is averaging 3.5 yards per carry and the odds of head coach Mike Shanahan sticking with that kind of production with dynamic rookie 4th round pick Roy Helu and Ryan Torain (4.5 yards per carry in the same offense last season) in reserve are pretty low.
Rashard Mendenhall, Steelers
Of all the running backs generally ranked in the top ten, Mendenhall generally been the one the most likely not to give his fantasy owners the warm fuzzies. Sure, he plays in a Steelers offense determined to get him the ball but their offensive line has had their issues over the past couple of season and this year is shaping up to be no different. The red lights should be flashing when a player of Mendenhall’s caliber can only manage 37 yards on 18 carries against a Colts run defense that is amongst the smallest in the league in the front seven. For the season, Mendenhall has is averaging a paltry 3.0 yards per carry with 148 yards on 49 carries despite two of those games being against the Colts and Seahawks. It’s one thing to get shut down by the Ravens (as happened in Week 1), it’s quite another to get shut down by these teams.
James Starks, Packers
Can you say yo-yo? Starks was Moving Up two weeks straight but this week, he’s moving down courtesy of a disheartening 11 carry, five yard performance against the Bears coupled with Ryan Grant’s 17 carry, 92 yard outing. With Grant questionable this week with a bruised kidney, Starks figures to get another shot against a suspect Denver run defense and he needs to make the most of it.
Wide Receivers
Moving Up
Torrey Smith, Ravens
Well, if Smith isn’t the top wide receiver Moving Up, then my credibility goes out the window (would only need to be one of those small basement windows). Smith saw one target over the Ravens first two games but got an opportunity this week with Lee Evans out of the line up and absolutely lit up the Rams secondary by catching five of his nine targets for 152 yards and three touchdowns. Smith did it with pure speed, blowing past Rams defenders repeatedly (quarterback Joe Flacco missed him an open deep route in the end zone). While Smith looked great and may have Wally Pipped Evans, it’s worth noting that most of his yardage came against Rams reserve cornerback Justin King, who was starting in place Ron Bartell, and 2nd year safety Darian Stewart who was making his first career start.
Nate Washington, Titans
Kenny Britt was Moving Up last week and it’s Washington’s turn courtesy of Britt’s season ending knee injury. Although Washington has never become the complete player the Titans envisioned when they signed him away from the Steelers after the 2008 season, he assumes the number one wide receiver role in Tennessee with Britt out and his performance over the first three games of the season indicate that he just might be able to perform as one for the first time in his career. Washington has caught 21 of his 27 targets this season (a nifty 77.8% completion percentage) for 258 yards and one touchdown. Consider him a low-end WR2 for the balance of the season.
Victor Cruz, Giants
Let’s be honest. Watching Cruz play, it’s easy to tell that he’s not the most talented wide receiver in the league (my wife remarked that he looked slow on his 74-yard touchdown reception). But there’s a big hole in a Giants offense that is desperate for a player to step up and take the place of the departed Steve Smith and Cruz made a huge claim to that role with his three reception, 110 yard, two touchdown performance this week. In addition to the long touchdown pass, Cruz outfought Eagles cornerback Nnamdi Asomugha (you may have heard of him) for a 28-yard touchdown reception. More recommended for PPR leagues and those that employ a flex position but still worth adding in all formats considering Mario Manningham’s injury situation and history of inconsistent performances.
Michael Jenkins, Vikings
Honestly, this is as lukewarm an endorsement as you may ever see in Moving Up. He’s clearly not the Vikings most talented wide receiver but he seems to be the one who plays the most snaps. If you’ve given up on Bernard Berrian (and you should since the Vikings surely will once they see he has caught one of his ten targets), then Jenkins is the go to own outside of Harvin. Or maybe he’s the Vikings receiver to own since he has 20.3 fantasy points and Harvin has 20.4. He can certainly be had for less than it would cost to trade for Harvin. Sometimes it pays to look through the bargain bins.
Dane Sanzenbacher, Bears
Seven targets and a touchdown in each of his last two games. Let’s face it – Roy Williams isn’t the answer (no receptions on four targets this week with a drop), and they demoted Johnny Knox for Williams. Devin Hester runs screen and flys and Earl Bennett was out this week with a chest injury. For larger leagues only.
Moving Down
DeSean Jackson, Eagles
Jackson has put up decidedly mediocre numbers over the past two weeks after having a solid Week 1 outing against the Rams with six receptions for 102 yards and a touchdown. After watching Torrey Smith light up St. Louis, we’ll put an asterisk beside that one. The Falcons and Giants both gave Jackson a healthy dose of double coverage, limiting him to two receptions in each game and 51 total receiving yards. The blue print is out there. Jackson is clearly talented enough to beat double coverage but the odds of that happening with either an injured Vick or Mike Kafka under center are slim.
Mike Thomas, Jaguars
Should wide receivers who put up 11.5 fantasy points be Moving Down? In this case, you betcha. Thomas has some positives being the lead wide receiver on a team that figures to be behind early and often and he’s currently 8th in the league in targets with 29. However, he’s turned those targets into just 139 yards so at some point, the Jaguars are going to start dishing those out to somebody else. Amongst the top 30 wide receivers in targets, Thomas has the fewest yards, behind only Mike Williams of Tampa Bay who has 89 yards on 22 targets.
Bernard Berrian, Vikings
As noted above, one reception in ten targets doesn’t get you much of a spot in the game plan.
Tight Ends
Moving Up
Owen Daniels, Texans
Admit it. You thought that was a typo and it was supposed to say James Casey. This is why it’s important to watch the games. While Casey had the third highest point total amongst tight ends with five receptions for 126 yards and a touchdown and 11 yards rushing on one carry, 62 of his receiving yards came on a blown coverage and the rushing yards were also a gift as the Saints were clearly not expecting him to get the ball. Basically, the Texans did a wonderful job of surprising the Saints by giving a healthy number of touches to Casey and that only works once. More exciting was seeing Daniels get nine targets and catching five of those for 76 yards and a touchdown. Wide receivers Kevin Walter and Jacoby Jones are AWOL in the passing game (five combined targets this week although Walters scored on a fluke play) and that makes Daniels an enticing tight end to have.
Moving Down
Kellen Winslow, Bucs
A knee injury may have slowed Winslow this week and helped cause a 2 for 20 day but the bottom line is that the Bucs passing attack has been woeful and Winslow has not been able to find the end zone or make any big plays. For the season, he has just 12 receptions for 130 yards on 20 targets and there’s a disturbing trend developing. Winslow hasn’t had double-digit targets since Week 7 of last season and since that game he is averaging just 5.6 targets per game. Sell now.
By: Aaron Williams — @ 9:58 am
Welcome to Week 3 of Tuesday Morning Buzz! The NFL once again delivered with an absolute fireworks show of a weekend. We’ve got a lot to talk about, so let’s jump right in.
Patkowskis – Bills
This win can be attributed mostly to the many Tom Brady picks, which were mostly the fault of the Patriots and not indicative of a great Buffalo secondary. Even so, how ‘bout them Buffalo Bills? They looked great in the second half of this game, and yours truly has been touting Fitzpatrick and Stevie Johnson since last year. It seems that many forgot how easily the Bills lit up the scoreboard in 2010. Now, I don’t believe the Bills will maintain the lead of the AFC East, and I think it will be extremely hard for them to make the playoffs in this division, but they are quickly becoming this year’s Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
As they will likely do all season long, the Patriots continued their Kowski love on Sunday (despite releasing the other Gronkowski brother earlier in the week). Unless it’s the Patriot’s D/ST, I’m not flinching on any of the ownables. I’m good with any of the Patriots’ value right where they were drafted, and one loss to an emotional Buffalo team at home is not enough to scare me away.
Panthers – Jaguars
Cam Newton may have crashed back to fantasy earth, but Maurice Jones-Drew continues to simmer in fantasy hell. I mean, overall, is there a worse team in the league than the Jacksonville Jaguars? Want to bring up the Kansas City Chiefs? I would wager that the Chiefs would beat the Jaguars on a neutral field by a field goal—even with the stunning Jamaal Charles on IR. Jacksonville fans are hoping Blaine Gabbert gets comfortable quickly and makes the Jags an NFL team again.
49ers – Bengals
This game is tough to comment on. It was very boring and uneventful. To be honest, the only fantasy-draftable position I want from either of these teams is the San Francisco D/ST. Even then, it’s only a matchup play. As I always say, I want fantasy players on teams with their arrow pointing up. I’d rather have someone from the Panthers, Bills, Cardinals, or Raiders than any Bengal or 49er. That includes even A.J. Green, despite his early success as a rookie.
Dolphins – Browns
During the lockout, I made a bet that Miami would be the worst team in the NFL by season’s end. They had been playing with a chip on their shoulder and proving me wrong before this week. Against Cleveland, however, the Dolphins looked exactly as I thought they would coming into the season. A one-point loss to the putrid Browns is exactly how a team with a bad attitude and a low talent level performs. The Dolphins have changed my mind somewhat, but they need to keep Marshall involved in every play if they want to get even six wins this year.
As for the Browns, I have no faith in any of these guys. In a standard league, I can’t imagine starting any of them. Maybe I’d suffer if I left Peyton Hillis on my bench, but the Browns are simply the stalest team in the NFL. I sure hope those draft picks play better than Julio Jones.
 Calvin Johnson is fantastic. Lions – Vikings
Is it possible that Calvin Johnson is even more fantastic than Andre Johnson? I had never been able to nab Megatron in a fantasy draft until this year, and he has rewarded me by picking up points by the truckload. All your Lions are firing on all cylinders right now, but you have to watch out for teams that are making their money in consecutive fourth-quarter comeback wins. Truly good teams don’t always have to come back in the fourth quarter to win.
The Vikings, on the other hand, are in the habit of starting quick then wearing out. I don’t want to be anywhere near a Viking not named Adrian Peterson. Minnesota is also the recipient of my favorite hyper-specific stat of the week, “The first team to lose the first three games of the season after leading by double digits at halftime in each consecutive game.” That type of stat cannot continue to persist. My money is on the Vikings breaking both sides of that stat this week by beating the Chiefs in a close one.
The Color Silver
On Sunday, the Lions had the ball with 1:11 left in the fourth quarter. They start at their own 20 yard line in the shotgun formation, and they’re ready to let Stafford win them a football game. Unfortunately, Jeff Backus commits two silly false starts back to back. It’s awfully hard to let Stafford throw winning passes when you can’t hike the ball without moving back five yards. On their third attempt at the first down, now first and 20, Stafford gets sacked. After giving up and calling two conservative runs, the Lions have now successfully forced their own punt. The Lions are a great offense, but they have to get out of their own way if they really want to be seen as a contender.
It seems to me that there is a tie between the color silver and silly penalties. For example, the Raiders are nearly always among the most penalized teams. This year silver has particularly dominated the total penalties category with the Raiders (1), Panthers (8), Patriots (10), and Lions (15) all in the top 15. Heading into Monday night, the Cowboys are 25th overall, but I have no doubt they will go back to their old ways soon enough.
Texans – Saints
It is ok to settle for a field goal sometimes. Especially if you have a fantastic kicker or are capitalizing on a turnover, I have no problem with being forced to take the occasional field goal. However, anytime your red zone trips result in more field goals than touchdowns, especially against a searing-hot offense like the Saints, you are asking to lose. In Week 1, the Saints lost a close one by kicking field goals while the Packers scored touchdowns. This week, the Texans did the kicking and lost in an eerily similar game.
The Saints played exactly as they were expected to, and all of those who passed on Antonio Gates and Dallas Clark to pick Jimmy Graham in the 12th round are being rewarded. After the freak-accident touchdown that Kevin Walter scored, I wrote in my notebook “I wonder how many players will pick up Kevin Walter this week.” My next note? “Wow! I wonder how many players will pick up Lance Moore this week!”
As for the Texans, between the 20s they looked as good as any elite QB-WR combo can look. Tight end Owen Daniels, much ignored in the offseason, also proved why he deserves to be in your lineup each week. They lacked execution in the red zone, but just as the Saints couldn’t be too upset with a close loss to the Packers at Lambeau, the Texans can’t be too worked up about this loss. Start your Texans and Saints no matter the matchup each week.
Eagles – Giants
So much for the defense taking the Eagles to the Superbowl. I, along with everyone else, believe that the Eagles have a great offense that can take them deep in the playoffs if Vick can stay upright. However, I recall many colleagues who were certain that the free agency acquisitions of this team cemented them in the Superbowl. Three weeks in, they were allowing Eli Manning to put up some of his best single-game passing numbers fresh off a disgusting performance against a St. Louis defense that was simultaneously getting swiss-cheesed by Joe Flacco.
We now know that Michael Vick had a contusion in his non-throwing hand and may or may not play next Sunday. However, the original understanding was that his hand was fractured. When this was the report, Vick was sitting on the sidelines with what looked like a full inch of swelling on top of his knuckles. The report from the Eagles was that Vick was “doubtful to return after breaking hand.” This doubtful tag seemed absurd, as there appeared to be no way he would re-enter the game. Has anyone ever returned after being declared doubtful in the third quarter? Was this an attempt at subterfuge by the coaching staff? Let me know your thoughts in the comments section below.
Broncos – Titans
The Broncos, a la the Seahawks and the Browns, are pretty lackluster right now. This isn’t even a discussion on W-L records but just on overall play, demeanor, and star power. It appears to only be a matter of time now before Tebow is put in to quell the cries of the fanbase in Denver. The bigger story, however, is how Orton’s contract situation will be handled. He is in the final year of his deal, and if the Broncos don’t get some wins, or at least some encouraging stats, they won’t bring him back. Just when you thought the quarterback situation in Mile High couldn’t get any muddier…
Jets – Raiders
Is it possible that Al Davis was actually making genius moves all this time that we’ve been accusing him of making draft selections from beyond the dead? I mean, JaMarcus Russell failed, but the rest of the Raiders are looking pretty good right now as Darren McFadden leads the league in rushing thanks to a great team effort.
The Jets are really very similar to the Raiders in makeup. They both have game-managing quarterbacks who can let their playmakers win the game. The Jets have a better defense, but I’m sure they would love to have a running back like Run DMC in their backfield. Surprisingly, LT is not getting too much attention despite his impressive stats. I don’t think he can keep it up, just as he couldn’t last year, but I am surprised there isn’t more hubbub about him this week.
Chiefs – Chargers
I was asked this week if I would select the Chargers at home by a margin of 14.5 in a Pick ‘Ems game. I advised, “The Chiefs have allowed 40+ points in both games this year and have struggled to get to double digits in both games. However, it’s early and the Chargers are silly enough to keep this one close. I’ll take the Chiefs.” Sure enough, the Chargers made the Chiefs look respectable and kept this one close to the end. In fantasy, however, the Chargers have been performing well as a team in comparison to their recent slow-start years.
As for the Chiefs, you probably have to start Bowe if you drafted him, but otherwise there isn’t a single player on this team that deserves to be on your roster. As is apparently becoming my motto this season, you’re better off taking David Nelson, the big man out of Buffalo, than Dexter McCluster of the Chiefs. McCluster is more talented, but his team and offense aren’t able to exploit his ability.
Ravens – Rams
This week, I put Joe Flacco on my bench with the logic that Ryan Fitzpatrick was likely to be involved in a shootout and that the Rams had previously held Eli Manning and Michael Vick to unrealistically low point totals. At the end of the first slate of games, I felt pretty good about my decision. However, Flacco came in and threw so effectively he almost doubled Fitzpatrick’s stats. Torrey Smith should be the top waiver-wire pickup this week, though keep in mind that his best game of the season is already in the books. The Ravens appear to be a little feast-or-famine, but Smith in good matchups could be a great flex play.
As for the Rams, they’ve been everything their detractors imagined. In a season where the Lions and Bills appear to be contenders for their divisions, the Rams are fourth in the weakest division in football. I love Sam Bradford, and I think these Rams will be a great football team, but watch for them to add another receiver or two before Bradford and company put up the numbers needed to make them draftable.
Packers – Bears
Green Bay won this game 27-17 because of the ineffectiveness of the Bears’ offense. The Packers threw it up and down the field in short passes, as per the blueprint drawn up by the Saints last week. However, at different intervals, they would decide to simply run up the middle three times into a stout Bears D-line and get stuffed. I understand staying balanced and I wholeheartedly agree. But if you are blowing up the short passing game, you don’t then elect to get stuffed at the line of scrimmage on three consecutive downs and expect to have the game in hand. As for the run game itself, Grant by far had the better day, but that was because of the defensive play of the Bears and had little to do with the runners. This is still a 50/50 split.
Luckily for the Packers, Cutler and the Bears’ passing attack were determined to keep themselves out of the game. Cutler’s playmaking ability was as absent in this game as he is from that Bears’ Play 60 commercial. Speaking of that, one of my favorite things about that commercial is how unrecognizable the Chicago players are. Where are the stars? Do you think they even asked Cutler? The kids probably would’ve booed the poor guy off the bus after this game!
Here’s a stat line for you: In the third quarter, Cutler went 2-10 for 19 yards. One of those two completions was to Matt Forte who ran it out for nine yards. Those numbers are JaMarcus Russell-esque. I really don’t mean to hate on Cutler, I hope he does well, and I have faith that he can someday turn his game around and be successful. For better or worse, though, he is always going to be the measure of his team.
Cardinals – Seahawks
There is nothing to be gleaned from this performance. Both teams are playing poorly this year, and both proved that even against another bad team they’re still not good. Larry Fitzgerald and Kevin Kolb (by virtue of Larry Fitzgerald), are the only players on either team I want to own in fantasy leagues this year.
Falcons – Buccaneers
The Falcons and Buccaneers played an all-guts-no-glory football game in the trenches in Tampa on Sunday. Both of these teams are heavy run-first offenses with great quarterbacks and receivers in relief. But this Sunday, it was the youth of the Buccaneers’ offense that prevailed. When this matchup is played in Atlanta, it will likely be the Falcons’ experience and big-play potential that will win it. When the Falcons play at home, don’t worry about your starters. However, when they’re on the road, you might have to hold your breath a little bit.
Steelers – Colts
With 15 seconds remaining in the first quarter, I wrote in my notebook, “The Colts are WINNING!” Their much-maligned defense looked for real, with something to prove. I wonder if they can keep it up after relishing in their glory this week.
As for the Steelers, they looked disorganized and hurt for the second time in three weeks. I’m willing to write off the Week 1 loss as their being in the way of a raring-to-go Ravens team. In Week 2, they shut out a miserable Seahawks team that had to travel multiple time zones to Pittsburgh. Now, this week, the Steelers eked out a win against a Colts team that is missing their ad hoc head coach and play caller. All teams have low and high points of the season, but if the Steelers have another bad game in proximity to these two, they’re really going to lose a lot of steam.
On a side note, how did Indy win that Superbowl bid? They had to show a live landing at the airport just because there is nothing else there!
Redskins – Cowboys
Unlike going up against the Saints or Packers, if you kick only field goals against the Washington Redskins, you may just come out with a victory. A very banged-up and disorganized Cowboys team (four, count ‘em, four bad snaps!) meandered toward the end zone and made six of seven field goals for the win.
I’m not thrilled about the Dallas matchup versus Detroit next week, but then the Cowboys have a bye week of which they are in dire need. Perhaps after the bye, if everyone is healthy, we’ll see a great shootout in New England and the Cowboys will be able reward their patient owners with some fantasy greatness. For Redskins owners, you get the Rams next week. Let’s hope Grossman can do his best Joe Flacco impression and win your week for you.
$#^! Chris Collinsworth Says
Chris proved once again why he makes the big bucks on Sunday evening. He finds great ways to send intelligent observations, usually his own, into goofy and sometimes awkward analysis. I can’t imagine John Madden exclaiming, after he realizes that Robert Mathis is being asked to circle to the opposite end of the line before rushing , “Yeah, but this is idiotic here!” And it was idiotic! I’m just not sure that’s how I would’ve presented the information. I wrote in my notebook, “Chris Collinsworth is the Charles Barkley of NFL commentary.”
Bonus: Keyshawn Johnson took a hint from Chris and gave this stunning analysis on the Redskins’ offense: “Let’s not get carried away. There’s a reason he’s Rex Grossman.”
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