Passing
Game Thoughts: A rib injury to starter Jay Cutler opened
the door for Matt Moore, a favorite backup to some in the fantasy
community, to take over the starting role in the interim as the
Dolphins travel to take on the Ravens on Thursday Night Football.
Moore breathed some life into the stagnant Dolphins offense with
188 yards passing and two touchdowns in a come-from-behind win
at home against the Jets.
Kenny Stills and Jarvis Landry were the primary beneficiaries
to Moore taking over the starting role, with the two wideouts
combining for 178 yards and three scores on 20 targets. Stills’
recent increase in targets and touchdown production is directly
connected to DeVante Parker missing the last two games with an
ankle injury. Parker is listed as questionable for Thursday’s
game and was unable to practice on Monday, but does look likely
to start on Thursday.
Baltimore, the fourth-most difficult pass defense regarding points
allowed per game to opposing quarterbacks, presents a more difficult
challenge for Moore than the Jets offered Week 7. Aside from the
outlying four-touchdown performance by Blake Bortles in London,
the Ravens have not allowed an opposing quarterback to throw for
more than one passing touchdown in a game. The stellar performance
by the Ravens defense has not equated to wins, as Joe Flacco and
the floundering Baltimore offense has been unable to keep the
Ravens in games.
Three of the five starting offensive linemen for the Dolphins
were limited or did not participate in practice on Monday, headlined
by right tackle Laremy Tunsil who missed practice with a knee
injury. Defensively for Baltimore, starting cornerback Jimmy Smith
missed Monday’s practice as he continues to deal with a
knee injury and safety Eric Weddle was limited due to an ankle
ailment. Both players are expected to play on Thursday.
BAL FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.29
BAL FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.5
BAL FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.30
BAL FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.4
Running Game Thoughts: To say that
Jay Ajayi has been a bust through the first half of the fantasy
season would be an understatement. Despite ranking sixth in attempts
(125), Ajayi ranks 27th in fantasy points per game (8.2) and has
yet to find the end zone. The former Boise State Bronco has been
nursing a sore left knee all season and was limited in practice
on Monday with toe, knee, and elbow issues.
If there were ever a game for Ajayi to break out, it would be
against the Ravens, a team that ranks fifth in fantasy points
allowed to running backs. Five separate RB’s have managed
to post double-digit performances against Baltimore this year,
including Latavius Murray, who rushed for 113 yards and a score
on 18 carries last week in Minnesota.
The return of defensive lineman Brandon Williams, one of the
better run-stopping D-lineman in the league, would shore up a
leaky Ravens run defense. That thought did not come to fruition,
as the Ravens allowed 169 yards on 33 carries to Murray and Jerick
McKinnon.
One factor that could derail an Ajayi breakout game is the health
of the Dolphins offensive line that has three players banged up
with various injuries. If the short week does not allow center
Mike Pouncey or left tackle Laremy Tunsil to play, Ajayi could
be in for another disappointing week.
Passing
Game Thoughts: In a game that pits the two worst passing
offenses in the NFL in terms of total yards per game, Joe Flacco
ranks 28th in passing yards, and his 70.0 passer rating is second-worst
only two rookie DeShone Kizer (47.8). Injuries to critical members
of the offensive line and receiving corps have greatly limited
the effectiveness of the Baltimore passing game, while poor play
an inaccuracy by Flacco has also attributed to a disappointing
2017 for the Ravens.
On a positive note for Flacco and the passing game, starting
wide receivers Jeremy Maclin and Mike Wallace participated in
team drills on Tuesday and look primed to play against the Dolphins
but check the inactive list prior to gametime. Starting wide receivers
have found mixed results this season against Baltimore, with five
players posting double-digit games, highlighted by Michael Thomas’
8/39/1 line Week 4.
In a surprising move, veteran cornerback Byron Maxwell was released
by Miami on Monday after a disappointing two years with the team
after signing six-year, $63 million contract in 2015. The former
Seattle Seahawk cornerback who used the team’s Super Bowl
victory as a springboard to a lucrative contract played poorly
in his stint with the Dolphins before losing his starting job
to rookie Cordea Tankersley.
Running back Buck Allen continues to be the primary pass-catching
option out of the backfield, with a team-high eight catches on
11 targets in Sunday’s loss to the Vikings. At a mere 3.6
yard per reception and no touchdowns, his value last week and
this week resides mostly in PPR formats.
Even in a bye-nado week where six teams are on a break, there
are numerous streaming quarterback plays more attractive than
Joe Flacco. With zero 300-yard or three touchdown games on his
2017 resume and zero touchdowns in three of seven contests, Flacco
does not present a high floor or a high ceiling for fantasy owners.
MIA FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.18
MIA FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.23
MIA FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.18
MIA FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.11
Running Game Thoughts: The Irish-Dancing fueled emergence of
Alex Collins into a viable NFL running back is a great story.
A second-year back cast off from Seattle finds himself in a starting
role after injuries and suspensions hit the incumbent starting
corps. At just under six yards per carry, Collins has been one
of the more efficient running backs in the NFL, but the fact that
he has yet to score a touchdown this season makes him a low-end
No.2 RB or flex play.
Collins may find it challenging to notch his first touchdown
this week against a Dolphins team that has been stout against
the run after giving up 13.8 points Week 1 to Melvin Gordon. No
running back has topped more than 68 yards against the Phins and
only Tevin Coleman has managed to score a rushing TD against the
Miami defense since Week 3.
Of the two backs, Buck Allen has the clearer path to fantasy
relevance as the pass-catching option for Flacco. Although he
typically scores the majority of his points in the second half
of games in which the Ravens are ahead, Allen managed to post
his eight catches last week when the Ravens were trailing the
Vikings.
The unpredictable nature of Thursday Night games and the difficulties
the short week of preparation presents makes all offensive players
in the game questionable starts. With two of the league’s
worst offenses taking on each other on a short week, one could
argue to two best fantasy options are the defensive units for
these two teams.
Passing
Game Thoughts: The Vikings received a double-bonus from
the scheduling committee this season with one of their “road”
games taking place on a neutral field in Twickenham, England as
part of the NFL’s international series. Not only do the
Vikings get the benefit of not playing an actual road game this
week, but they also get to play against the hapless Browns who
continue to be the laughing stock of the league.
The three London games played in 2017 have been dominated by
teams with solid defensive units going against struggling offenses.
That narrative looks to be in play once again this week as the
Vikings’ 10th-ranked defense should have little trouble
shutting down rookie DeShone Kizer and the 21st-ranked Browns
offense.
Offensively for the Vikings, quarterback Case Keenum will start
his fifth game of the season in reserve of injured Sam Bradford
and Teddy Bridgewater. Keenum has been serviceable from a real-life
football perspective, leading the Vikings to wins over Chicago,
Green Bay, Baltimore, and Tampa Bay, but his 15.4 fantasy points
per game average places him outside the realm of a trustworthy
fantasy option as the 29th ranked QB.
But with six teams on bye and many owners scouring the waiver
wire for a fill-in play, Keenum could be an option as the Browns
struggle defensively against the pass (11th-most points to opposing
quarterbacks). Marcus Mariota is the only opposing quarterback
this season to not post at least 17 fantasy points against the
Browns, with Jacoby Brissett and Andy Dalton each scoring over
30 points against Cleveland.
The possible return of No.1 wideout Stefon Diggs from a groin
injury would be an added bonus for Keenum and the Viking passing
offense. Diggs and Keenum connected on eight passes for 173 yards
and two scores against the Bucs Week 3 in what turned out to be
the best game of Keenum’s five-year NFL career. Head coach
Mike Zimmer told reporters on Wednesday that Diggs will make the
trip to London with the team - a positive sign that Diggs may
return to the field in a very attractive matchup against Cleveland.
Diggs was also a full participant in Thursday’s practice.
A matchup preview of the Browns would not be complete without
the prerequisite recommendation of starting tight ends against
Cleveland. Only the Giants have allowed more points this season
to the position than Cleveland and no team over the past two seasons
has given up more receiving touchdowns to opposing tight ends.
Needless to say that Kyle Rudolph is a nice option this week,
despite the fact that Rudolph and Keenum have yet to find a rapport
this year.
CLE FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.11
CLE FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.26
CLE FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.26
CLE FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.3
Running Game Thoughts: It took a bit of research to find one
thing that the Browns have done well this season as a team. Their
offense ranks in the bottom half of the league, DeShone Kizer
is dead last in quarterback rating, Isaiah Crowell has been a
bust despite promises from head coach Hue Jackson about increasing
his usage, and the Browns pass defense is just behind New England
for most passing TDs allowed on the year.
The one thing that Browns can do is shut down the run game on
defense, as evident by the fact that they ranked 26th in fantasy
points allowed to opposing RBs. Big name running backs like Le’Veon
Bell, Lamar Miller, DeMarco Murray, and Jeremy Hill (I kid) have
failed to deliver solid performances against this unit. In fact,
only the venerable Frank Gore has managed to score a rushing touchdown
against the Browns (despite just 57 yards on 25 carries).
Both Jerick McKinnon and Latavius Murray are viable fantasy starts
this week, as McKinnon will be active in the passing game and
a likely positive game script fueled by a lopsided first half
will give Murray a chance to rack up closing stats as the Vikings
run out the clock in the second half. But expectations on Murray
should be tempered somewhat due to the Browns proficiency at stopping
big bruising backs.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Head coach Hue Jackson continues to spin
the QB roulette wheel in Cleveland, with rookie DeShone Kizer
benched last week after struggling to score an offensive touchdown
against Tennessee. Cody Kessler replaced Kizer and was equally
ineffective and inefficient, and Jackson has once again decided
to return to Kizer this week in London.
It may surprise some to learn that the combination of Kizer,
Kessler, and Kevin Hogan have combined for 139.8 fantasy points
on the season, which is 13th-most in the league through seven
weeks. The Browns trio of passers have scored more points than
Ben Roethlisberger, Eli Manning, Philip Rivers, and of course
Joe Flacco.
Despite their combined fantasy success in the midst of a season
to forget, none of them are worthy of a start this week in any
format. The Vikings allow the 5th-fewest points to opposing quarterbacks,
and no QB has thrown for more than two touchdowns. Jameis Winston’s
24.8 points in Week 3 are the most scored against Zimmer’s
defensive unit this year, which included three interceptions in
a 34-17 blowout loss for the Bucs.
The defensive unit for the Vikings enters the game reasonably
healthy with cornerbacks Tramaine Brock and Mackenzie Alexander
limited with hamstring and hip ailments, while defensive end Stephen
Weatherly was unable to practice Wednesday due to a knee injury.
MIN FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.28
MIN FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.31
MIN FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.16
MIN FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.17
Running Game Thoughts: The dreadful 2017 season for early-round
bust Isaiah Crowell continued last week with a horrendous 35-yard
performance on 17 carries. In somewhat of a surprising turn of
events, Crow did salvage his week somewhat for PPR owners with
four catches for 36 yards on six targets.
Duke Johnson continues to be the more efficient running back
and most effective passing weapon with 26 yards on seven carries
and 45 yards on six receptions. Both running backs will find it
difficult this week against the Vikings, a unit that has allowed
the second-fewest points this season. Only Ameer Abdullah has
managed to score a rushing touchdown against the Vikings run defense
and only two backs on 185 combined touches have managed to top
10 fantasy points in a game.
If forced to choose between the two, Johnson continues to make
more sense as he is a skilled pass catcher who can thrive in negative
game scripts. Crowell’s value is capped as an early-down
back dependent on touchdowns, something he has failed to achieve
in 2017.
Passing
Game Thoughts: After a 27-0 blowout loss at home to the
Jaguars last week, the Colts face another tough opponent as they
travel to Cincinnati to take on the Bengals. The success of any
passing game starts with protection and the ability of the offensive
line to provide enough time for the quarterback to examine the
defense and make an accurate throw. This basic fundamental of
football has escaped the 2017 Colts, a team that has allowed the
most quarterback sacks this season (a whopping 4.0 per game).
Second-year quarterback Jacoby Brissett has not been afforded
enough time to make plays in the passing game, and all skill position
players on the Colts have suffered as a result.
Brissett looks poised for another Sunday of scrambling for his
life against a Bengals defense that is tied for fifth in quarterback
sacks on the season, led by linebacker Carl Lawson with 3.5. The
Bengals have been stout this season against the pass (26th overall
in points allowed), with only Aaron Rodgers scoring more than
20 points in a game this season.
The big play ability of T.Y. Hilton to score from anywhere on
the field and the hefty volume of targets for tight end Jack Doyle
make both players viable starters, but expectations should be
tempered for both players. Injuries to cornerbacks Darqueze Dennard
and Adam Jones would bump up the projections for Hilton if either
player is unable to play.
Knee and pelvis injuries to starting center Ryan Kelly is something
to keep an eye on as we approach Sunday, as an absence of Kelly
in this matchup would make an already weak offensive line worse.
If for some reason the Bengal defensive unit is available in your
league, I highly recommend picking them up and starting them against
the Colts.
CIN FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.26
CIN FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.24
CIN FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.24
CIN FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.29
Running Game Thoughts: The 25th-ranked offensive line in 2016
according to ProFootballFocus is once again one of the worst in
the league in both run blocking and pass protection. The Colts
enter Week 8 ranked 22nd in fantasy points scored by running backs,
with Frank Gore, Marlon Mack, and Robert Turbin (IR with an elbow
injury) combined for 108 fantasy points on 191 touches.
The injury to Turbin and pedestrian 3.4 YPC for Gore will likely
open the door for rookie Mack to earn more touches in the second
half of the season. Mack rushed for 26 yards on five carries while
adding four receptions for 40 yards in last week’s 27-0
blowout loss to the Jaguars. With a similar trailing from behind
game script likely in the cards for the Colts, Mack could be an
excellent flex option against the Bengals.
Cincinnati is stout against the run, and only Terrance West has
managed to score a rushing touchdown against the Bengals rush
defense, making Gore a risky option considering his value is linked
to rushing TDs. Mack, on the other hand, could excel in the passing
game, as three running backs have logged nine or more targets
out of the backfield vs. Cincy in 2017, highlighted by Duke Johnson’s
nine catch game in Week 4.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Andy Dalton overcame a dreadful five-turnover
game Week 1 against the Ravens and a touchdown drought that lasted
two games to once again become a viable fantasy quarterback. The
Red Rifle took advantage of bad defenses in weeks three and four,
posting 18.4 and 33.2 points respectively against Green Bay and
Cleveland.
The Colts have a defense that is even worse than the two teams
Dalton beat up on for 51 combined fantasy points, making him an
excellent play this week, along with wideout A.J. Green. Green’s
12.1 fantasy points per game places him seventh among wide receivers,
just ahead of Mike Evans and Michael Crabtree. Green ranks just
inside the top twelve in targets this season (57), and his 545
receiving yards is second only to Pittsburgh’s Antonio Brown.
Needless to say, Green is a great start this week and should surpass
his 12.1 average points per game, with a negative game script
caused by defensive touchdowns by the Bengals acting as the one
main threat to a big offensive game for the former Georgia Bulldog.
Owners in need of a bye-week replacement should consider starting
tight end Tyler Kroft against the Colts. Indy has allowed the
ninth-most points to opposing tight ends, including a career-high
seven catches for 81 yards and a score for 49ers rookie George
Kittle in Week 5. Kroft is available in 61% of Yahoo leagues,
despite the fact that he has a top-10 matchup and has scored a
touchdown in two of his last three games.
Brandon LaFell could also be a sneaky play considering the fact
that he has 15 targets in his last two games, for nine catches
and one receiving touchdown. With cornerback Vontae Davis likely
shadowing Green for most of the game, Dalton could use his other
wideout to attack the subpar Colts pass defense.
IND FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.4
IND FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.2
IND FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.5
IND FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.9
Running Game Thoughts: Rookie Joe Mixon looked like the future
stud running back most people anticipated last Sunday against
the Steelers, rising for 48 yards on seven carries, while adding
three catches for 20 yards. A negative game script and a head-scratching
decision my head coach Marvin Jones limited Mixon to a few carries
in the second half and Jones continues to incorporate sloth-like
Jeremy Hill and his 3.2 YPC average.
Mixon shared his displeasure regarding his limited use to reporters
after the game, bringing up the possibility of two contradictory
narratives. Will Lewis see the error in his ways and give the
squeaky wheel rookie more touches, or will a head coach known
for his stubbornness punish Mixon for speaking out by limiting
his workload? Your guess is as good as mine, but if forced to
choose one outcome, I lean toward the former with Mixon having
a great game against a Colts defense that has allowed the second-most
points this season to opposing running backs.
The forgotten man in the Bengal trio backfield is Giovani Bernard.
The veteran third-down and change of pace back has seen his volume
decrease in each of the past four games to the point in which
he is fantasy irrelevant in all formats. Hopefully, Marvin Lewis
will move to a two-back rotation with Mixon working as the first
and second down back, and Bernard handling third and passing down
duties. But until that happens, Bernard should be dropped in all
formats.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Winners of two straight games, including
an impressive victory over the Chiefs on the road at Arrowhead
in Week 6, the Steelers and Ben Roethlisberger face another difficult
challenge this week with the Lions at Ford Field. After a season-high
55 pass attempts against Jacksonville in a lopsided 30-9 loss,
offensive coordinator Todd Haley and head coach Mike Tomlin decided
to focus on the run with Le’Veon Bell, while limiting the
number of passes thrown by Big Ben. Roethlisberger threw 49 passes
combined in the team’s two wins while limiting the number
of interceptions to just one.
Limiting interceptions will once again be essential for the Steelers
as they take on a Lions team that is tied for second in interceptions
forced (9) on the year. Detroit ranks 19th in fantasy points allowed
to opposing quarterbacks, with Matt Ryan and Cam Newton as the
only two opposing QB’s to score more than 18 points in a
game.
The off-field drama surrounding Martavis Bryant and his frustrations
regarding not getting enough passes in the Pittsburgh scheme led
to a demotion of Bryant to the practice squad and subsequent deactivation
this week against Detroit. The absence of Bryant opposite all-pro
Antonio Brown opens the door for rookie JuJu Smith-Schuster to
get more action. The second-round selection from USC had three
touchdowns on the season and 231 yards on just 19 targets. An
increase in usage this week, especially with Antonio Brown shadowed
by Darius Slay, could equate to a big game for Smith-Schuster.
Tight end Jessie James has been missing in action for most of
the season after starting off with a monster two-touchdown game
Week 1 vs. Cleveland. His target share is not large enough to
consider playing him in ten team leagues, but owners dealing with
bye week blues in larger formats may want to consider him a flyer.
Detroit has been susceptible to tight ends (12th most points in
six games) this season, and their ball-hawking secondary tends
to omit coverage on tight ends. Just ask anyone who lucked out
Week 5 when Ed Dickson and Cam Newton torched the Lions for 175
yards. While a huge game like that is not likely, James could
be a sneaky start with touchdown upside.
DET FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.19
DET FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.7
DET FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.14
DET FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.12
Running Game Thoughts: Le’Veon Bell leads as running backs
in carries (169) and targeted (33) this season as the all-pro
running back continues to be the focal point of the Steelers offense.
With 30 or more touches in three of his last four games, it begs
the question if his ridiculously high workload could lead to overuse
and injury.
Regardless of whether or not Tomlin is playing with fire when
it comes to the health of Bell, it would behoove the Steelers
to continue to feed their workhorse this week. The way to beat
the Lions is with the run (7th-most fantasy points allowed to
RB’s), and the Steelers have the blueprint to victory set
up with their last two wins based on limiting Big Ben’s
throws pounding the rock.
The Lions come off the bye reasonably healthy on the defensive
side of the ball with defensive end Ziggy Ansah and linebacker
Paul Worrilow dealing with knee injuries. Both players were limited
in practice on Wednesday but appear to be on track to play. Safety
Glover Quinn was a full participant in practice yesterday as he
deals with a concussion.
Passing
Game Thoughts: The Steelers present a difficult matchup
for Matthew Stafford and the Lions in that the strength of the
Pittsburgh unit is their pass defense, while the Lions’
most effective tool is the passing game. To beat the Steelers,
you need to play solid defense and run the ball. It is an old
school way of playing football, especially by today’s NFL
standards, but it has proven to be the winning formula in 2017.
Quarterback Matthew Stafford faces a difficult task of moving
the ball against a Steelers unit that trails only Jacksonville
in fewest points allowed. Although those stats are somewhat skewed
by the fact that Pittsburgh has only one top-12 quarterback in
Alex Smith, there is no denying the efficiency in which the Steelers
have limited opposing quarterbacks to an average of 172 yards
per game.
In a surprise to many, Golden Tate showed up as a limited participant
in practice on Wednesday, opening the door for a possible early
return from a shoulder injury that was previously thought to keep
Tate on the shelf for a few weeks. Fellow wide receiver and deep
threat Kenny Golladay also managed to get in a limited practice
after missing the last few weeks with a hamstring injury. Tate
still appears to be a long shot to play, while Golladay missed
practice on Thursday suggesting he will be inactive on Sunday.
T.J. Jones and RB Theo Riddick could play a bigger role in the
passing game.
The Steelers are relatively injury-free on the defensive side
of the ball with only defensive end Stephon Tuitt limited with
a back injury. Pittsburgh beat reporter James Wexell reported
via Twitter on Sunday that Tuitt will miss the game.
PIT FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.31
PIT FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.12
PIT FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.32
PIT FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.27
Running Game Thoughts: The Lions enter Week 8 as one of the worst
rushing teams in the league, with 85.6 fantasy points scored in
six games (14.3 FPts/G). The combination of Ameer Abdullah, Theo
Riddick, Zach Zenner, and Dwayne Washington have just two rushing
touchdowns on the season while averaging a pedestrian 3.3 yards
per carry.
The fact that the Lions struggle against the run does not bode
well for the team in terms of x’s & o’s, as the
best way to attack the Steelers is on the ground and not through
the air. Ameer Abdullah has shown some promise this year, but
he has only one game with 20 or more carries and continues to
be limited on the goal line. Theo Riddick is not getting enough
volume in either the passing or ground game, and he has been surprisingly
inefficient when given his limited carries.
Perhaps the Lions will renew their focus on the run, giving Abdullah
at least 20 carries similar to their game plan against Minnesota.
Another option could be for offensive coordinator JimBob Cooter
to use short passes to Abdullah and Riddick as an extension of
the run. Pittsburgh has allowed the seventh-most receptions to
running backs this season, and the Steelers can be beaten on screens.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Last week’s performance against the
Bears was a reminder of Cam Newton’s struggles as a passer
in the NFL and the risks he presents in the fantasy realm. He
is simply not accurate and isn’t padding his weekly fantasy
totals with his legs. He is now 49 for his last 86 passing attempts
with only one passing touchdown and five interceptions. That’s
almost the opposite of his two-game totals for Weeks 4 and 5 this
year. There is a decent fantasy ceiling with Newton but the floor
is awfully low as well. Carolina’s gregarious quarterback
hasn’t had the best numbers against the Bucs in his career
so I’d be hesitant to use him this week on the road. That
being said, Tampa Bay is allowing the second most fantasy points
per game to opposing quarterbacks so there is hope for a rebound
from the entire Carolina passing game in Week 8. Outside of his
tough match up a week ago, Devin Funchess has proven to be more
good than bad over the past month. He and Kelvin Benjamin are
the best bets to find the end zone this week assuming the offense
can cut down on its turnovers. Ed Dickson has played well in relief
of Greg Olsen but he isn’t getting enough targets to be
a difference maker for fantasy managers.
TB FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.2
TB FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.9
TB FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.2
TB FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.19
Running Game Thoughts: Eighty-seven. That is the amount of rushing
yards the Panthers have gained between weeks five and seven. Needless
to say, that is the fewest of any NFL team during the same span
(Denver had more with one less game played). I’ve been pretty
supportive of Jonathan Stewart in recent weeks thinking that things
would turn around but now I’m less confident. What should
be a two-headed nightmare for defenses has been tamed. He isn’t
a lock to see 15 touches each game and he hasn’t seen the
end zone since Week 1’s touchdown reception. The Bucs have
yielded five touchdowns over their past five games and Stewart
scored his last rushing touchdown against Tampa in Week 17. I’m
not starting him over everyone but he is definitely in the flex
conversation. Christian McCaffrey is the X-factor this offense
needs to take off. He poses so many matchup problems that he will
continue to compile solid fantasy totals via the passing attack.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Tampa Bay is averaging more offensive total
yards per game-392.8 to be exact-than anyone not named the Patriots
this season. That result is coming from the league’s second
most pass-friendly play calling with the Bucs passing on nearly
65-percent of its play calls through six games played. So why
is Jameis Winston ranked eleventh in fantasy points scored game
(standard)? His per game averages are being brought down his lousy
Week 6 stat line and his season totals haven only started to catch
up since the team had its bye in Week 1. The truth is that the
defense is been bad and the reins are off Winston. He has a good
shot at adding a fifth 300-yard passing game to his 2017 ledger
this week against the Panthers so get your guys into the lineup.
O. J. Howards two-touchdown effort a week ago has resuscitated
the hype around the rookie tight end. Don’t be fooled, Brate
received more targets in the same game and remains the better
tight end to own as Tampa tries to right the ship following three
straight losses.
CAR FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.25
CAR FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.30
CAR FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.25
CAR FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.23
Running Game Thoughts: Carolina looks like a different team playing
without Luke Kuechly (concussion). His return this week would
drop Doug Martin’s value down a peg or two but he remains
a low end RB2 entering Week 8. Martin has seen his workload decrease
since returning to the field this season. He has been able to
keep his fantasy owners happy by riding the coattails of the passing
game into the end zone in two of his three games played. This
divisional rivalry should be pretty close throughout but Martin
has only scored once in six games versus the Panthers. Given his
touchdown dependent scoring lines lately, I’d try to find
another option this week. Jacquizz Rodgers has seen minimal work
since returning to a backup role.
Passing
Game Thoughts: As a fantasy owner It’s tough to love
a passing game that only attempts seven passes in an entire game
let alone one in which there are few playmakers. That is what
Chicago is bringing to the table with rookie starter Mitchell
Trubisky under center. Da Bears are dead last in fantasy points
scored by quarterbacks and wide receivers over the past three
weeks. Those stats are not born out of poor play, however, as
the Bears have played quality defensive units over that stretch.
This week should provide a better barometer of what fantasy owners
can expect from Chicago’s passing scheme over the rest of
the year. It’s unlikely that the Bears defense will shut
down the Saints offense enough to allow the offense to be so conservative
this weekend. That should open the doors for Trubisky to shatter
his current high-water mark of 128 passing yards in this contest
but it isn’t nearly enough to make him a starting fantasy
option. It does however, make it plausible for Chicago to have
a worthwhile flex receiver this week. The only problem is that
there isn’t a true touchdown threat amongst this group of
receivers. Chicago pulled off a rare trade to upgrade its talent
at the WR position but Dontrelle Inman isn’t likely to make
an impact after only a handful of days with the team. If you feel
like dipping your toes in the frigid waters of this passing attack,
TE Zach Miller is the best gamble. The veteran tight end is the
team’s best red zone target and could easily see an uptick
in production for Week 8 if there are more passes to go around.
NO FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.12
NO FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.15
NO FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.12
NO FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.22
Running Game Thoughts: The media spotlight may be on Mitchell
Trubisky’s development, or lack thereof, in the passing
game but the fantasy spotlight is on the Bears’ rushing
game. Jordan Howard hasn’t seen less than 19 touches over
the past five weeks and is easily the strongest fantasy player
the team has to offer this week. Unfortunately, he has become
a volume based RB2 that is playing a team that typically forces
teams to abandon the run. Not the Bears. They have no other choice
but to stick with the run if they have any hope of winning games
in 2017. That’s good news for Howard owners but it still
doesn’t paint a great picture for his outlook this week.
New Orleans has only given up two rushing scores to running backs
on the season and I’m not sure the Bears will have many
opportunities to score touchdowns in this game. They are amongst
the worst in attaining first downs and have already seen eight
drives end due to a lost fumble this year. Tarik Cohen is the
play-making counterpart to Howard’s yeoman role. Cohen is
a logical choice to see a ton of work out of the backfield in
the second half if the Bears are trailing by more than two scores.
He salvaged his Week 7 day with a lone 70-yard reception. The
youngster hasn’t had much luck on the ground in recent weeks
so he is dependent on a passing game that hasn’t taken the
reins off its rookie quarterback. With more passes in the forecast
I’d consider deploying Cohen as a flex in PPR leagues but
pump the brakes in traditional scoring leagues.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Drew Brees is coming off back-to-back two-interception
games to face one of the better defenses in the league in Week
8. Nonetheless, the Saints are one of the top five offenses in
the NFL and present fantasy owners with plenty of starting options
this week. If you happen to own a quality backup to Brees with
a better matchup there is an argument to be made for sitting Brees.
I don’t think this game will turn into a blowout unless
turnovers pile up for the Bears so expect New Orleans’ pass
catchers to hit their averages this weekend. Which receiver to
own after Michael Thomas is the tougher question. Brandon Coleman
out-snapped Ted Ginn Jr. 54 to 39 in Week 7. Yet Ginn had the
bigger fantasy day to remain the better fantasy option between
the two. However, Willie Snead (hamstring) was able to practice
in full this week. Snead is a major threat to steal playing time
away from Ginn this year but until it happens it is tough to predict
how the targets will be split. Anyone getting regular looks in
this offense should be on the fantasy map, but this could be a
week where fantasy owners choose to wait and see how the passing
game is affected with Snead in the lineup.
CHI FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.27
CHI FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.21
CHI FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.22
CHI FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.24
Running Game Thoughts: Over the
past three weeks only Jacksonville has scored more fantasy points
with their running backs than New Orleans. The tandem of Mark
Ingram and Alvin Kamara are getting it done for the Saints and
fantasy owners despite splitting the workload. You can look at
the snap count and adjust your weekly projections but they are
both worth starting in all formats. Kamara plays up in PPR leagues
but he has had at least 80 total yards in each of his last three
games. In a lesser offense I may consider holding the rookie out
in a tough matchup. However, the recent play of this backfield
and struggles of the opposing offense should translate into plenty
of work for both running backs in Week 8.
Passing
Game Thoughts: The only thing that could stop the dominance
of Deshaun Watson was the one thing he couldn’t control
- the bye week. Prior to that, Watson had been perhaps the biggest
surprise breakout superstar of the 2017 season. However, after
facing some suspect secondaries like the Patriots, Titans, Chiefs
and Browns, Watson now faces perhaps the most daunting possible
matchup - a road game against the Seahawks and the 12th Man. Seattle
has given up the fourth-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing
quarterbacks this season and only one quarterback has thrown for
more than one touchdown in a game against them thus far. In fact,
they’ve held four of their six opponents to fewer than 10
fantasy points at the QB position. Of course, Watson is another
animal in comparison to any of the other QB’s they’ve
played against, but the most comparable QB they’ve gone
against is probably Indianapolis’ Jacoby Brissett, who was
held to 157 passing yards with one touchdown and 33 rushing yards.
Watson is still a borderline QB1 this week but temper your expectations
as this might be the week he comes back down to Earth. If he doesn’t,
however, it’s all systems go for Watson being perhaps a
top-three fantasy QB for the remainder of the season. As far as
receivers go, expect both DeAndre Hopkins and Will Fuller to see
their fair share of Richard Sherman. Still, Hopkins himself is
a borderline WR1 simply due to the target share he sees and the
likelihood that he’ll be moved all over the field to take
advantage of other defensive matchups. Fuller’s reception
totals have remained low and his touchdown rate is completely
unsustainable but it’s hard to argue with success. Put him
in your lineup as a low-end WR2 or Flex option, but he’s
probably better used in non-PPR formats.
SEA FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.30
SEA FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.25
SEA FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.29
SEA FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.15
Running Game Thoughts: While Lamar Miller certainly hasn’t
set the fantasy world on fire this season, it’s true that
the running game still revolves around him and D’Onta Foreman
is unfortunately unusable for fantasy purposes as long as Miller
is healthy. Miller has carried the ball between 14 to 19 times
in every game this season and he’s been surprisingly decent
in the passing game, but he’s only been a fantasy RB1 in
one game so far this season. The Seahawks have been elite against
opposing running backs as well, having allowed the fourth-fewest
fantasy points per game to the position and they have not given
up more than 65 rushing yards in a contest since Week 3. On paper,
this looks like a tough game for Miller, who is still a mid-level
RB2 because of his consistent usage but his upside is also fairly
limited.
Passing
Game Thoughts: You get the feeling that the big game from
Russell Wilson is coming. It sort of came this past week when
Wilson lit up the Giants for 334 yards and three scores. Still,
his running really hasn’t been there despite the fact that
he appears to be back to his old, mobile self. Doug Baldwin has
had a tough start to the season but he got back on track this
past week as well, when he caught nine passes for 92 yards and
a touchdown. Jimmy Graham has also now scored touchdowns in back-to-back
weeks and appears to be one of the top options at the position
again. In Week 8, Graham will get a Texans defense that gave up
98 yards to Travis Kelce and 89 yards with a touchdown to Rob
Gronkowski, so make sure to get him in your lineup. Wilson has
the ability to light this defense up and should be a locked in
QB1 as long as the team is struggling with running the ball with
their running backs. Essentially their entire offense has to go
through him.
HOU FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.15
HOU FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.28
HOU FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.20
HOU FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.13
Running Game Thoughts: Running game? What running game? Seriously,
this situation is about as bad as it gets. An offense that hasn’t
been able to run the ball all season with a cluttered backfield
where as many as four players are getting carries on a week-to-week
basis does not inspire much confidence for fantasy purposes. The
one player who might still be able to produce numbers because
of his pass catching ability is C.J. Prosise but he’s been
hobbled with injuries and seems unlikely to play this week against
the Texans. If you’re absolutely desperate, you could roll
the dice on Thomas Rawls or Eddie Lacy and hope for a short-yardage
touchdown, but that’s about what it has become at this point
for the Seattle running game. No player is worth much for fantasy
purposes, especially this week against a Houston defense that
has given up the third-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing
running backs with only one total rushing touchdown given up on
the season.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Coming off of one of the worst performances
of his professional career, Denver quarterback Trevor Siemian
has to look to get back on track if he wants to even hold onto
this job going forward. Thankfully, this week he’ll get
one of the secondaries that has been lit up multiple times this
season, the Kansas City Chiefs. Kansas City has given up 20 or
more points to opposing QBs in four of their seven games this
season, including a monster three touchdown and 400-yard performance
to Derek Carr this past week. It’s certainly reasonable
to bench Trevor Siemian as he has looked terrible, but his receivers
- specifically Demaryius Thomas - look like great options in this
contest. The thing to watch in this game is the health of Emmanuel
Sanders who is still not practicing after injuring his ankle in
Week 6. The Broncos-Chiefs game is a Monday night contest and
while the team has hinted that Sanders has a chance to play, it
doesn’t look particularly likely that he will. If he’s
unable to suit up, look for Bennie Fowler to get a chance to play
yet again. Fowler actually led the team in snaps at wide receiver
this past week and was also the team’s most productive pass
catcher against the Chargers. Fowler himself does have some Flex-worthy
upside in this matchup if Sanders does not play. If Sanders is
able to play, however, he likely won’t be at full capacity,
which would significantly limit his upside, so he should probably
still be benched for fantasy purposes, at least for the time being.
KC FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.7
KC FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.18
KC FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.1
KC FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.20
Running Game Thoughts: C.J. Anderson is still the lead dog in
the Denver backfield, but it’s becoming increasingly difficult
to trust him for fantasy purposes as he has now failed to exceed
11 touches in back-to-back contests - both multiple-score losses
to the Giants and Chargers. The game script of being behind on
the scoreboard rarely leads to fantasy production for running
backs, but that is especially true for players like Anderson who
are not used much in the passing game. One player to watch out
for in potential blowout losses for Denver is fellow running back
Devontae Booker who has creeped back up into fantasy relevance
with a couple of decent pass catching games in these blowout losses.
If Booker is able to continue to make plays in the passing game,
he may work himself into more playing time than the 34 total snaps
he has seen in the past two weeks. This game does look like another
potential big loss for the Broncos, so be careful with Anderson
as he may be limited again in touches.
Passing
Game Thoughts: The Chiefs were unable to get back in the
win column this past week but their offense continues to roll
at a ridiculous pace as Alex Smith has now thrown 15 touchdowns
without a single interception this season. To put that into perspective,
in less than half of a season, Smith has now thrown as many touchdowns
as he did in the entire 2016 season. While this pace seems unsustainable,
the weapons are making it so that we have to consider Smith a
QB1 for the time being. While the Broncos are great against the
pass and have held Smith in check in the past, this appears to
be a totally different Chiefs offense and it’s going to
be tough to keep Smith on your fantasy bench even in this admittedly
difficult matchup.
One place that the Broncos have quietly struggled is against
opposing tight ends. They’ve given up at least 60 receiving
yards to the position in five straight contests, including three
touchdowns over that span, and they rank in the bottom five in
the league in fantasy points per game conceded to opposing tight
ends. Needless to say, with Kelce already being a must-start on
a week-to-week basis, he now moves into possibly being ranked
as the No. 1 tight end in the league this week in what should
be a game where he is targeted heavily. Wide receiver Tyreek Hill
might not have as easy of a time getting open as he’ll be
lined up against perhaps the league’s best cornerback trio
no matter where he goes on the field, but he is the type of player
who just needs that one crease to take it to the house. Still,
because of the matchup, he’s more of a WR2 this week instead
of being the low-end WR1 with big upside that he usually is. Demarcus
Robinson saw a bit of a breakout this past week, catching five
passes for 69 yards against the Raiders, but it’d be wise
to wait on deploying him in fantasy lineups, especially in what
could be the toughest matchup he sees all season. Still, keep
an eye on Robinson as the Chiefs do need another receiver to step
up now that Chris Conley is on IR.
DEN FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.22
DEN FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.32
DEN FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.28
DEN FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.5
Running Game Thoughts: After absolutely torching defenses for
the first month of the season, Kareem Hunt has cooled off a bit
over the past three weeks. Still, the rookie tailback continues
to produce big numbers overall and he has compiled over 100 yards
from scrimmage in every game this season. The Broncos defense
remains excellent against opposing running backs this season,
having held opposing backs to fewer than 80 rushing yards in all
but one game, but Hunt’s usage is just too much. If the
Chiefs get out to a lead, as many expect that they will, Hunt
should touch the ball around 20 total times in this contest, which
would almost certainly lead to him having an RB2 floor with the
potential, again, to be one of the high-end producers at his position.
It’s a tough matchup, but the Chiefs are at home - don’t
get cute. Start this super-stud back every week until he gives
us a reason to not trust him.
Passing
Game Thoughts: In two games against the Broncos, Philip
Rivers has five touchdowns and one interception. You would think
that bodes well for a matchup against a pass defense that has
allowed a 300-yard passer in every game in which they haven’t
faced Matt Ryan. Rivers only threw for 183 yards last week and
two touchdowns but he’s on track to post the lowest completion
percentage of his career. Rivers has devolved into a one read
QB. He looks at Keenan Allen and if Allen isn’t open, he
just checks it down to Melvin Gordon. Allen had a down week last
week as the Broncos inability to do anything on offense allowed
the Chargers to just sit on their lead.
Allen is a strong WR1 play this week in what should be a higher
scoring contest. As for Tyrell Williams, he may actually be playable,
but he only saw one target last week and is not someone Rivers
deliberately looks for. At tight end, the Hunter Henry ascension
is on full display. Antonio Gates still won’t retire, but
at least he is fading into the background. Henry continues to
out-snap Gates and now has 20 targets over his last three games.
He has become an every week option at the position.
NE FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.1
NE FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.6
NE FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.4
NE FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.6
Running Game Thoughts: Melvin Gordon has spent his entire career
being inefficient and ineffective. He is not good at football
however, for fantasy, we don’t care as long as he’s
getting the ball. Gordon put up a dud last week, but still saw
18 carries and four targets. The opportunity is not going anywhere
and neither are the goal line carries, even if coach Anthony Lynn
is so uncreative that he runs four consecutive dives from the
one-yard line. Gordon’s owners can’t be pleased about
the four failures, but have to be encouraged by the usage. Gordon
should have more success against the Patriots, particularly in
the passing game. Austin Ekeler somehow caught four passes for
six yards and a touchdown last week. He is the satellite back
and the guy to own if Gordon goes down. However, as long as Gordon
is healthy, he’s the only show in town.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Another week, another good, not great performance
from Tom Brady. You’re paying for consistency with Brady.
The week winning upside is always there, but it’s not any
more there for Brady than it is for a number of other QBs. The
advantage Brady gives you is that even on his down weeks, he won’t
completely fail you. The consistent 30+ point weeks are a thing
of the past. Brady threw for 249 yards and two touchdowns last
week, the first of which wasn’t really even a pass. Brady
literally just let go of the ball after the snap and Brandin Cooks
took it on a glorified jet sweep and followed his blockers into
the end zone. Despite their shutout performance last week, the
Chargers are going to struggle with the Patriots. Cooks remains
consistent from with 85 yards or a touchdown in five out of seven
games. Chris Hogan had a bounce back game after his one catch
dud to post 71 yards on four catches. Rob Gronkowski led the team
with seven targets, but had an empty 51-yard performance. Danny
Amendola was just a total bust (3-17) and could miss this week’s
game with a hyperextended knee. Cooks, Hogan, and Gronk will once
again be strong starts.
LAC FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.24
LAC FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.13
LAC FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.11
LAC FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.31
Running Game Thoughts: Out of all four Patriots running backs,
Mike Gillislee posted by far the worst ypc (3.9) last week. James
White was at 4.8 with Rex Burkhead at 5.2 and Dion Lewis posted
5.8 ypc. Lewis led the team in carries with 13 and also got the
start. He is the main back going forward while White continues
to operate as the pass catching back. He caught all five of his
targets for 28 yards and a touchdown. Burkhead looked good in
his return from injury and would stand to inherit significant
value if either White or Lewis went down. With both healthy, they
are the two to own. Gillislee hasn’t scored since Week 2,
which means he hasn’t been more than an RB4 since Week 2.
He can be cut everywhere. Lewis and White are both setup for useful
games this week as the Chargers should put up more of a fight
than the Falcons, thus forcing the Patriots to do more offensively.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Derek Carr just needed a game to get back
into the swing of things. On his second game since missing just
one week with his back injury, Carr exploded for 417 yards and
three touchdowns on a whopping 52 pass attempts. Over half (yes
half) of his yardage went to Amari Cooper. Do not adjust your
screen (you can rub your eyes if you want) as it really was Amari
Cooper recording 74 more receiving yards last week than he did
in his first six games combined. Cooper caught 11-of-19 targets
for 210 yards and two touchdowns. He is back. Fear not Michael
Crabtree owners as he was not left out of the action. Crabtree
caught the game winning touchdown to mark his third consecutive
game with a score. Although three of his touchdowns came in one
game, he is currently averaging a touchdown per week. Even Jared
Cook got involved with 6-107 on seven targets. The Bills’
once great pass defense just allowed a banged up Jameis Winston
to throw for 384 yards and three touchdowns. Two of them went
to O.J. Howard, which is encouraging for Cook’s prospects
this week. The Raiders have a better offense than the Bucs and
will struggle defensively, which sets Carr and friends up nicely
for another potential score fest.
BUF FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.20
BUF FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.27
BUF FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.17
BUF FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.10
Running Game Thoughts: Marshawn Lynch cares so little about football
that it’s truly embarrassing he’s still on an NFL
roster. I’m not saying he can’t play anymore, but
the man is just collecting a paycheck and getting the Beast Mode
Brand ready for life after football. The Raiders rushing splits
with and without Lynch are nearly identical. Lynch literally adds
nothing to the team. Fantasy owners should not have been starting
him for weeks and at least it’s literally impossible to
make the mistake of starting him this week. His one-game suspension
for pushing a referee makes that decision easier. DeAndre Washington
and Jalen Richard will split snaps with a little Cordarelle Patterson
sprinkled in. Neither Washington nor Richard is particularly appealing,
but there are a lot of teams on bye this week making both a consideration
for fantasy owners. Washington is the favorite for goal line carries
as evidenced by the fact that he assumed that role last week.
Richard is the pass catcher and more likely to pop a big play.
Both can be viable fill in options. The Bills are top five in
rushing defense and the Raiders are a passing offense. If you
start either Raiders back, you’re hoping for a touchdown/a
bunch of receptions.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Tyrod Taylor had his best game of the season
last week, throwing for a season high 268 yards and a touchdown
while adding 53 yards on the ground, his highest rushing total
since Week 2 (55). Taylor’s passing upside is always limited
and it doesn’t help that he really doesn’t have wide
receivers. Taylor’s leading receiver was Deonte Thompson
(4-107), who was signed last week. Other than Thompson, no one
caught more than two passes except LeSean McCoy, who continues
to lead the team in receptions. Taylor’s touchdown was to
former QB third-string TE, Logan Thomas. A returning Jordan Matthews
provided no help, catching just two of three targets for 10 yards.
Meanwhile, Zay Jones saw nine targets and continued to be one
of the least efficient players in the league by catching just
two of them. Jones’ catch rate is currently the worst in
NFL history. Taylor is a viable streamer in normal leagues and
a starter in two-QB leagues, but his ceiling will always be capped.
There are no pass catchers worth rostering.
OAK FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.16
OAK FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.11
OAK FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.15
OAK FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.14
Running Game Thoughts: My “bold” prediction last
week that LeSean McCoy would finally find the end zone was doubly
correct as he did it twice! Shady carried the ball 23 times for
91 yards and caught five of seven targets for 31 yards. His efficiency
is nowhere near typical Shady levels, but his volume is amongst
the safest and highest in the league. As long as he can stay on
the field, he will be an RB1. Hopefully the touchdown count can
increase as McCoy was able to deliver after Mike Tolbert failed
at the goal line. Tolbert is probably a better and safer move
for the Bills, but us fantasy owners want that to be McCoy. He
has a good shot to score again this week against a decidedly average
Raiders run defense and the arrow is trending upwards on McCoy’s
season long outlook as the schedule really opens up for the running
game going forward.
Passing
Game Thoughts: C.J. Beathard’s first career start
wasn’t all that bad. He threw for 235 empty yards and added
30 on the ground including a rushing score. He’s like a
lesser version of Trevor Siemian. Beathard led Marquise Goodwin
to a relevant fantasy day, sending eight targets Goodwin’s
way which resulted in four catches for 80 yards. Pierre Garcon
caught five of seven targets for 49 yards. Trent Taylor caught
all five of his targets for 39 yards. Beathard is unlikely to
make anyone a superstar, but Goodwin and Garcon could both be
viable starters this week in the wake of injuries and byes. The
Eagles are one of the worst pass defenses in the league and the
49ers are going to be trailing the entire game. Garcon remains
a WR3 and Goodwin could be a sneaky good start this week as well.
PHI FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.5
PHI FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.29
PHI FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.7
PHI FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.7
Running Game Thoughts: Remember when Matt Breida was going to
take Carlos Hyde’s job? I ‘member. When someone is
so far and away the best player on their team, they do not lose
their job. Hyde is a true feature back. Breida touched the ball
three times last week while Hyde touched the ball 18 times. Hyde’s
volume saved his fantasy day as he was able to total 88 yards
on the game and catch four passes. More encouraging were the eight
targets Beathard sent Hyde’s way. Beathard is going to check
it down a lot and Hyde is fully capable of capitalizing on that
fact. The Eagles post the league’s best rushing defense
meaning Hyde may struggle to get going on the ground, but should
be heavily involved in the passing game, especially with the Eagles
nursing a heavy lead allowing many dump offs to Hyde. This won’t
be a ceiling game for Hyde, but he offers a high enough floor
that is even better in PPR.
Passing
Game Thoughts: :Insert image of me waving a white flag
here: I am done doubting Carson Wentz. I thought he was okay,
but nothing special. I was wrong. Wentz is already a top 10 QB
and pushing even higher. His touchdown pass to Corey Clement last
week is another one of those plays you can point to that indicates
a player has “it.” Wentz has thrown 11 touchdowns
in his last three games and has been a fantasy monster. Amazingly,
but perhaps unsurprisingly, he’s done it without Alshon
Jeffery. In a game where Wentz threw for 268 yards and four touchdowns,
Jeffery caught just two balls for 37 yards. He’s fallen
behind both Zach Ertz and apparently Nelson Agholor in the receiving
pecking order. Wentz can’t play any better than he has over
the past three weeks and all Jeffery has to show for it is nine
catches for 139 empty yards.
We all saw what Dak Prescott did to the 49ers last week. Wentz
is going to light them up but if Jeffery can’t produce,
he’s going to find himself on the cut list. Ertz, on the
other hand, is pushing to finish as the top scoring TE on the
season. He’s been the most consistent player in all of fantasy
at any position, with at least five catches and 81 yards or a
touchdown in every game. Ertz is physically gifted and he is a
favorite target of Wentz, especially in the red zone. Ertz should
be valued somewhere between Kelce and Gronk right now. Nelson
Agholor has now scored in three straight games and five out of
seven on the season. He hasn’t posted a 100-yard game and
hasn’t topped four receptions since Week 1, but it is hard
to deny he is not a weekly WR3 at this point. I still refuse to
believe and the fact that he bobbled and caught at least two of
his four receptions Monday night only adds to my concerns, but
Agholor has been fantasy useful. Against the 49ers laughably bad
defense, Aggy is certainly a starter.
SF FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.3
SF FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.1
SF FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.8
SF FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.30
Running Game Thoughts: With Wendell Smallwood returning, this
backfield turned into an unusable mess. Carson Wentz was the team’s
leading rusher with 63 yards. Corey Clement and Kenjon Barner
combined to touch the ball just three times. It was really just
Smallwood splitting carries with LeGarrette Blount. Every time
I try and give Blount credit and consider that maybe I was wrong
about him, he goes and does something like this. Blount rushed
for 29 yards on 14 carries. 21 of those yards came on a garbage
time carry at the end of the game where he was just burning clock.
That’s…bad. Smallwood wasn’t much better with
25 yards on eight carries. This week’s game projects as
one where Blount could see 20+ touches and goal line carries.
Whether he can do anything with that usage remains to be seen.
He is probably worth gambling on, though. Smallwood is not.
Passing
Game Thoughts: The Falcons offense has completely fallen
apart. When you consider what’s changed from last year to
this year, it’s hard not to point the finger at OC Steve
Sarkisian. He’s taken the same group of players that produced
the most efficient offense of 2016 and turned them into trash.
Matt Ryan was the MVP last season but currently sits as the QB21
by average points per game. There is simply no justification for
starting him. Bad matchup. Good matchup. It doesn’t matter.
Ryan cannot produce. I thought maybe the Patriots defense would
present a “get right” spot for Ryan. Instead, Ryan
presented a “get right” spot for the Patriots defense
as he became the first passer to fail to reach 300 yards against
them.
Perhaps the Falcons should draw up more plays for Julio Jones?
Just a thought. Jones finally “caught” a touchdown
pass last week. I put that in quotes because Jones didn’t
really catch it, but rather Malcolm Butler caught the pass and
then Jones grabbed it from Butler’s hands and said “this
is mine now.” Jones is not a WR1 anymore and that is not
going to change. He is still an excellent real life WR and a good
one in fantasy, but he’s more WR2. However, that information
is more useful in trade negotiations than weekly lineup management
as you’re still never benching Jones. Austin Hooper completely
disappeared last week after looking like he was going to be a
bigger part of the offense, but Mohamed Sanu returned and saw
10 targets, putting him on the WR3 map for this week.
NYJ FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.9
NYJ FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.10
NYJ FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.9
NYJ FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.8
Running Game Thoughts: Devonta Freeman averaged six yards per
touch last week, yet only touched the ball 15 times. It harkens
back to this offense just not being managed well. Freeman still
has a high floor, but we would like to see that ceiling a little
more. With Tevin Coleman an afterthought in the offense (just
six carries and no targets last week), it is surprising that Freeman
is not benefiting. Again, I am not quite sure what Sarkisian is
doing. The Jets have struggled against RBs that are actually good
(Jay Ajayi does not count), but they’ve only faced two of
them (McCoy and Fournette) this season. Look for Freeman and perhaps
Coleman to get back on track this week.
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Game Thoughts: Do you know who is definitely a better fantasy
QB than Matt Ryan? Josh McCown. McCown accounted for all four
of the Jets touchdowns last week (three passing, one rushing)
and now has thrown for multiple scores in three straight games.
There are a number of QB1s on bye this week so McCown should not
be sitting in your league’s free agent pool. He spread the
ball around last week with no player seeing more than five targets.
Both Robby Anderson and Jermaine Kearse caught touchdowns, but
Kearse’s was on his only target of the day. Another week,
another touchdown for Austin Seferian-Jenkins. The schedule is
only getting more difficult and he can’t score every week
(I think), but he’s a TE1 in this matchup. The Falcons are
a team trending in the wrong direction and a loss to the Jets
wouldn’t shock me in the least. McCown & Co. could be
in for a nice weekend. Anderson and Kearse are on the radar as
flex plays due to bye weeks, but neither is necessarily a recommended
option.
ATL FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.21
ATL FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.8
ATL FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.21
ATL FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.28
Running Game Thoughts: Bilal Powell and Matt Forte were effective
last week. Powell rushed for 43 yards on eight carries and added
two receptions for 40 yards. Forte rushed for 41 yards on seven
carries and added five receptions for 41 yards. It does look like
Forte is back as the leading man for the Jets, but he is still
splitting with Powell and Elijah McGurie gets into the mix as
well. You could do worse than Forte as a PPR option. With 13 receptions
over the last two weeks, he is the preferred play over Powell.
If one of them is going to score a touchdown, it is more likely
to be Forte as well.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Dak Prescott is the number one fantasy QB
through the first seven weeks of the season. No one is talking
about a sophomore slump anymore. Prescott threw one touchdown
in Week 1 and two touchdowns in Week 2. Since Week 3, he’s
scored (including rushing) at least three touchdowns in every
game. He’s an every week elite option regardless of matchup.
Prescott’s ascendance to the ranks of the elite has revived
Dez Bryant a bit. Bryant has a touchdown in four of his last five
games. He hasn’t caught more than seven balls in a game
and has yet to top 100 yards receiving, but with 31 targets over
the last three weeks, Bryant may just have another WR1 season
in him. After Bryant, it’s still Jason Witten, who seems
to alternate two game sets of usefulness and uselessness. Witten
was a TE1 in weeks 1 and 2. He wasn’t even a TE2 in weeks
3 and 4. He was back to being a TE1 weeks 5 and 6. Based on that
trend, you don’t want to start him this week, but I’d
be willing to take out a position on Witten bucking the trend
in a game that projects to be high scoring. Terrance Williams
and Cole Beasley are not fantasy options.
WAS FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.10
WAS FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.20
WAS FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.27
WAS FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.2
Running Game Thoughts: Ezekiel Elliott had the single best RB
game of the season last week with 147 yards rushing and two touchdowns
while adding a 72-yard touchdown reception on a really impressive
run after the catch. Elliott has six touchdowns in six games and
has rushed for over 100 yards three times. He’s an elite
RB1. Washington’s run defense has been in the top third
of the league, but they haven’t stopped anyone good. Both
Todd Gurley and Kareem Hunt had no trouble picking up chunks of
yardage on the Redskins. Zeke will do just the same.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Similar to Dak Prescott, Kirk Cousins also
has a nice streak of multi-touchdown games. He has scored (including
rushing) three touchdowns in three of his last four games and
posted back to back 300-yard passing games. After a slow start
(which was a theme across the NFL), Cousins is putting up weekly
QB1 numbers. Last week was the first time he relied on Jordan
Reed to get him there. I secretly think Jay Gruden is a terrible
head coach but we will know for sure in a couple years. His game
planning seems to be awful. I am not quite sure why it took him
six weeks and two quarters to realize that drawing up plays for
Reed is a good idea. Reed’s second half snap count was higher
than his first half as the Redskins were in catch up mode. In
an effort to get back in the game, Reed saw more targets. It went
pretty well as Reed racked up 84 yards and two touchdowns on six
receptions. I’d still like to see Reed do it again before
endorsing him as “back,” but last week was encouraging.
What wasn’t encouraging was Terrelle Pryor’s apparent
benching. He has been unproductive all season and now appears
to have fallen behind Josh Doctson and Ryan Grant on the depth
chart. With Jamison Crowder having been completely irrelevant
all season, it is surprising that Pryor was unable to get going.
Unfortunately, that appears to be the case. Pryor is droppable.
Doctson is quite talented and could emerge into as much as a WR2,
but his snap share would have to significantly increase and his
target count would have to rise. He’s a hold, but not yet
a start. Vernon Davis is another pass catcher that may actually
have value, irrespective of Jordan Reed’s status. Davis
has posted Flex worthy numbers for four straight games. On a week
featuring a litany of byes, Davis is a legitimate Flex option
even with Reed healthy.
DAL FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.13
DAL FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.16
DAL FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.6
DAL FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.25
Running Game Thoughts: Continuing on the Jay Gruden might be
awful at coaching theme, I think it is fair to assume that he
watches the games he coaches. So he is watching Rob Kelley be
the worst RB in the NFL (without Paul Perkins around, Kelley takes
the mantle). Over his last two games, Kelley has taken 14 carries
for 39 yards. Samaje Perine has not been much better, but he certainly
deserves a look at this point ahead of Kelley. Gruden won’t
do it though because he knows better. At least Chris Thompson
is being heavily featured as he provides the offense with the
biggest spark and the most versatility. Thompson touched the ball
12 times last week for a total of 64 yards and a touchdown. He’s
caught at least five passes in all but one game this season. Thompson
has established himself as a weekly PPR RB2. He could lead the
Redskins in receptions this week with them likely to be throwing
a lot.
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