Passing
Game Thoughts: Matt Hasselbeck filled in for Andrew Luck
last week in the Colts’ win over the Jaguars and did well,
but few fantasy owners will stake their seasons on Hasselbeck.
Luck, on the other hand, was almost certainly highly drafted,
and his poor numbers and absence last week has hampered the owners
relying on him. The good news is, things can only get better for
Luck and his owners. He is apparently looking good to play this
week, as is tight end Dwayne Allen. Coby Fleener had a big game
against Jacksonville, but Allen is the better fantasy option when
healthy.
At receiver, both T.Y. Hilton and Donte Moncrief are solid fantasy
contributors, but it would be nice to see Hilton find the end
zone this week against Houston. The Texans are 12th in the NFL
in pass defense, but the seven passing scores they have allowed
is tied for 20th in the league. Houston has given up the 11th-most
fantasy points to quarterbacks and 14th-most to tight ends, but
has held wideouts to the seventh-fewest points.
Running Game Thoughts: Running back
Frank Gore has had a solid season overall, ranking in the top-20
in fantasy scoring at his position, but he picked up only 53 yards
on 17 carries last week against the Jags (3.1 YPC). He should
be considered a solid RB2 this week with a very good match-up
against a Texans team struggling to contain the run.
Houston ranks 23rd in the league in run defense, and after the
four rushing scores they allowed last week to the Falcons, has
surrendered more rushing scores than all but two other teams in
the NFL. The Texans are also one of just four teams who have given
up multiple receiving scores to opposing runners, and have allowed
the fifth-most fantasy points in the league to running backs.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Despite Ryan Mallett’s struggles (to
put it lightly) against the Falcons last week – a game in
which he was replaced by Brian Hoyer – Mallett will remain
the starting quarterback for the Texans. He isn’t a fantasy
option no matter what and with Cecil Shorts (shoulder) and Nate
Washington (hamstring) out this week, the only Houston player
involved in the passing game who fantasy owners will want to target
is DeAndre Hopkins. He amassed 157 receiving yards last week,
is among the top-five in fantasy scoring at wide receiver, and
his 61 targets are nine more than any other player in football.
He’s a WR1 each week, but has a particularly good match-up
against Indianapolis, who has had trouble with opposing wideouts.
The Colts rank 23rd in the league in pass defense, and though
they can reasonably be called average in terms of fantasy points
allowed to both quarterbacks and tight ends, they have surrendered
the sixth-most fantasy points in the league to opposing wide receivers.
They were scorched by Jacksonville’s Allen Hurns last week,
allowing him to catch 11 passes for 116 yards and a touchdown.
In addition, the Colts may be without their best cornerback as
Vontae Davis (foot) missed practice this week. If he’s ruled
inactive, Hopkins’ value gets a boost (if that’s even
possible) as Davis likely would lineup opposite him most of the
night.
Running Game Thoughts: Arian Foster
returned last week, so fantasy owners can stop trying to figure
out which Texans runner will get the majority of the carries.
Foster picked up only 10 yards on eight carries against Atlanta,
but he did gain 25 yards on three receptions. He’s no longer
the every-week RB1, but Foster will help fantasy owners this week
against the Colts. Jonathan Grimes is out for this game so Alfred
Blue and Chris Polk will be serving in a backup role.
Indianapolis is 25th in the NFL in rush defense, and are among
numerous teams tied for 19th in rushing scores permitted. They
have allowed the 14th-most fantasy points in the league to running
backs, and it should be noted they allowed the previously underwhelming
T.J. Yeldon to scamper for 105 yards in their game against Jacksonville
a week ago.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Josh McCown has performed better than most
could have expected this season. The journeyman is coming off
his best game with the Browns and one of the best games of his
career, having completed 32-of-41 passes for 356 yards with 2
touchdowns and no interceptions against the Chargers. Perhaps,
the most compelling part of his performance is that unlike his
time with the Cardinals, Bears and Buccaneers, McCown hasn’t
been given a lot to work with in Cleveland. McCown lines up with
only the mediocre Brian Hartline and tiny targets Travis Benjamin,
Andrew Hawkens and Taylor Gabriel running patterns. Benjamin has
been the biggest surprise with 4 touchdowns on the season and
has emerged as a dangerous deep threat. 30-year-old Gary Barnidge
has also come out of nowhere to catch 12 balls for 180 yards and
two scores over the last two weeks. The lumbering tight end had
only 44 receptions during the first six years of his career but
has 16 already in 2015. He’s emerged as McCown’s favorite
target, as Benjamin did most of his damage when playing with backup
Johnny Manziel.
Baltimore’s pass defense held a rusty Michael Vick in check
last week, but has been up and down all season. In Week 1, the
team shut down Hall of Famer Peyton Manning, but was then lit
up by Derek Carr and Andy Dalton during the following weeks. On
the season the Ravens are allowing 242.3 passing yards per game
and have allowed 7 passing touchdowns. This should be a favorable
matchup, so for those owners that are streaming quarterbacks and
tight ends, the Browns’ duo could merit some consideration.
Running Game Thoughts: Rookie Duke Johnson had his coming out
party last week. Perhaps his performance should have been discussed
above since most of his production came in the passing game. Johnson
only rushed for 31 yards but caught 9 balls for 85 yards and a
touchdown. Second year runner Isaiah Crowell is still the preferred
running game threat but is averaging under 4 yards per carry and
could give way to Robert Turbin who is looking to return soon
from a high ankle sprain. The Browns would like to be a ball control
offense but their defense has not played as well as expected and
the team has needed to turn to the passing attack more than it
would have liked. Like Johnson, Crowell also did most of his damage
last week as a pass catcher catching three balls for 62 yards.
Perhaps this week the Browns look to get physical on the ground
in a tough NFC North matchup.
The Ravens run defense is still one of the best in the league
so it will not come easy for Cleveland if they choose to attack
on the ground. Through four weeks the Ravens are allowing only
104.8 rushing yards per game with 3 rushing scores.
Passing
Game Thoughts: The Ravens passing game suffered a major
blow when veteran Steve Smith suffered four cracked bones in his
back last week in Pittsburgh. The injury is forcing him to miss
at least this week’s game and he is in jeopardy of missing
more. Smith joins Breshad Perriman, Michael Campanaro and tight
end Crockett Gillmore on the sidelines leaving Joe Flacco with
very little to work with in the passing game. The Ravens will
now be starting Kamar Aiken and Marlon Brown on the outside with
sixth round rookie Darren Waller used as the third receiver. The
team traded a future seventh round pick for Chris Givens and they
will work with the former Ram to get him up to speed so he can
join in the mix, but this week he’s likely to be inactive.
Flacco struggled for most of last week’s game but moved
the team when it mattered late and got a much needed win. He will
have his work cut out for him working with arguably the worst
collection of pass catchers in the league until Smith is able
to make it back out onto the field.
The Browns have a talented defense but have managed to be less
than the sum of its parts so far. The Browns are the 22nd ranked
pass defense and are allowing 264.8 per game and have given up
9 TDs through the air. The Browns feature one of the best cover
corners in the league in Joe Haden, but little else in the secondary.
Running Game Thoughts: Justin Forsett is coming off his best game
this season where he rushed 27 times for 150 yards. Oddly enough,
Forsett did not catch any passes in the game and instead was used
as a chain mover/workhorse back. Forsett sliced through the Steeler
defense like a hot knife through butter and while it seems strange
to say based on a 27-carry night, he probably wasn’t used
enough as the Steelers had no answer for him. His young backups,
Lorenzo Taliaferro and Buck Allen, didn’t see much action
as Forsett was used as a true bell cow, just when it started looking
like perhaps a changing of the guard may have been imminent. Forsett
struggled during the first three weeks of the season, and perhaps
this could be the turning point for a follow up to his highly
successful 2014 season.
The Browns were one of the worst run defenses in the league last
season and continued that trend this season. They are ranked ahead
of only the Miami Dolphins in rushing yards allowed through four
weeks. The Ravens would love to be able to take control of this
game on the ground in order to take some pressure off of their
undermanned receiving corps. The Browns defense should at least
present them with that chance.
Passing
Game Thoughts: The offseason addition of Jimmy Graham was
supposed to mean a more exciting passing game for the Seahawks
this season. So far that has not materialized. Russell Wilson
is a great young quarterback, but the conservative game plan combined
with his penchant to run and his lack of weapons on the outside
will keep his passing numbers down most weeks. Doug Baldwin and
Jermaine Kearse are solid complementary pieces but are not talented
enough to carry a passing offense and Jimmy Graham, for some reason,
just hasn’t been a big part of the game plan. The lack of
targets for Graham is curious when you consider the team gave
up a pro-bowl caliber center and a first round pick in the package
to acquire him. Nevertheless, Wilson is averaging 245 passing
yards per game and has 5 touchdown passes so it’s not as
if the Seahawks are accomplishing nothing through the air –
it’s just not a very explosive passing attack yet.
On the season the Bengals are allowing 279 passing yards per game
and have given up 6 passing touchdowns while grabbing 3 interceptions.
This aggressive unit has already recorded 11 sacks on the season
but against Russell Wilson the pressure could result in chunks
of yards on the ground if the defenders don’t remain disciplined
during their pursuit.
Running Game Thoughts: Marshawn
Lynch missed last week’s game after leaving the Week 3 contest
with a strained hamstring. The team hopes to have him back for
this week’s game but some reports have stated that there
may be more than just a slight tear to the hamstring. Lynch was
struggling prior to the injury but he is the team’s most
important offensive player outside of Wilson. Seattle used veteran
Fred Jackson and rookie Thomas Rawls in Lynch’s place last
week, but Jackson left the game with a high ankle sprain. That
leaves only the undrafted Rawls for carries should Lynch miss
time again. Rawls had a 100-yard effort in relief of Lynch in
Week 3, but struggled to find room against Detroit last week.
Owners of both players need to keep a keen eye on the practice/injury
reports that are released later this weekend.
The Bengals have held their opponents to an average of 85.8 rushing
yards per game and have not allowed a rushing touchdown thus far.
It will be a tough matchup for either back that gets the starting
nod as the Bengals have as good a front seven as any team in the
league.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Andy Dalton is playing very well through
the first quarter of the season. Having his full compliment of
pass catchers healthy and on the field has made a huge difference
after last season’s struggles. He is on pace to finish the
season with an impressive 36:4 touchdown to interception ratio
and if he maintains his play he should be a serious candidate
for league MVP. Imagine that. Last week it was the running game
that hogged up almost all of the scoring plays, but A.J. Green,
Marvin Jones and Tyler Eifert have been big parts of the offense
and have helped make this a dangerous passing attack. Dalton is
averaging nearly 300 yards per game and over 2 touchdowns per
game, making him one of the better options at the position in
fantasy football as well. This week however presents a difficult
matchup.
The Seahawks have not allowed a passing touchdown since safety
Kam Chancellor ended his hold-out and on the season are now allowing
190.3 passing yards per game with 3 aerial scores. The vaunted
“legion of boom” lost one of its members during the
offseason, Byron Maxwell, but has lost nothing statistically and
the Seahawks are still one of the toughest teams in the league
to pass on.
Running Game Thoughts: Jeremy Hill
scored 3 touchdowns last week and Giovani Bernard added another,
and the tag team approach at running back continued to work well
for the Bengals. The team is blessed with two talented running
backs which may be difficult at times for fantasy owners, but
sometimes like last week everyone goes home happy. Hill has scored
5 rushing touchdowns so far but he has yet to make the big plays
that made him one of the best backs in the league last season.
Bernard, on the other hand, has looked quick and explosive and
has carved out a bigger role than expected. The team still speaks
of Hill as their preferred heavy lifter in the running game, but
there’s only so long his weekly production can be ignored.
The stout Seahawks’ run defense will present a challenge
to both Cincinnati backs. Seattle has allowed only 2 rushing touchdowns
on the season and is allowing only 88.5 yards per game. This is
an important game for both teams and this should be one of the
key matchups on Sunday.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Tavon Austin showed why he was a top 10
selection in the 2013 NFL draft last Sunday. Austin caught 6 balls
for 96 yards and 2 touchdowns and showed well as a pure receiver
and not just a gimmick player. He’s been starting at wide
receiver across from Kenny Britt and is off to a decent start
and 2015 should be his best season as a professional. The Rams
have an interesting cast of characters running patterns for new
quarterback Nick Foles, and their best wide receiver could be
rounding into shape as Brian Quick saw limited action for the
first time this season after recovering from offseason shoulder
surgeries. Kenny Britt is a shell of what he was in his hey-day,
but at least he’s managed to stay out of trouble since reuniting
with head coach Jeff Fisher and has been a dependable target.
Until Quick regains his form, tight end Jared Cook just may be
the most well rounded pass catcher for the team. He’s big
and athletic but has always been somewhat of an underachiever
throughout his career. During the offseason the Rams traded former
No. 1 overall pick Sam Bradford to the Eagles for Nick Foles,
and while neither quarterback has been great, the Rams look like
they came out ahead in that exchange so far, especially when you
take into consideration the considerable difference in salary
between the two.
The Packers’ pass defense is allowing only 197 yards per
game in 2015 which once again places them in the top 10 of pass
defenses in the league. Their fierce pass rush led by Julius Peppers
and Clay Matthews already has 17 sacks on the season and could
cause major problems for the awkward statuesque Foles, who got
into the bad habit of backpedaling and throwing off his back foot
when under pressure last season with the Eagles. The Rams passing
attack could find itself in some trouble on the not yet frozen
tundra of Lambeau Field if they cannot protect their quarterback.
Running Game Thoughts: Another top
10 pick, Todd Gurley, had his coming out party last week as well.
In his first extended action following reconstructive ACL surgery
the former Georgia Bulldog rushed for 146 yards on 19 carries
and looked like the next dominant running back in the league.
His speed and vision combined with his 227 pound frame will make
him the centerpiece of the Rams’ offense so long as he stays
healthy. The Rams offensive line is a work in progress so days
like this may not happen on a weekly basis, but the horse is now
out of the barn and it’s time for Tre Mason and Benny Cunningham
to make way for the league’s next big thing. Expect consistent
18-25 carry days for Gurley going forward.
The Packers are a below average run defense, allowing 115 yards
per game and 4 rushing touchdowns on the season. The Green Bay
defensive staff will need to put a plan in place against Gurley
if they want to remain undefeated, as it seems obvious that the
Rams will look to run the ball in an effort to not only protect
Nick Foles from being overwhelmed by the pass rush, but to keep
Aaron Rodgers on the sideline as much as possible.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Randle Cobb looks like he still may be experiencing
some pain and stiffness in his shoulder, stemming from a preseason
injury, but even with Cobb hurting and Jordy Nelson out for the
season, Aaron Rodgers cannot be stopped. Last season’s MVP
is looking like a strong repeat candidate, as he’s on pace
for a 44 touchdown season and has yet to throw an interception.
Last week, it was tight end Richard Rodgers on the receiving end
of Aaron’s only touchdown pass, but once again it was veteran
James Jones looking like his favorite target with Nelson out and
Cobb and Davante Adams less than healthy. Adams missed last week’s
game after leaving the prior week’s game with an ankle sprain
and could be a game time decision this week. If you’re an
Aaron Rodgers owner, just R-E-L-A-X, because it doesn’t
matter who the Packers run out there on Sunday. Rodgers will find
them and get them the ball.
The Rams are a middle of the road pass defense allowing 235.3
passing yards per game but have only allowed 3 passing touchdowns
this season. That total could easily be doubled heading into next
week after they face Green Bay.
Running Game Thoughts: Eddie Lacy
is another member of the “banged up club” in the Packer
offense. He suffered an ankle injury earlier in the season but
has been playing through it and while he’s slowed down a
bit, he’s still producing. Lacy only has one rushing touchdown
on the season, but given his role in this high powered offense,
those numbers should pick up. Expect Lacy to see a lot of work
early to soften up the middle of the Rams defense, in order to
open things up for the passing game.
The Rams feature a very strong front seven, but have been a below
average defense against the run. The team is allowing 120.3 yards
per game and has given up three touchdowns on the ground. The
unit was expected to be much better than it has been, and this
will be a tough week to turn things around.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Carson Palmer is on pace to throw 40 touchdowns
against only 12 interceptions and is another of the “non-superstar”
quarterbacks that should be in serious contention for league MVP,
along with Andy Dalton, if current paces remain the same. Palmer
at 35 years old is off to one of the best starts in his career
and must remain healthy for the Cardinals to remain serious championship
contenders. Last week the leaky o-line wasn’t getting the
job done as Palmer was hit often, and the passing game struggled
for the first time this season. Larry Fitzgerald is having a career
renaissance and is silencing those who stated that his career
was in steep decline – I guess trying to catch passes from
Ryan Lindley and Logan Thomas isn’t the best career move.
Rookie running back David Johnson has been a big part of the passing
game, but it looks like he may find himself on the bench after
“playing like a rookie” last week and with Andre Ellington
likely back this week and assuming the third down role.
The Lions defense showed up to play last week, but the end result
was the same, another loss. On the season the Lions’ pass
defense is allowing 271.8 yards per game with 6 touchdown passes
allowed. They have generated 10 sacks on the season and could
make life difficult for Palmer behind the Cardinals’ line
that has had its issues.
Running Game Thoughts: Andre Ellington
is slated to return this week, but his role is expected to be
diminished to a third down/change of pace back behind veteran
Chris Johnson who has shown surprisingly well after some up and
down recent seasons. The 30 year-old running back has taken to
the Arians’ offense and has shown solid all around skills
and looks quicker than he has in years. Rookie David Johnson who
has played well is expected to see a sharp decline in usage, as
Bruce Arians has shown that he does not like to entrust rookies
in significant roles if possible. Chris Johnson should see a fair
amount of carries spelled by Ellington in the Motor City.
The Lions run defense took a hit this offseason with the departures
of Ndamukong Suh and Nick Fairley and is allowing 111.3 yards
per game on the ground and have yielded 5 rushing touchdowns.
This should be a decent matchup for the Arizona running game and
help Chris Johnson solidify his role.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Calvin Johnson was about a half-yard from
giving the Lions their first win of the season, but had the ball
punched out by Kam Chancellor leading to “bat-gate”.
Matthew Stafford has been beaten up badly during the first several
weeks of this season and he’s looking like a shell of himself.
The Lions o-line is not giving him any time and as a result the
play calling has been conservative with a lot of short quick passes
limiting the big play abilities of Johnson and Golden Tate. The
few times that Johnson did run deep patterns, Stafford was not
able to get him the ball accurately. The passing game just doesn’t
look right so far in 2015. Second year tight end Eric Ebron, has
been one of the few bright spots showing why the team used the
number twelve overall pick on him in last year’s draft,
but a knee injury forced him out of last week’s game and
his Week 5 availability is now in doubt. The weapons are there
for a high powered passing attack if the team can find a way to
keep Stafford upright, but so far there’s not much to see
here.
The Cardinals currently sit in the top 10 passing defenses despite
getting lit up in Week 1 by Drew Brees. On the season the unit
is averaging 199.3 yards per game against and has given up 5 touchdowns
through the air. The team boasts a tough secondary led by cover
corner Patrick Peterson and hard hitting safety Tyrann Mathieu,
but in the Lions favor they have not generated a heavy pass rush
so far. Maybe Stafford will have the time to get on track this
week.
Running Game Thoughts: Ameer Abdullah
created a lot of buzz this preseason, but so far the Lions’
running game has been quite stagnant. He has shown flashes of
outstanding lateral agility and elite quickness, but the holes
just aren’t there most of the time he is handed the ball.
The rookie has been getting more snaps than the veteran Joique
Bell who was limited after missing all of the preseason recovering
from multiple surgeries and then missed last week’s game
completely. Last week the “big back” role went to
rookie Zach Zenner, who only played 8 snaps and was not a big
contributor. He should see a few more snaps with Bell expected
to miss another week. Theo Riddick mixes in as a pass catching
option out of the backfield and has looked good in that role.
Abdullah is the only back with star potential but his production
may be hindered by the RBBC that offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi
prefers.
The Cardinals were one of last season’s top ranked defenses
against the run and they have limited the opposition to 107.5
yards per game this season with only 2 rushing touchdowns allowed.
This will be another stiff test for AA, ZZ and Riddick.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Kirk Cousins gained some legitimacy last
week as he led Washington to a late win over Philadelphia, but
is still lacking as a fantasy option, ranking 21st in scoring
among quarterbacks. With DeSean Jackson out and Jordan Reed possibly
out due to a concussion, Pierre Garcon is the team’s best
fantasy option in the passing game. He should be in the mix for
a starting spot on most fantasy rosters this week due to his match-up
with Atlanta. Jamison Crowder took over for Andre Roberts in last
week’s game against the Eagles and is an interesting under
the radar WR3.
The Falcons are 30th in the NFL in pass defense, but because teams
score on them via the ground, Atlanta is tied for sixth-fewest
passing scores allowed. Giving up lots of yards but not many scores
means fantasy points against them aren’t overwhelming, and
as such rank between 14th and 20th in terms of points allowed
to quarterbacks, wide receivers and tight ends.
Running Game Thoughts: Alfred Morris
is 11th in the league in rushing, and that would usually make
for a very solid fantasy contributor, but he’s also without
a touchdown so far this season and is just 35th in fantasy points
among running backs. Thankfully for those that own Morris, he
should finally find the end zone this week – more than once
– against the Falcons.
Atlanta is actually tied for fifth-fewest rushing yards allowed
so far this season, but they rank 27th in YPC surrendered, and
have given up more rushing scores than any other team in the league.
They’ve also permitted more receiving yards to running backs
than any other squad, and no team has allowed more fantasy points
to opposing backs than the Falcons.
Passing
Game Thoughts: The Falcons annihilated the Texans last
week, but the blowout was actually somewhat detrimental to the
fantasy owners of Matt Ryan and Julio Jones, because the team’s
massive lead meant a downfield passing game was unnecessary. That
type of game is rare in the NFL though, and Ryan and Jones –
along with number two wideout Leonard Hankerson, who should have
been snared off the waiver wire – figure to contribute this
week as no-doubt fantasy starters against the Redskins.
Washington is 10th in the league in pass defense, but tied for
20th in touchdowns given up, and is one of only three teams which
have yet to record an interception. They have permitted the eighth-fewest
fantasy points in the NFL to quarterbacks and are in the middle
of the pack in points given up to tight ends, but just eight teams
have allowed more fantasy points to opposing wideouts.
Running Game Thoughts: The top-scoring
running back in fantasy right now is Devonta Freeman, and there
isn’t a soul in the world that saw that coming. He scored
three times on the ground last week and now has seven scores this
season, but that’s a pace he almost certainly won’t
keep up. Tevin Coleman (ribs) returned to practice on a limited
basis Thursday. If he’s able to play, he’ll cut into
Freeman’s workload but will remain behind Freeman in the
pecking order for carries.
Freeman is a threat as a receiver as well as runner, which makes
him even more valuable, and has to be in fantasy lineups this
week despite a poor match-up against the ‘Skins. Washington
has the NFL’s number two run defense, and they are tied
for second-fewest rushing scores allowed. No team has given up
fewer rushing yards to opposing running backs, and – predictably
– no team has allowed fewer fantasy points to players at
that position.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Jacksonville lost in overtime to Indianapolis
last week, but they did show some life for fantasy owners. Blake
Bortles had nearly 300 passing yards and a touchdown while avoiding
an interception, Allen Hurns had 116 yards and a score, and Allen
Robinson picked up 80 receiving yards. Bortles should continue
to be on waiver wires, but Robinson and Hurns are among the top-20
in fantasy scoring among wideouts, and have a place this week
in starting lineups, particularly those that utilize three wide
receivers, as they take on Tampa.
The Buccaneers are tied for third in the league in pass defense,
but are somehow tied for 27th in passing scores permitted. They
have allowed the 11th-fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks and
the fifth-fewest to tight ends, but have also given up the 13th-most
to wide receivers.
Running Game Thoughts: Along with
Bortles, Hurns, and Robinson, rookie T.J. Yeldon showed up last
week and ran for 105 yards on 22 carries. He is still averaging
just 3.7 YPC and has not crossed the goal line yet, but could
be a decent flex option this week against a Buccaneers team that
has struggled against the run. Tampa is 30th in the NFL in run
defense and tied for 19th in rushing scores surrendered. They
are one of just three teams to have given up at least 500 rushing
yards to opposing running backs, and have allowed the eighth-most
fantasy points in the league to opposing backs.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Jameis Winston threw four more interceptions
last week, and is now tied with Andrew Luck for the league lead.
He does have six touchdown throws and one more score on the ground,
so it hasn’t been all bad for the rookie or his fantasy
owners, but he’s still better off on fantasy benches than
in lineups. Winston does have a pair of wideouts who are fantasy-worthy
in Vincent Jackson and Mike Evans, though on a weekly basis Jackson
is more a WR3 with Evans the better bet to put up big numbers.
The second-year pro hasn’t caught a touchdown yet and this
week seems like a good time for that to happen as the Bucs face
the Jags. Jacksonville owns the league’s 26th-ranked pass
defense and is tied for 11th in passing scores permitted. They
have allowed the 12th-most fantasy points to quarterbacks and
are 16th in points surrendered to wide receivers, but have given
up the sixth-most points in the league to tight ends.
Running Game Thoughts: Doug Martin
had a game last week (106 rushing yards, one touchdown, 37 receiving
yards) that will undoubtedly make fantasy owners try and pick
him up, but the fact remains that he and Charles Sims are getting
about the same amount of playing time. That type of time-share,
along with Martin’s previous mediocre efforts, makes him
little more than a match-up based flex play, and this week against
Jacksonville is not the right match-up.
The Jaguars are fourth in the league in run defense and no team
has allowed a lower YPC average than Jacksonville.
But they have given up four rushing scores and a decent amount
of receiving yards to opposing backs, which is why they rank 16th
in fantasy points allowed to players at that position.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Tyrod Taylor has been better than anybody
could have expected, completing over 70 percent of his passes
with eight touchdowns to four interceptions while also being a
running threat. He’s fourth among quarterbacks in fantasy
scoring, and while it seems unlikely he’ll end the season
that high, fantasy owners should ride him while he’s hot.
Taylor has receivers to throw to, and though Sammy Watkins (calf)
may not play this week, and Percy Harvin has been decent, it’s
tight end Charles Clay that has helped fantasy owners most. He
is fourth at his position in fantasy scoring, and should be considered
a TE1 this week for his team’s match-up with Tennessee.
The Titans have the NFL’s top-ranked pass defense, and they
are tied for 11th in passing scores given up, though it should
be noted they had a bye last week. Still, they’ve been above
average in terms of fantasy points allowed to both quarterbacks
and wide receivers, but have allowed the fifth-most fantasy points
per game to tight ends.
Running Game Thoughts: LeSean McCoy
(hamstring) continues to be sidelined with an injury, and reports
are that Karlos Williams (concussion) could miss this week’s
game as well, which will leave the Bills’ running game in
the hands of Boobie Dixon and possibly newly signed Dan Herron.
The Mississippi State product has a very odd stat line this year,
with more touchdowns than rushing yards. Dixon has carried the
ball eight times, has zero yards, but one score.
If he does start, Dixon is probably worth a flex play in deeper
leagues based simply on the number of touches he’ll get,
but fantasy owners shouldn’t expect a whole lot against
the Titans. Tennessee is tied for fifth in the NFL in run defense,
tied for 11th in rushing scores allowed, and have given up the
11th-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing backs.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Marcus Mariota has been fantastic in his
very brief NFL career, and fantasy owners should be taking advantage.
He is fourth in fantasy points per game among quarterbacks and
that’s without doing much of anything on the ground (25
rush yds in 3 games). Mariota has a pair of fantasy-worthy targets,
starting with wideout Kendall Wright, who’s in the top-15
at wideout in terms of fantasy points per game. Tight end Delanie
Walker is the other pass-catcher in the fantasy mix, and he’s
11th in fantasy points per game at tight end.
All three of the aforementioned should be in starting lineups
for fantasy owners this week against the Bills. Buffalo is 29th
in the league in pass defense, and only the Chiefs have surrendered
more touchdown passes. Subsequently, they are tied for second-most
fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks while giving up the third-most
points to wideouts and 10th-most to tight ends.
Running Game Thoughts: The Titans
have a solid running game, but it’s anybody’s guess
as to which of their backs is going to be the one who gets the
carries. Bishop Sankey? Dexter McCluster? Antonio Andrews? Each
has had some success, and each figures to get some looks, which
makes the team’s running back situation a fantasy nightmare
and one to ignore this week as Tennessee takes on a Buffalo team
which has been stout against the run.
The Bills are third in the league in run defense and tied for
second in rushing scores allowed, with just one given up so far
this year. That type of stifling defense is why they have surrendered
the seventh-fewest fantasy points in the NFL to running backs.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Drew Brees is on his way out. I think it
will be a gradual process, one that we’ve been seeing for
about two years now, but it’s happening. The stats will
tell you Brees is still elite. Viewership of the game tells a
completely different story. Returning from a one week injury hiatus,
Brees completed 33 of 41 throws for 2 TDs and no interceptions.
Looks great. However, anyone who watched the game in its entirety
saw Brees make at least three awful throws that should have been
picked and another that was picked only to be nullified by a defensive
penalty. Furthermore, his stat line looked a lot more pedestrian
before the Saints’ awful kicker missed a 30-yard chip shot
to win the game in regulation, ultimately leading to the 80-yard
walkoff TD pass to C.J. Spiller. In Brees’ defense, he’s
clearly not 100% healthy and he doesn’t have much to work
with. Marques Colston is done. He’s not quite Andre Johnson
level done, but he looks slow and struggles to separate. The Brandon
Coleman hype train is now in reverse. The Brandin Cooks hype train
was out of control all offseason (I explained this in detail in
my 10 things I noticed article from the July mock). He’s
simply not a No.1 receiver. The conglomeration of these things
is what leads to Willie Snead being the Saints’ leading
receiver last week (before Spiller’s 80-yard score).
Next up for Brees & Co., the most overrated team in the league.
Not only did the Eagles allow Kirk Cousins to complete 67% of
his throws last week, they failed to force a turnover and let
Cousins march down the field to find Garcon for the game winning
TD. The Eagles are now in the bottom 10 in passing yards allowed
and their stock is continuing to trend downward. Brees traveling
to Philly is like a very stoppable force meeting a very movable
object. Both will do their best to let the other succeed.
Running Game Thoughts: “I’ve gotta get him more opportunities.”
– Sean Payton referring to C.J. Spiller. Well, Sean, you
failed. Yes, Spiller had a phenomenal line last week – 5
catches for 99 yards and a TD. You’d sign for that every
week if you could. But before Spiller broke my heart in overtime,
he had 4 catches for 19 yards and 2 rushes for 10 yards…the
entire game. Spiller played just 21 snaps. While that is his third
consecutive game with an increase in snaps played, it is still
not enough. Khiry Robinson is seeing the field way too much. One
particular instance he had no business on the field was after
Ingram’s TD was inexplicably overturned at the 6-inch line.
Many matchups were lost when Robinson vulture the TD. Robinson
took his other 6 carries for just 16 yards. Meanwhile, Ingram
continued his weekly improvement, taking his 17 carries for 77
yards. His ypc has increased every week. He was also effective
out of the backfield once again, grabbing 6 balls for 51 yards.
Between Ingram’s versatility and Spiller’s explosiveness,
there is no reason those two shouldn’t be splitting the
backfield 60-35 with Robinson limited to sporadic appearances.
Hopefully, both Ingram and Spiller’s performances earn them
increased snaps in this week’s game at the Eagles.
The Eagles sport one of the league’s best run defenses,
allowing a paltry 3.3 yards per carry to opposing rushers. Last
week, they contained Alfred Morris and completely shut down Matt
Jones. Where they struggled, though, was with shifty little Chris
Thompson. He took his 6 carries for 53 yards and caught 2 passes
for 24 yards. He’s the primary passing down back and he
was very effective. He is still nowhere near as talented as Spiller.
The Saints would be wise to take what the Redskins did effectively
and use their more talented backs to emulate it. It would not
surprise me to see both Ingram and Spiller have strong pass catching
days out of the backfield.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Sam Bradford finally did something for fantasy
owners, throwing for 270 yards and 3 TDs. Nevertheless, it is
still hard to trust him as a fantasy starter. He ranks in the
bottom 5 among qualified starters in completion percentage and
is averaging just 237 yards per game. The worst part about Bradford
is that no one has any idea who he is throwing the ball to each
week. Jordan Matthews saw 8 targets, but caught just 3 of them
for 50 yards. Yet again, the box score doesn’t show a full
picture. Matthews’ line would have looked much better had
Bradford not missed him after he torched the defense for what
would have been a 62-yard score. The very next play, Bradford
hit Riley Cooper on an identical play for the aforementioned 62-yard
score. Matthews will be fine. As for Bradford’s other two
TD recipients, Miles Austin and Brent Celek, you can continue
to ignore them. One encouraging piece of the Eagles offense was
Nelson Agholor. He made a nice 45 yard grab, which would have
been great had he not fumbled the ball on a reverse the next play.
I believe it is only a matter of time before he comes into value
(but not just yet). Hang onto him if you can.
This week, the Eagles passing attack gets the dreadful Saints
passing defense. The Saints still haven’t recorded an interception,
which is incredible when you consider the fact that they faced
Brandon Weeden last week and have already played the turnover
machine Jameis Winston. They are allowing a league high 9.8 yards
per completion, yet they face an average of just 27.5 pass attempts
against per game. Expect that number to rise with the Eagles fast
paced attack. Chip Kelly may be in the midst of a lost season
and possibly en route to losing his job, but he knows this Saints
defense can be thrown on. Expect him to do just that. If Bradford
doesn’t have a big game against the Saints, it may be time
to give up. I think he and JMatt fill up the stat sheet this week.
Running Game Thoughts: The Eagles’ running game is not
good for fantasy. In a game that was close throughout, DeMarco
Murray led the team with just 8 carries for 36 yards. After a
breakout performance against the Jets, Ryan Mathews saw just 5
touches for 20 yards. Darren Sproles saw 4 carries for 17 yards.
Neither Mathews nor Sproles caught a pass. All three of the Eagles’
TDs last week came through the air. That is unlikely to repeat
itself often, which means at least one of these backs will get
in. Which one? Your guess is as good as mine. The snap split last
week was 45%-39%-23% for Murray-Sproles-Mathews. The only bit
of information we can really glean from that is that Mathews’
performance against the Jets clearly did not earn him any significant
role. It would not surprise me if Chip Kelly went with the hot
hand approach for the foreseeable future.
I would not feel comfortable starting any Eagles running back
even against a Saints defense allowing 4.2 yards per carry to
opposing rushers. It appears as though the Saints’ run defense
isn’t very good either. (A Rob Ryan defense is bad? I’m
shocked…) The Saints have allowed 4 rushing TDs on the season,
which is an average of one per week. I expect that to continue.
The Eagles offense as a whole has shown glimpses of what it can
be. Eventually, it either has to happen or the dream has to come
to an end. Unfortunately, I don’t think this is the week
we get any clarity.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Allow me to paint you a picture. Angry Tom
Brady. Fresh off a bye. National television. Jerry World. You
think a week off calmed Brady down? It just gave him an extra
week to think about how Roger Goodell wanted to prevent him from
playing in this game. Through his first three games, Brady is
averaging (yes, AVERAGING) 370.7 yards per game). He’s also
thrown 9 TDs and joins Aaron Rodgers as the only QBs without an
interception. Brady is on pace to shatter Peyton Manning’s
single season passing yards record. Helping his cause is a Cowboys
pass defense that just gave up 359 yards to a past his prime Drew
Brees.
The Cowboys’ best attempt at stopping opposing offenses
has been to keep them off the field via the ground game. Unfortunately,
even if they succeed in controlling time of possession, they will
have no answer for Brady, Gronk, and Edelman. No one has been
able to stop Rob Gronkowski this year as he’s averaged 102.7
receiving yards per game and has one more TD (4) than games played
(3). Julian Edelman is tied for 6th in receptions despite playing
one fewer game than the five ranked ahead of him. The main concern
for the passing game is whether the TDs come via the air or the
ground. It’s not a huge concern, though, as there should
be plenty of scores to go around. It would not surprise me in
the least if the Patriots did not punt a single time this weekend.
Running Game Thoughts: Every week it’s the same story with
the Patriots’ running game. Who’s going to get the
ball this week? LeGarrette Blount was finally introduced in Week
3, plowing his way to 78 yards and 3 TDs against a hapless Jaguars
defense. The score certainly played a role in why he got increased
usage because I still believe this backfield belongs to Dion Lewis.
Lewis is averaging 10 carries per game and a tick under 5 yards
per carry. He also averages five more touches in the passing game.
He’s a versatile back that Belichick can line up behind
Brady, next to him in the gun, or out wide as a hybrid receiver.
He’s the type of player Belichick can create mismatches
with and that is why he will continue to be featured. If Belichick
didn’t believe in him, the Patriots wouldn’t have
signed him to a two year extension on Thursday.
Last week, the Cowboys struggled to stop both Mark Ingram and
C.J. Spiller in the passing game. They will struggle mightily
with Lewis. The Cowboys haven’t been bad at stopping the
run, ranking in the top 10 in both yards per game against and
yards per carry against. Belichick doesn’t care, though.
He just won’t run the ball much. Luckily, this does not
adversely affect Lewis as he is an integral part of the pass heavy
approach I expect to see again this week. Blount may siphon away
goal line carries, but Lewis is still the guy seeing the majority
of snaps.
Passing
Game Thoughts: For the longest time, the biggest concern
regarding viewership of this game was whether it would be competitive
or if Brady was going to be suspended. It is not without a bit
of irony that Brady is going to play after all, but the game still
won’t be competitive. The Cowboys’ passing game will
continue to be a nightmare for as long as Tony Romo is out. Reports
are he is progressing well and he should return when eligible
Week 11. That doesn’t help the Cowboys this week as they
once again look to Brandon Weeden to captain this sinking ship.
The NFC East is absolutely awful and the Cowboys likely would
have cruised to a division title had Romo not gone down. Weeden
hasn’t played poorly, but he just isn’t good enough
to carry this offense without any help. Contrary to public perception,
this Cowboys team is quite devoid of talent outside of Romo and
Dez Bryant. Even after Bryant went down, opposing teams still
had to respect Romo’s abilities in the passing game. Now,
they have Weeden throwing to the likes of Terrance Williams and
Devin Street. There are less than a handful of QBs that could
make that work and Weeden is certainly not one of them.
The Patriots’ pass defense has been decidedly average this
year, but part of that is due to the fact that they faced Ben
Roethlisberger opening night and then gave up a ton of yards to
Tyrod Taylor and Blake Bortles in garbage time. Expect a similar
game script this week as the Patriots go ahead early and continue
to not relent. This could very well be Weeden’s only 300-yard
passing game as the Patriots’ scoring prowess forces the
Cowboys to abandon the run and have Weeden toss it up 40-plus
times. It would also not surprise me if Weeden completely folds
under the pressure to keep up with the Patriots and turns the
ball over multiple times, culminating in Matt Cassel’s Cowboys
debut. Avoid all Cowboys not named Jason Witten or Joseph Randle.
Running Game Thoughts: Since Dez and Romo went down, the Cowboys’
most explosive offensive weapon was Lance Dunbar. Naturally, he
tore his ACL last week after his enormous stupidity ended with
enormous bad luck. Dunbar moronically brought a kickoff out of
the back of the end zone before going down at the 8-yard line
with a knee injury that everyone watching instantly knew was season
ending. Prior to getting hurt, Dunbar was the Cowboys’ most
effective rusher, taking 3 carries for 54 yards while Randle and
McFadden combined for just 57 yards on 21 carries. Joseph Randle
did find the end zone last week as he recklessly reached across
the goaline with one hand, praying that the ball crossed the plane
before he inevitably fumbled. Yes, he scored, but he has done
this previously and was instructed by coaches not to do it again.
The inability to listen to directions is not surprising to see
from a guy who was almost cut last year after he was caught shoplifting
a bottle of cologne and two-pack of underwear from a suburban
mall.
McFadden’s ineffectiveness combined with Dunbar’s
injury opened the door for Christine Michael to make his Cowboys
debut. Jason Garrett thought the ideal time for Michael’s
first carry was on a crucial third and short situation in the
latter stages of the game. Michael was predictably given the ball
and stuffed for a loss of one, forcing the Cowboys to punt. Although
he didn’t see another carry, expect Michael to mix in more
this week as the Cowboys seem to be coming to terms with the fact
that neither Randle nor McFadden is the answer at running back.
Michael may not be either, but he is way more talented than the
other two. The most likely scenario is Michael is just another
guy, but if you have room on your bench to stash a guy who maybe,
possibly is really talented and runs behind the best offensive
line in football, it’s not the worst idea.
Passing
Game Thoughts: I remember a conversation with a friend
of mine who is a Chiefs fan back in 2013. The Chiefs had just
acquired Alex Smith and he was quite elated after the string of
dismal QBs he had seen his team deploy. We had a heated debate
over the QB position. I was adamant that Colin Kaepernick was
significantly better than Alex Smith. Two years later it appears
I was wrong. Very, very wrong. There are 32 teams in the NFL (yes,
I know you all know this). Yet, somehow, Kaepernick ranks outside
the top 32 in QB Rating and passing yards per game. He has also
taken 14 sacks and most deplorably, thrown just 2 TDs against
5 INTs. To put his futility in perspective, he ranks dead last
in TDs among QBs that have started more than one game. The only
positive spin on Kaep’s performance is that as bad as he’s
been, he’s probably still better than Blaine Gabbert.
This week, Kaepernick heads out east to take on the Giants and
their No.32 ranked pass defense. Will it even matter? I’m
not sure if there’s a defense in the league that Kaepernick
can exploit. Kaepernick has been effective with his legs, rushing
for 195 yards on 33 attempts. It would behoove the 49ers to utilize
QB runs more because clearly Kaepernick throwing the ball hasn’t
been working out. The Giants’ pass defense, although very
beatable, forces turnovers. In addition to his affinity for interceptions,
Kaepernick has fumbled the ball a whopping 26 times over his last
49 games, losing 12 of them. This is a mistake prone QB facing
a defense that forces mistakes – a recipe for disaster.
Running Game Thoughts: Shameless self-promotion alert! If you
peeked back at my 10 things I noticed from the July mock article
regarding Brandin Cooks and scrolled down a bit, you’d find
the name of another player I was all out on – Carlos Hyde.
If you didn’t, I’ll save you the trouble. Here are
the first few sentences: “I am not a fan of Carlos Hyde.
I think he’s a very talented back in a terrible situation.
The 49ers are going to be bad this year. I’m talking really
bad…” Hyde certainly proved his talent Week 1 against
the Vikings, looking like he was ready to make me look quite foolish.
However, the 49ers are in fact bad. Really bad. Removing the complete
fluke that Week 1 appears to be, Hyde has caused nothing but frustration
for his owners expecting a big year. His Week 1 game inflates
his averages so for the sake of framing, I will mention that he
took 26 carries for 168 yards and 2 TDs and then leave it out
of the rest of the analysis. In his next three games, compared
to his week 1 performance, Hyde carried the ball 10 more times
total for 54 fewer yards (that’s 36 carries for 114 yards)
and 0 TDs. With 25% of the regular season in the books, perhaps
it’s time to call a spade a spade.
The past two weeks, I insisted that the Giants’ run defense
was not this good. Maybe, just maybe, it actually is. Now allowing
under 70 yards per game and just 3.1 yards per carry to opposing
backs, the Giants’ defensive prowess needs to at least be
acknowledged, if not respected when considering starting RBs against
them. Assuming the status quo remains and no one gets hurt, Adrian
Peterson in Week 16 is the only RB that you should be starting
against the Giants without even thinking about it. The 49ers will
try and establish Hyde early and likely fail. The Giants will
take a lead and Kaepernick will have to throw, just like the last
three weeks. Kaepernick will be terrible and Hyde won’t
get a chance. I do believe Hyde is a talented back and has a future
as a starting RB in both real and fake football, but this year
is going down the drain quickly, and it continues this week.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Eli Manning threw his first interception
of the 2015 season last week (just like I predicted!), but do
not let that damper what was an otherwise quality performance.
Manning finally had a high level fantasy outing, throwing for
215 yards and 3 TDs. He now boasts a 7-1 TD-INT ratio through
a quarter of the season. For a guy historically very turnover
prone, this is certainly encouraging. Eventually, Coughlin has
to realize the Giants’ running game is not effective and
let his QB loose. Right? Odell Beckham Jr. is clearly the Giants’
best player and the offense needs to revolve around him. Yes,
he saw 12 targets last week, which is fine when Manning only throws
35 passes. I’d like to see that pass-target ratio remain
constant even in games where the Giants have to throw 40-plus
times. Beckham had a quiet game last week as he was only able
to amass 38 yards on 5 catches. Manning’s 3 TDs went to
Dwayne Harris, who appears to be the Giants’ new slot receiver,
Rueben Randle, who did nothing other than score, and Rashad Jennings,
who took a short pass a long way for an impressive run after the
catch 51-yard TD.
The biggest concern for the Giants’ passing attack against
this 49ers defense is that the Giants still love to run and may
not have to throw much. The 49ers have not been competitive since
their Week 1 shellacking of the Vikings. Their performance against
the Cardinals was particularly dreadful, but last week’s
3 point effort against the Packers wasn’t much better. The
49ers have middling stats on defense, but have been prone to allowing
the big play. They’ve allowed 17 pass plays of 20-plus yards
and 5 of 40-plus yards. The Giants should control this game through
and through and not need to do much, but look for Beckham to make
a splash or two along the way.
Running Game Thoughts: The Giants’ running game continues
to be constricted by Tom Coughlin. After being incredibly productive
the first two weeks, Shane Vereen has been phased out of this
offense. He touched the ball just five times last week and once
again, caught no passes out of the backfield. Vereen can be ignored
in all leagues and probably dropped as well (I just dropped him
for Boom Herron and Thomas Rawls in two leagues). Evidently, no
amount of ineffective Andre Williams (3.3 ypc) can remove him
from the rotation. Jennings totaled 41 yards on 10 touches outside
of his long TD reception.
The odds are in favor of an Giant RB scoring each week, but you
will never be able to guess which one. It is best to ignore this
backfield for fantasy purposes even against a 49ers defense that
allows 4.1 yards per carry to opposing rushers and has allowed
114 yards per game against. They have allowed the second most
TDs on the ground (6), which is likely a product of always being
behind. I don’t expect the game script to change much this
week so a Giants back should get in but your guess is as good
as mine as to which one.
Passing
Game Thoughts: It’s been a tough start to the 2015
season for the Chicago Bears, but things are beginning to look
up as the team finally got their first win this past week over
the Oakland Raiders. Quarterback Jay Cutler returned from injury,
which was probably the biggest reason that the team was improved,
as Cutler threw for 281 yards and a pair of scores with one interception
in the win. He did this without the services of top wide receiver
Alshon Jeffery who hasn’t suited up since the team’s
Week 1 loss to the Packers. A hamstring injury has continued to
limit Jeffery’s practice time as he was still limited in
practice as late as Thursday of this week, but there appears to
be hope internally that he will finally be able to take the field
for this Sunday’s game against the Chiefs. If Jeffery is
unable to go, look for Cutler to primarily target wide receivers
Eddie Royal and Marquess Wilson in the passing game, with tight
end Martellus Bennett potentially leading the team for the second
straight week.
If there’s a time to take a chance on the Chicago passing
game, it might just be in Week 5 as the team heads to Kansas City
to face a Chiefs defense that has conceded the most fantasy points
per game to opposing quarterbacks so far this season. Kansas City
has already given up 11 passing touchdowns while intercepting
just two passes. It’s worth noting that the Chiefs have
played against the Packers and Broncos, but their other two opponents,
the Bengals and Texans, don’t exactly have elite level quarterback
play. If Jeffery can go, he could be in line for a nice day as
the Chiefs have truly been awful at slowing down opposing wide
receivers. In addition to giving up the most fantasy points to
opposing quarterbacks this far, Kansas City has also conceded
the most points to opposing wide receivers, including a whopping
10 receiving touchdowns to the position already.
Running Game Thoughts: When former head coach Marc Trestman left
in the offseason, many fantasy experts projected a steep decrease
in fantasy production for running back Matt Forte. Through four
games, however, those concerns haven’t come to fruition.
Forte has touched the ball at least 19 times in each of the four
Bears contests, including an impressive 29 touches during the
win over the Raiders this past week. Although he failed to find
the end zone with those carries, Forte’s fantasy owners
were happy with the 155 total yards that he produced. He has now
compiled a total of 500 total yards through the Bears’ first
four games of the season. Most running backs would not thrive
in a situation where their team is likely to be behind on a regular
basis, but Forte possesses the ideal combination of rushing ability
and pass-catching skills to be able to produce no matter the game
scenario.
This week’s contest against the Chiefs could be a fairly
difficult one for Forte and the Bears’ running game. Kansas
City was very good in keeping opposing backs in check prior to
their Week 4 contest against the Bengals when they conceded a
total of four touchdowns to the Cincinnati Bengals duo of Jeremy
Hill and Giovani Bernard. With that game likely being an aberration
with a high number of touchdowns, it’s very likely that
the Chiefs will get back to being the quality run defense they
have been for some time now. In fact, Kansas City only conceded
four rushing touchdowns during the entire 2014 season. Forte remains
a must-start no matter the opponent, but don’t expect a
repeat of what the Bengals did to the Raiders a week ago.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Kansas City quarterback Alex Smith is no
stranger to unique statistics, but this past week’s game
was a new one even for Smith. The Chiefs became only the sixth
team in the Super Bowl era to gain at least 450 total yards of
offense and fail to score an offensive touchdown. Smith himself
threw for an impressive 386 yards while adding 25 yards as a runner.
Only two Chiefs receivers, Jeremy Maclin and tight end Travis
Kelce, are fantasy relevant at the moment with Kelce’s numbers
fluctuating heavily so far this season while Maclin appears to
be heating up. Maclin caught a touchdown in Week 3 on eight receptions
for 141 yards and while he failed to get into the endzone in Week
4, his 11-catch, 148-yard performance was plenty enough to keep
a smile on his fantasy owners’ faces.
Maclin will hope to continue his impressive production when he
goes up against a Bears defense that has already conceded eight
touchdowns to the wide receiver position this season, second-most
in the league (only behind the Chiefs themselves). The Bears have
also conceded multiple passing touchdowns to three out of the
four quarterbacks they’ve played against, including this
past week when they gave up two scores to Derek Carr and the Raiders.
Smith himself remains a lackluster fantasy play at best, but Maclin
and Kelce remain two must-start fantasy players, at least for
the time being.
Running Game Thoughts: In a season with quite a few first round
running back disappointments, it has been the trusty Chiefs running
back Jamaal Charles who has been one of the most consistent producers
in fantasy. Charles has produced an impressive 14-or-more fantasy
points (standard scoring) in each of his first four contests.
He’s been able to accomplish this despite a 1-3 start to
the season for the Chiefs and back-to-back games where he’s
only taken 11 carries out of the backfield. Charles’ 20
receptions put him on pace for 80 on the season so he has been
able to remain a part of the Chiefs offense even in losing efforts.
A high floor makes Charles a must-start every week, but a matchup
against a bad Chicago defense might make him the very best running
back start in fantasy for Week 5. The Bears have already conceded
over 400 rushing yards this season and most of those have come
against teams that aren’t traditionally good at running
the football. With Kansas City primarily running their offense
through Charles, this should be a great opportunity for him to
continue or even expand upon the great start he’s had to
start the season.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Even the biggest Peyton Manning supporters
have to admit that things look a bit “off” for the
future Hall of Famer this season as he has now thrown five interceptions
in the first four games. While he does also have six touchdowns,
that number only puts him on pace for 24 on the season, which
would be lowest total of his career. His arm strength has certainly
been the biggest question but it really hasn’t affected
the fantasy production of his top two receivers, Demaryius Thomas
and Emmanuel Sanders, who have both been very productive. Their
touchdown totals leave a bit to be desired but Sanders has already
made 25 receptions this season and Thomas has made 33, which makes
both of them great fantasy assets, especially in PPR formats.
After a very quiet start to the season, veteran tight end Owen
Daniels has shown up with a touchdown in each of his past two
games.
In Week 5, Daniels has a great opportunity to make it three straight
games with a touchdown as he goes up against an Oakland Raiders
defense that has been monumentally horrible at containing opposing
tight ends. Oakland has already conceded a ridiculous 32 receptions,
388 yards and six touchdowns to tight ends so far in 2015. All
three of those numbers are most in the NFL. Surprisingly, the
Raiders have actually been fairly good against opposing wide receivers,
having held the position to the ninth-fewest fantasy points on
the year. Still, that is likely more of an anomaly than it is
the standard as Oakland has been terrible against opposing passing
games as a whole. They’ve given up the second-most passing
yardage in the league along with conceding two passing touchdowns
in each contest. The bottom line is the usual suspects in the
Denver passing game - Manning, Thomas and Sanders - can be started
with confidence. Daniels also has to be considered a must-start
for most rosters given the lack of the depth at the tight end
position this season.
Running Game Thoughts: C.J. Anderson was one of the hottest names
in fantasy football at the end of the 2014 season which led many
to believe that he would be exactly the same in 2015. That hasn’t
been the case, however, as Anderson has been one of the most disappointing
fantasy players so far. Anderson has not yet broken 50 rushing
yards in a game and is also yet to score a single touchdown. Meanwhile,
backup Ronnie Hillman has showed moments of big play ability as
he has already broken off two touchdown runs while out-rushing
Anderson by nearly 40 percent on four fewer carries. Still, the
Broncos coaching staff appears intent on getting the ball into
Anderson’s hands at least for the time being. They will
almost certainly increase the number of touches that Hillman gets,
but it would be hard to imagine Anderson completely going away
unless he continues at this pace for another three or four games.
This Week 5 matchup might very well be exactly what Anderson
needs to get things going. The Raiders’ pass defense has
really been their biggest problem, but they’re still 18th
in points per game conceded to opposing running backs this season.
Perhaps more importantly, Anderson had two monster games against
the Raiders in 2014. In Week 10, in his first game with more than
10 carries, Anderson went off for 90 rushing yards while adding
an additional 73 and a touchdown as a receiver. Things got even
worse for Oakland when Anderson ran all over them to the tune
of 83 yards and three touchdowns in Week 17. Needless to say,
if Anderson can’t get things going against the Raiders,
it might be time to really consider whether it’s time to
permanently bench the 2014 breakout tailback.
Passing
Game Thoughts: One of the more intriguing young fantasy
quarterbacks in the game, second-year Raiders starter Derek Carr
has gotten off to a great start in 2015. While his first game
was cut short due to injury, Carr returned in Week 2 and has since
put up a total of seven passing touchdowns with only two interceptions
in his three most recent games. Carr’s production has been
helped by the quick development of 2015 first round NFL Draft
pick Amari Cooper who already appears to be one of the best young
receivers in the game. In addition to Cooper, veteran Michael
Crabtree has also shown up and played a big role in the Oakland
passing game. The Raiders passing game appears to be clicking
at a great pace right now and while only Cooper was considered
to be much of a fantasy asset heading into the season, Carr and
Crabtree have now lifted themselves into the weekly fantasy starter
discussion.
Their biggest test so far, however, will come this week as the
Raiders host a Denver defense that looks like it might just be
the best unit in all of football. The secondary including Chris
Harris Jr. and Aqib Talib have been locking down opposing receivers,
but it has been the relentless pass rush led by Von Miller and
DeMarcus Ware that has really terrorized quarterbacks. The Broncos
have conceded just 6.8 fantasy points per game (standard scoring)
to opposing quarterbacks this season, by far the lowest in the
league, and they don’t look like they’re going to
be falling from that position anytime soon. While they’ve
been hot, the trio of Carr, Crabtree and Cooper take a big hit
this week against this red hot defense. Cooper is still being
targeted enough that he is unlikely to be removed from many fantasy
lineups for Week 5, but Crabtree and Carr should both probably
be sat in most formats.
Running Game Thoughts: Oakland has been looking for a quick but
strong running back for quite a long time and it appears that
they might have finally found it in Latavius Murray. If he can
stay healthy, there’s no reason why Murray couldn’t
contend to finish as a top 10 fantasy running back as early as
this season. Murray currently sits ninth among running backs in
total fantasy points and his usage has been quite encouraging.
In the two Raiders wins, Murray has touched the ball a total of
45 times. Meanwhile, in the Raiders’ two losses, Murray’s
usage has still been decent as he touched the ball a total of
36 times in those contests. A versatile player like Murray who
can remain on the field even on passing downs or when the team
is down late in the game becomes an even better fantasy asset
and that’s why Murray is being touted so highly by so many
different fantasy experts.
While there’s no doubting Murray’s skills, his Week
5 matchup against the Broncos is a situation that could put a
damper on what has otherwise been a nice start to the season.
While the Broncos’ run defense isn’t anywhere near
as good as its pass defense, the Broncos held Adrian Peterson
and the Vikings to under 100 yards on the ground and they previously
held the Lions’ running backs to just 29 yards on 18 carries.
Sure, Denver has given up four rushing touchdowns already, but
Murray owners really shouldn’t expect that. This could be
a very tough game for the Raiders, even at home, as the Broncos
have simply had their number in recent years. If Denver is able
to get off to an early lead, this might become a very pass-happy
Raiders offense and while Murray is certainly capable of contributing
in the passing game, his ranking does take a hit this week, at
least in standard scoring formats.
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Game Thoughts: A Roethlisberger-less Pittsburgh Steelers
offense will head into another game with Mike Vick behind center.
The former Pro Bowler did show some flashes of playmaking ability
during the Steelers’ Week 4 overtime loss to the Ravens,
but fantasy owners are certainly worried about the previously-consensus
top fantasy wide receiver, Antonio Brown. Brown made just five
catches for 42 yards in Week 4, a far cry from the nine-plus catches
for 145-plus yards that he had averaged through the first three
weeks of the season under Roethlisberger. Brown had previously
caught at least five passes for over 50 yards in each of his previous
35 games -- an all-time NFL record. Still, Brown was targeted
nine times on the night and actually dropped a would-be touchdown
on a somewhat difficult, but still very makeable catch in the
end zone. Those panicking on Brown should worry too much. The
return of second-year wide receiver Martavis Bryant, who will
be back after serving a suspension, should help with the Steelers
offense as a whole. While that might mean fewer total targets
for Brown, the quality of those targets should go up as Bryant
is used to stretch the field, leaving plenty of opportunities
for Brown to make plays underneath.
The Pittsburgh passing game does have an interesting matchup
in Week 5 as they head to San Diego to face the Chargers. San
Diego has been inconsistent against opposing quarterbacks this
season as they held Matt Stafford and Teddy Bridgewater in check,
but got lit up by Andy Dalton and Josh McCown. In fact, McCown
went off for 356 yards and two touchdowns just this past week,
nearly upsetting the Chargers in San Diego in the process. The
Steelers should have a better chance to put together a gameplan
that will work for Vick’s skills as they will have had almost
a week and a half to prepare for the Monday night contest. Look
for the Steelers offense to be improved as a whole which could
end up leading to a wild shootout with plenty of fantasy points
to be scored in San Diego.
Running Game Thoughts: As good as the Pittsburgh passing game
has been early this season, there’s no doubt that the coaching
staff and fellow players were ecstatic to get back Le’Veon
Bell after he was suspended for first two games of the season.
Since returning, Bell has been back to being the dominant back
who lit up the fantasy scoreboards in 2014, as he is already approaching
200 yards with two touchdowns on the ground while adding an additional
91 yards on 14 catches in the passing game. Bell might be the
most versatile back in all of football which makes him an unquestioned
RB1 while he’s healthy.
Bell should be in your lineup anyway, but his Week 5 matchup
against the Chargers is the kind of stuff that fantasy owners
should be drooling about. The Chargers have been humiliated by
opposing running backs already this season, including having already
allowed three running back units to rush for 100-plus yards. This
past week, an embarrassingly bad performance against rookie Duke
Johnson and the Cleveland Browns led to a 29-point fantasy day
for the Cleveland backfield and there’s little reason to
believe that the Chargers will have dramatically improved by the
time they face Bell and the Steelers. Needless to say, get Bell
in your lineup and lock him in. This has the potential for some
serious fantasy fireworks.
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Game Thoughts: Ever since coming into the NFL and being
selected behind Eli Manning, San Diego quarterback Philip Rivers
seems to have been playing with a chip in his shoulder. He continued
to do that this past week when he threw for 358 and three touchdowns
in a close win over the Browns. Rivers currently leads the NFL
with 1,249 passing yards through three games and he has also already
thrown eight touchdown passes, which is tied for fifth-most through
four games. What’s perhaps most impressive, though, is that
he’s done it without the services of his future hall of
fame tight end Antonio Gates. Gates now returns from his four-game
suspension and could immediately become a major fantasy asset
in an already thriving San Diego passing game. This could mean
less attention is given to wide receiver Keenan Allen who has
been one of the more impressive fantasy-related comeback stories
thus far in 2015. If Allen does see less coverage as teams try
to slow down Gates, look for Allen’s production to become
more consistent over the next few months and he could certainly
begin to develop into a must-start, elite fantasy wide receiver.
The Chargers’ passing game should be in line for a nice
day as they go up against a Pittsburgh defense that hasn’t
been very good so far this season. While they did hold Joe Flacco
and Nick Foles in check, the Steelers were lit up by Tom Brady
in Week 1 only to take more punishment by Colin Kaepernick in
Week 2. Rivers is still certainly capable of taking over a game
with his arm and his fantasy owners certainly have to be thrilled
with the production they’ve received out of him already
this season. Look for some more big numbers from Rivers and the
San Diego passing game here in Week 5.
Running Game Thoughts: It’s still believed that 2015 NFL
rookie Melvin Gordon will eventually be given the full-time starting
gig in Dan Diego, but for now the young back hasn’t done
much to prove that he should be ahead of Danny Woodhead on the
depth chart, let alone be a “feature back.” Woodhead,
who is known for being a dynamic playmaker in the passing game,
has more than doubled the fantasy point totals of Gordon in standard
scoring formats and the margin is even wider in PPR formats where
Woodhead’s 17 receptions can be further appreciated. Nevertheless,
this split of touches and snaps isn’t going anywhere and
that does hurt the fantasy value of both players as neither man
really possesses huge upside given the limited number of touches
they are likely to see.
The limited upside of Woodhead and Gordon might be even more
limited here in Week 5 as the will attempt to run against a Pittsburgh
defense that has been excellent against opposing running backs
so far this season. The Steelers are one of only two teams (Seattle)
who has not yet given up a single touchdown to an opposing running
back and prior to their Week 4 struggles against Justin Forsett,
they had held each of their first three opponents (New England,
San Francisco, St. Louis) to 70 or fewer yards on the ground.
Pittsburgh’s defense is certainly beatable, but it would
be surprising to see the Chargers come out with the intention
of running the ball when they know that the Steelers secondary
is so shaky. Expect to see more Woodhead than usual this week
as the Chargers try to implement a more pass-heavy offense. Gordon
might still be worth a look at Flex or as an RB3, but it’s
hard to trust him as much as Woodhead right now who is locked
in as a solid RB2 in all formats but especially PPR.
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