Colts at Titans
- (Smith)
Passing Game Thoughts: Andrew Luck
had one of his worst games as a pro last week during the Colts’
throttling at the hands of the Rams. He threw for 353 yards, but
that was because the team fell behind huge and all but abandoned
the running game. Luck tossed one touchdown but three interceptions
in the contest and was off-target all day. He is clearly struggling
to find a comfort level with a receiver outside of T.Y. Hilton,
who has become fantasy gold in the absence of Reggie Wayne, amassing
251 yards in his last two contests. Hilton will have a bigger
challenge than usual this week as the Titans have been very good
defending the pass.
Despite Tennessee’s loss to Jacksonville last week, they
continued to play the pass well, allowing only 180 yards with
two interceptions of Chad Henne. They are allowing the third-fewest
FPts/G to QBs, rank seventh in pass defense and are tied for fewest
passing scores surrendered. No team has allowed fewer FPts/G to
WRs than the Titans, though they are allowing the 10th-most FPts/G
to TEs.
Running Game Thoughts: It’s difficult to have thoughts on
something that doesn’t exist, but that is the challenge
I’m faced with in this segment. Trent Richardson has been
hideous in his time with the Colts, though it should be noted
he is running behind a below-average offensive line. Nonetheless,
he gained all of six feet on five carries last week against the
Rams, a team that has been sliced apart by most runners. Donald
Brown actually went backwards by one yard in his two carries and
neither is much of a fantasy option going forward, though don’t
count out a Richardson score against Tennessee.
The Titans are 16th in YPC allowed and 21st in run defense, but
gave up a pair of rushing scores last week and only the Jaguars
have allowed more scores on the ground than they have. Tennessee
has given up the fifth-most receiving yards in the league to RBs
and the sixth-most FPts/G to players at that position, having
yielded multiple rushing scores in each of their last four contests.
Projections:
Andrew Luck: 280 pass yds, 3 TD, 1 INT, 20 rush yds
T.Y. Hilton: 90 rec yds, 2 TD
Coby Fleener: 55 rec yds, 1 TD
Darrius Heyward-Bey: 35 rec yds
Griff Whalen: 30 rec yds
LaVon Brazill: 20 rec yds
Trent Richardson: 35 rush yds, 25 rec yds
Donald Brown: 20 rush yds, 15 rec yds
Passing Game Thoughts: Not only
did the Titans lose to Jacksonville last week, they lost their
quarterback, Jake Locker, for the rest of the year. Ryan Fitzpatrick
played well in relief, though many quarterbacks have looked good
when facing the Jaguars. His main target is Kendall Wright, who
has established himself as a legit WR2 or WR3 depending on match-up.
With Nate Washington disappearing recently, one player fantasy
owners should look to in the rest of the way is Delanie Walker,
who has 50+ yards and a touchdown in two of his last three contests,
though he could struggle this week against Indianapolis.
Though the Colts rank 19th in pass defense and ninth in touchdown
passes given up, they are trending downward fast. Indy has allowed
an average of 328 yards through the air in their last three games
with eight touchdowns and one interception and though one of those
games was against Peyton Manning, the other two quarterbacks they’ve
faced have been Case Keenum and Kellen Clemens. The team is 16th
in FPts/G allowed to QBs and they’re giving up the sixth-fewest
FPts/G to TEs, but the eighth-most FPts/G to WRs, with at least
one wideout gaining 138 yards against them in each of their last
three games.
Running Game Thoughts: I’m as confused by Chris Johnson
as the rest of the fantasy owners out there. After slicing through
the Rams two weeks ago, Johnson had yet another juicy match-up
against the Jaguars last week and promptly responded with a resounding
thud. He ran for 30 yards on 12 carries, marking the fifth time
in his last five games he’s been held to less than 40 rushing
yards. On the bright side, Johnson had 43 receiving yards and
continues to be involved in the passing game, though it would
be nice if he could find his form and add some rushing yards (or
even a touchdown) against the Colts.
Indianapolis continues to be solid against running backs, despite
being ranked 26th against the run. Many of those rushing yards
have been ceded to quarterbacks, including 100+ yards to both
Terrelle Pryor and Russell Wilson. As for RBs, the Colts are surrendering
the seventh-fewest FPts/G to players at that position and the
second-fewest receiving yards while allowing only two backs to
gain 85 or more yards all season.
Projections:
Ryan Fitzpatrick: 270 pass yds, 2 TD, 2 INT, 30 rush yds
Kendall Wright: 90 rec yds, 1 TD
Nate Washington: 50 rec yds
Delanie Walker: 35 rec yds
Justin Hunter: 30 rec yds, 1 TD
Damian Williams: 15 rec yds
Chris Johnson: 45 rush yds, 30 rec yds
Shonn Greene: 25 rush yds, 10 rec yds
Prediction: Colts 27, Titans 17 ^ Top
Falcons at Buccaneers
- (Smith)
Passing Game Thoughts: Matt Ryan
was supposed to be at least near the top-five fantasy quarterbacks
this season – needless to say, it hasn’t worked out
like that. Over his last three games, Ryan has only three touchdown
passes and seven interceptions, he ranks 12th in FPts/G for the
year, and the entire Atlanta offense has been a huge disappointment.
Roddy White’s return to health may jumpstart things, but
the wideout still caught only one pass for 20 yards last week
despite playing most of the offensive snaps. The good news for
those fantasy owners that have Ryan, White or Tony Gonzalez (toe)
on their rosters is that the Buccaneers have been prone to allowing
the opposition to produce through the air.
Tampa isn’t giving up a lot of yards through the air this
season, ranking 14th in pass defense and not allowing a 300-yard
passer since Week 2, but that’s where the good news ends.
They are tied with the Falcons for 26th in sacks, have allowed
multiple touchdown passes in each of their last four games and
five of their last six, and rank 22nd in the NFL in passing scores
allowed. The Bucs are giving up the ninth-most FPts/G to QBs,
though are in the middle of the pack in terms of fantasy points
allowed to receivers, having surrendered the 15th-most FPts/G
to wideouts but the 14th-fewest FPts/G to TEs. Editor’s
Note: Harry Douglas (knee) missed practice on Thursday so check
his status over the weekend before placing him in your lineup.
Running Game Thoughts: Steven Jackson’s
return to the lineup after missing time with an injury hasn’t
been the boon to fantasy rosters that many figured it would. In
his three games since suffering a Week 2 injury, Jackson has only
74 yards on 33 carries, an average of 2.2 YPC, and he still doesn’t
have a rushing touchdown. I have a hard time believing he won’t
scamper into the endzone at some point this season, and if anything,
he’s due, even against Tampa’s stout run defense.
If the Buccaneers hadn’t allowed the 12th-most receiving
yards (and three touchdowns) to running backs, they’d be
even stronger against opposing fantasy runners. As it is, the
team has yielded the eighth-fewest rushing yards and FPts/G to
RBs. They have allowed only one rushing score by a back all season,
are fifth in the league in run defense, sixth in total rushing
scores surrendered and eighth in YPC allowed.
Projections:
Matt
Ryan: 265 pass yds, 2 TD, 1 INT
Roddy
White: 75 rec yds, 1 TD
Harry
Douglas: 60 rec yds
Tony
Gonzalez: 55 rec yds, 1 TD
Drew
Davis: 20 rec yds
Darius
Johnson: 10 rec yds
Steven
Jackson: 70 rush yds, 1 TD, 15 rec yds
Jacquizz
Rodgers: 25 rush yds, 20 rec yds
Passing Game Thoughts: Rookie quarterback
Mike Glennon is by no means a fantasy stud, and in fact ranks
32nd among QBs in FPts/G. Yet he does not turn the ball over much,
which keeps his offense on the field and allows players like Vincent
Jackson to keep getting chances. Unfortunately, Jackson has done
little lately, with only five catches for 39 yards in his last
two games, but with the team’s utter lack of alternate receiving
options, mounting injuries in their backfield and a good match-up
this week, Jackson should be productive against Atlanta.
You have to hand it to the Falcons on one front when talking about
their pass defense – they’ve been consistent. Unfortunately
for them, I mean consistently bad. The Falcons have given up multiple
touchdown throws in all but one game this year, are 25th in pass
defense, 28th in passing scores allowed, 24th in interceptions
and 26th in sacks. This has led to plenty of fantasy success from
the opposition, and Atlanta is giving up the eighth-most FPts/G
to QBs, the seventh-most FPts/G to WR, and the 13th-most FPts/G
to TEs.
Running Game Thoughts: First Doug
Martin went down, then Mike James, so Tampa is now down to their
third and fourth options at running back. Fantasy owners have
likely gobbled up Brian Leonard and Bobby Rainey by now and though
neither will be helpful in the long term, Leonard should get some
flex plays this week based on nothing more than the amount of
touches he’ll get and the fact that the Falcons struggle
against the run.
Not only is Atlanta lousy against the pass, but they stink against
the run as well. They are 27th in the NFL in both run defense
and YPC allowed, but allow so many touchdowns through the air
that they are 12th in rushing scores surrendered. Still, the team
has given up the sixth-most rushing yards in the league to running
backs and the 13th-most FPts/G to players at that position.
Projections:
Mike
Glennon: 230 pass yds, 1 TD
Vincent
Jackson: 105 rec yds, 1 TD
Tim
Wright: 50 rec yds
Tiquan
Underwood: 35 rec yds
Brian
Leonard: 60 rush yds, 1 TD, 20 rec yds
Bobby
Rainey: 45 rush yds, 10 rec yds
Prediction: Falcons 24, Buccaneers
20 ^ Top
Cardinals at Jaguars
- (Smith)
Passing Game Thoughts: Carson Palmer
is an improvement over the sludge that Arizona put at quarterback
last season, but that’s not really saying a whole lot. He
hasn’t been an effective fantasy option however, ranking
35th at his position in FPts/G and failing to make Larry Fitzgerald
the premier option he once was. Fitzgerald leads the Cardinals
in catches, receiving yards and touchdowns, but is still outside
the top-25 fantasy wideouts points per game. Then again, it wouldn’t
be a terrible idea to put Palmer in fantasy lineups this week
and keep Fitzgerald as a starter considering they are playing
the Jaguars.
Jacksonville won last week, but still allowed 264 passing yards
and three total touchdowns (one rushing) to Ryan Fitzpatrick.
They are 13th in pass defense, but no team has fewer sacks, only
Green Bay has fewer interceptions, just five teams have allowed
more touchdown throws and no team has given up more rushing scores
to quarterbacks. Add it all up and you have a squad that has allowed
the third-most FPts/G to QBs despite giving up the 14th-fewest
FPts/G to WRs. But in covering those wideouts, they seem to be
forgetting about TEs, and have yielded more FPts/G to players
at that position than all but two other squads.
Running Game Thoughts: Andre Ellington
has gone from being an afterthought at the beginning of the season
to a legit fantasy option. He is more explosive and productive
with the ball than backfield mate Rashard Mendenhall, and a far
better receiving option. Fantasy owners shouldn’t hesitate
to make Ellington a RB2 this week due to his terrific match-up.
The worst run defense in the NFL belongs to the Jaguars who are
surrendering almost 25 more yards on the ground per game than
any other team. They’ve also given up more rushing scores
than any other squad and are 28th in YPC allowed. Predictably,
they have allowed the fourth-most FPts/G to RBs in the NFL.
Projections:
Carson
Palmer: 280 pass yds, 2 TD, 1 INT
Larry
Fitzgerald: 85 rec yds, 1 TD
Michael
Floyd: 65 rec yds, 1 TD
Andre
Roberts: 45 rec yds
Robert
Housler: 35 rec yds
Andre
Ellington: 80 rush yds, 1 TD, 30 rec yds
Rashard
Mendenhall: 40 rush yds, 10 rec yds
Passing Game Thoughts: Pretty much
all that fantasy owners need to know about Chad Henne is this:
among the 43 quarterbacks averaging more FPts/G than him are Josh
Freeman and Matt Cassel. Now that we’ve gotten past that,
it’s on to the very ordinary Jacksonville receiving corps,
though they do feature two fantasy-worthy players in Cecil Shorts
and Mike Brown. Shorts is the more appealing option, with 70+
yards in five games this season, but he has only one touchdown
and will struggle to add more, so expectations should be tempered
against the Cardinals.
Considering they have Patrick Peterson, it’s a bit of a
surprise that Arizona has struggled on pass defense this year,
ranking 20th in the NFL. They’re also 22nd in passing scores
given up and have been on the opposite end of some huge games
by quarterbacks. The Cards have allowed three touchdown throws
in two of their past three games, are yielding the 12th-most FPts/G
to QBs, the most FPts/G (and receiving yards) to TEs, but perhaps
because of that Peterson guy, are surrendering the 10th-fewest
FPts/G to WRs.
Running Game Thoughts: Maurice Jones-Drew
accumulated 74 combined rushing and receiving yards last week
to go with one touchdown in the team’s win against Tennessee.
He remains outside the top-30 in FPts/G at his position, hasn’t
run for more than 75 yards in a game this season and has a brutal
match-up against Arizona this week. I wouldn’t consider
him a fantasy option, except in a pinch due to injuries and/or
byes.
The Cardinals’ pass defense may have their troubles, but
their run defense is staunch. They are tied with the Jets for
fewest rushing yards allowed to running backs this season, rank
third overall in rushing defense and YPC allowed and fourth in
rushing scores ceded. Most importantly for our purposes, no team
in the league has surrendered fewer FPts/G to RBs this year.
Projections:
Chad
Henne: 195 pass yds, 1 TD, 2 INT
Cecil
Shorts: 65 rec yds, 1 TD
Mike
Brown: 50 rec yds
Ace
Sanders: 30 rec yds
Marcedes
Lewis: 15 rec yds
Maurice
Jones-Drew: 35 rush yds, 25 rec yds
Prediction: Cardinals 24, Jaguars
13 ^ Top
Raiders at Texans
- (Smith)
Passing Game Thoughts: Everyone
can agree that they don’t have Terrelle Pryor on their fantasy
teams for his throwing ability. He has just five touchdowns and
10 interceptions for the season and one touchdown and eight picks
in his last four games, but the fact that he has more than 500
rushing yards can make up for his poor showing through the air.
Unfortunately, he’s dealing with a knee injury that limited
his effectiveness on the ground last week and kills his fantasy
value. Pryor doesn’t have great weapons to throw to when
he does pass and though Denarius Moore can be effective at times,
he does not have a great match-up this week, even with the Texans
struggling. Avoiding Moore is probably best.
The Houston pass defense started off the season superbly, but
they’ve taken a step back in recent games. While still ranking
first overall in pass defense, they’re 16th in passing touchdowns
allowed, 22nd in sacks and 29th in interceptions. The Texans are
giving up the seventh-fewest FPts/G to QBs, but have allowed at
least 240 yards to opposing quarterbacks in each of their last
three games and multiple touchdown throws in two of those contests.
They’ve also allowed the 13th-fewest FPts/G to TEs, and
the fifth-fewest FPts/G to WRs, though no team has surrendered
fewer receiving yards to wideouts than Houston.
Running Game Thoughts: Darren McFadden’s
hamstring injury opened the door for Rashad Jennings, and he’s
burst through it. Jennings has 194 rushing yards and 93 receiving
yards in the last two games, along with one touchdown. McFadden’s
status for next week is unknown at this point, but with Pryor
hurting, Jennings will be the chain-mover on the ground for Oakland
and a solid RB2 against Houston.
The Texans are exactly average against the run, or so say the
numbers. They rank 16th in the 32-team NFL in rush defense, 17th
in YPC allowed, and 12th in rushing scores yielded. Houston is
allowing the 14th-fewest FPts/G in the league to RBs, hasn’t
allowed a back to gain 100 yards all season and hasn’t let
a back pick up at least 90 since Week 4 while also surrendering
the eighth-fewest receiving yards out of the backfield.
Projections:
Terrelle
Pryor: 180 pass yds, 2 INT, 35 rush yds
Denarius
Moore: 60 rec yds
Rod
Streater: 30 rec yds
Mychal
Rivera: 20 rec yds
Jacoby
Ford: 15 rec yds
Rashad
Jennings: 85 rush yds, 1 TD, 15 rec yds
Marcel
Reece: 10 rush yds, 20 rec yds
Passing Game Thoughts: Case Keenum
has been more than effective as Matt Schaub’s replacement.
In fact, he’s currently fourth among all quarterbacks in
FPts/G even though his sample size has been smaller than others.
Still, he’s made himself a starter for fantasy owners, and
maybe just as important has made Andre Johnson a top fantasy wideout
once again. Johnson has caught five of the six touchdowns Keenum
has thrown in his last two games, is fourth in the league in receiving
yards, and vaulted into the top-10 in FPts/G at WR. Johnson and
Keenum are clear fantasy starters this week against the Raiders.
Oakland drafted a cornerback in the first round last year because
their pass defense was broken and it has yet to be fixed. They
are 22nd in the NFL against the pass, 26th in passing scores allowed,
and 24th in interceptions. The Raiders have allowed the seventh-fewest
rushing yards in the league to QBs, but the 10th-most fantasy
points, having twice been thrown on for more than 400 yards, and
once been thrown on for seven touchdowns – by Nick Foles,
no less. A total of 11 different WRs have had games with at least
80 yards when facing the Raiders, and that’s helped contribute
to the fact that they are yielding the fifth-most FPts/G to players
at that position, though they’ve done better against tight
ends, having allowed only the 14th-most FPts/G to them.
Running Game Thoughts: Arian Foster
is gone for the year, leaving the running game in the capable
hands of Ben Tate. Unfortunately, Tate’s rib injury is proving
meddlesome and likely keeping him from being as effective as he
might otherwise be. Fantasy owners should still plug him into
their lineups at least at flex, as Oakland has proven to be tough
but not world-beaters against the run.
The Raiders have done an effective job against opposing running
backs all season, not allowing a 100-yard rusher until New York’s
Andre Brown crossed that mark last week. Oakland still ranks seventh
in the league against the run and in YPC allowed, but 17th in
rushing scores surrendered. They are in the middle of the pack
in terms of fantasy points ceded and currently rank 15th in FPts/G
allowed to RBs.
Projections:
Case
Keenum: 255 pass yds, 2 TD, 1 INT
Andre
Johnson: 90 rec yds, 1 TD
DeAndre
Hopkins: 75 rec yds, 1 TD
Garrett
Graham: 40 rec yds
DeVier
Posey: 25 rec yds
Ben
Tate: 65 rush yds, 1 TD, 15 rec yds
Dennis
Johnson: 15 rush yds
Prediction: Texans 21, Raiders 13
^ Top
49ers at Saints
- (Smith)
Passing Game Thoughts: Colin Kaepernick
threw for less than 100 yards last week in the 49ers’ loss
to the Panthers, continuing a string of games in which he has
passed for under 200 yards. In fact, he has just two games with
at least 200 passing yards all season, has almost as many games
without a touchdown pass (four) as games with (five), and is quickly
being relegated to back-up status on fantasy rosters. Kaepernick
is 25th at his position in FPts/G and while I realize he doesn’t
have a superior supporting cast, he did get Mario Manningham back
and still has Vernon Davis (concussion). The freakishly athletic
tight end is likely good to go this week and fantasy owners should
start him, but avoid all other San Francisco pass catchers versus
the Saints.
New Orleans continues to play excellent against the pass, and
most recently held Tony Romo to just 10 completions in a whitewashing
of the Cowboys. This was just a week after the Saints held Geno
Smith on eight completions and those numbers are one reason New
Orleans is third in the NFL in both pass defense and passing scores
allowed. They have surrendered the third-fewest FPts/G in the
league to QBs, the fifth-fewest FPts/G to TEs and the 12th-fewest
FPts/G to WRs.
Running Game Thoughts: While the
San Francisco passing game may be in shambles, Frank Gore continues
to pace the team on the ground and is posting yet another quality
season for fantasy owners. He’s a top-10 back in terms of
FPts/G, has at least 70 rushing yards in each game since Week
3 and has an excellent match-up this week, making him a legit
RB1 against New Orleans.
The Saints seem to have found a solution to their defensive woes
from 2012, at least when it comes to playing the pass. They still
have a ways to go with their run defense however, and are 23rd
against the run, 20th in rushing scores yielded and are allowing
the highest YPC average in the league. Yet, only three teams have
given up fewer receiving yards out of the backfield. With the
opposition often forced to throw, big days for opposing runners
are rare so Orleans is 16th in the league in FPts/G allowed to
RBs.
Projections:
Colin
Kaepernick: 175 pass yds, 1 TD, 1 INT, 40 rush yds
Vernon
Davis: 60 rec yds, 1 TD
Mario
Manningham: 45 rec yds
Anquan
Boldin: 40 rec yds
Frank
Gore: 105 rush yds, 2 TD
Kendall
Hunter: 30 rush yds, 10 rec yds
Passing Game Thoughts: There isn’t
much Drew Brees and the Saints can’t do in the passing game.
He threw four more touchdowns last week and trails only Peyton
Manning in the significant passing statistics. Brees gets everyone
involved, and if I had told you he would throw four touchdowns
to four different players, none of which would be Jimmy Graham,
it would be surprising, but not shocking. Of course, that says
more about Graham than anyone, who is the top fantasy tight end
in the league by a long shot. Brees also made Marques Colston
effective for the first time since September and though he and
Graham have a tough match-up with San Francisco, Graham should
never leave fantasy lineups and Colston is at least a WR3 now
that he’s healthier.
The 49ers are capable of giving up plenty of yards – with
three quarterbacks having thrown for 298 or more against them
this season, but they’re also capable of shutting down passing
games, and rank ninth in the league in pass defense. They’re
also fifth in passing touchdowns yielded and have allowed the
sixth-fewest FPts/G to QBs. San Francisco has also allowed just
a single 100-yard receiver since Week 1, is giving up the fourth-fewest
FPts/G to TEs and the seventh-fewest FPts/G to WRs.
Running Game Thoughts: Mark Ingram
ran for 145 yards and a touchdown last week against the Cowboys,
marking the first time in his career that he broke the 100-yard
mark. Hopefully fantasy owners see that for what it is –
a likely aberration – than a sign of things to come. History
has told us that Ingram is bound to disappoint and the better
fantasy options in the Saints’ backfield continue to be
Darren Sproles and Pierre Thomas.
San Francisco hasn’t been as good against the run as expected,
and even though they’re 12th in the league in rush defense
and 11th in YPC allowed, the 49ers are also 20th in rushing scores
given up. They’ve also allowed 90+ combined rushing and
receiving yards to six different backs, and when you add it all
up you have a team that has surrendered the 12th-most FPts/G in
the league to RBs.
Projections:
Drew
Brees: 350 pass yds, 3 TD, 1 INT
Jimmy
Graham: 95 rec yds, 2 TD
Marques
Colston: 60 rec yds, 1 TD
Kenny
Stills: 55 rec yds
Lance
Moore: 35 rec yds
Robert
Meachem: 20 rec yds
Pierre
Thomas: 60 rush yds, 1 TD, 30 rec yds
Mark
Ingram: 40 rush yds
Darren
Sproles: 25 rush yds, 45 rec yds
Prediction: Saints 31, 49ers 24
^ Top
Patriots at Panthers
- (Smith)
Passing Game Thoughts: Tom Brady
is coming off a bye one week after posting his best numbers of
the season: 432 yards and four touchdowns against the Steelers
in Week 9. Those numbers mask what has been a remarkably ordinary
year for Brady, who is 27th in FPts/G among QBs. Injuries to Rob
Gronkowski and Danny Amendola have impacted his play, so don’t’
count Brady out for the remainder of the season, but he has a
very tough match-up this week and anything close to a repeat performance
of what he did against Pittsburgh is unlikely.
When you allow a quarterback to throw for only 91 yards as the
Panthers did last week against Colin Kaepernick, people take notice.
The Panthers are currently fourth in the NFL in pass defense,
are tied for fewest touchdown throws allowed and most interceptions,
and are eighth in sacks. They still haven’t given up multiple
touchdown throws in a game and have allowed the fewest rushing
yards and FPts/G in the league to QBs. They’ve also given
up the 11th-fewest FPts/G to TEs, and only the Titans are allowing
fewer FPts/G to WRs than Carolina.
Running Game Thoughts: Stevan Ridley
has returned to fantasy prominence after an early absence, and
has scored at least once in each of his last four games while
rushing for 79 or more yards in three of those contests. He still
cedes some carries to LeGarrette Blount, but Ridley is clearly
the team’s top back and a fantasy starter every week. That
includes this week as even though Carolina is tough on opposing
backs, Ridley’s nose for the end zone is undeniable.
Not only is Carolina stifling the opposition’s passing attack,
they’re crushing their running attack as well. Only one
team has allowed fewer rushing yards per game than the Panthers,
who are also second in rushing scores allowed and ninth in YPC
ceded. Yet, they’re not allowing the fewest FPts/G to RBs
– just the fifth-fewest – because backs have accumulated
over 400 receiving yards against them, which is seventh-most in
the NFL.
Projections:
Tom
Brady: 255 pass yds, 2 TD, 1 INT
Rob
Gronkowski: 90 rec yds, 1 TD
Danny
Amendola: 65 rec yds, 1 TD
Aaron
Dobson: 40 rec yds
Julian
Edelman: 25 rec yds
Stevan
Ridley: 65 rush yds, 1 TD
LeGarrette
Blount: 30 rush yds
Brandon
Bolden: 10 rush yds, 25 rec yds
Passing
Game Thoughts: Cam Newton isn’t having a particularly
fantastic season in any sense, but he is a top-10 fantasy quarterback,
and a strong threat to do damage on the ground. His receiving
corps does not benefit from the team’s run-first philosophy,
with none of the team’s wideouts among the top-40 in terms
of FPts/G. It’s tough to foresee anything but the status
quo this week for Newton, Brandon LaFell, Steve Smith and Greg
Olsen, which means they should be on the outside of fantasy lineups
looking in.
New England allowed 400 passing yards and four touchdowns to Ben
Roethlisberger in their last game, but they had a big lead and
forced the Steelers to throw, so the numbers are a bit misleading.
And though the Patriots have faced a number of ordinary quarterbacks
(Josh Freeman, EJ Manuel, Ryan Tannehill, Geno Smith – twice),
they did hold Drew Brees to 236 yards and two scores and for the
season rank 12th in pass defense, ninth in passing scores allowed,
fifth in interceptions, and eighth in sacks. They are allowing
the 13th-fewest FPts/G to QBs, are 15th in FPts/G allowed to WRs,
and have given up the 10th-fewest FPts/G to TEs.
Running Game Thoughts: Jonathan
Stewart has returned from injury, and predictably is the team’s
top back once again. He effectively killed off Mike Tolbert’s
fantasy value and knowing who is going to be the team’s
top rusher between Stewart, Newton and DeAngelo Williams is anybody’s
guess. I’ve long stayed away from the frustrating timeshare
in the Carolina backfield, but suppose if there were one back
I’d turn to, it’d be Stewart, though hesitantly so,
even against the below average New England rush defense.
The Patriots have had their share of difficulty to say the least
against opposing running games, and rank 30th in rush defense
and 22nd in YPC allowed for the season. They’ve surrendered
only four rushing touchdowns, which is sixth in the league, yet
have allowed the 11th-most FPts/G and 10th-most receiving yards
to RBs. New England consistently gives up yards to runners, with
seven backs gaining at least 50 rushing yards against them in
their last five games.
Projections:
Cam
Newton: 200 pass yds, 1 TD, 1 INT, 40 rush yds, 1 TD
Brandon
LaFell: 65 rec yds
Steve
Smith: 45 rec yds, 1 TD
Greg
Olsen: 35 rec yds
Ted
Ginn, Jr.: 20 rec yds
Jonathan
Stewart: 55 rush yds, 1 TD, 15 rec yds
DeAngelo
Williams: 35 rush yds, 10 rec yds
Mike
Tolbert: 15 rush yds
Prediction: Patriots 24, Panthers
21 ^ Top
Vikings @ Seahawks
- (Caron)
Passing Game Thoughts: One of the
most confusing and most despicable quarterback situations has
continued to unravel in Minnesota this season. Christian Ponder
would be the starter if he was not injured, but a dislocated left
shoulder in last Sunday’s win over the Redskins has his
status in question. As such, the Vikings haven’t yet named
a starter as of Thursday, only noting that it will either be Ponder
or Matt Cassel. Ponder himself has said that the shoulder feels
better than he expected it to, and he was already planning on
playing, so chances are good that we will see him back in the
starter role in Week 11. Those looking for a desperation play
at quarterback may look toward Ponder, who is coming off of his
first multi-touchdown passing day of the season. Don’t be
overly confident with him, but Ponder has looked better in recent
weeks. What hasn’t been so good, though, is the help he
has around him. With 2012 Pro Bowler Kyle Rudolph still expected
to be out another month-or-so, veteran John Carlson stepped up
this past week into the starting tight end role in impressive
fashion. Carlson led the team when he caught seven passes for
98 yards and a touchdown in the win over Washington.
Carlson won’t have it so easy this week as he goes up a
superb Seattle defense that has allowed just three touchdowns
to opposing tight ends this season and only one game of over 65
yards to the position. Carlson has always been a reliable short-yardage
pass catcher, but he has never really turned it into much fantasy
relevancy. Don’t expect that to change with the likes of
Christian Ponder or Matt Cassel behind center. Other receivers
in the Minnesota offense have continued to struggle as neither
Jerome Simpson nor Greg Jennings has gone over the 60-yard mark
or scored a touchdown since their Week 4 dual-breakout. Simpson
is expected to play in Week 11 despite an arrest earlier this
month for suspicion of drunk driving. Simpson was suspended for
the first three games of the 2012 for a similar offense and his
punishment could come down any day. Perhaps the only player with
any fantasy intrigue at all in this passing game is rookie wideout
Cordarrelle Patterson, who was on the field for nearly 40 percent
of the Vikings’ offensive snaps a week ago; his highest
total of the year. Patterson is a dynamic playmaker who scored
his first receiving touchdown against the Redskins in Week 10
and whose 6’2”, 220 lb frame makes him the team’s
best red zone passing target going forward. He has also scored
twice in the return game this season, which is a potential added
bonus. Patterson’s value is limited to a WR4 or very low-end
FLEX option for most leagues, but he does make for an intriguing
option for those leagues that score return yardage. All of the
Vikings pass-catchers will have trouble against a Seattle defense
that ranks third in the league in shutting down opposing wide
receivers this season. The Seahawks have only allowed six receivers
to score against them all season and they’ve only allowed
one team’s receivers to score more than once. As has been
the case most weeks, it’s going to be tough to trust any
member of the Minnesota passing game in your fantasy lineup.
Running Game Thoughts: Although he “only” rushed
for 75 yards against the Redskins in Week 10, fantasy owners had
nothing to complain about as the consensus top overall pick in
the preseason as Adrian Peterson gave his owners their third two-touchdown
performance on the ground. Peterson may not be the No. 1 scoring
back in the league this season but he has been elite producer
almost every single week and would still likely be the top-drafted
back in most scoring formats if we were redrafting today. Peterson
has been an absolute animal on a team that has struggled in just
about every other facet of the game. He has now rushed for at
least one touchdown in three straight games and has averaged over
112 total yards per game during that stretch. In Week 11, he’ll
have an interesting test against a Seattle defense that has been
shaky against the run as of late.
Unlike many of the other top teams in the league, Seattle hasn’t
exactly been blowing out their opponents, which has allowed teams
like Tampa Bay, St. Louis and Houston to all run the ball with
some effectiveness. In those three games, the Seahawks allowed
a combined 497 rushing yards while each team ran the ball 33-plus
times. If and when Adrian Peterson gets that kind of a workload,
he has shown time and time again that he can do some serious damage.
Peterson ran for 182 yards and two scores the last time he played
Seattle back in Week 9 of the 2012 season—his best fantasy
performance of the season. Certainly Seattle will be focused on
slowing down the reigning NFL MVP, but stacking eight or nine
men in the box has not necessarily slowed Peterson down in the
past. Although this looks like a tough matchup at first glance
due to the hype that the Seattle defense gets, there is no reason
for fantasy owners to begin making rash decisions. If he is on
your team and suits up, Adrian Peterson needs to be in your weekly
fantasy lineup each and every week.
Projections:
Christian Ponder: 160 pass yds, 1 TD, 1 INT, 20 rush yds
Adrian Peterson: 110 rush yds, 1 TD, 10 rec yds
Cordarrelle Patterson: 40 rec yds, 1 TD
Greg Jennings: 35 rec yds
Jerome Simpson: 30 rec yds
John Carlson: 30 rec yds
Passing
Game Thoughts: After saving the day for fantasy owners
with some impressive rushing performances that made up for some
ugly passing days earlier this season, Seahawks quarterback Russell
Wilson appears to be finding his groove again. He has now thrown
multiple touchdown passes in four straight contests—nine
total during that stretch—and has thrown just two interceptions
since Week 5. Wilson has been playing behind a patchwork offensive
line that has played terribly, causing him to take significantly
more hits as of late than he had prior to the injuries. Three
of the linemen are considered possibilities to return to the lineup
this week, including offensive tackles Russell Okung and Breno
Giacomini, along with center Max Unger, which should give Wilson
more time to get things done. In addition to the offensive line
coming together, Wilson is also expected to get his first opportunity
to play with the team’s biggest offseason acquisition, Percy
Harvin, who has missed the first 10 weeks of the season with a
hip injury. Harvin has been practicing for weeks and appears ready
to suit up against his former team, the Minnesota Vikings, who
are currently the NFL’s second-worst defense in allowing
fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks.
The Vikings have allowed multiple passing touchdowns in eight
of their first ten games this season. Minnesota hasn’t held
an opposing quarterback to under 200 yards passing yet this year
and even though Wilson is averaging just 213 yards per game, he
seems to be almost a lock for a solid fantasy day against this
terrible defense. With Sidney Rice on the IR, it has been the
team’s other receivers including Golden Tate, Doug Baldwin
and even Jermaine Kearse who have stepped up in a big way. Tate
is coming off of a six catch, 106-yard and a touchdown performance
a week ago, while Doug Baldwin has back-to-back games of 75-plus
yards receiving and Kearse has scored his third and fourth touchdowns
of the year over his past two contests. With Harvin coming back,
expect Kearse to be the player who sees his value impacted the
most. Although Harvin’s game most accurately mirrors that
of Golden Tate among the group, the Seahawks would be hard pressed
to sit Tate just to get Harvin on the field when they are down
a player like Sidney Rice. Harvin will likely be on some sort
of a snap count which will limit his upside but the “revenge
against former team” angle cannot be overlooked in this
one. Harvin is a boom-or-bust WR3 option in Week 11. The most
likely player to continue his fantasy success seems to be Golden
Tate, who has been the team’s top-scoring receiver so far
in 2013. Tate has only caught fewer than three passes in one game
so far and currently finds himself on pace to catch roughly 65
balls on the year. While those numbers aren’t spectacular,
they do make him a low-end WR3 option and he is riding a bit of
a hot streak with two games of 90-plus yards and three total touchdowns
over this past three games. While Baldwin and Kearse are both
likely to see the field some and make a few catches, neither player
has shown that they are very consistent and should only be in
fantasy lineups in very deep leagues.
Running Game Thoughts: An ugly Week 8 performance against the
Rams is now a thing of the past as Marshawn Lynch has had his
best two rushing performances of the season over his past two
games. Lynch continues to be one of the most consistently excellent
producers in the league and has now been in double-digit fantasy
production (standard scoring) in 12 of his past 15 regular season
games. Better yet, Lynch has been doing this with a banged up
offensive line in front of him. Lynch is a yards-after-contact
juggernaut who can do serious damage when he gets to the second
level. With three of his five starting offensive linemen in consideration
to return this week, things could conceivably get even better.
The Vikings have allowed the sixth-most fantasy points to opposing
running backs this season and have allowed two games of 140+ rushing
yards to the Packers and Redskins over their past three contests.
Minnesota has allowed 13 or more fantasy points (standard scoring)
in seven of their first nine games this season and have averaged
allowing 19.2 points to the position on the year. When these two
teams played back in 2012, Lynch put up 150 total yards and a
touchdown. With Lynch running as hard as anyone in the league,
the Vikings playing badly on defense, and the Seahawks offensive
line finally getting healthy, this could be the recipe for a big
fantasy day. Proudly insert Lynch into your starting lineup as
usual.
Projections:
Russell Wilson: 225 pass yds, 2 TD, 30 rush yds
Marshawn Lynch: 85 rush yds, 2 TD, 10 rec yds
Golden Tate: 70 rec yds, 1 TD
Doug Baldwin: 50 rec yds
Percy Harvin: 40 rec yds, TD
Jermaine Kearse: 25 rec yds
Prediction: Seahawks 31, Vikings
17 ^ Top
Chiefs @ Broncos
- (Caron)
Passing Game Thoughts: Kansas City
fans are hoping that an extra week off due to the bye week will
allow quarterback Alex Smith to get into better rhythm with his
receivers as they head into their biggest game of the season.
Despite a spotless record, Alex Smith simply hasn’t been
producing for fantasy owners. Despite preseason expectations that
he would be one of the better QB2’s in the league, Smith
has barely even been that. While he’s currently ranked as
the No. 13 quarterback in standard scoring formats, he has had
three games of 8 or fewer fantasy points in his previous five
contests. Worse yet, Smith has failed to throw a touchdown in
four of his past five games. If the Chiefs hope to stay in this
game, they’re going to need Smith to show up. They’re
also going to need their top receiver, Dwayne Bowe, to prove that
he’s still a high quality receiver (no pun intended). For
as bad as Smith has been recently, Bowe has been even worse. Only
his woes have lasted all season. Bowe is yet to hit the 70-yard
mark as a receiver. He has also only scored twice on the year
and hasn’t been in the end zone since Week 4. Unfortunately
for Chiefs fans, there really hasn’t been anyone stepping
up in Bowe’s absence in the passing game. Donnie Avery had
a few nice games earlier in the year, but has not even had 35
yards receiving in any of his past four contests. He has not scored
a touchdown since Week 1. The big play receiver in this offense
has actually been the team’s best return man, Dexter McCluster,
who has 13 catches in his past three contest. Still, McCluster
is as inconsistent as they come and certainly capable of going
catchless even against this less-than-stellar Denver defense.
The Broncos have certainly struggled against opposing quarterbacks
this season, most notably when they went up against Tony Romo
a few weeks back. Since that awful five touchdown-allowed performance,
however, the Broncos have allowed just five total passing touchdowns
to opposing quarterbacks in their past four games combined. Lots
has been made about the Chiefs getting after Peyton Manning, but
with Von Miller finally getting back into form and likely to be
lined up against Chiefs rookie tackle Eric Fischer, Kansas City
could be in trouble. Fischer has struggled against lesser players
and the reigning NFL Defensive Player of the Year will have an
opportunity to do some serious damage. It’s tough to trust
anyone in this Kansas City passing game due to the playcalling
in the Chiefs offense, but Smith could attempt more passes in
this game than any other he plays in this season. Given that,
he’s likely a mid-level QB2. Unfortunately, no one else
in this passing offense is really worth trusting with a fantasy
roster spot at this point.
Running Game Thoughts: If there has been one constant in the
Chiefs offense this season, it has been the excellent play of
running back Jamaal Charles who continues to prove why he was
well worth a first round fantasy football draft pick this off-season.
Charles had been over 100 total yards in every game prior to his
most recent game against the Bills. In that game, he fell four
yards shy of 100, but who’s going to complain about that?
He’s always been a very good pass catcher, but his success
as a receiver has been even more impressive in 2013. He’s
currently on pace for 84 receptions for 692 yards. It goes without
saying that this makes him one of the most valuable players in
PPR formats, but Charles is still the top scoring fantasy running
back in standard scoring formats. The Chiefs will need to lean
heavily on Charles once again as they hope to move the ball down
the field to keep the Broncos’ high-octane offense off the
field, so expect him to get plenty of touches both as a runner
and as a receiver out of the backfield.
Charles will be looking to do better in 2013 than he did in
2012 against this Denver defense when he ran for a total of 160
total yards his two contests against the Broncos. One thing that
fantasy owners should be aware of is that Denver does have a few
linebackers, such as Danny Trevathan, who have the skills to closely
cover running backs in the passing game out of the backfield.
Charles caught only one pass in his two games against the Broncos
a season ago. Of course, this is a vastly different offensive
system, but Charles may have more trouble than usual. Still, Charles
remains an absolute must-start no matter the format and will remain
so for the foreseeable future.
Projections:
Alex Smith: 180 pass yds, 1 TD, 1 INT, 25 rush yds
Jamaal Charles: 90 rush yds, 1 TD, 45 rec yds
Dexter McCluster: 50 rec yds, 1 TD
Dwayne Bowe: 40 rec yds
Donnie Avery: 35 rec yds
Passing
Game Thoughts: The most talked about game in the NFL this
week centers around Broncos quarterback Peyton Manning and his
injured ankles. Manning, who has not missed any playing time,
has battled a few minor injuries throughout the year and has missed
some practice time this week. Hall of Fame quarterback Steve Young
even suggested that Manning sit this week and rest his body for
a playoff run. As of right now, however, there are no reports
that Manning will heed Young’s advice and sport a headset
over a helmet this weekend. A win will mean that the Broncos take
back the lead in the AFC West, and there’s just no way that
Peyton Manning is going to let that opportunity go by. Manning
and the Broncos will be up against a Kansas City defense that
has been unbelievable this season. The Chiefs haven’t allowed
more than 17 points in any game this season.
While they have not exactly played against a world class group
of quarterbacks in recent weeks, there is no denying that this
defense is the reason that Kansas City is the lone team remaining
with a perfect record. No team has better weapons in their passing
game than the Broncos and this will unquestionably be the biggest
test of the season for the Chiefs defense. Rumors around the Kansas
City camp are that Eric Decker could be shadowed quite a bit by
safety Eric Berry. Although he is a big, strong and fast safety,
this could be a net win for the Broncos overall. Decker has 3”
and weight on Berry. Current reports are that cornerback Brandon
Flowers will see a lot of action against the NFL’s leading
touchdown scorer at the wide receiver position, Wes Welker. Welker
has been integrated seamlessly from the New England offense to
the Denver offense and he and Peyton Manning are already one of
the very best duos in the league. Meanwhile, Flowers has struggled
at times this season. We’ve seen him take a beating from
the likes of Dez Bryant and although Welker is not the physically
imposing force that Bryant is, he is perhaps the best route-runner
in the league and Flowers is just getting his feet wet covering
slot receivers. If this is the matchup, Welker could still produce,
but he won’t likely have a huge game. If Berry is on Decker
and Flowers is on Welker, that would likely mean that wide receiver
Demaryius Thomas will be covered by cornerback Sean Smith. Smith
has had his moments this year, but this would certainly be his
most difficult test of the season. All three Broncos wide receivers
are must-starts as usual, as is tight end Julius Thomas. Thomas
is still nursing a sore ankle, but had no problem breaking off
a 74-yard touchdown a week ago, proving that he can still outrun
defenses. With an extra week to heal, one has to believe that
Thomas could be in for another nice day. The only potential problem
for Thomas’ fantasy owners is that the Chiefs have been
so good against opposing tight ends this season. They’re
the only team that has not allowed a single touchdown to the position
yet this season and only one team (CLE) has even cracked 50 yards
receiving against this defense. Still, given Thomas’ skills
and the relative lack of depth at the tight end position this
season, it’s hard to believe that fantasy owners have better
options than Thomas heading into Week 11. Place him in your lineup
as usual, but do so with the understanding that this might be
a “down” week for one of 2013’s biggest breakout
players.
Running Game Thoughts: Broncos running back Knowshon Moreno
continued with his surprising return-to-glory season this past
week when he put together an impressive 114 total yard performance
in Denver’s win over San Diego. Moreno has now gone over
100 total yards in back-to-back games and it is his usage in the
passing game that has been so helpful in fantasy circles. He has
made 29 catches over just this past five games alone. Those in
PPR formats have really appreciated Moreno’s receptions
as he has been a surprising contributor in that scoring system,
but even non-PPR fantasy owners have loved what they’ve
been getting from Moreno. The Broncos tailback has hit double
digit fantasy point totals (standard scoring) in each of his past
six games, making him one of the most consistently productive
players in all of fantasy football.
This may be the toughest challenge he faces all season, however,
as he goes up against a Kansas City defense that has done very
well against opposing running backs. The Chiefs have held opposing
running backs to fewer than 70 yards on the ground in six of their
first nine contests. There is some light at the end of the tunnel,
however, as they have allowed 86, 165 and 214 rushing yards in
the other three games. Most recently, Kansas City struggled mightily
to slow down the Bills when C.J. Spiller and Fred Jackson combined
to run the ball 34 times for 214 yards, also adding an additional
61 yards in the receiving game. Moreno doesn’t have quite
the dynamic playmaking ability that Spiller does but it’s
going to come down to opportunity in this one. With Peyton Manning
still hobbled a bit with sore ankles, the Broncos could certainly
run the ball 20-plus times in this contest. Although Kansas City
has mostly been good against the run this season, it’s hard
to bench a player like Moreno who has done nothing but produce.
Put him in your lineup as usual as a low-end RB1, high-end RB2.
Projections:
Peyton Manning: 310 pass yds, 3 TD, 1 INT
Knowshon Moreno: 50 rush yds, 1 TD, 25 rec yds
Eric Decker: 80 rec yds, TD
Demaryius Thomas: 75 rec yds, 1 TD
Wes Welker: 60 rec yds, 1 TD
Julius Thomas: 50 rec yds
Prediction: Broncos 31, Chiefs
20 ^ Top
Jets at Bills
- (Thorne)
Passing
Game Thoughts: There are 16 teams in the NFL with non-losing
records and only two of those teams have a negative point differential
on the year, one of which is the Jets. Despite being above .500
and going 2–1 in the division, New York has the sixth worst
point differential in the league and has alternated wins and losses
for the entire season up until their bye in Week 10. The team
tends to go as their talented but inconsistent rookie quarterback
goes, which isn’t surprising by any means but plays out
rather predictably when results are compared to statistics. In
games where Geno Smith threw at least as many touchdowns as interceptions
the Jets won; in those victories he has seven TDs and four INTs.
In the losses he has thrown more picks than scores by a total
of nine to one. As a rookie Smith isn’t yet able to have
his play overcome some of the mistakes he makes through inexperience,
and this inconsistency has led the Jets toward the bottom of team
passing rankings with only 202 yards per game. Not helping Smith's
situation any is an offensive line that has surrendered 31 sacks
on the year, tied for fourth worst in the league. At any rate,
New York has not seen anyone step up to fill the No. 1 wide receiver
void left by the injured Santonio Holmes, ultimately capping the
upside of Smith regardless of how well he plays during any particular
week.
Despite losing three straight, Buffalo has still been able to
do what they do best, pressuring the quarterback and recording
sacks; they have ten in the last three games and 33 on the season,
which is second best in the league. That pressure has also led
to interceptions, of which they have 13, tied for best in the
NFL. Other defensive statistics are far less impressive, as the
Bills have a high-risk/high-reward philosophy when it comes to
slowing down the passing game. They give up 239 yards per game
and 7.1 per attempt, both of which rank right in the middle of
the pack, and the 21 touchdowns they’ve surrendered this
season are tied for worst. Their defensive schemes combined with
the Jets' offensive inconsistencies pave the way for three entirely
different scenarios: everything goes the Jets' way, everything
goes the Bills' way, or the inconsistencies balance out and the
game stays incredibly close. Based on the win-one-then-lose-one
pattern, New York is arguably due for a defeat, and seeing how
Buffalo creates pressure while the Jets give up plenty of sacks,
the most likely outcome for Sunday is that Smith will be forced
into mistakes and the aerial attack will be grounded because of
it.
Running Game Thoughts: Even with the inconsistencies of their
passing attack, the Jets have generally been able to rely on production
from the ground game, and in several instances this has all but
won the game for them. Their lowest rushing output of the season
has been 83 yards, which came in a loss against the Steelers despite
their averaging 4.2 yards per carry. At the other end of the spectrum
is their 198-yard performance (5.5-yard average) in a win against
the Saints. On the season they’re a top ten rushing offense
averaging 129 yards per game and 4.2 per carry. The only area
in which they’re below average (in the bottom ten, in fact)
is touchdowns scored (5), but as a team that thrives on defense
and time of possession, low scores are almost expected. In the
two games in which Chris Ivory has received 13 or more carries,
he has gained more than 100 yards and his team has won each contest,
beating the Saints and Patriots. Only once has he scored a touchdown
this season, but his primary contribution to the game plan is
grinding out yards on the ground and taking pressure off of his
young quarterback.
Across the line of scrimmage the Bills defense appears to perfectly
complement the success Ivory has seen this season; they give up
over 117 yards per game (bottom third of the league) but have
only surrendered three rushing touchdowns (tied for fourth best).
New York should continue to see success as they move the ball
down the field but will likely encounter difficulties in the red
zone much as they have all season. Fortunately, they have the
ultimate X-factor in Smith, and his mobility has been key to both
extending drives and improvising scores inside the red zone; he
has three rushing touchdowns this year and the Jets have won every
game in which he has scored with his legs. While relying on a
rookie’s decision making is often the downfall of an offense,
it has been beneficial for New York to allow Smith the freedom
to scramble and make decisions in the open field, using his athleticism
to make plays.
Projections:
Geno Smith: 190 pass yds, 1 TD, 1 INT / 30 rush yds
Chris Ivory: 80 rush yds
Santonio Holmes: 40 rec yds
Passing
Game Thoughts: Amazingly, the lesser of the two passing
attacks may actually belong to Buffalo in this weekend’s
matchup, as they average ten fewer yards per contest (192) and
over a full yard less per attempt (6.0). Unlike the Jets, however,
the home team has started three different quarterbacks this season,
though they finally have their opening-day starter back under
center. EJ Manuel was injured in Week 5 and returned to the field
last week in the loss to Pittsburgh after missing over four weeks.
In the past six weeks, including the game in which he was injured,
the Bills have won only once, and in the past three contests they
were unable to score more than 17 points. In his only full game
since September, Manuel completed 56 percent of his passes for
only 155 yards while throwing one touchdown and one interception,
right in line with the Bills' season completion percentage and
TD–INT ratio, though slightly below the already underwhelming
yardage average. Wide receiver Steve Johnson (groin, questionable)
was unable to complete the Week 10 contest and still managed to
lead the team in receiving yards despite not breaking 50 and being
targeted ten times (three receptions).
Even without Manuel in mid-season form and Johnson fully available,
Buffalo may still be able to throw the ball against the Jets and
their bottom ten pass defense. They’re about average in
sacks recorded and yards per attempt, but are near the bottom
in yards against and touchdowns allowed, suggesting that they
don’t frequently give up big plays through the air but are
susceptible to getting beaten by the pass fairly consistently;
teams don’t need to attack them deep down the field often
because the short and intermediate passing game tends to work
well enough on its own. The problem that has limited the Bills
all year is their shortage of top-end receivers, but with Johnson
on the field and rookie Robert Woods across from him, defenses
have two deep threats to consider, which at least opens up the
field for tight end Scott Chandler and each of the running backs
to contribute through the air. If Buffalo can keep pressure off
of their rookie quarterback and improve on their bottom four sack
numbers (31 surrendered), they can keep the game close enough
to win it late in front of the home crowd.
Running Game Thoughts: With or without Manuel in the lineup,
Buffalo is a run-first team and when healthy has one of the best
pairs of running backs in the league; with stars on other teams
injured or unavailable, it’s possible that the best tandem
currently in the NFL resides in the Bills' backfield. Between
Fred Jackson and C.J. Spiller alone, the team would average over
110 yards per game(55.7 yards per game each). But they also get
occasional contributions from Tashard Choice and scrambles from
Manuel. In total, Buffalo averages over 140 yards per game and
4.3 per carry while having recorded eight rushing touchdowns,
marks that are exceeded by only four teams in the league. Unfortunately,
the ability to run the ball hasn’t correlated with victories,
with yardages totals having no causal relationship with the outcome
of the game. Even considering the four teams with quantitatively
better rushing attacks, two of those four have the same 3-6 record
as Buffalo. The NFL is often referred to as a passing league,
and while the inability to run the ball is often symptomatic of
other issues, a legitimate rushing attack still yields to the
strength of the passing game.
The normally superb Buffalo running game will be put to the test
Sunday against a Jets defense that ranks as far and away the best
at stopping the run; their yards per game (73.8) and per rush
(3.1) are both best in the league. Partially because of the strength
of the rush defense and the relative weakness of the pass defense,
there are only two other teams that have faced fewer runs than
New York has, and if this continues, the Bills are certainly going
to be putting too much pressure on Manuel to take control of the
game. Even though the New York defense wants to stop the run,
Buffalo will have to commit to the ground game and the hands of
veteran players like Jackson and Spiller instead of a rookie who
has recently returned from injury. With their running backs both
available, the Bills will not have to worry about keeping a runner
fresh and will need only focus on discovering what will work against
a Jets defense that has been impressive all season. Using the
run to set up the pass will be essential in buying time for Manuel,
but without an established ground game, the defense will be able
to focus in on the rookie and possibly add to the offensive woes
frequently experienced by the Bills.
Projections:
EJ Manuel: 180 pass yds, 1 TD / 10 rush yds
C.J. Spiller: 30 rush yds / 10 rec yds
Marquise Goodwin: 40 rec yds
Prediction: Jets 17, Bills 16 ^
Top
Redskins at Eagles
- (Thorne)
Passing Game Thoughts: In the past
three weeks Washington has enjoyed the benefits of playing against
three of the worst five passing defenses in the league, though
looking at box scores from those contests may not show it. Over
that span, Robert Griffin III (and Kirk Cousins in a brief period
of relief) has thrown four touchdowns and five interceptions while
averaging 250.6 yards per game, which is statistically lower than
their season average. Despite the relative caliber of their opponents,
the Redskins couldn’t perform like the top ten passing offense
they’ve been in 2013. Not surprisingly, they lost two of
those three games by an average score of 36–24, including
their overtime victory at home against San Diego. It took several
weeks for Griffin to trust his legs again, and that has greatly
improved his game recently, but the primary fault with Washington
continues to be the offensive line. As a unit, the O-line is one
dimensional, and that single area of greatness does not encompass
pass protection; even though they’ve only surrendered 18
sacks this season (sixth best in the league), the quarterback
is constantly under pressure, and that has contributed to an average
or worse number of interceptions, touchdowns, and completion percentage
for the year, three items you wouldn’t expect from a team
throwing for 259 yards (top ten) every week.
This will mark the fourth week in a row that Washington faces
a bottom five pass defense, and this one will be statistically
the worst of the bunch. Philadelphia gives up 307 yards per game
through the air, which is second worst in the league; they’ve
also allowed 15 passing touchdowns (near average), and are one
interception shy of leading the league in that category. Most
of that can be rationalized by understanding that the Eagles have
had more passes attempted (and completed) against them than anyone
else in the NFL, despite their having held opponents to a slightly
worse than average completion percentage. Teams have determined
that the best way to beat Philadelphia is by committing to throw
against them, and most have been effective doing just that. Washington
will be tasked with slowing down the below-average Eagles pass
rush, and if they’re able to effectively protect their young
quarterback, Griffin will have time to pick apart a Philadelphia
secondary that has underperformed all season.
Running Game Thoughts: The weakness of their opponent may be
in stopping the pass, but the strength of the Redskins is in their
rushing offense; they are third overall in yards per game (2.3
behind first place) and are tied for the best yards per attempt
at 5.1, one of only two teams at or above five yards per carry.
But running the ball still may not be enough for Washington, for
as good as they are on the ground, they’ve yet to run frequently
enough to force their opponent to wholly commit to stopping that
facet of their offense. Of course they would like to have a balanced
offense, but if one aspect can’t be stopped by the defense,
why voluntarily stop themselves? On the season, the Redskins have
passed 52 more times than they’ve rushed, and considering
that they gain half of a first down every time they run the ball,
that ratio should be turned around or even further exaggerated.
The primary workhorse for Washington has been Alfred Morris, who
averages 91.7 yards per game, doing most of his damage in the
open field. In the red zone the ball gets handed off to others
more frequently, with Morris accounting for only five of the 12
total touchdowns scored by running backs. The X-factor in the
running game is the contribution from Griffin, who after getting
several games under his belt is now back to his duel-threat ways,
averaging 45.8 yards per game with his legs.
Against the run, Philadelphia falls comfortably into the middle
of the pack in the major statistics, with the exception of attempts
faced. Their offense tends to be fast paced, allowing their opponents
more plays against the defense, effectively skewing what would
otherwise be a decent, though not great, run defense. Compared
to their poor pass defense, having mediocre rankings against the
run makes that aspect of their game seem like a strength. The
defensive line is strong, especially at the ends in this 3-4 scheme,
and the linebackers are effective in filling gaps and stopping
the run before it reaches the next level. Much like the blue-collar
city itself, Philadelphia's front seven is hard-working and generally
not flashy but gets the results the team needs. The defense gets
a bad rap for giving up so many points, but considering that Green
Bay, Seattle, and San Francisco have very similar run defense
numbers, the blame should absolutely fall on another aspect of
the game.
Projections:
Robert Griffin III: 260 pass yds, 2 TDs / 30 rush yds
Alfred Morris: 100 rush yds, 1 TD
Pierre Garcon: 80 rec yds
Passing
Game Thoughts: If it hasn’t been done already, we
can now add Philadelphia to the list of teams that play better
with their backup quarterback than their starter, making them
at least the fifth (if not the eighth) team to have had that revelation
in 2013. Excluding the season opener, Nick Foles has appeared
in all four of the remaining victories earned by the Eagles thus
far, has a 3–0 record as a starter (in games he has completed)
this season, and regardless of who else has played for Philadelphia,
has been the better performer in each of the five contests in
which he has appeared. He’s thrown 15 touchdowns and no
interceptions, and despite playing in portions of only five games
this season, he is the leading passer on the team in every category
in which it is good to be the leader. Since Foles took over the
starting role, the Eagles are 4–1 and tied for first in
the division; a win over Washington would give them a half-game
lead over Dallas since they’re on bye this week. Through
roughly four and a half games this season, Foles has thrown for
1,207 yards and 16 scores with a completion percentage better
than 63.3. Projected over a 16-game season, that would give him
268 yards and 3.5 touchdowns per game, totaling almost 4,300 yards
and 57 touchdowns on the season.
Nothing Washington has done to this point in the season suggests
that they’ll be able to slow down the Eagles passing attack.
In Week 1 against Michael Vick they allowed 203 pass yards and
two touchdowns on 60 percent completions, and by all objective
measures Foles has outperformed Vick by leaps and bounds. The
Redskins surrender 275 yards per game, have given up 19 touchdowns
while forcing only 10 interceptions, and have recorded a below-average
22 sacks on the season while allowing 66.5 percent completions
against, which is fourth worst in the NFL. They don’t defend
the pass well, they don’t force turnovers, they don’t
get to the quarterback regularly, and they give up touchdowns
almost consistently. On top of that, they’re catching the
Eagles currently riding a 4–1 record and motivated to pick
up a win and take over first place in the division in front of
the home crowd. It’s still the NFC East and strange things
have happened in this division all season, but looking at both
the numbers on paper and the performances on screen, it’s
hard to imagine the potent Eagles passing attack being derailed
by the Redskins defense.
Running Game Thoughts: For as much attention as is paid to the
passing attack, the strength of Philadelphia is still in their
ability to run the ball. In yards per game and per attempt they’re
the best in the business, and they’re right in the middle
of the pack when it comes to rushing touchdowns, likely because
the offense had consistency problems early in the season and now
has a highly efficient passing attack that has been finishing
off drives. Because of the nature of the offense, the running
game is most effective in the middle of the field where the defense
is spread out, and that creates more opportunities for mismatches
to exploit. LeSean McCoy averages 93.2 yards per game and 4.8
per carry and leads the league with 1,258 yards from scrimmage.
The only downside of a strong passing attack is that the running
game can sometimes be used less frequently, as three of the past
five games have seen—though in the other two, McCoy recorded
over 160 total yards from scrimmage. He has scored only one touchdown
(receiving) since Foles took over, however.
The same mediocrity that affects the Redskins pass defense also
permeates what they’re able to do against the run, and against
McCoy and the Eagles' offensive scheme, that likely won’t
be good enough. Veteran left tackle Jason Peters is listed as
questionable (leg) for Sunday’s game, and his potential
absence is about the only thing that may be working in Washington's
favor . In Week 1 the Redskins gave up 184 yards and one touchdown
to McCoy on 31 carries, an average of 5.9 yards despite having
no single rush longer than 34 yards. And the team recorded 79
yards on top of what the star running back earned, making a total
of 263 yards, two touchdowns, and 5.4 yards per carry. While that
was the Redskins' worst defense performance against the run this
season, it was also the best ground game they’ve faced,
and if Week 11 goes anything like Week 1, it’s going to
be a long day for Washington. And that's not accounting for the
noticeable improvements made to the Philadelphia passing game
since their first meeting.
Projections:
Nick Foles: 280 pass yds, 3 TDs
LeSean McCoy: 100 rush yds, 1 TD / 20 rec yds
DeSean Jackson: 80 rec yds, 1 TD
Riley Cooper: 90 rec yds, 1 TD
Prediction: Eagles 42, Redskins
31 ^ Top
Chargers at Dolphins
- (Thorne)
Passing Game Thoughts: One of the
biggest fantasy surprises this season has been the resurgence
of Philip Rivers, coming off a pair of woefully underwhelming
seasons and having arguably the least talent around him in recent
history because of preseason injuries. Even with those circumstances,
Rivers is completing a career high 71.6 percent of his passes
in leading the fourth most productive passing offense in the NFL
with 289 yards per game. San Diego is better than average in both
touchdowns scored and interceptions thrown, and the number of
sacks they’ve given up (16) is tied for fourth best in the
league. Rivers may face a little more pressure this weekend after
left tackle King Dunlap strained his neck last week against Denver
and his status for Week 11 has yet to be determined. Additionally,
center Nick Hardwick left that game with a relatively simple injury,
though up to that point he had been the only Chargers lineman
to play every snap of the season. With a revolving offensive line,
San Diego has seen inconsistencies all season, and Rivers has
certainly noticed an increase in pressure after positions and
personnel were shuffled to account for the new injures, a trend
which unfortunately is likely to continue on Sunday.
Despite losing five of their last six games and not having a
regulation victory in nearly two full months, the Dolphins pass
defense falls right in the middle of most statistical categories.
The major exception to that is their being one of five teams to
have forced more interceptions than touchdowns allowed, and they’re
also slightly above average in sacks recorded, including the game-winning
play in their overtime victory against Cincinnati. As a pass defense,
Miami hasn’t allowed a multiple-touchdown performance since
Week 4, the beginning of their 1–5 skid. They have recording
seven interceptions during that time compared to only two touchdowns
allowed. With a reasonable yardage average and a stingy scoring
record, the Dolphins should be one of the best pass defenses San
Diego has faced since opening weekend against Houston, a game
in which Rivers threw for only 195 yards and less than 50 percent
passing but still managed four touchdowns and only one interception,
accounting for all 28 of his team’s points.
Running Game Thoughts: The leadership of Rivers accommodates
for the offensive line struggles when San Diego chooses to pass,
but their running game is much more susceptible to the inconsistencies.
The team is averaging 106.8 rush yards per game and has scored
only four touchdowns on the ground, better than only four other
teams. The most surprising injury news is that star running back
Ryan Mathews hasn’t been forced to miss a game this year
after the first three years of his career have been sprinkled
with missed games, hesitant performances, and questionable availability.
In 2013 he has the majority of the rushes for San Diego, and despite
early reports of a committee backfield situation, he has more
than doubled the production and attempts of fellow running back
Danny Woodhead. The key to the Chargers' success may be in getting
Mathews going on the ground. In games where he has recorded more
than 60 rushing yards, the team has won; and in games where he
has not reached that mark, his team has lost.
Even though the weakness of San Diego lies in their running game,
that is also the weakness of the Miami defense they’ll be
facing on Sunday. The Dolphins are a bottom ten defense, giving
up 119.1 yards per game and just under four yards per carry. The
relatively low per-carry average suggests that the Dolphins don’t
give up big plays particularly often but that in a methodical
attack they can be beaten by consistently pounding the ball in
the ground game. In their Week 10 loss to previously winless Tampa
Bay they allowed more than 140 rush yards, with three different
players recording more than 40 yards each and two of those three
averaging more than five and a half yards per carry. Miami is
one of only eight teams to have given up double-digit rushing
touchdowns, reinforcing the fact that in short-yardage or red
zone situations they’re generally unable to come up with
critical stops. If San Diego is able to consistently pick up a
few yards at a time by running Mathews and Woodhead, they should
be able to control the game and secure a victory.
Projections:
Philip Rivers: 230 pass yds, 1 TD
Ryan Mathews: 70 rush yds, 1 TD
Antonio Gates: 50 rec yds, 1 TD
Keenan Allen: 80 rec yds
Passing
Game Thoughts: Though they tried to deny it, last week
was anything but business as usual for the Dolphins, following
the fallout from national media coverage and a league investigation.
While that all is ongoing, it is now one week removed from being
new, so hopefully Miami can begin to refocus on football and move
those distractions to the background. To his credit, quarterback
Ryan Tannehill had a remarkably normal outing against Tampa Bay,
throwing for 229 yards on 64 percent passing with more touchdowns
than interceptions, nearly mirroring his season averages of 217
yards and 61 percent, again with more scores than picks. The most
notable difference between Week 10 and the season averages was
the number of sacks conceded, as Tannehill took only two after
previously averaging four per game for a league worst 37. The
offensive line is still missing the two starters from its left
side, so the likelihood of keeping sack numbers low for a second
week in a row is not good. Troubles along the O-line have plagued
the Dolphins for the majority of 2013 and will continue to be
the primary hindrance between the team and the winning ways to
which they’re trying to return.
If the offensive line is able to buy time for Tannehill, he’s
likely to find plenty of opportunities for success against a Chargers
defense that ranks in the bottom five of yards allowed and has
given up 14 touchdowns while forcing only four interceptions,
though three of them have come in the past four games. The key
to success for either time will be in affecting quarterback pressure;
San Diego is below average in sacks recorded, so that battle of
weaknesses will be central in determining the outcome of the game.
The primary weakness of the Chargers defense is their secondary,
so wide receiver Mike Wallace may once again become fantasy relevant,
at least for this week, as he may finally be able to beat coverages
with consistency. The play of wide receiver Rishard Matthews in
Week 10 gives Miami a solid slot receiver to complement Wallace
and Brian Hartline, potentially forcing the Chargers secondary
into more one-on-one situations rather than allowing them to double
team the speedy star wideout, clearly something with which Wallace
has struggled for most of this season.
Running Game Thoughts: Two weeks ago Lamar Miller had the first
100-yard rushing performance of his career. Last week he was the
team’s leading rusher with two total yards. While neither
of these accurately reflects him as a young player, they do in
combination capture his skills rather well. His upside is phenomenal,
with good speed and crafty moves in the open field; his floor
is equally as impressive, though in exactly the opposite way.
Without holes to run through, Miller has difficulty creating opportunities
for himself and has had trouble turning a moderate gain into a
breakaway run or in finding a way back to the line of scrimmage
when plays get disrupted in the backfield. Much of this can be
blamed on the offensive line, who even at full strength isn’t
one of the better units in the NFL. But every bit a running back
can do to help the big guys in front of him seems to pay its dividends
down the road. There are a number of reasons Miami averages only
87 rushing yards per game and none of them can be fixed by resolving
the scandal, investigation, and media circus that currently surrounds
the organization.
Facing off against San Diego may give a boost to the running
game, as the Chargers give up 144.6 yards per game and are one
of only four teams yet to recover a fumble this season. San Diego
is average with six rushing touchdowns scored against them, a
number that stays reasonably low because most scores come from
the passing game. They’re not particularly adept at slowing
down the rush either, allowing 4.8 yards per carry for the season,
the fourth worst mark in the league. To this point in 2013, teams
have preferred to throw against San Diego and have been generally
successful, making the Chargers' defensive woes on the ground
all the more depressing. For the most part, San Diego wins by
outscoring their opponents rather than holding their opponents
to fewer points. If Miami can manage their offensive line, they
should be able to run enough to keep the Chargers balanced on
defense, ultimately opening up more opportunities in the passing
game and using that to lead them to victory.
Projections:
Ryan Tannehill: 210 pass yds, 1 TD
Lamar Miller: 40 rush yds / 20 rec yds
Mike Wallace: 70 rec yds
Prediction: Chargers 20, Dolphins
17 ^ Top
Packers at Giants
- (Thorne)
Passing Game Thoughts: It’s
hard to use a sample size of one as the basis for future predictions,
but in the almost-entire game in which quarterback Scott Tolzien
has led the Packers, his performance left something to be desired.
He looked like a guy who was unexpectedly thrown into his first
NFL game, which was in fact the situation in Week 10. His overall
numbers weren’t bad—24 of 39 for 280 yards with a
score and two picks—but some of his decisions weren’t
the best and at times his throws were off target. Given a full
week of starter’s preparation he ought to be in a better
position for Week 11 against the Giants. After two and a half
seasons on the practice squad Tolzien will make his first true
start on Sunday, and much like last week, it is expected that
his favorite target will continue to be wide receiver Jarrett
Boykin, also a former practice squad player and one with whom
the new quarterback clearly has a great deal of comfort. Last
game Boykin recorded eight catches on 13 targets and turned them
into 112 receiving yards, more than doubling the production of
every other individual receiver on the team. With Randal Cobb
still on IR, Boykin will continue to have opportunities to contribute
to the offense, and as defenses focus on Jordy Nelson and James
Jones, the recent call-up can use his existing relationship with
Tolzien to be a fantasy contributor, as well as help out the Packers
on Sundays.
On their current three-game winning streak, the Giants have not
allowed a touchdown pass and have recorded four interceptions
to go along with nine sacks, all of which are significant improvements
over their prior six games of the season. To be fair, the talent
of quarterbacks they have faced recently has not been the same
as they faced to open the year. Now they get to face Tolzien rather
than Aaron Rodgers, potentially paving the way to four wins in
a row. During their streak, New York is averaging 166.7 yards
against through the air and opponents are averaging less than
38 percent completions, both of which would be best in the league
if spread across the season. Tolzien will have his work cut out
for him as he squares off against the newly inspired Giants, and
he will have to call on his years of experience managing an offense
for the practice squad in order to lead the Packers to a road
victory on Sunday.
Running Game Thoughts: Without Rodgers under center, the Packers
gained only 99 yards on the ground in Week 10, well short of their
143.1 average. Much like his predecessor, Tolzien used his feet
to pick up a big gain when the defense opened up in front of him,
scrambling once for 19 yards. That means the rest of the team
gained only 80 yards on 29 carries, a 2.8-yard average, two full
yards short of their season mark. The ultimate contribution to
the running game is the passing threat presented by Rodgers, forcing
the defense to respect his abilities through the air and thus
opening up running lanes on the ground. Since Week 5 against Detroit,
Eddie Lacy have averaged 109 rushing yards; his lowest output
was 82 yards, but in that contest he scored a touchdown, something
he had done for three straight weeks when Rodgers was last the
quarterback.
Much like the pass defense has seen a resurgence during the past
three games, the Giants' ability to stop the rush has improved
dramatically. During the streak, New York has allowed an average
of only 61.7 yards per game, including holding Adrian Peterson
to 28 and LeSean McCoy to 48 in back-to-back weeks. Without an
elite passing threat to defend against, the Giants are able to
remain balanced or even load up against the run, essentially forcing
the outcome of the game onto the shoulders of the opposing quarterback.
At home against a young player making his first NFL start, that
strategy should pay off again. New York will likely stack the
box against the run, forcing the Packers to try to take advantage
of one-on-one matchups along the perimeter of the defense. If
Green Bay can find success throwing or make appreciable gains
on the ground in spite of the Giants' efforts, the game will likely
come down to the final possession.
Projections:
Scott Tolzien: 170 pass yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
Eddie Lacy: 80 rush yds
Jordy Nelson: 60 rec yds
Jarrett Boykin: 70 rec yds
Passing
Game Thoughts: The Giants have discovered that their key
to victory is avoiding mistakes in the passing game; in the past
three contests quarterback Eli Manning has thrown two touchdowns
and one interception, with TD–INT ratios of 1–0, 0–0,
and 1–1 respectively. Compared to the rest of the season
(9–16), that is a drastic improvement. New York is slowly
establishing themselves as a running team and is getting away
from using Manning as their game winner, scaling back his role
to allow him to manage the game and take advantage of opportunities
that present themselves instead of trying to create opportunities
where they are not. With the simplification of the offense there
are fewer receiving yards to go around and certainly fewer touchdowns,
but it has created a more balanced passing attack rather than
focusing primarily on wide receiver Victor Cruz. While this change
is generally good for the team, it is less than ideal for fantasy
owners who have banked on Cruz’s big-play ability and the
abundance of passes thrown his way. While he still possesses breakaway
speed and can get open most anywhere on the field, for the time
being his team is focusing less on the big play and is utilizing
shorter passes and the running game to come out ahead.
If there were a perfect opponent for the Giants passing game,
it just may be Green Bay. They are in the bottom half of the league
in yards surrendered, have allowed 17 touchdowns, and have recorded
a league worst three interceptions, meaning yardage should be
available in bunches and there is minimal chance of passing plays
resulting into turnovers. While the primary goal is undoubtedly
to limit mistakes and maintain possession of the ball, it would
behoove New York to use all of their players, especially their
receivers, to the fullest of their abilities. Getting Cruz on
the perimeter and sending him deep will open up the field for
wide receivers Hakeem Nicks and Ruben Randle and will also benefit
the running game as more Green Bay defenders commit to defending
the pass. Since putting up 31 in an opening-game loss at Dallas,
the Giants have scored more than 21 points only three times, two
of which occurred in the past three games, and in front of the
home crowd, it would be good to show the league and all of their
fans that they’re capable of putting up points and moving
the ball down the field.
Running Game Thoughts: Welcome back, Andre Brown! After missing
the first nine weeks to injury, Brown came off the IR and received
31 touches against the Raiders, which he turned into 119 total
yards (one reception for four yards) and a touchdown. Thanks to
the revolving door of running backs New York has used this year,
their season average for yardage is only 76.9 and their per-carry
mark is a mere 3.2 yards, third worst in the league. Throughout
the preseason it was expected that Brown would be the primary
back for the Giants, and in his only game this year, it appears
as if the organization made the right choice in going with him.
The offensive line still isn’t in great shape, but for the
first time in a while it at least isn’t getting any worse.
With one game under his belt and nearly three months without appreciable
contact, Brown is still significantly more fresh and ready to
go than every starting running back in the league. As such, his
production should remain high as long as the O-line continues
to work together and grow confident as they become increasingly
more familiar with each other.
The Packers rush defense may play an additional role in convincing
the Giants to attack them through the air. While not stellar,
they rank in the top half of the league in most categories, and
in longest rush allowed they have the second best mark (32 yards)
on the season. They have given up seven rushing touchdowns, which
is just worse than the league average, suggesting that in the
red zone they are no more capable of stopping the rush than they
are in the middle of the field, allowing teams the opportunity
to get into the end zone on the ground or through the air. New
York would be best suited in employing a balanced game plan for
Week 11, focusing on all aspects of the offense, inside and outside
rushes along with both deep and short passes. In their most recent
contest, Green Bay allowed 204 rushing yards on 37 carries, including
155 to one player on just 25 touches; they also gave up 228 passing
yards, further highlighting how a balanced Giants attack should
lead to a victory and see them climb closer to the top of the
division standings. Giving Brown another 30 or more carries will
pay dividends in all phases of the game on Sunday.
Projections:
Eli Manning: 200 pass yds
Andre Brown: 90 rush yds, 1 TD
Victor Cruz: 70 rec yds
Prediction: Giants 20, Packers
16 ^ Top
Ravens @ Bears
- (Anderson)
Passing Game Thoughts: In a nutshell,
the Ravens passing attack is below average and the Bears passing
defense is the same. The Ravens have a decent set of skill players,
but other than wide receiver Torrey Smith, they all seem to be
having a down year, including Joe Flacco, who is completing just
59 percent of his passes (22nd in the NFL) and has thrown just
one more touchdown than interceptions on the season. While some
of this can be attributed to poor offensive line play and key
injuries, in the end a good quarterback overcomes these things,
and Flacco looks average at best this season. On the other side
of the football, the Bears defense has also been decimated by
injuries to key players including cornerback Charles Tillman and
linebacker Lance Briggs. Consequently, the Bears are giving up
the 10th most passing yards per game and have just 14 sacks on
the year, second worst in the league. The only thing really saving
the Bears from being a terrible defense (and a dream matchup in
fantasy) is that they play a kind of bend-but-don’t-break
style that has held opposing quarterbacks to just 14 passing touchdowns
(tied for fifth least in the NFL), while picking off 12 balls,
good for second highest in the league.
With all this being said, it is difficult to get a clear idea
on who this specific matchup favors, as both sides of the ball
are subpar and both are coming off poor statistical performances.
While I would give a slight edge to the Bears here in a home game,
the one player that I think can do some real damage is Torrey
Smith. While Smith has had trouble scoring (2 TDs), he is racking
up the yards and targets at a solid pace while facing some of
the tougher pass defenses in the league, including the Browns
twice. Against a depleted secondary that has let up five scores
to opposing wide receivers the past four games, I expect Smith
to have a big game here and perhaps carry the Ravens offense on
his back. Smith is a high-end WR2 this week and should be started
in all formats. No other receiver on this offense should be started,
as there is just no real momentum or consistency behind any of
these players right now. Flacco remains a lower-end QB2 again
this week, although has some upside with the aforementioned Smith
poised to have a big day. Overall, except for Smith, you can do
a lot better than this Ravens squad for your fantasy football
needs.
Running Game Thoughts: This could
be the game where we know once and for all, at least for the rest
of this season, whether Ray Rice has just been bad as a fluke
or if something is really wrong. Rice is having a career-worst
year and while injury, play-calling, and line play is certainly
partly to blame, Rice has simply not looked like himself. While
many believe Rice is playing hurt, the coaching staff acknowledged
this week that they may be willing to go with the hot hand moving
forward rather than show total confidence in Rice. What this means
is that Bernard Pierce is expected to get a heavier workload than
usual in an attempt to revitalize one of the NFL’s worst
rushing attacks of the year. Whether or not Pierce capitalizes
on this opportunity is another thing, as he has not been much
better than Rice, but it still makes for some added drama and
uncertainty in this now crowded backfield.
The good news for Rice and the Ravens is that this game should
be a good showcase and possible kick-starter for the run game
in general. The Bears are currently giving up the second most
rushing yards per game and are the seventh friendliest to opposing
fantasy RBs. While the Ravens defense should be able to keep the
Cutler-less Bears offense in check, this game provides a great
opportunity for the Ravens to re-feature the run with both running
backs. With Torrey Smith taking the top off a weak Bears secondary,
there should be open running room and the stage should be set
for a better-than-usual day from the run game. This all sounds
good on paper. but the Ravens are playing historically bad run
offense, so this is just what should happen, not what will happen.
Either way, if you are a Rice owner this may be the last chance
you have for a good game this year from him (sell high maybe?),
so you must certainly cross your fingers in hopes that the Ravens
take advantage of the juicy matchup. Rice to me is a low-end RB2
in this game, which is actually a step up from where he is normally
ranked. Pierce should certainly see more touches this game, but
until we see just how much the coaches want to get him involved,
he remains a lottery-ticket flex option. If the Ravens rushing
attack doesn't get it together in this one, it may be time to
throw in the towel for the rest of the year.
Projections:
Joe
Flacco: 235 pass yds, 1 TD, 2 INTs
Ray
Rice: 55 rush yds, 1 TD, 20 rec yds
Bernard
Pierce: 40 rush yds, 20 rec yds
Torrey
Smith: 90 rec yds, 1 TD
Marlon
Brown: 30 rec yds
Jacoby
Jones: 30 rec yds
Passing Game Thoughts: While the
Ravens passing defense is average in most areas, they are a ferocious
pass-rushing team (32 sacks), and with starting quarterback Jay
Cutler already out with an injury, the Bears can ill-afford to
let backup Josh McCown take too many hits. While McCown has played
surprisingly well in limited action, he is still a backup with
limitations. He may be OK in a great matchup, but against a team
that will likely be blitzing him all day, he's probably in over
his head. On the bright side for McCown, he can scramble and,
even more importantly, has a talented cast of receivers around
him, including Brandon Marshall, Alshon Jeffery, Martellus Bennett,
and Matt Forte. If Coach Trestman can simplify the game plan,
feature the run a little more, and get the ball out quickly to
his playmakers, the Bears actually have a decent shot at having
a solid if unspectacular afternoon. While McCown may do enough
to keep the Bears in this game, from a fantasy standpoint you
should be able to do quite better. McCown is a low-end QB2 this
week.
As for the receivers, Marshall will probably see a lot of coverage
from cornerback Lardarius Webb, one of the better defensive backs
in the league, meaning his upside, especially with McCown, is
limited this week. Marshall still is an elite talent and a target
monster, so he should still crack your starting lineup, but expect
more of a solid WR2 than his usual elite WR1 performance. Jeffery
is in the midst of a hot streak and was targeted a game-high 18
times last week, and while his upside is also limited in this
game, he should be a solid WR3 with the upside for more as he
draws weaker coverage. While tight end Martellus Bennett has been
inconsistent this year, he may be a nice safety valve for McCown
this week, as he might be forced to throw fast and short to the
middle of the field. Bennett remains a nice red-zone option and
is a moderately safe, low-end TE1 this week. No other Bears passing
game player is on the radar this week as nearly all the targets
are divided up between four main players (including Forte).
Running Game Thoughts: For a team
that is without their starting quarterback and will probably lean
more on the run than usual, this is not a great matchup by any
means. The Ravens run defense has been solid this year, ranking
10th in rushing yards allowed per game, while only giving up one
rushing touchdown (best in the NFL). They have allowed just one
100-plus yard rusher and until last week did not allow any opposing
running back to catch a touchdown pass. With all this being said
it should be no surprise that the Ravens are the second toughest
team for opposing fantasy running backs to score against this
year.
The good news for Forte owners is that the volume of work he gets
in this game should counter a lot of the bad matchup problems,
as the offense may run through him more than it usually does.
With Forte having a solid year and neither of these offenses being
explosive, I expect the Bears to stick with the run (and the dump-off
pass) for all four quarters, meaning a 20-touch day for Forte
is likely. While the matchup puts a big damper on Forte’s
upside, he is as talented as some other backs who have had decent
fantasy days against the Ravens this year, including Eddie Lacy,
Fred Jackson, Le’Veon Bell, and Giovani Bernard. Forte is
not a strong RB1 this week but I still like him as a back-end
RB1 or high-end RB2. No other Bears running back is on the fantasy
radar once again this week.
Projections:
Josh
McCown: 220 pass yds, 2 TDs, 2 INTs
Brandon
Marshall: 70 rec yds
Alshon
Jeffery: 70 rec yds
Martellus
Bennett: 35 rec yds, 1 TD
Matt
Forte: 75 rush yds, 30 rec yds
Prediction: Ravens 24, Bears 23
^ Top
Browns @ Bengals
- (Anderson)
Passing Game Thoughts: Normally
a third-string quarterback means big trouble for an offense, and
fantasy owners alike, but in the case of Jason Campbell, he may
be making a bigger impact than both quarterbacks that once sat
above him on the Browns depth chart. In the two games Campbell
has started this year, he has thrown for a combined 555 yards,
five touchdowns, and no interceptions while completing just over
63 percent of his throws. While these numbers are nice by themselves,
what’s even more impressive is that both games were against
well above-average defenses (Chiefs and Ravens). With a bye week
to rest and prepare, Campbell and the Browns passing attack travel
to Cincinnati where the Bengals are hurting on defense and are
coming off a tough overtime loss to the Ravens. On the season,
the Bengals are seventh best in pass yards allowed per game, 10th
in completion percentage allowed, and seventh in sacks. While
the Bengals lost two of their best defenders in Leon Hall and
Geno Atkins, they still looked good last week, holding the Ravens
to 140 pass yds (2 TDs, 2 INTs), while getting to Joe Flacco five
times. The Browns offensive line has been a strength this year,
and while the Bengals still have a tough defense, without Atkins
the pressure up front gets a whole lot easier for the Browns.
In the matchup earlier this year, a Browns passing attack led
by Brian Hoyer put up 269 yards and two touchdowns against a healthier
Bengals defense.
While Hoyer and Campbell are certainly different quarterbacks,
I expect the numbers this week to be pretty similar, as Campbell
will look to put the ball in his best playmakers’ hands.
Tight end Jordan Cameron and wide receiver Josh Gordon combined
for 162 yards and a touchdown in that earlier game, and that seems
like a reasonable expectation again this week. While there are
certainly safer and higher-upside plays than Campbell this week,
you could easily do worse. As a solid mid-range QB2, Campbell
won’t blow you away with his numbers but should put up enough
stats to make a real difference. Josh Gordon remains one of the
most dynamic wide receivers in the NFL, and with a bye week to
prepare and no shut-down cornerback on the Bengals' roster, I
expect him to go deep often and win more jump balls than he loses.
Gordon is a solid WR2 this week with the upside to be even better.
As for Jordan, he had his worst game of the season last week (1
rec, 4 yds), but as a big focus of this offense, it will be a
big surprise if he does not bounce back this week. Cameron is
still a solid TE1, especially with the position being so shallow
this year. While both Davone Bess and Greg Little had nice fantasy
days last game, neither is remotely consistent enough to be on
the fantasy radar this week.
Running Game Thoughts: When the
Browns traded running back Trent Richardson to the Colts earlier
in the year, they might as well have said “we are giving
up on the run game.” Starting running back Willis McGahee
is averaging 2.6 yards per carry and was even worse in the Browns'
last game, totaling 31 yards on 21 carries in addition to losing
a fumble. It is obvious McGahee has little left in the tank and
the Browns need to move on. On that same note, both the head coach
and offensive coordinator emphasized that Chris Ogbonnaya would
see an increased workload right away and that the backfield would
be more of a timeshare. Of course for fantasy owners, “timeshare”
is a bad word, especially if it is on an offense with limited
talent to begin with.
Ogbonnaya, to his credit, is averaging 5.3 yards per carry in
limited action and has become a solid contributor as a pass-catcher
out of the backfield. For the short-term future, this backfield
will probably be too even of a split to make Ogbonnaya a legit
fantasy threat, but pay attention to this split, as there may
be some real sleeper appeal in a few weeks if Ogbonnaya makes
the best of his increased workload. For this week, the situation
is one to avoid entirely, as the Bengals are an above-average
run defense even without Geno Atkins. To this point, the Bengals
are ninth in the NFL in rush yards allowed per game and are the
fifth toughest defense for opposing fantasy RBs to score against.
With the matchup being tough and the timeshare unstable, move
on from this situation this week.
Projections:
Jason
Campbell: 280 pass yds , 2 TDs, 1 INT
Josh
Gordon: 90 rec yds, 1 TD
Cameron
Jordan: 70 rec yds, 1 TD
Davone
Bess: 40 rec yds
Willis
McGahee: 35 rush yds
Chris
Ogbonnaya: 35 rush yds, 35 rec yds
Passing Game Thoughts: For about
a three-week stretch there, it looked like Andy Dalton might have
been turning the corner on his young career and finally putting
it all together. But just as in previous years that proved to
be merely a tease, as Dalton’s second-half meltdown looks
to be creeping in again this year. Making matters worse is the
fact that he faces a near-elite defense this week in the Cleveland
Browns, who are 10th best in pass yards allowed per game, first
in pass yards allowed per attempt, and tied for fifth in sacks.
In their previous matchup Dalton had one of his worst games of
the year, completing 55 percent of his passes for just 206 yards,
with no touchdowns and one interception (and two sacks). While
this game is at home for Dalton and the gang, the matchup is no
easier, especially with the Browns coming off a bye week well
rested and prepared. The good news for Dalton is that he still
has a near-elite crew of receivers around him, with A.J. Green,
Marvin Jones, Jermaine Gresham, Tyler Eifert, and Giovani Bernard.
Perhaps the biggest threat to a big fantasy day is Browns cornerback
Joe Haden, who limited A.J. Green to 51 yards on a whopping 15
targets the last time these two teams met. While no cornerback
is good enough to completely shut Green down, Haden does just
enough to limit him, in turn negatively affecting the whole Bengals
offense, which is normally opened up by Green’s downfield
ability. If Dalton can get his other receivers involved early,
it should throw off the Browns' defensive rhythm and could open
things up all game long. Of course Dalton may simply lock onto
Green and lots of three-and-outs may follow, severely limiting
the fantasy appeal of this whole squad. While this is certainly
one of the tougher matchups for Green, he gets targeted so much
(first in the NFL) that it is impossible to sit him. He remains
a WR1 this week, though his upside is limited by Haden’s
presence, so huge expectations should be tempered. As for the
other Bengals receivers, as talented as they may be, there are
just too many of them to feed and not enough balls to go around.
Marvin Jones looked like he was busting out a few weeks ago but
fell back to Earth hard with a one-catch, two-yard performance
last game. Jones remains one of the higher-upside complimentary
WRs in the game but is no more than a low-end WR3 this week. With
two solid tight ends, the Browns and Dalton are in good shape,
but for fantasy owners this is like a running-back-by-committee
situation at a different position. While Gresham missed last week’s
game with an injury, he is fully expected to play here, and thus
takes away the upside of both Bengals tight ends. Both are low-end
TE2s now and going forward until one steps up big or gets hurt.
As for Dalton, he is a frustrating guy to own because he has shown
greatness and has the weapons to succeed but has also flopped
hard numerous times. In a good matchup I will still take my chances
on him, but this week the matchup and the negative momentum make
it hard to believe he is anything but a low-end QB2.
Running Game Thoughts: While BenJarvus
Green-Ellis is still getting enough carries to be a pest to Giovani
Bernard’s fantasy value, it is crystal clear who the more
talented and valuable back is. While the carries and yardage out
of the backfield are normally fairly even between the Bengals
running backs, Bernard’s work in the passing game is what
sets him apart and gets his fantasy owners excited about his potential.
Last week he had another highlight-reel play when he took a short
dump-off pass and turned it into an 18-yard score, dodging and
juking defenders all along the way. Because of plays like that,
Bernard is always a threat to turn a game around on any given
play. This week the Bengals take on a solid run defense that has
let up the sixth least rushing yards per game.
The Browns are holding opposing teams to less than 100 yards on
the ground and a 3.6 yards-per-carry average, fourth best in the
NFL. The bright spot for fantasy owners here is that, while the
yardage numbers are going to be harder to get than normal, the
Browns have let up a surprising amount of touchdowns to opposing
running backs (9). Because of this, the Browns are right in the
middle in terms of the fantasy points they give up to opposing
RBs. While the Browns have yet to let a single running back rack
up 100 yards or more, they have allowed nice fantasy days to opposing
running backs with similar skill sets to Bernard, including Reggie
Bush, who racked up 135 total yards and one touchdown. Bernard
himself totaled 75 yards earlier in the year against the Browns,
but I would use that number as an absolute floor because the Bengals
were still easing him into bigger workloads at that time. While
the presence of BJGE caps Bernard’s upside, Bernard should
still be a solid mid-range RB2 this week because of his dual-threat
ability. While the Lawfirm is occasionally usable as a flex guy
in excellent matchups, the Browns are tough on the ground, and
without much else to offer, Green-Ellis needs to be firmly placed
on your bench this week.
Projections:
Andy
Dalton: 235 pass yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
Giovani
Bernard: 45 rush yds, 40 rec yds
BenJarvus
Green-Ellis: 30 rush yds
A.J.
Green: 70 rec yds, 1 TD
Marvin
Jones: 50 rec yds
Tyler
Eifert: 35 rec yds
Prediction: Bengals 27, Browns 24
^ Top
Lions @ Steelers
- (Anderson)
Passing Game Thoughts: Sometimes
the numbers do lie, and while the Steelers have allowed just 201
passing yards per game, good for fourth in the NFL, a closer look
at the numbers may reveal why this is not as tough a matchup as
one might think. Here is a list of the opposing quarterbacks the
Steelers have faced so far this year: Jake Locker, Andy Dalton,
Jay Cutler, Matt Cassel, Geno Smith, Joe Flacco, Terrelle Pryor,
Tom Brady, and EJ Manuel. Besides Brady, this is mostly a list
of rookies, average talent quarterbacks, guys on a down year,
and guys on vanilla offenses. Brady on the other hand, is a future
Hall of Famer on a dynamic offense, even though it has struggled
compared to previous years. And Brady’s numbers against
the Steelers this year? 432 yards passing, four touchdowns, and
a nearly 70 percent completion percentage. Now, I am not trying
to say Matthew Stafford is as good as Brady, but the Lions passing
attack is certainly one of the best in the league and probably
the best the Steelers have seen all year. A bit concerning for
the Lions this week is that all-world wide receiver Calvin Johnson
missed both Wednesday and Thursday practices with a knee injury,
but he usually does take extra rest days, so at this point we
will assume he plays Sunday. If for some reason he does not, then
I certainly give the advantage to the Steelers defense, as the
Lions are a totally different team without Megatron. With Johnson
in the game, however, the Lions have a big advantage because the
entire defense focuses on Johnson, which opens up other players,
both in the passing game and the run game. What is even scarier
for the Steelers defense is that Johnson, usually double- or even
triple-teamed, still makes plays consistently and is nearly impossible
to stop in an end zone jump-ball situation.
Another thing the Lions have going for them is that the Steelers
pass rush is average this year, registering only 16 sacks (fourth
worst in the NFL), meaning Stafford should have a little extra
time to find an open man downfield or check down to one of his
dynamic pass-catching running backs. While playing in Pittsburgh
always makes the game tougher for opposing offenses, this is not
the elite Pittsburgh defense we have come to expect in recent
years, with even their best cover cornerback, Ike Taylor, struggling.
With such a high-powered offense, the matchup only slightly downgrades
the Lions this week. Stafford is still a QB1 as long as Johnson
plays and a top 10 guy at the position. Johnson is an elite WR1
once again, even at less than 100 percent and against a defense
allowing the sixth least fantasy points to opposing WRs. As far
as the other Lions receivers go, I realize tight end Brandon Pettigrew
remains a decent option in PPR leagues, but the guy I still like,
despite just one target last week (a touchdown), is wide receiver
Kris Durham. He is not going to be a top option but could be used
in a pinch as a WR3/flex guy this week.
Running Game Thoughts: Reggie Bush
has been on fire the last couple of games, totaling 197 yards
and a touchdown just on the ground. What better way to keep that
going than to face a rush defense giving up the fourth most rushing
yards per game. In addition, while Bush has just two rushing touchdowns
on the year, the Steelers have given up 12, tied for second most
in the league. On the season, the Steelers are the ninth friendliest
team to opposing fantasy RBs, and that is with facing only two
real top-end running backs (Peterson and Forte) thus far. Really,
the only negative side of playing the Steelers defense, besides
it being a road game, is the fact that they have actually given
up the fewest receiving yards to opposing running backs in the
entire NFL. While this is certainly a negative for a back like
Bush, who gets so involved in the pass game, he has been so good
on the ground lately that this should not greatly affect his fantasy
performance in this one, especially if the Lions grab an early
lead, which is likely. I would start Bush with confidence this
week as an RB1 who should finish among the top 10 at the position.
While running back Joique Bell has looked good lately and remains
one of the best fantasy handcuffs around, he is really only usable
in extremely good matchups, and this would not qualify as one
of those. Hold on to Bell but keep him on your bench in all but
the deepest PPR leagues.
Projections:
Matthew
Stafford: 290 pass yds, 2 TDs, 1 INT
Calvin
Johnson: 95 rec yds, 1 TD
Reggie
Bush: 80 rush yds, 1 TD, 30 rec yds
Joique
Bell: 25 rush yds, 15 rec yds
Brandon
Pettigrew: 40 rec yds
Kris
Durham: 55 rec yds
Passing Game Thoughts: While the
Steelers season has been a big disappointment in general, the
passing game under Ben Roethlisberger has shown flashes of excellence,
and currently ranks 11th in the NFL in yards per game, sixth in
completion percentage, and ninth in yards per pass attempt. On
the other hand, the offensive line has been awful, giving up the
second most sacks. And while racking up yardage has not been a
problem, getting into the end zone has been, as the Steelers have
scored just 13 times in nine games. While the line will continue
to struggle, especially with left guard Ramon Foster out this
week, the receivers for the Steelers are a solid group, with Antonio
Brown fifth in the NFL in receiving yards and first in receptions
and Emmanuel Sanders contributing nicely in a complimentary role.
When the matchup is right, Ben, Brown, and Sanders are all start-worthy
players, as the Steelers have been pass-heavy this year, often
because they are playing catch-up.
This week the matchup is a nice one, first of all because the
Lions offense should handle the Pittsburgh defense with relative
ease, meaning the Steelers should have to throw through all four
quarters, possibly including some garbage time. Secondly, though,
the Lions pass defense is average at best, ranking sixth worst
in passing yards allowed per game and third worst in sacking opposing
quarterbacks. With the home crowd behind them, the Steelers should
get a boost, and with the Lions giving up at least one passing
touchdown in all but one game this year, the chances of a few
passing touchdowns increases quite a bit. While Big Ben’s
propensity to get sacked and turn the ball over limits his upside,
this matchup is a positive one for him from a fantasy perspective,
and I would feel comfortable with him as a high-end QB2 this week.
Brown is pretty much impossible to sit as it is because of the
amount of targets he gets, and while he is not a big threat to
score most weeks, the volume of work he gets makes him a safe
WR2 this week. Sanders has been up and down, and while he looked
like he was poised to break out after two nice games, he fell
last week and is more of a low-end WR3 than anything else. Still,
you could do much worse in a game that is set up to be a shootout.
Tight end Heath Miller has been a disappointment this year, as
he has had to stay in and block more than usual and his scoring
opportunities have been cut way down compared to years past. Miller
at this point is a low-end TE2. While wide receiver Jerricho Cotchery
has had nice back-to-back fantasy games and leads the team in
touchdowns, you are really chasing points and gambling on a guy
that is clearly past his prime and the third option, at best.
Cotchery is a WR4 this week, as I expect rookie Markus Wheaton
to eat into Cotchery’s snaps sooner rather than later.
Running Game Thoughts: While running
back Le’Veon Bell is not flashy and does not possess big-play
ability, he is solid, steady, and the Steelers seemingly trust
him enough to maintain or increase his workload almost every week.
Bell’s yards per carry average (3.3) is not good, but that
stat is not what gets fantasy owners excited, points are. And
in that department, Bell has been fairly consistent and reliable,
which is worth something in a year where there are not a lot of
backs consistently putting up numbers outside the top eight or
so guys. While Bell has been a workhorse for the Steelers, the
Lions defense has been working opposing backs over, ranking eighth
best in rushing yards allowed per game and has yet to allow a
100-yard rusher this year. Of course some of this can be traced
back to the Lions offense being so high-powered that opposing
teams must go pass-heavy to keep pace, but still, the Lions do
have one of the better defensive lines in the game and therefore
need to be taken seriously. Another blow to Bell owners this week
is the absence of left guard Ramon Foster, who is out with an
ankle sprain and will be missed, as he ranked as one of the league’s
better guards. Overall, it is going to be a tough game for Bell
and the Steelers run game, as they do not have the defense to
slow the Lions down much, which may force Big Ben into taking
over the game by passing more.
With a tough defensive line bearing down on him, Bell’s
yards per carry is not likely to go up much this game, meaning
he is really going to need a large volume of carries to rack up
some yards, or some goal-line carries to save his fantasy day.
On the bright side, Bell is being used in the passing game, and
if the Steelers get to the goal line, he is likely to at least
get a shot at running it in. While I appreciate Bell’s consistency,
he and the Steelers running attack is not dynamic enough to make
a big impact in a tougher-than-average matchup. While Bell has
been a nice mid- to high-end RB2 most weeks, this matchup downgrades
him to a high-end RB3. While he should get enough work early in
the game to score a few points, he will be hard-pressed to find
a lot of running room and to run the ball all four quarters. No
other Steelers running back is on the fantasy radar this week,
or any going forward unless Bell gets hurt.
Projections:
Ben
Roethlisberger: 280 pass yds, 2 TDs, 1 INT
Le’Veon
Bell: 45 rush yds, 20 rec yds
Antonio
Brown: 85 rec yds
Emmanuel
Sanders: 55 rec yds
Heath
Miller: 35 rec yds
Jerricho
Cotchery: 30 rec yds
Prediction: Lions 27, Steelers 20
^ Top
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