FFT's Blog O' Fantasy Football

Welcome to the Tuesday Morning Buzz! Week 15, to me, was very decisive in fantasy but left a lot on the table in the NFL. As you’ll see, many teams who believed they were out of the hunt for weeks are all of a sudden fringe contenders for wild cards or division championships. For this reason, Weeks 16 and 17 should continue to provide fantasy output from most teams, as the Packers are the only team in the NFL with their playoff seed mathematically decided. Let’s get right into this week’s action:

Jaguars—Falcons
Give credit to Matt Ryan and the Falcons passing game in this one. They still ran more than they passed (33 rushes to 32 passes), but Ryan looked great when he dropped back and completed 19 of 26 to the tune of 224 yards and three touchdowns. Had he thrown as many times as Brees or Rodgers normally would, you wouldn’t be able to tell the numbers apart. Add in that this Jaguar defense is nothing to be sneezed at and you have to be pretty impressed. Maybe, just maybe, after one more offseason, the Falcons will be ready to be a downfield offense (whether or not that will truly be an improvement is yet to be determined). For the Jags, MJD will be licking his chops to run against the Titans and then the Colts, but I wouldn’t touch any other guy in a Jaguars jersey. I don’t see any of them being trustworthy, even with the power of Shadid Khaaaaaaaaaaaan!

Cowboys—Buccaneers
There are four Cowboys I feel good about if they are on my team in the championship round: Romo, Robinson, Austin, and Bryant. Romo threw three short-range touchdowns in this game, and each was caught by a different, dominant Cowboys receiver. This may seem like common-sense advice, but I wouldn’t be surprised if Felix Jones owners are all of a sudden feeling froggy against Philadelphia next week. Perhaps he’ll be a good flex play, but I’m looking hard at other options if I have a choice. For the Bucs, LeGarrette Blount and his teammates are a sit for the rest of the year. I’d rather have Roy Helu for the remainder of the season.

Reggie Bush has exceeded expectations in 2011.

Dolphins—Bills
Reggie Bush has looked so good on the stat sheet this year. And I can’t believe how great his fantasy production has been. The Bills haven’t been great or even good against the run this year, but Reggie had only one 100-yard game before this season, and I’m not sure he ever carried the ball 25 times in any game for the Saints. For Bush, you’ve just got to close your eyes and start him. In the same breath, C.J. Spiller also looked fantastic against a better-than-you-think Dolphins run defense that shut down Fred Jackson earlier in the year. In some leagues, Spiller can be started at wide receiver, and in those leagues he is unsittable in future weeks. Next week he visits Tebow, who will likely use his divine right to keep Spiller at bay, but I still think Spiller will be passable as a starter in the championship round.

Seahawks—Bears
No Bears are a good start for the remainder of the year, despite their playing Green Bay next week. If you are in a super deep league, you may consider Kahlil Bell, as Marion Barber is done for the year (and perhaps his career) after he let the power of Tebow intimidate him last week. For the Seahawks, Marshawn Lynch only went into Beast Mode around the goal line on Sunday, but that was good enough. Lynch is the only one of the 106 men in uniform at this game that I would start in the playoffs. Next week is a scary matchup against the 49ers, but you had better believe he will cross the goal line at some point on Sunday.

Titans—Colts
Well, I guess Curtis Painter just isn’t that good. I had assumed that the Colts had given up and no one was trying, but maybe Painter just can’t play football that well. It appears that Orlovsky can at least bring the Colts to relevance. I wouldn’t start Reggie Wayne this weekend against an angry Texans D, but if he does happen to perform well against Houston, I would start him with utmost confidence against Jacksonville in Week 17. For the Titans, don’t even think about it. Yes, Locker is looking good, but don’t let any of this success fool you. These Titans are not offensively strong enough for you to put any of their WRs in your lineup, though you have to start CJ2K next week against the Jags and in Houston in Week 17.

Redskins—Giants
I was certain the Giants were going to claim the division on a boneheaded Cowboy loss in Week 15 or 16. It appears that the opposite may have happened. The Cowboys came out of the week looking dominant, and the Giants came out with a home loss to an awful team. The Giants’ loss can be tied to one play in particular, when Hakeem Nicks broke free and Eli laid the ball in to him for a walk-in touchdown. The only catch (no pun intended) was, Nicks dropped the ball after it was well in the breadbasket and the rest was history. If the Giants had scored that touchdown, things wouldn’t have gotten desperate, and perhaps Eli wouldn’t have been forcing passes. For the next two weeks, the Giants offense should do well, as they are now backed into a wall for a playoff spot. Now it’s win out or go home. For the Skins, Helu is your only option to gamble on, and I’m well documented on how I feel about Shanahan running backs. That being said, Torain and Choice are apparently not even in consideration for play, so there really isn’t anyone for Shanahan to use as a substitute.

Packers—Chiefs
The Chiefs seem to be the first 2011 beneficiaries of the new coach bump. They had been playing great defense down the stretch and, with Romeo Crennel taking over, they drew blood from the seemingly invincible Green Bay Packers. The Packers are great and should be in the mix deep into the playoffs, but I have to wonder if this blemish may deflate a team that was riding a high of confidence. Neither the Bears nor the Lions play defense the way the Chiefs can, so I’m starting all Packers into the new year. For the Chiefs, I don’t love Oakland or Denver as the remaining opponents against this D and I am certainly not starting anyone else.

Saints—Vikings
We will continue our discussion on MVP candidacy in just a moment. First though, I wonder how many fantasy seasons were ruined or made by the play of Brees the past two weeks. The Saints are absolutely on fire down the stretch and are looking to make a strong run in the playoffs. They play their final two games in the Superdome and should be playing hard for the No. 2 seed, though the Niners seem too good to give that up easily, so I’d keep starting all of the regulars. For the Vikings, Gerhart got two receiving touchdowns in a game where Peterson was healthy, but I wouldn’t count on that repeating. With Peterson likely back at full health next week, Gerhart should be dropped for more explosive options.

Croooooooooow!
I have two corrections from last week’s article. First, I titled the argument “Brees for MVP,” which is misleading. I should’ve called it something else, as I’m not actually campaigning for Brees winning the regular-season MVP award. Rodgers’ passer rating and wins are simply too much for Brees to make up for in the limited amount of time remaining. My actual point was that Brees will emerge in history as having had a better year this year than Rodgers, and I think the playoffs will be the deciding factor in a statistically close regular season.

Also, my apologies on Rodgers’ fumbles. I read the stat line without doing the proper research, and that was my fault. Brees has turned the ball over far more often than Rodgers this season, and that in itself is nearly enough reason for Rodgers deserving the regular-season MVP.

Brees for MVP!
That all being said, Brees isn’t totally eliminated from the MVP argument. And I like the segment title, so that’s what we’re going with! Rodgers had a miserable week and Brees had one of his best of the season. Especially with human tendency to recall that which is most common, if Brees’ play goes up while the Packers begin to rest (No. 1 seed guaranteed, no perfect season chances), it is possible that Brees could end the year with highly favorable numbers. I’m not saying it is likely—Rodgers dominated for 13 weeks of the season—but it could happen. Let’s check the stat sheets.

As you can see, the race has significantly tightened. And again, with the Saints playing hard through Week 17 and the Packers possibly relaxing with nothing to play for, it’s not hard to see Brees leading Rodgers in nearly every category by year’s end. Add to this that Rodgers’ No. 1 target is out for the regular season, and there is a good chance that Brees ends the year with stronger numbers in most categories. Add all of the records that Brees is likely to break by year’s end, and you have a strong candidate for regular-season MVP. Again, this piece was not meant to say that Brees deserves the title of MVP, but that he has played well enough to be in the conversation with Rodgers and will perform over Rodgers’ head in the playoffs to emerge from the total season as the year’s best quarterback.

Bengals—Rams
If you have Steven Jackson and, somehow, are still alive in your league, you have to ride him even though the Rams quite possibly have the hardest remaining schedule of any team in the NFL. Next week they travel to Pittsburgh, and then come home to find the 49ers waiting for them. For the rest of the Rams, don’t get cute. They have absolutely no other player to consider, even in a 20-team league. For the Bengals, they should be fighting until the end of the year for a playoff spot, so A.J. Green should continue to be a dominant force if he plays. Look for the Bengals to score especially high against the upcoming Cardinals.

Panthers—Texans
The forecasting on these two teams is as easy as it gets. Play Cam Newton and Steve Smith for Carolina. Play Arian Foster for Houston. Anyone else is moot. The Texans play two fairly soft offenses in the coming weeks, so feel free to start their defense as well.

P.S. Is the normally stout AFC South the weakest division in football this year? If so, does that cheapen the fact that the Texans finally made it to the playoffs?

Lions—Raiders
A battle of silly silver heads making silly silver penalties! Yours truly was let down by Kevin Smith (a waiver wire pick-up this week) and Eli Manning (who I traded Carson Palmer for). For Smith, I do like his chances the remaining two weeks against the Chargers in Detroit and then traveling to Green Bay in Week 17. For Palmer and company, I don’t like any Raiders next week against the mighty Chiefs, and I’m only marginally excited for a Week 17 against a Chargers team that is fighting hard to somehow climb back to a playoff spot. If you’ve held on to McFadden thus far, I can’t imagine keeping him on the bench for the championship round. There has to be someone out there to take away from your opponent, even if you won’t start them.

Browns—Cards
Peyton Hillis came back strong this weekend, but not strong enough. And his remaining schedule includes Baltimore and Pittsburgh. Yikes. Better luck next year, buddy. For the Cardinals, Fitz is looking good for his remaining two games against a Bengals D that hasn’t been airtight and a Seattle team in Glendale. I’d temper your expectations though, as neither of those teams are mathematically eliminated and will be playing hard to see postseason afterlife.

Jets—Eagles
Speaking of those not mathematically eliminated, how ‘bout them Eagles! Yes, believe it or not, they could still win the division. My money is still on the New York Football Giants, but you had better believe that the Eagles know it’s possible. I’m not saying that you should be playing Brent Celek over Jermichael Finley, but look for the Philadelphia skill position players to make an impact as they too are clawing towards the light. It is, in my opinion, highly unlikely that the Jets will make the post season. They face a motivated and embarrassed Giants team and then travel to a suddenly hostile environment against a hot Miami team. The Jets could win either or both of those games, but I don’t see it happening, and I don’t like any of their offensive players for the remainder either. I’m just saying, I’d rather have Lance Ball than Shonne Greene.

Patkowskis—Tebow
Well, as Jesus (Jason Sudakis) put it on SNL this past Saturday, “If I’m God’s son, Tom Brady must be his nephew!” Ok, I’m kidding. I actually think this was Belichick’s game-planning ability more than it was any Patriot’s dominance at their position. Against a defense that wasn’t going to allow the underneath game to be successful, the Patriots went deep to Ochocinco (What?!?) and Hernandez. Add three rushing touchdowns (including one by Brady), and you’ve got a stat line that defies the reality of New England’s 2011 offense. Tebow (the man, not the team) continued to have an outstanding fantasy day and, may I say, looked passable on the football field for all four quarters. Always keep in mind that John Fox reached the Super Bowl with a team very similar to this. Great defense, great running game, and a quarterback that keeps defenses honest. As for keeping defenses honest, who would you rather have as your starting quarterback, Jake Delhomme or Tim Tebow? Case in point.

Ravens—Chargers
The league that means most to me is a standard 10-team league with a pair of two-week playoff rounds. I entered week two as +14, but Calvin Johnson brought me down to -5 heading into Sunday night. It was my Ryan Mathews versus my opponent’s Ravens DST with no one to play on Monday. Boy, oh boy, am I glad for that December Chargers offense. These guys look like world-beaters right now, and I wouldn’t be overly surprised if two easy matchups in Detroit and Oakland get them into the playoffs. For the Ravens, the story is lackluster play on the road. Cross-country games are usually tough, but watch for this loss to have cost Baltimore their division in the long run. And as we have seen, if these Ravens go on the road in the playoffs, they’re not likely to stay alive. For fear of this, watch for the Ravens offensive players to be on fire the remaining two weeks. They have Cleveland in Baltimore and then travel out to Cincinnati, both of which will be looking to ruin the Ravens’ season.

$#^% Chris Collinsworth Says
Speaking of being on the road, I am actually in Ohio with my in-laws for this and next Sunday for the holidays. For this reason, I was unable to catch the audio of the newly elected “least favorite NFL commentator” by the NFL players in Sports Illustrated’s newest poll and will be unable to hear him next weekend as well. Please let me know if I miss out on anything!

Steelers—Niners
There were two main stories for this game. For the Steelers, as with their counterpart in Baltimore, the on-the-road play is definitely lacking. The Steelers had a chance to take the division Monday night and, instead, nearly sealed their fate as a wild card. I know Ben is hurt and better days are coming, but this was a poor showing. For the 49ers, they deserve credit for an intense pass rush and great coverage. The Steelers offense is built on the assumption that Roethlisberger can’t be sacked, so if you can get him, you have them beat. Vernon Davis is going to be a great asset in the final two weeks of the season, for both the 49ers and his fantasy owners. Look for San Francisco to stay hot as they try to protect their round-one bye.

And that’s it! Week 15 was only a prelude to the action forthcoming as the regular season ends in a blaze of glory. Watch for all teams to be at their very best, as nearly every playoff spot is still up for grabs. Each fantasy point is worth exponentially more than the one before it now, so remember to be very judicious and calm in your lineup selection. Week 16 is the time to look for consistent and “guaranteed” points. If you get down big, then go out on a limb in Week 17; but for now, keep your cool and ride the horse that got you here.

Welcome to the Tuesday Morning Buzz! Week 14 was a fantastic week for non-stop action on Sunday with another less-than-entertaining Monday Night Football. Regardless, drama is running high as the fantasy playoffs are underway and the NFL postseason looms. Watch for each week to get even more tense and unpredictable as the season draws to a close.

Steelers–Browns
Let the praise of Roethlisberger begin anew and with more fervent adamancy than ever before! The man behind the Steel Curtain came back into the game on Thursday night after an ugly ankle injury and played it out. While it was certainly admirable how Big Ben returned to play, Vinny Testaverde could suit up for the Steelers right now and win a half of football versus the Cleveland Browns—with two high ankle sprains, no less. I don’t mean to overstate the Browns’ ineptitude, but it seems their lack of play knows no bounds. Also, has Antonio Brown outperformed Mike Wallace, or is Wallace’s talent opening up the path for Brown? You decide, but next week I may sit Brandon Marshall or Greg Jennings for Brown. As for Cleveland … hey, there’s always next year.

Colts–Ravens
I can’t figure what to make of this game. On the one hand, you’ve got the Ravens coming out of it with another victory, and if they win out, they’ll get the number one seed. Run of the mill, right? Well, not so fast. This is the Colts! This team is purposely trying to lose the game and you, the best of the AFC, can only hang 24 points on them? Where was the offense? Where was the ball control? Somehow, the mighty Indianapolis Colts had almost 24 minutes of possession with no weapons and no will power. I’m sadly disappointed that the Ravens didn’t put a little bit of a harder stomp on them. For the Colts, see my Cleveland Browns analysis.

Buccaneers–Jaguars
Khaaaaaaaaaan! Surely it must be the new impending ownership that inspired the Jaguars to score 41 points when they were only averaging 12.7 points per game coming into the week, right? Surely it is that epic ‘stache that brought the MJD of 2009 back to score an inordinate amount (4) of touchdowns, right? Perhaps it was the might and prowess of Shadid Khan that scared the Bucs into a sickening slump in the early going of the second quarter. Whatever the reason, if I see more of that next week in the Georgia Dome, I’m going to feel a lot better about starting MJD in the championship round. For the Bucs, who are 1-8 since Week 5, there’s always next year!

P.S. I’m sensing a trend here. It’s amazing how clear the NFL all of a sudden gets around Week 12, isn’t it?

Raiders–Packers
Lucky for their fantasy owners, the Packers really want to go undefeated. They want it so badly that Rodgers was still in the game slinging the ball around well after everything was in hand. If I were Mike McCarthy, I would’ve had Rodgers, Jennings, and Finley on the bench after Grant’s touchdown, with a shade over seven minutes remaining in the first quarter. I understand wanting to win and playing your starters, but there is no need to risk your season and your franchise when you’re up by 31 points. For the Raiders, there’s always next year! I’m kidding; they’re obviously still in their division race. However, the Tebow seem to be predestined to be the AFC West team that gets bounced in the first week of the playoffs.

P.S. Watch for Darren McFadden’s return this week versus a middling Detroit defense in Oakland. It could be big.

Saints–Titans
I don’t believe that being outdoors has much of an effect on the Saints. Sure, they are 3-2 with much less impressive stats when outdoors this season. However, I think this has far more to do with not being in New Orleans than it has to do with being outside. The Saints seem less inspired when away from their adoring crowd and the Superdome, and this is why it was 3-3 at the half. It had nothing to do with playing under an open sky. That being said, the Saints got hot late (as they usually do in close competition), and Drew Brees brought Marques Colston to life with two sweet touchdown passes.

For the Titans, I’m confident that they would’ve won the game if Hasselbeck had been the quarterback on that final play. Locker looks to be the future in Tennessee, though, and if I were a Titans fan, I would be excited about that. He seems to have many of the same qualities of Vince Young without the immaturity and off-the-field issues.

Brees for MVP
Alright, you win. I’ll argue, but only because I love you so. Last week I told you that I believe Brees is the best quarterback of this era, that he’ll retire as the best of his contemporaries, and that this season will end with Brees as the top quarterback. But those three statements are all totally subjective and can’t really be proven. Pick your favorite quarterback and you can argue the same for him. Here is my case for Brees.

As many of you have pointed out, Rodgers is on a record-setting pace for single-season passer rating with 123.3 through 14 weeks, and Brees is only at 105.9. However, this is the only category in which Rodgers truly is head and shoulders above Brees. Here is the stat sheet for both quarterbacks:

As you can see, no other category is overwhelmingly in Rodger’s favor. More touchdowns and fewer interceptions on fewer pass attempts certainly gives Rodgers a strong and well deserved passer rating. However, you will also notice that Brees, the most accurate quarterback the world has ever seen, is edging Rodgers in completion percentage by a full point, made more impressive by Brees’ 80 more completions on 105 more attempts. If you look at total turnovers, Rodgers is only two better than Brees. You’ve also heard Tony Dungy live on television saying he’d never blame a quarterback for an interception. Fumbles however? Those are all the ball carrier’s fault.

MVP... MVP... MVP

These points are very nit-picky, but that’s how it has to be when comparing two phenomenal athletes who are playing the position at a higher efficiency and explosiveness than it has ever been played. Now for the point that matters most, the point I had in mind when I originally made my claim: What will truly determine who has the better season? The playoffs, of course. A Super Bowl appearance or win will make up for any edge either quarterback may have over the other at the end of Week 17. The Saints have had a couple of slip-ups, but they have ranked number-one overall in offense and 27th overall in defense (outranking New England and Green Bay in both categories). If Brees ends this season just behind Rodgers in stats, but with a second Super Bowl ring, then I don’t see how anyone could say Rodgers had the better season.

P.S . Let’s not even get started on Marino’s 29-year-old record that Brees will soon surpass, Johnny U’s consecutive games with a touchdown record that Brees could eclipse next season, and the completion percentage record that Brees already owns.

Bills–Chargers
For the Chargers, its start ‘em time. Rivers is Infinity times 2 in the month of December, and it doesn’t seem like that is going to change any time soon. I think the Tebow will win this division, but you won’t be able to say the Chargers didn’t try for a comeback. For the Bills, Steve Johnson continues to be the only player on the team I really want to start. I had such high hopes for Buffalo playing spoiler to the big boys in their division, but they simply do not know how to be a good team. Combine that with management that is interested in saving money rather than winning big, and you have an organization that will never succeed if things don’t change.

Bears–Tebow
As Tebowmania continues to rock the nation, I’ve heard many sports analysts exclaim, “The Bears played them well for 55 minutes! They had it! They were pressing the receivers and pressuring the quarterback! Why did they back off?! Why did they give up the sideline?!” I’ll tell you why. Because in the last five minutes of a game, Tim Tebow puts the fear of God in defensive coordinators. If you press the receivers and send blitzes, it leaves too many opportunities for heroics. In the mind of Lovie Smith, the only chance was to play coverage and hope to break up the passes and keep the runs short. The sideline was open because defenders were crowding the middle of the field to stop Tebow if he ran. Tebow may not have magic powers that make him the ultimate quarterback in the fourth quarter, but he has a tangible advantage in the fourth quarter as impending doom sets in for his opponents.

For the Bears, I have one word (sort of): Yikes. It is going to be hard to pass the Lions for second place in the division, and it isn’t even a sure thing that second place in the North will garner a wild-card spot. Cutler could’ve taken this team to the playoffs, but with so many other teams in the final stretch here…well, there’s always next year.

49ers–Cardinals
The Cardinals, not to be outdone by the Dolphins, are proving to be quite the spoiler team through the final stretch. Just one week after setting the Cowboys up for a potentially fatal loss to the Giants, the Cardinals added a rare tick to the “L” column for the Niners. San Francisco owns the tiebreaker, but if the immortal Ben Roethlisberger can find a way on Monday night next week, the Saints have a legitimate shot at a first-round bye. As for fantasy, there aren’t many on these teams that are performing week in and week out that you’d want to trust your playoffs to. This late in the season, I say go with who got you here. And if that means Larry Fitzgerald plays, then play him!

Texans–Bengals
How about that T.J. Yates? The most untalked-about rookie quarterback this year went into Cincinnati and beat a Bengals D that has been good all year and phenomenal at home. And he did it to the tune of 300 yards and two touchdowns on a day when his running game was mostly shut down. Not only that, but he notched a dramatic and much-coveted comeback win by throwing the game-winning touchdown with two seconds on the clock. For the Bengals, keep riding that A.J. Green wagon and don’t play another man.

Vikings–Lions
To say that Christian Ponder has struggled this season might be seen as an understatement. Still, he certainly has this offense performing at its best since Favre took it to the championship game two years ago. But then that’s as comforting as the faint praise the Jaguars get for shattering their 12-points-per-game average. What I saw was nearly a 50/50 split between Webb and Ponder in which Ponder looked better in every category except interceptions. If he could’ve kept his cool (tough to do against a Lions team full of thugs and ne’er-do-wells) he may very well have thrown his team to a “W” in Detroit. Ponder could get hot next week when the Saints come to town, but look for that to affect Gerhart and Harvin more than Ponder in fantasy. For the Lions, it’s a tough stretch ahead, but all should be good in the fantasy world as they are likely to get into three straight shootouts to end the season.

Eagles–Dolphins
Well, now that the Eagles are all but mathematically eliminated, they sure did look good against the Dolphins. These guys played spoiler to the spoilers! Look for the Eagles to light up the scoreboard in the final weeks to save the final scraps of their reputation as a dangerous offense. For the Dolphins, do you think Sparano had a situation like Coach Boone in Remember the Titans? One loss and you’re done, despite how awesome your team has been in previous weeks? Sure seems like it. I wonder how Sparano would fit with the Chiefs.

Chiefs–Jets
Not that we can ever try it out (each game is different), but I wonder what an actual competent offense would’ve done this day against these Chiefs. I mean, the Jets scored 37 points? Unless you started Mark Sanchez, you didn’t feel much of the benefit in the realm of fantasy, but it sure did look crazy on the score ticker. For Kansas City, I’m really looking forward to next year. If I’m a Chiefs fan, I’m very excited to see the talent retake the field after their injuries heal. Watch for the Chiefs to be in the thick of it as long as similar injuries don’t make an appearance next season.

Patkowskis–Redskins
The ‘kowskis once again handled the majority of the scoring for the Pats, but Welker did manage to squeeze a touchdown out of the Skins as well. I’ve run out of analysis on these Pats, and I refuse to give any credence to the Brady spat on the sidelines. If you haven’t figured it out yet, you really don’t want a New England running back in your lineup for the fantasy playoffs. For the Redskins, they’re going to try awfully hard to put a stop to Eli Manning and a Giants team that’s on a roll right now, but I wouldn’t feel too comfortable about starting any Redskins either.

P.S. Close your eyes and forget about Helu. As is well documented, it’ll bite you in the end if you stick with a Shanahan running back.

Falcons–Panthers
In defense of Aaron Rodgers, Matt Ryan threw for 320 yards, four touchdowns, and no picks, with a 58 completion percentage, and he still finished three points below Rodgers’ average passer rating for the season. The Falcons won through the air, but Michael Turner still got the ball 21 times. Turner has run hard and often for many years and just seems beaten up and worn down this season, and I wouldn’t be overly surprised if this year is his last. If so, it will be a sad day in Atlanta, as the Falcons haven’t proven that they can win without a heavy dose of Michael Turner.

For the Panthers, the future looks brighter every week. DeAngelo Williams and Jonathon Stewart are feeling the pain of losing John Fox, but Steve Smith is feeling the joy of gaining a real quarterback. Watch for the Panthers to pick high for a Julio Jones-esque wide receiver who will take this passing game to the elite level. For this year, however, I don’t know that I’d trust any Panther not named Cam with the keys to my fantasy season.

Giants–Cowboys
Oh those poor, poor Dallas Cowboys. How frustrating it must be to be Jerry Jones! He has watched squad after ultra-talented squad fail and sputter mentally as the seasons have wound down. Expect for frustrating play out of these Cowboys as long as they are in contention. If a catastrophic loss to the Bucs or Eagles occurs, watch for the Dallas offensive stars to take off as the games become meaningless and the pressure to succeed drops off. For the Giants, you have to love what you’re seeing out of the offense. Eli is looking the best he ever has, and this wide receiver corps may be the best that New York has ever seen. If they can shore up the defense a little and keep their nose clean until Week 17, they probably have the East in the books.

$#^% Chris Collinsworth Says
On the dominance of Jason Pierre-Paul:

“He’s just too much! You know, you’ve got to chip him, you know, the Cowboys just have to make the adjustment! There’s no way around it, you’re not going to block him one-on-one with anybody! I just haven’t seen it done all year. You watch him on tape enough and he’s like an octopus coming at you! Arms and legs, you think he’s got eight different arms flailing at you! Just… quick moves… a dynamic player!”

If the rest of the Giants D can play to the level of Pierre-Paul—who CC wisely pointed out, has yet to reach the apex of his game—then their path to the playoffs is clear. Wild Card Weekend for the NFC should be absolutely crazy.

Rams–Seahawks
I’m not going to honor this matchup with a lot of analysis. The game was terrible. As was brought up multiple times by the commentators, the Rams have placed ten cornerbacks on IR this season. And they have next to no talent on their roster, so you can’t expect much, if anything, from them. That lack of talent may extend beyond the roster. They had seven downs at the 1-yard line late in the fourth quarter on Monday night and only ran the ball on the first and seventh down. Instead of giving the ball to their best talent, they had their injured quarterback throwing to their C-class receiving corps. Spagnuolo may be the next coach to go after this performance. An empty space on your roster may be as valuable as most of the men on the field in this game.

And that’s it! Week 14 is in the books. I don’t know how much fantasy goodness will come from it, but I’m looking forward to the Ravens–Chargers matchup on Sunday Night next week. Also, your Cardinals, Lions, Raiders, Titans, Bengals, Saints, and Vikings should all have good fantasy weeks. Thank me later.

Welcome to the Tuesday Morning Buzz! Week 13 had nary a matchup without playoff implications in the NFL or in fantasy. Many players proved why they deserved your draft pick, and many others tried to prove why they deserve attention as a waiver-wire pick-up. With varying degrees of sanity, its time to get aggressive and start dropping those bench players for long-shot starters.

Eagles–Seahawks
If you have ever played in a Pick ‘Em league with confidence points, this game should’ve screamed, “Pick me! Pick me for 16 points!” The Seahawks were a three-point home dog against an Eagles team that is bailing water. Combine the short week, the emotional loss to the Patriots the week before, the travel distance, and the generally lackluster play, and you had a surefire bet to lose this game. The Seahawks are not a powerhouse. It’s dangerous to start looking for fantasy goodness among the 31 points scored, as 21 of them came from long runs and a pick six. I like Marshawn Lynch in Seattle against bad defenses, but I’m not too concerned about anyone else on this roster. Vick will likely come back for the Eagles next Monday, so hopefully his presence will bring some spark back to this offense as they play spoiler for the rest of the year.

Falcons–Texans
In contrast to Philly–Seattle, there was plenty of fantasy goodness for the winner of this game. You saw Arian Foster get another rushing touchdown, Yates looked like he can keep the offense afloat, one tight end got a lot of targets, the other got a touchdown, and Andre Johnson nearly got a hundred yards and would’ve had a touchdown or more if he could have kept it going. Unfortunately, he has now suffered from the rare double hammy pull. According to sports news of the day, this pull is much less severe, so he may back in two weeks.

For the Falcons, their winning formula is proving unsustainable. As stated many times in this column, the Falcons’ best option is to run more than pass. However, Michael Turner has been a workhorse for this team for years and is starting to show signs of weariness. Look for one of two things to happen: either Jason Snelling will step in and be serviceable (a great start in the fantasy playoffs if so), or the Falcons will rely heavily on their passing game and miss the playoffs in a fizzling blaze of glory.

Chiefs–Bears
You know, Tyler Palko’s first NFL touchdown may have been the most dubious first touchdown ever in the NFL. The Bears will frequently drop Urlacher deep into coverage when expecting a Hail Mary, but I don’t think the game plan was for Chris Conte to do a street-ball denial on him. Defenders are coached to bat down balls instead of intercepting them in some cases, usually when the punt return is likely to get better field position, but I don’t think the goal was to drop it right into McCluster’s breadbasket. Speaking of McCluster’s catch, did you see him anticipate the ball? He was crouched and ready to make a play on the ball in case it was batted into the air, and an instant later Palko was somehow credited with a touchdown. Despite all this, I think the fantasy result for both teams are the same: As long as the backups are in, sit everybody but the D.

Bengals–Steelers
I don’t think the Bengals will make the playoffs this year, and that is ok. This was supposed to be a rebuilding season for Cincinnati, yet they have been able to compete all season long in what may be the toughest division in football. A.J. Green is the only Bengal I feel comfortable starting in a standard league, but nevertheless, this is the most impressive I have seen the Bengals look in my adult life.

For the Steelers, it was business as usual…on steroids. Rashard Mendenhall rushed for two touchdowns, Mike Wallace caught two touchdowns, and Antonio Brown caught a long bomb and returned a punt for a touchdown. Look for the Steelers to continue to roll as they try to find a way to pass the Ravens for AFC North supremacy.

Titans–Bills
Do you think one of the Titans found Bugs Bunny’s bottle of Michael’s secret stuff (See Space Jam) and gave it to CJ2K? In the blink of an eye, Chris Johnson has transformed a regrettable season into a respectable playoff run in two games. It’s unlikely that the Titans will be able to pass the Texans for a playoff bid, but they have had a season very much like Cincinnati’s in that they have performed vastly outside of their expectations. I’m starting CJ2K in all formats until something changes.

For the Bills, Steve Johnson salvaged his fantasy day with a late touchdown to keep the score respectable, but this game was all Titans in Buffalo. It’s a shame that the Bills didn’t have the lasting power or the will to win to keep up their magic from early on; I would’ve loved to see a Buffalo team that competed for 17 weeks.

Tebow–Vikings
As stated last week, Tim Tebow isn’t a great quarterback. However, I think he provides more of a spark to an offense than, say, a Jake Delhomme did. In case you’ve forgotten, John Fox coached the Delhomme-helmed Panthers to a Super Bowl in a very similar situation to what is now developing in Denver. Watch for the Broncos to win their division and one playoff game.

For the Vikings, Christian Ponder looked great, despite the turnovers. He hasn’t had the season of Cam Newton or Andy Dalton, but he’s embedded himself just as deeply into his franchise’s future plans. Look for Ponder to continue to improve as the season rolls along and for Harvin to become a factor in the fantasy playoffs because of it.

Feeling good with Gronkowski.

Colts–Patkowskis
While watching this game, I wrote in my notes, “Garcon: In case you were considering, no.” Against the Pats, these Colts nearly outscored their total points of the past four weeks. However, I wouldn’t count on this kind of production again from a team that takes five weeks to score fifty points. Granted, one of those weeks was a bye, but this team has no chance this year.

For New England, nearly every point was placed on the scoreboard by a -kowski. Only Green-Ellis fought the good fight and put a stop to this kowski-dominated offense. If you own Brady or Gronkowski, you’re probably feeling good headed into your playoffs, as the Tebow are the only semi-viable challenge to the Pats’ scoring tendencies.

Raiders–Dolphins
While watching this game, I wrote in my notes, “Housh: In case you were considering, no.” Reggie Bush, however, yes. He’s got three fantastic matchups coming up against the Eagles, Bills, and Pats. In week 17 he has to run against the Jets, but if they are out of the hunt, who knows how hard they’ll play. I wouldn’t consider Matt Moore unless you’re truly desperate; and if you’re truly desperate you probably aren’t competing in the playoffs, so maybe you feel froggy and give him a chance. I say if you’ve got nothing but pride on the line, you should go for it! Fortune favors the bold.

For the Raiders, forget this game. Don’t forget how bad the Raiders have looked over the past few weeks, however. This team sorely misses their starters, and hopefully they’ll catch a break and get McFadden back this week against a porous Green Bay defense. The Raiders are the last gasp of hope for those rooting against a perfect season for the Packers. And it would be just like the unpolished and dirty Raiders to go into Lambeau and hand the Pack an L. I’m not saying it will happen, I’m just saying that I wouldn’t be surprised.

Jets–Redskins
While watching this game, I wrote in my notes, “Shonn Greene: In case you were considering, no.” Ok, so you’re catching on now: same joke, different ingredients. Despite that, it’s true. And I wouldn’t be totally surprised if Greene is unable to total this output in his remaining games. I don’t like starting any Jets, but I really don’t like Greene. There’s no way I would put my fantasy playoffs in his hands.

For the Redskins, well, I guess there isn’t no way I’d start Greene in the playoffs. If it came down to Greene or Helu, I would probably play matchups. Helu got all the carries on Sunday, but can he be started in the playoffs with Shanahan as his coach? My other options would have to be pretty awful. Helu is a great talent, but Shanahan simply enjoys lying about his running backs. He feels it gives him a competitive advantage. I want to say that Helu is a great start when the Patkowskis come to town next week, but I just can’t shake the feeling that he’ll end up with the third most carries on the team.

Panthers–Buccaneers
It’s no wonder that Cam Newton is as popular as Dubstep. He’s the real deal! He leads the league in rushing touchdowns. In fact, he has more rushing touchdowns in a single season than any quarterback in the history of the NFL, and I bet he has four or five more in him. I would start Aaron Rodgers ahead of Newton only because his team is more guaranteed to play a full 60 minutes. Look for Newton to be an epic draft prospect next year.

For the Bucs, this has been a throwaway season. If you can avoid Tampa as a whole through the playoffs, I most definitely would.

Ravens–Browns
Well, Peyton Hillis returned to form this week on the stat sheet. However, five of his nine fantasy points came on one reception in busted coverage. I want to say that Hillis is going to be a great waiver-wire pick-up or buy-low candidate for the remainder of the season, but I just can’t endorse it. It is just too iffy to ever rely on a Cleveland Brown.

For the Ravens, they played on their own level instead of to the level of their opponent. For what seemed like the first time this season, they came out of the gate strong and maintained that intensity in defeat of a team that doesn’t have half their talent.

Cowboys–Cardinals
Ok, one more. In case you were considering Andre Roberts, no. At least not until his ability is proven through consecutive games. As the top teams begin to rest starters, he may be a late-season pick-up, but I wouldn’t trust him at all outside of that.

For the Boys, they are so lucky the Giants had the hateful schedule they had. I like the Cowboys. I like Tony Romo, I like Dez Bryant, and I love Demarco Murray. However, the team as a whole always seems to lack the mental toughness to bring it all home. I think the offensive stars will continue to win games for owners all the way through Week 17, but I think Romo will be playing armchair quarterback in January.

Rams–49ers
Well, Michael Crabtree and Alex Smith have transformed into a dynamic NFL duo. I won’t speculate on who is Batman and who is Robin, but I am very proud of Alex Smith. I can only hope that Jason Campbell and Matt Leinart are afforded this same chance eventually.

For the Rams, it is now complete ineptitude on offense. I think Bradford and Steven Jackson are both studs, and I think Bradford will become one of the premiere quarterbacks in the league if management can build a team around him. To be fair, I don’t think the Rams are as bad as their points-allowed stat implies, but there are at least 25 other DSTs I’d rather start.

Packers–Giants
In my estimation, Nelson and Jennings combine to form the best wide receiver duo in the NFL. Both rack up inordinate amounts of yards and touchdowns being on a team with as many options as the Packers have. Hey, hey, remember the beginning of the year when I was theorizing about which Green Bay running back you want? Oh, man! Just say that phrase out loud: “Green Bay running backs.” Sounds ridiculous.

For the Giants, I’m confident they will win their division. It’s likely that the Cowboys will classically stub their toe in one of their non-New York matchups in Week 15 or 16—my money is on Tampa Bay in Week 15. Watch for Eli Manning to save both the Giants’ season and Tom Coughlin’s career in the coming weeks.

Lions–Saints
Wow! Has the inexperience of the Detroit Lions ever been as obvious as in the past two weeks? This team simply does not know how to win. They have the talent to win, they have the coaching staff to win, but they just don’t have the mindset to win. Stupid penalty after stupid penalty, including the rarely seen contact with an official, kept the Lions in their own way. Collinsworth astutely brought up that they were unlikely to win against Brees even without the penalties, but the miscues sure didn’t help.

For the Saints, the race is on to pass San Francisco. One game back from a round-one bye, the Saints are hoping the Steelers and the hated Seahawks can put two more ticks in the loss column for the Niners. As for the New Orleans receiving corps, Meachem, Henderson, and Moore all share too much time to be trusted in the playoffs. But if you have to use one, I’d go with Moore.

P.S. I’m not going to argue with you about it, but I believe Drew Brees is the best quarterback in the NFL. I think, compared with his contemporaries, he will retire with the best career, have the best single season, and be the best quarterback of this season when it’s all said and done.

$#^% Chris Collinsworth Says
“Take it from a guy who cheated his whole career, you just can’t do it!”

Masked behind this classic admission of foul play was a great point. If you want to win in the NFL, you can’t just go around stomping on dudes and pushing refs. Just like the Raiders, these Lions lack maturity but are talented enough to be tied for first in their division.

Chargers–Jaguars
The Chargers are always vexing, but this year’s version has been as hard to figure out as the lyrics to those NFL Play 60 commercials. What the heck are those kids saying about the bus anyway? For this night at least, the Chargers looked like the squad I picked to win the Super Bowl. With their offensive weapons healthy, they did what they wanted all game long.

For the Jags, there were signs of life, but this team has forgotten about a winning season. There may be too much upside to MJD to drop him or sit him; but I’d rather start Colt McCoy than Blaine Gabbert, and I’d rather start Pierre Garcon and have no WR2 than start any two Jacksonville receivers.

P.S. How wild is it that the top two overall picks may come to the AFC South next April?

And that’s it! Week 13 is all wrapped up. Look for your Steelers, Raiders, and Dolphins (read: Reggie Bush) to have a big Week 14. Thanks for reading, and be sure to check back next week as the fantasy playoffs get underway.