|
Fantasy Football Strategy, Advice, and Commentary |
|
 By: Dave Stringer — September 28, 2010 @ 9:56 am
QUARTERBACKS
Moving Up
Joe Flacco, Ravens
Last week he was moving down. This week he’s moving up, proving I can reverse field quicker than Barry Sanders. My, how quickly things change. Flacco got untracked against the Browns this week, going 22 of 31 for 262 yards, along with three touchdowns to Anquan Boldin. While I’m not ready to anoint him a surefire starter on a weekly basis, I’m certainly more comfortable starting him now than I was after the Bengals game. Let’s call him a matchup quarterback for now since, hey, it was the Browns.
Kyle Orton, Broncos
I am forced to put Orton here, largely against my own will. I am typing but I do not control my fingers. And I’m not even inebriated. There are no excuses. The stats pour out at me. The Broncos lead the league in passing offense. Orton is the fourth-ranked fantasy quarterback. Passing yards: 1,078. Passing touchdowns: 4. When will I regain control of my functions? When will Orton play like the Orton we know? When will normalcy return?
Sam Bradford, Rams
Rookie quarterbacks are always a crapshoot in fantasy football, but Bradford is shaping up as a decent option after three weeks, even with the Rams getting horrible play from their wide receivers. He has a touchdown pass in every game (four in total) and is averaging a respectable 218 passing yards per game. Not great, but serviceable. Here’s the kicker: Coming up, he has the Seahawks, Lions, Chargers, Bucs, and Panthers. With the byes starting this week, Bradford shapes up as a solid backup option at quarterback.
Moving Down
Brett Favre, Vikings
It’s official—Favre and the Vikings passing attack are struggling badly in 2010. Whether Favre or the team’s wide receivers are to blame should be of no concern to Favre’s fantasy owners. Simply put, the Vikings can’t consistently gain yards through the air, and their passing attack is a shell of its former self. Sidney Rice is on the PUP; Bernard Berrian is MIA; and there are more developments on the injury front, with Favre saying that he had a stinger in his (presumably) non-throwing shoulder and tight end Visanthe Shiancoe suffering a leg injury, believed to be a hamstring pull. At this point, Favre is a fantasy backup at best.
Donovan McNabb, Redskins
Thus far in 2010, McNabb has been a bit of a disappointment in Washington, both in terms of his actual play and in his fantasy production. He’s been bad against the Cowboys, good against the Texans, and mediocre against the Rams. The part that concerns me the most is being mediocre against the Rams. Throwing for 232 yards on 19 of 32 passes with a touchdown and a pick against St. Louis is definitely a big downer for his fantasy owners. He’s a matchup play at this point…and maybe not even that. He couldn’t take advantage of a Rams secondary that was starting second-year cornerback Bradley Fletcher (who missed most of his rookie year with an injury) and was without their best defensive back, free safety O.J. Atogwe, for much of the game.
David Garrard, Jaguars
Garrard has failed to top 200 yards passing in his three games this season, throwing for 170, 173, and 105 yards in games against the Broncos, Chargers, and Eagles. With head coach Jack Del Rio clearly needing some wins to salvage his job, it’s fair to ask how much longer he will stick with Garrard as his starting quarterback. In fact, Luke McCown may have taken over this week had he not suffered a season-ending torn ACL during Week 2. Garrard’s only saving grace is that Todd Bouman was signed to back him up, and he’s clearly not the long-term answer at quarterback in Jacksonville. Of course, with each passing week, Garrard is proving he isn’t the answer either.
RUNNING BACKS
Moving Up
Peyton Hillis, Browns
With Jerome Harrison out for this week’s road game against the Ravens, Hillis stepped up with a 22-carry, 144-yard, one-touchdown performance that may have solidified his place as the Browns top running back. It didn’t hurt that he also chipped in seven receptions for 36 yards on just eight targets. Not many running backs get 100 yards on the Ravens, and fewer yet do it in Baltimore. While Hillis will never be mentioned with any of the better running backs in the league, he continues to prove that he can be productive when given an opportunity.
Ryan Torain, Redskins
I picked up Keiland Williams on waivers in a salary-cap league last week and debated signing him to long-term contract, but I had the nagging suspicion that maybe he wasn’t really a sleeper. Maybe he was just on the roster as a third-down running back who contributed on special teams. Maybe the Redskins would add Ryan Torain from the practice squad and he would be the real sleeper in the Redskins backfield. Didn’t he look good before he suffered a season-ending injury in his one start in Denver when Mike Shanahan was the head coach? What did it all mean? How could I figure this out? Then I checked the NFL ticker and saw the Redskins had signed Torain to the active roster. Grrr. Then he went out and got 46 yards on seven carries with Clinton Portis nailed to the bench for most of the second half. Double Grrr.
BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Patriots
Now we know why the Patriots traded away perennial tease Laurence Maroney to the Broncos, along with a sixth round pick for only a fourth round selection in next year’s draft. It’s because of the man with four names. Finally let loose by the Patriots offensive schemers, Green-Ellis pumped out 98 yards and a touchdown on 16 carries and caught one pass for six yards against Buffalo. The only caveat was that he got most of the playing time after Fred Taylor left the game having aggravated a toe injury. On the plus side, the Bills contained Taylor before he left (six carries, 16 yards) and Green-Ellis clearly outperformed him. Were the Patriots coaches watching?
Justin Forsett, Seahawks
Forsett was hardly dynamic this week against the Chargers, with 20 touches for 94 yards. However, the key stat is the distribution of the touches among Forsett, Julius Jones, and Leon Washington. Jones didn’t touch the ball and Washington had a just single carry, so it looks like the running-back-by-committee approach is dead in Seattle—at least for now. While Forsett seems unlikely to have a breakout campaign given the Seahawks troubles on offense, he moves into low-end RB2, high-end RB3 status for the moment. Plus, he makes for a great option at the flex position.
Marshawn Lynch, Bills
In Bizzaro World…err, Buffalo, what’s down is up, what’s up is down. Lynch was supposed to be third string, but he’s the lead back. Fred Jackson was supposed to hold the fort until C.J. Spiller was ready to carry the load, but he’s the third-down guy. Spiller was supposed to be the backup and spell Jackson plus get plenty of work in specialized packages, but he’s barely been seen. It’s hard to get too excited over Lynch starting or over his production (143 rushing yards on 30 carries over the last two games), but he is the lead man for the time being. With plenty of injures at running back, Lynch is a decent option if you’re hurting at that position.
Maurice Morris, Kevin Smith, Lions
That’s only if Jahvid Best is hurt. Morris is mediocrity defined, and Smith is coming off a torn ACL suffered last year and has yet to dress in 2010. No, I’m not excited by either guy, but if Best is out, they are worth owning. Good luck figuring out which one to grab.
Kenneth Darby, Rams
That’s only if Steven Jackson is hurt. There’s a reason the Rams are reported to have interest in Larry Johnson, even though he looked washed up for the Redskins. It’s because they’ve been trying to replace Darby for two years because he’s not very good.
Moving Down
 Shanahan is killing Portis' value. Clinton Portis, Redskins
Something happened on the way to Portis getting his season on track during this week’s game against the Rams. Despite running well in the first half, Portis was nailed to the bench in favor of his backup Keiland Williams…err, make that Ryan Torain in another episode of “Which Running Back Will Mike Shanahan Use.”
Brandon Jacobs, Giants
Hey, hey, hey, the Giants gave Ahmad Bradshaw almost all the touches this week against the Titans. Maybe it was a one week punishment for Jacobs pitching his helmet into the stands and blasting reporters. Or maybe it’s a trend, since Jacobs received four touches in Week 2 and five this week. At this point, Jacobs shapes up as Bradshaw’s backup, spelling him when he needs a breather and maybe getting some goal-line work.
Michael Bush, Raiders
Bush returned to action this week and got three carries for 14 yards. So, now we have a better idea of how the Oakland coaches will split the carries between Darren McFadden and Bush. What we don’t know is whether McFadden will continue his history of being unable to remain healthy. It says here that we can expect a McFadden injury at some point in 2010, which makes Bush worth hanging onto for now.
Kareem Huggins, Buccaneers
We keep hearing that Huggins is going to get some touches. Then we see Earnest Graham getting some touches. Then we see LeGarrette Blount leapfrog Huggins to get some touches. But what we never see is Huggins getting any touches. Don’t let your eyes deceive you. I’m not an overly bright person (at least that’s what my wife tells me on a regular basis) but I do know that no touches always means no production.
WIDE RECEIVERS
Moving Up
Lance Moore, Saints
As I stated last week, Moore is the Saints player who gained the most fantasy value with Reggie Bush out of the lineup. While I have never been a big fan of Moore, he does produce when given the opportunity; it’s just that he’s not good enough to get a solid opportunity unless the Saints lose another player to injury. Of course, I like him better today more than ever, just because he made me look good. Here’s what you need to know: In 2008, when Bush and wide receiver Marques Colston missed several games, Moore responded with a career season, catching 79 passes for 928 yards and a whopping 10 touchdowns. With Robert Meachem and Devery Henderson continuing to disappoint and with Bush out, Moore figures to be a big part of the game plan over the next several weeks.
Austin Collie, Colts
Meet 2010’s current top fantasy football wide receiver, and not just by a little. Collie is 12 points ahead of Anquan Boldin, the next highest ranked wide receiver. With both Pierre Garcon and Anthony Gonzalez out with injuries, Collie went wild against the Broncos, catching 12 passes for 171 yards and two touchdowns. He is now on pace to finish the year with 144 receptions for 1,915 yards and 21 touchdowns. Odds of that happening: zero. Still, you get the drift. Plus, it’s important to note that the Colts have struggled to run the ball, other than against the Giants. And their running production in that game was a mirage, as New York used their nickel package as their base defense. Plus, we found out this week just how bad the Giants run defense is during their loss to the Titans.
Roy Williams, Cowboys
Williams owners, repeat after me: Sell High. Sell High. Sell High. Williams was a starter-worthy option at wide receiver this week and would have been in Week 1 as well if not for Alex Barron’s horrendous holding penalty that nullified a Williams touchdown reception. This week, he took advantage of the Texans secondary, catching five passes for 117 yards and two touchdowns. Perhaps most importantly, he finally seems to be on the same page as quarterback Tony Romo. While Williams won’t come close to matching this production on a weekly basis, he is developing into a decent option at the flex position based on the matchup. Nonetheless, if you can sell high, do so now.
Moving Down
Vincent Jackson, Chargers
Two deadlines have now come and gone without Jackson being traded. The next one will come after his suspension ends and before the trade deadline expires, a period of only two days. What makes you think Chargers general manager A.J. Smith will lower his demands? Failing that, what makes you think that another general manager will meet Smith’s demands if none have yet? Jackson’s almost certainly down for the count in 2010. Move on.
Robert Meachem, Saints
So much for Meachem being a breakout candidate at wide receiver in the Saints high-powered offense. It certainly looks like the toe injury that cost him time in the preseason has held him back during the first three weeks of the season. In 2010, Meachem has been targeted just seven times, catching four passes for 38 yards. With Lance Moore having a breakout game this week and the team utilizing both Jeremy Shockey and David Thomas at the tight end position, Meachem has become a forgotten man in the Saints offense. Until that changes, you should consider him a forgotten man as well.
TIGHT ENDS
Moving Up
Aaron Hernandez, Patriots
Hernandez has come on over the last two games, catching six balls against both the Jets and the Bills while totaling 166 receiving yards. For the season, he has 13 receptions for 211 yards and is on pace to finish the year with 1,125 yards. While that won’t happen, he’s definitely shaping up as a key cog in the Patriots passing attack, and he has emerged as a solid replacement for injured running back Kevin Faulk on checkdowns.
Tony Moeaki, Chiefs
With the Chiefs passing attack having one decent game out of three, it’s hard to get overly excited about the team’s options at wide receiver and tight end. However, Moeaki, a rookie third-round draft pick, has been a surprise, with 12 receptions for 129 yards and a pair of touchdowns. He’s not starter-worthy just yet, but given the struggles the Chiefs are having at wide receiver, Moeaki has some upside as a TE2.
Ben Watson, Browns
Watson has been a perennial tease over the course of his career, a player with excellent physical abilities who has been unable to translate that into production in the passing game. When he signed with Cleveland in the offseason, most fantasy pundits (me included) wrote off the possibility of him being a useful fantasy tight end. However, the opposite has occurred, with Watson catching nine passes for 109 yards and a touchdown over the last two weeks. While he’s clearly not yet starter-worthy, he is getting enough opportunity to warrant backup tight end status.
Moving Down
Brent Celek, Eagles
I still like him, but come on, man! Celek has been persona non grata despite the Eagles offensive explosion over the last two and a half games. At this point, he is the biggest fantasy bust amongst tight ends, with a paltry nine receptions for 101 yards. Plus, he hasn’t found the end zone. Don’t sell low on him, but clearly he’s in the Moving Down category.
By: Dave Stringer — September 21, 2010 @ 8:26 pm
 Bush can't shake the injury bug. New Orleans Saints running back Reggie Bush left the team’s road game against San Francisco Monday night with a leg injury and did not return.
Bush was injured while recovering a muffed punt midway through the fourth quarter of the Saints 25-22 victory over the 49ers. With the wind swirling at Candlestick Park, punt returners for both teams had difficulty fielding punts.
ESPN is now reporting that Bush suffered a fractured fibula and will be out 4-6 weeks.
The most likely scenario is that Bush will miss six weeks. With the Saints bye scheduled for Week 10, such a scenario would result in Bush missing six regular-season games.
In 2009, New Orleans used the running back trio of Pierre Thomas, Mike Bell, and Bush. However, the Saints chose not to match the offer sheet Bell received from the Eagles. In addition, Lynell Hamilton, who was expected to replace Bell, suffered a torn ACL in the preseason and was placed on season-ending injured reserve.
Former Packers running back DeShawn Wynn was added to the roster on August 23rd, and the Saints also have undrafted rookie free agent Chris Ivory, who is currently out with a knee injury.
Fantasy Impact
While Bush has not lived up to his lofty draft status or fulfilled the expectations that many had for him coming out of USC, he nonetheless is a key cog in New Orleans’ high-powered offence. He creates mismatches for opposing defences, forcing coordinators to commit extra defenders to him much of the time.
Now the Saints have a pair of unknown commodities in Wynn and Ivory at running back.
While with Green Bay, Wynn had a reputation for being an undisciplined player who lacked conditioning. At Florida, he failed to top 700 rushing yards in any of his four seasons there. He is a powerful runner but lacks top-end speed.
Ivory graduated from Tiffin University after spending three years at Washington State. He had injury problems for much of his college career and was dismissed from Washington State for violating team rules. He has decent size and good speed, running a reported 4.47 in the 40-yard dash at his pro day.
Given Wynn and Ivory’s lack of experience, the Saints are unlikely to rely on either player other than to briefly spell Thomas. In fact, fullback Heath Evans could be called upon as the primary back-up to Thomas.
Alternatively, it would not be surprising if New Orleans were to acquire a veteran free agent to bolster the position. Ladell Betts was released in the team’s final cuts and could possibly be re-signed.
In the receiving game, look for Lance Moore to be utilized in more formations. Moore has had success when given an opportunity and is best suited to replace Bush in most of the plays in which the Saints used him. In 2008, when Bush and wide receiver Marques Colston missed several games, Moore responded with a career season, catching 79 passes for 928 yards and a whopping 10 touchdowns.
From a fantasy perspective, the player who gains the most from Bush being out is clearly Moore. Consider him a decent option as a flex player in fantasy leagues that use that position.
By: Dave Stringer — September 17, 2010 @ 11:46 am
1. Michael Vick had a huge performance in his first extended playing time since his return to the league last season. Eagles head coach Andy Reid’s comment that Kevin Kolb will start this week provided he is healthy didn’t exactly address who would be the team’s starter over the balance of the season. Kind of reminiscent of his comment that Donovan McNabb was the team’s starting quarterback not long before he shipped him off to Washington. Kolb owners who were expecting him to be a worthy fantasy starter would be well served to acquire a solid backup in short order.
 No threat to Moreno. 2. There is a lot of speculation out of Denver that Laurence Maroney will quickly assert himself and earn a large share of the work out of the Broncos backfield. Knowshon Moreno owners surely weren’t impressed but it says here that his move is more directed at Correll Buckhalter’s performance. The 32-year old Buckhalter seems to have lost a step and Maroney may take away his touches in short order. None of the three players play on special teams so it would seem unlikely that all three would dress on game day which reduces the risk of head coach Josh McDaniels utilizing all three on game day, which would render them all useless from a fantasy perspective.
3. Mike Thomas of the Jaguars was listed as a starter on the depth chart at wide receiver entering training camp and managed to hold onto the job throughout the preseason. He performed well in Week 1 against the Broncos, catching six passes for 89 yards, helping to solidify his starting position. This week, Jacksonville placed Jarett Dillard, Thomas’ main competition for a starting position, on injured reserve with a stress fracture in his foot, which all but guarantees that Thomas will remain in the starting line-up for the remainder of the season provided he can stay healthy.
4. Keeping Falcons wide receiver Roddy White on your fantasy roster is clearly a no-brainer but should a ridiculous offer come your way, you might want to hold off on accepting until Michael Jenkins returns from injury. Although Jenkins is hardly going to eat into White’s targets when both are healthy, White was targeted a whopping 23 times during the team’s Week 1 loss to the Steelers with Jenkins out of the line-up. If White gets anything approaching that many targets on a weekly basis, he is all but guaranteed to average roughly 15 fantasy points per game in regular formats.
5. The Cowboys rushing attack looked pretty mediocre during the team’s Week 1 loss to the Redskins and that result wasn’t exactly surprising given that the team was missing two starters on the offensive line. Look for a better performance moving forward as both right tackle Marc Colombo and left guard Kyle Kosier are expected back in the starting lineup this week. Unfortunately, it appears the team will have a three-headed fantasy monster on their hands with Marion Barber, Felix Jones and Tashard Choice splitting the workload, making none of the three viable fantasy options other than perhaps in deep leagues that employ the flex position.
6. Looks like an injury has resolved the issue of how the Colts were going to allocate playing time at wide receiver opposite Reggie Wayne. In his first game back since missing almost all of 2009, Anthony Gonzalez suffered a high ankle sprain and the team has not disclosed how long they expect him to be out. Austin Collie went gangbusters in Week 1 against the Texans catching 11 of his targets for 163 yards and a score while Pierre Garcon caught just three of his 11 targets for 43 yards, including a three drops with one coming in the end zone. While Garcon may have more upside and for some unknown reason seems to be the sexier player to have on your fantasy roster, Collie is far more reliable and more productive. If you’ve got a chance to grab, do so fast.
7. The Vikings receivers looked pretty pathetic during the team’s Week 1 loss to the Saints. In particular, Bernard Berrian looked completely disinterested while Percy Harvin appeared to be more rusty than anything, although he didn’t always seem to be on the same page with quarterback Brett Favre. There are rumblings that Chargers wide receiver Vincent Jackson could be on his way to Minnesota but if that doesn’t materialize, Greg Camarillo should be considered a decent option in larger PPR leagues. And just maybe he puts up a big game this week as his former team, the Dolphins, comes to Minnesota.
8. New Seahawks head coach Pete Carroll has created a three-headed running back fantasy monster in Seattle by splitting the carries almost evenly amongst Justin Forsett, Julius Jones and Leon Washington. If that hadn’t pretty much extinguished the hope that Forsett would emerge as a breakout fantasy threat in 2010, then the current state of the offensive line will. This week, the Seahawks placed starting right guard Max Unger on injured reserve. The 2009 2nd round pick, who started every game last year as a rookie, suffered a toe injury during Seattle’s opening week win over the 49ers and will be replaced by Eagles castoff Stacey Andrews. Rookie left tackle Russell Okung will miss at least one more with a high ankle sprain. With injury-prone Chris Spencer starting at center and left guard Mike Gibson having made his first start last week, there are plenty of question marks along the team’s offensive line. If there’s a team in your willing to overpay for Forsett, move him now.
9. Don’t be fooled by Tim Hightower’s opening week fantasy performance during the Cardinals road win over the Rams. At first glance, the numbers look good and might have you thinking he’s well on his way to holding off Beanie Wells for the starting job. Not so fast. First off, it was against the Rams. Second, he fumbled twice and lost both, including an inexcusable fumble late in the fourth quarter. Third, he lost playing time to LaRod Stephens-Howling for much of the game. If anything, Hightower’s performance likely means Wells be in the starting line-up sooner rather than later.
 Why all the fuss? 10. Why all the fuss about Chargers wide receiver Vincent Jackson having his suspension reduced from six to four games if he is traded to another team? The Chargers didn’t have to put him the roster-exempt list prior to the season but they chose to do so. With a deadline looming to trade him prior to his roster-exempt status beginning, the Chargers failed to find a trading partner. There’s little reason to think that a team will step forward and meet their demands now.|
11. So much for the Cowboys easing rookie first round pick Dez Bryant into the offense. After missing much of the preseason with an ankle injury, it was expected that the Cowboys would use Bryant somewhat sparingly over the first part of the season. However, he was targeted 12 times in his debut, catching eight passes for 56 yards. If they’re going to throw numerous wide receiver screens to him, he will be mighty attractive in PPR leagues. Looks like Roy Williams fantasy value will take a hit much sooner than expected.
12. Keeping with wide receiver that were injury concerns entering the season, Wes Welker put the worries of his fantasy owners to rest in Week 1, catching eight passes for 64 yards and two touchdowns. Welker commented during the week that he wasn’t at 100% and that the bulky knee brace he wore hindered his cutting ability but he overcame those obstacles with a nice performance. Julian Edelman had some upside if Welker was limited but his fantasy value is pretty much nil if the Patriots are healthy at wide receiver. In redraft leagues, there’s no point in keeping Edelman on your roster.
By: Dave Stringer — September 15, 2010 @ 11:25 am
 The Green Bay Packers suffered a major blow in their Week 1 win over the Eagles in Philadelphia. The team has announced that starting running back Ryan Grant will miss the remainder of the season after injuring his right ankle.
Grant’s loss is a huge blow to a Packers team with Super Bowl aspirations in 2010. He is one of the few workhorse running backs in the league and has carried the bulk of the load at the position since taking over as the team’s starter at the midpoint of the 2007 season.
A powerful runner with enough speed to break long runs, Grant has been a perfect fit in Green Bay. Since taking over as the lead back, he has rushed for 3,430 yards and 23 touchdowns in 42 games.
With Grant out, the Packers will turn to Brandon Jackson. Taken in the second round of the 2006 draft, Jackson has not lived up to expectations in Green Bay.
In his first three years with the Packers, Jackson has just 626 rushing yards. He’s mainly fulfilled the pass catching role out of the backfield for most of his career but has failed to excel in that capacity, retaining his roster spot mostly because of his pass blocking ability, which allows the team to put either four wide receivers or three wide receivers and a tight end in patterns on passing downs.
The team has signed Dimitri Nance, an undrafted rookie free agent, from the Falcons practice squad. James Starks, picked in the sixth round of this year’s draft, is on the physically unable to perform list and will mist at least the first six weeks of the season.
Fantasy Impact
After underperforming for his entire career, Jackson finally gets an opportunity to step into the lead back role in Green Bay. However, the best indicator of future performance is past performance so expectations for Jackson should be held in check.
The Packers coaches have chosen to use Jackson less as his career has gone on. His touches have decreased every year he has been in the league, from 91 to 75 to 58.
It’s safe to assume that trend would have continued in 2010 had Grant not went down.
On the plus side, with no proven player currently behind him on the depth chart, Jackson figures to receive the majority of touches out of the backfield. He should be considered a RB3 with upside in most leagues and a decent flex option in leagues that employ the position.
However, acquiring him is not without risk. Look for Green Bay to scour the free agent market for a veteran running back or perhaps acquire one via a trade. Ahman Green, who split time with Jackson as the team’s top backup for the last half of 2009, is an obvious candidate to be re-signed. Buffalo Bills running Marshawn Lynch, rumoured to be available in a trade ever since the team selected C.J. Spiller in the first round of this year’s draft, is a similar player to Grant and would make sense in Green Bay.
If a veteran isn’t added to the mix, look for either Nance or Starks to get an opportunity at some point in 2010 with Starks likely the better option. The rookie from the University of Buffalo is a skilled but injury-prone player who has the talent to play in the league provided he can stay healthy.
By: Dave Stringer — September 14, 2010 @ 5:33 pm
QUARTERBACKS
Moving Up
Matt Hasselbeck, Seahawks
While I’m certainly not sold, Hasselbeck and his cast of questionable wide receivers came through in Week 1 against a 49ers defense that came out inexplicably flat. Hasselbeck went 18 of 23 for 170 yards and two touchdowns and chipped in a rushing touchdown to boot (note that it’s a sad commentary on your running backs when you call a quarterback sneak with a 34-year old, injury-prone QB with a history of back problems).
Jay Cutler, Bears
The whispers that Cutler could be a decent fantasy starter will grow into a chorus after his Week 1 performance against the leaky Lions defense. Cutler started shaky but finished with 372 passing yards and a pair of touchdowns with an interception. Cutler made some questionable decisions and the offensive line needs to improve however, if Cutler gets protection, the Bears passing game should be dynamic.
Moving Down
Trent Edwards, Bills
Edwards looked good in the preseason, shedding his propensity to check down while opening up the Bills offense with solid production in the passing game. The question was whether he would continue to do so once the regular season began. Well, the lights came on and he was in full Captain Checkdown mode, going 18 for 34 for a paltry 139 yards and a touchdown. With the game winding down and the Bills needing big chunks of yardage, he checked down on four consecutive passes to end the game, proving that some people never change.
Matt Schaub, Texans
You generally shouldn’t read too much into the opening week of the season but the way Arian Foster ran against the Colts, it seems abundantly clear that the Texans will throw far less frequently than they did in 2009, when Schaub finished with a league-leading, 4,770 passing yards. He’s clearly not a player that should be unloaded but the odds of him finishing as a top five fantasy quarterback look a lot less likely after watching Foster’s performance.
RUNNING BACKS
Moving Up
Arian Foster, Texans
What is there to say? The top fantasy performer of the week and if you had him in your lineup, you almost certainly would have won with a 41 point outing courtesy of a Texans’ record 231 rushing yards and three touchdowns. Foster looked like the real deal, repeatedly shredding the Colts suspect run defense. Move him up to RB1 status and try to grab him if his owner isn’t a believer.
Matt Forte, Bears
Anybody who gambled that Forte would get the lions share of the touches over Chester Taylor was rewarded in Week 1. Forte shredded the Lions defense, catching seven passes for 151 yards and two touchdowns to go along with 50 rushing yards on 17 carries. Granted, it was the Lions but Forte looks like a solid play against everything except the league’s top defenses.
Darren McFadden, Raiders
With Michael Bush and the Raiders fell behind early, McFadden had his most productive day since his second game as a pro, finishing with 95 rushing yards and 55 receiving yards and one touchdown against the Titans. Although he isn’t likely to get the 24 touches he had in Week 1 when Bush returns, he did enough to solidify his status as a decent flex option and RB3 with upside in leagues that don’t utilize the flex spot.
Peyton Hillis, Browns
Hillis moved up to the top backup spot after second round pick Montario Hardesty’s season ending injury. However, the expectation was that he would spell Jerome Harrison and likely get the short yardage work. Instead, he split time with Harrison and finished with more touches (13 to 10). He finished with 41 yards and a touchdown on nine carries and four receptions for 24 yards.
Brandon Jackson, Packers
It’s tough to say that Jackson will excel as the lead running back in the Packers explosive offense but we’re about to find out as Ryan Grant is out for the year with an ankle injury. Jackson played reasonably well against the Eagles in Week 1, finishing with 63 yards on 18 carries and 12 receiving yards. The Packers added Falcons’ practice squader Dimitri Nance to the fold on Tuesday, although they will hope to get rookie James Starks back off the PUP list sometime after Week 6.
Moving Down
C.J. Spiller, Bills
Spiller couldn’t get anything going Sunday and finished with 14 total yards. The Bills offensive line couldn’t block the Dolphins front seven – a group that can hardly be considered one of the top run defending units in the league. Trent Edwards looked horrible and the Bills finished with 166 total yards of offense. Spiller is good but he can’t carry an entire offense this devoid of talent.
Justin Forsett, Seahawks
So much for Forsett winning the starting job. If Week 1 was any indication, it’s a full on running back by committee in Seattle with Forsett getting seven carries to eight for Julius Jones and six for Leon Washington. Provided that remains the status quo, none of the Seahawks running backs has any fantasy value. Move Forsett to your bench until the situation changes.
Donald Brown, Colts
No carries, one reception and apparently no fantasy value unless Joseph Addai gets hurt.
Kareem Huggins, Buccaneers
No carries, no receptions and apparently no fantasy value unless Cadillac Williams gets hurt.
WIDE RECEIVERS
Moving Up
Mark Clayton, Rams
Clayton was rookie quarterback Sam Bradford’s top target in week 1 against the Cardinals and appears to be the team’s number one wide receiver moving forward. While, Laurent Robinson was ignored because the Rams were avoiding Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, Clayton was targeted 16 times, catching ten passes for 119 yards. He also dropped a pass where he could have split the safeties and scored a touchdown.
Steve Breaston, Cardinals
While Larry Fitzgerald and Derek Anderson looked completely out of sync, Breaston looked like he had played with Anderson for years. Breaston caught all seven of the passes thrown his way, finishing with 132 yards. Much of it came against inexperienced cornerback Bradley Fletcher but Breaston looked dynamic and may end up duplicating Anquan Boldin’s production by the end of the season.
Legedu Naanee, Chargers
Nice game against the Chiefs in Week 1 with five receptions for 110 yards and a touchdown. He clearly outplayed Malcom Floyd so let the debate begin on exactly who is the Chargers top fantasy wide receiver…?
Devin Aromashodu, Bears
Aromashodu was listed as a backup entering the season but he emerged as Jay Cutler’s go-to-guy in Week 1. He was targeted 10 times, catching five passes for 71 yards and dropping a pass in the end zone. While Devin Hester and Johny Knox were tabbed as the Bears wide receivers most likely to breakout under new offensive coordinator Mike Martz’s offense, after Week 1, it looks like Aromasho is the player to own of the Bears receivers.
Eddie Royal, Broncos
With head coach Josh McDaniels stating that he likes to spread the receiving workload around, the Broncos may rely on a different receiver in any given week. However, Royal started out the season on fire, catching eight passes for 98 yards. Chalk him up as the Broncos top wide receiver to own… at least for now.
Moving Down
Larry Fitzgerald, Cardinals
Fitzgerald says he’s at 70% and he had absolutely no chemistry with starting quarterback Derek Anderson in Week 1 against the Rams. Despite being targeted 15 times, Fitzgerald caught three passes for 43 yards. He scored a touchdown but that came on a play where the Rams got no pressure on Anderson, allowing Fitzgerald to get completely open in the corner of the end zone.
Michael Crabtree, 49ers
I guess preseason does matter. Crabtree and quarterback Alex Smith weren’t on the same page with Crabtree causing one interception and seemingly not running the proper pattern on more than one occasion. Add it all up and the end result is two catches for 12 yards despite a healthy 8 targets. Not exactly a good start to the breakout season that most were predicting. He also drew the ire of head coach Mike Singletary after a lacklustre effort to make a tackle after an interception. Vernon Davis had a breakout campaign after getting lit up by Singletary…unfortunately that breakout occurred the following year.
Devin Hester and Johnny Knox, Bears
See Devin Aromashodu above. The lines – Hester, one reception on one target for 17 yards; Knox, three receptions seven targets for 52 yards.
TIGHT ENDS
Moving Up
Marcedes Lewis, Jaguars
Lewis has always had decent talent but his fantasy value heading into the season was low based on his lack of touchdowns (never more than two in any season) and the emergence of Zach Miller as a receiving threat. However, he scored touchdowns on both of his receptions in Week 1 against the Broncos. Has he used up his touchdown allotment for this year or is he on his way to a decent fantasy season? Might be worth a look if you’re in the market for a backup on your roster.
Moving Down
Owen Daniels, Texans
No shocker here since head coach Gary Kubiak said Daniels would be limited to 20-25 plays in Week 1 against the Colts. That number seemed about right and the Texans only passed it 17 times with running back Arian Foster dominating the Colts on the ground. While that trend won’t repeat itself every week, the Texans clearly are a much-improved team running the ball with Foster. Couple that with Daniels questionable health, and you’ve got a risky fantasy starter for the early part of 2010.
By: Dave Stringer — September 8, 2010 @ 6:12 am
With many leagues drafting in early or mid-August and plenty of player movement since then, many fantasy football leagues allow waiver wire pickups prior to week one of the regular season.
Since mid-August, the major NFL headlines have focused on Brett Favre’s announcement that he will play in 2010 (surprise, surprise), the ascension of Arian Foster to starting running back of the Texans, the shocking release of T.J. Houshmandzadeh, the Bucs decision to give up on Derrick Ward and a trade sprinkled in for good measure (Mark
Clayton to the Rams).
Add it all up and there are plenty of intriguing options on the waiver wire in most leagues prior to week one.
– With Ward getting chopped, Huggins shot up fantasy football draft boards on the assumption he would take over as the team’s top backup behind Cadillac Williams. Huggins is a small, shifty player with excellent speed but he may be best suited to third down duties.
It is debatable whether the Bucs would turn to Huggins or Earnest Graham in the event of a Williams’ injury. If Huggins won the nod over Graham, he would be a tempting option but the recent signing of LeGarrette Blount tempers my enthusiasm a wee bit. Cadillac does have an extensive injury history, although he did play 16 games in 2009.
Fantasy Outlook: Handcuff to Williams and worth owning in all leagues except small roster, redraft formats.
– The rookie fourth round pick has won a spot in the starting line-up with an impressive preseason and only tight end Kellen Winslow figures to get more targets early in the season. Williams has good size and speed and has already established himself as the Bucs top wide receiver.
The Bucs passing game was a mess in 2009 but quarterback Josh Freeman figures to be much improved in 2010. The Bucs are likely to be playing from behind often so Williams will be targeted plenty this year, provided he can hold off second round pick Arrelious Benn.
Fantasy Outlook: I’m sold, especially in dynasty leagues. Grab Williams in all formats but don’t draft him as a fantasy starter.
– Just traded to the Rams, Clayton goes from being a complete non-factor in Baltimore to a potential number one wide receiver in St. Louis. He possesses excellent speed but has been inconsistent, which can be partially attributed to his use almost exclusively as a deep threat.
Incumbent top wide receiver Laurent Robinson has missed plenty of time with injuries during his three years in the league and DannyAmendola is best suited to playing out of the slot.
Fantasy Outlook: Starting on the outside by week two or three with the potential to be Sam Bradford’s top target shortly thereafter. The Rams offense is ugly but they figure to be behind early and often so Clayton should see plenty of targets in 2010. Grab him in larger leagues as a WR5.
– Jones is a speedy player who has struggled at times with consistency and drops. However, with 12 receptions for 131 yards and a touchdown in the first three preseason games, Jones has outplayed Kevin Walter and likely earned a spot in the starting lineup.
With the Texans expected to boast one of the league’s most explosive passing attacks in 2010, Jones is an attractive option and should be considered a potential breakout player.
Fantasy Outlook: Jones is worth owning in all formats. His stock will rise after Week One so grab him now if you can.
– That’s right – your eyes aren’t deceiving you. There are two Mike Williamses on the list and yes, the second one is the former Detroit Lions first-round bust.
Now that you’ve picked yourself up off the ground, consider this. The Seahawks cast of wide receivers features a rookie caught stealing donuts (Golden Tate), a 2009 third-round pick who did nothing as a rookie (Deon Butler), a fifth-year player with 16 career receptions (Ben Obamanu) and a veteran on his last legs who has averaged 41 receptions per year over the last three years (Deion Branch). Plus, the Seahawks chopped T.J. Houshmandzadeh to create a spot in the starting lineup for Williams.
Williams was the Seahawks best receiver in the preseason and the Seahawks don’t figure to be very good so expect the pass-run ratio to be weighted in Williams’ favor.
Fantasy Outlook: Hey, I’m not sold on him and you shouldn’t be either. However, at the moment, he ranks as the Seahawks top wide receiver so he figures to get plenty of opportunities unless he proves unable to take advantage of them. Grab him in larger leagues.
– Rookie running back Montario Hardesty will miss the entire 2010 season with a torn ACL and the Browns dropped 2009 backup Chris Jennings. Hillis will compete with 2009 sixth-round round pick James Davis for carries behind Jerome Harrison.
Hillis received extensive playing time for the Broncos in 2008, gaining 480 total yards and six touchdowns in five games. With the selection of Hardesty in the second round and the trade for Hillis, the Browns clearly are not sold on Harrison.
Fantasy Outlook: Hillis will be dressed on game day due to his ability to play fullback, running back and contribute on special teams. Look for him to get short-yardage work and earn the backup spot over Davis.
Other Players to Consider
– Back in early August, it appeared Vincent Jackson would come to his senses and get a deal done with the Chargers or the team would acquire a solid veteran to play alongside Malcolm Floyd. Josh Reed (since released) and Patrick Crayton were the only additions so Naanee will start on opening day in one of the league’s high-powered offenses. Nice upside on your bench.
– Excellent preseason and, continuing the theme, the Rams will need to throw it plenty in 2010. Might be a decent fantasy backup during his rookie season.
– Bills cut 2008 second round pick James Hardy and Chad Jackson leaving Johnson fighting for targets with Roscoe Parrish and two undrafted rookie free agents. Plus, at tight end, Shawn Nelson is hurt and Derek Schoumann was released leaving recently signed David Martin the team’s best receiving option at the position. Johnson could be a surprise in 2010.
– Bengals management and quarterback Carson Palmer have raved about Shipley’s play in the preseason. He has locked up the slot receiver role and could be a decent option in large leagues that use the flex position.
– The Dolphins shipped Greg Camarillo to the Vikings leaving Hartline fighting for Brandon Marshall’s leftovers with Davone Bess and a pair of undrafted rookie free agents. Will go overlooked in most redraft leagues but he shouldn’t.
By: Dave Stringer — August 13, 2010 @ 8:29 am
As drafts and auctions are ramping up for leagues across North America, fantasy football fanatics are being inundated with information on how to pick their teams.
Some of it is useful, some of it is not. Some of it is boring, some of it is not.
This article has two of those four features. I leave it to you to decide which two they are.
1. Aaron Rodgers had 304 yards and five touchdowns rushing last year and the 60 fantasy points that provided is the reason why he was fantasy football’s top ranked quarterback.
2. There is no reason to suggest why he won’t accomplish both feats again in 2010.
 He's good. 3. Andre Johnson has topped 1,500 yards and eight touchdowns in each of the last two seasons.
4. I believe that the best predictor of future performance is past performance.
5. Larry Fitzgerald had the 15th most receiving yards in the league in 2009 but was the fourth-ranked fantasy wide receiver courtesy of his 13 touchdowns.
6. Kurt Warner retired and has been replaced by Matt Leinart.
7. Whereas Warner’s career completion percentage was 65.7% and his yards per attempt were 7.8, Leinart has compiled a completion rate of 57.1% to go along with an average yards per attempt of 5.6.
8. Reggie Wayne is 31 years old and only had 385 yards and two touchdowns during the last seven games of 2009.
9. Overall, I’m a lot more concerned about the top 15 fantasy wide receivers than I was last year.
10. The San Diego Chargers traded to move up in the first round of the NFL Draft in order to select Ryan Mathews and they have a very good offense.
11. I think Ryan Mathews will win the NFL’s Rookie Offensive Player of the Year award.
12. When the Buffalo Bills selected C.J. Spiller in the first round, Fred Jackson became the unqualified biggest fantasy loser from the NFL Draft.
13. I think C.J. Spiller will finish the year with 1,050 total yards and five touchdowns.
14. Amongst tight ends, Jason Witten had the second most receiving yards with 1,030 but finished tied with 17 other players for 25th most touchdowns with only two.
15. In seven seasons in the league, Witten has averaged fewer than four touchdowns per year.
16. The average size of the Cowboys top three wide receivers is just under 6’3” and 218 pounds.
17. Ronnie Brown has missed 20 games over five years and finished two of those years on injured reserve.
18. Ricky Williams is 33 years old and had his highest average yards per carry in 2009 to go along with the second most touchdowns of his career.
19. During the last 12 weeks of the 2009 season, Ray Rice had 42 redzone touches while Willis McGahee had 16.
20. McGahee had a surprising 146 fantasy points last year but 113 of them came in five games, including the first three games of the season. In one of my leagues, he was on the bench for all five of those games.
21. During the last four games of last season, Chris Wells had 14 red zone touches while Tim Hightower had six.
22. During his two years in the league, Tim Hightower has 96 receptions (63 last year) to go along with 18 touchdowns.
23. There are fantasy football leagues that award a point per reception.
24. Owen Daniels would have been the top ranked fantasy tight end in 2009 had an ACL injury not ended his season.
25. Of Jamaal Charles’ 189 fantasy points, 85 came in three games against the Bills, Browns and Broncos during weeks 14, 15 and 17.
26. The Chiefs signed Thomas Jones during the off-season.
27. Jerome Harrison did nothing for three years and 89 of his 150 fantasy points came in three games against the Chiefs, Raiders and Jaguars.
28. The Browns drafted Montario Hardesty in the second round and general manager Tom Heckert said he views Hardesty as a feature back.
29. I am always sceptical of running backs who get a large portion of their fantasy points either at the end of the season or in a few games against weak opposition.
30. I am a Rams fan and think that Steven Jackson is the third best running back in the league. Despite that, I can tell you that there are at least seven running backs I will take instead of him because they will have more touchdown opportunities in 2010.
31. Hakeem Nicks had 115 fantasy points on only 74 targets, ranking him fifth in that category (of players with at least 40 targets). That means he’s a big play waiting to happen and assures the Giants will use him more in 2010.
32. Average fantasy points per target is a statistic that you’re going to hear a lot about in the future, especially in articles focusing on dynasty/keeper leagues.
33. Jermichael Finley had 97 fantasy points in 13 games and averaged 11.5 fantasy points per game over the last five games of the 2009 season.
 34. Mike Wallace had an exceptional rookie year with 756 yards and six touchdowns.
35. Ben Roethlisberger had the third most fantasy points per game amongst quarterbacks last year.
36. The Steelers traded Santonio Holmes to the New York Jets.
37. The Steelers threw the ball 536 times in 2009 while the Jets threw it a league low 393 times. That’s a difference of 143 or 8.9 fewer attempts per game.
38. Visanthe Shiancoe has caught 18 touchdown passes over the last two years but has never topped 600 yards receiving.
39. With Ben Tate out with a hamstring injury, Arian Foster has been in as the first string Texans running back.
40. The Houston Texans will have an outstanding offense in 2010.
41. The Baltimore Ravens ran 128 plays in the red zone last year and 95 of them were runs and 33 were passes.
42. Of the 8,004 fantasy points the top-30 ranked fantasy quarterbacks combined to score, 31.1% of those points came on touchdown passes.
43. Joe Flacco didn’t get a lot of chances to throw touchdown passes last year and the Ravens aren’t about the abandon their run game in the red zone in 2010.
44. Most people think Greg Olsen is a talented tight end but no tight end in a Mike Martz offense has ever topped 380 yards.
45. Mike Martz is a stubborn man.
46. People tend to think of Devery Henderson as a solid deep threat but he has 16 touchdown receptions over the last five years (excluding his rookie season when he played one game).
47. Robert Meachem scored nine touchdowns in 2009, the first year he received extended playing time.
48. The Seahawks have tried desperately this offseason to replace Julius Jones as the team’s lead running back including trading for an out-of-shape LenDale White and an injured Leon Washington.
49. If I don’t think a team likes a player, then I don’t like relying on those players for my fantasy teams, especially in dynasty leagues.
50. At times, I have had to go against my own advice but I will not rely on Jones in 2010 (repeat ten times).
51. Justin Forsett had four games with 10 or more carries and accumulated 397 rushing yards in those games while averaging 6.3 yards per carry.
52. I like Forsett based on his current ADP of 6.01.
53. Coaches tend to talk up their players when there is a roster deficiency in order to drive down the trade value of players they are interested in. The Seahawks Pete Carroll sure has been talking up Forsett this summer and the Bills sure would like to trade Marshawn Lynch (despite what they’re saying).
54. The teams in the NFC North have to face the teams in the NFC East and the AFC East, which makes the Bears, Lions, Packers and the Vikings losers from a scheduling perspective.
55. The teams in the AFC West get to face the teams in the NFC West and the AFC South, which makes the Broncos, Chiefs, Raiders and Chargers winners from a scheduling perspective.
56. Most of Eddie Royal’s 2009 targets came on short passes yet he caught only 46.8% of his targets whereas Brandon Marshall had more deep targets and caught 65.6% of his targets.
57. Brandon Marshall was traded to the Miami Dolphins.
58. There is a reason why the Denver Broncos drafted Demaryius Thomas in the first round and Eric Decker in the third round.
59. Now you know what that reason was.
60. During his three years as the Texans starter, Matt Schaub has started 11 games twice and 16 games once.
61. I believe in the law of averages (so should you).
62. As a rookie, Mohamad Massaquoi led the Browns with 624 receiving yards and three touchdowns.
63. Massaquoi caught 35.8% of his targets ranking him 94th amongst wide receivers with at least 40 targets.
64. I don’t think that was entirely because of the quarterback play in Cleveland last year.
65. Roy Williams caught 44% of his targets in 2009.
66. The Dallas Cowboys drafted Dez Bryant in the first round of the NFL Draft.
67. Pierre Garcon caught 51% of his targets last year. Austin Collie caught 67% of his targets and Anthony Gonzalez caught 72% of his targets during his first two years in the league.
68. Peyton Manning connected on 72.2% of his targets to players not named Pierre Garcon.
69. Quarterbacks like to throw to receivers who catch the ball, especially really good ones like Peyton Manning and Tony Romo.
70. Tony Gonzalez and Greg Olsen tied for the most red zone touches amongst tight ends with Brent Celek finishing third.
71. The Falcons, Bears and Eagles failed to acquire a big wide receiver during the offseason (or more accurately, none who are expected to contribute in 2010).
72. Reggie Bush’s touches have declined three straight years, hitting 117 last year.
73. In any situation, success is a function of opportunity, ability and motivation.
74. Fantasy success cannot be achieved with minimal opportunity and is rarely achieved by players with declining opportunities.
75. At the end of all of my job interviews, I finish by stating that success requires three components – ability, motivation and opportunity, if you can provide the opportunity then I will provide the ability and motivation. This applies to fantasy football as well.
76. Brandon Pettigrew had 5 receptions for 165 yards and two touchdowns in the three games before he suffered a season-ending knee injury.
77. The Lions traded for Tony Scheffler during the offseason.
78. Panthers quarterback Matt Moore and wide receiver Steve Smith connected 20 times for 378 yards and three touchdowns in the four games they started together.
79. I don’t think Jimmy Clausen is going to unseat Moore in 2010.
 What 80. LaDainian Tomlinson’s current ADP is 9.10.
81. Tomlinson backs up Shonn Greene, who had 541 rushing yards as a rookie.
82. The Jets ran the ball far more than any team in the NFL last year.
83. I like veteran running backs backing up largely unproven players playing in offenses that run heavily.
84. There are plenty of backup running backs being drafted before LaDainian Tomlinson.
85. I don’t know why that is.
86. Michael Bush of the Raiders has received 15 or more touches in six games over the course of his career.
87. He has averaged 122 total yards in those six games.
88. Darren McFadden of the Raiders has received 15 or more touches in five games over the course of his career.
89. He has averaged 93 total yards in those five games.
90. The current average draft positions for Frank Gore, Michael Crabtree and Vernon Davis are 1.06, 4.06 and 5.03 yet Alex Smith’s ADP is 12.03.
91. Alex Smith averaged 17.7 fantasy points per game during the eleven games he received extensive playing time last year.
92. I don’t know why Alex Smith isn’t being viewed as a sleeper at quarterback.
93. Ryan Grant is the undisputed lead running back for the Green Bay Packers.
94. The Packers had an explosive offense in 2009 and figure to have one again this year.
95. Ryan Grant’s is currently being taken 13th overall amongst running backs.
96. Marcedes Lewis has increased his yardage total every year but has never scored more than two touchdowns.
97. You have not read anything yet about kickers.
98. You have not read anything yet about defenses.
99. That’s because there’s no point wasting your time guessing how kickers and defenses will perform. Use the last two selections in your draft or your last two auction dollars to fill these positions.
100. If you liked this article, then you should check back regularly for fantasy tips and advice to help you win your league.
By: Dave Stringer — July 19, 2010 @ 12:51 am
With the proliferation of NFL teams utilizing time-shares and running backs-by-committee, there are now fewer teams than ever before employing a single workhorse running back.
In fact, there are now only 13 teams likely to employ a single player for a healthy majority of their team’s plays on first and second down. Of those 13, only Baltimore’s Ray Rice is unlikely to take the goal line responsibilities.
With committees being the norm, finding a productive workhorse running back is a key factor in achieving success in your fantasy football league, especially in non-PPR leagues and in leagues that don’t utilize a flex position player.
Let’s analyze the backfields and rank the workhorses and the committees.
The Workhorses I Like
– Javon Ringer and undrafted rookie free agents Stafon Johnson and LaGarrette Blount are no threat to fantasy football’s top 2009 performer.
– Rookie second round pick Toby Gerhart has some ability, but he is a similar player to Peterson, which makes him no threat to earn significant playing time.
– The Jaguars like second-year player Rashad Jennings, but MJD proved in 2009 that he is well suited to carry a big load despite his 5’7” height.
– While the Ravens have three quality running backs in Rice, Willis McGahee, and Le’Ron McClain, Rice is clearly the top dog. If only he were to get more of the goal-line work.
The Steelers will run plenty in 2010.
– With Ben Roethlisberger facing a four to six game suspension and Santonio Holmes now in New York, the Steelers will run plenty in 2010—and there isn’t much talent on the roster behind Mendenhall. Mewelde Moore is a decent receiver, but Frank Summers and 2010 sixth-round pick Jonathan Dwyer are no threat to Mendenhall.
– You can debate Mathews’ presence on this list, but the fact is the Chargers don’t view Darren Sproles as a lead back, which is the reason they traded up to get Mathews.
– The good news is that the Rams have the worst collection of backup running backs in the league. The bad news is that the Rams offense is putrid.
– Glen Coffee looked like a future stud in the preseason, but he completely disappeared once the season started. Gore is the lead back in a San Francisco offense loaded with young studs, which means he could have a monster year in 2010.
– While Jason Snelling and Jerious Norwood each bring different attributes to the Falcons rushing attack, Turner is a true workhorse back capable of close to 400 touches a year.
– While Grant has proven to be a solid performer for the Packers, it is somewhat surprising that the team has never brought in much competition for him. He is a solid player but is no threat to be considered among the upper echelon of the league’s top running backs.
– Benson had a huge year in 2009, but his past deficiencies are certainly cause for concern. His situation helps matters, however, since Bernard Scott is unlikely to take carries away from Benson and is not an accomplished receiver.
The Workhorses I’m Afraid Of
– While Williams was clearly the lead dog in Tampa last year, he managed a pedestrian 1,035 total yards to go along with seven touchdowns. Although improved play at quarterback from Josh Freeman is likely, the team’s group of receivers is raw, so there are no guarantees the offense will be much better in 2010.
– The Redskins situation is unique in that none of the three players fighting for the starting job have the ability to assume a third-down, pass-catching role. Portis will likely beat out Larry Johnson and Willie Parker to earn the starting job, but LJ and Parker are hardly excellent third-down options.
The Committees I Like
While it’s easy to rank the workhorses because there is only a single player to look at, the task is a little more difficult for the committees. Backfields that feature stronger rushing attacks with clearly defined roles are ranked ahead of those that are weak and have uncertainty regarding roles.
– The Panthers have proven over the last two years that it is possible to have two quality fantasy running backs in one backfield.
– Greene’s play as a rookie down the stretch of the 2009 season was good enough to allow the team’s management to release Thomas Jones . LT comes on board to provide a steady presence, and both players benefit from outstanding blocking up front.
– There are plenty enough carries to go around in Miami that Brown and Williams should both be useful fantasy options this year. With Brandon Marshall on board, the team’s running backs should get more goal-line opportunities in 2010.
– Heading into the offseason, Charles looked like a potential top 10 running back in 2010. However, the Chiefs signed Jones, and all indications are that he will get plenty of carries as a change-of-pace and goal-line option.
– This might be the ultimate backfield in PPR leagues. Wells gets the rushing yards and likely the goal-line work, whereas Hightower is an excellent pass catcher who should get 50 receptions in a backup role.
– While the Colts offense is consistently among the league’s best, the same can’t be said for their rushing attack. Brown was a disappointment as a rookie and Addai is hurt too much, as well as underutilized.
– The Cowboys featured a strong rushing attack in 2009, but there are concerns the loss of Flozell Adams will impact that negatively. It also doesn’t help that neither Barber nor Jones can stay healthy.
– Ditto for the Giants—minus the Flozell Adams factor, of course.
– Thomas is more of a rushing threat while Bush is more of a receiving threat. Lynell Hamilton could steal some goal-line carries, but if Thomas assumes that role, he is a breakout candidate for 2010.
– Moreno showed glimpses of his talent last year but not enough to satisfy Broncos fans or his fantasy football owners. With uncertainty at quarterback and a collection of aging and young, unproven wide receivers, the Broncos offense could struggle in 2010.
– McCoy played reasonably well as a rookie, but he may not have the speed or ability to make tacklers miss to become a top-tier running back. Look for Bell to get the goal-line and short-yardage work.
– Taylor’s signing by the Bears was certainly curious given that he is a carbon copy of Forte, only older. Both players are slightly above-average runners who are also solid receivers. Forte will likely win the starting job, and his value increases if he gets the goal line work.
– Smith failed to provide enough big plays over his first two years in Detroit, and, with his coming off a torn ACL, the team traded up to get the electrifying Best at the end of the first round of the draft. The Lions have gained some young talent on offense, solidified the second receiver position with the signing of Nate Burleson, and—dare I say it—may be decent offensively in 2010.
The Committees to Stay Away From
– The Texans backfield was looking like a fantasy mess before Tate missed organized team activities with hamstring issues. Here’s the situation: a rookie quickly finding his way to the dog house, a player who excelled as a rookie but had the dreaded sophomore jinx and is coming off a neck injury, and an unheralded player who played reasonably well as a rookie. Might be a good idea to move on from this mess.
– McFadden was supposed to be the big stud, but he has been mostly a bust for two years while Bush has consistently performed better—though he is used in a maddeningly inconsistent manner. Sounds like Raiderland to me.
– I expect Lynch will open the season elsewhere, but even if that transpires, the Bills offense is unlikely to perform well in 2010 given its numerous holes. With Spiller and Jackson likely to split the job, neither player’s fantasy prospects are good for 2010.
– First off, I was never sold on Harrison entering the season as the undisputed starter. It says here that the job is Hardesty’s either on opening day or early in the season if he remains healthy, with Harrison assuming the pass-catching role. But we’re talking about the Browns offense with Jake Delhomme at quarterback, so whoever wins the job won’t be useful anyways.
– One is too small, one is coming off a devastating leg injury, and the other has been a non-factor for two consecutive years. And they all play in an offense that may feature by midseason (if not earlier) a quarterback in his first year as a starter. Oh, did I mention the offensive line has some major question marks?
– If you can gaze into your crystal ball each week and figure out who is going to get the running back work, then you are better at this than I am. Of course, you’re probably using that ability to win the lottery rather than for fantasy football purposes.
« Newer Posts — Older Posts »
| |
|
Powered by
WordPress |
|
|
