Redskins
@ Vikings - (Anderson)
Passing Game Thoughts: The Redskins
passing attack, and specifically quarterback Robert Griffin III,
has been up and down this season, but things seem to be now trending
upward, and with so much talent on offense, this team could be
a big source of fantasy points in the season’s second half.
RG3 has had some rough games this year and his TD:INT ratio (9:9)
is certainly not helping his fantasy owners, but he is running
more lately and his completion percentage (60.3) and yards per
attempt (7.2) are both still respectable. Helping RG3 is the continued
development of wide receiver Pierre Garcon (172 yards last week)
and the emergence of rookie tight end Jordan Reed (21 catches
the past three weeks combined). With these two dynamic players,
the Skins are building a nice set of young weapons for Griffin
to grow with and fantasy owners to invest in. While the Skins'
passing game is still in the development phase, with RG3 trying
to get back to last year’s form and Reed trying to avoid
the rookie wall, they still air it out enough to be huge fantasy
assets if the matchup is right.
This week the matchup is more than right, with the reeling Minnesota
Vikings hosting the Skins on a short week. The Vikings come into
this game giving up the fourth most passing yards per game, the
third highest completion percentage allowed, and the second most
passing touchdowns allowed. In addition, their sack rate has dramatically
decreased from last year and they have just 17 sacks thus far
(fifth least in the NFL). The Vikings are currently giving up
the third most fantasy points to opposing QBs, the eighth most
to wide WRs, and the third most to TEs. With even less time than
usual to prepare this week, this is setting up as a dream matchup
for the Skins' offensive weapons in what could be a shootout.
While RG3 has not been that surefire QB1 that he was last season,
this kind of game represents, at least for one week, a probable
return to that status. With some dynamic playmakers and facing
a defense that can’t pressure opposing quarterbacks or defend
in the secondary, I like Griffin as an easy top 10 QB this week.
Garcon finally broke out big last week after five straight weeks
of between 45 and 75 yards, and it looks like the chemistry between
him and RG3 is getting better each week. As a target monster (third
in the NFL), Garcon should start turning some of these catches
into touchdowns and could be in store for a big second half. Garcon
is a solid WR1 this week and a top 12 option at the position.
Jordan Reed has been a bit up and down in is rookie campaign but
is easily the second most talented receiver on this team and should
be a nice low-end TE1 this week against a vulnerable Vikings defense.
No other Redskins receiver is worth starting at this point, even
in the deepest leagues.
Running Game Thoughts: Despite fullback Darrel Young vulturing
three touchdowns and running back Roy Helu’s involvement
in the passing game, Alfred Morris remains a fantasy stud in all
but the toughest matchups. Morris gashed the Chargers last week
for 121 yards and a touchdown while averaging a very respectable
4.8 yards per carry. Morris has had three straight games now with
over 90 yards on the ground and only one game all year where he
finished with less than 70. Despite not being involved in the
passing game, Morris continues to get a heavy workload on the
ground and, as a focal point of an improving Redskins offense,
should continue to see 20 or more touches a game. The only circumstance
where Morris may struggle is if the team gets down big early,
which would probably mean an increase in usage of Roy Helu. Helu
is the primary back in the team’s “turbo” package,
where the team looks to pass more than usual in no-huddle situations.
This week Morris owners should not have to worry about that, as
the Vikings offense often struggles to score and is currently
averaging more than two points per game less than the Skins. Even
better, the Vikings run defense is well below average and has
given up several big games to opposing running backs this year,
including to a similarly built back in Eddie Lacy (94 yds, 1 TD).
With RG3 improving week to week and a couple of legitimate treats
downfield, the Vikings defense will not be able to load up the
box on Morris, meaning a bunch of long runs are possible. With
Morris breaking tackles at an elite rate, he may find himself
in the secondary more often than not, and with a good solid combo
of size and burst, he could be running over defensive backs all
the way to the end zone. Start Morris this week with confidence
as a RB1 and an easy top 10 option at the position. Roy Helu remains
a high-end handcuff but is not getting enough touches to be start-worthy
in any but the very deepest PPR leagues.
Projections:
Robert Griffin III: 290 pass yds, 2 TDs, 1 INT, 30 rush yds
Alfred Morris: 115 rush yds, 2 TDs
Pierre Garcon: 105 rec yds, 1 TD
Jordan Reed: 70 rec yds, 1 TD
Roy Helu: 15 rush yds, 25 rec yds
Passing Game Thoughts: It has been
a rollercoaster ride with the men under center for the Vikings
this season, with three different starters in eight games. But
it looks like, at least for now, Christian Ponder will give it
another go this week. For a team that is built around running
the ball with Adrian Peterson, the Vikings still throw the ball
nearly 60 percent of the time. Of course, a lot of this is because
they are often trailing in games. For fantasy owners this just
means more potential for garbage-time yards. As bad as Ponder
has looked at times, he does have moments where you think “OK,
maybe this guy could be something.” Of course those moments
are few and far between. But with underrated athleticism, Ponder
at least has the potential to give his receivers some opportunities.
The biggest news this week concerning the Vikings passing game
is the loss of tight end Kyle Rudolph, who broke his foot last
week and will be out for several games. Rudolph was not having
a great season but was one of Ponder’s favorite targets,
and with backup tight end John Carlson being less talented, it
could mean more opportunities for wideout Greg Jennings—or
for Cordarrelle Patterson, who is still being vastly underutilized
on offense.
While this offense has some major limitations in the passing game,
the Redskins may provide them with a short-term cure this week.
Washington, to this point, is letting up the fifth most passing
yards per game and the fourth highest yards per pass attempt in
the NFL. In addition, they have been the second easiest defense
to score against for opposing fantasy QBs and the third easiest
for opposing WRs. With a shorter week for defenses to prepare
and some major holes in the Redskins secondary, Ponder and company
are very likely to get into a shootout and at the very least rack
up some respectable yards through the air. While it is tough to
recommend Ponder as a fantasy starter, this would be the week
if there ever was one. While he may not put up big touchdown numbers,
Ponder should easily throw for over 225 in this one and has been
getting consistent rushing yards to pad his stats as well. He
is a solid QB2 this week, especially with a handful of decent
QBs on bye or injured. As for his receivers, until Patterson gets
more involved or someone else steps up, Greg Jennings is really
the only guy here who should concern you. Jennings has been up
and down this season but is easily leading the team in targets
and therefore should get the best opportunity for some decent
stats this week. In a good matchup like this, Jennings should
be a high-end WR3. No other Vikings receiver is worth a start
at this point unless you are extremely desperate at TE (Carlson)
or want to gamble big on a lottery ticket (Simpson).
Running Game Thoughts: In my two seasons of doing Inside the Matchup
for the NFC North, perhaps no section is easier and more consistent
to write about than that of the Vikings running game. Adrian Peterson
is one of just a handful of players today that you can basically
count on like clockwork. Sure, he has a bad game from time to
time, but overall he is about as consistent as they come, which
is saying a lot considering the lack of quality talent around
him. For Peterson, a bad matchup is still a must-start and a good
matchup means he might just carry your fantasy team to victory
single-handedly.
This week against the Redskins is perhaps Peterson’s best
matchup so far, and may be his best all season. The Redskins must
travel to Minnesota on a short week and try to contain one of
the league's most punishing players who is coming off a 140-yard
rushing day and itching for a team victory after falling to 1-7
last week. The Redskins have been very generous to opposing running
backs this year, allowing 10 rushing touchdowns (fourth most in
the NFL) and over 115 yards on the ground per game (10th most).
Of course this translates into being one of the top five friendliest
fantasy defenses to face for opposing RBs, and for a guy as talented
as Peterson, an absolute dream matchup at home. I could ramble
on and on about different stats here but let’s not beat
around the bush: you are going to start Peterson this week and
more than likely he is going to dominate the Skins. Peterson is
this week’s top fantasy RB start.
Projections:
Christian Ponder: 255 pass yds, 1 TD, 1 INT, 30 rush yds
Adrian Peterson: 130 rush yds, 2 TDs, 15 rec yds
Greg Jennings: 75 rec yds
Jerome Simpson: 45 rec yds
John Carlson: 40 rec yds
Prediction: Redskins 27, Vikings 24 ^ Top
Rams at Colts
- (Smith)
Passing Game Thoughts: With Sam
Bradford sidelined, the Rams’ passing game has fallen in
the hands of Kellen Clemens. While those hands are capable of
producing decent numbers on occasion, they are not close to being
fantasy-worthy. As a byproduct, the team’s receiving corps
also fails to live up to the standards of fantasy success, and
should largely be ignored even against an Indianapolis team that
has shown vulnerability against the pass in their last couple
of games.
The Colts have been a middle-of-the-road team in terms of pass
defense overall, but have slid recently. They rank 17th in the
league in pass defense, 10th in touchdown passes yielded, 16th
in interceptions, and 17th in sacks. Indy is 17th in FPts/G allowed
to QBs, but have been shredded for a combined 736 yards and six
touchdowns in their last two contests. They are giving up the
ninth-most FPts/G to WRs and are tied for fifth-most touchdowns
surrendered to players at that position, yet have held their own
against TEs, having allowed the seventh-fewest FPts/G to the position.
Running Game Thoughts: The St. Louis offense now resides basically
in the hands of one player, running back Zac Stacy. He’s
been the starter for five games now and produced at a high level,
with at least 75 rushing yards in four of those games. Stacy has
run for 125+ yards in each of his last two contests, and though
still a bit raw as a receiver, did have six catches last week.
He should be in the starting lineups of fantasy owners this week
against the Colts.
Indianapolis is 27th in the NFL in rush defense and 25th in YCP
allowed, but 10th in rushing scores surrendered. Their poor numbers
against the run don’t translate to the running back position,
however, as they are giving up the fifth-fewest FPts/G in the
league to RBs in large part because many of the rushing yards
they’ve allowed have been to quarterbacks and only the Steelers
are surrendering fewer receiving yards to running backs than the
Colts.
Projections:
Kellen Clemens: 220 pass yds, 1 TD, 2 INT
Chris Givens: 55 rec yds
Jared Cook: 45 rec yds
Tavon Austin: 35 rec yds, 1 TD
Austin Pettis: 30 rec yds
Lance Kendricks: 15 rec yds
Zac Stacy: 80 rush yds, 1 TD, 20 rec yds
Daryl Richardson: 20 rush yds, 10 rec yds
Passing Game Thoughts: Andrew Luck
was underwhelming at the beginning of the year for fantasy owners,
but he’s come on lately, and over his last five games has
thrown 10 touchdowns with only a pair of interceptions. Losing
Reggie Wayne was a blow, but T.Y. Hilton now becomes a prominent
fantasy wideout and proved as much with 121 yards and three touchdowns
last week against Houston. Hilton’s big game moved him into
the top-20 at wideout in FPts/G, and into a tie for 10th in touchdown
catches. Look for him to continue to produce this week against
St. Louis.
The Rams are tied for third-most sacks in the league, and are
ninth in pass defense, but teams don’t need to throw much
because of how well they run against St. Louis. And even though
the team has given up the 11th-fewest FPts/G to QBs, they are
tied for third-most touchdowns allowed to WRs and have surrendered
the 14th-most FPts/G to players at that position. With all the
success wideouts have had against the Rams, TEs haven’t
needed to get in the mix and they’ve held players at that
position to the third-fewest FPts/G in the league.
Running Game Thoughts: It looks more and more like the Colts overpaid
for Trent Richardson, who managed only 20 yards on eight carries
last week and is questionable this week with an ankle injury.
Richardson’s rushing yards have decreased in each of his
last four games and the explosiveness he was thought to possess
doesn’t seem to exist. If he was ever to have a big game,
this week would be the time, and I’d put Richardson into
our fantasy lineups based on matchup alone.
With one exception, St. Louis has been horrific against the run
this season. They managed to slow down Seattle, but otherwise
have been buried by opposing backs, ranking 28th in run defense,
21st in yards per carry allowed and 30th in rushing scores ceded.
Only two teams are giving up more FPts/G to RBs than the Rams,
no team has allowed more rushing yards to opposing backs, and
four different backs have run for at least 140 yards against them.
Projections:
Andrew Luck: 285 pass yds, 2 TD, 1 INT, 20 rush yds
T.Y. Hilton: 95 rec yds, 1 TD
Coby Fleener: 50 rec yds
Darrius Heyward-Bey: 45 rec yds, 1 TD
Griff Whalen: 30 rec yds
LaVon Brazill: 25 rec yds
Trent Richardson: 65 rush yds, 1 TD, 15 rec yds
Donald Brown: 35 rush yds, 15 rec yds
Prediction: Colts 27, Rams 20
Seahawks at Falcons
- (Smith)
Passing Game Thoughts: The Seahawks’
offensive line continues to struggle badly, which is putting a
dent into the team’s offense. Russell Wilson continues to
face immense pressure and though he’s still putting up solid
numbers, is only 12th among quarterbacks in FPts/G. It will help
when Percy Harvin returns, but that is unlikely to happen this
week and the team also lost Sidney Rice, further eroding their
receiving options. Golden Tate and Doug Baldwin are capable wideouts,
but far from fantasy stars as neither rank in the top-40 at their
position in FPts/G. I’d steer clear of all Seattle wideouts
and tight ends, even against the Falcons.
Atlanta is 19th in the NFL in pass defense, which isn’t
terrible, but they are clearly worse than that ranking would indicate.
Only two other teams have given up more touchdown passes than
the Falcons, who also rank 22nd in interceptions and 24th in sacks,
yards per attempt allowed and completion percentage allowed. Though
the Falcons held an opposing quarterback without multiple touchdown
passes for the first time last week (Cam Newton), they are still
yielding the 9th-most FPts/G to QBs, the 10th-most FPts/G to WRs,
and the 12th-most FPts/G to tight ends.
Running Game Thoughts: Marshawn Lynch bounced back from his unsightly
game two weeks ago versus the Rams to contribute 125 rushing yards
last week against Tampa. Only LeSean McCoy has more rushing yards
than Lynch this season, who is seventh in FPts/G at his position.
Lynch hasn’t scored in his last two games, but that only
means he’s due, and I think Atlanta will yield multiple
scores on the ground.
The Falcons have been up-and-down against the run this year, ranking
20th in rush defense, 10th in rushing scores yielded, and 26th
in YPC allowed. Though they are 17th in FPts/G allowed to RBs,
Atlanta has allowed the seventh-most rushing yards in the league
to running backs despite no player at the position having more
than 15 carries in a game against them.
Projections:
Russell Wilson: 215 pass yds, 1 TD, 45 rush yds
Golden Tate: 70 rec yds
Doug Baldwin: 55 rec yds
Jermaine Kearse: 40 rec yds
Zach Miller: 25 rec yds, 1 TD
Marshawn Lynch: 105 rush yds, 2 TD, 15 rec yds
Robert Turbin: 30 rush yds
Passing Game Thoughts: It has become
crystal clear the last couple of weeks how much Matt Ryan needs
his top receivers to be healthy for him to succeed. Julio Jones
is out and Roddy White has not been healthy all season, and it’s
Ryan – and his fantasy owners – who have paid the
price. Ryan has thrown two touchdowns and seven interceptions
in his last two games and though White may suit up this week,
I wouldn’t put him, Ryan or even Tony Gonzalez in my fantasy
lineup against the Seahawks.
With Seattle’s vaunted secondary, it should come as no surprise
that opponents have had limited success throwing the ball against
the Seahawks. They have the number-two pass defense in the league,
are fourth in touchdowns ceded, third in sacks, second in yards
per attempt allowed, and first in interceptions. No team is allowing
fewer FPts/G to QBs than Seattle, who has given up just three
passing scores with six interceptions in their last four games.
Just one team has given up fewer FPts/G to WRs than the Seahawks,
and only tight ends are having a modicum of success against them,
but the team still ranks in the top half of the league in FPts/G
allowed to TEs.
Running Game Thoughts: Steven Jackson fizzled in his Week 8 return
to the lineup, but gained some traction last week with 57 yards
on 13 carries and 19 yards on three receptions. He’s the
type of back who gets better with more carries and considering
the Falcons’ struggles throwing the ball recently, I’d
be surprised if Jackson doesn’t get his biggest workload
of the season this week against Seattle.
The Seahawks have been fairly average against the rush this season,
ranking 19th in run defense and 18th in YPC allowed, but sixth
in rushing scores surrendered. They have given up the ninth-fewest
FPts/G in the league to RBs, but have seen a crack develop in
their last two contests, as a pair of otherwise unaccomplished
runners – Zac Stacy of the Rams and Mike James of the Buccaneers
– each ran for more than 130 yards when facing Seattle.
Projections:
Matt Ryan: 230 pass yds, 2 TD, 2 INT
Harry Douglas: 70 rec yds, 1 TD
Tony Gonzalez: 45 rec yds
Drew Davis: 30 rec yds
Darius Johnson: 25 rec yds, 1 TD
Roddy White: 15 rec yds
Steven Jackson: 85 rush yds, 1 TD, 20 rec yds
Jacquizz Rodgers: 25 rush yds, 15 rec yds
Prediction: Seahawks 24, Falcons 21
Jaguars at Titans
- (Smith)
Passing Game Thoughts: The Jacksonville
nightmare continued with the recent suspension of Justin Blackmon,
leaving the Jags with approximately zero offense. I suppose this
could mean good things for fantasy owners who have Cecil Shorts
on their roster, but with Chad Henne at quarterback – the
same Chad Henne who is 42nd at quarterback in FPts/G – no
Jaguars receiver should be a regular in any fantasy lineup, especially
not against the Titans.
Tennessee has been surprisingly excellent defending the pass this
season, ranking seventh in the league in pass defense. No team
has given up fewer touchdown passes than they have despite the
fact they are not among the league leaders in sacks or interceptions.
The Titans have yielded just a single touchdown pass in their
last four games and are allowing the fourth-fewest FPts/G to QBs.
They are also giving up the fewest FPts/G to WRs while allowing
the second-fewest receiving yards and touchdown catches to players
at that position. The only weakness in their pass coverage has
come against TEs, as Tennessee has allowed the 10th-most receiving
yards to players at that position, as well as the eighth-most
touchdowns and eighth-most FPts/G.
Running Game Thoughts: Maurice Jones-Drew has shown some signs
of life after struggling horribly to start the season, but he’s
still not living up to his fantasy owners’ expectations.
MJD is 35th in FPts/G at his position, but he has run for at least
70 yards in three of his last four outings, and traditionally
has destroyed the Titans. I’m not sure how much stock we
can put into that, but I do like Jones-Drew as a flex play this
week based on his recent play and the fact that Tennessee has
been so pliable against the run.
While the Titans have excelled in pass defense this season, they
have left much to be desired against the rush. The team ranks
26th in rush defense, 22nd in YPC allowed, and 27th in touchdown
runs given up. Tennessee has allowed the sixth-most receiving
yards and fourth-most touchdowns in the league to opposing backs,
and hence is surrendering the eighth-most FPts/G to RBs.
Projections:
Chad Henne: 185 pass yds, 1 TD, 2 INT
Cecil Shorts: 55 rec yds
Mike Brown: 40 rec yds, 1 TD
Stephen Burton: 30 rec yds
Ace Sanders: 15 rec yds
Marcedes Lewis: 10 rec yds
Maurice Jones-Drew: 85 rush yds, 1 TD, 25 rec yds
Passing Game Thoughts: Jake Locker
returned a bit quicker than expected from his knee injury and
has had mixed results. He was very good against the 49ers, but
threw for only 185 yards with no touchdowns and a pair of interceptions
last week against St. Louis. Locker has a pair of solid wideouts
to throw to in Kendall Wright and Nate Washington, but neither
has more than two touchdown receptions and that lack of scoring
has put both outside the top-50 at their position in FPts/G. Nonetheless,
I wouldn’t hesitate to put either in my fantasy lineup as
a WR3 against Jacksonville.
The Jaguars are 12th in pass defense so far this season, which
means they’re pretty good at pass coverage, right? Wrong.
The team may not give up a ton of yards, but they’re 25th
in touchdown throws surrendered and completion percentage allowed,
26th in yards per attempt allowed, second-to-last in sacks and
last in interceptions. Only six teams are giving up more FPts/G
to QBs than Jacksonville, and only four are ceding more FPts/G
to TEs. They’re 16th in FPts/G given up to WRs, but don’t
let that fool you – they’ve allowed the fifth-most
touchdown receptions in the NFL to wideouts.
Running Game Thoughts: Chris Johnson’s fantasy owners have
struggled with his results most of the season, but he rebounded
last week with 150 rushing yards and two scores against the terrible
run defense of the Rams. Johnson’s owners should be pleased
that he once again faces a hideous rush defense and like most
starting running backs when facing the Jaguars, Johnson should
be a fantasy starter without a second thought.
Awful, putrid, abhorrent. Any and all of these adjectives describe
the Jacksonville rush defense this season, which is ranked last
in the league. Only three teams are giving up more YPC, no team
has allowed more rushing scores, and no team is yielding more
FPts/G to RBs than the Jaguars.
Projections:
Jake Locker: 280 pass yds, 2 TD, 30 rush yds
Kendall Wright: 80 rec yds, 1 TD
Nate Washington: 65 rec yds, 1 TD
Damian Williams: 40 rec yds
Delanie Walker: 30 rec yds
Justin Hunter: 15 rec yds
Kenny Britt: 10 rec yds
Chris Johnson: 115 rush yds, 1 TD, 15 rec yds
Shonn Greene: 35 rush yds, 1 TD, 15 rec yds
Prediction: Titans 31, Jaguars 17
Cowboys at Saints
- (Smith)
Passing Game Thoughts: Tony Romo
may not get much love from fans or media types, but fantasy owners
know better. The oft-criticized QB is fifth in the NFL in passing
yards, third in touchdowns, and seventh in FPts/G. He plays with
every-week fantasy starters at wideout and tight end – Dez
Bryant and Jason Witten, respectively – and their status
should not change based on matchup. True, the Saints have done
well against the pass this season, but Bryant is fifth in FPts/G
at wideout and despite Witten’s occasional unproductive
outings, he is too important to the Cowboys’ offense to
sit.
New Orleans continues to play solid pass defense after a horrid
2012 and they’re fifth in the league against the pass while
yielding the third-fewest touchdown throws. They also rank in
the top-10 in sacks and completion percentage allowed and just
a trio of teams are surrendering fewer FPts/G to QBs than the
Saints. They have given up the 11th-fewest FPts/G to WRs and no
wideout has gained at least 75 yards against them in their last
three games. New Orleans is also allowing the fourth-fewest FPts/G
to TEs and hasn’t allowed a touchdown to a tight end since
Week 4.
Running Game Thoughts: DeMarco Murray ran for 7.8 YPC last week
against Minnesota, thrilling his fantasy owners after his return
from injury. Less thrilling to his fantasy owners is that Murray
ran the ball only four times and despite catching six passes gained
only 19 receiving yards. He will undoubtedly get a larger workload
this week against the Saints, who have struggled to stop the run
this year.
The Saints’ marked improvement on defense may show up in
their pass defense, but they still have a ways to go to fix their
run defense. They are 25th in the league against the rush, 31st
in YPC allowed, and 18th in rushing scores yielded. New Orleans
is giving up the 14th-most FPts/G to RBs, and all three of the
backs that have at least 18 carries in a game against them have
gained 95 or more yards, including Chris Ivory of the Jets, who
picked up 139 yards with one score against them last week.
Projections:
Tony Romo: 335 pass yds, 3 TD, 2 INT
Dez Bryant: 105 rec yds, 2 TD
Jason Witten: 80 rec yds, 1 TD
Miles Austin: 45 rec yds
Terrance Williams: 40 rec yds
Cole Beasley: 25 rec yds
DeMarco Murray: 85 rush yds, 1 TD, 20 rec yds
Joseph Randle: 15 rush yds, 10 rec yds
Passing Game Thoughts: Drew Brees
trails only Peyton Manning in passing yards, touchdowns, and FPts/G
and he gets it done regardless of who is available to him. Last
week he threw for 382 yards without the services of Marques Colston
and Darren Sproles, but both should be available this week. Lance
Moore has also become more productive and the team still has all-world
tight end Jimmy Graham, whose 10 touchdown catches lead all players
and he should only add more this week against a poor Dallas secondary.
It is safe to say the Cowboys have underachieved on pass defense
this season, what with the team ranking 31st against the pass
and being one of only two squads in the league to surrender at
least 300 yards through the air. Though they’re third in
interceptions and 13th in sacks, just six teams have allowed more
touchdown throws than Dallas, four quarterbacks have thrown for
400+ yards against them, and no team is giving up more FPts/G
to QBs than they are. The Cowboys are yielding the 13th-most FPts/G
to WRs, but have allowed the third-most receiving yards to wideouts,
including the absurd 329 they gave up to Calvin Johnson two weeks
ago. It’s not just receivers who are shredding the ‘Boys
– they’ve also allowed more FPts/G to TEs than all
but four other teams and the third-most receiving yards to players
at that position.
Running Game Thoughts: Pierre Thomas is the team’s leading
rusher but he has yet to score on the ground, while Darren Sproles
is mostly a receiver and Mark Ingram is lousy. That pretty much
sums up the rushing attack of the Saints, with only Sproles being
someone fantasy owners should consider using this week against
the Cowboys.
Dallas is 16th in the NFL in rush defense, but have struggled
to keep opposing teams from scoring on the ground, and rank 22nd
in rushing touchdowns yielded and 27th in YPC allowed. They are
allowing the ninth-most FPts/G in the league to RBs and a lot
of that has to do with the fact that they cannot cover backs as
receivers. No team has surrendered more receiving yards to running
backs than the Cowboys and only one team has allowed more scoring
catches to backs.
Projections:
Drew Brees: 380 pass yds, 5 TD, 1 INT
Jimmy Graham: 110 rec yds, 2 TD
Lance Moore: 65 rec yds, 1 TD
Marques Colston: 50 rec yds
Kenny Stills: 45 rec yds, 1 TD
Robert Meachem: 25 rec yds
Pierre Thomas: 40 rush yds, 20 rec yds
Darren Sproles: 25 rush yds, 55 rec yds, 1 TD
Mark Ingram: 15 rush yds
Prediction: Saints 35, Cowboys 28
Dolphins at Buccaneers
- (Smith)
Passing Game Thoughts: I have to
believe the mess in Miami will carry over to some degree and with
the attrition on the offensive line, along with the injury to
Brandon Gibson, quarterback Ryan Tannehill is not somebody fantasy
owners should be relying on this week. He’s been mediocre
this season anyway and Mike Wallace and Brian Hartline have struggled,
putting up decent yard totals but with only three touchdowns between
them. Tampa does not have a good pass defense, but I’d stay
away from all Dolphins involved in the passing game this week.
Even with Darrelle Revis, the Buccaneers have been less than mediocre
against the pass this year. They rank 15th in pass defense, 23rd
in touchdown passes ceded, 25th in sacks, and 27th in completion
percentage allowed. Tampa is giving up the seventh-most FPts/G
to QBs and has surrendered multiple touchdown throws in five of
their last six games, including their last four. Due to Revis,
they’re 17th in FPts/G allowed to WRs, but have still given
up the 10th-most scoring catches to wideouts. The Bucs have been
decent against TEs, ranking 15th in FPts/G allowed to that position
while surrendering the 13th-most receiving yards.
Running Game Thoughts: Lamar Miller got more than 15 carries in
each of his last two games, the first time this season that has
happened and showed what he could do with his best performances
of the season, rushing for a combined total of 194 yards while
adding 47 receiving yards. With the Miami offensive line playing
without two starters, it may be more difficult for him to rack
up yards, but I think Miller could cross the 20-carry mark this
week, making him a viable fantasy option against the Bucs.
Tampa has been solid against the run this season, ranking 13th
in rush defense, 14th in YPC allowed, and sixth in rushing scores
yielded. They have given up just one rushing score to a running
back all year, and are allowing the 13th-fewest FPts/G in the
league to RBs. The reason the Bucs haven’t fared better
in fantasy numbers is because they have allowed the ninth-most
receiving yards in the NFL to backs, and have given up three times
the amount of receiving touchdowns to backs as rushing touchdowns.
Projections:
Ryan Tannehill: 205 pass yds, 1 TD, 2 INT, 35 rush yds
Brian Hartline: 60 rec yds
Mike Wallace: 55 rec yds
Charles Clay: 40 rec yds, 1 TD
Rishard Matthews: 15 rec yds
Lamar Miller: 85 rush yds, 1 TD, 25 rec yds
Daniel Thomas: 20 rush yds
Passing Game Thoughts: The Buccaneers
are a mess, yet they nearly pulled off a huge upset of the Seahawks
last week with Mike Glennon throwing a pair of touchdowns without
an interception, though for only 168 yards. He hasn’t played
to the level of a fantasy starter but does have one to throw to
in wideout Vincent Jackson, who is 17th in FPts/G at wideout.
I also like tight end Tim Wright this week, who is 12th in FPts/G
at his position, has scored in consecutive outings and has a fantastic
matchup.
The turmoil in Miami hasn’t necessarily crossed over to
their pass defense, where they rank 22nd, but are fourth in touchdown
throws surrendered, ninth in interceptions and 10th in sacks.
The Fins have allowed the ninth-fewest FPts/G to QBs and have
yielded just a single touchdown throw over their last four games.
They’ve also shut down WRs, having given up the fourth-fewest
FPts/G to players at that position and the one touchdown they’ve
allowed to a wideout this year is the fewest in the NFL. Miami’s
struggles in pass coverage have come against tight ends, as just
one team is giving up more FPts/G to players at that position.
Running Game Thoughts: Doug Martin is unlikely to play this week
so the running game will continue to belong to Mike James. He
had 158 rushing yards last week against Seattle and though he
did not score, he did throw a touchdown pass. James hasn’t
been great as Martin’s replacement, but I do think he’s
a solid flex play this week against Miami.
The Dolphins rush defense has been decidedly below average this
season, and even though they rank 13th in YPC allowed, they’re
also 21st against the run and 24th in rushing scores ceded. In
fact, Miami is allowing more FPts/G to RBs than any team in the
league except Jacksonville. The Dolphins have not only struggled
against backs as runners, but as receivers as well, with only
three teams having given up more receiving yards out of the backfield.
Projections:
Mike Glennon: 215 pass yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
Vincent Jackson: 90 rec yds
Tim Wright: 55 rec yds, 1 TD
Tiquan Underwood: 25 rec yds
Mike James: 90 rush yds, 1 TD, 20 rec yds
Brian Leonard: 30 rush yds, 15 rec yds
Prediction: Buccaneers 20, Dolphins 17
Raiders at Giants
- (Thorne)
Passing Game Thoughts: Even though
he was taken out of the Week 9 loss against Philadelphia, quarterback
Terrelle Pryor (knee) insists that the move was simply a precaution.
His fourth-quarter departure was preceded by a two-interception,
two-sack, zero-touchdown performance, unfortunately outweighing
the 382 total yards (288 passing, 94 rushing) he had gained up
to that point. In the seven games in which he’s appeared,
Pryor has averaged 203.9 yards passing and a 61.1 percent completion
rate, which would rank Oakland as the tenth worst team in the
league if he’d been available for all eight games this season.
The primary hindrance to the passing attack has been the offensive
line; after preseason injuries put pressure on an already underwhelming
group, it became evident that quarterback mobility would be at
a premium. Because the quarterback is largely unable to stay in
the pocket, that limits what the offense is able to do through
the air and often makes Pryor’s ability to scramble and
improvise the most impactful aspect of his contributions on the
field. Even with his ability to get away from pressure, the Raiders
have given up 32 sacks this season, tied for second worst in the
NFL, and they are one of only seven teams to have thrown more
interceptions than touchdowns.
The Week 10 matchup against the Giants may not lend any assistance
to the struggling Oakland offense. What started the season as
one of the weakest defense in the NFL, New York has slowly climbed
up the ranks and now sits comfortably in the middle of the pack
or better in most statistical categories. On top of that, they’ll
be coming off a bye week and should be as close to full strength
as they’ve been all season. They average 242 yards against
per game (top half) and give up only 6.3 yards per attempt (third
best). In the two games before the bye week, they gave up only
seven points in each contest while allowing no passing touchdowns
and forcing three interceptions. Five of their league-low ten
sacks have come in those two games. Their opponents (Minnesota
and Philadelphia) resemble the Raiders in that they are strong
running teams with mediocre or worse passing attacks due to inconsistent
offensive lines. Given New York's two-game winning streak and
their apparent defensive revival, Oakland may find it difficult
to move the ball effectively through the air. And if the O-line
doesn’t show any improvement, the Giants are likely to continue
to improve on their season sack totals as they have done in the
past two games.
Running Game Thoughts: In stark
contrast to the passing attack, the Raiders ground game is one
of the best in the league; their 147.8 yards per game and 5.0
yards per carry both rank in the top four. Individual performance
numbers tell a bit of a different story though. The leading rusher
on the team is Pryor, followed by the once-again injured Darren
McFadden (hamstring, left in the first quarter), and then by Rashad
Jennings, a bright spot in Week 9 who finished that contest with
102 yards rushing and a touchdown in addition to 74 yards receiving.
The early prognosis on McFadden isn’t positive because hamstring
injuries tend to take a little while to recover from, so Jennings
will be the likely starter if McFadden is forced to miss the game.
The same offensive line that makes passing difficult is what gives
Pryor such an advantage as a runner; since many of his rushing
attempts are improvised, it becomes more difficult for defenses
to plan for him and he is athletic enough to get away from most
anyone who may be designated as a spy against him.
Even though the Raiders are better running than they are throwing,
they’ll be up against a defense that is better at stopping
the run than the pass, matching up strength on strength nearly
across the board on both sides of the ball. In the stalemate situation
which may unfold Sunday, the advantage will almost certainly go
to Oakland because of their ability to improvise on the ground
and their familiarity with inconsistencies along the offensive
line. In their two-game resurgence, the Giants have held Adrian
Peterson to 28 yards and no touchdowns on 13 carries and similarly
limited LeSean McCoy to 48 yards and no touchdowns on 15 carries.
In both contests the defense has been up to the task of slowing
down some of the best rushers in the NFL, and the offense has
scored enough points to force their opponents to get away from
trying to run the ball. Unless unforeseen changes occur in Week
10, the Raiders can anticipate a similar fate, though Pryor’s
improvisational skills may end up being their saving grace in
terms of offensive production.
Projections:
Terrelle Pryor: 180 pass yds / 70 rush yds
Rashad Jennings: 60 rush yds, 1 TD / 40 rec yds
Denarius Moore: 50 rec yds
Passing
Game Thoughts: New York has discovered their secret to
success, the one statistic whose presence is common to all six
of their losses and whose absence has correlated in their two
victories: interceptions thrown by Eli Manning. During the Giants'
six-game losing streak Manning threw 15 interceptions, at least
one per game; in the two wins since then he’s thrown none.
Beyond that one statistic, the only other notable change is Manning’s
yards per attempt, where two of his four lowest numbers for the
season have been in the most recent contests and the two others
were blowout losses. It appears a bit of change in strategy has
taken place, putting more focus on the shorter passing game and
thus taking a bit of pressure off the offensive line. That has
resulted in only three sacks over the past two games, compared
to 16 in the six others. Shorter, quicker passes, fewer sacks,
and no interceptions should be the passing strategy for New York
going forward if their goal is to win games. Unfortunately for
fantasy players this doesn’t lend itself to big individual
performances, but getting more touches to the playmakers over
time will give them a chance to do what they do best. Wide receiver
Victor Cruz is still the top Giant to own, as he is the yardage
(677) and receptions (47) leader while being tied for the lead
in touchdowns with four. Also with a quartet of scores is Ruben
Randle, who is third in the other categories behind Hakeem Nicks.
Tight end Brandon Meyers has as many receptions as Randle but
not as many yards or touchdowns. Beyond those four, the other
contributions to the passing game are minimal.
Hosting the Raiders at MetLife Stadium should serve as a nice
warm-up game as the Giants come out of their bye week, but if
they come out slow or have much rust to knock off, they may put
themselves behind early on Sunday. What Oakland does best is get
to the quarterback, ranking better than average with 23 sacks.
Most other statistical categories rank them in the bottom ten,
and with respect to completion percentage against, they are the
worst in the NFL. The Giants new offensive strategy of quick passes
and shorter routes seems perfectly designed to combat the strength
of the Oakland defense, but if the offensive line isn’t
able to hold off the pass rush and the sacks, or quarterback pressures
start piling up, it will likely lead to turnovers and keep the
game much closer than it needs to be. Last week Philadelphia targeted
the rookie cornerback D.J. Hayden and saw good success when throwing
against him. Hayden will likely be the defender responsible for
covering Cruz, so if that trend carries over from last week, there
could be an abundance of end zone salsa dancing this weekend as
the star receiver helps New York to continue their newfound winning
ways.
Running Game Thoughts: In the good
news/bad news relationship that exists between fantasy football
and on the field action, the Giants ground game is at the very
center of that dichotomy. As a team they have an abundance of
running backs, which makes the clear favorite hard to determine.
Due to prior injuries in any given week, there has generally been
one primary back, but following the bye week there will now be
a handful of talented runners returning to full availability.
The ultimate downside, even once a top back has been established,
is that the offensive line has been close to atrocious in creating
running lanes all season long because of an unfortunate collection
of injuries. For 2013, New York ranks in the bottom three of yards
gained per game and yards per attempt, second worst in fumbles
lost, and in the bottom ten of touchdowns scored. There are seven
teams that more than double their weekly rushing output. The most
telling statistic may be their season's longest run, which is
a league-worst 18 yards. Not only are the Giants relatively unsuccessful
when it comes to grinding out yards on the ground, but they’re
all-but incapable of breaking a big play. For this weekend, running
back Peyton Hillis is expected to be ready to go, David Wilson
(neck) has not been cleared to play yet, and Andre Brown will
be eligible to return to action since going on Short Term Injured
Reserve earlier this season; the projection is he’ll be
slowly integrated back into the offense, likely causing a logjam
of running back talent in the next few weeks.
For all of the potential opportunities that the passing game
may feature this weekend, there are likely going to be far fewer
on the ground. Oakland has a top six rush defense, and that combined
with the ineffectiveness of the Giants ground game sets the stage
for a daunting matchup along the line of scrimmage if New York
is going to try to run the ball with any sort of regularity. The
areas where the Raiders seem to excel are where the Giants struggle,
and vice versa, so the primary coaching decision will come in
how long either team is going to try to do what they already don’t
do well and how quickly they’re going to try to load up
against the weaknesses of their opponent. As this chess match
plays out in real life, the most likely scenario involves New
York running just enough to prevent the Raiders from committing
all their defenders to coverage, taking advantage of situations
with six (or fewer) men in the box, and likely being unsuccessful
in rushing attempts when short-yardage situations present themselves.
The major problem is the offensive line, and not even a bye week
can facilitate the kind of consistency and execution that is needed
to have an effective run game.
Projections:
Eli Manning: 250 pass yds, 2 TDs
Peyton Hillis: 50 rush yds
Andre Brown: 25 rush yds
Victor Cruz: 110 rec yds, 1 TD
Hakeem Nicks: 60 rec yds, 1 TD
Rueben Randle: 60 rec yds
Prediction: Giants 27, Raiders 16
Eagles @ Packers
- (Anderson)
Passing Game Thoughts: “WOW!”
is most people’s reaction after seeing Nick Foles shred
the Raiders defense last week for 406 yards, seven touchdowns
and no interceptions. The historic day was great for the small
percentage of fantasy managers who started Foles, but perhaps
more importantly it clears up the Eagles' quarterback situation
and gives their offense some real hope going forward. This week
they face a tougher foe in the Packers, who rank just slightly
worse than average in most defensive pass categories but may be
getting a big boost with the probable return of linebacker Clay
Matthews, perhaps their best overall defensive player. Matthews
has been out several weeks and, while he may be limited this week
playing with a “club” wrap on his hand, he certainly
will be a welcome sign for a Packers defense that got shredded
by a backup quarterback last week (Josh McCown). While expecting
or hoping for anything close to last week’s performance
would be plain ridiculous, the Eagles certainly have the playmakers
and scheme to put up serious yardage against an average Packers
secondary.
After a hot start, DeSean Jackson cooled off for several weeks
before exploding last week, and as the Eagles' No. 1 wide receiver
he should get enough targets and catches to be considered a mid-range
WR1 this week, especially considering his 16.5 yards per catch,
which ranks him first among players that have caught 50 or more
balls. After Jackson, the talent level drops pretty significantly,
but those looking for a WR3 or bye-week fill-in could certainly
do worse than Riley Cooper, who had three touchdowns last week
and 13 catches combined over the past three weeks. It is becoming
more clear each week that the future in tight end lies in Zach
Ertz, who had his best game as a pro last week, catching five
balls for 42 yards and a touchdown. The only problem with starting
Ertz is that—much like the Bengals, who have Gresham and
Eifert—the Eagles still use Brent Celek in a lot of formations,
even if he does not catch that many balls. Until Ertz gets enough
snaps to keep him on the field most of the time, he is a lowly
TE2 option again. As for Foles, there will surely be a rush to
start him in many leagues after last week’s blow-up game,
and considering the matchup, I must agree that he is starter-worthy.
In a tough environment, however, against an overall better team,
Foles will not explode again this week but should put up enough
stats to make him a solid mid- to high-end QB2. No other Eagles
passing game player is on the radar, as the running backs take
away most of the remaining targets.
Running Game Thoughts: The Packers run defense is good, ranking
fifth best in the NFL in rush yards allowed per game. On the other
hand, they just let up a huge game to Matt Forte (125 yds, 1 TD,
5.2 ypc) who is similar to LeSean McCoy in terms of usage. Looking
back at the Packers' games this season (and in recent years),
a big part of why opposing running backs may not put up big numbers
may have to do more with the Packers offense than their defense.
In other words, the Packers normally score so many points on offense
that opposing teams are forced to scale down or even abandon the
run game entirely (the Packers have been run on the third least
this year). This obviously makes the final rushing stats look
good for the Packers defense, when in fact opposing teams were
forced to throw more than they may have wanted. Look, I’m
not saying the Packers are a cake-walk by any means, but if their
offense struggles to put up points, like it well might this week
with Wallace at quarterback, the Eagles may have a good chance
at running the ball 25 or more times and wearing out a Packers
defense that is not particularly deep. Either way, nobody who
owns McCoy is sitting him this week, so this may all be a moot
point, but I actually expect a bigger game on the ground than
many might by simply looking at the Packers run defense rank.
McCoy is an RB1 this week and a top five option at the position.
No other Eagles runner is on the radar this week as anything more
than a handcuff.
Projections:
Nick Foles: 290 pass yds, 2 TDs, 1 INT
DeSean Jackson: 90 rec yds, 1 TD
LeSean McCoy: 95 rush yds, 1 TD, 30 rec yds
Riley Cooper: 70 rec yds
Zach Ertz: 45 rec yds
Passing Game Thoughts: With tight
end Jermichael Finley out for the year, Randall Cobb out for most
of the rest, James Jones beat up, and now Aaron Rodgers out at
least a few weeks, this team just cannot catch a break in the
passing game side of their offense. Quarterback Seneca Wallace
is set to make the start this week, and while he still has a few
great weapons to throw to and a full week of practice as the starter,
it is obviously a monumental downgrade for this offense and their
fantasy appeal. On the plus side of things, the Packers do face
an Eagles defense that is giving up the most passing yards per
game at nearly 310. While the Eagles do have a porous secondary,
they are surprisingly not among the ten most scored upon teams
thus far and actually have picked off a fair amount of passes
(10, for 11th-best in the NFL). Still, the opportunity is certainly
there for even an average talented quarterback like Wallace to
move the ball down the field through the air and, thus, not totally
ruin the fantasy days of his receivers.
Speaking of those receivers, Jordy Nelson is still the man to
own here, as he leads the team in targets, receptions, yards and
touchdowns and is too big and fast to be shut down by any defensive
back on the Eagle’s roster. While his upside is limited
by Wallace’s presence, the Pack should still throw the ball
enough to make Nelson a low-end WR1 here. After Nelson the pecking
order is cloudy, as normally Jones would be the next man up, but
he's been hampered by injury and his time away has given Jarrett
Boykin a chance to play, which he has done well. While these two
receivers may cancel each other out, I would feel safe starting
either as a mid-range WR3 this week simply because of the easy
matchup they find themselves in. The only other Packers passing
game player on the fantasy radar is tight end Andrew Quarless,
who Wallace targeted seven times last week and will probably look
to again this week as a safety valve. The problem with Quarless
is he is not athletic and so his upside is limited to a Brandon
Pettigrew kind of performance. In a PPR league maybe he is a TE2
this week, but I’d look for better options in the majority
of leagues this week. As for Wallace, the matchup is so juicy
that I know people will start him, but the downside and risk is
great enough that I don't see him as a top 15 option this week
in most leagues.
Running Game Thoughts: With Aaron Rodgers out a few weeks, the
pressure to pick up the slack will certainly be on the Packers
run game, and primarily Eddie Lacy. Lacy has secured his place
as a workhorse back and a top fantasy option despite being a rookie
on a pass-first team and in a semi-crowded backfield. Lacy has
now put up five straight weeks of 80-plus yards on the ground,
averaging 25 total touches and well over 100 total yards in those
weeks. With just four touchdowns on the year, Lacy’s opportunities
in that area may rise as well, as the Packers may take a more
conservative approach at the goal line without their franchise
quarterback at the helm. While Rodgers’ talent in the passing
game made defenses back off the run, making Lacy nearly matchup-proof,
this will not be the case without him. So it is important to dive
deeper into this specific matchup to try and predict what Lacy
may do.
The Eagles run defense is not great but it is certainly better
than their pass defense, which is among the league’s worst.
Thus far the Eagles are 15th in both rush yards allowed per game
and fantasy points allowed to opposing RBs. The Eagles have also
allowed just one running back to eclipse the 100-yard mark this
season and none has scored more than one time against them thus
far. While the Eagles are much more susceptible to the pass, the
Packers will no doubt lean more heavily on the run, creating a
more favorable situation for the Eagles defense. While Lacy is
certainly a start-worthy player this week given the sheer volume
of work he should get, I would not expect huge numbers since the
Eagles will likely load the box to stop the run. If by chance
the Eagles offense blows up again like last week against an average
Packers defense, the Packers may be forced to play catch-up and
therefore Lacy may see less work, with running back James Starks
playing a more prominent role as a pass-catcher. In my eyes Lacy
is a solid RB2 this week who should be a safe start but with limited
expectations and upside. While Starks has played well lately in
a change-of-pace role, and could be more involved this week, he
is merely a risky low-end flex option because his usage is so
unpredictable.
Projections:
Seneca Wallace: 235 pass yds, 2 TDs, 3 INTs
James Jones: 50 rec yds
Eddie Lacy: 70 rush yds, 1 TD, 10 rec yds
James Starks: 30 rush yds, 25 rec yds
Jordy Nelson: 70 rec yds, 1 TD
Jarrett Boykin: 45 rec yds
Andrew Quarless: 40 rec yds
Prediction: Eagles 31, Packers 27
Lions @ Bears
- (Anderson)
Passing Game Thoughts: When these
two teams met the first time this season the Lions scored 40 points
yet quarterback Matthew Stafford “only” threw for
242 yards and one touchdown (and one interception). At that point
the Bears defense was healthier and the Lions were not as finely-tuned
as they are now in the passing game. The past three games Stafford
has thrown for eight touchdowns (3 INTs) and nearly 1,100 yards
while completing over 60 percent of his passes. Of course, it
helps to have the NFL’s best wide receiver in Calvin Johnson,
who by himself had more receiving yards last week (329) than many
teams. With a pass-first mentality (eighth highest pass/run ratio)
and some nice complimentary receivers (Bush, Bell, Durham) to
back up Megatron, the Lions and Matthew Stafford are a constant
source of fantasy points, especially in better matchups.
This week Detroit must travel to Chicago, who are coming off their
best defensive performance of the year against the pass. Of course
this is because they faced an Packers team who had to throw quarterback
Seneca Wallace in under center when Aaron Rodgers went down on
the first series of the game. If you take away this performance,
the Bears pass defense is not good at all, having allowed at least
225 yards passing in every game this year and two touchdowns to
every quarterback they have faced, except for two (in which case,
they still allowed one to each). While the Bears pick off a decent
amount of passes (11, ninth best in the NFL), they do not get
to the quarterback much (fourth worst) and let up a whopping 8.5
yards per pass attempt (last in league). In other words, they
are not scary, and for an offense that ranks ninth best in pass
yards per attempt, the Lions should have a field day throwing
down field against a suspect secondary. While the Bears do have
home field advantage, luring the Lions away from their friendly
dome, I still think the Week 4 matchup between these two should
be considered an absolute baseline for the Lions passing stats
in this game. Stafford is a must-start QB1 and a top five player
at the position this week. Johnson is obviously a WR1 and the
No. one overall WR play this week, coming off a career day. With
the extra attention that Johnson demands, I kind of like wide
receiver Kris Durham as a sleeper WR3 this week, especially with
some decent WRs on bye. To No other Lions passing game player
is worth a start, as Broyles is out for the year, Burleson is
still a week or two away, and Pettigrew’s ceiling is just
way too low. With the running backs getting a ton of work in the
passing game, there just are not enough balls to go around to
feed multiple guys on a consistent basis.
Running Game Thoughts: The Lions running game has not blown anyone
away this year, but for a team that relies almost exclusively
on the pass, the run game has been more effective than it has
in years and has done its part to keep defenses honest. While
both Detroit backs (Bush and Bell) are not pile-movers, they fit
this offense perfectly as quick and agile backs with great hands.
Regardless of the matchup, you have to watch these guys. A tough
defense may shut them down on the ground but still give up a lot
through the air.
This week the Lions backs have an excellent matchup, as the Bears
are giving up the fourth most rushing yards per game and have
already given up 10 rushing touchdowns. Consequently, the Bears
are giving up the fifth most fantasy points to opposing RBs thus
far and actually had their worst total yardage against Reggie
Bush in Week 4, where he totaled 173 total yards. While this will
be a road game for the Lions, there is little reason to believe
they will not be able to move the ball; with Calvin Johnson on
fire and demanding extra attention, the run game should benefit
even more. Reggie Bush is healthy and coming off a bye week so
should be fully rested and looking to continue his hot start to
the season. In this juicy matchup Bush is a solid RB1 and a top
option in both standard and PPR leagues. Joique Bell is risky
while Bush remains healthy but, in an easier than normal matchup
like this one, could be started as a flex option for owners with
bye-week or injury issues. Bell had 42 total yards last time these
teams met, and I would look at that as an absolute floor this
week.
Projections:
Matthew Stafford: 320 pass yds, 2 TDs, 1 INT
Calvin Johnson: 130 rec yds, 1 TD
Kris Durham: 75 rec yds
Reggie Bush: 85 rush yds, 1 TD, 40 rec yds
Joique Bell: 25 rush yds, 25 rec yds
Passing Game Thoughts: For a backup,
quarterback Josh McCown looked good against the Packers last week,
throwing for 272 yards and two touchdowns and no interceptions
while taking only one sack. This week Jay Cutler has practiced
and has a great chance to play and, while he may be limited, this
is a big division game, so he will not hold back much. The Lions
are not a great defense overall but are no pushover either. The
good news for the Bears passing attack is that the Lions run defense
is actually stronger than their pass defense, and as the Bears
have become a more pass-oriented team, this should accentuate
Chicago's strength on offense. While the Lions are middle of the
pack when it comes to giving up fantasy points to opposing QBs
(16th), they are generous to opposing WRs, ranking as the seventh
easiest to score points against. This is excellent news for the
Bears, as they sport one of the league’s best one-two punches
at wide receiver, with Brandon Marshall being an elite option
and Alshon Jeffery coming into his own in his second year.
While Cutler’s injury and possible limitations slightly
downgrades this offense overall, it is not enough, in a plus matchup,
to even consider sitting either of these receivers. Marshall and
Jeffery were first and second in targets last week, and I expect
this to repeat this week, as Cutler is smart enough to get the
ball into their hands as much as possible. Marshall is still an
easy pick as a WR1 and Jeffery should be a solid mid-range WR2.
Tight end Martellus Bennett has been quiet lately, but after the
top five or six options at the position, there are not many safer
players out there this year. Consider Bennett a low-end tight
1 again this week. As for Cutler, the fact that this game could
turn into a shootout certainly helps his chances of having a nice
fantasy day, and while I do not expect career numbers from him
(because he may be limited), he has four legit weapons to throw
too (including Forte), so I think he is starter-worthy and a solid
low-end QB1. No other Bears passing game member is on the fantasy
radar right now.
Running Game Thoughts: The Detroit run defense has been fairly
solid this year, giving up just 108 yards per game, good for 14th
in the NFL. Fantasy-wise they are just a little tougher than average
but still considered a neutral, not negative, matchup. The good
news for Forte owners is that the Lions worst game against a single
running back this year was when Forte put up 117 total yards and
a touchdown a few weeks back. With Cutler apparently playing in
this game, the passing game should do its part to take pressure
off the run game, and with two excellent wide receivers playing
at a high level, the Lions will be hard-pressed to put a safety
down in the box to help against the run.
While we cannot be certain of exactly how much Cutler’s
injury will affect him, it is not unrealistic to expect a heavier
dose of the run rather than Cutler dropping back 35 times and
increasing the chance for a re-aggravation of his groin injury.
Even if the Bears do need to pass as much than usual, Forte is
a great receiver out of the backfield and is averaging five catches
every game, enough to make a significant difference in his fantasy
day. Start Forte with confidence this week as a solid RB1 who
should rack up some nice yardage even if he does not get into
the end zone. Michael Bush is still just a handcuff here and is
off the fantasy radar again this week.
Projections:
Jay Cutler: 290 pass yds, 2 TDs, 1 INT
Matt Forte: 90 rush yds, 40 rec yds
Brandon Marshall: 85 rec yds, 1 TD
Alshon Jeffery: 80 rec yds,
Martellus Bennett: 40 rec yds, 1 TD
Prediction: Lions 30, Bears 27
Bills @ Steelers
- (Anderson)
Passing Game Thoughts: The Bills
offense has filled up the pages of the injury report this year
with injuries to multiple quarterbacks, two of their main running
backs, and at least three of their wide receivers, not to mention
the line being banged up and bruised. Considering their injury
situation, it’s actually pretty amazing that they have been
in and even won as many games as they have. This week the offense
is still not 100 percent but a few of the main pieces are close
to where they want to be. Rookie quarterback E.J. Manuel looks
like he will start this week after missing several games with
a knee injury. Manuel has had both brilliant and awful moments
early in his rookie campaign but is easily the most talented quarterback
on the Bills roster and should bring some much needed stability
to the offense if he is able to return to full health. Both C.J.
Spiller and Fred Jackson, running backs who play a big part in
the passing game, look to be the healthiest they have been possibly
all year. The receiving corps is still banged up, as both Robert
Woods and Marquise Goodwin are questionable to play, but Stevie
Johnson looks healthy and tight end Scott Chandler is good to
go as well.
The Steelers pass defense this season has been quite good, ranking
fourth in passing yards allowed per game. They have allowed just
nine passing touchdowns thus far (fourth best), and are currently
allowing the 6th least amount of fantasy points to opposing QBs.
On the bright side for the Bills, the Steelers do not get to the
quarterback a lot (13 sacks, third fewest in the NFL) and have
only picked off four passes, tied for second worst in the league.
The Steelers also may be without one of the their best defensive
backs, Ike Taylor, who suffered a concussion and is questionable
to play this week. For a game in Pittsburgh, with a rookie quarterback
who will most likely be shaking some rust off, with a less than
full receiving corps, this is not a great matchup. There is some
nice young talent on this team, and if they were all healthy and
clicking on offense there might be some value here, but right
now this is mostly a team to avoid from a fantasy standpoint.
I like Manuel long term, but in his first game back in a tough
environment, he is nothing more than a low-end QB2 and should
be avoided in most leagues. Johnson is not a true No. 1 wide receiver
and therefore is far from matchup-proof. While the lack of other
options this week should make him a target monster, the Steelers
defense is good enough to limit him to just an average game. Johnson
is no better than an average WR3 this week. The only other option
I would consider for the Bills this week is Chandler, who is already
getting decent targets and should continue that trend against
a Steelers defense that is stronger against wide receivers than
tight ends. Chandler is a mid-range TE2 this week.
Running Game Thoughts: With a rookie quarterback coming off an
injury and a banged-up receiving corps, the focus of the Bills'
offensive attack is almost certainly going to be on the ground.
This is great news actually, as C.J. Spiller is about as healthy
as he has been all year, and with Fred Jackson performing well,
the team has a great one–two punch that could easily carry
the rock 25-plus times this week. The even better news for the
Bills is that while the Steelers have been tough against the pass,
they have been weak against opponents’ running attacks.
At this point the Steelers are the seventh most generous defense
to opposing fantasy RBs. In addition, they are giving up the second
most rushing yards per game and have allowed 12 rushing touchdowns,
second most in the league. The Steelers are also coming off a
game where the Patriots crushed them on the ground, compiling
197 yards and a healthy 5.6 yards per carry. All in all, this
is shaping up as an awesome matchup for Spiller and Jackson owners,
as the game plan should be "run, run, run" and the defense
should keep them within striking distance all game long. Both
Jackson and Spiller can be safely started this week as RB2s, and
if you have both of them, it should still be safe to start both
unless you clearly have a better option. If you have both but
only want to start one, I’d actually go with Spiller, who
is the more dynamic player and should be closer to 100 percent
health than he has been all year. Look for an overall terrific
day from this backfield.
Projections:
EJ Manuel: 225 pass yds, 1 TD, 1 INT, 20 rush yds
C.J. Spiller: 95 rush yds, 1 TD, 25 rec yds
Fred Jackson: 80 rush yds, 20 rec yds
Steve Johnson: 70 rec yds
Scott Chandler: 70 rec yds
Marquise Goodwin: 40 rec yds
Passing Game Thoughts: Despite losing
last week, getting picked off twice and sacked five times, Ben
Roethlisberger and the Steelers passing offense is putting up
nice numbers, has some legit weapons, is probably going to get
better, and is now a legit source of weekly fantasy points. The
Steelers are passing on nearly 65 percent of their offensive plays
and with a solid quarterback, three nice receivers (Brown, Sanders,
Miller), and an emerging running game, I look for them to be one
of the better offenses for fantasy purposes in the season’s
second half. This week the Steelers should get back members of
their offense that could pay dividends right away. Right guard
David DeCastro returns and should immediately be the team’s
best offensive lineman, and wide receiver rookie Markus Wheaton
should also return. While Wheaton has not done much yet this year,
I look for him to get more involved as the season moves along.
Of course, the weekly matchup will dictate a lot of what the Steelers
can and will do, and this week’s is a fairly juicy one for
this passing attack.
The Bills pass defense is about average in terms of the yardage
they give up (18th in the NFL) but generous in the touchdowns
they allow (most in the NFL). The Bills give up the 10th most
fantasy points to opposing QBs and the second most to opposing
WRs. While these numbers would make this seem like a borderline
dream matchup, the Bills are also good at creating turnovers and
sacks (tied for third in both categories), so the Steelers' upside
is capped here. While the Steelers passing game is not elite,
they are fairly healthy and deep, and it seems as though the offensive
is clicking and gaining some positive momentum. Big Ben has been
up and down this season, but with a full array of weapons, the
likelihood of throwing it 30 or more times, and a decent matchup,
I like him as a lower-end QB1 this week who should have limited
upside but be fairly safe. As for his receivers, the Bills have
been generous this season and I think both Brown and Sanders are
start-worthy. Brown is a borderline WR1 and Sanders, who has really
stepped up the past two weeks, is a solid WR3 in a plus matchup.
Heath Miller slacked off for a couple of weeks before putting
up 43 yards last week, and while he is getting decent targets,
he is more of a safety valve than a primary target now. Miller
is a solid but unexciting TE2 this week. No other Pittsburgh receiver
is start-worthy, even Jerricho Cotchery, who scored three times
last week but is not getting consistent enough targets as the
fourth option in the Pittsburgh receiver tree.
Running Game Thoughts: Although the Steelers got rocked by the
Patriots last week, Le’Veon Bell managed to have a nice
fantasy day, with 74 yards on the ground and an additional 65
yards through four catches. Much like his rookie counterpart,
Eddie Lacy, Bell has managed to lock up the workhorse running
back duties for his team and is proving worthy of being an every-week
fantasy starter. For Bell and the Steelers run game there is both
good and bad this week against the Bills. The bad is that the
Steelers are still one of the most pass-heavy teams in the NFL,
running just 35 percent of the time, the fourth lowest percentage
in the league. Some of this is because the Steelers are often
behind in games, while some of it can be attributed to the games
Bell missed with injury where the Steelers basically gave up on
the run. Either way, the ground-and-pound Steelers of old are
a distant memory and I expect Big Ben to still chuck the rock
25 or more times a game, minimum.
The second piece of bad for the Steelers run game is that the
Bills are actually a decent run defense, allowing just two rushing
touchdowns on the year (tied for second best in the NFL) and a
respectable 3.9 yards per rush attempt (10th best). On the good-news
front, getting David DeCastro back from injury this week should
boost the Pittsburgh offensive line, as he has graded out extremely
well in run blocking. Also good news, the Bills offense is banged
up and not exactly high-scoring, meaning the Steelers should be
able to stick with the run at home and perhaps even run the clock
out if they can get an early lead. Because Bell is getting a ton
of work and the Steelers passing game should alleviate some pressure
from the run game, I like Bell as a solid high-end RB2 this week
in an average matchup with above-average circumstances.
Projections:
Ben Roethlisberger: 285 pass yds, 2 TDs 1 INT
Le’Veon Bell: 80 rush yds, 1 TD, 20 rec yds
Antonio Brown: 80 rec yds, 1 TD
Emmanuel Sanders: 75 rec yds
Jerricho Cotchery: 40 rec yds
Heath Miller: 45 rec yds
Prediction Steelers 24, Bills 23
Bengals @ Ravens
- (Anderson)
Passing Game Thoughts: Andy Dalton
and the Bengals passing attack were on absolute fire for three
straight weeks, accumulating 11 touchdowns, more than 1,000 yards,
and getting picked off just twice, before last week’s matchup
with the Dolphins. While the yards were there last week (338),
Dalton failed to throw a touchdown and got picked off three times.
The Dolphins should not have been that tough of a matchup, so
it is troubling that the offense took a step back, but with a
nice, deep level of talent around him, Dalton should be able to
bounce back. The Ravens pass defense is no longer elite but they
are still not a pushover either. They are currently 14th in the
league in passing yards allowed per game. They get to the quarterback
at a nice rate (seventh in the NFL in sacks) but give up a fairly
hefty passing yards per attempt (7.8, sixth most). Overall, the
Ravens have some nice pass rushers and a solid cover cornerback
in Lardarius Webb but have some holes in their secondary and lack
experience there, so there are yards to be had. As for starting
Dalton this week, I think he is a solid and safe high-end QB2.
Dalton is hard to judge because he was just average for much of
the first half of the season but amazing for that three-week stretch,
yet he has a history of falling apart in the second half of the
season.
With so many nice weapons around him, Dalton should rack up some
nice yards and probably turn a couple of those passes into touchdowns.
As for those weapons, the ball is spread around so much that it
is hard for any guy other than A.J. Green to be a consistent weapon
(Green is a wide 1 this week), but Marvin Jones has stepped up
to a point where he needs to be considered as a WR3/flex option
in decent matchups, and this one would fit the bill. With Green
probably drawing a lot of coverage from Webb, Jones should draw
a weaker cornerback and Dalton may look his way six or more times
for the fourth game in a row. Don’t expect huge numbers
from Jones, but he seems to be a safe and consistent option right
now. No other Bengals passing game player is starter worthy, with
the ball being spread around so much and Green and Jones getting
most of Dalton’s attention.
Running Game Thoughts: The good news for the Bengals run game
is that they are coming off one of their best overall efforts
of the season, rushing for 163 yards and two touchdowns at a healthy
4.7 yards per carry average. Giovani Bernard had another highlight-reel
run last week, and while he sustained a rib injury that took him
from the game, he is fully expected to play this week and should
not be hampered too much. The bad news for the Bengals is that
the Ravens run defense has been plain nasty this year, giving
up just one rushing touchdown (best in the NFL), and ranking eighth
in rush yards per game allowed, and sixth in rush yards allowed
per attempt. Looking at these numbers, it is obvious the Ravens
are tough against fantasy RBs, and in fact they are giving up
the fewest points per game to them. While elite running backs
like Adrian Peterson may not be effected much by such a tough
matchup, the Bengals have a rookie and a below-average veteran
in BenJarvus Green-Ellis. In other words, this probably will not
be pretty. This week I am absolutely sitting BJGE, as he is not
involved in the passing game much and has not been effective running
the ball in most games anyway. Bernard is a different case because
he does get a lot of passing game work (30 rec, 2 TDs) and is
therefore still a startable player. While Bernard has been a fairly
solid RB2 this year, I would downgrade him to more of a RB3/flex
this week who should accumulate enough stats to contribute but
certainly won't come close to being a top performer at the position.
Projections:
Andy Dalton: 285 pass yds, 2 TDs, 1 INT
Giovani Bernard: 40 rush yds, 30 rec yds
BenJarvus Green-Ellis: 30 rush yds
A.J. Green: 90 rec yds, 1 TD
Marvin Jones: 70 rec yds
Tyler Eifert: 40 rec yds
Passing Game Thoughts: Joe Flacco
has had to adjust to some injuries and new faces on offense, but
it is hard to justify just how bad he has been. Thus far he has
had exactly one really good fantasy game. Excluding that game
(against Green Bay), Flacco has more interceptions (9) than touchdowns
(8) and is averaging just over 250 yards per game. The Ravens
do not have the greatest receiving corps in the NFL, but Torrey
Smith is becoming a borderline legit No. 1 receiver, Marlon Brown
has far exceeded expectations as a big-bodied rookie, and Jacoby
Jones is fast enough to take the top off most defenses. Despite
these weapons, Flacco has underwhelmed and now ranks outside of
the top 20 quarterbacks in completion percentage, yards per pass
attempt average, and quarterback rating. For a guy that is being
paid like a top five quarterback, these are awful numbers. The
Ravens' blocking up front has been pretty awful as well, but there
is no reason that the coaches should not have adjusted the game
plan by now to help this offense out.
This week the Ravens face a defense that on paper is still among
the league’s best but is reeling after losing their best
cornerback (Hall) and lineman (Atkins) while also being thin at
linebacker. The Bengals should still be a quality defense, but
they are now quite a way from being elite as they were the first
eight weeks this year. Without Hall, Torrey Smith should have
little trouble getting open against the Bengals' lesser cornerbacks,
as Mike Wallace did last week for 82 yards, one of his best games
of the year. It will be interesting to see if the Ravens try to
run more than they have lately, as they have become a pass-heavy
team, and their record shows that it is not working. Until we
actually see Baltimore run it more, I am going to assume they
will remain pass-heavy, and with the injuries the Bengals have
on defense, that might actually turn out in the Ravens' favor
this week. Smith is a solid low-end WR1 this week, as he is due
for a breakout after three below-average weeks. As for the other
receives, they seem to be canceling each other out most weeks,
so it is tough to recommend any of them strongly. Brown gets a
little bump over Jones because of his being a better threat in
the red zone, but he is still no more than a low-end WR3. There
was news this week that tight end Dennis Pitta may return, but
until that actually happens, no Ravens tight end should be starting
on your team, as they are both way too inconsistent. Finally,
I do think Flacco will get on a hot streak at some point this
year, but things are just too much out of whack right now with
the offense to recommend him as anything more than a low-end QB2.
With some QBs on their bye weeks and injuries to others, Flacco
is certainly worthy of starting, and he does have some upside
against an ailing defense, but do not go overboard here. There
is still more to dislike than like right now.
Running Game Thoughts: When Joe Flacco is your leading rusher
in a game, something is majorly wrong. Despite Ray Rice saying
he felt better than he did all year, he managed just 17 yards
on the ground against the Browns last week (Flacco had 25). The
Ravens are now 3–5 and are passing 60 percent of the time
on offense and Rice is averaging less than 14 carries per game.
While Rice struggled early with injuries and the Ravens have faced
some tough opponents, the lack of usage of Rice is puzzling—and
for his fantasy owners, maddening. There are lots of people to
blame here: the offensive line is not blocking well, the play
calling has been awful, and Flacco is not exactly lighting the
world on fire in the pass game to take the pressure off Rice.
Regardless, you would think the coaching staff would feed Rice
the rock 20-plus times, like they did the last time they won a
game (four weeks ago, when Rice and 74 yards and two touchdown).
Rice must take some of the blame, as he has been banged up and
has some wear and tear on his body, but he is way too talented
to be this underutilized.
This week the Ravens face a Bengals defense that looked terrifying
just a few weeks ago but with the loss of cornerback Leon Hall
(their best defensive back) and lineman Geno Atkins (their best
overall defender), this defense looks a lot more average. Against
a below-average Dolphins running attack, the Bengals gave up 157
yards on the ground, most of those going to Lamar Miller (105),
who easily had his best game of the year thus far. The Bengals
should be scrambling on defense with the sudden loss of their
best defender, so on paper this represents a terrific opportunity
for Rice and the Ravens to have a bounce-back game. While the
matchup is decent and Rice remains a good receiver out of the
backfield, it is tough to feel strongly about him at this point.
He is a low-end RB2 this week with obvious upside, but a bit of
risk considering his lack of usage. Unless you have a clear-cut
better option, I’d still roll him out there... just limit
your expectations. Bernard Pierce remains a high-end handcuff
but is not getting nearly enough work to be considered a starter
in any league this week.
Projections:
Joe Flacco: 270 pass yds, 2 TDs, 1 INT
Ray Rice: 55 rush yds, 1 TD, 20 rec yds
Torrey Smith: 90 rec yds, 1 TD
Jacoby Jones: 55 rec yds
Marlon Brown: 55 rec yds
Prediction: Ravens 27, Bengals 23
Panthers @ 49ers
- (Caron)
Passing Game Thoughts: After a couple
rough starts to begin the season, Cam Newton has really caught
on in recent weeks. In his past four games, Newton has averaged
22 fantasy points per start, reminding us what made him one of
the top five fantasy QB’s to start the season. Newton has
only thrown two interceptions in his past four games, while throwing
seven touchdowns. He has also rushed for a touchdown in three
of those four games, bringing his season total to four scores
on the ground. That current pace would put him at eight rushing
touchdowns at the end of the year and although that’s a
far cry from the 14 he scored in his rookie year, his pace of
26 passing scores would be a career high. As he has been through
most of his NFL career, Steve Smith has been a very consistent
fantasy option in 2013. While he has scored three touchdowns at
the halfway mark—one fewer than he scored in all of 2012—Smith
has also failed to reach even seven fantasy points (standard scoring)
in five of his eight contests. Newton has been finding a wider
variety of targets this season than in years past, as well. While
Steve Smith is still clearly the team’s top receiver, other
players like Brandon LaFell and Greg Olsen have been respectable
contributors in some situations.
Olsen does have it tough this week, however, as he will be up
against a San Francisco 49ers defense that has surrendered the
fourth-fewest number of fantasy points per game to opposing tight
ends. The 49ers have held opposing teams’ tight ends to
7 or fewer fantasy points (standard scoring) in five of their
eight games this season. San Francisco’s overall numbers
against quarterbacks look solid as well, having allowed the seventh-fewest
amount of fantasy points per game to the position in 2013. A closer
look tells us that they have benefited from a fairly easy schedule
at quarterback that includes games against the likes of Matt Schaub,
Chad Henne and Carson Palmer; all of whom have struggled. One
thing to consider is that the 49ers have been particularly stout
at slowing down runs from opposing QB’s. Russell Wilson,
Andrew Luck and Jake Locker combined for just 76 rushing yards
between the three of them in their games against San Francisco.
Newton has been very hot as of late and although this is a tough
matchup on paper, he’s still very likely to be a fantasy
starter in most lineups.
Running Game Thoughts: We all expected that the return of Jonathan
Stewart to the Carolina offense would add to an already murky
backfield, but the fact that he led the team in yards per carry
on his nine attempts in Week 9 could make fantasy owners even
more frustrated as the season goes on. DeAngelo Williams has been
the team’s highest-scoring back through the first half of
the season, but with Stewart healthy and fresh, that could change
in the second half. Not only are Stewart and Williams going to
continue to compete for carries and almost assuredly cause headaches
for fantasy owners, but the goal line success of third string
running back Mike Tolbert has been just as much of a confusion.
Tolbert has scored four rushing touchdowns, two receiving touchdowns
and has hit 9 or more fantasy points in each of his past four
games. Tolbert may be the most “boom or bust” Carolina
back of them all given that he is likely only going to take about
20-percent of the touches, but his ability to get into the end
zone cannot be overlooked. The Panthers trust him at the goal
line and why not? He has been one of the most successful goal
line runners in the league for years now.
A matchup against the San Francisco 49ers sounds a bit scary
when you say it, but a look at the stat sheet would tell us that
this matchup is more bark than it is bite. San Francisco has allowed
11-or-more fantasy points to opposing teams’ running backs
in seven of their eight games this season. The only team that
failed to reach that number was the St. Louis Rams, who had struggled
to run the ball against any opponent until they made the switch
to Zac Stacy. They have also allowed an average of one touchdown
per game to the position. Carolina has been hot as of late and
although it can be risky to play any of the backs in this “three-headed
monster,” fantasy owners shouldn’t be scared away
by the 49ers name. Williams will likely continue to see roughly
50 percent of the team’s carries with Stewart around 30
percent and Tolbert at 20 percent. Where those carries take place
on the field will greatly affect their fantasy values, however,
so don’t be surprised of Tolbert walks out of games as the
team’s highest scoring back; including this week in San
Francisco.
Projections:
Cam Newton: 210 pass yds, 1 TD, 1 INT, 40 rush yds
DeAngelo Williams: 50 rush yds, 10 rec yds
Jonathan Stewart: 40 rec yds, 10 rec yds
Mike Tolbert: 25 rush yds, 1 TD, 20 rec yds
Steve Smith: 55 rec yds
Brandon LaFell: 40 rec yds, 1 TD
Greg Olsen: 50 rec yds
Passing
Game Thoughts: His first five games of the season were
frustrating for fantasy owners, but those who took a chance and
stuck with their man through his trials and tribulations have
been paid off handsomely as San Francisco quarterback Colin Kaepernick
has finally begun heating up. Kaepernick has hit 15, 19 and 27
fantasy points over his past three games, including a huge fantasy
performance against the hapless Jaguars in Week 8. What fantasy
owners have been happiest about recently has been Kaepernick’s
increase in rushing output. After failing to exceed 20 yards on
the ground from Weeks 3 through 6, Kaepernick has rushed for 68
and 54 yards over his past two games. More importantly, during
those nice outputs, he also got into the end zone a total of three
times—his first rushing scores of the season. The unfortunate
thing is that while Kaepernick is scoring touchdowns through the
air and on the ground recently, he has failed to hit the 200-yard
mark through the air in six of his past seven games. We can try
to cover our eyes and ears regarding that fact, but there has
to be concern that halfway through the season without Michael
Crabtree, Kaepernick simply doesn’t seem to have much rapport
with his wide receivers. Anquan Boldin has almost completely fallen
off the fantasy radar. He has not scored since Week 4 and has
not had more than five receptions in any game since his gigantic
Week 1 outburst. The one player who has continued to be productive
despite Kaepernick’s inconsistency as a passer has been
tight end Vernon Davis. Davis has been over 60 yards receiving
and/or scored a touchdown in each of his past five games, continuing
to prove the point that he is one of the few elite players that
exist at the tight end position.
With Kaepernick and Davis being the only players in the 49ers’
passing game worth fantasy confidence, what’s important
is to take a look at their opportunity against a Carolina pass
defense that is the very best in the league so far this season.
In fairness, the Panthers may have had the most cakewalk schedule
of any team when it comes to the quarterbacks they have played,
but these are still NFL teams they are shutting down. Not a single
opposing fantasy quarterback has gone over 15 fantasy points against
Carolina so far this season and they have also held quarterbacks
to single digit fantasy production in half of their games. Davis
has been essentially matchup-proof throughout his career and it’s
unlikely that fantasy owners have a better option, but those considering
Kaepernick should strongly weigh their other options this week
against this very good Carolina defense. Although Kaepernick has
been hot as of late, this is a tough matchup and one that he could
certainly struggle to produce within.
Running Game Thoughts: Back-to-back matchups against the league’s
only winless teams have certainly been the recipe for some nice
fantasy production for San Francisco running back Frank Gore.
The veteran has scored two touchdowns on the ground in each of
his past two games and has been on a stretch of six straight games
of double-digit fantasy output (standard scoring). That streak
increases to seven of his past eight games overall. As one of
the true workhorse backs in the league, Gore has averaged 21 carries
per game over his past five contests. Although he hasn’t
been the kind of player to take over games this season, the number
of carries he is getting in conjunction with running behind one
of the best offensive lines in the league has made him one of
the more dependable fantasy backs. Some worry about the red zone
“vulture” touches that Kendall Hunter and Anthony
Dixon have taken, but neither player has much fantasy value of
his own other than in very deep, touchdown-only formats. This
game isn’t expected to be a blowout either way, so don’t
expect to see much of Hunter or Dixon this week.
Gore will have a challenging day as he goes up against one of
the best front sevens in the NFL. Carolina has held opposing teams’
running backs to single digits in five of their eight contests
this season. Only two teams have had over 80 yards rushing against
the Carolina defense this season. While Carolina has allowed an
abnormally high amount of receiving yards to opposing running
backs, the current San Francisco offense simply doesn’t
utilize Gore in the passing game enough for him to be much of
a threat in that department. Gore is a must-start at the moment
given how the San Francisco offense has been built around him,
but this is definitely the kind of defense that could slow him
down. He’s done it in back-to-back weeks, but try not to
expect him to score multiple touchdowns against Carolina.
Projections:
Colin Kaepernick: 170 pass yds, 1 TD, 1 INT, 40 rush yds
Frank Gore: 70 rush yds, 1 TD
Anquan Boldin: 50 rec yds
Vernon Davis: 60 rec yds, 1 TD
Prediction: 49ers 23, Panthers 20
Texans @ Cardinals
- (Caron)
Passing Game Thoughts: The “Case”
for Keenum grew much hotter in Week 9 as the Texans narrowly lost
to the Indianapolis Colts, largely due to the play of second-year
quarterback Case Keenum. Keenum completed 20 of his 34 passes
for 350 yards and three touchdowns this past week. He has now
thrown for a grand total of 621 yards, four touchdowns and zero
interceptions in his two starts for Houston. The Texans got off
to an incredibly hot first half as Keenum completed three first
half touchdown passes, all to all-pro wide receiver Andre Johnson.
Johnson, who had not caught a touchdown since Week 15 of the 2012
season, made us all remember why he can be one of the most dominant
weapons in all of fantasy sports when he’s on. In two starts
with Keenum under center, Johnson has caught 13 passes for 318
yards and three scores. Clearly Johnson has not seen a drop-off
in his production with the absence of Matt Schaub, and neither
has rookie receiver DeAndre Hopkins whose six receptions for 130
yards and a touchdown with Keenum under center have been a significant
improvement from his previous three contests where he compiled
just six total fantasy points (standard scoring). Even tight end
Garrett Graham has been staying involved in the offense, although
it is true that he has fallen back to reality after a crazy start
to the season where he scored three touchdowns in four games.
Keenum is not the kind of player who will make for a great every
week fantasy option but his Week 10 matchup against the Arizona
Cardinals could go a long way in determining if he has more value
than just the one big game or if he was indeed just a flash in
the pan. Arizona has allowed opposing quarterbacks to throw for
over 250 yards in six of their first eight contests this season.
While they have done an excellent job of forcing turnovers with
12 picks forced already, they have also struggled at times to
stop opposing QB’s from getting the ball into the end zone.
The Cardinals have allowed multiple passing touchdowns in more
than half of their games this season, which could mean an opportunity
for Keenum to pick up where he left off. With Arian Foster looking
less and less likely to play by the day, the Texans will need
to rely on Keenum and the passing game. It’s hard to trust
Keenum with such a little sample size, but if you’re in
a tough situation, you could do worse than the Texans signal caller
in Week 10.
Running Game Thoughts: Fantasy owners of Texans running back
Arian Foster knew they were taking a chance when they drafted
him with their first round pick this offseason. While Foster has
been by far and away the best overall fantasy back in the league
over the past few seasons, numerous nagging injuries caused major
concern going into the year. While Foster had been able to produce
early in the year, it appears as though a back injury may hold
him out of the team’s Week 10 matchup in Arizona. Foster
took just four carries in Kansas City back in Week 7 before being
pulled from the game early. Most thought that a bye week would
remedy the situation, but things got even worse when the team
returned to play in Week 9. Fantasy owners put their trust in
Foster, who was declared active, only to fail to record a single
carry all afternoon against Indianapolis. Now heading into Week
7, it appears as if the Texans may have to turn to backup Ben
Tate to shoulder the load in what has still been one of the league’s
most dominant rushing attacks despite the lack of success the
team has had as a whole. Tate, who is battling a rib injury of
his own, is expected to play barring any setbacks, and immediately
becomes a solid RB2 for fantasy purposes so long as Foster is
out. He took 22 carries for 81 yards a week ago against the Colts
and could be in line for a similar workload in Week 10.
Arizona has been very good against the run this season, having
only conceded two total scores to the position on the entire year.
After not allowing a team to rush for 100 yards in any of their
first five games, the Cardinals have since slipped up a bit in
that category, allowing back-to-back 100-yard rushing performances
to the 49ers and Seahawks. While Ben Tate may not have the skill
set of a Marshawn Lynch or Frank Gore, he is still a very serviceable
back who may be playing for a future starting gig elsewhere in
the league. Even against a stout Arizona run defense, Tate is
a solid fantasy RB2 in Week 10. The Texans love to run the ball
near the goal line and with Foster unlikely to suit up, Tate should
have every opportunity to get into the end zone and make his fantasy
owners very happy.
Projections:
Case Keenum: 250 pass yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
Ben Tate: 75 rush yds, 1 TD, 15 rec yds
Andre Johnson: 100 rec yds
DeAndre Hopkins: 50 rec yds, 1 TD
Garrett Graham: 40 rec yds
Passing
Game Thoughts: It hasn’t been pretty but with a 10-point
output in Week 8 against the Falcons, Cardinals quarterback Carson
Palmer has achieved double-digit fantasy production in three straight
contests. More importantly, Palmer snapped his string of five
straight contests where he had thrown multiple interceptions.
Unfortunately for Palmer owners, he did not escape the Atlanta
game unscathed, as he did throw one interception, bringing his
season total to a shockingly awful 14 interceptions. Palmer has
thrown at least one pick in every game this season and his total
is only worse than the Giants’ Eli Manning. Production from
Palmer has been wildly inconsistent this season, but fantasy owners
can’t be relying on him as much as they are his top receiver,
Larry Fitzgerald. Fitzgerald has been even more up-and-down than
Palmer, producing double-digit fantasy totals in half of his eight
contests this season. The down side, however, has been that Fitzgerald
has been at or below 6 total fantasy points (standard scoring)
in the other half of his games. A nagging hamstring injury certainly
hasn’t helped and it’s possible that Fitzgerald has
healed a bit during the team’s bye week, but it’s
still hard to trust a player who has been as disappointingly bad
as Fitzgerald has since the beginning of the 2012 season. If Fitzgerald
is going to pick up the pace, he’s going to need some help
from his partner in crime, second-year receiver Michael Floyd.
Floyd has really come on in recent weeks. Although the totals
don’t sound exceptional, Floyd has averaged 7.6 fantasy
points per game (standard scoring) over his past five contests
and has been a reliable target for Palmer. If Floyd can continue
to create separation and perhaps create a few more big plays down
the field, we could see defenses begin to shift off of Fitzgerald
a bit more than they currently are.
The Houston secondary has been a very odd one to follow this
season. While they have forced just three total interceptions—tied
for fewest in the league—the Texans have also allowed the
fewest passing yardage in the NFL by a wide margin. With 1,378
yards allowed through the air through eight games, the Texans
have allowed 370 fewer yards passing than any other team. Certainly
Houston has benefited from a weak schedule of opposing quarterbacks
faced, but the reality is that the Houston secondary and the up-front
pressure from players like JJ Watt have made this defense a very
tough fantasy matchup most weeks. They have been exploited a bit
in recent weeks, however. By the end of this past Sunday’s
game, Andrew Luck lit them up to the tune of 271 yards and three
touchdowns through the air, for a total of 24 fantasy points in
standard scoring formats. By comparison, the Colts held Joe Flacco,
Russell Wilson and Colin Kaepernick to a combined 24 fantasy points
from Weeks 3 through 5. Carson Palmer is an interception machine
and the Texans look almost completely incapable of forcing interceptions,
so something has to give. My bet is that Palmer keeps the ball
out of the hands of the defense, but also struggles to move it
down the field, leaving fantasy owners with a mediocre fantasy
day.
Running Game Thoughts: Just a few weeks ago, we were all baffled
to see Andre Ellington take only three total carries against the
Seahawks despite leading the team by a significant margin in yards
per carry. Bruce Arians and the coaching staff in Arizona appeared
to be all-in on their offseason addition, Rashard Mendenhall,
who has been awful to say the least. But when Mendenhall was forced
out of the lineup with a toe injury, it was Ellington’s
chance to shine. And shine he did. Ellington rushed for 154 yards
and a touchdown on just 15 carries in a breakout performance against
the Atlanta Falcons. Fans got a glimpse of the playmaking ability
that has made fantasy owners salivate, but that may already be
coming to an end with Mendenhall now expected to be back on the
field for the Cardinals’ Week 10 matchup with Houston. Arians
has said that he would like to continue to get the ball in Ellington’s
hands, even daring to say that he could see as many as 20 touches
per game. That’s great news for fantasy owners who had seen
him fail to touch the ball even 10 times in most games this year,
but it’s still hard to trust this coaching staff. It appeared
obvious to anyone who was paying attention that Ellington was
massively out producing Mendenhall, but he was still only taking
about 1/3 of the carries for the Cardinals until Mendenhall’s
injury. Now that Mendenhall and Ellington are both healthy, this
game will be a great opportunity for us to see how these players
will be utilized going forward.
They’ll be up against a Houston defense that did a great
job shutting down Trent Richardson a week ago, but had allowed
an average of 111 rushing yards per game to opposing running backs
in their previous four contests. Ellington is the upside play
here, particularly in PPR formats where he has become a reliable
pass catcher out of the backfield, but also in standard scoring
formats. While some may sneak Mendenhall back in their lineup,
it’d be hard to believe that he’s suddenly going to
break out of his funk in the game immediately following an injury.
Mendenhall has not rushed for even 70 yards in any game this season
and although he has scored three rushing touchdowns, his prospects
of doing that will be limited with Ellington now in line to see
more touches.
Projections:
Carson Palmer: 150 pass yds, 1 TD
Andre Ellington: 70 rush yds, 1 TD, 25 rec yds
Michael Floyd: 50 rec yds
Larry Fitzgerald: 40 rec yds, 1 TD
Prediction: Cardinals 20, Texans 17
Broncos @ Chargers
- (Caron)
Passing Game Thoughts: Never has
a quarterback been on a pace anywhere near what Peyton Manning
has done through the first half of the NFL season. Manning’s
29 passing touchdowns through eight games are already more than
all but five quarterbacks (including himself) threw in the entire
2012 season. Let that sink in for a moment. Manning has already
put together what would be considered a “good” fantasy
season...and he still has eight more games to play. With the Broncos
coming off a bye and Manning having time to rest his sore ankles,
it’s not hard to understand why practically every single
fantasy expert in the country has the Broncos’ signal caller
ranked at the top of their fantasy projections for Week 10. If
there is anything to nitpick about what Manning has done recently,
it’s that he has been a little overconfident with some throws.
After avoiding throwing an interception in any of his first four
games, Manning has since thrown at least one pick in each of his
past four starts, culminating in a three-INT performance the last
time we saw him, against Washington. Manning hasn’t had
a problem with interceptions in well over a decade, so we’ll
chalk that up to happenstance, but it is worth considering that
his injured ankles may be causing him to deliver the ball with
modified mechanics. Still, Manning is as stone cold of a lock
fantasy QB1 as is possible right now, and his receivers are no
different.
While the Chargers have avoided allowing a wide receiver to score
in any of their past three games, they have not done a very good
job of slowing down players at the position as a whole. They’ve
allowed a combined 491 yards to wide receivers during that stretch
and that number could skyrocket on Sunday against Denver. Broncos
receiver Wes Welker is battling an ankle injury of his own, but
is expected to be near full strength this Sunday in what should
be another great game for him. In his past five games against
the Chargers, Welker has averaged an impressive seven receptions
per game. If he hits that number this week, he is almost a lock
to be one of the league’s top-scoring fantasy contributors.
Both Eric Decker and Demaryius Thomas have great track records
against the Chargers as well. Both players caught a touchdown
in each of their two games against San Diego a season ago and
appear to be a great bet to make that happen again against the
Chargers’ 28th-ranked fantasy defense against wide receivers.
The Chargers have allowed 212 or more yards to opposing receivers
in five of their eight games this season and with the league’s
most potent offense lined up against them, it’d practically
take a miracle for that number to not go up by a game. The lone
note of concern with this offense comes in the form of tight end
Julius Thomas who suffered a mild ankle sprain in the team’s
Week 8 victory over Washington. While Thomas has been practicing,
his work has been limited in preparation for Sunday’s game.
It is believed that he will suit up, but Thomas may not be his
usual playmaking self. That could hurt against a Chargers defense
has done a surprisingly good job against opposing tight ends this
season. They have not allowed a touchdown or more than 60 yards
to the position since Week 1. It’s unlikely that fantasy
owners are going to have a better option than Thomas assuming
he plays, but this may be a week to temper expectations for this
normally elite fantasy tight end.
Running Game Thoughts: If ever a running back has come out of
nowhere to become a fantasy stud, it is Denver tailback Knowshon
Moreno. With all reports indicating that Moreno would be the team’s
third-string back coming into the year behind Ronnie Hillman and
rookie Montee Ball, who could have possibly imagined that we would
see high-end RB1 fantasy production from a player who was written
off as a first round NFL draft bust? Moreno has done it, though,
and 18-point fantasy day against the Redskins in Week 8 marked
the fifth straight game that he has been in double digits (standard
scoring). Moreno rushed for fewer than 45 yards for the third
straight week, but his six receptions for 89 yards and a touchdown
more than made up for that. Moreno now leads all backs with nine
total scores heading into Week 10.
San Diego had been one of the league’s best run defenses
heading into their Week 8 matchup with the Redskins, but were
exposed to the tune of 156 yards and four touchdowns in their
loss, which dropped them all the way down to 11th in the fantasy
defense rankings. It’d be tough to imagine that Denver produces
a similar kind of day on the ground given their expertise at throwing
the ball, but San Diego is clearly reeling after that awful performance
and Denver could be smelling blood. Typically it’s hard
to trust players who rely so heavily on touchdowns for their fantasy
production, but given Denver’s offensive firepower, Moreno
is about as safe of a player to have an opportunity to score as
you’re going to find in the league. The Broncos are a dynamic
offense that loves to mix things up, which should lead to plenty
of opportunities for Moreno to continue building upon his excellent
season.
Projections:
Peyton Manning: 375 pass yds, 3 TD
Knowshon Moreno: 70 rush yds, 2 TD, 40 rec yds
Demaryius Thomas: 90 rec yds, 1 TD
Eric Decker: 80 rec yds, 1 TD
Wes Welker: 75 rec yds, 1 TD
Julius Thomas: 50 rec yds
Passing
Game Thoughts: The impressive fantasy days just keep rolling
in for Chargers quarterback Philip Rivers who notched an 18-point
performance against the Redskins in Week 9. Although his team
lost, Rivers’ 341 yards marked the fourth time in eight
games that he has hit that number or higher already this season.
What has been most impressive about Rivers’ return to fantasy
prominence is that he has been doing it with a rag-tag group of
pass catchers, many of whom were castoffs from other organizations.
As it currently stands, Danny Woodhead leads all Chargers receivers
with 49 receptions, but it is Eddie Royal who leads the team with
an impressive seven touchdowns. After a four game drought from
the end zone, Royal has now scored in back-to-back weeks and he
continues to be by far the team’s most effective red zone
option. Antonio Gates has been a bit quiet over his past few games,
having failed to catch a touchdown since his huge 10-catch performance
against Dallas back in Week 4. Still, Gates has remained a valuable
asset, particularly in PPR formats as he is currently on pace
for 96 receptions. His previous career high in a season was 89
catches back in 2005. The breakout star in recent weeks has been
rookie wide receiver Keenan Allen, who continued his impressive
stretch of statistical output with an eight catch, 128-yard and
one score performance back in Week 9 against the Redskins. Allen
is averaging nearly 100 yards per game over his past five contests
and has clearly established himself as the WR1 in San Diego. While
Allen is not yet a WR1 in fantasy circles until we see him do
this a couple more times, the numbers don’t lie. Allen has
been incredibly impressive and has a good chance to improve on
those numbers as he goes up against one of the league’s
most vulnerable secondaries this week.
Only five teams have allowed more fantasy points to opposing
wide receivers than the Broncos in thus far in 2013. Denver is
getting healthier on defense, but they still have their hands
full in trying to slow down this San Diego passing game that has
been so effective this season. Denver has allowed an average of
25.3 fantasy points per game (standard scoring) to opposing wide
receivers and they have also struggled against the tight end position.
Denver has already conceded five games of 90+ yards to opposing
tight ends in 2013 and Antonio Gates could make a push to make
it six. Keenan Allen, Antonio Gates and Philip Rivers are all
must-starts in Week 10 in what could be the highest-scoring game
of the week. Eddie Royal is also an option for those looking to
roll the dice in hopes of a touchdown.
Running Game Thoughts: After they had run the ball over 30 times
in their prior two games, it was a bit surprising to see San Diego
abandon the run so quickly against the Redskins in Week 9. Running
backs Ryan Mathews and Danny Woodhead combined for just 14 carries
for 55 yards. For Mathews owners, it was a disappointing fantasy
day as the back had gone over 100 rushing yards in each of his
previous two contests, including scoring his first touchdown of
the season back in Week 7 against the Jaguars. Woodhead owners
would have been very frustrated with his 21-yard rushing performance
if it weren’t for his unbelievable skills as a pass catcher.
Woodhead added 77 yards as a receiver, tied his season-high total
with nine receptions and continued to remind us why he is one
of the most underappreciated fantasy commodities in the entire
league, especially in PPR formats. Woodhead’s 48 receptions
tie him for 10th in the league among all players and he leads
all running backs in that stat. With the Chargers likely to throw
the ball a ton in an effort to keep up with the Broncos, look
for Woodhead to see additional playing time in Week 10. Mathews
will still be on the field and should have some value, but don’t
expect him to take more than 10 total touches. Meanwhile, Woodhead
could be in line for some significant touches. He hasn’t
touched the ball fewer than 10 times since all the way back in
Week 1 and although he hasn’t yet hit 20 touches in a game,
this could be the week that happens.
Denver has not yet been hit for a gigantic game by any opposing
running back, but the fact that they have allowed double-digit
fantasy points to the position (standard scoring) in every single
game has to bring some extra confidence to fantasy owners of Mathews
and Woodhead. Despite the fact that the Broncos are winning most
games by double digits, opposing teams have scored a touchdown
on the ground all but one game against Denver thus far in 2013.
Woodhead is a must-start in PPR formats and could even be worth
RB2 consideration in standard scoring formats. Mathews remains
a low-end FLEX option for the time being, but does have some upside
if the Chargers are able to keep the game close.
Projections:
Philip Rivers: 350 pass yds, 3 TD, 2 INT
Danny Woodhead: 50 rush yds, 70 rec yds, 1 TD
Ryan Mathews: 40 rush yds, 25 rec yds
Keenan Allen: 110 rec yds, 1 TD
Eddie Royal: 50 rec yds
Antonio Gates: 70 rec yds, 1 TD
Prediction: Broncos 41, Chargers
30
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