|
Fantasy Football Strategy, Advice, and Commentary |
|
 By: Dave Stringer — December 14, 2010 @ 1:13 pm
QUARTERBACKS
Moving Up
Alex Smith, 49ers
Alex Smith was back in the saddle this week after Mike Singletary came to the realization that Troy Smith’s upside and leadership abilities weren’t going to help him secure his place as the team’s head coach in 2011. So in steps Smith for San Francisco’s home game against a Seahawks defense that struggles mightily against the pass. The 49ers quarterback didn’t disappoint, throwing for 255 yards and three touchdowns.
Kerry Collins, Titans
After a dismal Week 13 performance against a suspect Jaguars secondary in his first game back from a calf injury, Collins put up a solid game this Thursday night during the Titans’ 30-28 loss to the Colts. Despite not getting much production from his wide receivers (including Kenny Brit, who was back in action), Collins went 28 of 39 for 244 yards and three touchdowns without an interception. Up next are the Texans and their league-worst pass defense, followed by a Chiefs team that is struggling to slow down opposing quarterbacks.
Jason Campbell, Raiders
Campbell has had an up and down first season in a Raiders uniform, but this week against the Jaguars he put on a show, playing his best game of the season. With the running back duo of Michael Bush and Darren McFadden playing well (McFadden also chipped in with a 67-yard touchdown reception), the Raiders were able to effectively use play action against the Jaguars. At the end of the day, Campbell had 324 passing yards and a pair of touchdowns.
Moving Down
Aaron Rodgers, Packers
Rodgers got the Moving Up designation last week due to his outstanding performance this season and because there weren’t any performances that warranted inclusion in that category. This week, he’s Moving Down due to the concussion he suffered in the Packers road loss to the Lions on Sunday. Rodgers went out in the second quarter, after being used as a human yo-yo by Lions defenders Landon Johnson and Amari Spievey. The concussion is his second of the season (the other came in Week 5 against the Redskins) and that increases the likelihood that he won’t start in Green Bay’s Week 15 game against the Patriots. No doubt that many of his owners lost this week due to his meager production, but those that survived may have to rely on their backup next week—and it’s safe to assume that most Rodgers owners didn’t invest heavily in an upper-tier backup.
Ben Roethlisberger, Steelers
With his subpar performance this week against the Bengals (258 passing yards and no touchdowns), Roethlisberger has now been entirely average for three straight games. Over that span, he has thrown for a respectable 757 yards but has just one touchdown pass and hasn’t padded his fantasy point totals with much rushing production. Worse yet, those performances have come against the Bills, Ravens, and Bengals, a trio of mid-tier passing defenses.
Brodie Croyle, Chiefs
I warned you in my “Dave’s Take” column that he was 0-9 as a starter entering this week’s game against the Chargers. In case you missed that debacle, he’s now 0-10 as a starter, and if he gets the nod in a road contest against the Rams in Week 15, you can bet that will move to 0-11.
RUNNING BACKS
Moving Up
Ryan Torain, Redskins
It’s been my position ever since Torain stepped in for Clinton Portis that he is the best young pure running back on the team’s roster, and he proved it again this week. Sure, he can’t seem to stay healthy, which limits his upside in dynasty leagues, but he has been productive when in the lineup. This week he gashed the Bucs for 172 yards on 24 carries. That marks the third time that Torain has topped 100 rushing yards in the five games that he has started when he has played the entire game. The Redskins will enter the 2011 offseason with plenty of needs, and head coach Mike Shanahan has a history of using unheralded running backs, so Torain will likely enter next season atop the team’s depth chart at running back, with a mid- or lower-round draft pick looking to unseat him. With Dallas and Jacksonville up next, Torain has a chance to further entrench himself as the team’s starter and help his fantasy owners win some championships.
Brian Westbrook, 49ers
I figured Westbrook would get the majority of the work when Frank Gore was lost for the year, but the team has basically split the work between Westbrook and rookie sixth-round pick Anthony Dixon. No matter, as Westbrook apparently plays better when he can stay fresh. Both players had 15 touches this week, but Westbrook was the better performer, gaining 23 yards on the ground to go along with six receptions for 87 yards, which included a 62-yard scamper for a touchdown. Two factors are working in Westbrook’s favor. One, Alex Smith is in at quarterback, and he’s more of a check-down artist than Troy Smith, who likes to throw it down the field. Two, the 49ers remain in the playoff hunt, so there’s no reason for them to give Dixon more work.
Tim Hightower, Cardinals
Chris Wells was expected to be the man for the Cardinals this season, but injuries and ineffectiveness have prevented that from happening. While his owners keep expecting Wells to step to the forefront of the Cardinals backfield, it appears—if the last five weeks are any indication—Hightower will remain the team’s starter. Over that five-week span, Hightower has 69 touches to just 24 for Wells, and he had a solid game this week against Denver with 148 yards rushing and a pair of touchdowns.
Brandon Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw, Giants
Jacobs and Bradshaw both have three touchdowns and 200 or more rushing yards over their last two games. Let’s just say the Giants running game is rolling and both players are safe plays in your starting lineup.
Rashad Jennings, Jaguars
Jennings has exploded onto the scene over the last three weeks, moving from a handcuff with almost no value to a solid flex play. This week against Oakland, he had the first 100-yard game of his career and scored on a 74-yard touchdown run. He also had a 16-yard run where he was stopped just shy of the end zone. Jennings has now scored a touchdown in three straight games, hitting double-digit fantasy points in each contest.
Javarris James, Colts
Do I think he’s that good? No. Do I think he will start for the rest of the season? No. Basically, I don’t think much of him, but here are the numbers: six touchdowns in his last six games. If you use him as your flex and he scores, you’re smiling. If he doesn’t score, you’re kicking yourself. That’s where it’s at with James. Up next are the very average run defenses of the Jaguars (15th against the run and just gave up 209 total yards and three touchdowns to Darren McFadden) and the Raiders (21st against the run and just gave up 234 rushing yards and a pair of touchdowns on the ground to the Jaguars).
Moving Down
Marshawn Lynch, Seahawks
I gave Lynch a lukewarm Moving Up last week, courtesy of his 83-yard, three-touchdown rushing performance against the Panthers. Sure enough, he had a stinker this week, gaining just 29 yards on ten carries against the 49ers. He did chip in seven receptions for 37 yards to come away with a respectable fantasy point total, but his lack of ability to make big plays has to be a concern for Seattle management. It remains to be seen whether Lynch has done enough to earn a starting role in 2011 and prevent Seattle from using a high draft pick on the position.
Chris Ivory, Saints
Ivory looked good against the Rams this week, gaining 47 yards on just seven carries before leaving the game with a hamstring injury. That injury coupled with Pierre Thomas’ return to the lineup significantly reduces Ivory’s value. While he had the potential to be a low-end RB2 with Thomas out, Ivory now rates as nothing better than a low-end flex option in leagues that employ the position. That is an unfortunate turn of events for an undrafted free agent who leads all rookie running backs in rushing yards, carries, and touchdowns.
Reggie Bush, Saints
Is it permissible to have two Saints players Moving Down at one time when their offense is rolling? We’ll find out. In his three games since returning from a broken fibula, Bush has been a disappointment. He has been used sparingly in both the running and the passing game, with just 15 carries for 66 yards and nine receptions for 34 yards. At this point, he’s a risky flex play at best.
Thomas Jones, Chiefs
Jones hasn’t found the end zone in three weeks, and with the Chiefs playing from behind early this week against the Chargers, he finished with three rushes for one yard. That was his fewest touches in a game this season. If Matt Cassel isn’t a go at quarterback, Jones could be in for a rough ride in this week’s road contest against the Rams, who have been solid against the run this season (12th overall).
WIDE RECEIVERS
Moving Up
Arrelious Benn, Buccaneers
With Mike Williams slowing down, Benn stepped to the forefront of the Buccaneers passing game, having easily his best game of the season this week against the Redskins. He caught all four of his targets for 122 yards, upping his yards-per-reception average to 16.4. That is an impressive figure considering that Benn has been used mostly on short throws and screens, and it appears as through Tampa Bay is ready to expand his role. Benn has questionable value over the remainder of 2010 but is a great prospect in dynasty leagues.
Steve Johnson and David Nelson, Bills
With Lee Evans likely out for the season with what may be a high ankle sprain, the Bills will move Nelson into the starting lineup. He caught a touchdown pass this week and has looked good when given an opportunity this season. Johnson has slowed down recently, failing to find the end zone in the last three weeks and gaining just 146 yards in those games. That begs the question: Will opposing defenses be able to shut Johnson down now that Evans isn’t starting across from him? I think that Johnson is good enough to remain productive, despite the added attention, and he should benefit from the extra touches.
 Malcom Floyd: A high end WR2. Malcom Floyd, Chargers
It’s been a bit of a roller coaster ride for Floyd since his return in Week 11 from a hamstring injury. He caught two passes and had a touchdown in his first game back, followed that up with a doughnut, and then caught four passes for 72 yards last week. This week against the Chiefs he snagged four balls for 51 yards and a pair of touchdowns and likely would have lit up the stat sheet had the Chargers not gotten out to such a big lead. With Vincent Jackson being used sparingly and Antonio Gates iffy, Floyd is Philip Rivers’ go-to guy, especially in the red zone. He’s a high-end WR2 from here on out.
Ruvell Martin, Seahawks
Ruvell who? Unless you’re an NFL diehard, Martin isn’t somebody you’ve heard of, and he’s not likely somebody you will here from in 2011. The Seahawks were without their top two receivers in Mike Williams and Ben Obomanu this week and then lost Deon Butler to a season-ending injury. So Martin stepped up, catching four passes for 73 yards and a touchdown. If you’re desperate, Martin is worth a look, particularly if Williams and Obomanu are out again this week.
Moving Down
Randy Moss, Titans
Benched. No targets. Fantasy value: zero.
Dwayne Bowe, Chiefs
No receptions against the Broncos’ Champ Bailey is allowed. A single reception for three measly yards against the Chargers secondary isn’t. Bowe has always been a streaky receiver, and the odds of him being on the wrong side of that equation go way up if Brodie Croyle is under center again this week.
Terrell Owens, Bengals
T.O. has had a productive year with the Bengals, although his fantasy points belie his true value on the field. He and quarterback Carson Palmer haven’t been on the same page on several plays this season, and the two had a somewhat animated sideline conversation about just that this week. With the end of the season nearing and Owens having played well enough to justify a contract somewhere in 2011, he seems to have grown disinterested in Cincinnati and has put up just ten receptions for 86 yards and a touchdown over his last three games. Not exactly the type of production his fantasy owners were banking on.
TIGHT ENDS
Moving Up
Jason Witten, Cowboys
Witten has been a bit of a sleeping giant at tight end in recent years, posting solid yardage totals but having a tough time finding the end zone. He’s bucked that trend in 2010, especially over the last two weeks with three touchdowns. With six touchdowns on the year, he is one shy of matching a career-high set in 2008, and he appears a solid bet to get there. Over the last three games, Witten has caught all 22 of his targets—as well as 26 of his last 27. With Dez Bryant out and Roy Williams apparently not part of the game plan, Witten is in line for plenty of looks over the balance of the season.
Moving Down
Antonio Gates, Chargers
When he’s in, he’s great, but it’s nearly impossible to figure whether he’s actually going to play. This week, the Chargers play in the Thursday nighter, so the start/sit call is an easy one. In Weeks 16 and 17, when San Diego plays in the late afternoon, that’s going to be much tougher to figure out.
By: Dave Stringer — December 10, 2010 @ 12:43 pm
1. With the Chiefs getting ready for their biggest late-season game in the year, it appears they will be without quarterback Matt Cassel for this week’s road game in San Diego. Cassel underwent appendectomy surgery this week and will likely be a game-time decision. With an 8-4 record, a Chiefs win coupled with a Raiders loss in Jacksonville would likely give Kansas City an insurmountable lead in capturing their first AFC West title since 2002. However, if Cassel can’t go, backup Brodie Croyle will take over under center, and he has compiled a horrendous 0-9 record as a starter since being taken in the second round of the 2007 draft.
2. While Kansas City is within sight of their first division title in years, the Colts are getting precariously close to sitting out the playoffs for the first time since the 2001 season. Surprisingly, the main problem for the Colts at the moment is at quarterback. Peyton Manning had thrown 11 interceptions in the three games prior to Thursday night’s win over the Titans. Those three games ended up as losses, due largely to four of Manning’s interceptions being returned for touchdowns, one of which resulted in a game-winning field goal for the Cowboys in overtime. Indianapolis was outscored 40-0 off turnovers in those games. The four picks Manning threw in each of the two games prior to Week 14 are a career first. Despite all of this, the Colts still control their own destiny. Having beaten the Texans on Thursday night, they still have the opportunity to take the AFC South title if they can win their two remaining games.
3. Despite playing with a broken nose for almost the entire game, Pittsburgh quarterback Ben Roethlisberger continued his mastery over the Ravens on Sunday night. With the Steelers racking up ten fourth-quarter points to come from behind for a 13-10 win, Roethlisberger now has an 8-2 lifetime record against Baltimore, which includes six straight wins.
4. With losses in their last two games, the Buccaneers’ surprising run at a playoff spot is losing steam, and you don’t have to look any further than the team’s lengthy injury list for an explanation. The group most affected has been the offensive line, where left tackle Donald Penn is the team’s only offensive lineman lining up where he started in Week 1. Center Jeff Faine was placed on injured reserve this week, joining right guard Davin Joseph. Also, right tackle Jeremy Trueblood has lost his starting spot to James Lee. Rookie Ted Larsen has taken over at left guard for Keydrick Vincent, who was released a few weeks ago. Jeremy Zuttah, a converted guard, will step in for Faine this week while another rookie, Derek Hardman, will start in place of Joseph. The Bucs have featured a trio of surprise fantasy performers this year in quarterback Josh Freeman, running back LeGarrette Blount, and wide receiver Mike Williams, but the state of the offensive line should concern those players’ owners.
5. The Bucs ship might be sinking, but division rival New Orleans appears to have hit their stride over the past five weeks. And the fantasy owners of the Saints skill position players should continue to reap the benefits over the remainder of the season. The Saints have won five straight games and have scored at least 30 points in each of their last four games. If any Saints players are available on the waiver wire in your league, they are likely worth grabbing.
 Taking care of the ball. 6. The Packers offense has been a boon for any fantasy owner wise enough to have grabbed Green Bay’s skill position players in this year’s draft; and quarterback Aaron Rodgers is once again the top fantasy quarterback. On the field, Rodgers is continuing to build upon his solid 2009 season and has now thrown 177 consecutive passes without an interception, the second-longest of that streak in Packers history. And, no, Brett Favre (of course) is not the current owner of that record. It belongs to another Packers legend, Bart Starr.
7. The sad-sack Bills haven’t been able to buy a break thus far in 2010. They have lost five games by five or fewer points, including three losses by three points in overtime with one coming on a last-second field goal. With a glaring need for a franchise quarterback as well as reinforcements at several positions, Bills fans are now looking toward the draft and hoping for a quick turnaround similar to the Rams’ solid season, which has come largely through the performance of this year’s first overall pick, quarterback Sam Bradford. With a 2-10 record, Buffalo sits tied with Detroit and Cincinnati and is one game ahead of Carolina (1-11). However, the chances of Buffalo landing the top pick and selecting Stanford quarterback Andrew Luck remain disappointing slim for Bills followers. That’s because the tiebreaker in determining draft position for non-playoff teams is the strength of a team’s opponents, with the team with a more difficult schedule being ranked above a team with an easier schedule. The Bills lose out due to the excellent records of the team’s in their division, with the Patriots, Jets, and Dolphins having a combined record of 25-11. In essence, the Bills get punished for being in a good division, and that will likely prevent them, once again, from acquiring a potential franchise quarterback.
8. If there’s a silver lining for Bills fans, look no further than the battered state of the team’s offensive line, which will greatly reduce their chances of winning another game in 2010. With the Dolphins, Patriots, and Jets on tap for Weeks 15-17, the Bills only realistic chance for another win comes this week when they face the Browns in Buffalo. Cleveland lost both its starting and second-string centers this week when Geoff Hangartner and Kraig Urbik were lost to knee injuries. Those injuries will likely result in left guard Andy Levitre sliding over to center, a position he has never played professionally. Undrafted rookie free agent Cord Howard will take over for Levitre at left guard. Eric Wood will likely return to the starting lineup at right guard after having missed two games with an ankle injury. And Mansfield Wrotto, who wasn’t even with the Bills in training camp, will line up at right tackle. Buffalo has regularly ignored the offensive line in the draft—a philosophy that obviously needs to change going forward.
9. As you’ve heard several times by now, the Chargers have been ranked near the top of the league in both offense and defense for much of the season; they were even ranked No. 1 in each category for several weeks. However, they are coming off a poor showing at home in a key divisional game against the Raiders and, surprisingly, it was their inability to stop the run that was their undoing. Michael Bush finished with 104 rushing yards, becoming the first player to gain over 100 yards on the ground against the Chargers in 2010. Prior to that, the most yards they had given up to one player was the 91 they allowed to the Chiefs’ Jamaal Charles on opening day. Worse yet for the Chargers, Darren McFadden finished with 97 yards, leaving him just three yards shy of the century mark. With a 6-6 record and four games remaining, the Chargers need help to reach the playoffs and are behind both Oakland and Kansas City with a division record of 1-3. Their schedule isn’t daunting, however, with this week’s game against the Chiefs being their biggest test. But barring a Kansas City collapse, the Chargers seem destined to be on the outside looking in come playoff time.
10. Falcons wide receiver Roddy White has been on fire for much of the 2010 season. With seven receptions for 74 yards this week, he topped his previous high in receptions and now has 91 on the season. At this point, it appears White will become the first Falcon to catch 100 passes since the diminutive Eric Metcalf did so in 1995.
11. The Cowboys have had a three-headed fantasy monster at running back this season with Felix Jones, Marion Barber, and Tashard Choice all playing a role—yet none of them have been significant fantasy performers. With Barber out of the lineup last Sunday and the Colts and their feeble run defense on tap, Dallas had their best rushing performance of the season, courtesy of a 100-yard, one-touchdown performance by Choice and a 22-carry, 83-yard performance by Jones. Barber has been a huge disappointment this season and carries a hefty price tag for next season, which will result in his release unless his accepts a drastic salary reduction. Look for Dallas to go with a Jones–Choice tandem in 2011, and don’t be surprised if Choice ends up being the better fantasy performer. He has been productive when given an opportunity, and the Cowboys view him as the better short-yardage runner, which should translate into better touchdown production than Jones.
12. Another young running back whose performance in Week 13 increased his value in dynasty leagues is Green Bay’s James Stark. The rookie fell to the sixth round of the NFL draft due to injury problems in college, but the Packers like his size/speed combination. Incumbent Ryan Grant is on injured reserve and carries a 2011 salary of just under $6 million in the final year of his deal. Despite not having played since his junior season, Starks was solid in his first game as a pro, gaining 73 yards on 19 carries. With Brandon Jackson having used his extensive playing time in 2010 to prove that he is nothing more than a backup, Starks will almost certainly enter 2011 at no worse than second on the depth chart.
13. Raiders rookie fourth-round pick Jacoby Ford has been impressive in limited action this season and has come on of late, with a pair of 100-yard receiving games and two touchdowns in his last four games. Although Ford has been productive, Oakland head coach Tom Cable announced this week that Ford isn’t assured of retaining his starting spot once the team’s veteran receivers are healthy. That may just be a motivational ploy, but it won’t be a surprise if Louis Murphy and Darrius Heyward-Bey take over as the team’s starters, relegating Ford to a backup role.
By: Dave Stringer — December 7, 2010 @ 5:10 pm
QUARTERBACKS
Moving Up
Aaron Rodgers, Packers
I’m loath to have a guy who was my preseason pick as the top fantasy quarterback Moving Up, but it’s an extremely dry week for solid performances by mid-tier players at the position, so Rodgers gets the nod. With 1,232 passing yards, 11 passing touchdowns, no interceptions, 152 rushing yards, and a touchdown in his last four games, Rodgers is peaking at just the right time for his fantasy owners.
Moving Down
 Manning's INTs make his fantasy owners sad. Peyton Manning, Colts
In standard scoring leagues, Manning is running smoothly, collecting 83 fantasy points over his last three games. In leagues that penalize interceptions, it’s an entirely different story. Manning has thrown four interceptions in consecutive games and has 11 picks in his last three games, both firsts in his career. In leagues that deduct two points for interceptions, his totals for the last two weeks are 14 and 18.
Ryan Fitzpatrick, Bills
After racking up a healthy 23.5 points per game over his first eight games, Fitzpatrick has fizzled out with 29 combined points in losses to the Steelers and the Vikings. The Minnesota game represented his second-worst fantasy performance of the season, and the state of the team’s offensive line reduces his chances of bouncing back. The Bills lost starting center Geoff Hangartner and backup Kraig Urbik this week. With both players likely out for the season, Buffalo will start Mansfield Wrotto, who was signed off the street in October, at right tackle.
Kyle Orton, Broncos
Orton is coming off his worst game of the season, and with head coach Josh McDaniels fired this week, the probability that Tim Tebow will get a start or two for the Broncos increases. McDaniels was fighting to return in 2011, so he was obligated to play Orton in order to secure as many wins as possible. Now that he has been replaced by former running backs coach Eric Studesville—and with the Broncos fans in a serious state of discontent—it won’t be a surprise to see Tebow inserted into the starting lineup to accomplish two things: appease the team’s fan base, and get Tebow some valuable playing time. I predict that Tebow starts in Week 16.
RUNNING BACKS
Moving Up
James Starks, Packers
Meet Green Bay’s new lead running back. Incumbent Brandon Jackson may continue to get the nod in the starting lineup, but—make no mistake about it—Starks will lead the team in carries over the remainder of the season, barring injuries or fumbling issues. Starks put up 73 yards on 19 carries in the Packers win over the 49ers, with Jackson getting only eight total touches in the backup and pass-receiving roles. Starks’ upside is limited somewhat with John Kuhn likely to continue getting the goal line work, but Starks is the Packers back to own in the fantasy playoffs. With Ryan Grant turning 28 before the start of next season, coming off an injured ankle, and due $5.75 million in the final year of his contract in 2011, Starks is an excellent prospect in dynasty leagues.
Tashard Choice and Felix Jones, Cowboys
With Marion Barber out against the Colts and their sad-sack run defense, Choice and Jones stepped up with their best games of the season. Choice had 19 carries for 100 yards and a score while Jones gained 83 yards on 22 carries, along with three receptions for eight yards. With Barber expected to be released after the season, these guys are the Cowboys’ running back duo of the future. And with the playoffs out of reach, there’s no need to bring Barber back into the picture. Up next are the Eagles (ranked 12th in run defense), the Redskins (26th), and the Cardinals (28th).
Marshawn Lynch, Seahawks
Lynch has been mostly atrocious since joining the Seahawks (273 rushing yards and two touchdowns through seven games before this week) but had his best game in a Seattle uniform this week against a Panthers run defense that has ranked near the bottom of the league for the entire season. Lynch ran it 22 times for 83 yards and a pair of touchdowns and also chipped in 17 yards with a reception. If this sounds like a lukewarm endorsement, it is. But having the second-most fantasy points of the week at running back gets you Moving Up.
Chris Ivory, Saints
One week he’s losing touches to Julius Jones, the next week he goes off for 117 yards and a pair of touchdowns. Great flex option, but difficult to rely on as your RB2.
Moving Down
Ryan Mathews, Chargers
Mathews was healthy enough to play but never saw the field this week against the Raiders. The list of reasons for his lack of productivity is a lengthy one: injuries, poor pass protection, inadequate receiving skills, game situations dictating the use of Mike Tolbert or Darren Sproles. At this point, Tolbert is the guy running it and Sproles is the guy catching it. Mathews is the guy sitting on the bench.
LaDainian Tomlinson, Jets
For the first half of the season, LT was the feel-good story of the year because of his surprising production as the Jets’ lead running back. Since then, he’s fallen off and his fantasy owners are starting to wonder when he will find the end zone next. He has now gone six games without scoring, hasn’t topped 60 yards rushing in any of those games, and has hit double-digit fantasy points only twice during that span. Basically, he’s fallen to RB3 status.
Keiland Williams, Redskins
After two games as the Redskins’ lead runner, head coach Mike Shanahan ditched Williams in favor of the former Brown, James Davis. Williams is a serviceable pass catcher out of the backfield, but he’s not explosive in that capacity and he leaves plenty to be desired when running the ball. I doubt he even makes the team in 2011.
Mike Goodson, Panthers
Goodson was solid when given an opportunity. Jonathan Stewart was not. With both players healthy, who did head coach John Fox give the nod to last week? Stewart. Good luck figuring that one out.
WIDE RECEIVERS
Moving Up
Sidney Rice, Vikings
It looks like those of you who held on to Rice hoping he would be productive in the fantasy playoffs are about to be rewarded. He torched the Bills this week for 105 yards and a pair of scores on five receptions. He’s a startable commodity from here on in.
Roy Williams, Cowboys
Dez Bryant is out for the year with a broken ankle, so Williams will resume a more prominent role in the Cowboys passing attack. Williams has been mostly forgotten since Week 4, but prior to that he was productive. Over the first quarter of the season, he had 18 receptions for 278 yards and three touchdowns. That’s solid WR3 production, and there’s little reason to suggest he can’t post those types of numbers again with Bryant out.
Earl Bennett, Bears
When the Bears decided to cut back on Devin Hester’s snaps at receiver so he could concentrate on his return duties, Bennett’s opportunities increased. This week he took advantage of that to the tune of a career-best 104 yards and matched his career-high in receptions with seven. Last week, he had four receptions for 56 yards and a pair of touchdowns, so he is peaking at just the right time for his fantasy owners. He has caught 11 of his 13 targets over the past two weeks, so a bigger role might be in the offing.
Deion Branch, Patriots
In his first game back with the Patriots, Branch was solid in a win over the Ravens, but he followed that up with three stinkers. Since then, with Tom Brady on fire, Branch has had 71, 70, 113, and 74 yards, with two touchdowns in Week 12 and one this week against the Jets. That’s steady production and it means that Branch should be a reliable starter in the fantasy playoffs.
Moving Down
Mario Manningham, Giants
With Steve Smith and Hakeem Nicks out of the lineup, Manningham was expected to be Eli Manning’s go-to guy at wide receiver. That hasn’t happened, and recently signed journeyman Derek Hagan got most of the looks during this week’s blowout win over the Redskins. Manningham has been a disappointment over the last three games, with just eight receptions for 121 yards and a score.
Steve Smith, Panthers
With a favorable matchup against the porous Seattle secondary, Smith caught just three of ten targets for 54 yards. That was just his second game in his last nine with more than 50 yards receiving, and he hasn’t found the end zone since Week 2. Smith will be 32 by the start of next season, and his yards per receptions went from 18.2 in 2008 to 14.8 last year to 12.8 this season. How much of that relates to Smith’s declining abilities and how much of it relates to poor play at quarterback is difficult to determine, but the bottom line is that he is no longer a big-play threat at wide receiver.
James Jones, Packers
Jones has been up and down like a yo-yo in 2010. With Donald Driver back to health this week, Jones surprisingly took a back seat, getting just four targets and catching two balls for eight measly yards. With his work this season, Jones shapes up as a solid prospect in dynasty leagues, but he’s a risky start for the remainder of 2010.
TIGHT ENDS
Moving Up
Brandon Pettigrew, Loins
Steady as she goes for Pettigrew. With five receptions for 36 yards this week, Pettigrew became the first tight end in Lions history to catch 60 passes in a season. He’s a dynamite prospect in all dynasty leagues but especially so in PPR formats. With 33 targets over his last four games, Pettigrew has emerged as a consistent receiving threat in a Lions passing offense that’s been surprisingly productive and should be even better in 2011.
Ed Dickson, Ravens
Todd Heap pulled a hamstring early in the Ravens’ loss to the Steelers, and after the game head coach John Harbaugh said the team’s young tight ends would have to step up. Dickson figures to take over for Heap, and he has the talent to make some plays in the passing game—although he has displayed questionable hands thus far in his rookie season. His seven targets after stepping in for Heap on Sunday night show that he will get an opportunity. Let’s see if he can take advantage of it.
Moving Down
Visanthe Shiancoe, Vikings
It’s been four games since Shiancoe has found the end zone, and he has only 106 receiving yards during that stretch. With three targets in two of the last three games, he isn’t getting many opportunities, and that’s hurting his production.
By: Dave Stringer — December 3, 2010 @ 2:01 pm
1. Off the top, let’s head to Denver where coach Josh McDaniels is apparently doing all he can both on and off the field to earn himself a pink slip from owner Pat Bowlen. If losing 16 of his last 21 games weren’t bad enough, McDaniels and the Broncos attracted headlines this week when they were each fined for videotaping a portion of the 49ers walkthrough before the teams played against each other in London. The league and the team both wrote off the incident as videotaping by a rogue employee without the consent of McDaniels. However, McDaniels was fined for not immediately reporting the incident, and CBS analyst Bill Cowher chimed in, basically stating that it defied logic for an employee to videotape a walkthrough without being told by someone to do so. There is clearly more to this story than has been told. Bowlen offered a lukewarm endorsement of McDaniels this week while acknowledging the fans’ discontent with the team’s performance under McDaniels. However, given McDaniels poor performance as both a coach and in the personnel area, if this story has a long shelf life and inflicts more damage on McDaniels than it already has, look for Bowlen to relent to the demands of the Broncos fans and to jettison McDaniels.
2. Eagles wide receiver DeSean Jackson was visibly frustrated after the loss to the Bears this week in a game in which Jay Cutler became only the second quarterback since 1999 to throw four touchdowns against Philadelphia. It was reported that Jackson had to be consoled by quarterback Michael Vick after head coach Andy Reid ripped Jackson’s effort in front of the team after the game. Jackson is undeniably a talented player who deserves to be mentioned when discussing the best young wide receivers in the game, but incidents like this are the reason he fell to the second round of the draft and was taken after several other receivers. It says a lot about a player’s maturity when he has to be consoled by someone with Vick’s past.
3. Keeping with the Eagles, Vick had his consecutive-passes-without-an-interception streak broken at 240 when he was intercepted by Bears safety Chris Harrison. The streak dated all the way back to the 2006 season.
4. The Rams got over a major hurdle in Week 12, finally breaking through for their first road win in a game in which quarterback Sam Bradford threw for more than 300 yards for the first time his career. The win was a big one for St. Louis, after they blew leads in the final seconds on the road against the Bucs and the 49ers and lost a winnable game in Oakland. The combined margin of victory in those three games was just six points. Bradford won the league’s Offensive Rookie of the Month award for the second time and has thrown for 1,307 yards and 11 touchdowns with just one interception over his last six games. If he continues on his current pace, Bradford’s rookie season will compare favorably to the production most of the league’s top signal callers recorded in their first season as starters.
5. There was a lot of criticism of the league for their handling of the Andre Johnson–Cortland Finnegan fiasco from Week 12, but you won’t hear any of it from this corner. Both players were fined $25,000 for their actions. While Johnson was the aggressor and deserved to be fined, the league was in a difficult position, given the number of fines the Titans have received this year and given Finnegan’s deserved reputation as a dirty player and his role in instigating Johnson by attacking his helmet with a dirty quick jam during the play in question. Johnson rightly apologized for his actions; but for his part Finnegan claimed innocence, dubiously stating that it wasn’t fair that the fines were equal considering that he did not retaliate—which means little since Johnson basically pummeled him, leaving Finnegan no opportunity to retaliate. Finnegan has often been cited as one of the league’s dirtiest players, if not its dirtiest, and his four fines this season back that claim up. If anything, Finnegan should have been suspended for his role in provoking the incident and his lengthy history of league punishment.
6. With their loss this week to the Chargers, the Colts fell to 6-5 on the year and are now assured of finishing with under 12 wins in the regular season for the first time since the 2002 season.
7. Sticking with the Colts, you have to go back a long way to remember a time when Peyton Manning struggled as much as he has over the past four games. While his fantasy point total was solid in three of those four games, he has struggled on the field, tossing seven interceptions in his last two games while failing to throw a single touchdown in one of those last two. The Colts have just one win in the last four games, and several pundits have suggested that Manning is suffering due to the team’s numerous injuries among their receivers, with starters Dallas Clark and Austin Collie both out with injuries. However, the team’s poor play along the offensive line has been an even bigger problem, particularly at guard. The team’s run blocking has been poor for several seasons but has reached a new low in 2010, with the team ranked 29th in both rushing offense and yards per carry. This week, right guard Jeff Linkenbach was repeatedly overpowered by Chargers defensive tackle Antonio Garay, and it will be a shock if he is back in the starting lineup in Week 13. Look for Mike Pollak or Jamey Richard to take his place. Both players were benched earlier in the season for their poor play, so the Colts are likely to struggle at the guard position over the balance of the season.
8. We have repeatedly read about the increased risk of injury that players face when they holdout, so it came as no surprise when Chargers wide receiver Vincent Jackson left his team’s win over Indy this week after just a few plays. Jackson had sat out for much of the season in a oft-publicized contract dispute with San Diego before reporting in order to serve a suspension before being eligible to go on the active roster. Sure enough, he suffered what is termed a calf injury, although some are questioning how severe the injury actually is. Either way, the end result was predictable enough. Something to keep in mind when drafting your fantasy squad in future years.
 McDaniels: No shortage of criticism. 9. Broncos head coach Josh McDaniels has received plenty of criticism for several of his personnel moves, and it appears that the team’s decision to trade a fourth-round pick in next year’s draft to New England in exchange for running back Laurence Maroney and the Patriots’ sixth-round pick will join the list. Maroney has been inactive since Week 6 and has fallen behind Correll Buckhalter and Lance Ball on the team’s depth chart at running back. With Ball contributing on special teams, Maroney is unlikely to see the field for the remainder of the season, barring injury to another running back. While Buckhalter seems unlikely to return in 2010, the team will probably bring in another running back to compete with Maroney—given his lackluster performance this season—for the top backup spot behind Knowshon Moreno.
10. Picked in the second round of the 2009 draft, Bills safety Jairus Byrd was a revelation as a rookie, intercepting nine passes in 14 games despite only starting in nine contests. However, his production this season is way off from last year’s pace, and he has failed to intercept a pass and has forced just one turnover.
11. Sticking with the Bills, a quick look at their recent selections in the first round provides plenty of proof as to why the organization has struggled for several seasons, failing to reach the playoffs since the 2000 season. This year’s selection, running back C.J. Spiller, has failed to make an impact on a Bills team desperate for big plays on offense. Outside linebacker Aaron Maybin (2009) has been a complete bust and stands a good chance of being released in the offseason, though fellow 2009 draft pick Eric Wood looks to be a fixture at guard for years to come. Cornerback Leodis McKelvin (2008) hasn’t developed as expected and has been relegated to nickel-back duty for the most part. Running back Marshawn Lynch (2007) courted controversy and provided little production before being dealt to Seattle for a fourth-round draft pick. While Donte Whitner has emerged as a starter at safety, he has not proven worthy of being the eighth player taken in the 2006 draft. And fellow 2006 first-round pick John McCargo has been a bust at defensive tackle. Going further back, there are a number of other players who fit the bust category: quarterback J.P. Losman (2004), tackle Mike Williams (2002), and defensive end Erik Flower (2000).
12. Cardinals quarterback Derek Anderson went off on a beat journalist after Arizona’s dismal performance on Monday night against the 49ers. When asked why he was smiling on the sideline during the game, Anderson blew up, offering an expletive-laced response. With Anderson performing so poorly, maybe he should take the focus off himself rather than attracting the added publicity his blowup provided.
13. Browns coach Eric Mangini came out this week and said that quarterback Jake Delhomme needed to cut back on his mistakes. What prompted Mangini’s comment was the interception Delhomme threw to Panthers cornerback Captain Munnerlyn that was returned for a touchdown, but the comment seems ridiculous since the Browns knew how error-prone Delhomme was when they signed him. Counting the Panthers’ 2008 playoff loss to Arizona, Delhomme had thrown 23 interceptions in his last 12 games before signing an astronomical two-year, $12.4-million contract with Cleveland that pays him $7 million this season. In three games with the Browns, Delhomme has thrown six picks, continuing the two-interception-per-game performances he’s had since his final games in Carolina.
14. If you’re looking for a favorite to land the top seed in the NFC, look no further than Atlanta. The Falcons currently sit atop the NFC, and their remaining schedule features three winnable road games (Buccaneers, Panthers, Seahawks) and home games against the Saints and the Panthers. With a 6-0 home record this season and quarterback Matt Ryan sporting a nifty 19-1 record in the Georgia Dome, the Falcons have a decent chance to win all of their remaining games and finish 14-2.
By: Dave Stringer — November 30, 2010 @ 5:37 pm
QUARTERBACKS
Moving Up
Sam Bradford, Rams
The Rams’ boy wonder had the first 300-yard game of his career this week, tossing for 308 yards and three touchdowns against Denver. The performance further solidifies his standing as the overwhelming favorite to win the Rookie of the Year award. What had to excite Bradford owners is that he produced in a road contest for the second game in a row after having three subpar road games to start his career. Over his last six games, Bradford has thrown for 1,307 yards with 11 touchdowns and one interception. The Rams’ next four games feature only one opponent that Bradford owners will want to stay away from—the Saints, in Week 14.
Tom Brady, Patriots
It took a while for Brady to adjust to the Patriots offense without Randy Moss, but he seems to be peaking now. After a slow start, he lit up the Lions on Thanksgiving Day for 341 yards and four touchdowns. Sure, most of the damage came against cornerback Alphonso Smith, who was clearly overwhelmed by whichever receiver the Patriots lined up against him. Brady now has multiple touchdown passes in four straight games, totaling 11 over that stretch. A few games after the Moss trade, Brady was looking like a matchup starter, but he now looks like he could finish the season in the top five at quarterback.
Jay Cutler, Bears
Cutler had his best game of the season this week, tossing four touchdowns and gaining 247 yards through the air against the Eagles. He took advantage of an Eagles secondary absent their best player, cornerback Asante Samuel. With nine touchdown passes in his last four games, it seems that Cutler may finally be picking up the nuances of the Mike Martz offense, and just in time to propel the Bears into the playoffs and solidify himself as week-in, week-out starter for fantasy purposes.
Moving Down
Troy Smith, 49ers
He’s followed up a pair of solid performances with a pair of duds. Over the last two weeks, Smith has just 277 passing yards and a pair of touchdowns. Smith’s problem is that he can’t make plays in the pocket, and with the loss of Frank Gore, the entire offense is likely to suffer. When you lose your stud running back, the team’s quarterback generally gets more opportunities to produce in the passing game, but I don’t see Smith taking advantage of that. More likely, he will struggle more than he already has.
RUNNING BACKS
Moving Up
 Waiver wire darling for week 13. Brian Westbrook, 49ers
After getting nine touches through the 49ers’ first ten games of the season, Westbrook was persona non grata for fantasy purposes and not even worth holding on to as Frank Gore’s handcuff. That all changed in an instant when Gore suffered a hip injury that is expected to land him on injured reserve. Westbrook figures to get the nod as the team’s starting running back, with Anthony Dixon getting an increased role as a backup since Westbrook can hardly be counted on to handle the workload Gore typically carries. Still, Westbrook is more capable of taking over for Gore because of the number of catches Gore gets out of the backfield. Westbrook looked great gaining 136 yards and a touchdown on 23 carries against an obviously disinterested Cardinals defense on Monday night. And only the Chargers in Week 15 represent a formidable foe over the next four weeks, so Westbrook is definitely worth grabbing if he’s on your league’s waiver wire.
Toby Gerhart, Vikings
Here’s another example of a handcuff barely worth owning suddenly getting a major uptick in fantasy value courtesy of an injury. Adrian Peterson apparently hurt not one but both ankles this week, and his availability for the upcoming game against the Bills’ 32nd-ranked run defense is in question. That makes Gerhart a potential great start this week, and AP owners need to grab him if he’s available since this one looks like it will be a game-time decision.
Julius Jones, Saints
Chris Ivory had the better fantasy stats, courtesy of his two touchdown runs, but it was Jones who had more touches this week (13 to 7). With just one reception on the season, the Saints clearly don’t trust Ivory in the passing game since he comes out in those situations, most likely due to his poor blitz recognition. Jones had a spring in his step this week, and with Pierre Thomas’ return still uncertain, he may be poised to grab a bigger piece of the workload in the Saints backfield.
Mike Tolbert, Chargers
He’s Moving Up again this week. Tolbert chalked up his second consecutive 100-yard, one-touchdown performance this week against the Colts. He has 271 total yards and a pair of touchdowns over the past two games (both Chargers wins), so there’s no reason to think Ryan Mathews will get the starting nod when he returns.
Jonathan Stewart, Panthers
I’m lukewarm on this one. On the one hand, Stewart had his most productive game of the season against the Browns with 12 carries for 98 yards. On the other hand, Mike Goodson still had more touches, gaining 136 yards and a touchdown on 22 carries. While Goodson deserves to keep the starting job, Panthers head coach John Fox befuddled the masses by starting Brian St. Pierre at quarterback a week after signing him, so reading the tea leaves on this one is not an easy task.
Moving Down
Chris Johnson, Titans
Merriam-Webster’s Dictionary defines correlation as “a relation existing between phenomena or things or between mathematical or statistical variables which tend to vary, be associated, or occur together in a way not expected on the basis of chance alone.” You’re thinking, “Whoa, this is FF, dude. Ditch the English lecture.” Here’s the rub: Rusty Smith started the FIRST game of his career this week and Johnson had the WORST game of his career. There is a direct correlation between Smith starting and Johnson’s performance. And until Kerry Collins returns to the starting lineup, Johnson’s production is going to suffer.
Darren McFadden, Raiders
His paltry stats this week against the Dolphins marked McFadden’s second consecutive poor performance. He gained just two yards on eight carries against Miami’s middle-of-the-road defense a week after getting 14 yards on 10 carries against the Steelers. He now has gone four straight games without scoring and faces the Chargers’ stiff run defense in Week 13. Fortunately for McFadden owners, it’s the Jaguars (20th-ranked run defense), Broncos (30th), and Colts (29th) after that.
WIDE RECEIVERS
Moving Up
Dwayne Bowe, Chiefs
With three touchdowns this week, Bowe continued his amazing stretch of superlative performances and now has 13 touchdowns over his past seven games. That has propelled him to the No. 1 ranking among wide receivers, a few fantasy points ahead of Brandon Lloyd. You could have made some major money in Vegas if you had bet on that prior to the season opener.
Danario Alexander, Rams
In his first game back since suffering a knee injury a month ago, Alexander was on fire against the Broncos. He didn’t seem to miss a beat in his return to action, gaining 95 yards on four receptions in limited play. Look for Alexander’s snaps to increase, provided he can stay healthy. The Rams have been spreading the ball around successfully in the passing game, but Alexander is their only wide receiver with enough size to be a consistent chain-mover on third downs. That should translate into more targets and more production in the coming weeks.
Wes Welker, Patriots
Welker was Moving Down after the Randy Moss trade, as he seemed to struggle with the added attention opposing defenses were giving him. That has changed though, with Welker gaining 237 yards on 21 receptions over the past three weeks and scoring three touchdowns over the Patriots’ last two games. While I’m not ready to anoint him WR1 material over the balance of the season, he is shaping up as a high-end WR2 from here on out.
Ben Obomanu, Seahawks
I told you last week in my “Dave’s Take” column that Obomanu was the Seahawks wide receiver to target—rather than Deon Butler—to replace Mike Williams. Sure enough, he went off for 159 yards and a touchdown on five receptions, giving him ten receptions for 246 yards and a pair of touchdowns over the last two weeks. If he’s still available in your league, grab him pronto.
Moving Down
Deon Butler, Seahawks
OK, this is just bragging, but Butler gained a paltry nine yards on two receptions despite getting a healthy nine targets. Butler has some potential in dynasty leagues, but he’s not worth owning in shallow redraft formats.
Dez Bryant, Cowboys
The bad news is that he was shut out. Perhaps the good news was that when he whined about not getting enough looks, the Cowboys started force feeding him the ball. In this case, the bad outweighs the good, so Bryant is Moving Down.
Randy Moss and Nate Washington, Titans
I’ll repeat what I said last week: “Rusty Smith is at quarterback. Enough said.” Kerry Collins isn’t guaranteed to be back this week and I would bench both of these guys if he can’t go.
TIGHT ENDS
Moving Up
Brent Celek, Eagles
I’ve been hammering him all year as the biggest bust of the season at tight end, so it’s only fair that he is Moving Up this week after having his best fantasy performance of the season with three receptions for 50 yards and a touchdown. The Eagles get the Texans’ 30th-ranked pass defense this week, followed by the Cowboys (22nd) in Week 14, so maybe it’s time to dust Celek off and give him a start.
Moving Down
Zach Miller, Raiders
Miller had a great start to the season, but he has fizzled out in a big way over the past four weeks. He suffered a torn plantar fascia, causing him to miss one game and gain just 23 yards on four receptions in the two weeks since. This week, he suffered a contusion to his lower right leg, meaning his prospects of turning his season back around just got dimmer.
By: Dave Stringer — November 26, 2010 @ 2:57 pm
1. Let’s start off by jumping into the coaching issues that will impact the 2011 season. In Dallas, Cowboys owner Jerry Jones has handed over the reins to offensive coordinator Jason Garrett after firing Wade Phillips. At the time of Phillips’ firing, there were rumors that Jones would finally hire a general manager as well as a new head coach and hand over decision-making authority to the duo. That was wishful thinking. Jones has run the Cowboys with an iron grip save for two periods. First, when Jimmie Johnson was running the show; then, when Bill Parcells was in charge. Garrett is currently 2-1 as the team’s head coach, with a tough loss on Thanksgiving in a game the Cowboys should have won. If Jones’ end game is to retain his power within the organization, then it is easy to ignore his comment that the team has been contacted by Super Bowl–winning coaches about the Dallas head coaching position. While that may be true, hiring such a coach would lessen Jones’ control, and it therefore seems unlikely to happen. Look for Jones to soon hire Garrett as the team’s coach for next season, before a losing streak jeopardizes his ability to rationalize that hiring Garrett is the proper decision.
2. Over in Minnesota, Brad Childress was finally shown the door, less than a season removed from being a few plays from taking the Vikings to the Super Bowl. Quarterback Brett Favre cost Childress and the Vikings a chance to go to the Super Bowl last season and, with his poor play this season, Favre likely cost Childress his job. While many can argue that Childress’ time was up, we may never know how much say he had in the team’s decisions to bring back Favre for another season and to trade for wide receiver Randy Moss. One thing we do know is that with Childress gone, Favre will remain the starting quarterback for the balance of the season, barring injury. Interim head coach Leslie Frazier is essentially auditioning not only for the Vikings job in 2011 but also for other openings that will come up once the season ends. Because of that, he is going to field the team’s best lineup on Sundays, with no regard to grooming players for next season. That ensures that Favre will be under center in Minnesota.
3. Here is my list of coaches who may not be back with their current teams, in order of the most likely to go: John Fox in Carolina, Mike Singletary in San Francisco, Gary Kubiak in Houston, Marvin Lewis in Cincinnati, Eric Mangini in Cleveland, and Josh McDaniels in Denver. Despite having underachieving teams, it looks like Jim Schwartz is safe in Detroit, as is Ken Whisenhunt in Arizona. In Tennessee, Jeff Fisher will likely decide his own fate if owner Bud Adams refuses to release the troubled Vince Young, but look for Adams to pick the proven track record of Fisher over the potential that Young offers at quarterback.
4. The Thanksgiving Day game between the Patriots and Lions offered a great contrast in the coaching philosophies of each team. In New England, head coach Bill Belichick has shown he isn’t afraid to bench players during a game if they aren’t performing, change the starting lineup on a weekly basis based on the performances from the previous game, or release players who have been productive in the previous year if they have had a bad training camp. Over in Detroit, the Lions have held on to several players far longer than they should have and refuse to give up on high draft picks, even if they have long stretches of poor play (although Schwartz has brought some improvement to that area). However, this week the Lions coaching staff left themselves open to much criticism by refusing to bench starting cornerback Alphonso Smith despite his horrendous effort against the Patriots. He was torched for three passing touchdowns—making little effort to shove Deion Branch out of bounds on one of them—and got steamrolled on BenJarvus Green-Ellis’ touchdown run in another evident lack of effort. Schwartz should be given credit for the improvement the Lions have shown during his tenure, but he needs to go a step further by making his players accountable.
 Unstoppable? Matt Ryan is. 5. The Falcons have had a strong start to the season. While that wasn’t unexpected, their current position atop the standings in the NFC certainly is. A big part of the reason for their 8-2 record is their strong play in the Georgia Dome, and they enter this week’s home game against the Packers with a 5-0 home record. Simply put, quarterback Matt Ryan has been nearly unbeatable at home since entering the league. The Falcons have a home record of 18-1 when Ryan starts.
6. With the Broncos recent decision to give rookie first round pick Tim Tebow more playing time at quarterback, there has been some speculation the team may be planning to start him for a game or two at the end of the season. Don’t expect that to happen. When Denver drafted Tebow, they were well aware that he was a project at quarterback, and all indications are that they do not view him as a potential starter until the 2012 season. Incumbent Kyle Orton has played well and is signed for the 2011 season at just under $9 million, with $5.5 million of that amount guaranteed. While Tebow may get some spot playing time at quarterback in special packages, he is no threat to take over under center at any point this season.
7. Mark it down: the winner of the NFC West will finish the season with a losing record. The Seahawks currently lead the division with a 5-5 record and face three teams with winning records in their last six games. They also have to go on the road to face the 49ers, and they get the Rams at home, who they lost to 20-3 earlier in the season. As a whole, the division has a .375 winning percentage (15-25) with six of those wins coming in interdivisional games. That translates into a winning percentage of .321 (9-19). The NFC West division winner will be the fourth seed in the conference, with a matchup against the top wildcard team—and you can bet that the wildcard team will be heavily favored in that game.
8. Not a whole lot better over in the AFC West, where the division sports a .475 winning percentage. At least the winner of the AFC West will likely be favored in their home playoff game.
9. Current Bengals wide receiver Terrell Owens has had a fabulous career that will one day land him in the Hall of Fame. What he apparently doesn’t have a future in is evaluating talent. T.O. declared this week that Darrelle Revis was an average cornerback, an outlandish statement given Revis’ earned reputation as one of the top two, if not the top cornerback in the league. On Thanksgiving night, the Jets cornerback tandem of Revis and Antonio Cromartie showed T.O. just how wrong he was by limiting him and Chad Ochocinco to a combined seven receptions for 58 yards.
10. The Giants decided this week they had had enough of Ahmad Bradshaw’s fumbling issues, and the first-year starter was benched in favor of the player he had replaced, Brandon Jacobs. However, Bradshaw isn’t the only Giant who has had issues with ball protection in 2010. Quarterback Eli Manning has received kudos for his passing and is on pace for career highs in yardage and touchdowns. However, that has been more than offset by his inability to protect the football; he has lost five fumbles and has thrown 16 interceptions so far this year. Given the state of the team’s receiving corps, it won’t be a surprise if he ends up with career highs in those categories as well.
11. With reclamation project Mike Williams likely on the shelf this week with a foot injury, Seahawks wide receiver Deon Butler is getting some attention as a suitable waiver wire addition. Butler has had a decent second season in the league, but Ben Obomanu has come on over the last two games, catching nine of 11 targets for 147 yards and a touchdown. He now has touchdowns in two of his last three games. Picked in the seventh round of the 2006 draft, Obomanu has always tantalized the team with his potential and playmaking ability in practice, but that has rarely translated into production on game day. With Butler perhaps better suited to playing out of the slot and with rookie second-round pick Golden Tate having a disappointing season, Obomanu is worth taking a flyer on in dynasty leagues—with an outside chance that he becomes a WR3 over the balance of the 2010 season.
12. With the Browns coming off a pair of solid outings, most expected them to go into Jacksonville this week and come out with a win. That didn’t happen, as they dropped a 24-20 decision to Jacksonville, despite the fact that the Cleveland defense forced six turnovers. It is rare for a team to lose when they generate that many turnovers and rarer still when they win the turnover battle by five (the Jaguars forced just one Cleveland turnover).
13. You have to hand it to the Houston Texans pass defense: This unit knows how to blow a lead every way imaginable. Two weeks ago, they lost on a final-second Hail Mary pass that was deflected by Glover Quin into the waiting arms of Jaguars wide receiver Mike Thomas. This week they lost on a last-minute drive by the Jets after kicking a field goal to go up by four points. Texans head coach Gary Kubiak took heat after the loss for his decision to call three running plays from the Jets’ 10-yard line rather than taking a shot in the end zone. While it’s hard to imagine a coach thinking that he needed to score a touchdown to go up by eight points rather than playing for a field goal with 45 seconds remaining, in this case the criticism might be justified. The porous Texans secondary promptly gave up 24 yards on a pair of passes to LaDainian Tomlinson before allowing Braylon Edwards to break free down the right sideline for a 42-yard gain to the Texans’ seven-yard line. With Houston sitting at 4-6 and 12th in the AFC, and with Kubiak almost certainly needing a playoff berth to return in 2011, these two last-second losses are likely the key moments of Kubiak’s demise.
By: Dave Stringer — November 23, 2010 @ 1:43 pm
QUARTERBACKS
Moving Up
 Can Sanchez keep this up? Mark Sanchez, Jets
With the Jets running game middling along, Sanchez has stepped to the forefront of the team’s offense and has provided a spark in the passing game. He seems to be meshing well with wide receiver Santonio Holmes and is on the hottest streak of his career. Over the past three games, Sanchez has thrown for 937 yards and six touchdowns while chipping in two scores on the ground. Over the next five weeks, the Jets face only one top ten passing defense, so maybe, just maybe, Sanchez will prove to be a worthy fantasy starter over that stretch.
Shaun Hill, Lions
Hill continued his run of strong performances this week, tossing for 289 yards and a pair of touchdowns in a loss against the Cowboys. In the games that he has started and not been injured in, Hill is averaging 290 passing yards and just under two touchdowns per game. Those are starter-worthy numbers. With the Lions on a short week and Matthew Stafford not expected to play, Hill gets the start this week against the Patriots’ 30th-ranked pass defense, a unit that just gave up 396 yards and four touchdowns to Peyton Manning despite the Colts being desperately thin at wide receiver.
Moving Down
Eli Manning, Giants
The news for Manning and the Giants went from bad to worse this week when the team announced that wide receiver Hakeem Hicks would likely miss three weeks with compartment syndrome. Steve Smith is also out with a torn pectoral muscle, and his return has been pushed back to Week 14. With Ramses Barden and Victor Cruz on injured reserve, the Giants were forced to sign Derek Hagan off the street last week, and he became by default their third wide receiver on Monday night. He will likely now move into the starting lineup, with undrafted rookie free agent Duke Calhoun serving as the team’s third receiver. Manning wasn’t able to overcome all the wide receiver injuries in Week 11, as he passed for only 147 yards with two touchdowns and three interceptions against an average Eagles secondary. The schedule is favorable with Jacksonville and Washington up next, but expecting Manning to continue as a Top 10 fantasy quarterback is foolhardy.
Vince Young, Titans
Young’s season—and quite likely his career in Tennessee—is over, courtesy of the thumb injury he suffered this week. After his brouhaha with head coach Jeff Fisher, it appears that either the coach or Young will have to go. Initial reports indicate that owner Bud Adams wants the two to resolve their differences, but look for Fisher to nix that plan and for Adams to come to his senses and pick his future Hall of Fame coach over his head case quarterback.
RUNNING BACKS
Moving Up
Mike Goodson, Panthers
In Week 10, Goodson became the first Panthers running back to top 100 yards rushing in a game this year—and he followed that up with another 100-yard performance this week against the Ravens. In two games as the Panthers starter, Goodson has amassed 264 total yards, giving Carolina little reason to hand the starting position back over to Jonathan Stewart. The schedule looks decent with three solid matchups against the Browns, Seahawks, and Cardinals. You will likely want to sit him, however, against the Falcons in Week 14 and against the Steelers in Week 16. Unless the Panthers inexplicably bench him (hey, John Fox inserted Brian St. Pierre at quarterback after signing him a week earlier), Goodson should produce down the stretch.
Mike Tolbert, Chargers
Who needs Ryan Mathews? Not the Chargers, that’s for sure. With the team expected to have a full contingent of receivers next week, San Diego seems ready to go on another late-season win streak, which likely bodes well for whoever is at running back for the Chargers. Tolbert was the guy this week against the Broncos, and he got the fourth quarter mop-up work, gaining 111 yards and a touchdown on 25 carries and chipping in 42 yards on a pair of receptions. Expect Tolbert to be the guy from here on out, as well. The Chargers are winning, Tolbert is playing well, and with a healthy cast of receivers, there is a reduced need for big plays from the running back position.
Chris Ivory, Saints
Is Pierre Thomas ever going to return to the Saints backfield? If he does, will he get his starting job back? Here are my predictions: “Not this week” and “Likely, but there’s no guarantee.” On Sunday, Ivory torched the Seahawks for 99 yards and a touchdown on the ground, and with the Saints having a Thursday matchup on the road against Dallas, don’t expect Thomas back in the lineup just yet. While Ivory can hardly be considered an all-around threat at running back (he isn’t a good blocker and he has just one reception), all the Saints need from the position at the moment is some decent production, and he’s been supplying that.
Fred Jackson, Bills
The big man from little Coe College is Moving Up two weeks in a row. Last week it was because of an injury to C.J. Spiller and Jackson’s strong performance against the Lions. This week it’s because of his big game against the Bengals, where he had 116 yards and two touchdowns on the ground against a reasonably solid Cincinnati run defense. Week 12 doesn’t look pretty against the Steelers, but of the Bills other remaining games, only the Vikings looks like a questionable matchup for Jackson.
Maurice Morris, Lions
Watching Jahvid Best have his worst day as a pro this week against Dallas, it seems the rookie first-round pick’s toe injury is getting worse, not better. Best totaled just 15 yards on seven touches while splitting time with Maurice Morris and Aaron Brown. With Kevin Smith on injured reserve, Morris is next in line should the Lions decide to hold Best out due to the short week. Expect Detroit to finally sit Best, with Morris stepping in against a New England run defense that has been up and down in 2010.
Chris Wells, Cardinals
Only for the truly desperate. Wells got about 40 percent of the work this week and looks to finally be healthy, at least for now. The next two weeks don’t look promising with the 49ers and the Rams coming up, but Weeks 14 through 16 look like dynamite. On tap for the fantasy playoffs are the Broncos (the 29th-ranked run defense), Panthers (22nd), and Cowboys (20th).
Moving Down
Ahmad Bradshaw, Giants
There were rumblings the Giants wanted to reduce Bradshaw’s touches to lessen the amount of wear and tear on him in his first year as the starter. That reduction happened in Week 11, but it wasn’t to keep him fresh. After Bradshaw lost his fifth fumble of the season this week (he has fumbled six times), the Giants nailed him to the bench, and he ended up with just 13 touches—his fewest of the year. While he is expected to retain his starting role, look for Brandon Jacobs to see more use, at Bradshaw’s expense, in the coming weeks.
Pierre Thomas, Saints
As pondered above, will Thomas ever return from the ankle injury that has sidelined him for most of the season?
Jonathan Stewart, Panthers
The concussion Stewart suffered in Week 9 may keep him out again this week, but there are no guarantees he will get his job back even if he returns. Stewart’s status in Carolina has taken a huge hit this season due to his poor play and his inability to stay healthy, and the Panthers may use the rest of the season to evaluate Goodson and Tyrell Sutton. If those two pan out, that will likely pave the way for the Panthers to trade Stewart in the offseason.
Clinton Portis, Redskins
Looks like one-and-done for Portis. The Redskins are expected to place him on injured reserve after he reinjured his groin in his return this week, after having missed five games. Washington needs more production from the running back position, and Portis looks finished. My guess is that he’s played his last game in Washington—and possibly in his career, since he doesn’t seem like a player who will accept a backup role.
WIDE RECEIVERS
Moving Up
Blair White, Colts
The news regarding Austin Collie’s removal from this week’s game against the Patriots is that he was taken out for “precautionary reasons”. If you buy that, I’ve got a used car or two to sell you. It defies logic that an organization with a solid history of taking care of its players would send Collie out onto the field a week after he almost certainly sustained his second concussion of the season. That means White will take over as the team’s slot receiver; and he has had decent production when given the opportunity during his rookie season. He had his best game of the season this week against the Patriots, stepping in to catch five of his seven targets for 42 yards and a pair of touchdowns.
Santonio Holmes, Jets
It took a number of games for Holmes to get in sync with quarterback Mark Sanchez, but the duo have been one of the hottest quarterback–wide receiver combinations in the league over the past three weeks. Holmes has had game-winning touchdowns in each of the last two weeks and has hauled in 17 receptions for 316 yards and three touchdowns in his last three games. He has clearly emerged as Sanchez’s go-to guy at wide receiver and rates as a low-end WR1 or high-end WR2 over the balance of the season.
Nate Burleson, Lions
Burleson opened the season with a pair of bad games and suffered an injury that set him back, but since returning to the lineup, he has fulfilled his role in strong fashion. Over the past six weeks, he has hit double-digit points four times and has four touchdowns over that stretch. He has really come on over his last three games, snagging 18 passes for 257 yards and a pair of scores with a pair of 100-yard games, as well. That’s solid WR3 production, and he can likely be had for little in a trade and may even be on the waiver wire in shallow leagues.
Sidney Rice, Vikings
Rice wasn’t wildly productive in his first game of the season, catching just three passes for 56 yards and failing to find the end zone. The encouraging news is that he played in over 80 percent of the team’s offensive snaps, was targeted a hefty 10 times, and looked healthy. With a game under his belt and the Redskins 28th-ranked pass defense on tap this week, Rice is starter-worthy at just the right time of the season for his fantasy owners.
Moving Down
Pierre Garcon, Colts
More of the same from Garcon this week as he seems destined not to fulfill his immense potential in his third season in Indianapolis. Garcon is like bad pizza: you eat it because it’s there and because there’s really no such thing as bad pizza, but you don’t necessarily enjoy it. This week, Garcon caught five passes for 62 yards and no touchdowns. Here’s his season in a nutshell: one good game with 103 yards and his only touchdown of the year, four not-so-good games with 43 yards or less, and three ho-hum games with between 57 and 78 receiving yards.
Randy Moss and Nate Washington, Titans
Rusty Smith is their quarterback. Enough said.
Percy Harvin, Vikings
With Sidney Rice back in the lineup for his first game of the year, Harvin had just five targets, his lowest number since Week 1 when he was also thrown to just five times.
TIGHT ENDS
Moving Up
Joel Dreessen, Texans
Dreessen topped 100 receiving yards for the first time in his five-year career this week, with 106 yards and a touchdown on four receptions. With Owen Daniels struggling to recover from the torn ACL he suffered midway through the 2009 season (and now hobbled by a hamstring injury), Dreessen has played reasonably well when given an opportunity. Daniels is clearly the more talented of the two, but his future with the team is uncertain and his production is way off from last year. Dreessen may just finish the season as Houston’s starting tight end.
Michael Hoomanawanui, Rams
Hoomanawanui was generating quite a buzz with his play in the preseason, but he suffered an ankle injury during the Rams’ opening game and has been hobbled by back and rib injuries throughout his rookie season. This week, he put together his best game of the year, catching four of six targets for 46 yards and a touchdown. He would have had another score late in the game on a shovel pass, but it was picked off when he fell over the his own left guard. Hoomanawanui is a talented young tight end playing on a Rams team on the upswing with a solid stud-in-the-making at quarterback. Dynasty leaguers should take note.
Jimmy Graham, Saints
Another rookie tight end that is starting to produce is Graham. The team’s third-round pick had five receptions for 72 yards this week, bringing his total over the last two games to eight receptions for 121 yards and a score. There is a strong likelihood Jeremy Shockey won’t be back next year, and if that happens, Graham will move into the starting lineup for the Saints’ high-powered offense.
Moving Down
Tony Gonzalez, Falcons
Gonzalez continued his string of uninspired performances this week, notching just 46 receiving yards and losing a touchdown to Justin Peelle. That’s what it’s come down to, folks. Gonzalez now has just two games of more than 46 receiving yards, which makes him useful only when he scores—and that’s only happened in two matchups this year.
By: Dave Stringer — November 19, 2010 @ 6:51 pm
1. The Giants offense has enjoyed a very productive campaign in 2010, ranking second in total offense, fifth in rushing offense, and sixth in passing offense. However, there are storm clouds on the horizon as the team’s offense has taken a major hit in the injury department in recent weeks. With wide receiver Steve Smith out another week (and likely longer) with a torn pectoral muscle and with Ramses Barden being placed on injured reserve on Tuesday, the team was forced to re-sign Derek Hagan. Hagan will likely be the team’s third receiver until Smith returns. In addition to those injuries, tight end Kevin Boss is having problems with his back, and the team may be down to their third-string left tackle for this week’s game against the Eagles. David Diehl is out with hip and hamstring injuries, and backup Shawn Andrews is dealing with a bad back. That may force untested second-year player William Beatty into the starting lineup in a crucial matchup against stud Eagles defensive end Trent Cole. Center Shaun O’Hara has missed the past two games with a foot injury, which has forced left guard Rich Seubert to slide over to center and has pushed unheralded Adam Koets to left guard. However, Koets was put on injured reserve this week with a torn ACL, leaving veteran journeyman Kevin Boothe to sub in this week. Add it all up and the injury situation on the offensive side of the ball for the Giants seems all but certain to limit the unit’s effectiveness for at least the next couple games.
2. The Redskins have been inconsistent on offense, and one of the main reasons for that has been their inability to sustain drives. They were horrendous converting third downs Monday night against the Eagles, failing to move the chains on any of their ten third-down attempts. They rank last in the league—by a wide margin—in third-down conversions. Look for head coach Mike Shanahan to target a big wide receiver either in free agency or through the draft. While former Arena League player Anthony Armstrong has enjoyed unexpected production starting opposite Santana Moss, it is unlikely the Redskins will enter 2011 relying on him in the starting lineup.
 Injuries are taking a toll on Manning's numbers. 3. There were plenty of quarterbacks who had solid performances in Week 10, but the Colts’ Peyton Manning wasn’t one of them. He went a mediocre 20 of 36 for 185 yards and no touchdowns against the Bengals. That marked his worst full-game performance since Week 13 of the 2008 season. With his receivers dropping like flies and running back Joseph Addai still not in the lineup, it appears that Manning’s production is finally taking a hit due to the Colts’ depleted offensive unit.
4. Sticking with the Colts, the team’s two biggest question marks on offense entering the season were at guard. Jamey Richards and Mike Pollak, a pair of 2008 draft picks, won their respective battles to man the left and right guard spots on opening day, but both have been benched in recent weeks in favor of undrafted rookie free agents. Kyle Devan took over for Richards, and Jeff Linkenbach replaced Pollak this week. With the Colts also giving up on former second-round pick Tony Ugoh, drafted in 2007 to be the team’s fixture at left tackle, Indianapolis has done a very poor job of drafting along the offensive line in recent seasons.
5. Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan is enjoying a solid season and is on his way to posting career bests in passing yards and touchdown passes. Although his strong season has vaulted him into fantasy starter status as a top ten quarterback, he remains a much stronger play at home than in road games. He is averaging a very solid 23 points per game in home games, but that drops to a mediocre 17.5 in road matchups.
6. A running back to keep your eye on during the balance of the season is Packers’ rookie sixth- round pick James Starks. Starks was expected to compete with Brandon Jackson for the backup spot behind Ryan Grant, but he suffered a hamstring injury that kept him out of training camp and resulted in his being placed on the PUP list. Green Bay activated Starks last week and head coach Mike McCarthy commented this week that he looked “dang good” in practice. Jackson has been a steady performer but he hasn’t generated many big plays, and he has just two games this year of over 100 total yards. Neither John Kuhn nor Dmitri Nance have proven worthy of a bigger role in the Packers offense, so Starks figures to get a look at some point in the coming weeks.
7. Bills rookie running back C.J. Spiller hasn’t enjoyed much success on the field this year, despite being taken with the ninth overall pick in the draft. Things have gone from bad to worse over the past week. Against the Lions, during the Bills’ first win of the season, Spiller suffered a hamstring injury that will cause him to miss at least one game and possibly more. He followed that up by using a derogatory term toward gays on his Twitter account, which he quickly apologized for. Just one more example of a young player falling into the trap of using social media to increase his exposure when he should be focusing on getting better on the field.
8. And that brings us to Bucs wide receiver Mike Williams. An owner in one of my leagues commented recently that it would be no surprise if Williams fell off the wagon at any time. How prescient then to read that Williams was arrested on suspicion of DUI this week. Prior to the draft, Williams was often described as a player having first round ability but lacking the mental capacity to succeed in the league. Sure enough, he has proven both comments correct during his rookie season, as he is on pace to finish with over 1,100 receiving yards and nine touchdowns but is now facing the possibility of DUI charges. Monitor this situation and use Williams accordingly.
9. And that brings us to 49ers left tackle Joe Staley. Bringing back memories of former Rams defensive end Jack Youngblood playing an entire second half of a playoff game with a broken leg, Staley left this week’s game against the Rams with a leg injury, only to return to finish the last half of the fourth quarter in a game the 49ers came from behind to win. This week, the 49ers announced that Staley had suffered a broken leg and will be out four to six weeks. I’m not sure which is more amazing: Staley playing with a broken leg, or the 49ers letting him play with a broken leg.
10. Chiefs head coach Todd Haley created a minor furor this week by refusing to shake the hand of head coach Josh McDaniels after the Broncos soundly defeated the Chiefs 49-29 in Denver. While Haley has refused to divulge the reasons for not shaking McDaniels’ hand, it seems clear that he felt the Broncos ran up the score on offense. The tradition of NFL coaches shaking hands after a hard-fought contest seems out of place anyway. However, going back to the final game of the 2009 season, Haley’s Chiefs ran up the score on the Broncos in Denver, winning 44-24, and that makes his actions more than a little hypocritical. He is a known hothead, and it likely came as a surprise to no one in the Cardinals organization that the emotional Haley let his emotions get the better of him after a second consecutive loss to a divisional opponent.
11. With Chad Pennington on injured reserve and Chad Henne expected to miss several weeks with a knee injury, former Chief Tyler Thigpen may finish the season as the Dolphins’ starting quarterback. Henne has failed to progress this year, and Miami may be more interested in using the balance of the season to evaluate Thigpen. He was a bit of a dud this week against the Bears, missing several throws on his way to a 187-yard, one-interception performance against a solid Chicago defense in a game in which Brandon Marshall left just prior to half time. It’s worth noting that Thigpen struggled mightily when he first started for the Chiefs, before he rebounded to finish the season with a string of solid performances. Over his last ten starts in 2008, with a Chiefs offensive unit that was clearly lacking talent, Thigpen averaged 22.0 fantasy points per game. He is worth a look if you’re desperate for a backup.
12. Dolphins running back Ronnie Brown is likely to be an unrestricted free agent after the season, but he has done little in 2010 to warrant a new contract from Miami—or any other team. With just 454 rushing yards this season, he is on pace to have his worst full season as a pro. He has looked tentative hitting the hole, and his shifty style of running seems ill-fitted to the team’s current offensive line, which features larger, less athletic players. His current production combined with a broken leg and torn ACL in his past means that the Dolphins are unlikely to offer him a lucrative contract in the offseason, which also means he will likely have a new team in 2011.
13. Sticking with the Dolphins, their 39 rushing yards this week against the Bears was their lowest total since Tony Sparano took over as the team’s head coach. Don’t be surprised if Lex Hilliard gets a few carries in the coming weeks.
14. The Texans’ woes on defense have been well documented, particularly their inability to stop the pass, where they rank last in the league. They have given up 24 or more points in every game this season, and you have to go back to their Week 15 matchup last season against the Rams, who had the fourth-worst offense in the league in 2009, to find a game in which they gave up fewer than 24 points.
15. As it turns out, the controversy over the contract Donovan McNabb signed with the Redskins is little more than a tempest in a teapot. Inside the numbers, the contract gives Washington the option of jettisoning McNabb after this year, having paid out just $3.75 million as part of the contract extension. McNabb also gets a healthy salary in 2011, and the big money kicks in after that. In a nutshell, the Redskins gets a happy, motivated quarterback for the stretch run to the playoffs for under $4 million, with the option to lock him up for next season—and in each subsequent year—if he performs well. Seems like a good business decision to me. And that’s not something we’ve always been able to say about the Redskins in recent years.
« Newer Posts — Older Posts »
| |
|
Powered by
WordPress |
|
|
