FFT's Blog O' Fantasy Football

Welcome to the Tuesday Morning Buzz! Week 8 was a week of affirmations. Most of the teams and players that we expected to do well, did. And many of the questions about some players and teams on the bubble were answered. Let’s get right into it:

Buccaneers–Vikings
The Bucs once again looked fantastic in a blowout victory, with Josh Freeman and Doug Martin leading the way. Freeman’s three touchdowns and 262 yards made for a great fantasy day, but it was Martin that truly sold me on this Buccaneers offense. Perhaps I was too hard on him early on. I really believe his running ability allows the passing offense to click. It appears that the Tampa Bay rushing game is for real.

For the Vikings, Ponder improved from his epic, eight-completion victory last week, but once again it was ADP who attained the lion’s share of the fantasy points. However, the draft position value award has to go to Percy Harvin, who was undrafted in some leagues. Even one 17-point game will get a guy picked up from the waiver wire, and Harvin accomplished just that, in addition to his moderate success week in and week out.

The sophomore slump continues.

Panthers–Bears
Poor Cam Newton. The Preacher’s son is getting lambasted in the media for his turnover rate. Maybe he and Michael Vick should become better friends! Sadly, I would find another fantasy QB if Newton is your starter this year. However, next year he will be a great value pick. We had a healthy discussion in the comments section last week regarding Steve Smith’s career dominance of the Chicago Bears. That logic proved to be sound, and hopefully he can carry some of that momentum into future games as the rest of his offense is stalling.

For my preseason darling Bears, it was a great day for Matt Forte and Brandon Marshall but a horrific day for Jay Cutler. Not only was his yardage total unacceptable for fantasy (186 yards), but he threw a pick that negated most of those yards. Despite his feast-or-famine nature, I would still gladly release Newton for Cutler regardless of matchup. Cutler’s team is winning and spirits are high in Chicago; Newton’s team is losing and the criticism is only going to get worse.

Chargers–Browns
The Chargers, in classic San Diego Charger fashion, are falling apart. This must be the final season for Norv Turner and A.J. Smith, right? How long will the organization and the fans put up with a team that can’t find it within themselves to play well for a full season? This team is in definite need of a culture shock, and until that happens they are going to be virtually useless on the field and in fantasy. My condolences to Chargers owners (hang in there—they may flip the switch when the win-loss record gets out of hand).

Also, what another success for the city of Cleveland! I won’t say the Browns played well, but Cleveland once again worked its deadly black magic on the visitor. Like an ugly, soggy, unapologetic Venus flytrap, they drew in the energetic Chargers and sapped their life from them until they were no more. I don’t have the numbers, but I would wager that Cleveland owns the record for most games with less than 21 total points scored.

Seahawks–Lions
The Seahawks couldn’t have asked for a better 55 minutes of football. Russell Wilson was accurate and Marshawn Lynch hit 105 yards on 12 carries. They were up with five minutes remaining, and their clamp-down defense had to hold a struggling Lions offense to close out the game. But they just couldn’t pull it off. Also of note, 13 of Wilson’s 25 completions went to Golden Tate and Sidney Rice for 64 and 55 yards, respectively. These wideouts will be promising low-cost options in next year’s draft.

For the Lions, it was the same old same old on offense. Running backs fought tooth and nail (unsuccessfully) for 50 yards, and the passing offense flourished on 49 attempts. If you’re hurting for WRs, though I can’t imagine that you would be, Ryan Broyles‘ arrow is definitely pointing up. Watch for his role to steadily expand in the Lions offense.

Jaguars–Packers
The most reassuring thing about the Jaguars lackluster showing in Green Bay was Rashad Jennings‘ 17 rush attempts. Even though the result was only 59 yards, those yards will eventually be augmented by touchdowns. For the passing options, the Jaguars continued to look mediocre at best. I’m not buying Cecil Shorts or Justin Blackmon with Gabbert at quarterback this season, but I am buying the six receptions Rashad Jennings had in addition to his rushing. If you’re playing in a dynasty league, you should consider holding onto Jennings, as MJD may find himself in a new home next year.

For the Packers, it was a rough day for Aaron Rodgers but a structurally sound day for the receiving core. I thought this might finally be the week that James Jones and Randall Cobb both have a great fantasy day, with Nelson and Jennings out, and while they scored similar points, neither was really worthwhile among this year’s bevy of WRs. Jermichael Finley was still unable to do much with both of the Packers top pass catchers out and is essentially droppable at this point.

Dolphins–Jets
Yikes! It was a bad day for Miami quarterbacks. Tannehill went down early with an injury (shown to be not too serious via MRI) and Matt Moore, last year’s starter, proved to be quite a downgrade. With Moore at quarterback, all of your Dolphins are suddenly virtually worthless in fantasy. However, Bush and Hartline may be able to produce next week against a weak Indy Defense.

Yikes! It was a bad day for New York Jets quarterbacks! Mark Sanchez is not the worst problem on this team by far, but he is going to take all of the blame. And with a fan favorite like Tebow waiting in the wings, it is only a matter of time before Sanchez takes the fall for the ineptitude of the players on this roster. However, if Tebow does start, Keller and Greene may actually see an uptick due to the absolute failure of the intermediate and deep passing game.

Falcons–Eagles
What is left to say about these Falcons? A few players stand out on paper, such as Jacquizz Rodgers, D.J. Davis and Jason Snelling, but when you see that the majority of their scoring came from single plays on just a few touches, all of a sudden their performance is less impressive. These Falcons get great production from their stars, and their stars are the only players you want on your fantasy team.

For the Eagles, see the Chargers comments above. These Eagles are stuck in a rut and nothing less than a complete restructure will dig them out. This isn’t a statement against Andy Reid, similar to Jeff Fisher’s exit from Tennessee; it’s simply a statement of fact. Until something brings these players together under a new banner, no one will be a guarantee…And fantasy is all about looking for guarantees.

Redskins–Steelers
I don’t think there are any fantasy owners bailing on RGIII after two less-than-perfect performances, but if you find one, take advantage. I trust that Griffin will be back in swing next week versus the woeful Carolina defense. The Steelers defense is as complex and difficult to play as they come, and no rookie quarterback should be expected to excel against them. Keep starting RGIII and Alfred Morris, and if you feel like taking a shot, think about Santana Moss.

For the Steelers, this was an example of a quarterback having a field day using every resource in his offense. Big Ben completed passes to nine different receivers, and all three of his touchdowns went to infrequent targets. That being said, this Steelers passing offense looks better each week, and I would be very optimistic about the falling Antonio Brown next week against a possibly gassed Giants D.

Patkowskis–Rams
Unfortunately, blowout games like this say very little about the winner or the loser. There are all sorts of Patriots with gaudy numbers, and Chris Givens is one 50-yard touchdown from joining every single other St. Louis Ram in fantasy nonexistence. If there is any info to be gleaned, it is that Daryl Richardson and Steven Jackson both carried the ball seven times on Sunday. Is it finally time for Richardson to break into the starting workload and fantasy relevance?

Colts–Titans
Andrew Luck, who quietly has been more impressive than Robert Griffin III in my opinion, had a great day on 38 passes, despite a 1:1 TD-to-INT ratio. There is possibly some fantasy gold on this team, as Donald Brown, Dwayne Allen, Donnie Avery, and T.Y. Hilton all made a splash on Sunday. Brown should definitely be picked up from the waiver wire if someone in your league dropped him out of necessity.

P.S. If you missed Vick Ballard’s sweet barrel-roll touchdown, Google it.

The Titans played on the arm of Matt Hasselbeck and the legs of Chris Johnson on Sunday, and they looked pretty good doing it. They’re no offensive or defensive juggernaut, but the defense kept them in the game and the offense hung in there against one of the best young arms in football. Credit CJ2K’s 99-yard rushing performance and Kendall Wright’s continuation of his excellent rookie campaign. If Wright is still floating around in your league, he is a must-have for the rest of the season.

Raiders–Chiefs
The Raiders were a nice, safe play this week in most situations. Palmer threw enough touchdowns to make up for a subpar yardage total and an interception, Darren McFadden had high yardage but no score, Denarius Moore and Darrius Heyward-Bey performed up to snuff, Sea Bass kicked field goals with all the force and style of the General Lee, and the Raiders D nearly held Kansas City to a third week of no touchdowns. Overall, each Raider you started gave you exactly what was expected.

For the Chiefs, however, no one should have seen fantasy light-of-day unless you were so hurt in your flex position that you needed to start Dexter McCluster. There isn’t much else to say about these Chiefs. Avoid them like the plague until something changes at quarterback—which is a likely prospect for next season.

Giants–Cowboys
The result for the Giants was familiar, but the stat line was bizarre. Eli Manning didn’t touch 200 yards or complete a touchdown pass, Reuben Randle was the leading receiver, and Ahmad Bradshaw couldn’t outscore Andre Brown in fantasy points despite rushing for 19 more carries. However, Lawrence Tynes and the Giants D performed admirably and proved why they are worth their spots on your team, regardless of matchup.

Hey, remember when the Cowboys beat the Giants in the opening game of the season, and how this was finally going to be the Cowboys year, and how Eli and the Giants were going to finish third in the division behind the Cowboys and the Eagles? Here is the issue with every Cowboys team over the past 15 years: No discipline. The Cowboys are always in competition with the Raiders for most penalties on the season, and they are always in competition with no one for sloppiest route running and least inspiring play downfield. Until the Cowboys have a GM not named Jerry Jones, they will never be week-in, week-out starters for your fantasy team, and they will never compete for 16 games in a row.

Saints–Broncos
Wise Saints fans knew before the previous season ended, before the bounty scandal, before the coaching suspensions, that this season would be for naught. How so, you say? Because the Super Bowl is in New Orleans this year. Having the Super Bowl in your home town is a death knell for your football team, and that is far less arguable than the more popular, “Madden Curse.” Thankfully, those rules don’t apply to fantasy. Though this week was somewhat lackluster for the Saints, there are a heap of them that can get you into your fantasy playoffs—despite the fact that they will not make their own playoffs. Keep starting all of your Saints.

Football Demigod Peyton Manning has already set the Broncos record for most consecutive 300-yard games (5) and has tied his own record with the same performance. For that specific reason, above all others, look for Denver to head to Cincinnati and push for a great fantasy day for the receiving corps. Eric Decker and Demaryius Thomas should definitely be starters next week, and strong consideration should be given to Brandon Stokley as well.

49ers–Cardinals
The 49ers attained the first really great overly complicated, hyper-specific record of the season:
Alex Smith set the NFL record for most passes thrown with only one incompletion: 18 of 19. What is more impressive to me than his unsightly accuracy is that on his 18 throws he managed 232 yards and three touchdowns with no interceptions. That is phenomenal for Alex Smith and was good for sixth best this week among fantasy performances by QBs in standard scoring.

Amazingly, this same pitiful Arizona team that took the field on Monday Night started the season as 4-0. Now they are at 4-4 with no light at the end of the tunnel. The defense didn’t look great against a game-management style offense, but truly, the lack of rushing is their biggest Achilles’ heel. There were eight total rushes by Cardinals running backs in this game, and none of them were particularly astounding. As long as John Skelton is passing 52 times per game, this team will not win, and no Cardinals deserve your roster spots until that changes.

And that’s it! Week 8 is in the books and so is the first half of a season of epic proportions. As the races for the playoffs, MVP, and various in-season records heat up, we should see fantasy explosions all over the board in the second half. We luck out in Week 9, as very few startable fantasy players are on bye (Rams, Pats, Jets, 49ers), but if you should need assistance, look to your Broncos, Bears, Panthers, Redskins, Texans (blowout material—start Ben Tate!), and Saints. Also, please leave questions and comments in the section below or on Twitter, and I will respond on Wednesday. Have a great week!

Welcome to Week 7 of the Tuesday Morning Buzz! This week was an exciting display of offensive and defensive prowess across the league which resulted in many inflated scores across the board. Let’s get right into it:

Seahawks–49ers
What is the opposite of a shootout? 13-6 felt more like 9-6 on Thursday. For fantasy, however, the Thursday night game should have had little do with your perception, and if you looked at fantasy first, you’d probably guess a higher score. Frank Gore, Marshawn Lynch, and the kickers are the prime fantasy players from their respective teams, and each performed up to snuff. All in all, there was little to glean here.

Titans–Bills
Chris Johnson owners rejoice! Rejoice that CJ2K was finally able to break out against one of the worst defenses in history. Rejoice because you can now off-load him to a believer. A performance like that says a lot about a player. However, it is indicative of potential fantasy hemlock if it requires a matchup against a defense whose stench will linger for ages. If you need a QB, find the owner who drafted RGIII, see who he or she drafted to be their starter, and offer them CJ2K for that QB.

For the Bills, Ryan Fitzpatrick continued to be a fine stand-In QB and finished fifth overall in standard scoring this week. Spiller and Jackson are finally seeing even carries (Yay for Spiller! Boo for Jackson!), but Jackson’s dominance in the pass-catching aspect of the game was not to be ignored (Yay for Jackson! Boo for Spiller!). However, it was Steve Johnson who was happiest after the game on Sunday, as he ended a three-week skid by putting up 71 yards and a score. With the Bills down and throwing often, Johnson should be a top-tier receiver every week.

You Have to Be Very Rich or Very Poor to Live Without a Trade
There has been much talk in this column lately about trading. No matter if it is an under-performing player who I think will surge, or an over-performing player who I think will fall, trading is an essential part of my fantasy stratagem—and I think it should be part of yours, as well. Rare is the draft that works out perfectly, so that all of your players should remain on the roster. In fact, you’re much better off drafting your best and then either trading or hitting the waiver wire on a near-weekly basis.

Especially during the byes, there are many players who will be great for one week, and you can exploit that for a fantasy victory. For instance, Arian Foster is on bye next week, so Jonathan Dwyer facing a Redskins defense in Pittsburgh is a great option. Also, as stated above, Chris Johnson is having a terrible year as a part of a terrible team, but he had a great week last week, and he has a reputation for being an excellent running back. Therefore, he has the potential to earn you a tremendous payout for what I’m predicting will be a season of little value. Be a frequent trader and be active with the waiver wire, my friends, and enjoy the success that comes with it.

Cowboys–Panthers
The Cowboys maintained their .500 record on the leg of Dan Bailey on Sunday. For Fantasy, no one on the Cowboys was highly effective, as Miles Austin (97 yards and a touchdown) lost a fumble to tarnish an otherwise great showing.

As for the now 1-5 Panthers (a popular pick to win their division, mind you), it was more of the same. The whole team was meh-worthy, and that can be attributed directly to Cam Newton’s sophomore slump. It may be time to punt on your Panthers, unfortunately, as they are likely being out-performed by the waiver wire in your league.

Ravens–Texans
Many may argue that this was a matchup of the AFC’s two best teams. As true as that statement may be, only one played like it on Sunday. Justin Tucker opened things up with a field goal in the first quarter, but the Ravens didn’t score again until partway through the third quarter. Since no started-in-fantasy Raven caught or rushed for a touchdown, and Flacco threw two picks to neutralize his only score, all Ravens not named Justin Tucker were essentially useless in fantasy.

As bleak as the Ravens’ effort seemed, the Texans were exuberant after a blowout loss at the hands of Aaron Rodgers’ inflamed ego last week. This week, all of your Texans performed admirably—though watch Andre Johnson, as he was only the third-highest scoring pass catcher on his team. Also, Ben Tate didn’t do nearly as much as one would have hoped in a 30-point victory. Those who had to resort to him as a starter this week were likely disappointed.

Browns–Colts
If I told you one quarterback in this game would complete 61 percent of his passes and throw for two touchdowns while the other would complete 55 percent for only 186 yards and no touchdowns, which would you attribute the stats to? Luck got lucky with two rushing touchdowns to salvage the game and his fantasy day, but keep Weeden in the back of your mind—he may just eventually be of fantasy value. Also, Richardson could only muster eight carries due to his rib injury, so a backup option for your fantasy squad will likely be necessary next week.

Cardinals–Vikings
The stat line for this game seems impossible! Take a look:

How often does a quarterback not named Tim Tebow complete only eight passes for 58 yards, one touchdown, and two interceptions yet still win the game? Such is the might of a single pick six… Of course, the force of Adrian Peterson crashing through the defense doesn’t hurt either.

In typical backfield-by-committee style, LaRod Stephens-Howling got all the love this week. Until some balance in amount of carries is maintained, both Arizona RBs are very risky.

Redskins–Giants
RGIII was once again electric on Sunday, as his 89 rushing yards supplemented an already good passing day. Also, it seems, Shanahan has turned over a new leaf in starting Alfred Morris each week. With said starts, Morris is shattering the totals of other Redskins running backs under the mercurial head coach.

For the Giants, it was great to see Ahmad Bradshaw, Andre Brown, and Martellus Bennett get back into the game plan. Bradshaw and Bennett should be starters; however, Brown is a red herring. I wouldn’t trust him at a starting position on my team unless I were in a very deep league—though he might be worth stashing in case of injury to Bradshaw.

Packers–Rams
Green Bay won their second straight game for the first time this season, thanks in part to the arm of Aaron Rodgers (342 yds, 3 TDs) and the legs of Randall Cobb (89 yds, 2 TDs) and Jordy Nelson (122 yds, 1 TD). Big surprise, am I right? The one question mark left on this offense remains the James Jones/Randall Cobb conundrum. It seems that one or the other will have an offensive explosion each week—but never both, even when they have similar reception totals.

For the Rams, 14 of their 20 points came during a furious fourth-quarter comeback attempt, but it was too little too late. Both the rushing game (93 total yards) and the passing game (no receiver with more than five receptions) lacked star power and underwhelmed, and if Chris Givens hadn’t broken out for 56 yards on a busted coverage, the Rams’ stat line would look even worse. This is an offense to avoid like the plague, as their Calvin Rating is well under 0.5. My condolences to Steven Jackson owners on what is shaping up to be a long season.

Josh Freeman and Drew Brees were the top scoring QBs in Week 7.

Saints–Buccaneers
Drew Brees maintained his statistical dominance on Sunday, completing 72.9 percent of his passes for 377 yards and four touchdowns, enough to keep him within 100 yards of Eli Manning (league leader) and one touchdown of Aaron Rodgers (league leader), neither of whom has had their bye week yet, which Brees has. Since Brees must complete these passes to someone, Marques Colston, Jimmy Graham (when healthy), Darren Sproles, and Garrett Hartley should be started with gusto.

The Buccaneers played the game perfectly but simply weren’t able to hang on. Two early touchdowns put the Saints in a hole, and moderate rushing success against a terribly weak Saints’ D should have been enough to seal the deal. However, a furious 9 minutes in the second quarter led to the Saints’ touchdowns. This kept the Bucs passing game alive to the end, allowing for a massive 420 yards and three touchdowns for Freeman, of which 216 yards and one touchdown went to the hyper-talented Vincent Jackson.

Jets–Patkowskis
The Jets looked good on Sunday, forcing the epically-good-at-home Pats to come from behind and win in overtime. Sanchez’s 328 yards were impressive, but it was Jeremy Kerley and Dustin Keller who were truly shocking. Kerley’s 120 yards on seven receptions was tops, but Keller’s 93 yards touchdown makes him an even greater waiver wire option, as TE is more shallow than WR this year. Both should occupy your bench, however, awaiting consistency from this Jets offense.

For the Pats, it was business as usual. Brady was great, and the Gronk was able to haul in two touchdowns on six receptions for 72 yards. Stevan Ridley and Shane Vereen combined for 109 yards on 25 rushes—a nice day for a single running back—though 17 of those 25 carries went to Ridley. If you’re struggling, Vereen may be a good bye-week fill-in, or at least worth sitting on your bench in case of injury to Ridley.

Jaguars–Raiders
The biggest news of this game is the loss of Maurice Jones-Drew. While the exact nature of his injury is unclear, if there is soft tissue damage, you can blame is squarely on his holdout. It will never be clear if the injury would’ve happened anyway, but MJD joins a long list of badly injured players in their holdout years. Let this be a lesson: Don’t draft a RB or WR in a holdout year! Also, pick up Rashad Jennings at any cost from the waiver wire.

Since Run-DMC had a pitiful showing of 19 rushes for 53 yards, it was up to Carson Palmer (1 pass TD, 1 rush TD) and Darrius Heyward-Bey (4 rec, 85 yds) to save the day for the Raiders. Of course, none of this would have been possible without the leg of the greatest white trash kicker the NFL has even seen in Sebastian Janikowski. I have heard tell that an odor of Pabst Blue Ribbon can be smelled as far as 10 years downfield after a Sea Bass 60-yarder.

Steelers–Bengals
In a night thick with Jerome Bettis references, Jonathan Dwyer rushed for 122 yards on 17 carries and looked every bit the future lead back of the Pittsburgh Steelers. Right now, he’s running well and all is grand in the Steel City. However, when Mendenhall and Redman return, it may be a three-back committee, and that could wind up being fruitless for all three backs. Until then, however, Dwyer is your man, and he should be picked up with the same force as Rashad Jennings.

For the Bengals, it was a disappointing second half that really could’ve been a lot worse. Despite the 17 points on the board, Andy Dalton had only 105 yards for one touchdown with one interception. Luckily for A.J. Green, his single catch of the night was for a touchdown, or he would’ve ended the day with a bizarre goose egg. It was simply an off night for the Bengals against a tough Steelers team. Look for Dalton, Green-Ellis, Green, and Jermaine Gresham to each perform well in the future, especially with a bye this week to recover.

Lions–Bears
The Lions looked tired and dysfunctional on Monday night. Heck, Calvin Johnson didn’t secure his first catch until the third quarter! If your No. 1 skill position player doesn’t have a touch until the third quarter, you don’t have a chance. I wouldn’t panic too much regarding these Lions; they’re still a great offense. But I wouldn’t be too excited about their matchup versus that Seattle defense next week. You obviously can’t sit Calvin Johnson, but I’d consider benching anyone else on this team next week.

For the Bears, while Cutler’s stats are underwhelming (150 yds, 1 TD), Brandon Marshall looked dominant, and Matt Forte came in just a hair short of 100 yards. It was an “old school AFC North matchup,” in that neither offense was particularly sharp, and it was simply a matter of who could manufacture the most points in a mud fight. Look for these Bears to be running on high octane next week at home against the not-so-tough Carolina defense.

$#^% Chris Collinsworth Says
This week, CC was strangely quiet, so his role will be played by Jon Gruden, who simply stated the truest factor about Monday night’s game:

“You shut out the Lions offense on Monday Night Football and that’s saying something. It’s a lot of talent on that Detroit offense.”

You can say what you want about the Bears not truly shutting out the Lions, but Detroit got a pity score with less than a minute remaining in the fourth quarter. For 59 minutes, this Bears defense disallowed a fantastic offensive machine even a field goal. With the offense rolling and the defense playing league-best, is this the most complete Bears team ever?

And that’s it! Week 7 has come to a close and Week 8 is already just around the corner. We’re back to four teams on bye for Week 8 (Buffalo, Cincinnati, Baltimore, Houston), so owners should seek fantasy solace in the arms of Saints, Broncos, Bears, Colts, and Titans. Please ask your questions below or tweet me and I’ll reply by Wednesday.