|
Fantasy Football Strategy, Advice, and Commentary |
|
 By: Dave Stringer — October 27, 2010 @ 2:10 am
QUARTERBACKS
Moving Up
Ryan Fitzpatrick, Bills
Here are Fitzpatrick’s fantasy points in his last four games: 22, 21, 23, 36. Better yet, the 36 game was a road game against the Ravens in which Fitzpatrick threw for 374 yards and four touchdowns. Another added bonus with Fitzpatrick is that he can scramble and has chipped in 116 rushing yards. That’s almost three fantasy points per game, which is nice gravy if you are relying on a quarterback who is starting in a questionable offense.
Jon Kitna, Cowboys
Initial indications are that Tony Romo is out at least 6-8 weeks with a broken clavicle and that means Kitna will step under center for the Cowboys. While this warrants a downgrade for all of the Cowboys receivers, it moves Kitna into the “Moving Up” category since he was persona non grata before the Romo injury. No, he’s not going to replace Romo’s production. No, he’s probably not going to be starter worthy, certainly not for his first couple of games. However, he does have a pile of impressive weapons at his disposal and he does have a pair of 4,000 yard passing seasons under his belt – the last one in 2007. He’s worth grabbing as a fantasy backup and, who knows, maybe you hit the jackpot.
Moving Down
Jay Cutler, Bears
One game, Cutler can’t avoid the rush and his stats suffer; the next game, he avoids the rush and throws a bunch of picks. On a side note, it was humorous to read that he planned to go after DeAngelo Hall again—and even funnier to see Hall pick him off four times. Proof that Cutler’s bravado is a little bigger than his brain at times. Anyway, he has one touchdown pass in his last three games or, if you’re a cup-half-full guy, two in his last four. That’s not cutting it.
RUNNING BACKS
Moving Up
 Believe it! Darren McFadden, Raiders
“Just the numbers, baby, just the numbers. Give me the deep ball on the play action, dammit, Tom!” There’s my ode to Al Davis. Here are McFadden’s numbers from his monster fantasy performance this week against the Broncos: 16 carries for 165 yards and three touchdowns, plus two receptions for 31 yards. That’s all the more impressive considering it was his first game back since suffering a knee injury in Week 4. Despite missing two games, McFadden is currently the fourth-ranked running back in total fantasy points and the top-ranked running back in points per game. It’s time to believe.
Brandon Jackson, Packers
If you read my column like you’re supposed to (it’s like the vitamins your mother told you to take—you may not like it but you have to do it), you know I’m not big on Jackson. Not big, not fast, not very shifty, not a great receiver. Not sure why he’s the lead back on the Packers offense. Now that that’s out of the way, it’s time to point out he’s coming off his finest game of the season. Against the Vikings he had 58 yards and a touchdown on 13 carries as well as three receptions for 46 yards. That gives him double-digit fantasy points in two of the last three weeks, which makes him a mid-tier RB2 at the moment.
LeGarrette Blount, Bucs
Blount had a nice game against the Rams this week, bowling over their defenders on his way to an 11-carry, 72-yard performance. With Cadillac Williams struggling and on his last legs, Blount will continue to see his workload increase, provided he can improve upon his blitz protection. The team won’t risk the health of franchise quarterback Josh Freeman, so Blount will continue to sit on passing downs until he picks up the team’s protection schemes. Nonetheless, while he doesn’t possess outstanding speed, he is clearly a physical back capable of churning out yards between the tackles and bouncing to the outside for extra yardage. Not to mention that he will clearly get the goal line work over the smaller Williams.
Moving Down
Cadillac Williams, Bucs
The Cadillac story is a compelling one. Alas, it appears to be in its final chapter in Tampa Bay. This week, the Bucs coaches followed through on their promise to get LeGarrette Blount more involved, and he performed well, rushing 11 times for 72 yards against the Rams. While the box score indicates that Williams had a solid fantasy performance, it is misleading, as he padded his stats with the game-winning touchdown with less than a minute to play. Blount got a healthy majority of the work on first and second downs with Williams subbing in on obvious passing downs. Williams is clearly the Bucs’ third-down back at this point.
Beanie Wells, Cardinals
I’m dropping my rankings for all Cardinals running backs and wide receivers until I see some decent play from their quarterbacks. Wells can’t do it all by himself, so it doesn’t much matter that Cardinals head coach Ken Whisenhunt has indicated Tim Hightower will start to lose touches due to his fumbling issues.
Ryan Mathews, Chargers
Mathews is clearly a very talented back, but he just isn’t getting enough touches to produce consistently, especially with Mike Tolbert getting the goal-line work. The ball clearly isn’t bouncing Mathews’ way, and it doesn’t help when the Chargers get behind early. This week, trailing the Patriots, head coach Norv Turner turned to Darren Sproles in the passing game, relegating Mathews to the bench for almost the entire second half. End result: 15 yards on eight carries with Tolbert stealing a score.
WIDE RECEIVERS
Moving Up
Kenny Britt, Titans
Granted, I’m not a rocket scientist, but anybody with a modicum of intelligence would say that Britt is clearly Moving Up, courtesy of his gangbuster performance this week. He torched the Eagles for seven receptions, 225 yards, and three touchdowns and is becoming a touchdown machine for the Titans, with seven over his last five games. Britt earned the ire of the Titans coaches by showing up for OTAs seriously out of shape, but he has heeded the lesson to become the team’s top wide receiver and is on the verge of establishing himself as a high-end WR2 for fantasy purposes.
Steve Johnson, Bills
I’ve had him here before, and it’s well past time for fantasy owners to consider making Johnson a regular presence in their starting lineups. He had the best game of his career this week against the Ravens, catching eight passes for 158 yards (both career highs) and a touchdown. He now has touchdowns in four straight games (five in total during that stretch) and has caught over 60 percent of his targets. Johnson’s chemistry with quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick has him sitting at a surprising 15th ranking among wide receivers.
David Gettis and Brandon LaFell, Panthers
Both of the Panthers rookie wide receivers had the best games of their careers this week, as they each lit up a struggling 49ers secondary. Gettis hauled in eight catches for 125 yards and a pair of scores while LaFell had a solid six receptions for 91 yards. With Matt Moore starting at quarterback and Steve Smith getting consistent double teams, the prospects for Gettis and LaFell are on the rise. Consider them worthy bench material at this point, in the hopes one of them establishes himself as the clear second option in Carolina.
Jordan Shipley, Bengals
Shipley had a career day this week against the Falcons, hauling in all six of his targets for 131 yards and his first career touchdown. For the season, he has caught 21 of his 25 targets for 321 yards and a score. With the Bengals struggling to get their running game going and defenses doing a solid job shutting down Chad Ochocinco (though not this week, mind you), look for the Bengals coaches to get Shipley more involved going forward. He is beginning to look like a decent flex play in larger leagues.
Moving Down
Larry Fitzgerald, Cardinals
It’s officially time to give Fitzgerald a serious downgrade. While he is clearly one of the most talented wide receivers in the league, the Cardinals quarterback situation is causing his production to drop to unprecedented levels. Neither Derek Anderson nor Max Hall seems capable of consistently getting the ball to Fitzgerald and, as a result, he is currently the 35th-ranked among receivers who have played at least five games. This week he caught three of his 10 targets for 30 yards, and he is currently on pace to finish with less than 900 receiving yards and six touchdowns. And, no, I’m not even rating him as a solid buy-low guy.
Wes Welker, Patriots
Welker is another talented receiver suffering from issues beyond his control, only it’s clearly not the quarterback in New England causing his production to suffer. In Welker’s case, it’s the Randy Moss trade. In the two games since Moss was dealt to Minnesota, Welker has 11 receptions on 17 targets for 78 yards and no touchdowns. He is seeing more frequent double teams, which are reducing his yards after the catch. In addition, the Patriots are a far less explosive offense without Moss; they are now dinking and dunking their way down the field, and that reduces Welker’s touchdown opportunities. He is currently the 31st-ranked wide receiver and is on pace to finish the season with under 800 receiving yards.
Miles Austin, Roy Williams, and Dez Bryant, Cowboys
It’s a long way down from Tony Romo to Jon Kitna. While Kitna threw for two touchdowns in relief duty against the Giants, it was against a soft defense because New York had a solid lead. Romo is likely out for the year, so Kitna steps in—and he hasn’t played extensively since the fifth game of the 2008 season. At best, it’s going to take him awhile to shake off the rust.
Michael Crabtree, 49ers
More injury problems at quarterback in San Francisco. Alex Smith is likely to miss time with a shoulder injury, an issue he’s had in the past. As mediocre as Smith had been this year, the 49ers had not gone to David Carr—and Carr showed us exactly why during his relief performance against the Panthers, going 5 of 13 for 67 yards and a key interception that cost the 49ers the game. It doesn’t bode well for Crabtree if Smith is out for an extended period.
TIGHT ENDS
Moving Up
Andrew Quarless, Packers
Some teams successfully draft lineman, some running backs, while some aren’t successful at drafting any single position. The Packers apparently know how to draft tight ends. With stud Jermichael Finley on injured reserve, the Packers dialed up rookie fifth-round pick Quarless this week, and he caught two passes for 16 yards and a score. Big deal, you say. Well, he should have had another 30 yards had he not fallen down on his way to making the catch. Plus, he looks like he’s more athletic than Donald Lee, which makes him the more logical candidate to take on a piece of Finley’s receiving role. If you’re desperate at tight end, Quarless is worth a look.
Todd Heap, Ravens
I keep getting asked by a friend what he should do with his tight end position because he wants an upgrade from Heap. Here’s the answer I keep giving him: Nothing. The Ravens offense started the season slowly, but they are averaging 25.8 points per game over the last five games, after starting the season with a pair of 10-point efforts. As for Heap, he is coming off a three-reception, 59-yard, two-touchdown performance and is currently ninth amongst active tight ends in fantasy points per game. Looking at the schedule, the Ravens face a number of bottom feeders over the next several weeks. Their schedule and his performance this week have Heap Moving Up.
Moving Down
Brent Celek, Eagles
A full seven games in, Celek has 21 receptions for 243 yards and a pair of touchdowns. That’s close to what he had during Kevin Kolb’s two starts last year. Worse yet, even with DeSean Jackson out of the lineup, Celek had only five targets this week, catching two passes for eight yards. At this point he is no longer a guaranteed starter, and his owners should be looking around their leagues for an upgrade.
By: Dave Stringer — October 22, 2010 @ 1:58 pm
 Garcon's value is on the rise. 1. Last week I told you that there were three quarterbacks on pace to top Dan Marino’s record for the most passing yards in a single season. One of the three was the Colts’ Peyton Manning, but the odds of him bettering Marino’s record took a major hit this week. Running back Joseph Addai may miss a number of weeks with nerve damage in his shoulder, and Manning will be without two of his top three receivers for a number of weeks, also. Tight end Dallas Clark has a rare type of wrist injury and is out indefinitely, while wide receiver Austin Collie will miss 2-4 weeks after undergoing surgery on his hand. Look for Manning’s numbers to drop slightly over the coming weeks as he adapts to either Jacob Tamme or Brody Eldridge at tight end and Blair White, an undrafted rookie free agent, at wide receiver. Former first round pick Anthony Gonzalez will also be available once his high ankle sprain heals. The player most likely to benefit is wide receiver Pierre Garcon, who should see plenty of targets until the team’s other receivers recover from their injuries.
2. Sticking with Manning, one of the issues with having the league’s premier player on your fantasy roster is that the Colts often have home field advantage locked up by the time the fantasy playoffs roll around .That leaves Manning owners with a tough decision on which of their quarterbacks to play—but there shouldn’t be any such conundrum this season. The AFC South is a tough division this year, with the Colts, Texans, and Titans all tied atop the division with 4-2 records and with Jacksonville a game back at 3-3. If the Colts lose another game or two while waiting for their numerous injury issues to go away, they are very unlikely to have home field locked up before Week 17.
3. Another top-tier quarterback who may see his fantasy production go down over the next couple weeks is Philip Rivers. The Chargers may be without all three of their top receivers this weekend, with Malcolm Floyd likely out and Legedu Naanee and Antonio Gates questionable. It’s a big drop from those three to Patrick Crayton, Buster Davis, and Randy McMichael. Look for Chargers head coach Norv Turner to get Darren Sproles more heavily involved in the passing game until the injury issues pass over. It also might be a great time to target Ryan Mathews as a buy-low candidate. Since returning to the lineup, Mathews hasn’t seen many carries, but that is more a result of the team playing from behind than of his actual performance. Mike Tolbert is still stealing the short-yardage work, but Mathews is clearly a talented player who will break out if he stays healthy.
4. Sticking with the Chargers, it looks like Vincent Jackson will sign his tender next week, serve a three-game team suspension, and then be in the lineup for Week 12. Unfortunately for his fantasy owners, that’s too late to get anything in a trade for him, and he’s unlikely to establish himself as a quality starter before Week 15 or 16. If some other team is desperate, unload V-Jax for some depth and move on.
5. You have to love the intelligence of some of the players in the league. Bucs defensive tackle Gerald McCoy, the third player taken in this year’s rookie draft, told reporters that he was going to “kill” former college teammate quarterback Sam Bradford. Presumably McCoy missed the news that two players were fined $50,000 this week for illegal hits while another player received a $75,000 fine.
6. Continuing with the fines handed down by the NFL this week and the intelligence of some the league’s players, did Steelers linebacker James Harrison really think his comments about retiring were anything more than a major league sulk job? Since he signed a six-year, $51.2 million contract with a $10 million signing bonus and $20 million in guarantees, Harrison would have to cut a significant check to the Steelers and forego an additional $10 million in guarantees if he were to retire. No surprise then that he returned to the team after “debating” his retirement for a day.
7. Broncos running back Knowshon Moreno, the first running back taken in the 2009 draft, has had a slow start to the season due to a hamstring injury suffered in the preseason—and with 12 carries for 48 yards, he didn’t do much in his first game since Week 2. Moreno owners also certainly took note of the 13 carries that went to Correll Buckhalter and Laurence Maroney. However, Moreno was benched for committing a false start penalty and fumbling and was likely being eased back into action by head coach Josh McDaniels. Look for Moreno to have his first big game of the year this week at home against a Raiders run defense that is once again among the worst in the league.
8. While Eagles head coach Andy Reid’s comments can never be taken at face value, I am convinced that Michael Vick will be back under center as soon as he is healthy. That being said, it is worth noting that with his 326-yard performance this week, Kevin Kolb has now passed for over 300 yards in three of his five career starts. Only two other quarterbacks have accomplished this feat.
9. Given their 1-4 record, it would be easy to write off the Cowboys’ playoff chances. But a closer look reveals that none of their losses has been by more than seven points. Dallas remains a talented team that is capable of going on a lengthy winning streak, which would be more likely if they could reign in their propensity for shooting themselves in the foot with numerous penalties.
10. Earlier this season, Rams running back Steven Jackson passed Marshall Faulk to become the franchise’s second-leading rusher. Jackson now stands just 32 yards shy of surpassing Eric Dickerson to become the Rams all-time leading rusher.
11. Ravens wide receiver Donte’ Stallworth is back practicing with the team after breaking a bone in his left foot during the preseason that kept him out of the first six games. Baltimore signed Stallworth to provide a speed element to their group of wide receivers, and he figures to be used on deep plays to help soften up opposing defenses. With tight end Todd Heap enjoying a productive season and Anquan Boldin and Derrick Mason playing well, there is a possibility the Ravens could jettison T.J. Houshmandzadeh from the roster at some point. While that might sound ridiculous to some, Houshmandzadeh is no longer the player he was in Cincinnati, and he has made waves in Baltimore since signing with the Ravens, after being released by the Seahawks in the preseason. Showing his frustration might have been acceptable if he were producing, but he has just nine receptions for 128 yards and a touchdown in six games this season. Ravens management may well decide that Houshmandzadeh is likely to act out if Stallworth’s presence reduces his role (which is likely), and that he is more bother than he is worth at this point in his career. It doesn’t help matters than none of the Ravens top four wide receivers play special teams, which makes it possible that Houshmandzadeh could even become a game-day inactive when Stallworth returns.
12. I am the first to admit that I am not a huge college football fan, but my friends who are say that the performance of Rams wide receiver Danario Alexander in his first game as a pro was no fluke. Alexander caught four of his five targets for 74 yards and a touchdown against the Chargers, blowing past a flat-footed Antoine Cason before making a nice diving catch in the end zone. Alexander was expected to be a taken in the early rounds of the draft; that was, before he suffered a knee injury at The Senior Bowl, which caused him to go undrafted. The Rams other outside receivers (Brandon Gibson, Laurent Robinson, Mardy Gilyard) are unproven players, so Alexander has a chance to impress. While he’s hardly a candidate to start on a weekly basis in 10-team leagues, he could be useful in larger redraft leagues and is a great prospect in dynasty formats.
13. Another wide receiver that is worth picking up is Jason Avant of the Eagles. Avant will step into the starting lineup until DeSean Jackson returns from the concussion he suffered against the Falcons. The concussion is Jackson’s second since entering the league, and it’s possible that could cause him to miss multiple games. Like most teams in the league, the Eagles do not divulge any more information on injuries than is required, but players with multiple concussions are often held out for more than a week. While Avant is no threat to supplant Jackson or Jeremy Maclin in the starting lineup, he is a solid receiver on short and intermediate routes and is not afraid to go across the middle. He also has decent size and could steal some targets in the red zone.
14. With their loss this week to the Giants in New York, Detroit tied their own record of 24 for most consecutive road losses. Fortunately for the Lions, their next road game is in Buffalo in Week 10, where they have a solid chance to snap that losing streak.
15. Keeping with the Lions, rookie running back Jahvid Best was a fantasy revelation after the first two weeks of the season, with 55 fantasy points—40 of which came during a monster Week 2 performance against the Eagles. However, he has struggled since then, with just 274 total yards and no touchdowns. Worst yet, he has averaged just 3.2 yards per carry during that four-game span.
16. Could a 0-16 season be in the cards for the Panthers? After this week’s home game against 1-5 San Francisco, their remaining home games are against teams that currently have winning records. Their only road game against a team that currently has a losing record comes in Week 12 against the Browns.
17. If you go to the San Diego Chargers page on NFL.com, you will see that they rank first in the league in both offense and defense. Interesting stats considering they are 2-4. Further proof that there are lies, damn lies in statistics.
18. We all know about the Mike Martz factor on a team’s offense. Here’s further proof: The Bears gave up 35 sacks in 2009 but have given up 27 over just six games in 2010 (a projected total of 72 for the season).
19. Here’s to Chargers wide receiver Patrick Crayton for pointing out that his former coach in Dallas, Wade Philips, is very laid back and not involved in the team’s offense. If that’s not stating the obvious, I’m not sure what is. Philips has been a defensive coach for his entire career, and it is widely assumed that the only reason he has remained the Cowboys head coach, despite their repeated failures in the playoffs, is because he does what owner Jerry Jones tells him to do. If the NFL has a lap dog coach, Philips is it—and Crayton certainly would have been better-served keeping quiet on what is clearly well-known throughout the league.
By: Dave Stringer — October 19, 2010 @ 7:02 pm
QUARTERBACKS
Moving Up
Ben Roethlisberger, Steelers
In his first game back after serving a four-game suspension, Roethlisberger looked to be in midseason form. Playing at home against a weak Browns defense, he looked rusty early in the game but shook it off to finish 16 of 27 for 257 yards and three touchdowns with a single pick. Roethlisberger’s owners have to be excited by his early success, and after this week’s performance, he looks like he could be a top ten fantasy quarterback over the balance of the season.
Moving Down
 A big part of the problem. Brett Favre, Vikings
After an up-and-down performance last week in his first game with Randy Moss replenishing the team’s depth chart at wide receiver, Favre fell back to earth this Sunday against the Cowboys. He finished the Vikings 24-21 win going 14 of 19 for 118 yards and a touchdown, throwing for less than 200 yards for the second time in five games. (He managed just 201 yards in one of those other three games.) It’s looking more and more like Favre—not just his receivers—could be a big part of the problem with the Vikings passing game.
Jason Campbell, Raiders
Just in case you were holding onto Campbell in hopes that he would win the starting job back from Bruce Gradowski and become productive, you can now safely move on. Subbing again for an injured Gradowski, Campbell went 8 for 21 with 83 yards and two picks against an average 49ers secondary. He has failed to top 200 yards passing in four games and is averaging just over 125 passing yards per game.
RUNNING BACKS
Moving Up
Ryan Torain, Redskins
Torain was impressive this week, topping 100 yards for the first time in his career. Playing against the soft Indy run defense, he had 104 yards and two touchdowns on 20 carries. He gets a tough Bears run defense next, followed by a pair of softies (Lions and Eagles) with the team’s bye in the middle. With Clinton Portis’s return not yet on the horizon, Torain is beginning to look like a low-end RB2.
Chris Ivory, Saints
Ivory clearly separated himself from the Saints’ other backup running backs this week with his first big performance of the season. He had a healthy 158 yards on just 15 carries and chipped in 17 receiving yards on his lone reception. Ladell Betts and Julius Jones looked pedestrian against the Bucs, and Pierre Thomas has yet to even test his injured ankle in practice, which means Ivory could be line for significant touches against a porous Browns defense.
Danny Woodhead, Patriots
It looks like Woodhead has assumed Kevin Faulk’s role in the Patriots offense and is getting plenty of playing time when the team runs its no-huddle. He is splitting time with BenJarvus Green-Ellis and is also being used on passing downs while Green-Ellis gets the short-yardage work. In the Patriots pass-heavy offense, Woodhead figures to get enough looks to be a solid flex option. He has 25 touches over the last two games and has turned that into 162 yards and a touchdown.
Moving Down
Willis McGahee, Ravens
McGahee was a decent flex play last season and was shaping up to be one again in 2010 in larger leagues. It might be time to change that line of thinking. This week against the Patriots, he failed to get on the field as the Ravens went exclusively with Ray Rice and LeRon McClain. Repeat after me: Not One Single Play. No plays means no touches, which means there’s no point in owning him.
WIDE RECEIVERS
Moving Up
Legedu Naanee and Patrick Crayton, Chargers
Injuries create opportunities and it looks like Naanee and Crayton are the two Chargers most likely to benefit from the injuries suffered by wide receiver Malcom Floyd and tight end Antonio Gates. Early reports indicate that Floyd will miss this coming game against the Patriots; Gates may be able to suit up. However, Gates is likely to see a reduced workload due to his injured ankle. Naanee is dealing with an injured hamstring but appears ready to return. Crayton has already taken advantage of his increased role, catching six of seven targets for 117 yards against the Rams.
Jeremy Maclin and Jason Avant, Eagles
One player is here because of his production and the other is here because of his opportunity. After this week’s monster performance (seven receptions for 159 yards and two touchdowns), Maclin now has six touchdowns in six games and is the fourth-ranked fantasy wide receiver. With DeSean Jackson expected to miss at least one game with a concussion (and possibly several more), Avant will step into the starting lineup—and he has produced when given an opportunity in the past. In 2009 he caught 41 of 58 targets for 587 yards and three touchdowns. He immediately becomes a decent bye-week starter as long as Jackson is out.
Johnny Knox, Bears
Okay, Devin Hester fans, it’s officially time to give up on his becoming the go-to wide receiver in the Bears offense. That role officially belongs to Johnny Knox. At a certain point, the numbers can’t lie. That point occurred during this week’s game against the Seahawks. Knox saw 11 targets to just three for Hester, and he turned those targets into five receptions for 120 yards. For the season, Knox has been targeted 34 times, catching 18 passes for an eye-opening 392 yards—an average of 21.8 yards per reception. While he hasn’t yet found the end zone, it’s safe to assume that those big plays will translate into touchdown production in the coming weeks. More on Hester below in the Moving Down section.
Michael Crabtree, 49ers
Since Michael Johnson took over as offensive coordinator in San Francisco three games ago, Crabtree has had 18 receptions for 220 yards and a pair of touchdowns. He is also averaging just under nine targets per game, which means he has regained quarterback Alex Smith’s trust. It’s gone from night to day since Jimmy Raye was fired. If Crabtree is languishing on another team’s bench, go get him.
Deion Branch, Patriots
I didn’t think Branch had much left to offer, but he certainly proved me wrong this week with nine receptions for 98 yards and a touchdown against the Ravens. With Brandon Tate not ready to assume a large part in the Patriots offense, and with defenses likely to clamp down on Wes Welker, Branch should be in line for plenty of single coverage in the coming weeks. There’s a bit of a qualifier with this one since the Ravens secondary played very poorly this week. Nonetheless, Branch proved that he can still beat mid-level corners. He looks like a WR3 going forward.
Mike Williams, Seahawks
Williams had been relatively silent since an encouraging Week 1 performance against the 49ers when he had four receptions for 64 yards. A shoulder injury suffered in Week 3 appeared to have slowed him down. But with Deion Branch traded, Williams was featured this week against the Bears and came through in a big way with 10 receptions for 123 yards on 15 targets. He shapes up as the Seahawks’ top wide receiver at the moment, but that figures to be a fluid situation, with Deon Butler and possibly Golden Tate getting some opportunities for big roles as well.
Moving Down
Devin Hester, Bears
Aside from a solid performance in Week 1 against the Cowboys, Hester has been a complete non-factor this season and is playing worse than he did in 2009. He is currently on pace to finish the year with 405 receiving yards, which would be his lowest production since being shifted to wide receiver on a full-time basis for the 2008 season. Here are his fantasy points per game: 1, 13, 1, 2, 1, 2. Here are his receiving yardage totals: 17, 77, 16, 16, 0, 26. There you have it. There is a one-in-six chance he will help your fantasy squad on any given week.
Kevin Walter, Texans
Looks like the target well has run dry for Walter in Houston. After his monster performance in Week 2, Walter has been held to under 35 receiving yards for three straight games and did not get a single target this week against the Chiefs. With Andre Johnson, Jacoby Jones, and Owen Daniels all healthy, it looks like Walter will be relegated to a minor role in the Texans offense.
Brandon Tate, Patriots
To be honest, I never felt like Tate was ready to take over for Randy Moss in New England, and he showed during this week’s win over the Ravens just how unprepared he is to become a major contributor in the team’s pass-heavy offense. Tate was targeted four times but failed to catch a single pass during a game in which Tom Brady attempted 44 passes.
TIGHT ENDS
Moving Up
Owen Daniels, Texans
Nothing spectacular from Daniels this week but, then again, we learned early in 2010 that he wasn’t going to duplicate his production from last year—at least not until he was fully recovered from the knee injury that prematurely ended his 2009 season. He had his first big game of the year this week against the Chiefs, catching five passes for 79 yards. While Daniels failed to find the end zone, his performance was still encouraging, given that his season-high for receiving yards had been 45 and he was averaging just 23 yards per game.
Ben Watson, Browns
After languishing in New England, Watson has clearly found a home in Cleveland. Always known for his superlative physical ability but a disappointment due to his inability to turn that into production, Watson has blossomed in Cleveland and is the ninth-ranked fantasy tight end after six weeks. This week, with six receptions for 88 yards and a score, he played his best game since Week 11 of the 2008 season. With the Browns struggling to get production from their wide receivers, Watson has been getting a steady number of targets and has topped 45 yards in five of six games in 2010.
Moving Down
Greg Olsen, Bears
Olsen had been surprisingly productive through four weeks, given the history of starting tight ends in a Mike Martz offense. However, the wheels have fallen off over the last two weeks, with Olsen failing to make even a dent in the stat column. And after two straight games without a single reception, Olsen should be nailed to your bench until he puts up a decent performance.
By: Dave Stringer — October 15, 2010 @ 1:19 pm
1. We all know that the NFL has become a passing league over the last decade, with several quarterbacks regularly putting up numbers that would have been considered remarkable 10 to 20 years ago. Two years ago, Saints quarterback Drew Brees came within 15 yards of tying Dan Marino’s record for passing yards in a season, a record that was considered unbreakable after Marino’s amazing 1984 season. However, after five weeks this year, three quarterbacks are on pace to break that record. The trio of Philip Rivers (on pace for 5,629 passing yards), Kyle Orton (5,545), and Peyton Manning (5,149) all have a chance to eclipse Marino’s single-season numbers, with Rivers likely having the best chance if the Chargers running game fails to breakout.
2. The Rams passing attack was dealt a major blow when wide receiver Mark Clayton suffered a torn patellar tendon during this week’s loss to Detroit. Since being acquired from the Ravens just prior to opening day, Clayton had quickly emerged as the team’s top receiver and had caught 22 passes for 300 yards and two touchdowns during the first four games. Although Laurent Robinson may seem like the obvious choice to replace Clayton in the starting lineup, look for rookie fourth-round pick Mardy Gilyard to get the nod. Clayton was playing flanker in the Rams offense, and Gilyard has been learning the slot and flanker positions while Robinson has been lining up at split end, where Brandon Gibson usually gets most of the reps.
3. With their win over the Rams this week, the Lions won their first game of 2010 and just their third over their last 38 games. This week in New York against the Giants, they will attempt to win back-to-back games for the first time in 45 contests, dating back to the 2007 season.
4. This week, the Bills announced they were abandoning their 3-4 defense and moving back to the 4-3 as their base package. Head coach Chan Gailey wanted to run the 3-4 and brought in former Dolphins assistant George Edwards to be the team’s defensive coordinator and lead the switch. However, Gailey and general manager Buddy Nix failed to obtain the proper personnel to run the 3-4, so it comes as no surprise that Buffalo has not been able to stop the run in 2010. The Bills don’t have a run-stuffing nose tackle to anchor the front line, their outside linebackers consist almost exclusively of former defensive ends in their first year at a new position, and they were relying on former Dolphin and Giant retread Reggie Torbor to provide a pass rush along with overrated 2009 first-round pick Aaron Maybin, who routinely gets steamrolled in the rushing game by opposing offensive lineman.
5. Keeping with the Bills, if you’re in an IDP league, roll with any defensive lineman that is facing the Bills in the coming weeks. Left tackle Demetrious Bell continues to struggle as he recovers from knee surgery, and right tackle Cornell Green is expected to miss several weeks with a sore knee that has bothered him since the preseason. Even though Green hasn’t been very good in his first year in Buffalo, the Bills failed to bring in a veteran swing tackle backup, so they will turn to undrafted rookie free agent Cordaro Howard to start in Green’s absence.
6. The Texans, as expected, didn’t re-sign cornerback Dunta Robinson in the offseason as he entered free agency, choosing instead to go with a group of young players at the position. The team’s top four cornerbacks entering the season were a pair of second year players in Brice McCain and Glover Quin and a pair of rookies in Kareem Jackson (first round) and Sherrick McManis (fifth round). Quin and Jackson have struggled in starting roles, and the Texans currently rank last in the league in passing defense, giving up 330 yards per game. They have also given up a whopping 11 touchdown passes, ranking second-worst in the league in that category. Although general manager Rick Smith has maintained that the pass defense will come around, the team signed aging veterans Adewale Ogunleye and Ryan Denney (since released) to help out in pass rushing roles (and thus to help the cornerbacks). They also claimed former Bears defensive end Mark Anderson off waivers this week.
 Gimme the damn ball! 7. Greg Jennings of the Packers has never been mentioned in the same category as the league’s diva wide receivers, such as Terrell Owens and Chad Ochocinco, but he apparently went off on the coaches over his lack of use during this week’s loss to the Redskins. He has had a disappointing start to the season with just two receptions in three straight games and 101 receiving yards over the last four. However, he figures to get more looks in the coming weeks with Green Bay’s other receivers coming off poor performances against Washington (six drops between Donald Driver, James Jones, and Jordy Nelson) and tight end Jermichael Finley out at least eight games (and possibly for the year) with a knee injury. That makes Jennings a great buy-low candidate.
8. The sports world is full of stories of players and their agents turning down lucrative contract offers, only to sign at a later date for far less money. It’s just not often that you see a pair of players from the same team do so over a two-week period with such differing results. Chargers left tackle Marcus McNeill and wide receiver Vincent Jackson both received restricted free agent tenders back in February for just over $3-million, and both players vowed they would not sign the tenders, opting to sit out the 2010 season instead. However, McNeill backed down and signed his tender two weeks ago, agreeing to a five-year contract extension for $48.5-million that contains $24.5-million in guaranteed money. This week, word leaked out that Jackson will sign his tender but will not receive the $3.3-million contract he was tendered back in February. Chargers general manager A.J. Smith reduced the tendered amount back on June 15th, and Jackson will play for a prorated portion of the new tender of $583,000. That means he will make $218,000 if he reports in time to play six games—the minimum number of games required for him to become an unrestricted free agent next year.
9. Keeping with Jackson, he faces numerous hurdles in order to have a productive stretch of games when he returns. First of all, he will not be in game shape, and that will put him at a significant disadvantage for his first couple of games. While Jackson is a quality wide receiver, he doesn’t rank among the league’s elite yet. Secondly, it remains to be seen whether he will show up in the proper frame of mine and be motivated. There is certainly a chance that he will simply go through the motions. Finally, as we have seen with other players who have missed time with holdouts, there is an increased chance of injury for those who attempt to get up to game speed quickly and try to do too much, too early. If you are a V-Jax owner and a team comes looking for him in a trade, I would seriously consider moving him, given the various obstacles he faces in becoming a quality fantasy contributor in 2010.
10. The Saints haven’t been nearly as explosive this season as in 2009. New Orleans is currently on pace to finish with just 317 points after scoring 510 last season. The question is: why has there been such a dramatic drop off? Well, there are two main reasons. First off, the team’s rushing attack has suffered with the loss of Reggie Bush and Pierre Thomas. After ranking sixth in the league in rushing in 2009, with 21 rushing touchdowns while averaging 4.5 yards per carry, they now rank 31st, with just a single rushing touchdown in five games. Secondly, with Bush out of the line-up, opposing defenses can play both safeties deep, thereby taking away the big plays that were the Saints’ hallmark over the last two seasons. Don’t expect much to change until both Thomas and Bush return to the lineup.
By: Dave Stringer — October 12, 2010 @ 2:11 pm
QUARTERBACKS
Moving Up
Ryan Fitzpatrick, Bills
Fitzpatrick has topped 20 fantasy points in three consecutive games and ranks sixth in points per game at the quarterback position, despite passing for just 595 yards during that stretch. He has padded his fantasy production by tossing eight touchdowns, and he also added 74 rushing yards in Week 4. While I’m not anointing him starter material by any means, given the state of the Bills offense, he is decent bye week filler and is now worthy of a roster spot in most leagues.
Moving Down
Matt Schaub, Texans
I’m a little wary to designate Schaub as Moving Down. I put him here after Week 1, following the Texans’ bullying of the Colts behind a solid rushing attack led by Arian Foster, rationalizing that with a decent running game, Houston would throw far less in 2010 than they did last season. Then Schaub went out and tossed for 497 yards and three touchdowns against the Redskins in Week 2. That was nice, since he’s my starter in one league; yet not so nice, since it made my prognostication look bad. Since then, he has thrown for 633 yards (a 211-yard per-game average) and has now thrown for less than 200 yards in three out of fives games.
RUNNING BACKS
Moving Up
Michael Bush, Raiders
Bush didn’t get much work in his first couple games back from missing time with a wrist injury, and it appeared he had become nothing more than Darren McFadden’s handcuff. That’s not necessarily a bad thing, however, given McFadden’s injury history. This week, with McFadden out because of a strained hamstring, Bush had a solid game against a tough Chargers run defense, gaining 104 yards and a touchdown on 26 carries. He also chipped in three receptions for 31 yards and may have earned himself a bigger portion of the touches out of the Raiders backfield going forward. Plus, he will be a nice fill-in if (when?) McFadden gets hurt.
Jamaal Charles, Chiefs
Charles fumbled this week and failed to score a touchdown, but the most interesting development in the Chiefs backfield was that Charles received significantly more touches than starter Thomas Jones. Charles had 17 touches to just eight for Jones, marking the first time since Week 1 that has happened (the Week 1 tally was 12 for Charles and 11 for Jones). Could the light have gone on during the team’s Week 4 bye, showing Chiefs head coach Todd Haley that maybe the team’s most dynamic offensive player should get more touches? Will it take until next year’s bye before Haley figures out that the best players should be in the starting lineup? Just how quick is Haley on the uptake? Fantasy owners want to know. I’m guessing this is the beginning of a trend as Haley realizes that the Chiefs can’t rely on special teams and defense to carry them, as they did during their first three games.
Fred Jackson, Bills
Marshawn Lynch is gone. Bills head coach Chan Gailey said that Jackson would take over as the team’s starter, and Jackson got the majority of the work this week over C.J. Spiller (13 touches to six). While Jackson is the current starter and was productive in 2009, I’m not getting too excited about him. Expect Spiller to earn a larger role as the season progresses and don’t forget that the Bills offense is hit-and-miss, with more misses than hits. While Jackson topped 1,400 total yards in 2009, it is worth noting that he scored just four touchdowns.
Jerome Harrison, Browns
He’s back! After getting no touches during Week 4, Harrison got some work this week against the Falcons, gaining six yards on six carries. While that is hardly stellar production, the more interesting development was starting running back Peyton Hillis suffering another injury. Hillis has now suffered thigh and quad injuries over the last two weeks and may not be suited for such a heavy workload. Harrison has been productive at times, including having some huge games at the end of last season, so he is worth stashing away on your roster in case Hillis gets hurt again.
Mike Hart, Colts
This one’s for deeper leagues. Let’s take stock of the Colts backfield. Joseph Addai is injury prone and is well on his way to averaging under 4.0 yards per carry for the third consecutive season (he’s currently at 3.7 yards per tote). Donald Brown also can’t stay healthy, having missed seven games out of 21 in his career, and he has done little to suggest that he’s ready to challenge Addai as the starter. Then there is Hart, who had a tidy game this week with 11 carries for 50 yards and a touchdown as well as a reception that went for five yards, subbing for the injured Addai. The Colts generally release injury information early, so expect an update on Addai’s neck or shoulder injury before many fantasy leagues process their waiver wires.
Felix Jones, Cowboys
Jones had 19 touches this week to just six for Marion Barber, which may indicate that the Cowboys will start using him more. That will likely lead to another Jones injury, so I’m hardly excited. Here’s my quick take on Jones: He will not develop into a consistent fantasy option in 2010. The Dallas running attack has been miserable. And good luck guessing which week the Cowboys will actually succeed at running, combined with Jones being the back (between himself, Barber, and Choice) who gets the rock. Nonetheless, he’s moving up simply because this was one of those weeks—he picked up 126 total yards.
Brandon Jackson, Packers
I’m moving Jackson up—not because I like him, but because I have been so harsh on him that I must make amends for his big game this week against the Redskins (10 carries for 115 yards, five receptions for 25 yards). So, just to be clear, he’s up because he was good this week, not because I think he’ll be good over the balance of the season. And he’s last on this list for a reason. Take head.
Moving Down
Justin Forsett and Leon Washington, Seahawks
After the Seahawks acquired Marshawn Lynch from the Bills, the odds of Forsett having a breakout season in 2010 dropped to virtually nil. As for Washington, there was a chance he might gain a majority of the work at running back around midseason if he could prove that he was completely healthy. That also seems highly unlikely now. With the Seahawks offence hardly being a juggernaut, Forsett is worth holding onto only in deep leagues, and you can officially drop Washington in all but the largest fantasy formats.
Mike Tolbert, Chargers
Tolbert had a touchdown this week against the Raiders. But he also had just 12 yards on his 11 carries and sat for most of the fourth quarter while Ryan Mathews got the work. Mathews finished with 59 yards on just nine carries and it is abundantly clear that he is the team’s top threat out of the backfield.
WIDE RECEIVERS
Moving Up
Malcom Floyd, Chargers
Well, I benched Floyd this week in favor of (ahem) Derrick Mason, thinking that the Raiders would put Nnamdi Asomugha on Floyd. All he did was go off for eight receptions, 213 yards, and a touchdown. Basically, I had him down as a must-start except in games against the Broncos (Champ Bailey) and the Raiders. After this performance, he is now the fourth-ranked wide receiver in standard fantasy formats, which makes him a must-start on a weekly basis.
Michael Crabtree, 49ers
There was a Michael Crabtree sighting this weekend and that collective sigh that reverberated across the fantasy landscape was his owners contemplating what the 2009 first-rounder might accomplish with his head screwed on straight. Facing a respectable Eagles pass defense, Crabtree had easily his best game of the season and the best game of his brief career, catching nine passes for 104 yards and a touchdown. He was targeted 14 times by quarterback Alex Smith, hopefully squashing the rumors that Smith was apprehensive about going to Crabtree after he caused numerous interceptions earlier this season.
Brandon Lloyd, Broncos
Keeping with what appears to be this week’s theme, Lloyd has also now firmly established himself as a week-in, week-out must-start for fantasy purposes. The mercurial Lloyd now leads the league in receiving yards with 589 on just 30 catches, which translates into an impressive 19.6 yards per catch. He also has three touchdowns and is the top-ranked fantasy wide receiver after five games. Imagine what you could have won in Vegas had you thrown down some money on that! Lloyd has topped 100 yards receiving in three straight games and has four 100-yard games in 2010. He is clearly the best Broncos receiver to own and has established himself as Kyle Orton’s go-to guy in an offense that is throwing it plenty.
Percy Harvin, Vikings
Harvin more than doubled his 2010 fantasy production this week with a pair of touchdowns and 97 receiving yards against the Jets. Harvin seemed to benefit from playing opposite Randy Moss, with the Jets frequently putting a safety deep on Moss’s side of the field. If Sidney Rice fails to make it back onto the field in 2010, Harvin shapes up as a decent WR3 going forward. Monitor the Rice situation and consider Harvin a potential sell-high candidate in the coming weeks if he continues to play well and Rice’s return becomes imminent.
Steve Johnson, Bills
Who? Steve Johnson, that’s who. And, yeah, that’s right, he plays for the woebegone Bills. Johnson entered the season as the starter opposite Lee Evans, only to quickly lose the job to Roscoe Parrish. No matter. Johnson had a nice game this week against Jacksonville with five receptions for 46 yards and two touchdowns, and he has now scored touchdowns in three straight games. For the season, Johnson has caught 17 of his 18 targets for 214 yards and four touchdowns. Which begs the question: Why isn’t Buffalo throwing it to him more often?
Moving Down
Greg Jennings, Packers
Failing to produce on a consistent basis, Jennings has been one of the biggest disappointments at wide receiver in 2010. This week, he had his third consecutive two-catch performance, and he has just 14 receptions for 183 yards over the Packers’ five games. His fantasy stats have been padded by three touchdowns, but he has not attained the WR1 status most owners expected entering the season. With Green Bay’s offensive line struggling and opposing defenses playing mostly cover-two sets to take away big plays from the Packers potent offense, Jennings has become a bit of a forgotten man. I still like him, just a lot less than I did earlier in the season.
Chad Ochocinco, Bengals
Ochocinco ranks right up there with Jennings in terms of being a huge disappointment. Although I’m not ready to write him off just yet, my expectations for him over the balance of the season are definitely lower than those of Jennings. At this point, Ochocinco is clearly the number two receiver behind Terrell Owens in Cincinnati’s passing offense. Much like when T.J. Houshmandzadeh was in Cincinnati, Owens has become the team’s best option on short and intermediate routes and Ochocinco is working downfield. However, Owens is a much more viable target on deep passing plays than Houshmandzadeh was. Perhaps that’s why Ochocinco has just 11 targets over the last two games.
 Catching the ball - a key component in being a relevant fantasy receiver. Dwayne Bowe, Chiefs
Well, I don’t know. I’ve never been an NFL receiver or head coach, but I’m guessing that you can’t produce if you can’t catch the ball—and Bowe can’t seem to do that. I’m also guessing that head coaches aren’t going to keep calling plays for receivers who can’t make the catch. This week, Bowe dropped two easy passes, including one in the end zone that would have given the Chiefs a 13-9 lead over the Colts in a game they eventually lost. Of course, the Chiefs head coach is a guy who starts Thomas Jones over Jamaal Charles at running back, so maybe he will keeping throwing it to Bowe.
TIGHT ENDS
Moving Up
Marcedes Lewis, Jaguars
I had him moving up after Week 2 and it’s time to put him here again. Although Lewis has put up a middling receiving yardage total (192 in five games), he has emerged as a quality red zone target for quarterback David Garrard. After failing to catch more than two touchdowns during any of his first four years in the league, Lewis has five touchdowns already in 2010, making him the fourth-ranked fantasy tight end.
Moving Down
Dustin Keller, Jets
After suffering through a disappointing sophomore season, Keller emerged as a threat early this year, catching 19 passes for 254 yard and five touchdowns during the Jets first four games. This week, with Santonio Holmes in the line-up for the first time and Jerricho Cotchery and Braylon Edwards healthy, Keller was targeted just five times, catching two passes for 14 yards. While Keller is still a valuable fantasy tight end, there are warning signs on the horizon. And expecting him to produce as he did during his first four games is unwise. He’s definitely a sell-high candidate.
By: Dave Stringer — October 8, 2010 @ 11:16 am
1. The leading fantasy producer at tight end for the Houston Texans is Owen Daniels, right? Wrong. It’s Joel Dreessen courtesy of his five-reception, 73 yard, one touchdown performance this past week against the Raiders. In fact, his 13 fantasy points last week are nine more than Daniels (who has two games with under 10 yards) has this season. At this point, it appears that Dreessen has surpassed Daniels in the tight end pecking order in Houston.
2. Eagles head coach Andy Reid has always had a reputation of being poor at clock management but he seems to have taken his incompetence to a new level. This week, LeSean McCoy was ruled down just short of the goal line with 23 seconds remaining before halftime and Philadelphia trailing Washington 17-3. The replay booth called for a review that took five minutes to complete and the call was not overturned. Despite having all that time to come up with a fourth down play call, the Eagles were called for delay of game, forcing them to kick a field goal on fourth down at the six-yard line.
3. Jaguars kicker Josh Scobee’s 59-yard game winning field goal against the Colts last week was the third longest game winning field goal and eighth longest in the history of the league. For whatever reason, the Jaguars always play the Colts tough and Scobee now has three game winning field goals over Indianapolis, all from greater than 50 yards. I have some advice for Josh. After you nail a game winning kick, don’t try to run away from your teammates. You are a kicker. They will catch you. Hit the ground after the kick and take cover so you don’t get hurt.
 He's good. 4. Moving to the Colts, Reggie Wayne’s monster day last week (10 receptions for 176 yards) moves him and quarterback Peyton Manning into second place on the list of most receiving yards between a wide receiver and quarterback in league history. The only duo ahead of them are Manning and former Colts wide receiver Marvin Harrison.
5. Since the start of the 2007 season, there have been three 40-yard runs by quarterbacks. It’s not surprising that Vince Young and Donovan McNabb have accomplished the feat given their running ability but Lions quarterback Shaun Hill was a surprise addition with a 40-yard scamper last week against the Packers.
6. Packers cornerback Charles Woodson had an interception return for a touchdown last week against the Lions, given him ten such plays in his career. That ranks him third all-time in that category behind Deion Sanders (12) and Rod Woodson (11).
7. With their special teams having a dominant performance during the shellacking of the Dolphins on Monday night, New England became the first team in NFL history to score a touchdown on a run, a pass, interception, kickoff return and a blocked field goal.
8. Here’s to the Rams, who are currently tied for first place in the woeful NFC West with a record of two wins and two losses. Entering last week’s home game against Seattle, the Rams had lost ten straight games to Seattle and 15 straight division games. With their 20-3 thrashing of the Seahawks, the Rams stopped both streaks and are beginning to look like they could challenge for the division crown behind rookie quarterback Sam Bradford and running back Steven Jackson, who surpassed Marshall Faulk this week to become the team’s second leading all-time rusher behind Eric Dickerson. That’s good company to keep.
9. Keeping with the Rams, they have allowed 17 points or less in their first four games, an astounding statistic given that their defense has ranked at the bottom of the league for most of the past decade. This is the first times a Rams defense has achieved this feat since the 1978 season.
10. More Rams. Their defense has given up four touchdowns – tied for the league lead with the Steelers and Ravens (sorry – I’m a Rams fan and I just had to mention that since I may never get the opportunity to do so again).
11. It was a coup for Fred Jackson owners when Buffalo finally traded Marshawn Lynch; shipping him to the Seahawks. Jackson figures to take over for Lynch in the Bills starting line-up and was a solid producer in that capacity in 2009. However, the Bills figure to be out of the playoff hunt early and so there’s a high probability that the team’s management will want rookie first round pick C.J. Spiller to see extended playing time before the end of the year. Jackson definitely shapes up as a sell high candidate over the next few weeks, provided of course that he performs the way he did last season.
12. Keeping with the Bills, tight end Shawn Nelson is eligible to return to the team this week after serving a four-game suspension for violating the league’s substance-abuse policy. Nelson underwent groin surgery four weeks ago so he may not be quite ready but the Bills are hopeful that the speedy tight end can help provide a spark to their anaemic passing attack. He flashed his ability at times during his rookie season in 2009 and may be ready for a bigger role in 2010.
13. With Randy Moss out of the picture, reports are circulating that the Patriots have contacted the Chargers about Vincent Jackson and the Seahawks about Deion Branch. While Jackson would make some sense in New England, it seems unlikely that Chargers general manager A.J. Smith would deal him to a team that San Diego could face in the playoffs. However, the Patriots are loaded with 2011 draft picks so they have the ability to make an offer that Smith would have a hard time turning down. As for Branch, he is on his last legs and would merely provide veteran depth and experience to the roster. Perhaps the Patriots are putting the Branch option out there to help drive down the price on Jackson, who is the player that could help propel them into the playoffs.
14. Here’s to Bears offensive coordinator Mike Martz for stepping up and taking the blame for the team’s inept offensive effort during last week’s loss to the Giants. However, more than a fair share of the blame should go to quarterback Jay Cutler as well as the team’s offensive line. Cutler’s ability to read defenses has always been a question mark and never more so than against the Giants. While the league’s best quarterbacks are all adept at defeating the blitz, generally by throwing to the location that a blitzing defender has vacated, Cutler either misread several blitzes last week or refused to throw to the area the blitzing player left open.
15. Sticking with the Bears, look for the team to alter it starters along the offensive line for the third time this season. J’Marcus Webb, a rookie seventh round pick, has been subbing in for starter Kevin Shaffer at right tackle but may take over in the starting line-up this week. Guard Edwin Williams (Redskins), plucked off the waiver wire prior to the season, could start ahead of second-year player Lance Louis at right guard. In addition, left tackle Chris Williams may return to the line-up this week. Either way, it looks like the Bears will start their third offensive line combination in five games this season.
16. Looks like Tennessee wide receiver Justin Gage is battling a hamstring injury and might miss this week’s game against the Cowboys. Perhaps that will provide an opportunity either Nate Washington or second-year player Kenny Britt to finally emerge as the Titans number one wide receiver.
17. Keeping with the Titans-Cowboys matchup, here’s a little tidbit that might be useful – the Titans have won ten straight games against NFC opponents.
18. Here’s a name to keep your eye on if you are in a dynasty, PPR league – Rams wide receiver Danny Amendola. The Rams grabbed him off the Eagles practice squad last year and he played reasonably well as a rookie with 43 receptions for 326 yards and a touchdown. In the preseason, he held off rookie fourth round pick Mardy Gilyard to retain his position out of the slot. So far in 2010, he’s been targeted just under eight times per game and has 21 receptions for 208 yards – good enough to qualify as a solid backup in PPR leagues. He’s shown a willingness to go over the middle and he’s quick on underneath routes. In short, he’s a poor man’s Wes Welker but only in his second year and could grow into one of the league’s top slot receivers over the next couple of years.
19. After his second DWI charge, the Panthers finally rid themselves of wide receiver Dwayne Jarrett. Taken in the second round of the 2007, Jarrett had done little during his first three years in Carolina but was expected to be elevated to the starting line-up this season. I guess when the general manager uses a second round pick on you and is so convinced of your abilities that he releases Keyshawn Johnson, he is bound to give you more opportunities than you deserve in order to save face. Jarrett’s release is one in a long list of reasons why nobody should be surprised if both head coach John Fox and general manager Marty Hurney are looking for employment following the 2010 season.
20. Like every other fantasy enthusiast, I love reading the Start ‘Em, Sit ‘Em articles out there (none more so than FFToday’s own The Shot Caller’s Report by Bill Aquaviva). However, I’m getting more than a little tired of reading that I should be starting whichever wide receivers are facing the Baltimore Ravens. As Bill points out in this week, the Ravens are giving up a miniscule 119 yards per game through the air and have given up just one passing touchdown in 2010. Entering the season, the Ravens were expected to have a poor passing defense but that clearly hasn’t been the case so it’s past time to adjust that viewpoint.
By: Dave Stringer — October 6, 2010 @ 10:23 am
With their projected top wide receiver out indefinitely and still using crutches, the Minnesota Vikings today acquired Randy Moss from the New England Patriots.
Reports indicate the Patriots will receive a third round draft pick in the 2011 draft in return. Interestingly enough, the Patriots would likely have received a compensatory third round pick if Moss signed with another team as a free agent following the season.
The acquisition of Moss reunites the mercurial receiver with the franchise that selected him in the first round of the 1998 draft. Moss burst on to the scene as a rookie, catching 69 passes for 1,313 yards and an amazing 17 touchdowns – a rookie record that no other wide receiver has come close to approaching and which may never be broken.
In his initial stint in Minnesota, Moss had an amazing six-year run, topping 1,200 yards each season, before having a disappointing year in 2004 which ultimately led to the team trading him to Oakland.
During the period from 1998 to 2003, Moss caught 525 passes for 8,375 yards and 77 touchdowns. Only Jerry Rice and Marvin Harrison have exceeded that level of production over a six-year period.
 Just what the Vikings needed. In Minnesota, Moss immediately becomes the Vikings top wide receiver and unites him with quarterback Brett Favre for the first time in their careers. As a Packer, Favre encouraged team management to pursue Moss, but a trade with the Raiders never materialized and Moss was dealt to the Patriots.
Reports have circulated that the Packers refusal to trade for Moss was the point at which Favre began contemplating life in a uniform other than gold and green.
Minnesota’s passing attack has struggled thus far in 2010, failing to match the lofty heights it achieved in 2009 when Favre passed for 4,202 yards and 33 touchdowns with only seven interceptions. With Sidney Rice (hip) on the physically unable to perform list, the Vikings deep passing attack has floundered with few big plays in 2010.
However, the acquisition of Moss provides the team with a player that excels on deep passes and jump balls. In essence, Moss is a similar player to Rice with better deep speed… although Rice is a more skilled player on crossing routes.
In New England, it appears the Patriots are once again choosing to jettison a veteran player on the downside of their career in return for a quality draft pick. The decision to trade Moss follows the pattern that was set with the trade of defensive end Richard Seymour to the Oakland in return for a first round pick.
As with the Seymour trade, it is difficult to argue that trading Moss will help the Patriots in the short term, even if the team has developed young players at the wide receiver and tight end positions over the last two years.
Fantasy Impact
If red lights aren’t going off for Sidney Rice owners, they should be. With reports indicating Rice is still walking with crutches after preseason hip surgery, the move to acquire Moss may be an indication that Rice is behind in his recovery and possibly headed for injured reserve.
With Moss on board, even if Rice comes back healthy, he now shapes up as a high-end WR3 given that Moss will almost certainly cut into his opportunities on deep passes and in the red zone.
Second-year jack-of-all-trades, Percy Harvin was a preseason favorite as a potential breakout player, in part due to Rice’s injury, but the chances of that happening now become nil.
In the short term, Harvin remains a viable option as a fantasy starter since he will continue to get opportunities in the short and intermediate passing game. Moss’ presence may actually help Harvin as teams will likely move their safeties further from the line of scrimmage to prevent Moss from getting deep.
However, Harvin becomes a WR4 with both Moss and Rice in the line-up. Don’t give up on him in dynasty formats since the trade was not conditional on Moss signing a contract extension with Minnesota.
Owners of Bernard Berrian, already fed up with his lack of production, can now safely jettison him from their rosters.
Favre is obviously a huge fantasy winner with this trade as Moss provides him with the exact type of player he loves to throw to – a tall player, with excellent deep speed and leaping ability. While Favre remains unlikely to hit the top five as a fantasy quarterback in 2010, he immediately moves from being a matchup play to being a fantasy starter that should be ranked just outside of the big six – Drew Brees, Aaron Rodgers, Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, Tony Romo and Matt Schaub.
Brady moves to the bottom of the aforementioned list of big six now that Moss no longer resides in the Patriots starting line-up.
As for Adrian Peterson, he remains arguably the top fantasy running back but his touchdown projection may take a slight hit as Moss is an excellent red zone option as are tight end Visanthe Shiancoe and Rice. Shiancoe also will likely lose red zone touches with Moss in the line-up.
In New England, second-year receiver Brandon Tate is the player most likely to assume Moss’ role in the team’s offense. However, he will not receive the same opportunities that Moss had in the deep passing game and the team will look to replace Moss’ production with a number of players.
Tate becomes an intriguing fantasy option but is nothing more than a WR4 or WR5 in most formats. He is more valuable as a prospect in dynasty leagues.
Slot receiver Wes Welker already gets plenty of use and it is difficult to imagine the Patriots actually increasing his role given that he is less than a year removed from ACL surgery.
That leaves the Patriots tight ends and running backs as the players most likely to increase their fantasy production with Moss no longer on the roster.
Rookie tight end Aaron Hernandez has had an excellent start to the season and has more receiving yards in his first four games than any tight end has ever had. Look for him to become an integral part of the team’s offense and to replace Moss as the team’s preferred option in the red zone.
Fellow rookie tight end Rob Gronkowski figures to get more looks as well but is unlikely to be worthy of a roster spot in fantasy leagues that are not dynasty formats.
Diminutive running back Danny Woodhead has already proven adept in the passing attack and has been effective replacing Kevin Faulk, who is out for the year. While Woodhead may get more touches, he is a low-end flex play in larger leagues only.
By: Dave Stringer — October 5, 2010 @ 8:20 pm
With a trio of smaller running backs, all with similar skill sets, the Seattle Seahawks have been in the market for a physical back since the draft.
Today, they finally found that back, acquiring Marshawn Lynch from the Buffalo Bills. ESPN reports that the Bills will receive a 2011 fourth-round pick and a conditional pick in 2012. With Buffalo having used its first-round pick in this year’s draft on Clemson running back C.J. Spiller and with Fred Jackson having three years remaining on his contract, Lynch was expendable.
In Seattle, Lynch will compete with Justin Forsett and Leon Washington for playing time. Following Lynch’s acquisition, the team released Julius Jones, who started 29 games during the 2008 and 2009 seasons.
Lynch’s departure comes as no surprise given his legal difficulties since entering the league and the tumultuous relationship he had with Bills management as well as the Buffalo fanbase.
Picked by the Bills in the first round of the 2007 draft, Lynch showed much promise during his rookie season, rushing for 1,115 yards and seven touchdowns. He followed that up with another 1,000-yard season in 2008 but fell out of favor with last year’s coaching staff, losing his starting job to Jackson by season’s end.
During his time in Buffalo, Lynch was investigated in connection with a hit and run incident, ultimately pleading guilty to a reduced traffic violation charge.
Then in February of 2009, police approached Lynch and two companions inside a vehicle that smelled of marijuana and found a gun they claimed belonged to Lynch. He pleaded guilty to a misdemeanor gun charge.
Ten months later, Lynch was accused of stealing $20 from the wife of a Buffalo police officer.
Fantasy Impact
 The most talented RB on the Seahawks roster. Look for Lynch to quickly assume the lead back role in Seattle. Both Forsett and Washington are better suited to serve as backups, coming off the bench to provide a change of pace and to play on passing downs.
While Lynch has started in Buffalo since Week 2, it was widely assumed the team had moved him into the starting lineup to showcase him for a potential trade. It is hard to argue with that considering today’s developments.
Lynch has been decent thus far in 2010, but he has hardly been dominant, and it remains to be seen whether he will fulfill the potential he displayed during his first two years in the league.
Although he has solid size at 5’11, 235 pounds, there were whispers out of Buffalo that the coaching staff wanted him to be a more physical, downhill style of runner. Nonetheless, he immediately becomes the most talented running back on the Seahawks roster. He was named to the 2008 Pro Bowl and is just 24 years of age.
Lynch shapes up as a RB3 for fantasy purposes due to the Seahawks struggles on offense and the woeful performance of their offensive line so far this season. It would be foolish to suggest that his acquisition will result in a marked improvement in the Seahawks rushing attack, which currently ranks 27th in the league.
Look for Forsett to become the team’s main backup and for Washington to concentrate on his return duties on special teams. While the biggest fantasy loser from Lynch’s acquisition has to be Jones since he’s now out of a job, Forsett’s decline in value is likely causing his fantasy owner’s some major headaches right now.
In Buffalo, it’s anybody’s guess as to whether Spiller or Jackson will assume the lead role. Spiller clearly has major upside, but the coaching staff has been reluctant to use him. Jackson was productive in 2009 and seems the odds-on favorite to assume the lead back role until Spiller is ready to take over.
Both players shape up as flex plays at best, given that Buffalo has perhaps the worst offense in the league.
« Newer Posts — Older Posts »
| |
|
Powered by
WordPress |
|
|
