Bengals at Dolphins
- (Thorne)
Passing Game Thoughts: When your
quarterback only plays a few minutes into the fourth quarter something
either very good or very bad is going on; for Andy Dalton and
the Bengals everything was going right in week eight against the
Jets. He set a personal best with five touchdowns, four of which
went to WR Marvin Jones who set a team record for touchdown receptions
in a game. Through the air the Bengals have been one of the best
teams this season, ranking number seven in yards per game with
270. Marks for completion percentage (65.6) and touchdowns (16)
rank similarly well. Despite not scoring a touchdown, star WR
A.J. Green still totaled 115 yards on three receptions. Against
what was thought to be a good Jets defense, the Bengals offensive
line was nearly perfect allowing only one sack for two yards,
and gave Dalton enough time to pick apart any defensive coverage
he faced. The biggest knock on the third year quarterback has
been his apparent problems throwing the long ball, but after hooking
up with Green for two 50+ yard bombs it seems he may have a full
complement of NFL tools.
Losers of four straight, Miami has had a variety of individual
defensive problems but the theme which permeates all of their
defeats is inconsistency. The same defense that gave up 413 yards
and four TDs (no interceptions) to Drew Brees only gave up 116
yards and no TDs to Brady while also forcing an interception.
For the season, the Dolphins are worse than average in most every
passing defensive category except for touchdowns allowed. In general
they don’t give up big plays through the air but they’ve
been predominantly beaten on short to medium routes and slowly
picked apart pass by pass. The Bengals have traditionally been
just the type of team to exploit that type of defense, and with
the solid play from the O-line and the development of the deep
passing game it will be even more difficult for Miami to slow
down the methodical Cincinnati passing attack.
Running Game Thoughts: Despite having a hard running veteran and
a rookie who shows flashes of brilliance, the Bengals haven’t
run the ball with great authority in 2013, ranking just below
average in yards per game (99.8) and even closer to the bottom
in yards per attempt (3.6). They’ve largely relied on defense
and a strong passing game, as demonstrated in their most recent
victory where they rushed 25 times for 79 yards, failing to meet
even their own mediocre season averages. As has been the case
for the majority of the season, RB BenJarvis Green-Ellis has seen
the majority of the touches but Giovani Bernard has the better
average as the change of pace back. At the halfway point in the
season, the longest Bengals run has gone for 34 yards. Steady
production from the running game and being able to grind out a
few yards at a time is their formula.
On a short week of preparation the running game becomes more important.
While Miami isn’t good against the run they’re not
terrible, ranking just below the middle of the pack at 109.9 yards
per game. The seven rushing touchdowns they’ve surrendered
puts them in the bottom ten of the league, suggesting that in
the redzone and in short yardage situations they are not able
to get the defensive push they need to disrupt the offensive line
and stop the rush. The Bengals are largely a team that gains yardage
through quantity and not quality so the Dolphins may be in trouble
in this area since they haven’t been able to consistently
prevent their opponents from picking up yards on the ground. The
run game should feature a fairly even matchup.
Projections:
Andy Dalton: 290 yards passing, 2 TDs
BenJarvus Green-Ellis: 40 yards rushing
Giovani Bernard: 30 yards rushing / 20 yards receiving
A.J. Green: 100 yards receiving, 1 TD
Passing Game Thoughts: Week eight
against New England failed to reach even the underwhelming standards
the Dolphins have set for themselves up to this point in the season;
QB Ryan Tannehill committed three more turnovers (two interceptions
and one fumble), threw for fewer than 200 yards, and completed
just over 50% of his pass attempts. On top of that, the offensive
line gave up six sacks, bringing their season total to a league-worst
mark of 32, worse than four surrendered per game. On the bright
side, WR Mike Wallace was the team’s leading receiver, but
unfortunately he made only three catches on ten targets and recorded
just 41 yards, more than half of which came on one play. In the
Miami offense, the star receiver has at times disappeared from
the box score entirely and on more than one occasion has expressed
his displeasure about his role in the offense. The Dolphins will
continue to be limited by the inconsistencies of their O-line
which ultimately limits what they feel comfortable trying to do
on offense, especially in a passing game that is already lacking
an abundance of star talent.
News came out this week that Bengals CB Leon Hall was placed on
season ending Injured Reserve and while his presence will likely
be missed on the field, even without him last week the secondary
didn’t miss a beat. Hall missed week seven against the Jets
and rather than filling in his position with only one player Cincinnati
instead used a number of different players and a multitude of
different packages and schemes. That versatility displayed by
the defense is one of the reasons they give up only 225 yards
per game (11th best) through the air. In terms of yards gained
compared to passes attempted, only one team gives up fewer yards
than the Bengals, so even when passes are being completed against
them the yardage is minimal. Cincinnati’s defensive strength
matchups up well with the Dolphins passing game and would suggest
that the Bengals have a distinct advantage.
Running Game Thoughts: It’s the same song but a different
verse for the Dolphins and their offensive line issues. Some teams
are good at pass blocking but not at run blocking, or vice versa,
but Miami appears to be lacking in both of those areas. In the
same way that the O-line limits the production potential of Tannehill,
so too do they cap the upside or their running game. Despite the
explosive potential of the dynamic RB Lamar Miller the Dolphins
are in the bottom quarter of the league in average rushing yardage
and are just above the midpoint of the league in yards per carry.
Low yardage and reasonable averages mean they’re either
not running the ball enough to take advantage of the rushing opportunities
or that they’re running the ball during a point in the game
where the outcome has been determined. Even to fantasy players,
those garbage time carries are of minimal importance since Miller
only has two touchdowns on the entire season, both of which were
scored when the game was still relatively undecided. As a team,
Miami averages fewer than 90 rushing yards per game, so distributed
between two running backs, there isn’t much yardage to go
around and even fewer legitimate touchdown opportunities to bring
their fantasy owners any real value.
Cincinnati surrenders fewer than 100 rushing yards per game and
has given up only three touchdowns on the ground at the halfway
point of the season. On their current four game winning streak
they’ve given up 100+ rushing yards only once, and that
was to the Bills who rushed 32 times without a single rusher over
55 yards. That was also the closest game they’ve played
recently, needing an overtime field goal to win. If the Dolphins
want to reverse their own losing trend and bring the Bengals winning
streak to a close, they’ll need to run frequently and accumulate
yards through a large number of attempts. Cincinnati gives up
only 3.8 yards per rush, tied just outside of the top ten. Unless
the Miami offensive line sees a miraculous turn around during
this short work week, Miller and Thomas may be hard pressed to
break of big runs which limit their fantasy upside.
Projections:
Ryan Tannehill: 190 yards passing, 1 TD, 1 INT
Lamar Miller: 50 yards rushing
Mike Wallace: 50 yards receiving
Prediction: Bengals 27, Dolphins 20 ^ Top
Ravens @ Browns
- (Anderson)
Passing Game Thoughts: Coming off
a bye with two weeks to prepare for the Browns, Joe Flacco and
company look to get a passing game going that has been up and
down this season. The good news is that the Ravens offense may
be healthier this week than they have been all year, especially
with the extra week off. The bad news is that they must travel
to Cleveland to face one of the better defenses in the NFL. Currently
the Browns rank sixth in passing yards allowed per game, third
in sacks, and first in passing yards allowed per attempt. In the
previous meeting between these teams, in Week 2, the Ravens escaped
with a 14-6 victory in a mostly defensive battle. In that game
Flacco threw for just 211 yards (1 TD, 0 INT) but did a nice job
of spreading the ball around to eight different receivers and
did not turn it over. The difference for the Ravens between these
two games, besides being away this week, are that Jacoby Jones
will be playing in this game, wide receiver Marlon Brown has got
a lot more experience, and the Ravens have had extra time to prepare
for the Browns' elite defense. While these may be subtle difference,
look for them to mean an overall improvement in the Ravens passing
numbers.
Joe Flacco has been an up-and-down QB2 for fantasy purposes this
year, and while I like his chances of improving in the second
half, this is not shaping up to be one of his better games. I
see Flacco as a mid-level QB2 this week who should put up decent
yardage but will be hard-pressed to get many touchdowns. The Ravens'
best receiver, Torrey Smith is having his best year yet, and despite
probably seeing a lot of stud cornerback Joe Haden in this matchup,
should catch a few long passes (he’s the best in average
yards per catch in the NFL) to make him a reliable WR2 here. In
their first matchup Smith caught seven balls for 85 yards, and
I think that is attainable again this week. As for the rest of
the Ravens receivers, none have stepped up enough to be a safe
start in most fantasy leagues, as Flacco generally spreads the
ball around a lot and therefore the receivers all eat into each
others' fantasy values.
Running Game Thoughts: The Ravens
run game in general has been far below what most people expected,
both from a fantasy and real-world perspective. Ray Rice, a perennial
first-round fantasy pick, has been one of the bigger busts this
year, averaging just 2.8 yards per carry and being less involved
in the offense than perhaps ever in his career. Part of this has
been due to injury, part to game-plan, and part to bad blocking
or bad matchups, but Rice must be held accountable, too. The good
news, or at least the potentially good news, for Rice owners is
that he now claims to be healthy; with the bye week to heal up
Rice says his burst is finally back. Of course we must see it
to believe it, and the Ravens must give him the ball to let him
prove it before we start jumping back on the bandwagon.
While the Browns defense is solid, they are tougher in pass defense
than against the run, and the Ravens probably will look to exploit
this, especially playing in a road game. While Rice's numbers
may not be huge this game, I believe this will be a telling game
for him and the Ravens because, with an extra week to prepare
and get healthy and with a realization that they must get Rice
more involved, it will be time to put up or shut up. If Rice is
able to carry a larger load and do so efficiently, maybe we chalk
up the bad first half of the season to injury and bad luck and
get back on the train. If Rice continues to look slow and ineffective,
however, it may be time to jump ship and get what you can get
for him in a trade. While his first game against the Browns this
year was poor (13 car, 36 yds), I expect a bounce-back game for
Rice here—not quite at that RB1 level, but as a solid RB2
in a tough but not impossible matchup. Bernard Pierce continues
to be an excellent handcuff and occasional deep flex play in great
matchups, but this is not one of them, and he should be firmly
nailed to the bench this week.
Projections:
Joe
Flacco: 270 pass yds, 2 TDs, 1 INT
Torrey
Smith: 80 rec yds
Ray
Rice: 75 rush yds, 1 TD, 20 rec yds
Jacoby
Jones: 45 rec yds
Marlon
Brown: 45 rec yds
Bernard
Pierce: 20 rush yds, 15 rec yds
Passing Game Thoughts: While turning
to your third quarterback on the year is usually a bad sign for
most teams, quarterback Jason Campbell actually proved a lot of
the doubters wrong last week, nearly upsetting the heavily favored
and undefeated Chiefs. Campbell was efficient in throwing for
293 yards (2 TDs, 0 INT) and taking just one sack against one
of the league’s best defenses, and perhaps the best pass
rushing team in the NFL. Even better, Campbell helped to retain
the fantasy value of the Browns' two best weapons, wide receiver
Josh Gordon (5/132/1) and tight end Jordan Cameron (4/81/0), giving
fantasy owners a big sigh of relief that the Browns would not
totally collapse under their former third-string quarterbacks
leadership. Personally I’ve always thought Campbell was
a solid quarterback, he just had so many different offensive coordinators
in his career that he never seemed to be able to settle down.
While he is past his prime and nowhere near elite, he does have
a big arm and looks downfield a lot, which is exactly what this
offense calls for. As long as Campbell can continue to utilize
his two best playmakers, the Browns' season, at least from a fantasy
perspective, may be in good hands.
Speaking of his playmakers, Gordon continues to shine despite
the carousel at quarterback and should at the least be seen as
a solid, fairly matchup-proof WR2. Gordon was suspended the first
time these two teams met this year, so the Ravens' defensive backs
have only game tape to go off of. Gordon should continue to be
the team’s leading target receiver, and while the Ravens
defense is no pushover, it has let up the 13th most fantasy points
to opposing WRs this year, making him a solid WR2 again this week.
Cameron did play in the previous matchup and had a big one, putting
up 95 yards on five catches, both team highs. The Ravens have
actually been generous to opposing TEs this year, giving up the
seventh most fantasy points and thus making Cameron a solid TE1
option this week. While I like Campbell to help retain the value
of Cleveland’s receivers, his upside is not quite high enough
to make him anything more than a low-end QB2 right now unless
the matchup is amazing, and this one is not. Proceed with caution
if you are thinking about starting him. No other Browns passing
game player is worth a start this week, as the majority of targets
go to Gordon and Cameron and no other player is talented enough
to turn a few catches into big plays.
Running Game Thoughts: With one
of the least effective run units in the league, the Browns now
must face a Ravens run defense that has let up the eighth fewest
rush yards and just one rushing touchdown, best in the league.
The Browns lead runner, Willis McGahee, was expected to have some
rust when he was signed back in Week 3, but instead of loosening
up and contributing more as time went on, his production has stayed
about the same or gone down each week. Last week McGahee managed
just 28 yards on the ground (and no yards on two catches) and
lost touches in the second half to the Browns second- and third-string
running backs. On the year now McGahee is averaging just 2.9 yards
per carry despite having a decent line in front of him. It is
clear that he is on his last legs and that any fantasy owners
who grabbed him hoping to perhaps find a diamond are now holding
a lump of coal.
With the Ravens boasting the fourth toughest defense to opposing
fantasy RBs, even a better running back than McGahee may struggle.
But as one of the worst starting running backs in the game today,
McGahee should be nowhere near you starting lineup this week.
No other Browns running back is on the fantasy radar this week,
either, although deep PPR leaguers may want to keep Chris Ogbonnaya
stashed away because McGahee may lose his job soon, as the Browns
will soon look fully to the future, one of which McGahee is surely
not a part.
Projections:
Jason
Campbell: 280 pass yds, 2 TDs, 1 INT
Willis
McGahee: 35 rush yds
Josh
Gordon: 90 rec yds, 1 TD
Jordan
Cameron: 80 rec yds, 1 TD
Davone
Bess: 45 rec yds
Prediction: Ravens 20, Browns 17
^ Top
Bears @ Packers
- (Anderson)
Passing Game Thoughts: When a starting
quarterback goes down with an injury, the chances are good that
the whole offense will suffer under the control of the second-string
quarterback. While this is almost certainly the case for the Bears,
with Jay Cutler out and Josh McCown in, the effects may be felt
a little less thanks to an array of nice weapons and a quarterback-friendly
system and coach. Yes, it was against one of the league’s
worst pass defenses, the Redskins, but McCown stepped in admirably
two weeks ago when Cutler left with a groin injury, throwing for
204 yards (14/20, 1 TD, 0 INT) and just barely losing to the Skins
45-41. While McCown and company will face a tougher foe this week
in the Packers at Lambeau field, the extra week to prepare should
certainly help to alleviate the pressure that is certainly on
McCown and the 4-3 Bears. While it is tough to predict how a backup
quarterback with limited experience will fare in a starter’s
role, we do know for sure that McCown has four great weapons to
throw to in Brandon Marshall, Alshon Jeffery, Martellus Bennett,
and Matt Forte. Each of these players have had excellent starts
to the year, and with an extra week of practice, the chemistry
between McCown and his weapons has most likely improved.
As for the matchup, it is always tough to play in Green Bay, but
the Packers defense is not exactly the Steel Curtain. Thus far
they rank 21st in passing yards allowed per game, 23rd in passing
yards allowed per attempt, and are tied for last with just three
interceptions. The Packers have racked up 23 sacks on the year,
tied for 10th, but their best pass rusher, Clay Matthews, is still
out this week, so that is one thing going for the Bears. Fantasy-wise
the Packers are average in terms of letting up points to opposing
QBs (14th) and WRs (17th) and much more generous to TEs (3rd).
While it’s possible this game could turn into a shoot-out,
these division rivals usually play each other close, so I would
not expect the final stats to be anything ridiculous. While you
have to downgrade the entire offense with McCown under center,
I would certainly not abandon the best Chicago players simply
because a backup is playing quarterback. Marshall remains a WR1,
even if he is probably not a top five option, as he usually is.
Jeffery actually saw the most action from McCown two weeks ago,
and I think he will get enough targets this week to make him a
high-end WR3, with upside for a little more. Bennett has the best
fantasy matchup of all the Bears receivers, and while he only
caught one ball two weeks ago, he has been banged up and I expect
that the week off did him some good. He is a high-end TE2 this
week in a favorable matchup. As for McCown himself, I would be
hesitant to start him in many leagues, but with a decent amount
of teams on a bye week and a slightly above-average matchup, I
could see some value in him as a low- to mid-tier QB2.
Running Game Thoughts: Matt Forte
made his fantasy owners happy last time he played, scoring three
touchdowns and totaling over 100 yards against the Redskins. While
that touchdown number was fluky and likely a season high, Forte
remains the centerpiece in this offense thanks to his ability
to both run and catch the ball effectively and compete as a true
workhorse running back. There is both good and bad news for Forte
this week as he faces the Packers. On the bad side, the Packers
are a fairly strong run-defending team, ranking fourth in the
NFL in rushing yards allowed per game and among the 10 toughest
teams for opposing RBs to score fantasy points against. On the
good side of things, not only can Forte contribute in all phases
of the offense, but with Cutler out, the Bears may rely on him
even more than usual on runs and short passes in order to take
pressure off of McCown.
While the matchup means this will probably not be one of Forte’s
best games of the year, he should have the same workload, or likely
a bit more, meaning at worst case he will be a safe RB2, with
the upside of being a top 12 RB if he can sneak into the end-zone
a time or two. Forte will not carry your team this week but there
is no reason to be worried about him losing it for you either.
Projections:
Josh
McCown: 255 pass yds, 2 TDs, 1 INT, 10 rush yds
Brandon
Marshall: 80 rec yds, 1 TD
Matt
Forte: 70 rush yds, 1 TD, 30 rec yds
Martellus
Bennett: 50 rec yds, 1 TD
Alshon
Jeffery: 70 rec yds
Passing Game Thoughts: Make no mistake
about it, the Packers are worse off without Randall Cobb, James
Jones, and Jermichael Finley, all expected to be out again this
week. But as long as Aaron Rodgers is under center, this team
will compete and continue to make fantasy owners happy. Last week
against the Vikings, one of the NFL’s worst defenses, the
Packers were able to go to a run-heavy attack and run the clock
down in what was basically a blowout, despite their winning by
only 13 points. Despite running more than usual and being without
three of their key players, the Packers passing game was on fire,
with Rodgers completing 24 of his 29 passes for 285 yards and
two touchdowns. The main recipient of these numbers was Jordy
Nelson, who caught two touchdowns and racked up 123 yards on seven
catches. Receiver Jarrett Boykin also contributed nicely with
five catches for 89 yards and has now compiled 13 catches for
192 yards and a touchdown the past two games, starting in place
of James Jones.
While the Bears usually provide the Packers with tough division-rivalry
games, the numbers easily favor the Packers passing offense compared
to the Bears defense. Thus far the Bears rank fifth worst in passing
yards allowed per game, sixth worst in completion percentage allowed,
and dead last in sacks registered. This type of defense against
just an average passing team would make offenses drool, but against
the Packers and Rodgers it is an absolute dream matchup. While
the Bears' pride in playing a division rival should help keep
this game from getting too far away, there is no way I’m
benching any of the Packers' main players, and in fact, they all
get a boost here. Rodgers is an easy QB1 this week and certainly
in my top three at QB. Nelson is also an easy WR1 against a Bears
secondary that let Antonio Brown (a less talented receiver in
my eyes) go for 196 yards and two touchdowns a few weeks back.
Boykin, who is making just his third start and would usually be
a decent WR3 in many matchups, gets a boost to become a low-end
WR2 in this game, as Rodgers has shown a high level of trust in
him despite lack of experience. The only other guy I would consider
this week for the Packers would be Myles White, perhaps as a deep
league flex guy, who may be a lottery-ticket boom-or-bust for
a fantasy team desperate for a win. While missing some of their
key weapons puts a damper on the number of quality players you
can start from the Packers, it certainly does not hurt the quality
you should get from their remaining key guys.
Running Game Thoughts: While running
back Eddie Lacy is not flashy and is not putting up a lot of scores
or highlight-reel plays, he is something that is perhaps more
valuable to fantasy owners: consistent. Lacy now has three straight
weeks of 20 or more carries and 80-plus yards, adding a touchdown
each of the past two weeks. In addition, his involvement in the
passing game has improved, and it is clear that the Packers have
faith in him as a workhorse. With an elite passing game behind
him, Lacy has an excellent chance to contribute every game and
see lots of holes in defenses that are more focused on slowing
down a Pro-Bowl quarterback rather than a rookie running back.
Other than absolute nightmare matchups, the only things keeping
Lacy from being an every-week RB1 is the pass-heavy game plan
the Packers use and the presence of James Starks, who the Packers
like to use in a change-of-pace role (57 yards on seven carries
last week).
The good news for Lacy this week is that the Bears are giving
up the fifth most fantasy points to opposing RBs and have allowed
117 yards on the ground per game (25th in the NFL). While Lacy
may lose a few touches to Starks and won't compile many catches
the way some higher profile fantasy RBs do, there is little reason
to believe his streak of 20 or more carries will end this week.
For that reason alone I like Lacy as a high-end RB2, and perhaps
a low-end RB1 considering that a fair amount of teams are on a
bye week. While Starks had a nice performance last week in limited
action, owners would really be reaching to start him this week
as anything more than a low-end flex play, as it is hard to see
why the Packers would mess with what is working, and that is feeding
Lacy the ball on a majority of run plays.
Projections:
Aaron
Rodgers: 320 pass yds, 3 TDs, 1 INT, 10 rush yds
Eddie
Lacy: 100 rush yds, 15 rec yds
Jordy
Nelson: 130 rec yds, 1 TD
Jarrett
Boykin: 70 rec yds, 1 TD
Myles
White: 55 rec yds
James
Starks: 35 rush yds, 10 rec yds
Prediction: Packers 33, Bears 27
^ Top
Falcons at Panthers
- (Smith)
Passing Game Thoughts: With Julio
Jones out and Roddy White unavailable last week against Arizona,
Atlanta wideout Harry Douglas was the receiver in the spotlight,
being targeted 18 times and catching 12 passes for 121 yards.
Quarterback Matt Ryan struggled though, and despite throwing for
more than 300 yards, was intercepted four times. White may be
out again this week which should mean another target-heavy day
for Douglas and continued production for Drew Davis and Darius
Johnson. I’d like to tell fantasy owners that Tony Gonzalez
will have a big impact with White out but he’s been mediocre
too often this season with only two games of at least 40 receiving
yards. And facing the stout Panthers pass defense could mean limited
fantasy production out of the Falcons passing game.
Carolina has been very good defending the pass this season and
are tied for ninth in the league in pass defense. They are tied
with two other teams for second-fewest touchdown passes allowed,
are tied for 10th in interceptions and tied for 12th in sacks.
The Panthers have yet to allow a quarterback to throw multiple
touchdown passes in a game, and they are allowing the third-fewest
FPTs/G to QBs while also holding WRs to the sixth-fewest FPTs/G
and tight ends to the 11th-fewest FPTs/G.
Running Game Thoughts: The return
of Steven Jackson was supposed to mean good things for the Falcons
running attack but his return last week was a dud for fantasy
owners. He carried the ball 11 times and gained a measly six yards
while adding seven yards on three catches. Atlanta was forced
to throw after getting behind in their loss to Arizona, but Jackson
still wasn’t utilized enough. I expect a heavier dose of
the brutish back this week, but I’m not encouraged enough
to recommend him as more than a flex play against Carolina’s
rush defense.
While the Panthers have been very good against the pass this season,
they’ve been great against the run. Only the Jets are allowing
fewer rushing yards per game, only the Ravens have surrendered
fewer rushing scores and Carolina is yielding the seventh-lowest
YPC average. No back has run for more than 62 yards against the
Panthers since Week 2, but in part because they have given up
the seventh-most receiving yards to RBs, they are tied for ninth-fewest
FPTs/G allowed to players at that position instead of closer to
the top.
Projections:
Matt
Ryan: 240 pass yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
Harry
Douglas: 95 rec yds, 1 TD
Tony
Gonzalez: 60 rec yds
Drew
Davis: 40 rec yds
Darius
Johnson: 35 rec yds
Roddy
White: 10 rec yds
Steven
Jackson: 40 rush yds, 1 TD, 15 rec yds
Jacquizz
Rodgers: 25 rush yds, 20 rec yds
Passing Game Thoughts: The Panthers
have scored 30 or more points in three consecutive games and it’s
no surprise those points have coincided with Cam Newton not turning
it over. He hasn’t thrown an interception in any of those
games, and has risen up the fantasy ranks with six passing scores
and two rushing scores during that time. The team still struggles
to produce fantasy-worthy players at the pass-catching positions,
with no wideout among the top-35 in FPTs/G and Greg Olsen ranking
17th in FPTs/G at tight end. Yet, I love Newton and would put
Brandon LaFell and Steve Smith in my lineup this week against
the Falcons’ poor pass defense.
The Atlanta defense has been shredded at times against the pass.
Every quarterback they’ve faced has thrown at least two
touchdown passes and the Falcons defense is tied for second-to-last
in touchdown throws allowed. They are 22nd in pass defense, 26th
in completion percentage allowed, tied for 25th in interceptions,
and tied for 22nd in sacks. Atlanta is ninth in FPTs/G given up
to QBs and 16th in FPTs/G surrendered to TEs, but is allowing
the third-most FPTs/G in the league to WRs.
Running Game Thoughts: Jonathan
Stewart has still not been cleared to play as of this writing,
but he may indeed go this week. If he does not, the team will
continue to go with the triumvirate of Newton, DeAngelo Williams,
and Mike Tolbert. Williams scored for the first time last week
and Tolbert caught his second touchdown pass of the season, which
was his fifth score in five games. He remains the better fantasy
option than Williams for that reason but his fantasy numbers will
take a hit with the return of Stewart. Atlanta gives up lots of
rush yards but not many rush scores, so I’m not inclined
to go with any Carolina runner this week.
Though the Falcons are tied for sixth-fewest rushing scores surrendered,
fantasy owners shouldn’t be fooled – this team gets
run on plenty. Atlanta is 22nd in run defense and 27th in YPC
allowed this season and only five teams have given up more rushing
yards to running backs than they have. Yet because teams score
touchdowns through the air against the Falcons, they are directly
in the middle of the pack – tied for 16th – in FPTs/G
allowed to RBs.
Projections:
Cam
Newton: 265 pass yds, 2 TD, 1 INT, 35 rush yds, 1 TD
Brandon
LaFell: 80 rec yds, 1 TD
Steve
Smith: 70 rec yds, 1 TD
Greg
Olsen: 45 rec yds
Ted
Ginn, Jr.: 25 rec yds
DeAngelo
Williams: 55 rush yds, 15 rec yds
Mike
Tolbert: 35 rush yds, 20 rec yds
Jonathan
Stewart: 20 rush yds
Prediction: Panthers 27, Falcons
20 ^ Top
Colts at Texans
- (Smith)
Passing Game Thoughts: Life without
Reggie Wayne begins for Andrew Luck and the Colts this week, and
how it plays out remains to be seen. As it stands now, some form
of LaVon Brazill, Griff Whalen, and David Reed will attempt to
become the team’s third receiver with T.Y. Hilton and Darrius
Heyward-Bey the team’s top two wideouts. Wayne scored only
twice this year but he led the team in targets, receptions, yards,
and first downs, so his absence will be felt. Wayne being gone
also means a probable bump in production – and thus fantasy
status – for Hilton and tight end Coby Fleener, starting
this week against Houston.
The Texans may be underachieving as a team but they remain a tough
team for opposing players to pile up big numbers on. They have
the top-ranked pass defense in the NFL and are tied for 10th in
touchdowns allowed, though they are also tied for fewest interceptions
gathered. Still, Houston has allowed just one quarterback to throw
for more than 200 yards and have given up the third-fewest FPTs/G
to players at that position. No team has yielded fewer receiving
yards or FPTs/G to WRs than the Texans, and while they’ve
allowed the ninth-fewest FPTs/G to TEs, only the Raiders have
surrendered fewer receiving yards to them.
Running Game Thoughts: Trent Richardson
has continued his underwhelming career in the Indianapolis backfield,
failing to run for more than 60 yards in his five games with the
team and catching only two passes. Among players with at least
100 carries this season, only BenJarvus Green-Ellis is averaging
fewer FPTs/G. Richardson does have a good match-up this week.
The Texans haven’t stop the run much, especially lately,
and that makes Richardson a flex play or low-end RB2.
Houston may be stymieing teams who attempt to throw but they can’t
say the same about teams who run the ball on them. The Texans
rank 28th in run defense, 20th in YPC allowed, and are tied for
18th in rushing scores surrendered. They have allowed a running
back to gain 75 or more yards in five of their last six games
and are giving up the 14th-most FPTs/G in the NFL to RBs.
Projections:
Andrew
Luck: 245 pass yds, 2 TD, 2 INT, 20 rush yds
T.Y.
Hilton: 65 rec yds, 1 TD
Coby
Fleener: 55 rec yds, 1 TD
Darrius
Heyward-Bey: 40 rec yds
LaVon
Brazill: 25 rec yds
Griff Whalen: 15 rec yds
David
Reed: 10 rec yds
Trent
Richardson: 55 rush yds, 1 TD, 15 rec yds
Donald
Brown: 15 rush yds, 10 rec yds
Passing Game Thoughts: Matt Schaub
is apparently healthy enough to play, but Houston will continue
to start Case Keenum at quarterback as they did two weeks ago
(with a bye in between) against Kansas City. Keenum threw for
271 yards and a score without an interception against one of the
best defenses in the NFL. His performance was encouraging, though
not enough for fantasy owners to rush out and claim him. His top
target remains Andre Johnson, who is still without a touchdown
catch this season, though you have to believe that will change,
especially with the team’s running backs being banged up.
I like Johnson to finally find the end zone this week against
an Indy pass defense that has been good this season, but can also
be exploited.
The Colts are 13th in pass defense, tied for 15th in sacks, tied
for 13th in interceptions, are eighth in completion percentage
allowed, and tied for fifth-fewest touchdown passes surrendered.
They allowed Peyton Manning to have a huge game in Week 7 (hey,
who doesn’t?), and they are currently giving up the 14th-fewest
FPTs/G to QBs after ranking higher early in the season. Indy’s
struggles against the Denver receiving corps also hurt their overall
fantasy defensive numbers and saw them drop to 14th-most FPTs/G
allowed to WRs this year. Yet they remain solid against TEs, and
are giving up the 10th-fewest FPTs/G to players at that position.
Running Game Thoughts: Both Arian
Foster and Ben Tate are officially questionable for this week’s
game, though we would expect each to suit up. Foster simply hasn’t
gotten it done enough for fantasy owners this season, scoring
only once on the ground and ranking 11th in FPTs/G among running
backs. He still picks up plenty of total yards, however, and I
would start him against the Colts with a double-digit point expectation
in yards alone.
Stopping the run has not been the forte of Indianapolis this season
– anything but. They have the fourth-worst run defense in
the league, are tied for 12th in rushing scores allowed, and are
26th in YPC surrendered. The caveat is, that 30 percent of the
rushing yards Indy has given up have come from players who are
not running backs. The Colts have actually been solid against
backs this year, having allowed the 10th-fewest rushing yards
and eighth-fewest FPTs/G to RBs.
Projections:
Case
Keenum: 265 pass yds, 1 TD, 2 INT
Andre
Johnson: 80 rec yds, 1 TD
DeAndre
Hopkins: 50 rec yds
Garrett
Graham: 40 rec yds
DeVier
Posey: 25 rec yds
Lestar
Jean: 15 rec yds
Arian
Foster: 70 rush yds, 1 TD, 35 rec yds
Ben
Tate: 30 rush yds, 10 rec yds
Prediction: Colts 27, Texans 17
^ Top
Titans @ Rams
- (Caron)
Passing Game Thoughts: After missing
Weeks 5 and 6 due to an injury, Tennessee Titans quarterback Jake
Locker returned in Week 7 and got right back to being the productive
fantasy QB we had seen through the first half of the season. Locker
threw for a season-high 329 yards against a very good San Francisco
defense. He also added 29 yards on the ground; his second highest
rushing total of the year. Although he threw his first interception
of the season, Locker also threw two touchdowns in the win, bringing
his season total to eight scores in five games. Tight end Delanie
Walker is coming off of the best fantasy day of his tenure in
Tennessee as he caught three passes for 52 yards and a touchdown.
Although Walker has been disappointing as a threat in the passing
game, it does seem as if the Titans are beginning to work him
into the offense a bit more. He has been targeted at least five
times in three straight contests. Receiver Nate Washington also
got back into fantasy consideration with the return of Locker.
In the two games without Locker, Washington caught just four passes
for 45 yards. Though his three catches for 62 yards line in Week
7 doesn’t exactly jump off the page, it does look decent
when you consider that he was coming off back-to-back 100-yard
receiving performances with Locker behind center. Washington remains
as a low-end WR3 or FLEX play but he does have some value in this
offense. Kendall Wright also looked good this past week when he
caught a season-high nine passes for 98 yards. Although he has
not yet eclipsed the 100-yard mark in 2013, Wright has been one
of the most consistent producers in the league, particularly in
PPR formats. He has not had fewer than five receptions since Week
1 and seems to be in line for another nice game against a St.
Louis defense that is coming off of a disappointing loss on Monday
night to the Seahawks.
St. Louis’ secondary has played significantly better in
recent weeks than they did to start the season, but that could
be due to the less-than-stellar play at quarterback from their
past three opponents; Seattle, Carolina and Houston. The Rams
had allowed multiple passing touchdowns in each of their first
five games this season prior to holding their past three opponents
to a total of just three passing touchdowns. It’s hard to
be extremely optimistic about anyone in the Tennessee offense,
but there are a few potential bye-week fill-ins here.
Running Game Thoughts: There’s no question that it has
been an extremely disappointing first half of the season for fantasy
owners of Tennessee running back Chris Johnson. A former 2,000-yard
rusher just a few years ago, Johnson has descended to the level
of barely being a fantasy consideration in most scoring formats.
After seven games, Johnson has still failed to reach 100 yards
on the ground or score a single rushing touchdown. With Jackie
Battle on the roster, Johnson has been pulled out of the game
near the goal line...and it could be getting worse this week with
the expected return of the team’s original goal line back,
Shonn Greene. With the Titans beginning to focus more on the passing
game and the backfield situation in flux, it appears on the surface
that Johnson may finish with his worst fantasy production as a
pro this season.
Are better days actually on the horizon? Perhaps. If there’s
going to be a time for “CJ2K” to break out, it might
be this week against a St. Louis defense that has been absolutely
thrashed by opposing backs. St. Louis has given up nine or more
fantasy points (standard scoring) to opposing running backs in
six of their first seven games this season. Some may point to
the success that St. Louis had in holding Marshawn Lynch to just
23 yards on the ground a week ago, but history tells us that their
play in that contest is more of a mirage than it is a trend. It’s
hard to trust Chris Johnson at this point as his only real fantasy
production all year has come on two lucky dump-off passes that
went for long touchdowns, but given the number of teams on byes,
it’s going to be tough not to put him in your lineup.
Projections:
Jake Locker: 240 pass yds, 2 TD, 20 rush yds
Chris Johnson: 70 rush yds, 15 rec yds
Shonn Greene: 40 rush yds, 1 TD
Kendall Wright: 80 rec yds
Nate Washington: 60 rec yds, 1 TD
Delanie Walker: 45 rec yds, 1 TD
Passing
Game Thoughts: You get the feeling that St. Louis might
have been able to pull of the upset over Seattle this past Monday
night if they just had somewhat decent quarterback play. Kellen
Clemens did his best in his first game, and to his credit, didn’t
necessarily lose the game on his own. But his 15/31, 158 yards,
two interception performance certainly wasn’t good enough
to win it, either. With Sam Bradford on the IR and the trade deadline
having passed earlier this week, Clemens is likely as good as
it’s going to get for this team. Unfortunately that probably
means a significant downgrade in the overall fantasy value of
just about every player in the St. Louis offense...and most of
them didn’t have a whole lot of value to begin with. No
St. Louis receiver caught more than four passes (Chris Givens,
4-59) from Clemens in Week 8 and no one was targeted more than
six times. This receiver group was wildly inconsistent to begin
with and unless Clemens starts keying in on a single target, it’s
unlikely that any of them are going to be serious fantasy considerations
going forward.
After a tough matchup against the Seahawks, things don’t
get much better for Clemens and co. this week as they host Tennessee
and their fifth-ranked fantasy defense against opposing quarterbacks.
The Titans have not allowed a passing touchdown in three straight
contests and they’ve allowed only one passing touchdown
each in three of their previous four games. Although they have
given up some decent rushing production to opposing QB’s
in recent weeks, Clemens isn’t exactly the most mobile signal
caller and shouldn’t be relied on as anything other than
a low-end QB2 this week.
Running Game Thoughts: Being without Steven Jackson has been
a tough transition for the St. Louis Rams. They’ve been
playing a game of musical chairs all season with the likes of
Daryl Richardson, Isaiah Pead and Benny Cunningham getting work.
But it seems that they may have finally found some spark in the
running game with rookie tailback Zac Stacy. Stacy took 26 carries
for 134 yards and on Monday night. Not only was the performance
St. Louis’ first 100-yard rushing day of the season, but
it was the first time that any back had even been over 80 yards
on the ground. What made Stacy’s night even more impressive
was that it happened against a very good Seattle Seahawks defense
that had allowed just 58 yards on the ground in their previous
two games combined. Better yet, it wasn’t just a lucky long
run that gave Stacy his nice stat line. 90 of the 134 yards came
after contact, proving that he was running very hard.
Stacy did get pulled late from Monday night’s game due
to an injury and had missed practice early this week, but was
back on the field on Thursday and should be good to go in fantasy
lineups against a Tennessee defense that is allowing the eight-most
fantasy points to opposing running backs this season. Tennessee
has allowed over 125 total yards to opposing running backs in
six straight games and has been beaten up for five touchdowns
by the position over their past three games alone. He may not
be a sexy name or in a great offense but Zac Stacy is worthy of
serious fantasy consideration this week. He’s bound to get
near 20 total touches and any player who gets that kind of work
has the potential for a very nice day.
Projections:
Kellen Clemens: 190 pass yds, 1 TD, 2 INT
Zac Stacy: 80 rush yds, 1 TD, 20 rec yds
Chris Givens: 40 rec yds
Austin Pettis: 30 rec yds, 1 TD
Tavon Austin: 30 rec yds
Jared Cook: 30 rec yds
Lance Kendricks: 25 rec yds
Prediction: Tennessee 24, St.
Louis 20 ^ Top
Eagles @ Raiders
- (Caron)
Passing Game Thoughts: Quarterback
Michael Vick will be out again with a hamstring injury as the
Eagles head to Oakland to battle the Raiders. It is believed that
Nick Foles will be back after missing Week 8 with concussion symptoms,
which will be a nice upgrade from the bad performance we saw a
week ago from rookie QB Matt Barkley. Foles was coming off of
back-to-back multi-touchdown games prior to the concussion, but
the Eagles offense has certainly sputtered in recent weeks since
its hot start at the beginning of the year. Some would argue that
it’s simply a case of opposing defenses getting some tape
of this unique offense, but there’s also a school of thought
that would say the offense is struggling in part because opposing
defenses are no longer worried about the quarterback running the
ball with Vick standing on the sidelines. Still, Foles’
six touchdowns and zero interceptions have been a nice improvement
at least in terms of ball security and thus Foles has actually
been a quality fantasy option when healthy. Wide receiver DeSean
Jackson has been his usual hot-and-cold self this season, but
his overall production has made him one of the best fantasy receiving
options in the league so far. The last time he got to play full
games with Foles back in Weeks 5 and 6, he caught a total of 13
passes for 196 yards and three touchdowns. He is one of the few
players whose production is not likely to see a significant drop-off
without Vick.
Oakland has been about middle-of-the-pack against opposing quarterbacks
this season. Although they performed fairly well against Ben Roethlisberger
and the Steelers a week ago when they forced two interceptions
and allowed only one touchdown, they haven’t performed quite
so well in most contests. They’ve failed to record a single
interception in five of their first seven games, while allowing
double-digit fantasy totals to every quarterback they’ve
faced, except one (Alex Smith). Foles is probably still a QB2
in most leagues until we see that he is fully recovered but you
could do worse if you’re in a bind. The only other player
in this passing game who should be a real fantasy consideration
would be DeSean Jackson. The Raiders have allowed at least one
touchdown to an opposing receiver in four of their past five contests
and Jackson looks to be a good bet to make it five of six.
Running Game Thoughts: After starting the season extremely hot
as one of the top running backs in the league, Eagles tailback
LeSean McCoy has trailed off in recent weeks. In his past two
games, McCoy has totaled just 103 total rushing yards while adding
43 yards as a receiver. What’s been most frustrating for
fantasy owners, is that McCoy hasn’t scored since Week 5
due to the Eagles struggling to move the ball as a team. Of course
“Shady” is still an obvious RB1 against most opponents,
but there is some concern that if Foles isn’t fully recovered
from his concussion, that McCoy may not have the opportunities
he otherwise would, especially in the redzone.
Thankfully he does have a fairly soft matchup against an Oakland
run defense that has struggled to slow down opposing running backs
as of late. The Raiders have allowed 12 or more fantasy points
(standard scoring) to opposing teams’ running backs in five
straight contests, including three games when they’ve allowed
20 or more fantasy points to the position during that stretch.
One area where the Raiders have had problems slowing down opposing
backs is in the passing game. They’ve allowed a total of
25 receptions for 175 yards and a touchdown in their past three
games. McCoy is one of the better threats in the league as a receiver
out of the backfield and could have additional value this week,
especially in PPR formats. Fantasy owners might be a little disappointed
in McCoy due to his lack of touchdowns as of late, but there’s
a good chance he turns that around here against the Raiders. Don’t
get cute. Keep him in your lineup until otherwise noted.
Projections:
Nick Foles: 255 pass yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
LeSean McCoy: 80 rush yds, 1 TD, 50 rec yds
DeSean Jackson: 80 rec yds, 1 TD
Riley Cooper: 40 rec yds
Jason Avant: 30 rec yds
Passing
Game Thoughts: Third-year quarterback Terrelle Pryor led
his Raiders to a huge win over the Steelers in Week 8. More importantly,
his fantasy owners had to be at least satisfied with his final
point total against a tough Pittsburgh defense. Pryor continued
his solid fantasy production on the year with his 15-point performance.
That game extended his streak of double-digit fantasy totals to
six starts in a row. While the final totals were fine from a fantasy
standpoint, those who watched the game would likely tell you that
Pryor’s Week 8 game was his worst of the season, particularly
from a passing standpoint. He’s not known as one of the
most accurate passers in the game, but Pryor was especially bad
against the Steelers. He was just 10/19 for 88 yards, no touchdowns
and two interceptions as a passer. He made up for it on the ground
as Pryor ran the ball nine times for 106 yards and his first rushing
touchdown of the year. Pryor’s speed and athleticism is
undeniable. But his inconsistency as a passer has made him a dangerous
fantasy quarterback. If an opposing defense decides to take away
his running lanes, we have not yet seen him show an ability to
take over a game with his arm.
Pryor has now thrown five interceptions with only one touchdown
pass over his past two games, but things do get a little easier
this week as they host a Philadelphia defense that has conceded
at least 12 fantasy points (standard scoring) to quarterbacks
in seven of their eight games this season. They’ve also
allowed multiple passing touchdowns in five of those contests.
While the Eagles have done a good job of slowing down opposing
quarterbacks as runners, the truth is that the only highly athletic
QB they’ve played all year is Robert Griffin III and that
was all the way back in Week 1. Receivers Rod Streater and Denarius
Moore have been predictably tough to rely on from a fantasy standpoint
and that obviously continued this past week with Pryor’s
88-yard passing day. Moore was held to just two receptions for
32 yards while Streater checked in with four receptions for 45
yards. For Streater, it was his sixth game of three-plus receptions
and 40-plus yards this year, but he has not gone over 70 yards
in any game and has only one total touchdown on the year. Moore,
on the other hand, has been very productive this season. Prior
to his ugly Week 8 performance, Moore had been on a great stretch
where he had averaged 89 yards per game and scored three total
touchdowns over his previous four contests. Pryor is a consideration
as a low-end starter this week while Moore should probably be
in most lineups against an Eagles defense that has allowed the
second-most fantasy points per game to opposing receivers in 2013.
Streater is a bargain-basement option but does have some value
in PPR formats.
Running Game Thoughts: Although he averaged fewer than 3.0 yards
per carry in Week 8, fantasy owners were ecstatic to see Raiders
running back Darren McFadden get on the fantasy board with a nice
two-touchdown performance against a tough Pittsburgh defense that
hadn’t allowed a running back to score in either of their
previous two games. As has been the case throughout most of his
career, McFadden has battled the injury bug in 2013. He missed
most of Week 4 and all of Week 5, but has stayed healthy since
the team’s bye. Unfortunately he has lacked the explosiveness
that has made him such a huge fantasy asset in seasons past and
originally made him a top-10 pick in the NFL Draft.
McFadden will look to pick up where he left off last week as
he goes up against the Eagles and their 12th-ranked fantasy defense
against opposing running backs. Philadelphia has done well when
it comes to slowing down opposing runners in recent weeks, having
allowed only one touchdown to the position over their past three
games. Truthfully, though, they have not had the toughest schedule
during that span, as they went up against the incompetent Tampa
Bay offense, a DeMarco Murray-less Cowboys offense and a Giants
offense led by Peyton Hillis. Earlier this season, the Eagles
were exploited by the Chargers, Chiefs and Broncos running backs
in three straight contests. They allowed 537 total yards and two
touchdowns to opposing running backs during that stretch, which
could mean good things for Pryor, McFadden and the Raiders who
have used the read-option to catch defenses off guard and get
their running game going in recent weeks. It’s always risky
to trust McFadden, but after trusting him to take 24 carries a
week ago, apparently the Raiders coaching staff believes in their
running back. If he can touch the ball even 15 times, as he should
in this one, McFadden has to be in all fantasy lineups.
Projections:
Terrelle Pryor: 215 pass yds, 1 TD, 1 INT, 60 rush yds
Darren McFadden: 65 rush yds, 1 TD, 25 rec yds
Denarius Moore: 70 rec yds, 1 TD
Rod Streater: 50 rec yds
Prediction: Raiders 23, Eagles
20 ^ Top
Buccaneers @ Seahawks
- (Caron)
Passing Game Thoughts: It’s
now well known that rookie quarterback Mike Glennon has thrown
more passes in his first four starts than any other quarterback
in NFL history. That’s what happens when your team is 0-8
and not very competitive in most games. Without Doug Martin, the
team has had to rely heavily on the passing game, even if it hasn’t
been very efficient. Glennon threw the ball 51 times a week ago
but the Bucs got just 13 points to show for it. With all the passing,
receiver Vincent Jackson has now been targeted more than any other
receiver in the league this season. He could end up seeing more
coverage coming his way with Mike Williams (hamstring) out, but
Jackson is the kind of player who can beat double coverage using
his superior size and strength. Look for Jackson to continue getting
plenty of targets which makes him very difficult to sit. Even
if he only catches half of the passes that go his way, he has
the potential to be a top-10 receiving option.
Jackson hasn’t been the only player who has been seeing
an uptick in usage in the offense. Quietly, tight end Tim Wright
has been getting a lot of action and may be developing into a
decent fantasy option. Wright has caught 19 passes over his past
four games, including his first career touchdown reception this
past week. With Williams out, Wright has an opportunity to step
up and become the defacto “WR2” in the Tampa offense,
even if it is from the tight end position. Certainly the Buccaneers
are going to be offensively challenged which limits the potential
of individual players, but with the team passing as much as they
are, Jackson is an obvious starter in most fantasy lineups. Wright
and Glennon could be nice bye-week fill-ins as we take an additional
week to examine them before anointing them as fantasy starters.
Running Game Thoughts: With former first round NFL Draft pick
and 2013 consensus top five draft pick Doug Martin on the sidelines
with a torn labrum, it’s not too surprising that the Tampa
Bay Buccaneers have leaned away from their running game in recent
weeks. Mike James has taken over as the team’s starting
running back and instantly became one of fantasy football’s
hottest waiver wire acquisitions, but has been less than spectacular
in his limited work. James has rushed for just 84 yards in two
games, including an ugly 39-yard performance against the Bucs’
division rival Panthers a week ago. Although he has been utilized
some in the passing game with seven receptions during that span,
he just hasn’t shown much to warrant the excitement that
fantasy owners had when they picked him up. James has averaged
fewer than 3.0 yards per carry and given how bad the Buccaneers
are, it’s seems unlikely that he will suddenly see that
number shoot up. Worse yet, with the Bucs losing games by so many
points, it’s hard for them to commit to the run at all in
the second half.
There have been reports that Doug Martin is feeling better and
could be back in coming weeks, but with the Bucs already out of
realistic playoff consideration, the team may just end up shutting
him down to avoid furthering the injury. Either way, James does
remain the team’s primary ball carrier without any real
second option in the stable, he should be good for between 10-15
touches per week. This week Tampa has a very tough situation as
they head to Seattle to play one of the NFL’s best defenses
in the league’s most difficult stadium to win in. James
will get some touches, but this isn’t likely to be a close
enough game for him to have a real breakout performance. If you
can make use of 50 or so yards and a couple catches, then James
should be in your lineup. Otherwise look elsewhere for higher
upside in Week 9.
Projections:
Mike Glennon: 190 pass yds, 1 TD, 2 INT
Mike James: 50 rush yds, 15 rec yds
Vincent Jackson: 70 rec yds, 1 TD
Tim Wright: 60 rec yds
Passing
Game Thoughts: It’s hard for fans to complain when
the Seahawks are winning games by double digits, but Seattle’s
near loss to the Rams in Week 8 has to bring some concern to those
who previously viewed this team as unbeatable in the NFC West.
The lack of passing production from Russell Wilson has been disappointing.
Sure, the team is still winning games and he’s even thrown
13 touchdowns at the halfway point this season, but the yardage
simply hasn’t been there. After his 139-yard performance
against the Rams a week ago, the second-year quarterback has now
failed to reach even 150 passing yards in three of his eight games.
Perhaps worse yet, he hasn’t gone over 260 yards through
the air since Week 1. Where Wilson has seemed to struggle most
is when opposing teams send the blitz. He was continually pressured
by the Rams’ front seven and he ended up completing just
4 of his 16 pass attempts against the blitz in Week 8. One player
who has been a decent fantasy contributor despite the lack of
production from Wilson is receiver Golden Tate. Tate has caught
19 passes in his past four games, including three touchdown receptions
during that span. With fellow receiver Sidney Rice now out with
an ACL tear and Percy Harvin still on the sidelines, Tate could
see his role increase in the Seattle offense. Another player who
could see increased playing time is Doug Baldwin, who has been
an afterthought within the Seattle offense in recent weeks. We’ve
seen him produce in the past but Baldwin simply hasn’t done
much over the past couple of seasons. He’s not a must-add
at this point by any means, but Baldwin is a player who fantasy
owners should keep an eye on this week. If he can get things going,
he could be a sneaky play down the stretch. With the Buccaneers
unlikely to keep this game very close, it wouldn’t be surprising
to see Wilson come out of the game with another “okay, not
great” fantasy day. Golden Tate is worth consideration as
a low-end WR2, while no other player in the passing game is worth
any serious fantasy consideration.
Running Game Thoughts: Owners of Seattle running back Marshawn
Lynch were licking their chops a week ago when their first round
fantasy pick had what should have been one of his juiciest matchups
of the season. Lynch had absolutely terrorized the Rams in recent
years and St. Louis was one of the league’s worst run defenses
coming into the game...but sometimes things just don’t work
out how they “should” on paper. A bizarre coaching
decision led to Marshawn Lynch taking only eight carries on the
night, which he took for just 23 yards. Certainly a less-than-3.0-yards-per-carry
average is not good, but the coaching staff has seen Lynch start
off slow in the past, only to completely pummel the opposition
in the waning minutes of the game. Given how often Wilson was
getting hit when he tried to throw, it would have been wise to
give Lynch some additional touches, but that just didn’t
happen.
If there’s ever been a time to “make up” a
lack of touches to a running back, it could be this week as Lynch
and the Seahawks host a Tampa Bay team that hasn’t won a
single game this season. Tampa has been surprisingly decent against
the run, having allowed only one rushing touchdown, but that doesn’t
tell the whole story. With games against the Jets, Patriots, Saints,
Cardinals, Falcons and Panthers, the only top-level running back
they’ve faced is LeSean McCoy; who embarrassed them to the
tune of 171 total yards. Prior to his baffling lack of carries
in Week 8, Lynch had taken at least 17 carries in every game this
season. Expect him to get to that number and perhaps even into
the low-20’s if the Seahawks get up on the Bucs early. With
no other player in the backfield taking any significant number
of touches, Lynch is a must-start in this matchup even after a
despicably bad performance against St. Louis on Monday night.
Projections:
Russell Wilson: 210 pass yds, 2 TD, 35 rush yds
Marshawn Lynch: 105 rush yds, 2 TD, 10 rec yds
Golden Tate: 80 rec yds, 1 TD
Doug Baldwin: 50 rec yds, 1 TD
Prediction: Seahawks 31, Buccaneers
13 ^ Top
Chiefs at Bills
- (Thorne)
Passing Game Thoughts: The lone
remaining undefeated team, Kansas City has been able to beat all
of their opponents by first not beating themselves. For all of
the critics of Alex Smith and the underwhelming passing game,
they don’t make many mistakes and they use the skills available
to them to their full extent. Only one team has thrown fewer interceptions
than the Chiefs (who have thrown four, one every other game),
so the yards they do gain aren’t wasted by careless turnovers.
The passing game centers around short, quick, accurate strikes
and giving the playmakers a chance to turn a short throw into
a big open-field run after the catch. Smith’s yards per
attempt (6.3) is well within the bottom quarter of the league
despite his completion percentage (59.1) hovering right around
the NFL average. The greatest hindrances so far have been the
lack of a true receiving threat from the tight end position and
the inability of wide receiver Dwayne Bowe to overcome most double
coverages. Fortunately the ball can be spread around to a number
of other receivers or running backs to make up for the production
that is sometimes taken away when Bowe isn’t contributing
through the air.
Without a blueprint of how to beat Kansas City, the Bills will
have to find a way to do something that eight other teams have
been unable to do. Limiting the passing attack doesn’t seem
to be in the cards, as Buffalo ranks in the bottom ten with respect
to yards against per game. Facing the Chiefs will almost certainly
help improve on their 263-yard average, but since their opponent
doesn’t rely on an aerial assault, only giving up a few
hundred yards to them wouldn’t really be limiting them at
all. The greatest potential for success will come from rushing
the passer; Kansas City has given up 24 sacks on the season, putting
them in the bottom ten in that category, while the Bills have
recorded 27 sacks for second best in the league. The offensive
line has consistency issues, and if they’re unable to protect
the quarterback from the Buffalo pass rush, Smith may be forced
into mistakes that he has generally been able to avoid so far
this season.
Running Game Thoughts: Like the
successful Andy Reid teams of the past, the 2013 Chiefs certainly
run the ball well, ranking in the top eleven of both yards per
game and yards per rushing attempt. Their eight-game winning streak
is largely due to their ability to run the ball and then turn
those yards into points; they are tied for eighth most rushing
touchdowns (7) and rank in the top ten of total points scored.
Where the offensive line is less than ideal in terms of pass blocking,
they’re able to create running lanes fairly well for Jamaal
Charles, and he turns those lanes into consistent chunks of yardage
while occasionally breaking through the defense for a big gain.
His skills in the open field make him one of the most dangerous
runners once he gets into space, so he often garners extra attention
from defenses. Even with that, he is averaging 4.2 yards per carry
on the season and has scored six of his team’s seven rushing
touchdowns. The second leading rusher for the team is actually
the quarterback, who is able to use the enhanced defense against
Bowe and Charles to his advantage, taking off for first downs
and big gains several times each game and averaging roughly 32
yards per game by way of improvisation.
In a parallel to how the Bills' pass rush could overwhelm the
Chiefs' pass blocking, the tables will be turned when Buffalo
tries to slow down the Kansas City rushing attack. The Bills rank
well within the bottom ten in yards against, giving up nearly
118 per contest on the ground; their opponents average 3.9 yards
per carry, right in the middle of the pack for NFL defenses. Generally
teams see success in running against Buffalo when their game plan
calls for a steady dose of ground-and-pound, much like the Chiefs
do week in and week out—a formula that has led them to be
the only undefeated team in the league. Most recently the Bills
faced off against the pass-heavy Saints, but they still managed
to give up 65 yards on 14 carries (4.6-yard average) to Pierre
Thomas in addition to surrendering 332 yards through the air.
While Smith won’t challenge the secondary like New Orleans
did, the rushing game will be substantially more difficult for
Buffalo to combat, and if Charles is able to approach his season
averages, it will be hard to imagine the Chiefs not extending
their unbeaten record to nine games.
Projections:
Alex
Smith: 180 pass yds, 1 TD / 30 rush yds
Jamaal
Charles: 90 rush yds, 1 TD / 50 rec yds
Dwayne
Bowe: 40 rec yds
Passing Game Thoughts: For three
games Thad Lewis has been the quarterback for a Buffalo team who
expected to have some growing pains at the position, but certainly
not to this extent. With E.J. Manuel out (knee) and Jeff Tuel
apparently unready for NFL action, the former practice squad player
has led the team to overtime against the Bengals (they lost by
3 points), a road win over a division rival (Miami), and most
recently a disappointing loss against the Saints in New Orleans.
Despite at one time being the third or fourth quarterback on the
depth chart, Lewis has held the Bills relatively steady as a team,
allowing his experience to make up for the physical tools he doesn’t
possess. Unfortunately, holding steady means leading one of the
worst passing offenses in the league, averaging only 195 yards
per game and the same 6.3 yards per attempt that their opponent
records. The major difference between the Chiefs and the Bills
is not the positives but the negatives, where Buffalo has fewer
touchdowns, more interceptions, more sacks, and fewer yards per
game, all leading to a 3-5 record rather than a perfect 8-0.
Defensively the Chiefs are superb at pressuring the quarterback,
recording a league high 36 sacks; the next closest is Buffalo
with 27, with one sack fewer per contest. Additionally, they have
given up fewer touchdowns than they have recorded interceptions,
and even at that, only four teams have allowed fewer passing touchdowns.
Only one other team has fewer touchdowns and more interceptions,
putting the Chiefs in the same class as the vaunted Seattle Seahawks.
As a team, they give up only 206 passing yards per game, fourth
best in the league. Statistically, the Chiefs are near or at the
top of every major defensive category, and that is the primary
reason behind their unblemished record. The weakness of the Bills
through the air and the strength of the Chiefs against it will
likely be the story of the game come Sunday.
Running Game Thoughts: Team leading
rusher C.J. Spiller has a high ankle sprain and is considered
unlikely (officially Questionable) to play this weekend after
missing Week 8; he will be a game time decision pending negative
developments in his recovery process. Luckily for Buffalo they
have Fred Jackson, likely the best backup in the league and the
veteran half of the tandem which has led the Bills to the seventh
best rushing offense, despite having one of the worst passing
offenses. Even when defenses suspect a run, they still have a
hard time keeping Buffalo contained, as the Bills average 4.0
yards per carry. More than 33 times per game they run the ball,
a dedication to the ground game that has helped take some of the
pressure off of whoever happens to be the quarterback that week.
Only three teams have scored more rushing touchdowns than Buffalo,
and of their eight scores, Jackson has recorded six.
While running the ball should prove easier than throwing it, the
Bills still shouldn’t expect to see great success in this
area of the contest. Kansas City surrenders only 103 yards per
game and only one other team has given up fewer rushing touchdowns.
The strength of Buffalo is certainly on the ground, but usually
that's with their dynamic duo of running backs and not a one-man
show, as they’ll likely have Sunday. For having such a good
yards-against total, the Chiefs actually surrender 4.7 yards per
carry, suggesting that teams don’t run on them often but
that when they do they tend to be successful. If Jackson can shoulder
the load like he did last year when Spiller was unavailable, the
Bills ought to be handing him the ball early and often so that
he can wear down to Kansas City defense. Without a consistent
running game in Week 9, the Bills will have a hard time moving
the ball. And because the Chiefs make so few mistakes, Buffalo
will have a hard time capitalizing on any opportunities which
may present themselves.
Projections:
Thaddeus
Lewis: 150 pass yds, 1 INT
Fred
Jackson: 70 rush yds
Steve
Johnson: 40 receiving yards
Prediction: Chiefs 20, Bills 9 ^
Top
Vikings at Cowboys
- (Thorne)
Passing Game Thoughts: Of the Vikings'
three potential starting quarterbacks this weekend, only Matt
Cassel has been eliminated from the running, leaving Christian
Ponder and Josh Freeman as the two possibilities for Leslie Frazier
to decide between for his announcement on Friday. Considering
how Freeman was brought in midseason after Ponder struggled on
the field before missing time due to injury, the new acquisition
is the more likely candidate, though neither carries with them
particularly lofty expectations of success. While both have different
strengths and weaknesses, the biggest hole in the passing game
comes from the inconsistent play along the offensive line. They’ve
given up 18 sacks (slightly more than the league average), but
there has also been a great deal of pressure on the quarterback
that has affected the play but didn’t necessarily end up
in the box score. On the season, Minnesota quarterbacks are completing
only 58 percent of their passes, putting them in the bottom ten
of the league. Between his time in Tampa Bay and his one start
as a Viking, Freeman is completing a league worst 42.9 percent
of his attempts, including only 37.7 percent against the lowly
Giants two weeks ago. The coaches love his arm strength (and improvement
over Ponder), but without the accuracy to go along with it, Minnesota
will see little if any success in their passing game regardless
of who is under center.
The worst passing defense belongs to the Cowboys, so if Freeman
is hoping to stake his claim to the starting role, this will certainly
be the week to do it. For the year, Dallas has averaged 315 passing
yards against per game, and injuries to the defensive line early
in the season as well as recently having linebacker DeMarcus Ware
unavailable have only made things worse, as their ability to rush
the passer has diminished. Even so, Dallas should be able to blitz
successfully, as both Ponder and Freeman have noticeably worse
quarterback ratings and completion percentages when faced with
five or more rushers. When it comes to defending the pass, the
best defense may be a good offense in the sense that sending additional
pressure and attacking the line of scrimmage ought to yield the
best results for the Cowboys. Of the teams with more sacks (21)
than Dallas, only four have as many or more interceptions (11)
as well. The high-risk/high-reward defense has served the team
reasonably well, allowing them to overcome the yardage they surrender
by coming up with timely turnovers or drive-changing stops, something
they hope to be able to continue against the Vikings this Sunday.
Running Game Thoughts: Coming off
a career-best and nearly record-breaking season, Adrian Peterson
is averaging only 81.5 yards per game rushing this year, and the
remainder of the team has contributed about 22 more yards per
contest, the majority of which have come from Ponder scrambles.
Despite the relative disappointment of these rushing numbers,
they still rank just outside the top half of the league, though
with Freeman and not Ponder under center, the additional production
may be lost and would put an increased burden on the star running
back. The same offensive line troubles that create a hassle for
the quarterback are responsible for some of the underwhelming
rushing performances this season. Additionally, Minnesota has
shown a propensity to favor the right side of the offensive line
for their running plays (only 37.2 percent have been to the left),
and if trend continues, it will be easier for defenses to prepare
for them and further limit the rushing success that they’ve
been able to find.
While the Cowboys aren’t stellar against the run, they come
in right around the middle of the pack in yards per game, with
107.1 surrendered on the ground. When looking at the gains they
give up per attempt, with 4.4 yards per touch, they dip back down
in the rankings to the bottom ten. With so many teams having great
success throwing against them, many don’t focus on running
the ball, but when they do it tends to result in big gains that
help move the chains. Minnesota doesn’t pose nearly as great
a passing threat as most teams, and their running game has the
potential to be one of the best in the league. Because of this,
Dallas will likely be looking to stack the box against the run.
With the injuries that have been suffered by their defense, the
Cowboys may still have trouble keeping Peterson totally bottled
up, but with linebacker Sean Lee at the heart of it, they should
at least be able to prevent a monster game from the star running
back.
Projections:
Christian
Ponder: 200 pass yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
Adrian
Peterson: 90 rush yds, 1 TD
Greg
Jennings: 50 rec yds
Passing Game Thoughts: While the
story of the offense generally revolves around Tony Romo, for
the first time in a long time, fingers are being pointed in a
different direction. Numerous cameras caught wide receiver Dez
Bryant on the sideline engaged in animated conversation with several
players and even coaches; most of the press this week has centered
around the team’s interpretation and handling of that particular
display. On the field, offensive line issues still continue to
rear their head, as Romo for the first time since 2009 has completed
less than 50 percent of his passes, partially because of the pressure
he is receiving. Dallas ranks eighth in passing yards with 261
per game and has the third highest passing touchdown total (18).
The continued development and involvement of wide receiver Terrance
Williams is a major factor in their passing success as defenses
are being punished for paying too much attention to Bryant. In
addition to those receivers, tight end Jason Witten still has
the ability to hassle defenses and continues to be one of the
most consistent contributors in history, this year recording at
least two catches in every contest.
Stopping an aerial assault is not one of the strengths of the
Minnesota defense; they give up 288 yards per game and are ranked
as the fourth worst defense in the league, allowing 16 passing
touchdowns while forcing only seven interceptions and recording
14 sacks. The strength of the defense is in their ends, with Jared
Allen and Brian Robison each able to harass offensive lines and
find ways to get to the quarterback. With the O-line troubles
Dallas has experienced all year, they’ll have to be acutely
aware of where each man is and find ways to slow them down without
opening up holes along other parts of the line. If given enough
time, Romo will be able to exploit the talented but young secondary
just as most opponents have been able to do this season.
Running Game Thoughts: With DeMarco
Murray out in Week 8, the Cowboys were able to muster only 62
rushing yards on 26 carries, averaging just 2.4 yards per carry
and not scoring a rushing touchdown. On the season, Murray has
averaged 4.7 yards per carry and has scored three touchdowns;
clearly the Dallas rushing attack is much better with him in the
game. Thankfully he has been able to participate in practice this
week and is officially listed as Probable for Sunday. Even with
Murray available, however, the offensive line is still a concern.
But they have stayed mostly consistent all year, and as long as
they don’t regress, Dallas will be able to count on their
running game for decent yardage and good averages against most
opponents. Defenses mainly focus on trying to slow down the Dallas
passing attack, and that often creates opportunities that Murray
is able to exploit as he gives Romo and the O-line a bit of a
break.
Like the other parts of the Vikings defense, their ability to
stop the run is somewhat limited. They rank in the bottom third
of the league in yards allowed despite being in the top third
in yards per carry average. Since the Minnesota offense has such
problems moving the ball, the defense ends up back on the field
more frequently and gives opponents more opportunities to run
the ball. The pieces are in place to have a good run-stopping
front seven, but having to play extra snaps wears on the defense,
and other teams are able to make slow but steady progress on the
ground. Only two teams have given up more rushing touchdowns,
and the longest rush the Vikings have surrendered was 38 yards,
showing that when teams get into the red zone, they are usually
able to pound it in from close distance rather than being forced
into kicking a field goal or committing a turnover. While Dallas
passes more than most, they do utilize the running game as well,
and if Minnesota isn’t cognizant of what’s going on,
they could be beat in all phases of the game.
Projections:
Tony
Romo: 330 pass yds, 3 TDs
DeMarco
Murray: 60 rush yds / 20 rec yds
Dez
Bryant: 90 rec yds, 1 TD
Prediction: Cowboys 34, Vikings
20 ^ Top
Saints at Jets
- (Thorne)
Passing Game Thoughts: In terms
of passing statistics, there is only one team that might be better
than the Saints; New Orleans is third in the league in completion
percentage (67.5), second in touchdown passes (19), third in passing
yards (2175) and yards per game (311), and tied for fifth in interceptions
(5) thrown. The only real weakness is the offensive line, which
has given up 18 sacks, but even that is better than half of the
league. The top two receivers for New Orleans actually aren’t
receivers in the traditional sense but rather are a tight end
(Jimmy Graham) and a running back (Darren Sproles); together they
have accounted for nearly 1,000 yards and nine touchdowns, close
to half of the total receiving production of the team. Because
of the number of weapons available to Drew Brees, he often needs
only to look for the biggest mismatch, and more often than not
that comes from his big, athletic tight end or his quick, agile
running back. In an offense that already uses wide receivers Marques
Colston and Lance Moore, the further development of Kenny Stills
gives the Saints five legitimate pass-catching threats, making
their passing attack nearly unstoppable.
Like his father, Buddy, and his brother, Rob, Jets defensive coordinator
Rex Ryan prides himself on defense and keeping opponents under
control, if not shutting them down entirely. This week will be
quite the test for Rex and all of the New York Jets. On average,
they give up 237 yards per game and have recorded only three interceptions
while allowing 15 touchdowns. The defense is most gifted at getting
to the quarterback, recording 25 sacks on the season, which ties
them for fifth in the NFL. Additionally, they are one of only
11 teams to allow less than 60 percent completions to opposing
quarterbacks. If New York is able to pressure Brees like they
have been able to do to other quarterbacks this year, they may
be able to limit the damage that he is able to cause through the
air. But if New Orleans is able to execute in their quick passing
game, the Jets secondary will be unable to match up against all
of their receivers, let alone the two biggest matchups on the
team, Sproles and Graham.
Running Game Thoughts: New Orleans
is one of the few teams in the league, if not the history of the
league, that views the running game as somewhat of a luxury. With
Brees under center and a multitude of capable receivers on the
roster, the Saints seem to run only for the tactical purpose of
keeping the defense a little off balance. By the numbers, they
fall into the bottom ten in terms of yards per game and they’ve
scored more rushing touchdowns than only four other teams; at
85.3 yards per game they’ve demonstrated they can run the
ball effectively enough to count on it when needed, but they truly
need it only on rare occasions. Leading rusher Pierre Thomas has
gained only 36 yards per game and has not scored a touchdown,
though he does usually contribute multiple receptions and double-digit
yardage out of the backfield.
The strength of the Jets defense is undoubtedly their ability
to stop the run, ranking as the best in the NFL with 77.9 yards
against per game. While their averages may technically improve
by playing the Saints, that unfortunately will most likely be
because their opponent chooses not to run the ball rather than
New York continually stopping their rushing attempts. New Orleans
is not a team that needs to run effectively, or even at all, in
order to win, and encouraging them to throw tends to only hasten
the demise of the defense. The more the Jets are able to take
the ball out of the hands of Brees, the better off they should
be as the game progresses. But allowing a team to rush against
them just so they don’t pass is an incredibly fine line
to walk, especially when it comes to baiting one of the best coach–quarterback
combinations in recent history and counting on an elite passer
to give over the reins of his offense.
Projections:
Drew
Brees: 310 pass yds, 3 TDs
Darren
Sproles: 10 rush yds / 50 rec yds
Jimmy
Graham: 100 rec yds, 1 TD
Passing Game Thoughts: In Week 8
against the Bengals, quarterback Geno Smith was pulled early in
the fourth quarter after throwing his second pick-six of the day
and his third in two weeks. Over that same time period, Smith’s
passes have resulted in 18 points for his opponents and only six
for his own team; 100 percent of his interceptions have been returned
for touchdowns in that two-game span. On the season, the rookie
has thrown for eight touchdowns and 13 interceptions, making the
Jets one of only seven teams to have an inverted TD-to-INT ratio.
The offensive line is partially to blame for those turnovers,
as they’ve allowed 29 sacks on the season, which is tied
for second worst in the league. In all, the Jets struggle to move
the ball through the air because of a number of factors, and compounding
those issues is the absence of a true No. 1 receiver. While having
an approximately equal talent pool makes it difficult for the
defense to key on any one man, it also makes it difficult for
the quarterback to have a go-to guy, something that is critical
for first-year signal callers.
Even though they tend to play from ahead and force other teams
to throw against them, the Saints still have a top ten passing
defense, giving up only 222 yards per contest. In a stark comparison
to last season, New Orleans has forced more interceptions than
they’ve allowed touchdowns (9 vs. 8) and have recorded the
eighth most sacks in the league. The combination of pressure from
the defense and pressure from the scoreboard has allowed the Saints
defense to make gargantuan strides under defensive coordinator
Rob Ryan. The most glaring weakness on defense is in cornerback
Jabari Greer, who is giving up a quarterback rating of 95.3 whenever
passes are thrown to the man he covers. The veteran defender isn’t
as speedy as he once was, and that discontinuity between a young
mind and an older body is predominantly what puts Greer in positions
to be beaten with unfortunate regularity, something which Smith
and the Jets ought to be able to exploit if the offensive line
can buy enough time at the line of scrimmage.
Running Game Thoughts: This offseason
running back Chris Ivory was traded from the Saints into a starting
role with the Jets, and even though the trade has worked out well
for all involved, there’s surely a bit of payback on his
mind heading into this Sunday afternoon matchup. Ivory has been
given more than 10 rushes only twice all year: in Week 2, when
he took 12 carries for 52 yards, and in Week 7, when he rushed
34 times for 104 yards. Both games came against the Patriots,
the one team that Rex Ryan wants to beat more than any other.
The Saints may be a close second, however, considering that his
twin brother will be on the opposite sideline. For the season,
Ivory has recorded only one reception, a catch for a loss of two
yards, so the likelihood of contributing in any other way than
on the ground seems highly unlikely.
While the Jets rank in the top half with respect to rushing yards,
the Saints are approximately equidistant from the midpoint in
occupying the bottom half of the defensive rankings. That potential
mismatch, combined with Smith's struggles passing and the potential
for Ivory to have a big game all point to the Jets' need to commit
to their running back and let him shoulder the load for the game.
If New York is able to keep the game close or even play from ahead,
the ability to run the ball and control the clock will further
help to keep Brees under control. The greatest flaw in this strategy
is how obvious it seems, so the Saints will almost certainly be
looking to take away the run and force the rookie quarterback
to make plays rather than let a veteran running back take control.
The best weapon the New Orleans defense can use is the scoreboard,
letting Brees get them an early lead and forcing the Jets to get
away from the run, the biggest vulnerability in the surprisingly
stout Saints defense.
Projections:
Geno
Smith: 200 pass yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
Chris
Ivory: 60 rush yds
Jeremy
Kerley: 40 rec yds
Prediction: Saints 28, Jets 10 ^
Top
Chargers at Redskins
- (Thorne)
Passing Game Thoughts: Thanks to
the resurgence of Philip Rivers, the Chargers are on the brink
of their first three-game winning streak since December of 2011,
verging on two full years. After a pair of largely disappointing
seasons, Rivers is once again playing at a level on par with the
best quarterbacks in the NFL. He leads the league with a 73.9
percent completion rate, is third in passing yards per attempt
(8.6), and has a 15-to-5 TD-to-INT ratio, which includes an awful
three-interception performance in a loss against the Raiders in
Week 5. Since then he’s led San Diego in victories over
Indianapolis and Jacksonville, throwing for 522 yards and two
touchdowns on 74.6 percent passing with no interceptions. Coming
out of the bye week should have given veteran tight end Antonio
Gates time to rest and clear up any bumps or bruises, as well
as allowing rookie wide receiver Keenan Allen additional time
to further his development as an emerging receiver in the Chargers
offense. Those two leading receivers, especially the rookie, got
off to a slow start to the season but have played a larger and
larger role as the season has progressed.
In any other year, being ranked with the Bears defense would be
a good thing, but seeing as they’re floating near the bottom
of defensive passing rankings, the Redskins shouldn’t feel
too good about their co-cellar-dwellers. Washington surrenders
274 passing yards per game and has forced fewer than half as many
interceptions as touchdowns allowed (7 vs. 15). The only redeeming
statistic is that they’ve recorded 20 sacks, but even that
isn’t good enough to be in the top half of the league. While
in past years viewing Rivers as an elite quarterback seemed to
be nothing more than recognition for past accomplishments, this
season his numbers and the subsequent respect speak for themselves.
The Redskins will have to shake off as much of the NFC East curse
as possible if they hope to adequately defend against a quarterback
who seldom makes a mistake and who is more than willing to complete
the easy pass for guaranteed yardage. San Diego isn’t a
high-powered offense, but being highly efficient is just as dangerous.
Running Game Thoughts: The biggest
difference between the San Diego running game of 2013 and those
of the past two years is simply the availability of their starting
running back. Previously, Ryan Mathews was injured for large parts
of the season, including last year when he had more broken collarbones
(2) than touchdowns (1) despite playing in multiple games. This
year has also seen the addition of running back Danny Woodhead,
who plays a similar role as a Charger that he played as a Patriot,
as a change-of-pace back who is good out of the backfield while
not being afraid to pick up tough yards in the trenches. As the
Chargers' offensive line continue to grow together and become
more cohesive, their rushing output should also see improvements,
but for now they’re an average O-line and an average running
team. However, when combined with the precision passing of Rivers,
they are more than enough to complement the aerial part of the
offense and keep opposing defenses off balance and one step behind.
If San Diego decides to run the ball, it may be hard for the Redskins
to stop them; giving up 123.4 yards per game puts them in the
bottom three of the league, and their 10 rushing touchdowns surrendered
makes them the second worst in that category. They may not have
the worst rush defense of 2013, but they aren’t clearly
better than many either. Opponents average 4.4 yards per carry
against Washington, and that sort of production almost certainly
leads to a victory for the opposition, as evidenced by the Redskins'
2–5 record. For a team that can’t stop the pass, and
even more so the run, facing a team like the Chargers looks to
be more than they can handle. Assuming Rivers is on his game and
makes appropriate reads at the line of scrimmage, the mediocre
offensive line should be able to neutralize the Redskins defensive
line, leaving the linebackers to react to what the backs are doing
or leaving the secondary out in space against a corps of ever
improving receivers. Until players return from injury, the defensive
outlook is bleak for Washington.
Projections:
Philip
Rivers: 270 pass yds, 2 TDs
Ryan
Mathews: 70 rush yds, 1 TD
Keenan
Allen: 60 rec yds, 1 TD
Passing Game Thoughts: He may be
on the field, but it’s hard to believe that quarterback
Robert Griffin III is actually back, even with seven games and
a bye week under his belt. Despite showing marked improvement
from the beginning of 2013 to now, he still isn’t the same
quarterback he was as a rookie in 2012. The biggest difference
is in his inability to throw the long ball as he did last year.
He's completed only five of 24 long passes, with two touchdowns
and three interceptions; last year he was 15 of 39 with seven
scores and one pick on similar throws. Part of the blame likely
falls on his surgically repaired ACL and the lack of complete
trust he has in his knee. The offensive line is doing fairly well
keeping defenders away, allowing only 14 sacks, sixth fewest in
the league. Similar to last year, Washington has only one true
threat at wide receiver, but between wideout Leonard Hankerson
and tight end Jordan Reed, there has been enough of another receiving
presence to prevent defenses from totally loading up against Pierre
Garcon.
For Washington to earn its third win of the season, they’re
going to have to exploit the Changers pass defense, which is allowing
273 yards per game and ranks as the seventh worst in the NFL.
Additionally, they’ve surrendered 10 touchdowns while forcing
only three interceptions, a ratio which certainly favors the Redskins,
who are in the midst of overcoming their fair share of turnover
issues. San Diego’s pass rush is average, or maybe a touch
below, so the ability to protect Griffin will go a long way toward
allowing him to trust his legs and find receivers down the field.
Two weeks ago the Chargers were able to hold Andrew Luck to just
over 200 yards despite sacking him only once, so while keeping
their quarterback upright isn’t a guarantee of success,
Washington will certainly depend on solid protection if they’re
going to ask their second-year quarterback to outduel an opponent
who is currently at the top of his game.
Running Game Thoughts: As Griffin
continues to trust his legs again and uses them to attack defenses
rather than only to protect himself, the Redskins will continue
to improve in the running game. While he does many things well,
it is the combination of his abilities that makes him such a threat.
A loose trend that has played out during the season is that the
more Griffin is willing to run, the more defenses have to try
to cover, meaning that there are ultimately more holes in other
areas which can be exploited. What makes the addition of a duel-threat
quarterback so valuable to the Redskins is that running back Alfred
Morris has been a consistent contributor for the entire season,
averaging over 80 yards per game and 5.2 yards per carry. Washington
has a top six rushing attack, with 137.3 yards gained per game,
and if they can approach those season averages, they’ll
be right with San Diego as the Week 9 game progresses.
The Chargers are right at the midline with respect to yards allowed
per game, though they’ve given up only two rushing touchdowns
all season, tied for second best. As a team strategy against the
run, employing a “bend but don’t break” philosophy
is dangerous, but so far it seems to be working. San Diego is
tied for the league’s worst yards against per carry, meaning
they’re either coming up with timely stops or their opponents
are choosing to throw the ball despite having such great success
against them on the ground. The more balanced Washington can be
on Sunday, the more they will force the Chargers defense to be
reactive rather than proactive, which will give the Redskins the
edge and allow them to control the outcome of the game. It all
depends on the health of Griffin’s knee, his ability to
run and scramble as needed, and how consistently Morris is able
to pick up yardage.
Projections:
Robert
Griffin III: 280 pass yds, 1 TD / 40 rush yds
Alfred
Morris: 80 rush yds, 1 TD
Pierre
Garcon: 70 rec yds
Prediction: Chargers 31, Redskins
27 ^ Top
Steelers @ Patriots
- (Thorne)
Passing Game Thoughts: The ebb and
flow of the Steelers season to this point has coincided with the
performance of QB Ben Roethlisberger; their two wins came when
he completed more than 71% of his passes and the five losses came
when he failed to reach that mark. Those victories are also the
only games in which he hasn’t thrown an interception. While
his passing totals have been impressive in several of their losses,
Pittsburgh is a better team when they can get production from
other players and not just their quarterback. The key appears
to be attempting 30 or fewer throws, completing a high percentage
of them, utilizing the running game, and trying to win a close
scoring contest. While it is tempting to rely on Roethlisberger
to throw for 380+ yards, as he’s done twice already this
season, the Steelers need to slow down their offense and trust
their defense to keep them in games so long as the offense isn’t
giving the ball away.
Shying away from the pass will be even more important against
the fifth ranked Patriots defense who give up only 216 passing
yards per game. The Patriots are one of three teams in the league
have more interceptions than touchdowns allowed while; their nine
TD, ten interception, 24 sack stat line puts them in elite company
for the season. The deciding factor in the success of the Steelers
passing attack will almost certainly be completion percentage,
where Pittsburgh needs a highly efficient offense and the Patriots
are second best in the league in limiting the effectiveness of
opposing quarterbacks. Sacks and pressure will be a close second
in determining the outcome of the game as the Steelers are tied
for seventh worse in sacks surrendered and the Patriots are tied
for tenth best. The Steelers offensive line will have its hands
full with pass rushers despite New England being without some
of their top linemen and linebackers.
Running Game Thoughts: Now that
RB Le’Veon Bell has a quartet of games under his belt the
Pittsburgh ground attack seems to now be taking shape. In the
three games without Bell the Steelers were 0-3 and averaged 51.7
yards per game while scoring no rushing touchdowns. In four games
with him they’ve gone 2-2, averaged almost 30 more yards
per game and have scored three touchdowns. His presence in the
backfield gives Pittsburgh the legitimate running threat they
expected when they drafted him this offseason and had it not been
for a preseason injury, they arguably would be in contention for
the division lead or at least sitting comfortably in second place.
The remainder of the season should see a steady dose of Bell,
removing as much burden as they can from the shoulders of the
quarterback. The Pittsburgh rushing attack currently ranks 30th
in the league despite the presence of Bell, one thing that will
certainly have to improve if the Steelers expect to make a turnaround.
Running the ball against New England has been relatively easy
for most teams this season; the Patriots rank second to last in
yards surrendered per game and their yards per attempt average
ranks only slightly better, but still puts them in the bottom
ten of the league. Their ability to stop the run has been diminished
further by injury, with losses to the center of the defensive
line and the heart of the linebacking corps. The biggest change
for Week 9 will come along the defensive line, but this time in
a positive way, after the Patriots acquire DT Isaac Sopanga from
the Eagles. Philadelphia brought in Sopanga this off-season to
eat up space and take on linemen in their 3-4 scheme, so while
the transition to a 4-3 may take a little time, he will ultimately
be playing a similar role. The Patriots shouldn’t have high
expectations for him in week one and Pittsburgh should be more
committed than ever to running Bell right at the new DT to challenge
the center of the defensive line.
Projections:
Ben
Roethlisberger: 180 pass yds, 1 INT
Le’Veon
Bell: 80 rush yds, 1 TD / 20 rec yds
Antonio
Brown: 70 rec yds
Passing Game Thoughts: Fans in New
England aren’t quite sure what to think of their team or
QB Tom Brady. The team keeps finding ways to win despite not playing
up to their own standards. Brady is in the midst of one of his
worst seasons as a professional and accordingly ranks in the bottom
half of most statistical passing categories. His yards per game
(209) are in the bottom ten, touchdowns (9) are just slightly
better, interceptions (6) are right at the midline and he has
the second worst yards per attempt average (5.9) in the league.
While the Future Hall of Famer doesn’t look like his normal
self, the receivers around him aren’t making things any
easier. Between injuries, drops, and miscommunications the extremely
young receiving corps has gone through its share of growing pains
but seems to be finally finding their stride. The return of TE
Rob Gronkowski and WR Danny Ammendola for week eight led to a
win over the Dolphins and with them expected for week nine, a
similar result should be within reach against the Steelers. In
their absence, rookie WRs Aaron Dobson and Kenbrell Thompkins
began to establish themselves as decent targets for Brady and
if that rapport continues, the Patriots could once again have
one of the most complete passing attacking in the NFL.
One main weakness for New England has been giving up sacks; on
the season they’ve surrendered 23, tied for tenth most in
the league. That particular situation gets worse in week nine
as RT Sebastian Vollmer will be unavailable (out for season, leg).
The Steelers historically have been able to harass quarterbacks
but this season they’re next to last in the league with
only 10 sacks. Aside from that, their pass defense is stellar,
ranking second in pass yards against per game (181) and fourth
in yards per attempt (6.4). As a team they’ve only recorded
four interceptions but have given up only five passing touchdowns,
suggesting that teams have a hard time throwing against them and
choose to try to move the ball on the ground. With Brady struggling,
the Patriots are likely to lean on the running attack but ultimately
the game will be put in the hands of the quarterback when the
clock is running down or when they need a big play.
Running Game Thoughts: The key to
Brady having such good passing numbers throughout his career has
generally been the presence of an established running game and
2013 continues to follow that trend. While the aerial aspect of
the offense may sputter at times the ground game is rather reliable.
Their 120.6 yards per game ranks just outside of the top ten in
the NFL. Despite sharing some of the same O-line woes as the passing
game they’ve managed seven rushing touchdowns on the season
and 4.2 yards per carry, both of which are better than the league
average. In recent weeks the main workhorse has been Stevan Ridley
but in particular games either LeGarrette Blount or Brandon Bolden
have split the rushing responsibilities. While losing Vollmer
for the season certainly won’t help improve the offensive
line his loss may be mitigated by play calling at the line of
scrimmage or any audibles that Brady may employ. How they’re
able to run the ball after the bye (Wk 10) will go a long way
to forecasting success at the end of the season.
There are exactly five teams that have a worse rush defense than
Pittsburgh and only two that have given up more touchdowns on
the ground. Given their relative strength against the pass and
the inconsistencies that have affected the Patriots receivers,
it stands to reason that the Week 9 matchup will see a steady
dose of Ridley, Blount, and Bolden. The Steelers give up 4.0 yards
per carry and teams have found it incredibly beneficial to run
at them frequently. In their two victories they gave up 82 and
83 rushing yards total while not surrendering more than 45 to
any one ball carrier. If New England can approach their season
averages the game should remain under their control. By committing
to the run they will wear down the Steelers defense and find better
running opportunities as the game goes on. This will also open
up the play action passing game for Brady to take advantage of
a Pittsburgh defense
Projections:
Tom
Brady: 210 yards passing, 1 TD
Stevan
Ridley: 90 yards rushing, 1 TD / 10 yards receiving
Rob
Gronkowski: 70 yards receiving, 1 TD
Prediction: Patriots 24, Steelers
20 ^ Top
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