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Fantasy Football Strategy, Advice, and Commentary |
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 By: Dave Stringer — November 17, 2010 @ 3:23 pm
QUARTERBACKS
Moving Up
Michael Vick, Eagles
After returning from injury, Vick appeared poised to finish 2010 as a top ten quarterback and perhaps a difference maker for his owners. That outlook rose dramatically this week after his blockbuster performance against Washington on Monday Night Football. With a great game plan laid out by Eagles head coach Andy Reid, Vick had the best fantasy performance of the season with 52 points. He did it with his arm (333 yards and four touchdowns) and with his legs (80 yards and two touchdowns). At this point, he is unstoppable. His running ability forces teams to employ a spy in the box, which leaves either DeSean Jackson or Jeremy Maclin in single coverage. With Vick showing a deft touch on his long passes, the only thing that can slow down this Eagles offense is poor play along the offensive line. If they can avoid that, Vick will be the top-ranked fantasy quarterback over the balance of the season. And unlike in past years, he has been gold in leagues that punish interceptions—he has yet to throw a pick in 2010.
Kyle Orton, Broncos
There were plenty of solid performances at quarterback this week, and Orton’s 296-yard, four-touchdown outing against the Chiefs ranked near the top. Orton’s been doing it all year despite the naysayers (yours truly included) waiting for him to fall on his face. Likewise, Brandon Lloyd looks like he is a legit number one wide receiver (at least in 2010). Orton is on pace to finish with career highs in all every major passing statistic, and his upcoming schedule looks mighty attractive. After this week’s game against the Chargers, four of the Broncos’ next five opponents rank 18th or lower against the pass. The only exception is the Raiders, but they have allowed 16 touchdown passes and aren’t exactly a horrible matchup.
Matt Cassel, Chiefs
Cassel has been the quintessential matchup play at quarterback in 2010. In Week 9, he threw for 469 yards and four touchdowns against a Broncos secondary that was playing soft with a big lead. Against pass defenses ranked 14th or better, he has averaged 11.6 points per game. In his other matchups, he has 26.4 points per game. On tap are the Cardinals (26th), Seahawks (27th), Broncos (19th), Chargers (4th), Rams (18th), and Titans (24th). With the Chiefs struggling of late, Cassel is more likely to open it up in the passing game, which makes him less of a risk.
Moving Down
Chad Henne, Dolphins
Sure, he was benched and then he got hurt subbing for an injured Chad Pennington, so this is an easy call in redraft leagues. In dynasty leagues, as well, it may just be time to give up on Henne. His knock coming out of college was that he struggled with his accuracy, and if you’ve seen any Dolphins games this year, it’s easy to conclude that he hasn’t improved in that area. His 64.0 completion percentage is just as misleading as the fact that Pennington has the highest completion percentage in the history of the league: if an NFL quarterback is asked to dink and dunk, they should be well over 60%. Henne’s problem is that he can’t accurately hit the deep passes, and he struggles even on intermediate throws. Expect the Dolphins to look for a new quarterback in 2011.
RUNNING BACKS
Moving Up
Knowshon Moreno, Broncos
It looks like the hamstring problems that plagued Moreno in training camp and early in 2010 are a thing of the past. He has topped 20 fantasy points in two of the last three weeks, with a mediocre performance in London against the 49ers sandwiched between his two solid performances. Against the Chiefs in Week 9, he topped 100 rushing yards for the first time this season, and his schedule for the fantasy playoffs looks good. For Weeks 13 through 16, he gets the Chiefs, Cardinals, Raiders, and Texans. Of that group, only the Chiefs have played well against the run in 2010, yet they have somewhat struggled to stop the run in recent weeks.
Keiland Williams, Redskins
I’m a bit lukewarm on this one. While Williams had a nice outing on Monday night against the Eagles, he had a number of factors going for him. First off, both players ahead of him on the depth chart (Ryan Torain and Clinton Portis…yeah, that’s right, Torain ahead of Portis) were injured. Then the Eagles got out to a big lead, which further helped Williams’ cause. On the one hand, he put up solid fantasy production of 139 total yards and three touchdowns. On the other hand, I can’t say I’m all that impressed with his abilities. Torain certainly looks like a better pure runner, and Williams doesn’t seem to have much burst or ability to make tacklers miss. Then again, head coach Mike Shanahan has turned low-round draft picks and undrafted backs into solid players in the past, and he’s been known to shake up the depth chart at running back on a regular basis. I’m back and forth on this one, but there’s no quibbling that 31 fantasy points will get you Moving Up.
Fred Jackson, Bills
Jackson awoke this week from his season-long slumber to finally put up the type of numbers most expected of him (on a far more regular basis) in 2010. He entered this week’s game against the Lions with exactly one double-digit fantasy performance this season. Now he’s got two, courtesy of a 170-total yard, three-touchdown game. Better yet for Jackson owners, rookie first-round pick C.J. Spiller is out indefinitely with a hamstring injury, and the Bills’ upcoming schedule looks pretty decent, save for a Week 12 game at home against the Steelers.
Felix Jones, Cowboys
A few weeks ago, I checked out the Cowboys’ remaining schedule and decided to target Jones in two leagues. I couldn’t get a trade worked out in either case; I had enough at running back already, so I wasn’t willing to overpay, especially since Jones hadn’t put up a game to justify the move. But this week against the Giants he had that game, with 51 yards on 14 carries and three receptions for 85 yards and a touchdown. Up next for the resurgent Cowboys are the Lions (26th against the run), Saints (17th), Colts (29th), Eagles (12th), Redskins (25th), and Cardinals (28th). With it all but certain that Marion Barber will be jettisoned after the season, Jones figures to get plenty of work, so that the Cowboys can determine if they need to add depth at the position in the offseason.
Mike Goodson, Panthers
With both DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart out with injuries, Goodson gained 100 rushing yards and 13 receiving yards against the Bucs. This week, the Panthers get the Ravens, who have been inconsistent stopping the run in 2010. If Williams and Stewart are both out, and if you’re desperate, Goodson is worth a look.
Moving Down
Marshawn Lynch, Seahawks
When the Seahawks acquired Lynch, I wasn’t exactly drooling over his fantasy prospects in Seattle as many others were. In five games with the Seahawks, Lynch is averaging only 7.6 fantasy points per game on just 259 total yards and five touchdowns. He’s also averaging a paltry 2.9 yards per carry. Justin Forsett is averaging 8.1 points per game over that same stretch.
 Three weeks and no TDs for L.T. LaDainian Tomlinson, Jets
I told you in my “Dave’s Take” column this week that the Jets planned to cut back on Tomlinson’s workload, and they followed through on that during this week’s overtime win against the Browns. LT had 18 touches to 23 for Shonn Greene, and he failed to find the end zone for the third consecutive game. New York is clearly concerned about overusing Tomlinson, and the plan seems to be to keep him fresh for the playoffs. That doesn’t bode well for his fantasy prospects the rest of the way.
Ray Rice, Ravens
Another ho-hum performance for Rice this week, with 102 total yards against the Falcons. Rice’s breakout year in 2009 was held back a bit by his inability to find the end zone in a major way (eight total touchdowns), and that has been a problem this season as well. In addition to that, he’s not racking up the total yards like he did in 2009, when he finished with over 2,000. This year, he is on pace to finish with just under 1,700 all-purpose yards and four touchdowns, not exactly the top-four performance his owners were expecting.
Rashard Mendenhall, Steelers
Just the numbers, baby, just the numbers. He was averaging just a tad less than 17 fantasy points per game without Ben Roethlisberger starting. With Big Ben under center, Mendenhall is averaging less than 12 points per game. His schedule is favorable, with four solid matchups in the next six weeks. But that won’t matter much if the Steelers continue to drop Roethlisberger back to pass 49 times like he did against the Patriots.
WIDE RECEIVERS
Moving Up
Dwayne Bowe, Chiefs
Bowe continued his recent string of solid performances with a blockbuster effort this week against the Broncos. He was targeted early and often (18 times total), catching 13 passes for 186 yards and a pair of touchdowns. He has scored in each of his last five games, has eight touchdowns during that span, and has double-digit fantasy points in four of those games while topping 20 points twice and 30 points once. With nine touchdown receptions, he’s tied with Hakeem Nicks and Calvin Johnson for the league lead, so it’s safe to say Bowe has put his early-season struggles behind him. And, as noted with Matt Cassel above, the Chiefs face some pretty average pass defenses in the coming weeks.
Mike Wallace, Steelers
With Hines Ward out with a concussion, Wallace stepped up big against the Patriots this week with the best game of his two-year career. He caught eight passes for 136 yards and a pair of touchdowns, as he was featured throughout most of the game. Wallace has topped 100 yards in each of his last two games (246 yards in total) while scoring twice, and he has five touchdowns in his last five games. The Steelers face some tough pass defenses over the next six weeks (none ranked lower than 14th), and Ward is expected back this week, but Wallace figures to remain productive and may even emerge as Pittsburgh’s go-to receiver by season’s end.
Mario Manningham, Giants
Steve Smith is out with a torn pectoral muscle and Manningham will start in his place for at least two more games, and likely more. This week against Dallas, Manningham caught 10 passes for 91 yards and a touchdown on 16 targets. Expect that high number of targets to stay steady until Smith returns. With Smith out and Ramses Barden on injured reserve, the Giants don’t have a solid third wide receiver, and tight end Kevin Boss has been lightly used in the passing game this season.
Dez Bryant, Cowboys
Original:Jon Kitna’s main man in the passing game is Bryant, so he’s moving up again this week. He just had his first 100?receiving yard game against the Giants, snagging three passes for 104 yards and a score. He would have had an even bigger game if the Cowboys hadn’t jumped out to an early lead. Bryant is averaging 14.2 fantasy points per game over his last four games and has five touchdowns in his last five games. He is a must-start every week from here on out.
Danny Amendola, Rams
The little engine that could is the best way to describe Amendola. He’s not a big play threat, but he leads the Rams in targets with 75—and that isn’t about to change anytime soon. Although he has only 141 total yards in his last three games, he has scored in each game, which gives him 32 fantasy points over that stretch. That’s WR3 production that just might be sitting on your waiver wire or is possibly available for trade at a bargain-basement rate.
Moving Down
Brandon Marshall, Dolphins
One measly touchdown in 2010. I debated benching him this week for Johnny Knox. I wish I would have. Fantasy points in his last four games: 5, 6, 3, 3. Starting quarterback for the Dolphins’ next game: Tyler Thigpen. Chances of Marshall imploding this week: much higher than the chances of him finding the end zone.
Lee Evans, Bills
Evans has always been a streaky performer, but he hasn’t blown hot in 2010 as much as he has in prior seasons. Save for a pair of solid games in Weeks 5 and 7, Evans has been a fantasy abomination, with just 233 yards and no touchdowns across his other games. Over his last three games, he has just 139 receiving yards. So, the question is: should you rely on a player who has a 22% (two of out nine) chance of producing? Only if you have to.
Roy Williams, Cowboys
Williams was productive early in 2010, but with the emergence of Dez Bryant, he has seen his role severely curtailed over the last five weeks. Williams is averaging three targets per game over that stretch, with a measly 17.6 receiving yards per game.
TIGHT ENDS
Moving Up
Rob Gronkowski, Patriots
The lesser-heralded of the Patriots’ rookie tight ends stepped to the forefront this week against the Steelers, having his best day as a pro with five receptions for 72 yards and three touchdowns. Aaron Hernandez has gotten most of the publicity due to his solid early-season performance, but over the last three weeks, Gronkowski has more targets with 16, topping the 14 that Hernandez has received. Maybe defenses are focusing more on Hernandez, or maybe Gronkowski has earned a bigger role. Either way, Gronkowski is worth grabbing as your backup tight end in larger leagues, and he is definitely worthy of a roster spot in dynasty leagues.
Anthony Fasano, Dolphins
Fasano is poised to have a career year in receiving yards, with 367 over the Dolphins’ first nine games. He had the best game of his career this week against the Titans, with five receptions for 107 yards and a touchdown. When Thigpen entered the game in the fourth quarter, he seemed to look Fasano’s way often, so Fasano could be in line for some additional targets over the second half of the season.
Moving Down
Brent Celek, Eagles
I had him Moving Down in Week 8 and he’s ready for another slap down. Vick simply doesn’t look Celek’s way often, and when he does, they don’t seem to be on the same page. The Eagles had an offensive explosion this week, but Celek wasn’t invited to the party, catching just two passes for eight yards. Over the past three games, he has caught four passes for 16 yards. At this point, Celek is the biggest bust among tight ends, and the competition’s not even close.
By: Dave Stringer — November 12, 2010 @ 3:18 pm
 Doomed in Dallas. The big news this week was the Cowboys belated decision to fire head coach Wade Phillips. At 1-7 and needing to win all of their remaining games to have a chance to make the playoffs, Dallas finally pulled the plug on Phillips’ tenure as head coach. He will go down as a figurehead of Cowboys owner Jerry Jones, willing to follow the owner’s wishes in order to retain his coaching position. Phillips was never regarded as one of the league’s top coaches, and insiders have suggested he had no involvement in the team’s offense. His calling card was defense, but with the Cowboys having sprung several leaks on defense in the past few weeks, Phillips was doomed. In Dallas, the fans and media are questioning when Jones will fire himself as general manager, the consensus being that the Cowboys have benefitted over the past few seasons from the roster constructed by Bill Parcells. After such a disappointing season, amid aspirations of hosting and playing in the Super Bowl, there is a chance Jones will finally relent and bring in an established general manager to run the Cowboys.
2. Sticking with the Cowboys, Jones was forthright in suggesting that several Cowboys players will need to step up their performance to remain with the team beyond 2010. Although Jones is willing to spend to bring in and retain key personnel, he has also shown a penchant for releasing big-salaried veterans and for penny pinching at the bottom of the team’s roster. With the Cowboys underachieving, a number of high-priced veterans will likely be shown the door at season’s end. Among the players that could be looking for new teams in 2011 are running back Marion Barber, wide receiver Roy Williams, right tackle Marc Colombo, guards Leonard Davis and Kyle Kosier, and defensive ends Marcus Spears and Igor Olshansky. The team has also been disappointed in the play of some young veterans such as linebacker Anthony Spencer and cornerback Mike Jenkins, but those players are likely to be given another year to prove their worth.
3. Owners of LaDainian Tomlinson have likely enjoyed a healthy string of wins courtesy of grabbing LT late in their drafts or spending a few of their precious auction dollars on the former Chargers running back. After Week 6, Tomlinson was a top ten running back, but his production has leveled off over the past two games (180 total yards and no touchdowns). This week, Jets head coach Rex Ryan announced that he plans to lighten the load of his starting running back, resting him during the week and giving him fewer touches on game day. That limits LT’s upside and almost certainly relegates him to RB2 status over the balance of the season. It also increases the chances of Shonn Greene putting together another impressive late-season string of games, just like he had last year during his rookie season. Greene is built to pound the ball, which makes him more useful in the second half of the season as the weather gets worse.
4. Michael Vick has been on fire for the Eagles, and the key issue for Philadelphia’s management this offseason will be what to do at the quarterback position. Vick is scheduled to become an unrestricted free agent in 2011, and the team already has Kevin Kolb signed for next season at just $1.4 million. With the league and the players’ union unable to hammer out a new collective bargaining agreement and the owners set to potentially lock out the players next season, Eagles management may be reluctant to offer Vick a lucrative long-term extension to remain in Philadelphia. However, allowing Vick to become a free agent and sign with another team will not sit well with the team’s fans, particularly if Kolb once again fails to impress as the starter. Look for the Eagles to slap the franchise tag on Vick, since it will meet the dual goal of ensuring he remains an Eagle while avoiding a long-term extension with a lockout looming.
5. With Terrell Owens becoming the main receiving threat in Cincinnati, Chad Ochocinco has seen his targets and his production decrease, and his frustrations boiled over last week against the Steelers. After spending the first half being used as a decoy, he slammed the ball to the turf following his first reception, earning himself a 5-yard delay of game penalty. It must have been irritating for Ochocinco to watch Owens take over his role as the lead receiver and then this week to watch him catch his 150th touchdown pass. Only Jerry Rice (197) and Randy Moss (153) have caught more touchdown passes than Owens.
6. Houston head coach Gary Kubiak is feeling the heat for his poor offensive game plan against the Colts and for allowing the road-challenged Chargers to come in to Houston to steal a victory. All seven of the head coaches who have been with their franchises at least as long as Kubiak has been with Houston have taken their teams to the playoffs at least twice. Kubiak has yet to accomplish that feat with the Texans. Of those seven teams, two have gone to the Super Bowl and one has won the Super Bowl. And this season the Bucs, Chiefs, and Rams have all made strides with head coaches in just their second year with their respective organizations. Simply put, given the parity in the league, a long rebuilding term is no longer required to turn around an organization, and Kubiak has had several years to get the Texans into the playoffs, without any success. If he doesn’t get them there this year, he is likely finished in Houston.
7. Another head coach clearly feeling the pressure to win now is the Dolphins’ Tony Sparano. Sparano chose to bench struggling third-year signal caller Chad Henne in favor of Chad Pennington, who hasn’t started since Week 3 of last season. However, Henne has not progressed as expected and has more interceptions than touchdowns for the second year in a row. With key matchups against the Titans and Raiders in two of the next three weeks, Sparano decided to make the switch now. Pennington is the most accurate passer in the history of the league, but he has accomplished that playing mostly in West Coast offenses that featured a short passing attack. Given that, it seems likely that Brandon Marshall will continue to struggle to post big numbers and score touchdowns in Miami.
8. The Panthers have struggled to run the ball for most of 2010, with running backs DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart finding limited success due to the team’s poor play at quarterback and struggles along the offensive line. Carolina has been waiting for right tackle Jeff Otah to return from offseason knee surgery but finally gave up on that happening and placed him on injured reserve this week. Since being taken in the first round of the 2008 draft, Otah has been a key cog in the Panthers offensive line and a large reason for their success running the ball. He missed four games during his rookie season and three last year, and he will miss all of this season, making his durability a question mark and something the Panthers will have to address in the offseason. He has Pro Bowl potential when healthy, but he hasn’t been healthy frequently enough in the eyes of Panthers management.
9. Sticking with the Panthers, look for significant change in the depth chart at running back in 2011. Williams is scheduled for unrestricted free agency, and Stewart has been a big disappointment in 2010. With Tyrell Sutton and Mike Goodson ready to assume bigger roles, it is likely that either Williams or Stewart will be elsewhere next season. Look for the team to re-sign Williams and dangle Stewart during the draft in exchange for draft picks. With the roster in need of help in several areas, it makes little sense for the team to maintain a depth chart that has four solid players at running back.
10. When the Broncos acquired Laurence Maroney from the Patriots, the assumption was that the team would move to more of a committee approach at the running position. With Knowshon Moreno and Correll Buckhalter having split the work fairly evenly in 2009 and with Maroney being a more talented player than Buckhalter, that seemed a reasonable conclusion. However, with Moreno injured, Maroney has received extensive playing time but has struggled to find any running room, and Buckhalter has not been as productive in 2010 as he was last season. Over the last two games, Moreno has been the only Broncos running back to get a carry, and it now appears that he has assumed workhorse status for Denver. While game circumstances may have dictated Moreno getting most of the work to this point, the plan in Denver is to use him in a feature role. Head coach Josh McDaniels confirmed as much this week, stating that the goal is to get the running game going and that Moreno is the running back to make that happen.
11. Sticking with Denver, the team’s run defense has fallen flat in recent weeks after playing reasonably well early in 2010. In three of their last four games, Ray Rice, Darren McFadden, and Frank Gore have each topped 100 rushing yards. That has dropped the Broncos to 31st in run defense, and they now seem a solid bet to approach last season’s ranking, where they finished 26th against the run. In short, get your running backs in against a Broncos run defense that seems to be in free fall—much like the team’s record.
12. Another team struggling to stop the run is Seattle. With starting defensive tackles Red Bryant on injured reserve and Colin Cole out with an injury, the interior of the Seahawks defensive line has not held up, and teams are having much more success on the ground against them than they were having earlier in the season. The Seahawks run defense has plummeted in the rankings and is down to 19th overall. Look for that to drift even lower in the coming weeks.
13. LeGarrette Blount has added some life to the Bucs rushing attack, although he did come up short at the goal line late in the fourth quarter during the team’s Week 9 loss to the Falcons. With center Jeff Faine and right tackle Jeremy Trueblood expected to be healthy this week, Blount shapes up as a decent breakout candidate over the balance of the 2010 season. The Bucs are going to ease each player back into action, with Faine likely to get some time behind Jeremy Zuttah at center and Trueblood backing up James Lee at right tackle.
14. Looks like Bengals right tackle Andre Smith is going to miss the rest of the season. The 2009 first-round pick broke the fifth metatarsal in his left foot during practice this week and will likely be placed on injured reserve. This will mark the second consecutive disappointing season for Smith. While Smith has made progress this year, he remains inconsistent, but he will likely get one more year to convince the Bengals that he is the answer at right tackle.
By: Dave Stringer — November 10, 2010 @ 11:13 am
QUARTERBACKS
Moving Up
Eli Manning, Giants
Manning has been on fire over the past two games, torching the Cowboys and Seahawks secondaries in consecutive road games. He lit up the Cowboys for 306 yards and four touchdowns before piling on the Seahawks for 290 yards and three scores. The Giants face one top-ten pass defense over the remainder of the season. That comes in Week 14 when they play the Vikings 10th ranked pass defense in Minnesota but the Vikings may be in a position to mail that one in. As for his reputation of late season swoons, Manning put that to rest last year by averaging 26.1 points per game from Weeks 14 to 16.
Brett Favre, Vikings
Favre had easily his best outing of the season this week, going 37 of 46 for 446 yards and a pair of touchdowns against the Cardinals. Bernard Berrian finally stepped up and contributed at wide receiver and Sidney Rice is apparently close to returning. Each factors bodes well for Favre. That being said, it was the Cardinals and he did throw a pair of picks which tempers my enthusiasm somewhat.
David Garrard, Jaguars
I’m a little late on this one but I should have given Garrard more credit for his four touchdowns and 260 yards in Week 8. However, I’m not totally sold since it came against the Cowboys. Garrard is Mr. Inconsistency this season. In his four good games, he has averaged 26.3 points per game. In his three bad ones, he’s averaged 7.9.
Moving Down
Tom Brady, Patriots
It’s official. Without Randy Moss, Tom Brady is not a top-ten fantasy quarterback. In four games without Moss, Brady has averaged 229 passing yards, thrown for five touchdowns and averaged 16.5 fantasy points per game. Not to mention that he benefitted during that stretch from getting an extra quarter from an overtime game against Baltimore. Surprisingly, Brady hasn’t thrown for 300 yards in a game since Week 13 of last season. With defenses clamping down on Wes Welker, Brandon Tate not providing the deep threat, and tight end Aaron Hernandez not piling up the yardage like many thought he would (yours truly included), Brady is likely to finish out of the fantasy top ten.
 Schaub continues to disappoint. Matt Schaub, Texans
Here’s another disappointment. I gave up on him this week and maybe you should too. With his 266 yard, no touchdown performance against the Chargers this week, Schaub dropped further down the rankings at quarterback and it’s past time to seriously consider whether his 4,844-yard performance last season was a fluke. Once Arian Foster opened the season on fire against the Colts, we knew the Texans would run it more. We just didn’t know that Schaub would also become less effective. Toss aside his 37 fantasy points in Week 2 against the Redskins and Schaub is averaging just 14.8 points per game.
RUNNING BACKS
Moving Up
Brandon Jacobs, Giants
Jacobs failed to hit double digits fantasy points this week, ending his streak of 10 or more fantasy points at four games. Nonetheless, he was still solid against the Seahawks, gaining 78 yards on 11 carries, and he would have had more than 10 points had Danny Ware not handled the fourth quarter mop up work (66 yards on 13 carries). With the Giants offense humming along nicely, Jacobs makes a solid option at the flex position and even as a low-end RB2 for certain matchups. That’s a big jump from his status after the first few games of 2010.
Chester Taylor, Bears
Matt Forte is Moving Down and Taylor is Moving Up. At a minimum, Taylor is going to get the goal line work and more time spelling Forte. Or maybe he takes over as the team’s starter over the next few weeks. More on this below…
Javarris James, Colts
Well, it was a slow week in terms of Moving Up for running backs so James cracked the list. With the Colts missing both Joseph Addai and Mike Hart, Donald Brown and James carried the load with James getting the short yardage work. He made the most of it, scoring two touchdowns in his four carries and gaining 12 yards. In deep leagues that use a flex, he might be worth considering since there are no indications when Addai will return and neither Brown nor Hart are good short yardage runners. James may hold down that role for a number of weeks and this just in, the Colts offense is good.
Moving Down
Matt Forte, Bears
Forte has been boom or bust in 2010, likely earning wins for his owners in Week 1 and Week 5 with 32 and 30 point performances. In his other six games, he has averaged 7.5 points per game. This week against Buffalo, the expectation was Forte would run all over the Bills 32nd ranked run defense but it didn’t happen as he finished with just 49 yards on 14 carries. Worse yet, Chester Taylor had his highest workload since Week 5 and took over the short yardage, scoring his first touchdown of the season. Could there be a changing of the guard going on in Chicago? Maybe and it doesn’t help that the Bears face run defenses ranked in the top half of the league five times in their next seven games.
Fred Jackson, Bills
Jackson put up a decent fantasy line this week but that was courtesy of scoring a touchdown against the Bears. He had just 16 yards on eight carries and 20 receiving yards on five receptions. The Bills have been getting rookie first round pick C.J. Spiller more involved over the last three weeks and with Jackson struggling to provide any big plays (he’s averaging 3.1 yards per touch over that stretch), look for Spiller to assume an even bigger role over the coming weeks. Jackson owners should be looking for help at the running back position if they are relying on him as a starter.
Ryan Mathews, Chargers
Mathews actually looked good when he was in the game against the Texans, gaining 42 yards on nine carries and catching two passes for 18 yards. Then he got hurt… again. Apparently he was seen with a walking boot on his right foot to help his ankle recuperate. Luckily the Chargers have a Week 10 bye to help Mathews heal. However, at this point, it’s clear that Mathews can’t be relied upon to stay healthy long enough to assume a productive role in the team’s offense.
WIDE RECEIVERS
Moving Up
Dez Bryant, Cowboys
Bryant is quickly emerging as the Cowboys top wide receiver – an astonishing accomplishment given Miles Austin’s production in 2009. Over the last three games, Bryant has been targeted 26 times, catching 20 passes for 224 yards and three touchdowns. During that stretch, Austin has 12 receptions for 171 yards and no touchdowns on 26 targets. Move Bryant up to WR2 status over the remainder of the season.
Nate Burleson, Lions
With Calvin Johnson spending Week 9 on Revis Island, Burleson stepped to the forefront of the Lions passing attack to snag seven receptions for 113 yards and a touchdown. That gives him 24 receptions on 34 targets for 266 yards and three touchdowns over the last four weeks. He’s had double-digit fantasy points three times over that stretch and is emerging as a low end WR2 or high end WR3. Johnson won’t get shut down like that over the balance of the season but Burleson is getting enough looks to keep producing on a consistent basis.
Jacoby Ford, Raiders
With the Raiders hurting at receiver, Ford got a chance to show off his speed during Oakland’s game against the Chiefs this week. And show off he did, catching six passes for 148 yards. The rookie fourth round pick from Clemson has wheels to burn and since neither Louis Murphy nor Darrius Heyward-Bey has proven able to produce on a consistent basis or stay healthy, maybe Ford will emerge as the Raiders go-to guy at wide receiver. He’s definitely worth a look in all leagues, especially in dynasty formats.
James Jones, Packers
In my Dave’s Take column this week, I incorrectly pegged Jordy Nelson as the Packers wide receiver to benefit from Donald Driver’s absence. Oops. Jones proved his worth, going off on the Cowboys, catching eight of his nine targets for 123 yards and a score. The Packers have a bye this week and Driver should return from his thigh injury for their Week 11 contest but James becomes a decent flex option in larger leagues.
A Word of Caution On….
Seyi Ajirotutu, Chargers
Arjirotutu won a few games for his fantasy owners brave enough to start him this week (I was on the wrong side of that equation) with his four receptions, 111 yards, and two touchdown performance against the Texans. However, if there was ever a perfect storm, this was it. He beat Texans beleaguered first round pick Kareem Jackson twice for long touchdowns and was only starting because Vincent Jackson is suspended, and Malcom Floyd and Legedu Naanee were injured. Plus, tight end Antonio Gates didn’t play and didn’t eat up any targets. The Chargers have a bye this week and Floyd and Naanee should be back for Week 11 with Jackson eligible to return from suspension in Week 12.
Moving Down
Steve Smith, Panthers
Removing the 2004 season when he missed most of the year with a leg injury, Smith is on pace for his worst production since his rookie season in 2001. He is projected to finish the year with just 636 receiving yards and four touchdowns, proving that wide receivers are a fickle beast in fantasy football – subject to a team’s ability to run the ball and, more importantly, the quality of the team’s play at quarterback. In Carolina, Smith has suffered from both factors in 2010. The team can’t run effectively and the quarterback situation has been abysmal. With a pair of rookies (Jimmy Clausen or Tony Pike) expected to finish the season starting, it’s doubtful that Smith will turn his season around any time soon.
Jacoby Jones, Texans
Jones was touted as a potential breakout wide receiver in 2010 but it hasn’t happened and it doesn’t look like it will. He put up a number of big plays in limited action last year but hasn’t responded to a bigger role this season. With Kevin Walter relegated to a backup role and tight end Owen Daniels struggling to recover from the torn ACL he suffered last season, Jones has had plenty of opportunities – he just hasn’t taken advantage of them. He is averaging 9.9 yards per reception and has only one touchdown – a far cry from last season when he averaged 16.6 yards per catch and caught six touchdowns. I’m not giving up on him in dynasty formats but he’s worth dropping in shallow redraft leagues.
TIGHT ENDS
Moving Up
Jacob Tamme, Colts
I told you he was moving up last week (okay, I like to toot my horn a bit) and this week, he’s moving way up, courtesy of his 11 reception, 108 yard, one touchdown performance this week against the Eagles. With Austin Collie out a minimum of one week and likely more with a concussion, Anthony Gonzalez on injured reserve and Blair White not likely manning the slot position, Tamme figure to get significant targets over the balance of the season. He won’t likely top the seventeen he had this week since that came about because the Eagles Assante Samuel effectively blanketed Pierre Garcon. However, he is a top ten tight end from here on out.
Tony Gonzalez, Falcons
For the first time in his career, Gonzalez has showed signs of wear and tear. In eight games, he has topped 50 yards receiving only twice, a surprising statistic considering the Falcons were without Michael Jenkins for several games to start the season. In Week 9, he had eight receptions for 72 yards and if there is anything at all to wide receiver Roddy White’s knee injury, Gonzalez will see his role increased. The Falcons and White are saying there aren’t any issues with his knee but if there aren’t, then why did he sit out practice? Move Gonzo up your tight end rankings based on that news.
Moving Down
Dustin Keller, Jets
The touchdown well has run dry for Keller. After scoring four times in three games, he has failed to find the end zone over the Jets past four contests. During that stretch, Santonio Holmes returned from suspension and Keller’s has caught just 11 balls for 193 yards. His targets are down (30 in four games without Holmes and just 22 in four games with Holmes in the lineup).
By: Dave Stringer — November 5, 2010 @ 11:56 pm
1. Jets head coach Rex Ryan did a masterful job in 2009 of bringing his team to within a game of the Super Bowl, succumbing to the Colts in the AFC Conference Final. However, he hasn’t had that same success this season. The team returned Pro Bowl cornerback Darrelle Revis to the starting line-up too soon after he injured his hamstring and it remains to be seen whether that decision will affect his performance over the balance of the season. At this point, the consensus is that he has not performed up to his 2009 standard. This week, Ryan released defensive tackle Howard Green knowing that the Jets opponent, the Green Bay Packers, were desperate for help along their depleted defensive line. Green stepped in for the Packers on short notice and played well in helping the Packers restrict the effectiveness of the Jets rushing attack. And finally, the Jets not only lost to the Packers at home, they were also shut out and that is inexcusable considering New York was coming off a bye week and two weeks to prepare. Ryan is a solid coach, just not as solid this year as last.
2. Speaking of bad coaching, Redskins head honcho Mike Shanahan, another coach who always thinks he’s the smartest guy in the room, takes the prize this week for the biggest coaching blunder following his decision to bench quarterback Donovan McNabb in favor of Rex Grossman so Grossman cold run the two-minute drill. No, folks, that wasn’t a typo. Grossman in for McNabb. Grossman stepped in and promptly fumbled on his first play, leading to a fumble recovery and touchdown for the Lions Ndamukong Suh. Shanahan’s initial reasoning was that Grossman was more adept at running the team’s two-minute offense. When that rationale was questioned, he stated that McNabb was not conditioned well enough to run the two-minute offense. Hey, if you’ve already dug a hole for yourself, why not dig deeper? He forgot to mention that McNabb has engineered 25 fourth quarter comebacks in his career.
3. Lots of bad coaching this week so next up on the hit list is the Texans’ Gary Kubiak. Kubiak has done a fine job of turning around the Texans program but with a chance to make a statement this week by beating the Colts in Indianapolis and sweeping the season series with them, he fell flat in a big play. In the Texans Week 1 win over the Colts, running back Arian Foster ran wild, gaining 231 yards and three touchdowns on 33 carries. In that game, quarterback Matt Schaub was a non-factor, passing for 119 yards. Despite that, Kubiak came out throwing on Monday night on the road in a loud Lucas Oil Stadium in left tackle Duane Brown’s first game back from a four-game suspension, squaring off against Dwight Freeney. It took all of three plays to figure out that Brown was no match for Freeney. However, Kubiak kept dialing up the passes and Schaub finished the first half 5 of 15. He reasoned to ESPN reporter Michelle Tafoya at half-time that they needed more balance and that they couldn’t pass protect one on one or in maximum protections. Frankly speaking, there was more than a little fiction in that statement since almost all of the pass protection schemes in the first half did not include running backs or tight ends. As for the comment about needing balance, that’s another fiction. The Texans won in Week 1 without any balance. They could have won last week without any balance. They just needed to give the ball to Arian Foster. He had 102 yards on 15 carries and 65 yards on nine receptions. The Texans threw it 38 times. That’s not balance. Kubiak clearly outthought himself in this one, despite having two weeks come up with a game plan.
4. Here’s to stating the obvious. Broncos Chief Operating Officer Joe Ellis, speaking on behalf of owner Pat Bowlen, was asked by the Denver Post to comment on head coach Josh McDaniels job security. Ellis refused to guarantee that McDaniels would be back in Denver in 2010. I guess when a head coach has lost 14 of his last 18 games and the team’s fans are hurling their fury at him, it’s no surprise when upper management refuses to guarantee the coach will be back the following year.
5. It seems like the Rams got it right with the selection of Sam Bradford with the first overall pick in the draft. Bradford has showed poise in leading the Rams to a 4-4 record that leaves them a half-game behind the Seattle Seahawks in the NFC West Race. Despite having a wide receiver group missing Mark Clayton and Donnie Avery, Bradford has moved the ball effectively with an array of short passes. All the more impressive is that he has been able to accomplish that and avoid interceptions despite lacking a true deep threat. He has thrown 96 straight passes without an interception.
6. If the Rams hit the nail on the head with Bradford, the Lions did the same with defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh with the second overall pick in the draft. He has been a beast for the Lions and has already emerged as the team’s most disruptive defender less than halfway through his rookie season. This week, he scored on a fumble recovery to seal the Lions win over the Redskins, although he almost got caught hot dogging it too much Leon Lett style with Santana Moss nearly stripping him at the one-yard line. Suh has six and a half sacks on the season, tied for eight overall in that category. It’s not often that the top two selections in the draft prove themselves to be potential Hall of Fame players mere games into their careers but that seems to be the case with the 2010 draft.
7. How about those poor Buffalo Bills? Two overtime losses in a row. I don’t know if that’s a record but somehow it doesn’t seem all that surprising that it would happen to Buffalo. Maybe linebacker Shawne Merriman can bring some much needed pass rush to a Bills’ defense that struggles mightily in putting pressure on opposing quarterbacks.
8. Fantasy owners of Chiefs running back Jamaal Charles are disappointed by head coach Todd Haley’s refusal to insert Charles into the starting line-up over Thomas Jones. However, Charles has put up decent production in a backup role despite being used in a change of pace role and not getting any goal line work. It’s also encouraging that with their 274 yard rushing effort this week against the Bills, the Chiefs have now surpassed 200 rushing yards in three straight games.
9. Don’t look now but the Oakland Raiders have actually made their presence felt in the AFC West for the first time since Jon Gruden was coaching the team. They sit at 4-4 but are on a roll, having trounced the Broncos in Denver in Week 7 and the Seahawks in Week 8. This marks the first time they are playing .500 ball in November since the 2002 season. With 92 points over their past two games, the offense is clicking behind a solid rushing attack and big plays in the passing game on play action. Al Davis must be smiling in his grave. Err, he’s still alive, you say? Who knew Chiefs at Raiders would be a feature matchup in Week 9?
10. Keeping with the Raiders, wide receiver Darrius Heyward-Bey showed some toughness for the first time in his career this week, playing through a shoulder injury he suffered during the game to haul in five passes for 105 yards and a score. He also had a 30-yard run to pad his fantasy stats. While it was nice to see him display some toughness, the production shouldn’t be emphasized too much since the Seahawks have a suspect pass rush and played the game without two of their top three cornerbacks.
11. Get your wide receivers in this week against Cincinnati. Their secondary is banged up and extremely thin heading into this week’s game against the Steelers. At cornerback, Adam Jones was placed on injured reserve two weeks ago and Jonathon Joseph will likely gut it out this week with an ankle injury. If he can’t go, Morgan Trent will step in. At safety, Nedu Ndukwe and Roy Williams will both try to play through knee injuries. If they can’t go, the Bengals will have to rely on inexperienced Tom Nelson to man one of the safety positions. The Bengals need a lot of things to break their way if they’re going to field a decent secondary over the next few weeks.
12. After watching wide receiver Donald Driver unsuccessfully try to play through a quadriceps injury for two straight weeks (no receptions in either game), the Packers quickly ruled him out for this week’s contest against the Cowboys. With the team having their bye in Week 10, that gives Driver two full weeks to recovery. Owners in deeper leagues likely have James Jones and Jordy Nelson stashed on their benches in the event Driver went down. Early this year, it looked like Jones had locked down the third receiver role but Nelson has been the steadier performer of the two over the past few weeks. Jones has the flashier numbers with 19 receptions for 284 yards and a score. However, it’s taken him 40 targets to reach that production and he has been prone to drops. Meanwhile, Nelson has caught 62.8% of his targets and is clearly the more sure-handed of the two.
13. IDP leaguers take note that Rams defensive end Chris Long is finally living up to his potential after being taken second overall in the 2008 draft. He has sacks in three straight games and four and a half sacks in his last five contests.
14. With Mike Tolbert topping 100 rushing yards this week, the Chargers broke a streak of 16 consecutive games without having a running back top the century mark.
By: Dave Stringer — November 4, 2010 @ 2:49 pm
The Tennessee Titans have been awarded Randy Moss on waivers.
The Titans have a need for a receiver with youngster Kenny Britt expected to miss at least four weeks with a severe right hamstring injury, so it was not unexpected that they would put in a claim for Moss.
However, the biggest surprise is the teams ahead of the Titans in the claim process did not make a claim.
Of the playoff contending teams, the St. Louis Rams, Washington Redskins, Chicago Bears, Oakland Raiders, Chicago Bears and Seattle Seahawks all had waiver priority over Tennessee and are in need of help at the wide receiver position but decided against making a claim for Moss.
Their decisions allowed the Titans to claim Moss, moving him to a team that can use his deep threat ability while at the same times giving Chris Johnson more room to operate in the running game.
The Titans become Moss’ third team in 2010, having been traded to the Vikings from the Patriots on October 6th before being waived on Tuesday.
The Vikings decision to wave Moss so soon after acquiring him, resulted from his lack of production on the field, a well-publicized altercation with a catering staff, and a rambling five-minute post-game press conference that criticized Vikings’ coaches and praised his former head coach, Bill Belichick of the New England Patriots.
Fantasy Impact
The Titans are clearly gambling on Moss but it’s easy to see why they claimed him on waivers.
 Chris Johnson: The clear winner. Their rushing attack hasn’t been as successful in 2010 because opposing defenses are clamping down on Chris Johnson, playing eight men in the box on a regular basis.
With Britt out for an extended period, this problem would have been even more exaggerated with Washington and Justin Gage in the starting line-up at wide receiver.
With Moss in the line-up, opposing defenses will play two safeties deep more frequently and that should give Johnson more breathing room in the running game. That makes Johnson a clear winner with the addition of Moss.
At quarterback, Vince Young and Kerry Collins also benefit from the addition of Moss. They get a player still capable of getting deep on a regular basis and that should also translate into more success for the receivers playing opposite Moss on intermediate routes.
Both quarterbacks are solid deep passers and become an upper tier backup for fantasy purposes with Young clearly having more upside given his ability to also contribute in the running game.
At wide receiver, Justin Gage has clearly lost his chance at moving into the starting line-up so he’s a fantasy loser with this move. He was a potential pickup in only the deepest of leagues anyway.
Nate Washington remains the second option but will be out of the starting line-up when Britt returns. Washington should see a slight increase in production until he loses his starting spot to Britt.
Britt goes from being the number one option to playing second fiddle to Moss but that’s not necessarily a bad thing. He has proven capable of being productive when defenses focus too much attention on Johnson. If defenses focus exclusively on shutting down Moss and Johnson, Britt will have some big games when he returns. Consider Britt a mid-tier WR2 when he’s back in the line-up.
As for Moss, while this isn’t the ideal landing spot for him (that would have been New England), this isn’t a bad second option. He will fulfill the same role he did with the Patriots and Vikings. Look for him to getting plenty of deep looks and red zone work with Tennessee.
What should whet the appetite of his fantasy owners is the Titans schedule over the second half of the season. After a Week 9 bye, they face a number of weak passing defenses. Here is a list of the teams the Titans face between Week 10 and 16 and their pass defense rankings: Dolphins (18th), Redskins (31st), Texans (30th), Jaguars (32nd), Colts (13th), Texans (30th) and Chiefs (12th)
Moss shapes up as a mid-tier WR2 with upside but a player who brings considerable risk given his surly attitude and extremely questionable behavior in 2010. If motivated, he could be a significant fantasy contributor over the balance of the fantasy season considering the Titans schedule.
By: Dave Stringer — November 2, 2010 @ 1:28 pm
QUARTERBACKS
Moving Up
Michael Vick, Eagles
He’s back this week and he’s averaging 22.2 fantasy points per game in standard scoring leagues. Even more impressive is that in the four games he has appeared in, he has twice played only half the game. That means that in three games worth of actual playing time, he’s scored 88 fantasy points, which translates to nearly 30 fantasy points per game. Sure, I’m playing with the numbers a bit, and maybe Vick is injury-prone, but he’s also been brilliant thus far in 2010.
Matthew Stafford, Lions
Stafford returned to the starting lineup with a bang this week against the Redskins. Facing a suspect Washington pass defense, he completed 26 of 45 passes for 212 yards and four touchdowns and an interception. With Shaun Hill having been productive during his five games as the starter (and even Drew Stanton playing well when Hill was injured in Week 6), it is safe to conclude that the Lions passing attack is for real. Consider Stafford a low-end fantasy starter over the balance of the season.
 What's not to like? Jon Kitna, Cowboys
If your league doesn’t penalize interceptions, Kitna looks like gold. He throws picks, the Cowboys get behind, they have to throw more. What’s not to like? Well, a lot, actually-that’s why I prefer leagues that penalize interceptions. Kitna has thrown for 566 yards and three touchdowns in a game and a half, and that’s good enough for 40 fantasy points. Of course that 40 points drops considerably once you tally the interceptions, so don’t go out and get him if picks count against you in your league.
Moving Down
Alex Smith, 49ers
With Alex Smith out with a shoulder injury, Troy Smith stepped into the starting lineup for this week’s game in London against the Broncos. While he wasn’t spectacular, he was good enough to lead the 49ers to a victory, and head coach Mike Singletary hinted after the game that it is Troy’s job going forward. Time to drop Alex Smith from your roster in re-draft leagues.
RUNNING BACKS
Moving Up
LeGarrette Blount, Bucs
He was Moving Up last week and he’s back this week for a return performance. In two short weeks, Blount has moved from afterthought to lead back to potential breakout player down the stretch. This week he ran over the Cardinals, gaining 120 yards and two touchdowns on 22 carries and making an absolutely sick move when he jumped over safety Kerry Rhodes. I guess when you can run it like that, your inability to pass protect becomes a secondary issue. The Bucs remaining schedule is run-of-the-mill, and Blount has clearly established himself as the team’s top threat at running back. That makes him a mid-tier RB2 with upside.
BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Patriots
Quick question: Who is the 20th-ranked fantasy running back? It’s the man with four names. With Fred Taylor on the shelf, BJGE has taken over the reins as the Patriots’ starting running back. And while he will never be confused with the league’s elite backs, he has been a quietly productive fantasy option with touchdowns in five straight games, including two this week against a solid Vikings run defense. He also topped 100-yards for the first time this season, gaining 112 on just 16 carries. He’s the type of player that fantasy owners grab on the waiver wire and then are afraid to start. If that’s the case with the owner who has him in your league, and you’re desperate for help at running back, grab him. As for Taylor, there’s little reason for the team to go back to him even if he does gets healthy.
Moving Down
Jonathan Stewart, Panthers
Entering 2010, Stewart shaped up as a mid-tier RB2, with the Panthers running game expected to carry the offense. However, Carolina has struggled on offense-both in the passing game and on the ground-and Stewart has been virtually invisible. He had a season-best 43 yards on the ground entering this week’s contest against the Rams and was expected to top that with DeAngelo Williams out with a foot injury. The only problem was that the Rams and their improved defense had other ideas. They shut down Stewart, and he finished with just 30 yards on 14 carries and one reception for eight yards. With that, he blew his chance to earn a greater share of the workload when Williams returns, and his yards per carry dropped to a measly 2.8.
Steven Jackson, Rams
Jackson is obviously a beast, and the Rams’ bye this week should help his injured ring finger on his left hand heal properly. It better, because he struggled mightily this week against a soft Panthers run defense, gaining 59 yards on 23 carries. Until the Rams started chewing up the clock, most of his runs were to the outside (presumably to protect his injured finger) where he is less effective. While he is clearly a player that needs to be retained on your roster if you have him, I would be hesitant to swing a trade for him until he shows he finger is healthy.
WIDE RECEIVERS
Moving Up
Terrell Owens, Bengals
After a quiet start to the season where he managed only 152 receiving yards in three games, T.O. has been on fire over the Bengals’ last four contests. He has emerged as Carson Palmer’s top target and has double-digit fantasy points in four straight games. Over that period, he has 31 receptions for 477 yards and five touchdowns. It’s a mixed bag in terms of opponents over the remainder of the season, with the Bengals facing four top 10 passing defenses and four rated 18th or lower. If his owner isn’t buying into T.O. usurping Chad Ochocinco as the team’s top receiver, see if you can grab Owens with a low-ball offer.
Mike Williams, Bucs
Apparently Williams has something to prove after dropping to the fourth round of the rookie draft. The talented wide receiver has been on a tear in his rookie season, and it’s well past time to officially declare him a must-start on a weekly basis. Williams went off against the Cardinals this week, catching four passes for 106 yards and the game-winning touchdown. That performance marked the first 100-yard receiving game of his career, and he is now on pace to finish the season with 73 receptions for 1,074 yards and nine touchdowns. If he stays on that pace, he will finish the season as either a low-end WR1 or a high-end WR2. Quite remarkable, given the baggage he brought with him from his college career.
Steve Breaston, Cardinals
In his first game back since suffering a knee injury in Week 3, Breaston once again showed his ability to make defenses pay for giving too much attention to Larry Fitzgerald. Despite uneven quarterback play, Breaston caught eight of his 11 targets for 147 yards and chipped in 14 yards on a reverse. With Derek Anderson expected to go back under center, Breaston should continue to produce and moves into the WR3 category, provided he can remain healthy.
Darrius Heyward-Bey, Raiders
With the Raiders hurting at wide receiver this week against the Seahawks, Heyward-Bey stepped in and produced a career-high 105 receiving yards and a touchdown on his five receptions. While it would be foolish to suggest that Heyward-Bey is going to be a consistent fantasy producer over the balance of the season, it’s worth noting that the Raiders offense has scored 92 points over the last two games, thanks to some solid running and a play-action passing attack. That combination plays to Heyward-Bey’s strengths, and he could emerge as a decent fantasy starter if the team’s rushing attack continues to dominate opponents.
Anthony Gonzalez, Colts
Yeah, yeah, he’s the fourth option at wide receiver behind Reggie Wayne, Austin Collie, and Pierre Garcon. I just don’t think that will remain the case for very long. Stick with me here. The Colts haven’t said how long Collie will be out with his thumb injury, but speculation is he will return in Week 12. How effective will he be catching the ball if his thumb isn’t fully healed? Tight end Dallas Clark is on injured reserve. Pierre Garcon continues to run the wrong routes and has caught 61 of his 125 targets during the 2009 and 2010 seasons. This week against the Texans, in his first game back since suffering a knee injury in Week 1, Gonzalez caught four of his six targets for 55 yards. He’s definitely worth stashing on your bench and could develop into a useful starter over the second half of the season.
Moving Down
Randy Moss, Vikings
He’s flamed out with two teams in just eight weeks. He’s unemployed. He’s averaging 39 receiving yards per game. As I like to say, you can’t score fantasy points without opportunity, and there’s no opportunity if you don’t have a team. I don’t buy the premise of the Patriots wanting him back, and they are really the only team where he could re-establish himself as a WR1 for fantasy purposes. Look for him to re-emerge with a wide receiver?needy playoff contender, but chances are slim that he will be a consistent contributor if he lands anywhere other than New England.
 Percy needs Randy to stay. Percy Harvin, Vikings
No Moss means more opportunities for Harvin, right? That means more fantasy points, right? Not so fast. Harvin struggled before Moss was acquired, often lining up outside rather than in the slot, where he is more comfortable and more productive. Pre-Moss, Harvin had 12 receptions for 106 yards and one touchdown through three games. With Moss in the lineup, Harvin managed 19 receptions for 287 yards and two touchdowns over four games. Although his receptions stayed about the same, Harvin’s yardage actually doubled while Moss was in purple.
TIGHT ENDS
Moving Up
Jacob Tamme, Colts
The Colts entered this matchup against the Texans planning to use both Tamme and Brody Eldridge to replace Dallas Clark, who is out for the season. When Eldridge went down with a rib injury in the second quarter, that plan got shelved and Tamme responded by finishing the game with six receptions for 64 yards and a touchdown. I’m guessing the scheme going forward will involve more Tamme and less Eldridge, regardless of Eldridge’s injury situation.
Moving Down
Heath Miller, Steelers
When Ben Roethlisberger returned from a four-game suspension, Miller’s production was expected to increase with the Steelers moving to a more pass-oriented offense. That hasn’t happened. In three games with Roethlisberger at the helm, Miller has seven receptions for 122 yards and a touchdown. While that isn’t horrible, he has been targeted just eight times over those three games-a far cry from 2009, when he averaged 6.1 targets per game.
By: Dave Stringer — November 1, 2010 @ 4:58 pm
It turns out that the return of Randy Moss to the Minnesota Vikings was a short-lived one.
 Bye-bye Randy. The Vikings announced today that they have waived Moss, one day after the enigmatic wide receiver delivered a rambling five-minute post-game press conference that criticized Vikings coaches and praised his former head coach, Bill Belichick of the New England Patriots.
The decision to release Moss adds another layer of intrigue to a Vikings season that has delivered plenty of drama but has not resulted in a winning record for a team many had labelled a Super Bowl contender at the start the season.
On October 6th, Minnesota acquired Moss from the Patriots in exchange for their third-round draft pick in the 2011 draft. The Patriots also sent their seventh-round pick of the 2012 draft to the Vikings as part of the trade.
At the time of the trade, Minnesota’s passing game was struggling, and Moss’s addition was expected to revive the Vikings air attack. However, Moss failed to deliver big plays in Minnesota and struggled during his short stay with the team.
In four games with the Vikings, he managed just 13 receptions for 174 yards and a pair of touchdowns. This week, against his former team in New England, Moss caught just one pass for eight yards.
Because the trade deadline has passed, Moss will be on waivers for 24 hours. ESPN is reporting that a number of teams are interested in Moss.
Of the playoff-contending teams, the Redskins, Rams, Bears, Raiders, Seahawks, and Chiefs are most in need of help at wide receiver.
Fantasy Impact
With Moss on the shelf and with two more bye weeks remaining, his owners are left with the unenviable task of trying to replace the player they likely tabbed as a WR1 entering the season.
At this point, the only route to replacing a WR1 is via trade. However, moving Moss when he has little to no trade value is not a viable option. Moss owners should hold onto him and hope he ends up on a wide receiver?needy team that will be likely to use him in the starting lineup.
At this point in the season, only playoff contenders are likely to acquire Moss, given his surly reputation; and only those teams willing to use him as a starter are likely to be interested in paying for his services. However, given his lack of production in both New England and in Minnesota—and his quick flameout with the Vikings—don’t expect him to ramp up his production with the team he signs with.
The best hope for Moss owners lies in the Patriots bringing him back into the fold and reinserting him in the starting lineup. While that may seem a far-fetched proposition at initial glance, a closer look reveals valid reasons for the Patriots to bring him back.
While Moss clearly sulked his way out of New England, the Patriots passing attack has suffered since he left. This year quarterback Tom Brady passed for 911 yards with nine touchdowns and two interceptions with Moss in the lineup. In his three games without Moss, Brady has thrown for only 691 yards and three touchdowns with the same number of interceptions.
By: Dave Stringer — October 29, 2010 @ 12:58 pm
1. Panthers running back DeAngelo Williams has had a rough start to the 2010 season with just 361 yards and a single touchdown during the team’s first six games. Williams has suffered from Carolina’s lack of production in the passing game. However, there is hope on the horizon in the form of the Panthers upcoming schedule, and that makes Williams a definite buy-low candidate provided his foot injury isn’t severe. Over the next five weeks, the Panthers face run defenses ranked 15th or lower (Rams, 15th; Saints, 16th; Bucs, 31st; Browns, 19th). Unfortunately, the fantasy playoffs are a mixed bag, with the Falcons (8th), Cardinals (29th), and Steelers (1st).
 The ultimate buy-low candidate. 2. Keeping with that theme, let’s have a look at the case of the Cowboys’ Felix Jones. Jones hasn’t been a complete bust this season, but his 36th ranking at running back is disappointing considering many were predicting a breakout season for the speedy tailback from Arkansas. There are some positives for Jones, however, and he could be ready for a big second half. Over the last three games, he has 55 touches to just 24 for Marion Barber; and Jones has racked up 126, 93, and 62 total yards in those games, with the 62 coming against a stiff Giants defense. Here are the rankings of the run defenses the Cowboys face between Week 8 and Week 16: Jaguars (25th), Packers (23rd), Giants (3rd), Lions (26th), Saints (16th), Colts (25th), Eagles (18th), Redskins (20th), Cardinals (29th). That makes Jones perhaps the ultimate buy-low candidate.
3. With the acquisition of wide receiver Brandon Marshall from the Broncos and with strong-armed Chad Henne at quarterback, the Dolphins offense was expected to feature more big plays in the passing game this season. However, that has failed to materialize, and Marshall has contributed just four plays of 20 yards or longer, two plays of more than 40 yards, and only one touchdown. While he has been a solid contributor in the passing game with 524 yards in six games (projected to a career-high 1,397 yards), the big plays aren’t going to come until the Dolphins rushing attack begins forcing opposing defenses to play closer to the line of scrimmage and out of the cover two defense the team has faced for most of 2010.
4. There have been a lot of stops and starts on Beanie Wells’ path to becoming the Cardinals full-time starter at running back, but it now appears that he will assume the starting role over incumbent Tim Hightower. After Hightower lost his fourth fumble of the season (all of which have come at inopportune times), head coach Ken Whisenhunt noted that there would be a point where fumbling issues would cost players playing time—a comment clearly directed at Hightower. If Wells does indeed get the promotion, it comes in perfect timing with the Cardinals facing the Buccaneers’ 31st-ranked run defense this week.
5. Speaking of the Buccaneers run defense, it has gone completely downhill over their last four games. After allowing just a combined 223 yards on the ground to the Browns and Panthers during their first two games, the Bucs have allowed 723 rushing yards over their last four games, an average of 181 yards per game. Safe to say that it’s high time to get your running backs in the starting lineup if they face the Bucs.
6. It looks like the biggest benefactor in Green Bay’s offense after tight end Jermichael Finley’s season-ending injury is wide receiver Greg Jennings. Jennings has come out of his four-game slumber over the last two weeks, catching 12 passes for 207 yards and a pair of scores. With Donald Driver suffering from a quadriceps injury that is clearly slowing him down (3 catches for 31 yards in Week 6, and held off the score sheet this week), Jennings figures to keep producing. As for Driver, keep him on your bench until the quadriceps injury is healed.
7. It appeared that Cardinals wide receiver Steve Breaston would be back in the lineup in Week 7, but instead he missed his third consecutive game. He was held out due to the playing conditions in Seattle but will return to the starting lineup this week. That bodes well for quarterback Max Hall and wide receiver Larry Fitzgerald, who should see fewer double teams with Breaston starting.
8. It looks like the Bills are close to giving up on 2009 first-round pick Aaron Maybin. With Buffalo switching to a 3-4 defense, Maybin was converted to a pass-rushing role as an outside linebacker after a disastrous rookie season in which he failed to record a sack and saw minimal playing time due to his inability to hold the point in the rushing game. He was inactive this week during the Bills trip to his hometown of Baltimore, and Bills head coach Chan Gailey was clearly sending a strong message, reasoning that the team would play the players who give them the best chance to win. Maybin barely played during the two games prior to the trip to Baltimore, and it doesn’t look like he will see field again for a while, barring injuries to the team’s other linebackers. This is likely to be his last season in Buffalo, and if that happens, he will be another in a long line of questionable Bills draft picks.
9. The Texans were dealt a huge blow to their defense when middle linebacker DeMeco Ryans suffered a season-ending Achilles tendon injury during the their Week 6 win over the Chiefs. The team announced this week that starting strong-side linebacker Brian Cushing will slide over to the middle with Kevin Bentley starting on the strong side. While that would generally increase a player’s IDP production, it’s not necessarily the case this time. Since entering the league, Cushing has out-produced Ryans, so he may see fewer tackles in his new role. Bentley becomes an intriguing option, although you should wait to see how he does this week against the Colts before adding him to your roster in IDP leagues.
10. Has there ever been an instance in which a team as talented as the Chargers made two completely boneheaded plays in one game? First off, rookie wide receiver Richard Goodman was credited with a fumble after making a 25-yard reception on his first reception as a pro. No big deal, right? Except he went to the ground untouched after making the catch, put the ball on the ground, and got up and walked away. It’s not college, big fella. Later, fullback Jacob Hester was the target on a swing pass that he failed to catch. Only problem was the swing pass was actually a backwards pass, and as Hester jogged back to the huddle, the Patriots recovered the ball and returned it 63 yards to the Chargers eight-yard line.
11. Keeping with the Chargers, they have now lost 12 fumbles, the most in the league, including three in the red zone. With all the fumbles, it’s no wonder the Chargers sit at 2-5 despite having the top-ranked offense and defense in the league.
 Here's to you, T.O.! 12. Here’s to Bengals wide receiver Terrell Owens, who scored his 150th career touchdown this week against the Falcons, making him only the fifth player to accomplish that feat. Owens is currently on pace to finish the year with 1,504 receiving yards and eight touchdowns, so we can now officially say that his lack of production last year in Buffalo was a direct result of the team’s poor quarterback play and unimaginative offense.
13. Despite uneven play at the quarterback position, the Titans offense has been on fire this season. They are second in the league in scoring at 28.4 points per game and have topped 30 points in each of their last three games. If you follow the theory that a rising tide lifts all boats (and you should), then it’s time to start adding some Titans to your roster. Running back Chris Johnson and wide receiver Kenny Britt have seven touchdowns each; but it’s unlikely that distribution will continue going forward, so Nate Washington and Bo Scaife are decent pickups given that they can likely be had for next to nothing at the moment.
14. Broncos owner Pat Bowlen has been a staunch defender of head coach Josh McDaniels over the last season and a half, and the team’s fans have generally been supportive of McDaniels as well. However, that support seems to have dried up considerably after the Broncos were crushed at home this week by a score of 59-14 to the hated Raiders. It seems that bad coaching, bad drafting, and horrendous trades are perfectly acceptable to Bowlen and Broncos fans, but losing to the Raiders is simply unacceptable. After going 6-0 to start the 2009 season, the Broncos are 4-13 since then, and their biggest problems have been their inability to generate a consistent rushing attack and their failure to stop the run. As John Madden used to repeatedly say, if you can’t run and you can’t stop the run, you’re not going to win many games in the NFL. During the Broncos’ 13 losses over the last two seasons, they have given up 173 or more rushing yards seven times and over 200 rushing yards five times. If the Broncos don’t start winning soon, look for McDaniels to insert rookie first-round pick Tim Tebow into the starting lineup in an attempt to appease the Broncos faithful and buy himself one more season in Denver.
15. The Ravens secondary had a strong start to the 2010 season, which was unexpected given preseason predictions that they would struggle early with safety Ed Reed out of the lineup. After four games, that proved to be wrong, and the Ravens were near the top of the league in passing defense, having surrendered only one passing touchdown and just 119 passing yards per game. However, the wheels have come off over the past three weeks, with Baltimore giving up 314 yards to Kyle Orton, 292 yards to Tom Brady, and—worst of all—382 yards this week to Ryan Fitzpatrick. They have also allowed seven touchdowns over that span, with Fitzpatrick tossing four of them. Looks like it’s time to get your receivers and tight ends in against Baltimore.
16. Earlier this season, Rams running back Steven Jackson moved past Marshall Faulk to become the franchise’s second all-time leading rusher. During the Rams loss to the Bucs this week, Jackson moved ahead of Eric Dickerson into first place. Nice company to keep.
17. The question du jour this week is what to make of new Cowboys starting quarterback Jon Kitna. With Tony Romo on the shelf for a minimum of six weeks with a broken left clavicle (and most likely for the season since the Cowboys are unlikely to be in the playoff hunt by the time he is healthy), Kitna shapes up as the team’s starter for the balance of 2010. While he has barely played since the 2008 season, he did put up a pair of 4,000-yard seasons in 2007 (4,066 yards) and 2006 (4,208 yards), and the Cowboys offense features more talented skill position players than those teams—along with a comparable offensive line. Kitna is thirty-eight years old, but his arm showed some zip this week and appears to have the strength to hit some deep passes to the team’s trio of talented wide receivers. My guess is that he shapes up as a solid backup for fantasy purposes—one I would be comfortable starting on a weekly basis if necessary. If you need a quarterback and Kitna is available, grab him from the waiver wire rather than deplete your roster in a trade to fill your quarterback needs.
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