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Fantasy Football Strategy, Advice, and Commentary |
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 By: Dave Stringer — March 13, 2012 @ 7:55 pm
Just three years after the Denver Broncos broke up one of the most promising quarterback-wide receiver duos in the league in Jay Cutler and Brandon Marshall, the pair will be reunited in 2012 in Chicago.
Reports indicate that the Bears have traded their 3rd round pick in each of the next two drafts to the Miami Dolphins in exchange for Marshall.
 Marshall is taking his talents to Chicago. During their time together in Denver, Cutler and Marshall combined to form one of the league’s most lethal quarterback-wide receiver combinations. Taken together in the 2006 draft (Cutler in the 1st and Marshall in the 4th), they rose to prominence during the 2007 season with Marshall on the receiving end of 102 passes for 1,325 yards and seven touchdowns.
For Marshall, that marked the beginning of three consecutive seasons that he topped 100 receptions and 1,000 yards. During that period, he amassed 307 receptions for 3,710 yards and 23 touchdowns.
Cutler was the Broncos quarterback for two of those seasons, throwing for 8,022 yards and 45 touchdowns.
However, the duo was broken up in 2008 when Josh McDaniels took over for the fired Mike Shanahan. McDaniels flirtation with current Chiefs quarterback Matt Cassel led to Cutler’s trade to the Bears.
Marshall followed Cutler out of Denver the following season; traded to the Dolphins for a pair of 2nd round picks.
In Chicago, Marshall immediately becomes the team’s top wide receiver. The Bears have failed to land a true number one wide receiver for several seasons with Devin Hester, Johnny Knox, Roy Williams and Earl Bennett failing in that role in 2011.
Fantasy Impact
The Dolphins chances of landing former Colts quarterback Peyton Manning are likely over with Marshall landing in Chicago unless this move is to clear cap space and facilitate the signing of Manning and wideout Reggie Wayne. Suffice it to say that the task for whoever is starting in Miami in 2012 just got a whole lot tougher.
In Chicago, there are plenty of questions with the Bears passing offense.
Can Cutler and Marshall reclaim their magic? Can Cutler produce more with offensive coordinator Mike Martz out of the picture? Will new offensive coordinator Mike Tice bring the team’s passing attack to a new level? Can the team fortify the offensive line to give the team’s passing attack a fighting chance?
Cutler is just 28 years of age and Marshall is 27. With five consecutive seasons of at least 1,000 receiving yards, Marshall has plenty left to offer. Despite being battered for much of his time in Chicago, Cutler’s best years almost certainly lie ahead of him.
Cutler was a fantasy backup prior to this trade but with Marshall in the fold, he becomes a low-end starting option or high-end backup, assuming the team’s offensive line play improves. Look for Cutler to top the 3,666 passing yards he had in Chicago in 2009, his highest total with the team.
Marshall figures to put up numbers similar to his time in Miami, where he averaged 83.5 receptions for 1,114 yards and 4.5 touchdowns. Look for the touchdown numbers to improve.
Hester, Bennett and Knox will battle for the starting spot opposite Marshall but none of them will be solid fantasy options in 2012.
By: Dave Stringer — February 3, 2012 @ 9:00 pm
1. The rumblings out of San Francisco are that the 49ers will pursue a veteran wide receiver this offseason to replenish a group that was relying heavily on rookie 6th round pick Kyle Williams by season’s end. The team’s decision to wait for the second tier of signings in free agency allowed them to sign former Jet Braylon Edwards to a discounted one-year deal worth $1-million plus bonuses seemed like an astute decision at the time but Edwards bombed out in San Francisco due to injuries and ineffectiveness, catching just 15 passes and failing to find the end zone in nine games before finally being released. Josh Morgan, whose season ended with a fractured right leg, and Ted Ginn Jr. are unrestricted free agents at season’s end and the team would like to re-sign them but both players are better suited to supporting roles, as is Williams. Although former 1st round pick Michael Crabtree enjoyed his best season with 72 receptions for 874 yards and four touchdowns (including 61 receptions for 742 yards and all four of his touchdowns over his final 11 games), the 49ers may have concluded that Crabtree will never be a bonafide number one wide receiver and that his lack of chemistry with quarterback Alex Smith is evidence of that.
 Finley: Franchise tag dilemma 2. In Green Bay, the Packers will be faced with a number of difficult decisions this offseason due to the combination of their salary cap situation and the pending free agency of a number of key players as well as backup quarterback Matt Flynn. While the Packers would clearly prefer to avoid losing Flynn without compensation, they are in a bind because they need to maintain the franchise tag designation in order to ensure Jermichael Finley’s return at tight end. Finley’s negotiating position is clearly enhanced knowing that Flynn will leave as a free agent unless Finley is signed prior to the deadline for using the franchise tag. In addition, using the franchise tag on Flynn would cost the team $14-million against the cap, forcing the team to release several players to get under the cap and restricting their ability to sign players such as running back Ryan Grant and center Scott Wells. Look for general manager Ted Thompson to end up using the franchise tag on Finley, a talented but somewhat enigmatic player who Thompson is likely reluctant to sign to a long-term deal based on his performance this past season, and allow Grant to leave unless he accepts a major salary reduction in 2012. Other cap casualties could include left tackle Chad Clifton, wide receiver Donald Driver, safety Nick Collins and cornerback Charles Woodson.
3. The Saints face a similar dilemma with quarterback Drew Brees, wide receiver Marques Colston and guard Carl Nicks all eligible for unrestricted free agency. Clearly, Brees will receive the franchise tag if he doesn’t sign a long-term deal but the quarterback also recognizes that he stands to benefit both on and off the field if he avoids being tagged. With the tag likely to be in the $14.5-million range, Brees figures to earn more on a yearly basis if he signs long term as well as securing roughly $50 million guaranteed in addition to allowing the team to use the franchise tag on Colston or Nicks. Of those two, Nicks is most likely to be with a new team in 2012. Having signed fellow guard Jahri Evans to a seven-year, $57 million deal in 2010 and with Nicks worthy of a similar deal, the team may well decide against allocating over $15-million in cap space per year to their starting guards.
4. Bills wide receiver Steve Johnson figures to be one of the most sought after free agents at his position unless he is signed to a long-term contract or receives Buffalo’s franchise tag. Johnson has been a revelation for the Bills, with the former 7th round pick becoming the first player in team history to top 1,000 receiving yards in consecutive seasons and just the third player with 70 receptions in two straight seasons. However, given Johnson’s off the field comments and on-field issues and controversies, the Bills seem reluctant to lock him up long term. With the franchise tag for wide receivers down to $9.4-million from $11.4-million in 2011, look for the Bills to end up franchising Johnson and using the 2012 season to gauge whether he warrants a long term commitment.
5. Another elite AFC East wide receiver is scheduled for unrestricted free agency this season in the Patriots Wes Welker. Unlike Johnson, there is virtually no chance of New England allowing Welker to hit the open market. Although the Patriots and Welker’s representatives have been unable to come to an agreement throughout the season, there is no denying his importance in the Patriots passing game on short and intermediate routes. However, Welker will turn 31 prior to the start of the 2012 season and the combination of his age and size are likely causing the Patriots to hedge on giving him a contract of more than three or four years in length. If the two sides fail to come to an agreement, look for Welker to receive the franchise tag and return to New England, a scenario that he seems to think is likely given his recent comments about expecting to be back with the team in 2012.
6. The off-season is obviously a period where comments from league officials are just as likely to be misleading, as they are to be informative and where each piece of information is likely to be overanalyzed. This week’s news that Cardinals wide receiver Larry Fitzgerald was planning on having dinner with Colts quarterback Peyton Manning falls into the latter category. Just because two players are having dinner is hardly cause for jumping to the assumption that they are going to be teammates in 2012.
7. Chiefs general manager Scott Pioli and new head coach Romeo Crennel told fans this week that the team would bring in competition for incumbent starting quarterback Matt Cassel for the 2012 season. That revelation was a far cry from Crennel’s assertion when he took that job that Cassel was the team’s starter. What gave rise to the change in thinking is irrelevant and the comments seem to indicate that Kyle Orton being re-signed is much more of a possibility than was thought after Crennel was made head coach. Since Orton is unlikely to be handed a starting position by another team, it won’t be a surprise if he agrees to come back to Kansas City with the hope of unseating Cassel.
By: Dave Stringer — January 20, 2012 @ 12:34 pm
1. Jets running back LaDainian Tomlinson mused about retirement last week and if his comments this week about the team’s organization are any indication, he is either headed for retirement or to another team for the 2012 season. Tomlinson let loose on the team’s dysfunction, suggesting the team’s chemistry was as bad as he had ever seen, that he doubted quarterback Mark Sanchez and wide receiver Santonio Hollmes could coexist, that Holmes needed to work on being a leader and that while he liked playing for head coach Rex Ryan, he wished the combative coach would tone down his style. Having used 4th round picks in each of the last two drafts on running backs (Joe McKnight and Bilal Powell), don’t look for LT back in a Jets uniform in 2012.
2. Having witnessed left tackle Doug Free struggle mightily to protect quarterback Tony Romo’s blindside in 2011, reports indicate the Cowboys are considering moving Free to right tackle. Rookie 1st round pick Tyron Smith played that position this season but Dallas head coach Jason Garrett may want to move Smith to left tackle, given his superior athleticism.
3. With the Packers loss this week to the Giants, the top seed in the NFC has now lost their first playoff game in four of the past five seasons. This trend follows a string of 17 years in which the top seed in the conference won their first playoff game.
 Nicks: 1a in the Giants passing attack. 4. Giants wide receiver Hakeem Nicks has been dominant in his team’s wins over the Falcons and Packers, reminding fans of the superlative performance that Cardinals wide receiver Larry Fitzgerald had in his team’s run to the Super Bowl during the 2008 season. Having topped 100 receiving yards and scoring twice in each game, Nicks becomes just the third player since the Super Bowl has been awarded to accomplish that feat, joining Fitzgerald and Jerry Rice.
5. Sticking with the Giants and their situation at wide receiver, Nicks’ performance has made a mockery of numerous fantasy pundits and NFL writers who spent the week prior to the wild card round claiming that the Giants had two number one wide receivers and debating the merits of which player would have a superior season in 2012. While Victor Cruz had an amazing season (setting a Giants record for most receiving yards with 1536, good enough for third in the league, there is little doubt that he benefitted playing alongside Nicks, who often drew coverage away from him. In addition, while Nicks played in 15 games this season, he was banged up regularly and was as healthy as he has been all year when the playoffs opened.
6. Looks like karma is working in favor of disposed Rams head coach Steve Spagnuolo. While Spagnuolo enjoyed little success in St. Louis, compiling a 10-38 record in three seasons, he was a solid defensive coach who attempted to build the team’s roster based on his four pillars: faith, character, core values and team first. With Jeff Fisher taking over for Spagnuolo and the hiring of Gregg Williams to lead the team’s defense, a vacancy at defensive coordinator in New Orleans was created. Spagnuolo will fill that role in 2012. Interestingly, the only truly solid performance the Rams put together this past season came in a 31-21 upset win over the Saints, a game in which they produced two turnovers and six sacks in limiting the Saints to just 283 total yards.
7. Looking forward to the conference championship games this weekend, one key stat to remember is that the Ravens are 7-0 against playoff teams thus far in 2011.
By: Dave Stringer — January 12, 2012 @ 2:38 pm
 Sanchez is under off-season fire. 1. In what seems like a post-season ritual, anonymous Jets players have used the early part of the off-season to rip the play of the team’s starting quarterback. Brett Favre got the treatment after his only season with the team, roasted by his teammates for his performance and work habits although it was well known that he played most of the season with an injured throwing shoulder that affected his arm strength, velocity and accuracy. Mark Sanchez got the Favre treatment this week with reports that his teammates felt he didn’t work hard enough, was coddled by the organization and that they would prefer the team acquire a veteran signal caller (with Peyton Manning mentioned as a possibility) to either challenge Sanchez or take over as the team’s starting quarterback. As was the case with Favre, few of them were willing to mention that Sanchez had led the team to two AFC Championship game appearances during his three years in the league and came within a game of qualifying for the post-season this year despite getting little help from top wide receiver, Santonio Holmes, who clearly quit on the team. While Sanchez has not developed as quickly as the team would like and remains maddeningly inconsistent, the mercurial Holmes was at least as much to blame for the team’s poor offensive showing.
2. Sticking with the Manning to Jets conjecture, that possibility seems remote for several reasons. First off, while the Colts have given every indication that they plan to use the first overall pick in the draft to acquire Stanford quarterback Andrew Luck, they have also stated that Manning will return to the team in 2012 provided he is healthy enough to play. In addition, recent reports indicate that both Manning and the Colts are willing to renegotiate his contract, pushing a $28-million option payment currently due prior to the start of the league’s new year to a later date. Taken together, this would seem to indicate that the odds are strong that Manning will be a Colt in 2012. Even if that fails to transpire, a Manning to the Jets scenario is unlikely. The Rex Ryan led Jets have a personality that seems ill-suited to Manning’s buttoned down, business-like style. In addition, given the dissension on the team, it is easy to question why Manning would come to New York when he would likely have at least a half-dozen other suitors to choose from. Finally, having played his entire career in a dome stadium, he would likely choose to suit up for another team that plays in a dome or in a warm weather location.
3. Despite enjoying a solid four-year run together in Atlanta, Falcons general manager Thomas Dimitroff and head coach Mike Smith were put on notice this week by owner Arthur Blank that he expects the team to win a Super Bowl. The Falcons have put together four consecutive winning seasons under Dimitroff’s and Smith’s leadership, including qualifying for the post-season three times. Further, they have made several astute personnel decisions including the decision to draft quarterback Matt Ryan with the third pick in their first draft together in 2008. However, they have failed to win a post-season game and Smith was heavily criticized after the team’s 24-2 playoff loss to the Giants for his decision to gamble twice on fourth down with the team in field goal range as well as the play calls on those gambles, one of which included a quarterback sneak with an empty backfield. Blank stopped short of saying that it was Super Bowl or bust for his solid managerial duo but the implication was clear – more is expected in Atlanta in 2012.
4. With first-year offensive coordinator Jay Gruden receiving interest as a head coaching candidate, the Bengals moved this week to lock him by agreeing to a three-year contract extension. Despite having to start a rookie quarterback in Andy Dalton and use another rookie, the fourth overall selection in the draft in A.J. Green, as the team’s leading wide receiver, the Gruden-led offense finished 21st in total offense and 18th in total points. Considering the Bengals schedule included two games against both Pittsburgh and Baltimore (the first and third ranked defenses in the league), those results are more impressive than they appear. The Gruden signing is further evidence that the Cincinnati organization is now prepared to move aggressively in building a perennial contender in the difficult AFC North division.
5. Look for Buffalo to use the draft or free agency to help bulk up the depth chart at wide receiver. Steve Johnson, the team’s leading wide receiver in each of the past two seasons, is an unrestricted free agent but the Bills have been in discussions with his agent regarding a long-term contract. Look for Johnson to sign long-term or for the Bills to place the franchise tag on him. Opposite Johnson, the Bills had a plethora of options in 2011 but emerged to claim the starting position. Marcus Easley, the team’s 2010 4th round pick, has excellent size and speed but missed the season with a head ailment. David Nelson has solid size at 6’5” and excels in the slot but struggles on the outside. Donald Jones struggled with injuries and consistency and seems destined for a backup.
6. In Arizona, Kevin Kolb suffered through a miserable first season in the dessert and the word out of the Cardinals organization is that backup John Skelton will be given at least a cursory opportunity to win the job in 2012. Kolb figures to get a significant lead in that battle given his lucrative contract and the fact the team gave up former 1st round pick Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie as well as a 2nd round pick in order to acquire his services. However, his 2-6 record in 2011 pales in comparison to Skelton’s 6-2. If Skelton improves his accuracy and Kolb continues his inability to stay healthy, Skelton figures to get an opportunity to claim the starting job, if not in training camp, then at some point in 2012.
By: Dave Stringer — January 5, 2012 @ 4:02 pm
1. The head-coaching carousel began twisting this week with the information and misinformation campaigns in full swing. Of all the big name candidates, Jeff Fisher is the only coach that is a virtual guarantee to be coaching somewhere in 2012 given that Bill Cowher, Jon Gruden, Brian Billick et al seem content to continue their lucrative careers in television without the daily grind that comes with leading a team. Fisher’s first stop was in Miami with a tour of the team’s facilities and a helicopter ride on offer to woo the long time Tennessee coach. Prior to Fisher’s trip to St. Louis, the rumor mill was hot that Miami was his top choice. He wasn’t sold on Rams quarterback Sam Bradford and Miami had the obvious benefits of Florida over Missouri, especially in terms of attracting free agents. The common thread amongst all those rumors was to increase Fisher’s leverage with respect to contract terms and organizational clout. However, while the Miami and St. Louis organizations are clearly hot for Fisher, the fact remains that several high profile, recycled head coaches have failed in recent seasons (witness Mike Shanahan’s struggles in Washington) and Fisher compiled a solid, yet unspectacular record of 142-120 while in Tennessee.
2. Raiders head coach Hue Jackson went off on his squad after his team’s disappointing 38-26 loss to the Chargers ended Oakland’s season. With Denver losing to the Chiefs, an Oakland win would have propelled them into the playoffs and, at least partially, justified Jackson’s decision to trade the team’s 1st round pick in the upcoming draft and a 2nd round pick in 2012 (which would have been upgraded to a 1st round pick had the Raiders qualified for the postseason) for quarterback Carson Palmer. When owner Al Davis passed away this season, Jackson filled the vacuum left behind and essentially took control of the organization. However, with the Raiders compiling a 4-2 record prior to the trade and going just 4-6 with Palmer in the lineup, Jackson’s decision-making is certainly being called into question within the organization, making his comments this week that he will become even more involved within the organization seem almost ludicrous. Look for owner Mark Davis to reel in Jackson’s authority and install a general manager with the power to either oversee Jackson or at least provide a strong counterbalance to his spontaneous, some might say reckless, decision-making.
3. Staying in the Bay area, San Francisco head coach Jim Harbaugh stated the obvious this week when he reportedly informed quarterback Alex Smith that he intends to re-sign him in the offseason. Credit Harbaugh with making the unpopular decision this past offseason to stick with the former first overall selection in the draft despite the cries for change coming from the team’s fan base. Smith had done little during his first six years in the league to justify Harbaugh’s faith in him but the former Stanford coach justified his decision based on game tape and Smith having had to deal with numerous offensive coordinators. That faith was rewarded with Smith having his finest season as a pro, setting career-highs in completion percentage (61.4%), passing yards (3,150) and rushing yards (179) while throwing just five interceptions against 17 touchdowns. It will be interesting to see what type of contract the team is willing to lavish on Smith, with rookie 2nd round pick Colin Kaepernick waiting in the wings. Look for the 49ers to re-sign Smith to a modest, four or five-year contract.
4. Reports out of Chicago indicate that quarterback Jay Cutler went to head coach Lovie Smith to inform him that he preferred that offensive coordinator Mike Martz, whose contract was up, not be re-signed. Smith agreed and the Bears will now look to find another coordinator after two up-and-down years with Martz calling the shots. While Martz may not have been Cutler’s favorite, his play calling and coaching helped Cutler pad his statistics given Martz’ propensity for throwing the football. Unfortunately for both, Chicago simply didn’t possess an offensive line solid enough to pass protect for the five and seven-step drops Martz prefers or wide receivers skilled and/or fast enough to run the deep patterns his offense is predicated on. In retrospect, Smith’s decision to hire Martz was a poor one since the team was intent on attempting to turn Devin Hester into their top receiver and going with mid to low-round picks (such as Earl Bennett and Johnny Knox) at the wide receiver position.
 It's another off-season of uncertainty for Vincent Jackson. 5. As any fantasy football owner with a modicum of experience knows, Redskins head coach Mike Shanahan is renowned for his unexplainable decisions at the running back position with playing time doled out based on no consistent formula. While it was encouraging to hear the Redskins head coach endorse both of his rookie runners this week (4th round pick Roy Helu and 6th round pick Evan Royster), look for the team’s running back situation to be a fantasy mess once again in 2012. Helu had a number of solid outings but couldn’t stay healthy while Royster didn’t even make the team coming out of the preseason. It seems highly unlikely that Shanahan will hand the running back reigns over to a pair of second year players, meaning unrestricted free agent Tim Hightower, whose season ended after he suffered a torn ACL in Week 7, is likely to be brought back. If Hightower or another veteran is added to the roster, look for a committee approach at the position once again in 2012.
6. While San Diego owner Dean Spanos made the surprising decision to retain both general manager A.J. Smith and head coach Norv Turner, there is a decent possibility that there could be major changes in the team’s group of receivers. Vincent Jackson, the team’s top wide receiver for several years, is a free agent once again and may want to move on given his unhappiness with his contract situation over each of the past two off-seasons. If the Chargers decide against offering Jackson a long-term deal, they may decide to place the franchise tag on him to secure his services for the 2012 season. Malcom Floyd is under contract for next season and played well opposite Jackson but has been injury-prone, missing nine games over the past two seasons. Slot receiver Patrick Crayton is unlikely to return given the presence of rookie 3rd round pick Vincent Brown, who played well when given an opportunity. At tight end, Antonio Gates suffered through another injury-marred season and may not be retained given the $10.4-million he is due to be paid next season.
By: Dave Stringer — December 30, 2011 @ 11:08 am
1. With the regular season about to end, several coaches around the league will have their fate decided over the next week with several pink slips expected to be handed out this coming Monday. Jacksonville (Jack Del Rio), Kansas City (Todd Haley) and Miami (Tony Sparano) fired their opening day coaches in midseason and there are four more potential firings. Let’s start in San Diego where Norv Turner has been rumored to be a coaching casualty for weeks. Perennial contenders and 2007 AFC Conference finalists in Turner’s initial season, he was not able to build on early success and with this week’s 38-10 blowout loss to the Lions, the Chargers will miss the postseason for a second consecutive season. That is not an acceptable result to owner Dean Spanos given the team’s talented personnel and Turner will almost certainly pay the price on Monday.
2.In St. Louis, the rumors have been flying wildly about who will replace Steve Spagnolo but there are just as many reports that owner Stan Kroenke will stick with him for a fourth season in 2012. With a 10-37 record during his three-year stay and this year’s 2-13 record heading into a Week 17 matchup against the 49ers, the numbers would indicate that this should be Spagnolo’s last season in St. Louis. However, injuries to key personnel have decimated the Rams at quarterback, along the offensive line and in the defensive backfield which may prompt Kroenke to bring Spagnolo back for the final year of his contract in 2012. If Spagnolo is let go, he will be a hot defensive coordinator option with the Eagles and Giants the front runners to secure his services.
3. While Spagnolo appears to be the head coach most likely to be fired outside of Turner, the Bucs Raheem Morris has earned that distinction. After finishing with a surprisingly solid 10-6 record in his second season as the team’s head coach, the Bucs have slumped badly in 2011, currently sitting at 4-11 and in the midst of a nine game losing streak. A closer look reveals that the Bucs 2010 record was more than a bit misleading, with five wins of three points or less, a schedule that included the weak NFC West and just one win against a quality opponent (a Week 17 win against a New Orleans team that had nothing to play for and pulled several starters in the fourth quarter). Look for general manager Mark Dominik to jettison Morris and the Bucs to move in another direction. With a talented young roster, the Tampa Bay job should attract plenty of solid coaching candidates.
4. Other coaches on the hot seat include Indy’s Jim Caldwell, the Eagles Andy Reid and the Giants Tom Coughlin. Caldwell has been hamstrung by a squad that was devoid of talent behind Peyton Manning and his future seems tied to Manning’s. If Manning returns, the team will likely attempt to re-sign many of their veteran free agents and bring Caldwell back in an attempt to make a Super Bowl run. While Reid has taken plenty of criticism for his team’s poor season, he is the league’s most tenured coach and his comments in recent weeks seem to indicate that he is secure for the 2012 season. The Giants have been perhaps the league’s most inconsistent team in 2011 but can reach the post-season with a win this week in a home game against a Cowboys squad whose quarterback will be playing with a bum throwing hand. If Coughlin’s Giants squeak into the postseason, he likely secures his return for next season.
 AP won't be a first-rounder in 2012. 5. Minnesota running back Adrian Peterson suffered a gruesome knee injury this week against the Redskins, tearing both the anterior cruciate and medial collateral ligaments in his left knee. While the Vikings have said they expect their star running back to be ready for the 2012 season opener, that assumption may be a bit unrealistic given that he will have a recovery period of just over eight months, a short period of time for that type of injury. Peterson is a possibility to open next season on the physically unable to perform list which would require him to miss at least the first six games of the season. Even if he is ready by opening day, he will not be the same player he was prior to the injury for at least the 2012 season. Based on that prognosis, Peterson should rank no better than an upper tier RB2 for next year and Toby Gerhart merits consideration as an early season flex option in larger leagues.
6. Jets running back LaDainian Tomlinson announced this week that he may retire at the conclusion of this season. A free agent at season’s end, Tomlinson has assumed a traditional backup role to starter Shonn Greene after being used in more of a timeshare role during his initial season in New York (2010). With just 224 rushing yards to go along with 38 receptions for 426 yards, Tomlinson ceased being a useful flex option for fantasy purposes. Having spent 4th round draft picks on Joe McKnight in 2010 and Bilal Powell this season, the Jets seem unlikely to spend a high draft pick in the 2012 draft to find Greene’s backup for next season. Dynasty leaguers should consider McKnight the frontrunner to assume that role although he did little as a rookie and has struggled to run the ball effectively during his first two years in the league. In the only start of his career, he carried the ball 32 times for 158 yards against Buffalo in Week 17 of the 2010 season.
By: Aaron Williams — December 27, 2011 @ 12:35 pm
Welcome to Tuesday Morning Buzz! As the dust settles on Week 16, all but one NFC and two AFC playoff spots are decided. In the NFC, the Giants and Cowboys will decide the division winner next Sunday; in the AFC, the West is still open and there is room for one more wild card. In addition, this week was a fantastic display of why the NFL is the most entertaining league in the world.
Texans–Colts
Dan Orlovsky for MVP! Alright, it could be pride that has fueled the past couple of wins for the Colts, but what an interesting situation the world’s greatest competition for the No. 1 draft pick has become. St. Louis and Indianapolis both have two wins at the end of Week 16, and Minnesota is only one behind. Ironically, all three of these teams already have quarterbacks with a lot of promise. It should be an interesting Week 17 at the bottom of the totem pole this year… For the Texans, it was the Arian Foster show, as it should have been. Foster should easily be the No. 1 fantasy pick again next year, and consider yourself in good shape if you get him.
49ers–Seahawks
The 49ers have a fantastic record in the regular season and have played some outstanding defense all year. This team reminds me of the Jets of the past few years and the Titans in their final year with Haynesworth. While the defense is outstanding, the offense is underwhelming. I’m curious whether this defense can keep an offense like New Orleans or Green Bay under 30 points so that the offense can ride its coattails. Four field goals and one touchdown will not keep the Niners alive in the playoffs. For the Hawks, the only bit of information you need to know is that Marshawn Lynch has come into his own in Seattle. He was a hard runner in Buffalo, but he has gone full-on Beast Mode in Seattle. With that said, look forward to paying way too high a price for Lynch next year. Yours truly will not be buying the hype for a third-round pick.
Eagles–Cowboys
This was the game I thought Dallas would play last week against Tampa, but the Buccaneers are so painfully awful that the Cowboys could have shot themselves in both feet and still come away with a win. Now, Romo did go down this week with only two passes and no completions, but this Eagles defense has been far from stout all season. If you lose in a shootout without your star quarterback, then that’s the breaks. If you lose 20-7 against an underachieving defense, even without your star quarterback, then that’s on you. That being said, I’m starting all the Dallas starters I can get my hands on in Week 17, as that will likely be the most meaningful game next week. For the Eagles, McCoy was an utter disappointment because of an ankle injury. I sure hope all you McCoy owners didn’t get eliminated due to one stinker!
P.S. Speaking of McCoy, he is likely to be in competition with Arian Foster for No. 1 next year. He’ll be good, but I think the game plan may change with a fresh season; I’d go with Foster with the first overall.
 C.J. Spiller: Will there be a timeshare in Buffalo next year? Tebow–Bills
Well, just when the sportscasters were starting to believe, Tebow has hit a two- game slide. I can’t believe he allowed the Bills to score 40 points. After all, he was responsible for 100 percent of the points scored by Denver (extra points excluded), but it turns out that one man can’t win a game alone. Seems as though conventional wisdom and Tebow are the only things that played out for Denver on Saturday. Tebow is likely to be a high draft pick next year if his status doesn’t change as starter, but I’m way too worried about injury in this option offense to take a chance on him. Unless he drops into the eighth or ninth round, I’m probably finding someone else. For the Bills, C.J. Spiller is proving he was worth the first-round pick. Unfortunately for fantasy owners, this means that a timeshare is likely to evolve in Buffalo next year. This will likely result in a situation similar to Carolina’s backfield, where the great play-making ability of each running back will be either neutralized or minimized. Looks for Jackson to go too high; but Spiller may be a steal, especially in leagues where he can play as either a wide receiver or a running back.
Cardinals–Bengals
The best thing in this game was Jerome Simpson’s awesome front-flip touchdown. Seriously, did you see that thing? Better than Reggie Bush’s 5-yard leap into the end zone from a year ago. If you haven’t seen it, YouTube it. Dalton also left a present for daring fantasy owners by rushing for 48 yards on top of his usually stellar passing numbers. For the Cards, Larry Fitzgerald also stuffed your stocking with 105 yards and touchdown. I hope that was enough to keep you going, as this Cardinals offense hasn’t generated all the points we had hoped for in the offseason. Look for Fitzgerald to be a quiet (and smart) second-round pick next year.
Jaguars–Titans
The Titans decided to put Hasselbeck back in at quarterback in hopes of passing the Bengals for a playoff spot, and, at least against the Jaguars, it worked. At this point, I would have been looking to see what the talented Jake Locker could do with the playoffs on the line. I can see the value of a veteran quarterback in the playoff crunch, but the chances were so slim that I would have let the draft pick pay for itself. For the Jags, MJD got his weekly touchdown and also pulled out 100 yards. He is has been a draft day mystery, as his injury and concerns over the dismal offense weigh against elite talent. If MJD falls to the late second or third round next year, I’m picking him up, starting him, and never watching him play.
P.S. Jags games are usually blacked out anyway, so you may not have to worry about seeing too many MJD performances.
Raiders–Chiefs
Despite all the hype over Carson Palmer, Darren McFadden, Michael Bush, the speed of their receivers, et cetera, the two most important players on the Raiders’ roster both play on special teams. Shane Lechler is an absolute weapon in the field position game, and Sebastian Janikowski is MVP of the team. I would be letting Janikowski kick every time he’s within 65 (and maybe even 70) yards of the goal post, especially if I’m down in the fourth quarter. For the Chiefs, I don’t know how much fantasy advice there is, but the Kansas City defense has really turned their season around. Look for Romeo Crennel to be the head coach next season and for Jamaal Charles to be the centerpiece of a conservative run-first offense. Charles will likely be a draft day steal, as concern over his knee injury will be front page.
Dolphins–Patkowskis
As has been rehashed multiple times this year, the Dolphins haven’t really had a quarterback since Dan Marino. As far as this season is concerned, the quarterback position has been especially vexing. In the Christmas spirit, I’ll let my main man Charles Dickens describe it to you:
“ Henne was dead: to begin with. There is no doubt whatever about that. The register of his burial was signed by the head coach, the athletic director, the physical therapist, and the chief fanbase. Bill Parcells signed it: and Moore’s name was good upon ‘Change, for anything he chose to put his hand to. Old Henne was dead as a door-nail.”
After Henne’s loss of the reins, Matt Moore came in and the awfulness of the Dolphins could only be out-stunk by the Colts’ lackluster play. However, when the Dolphins saw that they might be able to get a premier first-round quarterback, they promptly went out and played the most dominant football they have played since Marino was breaking records. Now they are not only miles away from the first pick, they’re one win away from not even finishing last in their division! Can you imagine if the Bills get Matt Barkley or another great quarterback and Miami has to stick with Matt Moore?
P.S. You don’t need my help with the Patkowskis. Start Gost and Gron, Brady and Welker always.
Giants–Jets
Hopefully now the inane “Eli Manning for MVP” talk can officially die. I don’t know how many sportscasters I’ve heard drone on about how Tebow’s play is unsustainable and all of the comebacks are luck, and in the next breath say that Eli deserves MVP due to his fourth-quarter comebacks. Just because Peyton is out doesn’t mean we need to over-glorify someone else with Manning as their last name. Eli has been phenomenal, but frankly his brother has proven to be far more important to his team without even taking a snap. If Victor Cruz had not turned a short pass into a 99-yard touchdown, Manning’s day could’ve turned out truly awful. That being said, the same logic that applies to the Cowboys applies to the Giants next week: Get all of the starters out there. For the Jets, I wouldn’t start any of them if I could help it. They are in the thick of it for a wild-card spot, but they’re playing in Miami where the passion to be mediocre next year is in full force.
Rams–Steelers
If you are a Steelers opponent, the last thing you want to do is play their style of football. Clemens and Batch are almost washes at quarterback, and their general ineffectiveness prevents any wide receiver talent from outshining the other. This leaves it up to running backs and the defense to win the game. When that happens, the Steelers will beat you 27-0. The Rams need an offense in a bad, bad, way. Yours truly is a Sam Bradford believer, but he’s got to be drooling over even the Seattle and Denver receiving corps at this point. For the Steelers, I don’t want anybody but Mendenhall and their DST next week. Without Roethlisberger, I don’t want any part of the passing game, especially in Cleveland where the atmosphere kills offenses.
Vikings–Redskins
Adrian Peterson will not be ready for the beginning of next season and the quality of the Minnesota offense will be called into question. If Peterson drops, you have to pick him up and stash him for the second half. All Day could be the steal of next year’s draft. Minnesota brings a Bears team to the Metrodome in Week 17, and Toby Gerhart and Percy Harvin should have mildly successful days. For the Skins, Graham Gano did his best David Akers impression and tried to carry the team on his back. Unfortunately for him, he doesn’t have the San Francisco defense backing him up.
P.S. Do you remember earlier this year when Shanahan offered a glowing review of Ryan Torain? In fact, remember when he drafted Ryan Torain? Well, after being a healthy scratch last week, Torain got four carries to the 19 of the immortal Evan Royster. Yikes.
Panthers–Buccaneers
In Week 16, the Panthers scored 48 points against a Buccaneers defense that allowed the hot-as-soft-serve San Francisco offense an equal amount in Week 5. In Week 17, the Panthers are headed to New Orleans and the Superdome. Needless to say, the Saints will likely score more points and will thus provide fewer chances for Williams and Stewart to repeat their Week 16 performances. Look for these two to lose a lot of championship rounds for a lot of fantasy owners. For the Buccaneers, it’s best to just hope your influential coach makes it through this sophomore slump and is allowed to come back next year. Tampa is another team that I would not trust Week 17 to.
Browns–Ravens
Just when every last fantasy owner dropped Peyton Hillis with only Baltimore and Pittsburgh remaining, he showed up against a tough run defense for 112 yards. I wouldn’t count on that continuing next week, and I wouldn’t be surprised if Hillis gets started and loses a lot of championship matchups as well. Stay away from him if you can help it. For the Ravens, this was not a game to remember. If Ray Rice hadn’t taken a pass 42 yards to the house, Seneca Wallace may have bested Joe Flacco in the all-important passer rating stat. If the Browns prove to be more efficient than you in any facet of the game, especially in passing, you have serious issues. Look for the Ravens to try to swing back and prove themselves next week against the Bengals.
Chargers–Lions
My preseason favorite San Diego Chargers ended their season with a whimper as they got unceremoniously blown out by Detroit at Ford Field. Look for an angry Chargers team to be at their best and put up a lot of points in the final weeks of the season as they first head to Oakland. There is no one the Chargers hate more than the Raiders. They will try their best to wreak havoc on Oakland’s postseason hopes. For the Lions, they head to Green Bay and try to get the No. 5 seed to play the winner of the NFC East rather than the Saints or 49ers. Look for the suddenly reignited Detroit offense to put up a metric ton of points against a leaky Green Bay defense, even in Green Bay. Start Kevin Smith in all formats.
Bears–Packers
As the MVP race between Rodgers and Brees comes to a close, Rodgers made a fantastic statement for his case. This season, 283 yards seems almost disappointing, but five touchdowns is still more than impressive. Rodgers’play has been truly dominant this year, and I don’t believe it has been stated as firmly as it was on Saturday. When James Jones—who is not Greg Jennings—comes in for 50 yards and two touchdowns against a good defense, you know it’s the quarterback making it happen. However, look for the Packers to rest their starters after a quarter or two next week, as the game is meaningless for their seed or advantage. As for the Bears, their season was likely done weeks ago when Cutler went down, was nearly sealed when Forte followed, and is now over mathematically. Kahlil Bell is the only Bear, including their defense, that you want next week, and I’m not too excited about him.
$#^% Chris Collinsworth Says
Betty White on her excitement for Monday Night Football:
“I’ve been screaming “Who Dat!” at my cats since breakfast!”
This was a fantastic game. All the talk of stats, records, and playoff seeding was a godsend for a fantasy/statistics lover such as myself. On top of that, two quarterbacks put on elite displays, and a mess of offensive stars put on a show. Best MNF game of the year!
Falcons–Saints
As stated above, what an amazing game! There was a lull for a majority of the third and fourth quarters, but it all turned around as Brees broke Dan Marino’s single-season yardage record. A great comparison made during the game was that Marino broke the record at 90 yards more per game than his competitors, but in a year where quarterbacks are breaking yardage records all over, Brees was 98 yards better than the average of his competitors. Start all your Saints next week as they will try to add on to their individual records and, more importantly, try to get a first-round bye. For the Falcons, it was 61 pass attempts versus 14 rush attempts (two of which were scrambles by Ryan). They were down by two or more scores for the majority of the game, but it just goes to prove that this passing game cannot do it alone.
P.S. Sadly, I think Turner has reached the end of his dominant days. The Falcons have made liberal use of the mighty running back and he may be prematurely wearing down. I’m not certain he will make it back to a starter’s role once his current contract is up.
Brees for MVP!
| QB Comparison |
| Brees |
Rodgers |
| Wins: 12 |
Wins: 14 |
| Passer Rating: 108.4 |
Passer Rating: 122.5 |
| ESPN Total QBR: 85.2 |
ESPN Total QBR: 82.7 |
| Yards: 5,087 |
Yards: 4,643 |
| Yards per Attempt: 8.18 |
Yards per Attempt: 9.25 |
| Touchdowns: 41 |
Touchdowns: 45 |
| Interceptions: 13 |
Interceptions: 6 |
| Fumbles: 0 |
Fumbles: 3 (0 lost) |
| Completion %: 70.7 |
Completion %: 68.3 |
| Completions/Attempt: 440/622 |
Completions/Attempt: 343/502 |
|
Just a quick update on the stats for the MVP race. Rodgers certainly has the edge on touchdowns and interceptions (though I wouldn’t blame either quarterback for a single one of the INTs on their stat sheet). I urge you to look deeper into the stats if you’re interested (total first downs, third down conversion percentage, etc) and find that if you balance it all, the stats are dead even or barely in Rodgers’ favor (see Total QBR). And with the benefit of the Dan Marino record and the lovefest on Monday Night Football, the hype battle may also be even. I will not be surprised if Rodgers wins the MVP, but unless something drastic happens in Week 17, I will always argue that Brees deserved the honor. Even if Brees doesn’t get it, I still believe the playoffs will tip the scales in his favor, post Super Bowl, which has always been my contention.
And that’s it! Week 16 was another action-packed display of amazing talent, fire, and passion that proved why we all stuck through the annoying lockout media circus mumbo jumbo all summer. Next week, look for playoff contending teams to be the staples of your lineups, and leave players from teams like the Patriots and Packers on your bench if you have the option. Let me know how you’re doing in your fantasy leagues with one week left… I’d love to hear about it!
By: Dave Stringer — December 23, 2011 @ 11:25 am
 Are these the final days for Manning in Indy? 1. In what has to rank as a major surprise, Colts owner Jim Irsay revealed that if Peyton Manning regains his health, the future Hall of Fame quarterback will be back with Indianapolis for the 2012 season. At the same time, Irsay also said that if there was a quarterback in the draft, the Colts would not hesitate to draft one. Irsay’s comments are the clearest signal yet that the Colts will take the high road with their long time star quarterback and draft Stanford’s Andrew Luck if Indianapolis finishes the season as the league’s last ranked team. That possibility seemed a foregone conclusion two weeks ago but wins over Tennessee and Houston have given the Colts a chance to finish ahead of the Minnesota Vikings and St. Louis Rams. If the Colts win at Jacksonville in Week 17 and the Rams and Vikings both lose their last two games, the Colts will lose the opportunity to select Luck. If Irsay is to be taken at his word, there are only two scenarios in which Manning does not suit up for Indianapolis next year. First, he doesn’t regain his health. Second, he requests to be released or traded to another team, paving the way for Luck or another rookie quarterback to start a new era in Indianapolis in 2012.
2. With the firing of Todd Haley in Kansas City, defensive coordinator Romeo Crennel took over as the team’s interim coach and was given little to no chance of succeeding Haley as the team’s next head coach. However, an upset win last week over the previously undefeated Green Bay Packers and some help from other teams has given the Chiefs an opportunity to win the AFC West division crown for a second consecutive year. If the Chiefs beat the Raiders at home this week and the Broncos lose to the Bills, next week’s Chiefs-Broncos game in Denver could decide the division winner provided San Diego does not win both of their final games (road games in Detroit and Oakland). If the Chiefs somehow pull that off, Crennel could be the head man in Kansas City in 2012.
3. Bills fans in Buffalo couldn’t have been too pleased when owner Ralph Wilson announced this week that the team is in talks to continue playing games in Toronto in upcoming seasons. While the Bills haven’t received much, if any, of a home field advantage when playing in Toronto, the arrangement has been a lucrative one for the small market team with Buffalo receiving a staggering $78-million for allowing Toronto to host eight games. If Rogers Communications, which hosts the Toronto games, is willing to approach the $10-million per game mark, Wilson will almost certainly take them up on their offer. In his recap of the season, Wilson also indicated that he was pleased with the play of quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick but that he needed help on offense, particularly at wide receiver. Those comments seem to indicate that Fitzpatrick will lead the team for at least the next few years and that wide receiver Steve Johnson, a free agent at season’s end, will be back in Buffalo on a long term contract extension or as a franchise player.
4. Browns head coach Pat Shurmur refused to endorse Colt McCoy as his starting quarterback when he returns from the concussion he suffered against Pittsburgh in Week 14. That means Seneca Wallace could finish the season as the team’s starter, leading the team this week against Baltimore and in Week 17 against the Steelers. If that transpires, McCoy will not have another chance this season to prove to Browns management that he should be the team’s starter in 2012. With general manager Tom Heckert stating that the team has seen enough of McCoy to evaluate him and McCoy showing only minor improvement over his 2010 rookie season, his only hope of entering next season as the team’s starter is if Heckert and the team’s management determines the lack of playmakers on offense is what is held McCoy back from making a big leap forward in 2011.
5. The Cardinals quietly placed linebacker Joey Porter on injured reserve this week, ending his season and likely signaling the end of the career of one of the league’s most colorful players. Porter suffered a knee injury that kept him out of much of this season but Arizona has been pleased with the player of young linebackers such as Sam Acho and O’Brien Schofield, making Porter’s return in 2012 unlikely. He had stints in Pittsburgh and Miami before signing with Arizona prior to the 2010 season and accumulated 98 sacks during his 13-year career.
6. Rams running back Steven Jackson has been remarkably consistent despite playing for a St. Louis team that has been consistently bad since he entered the league in the 2004 draft. Aside from his rookie season when Jackson split carries with Marshall Faulk, he has topped 1,000 rushing yards every season and is on the verge of his seventh consecutive season of reaching that plateau, sitting just 34 yards shy of the mark heading into this week’s game in Pittsburgh. If Jackson reaches the 1,000 yard mark for a seventh consecutive season, he will become only the seventh player in league history to accomplish that feat.
7. Bills second-year running back C.J. Spiller was on the verge of being labeled a bust prior to his improved play since taking over for the injured Fred Jackson beginning in Week 11. However, head coach Chan Gailey ended any speculation that Spiller might take over as the team’s starter next season, stating that Spiller lacked Jackson’s size and that he wasn’t a 20 plus carry a week player. Although Spiller won’t unseat Jackson in the starting line up, his run of solid performances ensures that he will be a solid flex option in 2012.
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