Football is simple at its very core, but it is a very complex game to evaluate and analyze because 11 men try to work in harmony roughly 60 times per game, while 11 other men make it their job to disrupt that harmony. Pro football is not pro basketball in that a team can clear out one side of the court when things break down and the offense can still score. Pro football is also not pro baseball in that one player can defeat a pitcher and eight fielders by timing his swing just right. Even as great as Barry Sanders was, he never beat a defense all by himself.

In football, every player needs some help to accomplish their goal. That is part of what makes football so great and part of what makes it so highly unpredictable. The violence of the game - even by the tamer standards now - adds another element to the equation that is difficult to quantify.

Regardless, it does not mean we should not try. Over the last month, I have evaluated the weekly matchups for 500-plus players. Analyzing matchups alone requires me to make more than 8,000 "decisions". Each year, my goal is to give those who put their faith in my evaluations the confidence that they have the best draft-day tool at their disposal. Even if my matchup-grading process is only 70 percent accurate, that is still a significant advantage over any analyst who does not consider it at all. It is not as if it serves as much more than a tiebreaker for me.

Fantasy football is a stock market game, and the job of an analyst is to identify when stocks are poised to skyrocket or ready to tank. While last year's results help fantasy managers/analysts set the table for the following season, they are merely a starting point. Fantasy rankings and drafting need to be predictive, not reactive. I have taken this approach for almost 20 years. While some of my processes have changed in that time, the main goal has not.

The Success Score Index (SSI) below is powered in large part by my target and carry predictions. As always, the matchup grades are included in the formula. SSI allows me to compare apples to oranges across positions. Perhaps just as importantly, I have been able to eliminate most of the guesswork across different scoring systems (PPR, standard, etc.).

For all of those unfamiliar with my Big Boards, allow me to explain the color-coding system before we start:

Red - For lower-level players, a red matchup is the most difficult one a player can face. For a second- or third-tier player, drop your expectations for them at least one grade that week (i.e., from WR2 to WR3). For elite players, expect them to perform at least slightly worse that week.

Yellow - For lower-level players, he is a borderline start at best. For a second- or third-tier player, the slight edge goes to the defense in what is essentially a toss-up. For the elite players, expect slightly better than average production.

White - This one can go either way, but I favor the player over the matchup. Generally speaking, these matchups are winnable for all levels of players.

Green - For non-elite players, the stage is set for a player to have a productive day. For the elite player, this matchup could produce special numbers.

Note: Players with a next to their name have some degree of injury/character/holdout concern. In addition, I have added distinct tiers for this round of Big Boards (represented by the different colors in the "Pos" column).

Later this week, I will release my first Big Board for FFPC leagues. In the second and final round of Big Boards near the end of the preseason, I will rank at least 225 players and present my final rankings for kickers and defense/special teams.

Here is the scoring system that I used to rank the players in the PPR format:

Superflex Big Board (PPR) - Top 200 Rk Pos Player Tm SSI 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 1 QB1 Lamar Jackson BAL 11.9 2 WR1 Ja'Marr Chase CIN 11.6 3 RB1 Bijan Robinson ATL 11.1 4 QB2 Jayden Daniels WAS 10.8 5 QB3 Josh Allen BUF 10.8 6 WR2 CeeDee Lamb DAL 10.5 7 QB4 Jalen Hurts PHI 10.3 8 RB2 Jahmyr Gibbs DET 9.5 9 RB3 Christian McCaffrey SF 9.3 10 QB5 Joe Burrow CIN 8.9 11 WR3 Justin Jefferson MIN 7.9 12 QB6 Patrick Mahomes KC 7.7 13 RB4 Saquon Barkley PHI 6.8 14 QB7 Baker Mayfield TB 6.7 15 RB5 Derrick Henry BAL 6.5 16 QB8 Kyler Murray ARI 6.3 17 RB6 De'Von Achane MIA 6.2 18 WR4 Malik Nabers NYG 6.2 19 QB9 Caleb Williams CHI 6.2 20 WR5 Amon-Ra St. Brown DET 6.0 21 QB10 Brock Purdy SF 5.9 22 QB11 Dak Prescott DAL 5.8 23 QB12 Bo Nix DEN 5.7 24 QB13 J.J. McCarthy MIN 5.6 25 QB14 Justin Fields NYJ 5.6 26 WR6 Drake London ATL 5.6 27 RB7 Bucky Irving TB 5.4 28 RB8 Ashton Jeanty LV 5.4 29 WR7 Puka Nacua LAR 5.3 30 TE1 Brock Bowers LV 5.2 31 WR8 Brian Thomas Jr. JAC 5.2 32 QB15 Jordan Love GB 5.1 33 QB16 Drake Maye NE 5.1 34 RB9 Chase Brown CIN 5.1 35 TE2 Trey McBride ARI 5.1 36 QB17 Trevor Lawrence JAC 4.9 37 QB18 Justin Herbert LAC 4.9 38 QB19 C.J. Stroud HOU 4.9 39 WR9 Nico Collins HOU 4.9 40 RB10 Jonathan Taylor IND 4.8 41 WR10 Ladd McConkey LAC 4.7 42 WR11 A.J. Brown PHI 4.7 43 QB20 Jared Goff DET 4.5 44 QB21 Bryce Young CAR 4.3 45 WR12 Davante Adams LAR 4.0 46 RB11 Josh Jacobs GB 4.0 47 QB22 Tua Tagovailoa MIA 3.9 48 WR13 Garrett Wilson NYJ 3.8 49 WR14 Jaxon Smith-Njigba SEA 3.7 50 WR15 Tee Higgins CIN 3.5 51 RB12 Kenneth Walker SEA 3.4 52 RB13 Kyren Williams LAR 3.3 53 WR16 Tetairoa McMillan CAR 3.2 54 WR17 DeVonta Smith PHI 3.2 55 WR18 Terry McLaurin WAS 3.1 56 TE3 George Kittle SF 3.1 57 RB14 Omarion Hampton LAC 3.0 58 WR19 Tyreek Hill MIA 3.0 59 QB23 Matthew Stafford LAR 3.0 60 RB15 Breece Hall NYJ 2.9 61 RB16 Chuba Hubbard CAR 2.9 62 QB24 Cam Ward TEN 2.8 63 WR20 Calvin Ridley TEN 2.8 64 WR21 Marvin Harrison Jr. ARI 2.8 65 WR22 Jaylen Waddle MIA 2.7 66 WR23 Mike Evans TB 2.7 67 WR24 Jameson Williams DET 2.7 68 QB25 Geno Smith LV 2.6 69 RB17 Alvin Kamara NO 2.5 70 QB26 Michael Penix Jr. ATL 2.4 71 WR25 George Pickens DAL 2.2 72 WR26 D.J. Moore CHI 2.2 73 WR27 DK Metcalf PIT 2.1 74 WR28 Courtland Sutton DEN 2.1 75 WR29 Rome Odunze CHI 2.0 76 RB18 James Cook BUF 2.0 77 RB19 RJ Harvey DEN 1.9 78 RB20 TreVeyon Henderson NE 1.7 79 QB27 Daniel Jones IND 1.7 80 WR30 Stefon Diggs NE 1.6 81 WR31 Chris Olave NO 1.4 82 WR32 Rashee Rice KC 1.3 83 WR33 Travis Hunter JAC 1.3 84 TE4 Evan Engram DEN 1.3 85 WR34 Zay Flowers BAL 1.1 86 WR35 Xavier Worthy KC 1.0 87 TE5 T.J. Hockenson MIN 1.0 88 TE6 Travis Kelce KC 0.9 89 TE7 Mark Andrews BAL 0.9 90 RB21 James Conner ARI 0.8 91 TE8 Tucker Kraft GB 0.8 92 TE9 Sam LaPorta DET 0.8 93 RB22 David Montgomery DET 0.7 94 WR36 Khalil Shakir BUF 0.7 95 TE10 David Njoku CLE 0.6 96 RB23 Tony Pollard TEN 0.6 97 RB24 Aaron Jones MIN 0.5 98 WR37 Jakobi Meyers LV 0.5 99 QB28 Sam Darnold SEA 0.5 100 TE11 Jake Ferguson DAL 0.4 101 QB29 Aaron Rodgers PIT 0.4 102 WR38 Emeka Egbuka TB 0.4 103 RB25 D'Andre Swift CHI 0.2 104 WR39 Josh Downs IND 0.2 105 RB26 Kaleb Johnson PIT 0.2 106 WR40 Jauan Jennings SF 0.2 107 QB30 Tyler Shough NO 0.0 108 RB27 Jaylen Warren PIT -0.2 109 WR41 Michael Pittman Jr. IND -0.3 110 RB28 Isiah Pacheco KC -0.5 111 RB29 J.K. Dobbins DEN -0.5 112 WR42 Jayden Reed GB -0.5 113 WR44 Deebo Samuel WAS -0.7 114 WR45 Darnell Mooney ATL -0.8 115 WR43 Ricky Pearsall SF -0.8 116 TE12 Colston Loveland CHI -0.8 117 QB31 Russell Wilson NYG -0.9 118 WR46 Jerry Jeudy CLE -1.0 119 RB30 Tyjae Spears TEN -1.0 120 TE13 Hunter Henry NE -1.0 121 RB31 Jordan Mason MIN -1.1 122 TE14 Tyler Warren IND -1.1 123 WR47 Jayden Higgins HOU -1.2 124 WR48 Chris Godwin TB -1.2 125 RB32 Rhamondre Stevenson NE -1.4 126 TE15 Zach Ertz WAS -1.5 127 WR49 Jordan Addison MIN -1.6 128 WR50 Rashod Bateman BAL -1.6 129 WR51 Demario Douglas NE -1.7 130 TE16 Dalton Kincaid BUF -1.7 131 TE17 Kyle Pitts ATL -1.7 132 RB33 Tyrone Tracy Jr. NYG -1.8 133 TE18 Pat Freiermuth PIT -1.8 134 WR52 Rashid Shaheed NO -1.9 135 TE19 Brenton Strange JAC -2.0 136 WR53 Cedric Tillman CLE -2.0 137 RB34 Trey Benson ARI -2.0 138 RB35 Zach Charbonnet SEA -2.1 139 TE20 Elijah Arroyo SEA -2.1 140 WR54 Marquise Brown KC -2.2 141 TE21 Chigoziem Okonkwo TEN -2.3 142 RB36 Cam Skattebo NYG -2.3 143 WR55 Marvin Mims DEN -2.3 144 RB37 Brian Robinson Jr. WAS -2.3 145 RB38 Jaylen Wright MIA -2.4 146 WR56 Christian Kirk HOU -2.4 147 TE22 Dallas Goedert PHI -2.5 148 TE23 Theo Johnson NYG -2.6 149 TE24 Isaiah Likely BAL -2.6 150 RB39 Quinshon Judkins CLE -2.8 151 RB40 Bhayshul Tuten JAC -2.8 152 RB41 Javonte Williams DAL -2.8 153 RB42 Isaac Guerendo SF -2.9 154 WR57 Wan'Dale Robinson NYG -3.0 155 WR58 Matthew Golden GB -3.1 156 RB43 Braelon Allen NYJ -3.3 157 WR59 Tre Harris LAC -3.3 158 RB44 Kyle Monangai CHI -3.3 159 WR60 Darius Slayton NYG -3.4 160 RB45 Jaydon Blue DAL -3.5 161 WR61 Romeo Doubs GB -3.6 162 WR62 Dyami Brown JAC -3.6 163 RB46 Austin Ekeler WAS -3.7 164 WR63 Andrei Iosivas CIN -3.7 165 WR64 Dontayvion Wicks GB -3.8 166 RB47 Travis Etienne JAC -3.9 167 RB48 Najee Harris LAC -4.0 168 RB49 Nick Chubb HOU -4.0 169 WR65 Tyler Lockett TEN -4.1 170 WR66 Xavier Legette CAR -4.1 171 WR67 Cooper Kupp SEA -4.1 172 RB50 Brashard Smith KC -4.2 173 RB51 Rachaad White TB -4.2 174 WR68 Keon Coleman BUF -4.2 175 WR69 Adam Thielen CAR -4.3 176 WR70 Keenan Allen LAC -4.3 177 RB52 DJ Giddens IND -4.3 178 RB53 Woody Marks HOU -4.5 179 QB32 Joe Flacco CLE -4.5 180 RB54 MarShawn Lloyd GB -4.5 181 WR71 Elic Ayomanor TEN -4.6 182 WR72 Luther Burden III CHI -4.6 183 RB55 Dylan Sampson CLE -4.8 184 WR73 Josh Palmer BUF -4.8 185 RB56 Jacory Croskey-Merritt WAS -4.8 186 RB57 Justice Hill BAL -4.9 187 WR74 Jalen McMillan TB -5.0 188 WR75 Kayshon Boutte NE -5.0 189 WR76 Brandon Aiyuk SF -5.2 190 RB58 Tank Bigsby JAC -5.3 191 WR77 Michael Wilson ARI -5.3 192 RB59 Ray Davis BUF -5.4 193 WR78 Devaughn Vele DEN -5.5 194 WR79 Jalen Coker CAR -5.6 198 QB33 Jaxson Dart NYG -5.6 196 RB60 Joe Mixon HOU -5.6 197 RB61 Blake Corum LAR -5.8 198 RB62 Tyler Allgeier ATL -6.0 199 RB63 Sean Tucker TB -6.3 200 RB64 Will Shipley PHI -7.0

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