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Top 200 Big Board, Half-PPR: Version 1.0


Preseason Matchup Analysis

By Doug Orth | 8/7/25 |
PPR | Half-PPR


Football is simple at its very core, but it is a very complex game to evaluate and analyze because 11 men try to work in harmony roughly 60 times per game, while 11 other men make it their job to disrupt that harmony. Pro football is not pro basketball in that a team can clear out one side of the court when things break down and the offense can still score. Pro football is also not pro baseball in that one player can defeat a pitcher and eight fielders by timing his swing just right. Even as great as Barry Sanders was, he never beat a defense all by himself.

In football, every player needs some help to accomplish their goal. That is part of what makes football so great and part of what makes it so highly unpredictable. The violence of the game - even by the tamer standards now - adds another element to the equation that is difficult to quantify.

Regardless, it does not mean we should not try. Over the last month, I have evaluated the weekly matchups for 500-plus players. Analyzing matchups alone requires me to make more than 8,000 "decisions". Each year, my goal is to give those who put their faith in my evaluations the confidence that they have the best draft-day tool at their disposal. Even if my matchup-grading process is only 70 percent accurate, that is still a significant advantage over any analyst who does not consider it at all. It is not as if it serves as much more than a tiebreaker for me.

Fantasy football is a stock market game, and the job of an analyst is to identify when stocks are poised to skyrocket or ready to tank. While last year's results help fantasy managers/analysts set the table for the following season, they are merely a starting point. Fantasy rankings and drafting need to be predictive, not reactive. I have taken this approach for almost 20 years. While some of my processes have changed in that time, the main goal has not.

The Success Score Index (SSI) below is powered in large part by my target and carry predictions. As always, the matchup grades are included in the formula. SSI allows me to compare apples to oranges across positions. Perhaps just as importantly, I have been able to eliminate most of the guesswork across different scoring systems (PPR, standard, etc.).

For all of those unfamiliar with my Big Boards, allow me to explain the color-coding system before we start:

Red – For lower-level players, a red matchup is the most difficult one a player can face. For a second- or third-tier player, drop your expectations for them at least one grade that week (i.e., from WR2 to WR3). For elite players, expect them to perform at least slightly worse that week.

Yellow – For lower-level players, he is a borderline start at best. For a second- or third-tier player, the slight edge goes to the defense in what is essentially a toss-up. For the elite players, expect slightly better than average production.

White – This one can go either way, but I favor the player over the matchup. Generally speaking, these matchups are winnable for all levels of players.

Green – For non-elite players, the stage is set for a player to have a productive day. For the elite player, this matchup could produce special numbers.

Note: Players with a next to their name have some degree of injury/character/holdout concern. In addition, I have added distinct tiers for this round of Big Boards (represented by the different colors in the "Pos" column).

Over the next two weeks, I will release my first Big Boards for non-PPR and superflex leagues as well as the FFPC Big Boards. In the second and final round of Big Boards near the end of the preseason, I will rank at least 225 players and present my final rankings for kickers and defense/special teams.

Here is the scoring system that I used to rank the players in the Half-Point PPR format:

 Half-PPR Big Board - Top 200
Rk Pos Player Tm SSI 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
1 RB1 Bijan Robinson ATL 8.8
2 WR1 Ja'Marr Chase CIN 7.5
3 RB2 Jahmyr Gibbs DET 7.0
4 WR2 CeeDee Lamb DAL 6.6
5 RB3 Christian McCaffrey SF 6.5
6 RB4 Derrick Henry BAL 5.4
7 RB5 Saquon Barkley PHI 5.3
8 WR3 Justin Jefferson MIN 4.5
9 RB6 Jonathan Taylor IND 3.6
10 RB7 Ashton Jeanty LV 3.4
11 RB8 De'Von Achane MIA 3.4
12 RB9 Bucky Irving TB 3.1
13 QB1 Lamar Jackson BAL 2.9
14 WR4 Malik Nabers NYG 2.8
15 WR5 Amon-Ra St. Brown DET 2.7
16 RB10 Omarion Hampton LAC 2.6
17 RB11 Chase Brown CIN 2.6
18 RB12 Josh Jacobs GB 2.5
19 WR6 Drake London ATL 2.5
20 WR7 Brian Thomas Jr. JAC 1.9
21 TE1 Brock Bowers LV 1.8
22 QB2 Jayden Daniels WAS 1.8
23 QB3 Josh Allen BUF 1.8
24 WR8 A.J. Brown PHI 1.7
25 WR9 Puka Nacua LAR 1.7
26 WR10 Nico Collins HOU 1.6
27 TE2 Trey McBride ARI 1.6
28 WR11 Ladd McConkey LAC 1.5
29 RB13 Kyren Williams LAR 1.5
30 RB14 Kenneth Walker SEA 1.4
31 QB4 Jalen Hurts PHI 1.3
32 RB15 Breece Hall NYJ 1.2
33 RB16 Chuba Hubbard CAR 1.2
34 WR12 Davante Adams LAR 1.0
35 WR13 Garrett Wilson NYJ 0.9
36 WR14 Jaxon Smith-Njigba SEA 0.6
37 WR15 Tee Higgins CIN 0.6
38 TE3 George Kittle SF 0.6
39 RB17 James Cook BUF 0.4
40 WR16 Terry McLaurin WAS 0.3
41 WR17 Tetairoa McMillan CAR 0.3
42 WR18 DeVonta Smith PHI 0.2
43 WR19 Marvin Harrison Jr. ARI 0.2
44 WR20 Calvin Ridley TEN 0.1
45 RB18 Alvin Kamara NO 0.0
46 WR21 Mike Evans TB 0.0
47 QB5 Joe Burrow CIN -0.1
48 WR22 Tyreek Hill MIA -0.2
49 RB19 TreVeyon Henderson NE -0.2
50 WR23 George Pickens DAL -0.3
51 WR24 Jaylen Waddle MIA -0.3
52 RB20 RJ Harvey DEN -0.3
53 WR25 Courtland Sutton DEN -0.3
54 WR26 Jameson Williams DET -0.4
55 WR27 Rome Odunze CHI -0.4
56 WR28 D.J. Moore CHI -0.4
57 WR29 DK Metcalf PIT -0.5
58 RB21 James Conner ARI -0.5
59 RB22 David Montgomery DET -0.6
60 RB23 Kaleb Johnson PIT -0.7
61 RB24 Tony Pollard TEN -1.1
62 WR30 Xavier Worthy KC -1.2
63 WR31 Chris Olave NO -1.3
64 QB6 Patrick Mahomes KC -1.3
65 TE4 Mark Andrews BAL -1.3
66 WR32 Travis Hunter JAC -1.3
67 TE5 Evan Engram DEN -1.4
68 WR33 Stefon Diggs NE -1.5
69 RB25 Aaron Jones MIN -1.5
70 TE6 T.J. Hockenson MIN -1.5
71 TE7 Sam LaPorta DET -1.5
72 TE8 Tucker Kraft GB -1.6
73 WR34 Zay Flowers BAL -1.6
74 RB26 J.K. Dobbins DEN -1.6
75 TE9 Travis Kelce KC -1.8
76 WR35 Rashee Rice KC -1.9
77 RB27 Isiah Pacheco KC -1.9
78 WR36 Emeka Egbuka TB -1.9
79 RB28 D'Andre Swift CHI -1.9
80 RB29 Jordan Mason MIN -2.0
81 TE10 David Njoku CLE -2.0
82 WR37 Khalil Shakir BUF -2.0
83 TE11 Jake Ferguson DAL -2.0
84 WR38 Jauan Jennings SF -2.2
85 WR39 Jakobi Meyers LV -2.2
86 QB7 Baker Mayfield TB -2.3
87 RB30 Jaylen Warren PIT -2.3
88 RB31 Rhamondre Stevenson NE -2.4
89 WR40 Josh Downs IND -2.6
90 WR41 Jayden Reed GB -2.7
91 WR42 Darnell Mooney ATL -2.7
92 QB8 Kyler Murray ARI -2.7
93 WR43 Ricky Pearsall SF -2.8
94 QB9 Caleb Williams CHI -2.8
95 WR44 Deebo Samuel WAS -2.9
96 RB32 Trey Benson ARI -2.9
97 WR45 Michael Pittman Jr. IND -3.0
98 QB10 Brock Purdy SF -3.1
99 TE12 Colston Loveland CHI -3.1
100 TE13 Tyler Warren IND -3.2
101 QB11 Dak Prescott DAL -3.2
102 TE14 Hunter Henry NE -3.3
103 RB33 Tyjae Spears TEN -3.3
104 QB12 Bo Nix DEN -3.3
105 WR46 Jerry Jeudy CLE -3.3
106 RB34 Cam Skattebo NYG -3.4
107 QB13 J.J. McCarthy MIN -3.4
108 RB35 Brian Robinson Jr. WAS -3.4
109 QB14 Justin Fields NYJ -3.4
110 WR47 Jayden Higgins HOU -3.5
111 WR48 Rashod Bateman BAL -3.5
112 RB36 Zach Charbonnet SEA -3.5
113 WR49 Chris Godwin TB -3.5
114 TE15 Kyle Pitts ATL -3.6
115 RB37 Jaylen Wright MIA -3.6
116 TE16 Zach Ertz WAS -3.7
117 RB38 Tyrone Tracy Jr. NYG -3.7
118 RB39 Quinshon Judkins CLE -3.8
119 RB40 Isaac Guerendo SF -3.8
120 WR50 Jordan Addison MIN -3.9
121 TE17 Pat Freiermuth PIT -3.9
122 QB15 Jordan Love GB -3.9
123 QB16 Drake Maye NE -3.9
124 TE18 Dalton Kincaid BUF -3.9
125 WR51 Cedric Tillman CLE -4.0
126 WR52 Marvin Mims DEN -4.0
127 WR53 Demario Douglas NE -4.0
128 TE19 Elijah Arroyo SEA -4.0
129 TE20 Brenton Strange JAC -4.1
130 QB17 Trevor Lawrence JAC -4.1
131 QB18 C.J. Stroud HOU -4.1
132 QB19 Justin Herbert LAC -4.1
133 WR54 Rashid Shaheed NO -4.1
134 WR55 Marquise Brown KC -4.2
135 RB41 Kyle Monangai CHI -4.2
136 RB42 Braelon Allen NYJ -4.2
137 TE21 Isaiah Likely BAL -4.2
138 RB43 Bhayshul Tuten JAC -4.2
139 RB44 Javonte Williams DAL -4.2
140 TE22 Chigoziem Okonkwo TEN -4.3
141 TE23 Theo Johnson NYG -4.5
142 QB20 Jared Goff DET -4.6
143 WR56 Tre Harris LAC -4.6
144 WR57 Christian Kirk HOU -4.7
145 TE24 Juwan Johnson NO -4.7
146 WR58 Matthew Golden GB -4.7
147 QB21 Bryce Young CAR -4.7
148 TE25 Dallas Goedert PHI -4.8
149 RB45 Nick Chubb HOU -4.9
150 TE26 Mason Taylor NYJ -4.9
151 QB22 Tua Tagovailoa MIA -5.1
152 WR59 Darius Slayton NYG -5.2
153 RB46 Najee Harris LAC -5.3
154 RB47 Jaydon Blue DAL -5.3
155 WR60 Wan'Dale Robinson NYG -5.3
156 WR61 Romeo Doubs GB -5.3
157 WR62 Dyami Brown JAC -5.3
158 WR63 Andrei Iosivas CIN -5.4
159 RB48 Austin Ekeler WAS -5.5
160 WR64 Dontayvion Wicks GB -5.5
161 WR65 Xavier Legette CAR -5.6
162 RB49 Rachaad White TB -5.7
163 RB50 Jacory Croskey-Merritt WAS -5.7
164 RB51 Travis Etienne JAC -5.7
165 WR66 Keon Coleman BUF -5.7
166 WR67 Tyler Lockett TEN -5.8
167 RB52 Jarquez Hunter LAR -5.9
168 RB53 Tank Bigsby JAC -5.9
169 RB54 Brashard Smith KC -5.9
170 RB55 DJ Giddens IND -6.0
171 QB23 Matthew Stafford LAR -6.0
172 RB56 Dylan Sampson CLE -6.1
173 RB57 MarShawn Lloyd GB -6.1
174 RB58 Woody Marks HOU -6.2
175 QB24 Cam Ward TEN -6.2
176 RB59 Ray Davis BUF -6.2
177 WR68 Luther Burden III CHI -6.2
178 WR69 Elic Ayomanor TEN -6.2
179 WR70 Josh Palmer BUF -6.3
180 WR71 Cooper Kupp SEA -6.3
181 QB25 Geno Smith LV -6.4
182 WR72 Jalen McMillan TB -6.4
183 WR73 Kayshon Boutte NE -6.4
184 RB60 Justice Hill BAL -6.5
185 QB26 Michael Penix Jr. ATL -6.6
186 WR74 Adam Thielen CAR -6.7
187 RB61 Joe Mixon HOU -6.8
188 RB62 Tyler Allgeier ATL -6.8
189 WR75 Michael Wilson ARI -6.8
190 WR76 Alec Pierce IND -6.9
191 RB63 Sean Tucker TB -7.0
192 WR77 Devaughn Vele DEN -7.1
193 RB64 Blake Corum LAR -7.3
194 WR78 KaVontae Turpin DAL -7.3
195 RB65 Raheem Mostert LV -7.6
196 RB66 Devin Neal NO -7.6
197 RB67 Rico Dowdle CAR -7.8
198 WR79 Quentin Johnston LAC -7.8
199 WR80 Jack Bech LV -8.0
200 RB68 Jerome Ford CLE -8.2


PPR | Half-PPR


Doug Orth has served as an analyst for FF Today since 2006 and joined the Fantasy Points team before the start of the 2024 season. He is also a highly successful high-stakes player who has not experienced a losing money season in any of his 25 years in this hobby. Please check him out on "The Football Diehards" podcast - courtesy of Full Time Fantasy - on Wednesday nights with co-host JJ Wenner.