In football, every player needs some help to accomplish their goal. That is part of what makes football so great and part of what makes it so highly unpredictable. The violence of the game - even by the tamer standards now - adds another element to the equation that is difficult to quantify.

Regardless, it does not mean we should not try. Over the last month, I have evaluated the weekly matchups for 500-plus players. Analyzing matchups alone requires me to make more than 8,000 "decisions". Each year, my goal is to give those who put their faith in my evaluations the confidence that they have the best draft-day tool at their disposal. Even if my matchup-grading process is only 70 percent accurate, that is still a significant advantage over any analyst who does not consider it at all. It is not as if it serves as much more than a tiebreaker for me.

Fantasy football is a stock market game, and the job of an analyst is to identify when stocks are poised to skyrocket or ready to tank. While last year's results help fantasy managers/analysts set the table for the following season, they are merely a starting point. Fantasy rankings and drafting need to be predictive, not reactive. I have taken this approach for almost 20 years. While some of my processes have changed in that time, the main goal has not.

The Success Score Index (SSI) below is powered in large part by my target and carry predictions. As always, the matchup grades are included in the formula. SSI allows me to compare apples to oranges across positions. Perhaps just as importantly, I have been able to eliminate most of the guesswork across different scoring systems (PPR, standard, etc.).

For all of those unfamiliar with my Big Boards, allow me to explain the color-coding system before we start:

Red - For lower-level players, a red matchup is the most difficult one a player can face. For a second- or third-tier player, drop your expectations for them at least one grade that week (i.e., from WR2 to WR3). For elite players, expect them to perform at least slightly worse that week.

Yellow - For lower-level players, he is a borderline start at best. For a second- or third-tier player, the slight edge goes to the defense in what is essentially a toss-up. For the elite players, expect slightly better than average production.

White - This one can go either way, but I favor the player over the matchup. Generally speaking, these matchups are winnable for all levels of players.

Green - For non-elite players, the stage is set for a player to have a productive day. For the elite player, this matchup could produce special numbers.

Note: Players with a next to their name have some degree of injury/character/holdout concern. In addition, I have added distinct tiers for this round of Big Boards (represented by the different colors in the "Pos" column).

Over the next two weeks, I will release my second and final Big Boards for PPR, Half-PPR, superflex and standard leagues as well as the FFPC Big Boards. I will present my final rankings for kickers and defense/special teams in the coming days as well.

Here is the scoring system that I used to rank the players in the FFPC format:

FFPC Big Board - Top 200 Rk Pos Player Tm SSI 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 1 WR1 Ja'Marr Chase CIN 11.3 2 RB1 Bijan Robinson ATL 11.1 3 WR2 CeeDee Lamb DAL 10.1 4 RB2 Jahmyr Gibbs DET 9.2 5 RB3 Christian McCaffrey SF 9.1 6 WR3 Justin Jefferson MIN 7.6 7 TE1 Trey McBride ARI 7.4 8 TE2 Brock Bowers LV 7.2 9 RB4 Saquon Barkley PHI 6.7 10 RB5 Derrick Henry BAL 6.5 11 WR4 Malik Nabers NYG 6.0 12 RB6 De'Von Achane MIA 6.0 13 WR5 Amon-Ra St. Brown DET 5.8 14 RB7 Ashton Jeanty LV 5.5 15 RB8 Bucky Irving TB 5.4 16 WR6 Drake London ATL 5.3 17 WR7 Brian Thomas Jr. JAC 5.1 18 RB9 Chase Brown CIN 5.1 19 WR8 Puka Nacua LAR 5.1 20 WR9 A.J. Brown PHI 4.9 21 RB10 Jonathan Taylor IND 4.7 22 WR10 Nico Collins HOU 4.6 23 WR11 Ladd McConkey LAC 4.5 24 TE3 George Kittle SF 4.2 25 QB1 Lamar Jackson BAL 4.1 26 RB11 Josh Jacobs GB 4.0 27 WR12 Davante Adams LAR 3.8 28 WR13 Garrett Wilson NYJ 3.7 29 WR14 Jaxon Smith-Njigba SEA 3.6 30 RB12 Kyren Williams LAR 3.4 31 RB13 Kenneth Walker SEA 3.2 32 QB2 Jayden Daniels WAS 3.2 33 WR15 Tetairoa McMillan CAR 3.2 34 WR16 Tee Higgins CIN 3.2 35 QB3 Josh Allen BUF 3.1 36 WR17 Tyreek Hill MIA 3.0 37 RB14 Omarion Hampton LAC 3.0 38 WR18 Terry McLaurin WAS 3.0 39 WR19 DeVonta Smith PHI 2.9 40 WR20 Calvin Ridley TEN 2.9 41 WR21 Marvin Harrison Jr. ARI 2.7 42 RB15 Breece Hall NYJ 2.7 43 QB4 Jalen Hurts PHI 2.7 44 WR22 Jameson Williams DET 2.7 45 RB16 Chuba Hubbard CAR 2.7 46 WR23 Mike Evans TB 2.6 47 TE4 Evan Engram DEN 2.6 48 TE5 Travis Kelce KC 2.5 49 WR24 Jaylen Waddle MIA 2.4 50 RB17 Alvin Kamara NO 2.4 51 WR25 George Pickens DAL 2.3 52 TE6 T.J. Hockenson MIN 2.1 53 WR26 Courtland Sutton DEN 2.1 54 WR27 DK Metcalf PIT 2.0 55 WR28 D.J. Moore CHI 2.0 56 RB18 James Cook BUF 2.0 57 TE7 David Njoku CLE 2.0 58 WR29 Rome Odunze CHI 1.9 59 TE8 Jake Ferguson DAL 1.9 60 TE9 Tucker Kraft GB 1.8 61 WR30 Stefon Diggs NE 1.8 62 TE10 Mark Andrews BAL 1.8 63 RB19 RJ Harvey DEN 1.8 64 TE11 Sam LaPorta DET 1.7 65 RB20 TreVeyon Henderson NE 1.6 66 QB5 Joe Burrow CIN 1.4 67 WR31 Chris Olave NO 1.2 68 WR32 Travis Hunter JAC 1.1 69 WR33 Zay Flowers BAL 1.0 70 WR34 Xavier Worthy KC 1.0 71 WR35 Rashee Rice KC 0.9 72 RB21 David Montgomery DET 0.8 73 WR36 Khalil Shakir BUF 0.8 74 RB22 James Conner ARI 0.7 75 RB23 Aaron Jones MIN 0.6 76 RB24 Tony Pollard TEN 0.6 77 RB25 D'Andre Swift CHI 0.5 78 WR37 Jakobi Meyers LV 0.4 79 TE12 Colston Loveland CHI 0.3 80 RB26 Kaleb Johnson PIT 0.2 81 QB6 Patrick Mahomes KC 0.2 82 WR38 Emeka Egbuka TB 0.2 83 RB27 Jaylen Warren PIT 0.2 84 WR39 Josh Downs IND 0.0 85 WR40 Jauan Jennings SF -0.1 86 TE13 Hunter Henry NE -0.1 87 WR41 Michael Pittman Jr. IND -0.1 88 TE14 Tyler Warren IND -0.2 89 RB28 Isiah Pacheco KC -0.2 90 TE15 Zach Ertz WAS -0.4 91 WR42 Jayden Reed GB -0.5 92 RB29 J.K. Dobbins DEN -0.5 93 TE16 Dalton Kincaid BUF -0.6 94 WR43 Jerry Jeudy CLE -0.7 95 WR44 Deebo Samuel WAS -0.7 96 TE17 Pat Freiermuth PIT -0.9 97 RB30 Jordan Mason MIN -0.9 98 TE18 Kyle Pitts ATL -0.9 99 QB7 Baker Mayfield TB -1.0 100 RB31 Tyjae Spears TEN -1.0 101 WR45 Ricky Pearsall SF -1.1 102 WR46 Darnell Mooney ATL -1.1 103 TE19 Brenton Strange JAC -1.1 104 QB8 Caleb Williams CHI -1.2 105 TE20 Dallas Goedert PHI -1.2 106 QB9 Kyler Murray ARI -1.2 107 WR47 Chris Godwin TB -1.3 108 TE21 Elijah Arroyo SEA -1.3 109 TE22 Chigoziem Okonkwo TEN -1.3 110 WR48 Rashod Bateman BAL -1.4 111 RB32 Rhamondre Stevenson NE -1.4 112 WR49 Jayden Higgins HOU -1.5 113 RB33 Tyrone Tracy Jr. NYG -1.5 114 TE23 Theo Johnson NYG -1.5 115 QB10 Dak Prescott DAL -1.6 116 QB11 Bo Nix DEN -1.7 117 WR50 Cedric Tillman CLE -1.7 118 WR51 Jordan Addison MIN -1.8 119 RB34 Zach Charbonnet SEA -1.8 120 QB12 Justin Fields NYJ -1.8 121 QB13 Brock Purdy SF -1.8 122 WR52 Demario Douglas NE -1.8 123 QB14 J.J. McCarthy MIN -2.0 124 RB35 Cam Skattebo NYG -2.0 125 TE24 Juwan Johnson NO -2.0 126 RB36 Brian Robinson Jr. WAS -2.1 127 RB37 Trey Benson ARI -2.1 128 WR53 Rashid Shaheed NO -2.1 129 RB38 Jaylen Wright MIA -2.2 130 QB15 Drake Maye NE -2.2 131 WR54 Marquise Brown KC -2.3 132 TE25 Mason Taylor NYJ -2.3 133 QB16 Jordan Love GB -2.4 134 TE26 Darren Waller MIA -2.4 135 TE27 Isaiah Likely BAL -2.4 136 QB17 Justin Herbert LAC -2.5 137 WR55 Christian Kirk HOU -2.5 138 QB18 Trevor Lawrence JAC -2.5 139 RB39 Javonte Williams DAL -2.5 140 RB40 Quinshon Judkins CLE -2.5 141 QB19 C.J. Stroud HOU -2.5 142 WR56 Marvin Mims DEN -2.5 143 RB41 Bhayshul Tuten JAC -2.6 144 WR57 Matthew Golden GB -2.6 145 WR58 Wan'Dale Robinson NYG -2.8 146 QB20 Jared Goff DET -3.0 147 RB42 Isaac Guerendo SF -3.0 148 TE28 Ja'Tavion Sanders CAR -3.0 149 WR59 Tre Harris LAC -3.0 150 RB43 Braelon Allen NYJ -3.2 151 QB21 Bryce Young CAR -3.2 152 RB44 Jaydon Blue DAL -3.2 153 WR60 Darius Slayton NYG -3.2 154 QB22 Tua Tagovailoa MIA -3.3 155 RB45 Austin Ekeler WAS -3.3 156 RB46 Kyle Monangai CHI -3.3 157 WR61 Andrei Iosivas CIN -3.4 158 WR62 Romeo Doubs GB -3.5 159 TE29 Tyler Conklin LAC -3.6 160 WR63 Tyler Lockett TEN -3.6 161 RB47 Travis Etienne JAC -3.7 162 TE30 Mike Gesicki CIN -3.7 163 WR64 Dontayvion Wicks GB -3.7 164 WR65 Keon Coleman BUF -3.7 165 WR66 Dyami Brown JAC -3.8 166 RB48 Najee Harris LAC -3.8 167 RB49 Nick Chubb HOU -4.0 168 WR67 Keenan Allen LAC -4.1 169 RB50 MarShawn Lloyd GB -4.1 170 RB51 Brashard Smith KC -4.2 171 RB52 Rachaad White TB -4.2 172 WR68 Xavier Legette CAR -4.2 173 WR69 Luther Burden III CHI -4.2 174 TE31 Jonnu Smith PIT -4.2 175 RB53 DJ Giddens IND -4.2 176 QB23 Cam Ward TEN -4.3 177 WR70 Josh Palmer BUF -4.3 178 WR71 Adam Thielen CAR -4.3 179 WR72 Elic Ayomanor TEN -4.3 180 WR73 Cooper Kupp SEA -4.3 181 RB54 Woody Marks HOU -4.4 182 QB24 Geno Smith LV -4.4 183 RB55 Dylan Sampson CLE -4.5 184 RB56 Jacory Croskey-Merritt WAS -4.6 185 QB25 Matthew Stafford LAR -4.6 186 TE32 Dalton Schultz HOU -4.8 187 TE33 Terrance Ferguson LAR -4.8 188 WR74 Kayshon Boutte NE -4.8 189 RB57 Tank Bigsby JAC -4.8 190 RB58 Justice Hill BAL -4.9 191 TE34 Cade Otton TB -4.9 192 WR75 Brandon Aiyuk SF -5.1 193 QB26 Michael Penix Jr. ATL -5.1 194 RB59 Joe Mixon HOU -5.2 195 RB60 Ray Davis BUF -5.4 196 RB61 Blake Corum LAR -5.7 197 RB62 Tyler Allgeier ATL -6.1 198 RB63 Sean Tucker TB -6.1 199 TE35 AJ Barner SEA -6.4 200 TE36 Cole Kmet CHI -6.6

PPR | Half-PPR | Non-PPR | Superflex | FFPC