As I do every year, allow me to reluctantly engage in a bit of
a humble brag before we get into the heart of what I believe is
the best draft-day tool around. (Yes, I am biased.) I have been
playing in money leagues for nearly 25 years and in high-stakes
leagues ($1,000-plus entry) for about 15 years. I have played
in those high-stakes leagues during the leanest of times, and
I did so in part because I knew I had an advantage over my competition.
Does it always result in a championship? Of course not. (The odds
of winning a 12-team league are 8.3 percent.) However, I have
historically won roughly one of every five high-stakes leagues
I have entered. I also have never had a season in which I lost
money. Does that mean it cannot happen? Of course not. With that
said, I will stack my success (and the success of many of my readers)
against anyone else in the industry.
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Football is simple at its very core, but it is a very complex
game to evaluate and analyze because 11 men try to work in harmony
roughly 60 times per game, while 11 other men make it their job
to disrupt that harmony. Pro football is not pro basketball in
that a team can clear out one side of the court when things break
down and the offense can still score. Pro football is also not
pro baseball in that one player can defeat a pitcher and eight
fielders by timing his swing just right. Even as great as Barry
Sanders was, he never beat a defense all by himself.
In football, every player needs some help to accomplish their
goal. That is part of what makes football so great and part of
what makes it so highly unpredictable. The violence of the game
- even by the tamer standards now - adds another element to the
equation that is difficult to quantify.
Regardless, it does not mean we should not try. Over the last
month, I have evaluated the weekly matchups for 500-plus players.
Analyzing matchups alone requires me to make more than 8,000 "decisions".
Each year, my goal is to give those who put their faith in my
evaluations the confidence that they have the best draft-day tool
at their disposal. Even if my matchup-grading process is only
70 percent accurate, that is still a significant advantage over
any analyst who does not consider it at all. It is not as if it
serves as much more than a tiebreaker for me.
Fantasy football is a stock market game, and the job of an analyst
is to identify when stocks are poised to skyrocket or ready to
tank. While last year's results help fantasy managers/analysts
set the table for the following season, they are merely a starting
point. Fantasy rankings and drafting need to be predictive, not
reactive. I have taken this approach for almost 20 years. While
some of my processes have changed in that time, the main goal
has not.
The Success Score Index (SSI) below is powered
in large part by my target and carry predictions. As always, the
matchup grades are included in the formula. SSI allows me to compare
apples to oranges across positions. Perhaps just as importantly,
I have been able to eliminate most of the guesswork across different
scoring systems (PPR, standard, etc.).
For all of those unfamiliar with my Big Boards, allow me to explain
the color-coding system before we start:
Red – For lower-level players, a red matchup
is the most difficult one a player can face. For a second- or
third-tier player, drop your expectations for them at
least one grade that week (i.e., from WR2 to WR3). For
elite players, expect them to perform at least
slightly worse that week.
Yellow – For lower-level players, he is a borderline
start at best. For a second- or third-tier player, the slight
edge goes to the defense in what is essentially a toss-up. For
the elite players, expect slightly better than average production.
White – This one can go either way, but I favor
the player over the matchup. Generally speaking, these matchups
are winnable for all levels of players.
Green – For non-elite players, the stage is
set for a player to have a productive day. For the elite player,
this matchup could produce special numbers.
Note: Players with a
next to their name have some degree of injury/character/holdout
concern. In addition, I have added distinct tiers for this round
of Big Boards (represented by the different colors in the "Pos"
column).
Over the next two weeks, I will release my second and final
Big Boards for superflex and non-PPR leagues as well as the FFPC
Big Boards. I will present my final rankings for kickers and defense/special
teams in the coming days.
Here is the scoring
system that I used to rank the players in the Half-Point PPR
format:
Doug Orth has served as an analyst for FF Today since 2006 and
joined the Fantasy Points team before the start of the 2024 season.
He is also a highly successful high-stakes player who has not experienced
a losing money season in any of his 25 years in this hobby. Please
check him out on "The Football Diehards" podcast - courtesy
of Full Time Fantasy - on Wednesday nights with co-host JJ Wenner.
next to their name have some degree of injury/character/holdout
concern. In addition, I have added distinct tiers for this round
of Big Boards (represented by the different colors in the "Pos"
column).
