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Football is simple at its very core, but it is a very complex game to evaluate and analyze because 11 men try to work in harmony roughly 60 times per game, while 11 other men make it their job to disrupt that harmony. Pro football is not pro basketball in that a team can clear out one side of the court when things break down and the offense can still score. Pro football is also not pro baseball in that one player can defeat a pitcher and eight fielders by timing his swing just right. Even as great as Barry Sanders was, he never beat a defense all by himself.

In football, every player needs some help to accomplish their goal. That is part of what makes football so great and part of what makes it so highly unpredictable. The violence of the game - even by the tamer standards now - adds another element to the equation that is difficult to quantify.

Regardless, it does not mean we should not try. Over the last month, I have evaluated the weekly matchups for 500-plus players. Analyzing matchups alone requires me to make more than 8,000 "decisions". Each year, my goal is to give those who put their faith in my evaluations the confidence that they have the best draft-day tool at their disposal. Even if my matchup-grading process is only 70 percent accurate, that is still a significant advantage over any analyst who does not consider it at all. It is not as if it serves as much more than a tiebreaker for me.

Fantasy football is a stock market game, and the job of an analyst is to identify when stocks are poised to skyrocket or ready to tank. While last year's results help fantasy managers/analysts set the table for the following season, they are merely a starting point. Fantasy rankings and drafting need to be predictive, not reactive. I have taken this approach for almost 20 years. While some of my processes have changed in that time, the main goal has not.

The Success Score Index (SSI) below is powered in large part by my target and carry predictions. As always, the matchup grades are included in the formula. SSI allows me to compare apples to oranges across positions. Perhaps just as importantly, I have been able to eliminate most of the guesswork across different scoring systems (PPR, standard, etc.).

For all of those unfamiliar with my Big Boards, allow me to explain the color-coding system before we start:

Red - For lower-level players, a red matchup is the most difficult one a player can face. For a second- or third-tier player, drop your expectations for them at least one grade that week (i.e. from WR2 to WR3). For elite players, expect them to perform at least slightly worse that week.

Yellow - For lower-level players, he is a borderline start at best. For a second- or third-tier player, the slight edge goes to the defense in what is essentially a toss-up. For the elite players, expect slightly better than average production.

White - This one can go either way, but I favor the player over the matchup. Generally speaking, these matchups are winnable for all levels of players.

Green - For non-elite players, the stage is set for a player to have a productive day. For the elite player, this matchup could produce special numbers.

Note: Players with a next to their name have some degree of injury/character/holdout concern. As I have in recent years, I have distinct tiers (represented by the different colors in the "Pos" column) to better illustrate where my tier breaks are.

Over the next two weeks, I will release my second and final Big Boards for 0.5 PPR, superflex and non-PPR leagues as well as the FFPC Big Boards. I will present my final rankings for kickers and defense/special teams in the coming days.

Here is the scoring system that I used to rank the players in the PPR format:

PPR Big Board - Top 225 Rk Pos Player Tm SSI 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 1 WR1 Ja'Marr Chase CIN 11.1 2 RB1 Bijan Robinson ATL 11.1 3 WR2 CeeDee Lamb DAL 10.2 4 RB2 Jahmyr Gibbs DET 9.2 5 RB3 Christian McCaffrey SF 9.1 6 WR3 Justin Jefferson MIN 7.6 7 RB4 Saquon Barkley PHI 6.7 8 RB5 Derrick Henry BAL 6.5 9 WR4 Malik Nabers NYG 6.0 10 WR5 Drake London ATL 6.0 11 RB6 Ashton Jeanty LV 5.8 12 WR6 Amon-Ra St. Brown DET 5.8 13 WR7 Brian Thomas Jr. JAC 5.7 14 RB7 Bucky Irving TB 5.4 15 RB8 Jonathan Taylor IND 5.1 16 RB9 Chase Brown CIN 5.1 17 TE1 Trey McBride ARI 5.1 18 WR8 Puka Nacua LAR 5.0 19 RB10 De'Von Achane MIA 4.9 20 WR9 A.J. Brown PHI 4.9 21 WR10 Nico Collins HOU 4.8 22 TE2 Brock Bowers LV 4.7 23 RB11 Josh Jacobs GB 4.5 24 QB1 Lamar Jackson BAL 4.2 25 WR11 Ladd McConkey LAC 4.1 26 WR12 Davante Adams LAR 3.9 27 RB12 Kyren Williams LAR 3.7 28 WR13 Jaxon Smith-Njigba SEA 3.6 29 RB13 Omarion Hampton LAC 3.5 30 QB2 Jayden Daniels WAS 3.3 31 RB14 Kenneth Walker SEA 3.2 32 WR14 Tee Higgins CIN 3.2 33 QB3 Josh Allen BUF 3.1 34 WR15 Marvin Harrison Jr. ARI 3.1 35 TE3 George Kittle SF 3.0 36 WR16 Tetairoa McMillan CAR 3.0 37 WR17 Tyreek Hill MIA 3.0 38 WR18 DeVonta Smith PHI 2.9 39 WR19 Garrett Wilson NYJ 2.9 40 WR20 Calvin Ridley TEN 2.9 41 QB4 Jalen Hurts PHI 2.7 42 RB15 Breece Hall NYJ 2.7 43 RB16 Chuba Hubbard CAR 2.7 44 RB17 James Cook BUF 2.6 45 WR21 George Pickens DAL 2.5 46 RB18 Alvin Kamara NO 2.4 47 WR22 Courtland Sutton DEN 2.4 48 WR23 Jaylen Waddle MIA 2.3 49 WR24 Mike Evans TB 2.3 50 WR25 Jameson Williams DET 2.3 51 WR26 Terry McLaurin WAS 2.2 52 WR27 DK Metcalf PIT 2.2 53 WR28 D.J. Moore CHI 2.0 54 RB19 RJ Harvey DEN 1.9 55 WR29 Rome Odunze CHI 1.9 56 WR30 Travis Hunter JAC 1.9 57 QB5 Joe Burrow CIN 1.6 58 RB20 TreVeyon Henderson NE 1.5 59 WR31 Stefon Diggs NE 1.4 60 WR32 Rashee Rice KC 1.4 61 WR33 Chris Olave NO 1.2 62 TE4 Evan Engram DEN 1.1 63 RB21 James Conner ARI 1.1 64 TE5 Travis Kelce KC 1.1 65 WR34 Zay Flowers BAL 1.0 66 WR35 Xavier Worthy KC 1.0 67 TE6 Mark Andrews BAL 0.9 68 TE7 T.J. Hockenson MIN 0.9 69 RB22 David Montgomery DET 0.8 70 WR36 Khalil Shakir BUF 0.8 71 TE8 Jake Ferguson DAL 0.8 72 RB23 Tony Pollard TEN 0.7 73 WR37 Jakobi Meyers LV 0.7 74 TE9 Tucker Kraft GB 0.7 75 TE10 Sam LaPorta DET 0.7 76 RB24 Aaron Jones MIN 0.6 77 TE11 David Njoku CLE 0.6 78 RB25 D'Andre Swift CHI 0.5 79 WR38 Emeka Egbuka TB 0.5 80 RB26 Kaleb Johnson PIT 0.2 81 RB27 Jaylen Warren PIT 0.2 82 WR39 Jauan Jennings SF 0.0 83 WR40 Jerry Jeudy CLE 0.0 84 TE12 Tyler Warren IND -0.1 85 QB6 Patrick Mahomes KC -0.1 86 WR41 Josh Downs IND -0.2 87 WR42 Ricky Pearsall SF -0.2 88 RB28 Isiah Pacheco KC -0.2 89 WR43 Jayden Higgins HOU -0.3 90 WR44 Deebo Samuel WAS -0.4 91 WR45 Michael Pittman Jr. IND -0.4 92 RB29 J.K. Dobbins DEN -0.6 93 WR46 Jayden Reed GB -0.6 94 WR47 Rashod Bateman BAL -0.7 95 TE13 Colston Loveland CHI -0.7 96 TE14 Hunter Henry NE -0.8 97 QB7 Caleb Williams CHI -0.9 98 RB30 Jordan Mason MIN -0.9 99 TE15 Dallas Goedert PHI -1.0 100 QB8 Baker Mayfield TB -1.0 101 WR48 Chris Godwin TB -1.1 102 WR49 Matthew Golden GB -1.1 103 QB9 Kyler Murray ARI -1.1 104 TE16 Dalton Kincaid BUF -1.1 105 TE17 Zach Ertz WAS -1.2 106 RB31 Rhamondre Stevenson NE -1.3 107 WR50 Cedric Tillman CLE -1.3 108 WR51 Demario Douglas NE -1.4 109 RB32 Tyrone Tracy Jr. NYG -1.5 110 QB10 Dak Prescott DAL -1.5 111 TE18 Kyle Pitts ATL -1.5 112 QB11 Bo Nix DEN -1.6 113 RB33 Zach Charbonnet SEA -1.6 114 RB34 Trey Benson ARI -1.6 115 QB12 Brock Purdy SF -1.8 116 RB35 Jacory Croskey-Merritt WAS -1.8 117 WR52 Jordan Addison MIN -1.8 118 RB36 Jaylen Wright MIA -1.9 119 RB37 Tyjae Spears TEN -1.9 120 WR53 Brandon Aiyuk SF -1.9 121 TE19 Brenton Strange JAC -1.9 122 WR54 Christian Kirk HOU -1.9 123 TE20 Chigoziem Okonkwo TEN -1.9 124 QB13 Justin Fields NYJ -1.9 125 TE21 Elijah Arroyo SEA -2.0 126 QB14 J.J. McCarthy MIN -2.0 127 RB38 Cam Skattebo NYG -2.0 128 RB39 Braelon Allen NYJ -2.1 129 TE22 Pat Freiermuth PIT -2.1 130 WR55 Rashid Shaheed NO -2.1 131 QB15 Drake Maye NE -2.2 132 TE23 Theo Johnson NYG -2.2 133 QB16 Justin Herbert LAC -2.2 134 QB17 C.J. Stroud HOU -2.2 135 QB18 Jordan Love GB -2.2 136 QB19 Trevor Lawrence JAC -2.3 137 WR56 Keenan Allen LAC -2.3 138 WR57 Marquise Brown KC -2.3 139 WR58 Wan'Dale Robinson NYG -2.5 140 RB40 Bhayshul Tuten JAC -2.6 141 WR59 Adam Thielen CAR -2.7 142 TE24 Isaiah Likely BAL -2.7 143 TE25 Darren Waller MIA -2.9 144 RB41 Travis Etienne JAC -2.9 145 RB42 Jaydon Blue DAL -2.9 146 QB20 Jared Goff DET -3.0 147 RB43 Isaac Guerendo SF -3.0 148 QB21 Bryce Young CAR -3.0 149 TE26 Juwan Johnson NO -3.0 150 TE27 Mason Taylor NYJ -3.0 151 WR60 Darnell Mooney ATL -3.1 152 WR61 Marvin Mims DEN -3.1 153 RB44 Javonte Williams DAL -3.2 154 WR62 Darius Slayton NYG -3.2 155 WR63 Tre Harris LAC -3.2 156 QB22 Tua Tagovailoa MIA -3.3 157 RB45 Kyle Monangai CHI -3.3 158 WR64 Andrei Iosivas CIN -3.5 159 TE28 Ja'Tavion Sanders CAR -3.6 160 RB46 Najee Harris LAC -3.7 161 WR65 Keon Coleman BUF -3.7 162 WR66 Dyami Brown JAC -3.8 163 RB47 Austin Ekeler WAS -3.8 164 RB48 Dylan Sampson CLE -3.8 165 WR67 Tyler Lockett TEN -4.0 166 WR68 Xavier Legette CAR -4.0 167 WR69 Romeo Doubs GB -4.0 168 RB49 Nick Chubb HOU -4.0 169 RB50 Rachaad White TB -4.1 170 TE29 Mike Gesicki CIN -4.1 171 WR70 Cooper Kupp SEA -4.1 172 RB51 Woody Marks HOU -4.2 173 RB52 Brashard Smith KC -4.2 174 WR71 Elic Ayomanor TEN -4.2 175 TE30 Tyler Conklin LAC -4.2 176 RB53 MarShawn Lloyd GB -4.2 177 QB23 Cam Ward TEN -4.2 178 WR72 Dontayvion Wicks GB -4.2 179 WR73 Josh Palmer BUF -4.3 180 RB54 Quinshon Judkins CLE -4.5 181 WR74 Pat Bryant DEN -4.5 182 WR75 Luther Burden III CHI -4.5 183 TE31 Jonnu Smith PIT -4.5 184 QB24 Geno Smith LV -4.5 185 RB55 Brian Robinson Jr. WAS -4.5 186 QB25 Matthew Stafford LAR -4.6 187 RB56 Tank Bigsby JAC -4.8 188 RB57 Justice Hill BAL -4.9 189 TE32 Terrance Ferguson LAR -5.0 190 TE33 Cade Otton TB -5.0 191 QB26 Michael Penix Jr. ATL -5.0 192 WR76 Jalen McMillan TB -5.1 193 RB58 DJ Giddens IND -5.1 194 TE34 Dalton Schultz HOU -5.3 195 WR77 Michael Wilson ARI -5.4 196 TE35 Michael Mayer LV -5.4 197 RB59 Ray Davis BUF -5.4 198 WR78 Ray-Ray McCloud ATL -5.4 199 WR79 KaVontae Turpin DAL -5.6 200 RB60 Tyler Allgeier ATL -5.6 201 RB61 Blake Corum LAR -5.7 202 RB62 Sean Tucker TB -5.8 203 TE36 Tyler Higbee LAR -5.8 204 WR80 DeAndre Hopkins BAL -5.9 205 TE37 Cole Kmet CHI -5.9 206 WR81 Kayshon Boutte NE -5.9 207 RB63 Will Shipley PHI -5.9 208 RB64 Raheem Mostert LV -6.0 209 WR82 Jalen Coker CAR -6.0 210 RB65 Jarquez Hunter LAR -6.0 211 RB66 Jerome Ford CLE -6.1 212 WR83 Diontae Johnson CLE -6.1 213 TE38 Harold Fannin Jr. CLE -6.3 214 RB67 Joe Mixon HOU -6.4 215 TE39 AJ Barner SEA -6.5 216 WR84 Alec Pierce IND -6.5 217 RB68 Rico Dowdle CAR -6.7 218 WR85 Jaylin Noel HOU -6.8 219 WR86 Tory Horton SEA -6.8 220 WR87 Dont'e Thornton Jr. LV -6.8 221 WR88 Isaac TeSlaa DET -7.0 222 WR89 Kyle Williams NE -7.6 223 WR90 Adonai Mitchell IND -7.8 224 RB69 Tahj Brooks CIN -7.8 225 RB70 Ollie Gordon II MIA -7.9

PPR