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Top 225 Big Board FFPC High-Stakes League: V 2.0


Preseason Matchup Analysis

By Doug Orth | 8/26/23 |
PPR | Half-PPR | Non-PPR | Superflex | FFPC

As I do every year, allow me to reluctantly engage in a bit of a humble brag before we get into the heart of what I believe is the best draft-day tool around. (Yes, I am biased.) I have been playing in money leagues for more than 20 years and in high-stakes leagues ($1,000-plus entry) for about 15 years. I have played in those high-stakes leagues during the leanest of times, and I did so in part because I knew I had an advantage over my competition. Does it always result in a championship? Of course not. However, I win roughly one of every six leagues I enter and have never had a season in which I lost money. Does that mean it cannot happen? Of course not. With that said, I will stack my success (and the success of many of my readers) against anyone else in the industry.

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Football is simple at its very core but a very complex game to evaluate and analyze because 11 men try to work in harmony roughly 60 times per game, while 11 other men make it their job to disrupt that harmony. Pro football is not pro basketball in that a team can clear out one side of the court when things break down and the offense can still score. Pro football is also not pro baseball in that one player can defeat a pitcher and eight fielders by timing his swing just right. Even as great as Barry Sanders was, he never beat a defense all by himself. In football, every player needs some help to accomplish his goal. That is part of what makes football so great and part of what makes it so highly unpredictable. The violence of the game - even by the tamer standards now - adds another element to the equation that is difficult to quantify.

Regardless, it does not mean we should not try. Over the last month, I have evaluated the weekly matchups for 500-plus players. Analyzing matchups alone requires me to make more than 8,000 "decisions". Each year, my goal is to give those who put their faith in my evaluations the confidence they have the best draft-day tool at their disposal. Even if my grading process is only 70 percent accurate, that is still a significant advantage over any analyst who does not consider it at all.

Fantasy football is a stock market game, and the job of an analyst is to identify when stocks are poised to skyrocket or ready to tank. While last year's results help fantasy managers/analysts set the table for the following season, they are merely a starting point. Fantasy rankings and drafting need to be predictive, not reactive. I have taken this approach for more than 15 years. While some of the processes have changed in that time, the main goal has not.

The Success Score Index (SSI) below is powered in large part by my target and carry predictions. As always, the matchup grades are included in the algorithm. SSI allows me to compare apples to oranges across positions. Perhaps just as importantly, I have been able to eliminate most of the guesswork across different scoring systems (PPR, standard, etc.).

For all of those unfamiliar with my Big Boards, allow me to explain the color-coding system before we start:

Red For lower-level players, a red matchup is the most difficult one a player can face. For a second- or third-tier player, drop your expectations for them at least one grade that week (i.e. from WR2 to WR3). For elite players, expect them to perform one level lower than their usual status (i.e. RB1 performs like an RB2).

Yellow For lower-level players, he is a borderline start at best. For a second- or third-tier player, the slight edge goes to the defense in what is essentially a toss-up. For the elite players, expect slightly better than average production.

White This one can go either way, but I favor the player over the matchup. Generally speaking, these matchups are winnable for all levels of players.

Green For non-elite players, the stage is set for a player to have a productive day. For the elite player, this matchup could produce special numbers.

Note: Players with a next to their name have some degree of injury/character/holdout concern. Each tier break is represented by the different colors in the "FPos" column.

New this year is a "Vol" column, which reflects the volatility of my ranking. In short, it reflects the confidence I have in the player to move into the next tier or two - be it up or down.

Over the next two weeks, I will release my second and final round of Big Boards for Half-PPR and Superflex leagues. I will rank at least 225 players for each one and present my final rankings for kickers and defense/special teams as well.

Here is the scoring system that I used to rank the players in the FFPC format:

 FFPC Big Board - Top 225
Rk Pos Player Vol Tm SSI 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
1 WR1 Justin Jefferson MIN 10.3
2 WR2 Cooper Kupp LAR 10.0
3 TE1 Travis Kelce KC 9.8
4 WR3 Ja'Marr Chase CIN 9.8
5 RB1 Christian McCaffrey SF 9.8
6 WR4 Tyreek Hill MIA 9.3
7 RB2 Nick Chubb CLE 8.4
8 RB3 Austin Ekeler LAC 8.1
9 RB4 Bijan Robinson ATL 7.4
10 WR5 Davante Adams LV 7.2
11 WR6 CeeDee Lamb DAL 7.1
12 TE2 Mark Andrews BAL 7.0
13 RB5 Tony Pollard DAL 5.5
14 WR7 Stefon Diggs BUF 5.4
15 WR8 A. St. Brown DET 5.3
16 RB6 Saquon Barkley NYG 5.1
17 RB7 Derrick Henry TEN 5.0
18 WR9 Garrett Wilson NYJ 4.4
19 WR10 A.J. Brown PHI 4.4
20 WR11 Jaylen Waddle MIA 4.3
21 TE3 Darren Waller NYG 4.2
22 QB1 Jalen Hurts PHI 4.1
23 WR12 Tee Higgins CIN 3.9
24 RB8 Jahmyr Gibbs DET 3.8
25 WR13 Keenan Allen LAC 3.8
26 RB9 Aaron Jones GB 3.4
27 WR14 Chris Olave NO 3.3
28 WR15 Calvin Ridley JAC 3.3
29 RB10 Rhamondre Stevenson NE 3.2
30 RB11 Jonathan Taylor IND 3.1
31 QB2 Josh Allen BUF 2.7
32 WR16 DK Metcalf SEA 2.7
33 TE4 T.J. Hockenson MIN 2.7
34 TE5 Dallas Goedert PHI 2.5
35 WR17 DeVonta Smith PHI 2.4
36 WR18 Brandon Aiyuk SF 2.4
37 WR19 Tyler Lockett SEA 2.2
38 TE6 Kyle Pitts ATL 2.2
39 RB12 Breece Hall NYJ 2.0
40 WR20 Deebo Samuel SF 2.0
41 QB3 Patrick Mahomes KC 1.9
42 WR21 Elijah Moore CLE 1.9
43 WR22 D.J. Moore CHI 1.9
44 QB4 Lamar Jackson BAL 1.7
45 QB5 Justin Herbert LAC 1.6
46 QB6 Joe Burrow CIN 1.6
47 RB13 David Montgomery DET 1.6
48 RB14 Najee Harris PIT 1.5
49 TE7 Pat Freiermuth PIT 1.4
50 RB15 James Cook BUF 1.3
51 TE8 George Kittle SF 1.1
52 WR23 Terry McLaurin WAS 1.0
53 WR24 Christian Kirk JAC 1.0
54 WR25 Amari Cooper CLE 1.0
55 RB16 J.K. Dobbins BAL 0.9
56 RB17 Dameon Pierce HOU 0.9
57 RB18 Alvin Kamara NO 0.9
58 WR26 DeAndre Hopkins TEN 0.9
59 TE9 David Njoku CLE 0.9
60 RB19 Josh Jacobs LV 0.8
61 RB20 Miles Sanders CAR 0.6
62 WR27 Diontae Johnson PIT 0.3
63 WR28 Drake London ATL 0.3
64 RB21 Rachaad White TB 0.3
65 QB7 Justin Fields CHI 0.3
66 RB22 Joe Mixon CIN 0.2
67 RB23 Alexander Mattison MIN 0.2
68 WR29 Christian Watson GB 0.0
69 WR30 Jahan Dotson WAS -0.2
70 RB24 D'Andre Swift PHI -0.2
71 QB8 Trevor Lawrence JAC -0.3
72 WR31 Michael Pittman Jr. IND -0.3
73 TE10 Dalton Kincaid BUF -0.3
74 RB25 Javonte Williams DEN -0.4
75 WR32 Chris Godwin TB -0.4
76 QB9 Deshaun Watson CLE -0.5
77 WR33 Jerry Jeudy DEN -0.6
78 WR34 J. Smith-Njigba SEA -0.6
79 RB26 Travis Etienne JAC -0.7
80 WR35 Mike Williams LAC -0.7
81 WR36 Courtland Sutton DEN -0.7
82 RB27 Antonio Gibson WAS -0.8
83 WR37 Brandin Cooks DAL -0.8
84 WR38 George Pickens PIT -0.9
85 WR39 Mike Evans TB -0.9
86 TE11 Juwan Johnson NO -0.9
87 TE12 Gerald Everett LAC -0.9
88 WR40 Treylon Burks TEN -0.9
89 WR41 Jordan Addison MIN -0.9
90 QB10 Geno Smith SEA -1.0
91 RB28 Kenneth Walker SEA -1.2
92 WR42 Gabriel Davis BUF -1.2
93 TE13 Evan Engram JAC -1.2
94 WR43 Kadarius Toney KC -1.4
95 TE14 Jake Ferguson DAL -1.5
96 RB29 Samaje Perine DEN -1.8
97 WR44 Zay Flowers BAL -1.8
98 WR45 Michael Thomas NO -2.0
99 RB30 James Conner ARI -2.0
100 RB31 Brian Robinson Jr. WAS -2.0
101 QB11 Kirk Cousins MIN -2.0
102 RB32 Cam Akers LAR -2.1
103 RB33 Devon Achane MIA -2.1
104 QB12 Dak Prescott DAL -2.2
105 WR46 Marquise Brown ARI -2.2
106 QB13 Anthony Richardson IND -2.4
107 RB34 Raheem Mostert MIA -2.5
108 WR47 Quentin Johnston LAC -2.5
109 TE15 Tyler Higbee LAR -2.6
110 WR48 Jakobi Meyers LV -2.6
111 WR49 Romeo Doubs GB -2.7
112 QB14 Tua Tagovailoa MIA -2.7
113 QB15 Russell Wilson DEN -2.8
114 RB35 Tyjae Spears TEN -2.9
115 WR50 Tyler Boyd CIN -3.0
116 QB16 Daniel Jones NYG -3.0
117 WR51 Marvin Mims DEN -3.1
118 WR52 JuJu Smith-Schuster NE -3.1
119 TE16 Hunter Henry NE -3.2
120 TE17 Greg Dulcich DEN -3.2
121 WR53 Jonathan Mingo CAR -3.2
122 TE18 Chigoziem Okonkwo TEN -3.2
123 WR54 Darnell Mooney CHI -3.2
124 RB36 Dalvin Cook NYJ -3.2
125 WR55 Curtis Samuel WAS -3.4
126 WR56 Skyy Moore KC -3.5
127 TE19 Dalton Schultz HOU -3.5
128 RB37 Isiah Pacheco KC -3.6
129 RB38 AJ Dillon GB -3.6
130 WR57 Isaiah Hodgins NYG -3.6
131 TE20 Tyler Conklin NYJ -3.7
132 TE21 Luke Musgrave GB -3.8
133 RB39 Jeff Wilson MIA -3.8
134 TE22 Hayden Hurst CAR -3.8
135 TE23 Irv Smith CIN -3.9
136 WR58 Parris Campbell NYG -4.1
137 WR59 Hunter Renfrow LV -4.1
138 WR60 Adam Thielen CAR -4.2
139 RB40 Khalil Herbert CHI -4.2
140 QB17 Aaron Rodgers NYJ -4.2
141 TE24 Cole Kmet CHI -4.3
142 WR61 Michael Gallup DAL -4.4
143 WR62 Alec Pierce IND -4.4
144 WR63 Josh Downs IND -4.5
145 RB41 Zach Charbonnet SEA -4.6
146 RB42 Jerome Ford CLE -4.7
147 WR64 Nico Collins HOU -5.0
148 WR65 Odell Beckham Jr. BAL -5.1
149 RB43 C. Edwards-Helaire KC -5.1
150 RB44 Tank Bigsby JAC -5.2
151 RB45 Jaylen Warren PIT -5.2
152 RB46 Kenneth Gainwell PHI -5.2
153 WR66 Van Jefferson LAR -5.2
154 QB18 Brock Purdy SF -5.2
155 WR67 Rashod Bateman BAL -5.3
156 WR68 Rashee Rice KC -5.3
157 TE25 Jelani Woods IND -5.4
158 QB19 Jared Goff DET -5.5
159 RB47 Tyler Allgeier ATL -5.5
160 RB48 Zamir White LV -5.5
161 QB20 Derek Carr NO -5.6
162 WR69 Allen Lazard NYJ -5.6
163 WR70 Jameson Williams DET -5.8
164 RB49 Rashaad Penny PHI -5.8
165 TE26 Cade Otton TB -5.9
166 WR71 Zay Jones JAC -6.0
167 TE27 Sam LaPorta DET -6.0
168 WR72 Darius Slayton NYG -6.1
169 WR73 Jayden Reed GB -6.1
170 TE28 Trey McBride ARI -6.2
171 QB21 Kyler Murray ARI -6.2
172 WR74 D. Peoples-Jones CLE -6.3
173 QB22 Jordan Love GB -6.3
174 WR75 DeVante Parker NE -6.4
175 TE29 Dawson Knox BUF -6.5
176 RB50 Roschon Johnson CHI -6.5
177 WR76 Mecole Hardman NYJ -6.6
178 WR77 Marvin Jones DET -6.6
179 WR78 Michael Wilson ARI -6.6
180 TE30 Mike Gesicki NE -6.7
181 WR79 K.J. Osborn MIN -6.7
182 WR80 Puka Nacua LAR -6.7
183 WR81 Rashid Shaheed NO -7.0
184 RB51 Sean Tucker TB -7.0
185 WR82 Josh Palmer LAC -7.0
186 WR83 D.J. Chark CAR -7.0
187 QB23 Kenny Pickett PIT -7.0
188 QB24 Sam Howell WAS -7.0
189 WR84 Rondale Moore ARI -7.1
190 QB25 Bryce Young CAR -7.1
191 QB26 Mac Jones NE -7.2
192 TE31 Taysom Hill NO -7.2
193 RB52 Jamaal Williams NO -7.5
194 RB53 Kendre Miller NO -7.6
195 RB54 Ezekiel Elliott NE -7.7
196 QB27 Jimmy Garoppolo LV -7.8
197 RB55 Jerick McKinnon KC -7.9
198 WR85 Braxton Berrios MIA -7.9
199 WR86 Robert Woods HOU -7.9
200 WR87 Chase Claypool CHI -8.0
201 RB56 Damien Harris BUF -8.0
202 TE32 Michael Mayer LV -8.0
203 RB57 Elijah Mitchell SF -8.0
204 RB58 Rico Dowdle DAL -8.0
205 RB59 Ty Chandler MIN -8.0
206 WR88 Trey Palmer TB -8.1
207 QB28 Desmond Ridder ATL -8.1
208 TE33 Isaiah Likely BAL -8.1
209 RB60 Chris Evans CIN -8.2
210 RB61 Evan Hull IND -8.2
211 RB62 Jordan Mason SF -8.2
212 RB63 Deuce Vaughn DAL -8.3
213 QB29 Ryan Tannehill TEN -8.3
214 RB64 Joshua Kelley LAC -8.3
215 WR89 M. Valdes-Scantling KC -8.4
216 RB65 Devin Singletary HOU -8.5
217 QB30 Matthew Stafford LAR -8.6
218 WR90 Tank Dell HOU -8.6
219 RB66 Chuba Hubbard CAR -8.8
220 RB67 D'Onta Foreman CHI -9.1
221 QB31 C.J. Stroud HOU -9.2
222 RB68 Gus Edwards BAL -9.4
223 QB32 Baker Mayfield TB -9.9
224 RB70 Latavius Murray BUF -9.9
225 TE34 Zach Ertz ARI -10.0


PPR | Half-PPR | Non-PPR | Superflex | FFPC



Doug Orth has written for FF Today since 2006 and been featured in USA TODAY's Fantasy Football Preview magazine since 2010. He is also a high-stakes player who often appears as a guest analyst on a number of national sports radio shows, such as Sirius XM's "Fantasy Drive." Doug is also a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association.