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Top 225 Big Board, Non-PPR: Version 2.0


Preseason Matchup Analysis

By Doug Orth | 8/25/23 |
PPR | Half-PPR | Non-PPR | Superflex | FFPC

As I do every year, allow me to reluctantly engage in a bit of a humble brag before we get into the heart of what I believe is the best draft-day tool around. (Yes, I am biased.) I have been playing in money leagues for more than 20 years and in high-stakes leagues ($1,000-plus entry) for about 15 years. I have played in those high-stakes leagues during the leanest of times, and I did so in part because I knew I had an advantage over my competition. Does it always result in a championship? Of course not. However, I win roughly one of every six leagues I enter and have never had a season in which I lost money. Does that mean it cannot happen? Of course not. With that said, I will stack my success (and the success of many of my readers) against anyone else in the industry.

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Football is simple at its very core but a very complex game to evaluate and analyze because 11 men try to work in harmony roughly 60 times per game, while 11 other men make it their job to disrupt that harmony. Pro football is not pro basketball in that a team can clear out one side of the court when things break down and the offense can still score. Pro football is also not pro baseball in that one player can defeat a pitcher and eight fielders by timing his swing just right. Even as great as Barry Sanders was, he never beat a defense all by himself. In football, every player needs some help to accomplish his goal. That is part of what makes football so great and part of what makes it so highly unpredictable. The violence of the game - even by the tamer standards now - adds another element to the equation that is difficult to quantify.

Regardless, it does not mean we should not try. Over the last month, I have evaluated the weekly matchups for 500-plus players. Analyzing matchups alone requires me to make more than 8,000 "decisions". Each year, my goal is to give those who put their faith in my evaluations the confidence they have the best draft-day tool at their disposal. Even if my grading process is only 70 percent accurate, that is still a significant advantage over any analyst who does not consider it at all.

Fantasy football is a stock market game, and the job of an analyst is to identify when stocks are poised to skyrocket or ready to tank. While last year's results help fantasy managers/analysts set the table for the following season, they are merely a starting point. Fantasy rankings and drafting need to be predictive, not reactive. I have taken this approach for more than 15 years. While some of the processes have changed in that time, the main goal has not.

The Success Score Index (SSI) below is powered in large part by my target and carry predictions. As always, the matchup grades are included in the algorithm. SSI allows me to compare apples to oranges across positions. Perhaps just as importantly, I have been able to eliminate most of the guesswork across different scoring systems (PPR, standard, etc.).

For all of those unfamiliar with my Big Boards, allow me to explain the color-coding system before we start:

Red For lower-level players, a red matchup is the most difficult one a player can face. For a second- or third-tier player, drop your expectations for them at least one grade that week (i.e. from WR2 to WR3). For elite players, expect them to perform one level lower than their usual status (i.e. RB1 performs like an RB2).

Yellow For lower-level players, he is a borderline start at best. For a second- or third-tier player, the slight edge goes to the defense in what is essentially a toss-up. For the elite players, expect slightly better than average production.

White This one can go either way, but I favor the player over the matchup. Generally speaking, these matchups are winnable for all levels of players.

Green For non-elite players, the stage is set for a player to have a productive day. For the elite player, this matchup could produce special numbers.

Note: Players with a next to their name have some degree of injury/character/holdout concern. Each tier break is represented by the different colors in the "FPos" column.

Over the next two weeks, I will release my second and final round of Big Boards for Half-PPR, FFPC and superflex leagues. I will rank at least 225 players for each one and present my final rankings for kickers and defense/special teams as well
.

Here is the scoring system that I used to rank the players in the Non-PPR format:

 Non-PPR Big Board - Top 225
Rk Pos Player Vol Tm SSI 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
1 RB1 Nick Chubb CLE 5.7
2 RB2 Christian McCaffrey SF 5
3 RB3 Bijan Robinson ATL 4.3
4 WR1 Justin Jefferson MIN 4.2
5 RB4 Austin Ekeler LAC 3.5
6 WR2 Ja'Marr Chase CIN 3.5
7 WR3 Tyreek Hill MIA 3.5
8 RB5 Derrick Henry TEN 2.6
9 TE1 Travis Kelce KC 2.5
10 QB1 Jalen Hurts PHI 2.5
11 WR4 Cooper Kupp LAR 2.4
12 RB6 Tony Pollard DAL 2.1
13 QB2 Josh Allen BUF 1.7
14 RB7 Saquon Barkley NYG 1.6
15 WR5 CeeDee Lamb DAL 1.4
16 RB8 David Montgomery DET 1.1
17 QB3 Lamar Jackson BAL 1
18 WR6 Davante Adams LV 1
19 WR7 A.J. Brown PHI 0.8
20 RB9 Aaron Jones GB 0.7
21 RB10 Jonathan Taylor IND 0.7
22 RB11 J.K. Dobbins BAL 0.6
23 RB12 Breece Hall NYJ 0.5
24 TE2 Mark Andrews BAL 0.4
25 RB13 Rhamondre Stevenson NE 0.3
26 QB4 Patrick Mahomes KC 0.3
27 RB14 Dameon Pierce HOU 0.2
28 WR8 A. St. Brown DET 0.2
29 WR9 Stefon Diggs BUF 0.1
30 WR10 Garrett Wilson NYJ 0.1
31 WR11 Jaylen Waddle MIA 0.1
32 QB5 Justin Herbert LAC 0
33 RB15 Kenneth Walker SEA -0.1
34 RB16 Jahmyr Gibbs DET -0.1
35 RB17 Najee Harris PIT -0.2
36 RB18 Joe Mixon CIN -0.3
37 QB6 Joe Burrow CIN -0.4
38 WR12 Chris Olave NO -0.4
39 WR13 Calvin Ridley JAC -0.5
40 QB7 Justin Fields CHI -0.5
41 WR14 Tee Higgins CIN -0.8
42 TE3 Darren Waller NYG -1
43 RB19 Miles Sanders CAR -1
44 RB20 Travis Etienne JAC -1.1
45 WR15 DeVonta Smith PHI -1.1
46 WR16 Deebo Samuel SF -1.2
47 WR17 Elijah Moore CLE -1.3
48 WR18 DK Metcalf SEA -1.4
49 RB21 Alexander Mattison MIN -1.4
50 WR19 Tyler Lockett SEA -1.6
51 WR20 D.J. Moore CHI -1.6
52 RB22 James Cook BUF -1.8
53 QB8 Deshaun Watson CLE -1.8
54 WR21 Brandon Aiyuk SF -1.8
55 RB23 Josh Jacobs LV -1.8
56 WR22 Keenan Allen LAC -1.8
57 QB9 Trevor Lawrence JAC -1.8
58 WR23 Amari Cooper CLE -2
59 RB24 Cam Akers LAR -2
60 QB10 Geno Smith SEA -2
61 WR24 Christian Kirk JAC -2.1
62 TE4 Kyle Pitts ATL -2.1
63 RB25 Javonte Williams DEN -2.2
64 WR25 Christian Watson GB -2.2
65 TE5 George Kittle SF -2.2
66 TE6 Dallas Goedert PHI -2.2
67 RB26 Brian Robinson Jr. WAS -2.3
68 WR26 Terry McLaurin WAS -2.4
69 WR27 DeAndre Hopkins TEN -2.5
70 RB27 Alvin Kamara NO -2.6
71 RB28 Samaje Perine DEN -2.6
72 TE7 David Njoku CLE -2.7
73 RB29 Rachaad White TB -2.8
74 WR28 George Pickens PIT -2.8
75 WR29 Mike Williams LAC -2.9
76 WR30 Drake London ATL -2.9
77 WR31 Gabriel Davis BUF -3
78 QB11 Anthony Richardson IND -3
79 WR32 Chris Godwin TB -3.1
80 WR33 Brandin Cooks DAL -3.1
81 WR34 Jahan Dotson WAS -3.1
82 WR35 Courtland Sutton DEN -3.1
83 TE8 Dalton Kincaid BUF -3.1
84 WR36 Diontae Johnson PIT -3.1
85 WR37 Mike Evans TB -3.2
86 WR38 Zay Flowers BAL -3.2
87 TE9 T.J. Hockenson MIN -3.2
88 QB12 Russell Wilson DEN -3.3
89 WR39 Michael Pittman Jr. IND -3.3
90 TE10 Pat Freiermuth PIT -3.4
91 RB30 James Conner ARI -3.4
92 TE11 Evan Engram JAC -3.4
93 RB31 Antonio Gibson WAS -3.4
94 QB13 Kirk Cousins MIN -3.5
95 WR40 Jordan Addison MIN -3.5
96 RB32 Isiah Pacheco KC -3.5
97 RB33 D'Andre Swift PHI -3.5
98 WR41 J. Smith-Njigba SEA -3.5
99 WR42 Jerry Jeudy DEN -3.5
100 TE12 Juwan Johnson NO -3.6
101 QB14 Dak Prescott DAL -3.6
102 RB34 Devon Achane MIA -3.6
103 QB15 Daniel Jones NYG -3.6
104 TE13 Gerald Everett LAC -3.8
105 WR43 Treylon Burks TEN -3.8
106 TE14 Hunter Henry NE -4.1
107 TE15 Greg Dulcich DEN -4.1
108 QB16 Tua Tagovailoa MIA -4.3
109 RB35 Dalvin Cook NYJ -4.3
110 TE16 Chigoziem Okonkwo TEN -4.3
111 WR44 JuJu Smith-Schuster NE -4.4
112 TE17 Luke Musgrave GB -4.4
113 QB17 Aaron Rodgers NYJ -4.5
114 TE18 Jake Ferguson DAL -4.5
115 WR45 Romeo Doubs GB -4.6
116 WR46 Kadarius Toney KC -4.6
117 WR47 Michael Thomas NO -4.6
118 RB36 Jeff Wilson MIA -4.6
119 WR48 Darnell Mooney CHI -4.8
120 WR49 Marquise Brown ARI -4.8
121 RB37 AJ Dillon GB -4.8
122 WR50 Jakobi Meyers LV -4.8
123 RB38 Khalil Herbert CHI -4.9
124 WR51 Jonathan Mingo CAR -5
125 WR52 Marvin Mims DEN -5
126 WR53 Quentin Johnston LAC -5
127 RB39 Zach Charbonnet SEA -5.1
128 QB18 Kyler Murray ARI -5.1
129 RB40 Tyler Allgeier ATL -5.2
130 WR54 Michael Gallup DAL -5.2
131 RB41 Tank Bigsby JAC -5.2
132 WR55 Tyler Boyd CIN -5.3
133 WR56 Skyy Moore KC -5.4
134 WR57 Nico Collins HOU -5.4
135 WR58 Adam Thielen CAR -5.4
136 WR59 Alec Pierce IND -5.5
137 WR60 Curtis Samuel WAS -5.5
138 TE19 Dalton Schultz HOU -5.6
139 TE20 Tyler Higbee LAR -5.6
140 TE21 Tyler Conklin NYJ -5.7
141 RB42 Raheem Mostert MIA -5.7
142 TE22 Cole Kmet CHI -5.8
143 RB43 Tyjae Spears TEN -5.8
144 RB44 Jerome Ford CLE -5.9
145 WR61 Rashee Rice KC -5.9
146 RB45 Rashaad Penny PHI -5.9
147 RB46 C. Edwards-Helaire KC -5.9
148 WR62 Allen Lazard NYJ -6
149 WR63 Isaiah Hodgins NYG -6
150 QB19 Derek Carr NO -6.1
151 WR64 Hunter Renfrow LV -6.1
152 QB20 Jared Goff DET -6.2
153 TE23 Sam LaPorta DET -6.2
154 TE24 Jelani Woods IND -6.3
155 WR65 Van Jefferson LAR -6.3
156 WR66 DeVante Parker NE -6.4
157 WR67 Odell Beckham Jr. BAL -6.5
158 WR68 Rashod Bateman BAL -6.5
159 WR69 Parris Campbell NYG -6.5
160 RB47 Jaylen Warren PIT -6.5
161 QB21 Sam Howell WAS -6.5
162 QB22 Jordan Love GB -6.5
163 WR70 K.J. Osborn MIN -6.6
164 WR71 Mecole Hardman NYJ -6.6
165 RB48 Jamaal Williams NO -6.6
166 WR72 Jameson Williams DET -6.6
167 WR73 Josh Downs IND -6.6
168 WR74 D. Peoples-Jones CLE -6.6
169 WR75 Zay Jones JAC -6.7
170 WR76 Puka Nacua LAR -6.8
171 RB49 Elijah Mitchell SF -6.8
172 QB23 Brock Purdy SF -6.9
173 WR77 Darius Slayton NYG -6.9
174 QB24 Kenny Pickett PIT -7.2
175 WR78 D.J. Chark CAR -7.2
176 RB50 Ezekiel Elliott NE -7.2
177 QB25 Jimmy Garoppolo LV -7.3
178 RB51 Zamir White LV -7.3
179 RB52 Roschon Johnson CHI -7.3
180 QB26 Mac Jones NE -7.3
181 QB27 Bryce Young CAR -7.3
182 WR79 Robert Woods HOU -7.3
183 WR80 Michael Wilson ARI -7.4
184 TE25 Taysom Hill NO -7.4
185 RB53 Sean Tucker TB -7.4
186 WR81 Chase Claypool CHI -7.4
187 WR82 Jayden Reed GB -7.4
188 RB54 Damien Harris BUF -7.4
189 WR83 Rashid Shaheed NO -7.4
190 QB28 Ryan Tannehill TEN -7.5
191 RB55 Kenneth Gainwell PHI -7.5
192 WR84 Trey Palmer TB -7.6
193 WR85 M. Valdes-Scantling KC -7.6
194 RB56 Kendre Miller NO -7.7
195 WR86 Braxton Berrios MIA -7.7
196 WR87 Josh Palmer LAC -7.8
197 TE26 Dawson Knox BUF -7.8
198 RB57 Jordan Mason SF -7.9
199 TE27 Mike Gesicki NE -7.9
200 TE28 Irv Smith CIN -7.9
201 WR88 Tank Dell HOU -7.9
202 WR89 Marvin Jones DET -7.9
203 RB58 Gus Edwards BAL -8
204 TE29 Hayden Hurst CAR -8
205 QB29 Matthew Stafford LAR -8
206 RB59 Devin Singletary HOU -8.1
207 RB60 Jerick McKinnon KC -8.1
208 TE30 Trey McBride ARI -8.2
209 RB61 D'Onta Foreman CHI -8.3
210 RB62 Rico Dowdle DAL -8.4
211 RB63 Chris Evans CIN -8.4
212 RB64 Chuba Hubbard CAR -8.4
213 WR90 Allen Robinson PIT -8.6
214 RB65 Ty Chandler MIN -8.6
215 RB66 Joshua Kelley LAC -8.7
216 RB67 C. Patterson ATL -8.7
217 RB68 Deuce Vaughn DAL -8.8
218 RB69 Evan Hull IND -9
219 WR91 Jalin Hyatt NYG -9.4
220 RB70 Latavius Murray BUF -9.8
221 WR92 Rondale Moore ARI -10.1
222 RB71 Chase Edmonds TB -10.2
223 RB72 Kyren Williams LAR -10.3
224 WR93 Richie James KC -10.4
225 RB73 Keaontay Ingram ARI -10.5


PPR | Half-PPR | Non-PPR | Superflex | FFPC


Doug Orth has written for FF Today since 2006 and been featured in USA TODAY's Fantasy Football Preview magazine since 2010. He is also a high-stakes player who often appears as a guest analyst on a number of national sports radio shows, such as Sirius XM's "Fantasy Drive." Doug is also a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association.