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Top 225 Big Board, Superflex PPR: Version 2.0


Preseason Matchup Analysis

By Doug Orth | 8/29/23 |
PPR | Half-PPR | Non-PPR | Superflex | FFPC


As I do every year, allow me to reluctantly engage in a bit of a humble brag before we get into the heart of what I believe is the best draft-day tool around. (Yes, I am biased.) I have been playing in money leagues for more than 20 years and in high-stakes leagues ($1,000-plus entry) for about 15 years. I have played in those high-stakes leagues during the leanest of times, and I did so in part because I knew I had an advantage over my competition. Does it always result in a championship? Of course not. However, I win roughly one of every six leagues I enter and have never had a season in which I lost money. Does that mean it cannot happen? Of course not. With that said, I will stack my success (and the success of many of my readers) against anyone else in the industry.

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Football is simple at its very core but a very complex game to evaluate and analyze because 11 men try to work in harmony roughly 60 times per game, while 11 other men make it their job to disrupt that harmony. Pro football is not pro basketball in that a team can clear out one side of the court when things break down and the offense can still score. Pro football is also not pro baseball in that one player can defeat a pitcher and eight fielders by timing his swing just right. Even as great as Barry Sanders was, he never beat a defense all by himself. In football, every player needs some help to accomplish his goal. That is part of what makes football so great and part of what makes it so highly unpredictable. The violence of the game - even by the tamer standards now - adds another element to the equation that is difficult to quantify.

Regardless, it does not mean we should not try. Over the last month, I have evaluated the weekly matchups for 500-plus players. Analyzing matchups alone requires me to make more than 8,000 "decisions". Each year, my goal is to give those who put their faith in my evaluations the confidence they have the best draft-day tool at their disposal. Even if my grading process is only 70 percent accurate, that is still a significant advantage over any analyst who does not consider it at all.

Fantasy football is a stock market game, and the job of an analyst is to identify when stocks are poised to skyrocket or ready to tank. While last year's results help fantasy managers/analysts set the table for the following season, they are merely a starting point. Fantasy rankings and drafting need to be predictive, not reactive. I have taken this approach for more than 15 years. While some of the processes have changed in that time, the main goal has not.

The Success Score Index (SSI) below is powered in large part by my target and carry predictions. As always, the matchup grades are included in the algorithm. SSI allows me to compare apples to oranges across positions. Perhaps just as importantly, I have been able to eliminate most of the guesswork across different scoring systems (PPR, standard, etc.).

For all of those unfamiliar with my Big Boards, allow me to explain the color-coding system before we start:

Red For lower-level players, a red matchup is the most difficult one a player can face. For a second- or third-tier player, drop your expectations for them at least one grade that week (i.e. from WR2 to WR3). For elite players, expect them to perform one level lower than their usual status (i.e. RB1 performs like an RB2).

Yellow For lower-level players, he is a borderline start at best. For a second- or third-tier player, the slight edge goes to the defense in what is essentially a toss-up. For the elite players, expect slightly better than average production.

White This one can go either way, but I favor the player over the matchup. Generally speaking, these matchups are winnable for all levels of players.

Green For non-elite players, the stage is set for a player to have a productive day. For the elite player, this matchup could produce special numbers.

Note: Players with a next to their name have some degree of injury/character/holdout concern. Each tier break is represented by the different colors in the "FPos" column.

New this year is a "Vol" column, which reflects the volatility of my ranking. In short, it reflects the confidence I have in the player to move into the next tier or two - be it up or down.

Over the next two weeks, I will release my second and final round of Big Boards for Half-PPR leagues. I will rank at least 225 players for each one and present my final rankings for kickers and defense/special teams as well.

Here is the scoring system that I used to rank the players in the PPR format:

 Superflex Big Board (PPR) - Top 225
Rk Pos Player Vol Tm SSI 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
1 QB1 Jalen Hurts PHI 9.5
2 QB2 Josh Allen BUF 9.0
3 WR1 Justin Jefferson MIN 8.4
4 QB3 Lamar Jackson BAL 8.3
5 QB4 Patrick Mahomes KC 7.7
6 QB5 Justin Herbert LAC 7.3
7 WR2 Cooper Kupp LAR 7.1
8 WR3 Ja'Marr Chase CIN 7.0
9 RB1 Christian McCaffrey SF 7.0
10 WR4 Tyreek Hill MIA 7.0
11 QB6 Joe Burrow CIN 6.9
12 QB7 Justin Fields CHI 6.8
13 QB8 Trevor Lawrence JAC 5.6
14 QB9 Deshaun Watson CLE 5.6
15 RB2 Nick Chubb CLE 5.5
16 RB3 Austin Ekeler LAC 5.5
17 QB10 Geno Smith SEA 5.2
18 WR5 CeeDee Lamb DAL 4.7
19 RB4 Bijan Robinson ATL 4.5
20 WR6 Davante Adams LV 4.3
21 QB11 Anthony Richardson IND 4.3
22 TE1 Travis Kelce KC 4.1
23 WR7 Stefon Diggs BUF 3.5
24 QB12 Russell Wilson DEN 3.5
25 QB13 Kirk Cousins MIN 3.3
26 WR8 A. St. Brown DET 3.2
27 QB14 Dak Prescott DAL 3.2
28 WR9 Garrett Wilson NYJ 3.2
29 QB15 Daniel Jones NYG 3.2
30 RB5 Tony Pollard DAL 3.0
31 WR10 A.J. Brown PHI 2.9
32 WR11 Jaylen Waddle MIA 2.9
33 RB6 Saquon Barkley NYG 2.6
34 QB16 Aaron Rodgers NYJ 2.5
35 RB7 Derrick Henry TEN 2.4
36 WR12 Calvin Ridley JAC 2.4
37 WR13 Chris Olave NO 2.0
38 RB8 Jonathan Taylor IND 1.6
39 RB9 Joe Mixon CIN 1.5
40 RB10 Rhamondre Stevenson NE 1.5
41 RB11 Aaron Jones GB 1.4
42 RB12 Dameon Pierce HOU 1.3
43 QB17 Tua Tagovailoa MIA 1.2
44 TE2 Mark Andrews BAL 1.2
45 RB13 Jahmyr Gibbs DET 1.2
46 WR14 Keenan Allen LAC 1.2
47 WR15 DK Metcalf SEA 1.1
48 QB18 Kyler Murray ARI 0.9
49 WR16 Tee Higgins CIN 0.9
50 QB19 Sam Howell WAS 0.9
51 WR17 DeVonta Smith PHI 0.8
52 QB20 Jordan Love GB 0.8
53 QB21 Derek Carr NO 0.7
54 WR18 Brandon Aiyuk SF 0.7
55 RB14 Najee Harris PIT 0.7
56 RB15 Breece Hall NYJ 0.6
57 QB22 Jared Goff DET 0.6
58 WR19 D.J. Moore CHI 0.5
59 QB23 Brock Purdy SF 0.4
60 WR20 Tyler Lockett SEA 0.4
61 RB16 David Montgomery DET 0.3
62 TE3 Darren Waller NYG 0.3
63 RB17 Kenneth Walker SEA 0.2
64 QB24 Kenny Pickett PIT 0.1
65 RB18 J.K. Dobbins BAL 0.1
66 RB19 Josh Jacobs LV 0.1
67 WR21 Diontae Johnson PIT 0.1
68 WR22 DeAndre Hopkins TEN 0.0
69 WR23 Terry McLaurin WAS 0.0
70 WR24 Elijah Moore CLE 0.0
71 WR25 Christian Watson GB 0.0
72 WR26 Deebo Samuel SF -0.1
73 WR27 Amari Cooper CLE -0.2
74 RB20 Miles Sanders CAR -0.2
75 RB21 James Cook BUF -0.3
76 WR28 Courtland Sutton DEN -0.3
77 WR29 Drake London ATL -0.4
78 RB22 Travis Etienne JAC -0.4
79 WR30 Gabriel Davis BUF -0.5
80 QB25 Jimmy Garoppolo LV -0.6
81 RB23 Alexander Mattison MIN -0.6
82 WR31 Mike Evans TB -0.7
83 WR32 Chris Godwin TB -0.7
84 WR33 Mike Williams LAC -0.7
85 RB24 Rachaad White TB -0.8
86 RB25 James Conner ARI -0.9
87 QB26 Mac Jones NE -1.0
88 WR34 Michael Pittman Jr. IND -1.0
89 WR35 Christian Kirk JAC -1.1
90 QB27 Ryan Tannehill TEN -1.2
91 WR36 Jahan Dotson WAS -1.3
92 RB26 Alvin Kamara NO -1.3
93 RB27 Cam Akers LAR -1.3
94 QB28 Bryce Young CAR -1.4
95 WR37 Jordan Addison MIN -1.5
96 WR38 Brandin Cooks DAL -1.5
97 WR39 Jerry Jeudy DEN -1.5
98 WR40 George Pickens PIT -1.6
99 QB29 Matthew Stafford LAR -1.7
100 WR41 J. Smith-Njigba SEA -1.7
101 WR42 Zay Flowers BAL -1.7
102 WR43 Treylon Burks TEN -1.8
103 TE4 Dallas Goedert PHI -2.0
104 TE5 David Njoku CLE -2.0
105 RB28 Javonte Williams DEN -2.0
106 TE6 T.J. Hockenson MIN -2.1
107 QB30 C.J. Stroud HOU -2.1
108 TE7 George Kittle SF -2.1
109 WR44 Marquise Brown ARI -2.1
110 TE8 Kyle Pitts ATL -2.2
111 WR45 Kadarius Toney KC -2.2
112 RB29 Brian Robinson Jr. WAS -2.4
113 RB30 Antonio Gibson WAS -2.4
114 TE9 Evan Engram JAC -2.5
115 RB31 D'Andre Swift PHI -3.0
116 QB31 Desmond Ridder ATL -3.1
117 TE10 Pat Freiermuth PIT -3.1
118 RB32 Samaje Perine DEN -3.1
119 RB33 Devon Achane MIA -3.1
120 RB34 Isiah Pacheco KC -3.2
121 TE11 Gerald Everett LAC -3.2
122 QB32 Baker Mayfield TB -3.3
123 RB35 Zach Charbonnet SEA -3.3
124 WR46 JuJu Smith-Schuster NE -3.3
125 RB36 Khalil Herbert CHI -3.3
126 WR47 Michael Thomas NO -3.4
127 WR48 Skyy Moore KC -3.6
128 TE12 Juwan Johnson NO -3.6
129 TE13 Dalton Kincaid BUF -3.6
130 TE14 Jake Ferguson DAL -3.6
131 TE15 Dalton Schultz HOU -3.7
132 WR49 Jakobi Meyers LV -3.9
133 WR50 Nico Collins HOU -4.0
134 TE16 Tyler Higbee LAR -4.0
135 RB37 Tank Bigsby JAC -4.1
136 RB38 Dalvin Cook NYJ -4.1
137 WR51 Romeo Doubs GB -4.1
138 RB39 Jeff Wilson MIA -4.2
139 TE17 Chigoziem Okonkwo TEN -4.3
140 RB40 AJ Dillon GB -4.3
141 TE18 Hunter Henry NE -4.4
142 TE19 Greg Dulcich DEN -4.5
143 WR52 Isaiah Hodgins NYG -4.6
144 WR53 Marvin Mims DEN -4.7
145 WR54 Jonathan Mingo CAR -4.7
146 WR55 Allen Lazard NYJ -4.7
147 WR56 Darnell Mooney CHI -4.7
148 TE20 Tyler Conklin NYJ -4.7
149 TE21 Luke Musgrave GB -4.7
150 RB41 Tyjae Spears TEN -4.8
151 WR57 DeVante Parker NE -4.9
152 RB42 Jerome Ford CLE -4.9
153 WR58 Puka Nacua LAR -5.0
154 WR59 Michael Gallup DAL -5.0
155 TE22 Cole Kmet CHI -5.0
156 RB43 Jaylen Warren PIT -5.2
157 RB44 Tyler Allgeier ATL -5.2
158 WR60 Tyler Boyd CIN -5.2
159 WR61 Alec Pierce IND -5.3
160 WR62 Quentin Johnston LAC -5.4
161 TE23 Sam LaPorta DET -5.5
162 WR63 Zay Jones JAC -5.6
163 WR64 Adam Thielen CAR -5.6
164 WR65 Parris Campbell NYG -5.7
165 WR66 Odell Beckham Jr. BAL -5.7
166 RB45 C. Edwards-Helaire KC -5.8
167 WR67 Rashod Bateman BAL -5.9
168 WR68 Curtis Samuel WAS -6.0
169 WR69 Hunter Renfrow LV -6.1
170 RB46 Elijah Mitchell SF -6.2
171 WR70 Van Jefferson LAR -6.2
172 WR71 Robert Woods HOU -6.2
173 RB47 Roschon Johnson CHI -6.2
174 RB48 Devin Singletary HOU -6.4
175 WR72 Mecole Hardman NYJ -6.4
176 RB49 Rashaad Penny PHI -6.5
177 TE24 Jelani Woods IND -6.5
178 TE25 Hayden Hurst CAR -6.6
179 WR73 K.J. Osborn MIN -6.7
180 RB50 Jamaal Williams NO -6.7
181 RB51 Zamir White LV -6.8
182 WR74 Josh Downs IND -6.9
183 RB52 Damien Harris BUF -6.9
184 RB53 Deuce Vaughn DAL -7.0
185 TE26 Irv Smith CIN -7.0
186 RB54 Ezekiel Elliott NE -7.0
187 WR75 Michael Wilson ARI -7.1
188 WR76 Darius Slayton NYG -7.1
189 TE27 Cade Otton TB -7.1
190 WR77 Jayden Reed GB -7.3
191 RB55 Kenneth Gainwell PHI -7.3
192 RB56 Raheem Mostert MIA -7.4
193 WR78 Jameson Williams DET -7.5
194 WR79 D.J. Chark CAR -7.6
195 WR80 Rashee Rice KC -7.6
196 RB57 Sean Tucker TB -7.7
197 WR81 Chase Claypool CHI -7.7
198 RB58 Kendre Miller NO -7.7
199 WR82 Josh Palmer LAC -7.8
200 RB59 Rico Dowdle DAL -7.8
201 WR83 D. Peoples-Jones CLE -7.8
202 WR84 M. Valdes-Scantling KC -7.9
203 RB60 Joshua Kelley LAC -7.9
204 WR85 Tank Dell HOU -7.9
205 WR86 Rashid Shaheed NO -7.9
206 RB61 Ty Chandler MIN -8.0
207 RB62 Chuba Hubbard CAR -8.1
208 RB63 Gus Edwards BAL -8.1
209 WR87 Rondale Moore ARI -8.1
210 RB64 Jerick McKinnon KC -8.2
211 RB65 Jordan Mason SF -8.4
212 WR88 Braxton Berrios MIA -8.5
213 RB66 Evan Hull IND -8.5
214 RB67 Kyren Williams LAR -8.5
215 WR89 Trey Palmer TB -8.8
216 RB68 D'Onta Foreman CHI -8.8
217 RB69 Keaontay Ingram ARI -9.3
218 RB70 Latavius Murray BUF -9.4
219 RB71 C. Patterson ATL -9.6
220 WR90 Jalin Hyatt NYG -10.1
221 WR91 Richie James KC -10.4
222 RB72 Pierre Strong Jr. CLE -10.5
223 WR92 Wan'Dale Robinson NYG -10.9
224 RB73 Chris Evans CIN -11.5
225 RB74 Tyrion Davis-Price SF -11.5


PPR | Half-PPR | Non-PPR | Superflex | FFPC


Doug Orth has written for FF Today since 2006 and been featured in USA TODAY's Fantasy Football Preview magazine since 2010. He is also a high-stakes player who often appears as a guest analyst on a number of national sports radio shows, such as Sirius XM's "Fantasy Drive." Doug is also a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association.