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Doug Orth | Archive | Email |
Staff Writer


Sizing up the Competition
All Out Blitz: Volume 112
10/27/16

Last season, I wrote a piece entitled, "Know Thy Opponent". The main point of the story certainly was to give DFS players another valuable tool in their weekly preparation, but also provide the redraft owner with a handy instrument with which to make better lineup decisions.

A few weeks after doing the aforementioned story - along with its companion piece, "Just Gravy" - I finished first among 7,000-plus entries in a DraftKings contest, suggesting I may have been on to something. With that in mind, I figured it would be smart to create similar pieces this year and do them around the midpoint of the season.

Like last year, I have made a chart for each of the four primary fantasy positions. (The bolded numbers at the top obviously reflect the week.) Of the utmost importance are the numbers directly to the right of each team, which signify that defense’s rank against that position in that particular week. As an added bonus, I felt it was pertinent to highlight which of those performances came against high-caliber competition. Thus, the ranks that you see in red print reflect those performances that came against one of the top 10 players at that position (eight for tight ends). I felt that by attacking this story from that angle, I would not only help those owners hoping to get an edge in their DFS contests, but also provide some context in regards to how (and against whom) those ranks were achieved. Obviously, the ranks achieved in certain weeks didn’t come as a result of only the primary players at a position, but I think this kind of study is very helpful nonetheless.

To help you understand this better, let me provide a couple of examples: Cam Newton squares off against Arizona this week. The Cardinals have yet to face a top-10 quarterback and allowed their only top-10 fantasy performance to a quarterback (Blaine Gabbert) in Week 5. Atlanta has opposed top-10 quarterbacks three times, yet allowed the most fantasy points to the position four times (Weeks 1-4).

As is usually the case, I’m not going to attempt to rationalize or explain how every rank was achieved, but rather pick and choose some teams or trends that catch my eye. While I will be approaching this article from a DFS perspective this week, I think there are obvious benefits to “regular” owners as well.

 Weekly Rank for Defenses vs. QBs
  Team 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Avg Rk
1 Arizona Cardinals 21 31 13 11 9 30 23 19.7
2 Atlanta Falcons 5 5 4 3 22 22 15 10.9
3 Baltimore Ravens 31 22 22 6 23 7 12 17.6
4 Buffalo Bills 23 9 31 26 26 14 14 20.4
5 Carolina Panthers 30 10 24 1 17 1 - 13.8
6 Chicago Bears 16 23 6 28 6 24 4 15.2
7 Cincinnati Bengals 18 11 1 30 12 5 8 12.1
8 Cleveland Browns 11 19 10 14 2 4 7 9.6
9 Dallas Cowboys 13 14 11 20 7 19 - 14.0
10 Denver Broncos 10 28 25 23 19 23 29 22.4
11 Detroit Lions 1 18 3 8 13 2 5 7.1
12 Green Bay Packers 19 13 2 - 24 13 30 16.8
13 Houston Texans 25 32 14 29 11 8 22 20.1
14 Indianapolis Colts 4 26 23 4 5 16 13 13.0
15 Jacksonville Jaguars 7 7 21 13 - 21 21 15.0
16 Kansas City Chiefs 20 27 32 2 - 26 2 18.1
17 Los Angeles Rams 22 25 5 24 16 3 25 17.1
18 Miami Dolphins 24 3 26 19 1 27 3 14.7
19 Minnesota Vikings 15 17 18 27 25 - 27 21.5
20 New England Patriots 12 8 27 16 14 9 19 15.0
21 New Orleans Saints 8 24 8 9 - 6 11 11.0
22 New York Giants 26 21 9 18 14 20 24 18.9
23 New York Jets 14 4 19 5 3 18 28 13.0
24 Oakland Raiders 2 2 30 7 4 28 20 13.3
25 Philadelphia Eagles 29 30 28 - 10 15 26 23.0
26 Pittsburgh Steelers 28 12 7 12 18 25 9 15.9
27 San Diego Chargers 3 14 17 21 8 17 18 14.0
28 San Francisco 49ers 32 1 12 10 21 12 6 13.4
29 Seattle Seahawks 17 29 29 25 - 11 16 21.2
30 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 6 6 16 15 27 - 17 14.5
31 Tennessee Titans 27 20 20 17 28 10 1 17.6
32 Washington Redskins 9 16 15 22 20 29 10 17.3

The top-10 quarterbacks through Week 7

1. Matt Ryan
2. Andrew Luck
3. Drew Brees
4. Matthew Stafford
5. Ben Roethlisberger
6. Derek Carr
7. Philip Rivers
8. Aaron Rodgers
9. Marcus Mariota
10. Andy Dalton

Quick observations:

- Need a QB1? Look no further than the Lions' next opponent. Elite quarterbacks such as Andrew Luck and Aaron Rodgers each threw for four touchdowns against them, while every starting quarterback has managed to score at least 20 fantasy points versus Detroit. This is good news for Brock Osweiler this week and Sam Bradford in Week 9.

- Ditto for the Browns. The Browns famously gave up 406 yards and three touchdowns to Tom Brady in his season debut, but he's really the only surefire every-week fantasy starter they have faced so far. Cleveland has surrendered at least two passing scores to every starting quarterback and three TDs to four of the last five. That means quarterback streamers should feel pretty good about rolling with Ryan Fitzpatrick (gasp) this week, Dak Prescott in Week 9 and Joe Flacco in Week 10.

- The Saints have allowed at least 20 fantasy points and a QB1 finish to all but one quarterback as well, although they deserve a bit of a pass considering three of those five instances came against top-10 quarterbacks. The true barometer for this defense should come in the next two weeks, as they face a less-than-100-percent Russell Wilson and Colin Kaepernick.

- Oakland has run extremely hot-and-cold thus far, giving up QB7 finishes or better to four quarterbacks and QB20 finishes or worse to three other signal-callers. The one commonality I can detect: Excluding Joe Flacco's volume-assisted QB7 finish in Week 4, the Raiders have yielded at least 30 fantasy points to top-10 quarterbacks (Brees, Ryan and Rivers) and 15.1 points or fewer to the average options (Marcus Mariota, Alex Smith and Blake Bortles).

- Although there is more to it than rookie S Keanu Neal's debut in Week 3, it is notable the Falcons' pass defense has obviously benefited from his presence. After surrendering at least 30 fantasy points in each of the first four weeks (James Winston, Derek Carr, Drew Brees and Cam Newton/Derek Anderson), Atlanta has yielded no more than 16.6 to any of the next three signal-callers. Perhaps Vic Beasley's 5.5 sacks over that same stretch has contributed to quarterbacks feeling less comfortable in the pocket?

- You'd be hard-pressed to find a unit more up-and-down than the Dolphins, who have allowed three top-three finishes and three in which an owner would have been disappointed playing a quarterback going against them in two-QB leagues. They were carved up by Jimmy Garoppolo and Mariota, yet held Roethlisberger in check.

- After holding each of the five signal-callers they faced under 20 fantasy points, the Titans have yielded QB10 and QB1 finishes to Cody Kessler and Andrew Luck, respectively. Week 8 figures to be a great test to see if this is a trend or anomaly, as the disappointing Bortles will take his shot at turning his season around against this defense on a short week.

- The FF Points allowed page suggests the six defenses owners should avoid most are (in order): the Eagles, Broncos, Bills, Vikings, Cardinals and Seahawks. My analysis confirms that as well. While each unit has permitted at least one top-12 finish, consistent success against those units has been elusive. Of the bunch, only Houston (5:3) and Philadelphia (6:5) have allowed more passing touchdowns than interceptions out of that group. Obviously, neither mark is all that appealing for quarterback streamers.

 Weekly Rank for Defenses vs. RBs
  Team 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Avg Rank
1 Arizona Cardinals 17 27 9 28 14 30 28 21.9
2 Atlanta Falcons 12 2 4 25 21 8 6 11.1
3 Baltimore Ravens 25 4 31 29 25 24 7 20.7
4 Buffalo Bills 28 1 15 21 15 26 2 15.4
5 Carolina Panthers 4 31 27 14 18 23 - 19.5
6 Chicago Bears 23 10 3 24 26 19 29 19.1
7 Cincinnati Bengals 10 13 29 27 2 6 13 14.3
8 Cleveland Browns 9 23 14 2 10 13 1 10.2
9 Dallas Cowboys 19 15 20 16 23 26 - 19.8
10 Denver Broncos 30 5 8 30 1 21 24 17.0
11 Detroit Lions 26 14 24 19 13 20 12 18.3
12 Green Bay Packers 21 32 28 - 24 11 26 23.7
13 Houston Texans 24 18 12 7 9 17 5 13.1
14 Indianapolis Colts 1 9 19 17 5 7 14 10.3
15 Jacksonville Jaguars 29 7 26 12 - 15 10 16.5
16 Kansas City Chiefs 3 20 23 8 - 29 16 16.5
17 Los Angeles Rams 6 29 16 18 7 25 23 17.7
18 Miami Dolphins 18 10 18 23 12 16 21 16.9
19 Minnesota Vikings 8 30 21 5 27 - 21 18.7
20 New England Patriots 11 22 22 11 28 14 18 18.0
21 New Orleans Saints 2 25 1 13 - 10 11 10.3
22 New York Giants 16 26 25 9 17 9 25 18.1
23 New York Jets 26 16 30 10 16 3 30 18.7
24 Oakland Raiders 14 7 6 4 20 4 26 11.6
25 Philadelphia Eagles 12 23 32 - 6 5 20 16.3
26 Pittsburgh Steelers 22 12 2 26 22 2 4 12.9
27 San Diego Chargers 7 21 11 1 7 18 9 10.6
28 San Francisco 49ers 31 17 7 3 3 1 3 9.3
29 Seattle Seahawks 20 28 10 22 - 28 15 20.5
30 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 15 3 12 15 4 - 8 9.5
31 Tennessee Titans 32 19 17 20 11 12 17 18.3
32 Washington Redskins 5 6 5 6 19 22 19 11.7

The top-10 running backs through Week 7

1. David Johnson
2. DeMarco Murray
3. Melvin Gordon
4. LeSean McCoy
5. Ezekiel Elliott
6. LeGarrette Blount
7. Tevin Coleman
8. Devonta Freeman
9. Matt Forte
10. Spencer Ware

Quick observations:

- Perhaps the biggest surprise of this group (at least based on preseason expectations) would be the Cowboys, although not all the credit can go to DC Rod Marinelli. Dallas has only seen the running back carry the ball against its defense 99 times through six games - an average of 16.5 times per contest. The 'Boys have yielded 4.6 YPC on those 99 carries, which means they are doing a fine job of shortening the games to reduce play volume on both sides (which was expected) and getting out to early leads (not as expected) in order to make opponents more one-dimensional. The high YPC suggests Dallas could actually be a positive matchup for running backs if opponents could flip the script, although I wouldn't expect that to happen in either of the next two weeks against Philadelphia or Cleveland - two of the slower-paced teams in the NFL per Football Outsiders.

A ton of credit also needs to be thrown in the direction of Bears DC Vic Fangio, whose run defense is actually right on par with the Cowboys' in terms of fantasy points allowed despite a ton of personnel losses and being in much less favorable situations. Unlike Dallas' game-script dependent defense, Chicago is giving up only 3.8 YPC and 80 yards rushing per game to opposing running backs. Not surprisingly, the best effort turned in by an opposing running back against Bears' defense thus far in PPR scoring was by Ezekiel Elliott (18.0) in Week 3.

- The Lions appear to have a strong defense against running backs, but a closer look reveals that is not the case. In what has to be considered a bit of a fluke, four running backs have topped 100 total yards (two of which rushed for over 100) against Detroit, but no back has scored a rushing touchdown (two have scored receiving). The Lions are allowing 4.9 YPC to running backs and have yielded 44 receptions to the position (fourth-most in the league) to further support the likelihood the dam is about to break.

- San Francisco's inability to stop the run has been well-documented, but Tampa Bay surprisingly hasn't been much better. C.J. Anderson's 12.2-point effort in Week 4 is the lowest by a lead rusher versus the Bucs, and Atlanta (???) in Week 1 is the only opponent thus far not to have one of its backs visit the end zone against the Bucs. The return of DT Gerald McCoy should help scale Tampa Bay's woes in this area back a little when he is fully healthy, but owners of Latavius Murray this week and Devonta Freeman (with Tevin Coleman expected to be out a bit with a hamstring injury) next week should be optimistic.

- For all the criticism the Dolphins faced in the weeks prior to Jay Ajayi's awakening, they have been better than expected defending running backs. Miami has surrendered only two total touchdowns to the position despite facing an average of 25.7 rushing attempts (and 30 touches) on a weekly basis. Only four backs have even reached double figures in fantasy points against them in PPR scoring, and two of them (Le'Veon Bell and Duke Johnson) needed at least five catches to help them get there.

- Remember all the years where it wasn’t a good thing to see the Steelers on the schedule? Well, times-are-a-changin'. Pittsburgh is getting eviscerated by running backs in the passing game (40 catches for 425 yards and three TDs) as well as on the ground (at least two rushing scores to the position in three of its last four contests). It's possible the Steelers' Week 8 bye will help them get some healthy bodies back, but owners of Terrance West (and possibly Kenneth Dixon) in Week 9 as well as Ezekiel Elliott in Week 10 have to be thrilled about what their backs might be able to do to Pittsburgh in its current state.

- So, it turns out Dallas' running game and vaunted offensive line is just that good. The Packers' only blemish against running backs this season came against Elliott & Co. T.J. Yeldon is the only back to score against Green Bay, which is holding runners to 3.2 YPC and has given up 48.6 percent of its PPR fantasy points to the position through the air. That means owners of Devonta Freeman this week, Frank Gore next week and DeMarco Murray in Week 10 could come away a bit disappointed.

- Despite their showings in primetime spots (C.J. Anderson in Week 1 and Jacquizz Rodgers in Week 5), the Panthers have otherwise been a fairly difficult matchup for running backs (3.4 YPC allowed to the position through six games). It makes sense given the quality of their front seven, but one would think DC Sean McDermott may begin to move his linebackers back a bit going forward in order to give some more help to his young secondary. It may not happen anytime soon, however, as the passing games of the Cardinals (Week 8), Rams (Week 9) and Chiefs (Week 10) may not strike a ton of fear into Carolina.

 Weekly Rank for Defenses vs. WRs
Team 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Avg Rank
1 Arizona Cardinals 10 13 31 11 20 20 22 18.1
2 Atlanta Falcons 18 15 10 12 10 29 7 14.4
3 Baltimore Ravens 32 10 11 3 16 2 9 11.9
4 Buffalo Bills 14 1 14 30 13 19 6 13.9
5 Carolina Panthers 30 22 32 1 11 3 - 16.5
6 Chicago Bears 8 30 14 24 5 21 1 14.7
7 Cincinnati Bengals 14 27 2 17 14 28 28 18.6
8 Cleveland Browns 5 14 3 29 21 8 4 12.0
9 Dallas Cowboys 12 18 20 21 8 10 - 14.8
10 Denver Broncos 20 32 22 27 28 30 27 26.6
11 Detroit Lions 7 29 5 7 12 5 20 12.1
12 Green Bay Packers 21 9 1 - 24 4 26 14.2
13 Houston Texans 13 31 26 23 4 26 16 19.9
14 Indianapolis Colts 24 19 19 15 6 27 25 19.3
15 Jacksonville Jaguars 11 2 22 14 - 11 12 12.0
16 Kansas City Chiefs 23 11 24 2 - 15 2 12.8
17 Los Angeles Rams 27 25 6 5 23 1 22 15.6
18 Miami Dolphins 16 8 9 8 17 9 12 11.3
19 Minnesota Vikings 25 22 25 28 22 - 24 24.3
20 New England Patriots 6 6 27 25 19 14 10 15.3
21 New Orleans Saints 4 12 18 16 - 11 15 12.7
22 New York Giants 28 16 4 19 3 18 8 13.7
23 New York Jets 3 5 27 26 1 13 17 13.1
24 Oakland Raiders 1 7 29 12 7 23 21 14.3
25 Philadelphia Eagles 26 21 17 - 18 16 17 19.2
26 Pittsburgh Steelers 19 25 21 10 9 25 29 19.7
27 San Diego Chargers 17 20 11 18 2 22 19 15.6
28 San Francisco 49ers 29 4 16 9 14 17 3 13.1
29 Seattle Seahawks 31 27 30 6 - 6 14 19.0
30 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 9 3 8 4 27 - 30 13.5
31 Tennessee Titans 22 17 13 20 26 7 11 16.6
32 Washington Redskins 2 24 7 22 25 24 5 15.6

The top-10 wide receivers through Week 7

1. Julio Jones
2. A.J. Green
3. Antonio Brown
4. T.Y. Hilton
5. Mike Evans
6. Larry Fitzgerald
7. Michael Crabtree
8. Marvin Jones
9. Odell Beckham Jr.
10. Jarvis Landry

Quick observations:

- It's easy to take a look at Tampa Bay over its last two contests and say DC Mike Smith is starting to get some solid production from his secondary, but it is notable the Bucs have faced Derek Anderson and Colin Kaepernick in those games. Prior to those outings, Tampa Bay had allowed double-figure fantasy-point totals to exactly two receivers in each of its first four games. As such, owners of Amari Cooper/Michael Crabtree (this week) and Julio Jones (next week) have relatively little to worry about.

- The Bills appear to be a difficult matchup for receivers in large part because they have been stingy in terms of giving up touchdowns to the position (four). In reality, only a Jacoby Brissett-led passing attack has really faltered against the Buffalo secondary. The Bills were shredded by the Jets in Week 2 and it could be argued Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker were the best receivers they have faced up to this point. Deep threats Torrey Smith and Kenny Stills each enjoyed their finest performance of the year against this defense over the last two weeks, so it wouldn't be a surprise if Chris Hogan (this week) or Jermaine Kearse/Tyler Lockett (next week) found similar success.

- While Miami may be sporting a better run defense than most might anticipate, the secondary is going to remain a work in progress. The Dolphins have ranked in the top half of most fantasy points allowed to receivers in six of seven weeks and don't have much in the way of talent on the back end of their defense to expect a drastic improvement. That's great news for Brandon Marshall next week (and again in Week 15), Tyrell Williams in Week 10 and Kenny Britt in Week 11.

- Are there cracks in the Seattle armor? That's a bit of a tough call to make at the moment, although there is reason to believe the Seahawks are vulnerable through the air. Each of their last three opponents have had two receivers score at least 10 points against them. While that is not an uncommon occurrence for defenses around the league, the volume of PPR fantasy points Seattle has surrendered over that time is rare, especially for "The Legion of Boom" (at least 39 to the Jets, Falcons and Cardinals).

- The Redskins have certainly improved over last season in terms of defending receivers, but the combination of Josh Norman and Bashaud Breeland has still been extremely hit-or-miss this season. Giving up big games to Antonio Brown and Odell Beckham Jr. is no crime, but three teams have accumulated more than 40 PPR fantasy points against the Washington secondary. In their other four games, the Redskins have given up an average of 24.7.

- Remember how the Chargers' secondary was supposed to fall apart after the loss of stud CB Jason Verrett? It hasn't happened … yet. Sure, Amari Cooper (25.8 PPR fantasy points) and Julio Jones (26.4) each went to town against San Diego, but those instances are forgivable. T.Y. Hilton, who actually got a huge chunk of his 31.4 points on a late 63-yard TD grab against the Bolts in Week 3, is the only other receiver to top 17.2 fantasy points.

 Weekly Rank for Defenses vs. TEs
Team 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Avg Rank
1 Arizona Cardinals 27 28 24 16 22 30 12 22.7
2 Atlanta Falcons 2 9 3 2 26 10 11 9.0
3 Baltimore Ravens 19 23 20 24 13 16 28 20.4
4 Buffalo Bills 16 32 29 7 19 24 28 22.1
5 Carolina Panthers 24 5 6 3 15 1 - 9.0
6 Chicago Bears 15 12 26 20 6 23 26 18.3
7 Cincinnati Bengals 31 3 8 28 16 2 7 13.6
8 Cleveland Browns 11 11 18 1 1 8 25 10.7
9 Dallas Cowboys 6 8 1 12 11 28 - 11.0
10 Denver Broncos 10 16 21 13 20 6 14 14.3
11 Detroit Lions 1 6 9 10 17 11 5 8.4
12 Green Bay Packers 3 13 12 - 14 18 15 12.5
13 Houston Texans 27 24 28 21 20 5 28 21.9
14 Indianapolis Colts 4 21 14 25 9 4 3 11.4
15 Jacksonville Jaguars 23 15 19 23 - 20 23 20.5
16 Kansas City Chiefs 19 31 31 7 - 19 13 20.0
17 Los Angeles Rams 7 20 2 29 9 29 26 17.4
18 Miami Dolphins 21 4 11 18 5 26 18 14.7
19 Minnesota Vikings 17 18 10 19 12 - 22 16.3
20 New England Patriots 18 10 17 13 8 24 17 15.3
21 New Orleans Saints 25 24 24 6 - 3 19 16.8
22 New York Giants 8 29 16 5 23 20 9 15.7
23 New York Jets 14 30 4 9 7 27 15 15.1
24 Oakland Raiders 29 1 15 22 2 17 4 12.9
25 Philadelphia Eagles 31 26 30 - 26 9 10 22.0
26 Pittsburgh Steelers 9 22 13 11 18 12 2 12.4
27 San Diego Chargers 5 7 7 26 26 15 6 13.1
28 San Francisco 49ers 26 2 5 17 25 13 20 15.4
29 Seattle Seahawks 29 17 23 30 - 7 8 19.0
30 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 12 27 31 26 3 - 21 20.0
31 Tennessee Titans 12 19 21 4 23 14 1 13.4
32 Washington Redskins 22 14 26 15 4 22 24 18.1

The top-eight tight ends through Week 7

1. Greg Olsen
2. Martellus Bennett
3. Zach Miller
4. Jack Doyle
5. Jordan Reed
6. Delanie Walker
7. Kyle Rudolph
8. Jimmy Graham

Quick observations:

- If Denver (in Week 5) was interested in throwing to its tight end, the Falcons and Lions would have completed a dubious clean sweep. With the exception of the Broncos a couple of weeks ago, every tight end group that has faced either Atlanta or Detroit has finished in the top 11 that week. The fact Cleveland and Carolina have somehow been worse at defending the position is almost mindboggling. It should go without saying if you want to load up at other positions and save at tight end, those are the four opponents you want to target.

- Every year, there seems to be a team or two that seems to avoid a stud at a certain position (it happens more at tight end than any other position due to the obvious lack of elite options at the position). The Redskins are one of those teams and it is reflected in their 20th-place ranking on the FF Today points allowed page (PPR scoring). A closer look reveals that ranking may not be reflective of how good they really are against tight ends, however. Gary Barnidge, Dennis Pitta and Jason Witten are the most notable players (sorry Zach Ertz) to face Washington and two of the three have topped 12 points. While all three are name-brand tight ends, none of them are anything more than low-end TE1s at the moment. That's kind of a big deal in the coming weeks as they face Tyler Eifert in London this week and return from a bye to square off against Kyle Rudolph in Week 10.

- Dallas' inability to shut down tight ends this season is baffling, especially when one considers S Byron Jones had a big hand in shutting the position down as a rookie. Zach Miller (27.8 PPR fantasy points in Week 3) is responsible for over a quarter of the production the Cowboys have allowed to tight ends, but Washington (22.1) and Cincinnati (15.2) have also posted totals that would have been unheard of last season.

- Once again, the Seahawks seem to be having issues - at least recently - with their communication on the back end. Atlanta (19.5) and Arizona (10.5) don't make it a habit to throw to their tight ends very often, yet Seattle has yielded a top-10 finish to the position in each of the last two weeks. When one considers the Seahawks have faced the Dolphins, Rams, 49ers and Jets, there may be reason to believe a tight end like Coby Fleener this week could be a savvy DFS pick. In Week 10, perhaps Rob Gronkowski and Martellus Bennett could have a field day.


Doug Orth has written for FF Today since 2006 and been featured in USA Today’s Fantasy Football Preview magazine since 2010. He hosted USA Today’s hour-long, pre-kickoff fantasy football internet chat every Sunday in 2012-13 and appears as a guest analyst on a number of national sports radio shows, including Sirius XM’s “Fantasy Drive”. Doug is also a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association.