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Top 225 Big Board, Non-PPR: Version 2.0


Preseason Matchup Analysis

By Doug Orth | 8/26/22 |
PPR | Half-PPR | Non-PPR | Superflex | FFPC

Allow me to reluctantly engage in a bit of a humble brag before we get into the heart of what I believe is the best draft-day tool around. (Yes, I am biased.) I have been playing in money leagues for more than 20 years and in high-stakes leagues ($1,000-plus entry) for over 10 years. I have played in those high-stakes leagues during the leanest of times, and I did so in part because I knew I had an advantage over my competition. Does it always result in a championship? Of course not. However, I win roughly one of every six leagues I enter and have never had a season in which I lost money. Does that mean it cannot happen? Of course not. With that said, I will stack my success (and the success of many of my readers) against anyone else's in the industry.

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Football is simple at its very core but a very complex game to evaluate and analyze because 11 men try to work in harmony approximately 60 times per game, while 11 other men make it their job to disrupt that harmony. Pro football is not pro basketball in that a team can clear out one side of the court when things break down and the offense can still score. Pro football is also not pro baseball in that one player can defeat a pitcher and eight fielders by timing his swing just right. Even as great as Barry Sanders was, he never beat a defense all by himself. In football, every player needs some help to accomplish his goal. That is part of what makes football so great and part of what makes it so highly unpredictable. The violence of the game - even by the tamer standards now - adds another element to the equation that is difficult to quantify.

Regardless, it does not mean we should not try. Over the last month, I have evaluated the weekly matchups for 500-plus players. Analyzing matchups alone requires me to make more than 8,000 "decisions". That is not a humble brag. Each year, my goal is to give those who put their faith in my evaluations the confidence they have the best draft-day tool at their disposal. Even if my grading process is only 70 percent accurate, that is still a significant advantage over any analyst that does not consider it at all. I like to believe that even if readers believe my process is flawed for whatever reason, they can appreciate how much thought goes into that opinion.

Fantasy football is a stock market game, and the job of an analyst is to identify when stocks are poised to skyrocket or ready to tank. While last year's results help fantasy managers/analysts set the table for the following season, they are merely a starting point. Fantasy rankings and drafting need to be predictive, not reactive. I have taken this approach for more than 15 years. While some of the processes have changed in that time, the main goal has not.

The Success Score Index (SSI) below is powered in large part by my target and carry predictions. As always, the matchup grades are included in the algorithm. SSI allows me to compare apples to oranges across positions. Perhaps just as importantly, I have been able to eliminate most of the guesswork across different scoring systems (PPR, standard, etc.).

For all of those unfamiliar with my Big Boards, allow me to explain the color-coding system before we start:

Red For lower-level players, a red matchup is the most difficult one a player can face. For a second- or third-tier player, drop your expectations for them at least one grade that week (i.e. from WR2 to WR3). For elite players, expect them to perform one level lower than their usual status (i.e. RB1 performs like an RB2).

Yellow For lower-level players, he is a borderline start at best. For a second- or third-tier player, the slight edge goes to the defense in what is essentially a toss-up. For the elite players, expect slightly better than average production.

White This one can go either way, but I favor the player over the matchup. Generally speaking, these matchups are winnable for all levels of players.

Green For non-elite players, the stage is set for a player to have a productive day. For the elite player, this matchup could produce special numbers.

Note: Players with a next to their name have some degree of injury/character/holdout concern. In addition, I have added distinct tiers for this final round of Big Boards (represented by the different colors in the "Pos" column).

Here is the scoring system that I used to rank the players in the Non-PPR format:

 Non-PPR Big Board - Top 225
Rk Pos Player Tm SSI 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
1 RB1 Christian McCaffrey CAR 7.65
2 RB2 Jonathan Taylor IND 7.50
3 RB3 Joe Mixon CIN 6.11
4 RB4 Dalvin Cook MIN 6.05
5 RB5 Saquon Barkley NYG 5.32
6 WR1 Justin Jefferson MIN 4.84
7 RB6 Derrick Henry TEN 4.17
8 RB7 Austin Ekeler LAC 4.16
9 RB8 D'Andre Swift DET 4.01
10 WR2 Cooper Kupp LAR 3.44
11 RB9 Najee Harris PIT 3.25
12 RB10 Nick Chubb CLE 3.17
13 QB1 Josh Allen BUF 2.77
14 RB11 Aaron Jones GB 2.47
15 WR3 CeeDee Lamb DAL 2.46
16 WR4 Ja'Marr Chase CIN 2.36
17 RB12 Alvin Kamara NO 2.23
18 RB13 Ezekiel Elliott DAL 2.19
19 RB14 Javonte Williams DEN 2.09
20 WR5 Davante Adams LV 1.61
21 WR6 Stefon Diggs BUF 1.42
22 RB15 Leonard Fournette TB 1.35
23 RB16 Breece Hall NYJ 0.81
24 RB17 AJ Dillon GB 0.81
25 TE1 Kyle Pitts ATL 0.68
26 QB2 Justin Herbert LAC 0.55
27 RB18 Elijah Mitchell SF 0.53
28 TE2 Travis Kelce KC 0.48
29 WR7 Mike Evans TB 0.43
30 RB19 Damien Harris NE 0.41
31 RB20 Travis Etienne JAC 0.41
32 WR8 Tee Higgins CIN 0.37
33 RB21 Cordarrelle Patterson ATL 0.12
34 RB22 J.K. Dobbins BAL 0.09
35 WR9 Tyreek Hill MIA 0.07
36 WR10 Michael Pittman Jr. IND 0.06
37 QB3 Jalen Hurts PHI 0.05
38 QB4 Kyler Murray ARI -0.02
39 QB5 Lamar Jackson BAL -0.05
40 WR11 Courtland Sutton DEN -0.06
41 WR12 A.J. Brown PHI -0.33
42 QB6 Patrick Mahomes KC -0.35
43 TE3 Mark Andrews BAL -0.37
44 QB7 Dak Prescott DAL -0.37
45 WR13 Deebo Samuel SF -0.40
46 WR14 Allen Robinson LAR -0.46
47 RB23 James Conner ARI -0.60
48 TE4 Darren Waller LV -0.63
49 RB24 Clyde Edwards-Helaire KC -0.63
50 WR15 Mike Williams LAC -0.84
51 QB8 Tom Brady TB -0.87
52 TE5 George Kittle SF -0.91
53 RB25 Dameon Pierce HOU -0.92
54 RB26 Rhamondre Stevenson NE -0.99
55 QB9 Joe Burrow CIN -1.08
56 QB10 Trey Lance SF -1.11
57 RB27 Chase Edmonds MIA -1.18
58 WR16 Terry McLaurin WAS -1.23
59 QB11 Russell Wilson DEN -1.33
60 QB12 Matthew Stafford LAR -1.35
61 QB13 Aaron Rodgers GB -1.36
62 WR17 D.J. Moore CAR -1.39
63 WR18 Michael Thomas NO -1.39
64 RB28 David Montgomery CHI -1.40
65 RB29 Melvin Gordon DEN -1.40
66 RB30 Josh Jacobs LV -1.40
67 RB31 Miles Sanders PHI -1.46
68 WR19 DK Metcalf SEA -1.50
69 WR20 Keenan Allen LAC -1.55
70 WR21 Jaylen Waddle MIA -1.57
71 WR22 Gabriel Davis BUF -1.63
72 WR23 Diontae Johnson PIT -1.70
73 RB32 Tony Pollard DAL -1.75
74 WR24 Brandin Cooks HOU -1.78
75 WR25 Brandon Aiyuk SF -1.92
76 RB33 Brian Robinson Jr. WAS -1.92
77 WR26 Marquise Brown ARI -1.93
78 RB34 Cam Akers LAR -1.97
79 WR27 Elijah Moore NYJ -2.01
80 RB35 Kareem Hunt CLE -2.02
81 RB36 Antonio Gibson WAS -2.06
82 TE6 Dallas Goedert PHI -2.07
83 TE7 T.J. Hockenson DET -2.14
84 WR28 Jerry Jeudy DEN -2.17
85 RB37 Michael Carter NYJ -2.20
86 QB14 Kirk Cousins MIN -2.21
87 WR29 DeVonta Smith PHI -2.26
88 WR30 Darnell Mooney CHI -2.28
89 WR31 Rashod Bateman BAL -2.31
90 WR32 Amon-Ra St. Brown DET -2.39
91 TE8 Dawson Knox BUF -2.55
92 WR33 Hunter Renfrow LV -2.59
93 RB38 Tyler Allgeier ATL -2.71
94 WR34 Allen Lazard GB -2.76
95 RB39 Nyheim Hines IND -2.78
96 TE9 Dalton Schultz DAL -2.82
97 WR35 Chris Godwin TB -2.85
98 WR36 Christian Kirk JAC -2.96
99 WR37 Adam Thielen MIN -3.00
100 RB40 James Robinson JAC -3.03
101 WR38 JuJu Smith-Schuster KC -3.10
102 RB41 Devin Singletary BUF -3.13
103 TE10 Zach Ertz ARI -3.18
104 WR39 Russell Gage TB -3.18
105 WR40 Kadarius Toney NYG -3.19
106 RB42 James Cook BUF -3.25
107 WR41 Drake London ATL -3.35
108 WR42 Tyler Lockett SEA -3.44
109 TE11 Cole Kmet CHI -3.49
110 WR43 Amari Cooper CLE -3.50
111 TE12 David Njoku CLE -3.50
112 TE13 Irv Smith MIN -3.59
113 WR44 Tyler Boyd CIN -3.59
114 QB15 Derek Carr LV -3.61
115 RB43 Kenneth Gainwell PHI -3.62
116 TE14 Pat Freiermuth PIT -3.71
117 TE15 Albert Okwuegbunam DEN -3.73
118 TE16 Austin Hooper TEN -3.75
119 TE17 Tyler Higbee LAR -3.81
120 WR45 Marvin Jones JAC -3.82
121 TE18 Brevin Jordan HOU -3.82
122 QB16 Trevor Lawrence JAC -3.85
123 WR46 Chris Olave NO -3.85
124 WR47 Robert Woods TEN -3.88
125 QB17 Daniel Jones NYG -3.92
126 TE19 Noah Fant SEA -3.95
127 WR48 DeAndre Hopkins ARI -3.96
128 RB44 Rashaad Penny SEA -3.97
129 WR49 Garrett Wilson NYJ -4.18
130 QB18 Tua Tagovailoa MIA -4.21
131 WR50 Jakobi Meyers NE -4.25
132 WR51 Nico Collins HOU -4.26
133 TE20 Evan Engram JAC -4.26
134 QB19 Justin Fields CHI -4.27
135 WR52 Chase Claypool PIT -4.28
136 RB45 Kenneth Walker SEA -4.29
137 WR53 DeVante Parker NE -4.31
138 RB46 Jamaal Williams DET -4.34
139 QB20 Matt Ryan IND -4.38
140 WR54 George Pickens PIT -4.42
141 TE21 Gerald Everett LAC -4.43
142 RB47 Rachaad White TB -4.53
143 QB21 Ryan Tannehill TEN -4.54
144 TE22 Hunter Henry NE -4.64
145 WR55 Romeo Doubs GB -4.67
146 RB48 Isaiah Spiller LAC -4.76
147 QB22 Mitchell Trubisky PIT -4.79
148 RB49 Alexander Mattison MIN -4.80
149 WR56 D.J. Chark DET -4.82
150 WR57 Treylon Burks TEN -4.83
151 WR58 Nelson Agholor NE -4.92
152 WR59 Jahan Dotson WAS -4.94
153 RB50 Gus Edwards BAL -5.02
154 TE23 Tyler Conklin NYJ -5.05
155 QB23 Jameis Winston NO -5.10
156 RB51 Khalil Herbert CHI -5.13
157 WR60 K.J. Osborn MIN -5.17
158 WR61 Marquez Valdes-Scantling KC -5.19
159 QB24 Mac Jones NE -5.20
160 WR62 Isaiah McKenzie BUF -5.23
161 WR63 Josh Palmer LAC -5.26
162 WR64 Rondale Moore ARI -5.26
163 RB52 Darrell Henderson LAR -5.33
164 WR65 Skyy Moore KC -5.37
165 WR66 Michael Gallup DAL -5.37
166 WR67 Julio Jones TB -5.44
167 WR68 Wan'Dale Robinson NYG -5.46
168 WR69 Kyle Phillips TEN -5.46
169 RB53 Zamir White LV -5.57
170 WR70 Jarvis Landry NO -5.57
171 WR71 Donovan Peoples-Jones CLE -5.61
172 TE24 Hayden Hurst CIN -5.63
173 RB54 Ameer Abdullah LV -5.71
174 RB55 Isiah Pacheco KC -5.72
175 TE25 Jonnu Smith NE -5.73
176 TE26 Mike Gesicki MIA -5.78
177 RB56 D'Onta Foreman CAR -5.79
178 WR72 Robbie Anderson CAR -5.82
179 WR73 Curtis Samuel WAS -5.98
180 QB25 Carson Wentz WAS -6.01
181 RB57 Chris Evans CIN -6.02
182 TE27 Isaiah Likely BAL -6.08
183 RB58 J.D. McKissic WAS -6.11
184 WR74 Van Jefferson LAR -6.17
185 RB59 Raheem Mostert MIA -6.36
186 RB60 Jeff Wilson SF -6.40
187 WR75 Velus Jones Jr. CHI -6.54
188 WR76 Parris Campbell IND -6.60
189 RB61 Sony Michel MIA -6.62
190 WR77 Mecole Hardman KC -6.64
191 RB62 Eno Benjamin ARI -6.74
192 WR78 Alec Pierce IND -6.81
193 WR79 Cedrick Wilson MIA -6.85
194 WR80 Jalen Tolbert DAL -6.87
195 WR81 Zay Jones JAC -6.94
196 WR82 Christian Watson GB -7.19
197 WR83 Kenny Golladay NYG -7.22
198 WR84 Sterling Shepard NYG -7.25
199 RB63 Mark Ingram NO -7.34
200 RB64 Hassan Haskins TEN -7.42
201 TE28 Greg Dulcich DEN -7.47
202 RB65 Dontrell Hilliard TEN -7.56
203 WR85 Bryan Edwards ATL -7.69
204 TE29 Robert Tonyan GB -7.70
205 WR86 Byron Pringle CHI -7.71
206 RB66 Zack Moss BUF -7.73
207 TE30 Logan Thomas WAS -7.75
208 WR87 David Bell CLE -7.85
209 WR88 Randall Cobb GB -7.90
210 TE31 Taysom Hill NO -7.93
211 WR89 KJ Hamler DEN -8.14
212 WR90 Corey Davis NYJ -8.15
213 WR91 Mack Hollins LV -8.18
214 RB67 Jaylen Warren PIT -8.31
215 WR92 Jameson Williams DET -8.34
216 WR93 Sammy Watkins GB -8.70
217 WR94 Devin Duvernay BAL -8.83
218 RB68 Chuba Hubbard CAR -9.00
219 RB69 Ty Montgomery NE -9.25
220 WR95 Khalil Shakir BUF -9.28
221 WR96 Rashard Higgins CAR -9.88
222 RB70 D'Ernest Johnson CLE -10.43
223 RB71 Marlon Mack HOU -11.02
224 RB72 Jerick McKinnon KC -12.61
225 RB73 Tyrion Davis-Price SF -12.75


PPR | Half-PPR | Non-PPR | Superflex | FFPC





Doug Orth has written for FF Today since 2006 and been featured in USA TODAY's Fantasy Football Preview magazine since 2010. He is also a high-stakes player who often appears as a guest analyst on a number of national sports radio shows, such as Sirius XM's "Fantasy Drive." Doug is also a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association.