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Projections & Rankings Update – 6/19/14


By: — June 20, 2014 @ 2:05 am
Filed under: Forecast

Player Projections, Rankings & Cheatsheets
Change Log – 6/19/14

Just a mild update as teams wrap up mini-camp and players head off to parts unknown for a few weeks.

Quarterbacks

  • Ben Roethlisberger (+3) – Up-tempo offense used down the stretch last season expected to be used more in 2014.
  • Derek Carr (#45) – Inserted into the rankings as he’s already passed McGloin for the #2 QB spot in Oakland.

Running Backs

  • Marshawn Lynch (-5) – Slight bump down for Mr. Skittles. Not so much for his contract squabble, but on the expectation that Christine Michael will eat some of his carries.
  • Christine Michael (+17) – See above. His upside is a classic case of why you don’t simply place rank numbers next to a group of players projected stats and call them “rankings”.

Wide Receivers

  • Percy Harvin (+3) – Corrected a mistake in Seahawks passing projections. Harvin was missing a receiving TD.
  • DeSean Jackson (-5) – Changed my thinking on the distribution between Garcon and DJax. Expect Djax to be more of decoy than he was last season, opening the field for Garcon and TE Reed.
  • Reggie Wayne (+20) – I’m skeptical Wayne (ACL) will make enough of a recovery to be a WR2 this season however, head coach says he expects Wayne to be ready for training camp. We’ll see.

Tight Ends

  • Antonio Gates (-2) – Slight bump down for the ole’ timer. He’s keeping Green from being a TE1.
  • Zach Miller (+3) – Miller was missing a receiving TD from my initial projections.

Projections & Rankings Released – 6/4/14


By: — June 5, 2014 @ 9:16 am
Filed under: Forecast

Player Projections, Rankings & Cheatsheets
Change Log – 6/4/14

Here we go! It’s a special time when the rankings hit the site for a new season. Our initial release for 2014 has over 400 offensive players and 345 defensive players projected and ranked. Sporadic updates will occur in June with weekly updates kicking off in July when as we roll towards the meat of the fantasy season. We’ll also do unscheduled updates as needed, typically for significant injuries or news that occurs between scheduled updates.

Quarterbacks

  • Matt Ryan (#7) – I’m looking for a bounce-back season for Ryan and the Falcons passing game as they move towards a base three-wide receiver set without Tony G.
  • Nick Foles (#4) – I get the impression Foles may be a hot button topic with fantasy owners this pre-season. Can he repeat his gaudy numbers from a year ago? I tend to think he can but Jeremy Maclin needs to stay healthy.
  • Tony Romo (#15) – Everyone expects new passing game coordinator Scott Linehan to air it out on every play. He’s already made comments about leaning on DeMarco Murray and the running game. I’m going to keep Romo (back) a bit lower than most for now until he proves he’s healthy while I formulate a more solid opinion on where this offense is headed in 2014.

Running Backs

  • Marshawn Lynch (#6) – No sooner than I get my rankings posted, it’s revealed that the Seahawks are leaning toward a RBBC with Lynch and Christine Michael. Sigh. Lynch will be moving down into RB2 territory in our next update.
  • Toby Gerhart (#10) – I realize the Jags have issues at Quarterback and have lost one their best receivers, but Gerhart is in line for 300+ touches this season. His current ADP of 5.01 is too low.
  • Arian Foster (#11) – Foster is reportedly in for a heavy workload this season under head coach Bill O’ Brien. Can he hold up?
  • C.J. Spiller (#24) – This is likely Fred Jackson’s last season in Buffalo. Spiller is shaping up as a boom or bust RB in 2014.

Wide Receivers

  • Calvin Johnson (#2) – I can’t remember the last time Megatron didn’t start the season #1. With Decker moving on, Demaryius Thomas (#1) is in for a huge season.
  • Percy Harvin (#12) – Harvin falls into the same boom/bust category as Spiller. It all depends on your tolerance for risk.
  • Andre Johnson (#25) – The disgruntled Johnson wants out of Houston and who can blame him? He’s a pro and will likely have a decent year, but we may see the beginning of the end this season for AJ.
  • Eric Decker (#38) – He becomes a #1 wide receiver on of the handful of teams that runs it more than they throw it. He’s a WR3 at best.
  • Reggie Wayne (#90) – He’ll move up in subsequent updates as long as he has no setbacks in his recovery from knee surgery. Still, even if he starts Week 1, I’m not expecting a WR1 season from the 35 year-old Wayne.

Tight Ends

  • Julius Thomas (#2) – With Decker moving on, Julius Thomas is in for a huge season. I won’t be surprised if he overtakes Jimmy Graham as the #1 fantasy TE by season’s end.
  • Vernon Davis (#3) – Davis is skipping OTAs and likely won’t be at the June mandatory minicamp.
  • Kyle Rudolph (#7) – Norv Turner has a history of feeding the tight end.
  • Ladarius Green (#19) – I pegged Jordan Cameron as my TE sleeper a year ago and would do the same for Green if Antonio Gates wasn’t in the mix… but he is.

Projections & Rankings Update – 9/3/13


By: — September 3, 2013 @ 9:02 am
Filed under: Forecast

Player Projections, Rankings & Cheatsheets
Change Log – 9/3/13

Quarterbacks

Running Backs

Wide Receivers

Tight Ends

  • Zach Sudfeld (+3) – Should have value even when Gronk returns.
  • Julius Thomas (+8) – Will start in Denver but will be the fourth option behind three standout receivers.

Projections & Rankings Update – 8/29/13


By: — August 29, 2013 @ 12:09 am
Filed under: Forecast

Player Projections, Rankings & Cheatsheets
Change Log – 8/29/13

Quarterbacks

  • Michael Vick (+2) – Named the starter but too much of an injury risk for a QB1.
  • Terrelle Pryor (+20) – A good showing on Thursday will land him the starting job.
  • Matt Flynn (-15) – The Raiders are going to have serious issues all year.

Running Backs

  • Eddie Lacy (+2) – Gets a slight bump with season-ending injury to DuJuan Harris.
  • DeAngelo Williams (+2) – JStew is out the first six weeks of the season.
  • Chris Ivory (Tier 5) – Slid him down from Tier 4 to Tier. Rank # stayed the same.
  • Roy Helu (+6) – Has established himself as the clear backup to Morris.
  • Giovani Bernard (+3) – Should edge out TheLawFirm in fantasy points by season’s end.
  • Jonathan Stewart (-17) – Bad ankles have landed him on the PUP list and out the first six weeks.

Wide Receivers

  • Brandon Marshall (-1) – A slight bump down for what’s likely a diva moment for Marshall. His hip is fine.
  • Lance Moore (Tier 6) – Rank # stayed the same, just a better fit in Tier 6 than Tier 5.
  • James Jones (Tier 6) – Rank # stayed the same, just a better fit in Tier 6 than Tier 5.
  • Kenbrell Thompkins (+5) – Looking like the starter opposite Amendola but his value is over-hyped.

Tight Ends

  • Jermichael Finley (+1) – We’ll see if Finley can keep the momentum going into the regular season.
  • Robert Housler (-8) – High ankle sprain has derailed his fantasy value.
  • Heath Miller (+5) – Tomlin hinted that Miller might avoid the PUP list.
  • Tony Moeaki (dropped) – Chiefs TE suffered a fractured shoulder.

Projections & Rankings Update – 8/22/13


By: — August 22, 2013 @ 1:01 am
Filed under: Forecast

Player Projections, Rankings & Cheatsheets
Change Log – 8/22/13

Quarterbacks

  • Michael Vick (+6) – Named the starter but too much of an injury risk for a QB1.
  • Geno Smith (+12) – He may start but your fantasy team shouldn’t care. Stay away.

Running Backs

  • Arian Foster (-6) – Foster returns to practice and I move him down. Go figure. He’s still a bottom of Round 1 RB.
  • DeAngelo Williams (+3) – With Stewart still battling his ankles, Williams could be a nice flex play.
  • Monte Ball (-7) – Hillman isn’t going anywhere.
  • Le’Veon Bell (-36) – This one hurts. I’ve been high on him since early June and was happy to draft him as my RB2… not anymore. A foot injury will cause him to miss at least 6 weeks.
  • Isaac Redman (+11) – May be the lead back in a RBBC with Dwyer but this is a situation to avoid.

Wide Receivers

  • Julio Jones (+1) – A slight bump for Jones as I re-organize his and White’s numbers.
  • Lance Moore (-5) – Distributed some of Moore’s yardage to Stills and Sproles.
  • Brian Hartline (+4) – A very unsexy pick, but should benefit most from the loss of TE Keller.

Tight Ends

  • Dustin Keller (dropped) – Ugly knee injury for the Dolphins TE.
  • Rob Gronkowski (no change) – Still ranked at #2 but took away 100 yards and 1 TD. It doesn’t appear he will be ready for Week 1.
  • Zach Sudfeld (+9) – Any Patriots’ TE running with the first team deserves a bump.
  • Vernon Davis (+2) – It will be an upset id Davis isn’t 2nd on the team in receiving this season.
  • Fred Davis (+4) – I continue to be bullish on Fred. A sneaky TE1 in the making.

Projections & Rankings Update – 8/15/13


By: — August 15, 2013 @ 1:38 am
Filed under: Forecast

Player Projections, Rankings & Cheatsheets
Change Log – 8/15/13

Quarterbacks

  • Robert Griffin III (+2) – No setbacks. However, we won’t see him in any preseason games.
  • Carson Palmer (+3) – I like the weapons at Palmer’s disposal but can he stay on the field?

Running Backs

  • DeAngelo Williams (+5) – This move upward has more to do with Jonathan Stewart (ankles) than Williams.
  • Jonathan Stewart (-5) – Coach thinks Stewart will be ready for Week 1 but given Stewart’s injury history, the risk is becoming too great.
  • Christine Michael (+3) – It’s still unclear who will backup Lynch but this kid has skills.
  • Roy Helu (+3) – Starting to establish himself as the clear backup to Alfred.
  • Montario Hardesty (-26) – Scheduled for a knee scope today.

Wide Receivers

  • Mike Wallace (-4) – Is Tannehill going to have time to get this speedster the ball?
  • Kenny Britt (+5) – An upside bump, but injury history is a huge concern.
  • Rueben Randle (+3) – Good upside pick late in your draft.

Tight Ends

  • Coby Fleener (+3) – Concussion concerns are gone for the time being. Making his mark with Dwayne Allen (foot) out.
  • Ed Dickson (-3) – Just when you thought Dickson might have some value, he pulls up lame with a hamstring injury.
  • Zach Sudfeld (+1) – Any Patriots’ TE running with the first team deserves a bump.

Projections & Rankings Update – 8/8/13


By: — August 8, 2013 @ 2:45 am
Filed under: Forecast

Player Projections, Rankings & Cheatsheets
Change Log – 8/8/13

Quarterbacks

Running Backs

  • Arian Foster (-1) – A little nitpicky here, as I dropped 1 TD of his total.
  • Daryl Richardson (+1) – A nice vote of confidence from his head coach this week but I already had him pegged as the leader of the Rams RBBC.
  • Shane Vereen (+1) – His ADP (6.03) is on the rise.
  • Mikel Leshoure (-3) – He’s losing the battle for the No. 2 RB job.
  • Christine Michael (+20) – Michael has benefited from Turbin (foot) being on the sidelines.
  • Ryan Williams (-5) – Can’t shake his knee injury.

Wide Receivers

  • Jordy Nelson (-1) – Knee is a concern, but no reason to drop him significantly at this time.
  • Steve Johnson (-4) – A Hamstring injury and a questionable QB situation doesn’t inspire confidence.
  • Vincent Brown (+41) – Brown has a golden opportunity but needs to shake his hamstring injury.

Tight Ends

  • Tyler Eifert (+9) – With no proven performer opposite A.J. Green, Eifert could be utilized sooner rather than later.



Projections & Rankings Update – 8/1/13


By: — August 1, 2013 @ 10:43 am
Filed under: Forecast

Player Projections, Rankings & Cheatsheets
Change Log – 8/1/13

Quarterbacks

  • Alex Smith (+1) – Andy Reid likes to throw but I anticipate some first-year struggles for Smith and a sub par receiving corps.

Running Backs

Wide Receivers

Tight Ends

  • Vernon Davis (No rank change) – Moved Davis up into Tier 2.
  • Fred Davis (+5) – Looking good as he recovers from Achilles injury.

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