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Top 200 Big Board FFPC High-Stakes League: V 1.0


Preseason Matchup Analysis

By Doug Orth | 8/20/22 |
PPR | Half-PPR | Non-PPR | Superflex | FFPC

Football is simple at its very core but a very complex game to evaluate and analyze because 11 men try to work in harmony approximately 60 times per game, while 11 other men make it their job to disrupt that harmony. Pro football is not pro basketball in that a team can clear out one side of the court when things break down and the offense can still score. Pro football is also not pro baseball in that one player can defeat a pitcher and eight fielders by timing his swing just right. Even as great as Barry Sanders was, he never beat a defense all by himself. In football, every player needs some help to accomplish his goal. That is part of what makes football so great and part of what makes it so highly unpredictable. The violence of the game - even by the tamer standards now - adds another element to the equation that is difficult to quantify.

Regardless, it does not mean we should not try. Over the last month, I have evaluated the weekly matchups for 500-plus players. Analyzing matchups alone requires me to make more than 8,000 "decisions". That is not a humble brag. Each year, my goal is to give those who put their faith in my evaluations the confidence they have the best draft-day tool at their disposal. Even if my grading process is only 70 percent accurate, that is still a significant advantage over any analyst that does not consider it at all. I like to believe that even if readers believe my process is flawed for whatever reason, they can appreciate how much thought goes into that opinion.

Fantasy football is a stock market game, and the job of an analyst is to identify when stocks are poised to skyrocket or ready to tank. While last year's results help fantasy managers/analysts set the table for the following season, they are merely a starting point. Fantasy rankings and drafting need to be predictive, not reactive. I have taken this approach for more than 15 years. While some of the processes have changed in that time, the main goal has not.

The Success Score Index (SSI) below is powered in large part by my target and carry predictions. As always, the matchup grades are included in the algorithm. SSI allows me to compare apples to oranges across positions. Perhaps just as importantly, I have been able to eliminate most of the guesswork across different scoring systems (PPR, standard, etc.).

For all of those unfamiliar with my Big Boards, allow me to explain the color-coding system before we start:

Red For lower-level players, a red matchup is the most difficult one a player can face. For a second- or third-tier player, drop your expectations for them at least one grade that week (i.e. from WR2 to WR3). For elite players, expect them to perform one level lower than their usual status (i.e. RB1 performs like an RB2).

Yellow For lower-level players, he is a borderline start at best. For a second- or third-tier player, the slight edge goes to the defense in what is essentially a toss-up. For the elite players, expect slightly better than average production.

White This one can go either way, but I favor the player over the matchup. Generally speaking, these matchups are winnable for all levels of players.

Green For non-elite players, the stage is set for a player to have a productive day. For the elite player, this matchup could produce special numbers.

Note: Players with a next to their name have some degree of injury/character/holdout concern.

Over the next two weeks, I will release my second and final round of Big Boards. I will rank at least 225 players and present my final rankings for kickers and defense/special teams.

Here is the scoring system that I used to rank the players in the FFPC format:

 FFPC Big Board - Top 200
Rk Pos Player Tm SSI 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
1 RB1 Christian McCaffrey CAR 10.99
2 RB2 Jonathan Taylor IND 7.48
3 WR1 Justin Jefferson MIN 7.34
4 RB3 Dalvin Cook MIN 7.16
5 RB4 Saquon Barkley NYG 7.05
6 RB5 D'Andre Swift DET 6.89
7 RB6 Joe Mixon CIN 5.96
8 RB7 Austin Ekeler LAC 5.83
9 TE1 Travis Kelce KC 5.50
10 WR2 Cooper Kupp LAR 5.36
11 RB8 Aaron Jones GB 4.59
12 RB9 Najee Harris PIT 4.30
13 WR3 CeeDee Lamb DAL 3.88
14 TE2 Kyle Pitts ATL 3.18
15 WR4 Ja'Marr Chase CIN 2.90
16 RB10 Derrick Henry TEN 2.78
17 TE3 Darren Waller LV 2.70
18 WR5 Davante Adams LV 2.67
19 RB11 Travis Etienne JAC 2.51
20 RB12 Leonard Fournette TB 2.08
21 RB13 Alvin Kamara NO 2.06
22 RB14 Ezekiel Elliott DAL 1.93
23 WR6 Stefon Diggs BUF 1.86
24 RB15 Breece Hall NYJ 1.85
25 RB16 Javonte Williams DEN 1.80
26 TE4 Mark Andrews BAL 1.70
27 QB1 Josh Allen BUF 1.66
28 RB17 Nick Chubb CLE 1.57
29 TE5 George Kittle SF 1.24
30 WR7 Michael Pittman Jr. IND 0.64
31 WR8 Tyreek Hill MIA 0.54
32 WR9 Tee Higgins CIN 0.53
33 RB18 Clyde Edwards-Helaire KC 0.51
34 TE6 T.J. Hockenson DET 0.34
35 WR10 Mike Evans TB 0.31
36 RB19 Cordarrelle Patterson ATL 0.27
37 WR11 Allen Robinson LAR 0.03
38 WR12 A.J. Brown PHI 0.00
39 WR13 Courtland Sutton DEN -0.08
40 RB20 AJ Dillon GB -0.39
41 RB21 J.K. Dobbins BAL -0.40
42 TE7 Dallas Goedert PHI -0.68
43 RB22 Elijah Mitchell SF -0.73
44 RB23 David Montgomery CHI -0.92
45 WR14 Deebo Samuel SF -0.94
46 WR15 Terry McLaurin WAS -0.98
47 TE8 Zach Ertz ARI -1.00
48 WR16 Keenan Allen LAC -1.06
49 RB24 Chase Edmonds MIA -1.12
50 QB2 Justin Herbert LAC -1.18
51 WR17 Brandin Cooks HOU -1.20
52 WR18 Mike Williams LAC -1.28
53 QB3 Patrick Mahomes KC -1.30
54 WR19 D.J. Moore CAR -1.32
55 WR20 Jaylen Waddle MIA -1.37
56 WR21 Diontae Johnson PIT -1.38
57 WR22 Jerry Jeudy DEN -1.45
58 RB25 Tony Pollard DAL -1.50
59 RB26 Rhamondre Stevenson NE -1.66
60 QB4 Jalen Hurts PHI -1.74
61 QB5 Lamar Jackson BAL -1.80
62 WR23 Michael Thomas NO -1.86
63 RB27 Damien Harris NE -1.90
64 QB6 Kyler Murray ARI -1.92
65 WR24 DK Metcalf SEA -2.07
66 WR25 Elijah Moore NYJ -2.08
67 RB28 James Conner ARI -2.10
68 WR26 Hunter Renfrow LV -2.11
69 RB29 Miles Sanders PHI -2.26
70 TE9 Cole Kmet CHI -2.26
71 RB30 James Cook BUF -2.42
72 RB31 Josh Jacobs LV -2.44
73 TE10 Dalton Schultz DAL -2.45
74 TE11 Pat Freiermuth PIT -2.46
75 WR27 Rashod Bateman BAL -2.49
76 RB32 Nyheim Hines IND -2.54
77 WR28 Amon-Ra St. Brown DET -2.55
78 TE12 Albert Okwuegbunam DEN -2.57
79 RB33 Melvin Gordon DEN -2.62
80 QB7 Trey Lance SF -2.67
81 QB8 Dak Prescott DAL -2.67
82 RB34 Antonio Gibson WAS -2.68
83 WR29 Darnell Mooney CHI -2.68
84 WR30 DeVonta Smith PHI -2.74
85 TE13 Irv Smith MIN -2.74
86 WR31 Marquise Brown ARI -2.74
87 TE14 Tyler Higbee LAR -2.78
88 QB9 Joe Burrow CIN -2.82
89 QB10 Tom Brady TB -2.82
90 QB11 Russell Wilson DEN -2.88
91 TE15 Dawson Knox BUF -2.97
92 TE16 Evan Engram JAC -2.98
93 RB35 Kareem Hunt CLE -2.99
94 TE17 Austin Hooper TEN -3.15
95 WR32 Adam Thielen MIN -3.15
96 QB12 Matthew Stafford LAR -3.16
97 WR33 Gabriel Davis BUF -3.36
98 WR34 Allen Lazard GB -3.38
99 TE18 David Njoku CLE -3.44
100 WR35 Kadarius Toney NYG -3.46
101 WR36 Russell Gage TB -3.53
102 RB36 Kenneth Gainwell PHI -3.55
103 TE19 Brevin Jordan HOU -3.65
104 TE20 Noah Fant SEA -3.68
105 QB13 Aaron Rodgers GB -3.76
106 RB37 Tyler Allgeier ATL -3.83
107 WR37 Brandon Aiyuk SF -3.96
108 WR38 Chris Godwin TB -4.00
109 QB14 Kirk Cousins MIN -4.04
110 WR39 Tyler Boyd CIN -4.11
111 WR40 Drake London ATL -4.12
112 RB38 Cam Akers LAR -4.15
113 WR41 JuJu Smith-Schuster KC -4.25
114 WR42 Tyler Lockett SEA -4.27
115 WR43 Christian Kirk JAC -4.33
116 TE21 Gerald Everett LAC -4.47
117 WR44 Marvin Jones JAC -4.51
118 RB39 Devin Singletary BUF -4.60
119 RB40 Dameon Pierce HOU -4.64
120 WR45 DeAndre Hopkins ARI -4.64
121 WR46 Amari Cooper CLE -4.69
122 RB41 James Robinson JAC -4.69
123 RB42 Rachaad White TB -4.73
124 RB43 Kenneth Walker SEA -4.87
125 WR47 DeVante Parker NE -4.90
126 WR48 Chris Olave NO -4.90
127 RB44 Jamaal Williams DET -4.91
128 WR49 Robert Woods TEN -4.97
129 WR50 Treylon Burks TEN -5.05
130 TE22 Hunter Henry NE -5.15
131 WR51 Nico Collins HOU -5.25
132 RB45 Michael Carter NYJ -5.27
133 QB15 Derek Carr LV -5.29
134 RB46 Isaiah Spiller LAC -5.29
135 WR52 Garrett Wilson NYJ -5.35
136 WR53 Skyy Moore KC -5.43
137 QB16 Trevor Lawrence JAC -5.63
138 WR54 Rondale Moore ARI -5.83
139 RB47 J.D. McKissic WAS -5.85
140 QB17 Daniel Jones NYG -5.86
141 RB48 Eno Benjamin ARI -5.97
142 TE23 Mike Gesicki MIA -6.10
143 WR55 Chase Claypool PIT -6.16
144 QB18 Justin Fields CHI -6.18
145 QB19 Matt Ryan IND -6.21
146 QB20 Tua Tagovailoa MIA -6.35
147 RB49 Brian Robinson Jr. WAS -6.37
148 RB50 Darrell Henderson LAR -6.37
149 WR56 Isaiah McKenzie BUF -6.38
150 TE24 Tyler Conklin NYJ -6.42
151 WR57 Jahan Dotson WAS -6.47
152 RB51 Khalil Herbert CHI -6.54
153 QB21 Ryan Tannehill TEN -6.55
154 TE25 Jonnu Smith NE -6.57
155 WR58 Romeo Doubs GB -6.65
156 TE26 Hayden Hurst CIN -6.67
157 RB52 Chris Evans CIN -6.67
158 TE27 Daniel Bellinger NYG -6.68
159 QB22 Mitchell Trubisky PIT -6.76
160 WR59 George Pickens PIT -6.79
161 WR60 Wan'Dale Robinson NYG -6.80
162 QB23 Jameis Winston NO -6.80
163 WR61 Jakobi Meyers NE -6.90
164 WR62 Julio Jones TB -6.94
165 WR63 Jarvis Landry NO -7.02
166 WR64 K.J. Osborn MIN -7.02
167 RB53 Isiah Pacheco KC -7.05
168 WR65 D.J. Chark DET -7.13
169 RB54 Alexander Mattison MIN -7.15
170 QB24 Mac Jones NE -7.23
171 RB55 Ameer Abdullah LV -7.24
172 WR66 Parris Campbell IND -7.42
173 WR68 Marquez Valdes-Scantling KC -7.53
174 RB56 Gus Edwards BAL -7.53
175 WR69 Josh Palmer LAC -7.64
176 RB57 Rashaad Penny SEA -7.64
177 WR70 Curtis Samuel WAS -7.66
178 WR71 Robbie Anderson CAR -7.69
179 RB58 D'Onta Foreman CAR -7.82
180 RB59 Ty Montgomery NE -7.95
181 TE28 Robert Tonyan GB -8.15
182 WR73 Kenny Golladay NYG -8.37
183 TE29 Harrison Bryant CLE -8.42
184 WR74 Michael Gallup DAL -8.51
185 TE30 Logan Thomas WAS -8.53
186 RB60 Sony Michel MIA -8.59
187 RB61 Raheem Mostert MIA -8.62
188 RB62 Zamir White LV -8.63
189 WR75 Velus Jones Jr. CHI -8.65
190 WR78 Mecole Hardman KC -9.09
191 TE31 Isaiah Likely BAL -9.11
192 RB64 Mark Ingram NO -9.25
193 WR79 Jalen Tolbert DAL -9.49
194 WR80 Alec Pierce IND -9.59
195 WR81 Zay Jones JAC -9.60
196 WR82 Kyle Phillips TEN -9.68
197 TE32 Greg Dulcich DEN -10.11
198 WR88 Christian Watson GB -10.32
199 WR90 Jameson Williams DET -10.49
200 TE33 Cameron Brate TB -10.54


PPR | Half-PPR | Non-PPR | Superflex | FFPC



Doug Orth has written for FF Today since 2006 and been featured in USA TODAY's Fantasy Football Preview magazine since 2010. He is also a high-stakes player who often appears as a guest analyst on a number of national sports radio shows, such as Sirius XM's "Fantasy Drive." Doug is also a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association.