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Top 200 Big Board, Non-PPR: Version 1.0


Preseason Matchup Analysis

By Doug Orth | 8/19/22 |
PPR | Half-PPR | Non-PPR | Superflex | FFPC

Football is simple at its very core but a very complex game to evaluate and analyze because 11 men try to work in harmony approximately 60 times per game, while 11 other men make it their job to disrupt that harmony. Pro football is not pro basketball in that a team can clear out one side of the court when things break down and the offense can still score. Pro football is also not pro baseball in that one player can defeat a pitcher and eight fielders by timing his swing just right. Even as great as Barry Sanders was, he never beat a defense all by himself. In football, every player needs some help to accomplish his goal. That is part of what makes football so great and part of what makes it so highly unpredictable. The violence of the game - even by the tamer standards now - adds another element to the equation that is difficult to quantify.

Regardless, it does not mean we should not try. Over the last month, I have evaluated the weekly matchups for 500-plus players. Analyzing matchups alone requires me to make more than 8,000 "decisions". That is not a humble brag. Each year, my goal is to give those who put their faith in my evaluations the confidence they have the best draft-day tool at their disposal. Even if my grading process is only 70 percent accurate, that is still a significant advantage over any analyst that does not consider it at all. I like to believe that even if readers believe my process is flawed for whatever reason, they can appreciate how much thought goes into that opinion.

Fantasy football is a stock market game, and the job of an analyst is to identify when stocks are poised to skyrocket or ready to tank. While last year's results help fantasy managers/analysts set the table for the following season, they are merely a starting point. Fantasy rankings and drafting need to be predictive, not reactive. I have taken this approach for more than 15 years. While some of the processes have changed in that time, the main goal has not.

The Success Score Index (SSI) below is powered in large part by my target and carry predictions. As always, the matchup grades are included in the algorithm. SSI allows me to compare apples to oranges across positions. Perhaps just as importantly, I have been able to eliminate most of the guesswork across different scoring systems (PPR, standard, etc.).

For all of those unfamiliar with my Big Boards, allow me to explain the color-coding system before we start:

Red For lower-level players, a red matchup is the most difficult one a player can face. For a second- or third-tier player, drop your expectations for them at least one grade that week (i.e. from WR2 to WR3). For elite players, expect them to perform one level lower than their usual status (i.e. RB1 performs like an RB2).

Yellow For lower-level players, he is a borderline start at best. For a second- or third-tier player, the slight edge goes to the defense in what is essentially a toss-up. For the elite players, expect slightly better than average production.

White This one can go either way, but I favor the player over the matchup. Generally speaking, these matchups are winnable for all levels of players.

Green For non-elite players, the stage is set for a player to have a productive day. For the elite player, this matchup could produce special numbers.

Note: Players with a next to their name have some degree of injury/character/holdout concern.

Over the next couple of days, I will release my first Big Boards for 0.5 PPR and FFPC leagues. In the second and final round of Big Boards near the end of the preseason, I will rank at least 225 players and present my final rankings for kickers and defense/special teams
.

Here is the scoring system that I used to rank the players in the Non-PPR format:

 Non-PPR Big Board - Top 200
Rk Pos Player Tm SSI 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
1 RB1 Jonathan Taylor IND 7.69
2 RB2 Christian McCaffrey CAR 7.65
3 RB3 Joe Mixon CIN 6.48
4 RB4 Dalvin Cook MIN 6.05
5 RB5 Saquon Barkley NYG 5.32
6 WR1 Justin Jefferson MIN 4.84
7 RB6 D'Andre Swift DET 4.37
8 RB7 Austin Ekeler LAC 4.10
9 RB8 Derrick Henry TEN 3.75
10 WR2 Cooper Kupp LAR 3.44
11 QB1 Josh Allen BUF 3.34
12 RB9 Najee Harris PIT 3.25
13 RB10 Aaron Jones GB 3.23
14 RB11 Nick Chubb CLE 3.17
15 RB12 Ezekiel Elliott DAL 2.70
16 WR3 Ja'Marr Chase CIN 2.62
17 WR4 CeeDee Lamb DAL 2.52
18 RB13 Breece Hall NYJ 2.41
19 RB14 Javonte Williams DEN 2.32
20 TE1 Travis Kelce KC 1.75
21 WR5 Davante Adams LV 1.70
22 RB15 Leonard Fournette TB 1.32
23 RB16 Travis Etienne JAC 1.26
24 RB17 J.K. Dobbins BAL 1.25
25 RB18 Alvin Kamara NO 1.06
26 QB2 Justin Herbert LAC 0.69
27 TE2 Kyle Pitts ATL 0.68
28 WR6 Stefon Diggs BUF 0.68
29 RB19 Elijah Mitchell SF 0.49
30 RB20 Damien Harris NE 0.47
31 WR7 Mike Evans TB 0.43
32 QB3 Patrick Mahomes KC 0.43
33 WR8 Tee Higgins CIN 0.29
34 WR9 Tyreek Hill MIA 0.16
35 WR10 Michael Pittman Jr. IND 0.06
36 QB4 Jalen Hurts PHI 0.05
37 QB5 Lamar Jackson BAL 0.02
38 RB21 AJ Dillon GB 0.00
39 WR11 Courtland Sutton DEN 0.00
40 RB22 Clyde Edwards-Helaire KC 0.00
41 QB6 Kyler Murray ARI -0.17
42 TE3 Darren Waller LV -0.25
43 RB23 Cordarrelle Patterson ATL -0.26
44 WR12 A.J. Brown PHI -0.33
45 TE4 Mark Andrews BAL -0.37
46 WR13 Deebo Samuel SF -0.40
47 WR14 Allen Robinson LAR -0.46
48 RB24 David Montgomery CHI -0.48
49 RB25 Rhamondre Stevenson NE -0.53
50 RB26 Miles Sanders PHI -0.66
51 QB7 Dak Prescott DAL -0.82
52 WR15 Terry McLaurin WAS -0.86
53 QB8 Tom Brady TB -0.87
54 TE5 George Kittle SF -0.91
55 QB9 Russell Wilson DEN -0.92
56 WR16 Mike Williams LAC -0.95
57 QB10 Trey Lance SF -0.99
58 QB11 Joe Burrow CIN -1.09
59 WR17 Jaylen Waddle MIA -1.25
60 WR18 Keenan Allen LAC -1.28
61 QB12 Matthew Stafford LAR -1.35
62 WR19 D.J. Moore CAR -1.39
63 TE6 T.J. Hockenson DET -1.39
64 WR20 Michael Thomas NO -1.39
65 RB27 James Conner ARI -1.40
66 WR21 Jerry Jeudy DEN -1.49
67 WR22 DK Metcalf SEA -1.50
68 RB28 Melvin Gordon DEN -1.51
69 WR23 Diontae Johnson PIT -1.60
70 QB13 Aaron Rodgers GB -1.61
71 WR24 Elijah Moore NYJ -1.64
72 RB29 Antonio Gibson WAS -1.68
73 WR25 Brandin Cooks HOU -1.78
74 RB30 Tony Pollard DAL -1.79
75 WR26 Marquise Brown ARI -1.93
76 RB31 Kareem Hunt CLE -2.02
77 TE7 Dallas Goedert PHI -2.07
78 RB32 Josh Jacobs LV -2.07
79 WR27 Gabriel Davis BUF -2.15
80 QB14 Kirk Cousins MIN -2.21
81 RB33 Chase Edmonds MIA -2.26
82 WR28 DeVonta Smith PHI -2.26
83 WR29 Rashod Bateman BAL -2.31
84 WR30 Allen Lazard GB -2.39
85 WR31 Darnell Mooney CHI -2.44
86 WR32 Hunter Renfrow LV -2.45
87 TE8 Albert Okwuegbunam DEN -2.55
88 RB34 Tyler Allgeier ATL -2.69
89 WR33 Amon-Ra St. Brown DET -2.70
90 WR34 Brandon Aiyuk SF -2.74
91 RB35 Cam Akers LAR -2.77
92 RB36 James Cook BUF -2.85
93 TE9 Dawson Knox BUF -2.86
94 RB37 Devin Singletary BUF -3.00
95 WR35 Adam Thielen MIN -3.00
96 WR36 Kadarius Toney NYG -3.00
97 RB38 Nyheim Hines IND -3.01
98 RB39 Dameon Pierce HOU -3.02
99 RB40 James Robinson JAC -3.03
100 WR37 Russell Gage TB -3.05
101 RB41 Kenneth Walker SEA -3.05
102 TE10 Dalton Schultz DAL -3.09
103 TE11 Zach Ertz ARI -3.18
104 TE12 Irv Smith MIN -3.21
105 WR38 Tyler Lockett SEA -3.44
106 RB42 Isaiah Spiller LAC -3.44
107 WR39 Drake London ATL -3.57
108 WR40 Tyler Boyd CIN -3.59
109 QB15 Derek Carr LV -3.60
110 RB43 Kenneth Gainwell PHI -3.62
111 WR41 JuJu Smith-Schuster KC -3.64
112 WR42 Christian Kirk JAC -3.69
113 TE13 Pat Freiermuth PIT -3.71
114 WR43 Chris Godwin TB -3.71
115 TE14 Cole Kmet CHI -3.73
116 TE15 Austin Hooper TEN -3.75
117 TE16 David Njoku CLE -3.77
118 WR44 DeVante Parker NE -3.79
119 TE17 Tyler Higbee LAR -3.81
120 WR45 Marvin Jones JAC -3.82
121 WR46 Skyy Moore KC -3.82
122 TE18 Noah Fant SEA -3.84
123 WR47 Chris Olave NO -3.85
124 RB44 Michael Carter NYJ -3.87
125 WR48 Robert Woods TEN -3.88
126 QB16 Trevor Lawrence JAC -3.93
127 WR49 Treylon Burks TEN -3.97
128 RB45 Brian Robinson Jr. WAS -4.09
129 WR50 Chase Claypool PIT -4.11
130 QB17 Daniel Jones NYG -4.14
131 WR51 Amari Cooper CLE -4.15
132 WR52 Garrett Wilson NYJ -4.18
133 TE19 Evan Engram JAC -4.20
134 WR53 Nico Collins HOU -4.26
135 QB18 Justin Fields CHI -4.29
136 RB46 Jamaal Williams DET -4.34
137 TE20 Brevin Jordan HOU -4.36
138 QB19 Tua Tagovailoa MIA -4.42
139 QB20 Matt Ryan IND -4.43
140 TE21 Gerald Everett LAC -4.43
141 RB47 Rachaad White TB -4.53
142 WR54 DeAndre Hopkins ARI -4.56
143 TE22 Hunter Henry NE -4.64
144 QB21 Ryan Tannehill TEN -4.85
145 RB48 Isiah Pacheco KC -4.90
146 QB22 Mitchell Trubisky PIT -4.92
147 WR55 Jahan Dotson WAS -4.94
148 RB49 Gus Edwards BAL -5.02
149 TE23 Tyler Conklin NYJ -5.05
150 WR56 Romeo Doubs GB -5.05
151 QB23 Jameis Winston NO -5.10
152 WR57 K.J. Osborn MIN -5.17
153 WR58 Marquez Valdes-Scantling KC -5.18
154 TE24 Mike Gesicki MIA -5.19
155 WR59 D.J. Chark DET -5.20
156 RB50 Khalil Herbert CHI -5.22
157 WR60 Rondale Moore ARI -5.26
158 RB51 Rashaad Penny SEA -5.29
159 WR61 George Pickens PIT -5.35
160 TE25 Jonnu Smith NE -5.35
161 QB24 Mac Jones NE -5.39
162 RB52 D'Onta Foreman CAR -5.42
163 WR62 Wan'Dale Robinson NYG -5.46
164 RB53 Sony Michel MIA -5.49
165 RB54 Darrell Henderson LAR -5.51
166 WR63 Kendrick Bourne NE -5.52
167 WR64 Donovan Peoples-Jones CLE -5.53
168 RB55 Alexander Mattison MIN -5.55
169 WR65 Jarvis Landry NO -5.57
170 WR66 Julio Jones TB -5.61
171 WR67 Josh Palmer LAC -5.69
172 RB56 J.D. McKissic WAS -5.71
173 WR68 Robbie Anderson CAR -5.82
174 WR69 Jakobi Meyers NE -5.97
175 WR70 Curtis Samuel WAS -5.98
176 RB57 Chris Evans CIN -6.02
177 RB58 Zamir White LV -6.14
178 WR71 Van Jefferson LAR -6.17
179 WR72 Isaiah McKenzie BUF -6.23
180 RB59 Raheem Mostert MIA -6.43
181 WR73 Cedrick Wilson MIA -6.47
182 RB60 Hassan Haskins TEN -6.53
183 WR74 Velus Jones Jr. CHI -6.54
184 WR75 Parris Campbell IND -6.60
185 WR76 Kenny Golladay NYG -6.63
186 RB61 Eno Benjamin ARI -6.74
187 WR77 Jalen Tolbert DAL -6.77
188 WR78 Alec Pierce IND -6.81
189 WR79 Mecole Hardman KC -6.86
190 RB62 Ty Montgomery NE -6.88
191 RB63 Ameer Abdullah LV -6.99
192 WR80 Christian Watson GB -7.19
193 WR81 Terrace Marshall Jr. CAR -7.25
194 RB64 Mark Ingram NO -7.34
195 WR82 Zay Jones JAC -7.64
196 RB65 Zack Moss BUF -7.73
197 WR83 Randall Cobb GB -7.90
198 WR84 Michael Gallup DAL -8.03
199 WR85 Corey Davis NYJ -8.15
200 WR86 Jameson Williams DET -8.34


PPR | Half-PPR | Non-PPR | Superflex | FFPC





Doug Orth has written for FF Today since 2006 and been featured in USA TODAY's Fantasy Football Preview magazine since 2010. He is also a high-stakes player who often appears as a guest analyst on a number of national sports radio shows, such as Sirius XM's "Fantasy Drive." Doug is also a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association.