Imagine if I asked you to go on a three-hour drive and told you
the route included exactly 10 turns (and/or changes of direction).
If prompted, I could tell you a ton of details about the journey,
such as what you could expect in terms of fuel efficiency and how
long it took others to make the same trip. The caveat: I am not
allowed to give you directions to your destination and you will
not have access to GPS.
This example came to mind over the weekend as I was driving to
the grocery store and tuned into Sirius XM Fantasy Radio. A fairly
high-profile analyst was noticeably surprised as one of the show's
co-hosts read off a particular receiver's matchups for the 2020
season. Think about that for a second: an analyst who makes a
living in this industry and charges customers for his insight
not taking matchups into account - perhaps the most important
factor that helps us set our lineups, at least early in the season.
His reaction was not one of being reminded about how difficult
the player's individual matchups were, but rather one of complete
ignorance. This came on the heels of a rant by another Sirius
XM analyst who went off on the number of fantasy analysts who
rely almost entirely on data one day earlier.
As much as I hope you value my opinions and insights when it
comes to fantasy football, the goal at the end of the day is to
win championships as often as possible. Even though fantasy football
is a numbers game, that kind of success doesn't come from merely
crunching numbers. Winning consistently in fantasy football involves
a solid marriage of film analysis and analytical insights; find
an analyst or five who can do that - assuming you don't have the
time/interest/knowledge to do it yourself - and I'm willing to
bet you will soon be winning 60 percent or more of your matchups.
Analytics may confirm Derrick Henry is perhaps the best runner
in the league when it comes to yards after contact, but they can't
begin to explain how the Patriots defense shut out DeVante Parker
in Week 2 and gave up an 8-137-0 line to him with playoff implications
on the line in Week 17 unless they come attached with some context.
The other lesson to be learned here: don't be afraid to (respectfully)
test any analyst. Of course, I don't mean playing a game of 20
questions with them, but rather ask for specifics. Any service/analyst
whose advice comes with a price tag should be able to deliver
them. After all, just about any fantasy question I don't know
off the top of my head or can't find by clicking on a few links
can usually be found by watching NFL Game Pass.
Allow me to reluctantly engage in a bit of a humble brag before
we get into the heart of what I believe is the best draft-day
tool around. (Yes, I'm biased.) I've been playing in money leagues
for 20 years and in high-stakes leagues ($1,000-plus entry) for
over 10 years. I've played in those high-stakes leagues during
the leanest of times, and I did so in part because I knew I had
an advantage my competition did not. Does it always result in
a league prize? Of course not. However, I think the fact I have
yet to finish in the red in any year since I started is a pretty
good indication my approach works. My analysis will not always
end up being right, but rest assured it came as the result of
film review AND analytical research.
*****************
Football is simple at its very core but a very complex game to
evaluate and analyze because 11 men are being asked to work in
harmony approximately 60 times per game, while 11 other men are
being asked to disrupt that harmony. Pro football is not pro basketball
in that a team can clear out one side of the court when things
break down and the offense can still score. Pro football is not
pro baseball in that one player can defeat a pitcher and eight
fielders by timing his swing just right. Even as great as Barry
Sanders was, he never beat a defense all by himself. In football,
every player needs some help to accomplish his goal. That is part
of what makes football so great and part of what makes it so highly
unpredictable. The violence of the game - even by the tamer standards
in this day and age - adds another element to the equation that
is difficult to quantify.
Regardless, it doesn't mean we shouldn't try. Over the last month,
I have evaluated the weekly matchups for 500-plus players. Analyzing
matchups alone requires me to make 7,500 "decisions".
This is not meant to be a humble brag. Each year, my goal is to
give those who put their faith in my evaluations the confidence
they have the best draft-day tool at their disposal. I like to
think that even if readers believe my logic is flawed for whatever
reason, they can count on the fact that much thought has been
put into that opinion.
How much thought, you ask?
For example, Michael Gallup lined up on the left side of the
formation 456 times, on the right side 292 times and in the slot
96 times last year. Since the majority of defensive coordinators
tend to have their cornerbacks stick to one side as opposed to
following a particular receiver, Gallup's ability to match up
and defeat each of the defensive backs in those spots should/needs
to be considered. I do that for each player who projects to stand
inside the top three of his team's depth chart, and all of that
information is factored into my projections. While how often Gallup
lines up in a certain spot will inevitably be different from last
year, it's unlikely his role as Dallas' "X" receiver
will change under second-year OC Kellen Moore.
Fantasy football is a stock market game, and our job as analysts
is identifying when stocks may be poised for an increase or ready
to tank. While last year's results help fantasy owners/analysts
set the table for the following season, they are merely a starting
point. Fantasy rankings and drafting need to be predictive, not
reactive. This is the approach I have taken for more than 10 years.
While some of the processes have changed in that time, the main
goal has not.
The Success Score Index (SSI) below is powered
in large part by my target and carry predictions that have been
featured in this space over the last two weeks. As always, the
matchups are included in the algorithm. SSI allows me to compare
apples to oranges across positions. Perhaps just as importantly,
I have been able to eliminate most of the guesswork across different
scoring systems (PPR, standard, etc.).
For all of those unfamiliar with my Big Boards, allow me to explain
the color-coding system before we start:
Red – For lower-level players, a red matchup
is the most difficult one a player can face. For a second- or
third-tier player, drop your expectations for them at
least one grade that week (i.e. from WR2 to WR3). For
elite players, expect them to perform one level lower than their
usual status (i.e. RB1 performs like an RB2).
Yellow – For lower-level players, he is a borderline
start at best. For a second- or third-tier player, the slight
edge goes to the defense in what is essentially a toss-up. For
the elite players, expect slightly better than average production.
White – This one can go either way, but I favor
the player over the matchup. In some cases, I just don’t
feel like I have a good feel yet for this matchup. Generally speaking,
these matchups are winnable for all levels of players.
Green – For non-elite players, the stage is
set for a player to have a productive day. For the elite player,
this matchup could produce special numbers.
Note: Players with a
next to their name have some degree of injury/character/holdout
concern. Also, I have added tiers for this final round of Big
Boards. I decided to ditch the color-coded tiers I have used in
previous years for a simpler and more straight-forward number-based
system.
Later this week, I will release my Top 200 Big Boards for standard
and 0.5 PPR leagues. In the coming days, I will present my final
rankings for kickers and defense/special teams as well. Next week
will feature Top 200 Big Boards for Superflex leagues as well
as the Fantasy Football Players Championship (FFPC).
Here is the scoring
system that I used to rank the players in the PPR format:
ESPN's Adam Schefter mentioned over the weekend that if Dalvin Cook and the Vikings can't come to terms on a new contract before
the start of the season, it would give him (Schefter) pause in
drafting Cook on his fantasy team. This is notable for several
reasons, including but not limited to the fact that Schefter is
not only about as good as it gets when it comes to NFL information
but also an avid fantasy football player. Certainly, this could
be little more than a ploy by Cook and his agent to get something
done sooner than later. It could also be a hint that Cook will
do the unthinkable (at least in terms of the code most athletes
live by) and protect himself until his demands are met, not dissimilar
to the way Le'Veon Bell handled his business a couple of years
ago. Could Cook pull out of training camp in the coming days?
It seems unfathomable that he would let an opportunity to play
for OC Gary Kubiak go by in his walk year, but plenty of fantasy
owners were already on the fence with him at No. 5 overall due
to his lack of durability. It may end up being just the push many
of us needed to place him behind the elite receivers (Thomas and
Adams).
Continuing the theme I established in the intro, it is lazy analysis
to suggest the only thing that happened to Joe
Mixon in the second half of last year was the Bengals decided
to increase his volume. The Bengals came to a few realizations
leading into and during their Week 9 bye. Try as they might, Cincinnati
simply did not have the personnel - particularly up front - to
run the same outside zone scheme that HC Zac Taylor watched the
Rams use under Sean McVay. It was about the same time Taylor gained
a true appreciation for Mixon's talent, and it was also about
the same time the Bengals began to realize A.J.
Green was unlikely to return in time to rescue the offense.
The major
schematic change Cincinnati made was moving to a pin-and-pull
blocking scheme that involves two interior offensive linemen pulling
to the outside while receivers or tight ends lined up on the edge
pin down to create a running lane. A second adjustment Cincinnati
made was running Mixon up the middle more often and flexing TE
C.J. Uzomah
behind the right guard and right tackle to solve the problem of
those two linemen being unable to get to the second level of the
defense. Don't be afraid to target Mixon near the end of the first
round; he may finally have the kind of coaching staff and supporting
cast he needs to maximize his talent.
Based on drafts that I've been involved in so far, I'm fairly
certain Derrick Henry is lower on my board than he is on most
others'. It's hard in this day and age for a back - regardless
of how talented he is - to be a first-round fantasy pick if he
doesn't contribute much in the passing game. There's always a
chance this will be the year he gets more involved in that respect,
but we are entering Year 5 with him and multiple coaching staffs
saw fit to limit his usage as a receiver. Consider for a second
Henry is running behind a line that was afforded him a mere 1.9
yards before contact in each of the last two seasons and add in
the fact the Titans lost their best run-blocker (RT Jack Conklin)
in free agency. Never mind that Tennessee also must face Denver,
Minnesota and Pittsburgh in the first month of the season and
probably played over its head on defense a year ago, which should
lead to more negative game scripts. There's also plenty of evidence
to suggest backs experience significant drop-offs in production
after a high-usage season (391 carries last year, including the
playoffs). If the Titans are forced from behind a bit more often
in 2020 and they continue to limit Henry as a receiver, it could
end up being a disappointing season for a player coming off the
board as early as No. 5 in some drafts.
Running Backs in Tiers 3 and beyond
Coaches and/or players will occasionally provide fantasy owners
a cheat code when they talk. It's often up to us to decipher the
message since they must walk the fine line of answering a question
without giving up too much information. Fortunately, Steelers
HC Mike Tomlin tends to say what he means and mean what he says.
In the middle of May, the Pittsburgh Tribune asked Tomlin about
his plans at running back for the 2020 season. Here was the bulk
of his response:
“I’m a featured-runner type guy by mentality. I think that
when you have a featured runner, it gives him the opportunity
to drop a stake in the ground and allows others to rally around
him, and it gives him a set of core base run plays that he specializes
in, and you find a rhythm that way. … James is a featured guy
and proven runner when healthy. We’re excited about him getting
back to health and displaying that in 2020. Benny
Snell is a guy that is capable of being a featured runner
who plays with a physical style in a similar manner to James.
He’s capable of being a James-type of guy if James is unavailable.”
Throughout the bulk of Tomlin's time in Pittsburgh, this is exactly
how the Steelers' backfield has operated. From Willie Parker to
Rashard Mendenhall to Le'Veon Bell to DeAngelo Williams and now Conner, Pittsburgh has typically featured one running back and
only taken him off the field when he needed to catch his breath
or suffered an injury. Tomlin acknowledges Conner needs to stay
healthy, but there's not much room for misinterpretation with
anything the coach is saying. Conner is one year removed from
being a top 10 pick in fantasy, so we already know he's capable.
The coaching staff has a long history of relying heavily on a
workhorse, so volume shouldn't be an issue. The major concern
is his injury history. Unlike last year, that is being accounted
for in his draft cost. Better yet, his handcuff (Snell) is either
going in the last round of fantasy drafts or sitting on the waiver
wire. If I told you that the only thing you have to do to secure
a likely top 10 fantasy back is spend a third and 16th-round pick
on the position, wouldn't everyone do it? I anticipate landing
Conner and Snell on the bulk of my teams over the next two weeks
and fully expect that combo to give me a weekly advantage at my
RB2 spot.
This offseason may have just as well been dubbed "The Coronation
of Jonathan
Taylor." There's a certain level of risk tolerance one must
accept once the first 14 running backs fly off the board, usually
halfway through the second round. As I noted in the post-draft
analysis following the FFToday Staff League Draft, I can't
publicly rank Taylor over a number of backs because I realize
there are a lot of people who use my Big Board as a draft-day
tool and don’t have the same tolerance for risk as I do. I took
Leonard
Fournette in the aforementioned draft in part to diversify
my portfolio and in part because I wanted to lock in what I believe
should be about 300 touches from my RB2. Marlon
Mack may not be in Taylor's class, but I'm not sure this becomes
Taylor's backfield until after the Colts' Week 7 bye. Even then,
how often is Taylor going to stay on the field on passing downs
with Nyheim Hines
around? In my high-stakes leagues, I'm willing to roll the dice
on Taylor as early as 3.02 because I know what the payoff could
be if he leaves Mack in his wake sooner than later. There are
considerable blemishes on the resumes of Fournette, Le'Veon Bell
and Todd Gurley
as well as just about every back behind them. The question with
Taylor is this: can you afford to wait a month or maybe even longer
to see a payoff from what might be this year's version of Nick
Chubb in 2018?
Middle-round running backs
Without question, my favorite mid-round running backs are Phillip Lindsay and Zack Moss. Lindsay's value spiked a bit last week
after HC Vic Fangio told reporters that he anticipates "both
(Melvin Gordon and Lindsay) playing enough where we really don't
have to designate a starter." Well then. Naturally, this
is something that I expected and something that has been reflected
on the Big Boards since I started releasing them two weeks ago.
Lindsay's stock shouldn't be taken as an insult by Gordon supporters
though, as the Broncos figure to be much improved on defense this
season and could rely heavily on the ground game while trying
to ease in Drew Lock as much as possible. It should not come as
much of a surprise if Denver is among the leaders in rush attempts
considering the talent it has in the backfield and Fangio's defensive-minded
background, so there should be plenty of opportunity for both
Gordon and Lindsay to be capable starters most weeks.
Moss is in a similar boat as Lindsay, as Devin Singletary will
be about as tough to bounce from the starting lineup as Gordon.
But fantasy owners should keep one very notable stat from last
season in mind: Singletary faced eight men in the box a league-low
5.3 percent of the time. Frank Gore was at 37.35 percent - the
third-highest mark in the league. In other words, opponents were
more than willing to take their chances that the Bills were going
to run whenever Gore was in the game and pass whenever Singletary
entered. Don't expect defenses to back off Singletary so much
this year. Moss gives Buffalo a capable pass-catcher in a power
back's body, so he figures to enjoy more success in Gore's old
role than his predecessor did. Further consider Moss was drafted
in part to convert the goal-line opportunities Gore did not in
2019, which led to half of Josh Allen's eight rushing scores in
2019. Buffalo also figures to lean more heavily on the ground
game as the weather gets colder in November and December. Cold
weather tends to make coaches turn to big-boy football, and that
is where Moss excels. It certainly doesn't hurt his cause that
the Bills are also led by a defensive-minded head coach (Sean
McDermott).
Tier 3 receivers
So let me get this right: Odell Beckham plays through a core
muscle injury for the bulk of last season, logs 16 games for the
first time in three seasons and puts up over 1,000 yards in a
dysfunctional offense and he's more affordable in fantasy drafts
than at any time since he was a rookie. I get it to a point: new
HC Kevin Stefanski is installing his Minnesota offense (or so
everyone wants to believe), thereby reducing the number of targets
available, and OBJ hasn't been the most durable player. Still,
even if we make the assumption Stefanski: a) is calling the shots
on offense and b) implements a carbon copy of the Vikings' passing
game from a season ago, I would argue Cleveland's defense this
year may not be on par with Minnesota's last year AND the Browns
may actually have superior talent at quarterback, wide receiver
and tight end. It's a fairly safe bet Cleveland will attempt at
least 500 passes this season and maybe even top 525. What are
the odds OBJ and Landry don't combine to absorb half of those
looks? They easily cleared that benchmark last year and neither
one of them was healthy. Don't let one year change your opinion
on Beckham's transcendent talent. If he is healthy, he will get
his targets. With Stefanski placing a heavy emphasis on play-action
passes in this offense, it should mean more YAC opportunities
for one of the better run-after-catch receivers in the league.
There's not much evidence to suggest Robert Woods will ever be
a proficient touchdown scorer. His career high is seven (six receiving,
one rushing) in 2018. Every other season, he has managed five
or fewer. But what if I told you there was a reason to believe
a return to 2018 was possible in that regard? Well, here's at
least one reason: Woods was targeted a mere three times inside
the red zone before December and did not see a single look inside
the 20 in November. Over the last five games of the season, he
attracted six such targets. If that seems to fall in line with
the team's highly publicized switch from 11 personnel to more
12 personnel, you would be right. To put his last five games into
some perspective, he kept company with Michael Thomas in terms
of targets (61-59), catches (45-39), receiving yards (483-471)
and receiving TDs (3-2) over that stretch. If the Rams continue
to lean more on 12 personnel this year, Woods might be a dark-horse
candidate to lead the league in catches. Thanks in part to a copious
number of rushing attempts in each of the last two seasons (19
in 2018 and 17 in 2019), Woods has exceeded 100 touches both years.
He has topped 130 targets as well, suggesting volume won't be
a problem anytime soon. Count your blessings if he lasts until
the middle of the fourth round.
Kenny Golladay
has been a popular third-round target for the bulk of the spring
and summer and occasionally even makes an appearance at the end
of the second round. It's not hard to make the case for him in
that area based on his talent and the fact he led the league with
13 targets inside the 10. With that said, I'm stretching his touchdown
upside a lot to rank him as high as I have him. There's a strong
case to be made he'll benefit from a full season of Matthew
Stafford slinging him the rock, but potential fantasy owners
must consider how likely it is that he matches last year's efficiency.
Can he repeat last year's 11 touchdowns on 65 catches after scoring
eight times on his first 98 career receptions? The industry has
been quick to suggest A.J.
Brown is due for regression after he averaged 20.2 yards per
catch last year. How about Golladay's 18.3? Let's also not forget
about the addition of D'Andre Swift (admittedly unlikely to compete
for similar targets since Golladay is more of a vertical receiver)
and another step forward from T.J.
Hockenson. If Hockenson manages to stay healthy, it's a virtual
lock he will steal a sizable chunk of Golladay's targets inside
the 10 AND his downfield looks. Marvin
Jones isn't going
anywhere yet either.
Tier 4 receivers and beyond
While the depth of the position and the emergence of DK Metcalf
contribute to it, the lack of respect Tyler Lockett is receiving
in drafts borders is ridiculous. Let's begin with the most important
factor: perhaps no quarterback-receiver duo has a stronger connection
than the one Russell Wilson has with Lockett. Before suffering
a leg bruise that required a hospital stay in Week 10, Lockett
was the overall WR3 in total fantasy points and WR5 in points
per game. He dealt with the flu about the same time he was trying
to recover from the leg injury, but it was pretty much business
as usual after that once he came off the injury report in Week
15. Skeptics will point to Seattle's run-heavy ways and a subsequent
lack of targets (relative to the elite receivers) as reasons why
they pass on him, but it should be noted Lockett has a career
catch rate of 71.5 percent and finished above that mark in each
of the last two seasons. In short, Lockett doesn't require a ton
of targets (110 last year) because he makes the most of his somewhat
limited opportunities. There's a strong case to be made for Lockett
going in the late third round, yet he is typically available in
the early-to-middle part of the fifth.
Take one look at Will
Fuller's injury
history; can anyone justify why there is at least one person
in every draft who sees him as a godsend in the fifth or sixth
round? I am the first to get annoyed anytime someone slaps the
"injury-prone" tag on a player just because they had the audacity
to get hurt playing a brutal game. I do believe there is such
a thing as being prone to injury though (or not having a good
"football frame"). It seems rather obvious when a player has suffered
five documented hamstring injuries, two knee strains, one torn
ACL, a shoulder fracture, a rib fracture, etc. over four NFL seasons
that he may not be the definition of durable. He hasn't even been
all that consistent when he has been on the field. He has scored
a touchdown in just one of his last 15 games (three times in Week
5 last season). He set career highs last season with 49 catches
and 670 yards. While the trade of DeAndre
Hopkins opens up a bunch of targets in this offense, it did
not come with a guarantee Fuller is physically capable of being
the man. To his credit, Fuller tackled
the problem head-on this offseason. Adding strength to his
lower body should help, but we've already covered the fact that
not all of his injuries have been to his lower body or suffered
as the result of a lack of muscle. It is nice to see that Deshaun
Watson believes so much in Fuller's ability, but there's not
a lot of evidence suggest he is capable of living up to his draft
spot or staying on the field for the bulk of the team's schedule.
A word or two about tight ends
When I landed Zach Ertz in the early third round of the Scott
Fish Bowl (tight end premium scoring) in early July, I considered
myself extremely fortunate. Nearly two months later, the public
still seems to be undervaluing him. In two of four best-ball leagues
that I've participated in over the last week, I have drafted him
in the fifth round once and the sixth round another time. In an
industry auction league a little over a week ago, I got him for
$10. Although tight end position is as deep as I can ever remember
it being, the position isn't exactly overflowing with 80-catch
options. Ertz may not be the shiny new toy that everyone wants
at age 29, but he is still Carson Wentz's favorite target by a
wide margin and the unquestioned starter in a good offense. He
has managed at least 75 catches and 800 receiving yards in five
straight seasons and attracted at least 135 targets in each of
the last two years. That alone should be enough to cement an automatic
third-round selection or $15-18 bid. Never mind the fact Ertz
was a walking M*A*S*H* unit by the end of 2019. Through 14 "mostly"
healthy games, Ertz was the overall TE2 and within an earshot
of Travis Kelce for TE1 honors.
While Philadelphia will undoubtedly continue to use a heavy dose
of 12 personnel to make sure it takes advantage of Dallas Goedert's
skill, the Eagles may have enough quality receivers to use more
11 personnel after drafting Jalen Reagor this spring and getting
a strong camp from slot Greg Ward. The market seems to be reading
Dallas Goedert's usage down the stretch as a precursor to a breakout,
but something will need to give if the receivers enjoy even moderately
better injury luck in 2020. Goedert may not take a huge hit statistically,
but he is not a great bet to be a regular fantasy star barring
an injury to Ertz.
One of my favorite late-round targets at tight end this year
- along with Irv Smith - is Greg Olsen. How can that be? In two
seasons following the departure of Jimmy Graham, Seattle's tight
ends have scored a total of 15 touchdowns. Even the strongest
supporters of Will Dissly will struggle to say he is something
more than a league-average talent, but he is the best option the
Seahawks have given Russell Wilson at the position post-Graham.
What has become quite apparent is that Wilson loves throwing to
his tight ends near the end zone, as that is largely how Dissly
has become such a familiar name to fantasy owners. Olsen may be
about five years removed from his prime and a bit of an injury
risk given his foot problems, but he proved he still has something
left in 2019 by amassing 52 catches for 597 yards with Kyle Allen
as his quarterback. Olsen can still stretch the seam a bit at
age 35 and joins an offense led by two receivers (Lockett and
Metcalf) capable of scoring from anywhere. Seattle also can run
the rock. In short, Olsen isn't going to be the first or even
third most pressing concern for defenses. That's a good deal for
his fantasy owners.
Doug Orth has written for FF Today since 2006 and been featured
in USA TODAY's Fantasy Football Preview magazine since 2010. He
is also a high-stakes player who often appears as a guest analyst
on a number of national sports radio shows, such as Sirius XM's
"Fantasy Drive." Doug is also a member of the Fantasy
Sports Writers Association.
next to their name have some degree of injury/character/holdout
concern. Also, I have added tiers for this final round of Big
Boards. I decided to ditch the color-coded tiers I have used in
previous years for a simpler and more straight-forward number-based
system.
