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Top 200 Big Board, Half-Point PPR: Version 2.0


Preseason Matchup Analysis

By Doug Orth | 8/29/20 |
PPR | Half-Point PPR | Non-PPR | SuperFlex


Football is simple at its very core but a very complex game to evaluate and analyze because 11 men are being asked to work in harmony approximately 60 times per game, while 11 other men are being asked to disrupt that harmony. Pro football is not pro basketball in that a team can clear out one side of the court when things break down and the offense can still score. Pro football is not pro baseball in that one player can defeat a pitcher and eight fielders by timing his swing just right. Even as great as Barry Sanders was, he never beat a defense all by himself. In football, every player needs some help to accomplish his goal. That is part of what makes football so great and part of what makes it so highly unpredictable. The violence of the game - even by the tamer standards in this day and age - adds another element to the equation that is difficult to quantify.

Regardless, it doesn't mean we shouldn't try. Over the last month, I have evaluated the weekly matchups for 500-plus players. Analyzing matchups alone requires me to make 7,500 "decisions". This is not meant to be a humble brag. Each year, my goal is to give those who put their faith in my evaluations the confidence they have the best draft-day tool at their disposal. I like to think that even if readers believe my logic is flawed for whatever reason, they can count on the fact that much thought has been put into that opinion.

How much thought, you ask?

For example, Michael Gallup lined up on the left side of the formation 456 times, on the right side 292 times and in the slot 96 times last year. Since the majority of defensive coordinators tend to have their cornerbacks stick to one side as opposed to following a particular receiver, Gallup's ability to match up and defeat each of the defensive backs in those spots should/needs to be considered. I do that for each player who projects to stand inside the top three of his team's depth chart, and all of that information is factored into my projections. While how often Gallup lines up in a certain spot will inevitably be different from last year, it's unlikely his role as Dallas' "X" receiver will change under second-year OC Kellen Moore.

Fantasy football is a stock market game, and our job as analysts is identifying when stocks may be poised for an increase or ready to tank. While last year's results help fantasy owners/analysts set the table for the following season, they are merely a starting point. Fantasy rankings and drafting need to be predictive, not reactive. This is the approach I have taken for more than 10 years. While some of the processes have changed in that time, the main goal has not.

The Success Score Index (SSI) below is powered in large part by my target and carry predictions that have been featured in this space over the last two weeks. As always, the matchups are included in the algorithm. SSI allows me to compare apples to oranges across positions. Perhaps just as importantly, I have been able to eliminate most of the guesswork across different scoring systems (PPR, standard, etc.).

For all of those unfamiliar with my Big Boards, allow me to explain the color-coding system before we start:

Red For lower-level players, a red matchup is the most difficult one a player can face. For a second- or third-tier player, drop your expectations for them at least one grade that week (i.e. from WR2 to WR3). For elite players, expect them to perform one level lower than their usual status (i.e. RB1 performs like an RB2).

Yellow For lower-level players, he is a borderline start at best. For a second- or third-tier player, the slight edge goes to the defense in what is essentially a toss-up. For the elite players, expect slightly better than average production.

White This one can go either way, but I favor the player over the matchup. In some cases, I just don’t feel like I have a good feel yet for this matchup. Generally speaking, these matchups are winnable for all levels of players.

Green For non-elite players, the stage is set for a player to have a productive day. For the elite player, this matchup could produce special numbers.

Note: Players with a next to their name have some degree of injury/character/holdout concern.

Later this week, I will release my Top 200 Big Boards for standard leagues. In the coming days, I will present my final rankings for kickers and defense/special teams as well. Next week will feature Top 200 Big Boards for Superflex leagues as well as the Fantasy Football Players Championship (FFPC).

Here is the scoring system that I used to rank the players in the Half-Point PPR format:

 Half-Point PPR Big Board - Top 200
Rank Tier Pos Player Tm SSI 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
1 1 RB1 Christian McCaffrey CAR 10.5
2 1 RB2 Saquon Barkley NYG 9.2
3 1 RB3 Alvin Kamara NO 7.2
4 1 RB4 Ezekiel Elliott DAL 7.2
5 1 RB5 Derrick Henry TEN 5.9
6 1 WR1 Davante Adams GB 5.8
7 1 RB6 Dalvin Cook MIN 5.5
8 1 WR2 Michael Thomas NO 5.2
9 2 RB7 Joe Mixon CIN 4.9
10 2 RB8 Clyde Edwards-Helaire KC 4.5
11 2 TE1 Travis Kelce KC 4.5
12 2 RB9 Miles Sanders PHI 4.4
13 2 RB10 Josh Jacobs LV 4.3
14 2 TE2 George Kittle SF 4.3
15 2 RB11 Kenyan Drake ARI 4.3
16 2 WR3 Julio Jones ATL 4.0
17 2 RB12 Nick Chubb CLE 3.8
18 2 WR4 Chris Godwin TB 3.7
19 2 WR5 Tyreek Hill KC 3.4
20 3 QB1 Patrick Mahomes KC 3.3
21 3 RB13 Aaron Jones GB 3.3
22 3 WR6 DeAndre Hopkins ARI 2.8
23 3 WR7 Odell Beckham Jr. CLE 2.8
24 3 WR8 A.J. Brown TEN 2.5
25 3 WR9 Mike Evans TB 2.4
26 3 RB14 Austin Ekeler LAC 2.3
27 3 RB15 Jonathan Taylor IND 2.2
28 3 WR10 Allen Robinson CHI 2.2
29 3 WR11 Adam Thielen MIN 2.2
30 3 WR12 Calvin Ridley ATL 2.2
31 3 RB16 Chris Carson SEA 2.1
32 3 RB17 James Conner PIT 2.1
33 4 TE3 Mark Andrews BAL 2.1
34 4 WR13 JuJu Smith-Schuster PIT 2.0
35 4 WR14 Robert Woods LAR 2.0
36 4 WR15 D.J. Moore CAR 2.0
37 4 TE4 Zach Ertz PHI 1.9
38 4 WR16 Tyler Lockett SEA 1.9
39 4 QB2 Lamar Jackson BAL 1.8
40 4 TE5 Darren Waller LV 1.7
41 4 WR17 Kenny Golladay DET 1.7
42 4 WR18 Terry McLaurin WAS 1.5
43 4 WR19 DK Metcalf SEA 1.4
44 4 RB18 Mark Ingram BAL 1.3
45 4 WR20 Amari Cooper DAL 1.2
46 4 RB19 Todd Gurley ATL 1.2
47 4 WR21 DeVante Parker MIA 1.2
48 4 RB20 Leonard Fournette JAC 1.2
49 5 TE6 Hayden Hurst ATL 0.9
50 5 WR22 D.J. Chark JAC 0.8
51 5 RB21 Melvin Gordon DEN 0.8
52 5 WR23 Jarvis Landry CLE 0.7
53 5 WR24 Courtland Sutton DEN 0.6
54 5 TE7 Evan Engram NYG 0.5
55 5 QB3 Dak Prescott DAL 0.5
56 5 WR25 A.J. Green CIN 0.4
57 5 RB22 David Johnson HOU 0.3
58 5 RB23 Ronald Jones TB 0.3
59 5 WR26 Cooper Kupp LAR 0.3
60 5 WR27 Tyler Boyd CIN 0.3
61 6 RB24 Le'Veon Bell NYJ 0.2
62 6 WR28 Will Fuller HOU 0.0
63 6 WR29 Marquise Brown BAL 0.0
64 6 WR30 Keenan Allen LAC 0.0
65 6 RB25 D'Andre Swift DET 0.0
66 6 WR31 Michael Gallup DAL -0.1
67 6 RB26 Raheem Mostert SF -0.2
68 6 QB4 Kyler Murray ARI -0.3
69 6 QB5 Russell Wilson SEA -0.3
70 6 QB6 Carson Wentz PHI -0.3
71 6 QB7 Deshaun Watson HOU -0.4
72 7 TE8 Tyler Higbee LAR -0.5
73 7 WR32 Stefon Diggs BUF -0.5
74 7 RB27 David Montgomery CHI -0.6
75 7 WR33 T.Y. Hilton IND -0.6
76 7 TE9 Hunter Henry LAC -0.6
77 7 WR34 Marvin Jones DET -0.7
78 7 RB28 Kareem Hunt CLE -0.8
79 7 RB29 Cam Akers LAR -0.9
80 7 WR35 Brandin Cooks HOU -0.9
81 7 TE10 T.J. Hockenson DET -1.1
82 7 WR36 CeeDee Lamb DAL -1.1
83 7 QB8 Tom Brady TB -1.1
84 7 RB30 Zack Moss BUF -1.2
85 7 QB9 Drew Brees NO -1.3
86 7 WR37 Diontae Johnson PIT -1.4
87 7 RB31 J.K. Dobbins BAL -1.4
88 8 TE11 Jared Cook NO -1.5
89 8 WR38 Anthony Miller CHI -1.5
90 8 TE12 Rob Gronkowski TB -1.5
91 8 TE13 Chris Herndon NYJ -1.5
92 8 WR39 Curtis Samuel CAR -1.5
93 8 WR40 Michael Pittman Jr. IND -1.5
94 8 RB32 Phillip Lindsay DEN -1.5
95 8 WR41 Christian Kirk ARI -1.6
96 8 WR42 Jamison Crowder NYJ -1.6
97 8 WR43 Jalen Reagor PHI -1.6
98 8 WR44 Julian Edelman NE -1.6
99 8 TE14 Jonnu Smith TEN -1.6
100 8 TE15 Mike Gesicki MIA -1.6
101 8 WR45 Golden Tate NYG -1.6
102 8 WR46 Henry Ruggs III LV -1.7
103 8 TE16 Noah Fant DEN -1.7
104 9 WR47 Emmanuel Sanders NO -1.9
105 9 TE17 O.J. Howard TB -2.0
106 9 QB10 Josh Allen BUF -2.0
107 9 TE18 Eric Ebron PIT -2.0
108 9 TE19 Dallas Goedert PHI -2.1
109 9 QB11 Matt Ryan ATL -2.2
110 9 WR48 Parris Campbell IND -2.2
111 9 WR49 Sterling Shepard NYG -2.2
112 9 RB33 Tarik Cohen CHI -2.2
113 9 QB12 Matthew Stafford DET -2.3
114 9 WR50 Jerry Jeudy DEN -2.3
115 9 TE20 Irv Smith MIN -2.3
116 9 RB34 Marlon Mack IND -2.3
117 9 RB35 James White NE -2.4
118 9 WR51 Deebo Samuel SF -2.4
119 10 RB36 Devin Singletary BUF -2.5
120 10 WR52 DeSean Jackson PHI -2.5
121 10 RB37 Matt Breida MIA -2.6
122 10 WR53 Darius Slayton NYG -2.6
123 10 WR54 Preston Williams MIA -2.6
124 10 TE21 Blake Jarwin DAL -2.7
125 10 RB38 Jordan Howard MIA -2.7
126 10 TE22 Greg Olsen SEA -2.8
127 10 WR55 John Brown BUF -2.8
128 10 WR56 Bryan Edwards LV -2.9
129 10 QB13 Daniel Jones NYG -2.9
130 10 WR57 Justin Jefferson MIN -2.9
131 10 WR58 Randall Cobb HOU -3.0
132 10 TE23 Austin Hooper CLE -3.0
133 10 WR59 Mecole Hardman KC -3.0
134 10 QB14 Ben Roethlisberger PIT -3.0
135 11 TE24 Gerald Everett LAR -3.1
136 11 QB15 Aaron Rodgers GB -3.1
137 11 WR60 Allen Lazard GB -3.1
138 11 TE25 Tyler Eifert JAC -3.5
139 11 QB16 Baker Mayfield CLE -3.5
140 11 RB39 Boston Scott PHI -3.6
141 11 WR61 Mike Williams LAC -3.6
142 11 RB40 Latavius Murray NO -3.6
143 11 TE26 Ian Thomas CAR -3.6
144 12 TE27 Jace Sternberger GB -3.7
145 12 WR62 Larry Fitzgerald ARI -3.7
146 12 WR63 Steven Sims WAS -3.7
147 12 RB41 Adrian Peterson WAS -3.7
148 12 RB42 Kerryon Johnson DET -3.8
149 12 WR64 Brandon Aiyuk SF -3.8
150 12 QB17 Joe Burrow CIN -3.8
151 12 QB18 Ryan Tannehill TEN -3.8
152 12 RB43 Alexander Mattison MIN -3.8
153 12 TE28 Jack Doyle IND -3.9
154 12 WR65 Robby Anderson CAR -3.9
155 12 RB44 Duke Johnson HOU -3.9
156 12 RB45 Chase Edmonds ARI -3.9
157 12 QB19 Cam Newton NE -4.1
158 12 RB46 Damien Harris NE -4.1
159 13 WR66 Hunter Renfrow LV -4.2
160 13 RB47 AJ Dillon GB -4.3
161 13 RB48 Tevin Coleman SF -4.4
162 13 QB20 Jared Goff LAR -4.5
163 13 WR67 Sammy Watkins KC -4.6
164 13 RB49 Darrel Williams KC -4.8
165 13 RB50 Antonio Gibson WAS -4.8
166 13 WR68 Dede Westbrook JAC -4.8
167 13 QB21 Gardner Minshew JAC -4.9
168 14 WR69 James Washington PIT -5.0
169 14 TE29 Dan Arnold ARI -5.0
170 14 QB22 Jimmy Garoppolo SF -5.0
171 14 WR70 Cole Beasley BUF -5.0
172 14 RB51 Jerick McKinnon SF -5.0
173 14 QB23 Kirk Cousins MIN -5.1
174 14 QB24 Philip Rivers IND -5.1
175 14 RB52 Tony Pollard DAL -5.3
176 14 WR71 Laviska Shenault JAC -5.3
177 14 QB25 Derek Carr LV -5.3
178 14 WR72 Trent Taylor SF -5.3
179 14 WR73 Breshad Perriman NYJ -5.4
180 14 WR74 Corey Davis TEN -5.5
181 14 TE30 Dawson Knox BUF -5.5
182 14 WR75 Tee Higgins CIN -5.5
183 14 WR76 Mohamed Sanu NE -5.5
184 14 QB26 Tyrod Taylor LAC -5.6
185 14 RB53 Nyheim Hines IND -5.6
186 14 QB27 Teddy Bridgewater CAR -5.7
187 14 RB54 Joshua Kelley LAC -5.7
188 14 RB55 Darrell Henderson LAR -5.7
189 14 RB56 Chris Thompson JAC -5.8
190 15 WR77 Russell Gage ATL -6.0
191 15 WR78 N'Keal Harry NE -6.2
192 15 RB57 LeSean McCoy TB -6.3
193 15 RB58 Bryce Love WAS -6.4
194 15 WR79 Kendrick Bourne SF -6.5
195 15 QB28 Drew Lock DEN -6.7
196 15 WR80 Denzel Mims NYJ -6.8
197 15 WR81 Alshon Jeffery PHI -7.0
198 15 RB59 Darrynton Evans TEN -7.1
199 15 RB60 Justin Jackson LAC -7.5
200 15 RB61 Benny Snell PIT -7.7


PPR Big Board | Non-PPR Big Board | SuperFlex


Doug Orth has written for FF Today since 2006 and been featured in USA TODAY's Fantasy Football Preview magazine since 2010. He is also a high-stakes player who often appears as a guest analyst on a number of national sports radio shows, such as Sirius XM's "Fantasy Drive." Doug is also a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association.