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Top 175 Big Board, Non-PPR: Version 1.0


Preseason Matchup Analysis

By Doug Orth | 8/18/20 |
PPR | Half-Point PPR | Non-PPR

Football is simple at its very core but a very complex game to evaluate and analyze because 11 men are being asked to work in harmony approximately 60 times per game, while 11 other men are being asked to disrupt that harmony. Pro football is not pro basketball in that a team can clear out one side of the court when things break down and the offense can still score. Pro football is not pro baseball in that one player can defeat a pitcher and eight fielders by timing his swing just right. Even as great as Barry Sanders was, he never beat a defense all by himself. In football, every player needs some help to accomplish his goal. That is part of what makes football so great and part of what makes it so highly unpredictable. The violence of the game - even by the tamer standards in this day and age - adds another element to the equation that is difficult to quantify.

Regardless, it doesn't mean we shouldn't try. Over the last month, I have evaluated the weekly matchups for 500-plus players. Analyzing matchups alone requires me to make 7,500 "decisions". This is not meant to be a humble brag. Each year, my goal is to give those who put their faith in my evaluations the confidence they have the best draft-day tool at their disposal. I like to think that even if readers believe my logic is flawed for whatever reason, they can count on the fact that much thought has been put into that opinion.

How much thought, you ask?

For example, Michael Gallup lined up on the left side of the formation 456 times, on the right side 292 times and in the slot 96 times last year. Since the majority of defensive coordinators tend to have their cornerbacks stick to one side as opposed to following a particular receiver, Gallup's ability to match up and defeat each of the defensive backs in those spots should/needs to be considered. I do that for each player who projects to stand inside the top three of his team's depth chart, and all of that information is factored into my projections. While how often Gallup lines up in a certain spot will inevitably be different from last year, it's unlikely his role as Dallas' "X" receiver will change under second-year OC Kellen Moore.

Fantasy football is a stock market game, and our job as analysts is identifying when stocks may be poised for an increase or ready to tank. While last year's results help fantasy owners/analysts set the table for the following season, they are merely a starting point. Fantasy rankings and drafting need to be predictive, not reactive. This is the approach I have taken for more than 10 years. While some of the processes have changed in that time, the main goal has not.

The Success Score Index (SSI) below is powered in large part by my target and carry predictions that have been featured in this space over the last two weeks. As always, the matchups are included in the algorithm. SSI allows me to compare apples to oranges across positions. Perhaps just as importantly, I have been able to eliminate most of the guesswork across different scoring systems (PPR, standard, etc.).

For all of those unfamiliar with my Big Boards, allow me to explain the color-coding system before we start:

Red For lower-level players, a red matchup is the most difficult one a player can face. For a second- or third-tier player, drop your expectations for them at least one grade that week (i.e. from WR2 to WR3). For elite players, expect them to perform one level lower than their usual status (i.e. RB1 performs like an RB2).

Yellow For lower-level players, he is a borderline start at best. For a second- or third-tier player, the slight edge goes to the defense in what is essentially a toss-up. For the elite players, expect slightly better than average production.

White This one can go either way, but I favor the player over the matchup. In some cases, I just don’t feel like I have a good feel yet for this matchup. Generally speaking, these matchups are winnable for all levels of players.

Green For non-elite players, the stage is set for a player to have a productive day. For the elite player, this matchup could produce special numbers.

Note: Players with a next to their name have some degree of injury/character/holdout concern.

Over the next two weeks, I will release my first Big Boards for superflex, 0.5 PPR and standard leagues as well as The Fantasy Championship (TFC) and FFPC Big Boards. In the second and final round of Big Boards near the end of the preseason, I will rank at least 200 players and present my final rankings for kickers and defense/special teams.

Here is the scoring system that I used to rank the players in the Non-PPR format:

 Non-PPR Big Board - Top 175
Rank Pos Player Tm Age SSI 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
1 RB Christian McCaffrey CAR 24 8.3
2 RB Saquon Barkley NYG 23 7.8
3 RB Alvin Kamara NO 25 6.2
4 RB Ezekiel Elliott DAL 25 5.8
5 RB Derrick Henry TEN 26 5.4
6 RB Dalvin Cook MIN 25 4.9
7 RB Miles Sanders PHI 23 4.8
8 RB Josh Jacobs LV 22 4.7
9 RB Joe Mixon CIN 24 4.4
10 WR Davante Adams GB 27 4.1
11 RB Nick Chubb CLE 24 3.4
12 RB Kenyan Drake ARI 26 3.4
13 TE Travis Kelce KC 30 3.1
14 WR Tyreek Hill KC 26 3.1
15 RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire KC 21 2.9
16 TE George Kittle SF 26 2.9
17 WR Michael Thomas NO 27 2.8
18 WR Julio Jones ATL 31 2.6
19 QB Patrick Mahomes KC 24 2.5
20 RB Aaron Jones GB 25 2.5
21 WR Chris Godwin TB 24 2.5
22 WR Mike Evans TB 26 2.2
23 RB Jonathan Taylor IND 21 2.1
24 WR A.J. Brown TEN 23 2.1
25 QB Lamar Jackson BAL 23 1.9
26 WR Odell Beckham Jr. CLE 27 1.9
27 RB Austin Ekeler LAC 25 1.8
28 RB Chris Carson SEA 25 1.7
29 WR Kenny Golladay DET 26 1.6
30 WR DeAndre Hopkins ARI 28 1.6
31 TE Mark Andrews BAL 24 1.6
32 TE Zach Ertz PHI 29 1.3
33 WR DeVante Parker MIA 27 1.2
34 WR Calvin Ridley ATL 25 1.1
35 WR Allen Robinson CHI 26 1.1
36 RB James Conner PIT 25 1.1
37 WR JuJu Smith-Schuster PIT 23 1.0
38 WR Tyler Lockett SEA 27 0.9
39 TE Darren Waller LV 27 0.9
40 RB Leonard Fournette JAC 25 0.8
41 WR Adam Thielen MIN 29 0.7
42 WR D.J. Moore CAR 23 0.7
43 RB Melvin Gordon DEN 27 0.6
44 TE Evan Engram NYG 25 0.5
45 RB Mark Ingram BAL 30 0.4
46 QB Dak Prescott DAL 27 0.4
47 WR Amari Cooper DAL 26 0.4
48 WR Robert Woods LAR 28 0.4
49 TE Hayden Hurst ATL 26 0.3
50 RB Raheem Mostert SF 28 0.2
51 RB David Johnson HOU 28 0.1
52 WR Marquise Brown BAL 23 0.0
53 RB Todd Gurley ATL 26 -0.1
54 WR DK Metcalf SEA 22 -0.1
55 WR Terry McLaurin WAS 24 -0.2
56 RB Ronald Jones TB 23 -0.2
57 WR A.J. Green CIN 32 -0.2
58 QB Russell Wilson SEA 31 -0.3
59 WR Courtland Sutton DEN 24 -0.3
60 WR D.J. Chark JAC 23 -0.3
61 WR Cooper Kupp LAR 27 -0.3
62 RB David Montgomery CHI 23 -0.3
63 WR Jarvis Landry CLE 27 -0.4
64 QB Deshaun Watson HOU 24 -0.4
65 QB Kyler Murray ARI 23 -0.5
66 QB Carson Wentz PHI 27 -0.5
67 TE Jared Cook NO 33 -0.5
68 WR Tyler Boyd CIN 25 -0.6
69 RB Le'Veon Bell NYJ 28 -0.9
70 WR Michael Gallup DAL 24 -0.9
71 WR Keenan Allen LAC 28 -0.9
72 RB J.K. Dobbins BAL 21 -1.0
73 WR Stefon Diggs BUF 26 -1.0
74 TE Tyler Higbee LAR 27 -1.1
75 TE Hunter Henry LAC 25 -1.1
76 WR CeeDee Lamb DAL 21 -1.2
77 WR Will Fuller HOU 26 -1.4
78 WR T.Y. Hilton IND 30 -1.4
79 WR Michael Pittman Jr. IND 22 -1.4
80 QB Drew Brees NO 41 -1.5
81 WR Marvin Jones DET 30 -1.5
82 RB Cam Akers LAR 21 -1.6
83 WR Brandin Cooks HOU 26 -1.6
84 RB Kareem Hunt CLE 25 -1.6
85 RB D'Andre Swift DET 21 -1.7
86 TE Jonnu Smith TEN 24 -1.7
87 TE Chris Herndon NYJ 24 -1.7
88 QB Tom Brady TB 43 -1.7
89 WR Curtis Samuel CAR 24 -1.7
90 WR Diontae Johnson PIT 24 -1.8
91 WR Henry Ruggs III LV 21 -1.8
92 TE O.J. Howard TB 25 -1.7
93 TE Mike Gesicki MIA 24 -1.8
94 TE Noah Fant DEN 22 -1.8
95 TE Rob Gronkowski TB 31 -1.8
96 TE Eric Ebron PIT 27 -1.9
97 TE Dallas Goedert PHI 26 -1.9
98 TE T.J. Hockenson DET 23 -2.0
99 WR Emmanuel Sanders NO 33 -2.0
100 WR Anthony Miller CHI 25 -2.0
101 RB Zack Moss BUF 22 -2.1
102 WR Jamison Crowder NYJ 27 -2.2
103 WR Parris Campbell IND 23 -2.2
104 QB Matt Ryan ATL 35 -2.2
105 QB Matthew Stafford DET 32 -2.3
106 WR Julian Edelman NE 34 -2.3
107 TE Blake Jarwin DAL 26 -2.3
108 WR Christian Kirk ARI 23 -2.4
109 WR Golden Tate NYG 32 -2.5
110 TE Jace Sternberger GB 24 -2.6
111 WR Jerry Jeudy DEN 21 -2.6
112 WR Jalen Reagor PHI 21 -2.7
113 WR Justin Jefferson MIN 21 -2.7
114 TE Gerald Everett LAR 26 -2.7
115 WR DeSean Jackson PHI 33 -2.7
116 TE Irv Smith MIN 22 -2.7
117 QB Daniel Jones NYG 23 -2.8
118 WR John Brown BUF 30 -2.9
119 WR Mecole Hardman KC 22 -2.9
120 RB Phillip Lindsay DEN 26 -2.9
121 TE Greg Olsen SEA 35 -2.9
122 QB Josh Allen BUF 24 -3.0
123 QB Aaron Rodgers GB 36 -3.0
124 RB Jordan Howard MIA 25 -3.0
125 WR Deebo Samuel SF 24 -3.0
126 QB Ben Roethlisberger PIT 38 -3.2
127 RB Devin Singletary BUF 22 -3.2
128 RB Marlon Mack IND 24 -3.2
129 WR Mike Williams LAC 25 -3.3
130 TE Tyler Eifert JAC 29 -3.4
131 RB Adrian Peterson WAS 35 -3.4
132 WR Sterling Shepard NYG 27 -3.5
133 TE Austin Hooper CLE 25 -3.5
134 WR Allen Lazard GB 24 -3.6
135 RB James White NE 28 -3.6
136 RB Sony Michel NE 25 -3.7
137 QB Cam Newton NE 31 -3.7
138 TE Jack Doyle IND 30 -3.8
139 WR Steven Sims WAS 23 -3.8
140 WR Randall Cobb HOU 29 -3.8
141 RB Matt Breida MIA 25 -3.8
142 TE Ian Thomas CAR 24 -3.8
143 WR Preston Williams MIA 23 -3.8
144 RB Tevin Coleman SF 27 -3.9
145 WR Larry Fitzgerald ARI 36 -3.9
146 WR Robby Anderson CAR 27 -3.9
147 WR Darius Slayton NYG 23 -3.9
148 QB Baker Mayfield CLE 25 -4.0
149 QB Ryan Tannehill TEN 32 -4.0
150 RB Tarik Cohen CHI 25 -4.1
151 WR Sammy Watkins KC 27 -4.3
152 RB Alexander Mattison MIN 22 -4.3
153 WR James Washington PIT 24 -4.3
154 QB Jared Goff LAR 25 -4.4
155 QB Joe Burrow CIN 23 -4.5
156 WR John Ross CIN 24 -4.5
157 RB Kerryon Johnson DET 23 -4.5
158 WR Brandon Aiyuk SF 22 -4.5
159 QB Jimmy Garoppolo SF 28 -4.6
160 TE Dawson Knox BUF 23 -4.7
161 RB Duke Johnson HOU 26 -4.8
162 WR Dede Westbrook JAC 26 -4.8
163 WR Breshad Perriman NYJ 26 -5.0
164 RB Boston Scott PHI 25 -5.0
165 RB Latavius Murray NO 30 -5.0
166 WR Laviska Shenault Jr. JAC 21 -5.1
167 WR Bryan Edwards LV 21 -5.1
168 WR Tee Higgins CIN 21 -5.1
169 RB Tony Pollard DAL 23 -5.2
170 RB Jerick McKinnon SF 28 -5.3
171 WR Mohamed Sanu NE 30 -5.4
172 RB AJ Dillon GB 22 -6.4
173 RB Bryce Love WAS 23 -6.4
174 RB LeSean McCoy TB 32 -6.5
175 RB Antonio Gibson WAS 22 -7.1


PPR Big Board | Half-Pt PPR Big Board





Doug Orth has written for FF Today since 2006 and been featured in USA TODAY's Fantasy Football Preview magazine since 2010. He is also a high-stakes player who often appears as a guest analyst on a number of national sports radio shows, such as Sirius XM's "Fantasy Drive." Doug is also a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association.