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Fantasy Football Strategy, Advice, and Commentary |
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 By: Tony Nowak — March 1, 2011 @ 11:10 am
 The offense wrapped up their tests and drills at the NFL Scouting Combine over the weekend. Let’s review some of the highlights at the top three fantasy positions.
Quarterbacks
Instead of outright denial regarding the rampant drug allegations, which have yet to remotely demonstrate having a reliable source, Ryan Mallett chose to take the “no comment” route and say that teams “know what they need to know” from him. That righteous indignation unfortunately leaves the door open for the interpretation that he is hiding something, which is what most pundits assumed and then panned him for. However, he put on a clinic with his passing, and he was universally praised for it. I mentioned in my first mock in an earlier blog post, he did nothing but improve on the field last season, and until there proves to be any modicum of truth to these rumors about him, there’s no reason to downgrade him. Jake Locker also threw very well and, as expected, tested brilliantly. In addition to Mallett and Locker doing well, Christian Ponder was excellent in drills and built on a great Senior Bowl, continuing to elevate his stock as the forearm injury that hampered his 2010 season heals. Also impressive throwing was Josh Portis, who I highlighted in the previous blog post. He is shaping up to be the John Skelton of this class—the small-school guy who goes later in the mid-rounds with buzz of being an appealing developmental third-stringer.
As predicted in my Combine Preview, none of the excellent athletes in this quarterback class disappointed in tests. Throwing the ball was another story. After demonstrating great athleticism in the tests, Cam Newton was less impressive spinning the ball in drills. He didn’t necessarily hurt his draft stock, but he also didn’t lock down the case to be a top three pick, which some thought he might do this weekend. Blaine Gabbert tested well athletically but, as expected, did not throw at the Combine and was the only quarterback not to do so. Despite reports of disgruntled team personnel and the competitive questions it raises, this philosophy has proven to be a non-factor for top prospects. Gabbert seems to remain the clubhouse leader as the consensus top quarterback prospect coming out of the Combine. But it’s a close competition, so he’d better impress while throwing at his Pro Day on March 17th.
Running Backs
After a breakout 2008 season with Maryland, Da’Rel Scott was sidelined for most of the 2009 season and ended up in a RBBC in 2010. However, he ended the season with a big performance in the Military Bowl and then had a nice showing at the Senior Bowl as a late addition to replace the injured Daniel Thomas. Scott continued his positive momentum with some great test results at the Combine, including a 4.34 40-yard dash, the fastest official time turned in by any player over the weekend. He isn’t a very elusive runner and he likes to bounce outside despite his good size, but he is a quality receiver and his elite speed will move him up draft boards. Scott has a track background, which makes the results of the second fastest running back, Mario Fannin, even more surprising. Fannin ran a 4.38 despite being, at 231 pounds, one of the biggest backs. He was very athletic and looked good in drills and is now another riser coming out of the combine. Derrick Locke was right up there with a 4.40 time, and he looked very fluid in drills. Unlike some backs, his timed speed translates to his game speed. He is another guy who continues to build on the momentum of a strong Senior Bowl.
DeMarco Murray surprised me with his 4.41 time. He came into Oklahoma as a burner, but after a litany of injuries, his game seemed less about speed and more well-rounded in 2010. Murray showed he still has home-run speed and may have put himself back into the top tier of running back prospects. However, Daniel Thomas remains out of it for me because he chose not to workout, saying that he is still rehabbing the hamstring injury that also kept him out of the Senior Bowl. I have big questions about his speed and athleticism, and he’s one guy I’m not sold yet as a top-tier prospect. The other consensus top prospects slightly disappointed in the speed department: Mark Ingram, Mikel Leshoure, and Ryan Williams all landed right around 4.60. Except for Williams, their times weren’t a surprise, but better ones would have helped. I thought Williams had more speed, but both he and Leshoure showed good athleticism in other tests. Williams looked very good in the drills. Leshoure showed he is what he is—a north-south power runner lacking agility and elusiveness.
We’ll have a better idea of how to interpret 40 times when the 10-yard splits come out on these guys. That measure of burst is just as important. Ingram reportedly clocked an excellent 1.53. Delone Carter, Roy Helu Jr., and Dion Lewis also helped themselves with good tests and performances in drills. Jordan Todman surprised by coming in at just over 200 pounds, but showed no loss of speed (4.40) or athleticism. I was disappointed that Bilal Powell did not work out. I couldn’t find the reason why. He is coming off an impressive Senior Bowl, and he may have torpedoed his momentum if his absence was not related to an injury. The most disappointed guy in this group has to be John Clay. After topping out at 268 coming off ankle surgeries last spring, and reportedly playing around 250, he was down to 230 at the combine in hopes of showing more speed and athleticism. That became an epic fail when he turned in the worst 40 time in the running back group, barely breaking 4.90. He also has surprisingly small hands—a minor issue, but just another negative about a guy who once was thought to be the next Brandon Jacobs.
Wide Receivers
A pair of small school (DII) guys turned in the fastest times over the weekend, with Ricardo Lockette and Edmond Gates both clocking an official time of 4.37 in the 40-yard dash. Gates ran it with a visibly bothersome groin injury that eventually caused him to pull out of some other workouts. In addition to his great 40 time, Lockette looked good catching the ball as well, showing he is clearly not just a track guy playing football. Julio Jones was the only other receiver to post a sub-4.4 and had one of the best all-around performances by anyone over the weekend. His 11’3” broad jump was just shy of a combine record, and he had a very good 38.5” vertical and a solid—for a wideout—17 reps on the bench. In the drills, Jones looked smooth for the most part and caught the ball well. He solidified his status as a first-round pick. A.J. Green also looked good in the drills (although he has some drops) and came away with some nice test results: a solid 4.50 40, 18 reps on the bench, and a 10’6” broad jump were the highlights. Jonathan Baldwin helped himself with fantastic testing and good hands in drills. He’s back in the first-round discussion, if he had ever left it.
Leonard Hankerson, on the other hand, was a mixed bag. He was eaten alive by the gauntlet drill (several throwers firing balls at you from alternating sides every few strides—you catch and drop and then look for the next, running as fast as you can). But he surprised people with an excellent 4.43 time in the 40. I like him a lot at the top of the second tier of wide receiver prospects. The duo from Boise State disappointed a bit, as Titus Young didn’t have the elite speed expected and was average in drills, while Austin Pettis showed less speed than expected, both timed and in drills, although he did look good running routes. Torrey Smith was plenty fast, although not as fast as former teammate Darrius Heyward-Bey, but his hands looked disappointingly similar with some bad drops. Randall Cobb was fast and caught the ball very well. He helped himself a lot and looks like a prototypical slot receiver. Terrence Toliver and Tori Gurley showed great hands but little burst or deep speed. They’re a couple of big possession receivers. Niles Paul had a good combination of test and drill performances, but he’s built more like a running back than a receiver.
By: Tony Nowak — February 21, 2011 @ 10:31 am
The National Invitation Combine (NIC), better known as the NFL Combine, starts this Wednesday (2/23) and runs through the following Tuesday (3/1). 330 NFL prospects eligible to be drafted (276 seniors and 54 underclassmen) will be interviewed, measured, poked, prodded and workout in Indianapolis. North Carolina will be the represented the most, with 12 players receiving invites. The full official list of invitees can be found here. Media are not allowed in the actual workout sessions, so you can see exactly the same coverage they will be writing about on the NFL Network. The complete schedule of the network’s coverage can be found here.
Workouts to Watch
Here are some of the players whose overall workouts, or at least a specific event, will be must-see TV for draftniks.
Dontay Moch, OLB/DE, Nevada – perhaps no event at the Combine, for purely entertainment purposes, is more highly anticipated than Moch’s 40-yard dash. The BLESTO and National report from last spring (for an explanation of those two scouting services, draftdaddy.com has an excellent summary in this article) had the undersized DE (built more like a big RB at just under 6’2” and 230 pounds) with a 4.25 time. The lore already building is that he initially ran a 4.18 and was asked to run again, because no one believed it could be accurate when he posted the “verified” time. However, Nevada is considered a “fast track”, so there is some belief he and their other players are unlikely to live up to some of the high expectations for speed.
Stephen Paea, DT, Oregon – a torn right lateral meniscus at the Senior Bowl should prevent us from seeing his full range of amazing athletic ability, but if he can still bench, that will be another sideshow people are looking forward to. With a personal best of 44 reps of 225 pounds, he is regarded as the best threat to the Combine record of 51.
Noel Devine, RB, West Virginia – after a disappointing season, the outlook isn’t good for the smallest and lightest player in the draft, but he is one of the favorites to turn in the top overall 40-yard dash time.
Patrick Peterson, CB, LSU – one of the top overall athletes in the draft has a father who is a professional speed coach; think he’ll be prepared?
Allen Bailey, DL, Miami – his chiseled body impressed at the Senior Bowl weigh-in, but he continued to fail to standout on the field. He reportedly power cleans 400 pounds, squats 570 pounds and bench presses 405 with a 39-inch vertical and a 4.65 40-yard dash. When UM strength coach Andreu Swasey calls someone the most freakish athlete he’s seen in his decade on a team that has produced more than a few of them, that is quite a statement.
Nate Solder, OT, Colorado – standing over a verified 6’8”, the converted TE is a man-mountain who is expected to be this year’s Bruce Campbell when he workouts. While still a project, he is rated significantly higher than Campbell (who ended up a fourth-round pick) heading in to the Combine.
Virgil Green, TE, Nevada – Tony Pauline of TFY Draft Insiders and Sports Illustrated reports here that Green could come close to turning in the same kind of amazing performance by a TE that Vernon Davis did in 2006.
Tyron Smith, OT, USC – the biggest mistake on most mock drafts I see is no offensive tackle being projected in the first half of the draft. The position is too important. There is a good collection of solid prospects that look like late first through second round picks, and while I agree it is hard to differentiate them now, one or two will inevitably emerge out of the Combine. As an underclassman who hasn’t gotten an opportunity yet for more exposure in the senior all-star games, Smith could be one of the risers. He reportedly is up over 300 pounds (he played at around 285, which was a concern) and supposedly hasn’t lost any athleticism. If true, he’ll gain some separation from the pack coming out of the Combine.
Torrey Smith, WR, Maryland – lost among some of the big names in the draft, the underclassmen is expected to impress with his speed, like former teammate Darrius Heyward-Bey. Unlike DHB, Smith can catch and is looking to sneak in to the late first round for a team looking for a deep threat.
The Quarterbacks – despite the race being wide open to be the first QB selected, it sounds like, as usual, most of the top prospects won’t be throwing (although Jake Locker reportedly will). That’s a bit disappointing, but the good news there is an unusually high number of great all-around athletes in this QB class. Locker, Cam Newton, Blaine Gabbert, Colin Kaepernick, Tyrod Taylor, Christian Ponder, and Josh Portis could all log some explosion, speed, and agility numbers in tests that look more like they belong to running backs than quarterbacks. Portis is a guy I’m especially interested in. A cousin of Clinton Portis, he was Urban Meyer’s first recruit at Florida, then transferred to Maryland, but was ineligible and ended up at DII California (PA). He didn’t show much in the NFLPA All-Star Game, but he has the size and is supposedly is an excellent runner with a live arm.
Small School Guys – there are always a few small school guys who breakthrough with impressive workouts at the Combine and end up mid-round picks. Nobody follows them like Josh Buchanan, so I’ll just direct you to the article on his website about who to watch out for at the Combine.
By: Tony Nowak — February 16, 2011 @ 2:04 pm
 Before deciding to return to school, Stanford quarterback Andrew Luck was considered a lock to be the first player selected in 2011 NFL Draft. A quarterback being selected first would be no surprise, as the prevailing mentality is that the worst team in the league must find a shiny new college quarterback to energize the franchise. In fact, eight of the last ten drafts have begun with one being selected. What would have been unusual, however, was that Luck was just a third-year sophomore.
Players just three years removed for their high school graduation have been eligible to petition to enter the NFL draft only since 1990 (previously the league had required four years). And the only redshirt sophomore drafted first overall was Michael Vick, ten years ago. While Luck won’t be joining the draft this year, the top quarterback prospects jockeying to be first-round picks are still primarily underclassmen. The lone senior prospect is Washington quarterback Jake Locker, who many believed would have challenged Sam Bradford last year as the first overall pick if he had declared early for the 2010 draft. However, after an injury-plagued and inconsistent senior season, Locker is no longer the favorite to be even the first quarterback selected.
 Gabbert will be one of the first QBs taken in the 2011 draft. A trio of underclassmen whose stock ascended through autumn are now in the discussion. Super-sized Arkansas junior Ryan Mallett continued his successful development on the field, and although exaggerated rumors of character concerns have him falling with pundits and draftniks, his potential should keep him from falling very far. With some help from the overhype machine in Bristol, Missouri’s Blaine Gabbert became the initial favorite to replace Luck as the first quarterback selected, but the new flavor of the week is Auburn junior Cam Newton after he impressed the media with his workout commercial recently. An undefeated regular season, a Heisman Trophy, a national championship, and a propagandistic, made-for-media workout later, it’s easy to forget that Newton was a JUCO transfer and hardly on the 2011 NFL radar just months ago.
It is unusual for so many underclassmen quarterbacks to be considered top prospects. Only four times in the last 20 years has the first round seen more than one selected at the position. Presumably, much of this can be attributed to the conventional wisdom that a quarterback is already a historically risky proposition to spend a first-round pick on, and underclassmen are even more of a gamble. They have less experience and often lack the mental and emotional maturity to succeed quickly. Legendary coach Bill Parcells had guidelines based on that perspective for evaluating the position. They were broken down into four “rules” for drafting quarterbacks. As explained by K.C. Joyner in an article on ESPN.com last year, Parcells’ picks had to (1) be a three-year starter, (2) lead team to at least 23 victories, (3) be a senior, and (4) be a college graduate. The first three criteria deal with those experience and maturity aspects, but the last goes deeper. Graduation may seem redundant, or possibly unnecessary, in lieu of the rest of the list, but it actually adds another dimension—the dedication and focus to achieve a long-term goal.
Two years ago, another trio of underclassmen quarterbacks were all on their way to being first round picks. Before that draft, Vic Carucci of NFL.com wrote an article analyzing the recent history of underclassmen quarterbacks and demonstrated their higher risk through empirical evidence. Let’s update his chart since then (amending an error in the omission of Aaron Rodgers on his list) and revisit the discussion of drafting an underclassmen quarterback in the first round.
| Underclassmen QBs Drafted in 1st Round 1990-2010 |
| Draft |
Name |
# |
Team |
School |
| 2009 |
Matthew Stafford |
1 |
Lions |
Georgia |
| 2009 |
Mark Sanchez |
5 |
Jets |
USC |
| 2009 |
Josh Freeman |
17 |
Buccaneers |
Kansas State |
| 2007 |
JaMarcus Russell |
1 |
Raiders |
LSU |
| 2006 |
Vince Young |
3 |
Titans |
Texas |
| 2005 |
Alex Smith |
1 |
49ers |
Utah |
| 2005 |
Aaron Rodgers |
24 |
Packers |
California |
| 2004 |
Ben Roethlisberger |
11 |
Steelers |
Miami (Ohio) |
| 2003 |
Rex Grossman |
22 |
Bears |
Florida |
| 2001 |
Michael Vick* |
1 |
Falcons |
Virginia Tech |
| 1999 |
Tim Couch |
1 |
Browns |
Kentucky |
| 1998 |
Ryan Leaf |
2 |
Chargers |
Washington State |
| 1994 |
Heath Shuler |
3 |
Redskins |
Tennessee |
| 1994 |
Trent Dilfer |
6 |
Buccaneers |
Fresno State |
| 1993 |
Drew Bledsoe |
1 |
Patriots |
Washington State |
| 1992 |
Tommy Maddox* |
25 |
Broncos |
UCLA |
| 1991 |
Todd Marinovich* |
24 |
Raiders |
USC |
| 1990 |
Jeff George |
1 |
Colts |
Illinois |
| 1990 |
Andre Ware |
7 |
Lions |
Houston |
| * Third-year sophomore |
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A record three underclassmen quarterbacks drafted in the first round of 2009 ratcheted up the sample set. As this is a copycat league, their progress in the last two years will likely have a proportionally greater influence on the decisions of front offices this year than further back. Injuries have impeded the beginning of Stafford’s career, but the results and leadership when he has played have been promising for an organization beginning to turn things around after years of futility. While Sanchez still shows inconsistency week-to-week, he led a stacked club deep into a conference championship for the second straight season. Finally, Freeman’s progress in his second season has been tremendous, and the future looks brighter as he grows with a young core of promising skill players around him. Going back a few more years, you find Roethlisberger and Rodgers, who have won three of the last six Super Bowls. While cautionary tales like JaMarcus Russell remain out there, limiting the scope of that list to more recent history shows that taking an underclassman at quarterback has produced more beneficial results than in the past. The poster boys for the maturity concern are Michael Vick and Vince Young. Vick initially helped Atlanta and has triumphantly returned playing elsewhere, but was that middling success worth the price of Vick’s transgressions and the lack of long-term return for the Falcons? Similarly for Young, he may ultimately find sustained success, but it won’t be for Tennessee, and his problems contributed to costing a head coach his job.
One thing is obvious, Parcells’ criteria is oversimplified for today’s league. As college football has evolved into a big business, with teams employing complex NFL offenses and the pressure to win being immense, the learning curve and timeline to mature has sped up for these young men. And enough have quickly achieved success in the NFL to dispel at least one notion: An underclassman quarterback is no more of a risk as a first-round pick than a senior graduate.
By: Tony Nowak — February 8, 2011 @ 9:27 am
Round 1
Note: Listed by pick, team, player, position and college. Underclassmen indicated by a single asterisk (*) for juniors and a double asterisk (**) for third-year sophomores.
1. Carolina Panthers – Nick Fairley, DT, Auburn*
With Andrew Luck returning to Stanford, the Panthers select a DT with the top overall pick for the first time since 1994. The Lombardi Award winner culminated his incredible rise this season with an MVP performance in Auburn’s national championship victory.
2. Denver Broncos – Patrick Peterson, CB, LSU*
Defensive line may be a bigger need, but Peterson is unique talent as a big corner with speed who is a playmaker on defense and as a returner in the mold of Charles Woodson. The potential departure of Champ Bailey in free agency could make this a need pick, as well.
3. Buffalo Bills – Da’Quan Bowers, DE, Clemson*
Head coach Chan Gailey seems impressed enough with QB Ryan Fitzpatrick to instead use this pick to address the struggling defense. An impressive physical specimen, Bowers finally put it all together on the field, leading all FBS schools with 15.5 sacks and second with 26 tackles for loss.
4. Cincinnati Bengals – A.J. Green, WR, Georgia*
With Terrell Owens gone and Chad Ochocinco possibly following him, the Bengals add perhaps the most talented overall prospect in the draft to play opposite emerging WR Jerome Simpson. If Carson Palmer actually does get traded, we could see the first QB off the board here instead.
5. Arizona Cardinals – Von Miller, OLB, Texas A&M
After being limited by an ankle injury early in the season, the 2009 FBS sack leader was back to terrorizing quarterbacks as the year closed. Ryan Mallett may remind head coach Ken Whisenhunt of another super-sized QB who he helped develop as the offensive coordinator in Pittsburgh, but this division is winnable if the Cardinals bring in a veteran starter.
6. Cleveland Browns – Robert Quinn, DE, North Carolina*
A brain tumor in high school and missing this past season as part of the agent scandal that rocked the UNC program make him a risky pick. However, the freakish athleticism and ability, reminiscent of another former Tar Heel, Julius Peppers, also make the reward high.
7. San Francisco 49ers – Blaine Gabbert, QB, Missouri*
New head coach Jim Harbaugh will see if he can put together the rest of the package in a player with physical characteristics similar to Andrew Luck.
8. Tennessee Titans – Ryan Mallett, QB, Arkansas*
Despite the departure of head coach Jeff Fisher, GM Mike Reinfeldt has said the team still plans to follow through on their previously announced intention to trade or cut Vince Young. Mallett has received a lot of negative reviews for his perceived issues, tangible and intangible, but the rocket-armed QB did nothing but improve on the field.
9. Dallas Cowboys – Marcell Dareus, DE, Alabama*
Three of the Cowboys top four ends are free agents. Expect them to fix secondary issues by going after free agent Nnamdi Asomugha, who played under new defensive coordinator Rob Ryan in Oakland.
10. Washington Redskins – Jake Locker, QB, Washington
Rumor was head coach Mike Shanahan was a big fan of Locker last year. Most were disappointed Locker failed to achieve the inflated expectations that were put out there for him, but he played through an injury-filled season to finally lead the Huskies to a winning record and remains an amazing prospect physically.
11. Houston Texans – Aldon Smith, OLB, Missouri**
New defensive coordinator Wade Phillips gets a player with potential to be another DeMarcus Ware for him.
12. Minnesota Vikings – Cam Newton, QB, Auburn*
After bringing Craig Johnson from Tennessee to be their new QB coach, there was speculation Vince Young could follow him. I think the Vikings look to start fresh at the position and expect either Newton or Jake Locker to be available here. Both are mobile options that Johnson is a good match to work with. New offensive coordinator Bill Musgrave is also coming off helping develop a rookie QB to quick success in Atlanta.
13. Detroit Lions – Prince Amukamara, CB, Nebraska
Cornerback is a strength of this draft class, so the Lions could look in other directions at this pick, but I don’t think they pass up Amukamara if he is available here.
14. St. Louis Rams – Julio Jones, WR, Alabama*
The Rams got some unexpected highlights out of their patchwork receiving corps, but they need a premier weapon to pair with their new franchise QB if they want to get the most out of him.
15. Miami Dolphins – Mark Ingram, RB, Alabama*
Expected to be the strength of their offense, the running game was extremely disappointing behind Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams. Both are free agents and past their prime, so it wouldn’t be a surprise to see both gone and Ingram or Mikel LeShoure the new face of the backfield.
16. Jacksonville Jaguars – Jimmy Smith, CB, Colorado
While always difficult to predict what GM Gene Smith will do in the draft, he’s been very forthcoming about his intent to focus on improving talent on the defensive side of the ball. A shutdown corner with great measurabes, Smith has flown under the radar at a struggling Colorado program and without gaudy numbers because opposing quarterbacks avoided him.
17. New England Patriots (via Oakland Raiders) – Cameron Jordan, DE, California
The versatile and fundamentally sound Jordan is the ideal Belichick player, but he may not fall this far after an impressive week at the Senior Bowl. If he does, the Patriots flip the pick they acquired for Richard Seymour to get him.
18. San Diego Chargers – Cameron Heyward, DE, Ohio State
After an up-and-down season, a dominating performance in the Sugar Bowl reminded teams of why he was one of the top prospects as a five-technique DE at the beginning of 2010. Tommy John surgery in January will limit him at the NFL Combine, but isn’t of long-term concern.
19. New York Giants – Anthony Castonzo, OT, Boston College
The value in this draft looks like it will be the offensive tackles. Despite a number of potential left tackle prospects, none have separated themselves from the pack yet. After the NFL Combine, one or more are likely to be locked in to the top half of the draft because of the importance of the position. With ideal measurables, four years of quality starting experience and enough athleticism, Castonzo is a good bet to be the first off the board.
20. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Adrian Clayton, DE, Iowa
After being regarded as one of the top overall prospects entering the year, a disappointing season dropped his stock. He didn’t do himself any favors by not participating in the Senior Bowl. He could be a value pick for the Bucs here, who look to bolster their edge pass rushing after focusing on the interior line in last year’s draft. However, an underwhelming performance at the NFL Combine could have him fall out of the first round.
21. Kansas City Chiefs – Phil Taylor, NT, Baylor
The increase in 3-4 defenses in the league has put a premium on true nose tackles. Ron Edwards and Shaun Smith formed a serviceable tandem during the team’s year of transition, but both are free agents and Taylor has rising up draft boards after an impressive Senior Bowl week.
22. Indianapolis Colts – Tyron Smith, OT, USC*
Smith has exciting potential, but after spending last season on the right side and weighing under 300 pounds, there is risk in betting on him meeting that potential. Lacking the classic bulk, he is a better fit for their zone-blocking scheme, although the Colts have begun moving away from it. The termination of running back coach Gene Huey may mean more changes in blocking approach are in store.
23. Philadelphia Eagles – Gabe Carimi, OT, Wisconsin
He might lack the footwork to be a left tackle, but the right side is just as important with a left-handed Michael Vick in Philadelphia. With a nasty attitude and some physical similarities, Carimi will remind some of Jon Runyan, the man Winston Justice has been unable to successfully replace at RT.
24. New Orleans Saints – Akeem Ayers, LB, UCLA*
The top pure linebacker in the draft, the Saints would be thrilled to have him strengthen their weakest unit overall.
25. Seattle Seahawks – Aaron Williams, CB, Texas*
Head coach Peter Carroll has a lot of holes to fill in his second season despite backing in to the playoffs, but cornerback might be of the most immediate concern. This pick will be interesting if one or more of the top four quarterbacks fall here, especially local hero Jake Locker.
26. Baltimore Ravens – Brandon Harris, CB, Miami*
The team has just Lardarius Webb and Domonique Foxworth under contract, with the lateral coming off a blown knee. Efforts to plug the position with free agents haven’t been successful and they need an influx of talented youth.
27. Atlanta Falcons – Kyle Rudolph, TE, Notre Dame*
The severe hamstring injury that ended his season early will help Rudolph fall here for the team to get the eventual replacement to Tony Gonzalez. With the future Hall of Famer around for another year, Rudolph has time to fully recover and be eased in to a feature role as he learns watching one of the best.
28. New England Patriots – Ryan Kerrigan, OLB, Purdue
A classic high-motor guy, Kerrigan produced with tenacity over athletic ability. His fringe first-round stock will take a hit with many teams at the NFL Combine, but he fits the Belichick profile and should remind him of Mike Vrabel.
29. Chicago Bears – Derek Sherrod, OT, Mississippi State
The only surprise at this pick will be which offensive tackle GM Jerry Angelo selects. He tried the last time the Bears had a first-round pick (2008) and failed, with Chris Williams moving to guard this year. This draft projects to set up nicely for the Bears to try to fill their biggest need again, after leading the league in sacks allowed.
30. New York Jets – Muhammad Wilkerson, DE, Temple*
The biggest strength of this draft may be 3-4 DE prospects, so the Jets should find a great value here at a position where age and depth are a concern. Under the radar in the MAC, Wilkerson has been a beast at DT this season, but has the agility and ability to penetrate that should make him a great fit at end for the Jets.
31. Pittsburgh Steelers – J.J. Watt, DE, Wisconsin*
While usually strictly adhering to a policy of drafting the best player available over need, the two may converge this year. After season-ending injuries in three of the last four years and turning 35 this year, the end is near for stalwart DE Aaron Smith. Like Smith, Watt has the prototypical build for a five-technique DE and rose up draft boards after showing some surprising ability to penetrate as a pass rusher.
32. Green Bay Packers – Jonathan Baldwin, WR, Pittsburgh*
If he runs well at the NFL Combine, he won’t last this long. The depth of the Packers was highlighted on their way to winning the Super Bowl despite a number of key injuries, so they definitely have the luxury of drafting the best player available. WR could be more of a need than expected as Donald Driver’s career is coming to an end and James Jones could look to cash in on free agency.
By: Dave Stringer — February 4, 2011 @ 2:16 pm
 Is Orton really competing for the starting QB job? 1. Recently installed as the Broncos’ executive vice president of football operations, John Elway stated this week that the team would enter training camp with an open competition at the quarterback position. However, the odds are long that 2010 first round pick Tim Tebow will not be starting on opening day. By going public that there would be a competition at the position, Elway accomplished two goals. First, he keeps the heat on Tebow and reinforces that he will need to work hard during the offseason to win the starting position. Secondly, he signals to other teams potentially interested in Kyle Orton that Orton is in the team’s plans and won’t be released by the club. Therefore, any team looking at Orton as a potential starter in 2011 will need to acquire him via trade from the Broncos. Denver has taken some heat for giving Elway such a prominent role despite his inexperience but the early indications are that he is a quick study and that bodes well for Broncos fans.
2. The Falcons signed head coach Mike Smith to a three-year contract extension this week, locking up him through the 2014 season. Smith led the Falcons to the top seed in the NFC this season and the Falcons have had a winning record in each of his three years in Atlanta, going 33-15 over those seasons. The team compiled back-to-back winning seasons for the first time in the franchise’s history under Smith’s tenure and with this extension, the AFC South will boast arguably the top group of division coaches in the league over the next few years. Sean Payton led the Saints to the Super Bowl championship last season while the Buccaneers Raheem Morris finished second in the AP Coach of the Year voting this season. In Carolina, the Panthers have brought in Ron Rivera and he has been a successful defensive coordinator for several seasons. The AFC South had two playoff participants this year and it won’t be a surprise if that remains the case for the next couple of seasons.
3. Sticking with the Falcons, general manager Thomas Dimitroff faces some interesting offseason decisions regarding the team’s stable of running backs. While Michael Turner is clearly the team’s most talented back and is signed long term, both of the team’s top backups are likely to be unrestricted free agents once a new collective bargaining agreement is signed. Jason Snelling took over as Turner’s top backup during 2009 and held that role this past season. Jerious Norwood has struggled with injuries over the past two seasons, playing in just 12 games, but remains an explosive player when healthy and can also contribute as a returner. With Snelling having proven to be a productive receiver out of the backfield (a role that Turner has never embraced) with 74 receptions over the last two years, there is less of a need for the Falcons to bring Norwood back. However, the Falcons rely heavily on the ground game and Norwood’s leverage is significantly hampered due to his inability to stay healthy so there is a strong chance he will be back in Atlanta in 2011.
4. Over in Carolina, the Panthers surely felt the sting when Stanford quarterback Andrew Luck chose to forego turning pro, leaving 2010 draft picks Jimmy Clausen and Tony Pike as the only players at the position likely to return to the team for the 2011 season. While Panthers general manager Marty Hurney went public with the team’s plans to upgrade the quarterback position, don’t be surprised if Clausen ends up starting on opening day next season. With a defensive minded head coach in Ron Rivera, a stable of talented running backs and an offensive line built for run blocking, the Panthers will likely employ a short passing attack which suits a young quarterback like Clausen. With none of this year’s crop of rookie quarterbacks being worthy of being the top overall selection in the draft and this year’s crop of veteran free agents on the downside of their careers, the odds are strong that Clausen will emerge as the Panthers starter in 2011.
5. In Cincinnati, the Bengals took their time in deciding the fate of offensive coordinator Bob Bratkowski, finally choosing to fire him this week. Bratkowski successfully used a heavily run-based offense in 2009 with the team winning the AFC North title that season. However, with the addition of Terrell Owens, Bratkowski abandoned the running game with decidedly mixed results. Jay Gruden, Jon’s brother, will take over for Bratkowski next season and he inherits an offense with a number of pressing issues. Quarterback Carson Palmer has asked to be traded, running back Cedric Benson is a free agent and wants a commitment to the running game before re-signing, Owens won’t be back and Chad OchoCinco may be on his way out as well, leaving a largely unproven trio of wide receivers in Andre Caldwell, Jerome Simpson and Jordan Shipley. This will be Gruden’s first season as an offensive coordinator in the league and that factor combined with the uncertainties at several skill positions could turn the Bengals offense into a fantasy mess in 2011.
6. The Chiefs were in the market for an offensive coordinator after Charlie Weis chose to leave Kansas City for the comfy confines of the coordinators role with the Florida Gators. Rather than bring in a big name for the position, they chose to promote offensive line coach Bill Muir. Muir’s promotion removes any doubt that head coach Todd Haley will be the main driving force and play caller for the Chiefs offense in 2011. The decision to hire Muir doesn’t come as a surprise as there were several rumours during the season that Haley clashed with Weis over the team’s offensive direction. Haley’s strong personality may have scared away potential candidates but the more likely scenario is that he wanted the added responsibilities and an offensive coordinator who isn’t likely to clash with him on game day.
7. Super Bowl Fact: For the first time in its 45-year history, the Super Bowl will be without cheerleaders. The Steelers and Packers franchises do not employ cheerleaders so this Sunday’s game will be the first Super Bowl without them. And frankly speaking, if you miss them, you’re missing the point.
8. Super Bowl Prediction: Packers 24, Steelers 20.
9. Hall of Fame Prediction: Marshall Faulk, Deion Sanders, Curtis Martin, Dermontti Dawson, Andre Reed.
By: Dave Stringer — January 19, 2011 @ 2:55 pm
1. With offensive coordinator Pat Shurmur leaving to become the head coach of the Cleveland Browns, St. Louis faced the difficult decision of finding an offensive coordinator to further the development of rookie quarterback Sam Bradford, the likely winner of the Rookie of the Year award. To avoid having Bradford learn two different systems in his first two years in the league, the Rams were expected to hire a disciple of the West Coast offense that Shurmur ran. San Francisco quarterback Alex Smith’s disastrous first few years in the league were the result of having to learn multiple systems, and his case was the most often cited rationale for the team wanting to use the West Coast system in 2011. However, after a difficult negotiation, the team instead chose to hire controversial former Broncos head coach Josh McDaniels. McDaniels coordinated the record-setting Patriots offense in 2007 and coaxed productive seasons out of Matt Cassel in 2008 and Kyle Orton during his stay in Denver. The decision to hire McDaniels will be much discussed, given his volatile tenure with the Broncos. But the issues that plagued him in Denver will not be present in St. Louis. Rams head coach Steve Spagnuolo’s assistants rarely speak to the media, and McDaniels won’t have much say in personnel matters, which he proved in Denver is his worst attribute. The decision to hire McDaniels will likely be viewed in league circles as a boom-or-bust move, but, given his offensive pedigree, McDaniels represented more upside than any of the other candidates. And the downside risk is minimized by the fact that McDaniels will be looking to bolster his resume in order to secure his next head coaching position. In fact, the most likely downside for the Rams would be that McDaniels may help Bradford have a solid season and then land himself a head coaching gig in 2012.
 Sam Bradford's stock is on the rise. 2. The fantasy impact of McDaniels joining the Rams can be summed up simply as “more pass and less run.” McDaniels prefers to throw the ball, and with running back Steven Jackson coming off his worst season since becoming a starter, look for McDaniels to lean heavily on Bradford’s throwing abilities. It’s also worth noting that McDaniels coaxed a Pro Bowl caliber year out of retread Brandon Lloyd, as well as productive seasons from Jabar Gaffney and Eddie Royal. His ability to get the most out of his wide receivers reduces the likelihood that the Rams will use a first- or second-round selection on a wide receiver and increases the chance of rookie Danario Alexander having a productive sophomore campaign.
3. Over in Cleveland, Browns management chose the up-and-coming Shurmur over several other big-name head coaches. Shurmur’s ties to the Eagles organization when current Browns general manager Tom Heckert was in Philadelphia helped his cause, as well as did his West Coast system, which meshes well with the philosophy of head honcho Mike Holmgren. The knock on Shurmur was that he had only been an offensive coordinator for two years in St. Louis and that he failed to take enough shots downfield. On the plus side, it’s hard to argue with the solid development Bradford showed in his first year, and there were plenty of whispers in St. Louis that Spagnuolo had handcuffed Shurmur in his offensive play calling. With Shurmur having shown an ability to develop young quarterbacks and Holmgren there to mentor both Shurmur and rookie quarterback Colt McCoy, the odds of McCoy blossoming into a solid starter are more likely than they were with the departed Eric Mangini leading the team.
4. Leave it to Raiders owner Al Davis to inexplicably fire head coach Tom Cable after he lead the team to their first season with fewer than eleven losses since 2002. Apparently that wasn’t enough for Davis, the team’s legendary owner who has been in full-scale decline as an owner for close to a decade. During the press conference announcing offensive coordinator Hue Jackson as the team’s 17th head coach (sixth since 2002), Davis blasted Cable, calling him a liar, implying that he embarrassed the organization, and stating that he had done a bad job as head coach. Davis also informed the team’s fans that he had withheld $120,000 from Cable’s paycheck as insurance against the Raiders losing a lawsuit to a former assistant who accused Cable of injuring him in a physical altercation. Just when the Raiders looked ready to turn the corner, Davis puts on another theater of the absurd, increasing the questions about which direction the team is headed in and whether they can produce a winning record in spite of their delusional owner. Here’s a note for you, Al: If you plan on firing any employee who embarrasses the organization, how about starting at the top with yourself?
5. The Falcons’ loss to the Packers this week was hardly a surprise given Green Bay’s strong play of late. Atlanta had the look of a solid regular season team, able to pile up wins based on their ability to run the ball, avoid turnovers on offense and mistakes on special teams, and play stout, if unspectacular, defense. However, Fox announcer Jimmy Johnson gets kudos here for hitting the nail on the head. He proclaimed that running the ball and playing solid defense provides wins in the regular season, but in games between similarly matched teams in the playoffs, the one more capable of making big plays will generally come out on top. Sure enough, the Packers came up with several big plays in their win over Atlanta, particularly exposing the Falcons’ lack of a big-play threat outside of wide receiver Roddy White. While running back Michael Turner puts up impressive yardage totals, his ability to make big plays diminished in 2010. And tight end Tony Gonzalez no longer has the ability to stretch a defense up the middle. As for wide receiver Michael Jenkins, it will be a shock if the Falcons don’t use a high draft pick to provide competition for the disappointing former first-round pick.
6. My condolences to Broncos fans who this weekend will see former Denver quarterback Jay Cutler lead the Bears in the NFC Championship game against the Packers. Former head coach Josh McDaniels shipped away Cutler and a fifth-round pick in return for Kyle Orton, a pair of first-round picks, and a third-round selection. Meanwhile, in Denver, the team has hired John Fox to replace the departed McDaniels; Orton is apparently on the trading block; and the Broncos’ return on the draft picks they received from the Bears has been minimal.
7. Last offseason, the Saints shipped offensive tackle Jamaal Brown to the Redskins for a mid-round draft pick, choosing to rely on Jermon Bushrod at the all-important left tackle position that protects the blindside of quarterback Drew Brees. Bushrod had a solid season in 2009 when Brown was placed on injured reserve early in the year, and he was a key contributor in the Saints’ Super Bowl win. But Bushrod’s play slipped a little in 2010, and the Saints are now in a quandary at left tackle, with Bushrod likely to be an unrestricted free agent in the new CBA. His play in 2010 didn’t warrant the megabucks deal that most young, emerging left tackles receive, but the Saints only have untested rookie second-round pick Charles Brown in reserve. This shapes up as a very interesting dilemma for a team that clearly needs stronger protection on the blindside of their franchise quarterback.
By: Dave Stringer — January 11, 2011 @ 3:51 pm
1. Colts head coach Jim Caldwell has had a solid start to his career, winning two AFC South division championships and taking Indianapolis to the Super Bowl last season and the first round of the playoffs this season. However, he made his biggest coaching blunder in the opening week of the playoffs. With the Colts leading the Jets 16-14 with 29 seconds remaining, New York faced a second-and-eight at the Colts 32-yard line after a 2-yard run by LaDainian Tomlinson. The Jets appeared to be playing conservatively, content to let the clock run down and trot out kicker Nick Folk for a long field goal attempt. That was until Caldwell inexplicably called a timeout. After the timeout, Jets offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer called a deep sideline pass to 6’5” wide receiver Braylon Edwards, who was being covered by 5’10” cornerback Jacob Lacey. Net result: 18-yard gain to the Indianapolis 14-yard line. Rather than Folk having to kick a 40-plus yard field goal, he nailed the game-winning 31-yarder. Caldwell should have let the clock wind down and let the Jets run the ball one more time before attempting a long field. It makes you wonder whether Caldwell knew that Folk had struggled from long distances (3-for-6 from between 40 and 49 yards and 2-for-5 from 50 yards or more).
 A prime trade candidate in 2011. 2. With the Eagles’ playoff loss to the Packers, the focus in Philadelphia will now turn to the team’s quarterback situation. Just as they did last year, the Eagles enter the offseason with question marks at the position. When Donovan McNabb was traded to the Redskins last year, the starting reins were handed to Kevin Kolb, who was injured in Week 1 and quickly lost the job to Michael Vick. Vick’s outstanding, MVP-caliber season and upcoming free-agent status—along with Kolb’s contract status and apparent unhappiness with being a backup—clouds the Eagles’ plans at the position. While Vick will command a hefty salary in 2011, either on a long-term contract or with the franchise tag (provided there is one in the new CBA), Kolb is due just $1.4 million in 2011 in the final year of his contract. Given Kolb’s low salary and Vick’s often reckless running style that makes him susceptible to injuries, the Eagles could decide to retain both quarterbacks. The flip side is that if Kolb isn’t traded this offseason, the Eagles risk losing him to free agency after next season and would receive nothing more for him than a compensatory draft pick (again, provided that stipulation remains in the new CBA). With the best predictor of future behavior being past behavior, the trade of McNabb as he entered the final year of his contract provides sufficient clues to what will happen. With several teams in need of a quality starting quarterback, Kolb will have a good number of suitors. Look for Andy Reid to move him prior to the start of the 2011 season.
3. Sticking with Kolb, let’s run down the franchises that will try to upgrade or bolster their quarterback depth via trade, free agency, or the draft. Carolina, Buffalo, Miami, Arizona, San Francisco, Tennessee, Oakland, Washington, and Minnesota figure to address their quarterback situations in the offseason. Of those teams, only Washington, Buffalo, and Oakland would not have interest in Kolb.
4. The free-agent class of 2011 looks to be extremely weak at quarterback. Including players likely to be released by their current teams, the most attractive free agent options will be McNabb, Alex Smith, Matt Hasselbeck, and Marc Bulger. Other than Kolb, Kyle Orton is the only starting-caliber quarterback likely to be available in a trade.
5. Brett Favre is also not under contract for 2011, although it looks like he’s finally ready to ride off into the sunset—but you never know…
6. With the offseason approaching, it’s worth noting that until a new CBA is signed, the only offseason trades allowed are those that involve draft picks going in both directions.
7. Similar to the Eagles, the Bengals were expected to evaluate the quarterback position in the offseason. Unlike Philadelphia, Cincinnati’s issue wasn’t an embarrassment of riches at the position. Rather, the Bengals were expected to ponder whether it was time to move on from Carson Palmer and use a high draft pick to head in another direction. However, shortly after signing a two-year extension to remain the team’s coach, Marvin Lewis addressed Palmer’s situation and stated that he would remain the starter for 2011. Palmer had a poor season this year when offensive coordinator Bob Bratkowski went with a pass-heavy offense after the team acquired Terrell Owens as a free agent, eschewing the smashmouth, run-based offense that led to a division title in 2009. Running back Cedric Benson is a free agent, and he has let it be known that he is unlikely to return if Bratkowski stays. Look for the Bengals to jettison Bratkowski, whose offensive philosophy didn’t seem to mesh with Lewis’ expectations this season, and look for Benson to return to Cincinnati in 2011.
8. Once again, the Rams face a difficult offseason decision concerning the contract of starting free safety O.J. Atogwe. Last year, the Rams placed the lowest possible restricted free agent tender on Atogwe because a higher tender had to include a 10 percent raise over his 2008 salary of $6.3 million (when he was the team’s franchise player). Atogwe refused to sign the tender and, under an anomaly in the CBA, became a free agent on June 1st when the Rams failed to increase his tender by 10 percent of his 2009 salary. With most teams having spent to their budgets, Atogwe received little interest on the free-agent market and re-upped with the Rams on an inflated 5-year, $31.6 million contract. The contract included $4.1 million in guaranteed money for the 2010 season, a 2011 roster bonus of $8 million, and a $3.5 million salary for next season. In essence, it was a one-year deal for $4.1 million, since the Rams are unlikely to pay the roster bonus, which would trigger the remaining four years and $27.5 million. Atogwe has been a solid playmaker during his six years in St. Louis, with 22 interceptions, 16 forced fumbles, eight fumble recoveries, and four sacks. However, he will turn 30 prior to the 2011 season, and Rams head coach Steve Spagnuolo’s defensive philosophy is based on a dominant front four to pressure the quarterback and big cornerbacks with solid tackling ability. Barring a renegotiation to a lower salary, look for Atogwe to be in a new uniform in 2011.
9. We speculated last week that Owen Daniels might not be back in Houston next season. But with Gary Kubiak unexpectedly retaining his role as head coach, he quickly put cold water on those rumors. Kubiak endorsed Daniels’ return in 2011, stating that he displayed Pro Bowl form over the last four weeks of the season and that the Texans needed him on the roster.
10. In a response to a fan’s Twitter posting this week, Terrell Owens remarked that he would love to be catching passes from Rams quarterback Sam Bradford in 2011. After not making a big play for Chargers wide receiver Vincent Jackson, in part because of his two DUI arrests, St. Louis would seem to have little interest in signing Owens as a free agent. Rams head coach Steve Spagnuolo has made character a key priority in determining which free agents to pursue and which rookies to draft, so that match doesn’t seem likely to come to fruition.
11. Saints running back Pierre Thomas was expected to have a breakout season in 2010—with Mike Bell having signed with the Eagles and his replacement, Lynell Hamilton, lost for the season in training camp. That was derailed when Thomas suffered an ankle injury in Week 3 that lingered for almost the entire season, causing him to miss all but six games. He is a free agent after the 2010 season, and there is a strong possibility that he won’t be re-signed by the Saints. Head coach Sean Payton apparently wasn’t pleased with Thomas’ inability to recover from the ankle injury, and the emergence of Chris Ivory may make Thomas expendable in New Orleans, particularly if the team decides to pay Reggie Bush the close to $12 million he is due in 2011.
12. Another running back likely to be looking for a new team in 2011 is the Chargers’ Darren Sproles. Sproles has been an important cog in the San Diego offense and special teams for several seasons, but he was not as productive in either of those areas in 2010. San Diego has paid Sproles close to $14 million over the past two seasons, but they are unlikely to reward him with a lucrative long-term contract extension or to place the franchise tag on him after a season in which he carried only 50 times for 267 yards and caught 59 passes for 520 yards with a pair of touchdowns. In addition, he struggled as a returner, although that can be partially attributed to the team’s overall poor performance on special teams.
By: Dave Stringer — January 4, 2011 @ 12:59 pm
1. Minnesota’s Brad Childress was the first head coach to be let go this season, followed by Wade Phillips in Dallas, Josh McDaniels in Denver, and Mike Singletary in San Francisco. Cleveland was then first off the block once the regular season ended, with Browns top executive Mike Holmgren giving Eric Mangini the pink slip. The pairing of the defense-first, ultra-conservative Mangini with the offensive-minded Holmgren was an odd one, a shotgun marriage that seemed bound to fail when Holmgren was hired last offseason, inheriting Mangini as his head coach. It was a surprise to most when Holmgren announced that Mangini would be retained, but his firing was expected after Cleveland had a string of disappointing games to end the season. The Browns appeared to turn the corner with a win over powerful New England, but then the wheels then came off. After that impressive win, they went 2-6, including losses in their final four games. The final straw was the team’s dismal performance in a Week 17, 41-9 home loss to division rival Pittsburgh. That spelled the end for Mangini, as Holmgren apparently couldn’t stomach losses to bottom-feeders Buffalo and Cincinnati (a loss that snapped a Bengals 10-game losing streak) as well as the Steelers and the Ravens. Look for Cleveland to turn to an offensive-minded head coach that utilizes the West Coast offense, as Holmgren attempts to find a balance between his offensive vision and that of his hand-picked coach.
 Sweeping the division may not be enough to save Tom Cable. 2. Sticking with the head coaching carousel, the contracts of Carolina’s John Fox and Cincinnati’s Marvin Lewis have expired and neither coach is expected to be re-signed. Other coaches whose situations are tenuous are Gary Kubiak of the Texans, the Titans’ Jeff Fisher, Jack Del Rio in Jacksonville, Tony Sparano of the Dolphins, and the Raiders’ Tom Cable. Add it all up and there could be a whopping 12 coaches with a new team in 2011, provided of course that the league and the players’ association can hammer out a new collective bargaining agreement.
3. Here’s my take on which of the above coaches keep their jobs: Kubiak and Del Rio. That’s it.
4. With their win over the Bengals in Week 17—coupled with a Colts win and a Chiefs loss—the Ravens will travel to Kansas City to play the Chiefs in the AFC wild-card round. That should bring a sigh of relief to Ravens head coach John Harbaugh since Baltimore hasn’t beaten Indianapolis since 2001 and the Colts have knocked the Ravens out of the playoffs twice in the last four years.
5. With the Seahawks’ unexpected win over the Rams in Week 17, Seattle captured the NFC West crown with a 7-9 record, becoming the first team with a losing record to qualify for the playoffs. Next up is a home date with the Saints, and you can expect that game’s spread to approach 20 by kickoff.
6. This season the Lions set the league record for most consecutive road losses before finally stopping that streak at 26 with a win in Tampa Bay in Week 15. That win also ended their streak of not having won consecutive games since 2007, as they had defeated Green Bay in Week 14. The Lions then proceeded to down the Dolphins and the Vikings to end the season. That four-game win streak bodes well for a Lions team that came together despite not having franchise quarterback Matthew Stafford for most of the season.
7. With their Week 17 win over the Chiefs, Oakland became the first team in NFL history to not qualify for the playoffs after going undefeated in their division.
8. Sticking with the Raiders, their 8-8 finish marks the first time since the 2002 season that Oakland finished with fewer than 11 losses.
9. Prior to the 2009 season, the Patriots traded defensive end Richard Seymour to the Raiders for Oakland’s 2011 first-round draft pick. With the Raiders now eliminated from the playoffs, that pick becomes the 17th overall selection. In two years with Oakland, Seymour has played in 29 games and has accumulated 67 tackles, 9.5 sacks, a forced fumble, and a fumble recovery. Solid numbers to be sure, but hardly worthy of the first-round pick required to obtain his services.
10. Rams quarterback Sam Bradford is the hands-down favorite to win the league’s Offensive Rookie of the Year award, but there is a solid chance that two players from another team will finish second and third in the voting. Wide receiver Mike Williams and running LeGarrette Blount of Tampa Bay could finish right behind Bradford, and along with quarterback Josh Freeman they represent perhaps the league’s finest young trio of players from a single team. Look for Tampa Bay’s offense to take another step forward in 2011, making Freeman, Blount, and Williams (as well as tight end Kellen Winslow and wide receiver Arrelious Benn, provided he progresses well in his recovery from a torn ACL) solid fantasy options.
11. Rams running back Steven Jackson topped 1,000 rushing yards for the sixth consecutive season, but he showed signs of wearing down near the end of the year. Despite having the second-most rushing attempts in the league, Jackson finished only eighth in rushing yards, averaging a career-low 3.8 yards per carry. He is generally the main focus of opposing defenses, but with Bradford leading an improved passing attack, Jackson faced fewer formations stacked to stop him than in 2009, when he finished with 1,416 rushing yards and a healthy 4.4 yards per carry. Look for the Rams to finally make a concerted effort to get Jackson a quality backup in order to reduce his wear and tear over the final years of his career.
12. The fantasy world will likely be down on Chargers running back Ryan Mathews entering the 2011 season, courtesy of his disappointing, injury-plagued rookie year. However, he played well in the Chargers final four games, posting 349 total yards and five touchdowns despite splitting time with Mike Tolbert in two of those games and giving way to Darren Sproles in passing situations.
13. Having thrown a touchdown pass in every game in 2010, Patriots quarterback Tom Brady became just the sixth player to accomplish this feat over a 16-game season.
14. Bengals wide receiver Jerome Simpson was the top fantasy wide receiver in Week 16 and finished with the second-most fantasy points among wide receivers in Week 17. Simpson had been regarded as a forgettable bust since being selected in the second round of the 2008 draft, but his solid performance to finish the season makes him the projected starter opposite Chad Ochocinco in 2011. With third-round pick Jordan Shipley having a solid rookie season and Andre Caldwell as a solid backup, the Bengals may forgo acquiring another wide receiver this offseason. Over the first 46 games of his career, Simpson had caught just three passes for 32 yards. Over his last two games, he had 18 receptions for 257 yards and three touchdowns.
15. The Jets have taken a fair amount of criticism for releasing Danny Woodhead in favor of rookie fourth-round pick Joe McKnight. Woodhead has been very productive in New England, giving the Patriots a solid receiving option out of the backfield and a change of pace to starter BenJarvus Green-Ellis. But with the Jets playing a meaningless game against the Bills in Week 17, McKnight got the start and showed the Jets faithful why he was kept around, putting up 158 yards on 32 carries.
16. The Seattle Seahawks took a fair amount of criticism for releasing T.J. Houshmandzadeh in the preseason, partly because he was their most productive wide receiver in 2009 and there seemed to be little depth behind him. They followed that up by trading Deion Branch to the Patriots five games into the season. However, head coach Pete Carroll felt that former bust Mike Williams was ready to launch his career in Seattle, and Williams came through with a solid season. He finished 2010 with 65 receptions for 751 yards and a pair of touchdowns despite playing hurt for much of the year, including missing two games with an ankle injury and leaving another in the first quarter. At just 25 years old, Williams clearly impressed Carroll with his production, and he was consequently signed to a three-year contract extension this week. With the team wanting to develop youngsters Deon Butler and Golden Tate and with Williams locked up long-term, it appears that Seattle is unlikely to use a high draft pick or to acquire a big-name free agent at wide receiver. Look for Seattle to also re-sign Ben Obomanu, who was productive this year when given an opportunity. That could round out the team’s receiving depth chart for the 2011 season.
17. The assumption in Denver has been that Kyle Orton will either enter 2011 as the team’s starting quarterback or battle 2010 first-round pick Tim Tebow for that spot. The more likely scenario is that the Broncos will move Orton in a trade at or prior to the draft in order to stockpile draft picks as the team enters what should be a rebuilding phase. The Broncos’ starting defenders are an aging group, and there is little young talent behind the starters. With Orton coming off a career year, his value is not likely to increase with more playing time. Look for Denver to move Orton while he’s hot and enter next season with Brady Quinn or another veteran signal caller behind Tebow.
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