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Projections & Rankings Update – 7/24/14


By: — July 24, 2014 @ 11:02 am
Filed under: Forecast

Player Projections, Rankings & Cheatsheets
Change Log – 7/24/14

Quarterbacks

  • Tom Brady (+1) – Positive news on Gronk bumps Brady’s TD total up by one.

Running Backs

  • Doug Martin (-4) – Hard to envision Dougie getting 300+ carries as Bucs lean towards RBBC.
  • Bishop Sankey (-4) – I expect Sankey to lead the RBs in production but McCluster and Greene will keep the rookie out of RB1 territory.
  • Ray Rice (+1) – Slight adjustment as Rice receives only two-game suspension.
  • Bernard Pierce (-3) – I was expecting Rice’s suspension to last four games.
  • David Wilson (+10) – Positive news on Wilson (neck) has him fantasy relevant again.

Wide Receivers

  • Mike Wallace (+2) – Starting to prefer Wallace over other high-end WR3 options.
  • Sidney Rice (dropped) – Retired from the league.
  • Doug Baldwin (+13) – Retirement of Rice solidifies Baldwin as No.2 wideout.

Tight Ends

  • Rob Gronkowski (+4) – Bump for Gronk as he has been cleared for camp but long injury history remains a big red flag.

Projections & Rankings Update – 7/17/14


By: — July 17, 2014 @ 1:05 am
Filed under: Forecast

Player Projections, Rankings & Cheatsheets
Change Log – 7/17/14

Running Backs

  • Giovani Bernard (+2) – Slight adjustment to Gio’s rushing totals.
  • Bishop Sankey (N/A) – No change to Sankey but I am considering bumping his projections down based off various reports. I’ll wait until camp then reconsider.

Wide Receivers

  • Randall Cobb (+2) – No projection move but a slight ranking bump for Cobb. Feel more confident in him over Vincent Jackson.
  • Malcom Floyd (+15) – Floyd appears to be fully recovered from his neck injury. Next hurdle will be training camp.

Tight Ends

  • David Ausberry (+17) – Ausberry (shoulder) will likely be the starting tight end as long as there are no setbacks during camp.
  • Nick Kasa (dropped) – No reason to have three Raiders’ tight ends in the rankings.

Projections & Rankings Update – 7/10/14


By: — July 10, 2014 @ 1:48 am
Filed under: Forecast

Player Projections, Rankings & Cheatsheets
Change Log – 7/10/14

One of the lightest updates we’ve done in recent memory. Substantive news has been lacking which is just how coaches and front office types like it this time of year.

Running Backs

  • Ryan Mathews (+2) – Recent comments from OC Frank Reich calling Mathews the “workhorse” seems to suggest his 285 carries from a year ago might be repeated.

Wide Receivers

  • LaVon Brazill (dropped) – The Colts receiver has been suspended for the entire season.

Tight Ends

  • Richard Rodgers (+20) – The Packers tight end situation is far from settled but the rookie is at least making the most of his pre-season opportunities.

Projections & Rankings Update – 7/03/14


By: — July 3, 2014 @ 9:57 am
Filed under: Forecast

Player Projections, Rankings & Cheatsheets
Change Log – 7/03/14

Quarterbacks

  • Tony Romo (+2) – Starting to shift my thinking on the Cowboys offense. Romo likely to be the centerpiece, not the running game.
  • Tom Brady (+1) – Brady’s fantasy value hinges on how quickly Gronk (knee) can return.

Running Backs

  • DeMarco Murray (-1) – Admittedly I still don’t have a firm handle on the Cowboys running game. I’m trending toward a timeshare which means Murray is overvalued even with this slight bump downward.
  • Eddie Lacy (+3) – Added a TD to Lacy’s projections. Hard to see him getting as many looks in the red zone if Rodgers plays a full 16 games but he won’t be forgotten around the goaline either.
  • Lance Dunbar (+7) – May be in for Joique Bell-type season.
  • Jacquizz Rodgers (–11) – Redistributed yardage between Rodgers and Freeman.
  • Devonta Freeman (+8) – See Rodgers above. Freeman also comes with upside of getting first and second- down carries should SJax come down with an injury.

Wide Receivers

  • Dez Bryant (+1) – Swapped Dez and A.J. Green in Tier 2 with Dez being borderline Tier 1.

Tight Ends

  • Rob Gronkowski (+11) – While I’m still skeptical that Gronk (knee) will see action early in the season, his upside is so valuable that my initial ranking of him was likely too low.

Projections & Rankings Update – 6/26/14


By: — June 25, 2014 @ 11:44 pm
Filed under: Forecast

Player Projections, Rankings & Cheatsheets
Change Log – 6/26/14

Quarterbacks

  • Joe Flacco (-2) – A slight bump down for Flacco who should continue to force feed the running game at the expense of throwing downfield.
  • T.J. Yates (#57) – Yates checks into the bottom tier of the rankings after being traded to the Falcons. He’ll serve as Ryan’s backup.

Running Backs

  • Lamar Miller (+13) – Miller will be in the drivers seat until Moreno (knee) returns during training camp.
  • Knowshon Moreno (-10) – Moreno will miss 4 weeks due to knee surgery. He should be back early in camp but he’ll have a red injury flag by his name throughout the pre-season.

Wide Receivers

  • Randall Cobb (+3) – Slight bump for Cobb. It’s possible the Pack could have two 1100-yd receivers this season.
  • Torrey Smith (+3) – Bumped up the number of catches for Smith who should set a career high in Kubiak’s system.
  • Steve Smith (-8) – The expense of the younger Smith’s bump.
  • Jordan Matthews (+11) – Matthews is getting a lot of off-season hype but the addition of Sproles and two mouths to feed at TE doesn’t leave a lot of opportunities for the third receiver in this offense.

Tight Ends

  • Adrien Robinson (-7) – Isn’t making the most of his opportunity to be the Giants go-to tight end.

Projections & Rankings Update – 6/19/14


By: — June 20, 2014 @ 2:05 am
Filed under: Forecast

Player Projections, Rankings & Cheatsheets
Change Log – 6/19/14

Just a mild update as teams wrap up mini-camp and players head off to parts unknown for a few weeks.

Quarterbacks

  • Ben Roethlisberger (+3) – Up-tempo offense used down the stretch last season expected to be used more in 2014.
  • Derek Carr (#45) – Inserted into the rankings as he’s already passed McGloin for the #2 QB spot in Oakland.

Running Backs

  • Marshawn Lynch (-5) – Slight bump down for Mr. Skittles. Not so much for his contract squabble, but on the expectation that Christine Michael will eat some of his carries.
  • Christine Michael (+17) – See above. His upside is a classic case of why you don’t simply place rank numbers next to a group of players projected stats and call them “rankings”.

Wide Receivers

  • Percy Harvin (+3) – Corrected a mistake in Seahawks passing projections. Harvin was missing a receiving TD.
  • DeSean Jackson (-5) – Changed my thinking on the distribution between Garcon and DJax. Expect Djax to be more of decoy than he was last season, opening the field for Garcon and TE Reed.
  • Reggie Wayne (+20) – I’m skeptical Wayne (ACL) will make enough of a recovery to be a WR2 this season however, head coach says he expects Wayne to be ready for training camp. We’ll see.

Tight Ends

  • Antonio Gates (-2) – Slight bump down for the ole’ timer. He’s keeping Green from being a TE1.
  • Zach Miller (+3) – Miller was missing a receiving TD from my initial projections.

Projections & Rankings Released – 6/4/14


By: — June 5, 2014 @ 9:16 am
Filed under: Forecast

Player Projections, Rankings & Cheatsheets
Change Log – 6/4/14

Here we go! It’s a special time when the rankings hit the site for a new season. Our initial release for 2014 has over 400 offensive players and 345 defensive players projected and ranked. Sporadic updates will occur in June with weekly updates kicking off in July when as we roll towards the meat of the fantasy season. We’ll also do unscheduled updates as needed, typically for significant injuries or news that occurs between scheduled updates.

Quarterbacks

  • Matt Ryan (#7) – I’m looking for a bounce-back season for Ryan and the Falcons passing game as they move towards a base three-wide receiver set without Tony G.
  • Nick Foles (#4) – I get the impression Foles may be a hot button topic with fantasy owners this pre-season. Can he repeat his gaudy numbers from a year ago? I tend to think he can but Jeremy Maclin needs to stay healthy.
  • Tony Romo (#15) – Everyone expects new passing game coordinator Scott Linehan to air it out on every play. He’s already made comments about leaning on DeMarco Murray and the running game. I’m going to keep Romo (back) a bit lower than most for now until he proves he’s healthy while I formulate a more solid opinion on where this offense is headed in 2014.

Running Backs

  • Marshawn Lynch (#6) – No sooner than I get my rankings posted, it’s revealed that the Seahawks are leaning toward a RBBC with Lynch and Christine Michael. Sigh. Lynch will be moving down into RB2 territory in our next update.
  • Toby Gerhart (#10) – I realize the Jags have issues at Quarterback and have lost one their best receivers, but Gerhart is in line for 300+ touches this season. His current ADP of 5.01 is too low.
  • Arian Foster (#11) – Foster is reportedly in for a heavy workload this season under head coach Bill O’ Brien. Can he hold up?
  • C.J. Spiller (#24) – This is likely Fred Jackson’s last season in Buffalo. Spiller is shaping up as a boom or bust RB in 2014.

Wide Receivers

  • Calvin Johnson (#2) – I can’t remember the last time Megatron didn’t start the season #1. With Decker moving on, Demaryius Thomas (#1) is in for a huge season.
  • Percy Harvin (#12) – Harvin falls into the same boom/bust category as Spiller. It all depends on your tolerance for risk.
  • Andre Johnson (#25) – The disgruntled Johnson wants out of Houston and who can blame him? He’s a pro and will likely have a decent year, but we may see the beginning of the end this season for AJ.
  • Eric Decker (#38) – He becomes a #1 wide receiver on of the handful of teams that runs it more than they throw it. He’s a WR3 at best.
  • Reggie Wayne (#90) – He’ll move up in subsequent updates as long as he has no setbacks in his recovery from knee surgery. Still, even if he starts Week 1, I’m not expecting a WR1 season from the 35 year-old Wayne.

Tight Ends

  • Julius Thomas (#2) – With Decker moving on, Julius Thomas is in for a huge season. I won’t be surprised if he overtakes Jimmy Graham as the #1 fantasy TE by season’s end.
  • Vernon Davis (#3) – Davis is skipping OTAs and likely won’t be at the June mandatory minicamp.
  • Kyle Rudolph (#7) – Norv Turner has a history of feeding the tight end.
  • Ladarius Green (#19) – I pegged Jordan Cameron as my TE sleeper a year ago and would do the same for Green if Antonio Gates wasn’t in the mix… but he is.

Projections & Rankings Update – 9/3/13


By: — September 3, 2013 @ 9:02 am
Filed under: Forecast

Player Projections, Rankings & Cheatsheets
Change Log – 9/3/13

Quarterbacks

Running Backs

Wide Receivers

Tight Ends

  • Zach Sudfeld (+3) – Should have value even when Gronk returns.
  • Julius Thomas (+8) – Will start in Denver but will be the fourth option behind three standout receivers.

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