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Fantasy Football Strategy, Advice, and Commentary |
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 By: Dave Stringer — August 4, 2011 @ 3:11 am
QB Peyton Manning
 There’s consistency and then there’s Peyton Manning consistency. Peyton Manning consistency as in over 4,000 passing yards in 11 of 13 seasons (missing the mark in his rookie season and in 2005 when he was rested at the end of he year), at least 26 touchdown passes in every pro season and no missed starts over his entire career. Not good enough for you? How about 66 touchdown passes over the last two years with Manning throwing for a career-high 4,700 passing yards in 2010 and the third most yards of his career (4,500) in 2009. Is he getting better with age? Probably not but the Colts are throwing it more than ever with Manning throwing a career-high 679 times last season and 1,250 times over the past two seasons. The same cast of receivers and tight ends returns with the added bonus of tight end Dallas Clark and Austin Collie returning to health. That’s good news and so is the fact that the running game figures to struggle once again in 2011. Sure, a neck injury has caused him to be placed on the physically unable to perform list but does anybody doubt he will be ready on opening day? Manning is money in the banks, folks.
RB Joseph Addai
After posting a respectable 1,164 total yards and 13 touchdowns in 2009, Addai’s 2010 season was derailed due to a neck injury that caused him to miss eight games and post career lows in all the major offensive categories. While his history injury and modest production in a solid Colts offense would generally decrease the chances of him returning, Indianapolis chose to re-sign him as a free agent for two reasons: he is solid in several areas including pass protection and they don’t have another proven performer at the running back position. Donald Brown has been a bust, Mike Hart is too small and not very dynamic, Jarvarris James has a limited skill set and they aren’t about to hand a significant role to rookie 4th round pick Delone Carter and watch him blow a blitz protection. And when your passing game is as proficient as the Colts is, it’s not like you need a top tier running back to make the offense go. Before you turn Addai away, consider he has averaged 81 total yards and 0.71 touchdowns per game over his five-year career. Sounds like a solid RB3.
RB Donald Brown
After a disappointing rookie campaign in 2009, the Colts former 1st round pick got a chance to prove his worth in 2010 when Joseph Addai was out for eight games with a neck injury. Unfortunately for Brown, in those eight games, he topped 70 rushing yards once, had just 558 total yards and scored one touchdown. All Brown proved was that he wasn’t ready for prime time. Addai was re-signed as a free agent and the Colts used a 4th round pick on Delone Carter, who figures to get the short yardage work. While the Colts aren’t likely to give up on Brown after two seasons, the odds of him supplanting Addai or earning a significant role in the team’s offense are unlikely. He’s a good handcuff for Addai owners due to his injury history, provided he wins the job, of course.
 Is Wayne close to the fantasy cliff? WR Reggie Wayne
Entering 2010, there were some concerns that the talented wide receiver had slipped some due to his lack of production over the latter part of the 2009 season when he had just 385 yards and two touchdowns over the final seven games of the seasons. Those concerns were ill-founded as Wayne had another excellent season in 2010, catching a career-high 111 passes for 1,355 yards and six touchdowns as the Colts relied on the pass more than they ever had during Wayne’s career. However, once again, there are concerns about how much Wayne has left due to his mediocre production at the end of 2010. Over the final three games of the regular season, he caught 17 passes for 142 yards and a touchdown before being completely shut down by Darrelle Revis and the Jets in the Colts wild card playoff loss (one reception for one yard). However, this year, we won’t place so much stock in his end of season swoon. Consider him a mid-tier WR1 for 2011.
WR Pierre Garcon
Let’s run the numbers for Garcon’s first three seasons in the league. His receptions have increased from 4 to 47 to 67. Receiving yards have went from 23 to 765 to 784 and touchdowns have went from zero to four to six. I guess that means he’s due for another uptick in production in 2011. Unfortunately, Garcon’s actual play on the field doesn’t support such a conclusion. He has caught just 55.1% of his targets (56.7% in 2010, lowest amongst Colts receivers and tight ends) and could see a reduction in targets in 2011 with tight end Dallas Clark and wide receiver Austin Collie in the line-up. On the plus side, Garcon’s talent is undeniable, save for his questionable hands, and he caught five touchdowns passes in the final five games of the 2010 regular season and added another score in the team’s wild card game. Consider Garcon a low-end WR3 or high-end WR4 and a player with tremendous upside if he can improve his route running and reduce his drops.
WR Austin Collie
Collie was on an incredible role for the early part of 2010, near the league lead in several categories, before injuries ruined what was looking like a breakout season for the 2009 4th round pick. Over the first six weeks of the season, he caught 44 passes for 503 yards and six touchdowns. Concussions and a thumb injury caused him to miss of the Colts final ten games and there has to be real concern whether Collie can remain free of concussions for an entire season. That makes him a huge risk. On the plus side, Collie is productive when healthy and is one of quarterback Peyton Manning’s favorite targets, catching 80.5% of his targets last season and 66.7% in 2009. High risk, high reward. Bank on Collie missing time in 2011 and that drops him down to WR4 status.
WR Anthony Gonzalez
Entering the Colts 2010 training camp, Gonzalez was in a battle with Pierre Garcon to start outside and with Austin Collie to start in the slot position. Entering 2011, he’s in a battle with Blair White to be the team’s fourth wide receiver and it is likely a 50/50 proposition whether he even makes the team given that he’s been in the line up for three games over the past two seasons and suffered a season-ending knee injury last November. The 2007 1st round pick’s future looked bright after his first two years in the league as he caught nearly 72% of his targets over that period. However, his Colts future looks done and it is doubtful other teams will take a shot on a player with his lengthy injury history.
TE Dallas Clark
After posting a career year in 2009, Clark was solid again in 2010 before a wrist injury ended his season in Week 6. Prior to the injury, he had 37 receptions for 347 yards and three touchdowns. Although Jacob Tamme had an incredible run subbing in for Clark last year, he is clearly the backup and unlikely to steal significant playing time. Clark along with Austin Collie are quarterback Peyton Manning’s preferred options out of the slot and with Collie’s concussion issues, Clark could have that role to himself for much of 2011. Throw in the team’s questionable running back situation and an offensive line that often struggled to maintain blocks for deep passes and Clark figures to get plenty of looks. Outside of Antonio Gates, Clark is as solid of an option as you can find at tight end provided he can stay healthy.
TE Jacob Tamme
It’s all about opportunity and Tamme got his in 2010 when Colts starting tight end Dallas Clark suffered a season-ending wrist injury. Tamme entered the team’s starting line-up in Week 7 and the offense never missed a beat, catching 67 passes for 631 yards and four touchdowns over the season’s final ten games. He averaged 8.7 fantasy points per game over that stretch, which placed him third in that category amongst tight ends who played ten games and more, behind only Antonio Gates and Jason Witten. So, we know Tamme can produce but we also know that Clark so Tamme’s not going to get an opportunity to produce in Indianapolis. And we also know that if he gets traded, it will be to an offense that’s not as productive as the one the Colts have. Tamme’s not worth drafting but he’s definitely worth grabbing if Clark goes down.
By: Mike Krueger — @ 2:52 am
Player Projections, Rankings & Cheatsheets
Change Log – 8/4
Quarterbacks
- Kyle Orton (+12) rises from the ashes as he runs well ahead of Tebow in camp. Trade to Miami, all but dead.
- Jason Campbell (-100 yds), A banged up Ford and losing his top target (Miller) can’t help.
Running Backs
- Beanie Wells (+4), gets first crack at starting job keeping him ahead of Ryan Williams.
- LaDainian Tomlinson (-8), reduced role and salary has L.T. on the slide.
- Shonn Greene (+75 yards), should get around 240-250 carries if he remains healthy.
- Tim Hightower (+3), Torain already banged up. Hightower is next in line for starting job.
- Thomas Jones (-5), could and should lose carries to Le’Ron McClain.
- Jalen Parmele (+29), backing up Rice until the Ravens sign a veteran RB.
- Ronnie Brown (-8), nice pickup for the Eagles, but not so nice for Brown’s fantasy value. Handcuff to McCoy.
Wide Receivers
- DeSean Jackson (-2), working out the kinks as I ponder Jackson’s and Jeremy Maclin’s (+3) value.
- Dez Bryant (+1) I keep bumping him up with up with every update. Kid’s got big upside.
- Mike Williams (SEA) (-14), first Rice, now a pass-catcing TE; Williams is falling into a fantasy wasteland.
- Patrick Crayton (+30), would start opposite Jackson if the Chargers played today.
- Emmanuel Sanders (-8) Everyone’s sleeper wideout can’t get his feet healthy.
Tight Ends
- Zach Miller (-16) Uggh. Moving to Seattle does nothing for Miller’s fantasy stock. Tarvaris Jackson and sharing targets with Carlson? No thanks.
Kickers
By: Dave Stringer — August 2, 2011 @ 11:40 pm
 Burress (one-year deal) will have to prove it to the Jets and to fantasy owners. With a difficult salary situation and a hole at wide receiver opposite Santonio Holmes in their starting lineup, the New York Jets have reportedly reached a contract agreement with former Giant, Plaxico Burress.
The Jets lost backup receiver Brad Smith to division rival Buffalo and were apparently not willing to meet Braylon Edwards’ contract demands to secure his return to New York. That led to the signing of Burress, who will likely assume Edwards’ role as a red zone target and deep threat.
Burress returns to the league after a two-year absence stemming from a jail term related to shooting himself in the leg in a New York nightclub.
Although a significant market for his services seemed slim, there turned out to be remarkable interest, and the Jets were in the market for a veteran receiver. He was also recently linked to the Giants, Steelers, Eagles, Rams, and 49ers.
Fantasy Impact
Given his age and time away from football, Burress faces significant challenges in returning as the player he was when he left the league. He will get that opportunity with the Jets, but in New York’s heavily run-based offense, his upside would appear be limited. In fact, it’s basically what Edwards accomplished in 2010—53 receptions for 904 yards and seven touchdowns. And the odds of Burress getting there seem remote.
He is 34, he hasn’t played in two years, and he has never had the reputation as a truly dedicated player. Not to mention that the Jets still have Jerricho Cotchery as their top backup receiver, a player who has 64 starts over the past five seasons.
For Burress to move up to WR3 status, he will need to find the end zone plenty because he’s just not going to get close to 1,000 yards. He will likely become the team’s top red zone target, so he could reach seven or eight touchdowns, but banking on touchdowns is never a smart thing.
If you’re willing to gamble on those touchdowns and the inconsistency that comes with them, you could roll Burress as a WR3. But there are better options out there that possess far more upside.
By: Dave Stringer — @ 11:29 pm
 With Sproles in the mix, the Saints are now 4-deep at running back. Having traded Reggie Bush to the Miami Dolphins, the New Orleans Saints were in the market for a versatile player to replace him. They found that player in former San Diego running back Darren Sproles.
Sproles figures to assume much of the role that Bush performed during his five-year career with the Saints. He joins a revamped Saints running back depth chart that includes Pierre Thomas, second-year player Chris Ivory, and rookie first-round pick Mark Ingram.
The Chargers franchised the diminutive Sproles for the 2009 season and retained his services last year, paying him close to $14 million over the past two seasons. Reports indicate the Saints will pay Sproles that amount over the next four years.
Because San Diego had a difficult salary-cap situation and had Mike Tolbert, 2010 first-round pick Ryan Mathews, and 2011 sixth-round pick Jordan Todman on their roster, it was expected that Sproles would leave as a free agent.
Fantasy Impact
While Sproles is a dynamic player, he doesn’t enhance an offense the way Bush did, and he is unlikely to have as big an impact in New Orleans as Bush had.
In addition, Lance Moore was re-signed to a lucrative contract extension this offseason. A receiver’s new contract may seem to have little bearing on a running back’s production, but Moore was essentially Bush’s replacement as a receiver, often posting big numbers when Bush was injured. While Sproles will certainly contribute in the passing game, Moore’s lucrative deal likely means that he will get more playing time in 2011 than in previous years.
In the run game for the past few seasons, Bush essentially split time with Pierre Thomas and a second running back (first Mike Bell and then Chris Ivory last year). With Sproles now on the roster, the Saints are four deep at running back. This ensures that, barring injuries, Sproles won’t be receiving a significant number of carries.
If the presence of Sproles in New Orleans doesn’t sound too exciting from a fantasy perspective, there’s a reason for that. It’s all about opportunity. It’s hard to see Sproles getting significant touches in New Orleans, and that leaves him as waiver wire material unless those above him on the depth chart become injured.
By: Dave Stringer — @ 11:11 pm
QB Matt Schaub
 After posting a career year in 2009, Schaub was subpar in 2010 as he suffered with Andre Johnson missing time, tight end Owen Daniels struggling to recover from a torn ACL, and the team’s rushing attack improving dramatically with the emergence of Arian Foster. Schaub’s passing stats dropped by 401 yards and he threw for five fewer touchdowns, going from 29 to 24. On the plus side, he remained healthy for the second year in a row, once again starting all 16 games for the Texans. In 2011, Daniels figures to be much improved, and Schaub should benefit if he and Johnson can avoid the injury bug. While a return to his 2009 form seems unlikely with Foster playing a major role, Schaub remains a solid fantasy starter. Consider him a notch below the big seven at quarterback and a good bet to repeat his 2010 production, with an outside chance to match his outstanding 2009 season.
 Outta my way! Arian Foster powered his way through 2010 and is now a candidate for the top pick in fantasy football. RB Arian Foster
In two years, Foster has gone from being an undrafted rookie free agent to being mentioned with the league’s top running backs. He’s even considered a potential top overall selection in fantasy drafts. When rookie second-round pick Ben Tate went down with a season-ending injury last preseason, Foster was already well on his way to relegating the rookie to backup status. Foster has good size and held up well in carrying a workhorse load for the Texans last season, as his 393 touches attest to. Better yet, the Texans were happy to hand him that role, leaving main backup Derrick Ward with only 58 touches on the year. Foster chalked up 1,616 rushing yards to go along with 604 receiving yards and 18 touchdowns. You can put to rest any concerns that Tate is going to eat into Foster’s workload in a meaningful manner, or that Foster was a one-year wonder. He’s a safe top-three pick in 2011, and the case can certainly be made for taking him first overall when considering the quarterback issues in Minnesota and Tennessee.
RB Ben Tate
What a difference a year makes. Last season, the Texans used a second-round pick on Tate with the expectation that the rookie would immediately become their featured back. But a preseason ankle injury ended his rookie season, and Arian Foster took over to become the most productive running back in the league. In 2011, Tate will battle with Derrick Ward for the scraps that Foster leaves behind. Because Foster is a complete back, capable in both short-yardage situations and the passing game, those scraps won’t amount to much. Unless Tate wins the backup role over Ward outright, he isn’t even worth a low-round pick in redraft leagues.
WR Andre Johnson
For the first time in a couple of years, Johnson cannot be considered the surefire top fantasy wide receiver for the coming season. While he continued to play at a high level, he failed to top 1,500 receiving yards (as he had in 2008 and 2009). Of course, missing three games due to injury was the biggest problem; he averaged 93.5 yards per game in the games he actually played. Look for him to up his production in 2011, but the days of coming close to 1,600 receiving yards are likely over with Arian Foster eating into the Texans’ passing game production. While the case could be made for taking others as the first wide receiver off the board, Johnson should regain his title in 2011 as the most productive fantasy wide receiver.
WR Kevin Walter
Try as they might, the Texans are having a hard time getting Walter to play a reduced role with the team. Although Houston regularly touts the potential of Jacoby Jones, Walter continues to average about five targets a game, making both players marginal plays from a fantasy perspective. Walter caught 51 passes for 621 yards and five touchdowns last season, but a closer look reveals that 68 of his 92 fantasy points came in five games. Good luck figuring out when to use him. Regardless, with the team’s decision to hand Jones a lucrative long-term contract extension, things should change in 2011—just not in Walter’s favor. Walter lacks upside and is likely headed for a reduced role. He’s waiver wire material at best.
WR Jacoby Jones
The Texans apparently love Jones, and what’s not to love? He has good size and breakaway speed, and he can get open. Unfortunately, he doesn’t always run the right route and he doesn’t always catch the ball. Still, his numbers have improved in each of the last two years, and the team signed him to a three-year contract, so they may reward him with more playing time. However, with Arian Foster, Andre Johnson, and Owen Daniels clearly ahead of Jones in the pecking order, and Kevin Walter a worthy third wide receiver, Jones just isn’t likely to get enough looks to be a consistent contributor in 2011. He’s a late-round pick in redraft leagues.
TE Owen Daniels
The question with Daniels heading into 2010 was whether he had fully recovered from the torn ACL that ended his 2009 season. However, when the season started, he also had to deal with hamstring issues and never really regained the Pro Bowl form at which he played in 2009. Another year removed from the surgery, Daniels could easily rebound in 2011. Just look at how he finished his 2010 campaign. Over the final two weeks, he caught 13 passes for 135 yards and a pair of touchdowns, hitting double-digit fantasy points in each game. Look for that to happen much more frequently in 2011. Consider him a lower-tier fantasy starter, but one who could make a surprise jump into the top five.
TE James Casey
Casey was regarded as a potential replacement for Owen Daniels when the Texans took him in the fifth round of the 2009 draft. However, despite Daniels’ missing significant time over the last two seasons, Casey rarely saw the field because he couldn’t beat out journeyman Joel Dreessen. Following the team’s decision to sign Daniels to a four-year contract extension, Casey’s value in dynasty leagues has been pretty much extinguished.
By: Doug Orth — @ 6:13 pm
 Last season, Arizona established the start of a pipeline when they sent Anquan Boldin to the Baltimore Ravens. On Sunday, the Cardinals fired their return shot when they agreed to a two-year contract with Todd Heap.
In 2010, Heap caught 40 passes for 599 yards and five touchdowns in 13 games – the fifth time in his career he has eclipsed 40 receptions, 500 yards and five scores in the same season. To put that accomplishment into some kind of perspective in the long history of the Cardinals’ franchise, only two tight ends in franchise history have hit each of those benchmarks in the same year (Jackie Smith and Robert Awalt) and both of those players only did it once in their time with the team. So, to say Heap adds another dimension to this team is a gross understatement.
Fantasy Impact
For a Cardinals team that has been a virtual wasteland for fantasy TEs since the days of Freddie Jones, Heap is a huge get. Even at age 31 with a poor record of durability, Heap fills a void that has existed in Arizona for countless years. The signing is also the latest in a number of recent moves from the Cardinals to do whatever takes to make Kevin Kolb’s adjustment to the desert as smooth as possible. As far as Heap is concerned from a fantasy perspective, his arrival in Arizona is basically a lateral move. If owners were targeting him as a low-end TE1 before, they should do so now as well. As it has been for years, his biggest flaw is his injury history, so be sure to pair him up with another high-upside, late-round TE. But his presence should definitely make the lives of Larry Fitzgerald and Kolb much easier, especially since Kolb has already shown a willingness to throw to the tight end. The biggest loser with Heap coming to town is rookie Rob Housler, who was set to take on the pass-catching TE role in this offense before this signing.
By: Mike Krueger — August 1, 2011 @ 2:22 pm
Player Projections, Rankings & Cheatsheets
Change Log – 8/1
Quarterbacks
- Kevin Kolb (#20) comes to ARI as a QB2 with upside.
- Kyle Orton (-7) slides as starting spots across the league dwindle and rumored MIA deal fizzles.
- Vince Young (+15) lands in a good situation but has little fantasy value barring a Vick injury.
Running Backs
Wide Receivers
Tight Ends
- Todd Heap (+3) gets a slight boost. Could be second-leading receiver in Arizona.
- Ed Dickson (+15) gets a crack at the starting job in Baltimore.
- Kellen Davis (+14) gets a crack at the starting job in Chicago but still fantasy irrelevant.
- Greg Olsen (-6) will share targets with Jeremy Shockey in Carolina.
Kickers
By: Dave Stringer — @ 3:14 am
With a youth movement under way and their star wide receiver no longer in their plans, the Cincinnati Bengals have traded Chad Ochocinco to New England. Reports indicate the Bengals will receive the Patriots’ fifth-round draft pick in 2012 and their sixth-round pick in 2013.
 Me? No longer the imposing deep threat? The enigmatic Ochocinco has spent the last few seasons talking his way out of Cincinnati. With the team expected to start rookie quarterback Andy Dalton and having used their fourth pick in the draft on wide receiver A.J. Green, Ochocinco finally got his wish.
In New England, he will join a receiving unit that has lacked a proven deep threat since Randy Moss was traded early in the 2010 season. He will start opposite Deion Branch with Wes Welker playing out of the slot.
Ochocinco is coming off a disappointing 2010, having caught just 67 passes for 831 yards and four touchdowns during a season in which Terrell Owens overtook him as the team’s lead receiver.
Fantasy Impact
In Cincinnati, Ochocinco would have been the lead receiver on a team that will likely start a rookie quarterback and would have been looking to reduce the receiver’s role as they underwent a youth movement.
Going to New England, Ochocinco joins one of the NFL’s most prolific offenses led by arguably the league’s top quarterback in Tom Brady, so this trade increases his 2011 fantasy prospects.
However, expecting him to return as the fantasy stud he was a few years ago is ill-advised.
New England’s offense features a pair of solid, young pass-receiving tight ends in Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez; Welker remains the league’s top slot receiver; and Branch was a good, if inconsistent, performer last season after coming over from the Seahawks.
In addition, Ochocinco is approaching 34, he has failed to reach 1,000 receiving yards in two of the last three seasons, and he is no longer the imposing deep threat he was for most of his career.
He was a WR5 in Cincinnati, and while the move to New England should increase his production, he still ranks no better than a low-end WR3 with the Patriots.
The biggest fantasy losers in this deal are Dalton and Branch. Dalton loses his top receiver while Branch will likely see his targets reduced. Branch was rated as a WR3 before the trade but drops to an upper-tier WR4.
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