Passing
Game Thoughts: New England entered last Sunday on a modest
two-game winning streak that had propelled them back into playoff
contention. Deshaun Watson was having none of it. He connected
on 28 of 37 passes for 344 yards and two TDs in a 27-20 win over
the Patriots. Minus David Johnson (concussion), who was placed
on IR, Watson also doubled as the team's best ball carrier, running
six times for 36 yards and a score. Given how impotent the Lions
looked against first-time NFL starter P.J. Walker last Sunday,
Watson checks in as a high-end QB1 for Turkey Day.
Watson will be down one of his preferred targets, though, as
Randall Cobb hurt his toe in Sunday's win and is headed to Injured
Reserve and won't be ready to visit a familiar foe from his NFC
North days. Fortunately, Will Fuller (6-80-0 in Week 11) and Brandin
Cooks (4-85-0) will be good to go. Fuller has been the steadiest
option in Houston's passing attack, though he hasn't scored the
past two games after finding the end zone in six straight. Cooks
has continued to develop a solid rapport following a slow start
to his first season in H-Town.
Detroit currently ranks 25th against the pass this season at
258.4 yards per game, but that probably overstates their ability.
The run defense has been a yearlong invitation to keep the ball
on the ground, but as Walker proved on Sunday, the secondary is
very vulnerable as well. Expect the Texans to have a big day throwing
the ball with Fuller as a borderline WR1/WR2 and Cooks as a solid
WR2.
DET FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.15
DET FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.1
DET FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.22
DET FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.27
Running Game Thoughts: With David Johnson currently on IR, Duke
Johnson is the primary back. He has been largely ineffective in
that role, carrying the ball 40 times for 110 yards (2.8 YPC)
in two-plus games, though he has always been a capable receiver
out of the backfield. Detroit is 30th versus the run (139 yards
per game) ahead of only Houston and Dallas, but they did a solid
job holding Carolina in check last Sunday. It's still a plus matchup
for Johnson, who rates as an intriguing RB3 in Week 12.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Coming into play this past Sunday, Carolina
had lost five straight games and had allowed 79 points in their
last two. They then proceeded to shut out Matthew Stafford (178
yards, 0 TDs, 0 INTs) and the Lions; marking the first time Detroit
has been held off the scoreboard since 2009 in a game that was
started by... wait for it... Daunte Culpepper! Yes, the Lions
played without Kenny Golladay (hip) and Danny Amendola (hip),
but there's no excuse for posting zero points against a defense
that would never be mentioned among the NFL's elite.
With a short week, don't expect Golladay or Amendola to be ready,
which would leave Marvin Jones (4-51-0 vs. CAR) and T.J. Hockenson
(4-68-0) to carry the load. Jones had a TD off of a flea flicker
called back on a penalty, which would've extended his touchdown
streak to four games. He's playable as a WR3. Hockenson's emergence
has been a silver lining in another tough season, and he's currently
entrenched as a TE1. If Golladay is somehow able to go, he'd be
a WR2. As for Amendola, he could also be played as a flex if he's
active and Golladay is not.
Houston is in the same boat as the Lions defensively where their
relatively decent standing against the pass (22nd; 252.4 yards
per game) has more to do with weakness versus the run. Need proof?
Cam Newton threw for 365 yards in Week 11; prior to that, Newton
had topped 200 yards in just one of his previous six games. That
gives Stafford some upside despite likely being short-handed,
though he's still more of a QB2.
HOU FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.16
HOU FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.2
HOU FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.11
HOU FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.17
Running Game Thoughts: With D'Andre Swift (concussion) unavailable,
Adrian Peterson (7-18-0) and Kerryon Johnson (6-17-0) split the
duties on Sunday. It didn't go well, and now with a short week
it seems dubious whether or not Swift can clear the concussion
protocol in time to suit up on Thursday. Whoever goes is staring
down an enticing matchup with the Texans allowing an NFL-high
159.3 yards per game on 5.1 yards per carry this season. If Swift
is active he'd serve as a strong RB2. If not, Peterson slides
up into RB3 territory.
Football Team at
Cowboys - (Katz) Line: DAL -3.0 Total: 46.5
Passing
Game Thoughts: In what has become somewhat of a Thanksgiving
classic, the Football Team once again travels to Jerry World for
a nationally televised showdown against the Cowboys. These games
typically come with high stakes and this season is no different
as the winner of this game will take sole possession of first
place in the worst division in NFL history.
Alex Smith was coming off back-to-back 300 yard passing games
before last week’s dud, but that was largely due to the
Bengals’ inability to score points, which was exacerbated
by Joe Burrow’s injury (please recover 100% Joe). Smith
still completed 68% of his passes; he just only attempted 25 of
them. Although the Cowboys are nowhere near the offense they were
with Dak Prescott, they are still competent enough to force Washington
to call more pass plays. Washington blew out the Cowboys a month
ago and Terry McLaurin went for 90 yards and a touchdown on seven
receptions. 74% of the receiving yards allowed by the Cowboys
have gone to wide receivers and they’re allowing a league
worst 1.9 wide receiver touchdowns per game. Unfortunately, there’s
not much behind McLaurin. Cam Sims is the clear WR2, but it was
Steven Sims that found the end zone last week on limited snaps
and routes. Logan Thomas is always a starting option at tight
end because he plays 90% of the snaps, but he’s a touchdown
or bust option (but he did score against the Cowboys in their
last meeting).
DAL FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.13
DAL FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.16
DAL FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.2
DAL FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.19
Running Game Thoughts: Antonio Gibson and J.D. McKissic split
snaps almost evenly last week (53%-52%), but it was Gibson that
dominated carries 16-6. With the Football Team experiencing heavily
positive game script wire to wire, McKissic didn’t need
the 14.5 targets he averaged the previous two games. Expect McKissic’s
usage to increase this week, but remember the Cowboys are horrendous
against wide receivers so there may not be much need to throw
to running backs. The Cowboys allow 153.8 rushing yards per game.
Gibson was a smash against them a month ago, posting season highs
in carries and yardage, and is a smash again.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Andy Dalton’s return was a welcome
sight for anyone that subjects themselves to watching the Cowboys
play football in 2020. It was evident the coaching staff spent
the additional time provided by the bye week to open up the offense.
Dalton only threw for 203 yards, but he looked as good as he has
all season and was able to find CeeDee Lamb, Ezekiel Elliott,
and Dalton Schultz for touchdowns. That’s the good news.
The bad news is the volume still wasn’t really there. Lamb
only caught four balls for 34 yards. Amari Cooper was targeted
just seven times. Michael Gallup has been an afterthought all
season. 23% of the receiving yards allowed by Washington have
gone to tight ends, so this could be a good week to stream Schultz.
At receiver, only Cooper can be trusted as the clear WR1 in this
offense. Lamb will almost certainly need a touchdown to return
value. The Cowboys will do better than the three points they scored
the last time these teams met, but don’t expect any offensive
explosion, especially on a short week.
WAS FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.24
WAS FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.28
WAS FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.31
WAS FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.12
Running Game Thoughts: After four games without
a touchdown and three games not even being an RB2, Ezekiel Elliott
bounced back in a big way with his first 100-yard game of the
season. Zeke’s receiving game usage has not been there since
Prescott went down, but it was a relief to see that Zeke can still
be an RB1 with Dalton. The Football Team allows 120 rushing yards
per game and a 16% target share to opposing running backs. Elliott
is always starting with Dalton at quarterback, even with Tony
Pollard’s snap share now hovering around 30%. This is still
Zeke’s backfield, but it is worth noting that Pollard is
averaging about eight touches over his past four games. That at
least gives him a chance to break off a big play much like he
did last week. However, Pollard is not a fantasy option as long
as Zeke is healthy.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Derek Carr and the Raiders head to the
Mercedes Benz Stadium to take on Matt Ryan and the Atlanta Falcons.
The much-maligned Carr is in the midst of one of his best seasons
as a professional. He is on pace to throw for 30 passing touchdowns
and a career-best four interceptions while completing nearly 70%
of his passes.
For fantasy purposes, Carr is a solid play in the right situations,
including matchups against high powered offenses that feature
subpar defenses like the Falcons. Carr threw three touchdowns
and over 300 yards last week against the Chiefs, which was the
second time this season in which Carr threw for three TDs against
Andy Reid’s team.
The Falcons are not a potent offense like the Chiefs, but they
should be able to put up numbers at home against the Raiders and
force Carr to throw more than usual. Atlanta gives up the sixth-fewest
points to opposing running backs, but the most points to opposing
quarterbacks and a league-leading 22 passing touchdowns.
Josh Jacobs will have a solid day, and the Raiders will undoubtedly
try to run on Atlanta, but if history is a guide, Carr and the
passing game should have a great day this week vs. the Falcons.
You are starting Waller as a top-5 play this week, and Nelson
Agholor is also in play. The question is can you insert rookie
Henry Ruggs III in your lineup after six games in a row of five
or fewer fantasy points. Speedy receivers like D.J. Moore, Ceedee
Lamb, and DK Metcalf have all burned the Falcons for deep passes.
I would not expect more than five targets in the game for Ruggs,
and he should be considered a boom or bust play. But if there
were ever a matchup to play the rookie, it would be this one.
ATL FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.1
ATL FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.25
ATL FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.3
ATL FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.1
Running Game Thoughts: The blueprint for beating Atlanta has
been pretty straightforward this season. The Falcons are dead
last in points given up to quarterbacks, and their subpar secondary
cannot stop anyone from putting up big fantasy points.
By contrast, the Falcons have yet to give up more than 89 yards
rushing to an opposing running back, despite playing against Chris
Carson, Zeke Elliott, Aaron Jones, and Alvin Kamara. Those backs
have had success based on scoring touchdowns or added value in
the passing game, but rushing yards have been hard to come by.
Of course, owners are starting Jacobs, and he should deliver
a top-10 performance at the position based on his elite touchdown
scoring ability. The second-year back from Alabama has four touchdowns
in his last two games, including 21/112/2 gains Denver back in
Week 10.
Look for around 90 total yards and a score in this matchup, with
a high probability of a rushing score or two.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Matt Ryan currently ranks as the No.15
quarterback in fantasy points per game, nearly five points per
game less than his best season as a pro in 2018. Despite boasting
one of the best receiving corps in the league and a pass-happy
offensive coordinator, Ryan has failed to throw a touchdown in
four games this season.
When facing subpar defenses like Dallas, Denver, and Minnesota,
the veteran quarterback has been solid, with 11 total passing
touchdowns in those three games and an average passing yardage
of just over 300 yards.
In games against above-average defenses and when he is without
Julio Jones, Ryan has been downright dreadful and someone who
should be avoided for fantasy purposes.
On a positive note, the Raiders fall under the category of being
a subpar defense, allowing the 8th-most points to opposing quarterbacks.
On a negative note, Julio Jones is listed as a game-time decision
with a nagging hamstring injury and could very well miss this
game.
Las Vegas has given up over 300 passing yards in half of their
games this season, although only the great Patrick Mahomes was
able to throw for more than two passing touchdowns in the contests.
Look for Ryan to come close to the 300-yard mark with a pair
of touchdown passes, but he gets a substantial downgrade if Jones
is out of the lineup.
LV FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.8
LV FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.4
LV FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.13
LV FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.20
Running Game Thoughts: We have been saying all season long that
there are red flags with Todd Gurley because he is too touchdown-dependent
and will burn fantasy owners if he does not reach the end zone.
Although he continues to have just above three yards-per-carry
in his last five games, the savvy vet continues to reach pay dirt,
and his fantasy managers avoid getting goosed. Last week’s
eight carry for 26 yards and zero touchdown performance for 2.9
points was precisely what Gurley managers wanted to see as the
Saints beat up on the Falcons and effectively took the Falcons
out of rushing downs.
On a positive note, the Raiders give up the fourth-most points
to opposing running backs and the second-most rushing touchdowns.
This bodes well for Gurley reaching the end zone, although there
is the concern of a negative game script limiting his touches.
Chargers at Bills
- (Katz) Line: BUF -5.5 Total: 53.0
Passing
Game Thoughts: Perhaps my favorite player to watch play
this year has been Justin Herbert. From a fantasy perspective,
Herbert has been a poor man’s Kyler Murray this season and
I mean that in the most positive way possible. Herbert has finished
outside of the QB1 range just once all season and has scored at
least 21.5 fantasy points in every game except Week 3. The overwhelming
favorite for offensive rookie of the year is matchup proof.
The best way to attack the Bills’ secondary has been by
utilizing the tight end. 25% of the receiving yards allowed by
the Bills have gone to tight ends. That bodes extremely well for
Hunter Henry, who was largely left out of the fun despite scoring
in back-to-back games. Henry has caught exactly four passes in
four straight games, but he’s a strong play this week against
a team that struggles at defending the position.
As for Herbert’s favorite target, Keenan Allen is always
locked into lineups. He’s coming off his second 19 target
game of the season and has now scored in four straight. Allen
was never a prolific touchdown scorer and doesn’t need touchdowns
to produce in fantasy so when he gets them, that leads to broken
score lines. Mike Williams has also been useful over the past
month with three top 36 performances in his last four games. The
biggest fear is that with Allen running about half his routes
from the slot, Williams will draw more of Tre’Davious White.
Between Herbert’s favoritism towards Allen and the Bills’
problems against the tight end, Williams could be the odd man
out. Jalen Guyton is the clear WR3 for the Chargers, but he simply
isn’t targeted.
BUF FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.5
BUF FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.14
BUF FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.24
BUF FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.2
Running Game Thoughts: We are still anxiously awaiting the return
of Austin Ekeler, who returned to practice this week, but, at
least right now, he appears to be another week away. That means
at least one more week of heavy Kalen Ballage. There are multiple
columns by me on this site describing Ballage as the least talented
running back in NFL history, yet here we are not just talking
about his fantasy relevance, but actively promoting starting him.
Incredible. Ballage has averaged a 70% snap share over the past
two weeks with 24 opportunities to touch the ball each game (carries
+ targets). Ballage has been kept out of the end zone the past
two weeks, but that could change against a Bills’ defense
that has surrendered 15 rushing scores this season. With Ballage
being used heavily both on the ground and through the air, he’s
become a must start. Troymane Pope was never meant to be a heavily
used player and Joshua Kelley has evidently fallen out of favor
with the coaching staff. Fire up Ballage for as long as Ekeler
is out.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Josh Allen is either a top six QB1 or
a middling QB2 – nothing in between. After a four game stretch
as the latter, Allen’s two starts before the bye produced
overall QB2 and QB4 finishes. The Chargers allow just 228 passing
yards per game, but that’s largely been buoyed by a recent
run of bad opposing quarterbacks. Allen is an every week starter.
The same goes for his top target, Stefon Diggs, who has pretty
much been Keenan Allen east. Diggs averages 10 targets per game
and has at least six receptions in all but one game this season.
The Chargers allow 0.9 touchdowns per game to wide receivers and
this should be a high scoring affair. You’re obviously locking
Diggs into your lineups.
John Brown’s last two games have been quite impressive,
but he suffered an ankle injury at the tail end of the loss to
the Cardinals. If the bye week wasn’t enough to get Brown
ready, Gabriel Davis would take over that role, which has not
amounted to anything useful for fantasy. Cole Beasley was actually
the overall WR1 back in Week 10, but don’t let that fool
you into thinking he has this high ceiling. You can certainly
do worse than Beasley, who has established a solid floor, but
in between his last two 100-yard games were 2-24 and 3-39 stinkers.
Dawson Knox plays tight end for the Bills, but not for your fantasy
team.
LAC FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.14
LAC FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.11
LAC FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.27
LAC FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.7
Running Game Thoughts: The Bills seem disinterested in wasting
their time running the ball with their replacement level running
backs. Zack Moss narrowly out-snapped Devin Singletary against
the Cardinals, but neither was particularly productive. Singletary
has been the preferred option in the passing game, but he’s
not so superior to Moss that he warrants any sort of preferential
treatment. Whichever back runs the routes in this one could benefit
as no team faces more targets to the running back position than
the Chargers at 24% of targets against. Moss is the preferred
option because he is the goal line back, but neither running back
is exciting for fantasy.
Passing
Game Thoughts: While it's easy to scoff at the Giants'
3-7 record, they're just a couple of plays from riding a five-game
winning streak. Not much has changed for Daniel Jones during that
five-game run, though, as he's averaging 202 yards passing and
1.2 TDs per game. Those clearly aren't QB1 (or maybe even QB2)
numbers, but the second-year pro has stepped it up as a runner,
topping 60 yards on the ground in three of those five games and
averaging 50-plus for that stretch. That generates QB2 appeal.
With everyone healthy (and not suspended) things have gotten
a bit crowded in the Giants' passing game. At receiver, you have
Sterling Shepard (6-47-0 in Week 10), Darius Slayton (5-93-0)
and an on-his-best-behavior Golden Tate (2-44-0). In deciphering
the value of that group you have to view Slayton as holding the
most upside with Shepard being the steadiest play. Despite seeing
five targets before the bye it feels like Tate is clearly behind
the others in the pecking order. That makes Shepard a WR3, Slayton
a flex and Tate no more than bench depth.
Evan Engram (2-15-0) is also around, and in the three games leading
up to Week 10 he was targeted 29 times. Let's consider his light
workload against Philly an anomaly and pencil him in as a TE1.
Cincinnati has had secondary issues since training camp on, and
they're currently 23rd in the NFL with 254.7 yards allowed per
game.
CIN FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.12
CIN FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.18
CIN FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.9
CIN FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.4
Running Game Thoughts: With Devonta Freeman (ankle) on IR, Wayne
Gallman has filled in admirably. Over the last four games, Gallman
has averaged 63 total yards and racked up five touchdowns. His
yards per carry aren't imposing, but he's walking into a healthy
matchup versus the Bengals, which have allowed 136.2 rushing yards
per game (29th) and 5.0 yards per carry (31st). Gallman is a confidant
play as an RB3 that could over-deliver that designation.
5Passing
Game Thoughts: What had been a season of encouraging
development for the Bengals came to a halt last Sunday when Joe
Burrow (knee) suffered a season-ending knee injury and was replaced
by Ryan Finley. Cincy will bypass Finley for Brandon Allen in
Week 12, though, and go with the former sixth-round pick. Allen
has logged three starts in his career, all coming last season
with Denver where he went 1-2 and averaged 172 yards, 1 TD and
0.67 INTs per game.
Accuracy was an issue for Allen, and we'll see if that's improved
just by virtue of having a trio of talented targets in Tyler Boyd
(9-85-0 in Week 11), Tee Higgins (3-26-0) and A.J. Green (4-41-1).
Obviously the loss of Burrow is a blow to this group's outlook
the rest of the way, though Boyd, who is more of a possession
receiver, seems likely to retain a bigger share of his value than
the others. Allen might also look to lean on a veteran like Green,
which makes me most concerned for Higgins, who was on the rise.
The Giants sit 24th in the league against the pass (257.7 yards
per game), but they've played better recently and have done a
solid job of pressuring the quarterback. While this is very much
a wait-and-see situation with the Bengals, I'd keep Boyd as a
WR3 or even a low-end WR2, Higgins as a WR3 and Green as a flex
or bench option. Allen, meanwhile, should be left on waivers in
all but the deepest of leagues.
NYG FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.27
NYG FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.8
NYG FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.14
NYG FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.23
Running Game Thoughts: Although the Burrow injury is new, the
Bengals were already functioning without top back Joe Mixon (foot),
who remains on IR with a foot injury and is uncertain to return
this season. That leaves Gio Bernard (concussion) as the top back.
He started off well in Mixon's absence but has seen his numbers
dip over the last two games. The silver lining is he's a capable
receiver and could be a popular check-down target for Allen. Bernard
is dealing with a concussion, however, and if he's not cleared
the job will fall to Samaje Perine. If he's active, consider Bernard
an RB2/RB3 against a Giants defense that ranks an impressive sixth
against the run this season. If not, Perine could be plugged in
as a flex play.
Titans @ Colts
- (Swanson) Line: IND -3.5 Total: 50.5
Passing
Game Thoughts: Fresh off an overtime victory on the road
against the Ravens, the Titans head north to take on Philip Rivers
and the Colts at Lucas Oil Stadium.
Tannehill completed 22 of 31 passes for 259 yards and a pair
of touchdown passes. Corey Davis posted his third 100-yard game
of the season, A.J. Brown scored a touchdown on one of the better
catch and runs you will see, and Jonnu Smith bounced back from
a two-for-14 day against the Colts in Week 10 to catch his seventh
touchdown on the season.
The Titans lost to the Colts 34-17 two weeks ago in what was
the worst game of the year for Tannehill. He completed just 55%
of his passes for 147 yards and one score. Even with allowing
three passing touchdowns and over 300 yards last week to Aaron
Rodgers and the Packers, the Colts still give up just the third-fewest
points to opposing quarterbacks.
Rodgers did prove last week that you can pass on the Colts, but
he accomplished the feat with arguably the league’s best
wide receiver in Davante Adams and some big plays down the field
to MVS.
The Colts are one of only two teams who rank in the top five
in fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks, running backs, and tight
ends. Wide receivers have fared a little better but still outside
the top 20 in points per game.
There is no great way to attack the vaunted Indy defense. You
know Mike Vrabel and the Tennessee coaching staff will look to
run Derrick Henry early and often.
The Colts shut down A.J. Brown to the tune of just one catch
for 21 yards and a score, while Corey Davis delivered a respectable
67 yards on five catches. Both players are worthy of a start,
but expectations might need to be tempered.
IND FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.29
IND FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.30
IND FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.26
IND FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.30
Running Game Thoughts: Derrick Henry proved once again that he
is the best closing running back in the game, with a 29-yard game-winning
run in overtime to seal the 30-24 win. Henry is like a fine wine
that ages with time and carries, punishing defenders late and
submitting his will on the opposing defense.
The defending rushing champ posted a solid 103 yards on 19 carries
two weeks ago against the Colts, but he did not reach the end
zone in what turned out to be a blowout win for Indy. I doubt
the Colts will keep King Henry out of the end zone this week,
with another 100-yard game likely in the cards.
An injury to watch is guard Roger Saffold, who suffered a shoulder
injury when the two teams played back in Week 10. Saffold missed
most of the game against the Colts and last week’s game
against the Ravens. If Saffold is able to return to the field
this week, he will be a big boost to a Titans offensive line that
has been beaten down with injuries in 2020.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Philip Rivers and the Colts came back
from a 14-point deficit to hang on and beat Aaron Rodgers and
the Packers last week. Rivers threw for 288 yards and three scores,
including a long pass and run score for rookie wide receiver Michael
Pittman Jr. who continues to have the look of a late-season rookie
breakout candidate.
Pittman Jr. followed up a stellar 7/101/0 game last week against
the Titans to score the first NFL touchdown of his young career
last week vs. the Pack. Pittman should be in your lineup every
week in the future, as he appears to have gained the trust and
confidence of Rivers.
Rivers, on the other hand, is not someone you should start, and
neither are T.Y. Hilton, Zach Pascall, or any other Indianapolis
wide receivers. Outside of Pittman Jr., the only place to find
fantasy value in the passing game is with the tight ends and running
backs.
Both Trey Burton and Jack Doyle scored a receiving touchdown
last week vs. Green Bay, while Mo Alie-Cox was a bust, with just
two catches for 16 yards. If you guess right and start the tight
end who catches a touchdown from Rivers you will be happy. But
if you guess wrong and get one catch for six yards, you are going
to be upset all week long. It might be best to avoid Colts tight
ends altogether.
From a fantasy football matchup perspective, things do not get
much better for quarterbacks than lining up against the Titans.
Tennessee has given up the 6th-most points to quarterbacks, with
seven players reaching 20 or more fantasy points. Rivers himself
threw for 308 yards and a score two weeks ago.
Curiously, the two players who had the worst fantasy weeks of
the season vs. the Titans were Drew Lock (not a surprise) and
defending real-life and fantasy MVP Lamar Jackson. Jackson completed
just 58% of his passes and only managed to beat the Titans with
passes to tight ends. Considering Rivers is a much better pure
passer than Jackson, and the Colts feature tight ends, It would
not surprise us to see Rivers throw for over 250 yards and a few
scores.
TEN FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.6
TEN FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.10
TEN FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.4
TEN FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.9
Running Game Thoughts: Entering last week's game against the
Packers, only the Lions had given up more fantasy points per game
to opposing running backs than Green Bay. Eight opposing players
managed to reach double digits, including Dalvin Cook, who torched
the Pack for over 200 combined yards and six touchdowns in two
games.
The Colts boast arguably one of the best offensive lines in football
and someone many consider to be the best run-blocking guard in
Quentin Nelson. One would have thought that rookie Jonathan Taylor
and Nyheim Hines would torch the Pack for a monster game with
multiple rushing touchdowns.
Taylor did rush for 90 yards and added 24 yards in the passing
game. But the former Wisconsin Badger did not score, and he didn’t
even reach 100 yards despite getting 22 carries.
For someone who many thought would be a breakout candidate, Taylor
has been someone underwhelming and has not shown the outstanding
athleticism we all expected.
The Titans shut down Taylor back in Week 10 to the tune of seven
carries for 12 yards. You will want to start Taylor based on his
elite volume, but if running backs coach Tom Rathman likes what
he sees for Hines or Jordan Wilkins, Taylor could be a bust once
again.
Passing
Game Thoughts: After three straight games of terrible
fall weather and windy conditions in Cleveland, Baker Mayfield
and the Browns passing offense head on the road to take on the
Jacksonville Jaguars in what projects to be perfect football weather,
with a high of 74 and light winds.
In the bad weather games against the Raiders, Texans, and Eagles,
Mayfield failed to throw a single passing touchdown and topped
200 yards just once, as the Browns relied on a rushing attack
and their defense to win two of the contests.
This week’s matchup against a Jacksonville team that gives
up the third-most points to opposing quarterbacks may be a return
to fantasy form for Mayfield, who is likely on most waiver wires.
Every single quarterback except for Matthew Stafford has posted
at least 20 fantasy points vs. the Jags, including a monster 42-point
showing by rookie Justin Herbert back in Week 7.
If you have held onto Jarvis Landry this season, hoping for a
chance at a monster game from a disappointing veteran who currently
ranks 86th at the position, you may finally get your wish this
week. Look for Landry to get at least eight targets in this game,
with around 75 yards and a decent shot of a score.
Weather should not be a problem, but a negative game script created
by the Browns defense against Mike Glennon and the Browns running
wild with Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt could limit the need for
a ton of passes from Mayfield.
The Browns do not have injuries on the offensive side of the
ball that could negatively affect the production of the passing
game. They do have three injuries to their secondary, including
the loss of cornerback Denzel Ward, that could lead to a more
favorable game script.
JAC FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.3
JAC FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.6
JAC FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.8
JAC FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.6
Running Game Thoughts: The Jaguars are one of only a few teams
that rank in the bottom ten in points given up to quarterbacks,
running backs, and wide receivers. For a team like the Browns,
who are a run-first offense with the best one-two punch in the
league at RB in Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt, the outlook on Sunday
looks beyond juicy.
The dynamic duo is tied for second in rushing yards behind the
Vikings RBs, with Chubb averaging a ridiculous six yards per carry
Hunt leading all running backs with four receiving touchdowns.
The Jags have a ton of injuries that will adversely affect their
ability to limit both the rushing and passing attack of the Browns.
Starting defensive end Josh Allen suffered a knee injury that
will keep him out for this game and likely multi games down the
stretch of the fantasy season.
Safety Daniel Thomas and cornerbacks Chris Claybrooks and DJ
Hayden will also miss time with knee and groin injuries. Fellow
cornerback Sidney Jones is also listed as questionable, but he
is more likely to play than the other two.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Head Coach Doug Marrone has named Mike
Glennon the starter this week against the Browns. Rookie Jake
Luton has just two passing touchdowns in three games started this
season and has not topped 170 passing yards since Week 9 against
the Texans. His lack of passing touchdowns has greatly limited
the value of passing weapons like D.J. Chark, who has not caught
a touchdown since Week 9. Glennon is a career 60% passer with
just seven total passing touchdowns in his last 171 pass attempts
- not exactly someone you want to start on your fantasy roster.
It remains to be seen how Glennon will do under center and if
he will heavily target one of the receiving options or spread
the ball around.
Chark is only playable in matchups against teams that have a
bottom-ranked secondary that gives up a ton of points to wide
receivers. The Browns would fit into that category as the 11th
ranked team in fantasy points allowed to opposing WRs, and even
more so now that Denzel Ward, the team’s top cornerback,
is out with a calf injury.
The Browns could also be without backup safeties Ronnie Harrison
and Sheldrick Redwine, making an already shaky secondary more
shallow.
An interesting matchup to watch will be the play action passing
game of Glennon and the aggressive Browns safeties. Cleveland
is one of the better run-stopping defenses in the league because
of the aggressive play of their safeties in run support. With
Ward out, look for the Jags to try to beat the Browns subpar secondary
on multiple deep shots on play action, with the safeties out of
position in the middle of the field.
In addition to the loss of Ward, the Browns will be without defensive
player of the year candidate Myles Garrett, who will miss the
game due to testing positive for COVID-19. The lack of Garrett
in both run sport and the pass rush should help the Jags significantly.
The Browns will also be without Sione Takitaki after the linebacker
tested positive for COIVD-19. That means Cleveland will be without
their two best players because of COVID-19 and their best cornerback
due to injury. The Glennon news is not great for the skill players
on Jacksonville, but the depleted defense will certainly help.
CLE FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.7
CLE FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.22
CLE FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.10
CLE FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.3
Running Game Thoughts: James Robinson continues to impress with
94 yards on 19 touches against the stout Pittsburgh pass rush
last week. Robinson has at least seven fantasy points in every
game this sans and 11 or more points in six games.
He ranks 12th at the position on our Consistency Calculator tool,
ahead of Ezekiel Elliott, Todd Gurley, and Clyde Edwards-Helaire.
After starting the season as one of the more stout rushing defenses,
the Browns have been somewhat vulnerable as of late, with 100-yard
games give up to both James Conner and Josh Jacobs, and the duo
of Miles Sanders and Boston Scott combined for just under 150
total yards.
Look for Robinson to get at least 20 carries in this game and
finish with around 90 total yards and a possible score.
Panthers @ Vikings
- (Green) Line: MIN -4.0 Total: 51.0
Passing
Game Thoughts: With Teddy Bridgewater (knee) unable to
go last Sunday, the team turned to XFL import P.J. Walker, who
passed for 258 yards, a touchdown and two interceptions (both
of which occurred in the end zone) in a win over Detroit. It appears
the week off will do the trick in getting Bridgewater back on
the field as he's expected to make the start against his original
team this Sunday. That should serve as a little added motivation
for the veteran to bring his "A" game in Week 12.
With the offseason signing of Robby Anderson (7-46-0 last week)
and emergence of Curtis Samuel (8-70-1) as more than a gadget
guy, the Panthers suddenly feature one of the top threesomes at
the receiver position. At the top of that totem pole is D.J. Moore
(7-127-0), who has emerged as one of the game's most dangerous
downfield threats and a solid WR2 for fantasy purposes. That was
how the Jets viewed Anderson during his time there, but the fifth-year
pro has been reinvented as a strong possession option and perfect
complement to Moore. Samuel mans the slot and has done a little
bit of everything in 2020. He's a WR3 while Anderson mirrors Moore
as a WR2.
All three are quality plays this Sunday in part because of their
matchup with the Vikings, which rank 26th in passing yards allowed
(260.7 per game) and are tied for 29th in TD passes (22). There
should be plenty to go around, though Bridgewater's season-long
issues in the red zone (just 13 TD passes in nine starts) keep
him on the borderline of QB1/QB2 despite his receivers' value.
MIN FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.11
MIN FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.15
MIN FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.5
MIN FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.18
Running Game Thoughts: Christian McCaffrey (shoulder) is not
expected to play this week, which isn't a surprise since the Panthers
have a Week 13 bye. In his stead, Mike Davis (19-64-1) will get
the nod. Davis has been a nice find for the Panthers after several
nondescript seasons with the 49ers, Seahawks and Bears. He could
fill an RB2 slot in your lineup versus Minnesota's 22nd-ranked
run defense (122.1 yards per game).
Passing
Game Thoughts: After throwing a grand total of 34 passes
in his first two games after the bye, Kirk Cousins' usage has
increased markedly over the past two weeks with a combined 66
attempts. He played one of his better games of the year last Sunday
when he completed 22 of 30 passes for 314 yards, 3 TDs and no
turnovers. Down three in the final minutes with a chance to tie,
however, Cousins couldn't get a first down and Minnesota fell
to Dallas, 31-28, in a game that all but extinguished their playoff
hopes.
It's fair to wonder if Mike Zimmer will dial back the offense
to something closer to what we saw in Weeks 8 and 9 or if he'll
stick with more balance. Two players hoping for the latter are
Adam Thielen (8-123-2) and Justin Jefferson (3-86-1), who have
bounced back after posting anemic numbers in those earlier weeks.
Thielen is a technician as a route runner and the target of choice
in the red zone while Jefferson is more of a deep threat. At this
stage, Thielen's status for Sunday is TBD as he's currently on
the COVID-19 list. If he plays, consider both as WR2s with the
ability to under- or over-perform that spot. If not, elevate Jefferson
to WR1 status as the only game in town.
Carolina ranks 19th in the league in passing yardage allowed
(245.5 yards per game), and they've been an uneven group this
year. That's been underscored recently as they allowed 79 points
in Weeks 9 and 10 before shutting out the Lions last Sunday. With
so much uncertainty about which Panthers team will show up, not
to mention what game-plan Zimmer will green light, Cousins is
a QB2 or bench option.
CAR FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.19
CAR FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.5
CAR FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.23
CAR FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.11
Running Game Thoughts: Dalvin Cook (27-115-1) continues to function
as the engine of the Minnesota offense. His usage over the past
month has been insanely high with him averaging 31 touches, 188
yards and 1.75 TDs per game. That feels unsustainable, and it's
unclear why the team has no confidence in Alexander Mattison.
For the time being, Cook is a surefire RB1 against the 17th-ranked
run defense of Carolina that has given up 116.8 yards per game
this season.
Cardinals at Patriots
- (Katz) Line: ARI -1.5 Total: 49.0
Passing
Game Thoughts: 2019’s rookie of the year is now
right up there with Patrick Mahomes for MVP. Kyler Murray has
been, by far, the best fantasy quarterback. He has yet to finish
lower than overall QB10 and has seven top five finishes. 23.1
fantasy points is his floor. For Murray, the fact that the Patriots
feature multiple shut down corners does not matter. For DeAndre
Hopkins, it might. Murray is going to get his numbers, but it’s
possible this is more of a Christian Kirk/Larry Fitzgerald game
with Bill Belichick committed to erasing Hopkins.
Fitz is coming off his best game of the season with eight catches
for 62 yards. Unfortunately, Fitz tested positive for Covid on
Thursday and will not be able to play. Andy Isabella should assume
Fitz’s snaps, but Isabella is terrible. He can always catch
a long one, but do not go relying on him for any consistent production.
Christian Kirk was dismissed early in the season, but he’s
actually been quite the useful little player. He had a four game
stretch of at least WR2 production from Weeks 5-9. The last two
weeks have been duds, but I like Kirk’s chances to bounce
back this week.
NE FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.20
NE FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.21
NE FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.20
NE FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.28
Running Game Thoughts: Kenyan Drake’s return hasn’t
seen him thrust into a clear lead back role based on snaps, but
the touch counts tell a different story. Drake has played 50%
of the snaps the past two weeks, but has out-touched Chase Edmonds
32-17. Edmonds is nothing more than a desperation back of the
starting lineup option. Drake’s volume has him back in the
RB2 realm, but he just hasn’t been very good. The Patriots
allow just 21.9 fantasy points per game to running backs and are
particularly good defending running backs out of the backfield.
Just 13% of the receiving yards they’ve allowed have gone
to running backs. I doubt you have a much better option than Drake,
but neither Cardinals’ running back is anything resembling
a must start.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Cam Newton just can’t seem to get
it done both on the ground and through the air anymore. It’s
either one or the other. Last week, he threw for 365 yards, but
only rushed three times for six yards. Newton’s rushing
numbers have been way down since early in the season. The Cardinals
allow just 3.0 rushing fantasy points per game to quarterbacks.
Those numbers are often skewed based on what quarterbacks a team
faced, though. Newton is still a rushing threat and banking on
his passing numbers is a risky proposition.
His top receiver remains Jakobi Meyers, notwithstanding last
week’s dud. I wouldn’t go chasing Damiere Byrd’s
6-132-1 line. The Cardinals allow 40.9 fantasy points per game
to wide receivers. N’Keal Harry had a respectable eight
targets last week, but he can be left on the waiver wire. If Newton’s
accuracy is there this week, he should be able to throw effectively.
ARI FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.9
ARI FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.20
ARI FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.7
ARI FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.26
Running Game Thoughts: Sony Michel is healthy now, but he was
inactive last week because he’s the worst running back on
the Patriots. With Rex Burkhead done for the season, Michel will
likely be active this week and could eat into Damien Harris’
early down role. Harris’ carry count is strong, but he’s
playing fewer than 40% of the snaps. James White saw his role
increase last week after Burkhead went down, playing a season
high 57% of the snaps. If the Patriots are in negative game script,
White could be heavily used down the stretch. He’s hard
to trust after just one productive game, but he’s worth
a shot if you’re in a bind.
Just 14% of the receiving yards allowed by the Cardinals have
gone to running backs and they allow just 22.6 fantasy points
per game to the position. Harris is a touchdown or bust option
as he is never used in the passing game (he has four targets all
season). White feels a bit safer, but it’s difficult to
know until we see what Belichick chooses to do in a post-Burkhead
world.
Dolphins at Jets
- (Katz) Line: MIA -7.0 Total: 44.5
Passing
Game Thoughts: Brian Flores can spin it any way he wants,
but saying that Ryan Fitzpatrick gave his team the best chance
to win in the fourth quarter last week is a scathing indictment
of Tua Tagovailoa. Tua has now failed to reach 100 passing yards
in two of his four starts and only surpassed 200 yards once. Making
the switch to Tua, but actively hiding him and running as much
as possible seems like a strange decision.
Tua is supposedly going to remain the starter this week at the
Jets, where the Dolphins look to bounce back from an embarrassing
loss, but he has been limited in practice with a left thumb injury,
which is something to monitor. The Dolphins shut out the Jets
in their last meeting behind 191 yards and three touchdowns from
Fitzpatrick. Whomever starts at quarterback, the volume is unlikely
to be there.
Despite the favorable matchup against a Jets defense allowing
22.3 fantasy points per game to quarterbacks, the Dolphins’
projected positive game script and run heavy game plan makes starting
either Tua or Fitzpatrick less than ideal. The Jets allow 42.3
fantasy points per game to wide receivers. Even if there is a
run heavy scheme, there will be enough pass attempts for DeVante
Parker to produce. He saw eight targets in the previous contest.
Outside of Parker, there’s not much here without Preston
Williams. Jakeem Grant, Malcolm Perry, and Mike Gesicki all vie
for secondary and tertiary targets, but none are fantasy options.
NYJ FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.4
NYJ FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.7
NYJ FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.6
NYJ FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.10
Running Game Thoughts: Myles Gaskin was designated to return
from IR this week, but that does not mean he will necessarily
play. Typically, when players are set to return, it takes a week
or two before they are activated. Salvon Ahmed has been the clear
primary back the past two games, but he is currently dealing with
a shoulder injury. Check on his final status after Friday’s
practice. Regardless of who starts at running back for the Dolphins,
he will be a solid play for a team that wants to run against a
defense can’t stop the run.
The Jets allow 25.9 fantasy points per game to running backs.
Their overall inability to stop either the run or the pass puts
opposing offenses in scoring position, which is what we want for
our running backs in fantasy. Matt Breida was the clear backup
to Ahmed and he would figure to touch the ball the most if both
Ahmed and Gaskin do not play. If both Ahmed and Gaskin play, my
guess is Gaskin leads a committee 60-40. If just one of them plays,
that’s the guy you want.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Sam Darnold returned to practice this
week, but it is still looking like Joe Flacco will be under center
for one more week. The Jets are certainly going to try as no one
wants to go winless and they are running out of opportunities.
Unfortunately, there’s not much here for fantasy. Denzel
Mims led the team with eight targets and 71 yards last week. His
usage is encouraging, but the quarterback play is always going
to hold him back. Breshad Perriman is a touchdown hopeful. Jamison
Crowder was once a PPR must start, but after a three target, one
reception game, he can’t be trusted. Chris Herndon caught
a touchdown last week as well. You’re not starting Chris
Herndon. The Dolphins have two shut down corners in Byron Jones
and Xavien Howard. The Jets haven’t scored a point against
this team yet. Just avoid all Jets.
MIA FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.10
MIA FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.13
MIA FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.16
MIA FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.24
Running Game Thoughts: The same goes for the running backs. With
La’Mical Perine out with a high ankle sprain, Frank Gore
is once again the top dog in the Jets backfield. Gore touched
the ball 17 times last week and scored his first touchdown of
the season. Gore’s volume has always made him a target on
the waiver wire when the starter in front of him inevitably goes
down, but Gore just never produces. He’s seldom used in
the passing game and just 17% of targets against the Dolphins
go to running backs. Touchdown or bust options are not great starts
and that’s especially pronounced when those players are
on the Jets. It’s possible Ty Johnson gets more involved
this week. He at least has some juice and could be worth a flier
if you have the spot, but you’re not using him this week.
Passing
Game Thoughts: As has been the case for most of 2020,
nothing came easily for Lamar Jackson in Sunday's loss to the
Titans. His reads looked slow, and his delivery was off target
at times. When the final whistle blew, Jackson had completed 17
of 29 balls for 186 yards, one TD and an INT. He added 51 yards
on 13 rushes, but with each game that goes by it's becoming increasingly
obvious that the 2019 version of Jackson and the Ravens offense
isn't going to make an appearance this season.
That being said, the Ravens are likely to need more from Jackson
this Thursday due to issues with their running backs. That effort
starts with Mark Andrews (5-96-1 in Week 11), who is Jackson's
most dependable and consistent target; he's a solid TE1. Marquise
Brown was supposed to serve as the top receiver, but he has just
six catches in his last four games combined. Willie Snead went
over 100 yards against Pittsburgh back in Week 8 and has been
the more productive option of late. Both players are risky flex
plays with modest upside. Dez Bryant (4-28-0 in Week 12) is watch-list
material.
Pittsburgh is among the NFL's best, allowing just 203.5 passing
yards per game and leading the league in both sacks (38) and interceptions
(15). They've made life miserable on Jackson in the last two meetings,
sacking him nine times and forcing seven turnovers. Despite this,
Jackson holds fringe QB1 value in a game where he'll likely be
asked to pick up the slack of a depleted running game.
Update: Lamar Jackson
has tested positve for COVID-19 and will not play Sunday, if the
game is played.
PIT FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.30
PIT FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.31
PIT FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.18
PIT FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.31
Running Game Thoughts: As mentioned, the Ravens will have a streamlined
look in their backfield as both J.K. Dobbins and Mark Ingram will
miss the game after being placed on the COVID-19 list. That means
Gus Edwards (16-87-1 vs. PIT in Week 8) will be the primary back
with Justice Hill as the backup. While the Steelers are a top-10
defense against the run, Baltimore hit them for 265 yards on 47
rushes in their first meeting. Edwards is a confident play as
an RB2 that could easily return RB1 value given what's expected
to be high usage.
Passing
Game Thoughts: While the Steelers' ground game was more
effective than it had been recently, Pittsburgh still threw the
ball 46 times against the Jaguars compared to 27 runs (including
kneel downs). The numbers weren't huge for Ben Roethlisberger,
who threw for 267 yards, two TDs and an interception (his first
since Week 7). During the first meeting with the Ravens, Pittsburgh
ran just 50 plays with the veteran throwing for 182 yards in a
game that was primarily won on defense. The offense is clicking
now, though, and Roethlisberger could still be played as a QB1.
Whether or not top target JuJu Smith-Schuster (toe) will play
remains unclear after he was injured against Jacksonville and
didn't return. He was able to practice on Wednesday so he’s
trending in the right direction. Minus Smith-Schuster, Diontae
Johnson (12-111-0 in Week 11) led the way while Chase Claypool
(4-59-1) scored his 10th TD of 2020. If Smith-Schuster is active
he'd rate as a WR2/WR3 as there'd still be some concern about
his ability to handle a full load. Johnson looks like the steadiest
play while Claypool has emerged as a frequent red-zone option.
Both can be deployed as WR2s.
Eric Ebron (4-36-1) continues to carve out a niche as a touchdown-dependant
TE1, especially given the lack of reliable fantasy options at
the position. They'll face a Ravens squad that is seventh against
the pass (217 per game) but failed to make stops late in their
loss to what had been a struggling Tennessee offense this past
Sunday.
BAL FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.26
BAL FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.19
BAL FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.28
BAL FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.14
Running Game Thoughts: James Conner (13-89-0) shook off consecutive
poor outings by averaging 6.8 yards per carry against the Jags.
Unfortunately, he stepped aside near the goal line and watched
Benny Snell step in and vulture a touchdown. Baltimore held up
early against Derrick Henry in Week 11 but faded late, ultimately
allowing 173 yards on the ground -- that's well above their season
average of 116. Consider Conner, who ran for 47 yards and a score
in the first meeting, an RB2 this weekend.
Saints at Broncos
- (Caron) Line: NO -6.0 Total: 43.5
Passing
Game Thoughts: The Taysom Hill/ESPN tight end controversy
has been put to rest, but Hill’s fantasy relevance surged
across other platforms this past week after the 30-year-old made
his first NFL start this past week. Albeit on mostly short passes,
Hill completed 18 of his 23 pass attempts against the Falcons
for 233 yards. He didn’t throw a touchdown, but he also
didn’t throw and interception, which allowed his fantasy
production to shine as he ran the ball 10 times for 51 yards and
a touchdown. We all knew that Hill’s primary value would
likely be in his legs, and that he could end up being essentially
the team’s goal line runner while he’s behind center,
so this wasn’t much of a surprise, but it was good to be
validated in our assumptions that he is, indeed, a worthwhile
fantasy asset as long as he’s the primary quarterback for
the Saints. Of course, there remains a concern that he could end
up getting benched mid-game if he’s struggling, particularly
if the Saints fall behind on the scoreboard, given that Jameis
Winston is waiting on the sidelines with a clipboard in hand,
but the reward might just be worth the risk regarding this mobile
QB.
Hill being the Saints’ starting quarterback was widely believed
to be a massive downgrade for wide receiver Michael Thomas. Thomas
had missed most of the first half of the season due to injury
and off-field issues and had struggled in the two games he played
prior to Week 11 so a move to Hill had many owners concerned that
the top-scoring WR from 2019 may not be a fantasy stud again until
Brees returned. Hill, however, would make up for a low overall
passing volume day by absolutely keying in on his team’s
top pass catcher. Hill targeted Thomas on 12 of his 23 pass attempts,
giving Thomas a monstrous 52 percent target share for the day.
Thomas caught nine of those passes for 104 yards, proving that
he can still be productive in this offense even with a less-than-prolific
passer behind center. Thomas remains a WR1 for fantasy - albeit
a low-end one - this week as the Saints head to Denver to face
the Broncos.
Denver has been decent against opposing wide receivers this season
but they’ve also had the benefit of playing a few of the
lowest-volume passing games in the league. High-level receivers
like Keenan Allen, Tyreek Hill, DeVante Parker, Chris Godwin,
Mike Evans, Diontae Johnson, Chase Claypool and Julio Jones have
all scored touchdowns against the Broncos this season, which should
give fantasy owners a fair bit of confidence that Thomas can provide
fantasy production here in Week 12.
Unfortunately, despite Hill’s connection with Thomas, the
same cannot exactly be said about Hill with the other members
of this New Orleans passing attack. Emmanuel Sanders did catch
four of his five targets for 66 yards, but that’s just not
enough volume for us to be confident in him for fantasy purposes
right now. The only other member of this passing game who could
even potentially be on the radar this week would be tight end
Jared Cook, but he faces an awful matchup against the Broncos,
one of the league’s best defenses against opposing tight
ends. Denver hasn’t allowed a touchdown to an opposing tight
end since all the way back in Week 1 and they’ve since held
the likes of Travis Kelce, Darren Waller, Rob Gronkowski, Hunter
Henry, Eric Ebron, Hayden Hurst and Mike Gesicki to 62 or fewer
receiving yards - with no touchdowns - since. Cook is typically
only a borderline starter on a week to week basis anyway, so look
for another option this week as this is as brutal of a matchup
as it gets.
DEN FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.21
DEN FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.17
DEN FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.19
DEN FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.22
Running Game Thoughts: We knew the New Orleans passing game would
look different with Taysom Hill leading the charge, but what no
one expected was that the running game would also look dramatically
different in Week 11. Alvin Kamara carried the ball just 13 times
for 45 yards in that contest while backup Latavius Murray took
12 carries for 49 yards, nearly evenly splitting the backfield
workload. Perhaps most importantly, concerns about Kamara’s
passing game usage with Hill at QB were validated as the back
who had caught at least three passes in every game prior was held
without a catch on the day. Kamara did emerge from the game with
a bit of a foot injury, and the Saints were up multiple scores
late in the game so they didn’t need to rely on Kamara,
but there is some worry that the Saints may opt to utilize what
essentially equates to a three-headed backfield with Kamara, Murray
and Hill himself, particularly near the goal line.
While Kamara has to still be considered an RB1 given the gigantic
upside we’ve seen from him throughout the season, there’s
little question that this switch of offensive philosophies is
harmful to his usage. Thankfully this week he does face a Broncos
run defense that has allowed Josh Jacobs and Devontae Booker to
combine for over 200 rushing yards and four total touchdowns against
them just two weeks ago, so there’s some potential for a
high-end RB1 day for Kamara even if Murray remains nearly as involved
as he was in Week 11. Murray himself is still too risky to play
at the moment but we’ll monitor the situation this week
and reassess for Week 13.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Drew Lock’s struggles continued
in Week 11 against the Dolphins as the second-year QB completed
just 18 passes and failed to throw a touchdown pass. He also threw
an interception, bringing his streak to six straight games with
at least one pick, and a total of 11 interceptions over that span.
The volume in Denver just is not high enough to make up for Lock’s
turnover problems so he shouldn’t be looked at as anything
more than a low-end QB2 this week against a Saints pass defense
that has only allowed one passing touchdown against them in their
past three games.
Lock himself has struggled, but the pass catching weapons in Denver
have had their moments this season. Wide receiver Tim Patrick
has been quietly productive as he’s now finished with double-digit
PPR fantasy points in six of his past seven games, including this
past week when he caught five passes for a season-high 119 yards
on eight targets. If it were just Patrick in the passing game
then it’d be much easier to trust him as a fantasy option
but the Broncos actually have a decent number of passing game
weapons and they just don’t have a high enough volume offense
to feed all of them. As such, rookie wideout Jerry Jeudy has mostly
been a disappointment from a fantasy standpoint so far this season
as he’s only exceeded 75 receiving yards once and he’s
only scored two touchdowns on the season. While he’s certainly
the more well-known player between the two, Jeudy has been outperformed
by Patrick on a per-game basis and could see plenty of coverage
from cornerback Marshon Lattimore this week, so it’s probably
best to keep him benched here in Week 12.
The only passing game target in the Denver offense who really
has starter potential this week in most fantasy leagues is tight
end Noah Fant. While Fant hasn’t had many big games, he’s
caught at least three passes in every game this season which is
more than most of the non-elite tight ends can say. He’s
been targeted at least five times in all but one game so far in
2020 so the volume potential is always there for him to have a
fairly big game. Fant isn’t more than a low-end TE1 but
that’s about as good as it gets in Denver.
NO FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.23
NO FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.32
NO FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.15
NO FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.13
Running Game Thoughts: Melvin Gordon got back to some semblance
of fantasy value this past week when the veteran took 15 carries
for 84 yards and a pair of touchdowns against the Dolphins. Most
importantly, Gordon visually looked to be rejuvenated which has
to give fantasy owners at least some hope this week as he heads
into what will be the most difficult on-paper matchup that he
faces all season. The Saints have given up the league’s
fewest fantasy points to opposing running backs so far this season,
including having held their past three opponents’ backfields
to just a combined 112 total rushing yards with zero touchdowns.
While Gordon is still the back you want to own in this backfield,
he’s been essentially splitting carries with Phillip Lindsay
in recent weeks which further limits his upside. To make matters
worse, Gordon has become less and less involved in the passing
game with each passing week as he has now caught just one pass
over his past three games combined.
Gordon should still probably be considered a Flex in most leagues
but it’s tough to trust him as an RB2 even coming off of
a quality fantasy performance against Miami. He, and to a further
extent Linsday, are low upside options who have potential game
script problems if the Broncos fall behind on the scoreboard.
49ers at Rams
- (Caron) Line: LAR -7.0 Total: 45.0
Passing
Game Thoughts: The 49ers hope that a bye week has their
team recharged and repaired heading into their pivotal Week 12
matchup with the division-leading Rams. While San Francisco is
not technically out of playoff contention, things are looking
worse by the week in what could be a lost season as they sit at
the bottom of one of the league’s best divisions. If they
want a shot at the playoffs, this is essentially a must-win game
for San Francisco and we have to assume that they will be very
prepared for this week’s contest.
The unfortunate reality is that, even with plenty of preparation,
the team is still trotting out Nick Mullens as their starting
quarterback. While Mullens has shown competence in the past, he’s
still a low volume passer who lacks upside as a runner, doesn’t
have a huge arm and won’t likely be trusted to throw the
ball much more than 35 times in any game this season. With George
Kittle and Brandon Aiyuk sidelined this week, an already consolidated
target share situation becomes even tighter. Wide receiver Deebo
Samuel has been able to practice in limited capacity this week
and could suit up, but otherwise it’s looking like we could
see another heavy usage game for wide receiver Richie James. James
has quietly been targeted 18 times over the past two weeks, catching
12 passes for 210 yards and a touchdown over that span. The concern,
of course, is that the Rams may opt to use star Jalen Ramsey in
shadow coverage against James if Samuel is unable to play. That
would be a huge hit to James’ potential and it’s enough
to have us avoiding him in seasonal leagues. If you want to throw
him in as a low-priced DFS tournament option in hopes that he
doesn’t see shadow coverage from Ramsey then you might be
able to extract some value, but other than that he’s probably
a pass here in Week 12.
Tight end Jordan Reed (illness) is probably the only player who’s
realistically on the fantasy radar in this passing offense here
in Week 12. Reed caught five of the six targets that came his
way in Week 10, converting them for 62 yards, including an impressive
circus catch. He’s not likely to be a high upside option
but Reed has produced when Kittle has been off the field in the
past so it wouldn’t be all that surprising if he turned
in a TE1 performance this week. He’s a low-end option but
you could do worse if you’re in a tough spot.
LAR FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.31
LAR FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.29
LAR FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.32
LAR FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.16
Running Game Thoughts: The 49ers remain non-committal about Raheem
Mostert’s ability to suit up in Week 12, so the 49ers backfield
remains one that is unpredictable at best. We do expect Mostert
back and he should immediately find himself in the RB2 conversation
once that becomes official, but for now we need to pay close attention
to the situation. In addition to Moster’s potential return,
it also remains possible that veteran Tevin Coleman may also make
his return to the lineup, further muddying an already ugly situation.
If Coleman and Mostert are inactive, however, this backfield could
go from being a total question mark to one that is extremely clear,
as Jerick McKinnon would essentially be the only back on the active
roster who has any real NFL experience. McKinnon has touched the
ball 34 times over the 49ers’ past two games, both blowout
losses, which should give us some confidence in him heading into
Week 12.
The 49ers running backs combined for 120 rushing yards on 32 carries
in victory when these teams played back in Week 6, so there’s
some potential here for the 49ers’ lead back to have some
pretty decent fantasy value in this one.
Passing
Game Thoughts: It’s hard to get too excited about
Jared Goff as he just lacks the upside to be a consistent QB1
given his lack of mobility, but there are still times - like in
Week 11’s game against the Buccaneers - when the Rams let
him throw the ball 50 times and he produces a 350-yard, multi-touchdown
game. In Week 12 he’ll face a 49ers defense that he threw
for a season low of just 198 yards against back in Week 6 and
that came in a loss so it wasn’t game script-related. The
49ers have only been middle-of-the-pack against opposing quarterbacks
as a whole this season, but they’ve actually held most opposing
QBs in check. Only three quarterbacks - Aaron Rodgers, Russell
Wilson and Ryan Fitzpatrick - have thrown for more than two touchdowns
against this defense and only Goff himself threw for two scores
against the 49ers in that mediocre Week 6 performance. Other than
that, the 49ers have kept most quarterbacks they’ve faced
in check, at least through the air.
While Goff is only a QB2 this week, as he is most weeks, he continues
to key in on his top two pass catching weapons and that extremely
consolidated target share has allowed both Robert Woods and Cooper
Kupp to be in consideration as high-end WR2s, if not low-end WR1s.
Woods was able to salvage an otherwise ugly fantasy day when these
teams played back in Week 6 as he caught just four passes for
29 yards, but he did get into the end zone. Kupp, on the other
hand, had what was by far his worst game of the season in that
Week 6 matchup, catching just three passes for 11 yards and no
touchdowns. Nevertheless, this does - at least on paper - look
like another potentially strong week from Woods and Kupp who both
produced monster games this past week. No one else in the Los
Angeles offense, including wide receiver Josh Reynolds and tight
ends Tyler Higbee and Gerald Everett, have been producing anything
other than replacement-level numbers, so look for Goff to target
Woods and Kupp each with around 20-to-25 percent his targets.
SF FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.17
SF FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.27
SF FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.22
SF FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.32
Running Game Thoughts: We thought we had some clarity in the Rams
backfield earlier this season, but things have continued to deteriorate
and it appears that we have a full blown, three man committee
in Los Angeles - and an unproductive one at that.
Darrell Henderson has to still be considered the top player in
this backfield, but what good is that really for fantasy owners
when he’s now failed to exceed even 10 touches in a game
since Week 7? Henderson has been held to 4.0 or fewer yards per
carry in half of his games this season and he hasn’t caught
more than two passes in any game, so there just isn’t enough
here for him to be anything more than a low-end, touchdown-dependent
Flex option.
Meanwhile veteran Malcolm Brown and rookie Cam Akers have continued
to be sprinkled into the offense, but neither of them has done
much on a per-carry basis and Akers hasn’t even scored a
touchdown yet.
This is a bad backfield for fantasy purposes and one that we need
to be avoiding this week as they face a 49ers defense that has
given up the seventh-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing
running backs so far this season.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Another week of football goes by and another
300-yard, three-touchdown performance for Patrick Mahomes and
the potent Kansas City Chiefs passing game. With 3035 passing
yards, 27 touchdowns, and just two interceptions, Mahomes is atop
a short list of MVP candidates and continues to be a fantasy stud.
Mahomes is fifth among quarterbacks on our Consistency Calculator,
with two or more passing touchdowns in all but one game this season.
The only game in which Mahomes did not reach 20 fantasy points
and multiple passing touchdowns was a snow game against Denver
in Week 7 when the Chiefs defense dominated the Broncos in a 43-16
shellacking.
The Bucs young defense turned heads when they held Aaron Rodgers
to 9.4 fantasy points in Week 6. They had constant pressure on
Rodgers and forced two interceptions, including a pick-six that
sealed the game early in the second quarter.
Since that time, the Bucs have looked very mediocre on defense
with five-straight 20 point games allowed to opposing quarterbacks,
highlighted by Jake Goff’s 376/3 game on Monday Night Football.
Tampa Bay has given up the 5th-most points to quarterbacks over
the past five games and is tied for the most touchdowns given
up to opposing tight ends. Fire up Kelce and expect around 75
yards and a score.
The Bucs are dominant when they shut down the run and get pressure
on the quarterback. They will most likely shut down the run game
of the Chiefs, but they will have trouble getting to Mahomes,
as the Chiefs give up the forth-fewest sacks per game. If they
blitz, Mahomes and Co. will burn them with quick passes and screens.
If they rush four and play coverage, Mahomes will move around
and hit one of his many options on the run.
There is simply no right way to defend the Chiefs passing attack,
and Mahomes is a must-start. He is even more of a great start
in a game like this that has a high over-under. The Bucs will
put up some points on the suspect Kansas City defense as well,
leading to at least 30 pass attempts for Mahomes.
TB FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.18
TB FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.24
TB FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.17
TB FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.15
Running Game Thoughts: Only the Saints and the Steelers have
given up fewer points to opposing running backs than the Bucs,
and not defense has given up fewer rushing yards. Tampa Bay is
on pace to give up a league-low 848 yards this season.
Rookie Clyde Edwards-Helaire overcame a slow start and is quietly
rising up the leaderboard for running backs. CEH struggled with
five carries for 14 yards and six carries for 21 yards against
the Panthers and the Jets but bounced back big time with 69 yards
and a pair of scores against the Raiders last week.
Considering how stout the run defense is for the Bucs it would
make sense for Andy Reid to focus more on the pass than the run.
That is not good news for CEH, as Le’Veon Bell and Darrel
Williams are better pass catchers so far this season and continue
to be used in that fashion.
CEH is a must-start, but if he does not reach the end zone, he
is going to disappoint with low yards vs. Tampa Bay.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Tom Brady looked very much like a 43-year
old man against the Rams on Monday Night Football. He made terrible
throws, including two-head scratching interceptions, and he cannot
throw the ball downfield with power or accuracy.
When facing a top defense with a stout pass rush, Brady has been
mediocre at best. The good news for Brady and his fantasy managers
is the Chiefs rank 21st in sacks per game, and their secondary
is not very good at stopping opposing passing attacks.
Teddy Bridgewater and Derek Carr have a combined 585 passing
yards and six total touchdowns in each of the past two weeks,
as the Chiefs gave up 62 points combined in those games.
Look for Brady to bounce back in a big way, with at least 300
yards and two passing touchdowns on Sunday. The Chiefs do not
have playmakers in the secondary to match up against Mike Evans,
Antonio Brown, Chris Godwin, and Rob Gronkowski, so if Brady can
get enough pass protection, he should be able to have a solid
fantasy day.
Starting center A.Q. Shipley, guard Ali Marpet, and tackle Donovan
Smith are all list as questionable for the game. Their health
and ability to play at a high level will be critical for the fantasy
success for Brady and the passing weapons.
Shipley did an excellent job limiting Aaron Donald, and Marpet
is widely considered one of the best guards in the league.
KC FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.22
KC FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.12
KC FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.29
KC FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.21
Running Game Thoughts: It would make a ton of sense for the Bucs
to try and run the ball on Sunday to help take the pressure off
of Brady and the offensive line while also keeping Mahomes and
the Chiefs offense on the sideline.
You can run on Kansas City, and opposing running backs have had
some success this year. The Chiefs rank 15th in fantasy points
given up to running backs. Eight opposing backs have at least
ten fantasy points, including Josh Jacobs, who had 12.4 points
last week on Sunday Night Football.
The question is who will be the primary back for the Bucs and
will either one of them be able to hold onto the ball and secure
passes from Tom Brady. Leonard Fournette looked like he had butter
on his hands against the Rams, and Ronald Jones did not run the
ball effectively despite torching the Panthers back in Week 10.
Passing
Game Thoughts: When we last saw the Bears, Nick Foles
(hip) was being carted off the field at the end of a Week 10 loss
to Minnesota. While the injury turned out to not be as severe
as initially feared, it's unclear who will be under center when
Chicago visits Lambeau Field on Sunday night. Foles has yet to
practice, while Mitchell Trubisky (shoulder), who has been dealing
with an injury of his own, looks to be further along in his recovery.
At this point it could either of them, or even Tyler Bray, in
Week 12, though none of them would be worth starting.
About the only definite starter for the Bears is Allen Robinson
(6-43-0 in Week 10), who has been a steady source of receptions
no matter who is delivering the ball. He topped 100 yards in both
of his meetings with the Packers in 2019 and should be a WR1/WR2
this week. Jimmy Graham could also hold fringe TE1 appeal in his
return to Green Bay after being released during the offseason,
though the veteran has slowed considerably, scoring once in his
last five games after posting four TDs in the first five.
While Green Bay ranks 13th in the NFL in passing yards (230.6
per game), they've dealt with injuries on the backend for much
of 2020. Last Sunday marked the first time Jaire Alexander and
Kevin King played together since Week 4, and Alexander has developed
a reputation for locking down top receivers in primetime games.
It shouldn't dissuade anyone from playing Robinson, but it's worth
noting.
GB FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.28
GB FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.3
GB FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.25
GB FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.25
Running Game Thoughts: Chicago used Cordarrelle
Patterson (12-30-0) as their primary back in Week 10, but David
Montgomery has cleared the NFL's concussion protocol and is set
to return this Sunday. Montgomery has been a high-volume, low-efficiency
option this season, averaging 18 touches per game but just 4.3
yards per touch. The Packers rank an identical 13th against the
run (113.7 yards per game) but have struggled with physical running
attacks this season. Montgomery is an RB2/RB3 this week.
Passing
Game Thoughts: It was a weird game for Aaron Rodgers,
as the Packers took it to the Colts' top-tier defense in the first
half, racking up 28 points, only to struggle with just three points
after halftime. Turnovers were a big issue, including two from
the always careful Rodgers, who was intercepted and fumbled a
center exchange. He still ended the day with 311 yards passing
and three TDs, but there was more to be had. The Bears are a familiar
foil for No. 12, who passed for exactly 203 yards, 1 TD and 0
INTs in each of his 2019 matchups with Chicago.
Of course, this version of Green Bay's offense is much more potent,
and Davante Adams (7-106-1) continues to lead the charge -- in
fact, his 68-847-10 line across eight games equates to a ridiculous
136-1,694-20 pace over a full 16-game slate. The Packers got Allen
Lazard (2-18-0) back from core muscle surgery last week, though
it appeared as though they tried to ease him back. Marquez Valdes-Scantling
(3-55-0) saw most of the work as the No. 2 receiver, delivering
a couple of big plays but ultimately fumbling away the game in
overtime. He'll be looking for some redemption this Sunday.
Chicago is 10th against the pass this year (225 yards per game),
and only the Rams have surrendered fewer TD passes (12). Much
of that applied to the Colts last week, too, and they had only
modest success in containing Rodgers, who feels like a midrange
QB1. As for the others: Adams is a WR1, MVS is a flex, and Lazard
and Robert Tonyan (5-44-1) are better suited on your bench.
CHI FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.32
CHI FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.23
CHI FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.30
CHI FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.8
Running Game Thoughts: Aaron Jones (10-41-1) and Jamaal Williams
(5-12-0) split the duties as usual, though it was odd to see Williams
get the nod during the game-tying two-minute drive. Both contributed
in the passing game with Jones adding 30 yards on four receptions
and Williams snagging a four-yard TD pass. Chicago, which ranks
14th against the run (115.1 yards per game) will make you earn
it, but Jones still holds RB1 appeal (he ran for two TDs vs. CHI
in their last meeting) with Williams as a flex.
Seahawks at Eagles
- (Katz) Line: SEA -5.5 Total: 50.0
Passing
Game Thoughts: After one game without a touchdown two
weeks ago, Russell Wilson was back to his multi-touchdown ways
against the Cardinals. That’s the good news. The bad news
is he attempted a season low 28 passes and threw for a season
low 197 yards. Although the Eagles are a bad football team, look
for Wilson to get back on track this week.
The Eagles only allow 18.1 fantasy points per game to quarterbacks,
but don’t let that deter you from starting Wilson (not that
anyone is thinking about benching him). The same goes for DK Metcalf
and Tyler Lockett. Metcalf scored last week, but has caught just
five total passes the past two weeks for 74 total yards. The Eagles’
stinginess against wide receivers can be attributed to a favorable
NFC East schedule. You’re starting Metcalf and Lockett,
who caught all nine of his targets last week for 67 yards and
a touchdown. The Eagles have been vulnerable to the tight end
this season, with opponents targeting the position 23% of the
time. Unfortunately, this is difficult to exploit as the Seahawks
don’t have a reliable tight end. Some combination of Will
Dissly and Jacob Hollister could produce, but your guess is as
good as mine as to which one.
PHI FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.25
PHI FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.26
PHI FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.21
PHI FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.5
Running Game Thoughts: With this game on Monday night, there
won’t be much clarity on the Seahawks’ running back
situation by the time this is published. Thursday practice reports
are largely meaningless, so all we have to go on is what’s
been happening. Last week, we saw Carlos Hyde return from injury
and immediately establish himself as the primary back and the
only fantasy relevant back. That will be the case for as long
as Chris Carson remains out. Carson has seemingly been a week
away from three weeks now. If Carson plays, he will get his job
back because Pete Carroll loves him. If not, Hyde will be a locked
in RB2.
Just 12% of the receiving yards allowed by the Eagles have gone
to running backs, so temper expectations for passing game work
for Hyde. Nevertheless, Hyde is averaging 16 touches in his two
starts. You can rely on that volume. The biggest question will
be what to do if Carson is listed as questionable on Saturday.
If you don’t have a backup ready to go on Monday night,
I would err on the side of caution and sit Carson, unless, of
course, the guy you are playing in his stead is a complete dart
throw. It’s a case-by-case decision.
Passing
Game Thoughts: It’s tough to find a starting point
when it comes to Carson Wentz. There’s the fact that he’s
been a bottom five starting quarterback this season (excluding
injury replacements). There’s the fact that he actually
hasn’t been terrible in fantasy because of volume. Then
there’s the fact that this matchup against the Seahawks
isn’t as favorable as it would’ve been a month ago.
The Seahawks have gotten healthier on defense and somewhat contained
Kyler Murray last week (as much as anyone can). Russell Wilson
should make Wentz have to throw so I’d be surprised if he
wasn’t fantasy viable, despite likely playing awful, turning
it over multiple times, and ultimately losing the game.
The Seahawks allow 13.2 more fantasy points per game to wide
receivers than the second worst team against receivers. If there
were ever a week for a Jalen Reagor breakout, it’s now.
Travis Fulgham is still leading the Eagles in snaps, but he’s
caught just one ball for eight yards over each of his last two
games. A floor like that makes him hard to trust, especially with
Zach Ertz potentially returning this week. Ertz sure looked washed
when we last saw him, but the fact remains that he commands targets.
I don’t think his return will put too much of a dent in
Dallas Goedert’s upside, though. Goedert may not play 100%
of the snaps like he did last week. The Seahawks only allow 9.9
fantasy points per game to tight ends, but that’s mostly
due to their inability to stop wide receivers. Goedert is like
the Eagles’ de facto WR1. Alshon Jeffery played just 7%
of the snaps last week.
SEA FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.2
SEA FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.9
SEA FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.1
SEA FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.29
Running Game Thoughts: Miles Sanders and Boston Scott formed
a perfect 60-40 split last week, but Sanders touched the ball
19 times compared to Scott’s eight. It’s very clear
this is Sanders’ backfield. The only problem with Sanders
since his return from injury has been the lack of touchdowns.
Those will come, perhaps this week against a Seahawks team that
has allowed 15 rushing touchdowns this season. Sanders’
volume makes him a locked in RB1. As for Scott, you can do worse
as a desperation flex play because you know he will touch the
ball 6-8 times, but he’s not a recommended start.
Passing
Game Thoughts: New England entered last Sunday on a modest
two-game winning streak that had propelled them back into playoff
contention. Deshaun Watson was having none of it. He connected
on 28 of 37 passes for 344 yards and two TDs in a 27-20 win over
the Patriots. Minus David Johnson (concussion), who was placed
on IR, Watson also doubled as the team's best ball carrier, running
six times for 36 yards and a score. Given how impotent the Lions
looked against first-time NFL starter P.J. Walker last Sunday,
Watson checks in as a high-end QB1 for Turkey Day.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Coming into play this past Sunday, Carolina
had lost five straight games and had allowed 79 points in their
last two. They then proceeded to shut out Matthew Stafford (178
yards, 0 TDs, 0 INTs) and the Lions; marking the first time Detroit
has been held off the scoreboard since 2009 in a game that was
started by... wait for it... Daunte Culpepper! Yes, the Lions
played without Kenny Golladay (hip) and Danny Amendola (hip),
but there's no excuse for posting zero points against a defense
that would never be mentioned among the NFL's elite.
Passing
Game Thoughts: In what has become somewhat of a Thanksgiving
classic, the Football Team once again travels to Jerry World for
a nationally televised showdown against the Cowboys. These games
typically come with high stakes and this season is no different
as the winner of this game will take sole possession of first
place in the worst division in NFL history.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Andy Dalton’s return was a welcome
sight for anyone that subjects themselves to watching the Cowboys
play football in 2020. It was evident the coaching staff spent
the additional time provided by the bye week to open up the offense.
Dalton only threw for 203 yards, but he looked as good as he has
all season and was able to find CeeDee Lamb, Ezekiel Elliott,
and Dalton Schultz for touchdowns. That’s the good news.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Derek Carr and the Raiders head to the
Mercedes Benz Stadium to take on Matt Ryan and the Atlanta Falcons.
The much-maligned Carr is in the midst of one of his best seasons
as a professional. He is on pace to throw for 30 passing touchdowns
and a career-best four interceptions while completing nearly 70%
of his passes.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Matt Ryan currently ranks as the No.15
quarterback in fantasy points per game, nearly five points per
game less than his best season as a pro in 2018. Despite boasting
one of the best receiving corps in the league and a pass-happy
offensive coordinator, Ryan has failed to throw a touchdown in
four games this season. 
Passing
Game Thoughts: Perhaps my favorite player to watch play
this year has been Justin Herbert. From a fantasy perspective,
Herbert has been a poor man’s Kyler Murray this season and
I mean that in the most positive way possible. Herbert has finished
outside of the QB1 range just once all season and has scored at
least 21.5 fantasy points in every game except Week 3. The overwhelming
favorite for offensive rookie of the year is matchup proof.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Josh Allen is either a top six QB1 or
a middling QB2 – nothing in between. After a four game stretch
as the latter, Allen’s two starts before the bye produced
overall QB2 and QB4 finishes. The Chargers allow just 228 passing
yards per game, but that’s largely been buoyed by a recent
run of bad opposing quarterbacks. Allen is an every week starter.
Passing
Game Thoughts: While it's easy to scoff at the Giants'
3-7 record, they're just a couple of plays from riding a five-game
winning streak. Not much has changed for Daniel Jones during that
five-game run, though, as he's averaging 202 yards passing and
1.2 TDs per game. Those clearly aren't QB1 (or maybe even QB2)
numbers, but the second-year pro has stepped it up as a runner,
topping 60 yards on the ground in three of those five games and
averaging 50-plus for that stretch. That generates QB2 appeal.
5Passing
Game Thoughts: What had been a season of encouraging
development for the Bengals came to a halt last Sunday when Joe
Burrow (knee) suffered a season-ending knee injury and was replaced
by Ryan Finley. Cincy will bypass Finley for Brandon Allen in
Week 12, though, and go with the former sixth-round pick. Allen
has logged three starts in his career, all coming last season
with Denver where he went 1-2 and averaged 172 yards, 1 TD and
0.67 INTs per game.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Fresh off an overtime victory on the road
against the Ravens, the Titans head north to take on Philip Rivers
and the Colts at Lucas Oil Stadium. 
Passing
Game Thoughts: Philip Rivers and the Colts came back
from a 14-point deficit to hang on and beat Aaron Rodgers and
the Packers last week. Rivers threw for 288 yards and three scores,
including a long pass and run score for rookie wide receiver Michael
Pittman Jr. who continues to have the look of a late-season rookie
breakout candidate.
Passing
Game Thoughts: After three straight games of terrible
fall weather and windy conditions in Cleveland, Baker Mayfield
and the Browns passing offense head on the road to take on the
Jacksonville Jaguars in what projects to be perfect football weather,
with a high of 74 and light winds.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Head Coach Doug Marrone has named Mike
Glennon the starter this week against the Browns. Rookie Jake
Luton has just two passing touchdowns in three games started this
season and has not topped 170 passing yards since Week 9 against
the Texans. His lack of passing touchdowns has greatly limited
the value of passing weapons like D.J. Chark, who has not caught
a touchdown since Week 9. Glennon is a career 60% passer with
just seven total passing touchdowns in his last 171 pass attempts
- not exactly someone you want to start on your fantasy roster.
Passing
Game Thoughts: With Teddy Bridgewater (knee) unable to
go last Sunday, the team turned to XFL import P.J. Walker, who
passed for 258 yards, a touchdown and two interceptions (both
of which occurred in the end zone) in a win over Detroit. It appears
the week off will do the trick in getting Bridgewater back on
the field as he's expected to make the start against his original
team this Sunday. That should serve as a little added motivation
for the veteran to bring his "A" game in Week 12.
Passing
Game Thoughts: After throwing a grand total of 34 passes
in his first two games after the bye, Kirk Cousins' usage has
increased markedly over the past two weeks with a combined 66
attempts. He played one of his better games of the year last Sunday
when he completed 22 of 30 passes for 314 yards, 3 TDs and no
turnovers. Down three in the final minutes with a chance to tie,
however, Cousins couldn't get a first down and Minnesota fell
to Dallas, 31-28, in a game that all but extinguished their playoff
hopes.
Passing
Game Thoughts: 2019’s rookie of the year is now
right up there with Patrick Mahomes for MVP. Kyler Murray has
been, by far, the best fantasy quarterback. He has yet to finish
lower than overall QB10 and has seven top five finishes. 23.1
fantasy points is his floor. For Murray, the fact that the Patriots
feature multiple shut down corners does not matter. For DeAndre
Hopkins, it might. Murray is going to get his numbers, but it’s
possible this is more of a Christian Kirk/Larry Fitzgerald game
with Bill Belichick committed to erasing Hopkins.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Cam Newton just can’t seem to get
it done both on the ground and through the air anymore. It’s
either one or the other. Last week, he threw for 365 yards, but
only rushed three times for six yards. Newton’s rushing
numbers have been way down since early in the season. The Cardinals
allow just 3.0 rushing fantasy points per game to quarterbacks.
Those numbers are often skewed based on what quarterbacks a team
faced, though. Newton is still a rushing threat and banking on
his passing numbers is a risky proposition.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Brian Flores can spin it any way he wants,
but saying that Ryan Fitzpatrick gave his team the best chance
to win in the fourth quarter last week is a scathing indictment
of Tua Tagovailoa. Tua has now failed to reach 100 passing yards
in two of his four starts and only surpassed 200 yards once. Making
the switch to Tua, but actively hiding him and running as much
as possible seems like a strange decision.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Sam Darnold returned to practice this
week, but it is still looking like Joe Flacco will be under center
for one more week. The Jets are certainly going to try as no one
wants to go winless and they are running out of opportunities.
Unfortunately, there’s not much here for fantasy. Denzel
Mims led the team with eight targets and 71 yards last week. His
usage is encouraging, but the quarterback play is always going
to hold him back. Breshad Perriman is a touchdown hopeful. Jamison
Crowder was once a PPR must start, but after a three target, one
reception game, he can’t be trusted. Chris Herndon caught
a touchdown last week as well. You’re not starting Chris
Herndon. The Dolphins have two shut down corners in Byron Jones
and Xavien Howard. The Jets haven’t scored a point against
this team yet. Just avoid all Jets. 
Passing
Game Thoughts: As has been the case for most of 2020,
nothing came easily for Lamar Jackson in Sunday's loss to the
Titans. His reads looked slow, and his delivery was off target
at times. When the final whistle blew, Jackson had completed 17
of 29 balls for 186 yards, one TD and an INT. He added 51 yards
on 13 rushes, but with each game that goes by it's becoming increasingly
obvious that the 2019 version of Jackson and the Ravens offense
isn't going to make an appearance this season.
Passing
Game Thoughts: While the Steelers' ground game was more
effective than it had been recently, Pittsburgh still threw the
ball 46 times against the Jaguars compared to 27 runs (including
kneel downs). The numbers weren't huge for Ben Roethlisberger,
who threw for 267 yards, two TDs and an interception (his first
since Week 7). During the first meeting with the Ravens, Pittsburgh
ran just 50 plays with the veteran throwing for 182 yards in a
game that was primarily won on defense. The offense is clicking
now, though, and Roethlisberger could still be played as a QB1.
Passing
Game Thoughts: The Taysom Hill/ESPN tight end controversy
has been put to rest, but Hill’s fantasy relevance surged
across other platforms this past week after the 30-year-old made
his first NFL start this past week. Albeit on mostly short passes,
Hill completed 18 of his 23 pass attempts against the Falcons
for 233 yards. He didn’t throw a touchdown, but he also
didn’t throw and interception, which allowed his fantasy
production to shine as he ran the ball 10 times for 51 yards and
a touchdown. We all knew that Hill’s primary value would
likely be in his legs, and that he could end up being essentially
the team’s goal line runner while he’s behind center,
so this wasn’t much of a surprise, but it was good to be
validated in our assumptions that he is, indeed, a worthwhile
fantasy asset as long as he’s the primary quarterback for
the Saints. Of course, there remains a concern that he could end
up getting benched mid-game if he’s struggling, particularly
if the Saints fall behind on the scoreboard, given that Jameis
Winston is waiting on the sidelines with a clipboard in hand,
but the reward might just be worth the risk regarding this mobile
QB.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Drew Lock’s struggles continued
in Week 11 against the Dolphins as the second-year QB completed
just 18 passes and failed to throw a touchdown pass. He also threw
an interception, bringing his streak to six straight games with
at least one pick, and a total of 11 interceptions over that span.
The volume in Denver just is not high enough to make up for Lock’s
turnover problems so he shouldn’t be looked at as anything
more than a low-end QB2 this week against a Saints pass defense
that has only allowed one passing touchdown against them in their
past three games.
Passing
Game Thoughts: The 49ers hope that a bye week has their
team recharged and repaired heading into their pivotal Week 12
matchup with the division-leading Rams. While San Francisco is
not technically out of playoff contention, things are looking
worse by the week in what could be a lost season as they sit at
the bottom of one of the league’s best divisions. If they
want a shot at the playoffs, this is essentially a must-win game
for San Francisco and we have to assume that they will be very
prepared for this week’s contest.
Passing
Game Thoughts: It’s hard to get too excited about
Jared Goff as he just lacks the upside to be a consistent QB1
given his lack of mobility, but there are still times - like in
Week 11’s game against the Buccaneers - when the Rams let
him throw the ball 50 times and he produces a 350-yard, multi-touchdown
game. In Week 12 he’ll face a 49ers defense that he threw
for a season low of just 198 yards against back in Week 6 and
that came in a loss so it wasn’t game script-related. The
49ers have only been middle-of-the-pack against opposing quarterbacks
as a whole this season, but they’ve actually held most opposing
QBs in check. Only three quarterbacks - Aaron Rodgers, Russell
Wilson and Ryan Fitzpatrick - have thrown for more than two touchdowns
against this defense and only Goff himself threw for two scores
against the 49ers in that mediocre Week 6 performance. Other than
that, the 49ers have kept most quarterbacks they’ve faced
in check, at least through the air.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Another week of football goes by and another
300-yard, three-touchdown performance for Patrick Mahomes and
the potent Kansas City Chiefs passing game. With 3035 passing
yards, 27 touchdowns, and just two interceptions, Mahomes is atop
a short list of MVP candidates and continues to be a fantasy stud.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Tom Brady looked very much like a 43-year
old man against the Rams on Monday Night Football. He made terrible
throws, including two-head scratching interceptions, and he cannot
throw the ball downfield with power or accuracy. 
Passing
Game Thoughts: When we last saw the Bears, Nick Foles
(hip) was being carted off the field at the end of a Week 10 loss
to Minnesota. While the injury turned out to not be as severe
as initially feared, it's unclear who will be under center when
Chicago visits Lambeau Field on Sunday night. Foles has yet to
practice, while Mitchell Trubisky (shoulder), who has been dealing
with an injury of his own, looks to be further along in his recovery.
At this point it could either of them, or even Tyler Bray, in
Week 12, though none of them would be worth starting.
Passing
Game Thoughts: It was a weird game for Aaron Rodgers,
as the Packers took it to the Colts' top-tier defense in the first
half, racking up 28 points, only to struggle with just three points
after halftime. Turnovers were a big issue, including two from
the always careful Rodgers, who was intercepted and fumbled a
center exchange. He still ended the day with 311 yards passing
and three TDs, but there was more to be had. The Bears are a familiar
foil for No. 12, who passed for exactly 203 yards, 1 TD and 0
INTs in each of his 2019 matchups with Chicago.
Passing
Game Thoughts: After one game without a touchdown two
weeks ago, Russell Wilson was back to his multi-touchdown ways
against the Cardinals. That’s the good news. The bad news
is he attempted a season low 28 passes and threw for a season
low 197 yards. Although the Eagles are a bad football team, look
for Wilson to get back on track this week.
Passing
Game Thoughts: It’s tough to find a starting point
when it comes to Carson Wentz. There’s the fact that he’s
been a bottom five starting quarterback this season (excluding
injury replacements). There’s the fact that he actually
hasn’t been terrible in fantasy because of volume. Then
there’s the fact that this matchup against the Seahawks
isn’t as favorable as it would’ve been a month ago.
The Seahawks have gotten healthier on defense and somewhat contained
Kyler Murray last week (as much as anyone can). Russell Wilson
should make Wentz have to throw so I’d be surprised if he
wasn’t fantasy viable, despite likely playing awful, turning
it over multiple times, and ultimately losing the game.
