Despite recent improvement, the Lions still rank last in the
NFL in points allowed and 28th in pass defense (262.2 yards per
game). That’s not the area you want to be weak when facing
Allen and company. The Bills surprisingly leaned into their running
game last Sunday, with Allen attempting just 27 passes in a 31-23
win over Cleveland, and it’s certainly an option Thanksgiving
Day as well. That’s not the way Buffalo wants to attack,
however. They’re a passing team, and it would serve them
well to get Allen rolling again as the MVP candidate has had some
struggles in four games since the bye. While Diggs is a must-start
each week, this feels like a good day to deploy Davis (5-68-0
in Week 11) and Knox (7-70-0) as a low-end WR2 and solid TE1,
respectively.
Singletary ran for a season-high 86 yards and a touchdown against
the Browns this past weekend, and four days later he draws the
league’s 31st-ranked run defense -- the Lions have allowed 153.7
yards per game and 5.2 yards per carry. Everything so far is pointing
toward another big game for Singletary. Color me unconvinced.
As noted above, Buffalo wants to air it out, and it always feels
like there’s a tendency to drift back toward that focus regardless
of matchup, which is similar to what we’ve seen from the likes
of Green Bay and Tampa Bay. James Cook also ran very effectively
in Week 11, and on a short week they may look to lighten Singletary’s
load after he played 31 more snaps than Cook against the Browns.
Add it all up, and Singletary feels like a low-end RB2.
Fade: N/A
BUF FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.23
BUF FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.23
BUF FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.11
BUF FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.23
Early in the season, Swift was the no-brainer with Williams the
weekly matchup play. Not anymore. Swift has played more snaps
than Williams just once since Week 2, and he played fewer than
Justin Jackson last week. The team is smartly limiting his usage
to maximize his effectiveness, but for fantasy owners that means
hoping for positive results on limited chances. He gained just
32 yards on eight touches in Week 11, but he did score a touchdown
for a second consecutive week. The Lions are going to need some
big plays to keep pace with Buffalo, and Swift remains perhaps
their most dangerous weapon. As an RB3 or flex he could do some
damage.
Remember Goff’s hot start? Yeah, me neither. Over his past six
games, the former No. 1 overall pick has averaged 219 yards per
game via the air with a combined four TDs and four INTs. Things
might improve when Josh Reynolds (back) or D.J. Chark (ankle)
return, or Jameson Williams (knee) debuts, but none of them played
in Week 11, making it suspect that any of them would return this
Thursday. Even if one of them did, it’s not enough to advocate
for Goff to be anywhere but your bench against one of just two
NFL teams with more INTs than TDs allowed for the season.
It might not always be pretty, but after a near-25-point performance
in Week 11, Daniel Jones is now approaching QB1 territory on the
season and he’ll likely get there once a few others ahead
of him have their bye weeks. Jones’ nine touchdown passes
on the year are fewer than every other top-20 quarterback, but
he’s putting up borderline elite numbers as a runner. At
44 yards on the ground per game, Jones is currently on pace for
nearly 750 rushing yards this season. He’s already scored
four times as a runner, as well. He played against this Cowboys
defense back in Week 3 and was held in check through the air,
but he was able to salvage a usable fantasy day by running for
79 yards on the ground. It’s tough to truly trust anyone
playing against this staunch Dallas defense, but Jones is becoming
a borderline must-start for fantasy purposes.
The Giants were dealt a difficult blow earlier this week when
it was learned that rookie wide receiver Wan’Dale Robinson suffered
a torn ACL in this past weekend’s contest. Robinson had enjoyed
a true breakout performance in that game and now the team is without
both him and Sterling Shepard, leaving their pass-catching group
extremely thin. One player who should benefit from the situation,
though, is wide receiver Darius Slayton. Slayton himself has been
stepping up as of late, having quietly reached double-digit fantasy
points in five of his past six contests. On Sunday, though, he
had perhaps his most important performance. While he only caught
five passes for 86 yards, Slayton was targeted 10 times on the
day - his most so far this season. It came on a day when Daniel
Jones threw the ball 44 times, which is by far his most of the
season. Jones’ previous high actually came against Dallas back
in Week 3, so don’t be surprised to see Jones throw the ball much
more often than usual this weekend, and without many other established
pass-catchers on the roster, that should play right into Slayton’s
upside.
Backup running back Matt Breida “stole” Saquon Barkley’s
rushing touchdown in Week 11, but don’t expect that to be
the case going forward. Yes, Barkley is coming off of an ugly
performance against the Lions, but Breida is not suddenly going
to become the Giants’ goal-line back. Even in deep formats,
don’t chase last week’s points. Roster Breida as an
insurance policy for Barkley, sure, but keep him out of your lineup
for now.
NYG FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.25
NYG FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.17
NYG FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.27
NYG FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.16
Fantasy managers rostering Tony Pollard got a chance to see their
running back go absolutely nuclear with Ezekiel Elliott sidelined
in recent weeks, but we breathed a collective sigh of relief this
past week as well. Elliott returned to the lineup, but the Cowboys
ended up giving each player exactly 15 carries in the dominant
win over the Vikings. Not only was Pollard more effective with
his carries, but he also added an impressive six catches for 109
yards and two scores in the passing game. Look, we know that Zeke
is not going anywhere, but it’s at least comforting to know that
the Cowboys coaching staff has recognized that they need to continue
to get Pollard involved. As such, he remains a strong RB2 with
RB1 upside this week against a Giants defense that he already
torched for over 100 yards back in Week 3.
With a sub-3.0 yards per carry average on the ground in his return
this past week, it’s tough to be overly optimistic about
Elliott’s outlook going forward. However, the coaching staff
in Dallas let it be known that they are going to continue to give
him the ball regularly, as he immediately returned to a large
workload in the Cowboys’ win over the Vikings, including
carries that resulted in two short-yardage rushing touchdowns.
Elliott has now scored five times over his past three starts and
he’s clearly the team’s preferred goal-line back.
With the Cowboys offense seemingly hitting its stride, Elliott
has become a very Jamaal Williams-like goal-line stud who gives
fantasy managers a decent floor due to volume and can also provide
big points via touchdowns. With that said, Elliott is still being
limited in practice and he has been objectively worse than teammate
Tony Pollard with his touches, so there’s always a looming
concern that he could become the low-end of the split backfield
at any time.
Cowboys tight end Dalton Schultz has been one of the more disappointing
options at the position this season. Whether it’s been because
of the injuries he’s sustained, the injuries sustained by Dak
Prescott, or just a general lack of connection, this has not been
the breakout season that those who drafted him were hoping for.
With that said, the tight end position has been terrible overall
this season and Schultz does see enough volume in a fairly decent
offense that he probably has to be started most weeks. It’s just
worth noting that the Giants have been excellent against opposing
tight ends this season. Only Mark Andrews has exceeded even 11
fantasy points against the Giants this season, so don’t expect
a difference-making outcome from Schultz on Thanksgiving.
Only the Steelers have allowed more passing yards per game this
year than the Vikings (267.3), and when you’re talking about New
England’s aerial attack you’re really just talking about Meyers.
Despite missing two games, Meyers has more than twice as many
receptions as any other wide receiver or tight end this season.
In fact, Meyers (44) and Stevenson (41) are the only players with
more than 20 catches on the year. Expect Meyers to be Mac Jones’
primary target again this Sunday against a suspect Vikings pass
defense that relies on sacks and takeaways to protect their shaky
secondary. He looks like a low-end WR2 or high-end WR3 here.
While Harris has fallen well behind Stevenson, playing just 15
snaps in Week 11 to the latter’s 49, the Pats surely saw
the Cowboys deploy the tandem of Tony Pollard and Ezekiel Elliott
to good success in Dallas’ 40-3 dismantling of Minnesota
on Sunday. Harris made the most of his limited touches against
the Jets, turning eight runs and a pair of receptions into 93
yards (9.3 yards per touch). You’d be threading the needle
a bit by relying on Harris as more than a flex, but he does offer
some upside.
Fade: N/A
NE FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.19
NE FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.32
NE FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.29
NE FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.10
For the season, the Pats sit fourth in pass yardage allowed (188.3
per game), second in sacks (36), and first in opponent completion
percentage (55.7). That’s the last thing in the world Cousins
wants to see after absorbing seven sacks this past Sunday and
11 over his last two games. Christian Darrisaw (concussion) has
already been ruled out for the Thanksgiving night clash with New
England, meaning Cousins with be without his blindside protector
against a ferocious rush. While that’s not enough to consider
downgrading Jefferson to a spot on your bench, both Cousins and
Thielen, who is averaging a paltry 4 receptions, 45 yards, and
0.17 TDs per game over his last six, are best left in reserve.
It’s hard to really be excited about a quarterback who’s
thrown for 200 yards just three times all year and who just lost
his young pass-catching tight end for the season, but the reality
is that we don’t really like Marcus Mariota for his passing
- we like that he’s running all over the place every week.
He’s averaging nearly 34 rushing yards per game and he’s
also added four scores on the ground, including this past week’s
rushing touchdown against the Bears. The Commanders have given
up rushing touchdowns to opposing quarterbacks in back-to-back
games and they also gave up an 88-yard day on the ground to Justin
Fields, so this is a pretty decent matchup for Mariota.
Washington has been excellent against opposing running backs
this season and they’re coming off of a game in which they completely
locked up Houston’s Dameon Pierce. We know that Cordarrelle Patterson
is an explosive playmaker who’s capable of making big things happen
even with minimal opportunities, but the fact that he’s touched
the ball just 18 times over his past two games has to be a bit
of a concern for fantasy managers. He’s still delivering decent
enough numbers to be useful for fantasy, but he’s hard to trust
that he’s going to do things like score a return touchdown each
week. Patterson is no longer an RB2 and is more of a borderline
Flex play until we see his volume get back up to near where it
was earlier this season when he was producing big numbers.
Rookie wide receiver Drake London scored early in this past week’s
game, but then got completely shut down from that point on. London
has now failed to exceed 40 receiving yards in eight straight
contests. It’s true that he should see at least a bit of a target
share increase now that Kyle Pitts is on IR, but this is still
such a low-volume passing game that even a 30-percent target share
could mean single-digit targets for the rookie if the Falcons
have it their way and can run the ball all day long. We may see
some higher volume games down the stretch as the Falcons play
against some better offenses, but London is a low-upside play
and should be on fantasy benches against teams like Washington.
ATL FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.9
ATL FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.13
ATL FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.2
ATL FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.9
Perhaps analysts were a bit too quick to give up on Antonio Gibson.
The running back has now seen 43 carries over his past three games
and he’s remained an active member of the Washington passing game.
In fact, Gibson has now caught at least three passes in seven
of his past eight contests. He’s still conceding a ton of work
on the ground to Brian Robinson Jr., but Gibson has looked like
the better back in most games, allowing him to be a productive
RB2 for fantasy. He now faces a terrible Atlanta defense that
has given up five 20-point fantasy days to opposing running backs
so far this season. Gibson is a solid RB2 as long as he continues
to see the volume that he’s been getting.
He’s yet to average even 4.0 yards per carry in a game,
but Robinson continues to be a big part of the Commanders’
offensive game plan each week. He’s averaging over 15 carries
per game, allowing him to out-touch Antonio Gibson in multiple
contests. While he hasn’t been extremely efficient with
his touches, it’s hard to deny a player that’s getting
double-digit touches in every game. He’s much more valuable
in non-PPR formats, but the carry volume alone makes Robinson
a viable Flex option even in PPR leagues.
While Terry McLaurin has seen his numbers jump since Taylor Heinicke
took over behind center, one player who’s seen a significant drop-off
in production has been fellow wide receiver Curtis Samuel. Samuel
started the season off red hot and was actually a WR1 early on,
but he’s cooled off significantly and is now coming off of his
first back-to-back sub-10-point games of the season. It hasn’t
just been bad luck, either - Samuel just isn’t getting utilized
like he was early on. He’s been targeted four or fewer times in
four straight games, including this past week’s game when he saw
just two passes come his way against the Texans. Samuel is an
explosive playmaker who can do big things on limited opportunities,
but this is just becoming too low of a volume to be trusted for
fantasy lineups.
Robinson has at least eight targets in two of the last three
games, and with Rashod Bateman out, there’s no deep threat, meaning
opposing defenses are sliding coverage to TE Mark Andrews in the
middle of the field. Robinson has been reliable, and the Jaguars
have been susceptible to the pass at times this season. He’s a
WR2 in a run-first attack.
Once thought to be the WR1 to be in this offense, Duvernay has
just a single target in each of the last two games, hasn’t
surpassed 50 receiving yards in a game since Week 5, and hasn’t
scored since Week 3. But there he was a couple weeks ago, hauling
in three passes on the first drive of the game. I’m leaning
towards keeping him on the bench, but this could be the week he
pops. He could be a sneaky flex.
Drake didn’t get the volume last week (10-46-0, 2-7-0) after
Gus Edwards was a Sunday inactive. This coming off his monster
Week 9 performance against the Saints (24-93-2, 2-16-0). He has
not been efficient, the Jags are tough against the run, and Lamar
Jackson is going to lead the team in rushing every week.
BAL FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.11
BAL FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.24
BAL FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.7
BAL FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.17
Kirk is beginning to separate himself as the clear WR1 in this
offense, and QB Trevor Lawrence is playing well enough for it
to matter from a fantasy perspective. Kirk has at least 75 yards
in three of his last four outings and has posted three scores
in the last two weeks. Against a Ravens defense that has been
susceptible to the pass, he’s a good bet as a low-end WR1.
Lawrence has all the tools and has shown flashes with some big
time throws and some athletic runs. But consistency has been the
issue for him throughout the season, until recently. In the two
games against the Raiders and Chiefs before last week’s
bye, he completed 80% of his passes for nearly 500 yards (7.1
per attempt) and three touchdowns. Rested and presumably healthy
off the bye week, facing a plus matchup against a forgiving Ravens
defense, he could be a good spot start and he might be able to
post low-end QB1 numbers.
Full disclosure, I didn’t like Engram all the way back in his
Giants days, and nothing much has changed since. With Christian
Kirk and Zay Jones both emerging as consistent receiving threats,
and Travis Etienne turning into the all-purpose back we knew he
could be, Engram’s touches will be limited. He has just four catches
for a combined 22 yards over the team’s last two games.
Justin Fields has been one of the best turn-around stories in
fantasy football so far this season and under normal circumstances,
he’d be an easy “no-brainer,” but unfortunately
these are not normal circumstances. Fields suffered an injury
to his non-throwing shoulder and his status for this week’s
contest is now up in question. In fact, there are rumors that,
given Chicago’s 3-8 record with little playoff chances,
the team may opt to shut him down for the year. It’s true
that Fields has been delivering most of his fantasy points with
his legs, but we still need him to at least threaten the defense
with his arm, so this is a bit of a dangerous situation for fantasy
even if he does suit up. Chances are that fantasy managers don’t
have another QB rostered who gives them the ceiling/floor combination
that Fields does, so he’ll probably need to be in most lineups
anyway, but he’s certainly not a must-start until we see
what his passing looks like following this injury.
The Jets have allowed just one 100-yard rusher this season and
only Nick Chubb, back in Week 2, scored more than one touchdown
against this defense. They shut down Joe Mixon, Najee Harris,
Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon, Devin Singletary, and they just held
Rhamondre Stevenson to 15 carries for 26 yards. Where they have
been exploitable is through the air. Unfortunately, David Montgomery
is still a relatively low-volume pass catcher. He’s caught more
than three passes just once this season and he’s been held to
one or zero receptions in half of his games. He’s probably going
to see an elevated touch share to begin with given the injury
to Justin Fields’ shoulder, but he may need a lot of opportunities
to truly deliver for fantasy this week.
The Bears haven’t thrown the ball 30 times in any game
this season and that was prior to Justin Fields’ shoulder
injury. There’s a chance that Fields might not even play
this week and even if he does, there’s a strong possibility
that it won’t be at full capacity, at least from a throwing
mechanics standpoint. That will only further incentivize the Bears
to run a very slow-paced offense that doesn’t throw the
ball down the field much, so don’t expect any of these Chicago
pass catchers to get enough volume to make them strong plays here
in Week 12.
CHI FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.17
CHI FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.5
CHI FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.25
CHI FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.30
It seems crazy that many of us were excited for Joe Flacco to
get another opportunity to run an NFL offense here in 2022, but
that’s how bad things have gotten in New York with Zach Wilson.
The young QB has been terrible and seems to be losing the locker
room, which many assumed would mean a move back to veteran Joe
Flacco, but instead the team announced on Wednesday that they’d
be going with journeyman Mike White. White has not been great
in the minimal starting opportunities he had in 2021, but he did
have a 400-yard, three touchdown game against the Bengals in one
of his three starts.
This change should be viewed as a positive for rookie wide receiver
Garrett Wilson who seemed to be creating a connection with Flacco
early in the year, prior to the QB change. Wilson had his most
productive game back in Week 2 when he caught eight passes for
102 yards and a touchdown. Perhaps even more interestingly, though,
is that Wilson was targeted a whopping 33 times in his first three
NFL games - all of which were quarterbacked by Flacco. He had
a down week against the Patriots, as did everyone in the offense,
but he’s otherwise been very good as of late and should
be looked at as at least a WR3.
The entire Jets offense was horrible in Week 11, so it’s
difficult to judge Carter too harshly, but eight carries for 19
yards and negative yards in the passing game are pretty tough
to overlook. Still, we had seen some decent production from Carter
prior to the Week 11 disaster and there’s plenty of reason
to be hopeful about a bounce-back game against the Bears here
in Week 12. The Bears have given up the fifth-most fantasy points
per game to opposing running backs so far this season and with
their own quarterback dealing with an injury, there’s a
good chance that the game script in this contest ends up being
a good one for Carter.
While Michael Carter has only been so-so as a starter since Breece
Hall went down, the recently-acquired James Robinson hasn’t
done anything to steal the job away. Robinson has averaged fewer
than four yards per carry in all three of his appearances with
the Jets and he’s caught just two passes. There’s
always the possibility that the Jets decide to completely change
things up and give Robinson more opportunities, but for now, he’s
more of a wait-and-see type of player.
Hurst had a down day in Week 11 with two catches for 28 yards.
But in the three contests before that he had 15 catches on 7 targets,
among the most by TE’s across the league. Tennessee has taken
its’ lumps against the pass this season, so even with the potential
return of Ja’Marr Chase, he should still be in line for TE1 work.
Update: Joe
Mixon is Out. Samaje Perine will get the start.
Mixon is a question mark for this week as he tries to work through
concussion protocol, and even if he is cleared, Tennessee is allowing
just 3.9 yards per rush, good for third in the NFL. Still, Mixon
should be played if he’s healthy, but he’ll have to make hay as
a receiver to boost his numbers.
Though he saw an increased role in recent weeks while Ja’Marr
Chase was injured that still left hm as the No.3 target behind
Tee Higgins and TE Hayden Hurst. He had just two catches for 28
yards last week. With Chase potentially back in the fold, Boyd
could fall into irrelevancy.
CIN FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.29
CIN FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.22
CIN FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.26
CIN FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.12
Henry remains the only sure thing in this offense. Obviously,
a dominant runner and a goal line beast, he’s improved as
a receiver and now they even have him throwing touchdown passes
as part of the game plan. As the Titans continue to piece together
wins, it sems their first order of business is to figure out how
Henry can be involved.
My guess is a lot of owners will be excited about Treylon Burks
after last week’s 100-yard effort against the Packers. But he
will have the full attention of Cincinnati’s very capable secondary.
Woods is supposed to be, has to be, the security blanket that
QB Ryan Tannehill needs, and with coverage potentially rolling
to the bigger, more explosive Burks, Woods should have favorable
matchups as the short to intermediate possession receiver in this
system. He has 14 targets over the last two weeks. Hopefully that’s
the start of a trend.
Tannehill is coming off his best game of the season against a
struggling Packers defense. This week, he faces one of the better
secondaries in the NFL in the Bengals. The way to attack these
Bengals is on the ground. Tannehill may get some opportunities
to create in the play action game, but this will be the Derrick
Henry show unless the Titans are forced to play catchup, but I
don’t see that happening.
Murray is the last man standing in Denver’s backfield. Javonte
Williams is done for the year, Chase Edmonds is on IR, and Melvin
Gordon has been cut. Murray has had at least 14 carries in three
of the last five games with Edmonds and Gordon in the mix, so
his carries should increase, as well as his goal line carries,
even though they are few and far between for this offense. Carolina
is giving up the fifth-most fantasy points per game to RB’s this
season, so Murray could get a nice pop in production this week.
With Jerry Jeudy and KJ Hamler both out of the lineup, QB Russell
Wilson has had n choice but to force the ball to Sutton, who has
11 catches on 18 targets over the last two games. He has responded
with some respectable yardage numbers, but the Broncos don’t score
a whole lot of touchdowns, or even get in position to do so very
often, so Sutton’s ceiling is limited. He’s a low-end WR2 just
based on the fact that Wilson has to target someone.
You don’t need me to tell you this isn’t your Seattle
Seahawks Russell Wilson. He hasn’t surpassed 300 passing
yards in a game since Week 1 and hasn’t thrown multiple
TDs in a game since Week 4. He’s completing just 59% of
his passes with just 7 TDs on the season.
DEN FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.32
DEN FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.20
DEN FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.31
DEN FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.18
Moore has been invisible with Baker Mayfield under center. But
now that Sam Darnold has gotten the nod at QB this week, it could
mean good things for Moore. The two connected 93 times last season
with Darnold as the starter, a career high for Moore, as was his
4 TDs and three 100-yard games. Denver’s no easy layup when it
comes to their defense, but Moore has some sneaky value as a WR2
this week.
Twenty-three of Marshall’s 31 targets have come in the last
four games. That could be a function of Baker Mayfield at QB,
or it could be that people in Carolina are finally realizing that
this kid can catch the ball, and he can do it from anywhere on
the field. It’s not like the Panthers have a whole bunch
of options in the pass game, so I’d expect him to put up
flex-worthy numbers.
Darnold is the starter for Week 12, and P.J. Walker is on deck
if things go sideways. It looks like Mayfield got another swing
at the job and whiffed. He’s a fantasy non-factor.
Fantasy managers were frustrated this past week when Pierce was
completely shut down by the Commanders, as he rushed for just
eight yards on 10 carries, adding just two receptions for nine
yards in the passing game. It was by far his worst performance
as a starter since his Week 1 NFL debut when he played behind
Rex Burkhead. It’s easy to lose faith in a young player like this
when he has a bad game, but the Commanders have been an elite
defense against opposing running backs all year long, so don’t
let it cloud your judgment too much - this is still a player who’s
seeing almost all of the touches out of his backfield. In fact,
the only real concern for those rostering Pierce should be that
this game against the Dolphins could end up getting out of striking
distance for the Texans early, if Miami ends up putting points
on the board as they have in many games. Even still, the Texans
have shown a willingness to continue to feed Pierce the ball even
in games where they fall behind, sometimes even through the air
which we love to see for fantasy purposes. Pierce isn’t an RB1
this week, but he’s a strong RB2.
The Texans are 12.5-point underdogs heading into this game, which
should go to tell you that there’s a pretty strong likelihood
that they’re going to be playing from behind yet again.
That has worked out recently for wide receiver Nico Collins, who
has now been targeted 17 times over his past two contests. While
he hasn’t really turned those opportunities into huge fantasy
production, he has been the team’s most effective pass catcher
and it’s looking increasingly likely that he’s going
to be the Texans’ WR1 going forward. He’s not a no-risk
option by any means, but you could do worse than a player like
Collins as your WR3/Flex this week.
Cooks has long been considered a boring, but productive option
for fantasy football. Unfortunately, he’s now become boring
and unproductive as he continues to slide into fantasy obscurity.
Cooks hasn’t reached even seven targets in a game since
Week 4 and while he hasn’t fallen below five targets in
any game, he also isn’t doing much with the opportunities
he has. Cooks has been held to under 12 fantasy points in seven
of his past eight contests and he’s now falling behind Nico
Collins on the target totem pole. This is not the time to go back
to Cooks.
HOU FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.30
HOU FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.1
HOU FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.30
HOU FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.13
After splitting snaps and touches roughly equally with Raheem
Mostert in his Dolphins debut back in Week 9, Jeff Wilson really
took over the backfield the last time we saw Miami on the field
in Week 10. Wilson played over twice as many snaps as Mostert
and ended up getting 19 touches in the Dolphins’ blowout
win over the Browns. Most importantly, Wilson was hugely productive
with his touches, as he produced 143 total yards to go along with
a touchdown. Now he faces a Houston defense that is the league’s
worst in fantasy points given up to opposing running backs, in
a game in which the Dolphins are huge home favorites. The matchups
don’t get much more appealing than this for a player like
Wilson, so get him in your lineup.
The emergence of Jeff Wilson has been a kick to the gut for fantasy
managers rostering Raheem Mostert, as their back was doing fairly
well prior to the move and now he’s seemingly fallen down
to being the clear backup. Thankfully, Mostert did still deliver
against the Browns in his most recent game, as he rushed for 65
yards and a touchdown on eight carries, but the obvious concern
is that he could continue to lose touches to Wilson as the season
goes on. Mostert would probably be a “fade” right
now against most defenses, but he’s facing a Texans defense
that is horrible enough against the running back position that
most managers can probably still justify fitting him into their
lineups at least for this one week.
With just five total targets over his past two games, Dolphins
tight end Mike Gesicki is back on the “fade” list
here in Week 13. He scored back in Week 8 against Detroit, but
it was on only four targets and Gesicki has now been held to fewer
than five targets in all but two games this season. Yes, he’s
in a highly efficient offense in which he gets a high percentage
of his targets in the red zone, but this lack of usage just is
not conducive to large fantasy point performances and it often
leads to complete duds. The Dolphins may not end up needing to
pass the ball much in this one at all, so don’t bother with
the guy who’s at best a distant third option in the pecking
order.
Cleveland’s run defense has been bad for most of 2022,
ranking 23rd in yards per game (135.1), 30th in rushing TDs allowed
(16), and 28th in yards per carry (4.8). It was such an inviting
matchup that even pass-happy Buffalo chose to run the ball 33
times last Sunday for 171 yards. The Bucs like to throw it, too,
but they showed in Munich that they’re willing to hand it
off, gashing the Seahawks for 161 yards on 44 carries. The question
for Week 12 is how will those carries be distributed? Fournette
(hip) posted a 14-57-1 line before departing with a hip pointer.
Following the bye, however, he looks like he should play. In his
absence, White carried the ball 22 times for 105 yards, and the
rookie had already been playing more in recent weeks -- he logged
76 snaps in three previous games to Fournette’s 141. For
this Sunday, both Fournette and White are playable as RB3/flex
with some risk/reward attached.
As noted above, Brady likes to throw, attempting 40 or more passes
in seven straight games before the win over Seattle where he threw
just 29 (his lowest since Week 1). Given Cleveland’s deficiency
against the run, it would make sense to continue leaning on the
ground game. Then again, only four teams have allowed a higher
passer rating this season than the Browns, so it’s not as
though they’re a lockdown pass defense. Expect Brady to
at least take some shots and pencil him in as a low-end QB1 that
could outperform that designation.
Fade: N/A
TB FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.21
TB FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.30
TB FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.18
TB FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.7
Njoku returned last Sunday after a two-game absence with an ankle
injury. He had just two receptions for 17 yards, but bear in mind
that he was on a “pitch count,” playing 28 snaps compared to 55
for Harrison Bryant. Expect those restrictions to be loosened
significantly in Week 12, especially after Bryant had a critical
drop in the end zone in Cleveland’s loss to Buffalo. With the
tight end position thinned considerably in recent weeks by injuries
(Waller, Pitts, Goedert, Ertz), Njoku is someone that can be plugged
into your starting lineup this week and, barring injury, each
week moving forward.
Through his first nine starts, Brissett never threw for more than
278 yards in a game and had more than one TD pass in an outing
just once (two in Week 3). Last Sunday, he passed for 324 yards
and 3 touchdowns in an eight-point loss to the Bills. While much
of that came in garbage time, we’re entering YOLO country for
Brissett, who almost certainly is making his last start of the
year with Deshaun Watson set to return from his 12-game suspension
next Sunday. The journeyman remains safely nestled in the QB2
zone, but he has some upside if the Bucs can stymy Cleveland’s
running attack.
Over his last five games, Hunt has reached the 10-touch plateau
just once, and that was during the team’s Monday night blowout
over Cincinnati where he turned 15 touches into 72 yards. His
role has largely evaporated, and the Buccaneers just showed over
in Germany they could shut down a potent back in Seattle’s Kenneth
Walker, who had 17 yards on 10 carries -- one week after rushing
for 109 yards and 2 TDs. The one glimmer of hope from that game
is Walker’s six catches for 55 yards, which plays much more to
Hunt’s strengths than Chubb’s. Still, at best you’d consider Hunt
a middling flex.
Jacobs galloped to his fourth 100-yard rushing game last week
against the Broncos and the Raiders RB now sits 4th in PPR points
per game. Not bad for the pre-season RB21 in average draft position.
No other running back got a carry for the Raiders against Denver
and the workhorse role should continue against a Seahawks defense
giving up the 7th most fantasy points to the position. Seattle
has given up 100-yard rushing games to Cordarrelle Patterson,
Jamaal Williams, Alvin Kamara and Rachaad White.
Derek Carr has thrown 2 touchdowns in each of the last three
games resulting in QB12, QB16 and QB12 finishes. He offers nothing
on the ground which limits his fantasy ceiling and seems to only
have eyes for Davante Adams in the passing game making his secondary
options like Moreau and WR Mack Hollins shaky options on a weekly
basis. Seattle has been tough on wide receivers this year but
more forgiving against tight ends, allowing the second-most receiving
yards to the position giving Moreau a decent chance at low-end
TE1 value this week.
Fade: N/A
LV FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.4
LV FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.4
LV FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.15
LV FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.5
Metcalf and Lockett have accounted for 81% of the team’s receiving
yards at the wide receiver position as the team has rotated Marquise
Goodwin and Dee Eskridge at the third wide receiver position.
Lockett has scored in three straight games and Metcalf leads the
team in targets (77). The Raiders have yet to give up a 100-yard
receiving game but they’re ranked in the middle of the pack (15th)
in fantasy points allowed and there’s nothing special about their
secondary or scheme that should concern fantasy owners.
This is a good matchup on paper for the Seattle tight ends but
keep in mind the Raiders gave up 4 TDs to Travis Kelce (Wk5) which
skews their fantasy points allowed stats. Also completing matters
is trying to decipher which tight end to play. Fant leads the
duo in targets (38) but Dissly has a couple more TDs which is
why you will find them closely ranked in just about any scoring
system. I’ll typically lean towards volume in these scenarios
making Fant the preferred option if you’re searching for a tight
end in Week 11.
Herbert got his two lead receivers back last week and although
Mike Williams (ankle) didn’t last very long having them back made
a huge difference for the QB and the offense as a whole. Even
if Williams isn’t able to play this week the return of Allen as
Herbert’s security blanket is huge for his fantasy prospects.
Allen (hamstring) played 67% of the snaps last week and we expect
that percentage to increase. He saw 8 targets and even connected
a deep ball. He was full at practice on Wednesday which is a good
sign he came out of the game just fine. The Cardinals have been
a plus matchup for QBs this season and this game has the second-highest
point total of the week.
Gerald Everett gets the best matchup for tight ends this week
as nobody gives up more points to the position than Arizona. Problem
is, Everett has been battling a groin injury and was downgraded
to Out late last week. He was limited in practice this week but
if he seems to back to full healthy by Sunday, then it’s
a great spot for the Chargers tight end.
Palmer has been a viable fill-in this season while Keenan Allen
and Mike Williams have been on the shelf with injury. He’s had
double-digit targets in three out his last four games and is coming
off his best fantasy game of the season (8-106-2) which was aided
by Williams aggravating his ankle injury and leaving early in
the first quarter. If Big-Mike sits this week, Palmer is worthy
of Flex consideration as he’ll vault back into a starting role
opposite Keenan Allen.
We had some conflicting reports on Williams’ practice status
this week as he was originally scheduled to be limited on Wednesday
but ended up sitting and also missed practice on Thursday. Even
if he does play this week, he’ll be very difficult for fantasy
owners to trust given his early departure in Week 11.
LAC FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.15
LAC FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.3
LAC FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.21
LAC FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.6
The Cardinals have gone all-in on Conner after releasing Eno
Benjamin a couple weeks ago. He got 24 touches in Week 10 then
16 touches last week while playing 78% of the snaps in a game
where the offense sputtered. The Chargers don’t put up much resistance
on defense and represent a plus matchup for fantasy running backs
having allowed five 100-yard rushing games already this season
– the latest to Isiah Pacheco of the Chiefs. Given the matchup
and goaline usage, Conner is an easy RB2 in Week 12.
Murray has missed the last two games with a hamstring injury but
is expected to return in Week 12 after full practices all week.
Unfortunately, a good portion of his receiving crew is banged
up. Rondale Moore missed practice Thursday with a groin injury
and his replacement in the slot, Greg Dortch has also missed practice
time this week with a thumb issue. Marquise Brown (foot) is expected
to be on the field but will likely be limited. That leaves DeAndre
Hopkins and 33-year-old A.J. Green as Murray’s top weapons. We
might see rookie TE Trey McBride gets some extra opportunities
if both slot receivers are out. He makes for a sneaky TE2 play.
The Rams offense is broken. The loss of Cooper Kupp was tough,
but now Matthew Stafford is on the shelf with yet another concussion.
To make matters worse, the line has trouble pass-protecting and
can’t consistently open holes in the running game. This doesn’t
leave a lot for fantasy owners to chew on. Both Robinson (ankle)
and Higbee (knee) have been limited in practice this week due
to injury but are likely to play. There could be some garbage
time value here given the state of this offense and team, you
should temper your expectations.
As of Thursday night, the Rams have yet to name a starting QB.
We know it won’t be Matthew Stafford who is out with a concussion.
Perkins offers some rushing ability and the matchup is decent
against a Chiefs defense that is forgiving to passers and runners.
However, given the offensive line woes for the Rams, it wouldn’t
be a surprise to see the Chiefs-D dominate the backup QB and force
the Rams into multiple turnovers and bad field position most of
the night. Look elsewhere for your sneaky QB2 value.
LAR FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.24
LAR FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.6
LAR FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.8
LAR FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.26
The Chiefs have found their primary early-down runner and that
is rookie Isiah Pacheco. Clyde Edwards-Helaire is on the IR with
a high ankle sprain and Jerick McKinnon is primarily used as a
change of pace and on third downs. Expect to see Ronald Jones
active in this game, but his involvement shouldn’t cut into the
workload of Pacheco who’s seen 31 carries over the last two weeks.
The expected positive game script and high team total (29.5) is
a good setup for a fantasy running back. Thrown in a Rams defensive
unit that’s given up the sixth-most fantasy points to the position
you can strongly consider Pacheco a RB2 in Week 12.
JuJu missed last week’s game with a concussion but has been practicing
this week and is expected to get cleared in time for this week’s
game against the Rams. Before the injury, he’d been Mahomes’ most
trusted target not name Travis Kelce, leading the KC wide receivers
in targets (64), receptions (46) and yards (615). Kadairus Toney
is expected to miss with a hamstring injury, so expect to see
a lot of JuJu, MVS and Justin Watson with some Skyy Moore sprinkled
in. Yes, JuJu will see some of Jalen Ramsey in this game but as
Doug Orth pointed
out in his most recent article, opponents targeting the Rams
DB over the last three weeks have found success to the tune of
23 receptions, 247 yards and two TDs. The Rams’ secondary hasn’t
been one to shy away from this year and given the high throw rate
of the Chiefs offense, you should feel comfortable keeping JuJu
in your lineup.
Olave notched his third 100-yard receiving game last week and
now leads the Saints wide receiver group in targets (83), receptions
(51) and yards (760). Even with Jarvis Landry returning last week
and playing 56% of the snaps, Olave remains the focal point of
the passing offense. The best way to attack the 49ers is through
the air and specifically through the wide receiver position. Five
receivers have had 100-yard games against this bunch including
Tyler Lockett, Cooper Kupp, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Marquez Valdes-Scantling
and Greg Dortch.
Despite being ranked 8th in fantasy points per game (PPR), it’s
been a rough go for Kamara this season. His numbers are skewed
by a three-touchdown game in Week 8 against the Raiders… his only
touchdowns of the season. He’s had only 29 rush attempts in his
last three games and the 49ers have given up the second-fewest
fantasy points to the position. There’s been chatter around Saints
camp that Taysom Hill is going to be a more permanent fixture
in the offense which can’t be good for Kamara’s ceiling. It’s
doubtful that you have a better option, especially in season-long
leagues, but I’d temper expectations for Kamara in this game and
moving forward.
Dalton spiked last week with a three-touchdown game against the
Rams, finishing as the QB8 on the week but he’s given you more
subpar weeks than playable weeks, ranking 22nd among qualified
QBs in our Consistency
Calculator. The 49ers-D is no joke, ranking first overall
and should be getting help up front with DT Arik Armstead (foot,
ankle) and DE Samson Ebukam expected to return. New Orleans is
1-3 on the road this season and this feels like a multi-INT game
for Dalton.
NO FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.16
NO FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.25
NO FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.14
NO FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.32
Ayiuk has his four-game 80-yard streak snapped last week against
Arizona but made up for it by scoring two touchdowns. His second
two-TD game of the season. He now ranks 15th in fantasy points
per game, ahead of Deebo Samuel (21st), Amon-Ra St. Brown, Tee
Higgins, Mike Evans and DK Metcalf. Sure, the 49ers have a plethora
of weapons but Aiyuk should be able to keep his WR2 status going
for another week against a Saints defense giving up the 9th most
receiving yards to the position.
Deebo’s fantasy output has been mildly disappointing up until
last week when he totaled 94 and a TD against the Cardinals for
his second-best fantasy day of the season. He does lead the 49ers
in targets but is second behind Aiyuk in receptions and yards.
The rushing floor that we feel in love with last season has shrunk
significantly with the arrival of Christian McCaffrey but it did
pay dividends last week with a 3-37-1 line on the ground. The
Saints rank middle of the pack against WRs (14th) and are banged
up in the secondary. CB Marshon Lattimore was limited in practice
on Wednesday and hasn’t played since Week 5.
A three-touchdown game against the Cowboys in Week 10 might’ve
looked like a fluke, but Christian Watson added another two touchdowns
against the Titans in Week 11 and now it’s looking significantly
more like the breakout has finally happened. The Packers rookie
does now face a significantly tougher matchup, however, as he’ll
be up against an Eagles defense that has been very good against
opposing wide receivers. The field-stretching wide receivers are
the ones who’ve had success against Philadelphia, though,
so there’s still hope that Watson can deliver for fantasy
managers in what could be a difficult road environment.
Christian Watson’s breakout has been the talk of fantasy
football over the past two weeks, so much so that it’s easy
to forget about the player who’s operated as the WR1 in
Green Bay for most of the season. Allen Lazard is still on the
team and still seeing volume, with 25 targets over his past three
games. He just hasn’t been able to fully connect for big
plays and touchdowns. He’s still scored double-digit fantasy
points in all but two starts he’s had this year, but he
hasn’t yet had a truly big performance as he’s yet
to reach the 20-point mark in any contest. It’s possible
that Watson starts to see more targets which ends up limiting
Lazard in what is already a difficult matchup against the Eagles,
but the Packers’ WR1 should probably still be in most fantasy
lineups this week.
The Packers wide receiver group got better in Week 11 when Randall
Cobb returned from injury and immediately led the team with 73
yards on six receptions. While those numbers look decent, Cobb
still operated as the clear WR3 in the Green Bay offense, playing
far fewer snaps than starters Allen Lazard and Christian Watson.
Cobb has just one game with more than six targets this season
and the Eagles have been very good against opposing slot receivers
this season, so this is not the week to be trying to start the
third wide receiver in what has been a bad offense.
GB FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.27
GB FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.14
GB FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.22
GB FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.22
A.J. Brown would’ve been a “no-brainer” for
much of this season, but back-to-back disappointing performances
definitely have fantasy managers questioning things. The Eagles’
WR1 has seen just 11 targets over his past two games - both down
games for the Philadelphia offense overall - but he now faces
a Packers defense that has allowed a 100-yard pass catcher in
three of their past four games, including Treylon Burks this past
week.
DeVonta Smith has been a low-upside option for most of the year,
but he’s seeing plenty of targets come his direction despite being
the second option in a low-volume passing game. He’s averaging
seven targets per game, which is good for a share of over 24 percent.
That’s only gone up over the past two weeks, as well, with the
Eagles having lost tight end Dallas Goedert for the season.
Neither Brown nor Smith are studs at the moment, but both are
pretty solid WR2s given the matchup.
The Packers have gotten lit up by opposing running backs in each
of their past two games. Tony Pollard went for 128 total yards
and a touchdown against them in Week 10 and Derrick Henry just
produced 132 total yards and a touchdown against them in Week
11. They’ve allowed six different backs to produce over 100 total
yards against them so far this season. While he’s been disappointing
in each of his past two games, Miles Sanders is still getting
the vast majority of the touches out of the Philadelphia backfield,
as Boston Scott and Kenneth Gainwell have just nine combined touches
over this two-week stretch. Sanders is unfortunately not the locked-and-loaded
RB1 that he looked like for a stretch, but he’s still getting
enough volume to be a pretty solid fantasy option for most teams.
With double-digit fantasy points in each of his past two games,
some desperate fantasy managers might be looking for a player
like Quez Watkins to be a bye-week or injury replacement. The
reality, though, is that Watkins has just been abnormally efficient
with his minimal usage as of late. He’s caught every pass
that’s been thrown his direction over his past three games,
but the problem is that has been just eight total passes. The
Eagles are just not throwing the ball enough to have more than
two reliable pass catchers on their roster. Jalen Hurts hasn’t
attempted 30 passes in a game since all the way back in Week 5,
so don’t expect that someone playing behind A.J Brown and
DeVonta Smith is going to give you any sort of reliable fantasy
production.
Freiermuth is the go-to guy in this offense in every sense of
the word. He now has at least seven targets in each of the last
four games and has at least 50 yards in three of those contests
(including two 70+ efforts). As QB Kenny Pickett evolves, the
TE will continue to be his security blanket and a valuable weapon
this week against a Colts secondary that gives up the second-fewest
fantasy points per game to WR’s.
On your dad’s Steelers teams, Harris would be the star and the
game plan wouldn’t call for 42 passes from a rookie QB. He’s a
powerful back, and now that fellow backfield mate Jaylen Warren
is dealing with a hamstring issue, Harris has taken over with
back-to-back 20-carry, 90-yard efforts. Pittsburgh will need that
again against a suffocating Colts secondary. Somebody tell Mike
Tomlin and Matt Canada to run the ball!
At one time, Johnson was expected to take over the mantle as
the top receiver on this team. That hasn’t happened. Now coaches
are talking about that title going to rookie George Pickens as
Johnson has yet to produce a 100-yard game, doesn’t have a touchdown
on the season, and hasn’t had more than five catches in a game
since Week 3.
PIT FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.3
PIT FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.16
PIT FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.1
PIT FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.24
While Pittman should continue to be the WR1 in this offense,
Campbell has seen an increased target share in the second half
of the season, and a significant jump in production the last two
weeks with Matt Ryan back at QB. Campbell has at least five targets
in five of the last six games, and over the last two contests
he has a combined 12 catches for just under 150 yards and a touchdown.
He’s a serious WR2 consideration against a Steelers secondary
that is giving up the most fantasy points per game to WR this
season.
Ryan has played better the last two weeks under interim HC Jeff
Saturday, completing well over 70% of his passes on about 30 attempts
per game against two pretty good defenses in the Raiders and Eagles.
He’s only putting up about 6.6 yards per attempt, but you
can pass on this Steelers defense that is allowing the third-most
fantasy points to QBs, giving Ryan some sneak low-end QB1 upside
in this matchup.
Prior to the season I remember there being a fair amount of talk
about the Colts having a young, dynamic tight end group, potentially
led by Granson. It hasn’t panned out. Granson has eclipsed
50 receiving yards just twice on the season, hasn’t found
the end zone, and hasn’t registered more than four targets
in a game since Week 1.
