Fantasy Football Strategy, Advice, and Commentary
By: Mike Krueger — July 10, 2014 @ 1:48 am
Player Projections, Rankings & Cheatsheets
Change Log – 7/10/14
One of the lightest updates we’ve done in recent memory. Substantive news has been lacking which is just how coaches and front office types like it this time of year.
- Ryan Mathews (+2) – Recent comments from OC Frank Reich calling Mathews the “workhorse” seems to suggest his 285 carries from a year ago might be repeated.
- LaVon Brazill (dropped) – The Colts receiver has been suspended for the entire season.
- Richard Rodgers (+20) – The Packers tight end situation is far from settled but the rookie is at least making the most of his pre-season opportunities.
By: Jake Gordon — July 7, 2014 @ 10:52 am
Chad Henne has thrown 55 TDs and 62 INTs during his six-year career.
QB Chad Henne
(2013 QB Rank—#22, 14.8 FPts/G)
If you have ever had to put Chad Henne into your fantasy lineup, you probably did so while crossing your fingers. As he keeps the seat warm for rookie Blake Bortles, Henne is rather boring in the fantasy game. Coming off a career-best 503 passing attempts, Henne barely maintained a 60 percent completion rate en route to a pedestrian 3,241 passing yards. If that wasn’t enough to drive away fantasy owners, he made sure to throw more interceptions than touchdowns. In fact, Henne has never thrown more touchdowns than interceptions in a single season during his six-year career. Most of the Jags’ receiving corps have been banged up this preseason, not to mention they’re inexperienced. At best, Henne will find some level of chemistry with his younger wideouts, keep the chains moving and limit his turnovers to allow the offense to be fantasy relevant. Unless you play in a cavernous league that starts two quarterbacks, you are better off hoping Henne is good enough to make somebody besides Toby Gerhart fantasy relevant before relinquishing the job to Bortles permanently.
QB Blake Bortles
(2013 QB Rank—N/A)
The first quarterback off the board in the 2014 draft, Blake Bortles is the future of the Jaguars. Several teams liked his strong arm and decision-making but his natural ability to elude defenders under pressure made him look more NFL-ready than others in his class. Jacksonville has set up a great environment for Bortles to thrive so long as the infusion of younger talent develops under head coach Gus Bradley. It may take another year or two, however, before the fantasy promise translates into production on the field. Chad Henne has proven to be a capable signal caller and barring injury, he should lead the Jags offense into the middle of the season while the rookie works on his craft. Bortles will likely have more value toward the middle to end of the regular season if Henne doesn’t find enough W’s. Keep him in mind as a midseason upside pickup.
RB Toby Gerhart
(2013 RB Rank—#63, 1.1 FPts/G)
The Jaguars needed to become younger on offense and increase optimism amongst an offensive unit that ranked second to last in total rushing yards during the 2013 regular season. Thus, the Jags parted ways with longtime face of the franchise Maurice Jones-Drew after injuries slowed his effectiveness in recent years. To replace one of the most popular players on the team, they turned to a guy trying to shake the shadow of an NFL great. In Toby Gerhart, Jacksonville gets a young, motivated running back that has watched and learned from the best pure running back in today’s game for the past four seasons. When given the opportunity, he has shown that he can be a productive runner between the tackles as well as in passing situations. Now he gets an opportunity to handle a full workload for a team that needs to lean on the run if it expects to stay competitive within the division. Considering that only 11 running backs toted the rock at least 250 times in 2013 after 14 surpassed that mark in 2012, Gerhart immediately becomes a rare commodity. Gerhart stands to see his draft day price increase each week leading up to the season opener so be careful not to overvalue him if the hype runs out of control. The offense has nowhere to go but up in 2014 and Gerhart will be leading the charge for fantasy owners.
RB Jordan Todman
(2013 RB Rank—#58, 3.9 FPts/G)
Jacksonville brought Jordan Todman into the fold to provide depth at the position knowing they were not going to keep Rashard Jennings following the 2012 season. In his third season as a pro, Todman finally earned the chance to show what he could do during Jacksonville’s Week 15 contest against the Bills. In that game, he set personal bests in carries (25) and rushing yards (109) while also snatching four catches for 44 yards. He will battle Denard Robinson to be the team’s primary backup to Toby Gerhart, but he will ultimately find himself short on touches to have enough value to be rostered as anything other than a handcuff for Gerhart owners.
RB Denard Robinson
(2013 WR Rank—#145, 0.6 FPts/G)
Denard Robinson remains third on the depth chart trying to carve out a role on a team needing playmakers. Recently, general manager Dave Caldwell shed light on a hand injury that Robinson has been dealing with since playing for Michigan. Nerve damage to his throwing hand made it hard to keep his hand opened fully. Through rehabilitation he has been able to regain flexibility and comes into his second training camp with renewed confidence. The Jaguars drafted Robinson in the second round a year ago knowing about the nerve damage, so they obviously believe he is capable of developing into a productive piece of the offense. A strong camp would allow Jacksonville’s coaching staff to use Robinson’s athleticism in screens and option packages, yet his fantasy value remains limited until he proves himself.
WR Cecil Shorts
(2013 WR Rank—#46, 7.4 FPts/G)
Cecil Shorts enters 2014 as the most successful fantasy wideout on the team. He also will try to help fans and fantasy owners forget the frustration of Justin Blackmon. Yet a calf injury for the second consecutive preseason has kept Jacksonville’s top receiver sidelined for most of mini-camp practices. A return during training camp is likely, however, past shoulder and concussion injuries added to the negative perception around Jacksonville’s lack of passing game will keep Shorts’ 2014 projections at bay. Despite the inherent injury risks, Shorts represents a player entering a contract year who should consistently see balls thrown his way. Last year, he saw double-digit targets in nine of his 13 games. That trend should continue, making him a stronger value in deeper PPR leagues.
WR Marqise Lee
(2013 WR Rank—N/A)
Yet another receiver who has been slowed down by injury this offseason is rookie Marquis Lee. His ankle injury should be behind him in time for training camp to start and that’s where his early value will begin to take shape. The second rounder out of USC saw his stock drop as a senior heading into the draft because of injury and an uptick in dropped passes. He will need to overcome both of those issues during the preseason to reward the Jaguars and fantasy owners. When healthy, Lee demonstrates the ability to be an explosive down field threat, as well as with reverses and plays after the catch. He is in the mix to start opposite Cecil Shorts along with Ace Sanders and fellow rookie Allen Robinson. Robinson is a little behind the others right now because of injuries as well but Jacksonville is hoping to see both players develop into a duo akin to the days of Keenan McCardell and Jimmy Smith.
WR Ace Sanders
(2013 WR Rank—#86, 3.7 FPts/G)
Ace Sanders heads into 2014 with only one season under his belt; however that makes him more experienced than most of his competition. A hamstring injury kept him out of OTAs but he is expected to be back on the field during training camp. The 5’7” receiver out of South Carolina will probably end up in the slot and handle punt returning duties giving him a chance to make plays, but preventing him from making much of a fantasy impact this season. Nonetheless, at this position, injuries are abundant and there are clear battles to be won and lost. Fantasy owners should monitor the situation during the preseason.
TE Marcedes Lewis
(2013 TE Rank—#28, 6.0 FPts/G)
It seems like forever and a day since Marcedes Lewis’ magical 10-touchdown season in 2010. He just hasn’t been able to reach that level of production since and now finds himself entering his ninth season in the league. Lewis hasn’t logged a game with over 70 yards receiving since Week 17 of 2012 and another league average year is probable. The trends suggest more decline is possible, especially with the injection of youth and an offense that is likely to focus on the ground game. Even as a matchup play it will be tough to trust Lewis as a consistent fantasy option. His backup, Clay Harbor, does not provide any significant fantasy upside.
By: Colby Cavaliere — July 5, 2014 @ 1:35 pm
QB Aaron Rodgers
(2013 QB Rank—#26, 23.0 FPts/G)
It’s strange to look at quarterback rankings from 2013 and see a double-digit number next to Aaron Rodgers’s name. He still finished tied for fourth in FPts/G. A broken collarbone sunk his stats and nearly the Packers’ season before he came back in heroic fashion to save their season in week 17 against Chicago. Rodgers has remained at the top of nearly every important fantasy quarterback stat for the past six years and he’s always in the running for first quarterback off the board. Will Rodgers pick right up where he left off and continue to make Green Bay’s offense a fantasy factory?
Let’s not be silly, if Rodgers is your starting quarterback, your roster will be in great hands. Coaches and players lie, but numbers usually don’t. If Rodgers had played the full season, he would have finished 2013 with roughly 4,500 yards, 30 touchdowns and 10 interceptions. Those numbers would have put him in the low end of the top 10 and approached his career starter lows.
There are a few factors to consider before making that all-important quarterback selection, though. First, the emergence of Eddie Lacy. The rookie runner carried the ball 285 times and 11 scores last year and proved to be the reliable and efficient running back the Packers have been looking for since Ryan Grant in 2009. Grant’s numbers from that year are eerily similar to those of Lacy last year: 1,100 yards with 11 touchdowns. Rodgers in 2009: 4,400-30-7, very close to his 16-game projection for 2013. Another factor to consider is the change in player personnel. In consecutive offseasons Rodgers has lost familiar veteran pass catchers in Greg Jennings, James Jones and Jermichael Finley. Their talent will be easy to replace, as Rodgers makes the players around him better. Working with younger receivers in Randall Cobb and Jarrett Boykin and a potential rookie tight end could affect his consistency, especially early in the year. The bottom line here is that Rodgers is one of the league’s best, but baring major injury to the running back corps, he won’t be asked to carry this team like in 2011 and 2012. Expect numbers to be closer to that of mere mortals, but still good enough to make him a top QB1 selection.
A fantasy step-forward from Eddie Lacy will be difficult if Rodgers remains healthy.
RB Eddie Lacy
(2013 RB Rank—#7, 14.0 FPts/G)
In 2013, Eddie Lacy rumbled his way into the fantasy scene and into the record books for one of the NFL’s most storied franchises. Great things were expected from the first-round rookie, and despite a very slow start – 51 yards in 15 carries after three games – he nearly single handedly kept the Packers season alive when Aaron Rodgers missed time with a broken collarbone. His nearly 1400 yard, 11 touchdown season was much needed given the team’s instability. Lacy finished as a top-10 back in just his first year, during which he had 10 games of 20+ carries, and was the sole offensive threat for most of those contests. As a true 3-down, goal line back on an elite offensive team, Lacy should maintain a grip on RB1 status. For fantasy owners looking for a vast improvement in his numbers, though, they might want to think again.
What Lacy excels at is far more important on the field than in a fantasy box score. He was an elite pass-blocker and ball handler last season with only one fumble. There has been chatter that the Green Bay staff wants to lessen the running load on Lacy during the upcoming season. Lightening the load might be a good idea, as Lacy suffered a severe concussion early in the year and played with an ankle injury down the stretch. He wasn’t the most explosive back last year with only nine carries of 15+ yards. He gained yardage mostly with pile-moving leg drive and nimble feet at and near the line of scrimmage. His volume of carries was leveraged against a decent, but nothing-special 4.1 yards-per-carry average.
The return of Rodgers should open up the offense and allow Lacy some bigger running lanes, but at the same time, result in fewer carries. Injury aside, rushing yardage totals should be very close to where they were in 2013. What will elevate Lacy into the top five or relegate him to fringe RB1 status are his touchdown totals. With Rodgers at the helm full-time, more scoring chances should be available. However, Mike McCarthy has always been comfortable allowing Rodgers to throw inside the red zone and that philosophy won’t change especially with Randall Cobb coming back from his leg injury. Expect Lacy’s 2014 numbers to be close to his career highs, but not quite good enough to carry your fantasy roster alone.
RB James Starks
(2013 RB Rank—#46, 6.3 FPts/G)
During his four-year career with the Packers, James Starks has been a playoff hero, a training room resident and on-the-roster bubble. In the early offseason of 2013, he was nearly cut or traded away following the drafting of rookies Eddie Lacy and Jonathan Franklin. This year, he signed a new contract and plays a valuable back-up role on a playoff team. What happened? Well for one, Starks stayed relatively healthy. Playing in a career-high 13 games, Starks amassed nearly 500 yards and three touchdowns playing second fiddle to Lacy. Secondly, he capitalized on the struggles and subsequent injuries to rookie Jonathan Franklin and DuJuan Harris, and showed why lack of health and not talent has held him back from his true potential. Sporting an explosive 5.5 yard-per-carry average, Starks is back on the fantasy map, but unfortunately, barring a long-term injury to Lacy, is no more than a deep roster stash or handcuff. With coaching-staff-favorite Harris healthy, Rodgers back in the fold and Lacy dominating carries, don’t expect much from Starks in 2014. Maybe that’s what fantasy owners should have done all along with Starks. though. You can, however, hope for surprising value at some point in the season.
RB DuJuan Harris
(2013 RB Rank—N/A)
Despite missing all of 2013 with a knee injury, the 5’8’’ scatback from Troy gives the Packers an offensive element they hoped to get from Jonathan Franklin before he was released this offseason with a career-ending neck injury. His familiarity with the system and loss of Franklin allow Harris to stay on the roster and earn a handful of touches. Should Lacy miss an extended amount of time, Harris would likely be part of a three-headed committee and could warrant a look by a needy owner.
WR Jordy Nelson
(2013 WR Rank—#11, 11.2 FPts/G)
“White Chocolate” was once again a sweet treat for fantasy owners in 2013. The king of the sideline toe tap combines elite body control, precise route running and deceptive speed to be considered a perennial top pick at wide receiver. Even without Aaron Rodgers for a long stretch of the season, Nelson was able to improve on his No. 11 ranking from 2012, while setting career highs in catches (85) and yards (1,314). With the loss of Greg Jennings and James Jones, Nelson remains Rodgers’ most familiar and reliable target. Nelson’s effective back-shoulder fade and ability to take short screens long distances make him a consistent fantasy wide receiver fixture, as long as Rodgers is throwing him the ball, which may not for long. Nelson is entering the last year of his contract and remains in negotiations for an extension. Constantly fighting and clawing for respect since drafted out of Kansas State, Nelson isn’t likely to see a spike in production due to contract motivations. He could expect Rodgers to throw him the ball for 16 games. Nelson racked up four of his five, 100-yard games and seven of his eight touchdowns with Rodgers behind center. While the outside receiver in the Packers West Coast system doesn’t usually flirt with extremely high catch totals, Nelson is a strong bet to approach his career-high 15 touchdown total from 2011. With the return of a healthy Randall Cobb and a more balanced offensive attack, Nelson’s yardage and catch totals could dip slightly, with an uptick in touchdowns. Because he does more with less – with the second-lowest number of targets for a receiver in the top 15 – and plays with one of the league’s best quarterbacks, Nelson could give you WR1 value at a WR2 price.
WR Randall Cobb
(2013 WR Rank—#61, 12.5 FPts/G)
Coming off an 80-954-8 line in 2012, Randall Cobb was poised to enter 2013 as a serious threat among the upper tier of fantasy wide receivers. He was on his way, combining for a ridiculous 22 targets, 16 catches, 236 yards and two touchdowns in the season’s first two weeks. He cooled slightly over the next several weeks before suffering a broken leg in Week 6. He returned in heroic fashion with teammate Aaron Rodgers in Week 17 to net two scores to beat the Bears.
Once again, Cobb enters a season with big expectations. With the changing of the guard out wide, the Packers will count on Cobb more than ever to be a reliable target for Rodgers. Can fantasy owners once again put their trust in Cobb to approach WR1 numbers in an era when the wide receiver position is at its deepest in history? Because of his mastery in the slot, ability to use his quickness to get separation and role in the offense, Cobb certainly should be among the league leaders in targets in 2014.
What separates tiers of receivers are their ability and opportunity to score touchdowns. When it comes to touchdowns, bigger is usually better. Those 6’2’’+, 210 pound receivers are able to use their frames to do something Cobb can’t: outmuscle defensive backs for jump balls, slants and curls in the red zone. In his three years, Cobb has proven to be able to do something very few receivers his size haven’t been able to do: score in or very near the red zone. Eight of his 13 career touchdowns receptions have come from 22 yards or less. This is a better rate than similarly-sized Victor Cruz and very close to that of mighty mite Wes Welker, whose last 14 touchdowns were from inside the red zone. Play calling, ability and an elite quarterback mean that Cobb should be able to record double-digit touchdowns, and that combined with catch totals that should be in excess of 80. Cobb is someone you can draft as a WR2 but who could end up out-producing your WR1.
WR Jarrett Boykin
(2013 WR Rank #55—7.2 FPts/G)
Aaron Rodgers is one of those rare quarterbacks who make the receivers around him better. Fantasy owners should then keep a keen eye on the fight for the No. 3 receiver in the Green Bay offense, as the winner of this battle could provide some sneaky WR3 play in 2014. Returning to fight for this role is Jarrett Boykin. Because of injury, Boykin was forced into just eight starts last year and played well in his 16 total games with 49 catches, 689 yards and three scores, especially since all of this production came from Week 6 on. His three, 100-yard games, and four games of 10+ targets signify that coaches were comfortable enough making him a significant part of the game plan at certain times. Should Boykin hold off second-round rookie Devante Adams and lock down the No. 3 role, he could benefit from the loss of James Jones and Jermichael Finley, and put up numbers that would make him a late-round or waiver-wire steal.
WR Davante Adams
(2013 WR Rank—N/A)
Davante Adams, the 6’1’’ rookie from Fresno State, makes up for his lack of experience with superior natural ability. He led the nation in catches and receiving touchdowns as a red-shirt sophomore. While he isn’t a burner, he fits the mold of receivers that the Packers have been able to develop over the last several seasons. Watch the opportunities he gets in camp and preseason games. If he is able to impart a measure of confidence with his coaches and quarterback, Adams could push for serious playing time in the middle part of the year, making him a waiver-wire pick to watch.
TE Andrew Quarless
(2013 TE Rank—#40, 3.3 FPts/G)
The tight position in Green Bay was a fantasy wasteland after the loss of Jermichael Finley in Week 7. Barring his miraculous return, there probably won’t be a TE1 or TE2 to emerge from this logjam position in 2014.
Typically counted on as a quality blocker at the edge or attack, Andrew Quarless was pressed into receiver duty because of the serious neck injury suffered by Finley. As you can see by his No. 40 final ranking, he didn’t exactly burn up the stat sheet. His familiarity with the system and new contract give him a leg up in the battle with second-year man Brandon Bostick and rookie third-round pick Richard Rodgers. His injury history – an ACL tear in 2012 and missing all offseason work thus far in 2014 – and athletic limitations don’t make him a very attractive fantasy option.
Bostik, the former college wide receiver, offers athletic upside, but broke his foot late last year and is still working his way back into condition.
Rodgers, the third-round pick from Cal, averaged a wide-receiver-like 15.5 yards-per-catch and is in his final season with the Golden Bears. He offers the best glimmer of hope for fantasy owners. Recent reports indicate that he has been playing well in OTAs. Should he prove to be a capable blocker, he could emerge from the pack as the starter and might be worth keeping an eye on.
By: Sal Marcoccio — July 3, 2014 @ 1:23 pm
Foles’ performance in 2013 means he won’t last past Round 6 in your fantasy draft.
QB Nick Foles
(2013 QB Rank—#17, 22.5 FPts/G)
As a tall, slow and lumbering pocket passer, Nick Foles didn’t fit the part of a quarterback that would thrive in the Chip Kelly system, but after he took over for an injured Michael Vick, he certainly proved otherwise. It turned out that Kelly’s system didn’t necessarily need an athletic quarterback that could take off and gain yards with his legs, as was the case at Oregon, but could be mastered by a smart, accurate and tough quarterback as well. Surprisingly, Foles did do enough with his legs to end the season with 225 yards and three scores on the ground. More impressively, Foles put up 2,891 passing yards with 27 touchdowns against only two interceptions. Foles accomplished that in basically 12 games, as he threw a mere four passes while replacing Vick in Week 4. The second-year quarterback finished eighth in completion percentage (64.0), first in yards per attempt (9.12), and first in quarterback rating (119.2). Foles’ miraculous season ended with him winning the Pro Bowl MVP, and left fantasy owners salivating over what he may do with a full offseason of preparation as a starter and with 16 starts potentially awaiting him in 2014. On a points per game basis, Foles was the sixth-best quarterback in fantasy football last season and it’s easy to argue that he has room for improvement. Although he loses his offense’s top receiving weapon from last season in Desean Jackson, he gains veteran Jeremy Maclin – who returns from an offseason ACL tear – in addition to rookie Jordan Matthews and former Saints running back Darren Sproles. Foles could potentially end up being overdrafted in upcoming drafts, but it’s hard not to like his chances of finishing as a top-five fantasy quarterback.
RB LeSean McCoy
(2013 RB Rank— #2, 17.5 FPts/G)
LeSean McCoy thrived in the Chip Kelly offense, rushing for 1,607 yards and nine touchdowns while adding 52 receptions for 540 yards and another two scores through the air. The Eagles finished 13th in plays from scrimmage with their fast-paced offense and will look to speed things up again in 2014. McCoy was a major part of that offense with 314 carries and 52 receptions. There has been some talk of lessening McCoy’s load a bit this season, but it’s hard to see a major dip especially if the team does manage to run more plays this season than it did last season. McCoy is one of the more exciting players in the league with the ball in his hands and his ability to stop and change directions with unbelievable cuts and jukes is reminiscent of the great Barry Sanders. McCoy’s production initially declined when the team made the switch at quarterback from Michael Vick to Nick Foles, but it quickly rounded back into form after a few weeks. McCoy will turn 26 this month, so he’s really just entering the peak of his prime years. McCoy is a player to seriously consider as early as the No. 1 overall pick in fantasy drafts this season.
RB Chris Polk
(2013 RB Rank—#75, 5.7 FPts/G)
Chris Polk started the season ranked third on the running back depth chart, but passed Bryce Brown while averaging an impressive 6.5 yards per carry in his limited action. Polk is one of the most valuable handcuffs in fantasy football since he has the talent to thrive and will see plenty of carries in an offense that finished fourth in rushing attempts in 2013. Polk’s shoulder issues, which caused him to go undrafted out of Washington, should be resolved after a surgery in the offseason. The team seems confident enough in his health that they shipped off Brown in a draft day trade. At 5’11” and 222 pounds, Polk is a power back that rarely fumbles and can grind out yards inside. It would likely require a LeSean McCoy injury for Polk to have any value – outside of handcuff value – in all but the deepest of leagues. If the McCoy owner leaves him on the waiver wire, though, Polk could be a difference maker in fantasy leagues should an opportunity arise.
RB Darren Sproles
(2013 RB Rank—#35, 7.1 FPts/G)
When Darren Sproles was released by the New Orleans Saints in a cost-cutting move, it was hard to imagine that he could possibly maintain his value at age 31 in any other setting. Luckily for him and his owners, he probably landed in the second-best location for his fantasy value. In standard leagues, Sproles is probably not worth the price that his name recognition will cost you, but in PPR leagues, he should have another productive season as the Eagles look to him to help fill the void left when Desean Jackson was released. Sproles may not see the 70+ receptions that were commonplace during his three years with New Orleans, but 60 receptions is likely a solid baseline to use when projecting his 2014 season. While LeSean McCoy is healthy, Sproles will likely be used in the backup running back role, seeing a handful of carries per game. If McCoy was to go down, though, it’s unlikely Sproles’ role would increase. He’d likely still be a change of pace back to Chris Polk.
WR Jeremy Maclin
(2013 WR Rank—N/A)
Jeremy Maclin tore his ACL in late July last offseason, forcing him to miss the entire 2013 season. He signed a one-year deal in February to stay with Philadelphia where he can likely build up his market value in the Eagles’ high-flying offense. He has reportedly looked fantastic in OTAs and is expected to be 100 percent for training camp. Maclin has averaged 860 yards over the course of the four NFL seasons, but he has never surpassed 1,000 yards in a season. There’s a very good chance that will change this season, as Maclin is likely to be the main beneficiary of Desean Jackson’s departure. He should lead the team in targets. Maclin isn’t the prototypical WR1 type at only 6’0”, 198 lbs., but he has enough speed and direction to find open spaces and make things happen after the catch in the complex Chip Kelly passing attack. Like Jackson did in 2013, Maclin should have a career year with this offense.
WR Riley Cooper
(2013 WR Rank—#24, 8.3 FPts/G)
Riley Cooper made headlines during the last offseason as a result of being caught on tape using a racial slur. To his and his teammates credit he was able to move past it quickly and rewarded his teammates faith in him by helping the Eagles reach the postseason as their second-best wide receiver. On the way, he put up a 47-833-8 stat-line and was an integral part of the rushing attack as well due to his skills as a blocker. Cooper, who isn’t known for his blazing speed was able to average 17.8 yards per reception due to his strong frame (6’3”, 222 lbs.) and the trust of his quarterback, Nick Foles, who wasn’t afraid to put the ball up where Cooper could go up and fight for it. This season may be a little tougher for Cooper without Desean Jackson’s downfield speed drawing safety coverage. The team was impressed enough with Cooper’s game, though, to sign him to a five-year $25 million contract this offseason. He should also see himself in the starting lineup once again. With Jackson’s departure and with a full season of Foles throwing him the ball, Cooper could be in for an even bigger season in 2014.
WR Jordan Matthews
(2013 WR Rank—N/A)
The Eagles selected Vanderbilt wide receiver Jordan Matthews with the 42nd overall pick in the NFL Draft. Based on some reports, he has already looked like the best wide receiver on the roster and is slated to start the season in the slot and possibly push Riley Cooper on the outside. Matthews is the all-time leader in catches and yards in the Southeastern Conference history, despite playing for a team that wasn’t known for its prolific passing attack. It’s always a risky proposition to draft a rookie wide out in redraft leagues, but Matthews surely has some sleeper appeal based on his talent and situation. The majority of his fantasy value is likely to come later in the season once he becomes familiar with Chip Kelly’s offense.
TE Zach Ertz
(2013 TE Rank—#20, 4.7 FPts/G)
The tight end position is one of the more difficult transitions from the college ranks into the professional game. Zach Ertz didn’t put up eye-popping numbers (36-469-4), but he showed enough promise on the field that the big leap could be in store during his sophomore campaign. His position coach recently compared him to Hall of Famers Shannon Sharpe and Ozzie Newsome, and while that may be too heavy praise for the youngster, Ertz has the size and athleticism to make plays on Sundays. Many of the Philadelphia beat writers have cited Ertz as a big part of the team’s plans to replace Desean Jackson’s production. A TE1 fantasy season should be in store for Ertz in 2014.
WR Brent Celek
(2013 TE Rank—#14, 5.4 FPts/G)
There was a time when Brent Celek paid dividends to owners who waited before selecting a tight end in fantasy drafts. Those days are no more, however. Celek was reduced to the role of a blocking tight end last season in the Chip Kelly offense and that is not expected to change in 2014.
By: Mike Krueger — @ 9:57 am
Player Projections, Rankings & Cheatsheets
Change Log – 7/03/14
- Tony Romo (+2) – Starting to shift my thinking on the Cowboys offense. Romo likely to be the centerpiece, not the running game.
- Tom Brady (+1) – Brady’s fantasy value hinges on how quickly Gronk (knee) can return.
- DeMarco Murray (-1) – Admittedly I still don’t have a firm handle on the Cowboys running game. I’m trending toward a timeshare which means Murray is overvalued even with this slight bump downward.
- Eddie Lacy (+3) – Added a TD to Lacy’s projections. Hard to see him getting as many looks in the red zone if Rodgers plays a full 16 games but he won’t be forgotten around the goaline either.
- Lance Dunbar (+7) – May be in for Joique Bell-type season.
- Jacquizz Rodgers (–11) – Redistributed yardage between Rodgers and Freeman.
- Devonta Freeman (+8) – See Rodgers above. Freeman also comes with upside of getting first and second- down carries should SJax come down with an injury.
- Dez Bryant (+1) – Swapped Dez and A.J. Green in Tier 2 with Dez being borderline Tier 1.
- Rob Gronkowski (+11) – While I’m still skeptical that Gronk (knee) will see action early in the season, his upside is so valuable that my initial ranking of him was likely too low.
By: Nick Caron — July 2, 2014 @ 12:39 am
MJD and a long injury history has McFadden’s fantasy value at a career low.
QB Matt Schaub
(2013 QB Rank—#34, 6.1 FPts/G)
It took just one season for the Houston Texans to fall the way from vying for the top seed in the AFC playoffs to picking No. 1 overall in the NFL Draft. Although the team went through a number of changes, the lack of quality quarterback play seemed to be the biggest problem that the team faced. A horrendous start to the season from Matt Schaub led to the formerly-considered “franchise” quarterback being benched after Week 6. Although Schaub would see some playing time again in a few spot starts, it was clear that his time in Houston had passed and it was time for both parties to go their separate ways. Schaub now finds himself in an equally terrible situation, but this time he will be without his safety blanket Andre Johnson. Instead Schaub will be working with a hodgepodge group of receivers that he has no chemistry with, on a team that is unlikely to be competitive in many games. Schaub may become a bye week fill-in, but he is unlikely to be drafted in most fantasy leagues and should not be trusted until he can prove that his days of touchdown streaks to the opposing team are behind him.
RB Maurice Jones-Drew
(2013 RB Rank—#19, 8.3 FPts/G)
It seems like only yesterday that Maurice Jones-Drew was a lock to be a top-five fantasy draft choice in every league throughout the country, but his days of averaging over 1,500 total yards and 12 touchdowns per season appear to be a thing of the past. Like his quarterback Schaub, Jones-Drew now finds himself across the country, stuck in an uninspiring offense that appears to be set on rekindling past glory of past-their-prime players. Worse yet, Jones-Drew joins a crowded backfield that features fellow former first-round fantasy pick Darren McFadden and second-year speedster Latavius Murray. While Jones-Drew appears to have the upper hand on winning the starting job in Oakland, a running-back-by-committee approach seems very feasible. Even if Jones-Drew does earn the full-time starting gig, it will be in an offense that is likely to be among the very worst in the league, so don’t expect another double-digit touchdown season. Jones-Drew is a high-end RB3 for the time being, with RB2 upside and a significant downside that makes him a risk even late in drafts.
RB Darren McFadden
(2013 RB Rank—#45, 5.7 FPts/G)
How many times are fantasy owners going to get bit by the Darren McFadden bug before we finally all get together and decide we’ve had enough? Don’t look for the trend to end anytime soon as McFadden is still being drafted in the top-10 rounds of most fantasy drafts so far this off-season. There’s no question that the talent is there, but McFadden just doesn’t seem to have the determination to be great anymore and his offensive line certainly hasn’t helped matters. Over the past three seasons, McFadden has played in just 26 games while averaging only 3.8 yards per carry and scoring 11 touchdowns. While his price tag on draft day is at an all-time low, McFadden still represents a significant risk with little upside. It would take an injury to Jones-Drew, a suddenly productive offense and a shockingly healthy McFadden for him to ever return to the fantasy glory he once had, if only for a short while. Nonetheless, McFadden is still worth a late-round flier. Don’t expect much from him, though, or you’re likely going to be let down…again.
RB Latavius Murray
(2013 RB Rank—N/A)
The ankle injury that ended the rookie season of former Central Florida running back Latavius Murray leaves fantasy owners scratching their heads as we look forward to the 2014 season. Murray, a monstrous running back who stands 6’3” and weighs around 230 lbs, is the kind of physically-imposing talent that could make opposing defenses shake in their boots. Better yet, his sub-4.40 40-speed makes him an astonishingly gifted athlete with tremendous upside. Unfortunately the coaching staff in Oakland does not seem to have a whole lot of confidence in this second-year tailback. Murray will start the year third on the depth chart behind Maurice Jones-Drew and Darren McFadden and will likely remain the low man on the totem pole until the inevitable injury to one of his veteran backfield companions. At that point, Murray could see more playing time and if he can live up to the hype, could be a decent fantasy asset down the stretch. He is currently being drafted as an RB4 or RB5 in most leagues, but possesses much more upside than most of the other players being drafted around or below him.
WR James Jones
(2013 WR Rank—#45, 5.7 FPts/G)
It’s not often that a player leads the entire NFL in receiving touchdowns and then proceeds to be the third receiver drafted from that team in fantasy leagues the following season, but that’s what happened to James Jones in 2013. Jones’ impending regression was obvious to most who follow the game, but even they could not have predicted that he would finish the season with just three touchdowns in the fast-paced Green Bay offense. Jones joins a cast of new faces in the Oakland offense that has yet to gel, but still possesses the talent to be a quality fantasy asset, especially if he does secure one of the starting receiver spots in Oakland. With Schaub behind center instead of Aaron Rodgers, don’t expect to ever see Jones reproduce the numbers he did back in 2012, but this could be a decent bounce-back season for him nevertheless.
WR Denarius Moore
(2013 WR Rank—#41, 5.9 FPts/G)
Moments of brilliance from wide receiver Denarius Moore have been overshadowed by long droughts that have led fantasy owners—and the Raiders—to rethink their commitment to the highly-touted young pass-catcher. Moore has had some incredibly fast starts to his past two seasons including nearly 1,100 yards and nine touchdowns during Weeks 1 through 8 in 2013 and 2014, but has followed them up by some disastrous second-half stats: just 348 yards and three touchdowns. Moore has been the team’s primary deep threat over the past few seasons, but will now compete for those looks with free-agency acquisition Jones, as well as Rod Streater. There is little reason to believe that having a new quarterback behind center named Schaub is going to lead to a sudden surge of consistency from Moore, so drafting him as anything other than a late-round flyer is ill-advised.
WR Rod Streater
(2013 WR Rank—#35, 6.5 FPts/G)
While it was Denarius Moore who had the hype heading into 2013, it was actually second-year receiver Rod Streater who ended up being the most productive receiver wearing silver and black. Streater was surprisingly consistent, locking up at least 40 yards in all but two games while leading the team with 99 targets. Unfortunately, it’s unclear where Streater sits on the depth chart at this time, but it’s safe to assume that he will have more competition for targets now that Jones is in town. Streater will go undrafted in many leagues but could find himself back on fantasy rosters as a bye-week fill-in or if one of the other two receivers goes down with an injury.
TE Mychal Rivera
(2013 TE Rank—#23, 3.8 FPts/G)
Now entering his second year in the league, Mychal Rivera should have the inside track on being the best fantasy tight end in Oakland. Unfortunately, that doesn’t necessarily mean that he’s going to see the field very often. Early training camp reports indicate that Rivera is working from behind David Ausberry at Raiders OTA’s, likely showing us that the Raiders are more interested in their tight ends being extra blockers than they are with them being dynamic pass-catchers. Rivera’s 38 receptions for 407 yards and four touchdowns, most of which came in the second half of the season, go to show that he could be a fantasy option if given the opportunity. Not only that, but with Schaub behind center—the guy who made both Owen Daniels and Joel Dreessen into fantasy names—there does to be at least a chance that Rivera could end up on some fantasy rosters by the end of the season. For now, though, we need to wait and see what happens with the Oakland offense. So far, it’s unproven and expected to be among the worst in the league. Furthermore, Rivera isn’t even the starter at his position. Avoid him on draft day, but pay attention to the target distribution throughout the season.
By: Jake Gordon — June 30, 2014 @ 9:56 am
QB Drew Brees
(2013 QB Rank—#2, 27.3 FPts/G)
Since Drew Brees and head coach Sean Payton came to New Orleans in 2006, the Saints offense has ranked in the top four of the NFL in yards per game every season. Hitching your wagon to Brees might come with a premium, but he rarely disappoints his fantasy owners. A steady veteran, Brees connected on 15 passes of 40+ yards and eclipsed 300 passing yards in 11 of 16 contests during the 2013 regular season en route to his third straight year with over 5,000 yards. He even found a way to decrease his interception total from the previous year. The only downside was the increase in games without multiple touchdown passes. After failing to throw for at least two scores only three times during the 2012 regular season, Brees amassed five such games a year ago. The loss of Darren Sproles and Lance Moore will certainly have an impact on the Saints signal caller but not enough to push him out of the top-five fantasy quarterbacks.
RB Pierre Thomas
(2013 RB Rank—#23, 8.5 FPts/G)
Pierre Thomas continued to be a quality value on draft day in 2013 after posting over 1,000 total yards for the first time since 2009. Those owners who were lucky enough to snatch him up in PPR leagues were also rewarded with a career best 77 receptions—six more than Darren Sproles. Heading into the 2014 campaign, Thomas should be the starter out of the backfield. The team’s desire to use several running backs to shoulder the load keeps Thomas from being a top-25 fantasy running back, though. His reception total is sustainable considering how many passes Drew Brees throws to his running backs and the departure of Sproles. Far from elite, the seven-year veteran could once again be a relative bargain on draft day.
RB Khiry Robinson
(2013 RB Rank—#79, 2.8 FPts/G)
As an undrafted free agent, Khiry Robinson put himself into a position to garner more carries late last season when he scored his first career touchdown and averaged 4.6 yards per carry during the Saints’ final three games of the year. Likely to begin the season No. three on the depth chart this season, Robinson will have limited fantasy value when the season opens barring an injury to Pierre Thomas or Mark Ingram during training camp. Fantasy owners seeking a potential lotto ticket, however, will likely see Robinson as a worthy upside option. If he is able to somehow convince the Saints to give him a dozen carries per game he will have value as a flex option.
RB Mark Ingram
(2013 RB Rank—#62, 4.7 FPts/G)
Mark Ingram enters the final year of his rookie deal without much fanfare as he has yet to provide the Saints or fantasy owners with steady production. Of the 10 New Orleans rushing scores in 2013, Ingram was only responsible for one. Pierre Thomas led the way while Ingram was hampered by injuries, receiving double-digit carries only twice during the regular season. The Saints will need him to show the same physicality and quickness he flashed during his collegiate career if they are to extend him another contract offer. Optimistic owners will bank on a motivated runner with plenty of talent and a cheap price tag. Those more adverse to risk will see another Heisman Trophy winner who fizzled on the NFL stage.
WR Marques Colston
(2013 WR Rank—#27, 8.3 FPts/G)
Marques Colston turned 31 this offseason and is coming off his least-productive fantasy season since an injury-plagued 2008. As long as Drew Brees is leading the offense, Colston will have the chance to be a relevant fantasy option. Tthe days of Colston being a steady producer as a WR1 are behind us, however. Younger options in Kenny Stills and Brandin Cooks are poised to see the field more in 2014 yet Colston remains the most polished and trusted target amongst the team’s receiving corps. While continued decline isn’t out of the question, the Hofstra alumnus could easily see his touchdown total increase this year to make him a low-end WR2.
WR Kenny Stills
(2013 WR Rank—#47, 5.9 FPts/G)
The Saints’ decision to release Lance Moore translates to a vote of confidence in Kenny Stills. A second-year player out of Oklahoma, Stills should see more balls thrown his way in 2014. Will it be enough to make him fantasy relevant on a weekly basis, though? Like many Saints wideouts, Drew Brees’ knack for spreading the ball to everyone is a blessing and a curse. Simply replacing Moore’s production would make him a useful WR4. On the other hand, Marques Colston’s decline and injury history combined with Stills’ continued development into a reliable move-the-chains type of receiver makes him attractive late in drafts. A strong training camp will solidify his starting position opposite Colston and see his fantasy stock start to rise as the season nears.
WR Brandin Cooks
(2013 WR Rank—N/A)
Rookie wideout Brandin Cooks missed the Saints’ mini-camps and most OTAs because Oregon State’s school year runs a little longer than other programs. To make up for lost time, the 2013 Biletnikoff award winner plans on working with QB Drew Brees prior to the start of training camp. His explosive speed should make him an instant threat in the Saints vertical passing game while his quickness will give him chances to make plays after the catch. He should fit the offense perfectly, but may need some seasoning before being a solid fantasy contributor.
King of the Tight Ends: Jimmy Graham has 36 touchdowns over the last three years.
TE Jimmy Graham
(2013 TE Rank—#1, 13.6 FPts/G)
A TE1 with WR1 production, Jimmy Graham will carry the torch as the top fantasy TE entering the year. In only his fourth year as a starter, Graham will try to become even more consistent after seeing his production slip over the course of the 2013 season following a hot start. As defenses continually evolve to handle the likes of Graham, there is a chance they succeed as Seattle did during last year’s divisional playoff game in limiting Graham to a single catch on six targets. Fantasy owners considering the stud TE in the first round will no doubt place their confidence in position dominance. Yet that gap may not be as large as it appears given a modest regression in the touchdown column and increased yardage totals from fellow tight ends Jordan Cameron and Julius Thomas, among others. Regardless of how you feel on draft day, Graham will likely set the pace for all tight ends once again.
By: Colby Cavaliere — June 27, 2014 @ 1:23 pm
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Cutler is primed for his second 4000-yard passing season if he can stay healthy.
QB Jay Cutler
(2013 QB Rank—#24, 19.9 FPts/G)
The Chicago Bears clearly put their franchise in the hands of Jay Cutler for the foreseeable future and paid him like an elite quarterback, lavished him with a fresh seven-year, $126 million deal in the offseason. Should fantasy owners feel the same confidence? Cutler has always been on the fringe of being a consistent fantasy starter, but injury, scheme or sieve-like offensive line play have always conspired to keep him from being a reliable QB1. In 2013, with a new coach, offensive philosophy and towering targets in Brandon Marshall, Alshon Jeffrey and Martellus Bennett, Cutler was off to a strong start, throwing for 12 scores after the first six games. But serious groin and ankle injuries caused Cutler to miss significant snaps and left the door open for Josh McCown to have career resurgence.
Enjoying a healthy and productive offseason, Cutler is an intriguing option for owners looking for a sneaky value pick at quarterback. Blessed with a terrific system, mentality and elite receiving options, Cutler is primed for a repeat of his 2008 season in Denver when he passed for 4,500 yards and 25 touchdowns. His injury concerns are valid because of the die-hard way he plays the game, but looking at his medical history, there are no sign of chronic, repeated problems. His arm has always been healthy, and despite missing 12 games over the last three years (six of which were from a freak thumb injury), he is a very tough field general who plays and effectively so, although they’re minor injuries. Fantasy owners looking to stockpile receiver or running back talent before landing a quarterback should keep Cutler in mind. Currently hovering in low tier QB1/upper QB2 territory, Cutler has the gridiron environment to possibly sneak his way into the middle tier and become a real steal.
RB Matt Forte
(2013 RB Rank —#3, 16.6 FPts/G)
The demise of the elite, reliable volume running back has been swift and harsh. Fortunately for his fantasy owners, someone forgot to tell Matt Forte. Forte continues to be one of the game’s best dual threats and reliable ball carriers, as he posted another fantastic season in 2013 with 1,339 yards on the ground, along with 75 catches for an additional 592 yards receiving. Forte also tied his career high with 12 total scores. He set career highs as a receiver in Marc Tressman’s new offensive system, and his work as a pass receiver sets him apart from many of his peers. What makes Forte such a valuable fantasy asset is not only his ability to carry your team to victory once or twice a year, but his consistency. He ranks No. 2 in FFToday’s consistency ratings at running back with only three games scoring single-digit fantasy points. Forte continues to play at an elite level, even as he enters the season at 28 years old. Combining superior vision and tackle-breaking ability even without blazing speed, especially in the screen game, Forte will benefit from several factors entering this season. Draft him, plug him in as your offensive centerpiece and pray he stays healthy!
RB Ka’Deem Carey
(2013 RB Rank—N/A)
Fourth-round rookies buried behind veteran superstars usually garner few fantasy headlines. Winning fantasy owners don’t read headlines, though. They look deeper. Coming off a ridiculous 1,885-19-5.4 season for the Arizona Wildcats, Ka’Deem Carey plummeted to the middle rounds due to a lackluster 40-yard dash time and character issues. Possessing many of the similar traits as starter Matt Forte – body control, lateral agility and pass receiving ability – Carey inds himself in a fertile environment to develop. He won’t be asked to play many snaps, barring an injury to Forte, but should that happen, Carey has the volume opportunity to provide some tremendous RB2 value to the forward thinking owner. Carey might be one of the few “must own” handcuffs in the league, and Forte owners will be sure to draft him, but don’t be scared to select him and stash him on your bench even if don’t own the Tulane star.
RB Shaun Draughn
(2013 RB Rank—N/A)
In a time when running back talent is as scarce as ever, it’s important to pay close attention to camp battles at backup spots. Although the talent and pedigree of Ka’Deem Carey should propel him to the back-up RB spot in Chicago, watch closely the amount of reps second-year undrafted free-agent Michael Ford and veteran journeyman Shaun Draughn receive in pre-season practice. Coach Marc Tressman isn’t going to lock anyone into backup slots too soon, so be thorough in your research and preparation. Sometimes the most expensive diamonds have to be mined from the deepest caves.
WR Brandon Marshall
(2013 WR Rank—#6, 12.6 FPts/G)
Obscure duo references notwithstanding, Brandon Marshall and Jay Cutler are as locked-at-the-hip as they come in professional sports. Signing his own mega contract extension this offseason, Marshall seems to have contained his demons and focused on becoming a professional football player. Combining rare physical gifts with boundless emotion, Marshall has entered the prime of his career improving his technical and mental game. While he underperformed in overall yardage and catch totals since 2012, Marshall still had over 100 catches for the fifth time in his career and had a personal-best 12 touchdown grabs. For as long as they are together, Cutler will have his radar locked on to Marshall, which makes him one of the most reliable pass catchers in the league. The emergence of fellow wide receiver Alshon Jeffrey and the continued threat of Matt Forte mean defenses can’t scheme Marshall out of the game. Expect another season of 90+ catches, 1,200 yards and double digit touchdowns, landing Marshall in the upper tier of WR1s.
WR Alshon Jeffery
(2013 WR Rank—#9, 12.2 FPts/G)
After the first three games of the 2013 season, Alshon Jeffery had 13 catches for 104 yards and zero touchdowns, not a great start for a highly touted second-round pick coming off a disappointing rookie year. So, forgive the fantasy world if they didn’t see the 1,317 yards and seven touchdowns that came in the final 13 games. Jeffrey was one of fantasy’s biggest and most surprising stars of the 2013 season. After a top-10 finish, though, can fantasy owners expect a repeat performance? The quick answer is not exactly. Brandon Marshall continues to be a target monster as long as Jay Cutler remains under center, which means that on most afternoons, Jeffrey is at best the No. 2 option in the passing game. While it’s true that the target, yardage and touchdown numbers for Jeffrey were very similar no matter if Cutler or McCown were under center, Jeffrey was the recipient of a number of miraculous catches and jump balls. These are all a testament to his amazing skills, but they are also similarly hard to duplicate. As defenses focus more attention on Jeffrey, his yardage totals will drop, as more frequent safety help over the top comes his way. As a young player he still lacks the refinement in his route tree to be a consistent short and intermediate target, but his yards-after-catch skills – 15th among wide receivers – means the drop-off might not be as severe as it could be. Feel comfortable drafting Jeffrey as a low-end WR1 and ecstatic if he is your WR2, as he has the skillset, scheme and gunslinger quarterback to be a high-end receiver for years to come.
WR Marquess Wilson
(2013 WR Rank—N/A)
A fantasy no name in 2013, Wilson barely registered on the stat sheet as he finished the season with two catches and 13 yards. Don’t be shocked if he surpasses those numbers in the first half of the opener against the Bills. Thanks to the emergence of teammate Alshon Jeffrey (similar frame and skillset) and release of Cutler-favorite Earl Bennett, fantasy owners have noticed Wilson this preseason. Expected to win the WR3 job, Wilson remains someone to keep an eye on, if not during your draft, then during the season as a waiver pickup. Should an injury befall Brandon Marshall or Jeffrey, the towering former seventh-round pick could have the opportunity to make a prepared fantasy owner very happy.
TE Martellus Bennett
(2013 TE Rank—#10, 6.6 FPts/G)
Despite several stops in his NFL career, highly-touted TE Martellus Bennett has never become an explosive, field-stretching pass receiver like some thought he would be when the Cowboys made him a second-round pick in 2008. He has become is a solid, reliable target for Chicago Bears quarterbacks, though. Bennett is the ideal TE for the owner with a solid all-around roster. He finished eighth or ninth among all tight ends in targets, catches and yards last season, making him at best, a low-end TE1 option. You won’t mind starting Bennett if you have to or sitting him for a gamble, so he is a great option for owners looking for some decent production while they sit and wait on a young, high-upside TE2s like Eric Ebron, Zach Ertz or Ladarius Green.
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