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Fantasy Football Strategy, Advice, and Commentary |
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 By: Dave Stringer — September 15, 2010 @ 11:25 am
 The Green Bay Packers suffered a major blow in their Week 1 win over the Eagles in Philadelphia. The team has announced that starting running back Ryan Grant will miss the remainder of the season after injuring his right ankle.
Grant’s loss is a huge blow to a Packers team with Super Bowl aspirations in 2010. He is one of the few workhorse running backs in the league and has carried the bulk of the load at the position since taking over as the team’s starter at the midpoint of the 2007 season.
A powerful runner with enough speed to break long runs, Grant has been a perfect fit in Green Bay. Since taking over as the lead back, he has rushed for 3,430 yards and 23 touchdowns in 42 games.
With Grant out, the Packers will turn to Brandon Jackson. Taken in the second round of the 2006 draft, Jackson has not lived up to expectations in Green Bay.
In his first three years with the Packers, Jackson has just 626 rushing yards. He’s mainly fulfilled the pass catching role out of the backfield for most of his career but has failed to excel in that capacity, retaining his roster spot mostly because of his pass blocking ability, which allows the team to put either four wide receivers or three wide receivers and a tight end in patterns on passing downs.
The team has signed Dimitri Nance, an undrafted rookie free agent, from the Falcons practice squad. James Starks, picked in the sixth round of this year’s draft, is on the physically unable to perform list and will mist at least the first six weeks of the season.
Fantasy Impact
After underperforming for his entire career, Jackson finally gets an opportunity to step into the lead back role in Green Bay. However, the best indicator of future performance is past performance so expectations for Jackson should be held in check.
The Packers coaches have chosen to use Jackson less as his career has gone on. His touches have decreased every year he has been in the league, from 91 to 75 to 58.
It’s safe to assume that trend would have continued in 2010 had Grant not went down.
On the plus side, with no proven player currently behind him on the depth chart, Jackson figures to receive the majority of touches out of the backfield. He should be considered a RB3 with upside in most leagues and a decent flex option in leagues that employ the position.
However, acquiring him is not without risk. Look for Green Bay to scour the free agent market for a veteran running back or perhaps acquire one via a trade. Ahman Green, who split time with Jackson as the team’s top backup for the last half of 2009, is an obvious candidate to be re-signed. Buffalo Bills running Marshawn Lynch, rumoured to be available in a trade ever since the team selected C.J. Spiller in the first round of this year’s draft, is a similar player to Grant and would make sense in Green Bay.
If a veteran isn’t added to the mix, look for either Nance or Starks to get an opportunity at some point in 2010 with Starks likely the better option. The rookie from the University of Buffalo is a skilled but injury-prone player who has the talent to play in the league provided he can stay healthy.
By: Dave Stringer — September 14, 2010 @ 5:33 pm
QUARTERBACKS
Moving Up
Matt Hasselbeck, Seahawks
While I’m certainly not sold, Hasselbeck and his cast of questionable wide receivers came through in Week 1 against a 49ers defense that came out inexplicably flat. Hasselbeck went 18 of 23 for 170 yards and two touchdowns and chipped in a rushing touchdown to boot (note that it’s a sad commentary on your running backs when you call a quarterback sneak with a 34-year old, injury-prone QB with a history of back problems).
Jay Cutler, Bears
The whispers that Cutler could be a decent fantasy starter will grow into a chorus after his Week 1 performance against the leaky Lions defense. Cutler started shaky but finished with 372 passing yards and a pair of touchdowns with an interception. Cutler made some questionable decisions and the offensive line needs to improve however, if Cutler gets protection, the Bears passing game should be dynamic.
Moving Down
Trent Edwards, Bills
Edwards looked good in the preseason, shedding his propensity to check down while opening up the Bills offense with solid production in the passing game. The question was whether he would continue to do so once the regular season began. Well, the lights came on and he was in full Captain Checkdown mode, going 18 for 34 for a paltry 139 yards and a touchdown. With the game winding down and the Bills needing big chunks of yardage, he checked down on four consecutive passes to end the game, proving that some people never change.
Matt Schaub, Texans
You generally shouldn’t read too much into the opening week of the season but the way Arian Foster ran against the Colts, it seems abundantly clear that the Texans will throw far less frequently than they did in 2009, when Schaub finished with a league-leading, 4,770 passing yards. He’s clearly not a player that should be unloaded but the odds of him finishing as a top five fantasy quarterback look a lot less likely after watching Foster’s performance.
RUNNING BACKS
Moving Up
Arian Foster, Texans
What is there to say? The top fantasy performer of the week and if you had him in your lineup, you almost certainly would have won with a 41 point outing courtesy of a Texans’ record 231 rushing yards and three touchdowns. Foster looked like the real deal, repeatedly shredding the Colts suspect run defense. Move him up to RB1 status and try to grab him if his owner isn’t a believer.
Matt Forte, Bears
Anybody who gambled that Forte would get the lions share of the touches over Chester Taylor was rewarded in Week 1. Forte shredded the Lions defense, catching seven passes for 151 yards and two touchdowns to go along with 50 rushing yards on 17 carries. Granted, it was the Lions but Forte looks like a solid play against everything except the league’s top defenses.
Darren McFadden, Raiders
With Michael Bush and the Raiders fell behind early, McFadden had his most productive day since his second game as a pro, finishing with 95 rushing yards and 55 receiving yards and one touchdown against the Titans. Although he isn’t likely to get the 24 touches he had in Week 1 when Bush returns, he did enough to solidify his status as a decent flex option and RB3 with upside in leagues that don’t utilize the flex spot.
Peyton Hillis, Browns
Hillis moved up to the top backup spot after second round pick Montario Hardesty’s season ending injury. However, the expectation was that he would spell Jerome Harrison and likely get the short yardage work. Instead, he split time with Harrison and finished with more touches (13 to 10). He finished with 41 yards and a touchdown on nine carries and four receptions for 24 yards.
Brandon Jackson, Packers
It’s tough to say that Jackson will excel as the lead running back in the Packers explosive offense but we’re about to find out as Ryan Grant is out for the year with an ankle injury. Jackson played reasonably well against the Eagles in Week 1, finishing with 63 yards on 18 carries and 12 receiving yards. The Packers added Falcons’ practice squader Dimitri Nance to the fold on Tuesday, although they will hope to get rookie James Starks back off the PUP list sometime after Week 6.
Moving Down
C.J. Spiller, Bills
Spiller couldn’t get anything going Sunday and finished with 14 total yards. The Bills offensive line couldn’t block the Dolphins front seven – a group that can hardly be considered one of the top run defending units in the league. Trent Edwards looked horrible and the Bills finished with 166 total yards of offense. Spiller is good but he can’t carry an entire offense this devoid of talent.
Justin Forsett, Seahawks
So much for Forsett winning the starting job. If Week 1 was any indication, it’s a full on running back by committee in Seattle with Forsett getting seven carries to eight for Julius Jones and six for Leon Washington. Provided that remains the status quo, none of the Seahawks running backs has any fantasy value. Move Forsett to your bench until the situation changes.
Donald Brown, Colts
No carries, one reception and apparently no fantasy value unless Joseph Addai gets hurt.
Kareem Huggins, Buccaneers
No carries, no receptions and apparently no fantasy value unless Cadillac Williams gets hurt.
WIDE RECEIVERS
Moving Up
Mark Clayton, Rams
Clayton was rookie quarterback Sam Bradford’s top target in week 1 against the Cardinals and appears to be the team’s number one wide receiver moving forward. While, Laurent Robinson was ignored because the Rams were avoiding Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, Clayton was targeted 16 times, catching ten passes for 119 yards. He also dropped a pass where he could have split the safeties and scored a touchdown.
Steve Breaston, Cardinals
While Larry Fitzgerald and Derek Anderson looked completely out of sync, Breaston looked like he had played with Anderson for years. Breaston caught all seven of the passes thrown his way, finishing with 132 yards. Much of it came against inexperienced cornerback Bradley Fletcher but Breaston looked dynamic and may end up duplicating Anquan Boldin’s production by the end of the season.
Legedu Naanee, Chargers
Nice game against the Chiefs in Week 1 with five receptions for 110 yards and a touchdown. He clearly outplayed Malcom Floyd so let the debate begin on exactly who is the Chargers top fantasy wide receiver…?
Devin Aromashodu, Bears
Aromashodu was listed as a backup entering the season but he emerged as Jay Cutler’s go-to-guy in Week 1. He was targeted 10 times, catching five passes for 71 yards and dropping a pass in the end zone. While Devin Hester and Johny Knox were tabbed as the Bears wide receivers most likely to breakout under new offensive coordinator Mike Martz’s offense, after Week 1, it looks like Aromasho is the player to own of the Bears receivers.
Eddie Royal, Broncos
With head coach Josh McDaniels stating that he likes to spread the receiving workload around, the Broncos may rely on a different receiver in any given week. However, Royal started out the season on fire, catching eight passes for 98 yards. Chalk him up as the Broncos top wide receiver to own… at least for now.
Moving Down
Larry Fitzgerald, Cardinals
Fitzgerald says he’s at 70% and he had absolutely no chemistry with starting quarterback Derek Anderson in Week 1 against the Rams. Despite being targeted 15 times, Fitzgerald caught three passes for 43 yards. He scored a touchdown but that came on a play where the Rams got no pressure on Anderson, allowing Fitzgerald to get completely open in the corner of the end zone.
Michael Crabtree, 49ers
I guess preseason does matter. Crabtree and quarterback Alex Smith weren’t on the same page with Crabtree causing one interception and seemingly not running the proper pattern on more than one occasion. Add it all up and the end result is two catches for 12 yards despite a healthy 8 targets. Not exactly a good start to the breakout season that most were predicting. He also drew the ire of head coach Mike Singletary after a lacklustre effort to make a tackle after an interception. Vernon Davis had a breakout campaign after getting lit up by Singletary…unfortunately that breakout occurred the following year.
Devin Hester and Johnny Knox, Bears
See Devin Aromashodu above. The lines – Hester, one reception on one target for 17 yards; Knox, three receptions seven targets for 52 yards.
TIGHT ENDS
Moving Up
Marcedes Lewis, Jaguars
Lewis has always had decent talent but his fantasy value heading into the season was low based on his lack of touchdowns (never more than two in any season) and the emergence of Zach Miller as a receiving threat. However, he scored touchdowns on both of his receptions in Week 1 against the Broncos. Has he used up his touchdown allotment for this year or is he on his way to a decent fantasy season? Might be worth a look if you’re in the market for a backup on your roster.
Moving Down
Owen Daniels, Texans
No shocker here since head coach Gary Kubiak said Daniels would be limited to 20-25 plays in Week 1 against the Colts. That number seemed about right and the Texans only passed it 17 times with running back Arian Foster dominating the Colts on the ground. While that trend won’t repeat itself every week, the Texans clearly are a much-improved team running the ball with Foster. Couple that with Daniels questionable health, and you’ve got a risky fantasy starter for the early part of 2010.
By: Dave Stringer — September 9, 2010 @ 10:00 am
 Losing TDs as we speak. 1. The Steelers announced that Isaac Redman has won the role as the team’s short-yardage back. This has implications for both starter Rashard Mendenhall and rookie sixth-round pick Jonathan Dwyer. Mendenhall’s fantasy value is clearly negatively impacted, as he will likely lose four to six touchdowns with Redman getting the goal-line carries. As for Dwyer, he will not even dress on game day because the Steelers will use Mewelde Moore as their third-down back.
2. Don’t read too much into Derrick Ward signing with the Texans. With Steve Slaton nursing a toe injury, Ward was signed as insurance for the first couple of weeks of the season in case of an injury to starter Arian Foster. As a four-year veteran, Ward’s yearly salary is guaranteed if he is on the roster on opening day, so while he may be in Houston for the year, he’s unlikely to have much fantasy appeal.
3. Keeping with the Texans, it appears that Jacoby Jones has done enough in the preseason to warrant significant playing time. There are even rumblings that he may have unseated Kevin Walter in the starting lineup. Jones is clearly the more explosive of the two players, and even if he doesn’t start, Jones is going to eat into Walters’ playing time considerably.
4. Entering the preseason, it was expected that Pierre Garcon, Austin Collie, and Anthony Gonzalez would battle it out for the two starting positions at wide receiver opposite Reggie Wayne. However, Gonzalez voiced his frustration at how he was used during the preseason. Based on the tone of his comments, it appears that for the Colts base offense in Week 1, Garcon will line up outside with Collie in the slot.
5. Keep your Week 1 expectations for Broncos running back Knowshon Moreno realistic. On opening day against the Jaguars, the Broncos may start three offensive lineman who have yet to take an NFL snap, and Moreno is apparently not fully recovered from the hamstring injury that kept him out for part of training camp.
6. Similarly, Houston head coach Gary Kubiak announced that tight end Owen Daniels would be limited to 15-20 snaps in Week 1 against Indianapolis. With the Texans high-powered offense, that may be enough snaps for Daniels to register decent fantasy production. However, if you have another quality option at tight end, Daniels should be on your bench.
7 Remarkably, the Rams will enter the season with veteran journeyman Kenneth Darby and undrafted rookie free agent Keith Toston backing up Steven Jackson at running back. Despite frequently stating that they wanted to get Jackson a quality backup to reduce the wear and tear on their franchise player, the Rams have apparently failed to do so. In 2010 Jackson is likely to once again be the league’s most overworked running back, which is good for his fantasy prospects but not so good for his career longevity.
8. Entering training camp, the consensus was that the Bengals would again use a heavily run-based offense in 2010. However, with rookie third-round pick Jordan Shipley exceeding expectations as a slot receiver and the team impressed with the play of tight end Jermaine Gresham (their first-round pick) as well as free agent pickup Terrell Owens, there are rumblings in Cincinnati that the team will throw more this year than previously expected. If so, that bodes well for the fantasy prospects of Carson Palmer. Palmer has thrown for 300 yards just once over his last 21 games, so expectations should be tempered—but there may be a light at the end of the tunnel for the Bengals passing attack.
9. You have to love the way Broncos head coach Josh McDaniels has either blown or thrown away draft picks since becoming the team’s head coach a year and a half ago. This week, he traded seldom-used cornerback Alphonso Smith to the Lions for tight end Dan Gronkowski, who has one career reception. At the 2009 rookie draft, McDaniels traded the Broncos’ 2010 first round pick to San Francisco for the opportunity to take Smith with the fifth pick in the second round. The 49ers subsequently traded the pick to the Eagles, who used it to select defensive end Brandon Graham. End result: the Broncos end up with a third string tight end instead of a potential star pass rusher.
10. While we’re with McDaniels, let’s recap the team’s quarterback situation. The Broncos traded for Brady Quinn, giving up fullback/running back Peyton Hillis, a 2010 sixth round pick, and a conditional pick in 2012. At the 2010 draft, they traded second-round (43rd overall), third-round (70th overall), and fourth-round (114th overall) picks to select project Tim Tebow with the 25th pick in the first round. Subsequently, they signed incumbent starter Kyle Orton to a long term contract extension. To sum it all up, they have given up a versatile back in Hillis plus second-, third-, fourth-, and sixth-round picks, as well as a conditional pick, all while tying themselves to two large contracts—and their quarterback play in 2010 will almost certainly rank in the bottom third of the league.
11. The Seahawks made it official this week, announcing that Justin Forsett will be the team’s starting running back on opening day. With Julius Jones forced to take a substantial pay cut in order to remain on the roster, Leon Washington is clearly Forsett’s backup. While Forsett performed well in 2009 when given the opportunity, it remains to be seen whether he can hold up for an entire season, making Washington an intriguing option. Since the Seahawks depth chart was a question mark for much of the preseason, Washington is likely available in a good number of leagues and is worth grabbing if that’s the case in your league.
12. There is lots of excitement over another waiver wire candidate, new Cardinals starting quarterback Derek Anderson. While Anderson was once a Pro Bowl–level performer, he has looked dreadful over his last two years in Cleveland, completing 48% of his passes despite playing in one of the league’s most conservative offenses. The Cardinals like to take more shots down the field, and Anderson’s poor accuracy is likely to be exposed quickly in Arizona. It wouldn’t be a surprise if Max Hall is starting before the end of 2010.
13. The Redskins are currently listing Joey Galloway as the team’s starting receiver opposite Santana Moss. If that holds up, look for quarterback Donovan McNabb to frequently target Moss—as well as tight ends Chris Cooley and Fred Davis—in the passing game. With Galloway clearly over the hill and running backs Clinton Portis and Larry Johnson not quality receivers out of the backfield, Moss, Cooley, and Davis figure to get the bulk of the work in the passing game.
By: Dave Stringer — September 8, 2010 @ 6:12 am
With many leagues drafting in early or mid-August and plenty of player movement since then, many fantasy football leagues allow waiver wire pickups prior to week one of the regular season.
Since mid-August, the major NFL headlines have focused on Brett Favre’s announcement that he will play in 2010 (surprise, surprise), the ascension of Arian Foster to starting running back of the Texans, the shocking release of T.J. Houshmandzadeh, the Bucs decision to give up on Derrick Ward and a trade sprinkled in for good measure (Mark
Clayton to the Rams).
Add it all up and there are plenty of intriguing options on the waiver wire in most leagues prior to week one.
– With Ward getting chopped, Huggins shot up fantasy football draft boards on the assumption he would take over as the team’s top backup behind Cadillac Williams. Huggins is a small, shifty player with excellent speed but he may be best suited to third down duties.
It is debatable whether the Bucs would turn to Huggins or Earnest Graham in the event of a Williams’ injury. If Huggins won the nod over Graham, he would be a tempting option but the recent signing of LeGarrette Blount tempers my enthusiasm a wee bit. Cadillac does have an extensive injury history, although he did play 16 games in 2009.
Fantasy Outlook: Handcuff to Williams and worth owning in all leagues except small roster, redraft formats.
– The rookie fourth round pick has won a spot in the starting line-up with an impressive preseason and only tight end Kellen Winslow figures to get more targets early in the season. Williams has good size and speed and has already established himself as the Bucs top wide receiver.
The Bucs passing game was a mess in 2009 but quarterback Josh Freeman figures to be much improved in 2010. The Bucs are likely to be playing from behind often so Williams will be targeted plenty this year, provided he can hold off second round pick Arrelious Benn.
Fantasy Outlook: I’m sold, especially in dynasty leagues. Grab Williams in all formats but don’t draft him as a fantasy starter.
– Just traded to the Rams, Clayton goes from being a complete non-factor in Baltimore to a potential number one wide receiver in St. Louis. He possesses excellent speed but has been inconsistent, which can be partially attributed to his use almost exclusively as a deep threat.
Incumbent top wide receiver Laurent Robinson has missed plenty of time with injuries during his three years in the league and DannyAmendola is best suited to playing out of the slot.
Fantasy Outlook: Starting on the outside by week two or three with the potential to be Sam Bradford’s top target shortly thereafter. The Rams offense is ugly but they figure to be behind early and often so Clayton should see plenty of targets in 2010. Grab him in larger leagues as a WR5.
– Jones is a speedy player who has struggled at times with consistency and drops. However, with 12 receptions for 131 yards and a touchdown in the first three preseason games, Jones has outplayed Kevin Walter and likely earned a spot in the starting lineup.
With the Texans expected to boast one of the league’s most explosive passing attacks in 2010, Jones is an attractive option and should be considered a potential breakout player.
Fantasy Outlook: Jones is worth owning in all formats. His stock will rise after Week One so grab him now if you can.
– That’s right – your eyes aren’t deceiving you. There are two Mike Williamses on the list and yes, the second one is the former Detroit Lions first-round bust.
Now that you’ve picked yourself up off the ground, consider this. The Seahawks cast of wide receivers features a rookie caught stealing donuts (Golden Tate), a 2009 third-round pick who did nothing as a rookie (Deon Butler), a fifth-year player with 16 career receptions (Ben Obamanu) and a veteran on his last legs who has averaged 41 receptions per year over the last three years (Deion Branch). Plus, the Seahawks chopped T.J. Houshmandzadeh to create a spot in the starting lineup for Williams.
Williams was the Seahawks best receiver in the preseason and the Seahawks don’t figure to be very good so expect the pass-run ratio to be weighted in Williams’ favor.
Fantasy Outlook: Hey, I’m not sold on him and you shouldn’t be either. However, at the moment, he ranks as the Seahawks top wide receiver so he figures to get plenty of opportunities unless he proves unable to take advantage of them. Grab him in larger leagues.
– Rookie running back Montario Hardesty will miss the entire 2010 season with a torn ACL and the Browns dropped 2009 backup Chris Jennings. Hillis will compete with 2009 sixth-round round pick James Davis for carries behind Jerome Harrison.
Hillis received extensive playing time for the Broncos in 2008, gaining 480 total yards and six touchdowns in five games. With the selection of Hardesty in the second round and the trade for Hillis, the Browns clearly are not sold on Harrison.
Fantasy Outlook: Hillis will be dressed on game day due to his ability to play fullback, running back and contribute on special teams. Look for him to get short-yardage work and earn the backup spot over Davis.
Other Players to Consider
– Back in early August, it appeared Vincent Jackson would come to his senses and get a deal done with the Chargers or the team would acquire a solid veteran to play alongside Malcolm Floyd. Josh Reed (since released) and Patrick Crayton were the only additions so Naanee will start on opening day in one of the league’s high-powered offenses. Nice upside on your bench.
– Excellent preseason and, continuing the theme, the Rams will need to throw it plenty in 2010. Might be a decent fantasy backup during his rookie season.
– Bills cut 2008 second round pick James Hardy and Chad Jackson leaving Johnson fighting for targets with Roscoe Parrish and two undrafted rookie free agents. Plus, at tight end, Shawn Nelson is hurt and Derek Schoumann was released leaving recently signed David Martin the team’s best receiving option at the position. Johnson could be a surprise in 2010.
– Bengals management and quarterback Carson Palmer have raved about Shipley’s play in the preseason. He has locked up the slot receiver role and could be a decent option in large leagues that use the flex position.
– The Dolphins shipped Greg Camarillo to the Vikings leaving Hartline fighting for Brandon Marshall’s leftovers with Davone Bess and a pair of undrafted rookie free agents. Will go overlooked in most redraft leagues but he shouldn’t.
By: Dave Stringer — @ 4:55 am
 The Baltimore Ravens continued their efforts to rebuild their talent base at wide receiver, signing Seattle Seahawks castoff T.J. Houshmandzadeh to a one-year contract.
The signing comes on the heels of the offseason trade for Anquan Boldin and the free agent signing of Donte Stallworth. With Mark Clayton subsequently being dealt to the St. Louis Rams, the Ravens have turned over half of their depth chart at wide receiver since the end of the 2009 season.
Reports indicate the 32-year old Houshmandzadeh will sign a one-year contract for the veteran minimum.
Despite signing a lucrative free agent contract with Seattle during the 2009 offseason, Houshmandzadeh was let go by new head coach Pete Carroll despite the team’s lack of proven players at the position. He had 79 receptions for 911 yards and three touchdowns in his only season in Seattle.
With Stallworth expected to be out for the first five or six weeks of the regular season with a broken foot, Houshmandzadeh provides the Ravens with veteran insurance behind Boldin and Derrick Mason. The Ravens also have third-year player Marcus Smith and rookie fifth-round pick David Reed at the position.
Known more for his route running ability, good hands and willingness to go over the middle, Houshmandzadeh is a possession receiver at this point of his career. He has averaged just 10.5 yards per reception over the last three years.
Fantasy Impact
Houshmandzadeh’s prospects in Baltimore are clearly less favorable than being the number one receiver in Seattle were he shaped up as a WR3 in most formats. But in Baltimore, he is waiver wire fodder in all leagues other than extremely deep leagues that utilize the flex position. His signing has more fantasy implications for Baltimore’s other offensive players than for Houshmandzadeh himself.
Quarterback Joe Flacco, a high quality fantasy backup with upside prior to the signing, should move up draft boards a couple of positions with Housh on board. He gains an excellent option on third downs and should help the Ravens keep drives alive. Houshmandzadeh is also an excellent receiver in the red zone, although the Ravens favor running the ball when inside the 20-yard line. Flacco moves up to borderline fantasy starter.
Boldin and Mason should be dropped a few notches at wide receiver. In effect, Boldin, Mason and Houshmandzadeh are all very similar receivers with each player better at running short and intermediate routes at this point in their careers.
Boldin is clearly entrenched as the Ravens top player at the position so his fantasy outlook isn’t impacted as much as Mason’s. Mason figures to come off the field when the Ravens want to target Houshmandzadeh and he may see far fewer targets in the red zone.
Boldin and Houshmandzadeh are excellent red zone receivers, with Boldin using his strength and cutting ability to find the end zone and Houshmandzadeh relying on his height on fades and size on quick slants.
Therefore, the biggest fantasy loser with the Houshmandzadeh signing is Derrick Mason.
By: Dave Stringer — September 7, 2010 @ 11:43 pm
 Looking to bolster a wide receiver depth chart lacking proven playmakers and veteran experience, the St. Louis Rams have acquired Mark Clayton from the Baltimore Ravens. ESPN reports the Rams gave up a 2011 sixth-round draft pick in exchange for Clayton and the Ravens seventh-round pick in 2011.
Clayton became expendable when the Ravens signed former Seahawk and Bengal receiver T.J. Houshmandzadeh to a one-year contract over the weekend.
The acquisition of Clayton replenishes the talent base at wide receiver for the Rams and provides the team with a solid replacement for Donnie Avery, who suffered a torn ACL and is out for the year. Clayton possesses excellent speed and is a talented player whose production has yet to match his abilities.
In St. Louis, Clayton figures to quickly ascend up the depth chart and should be amongst the team’s top three receivers as soon as he learns the playbook. He will compete for playing time with Laurent Robinson, Danny Amendola and Brandon Gibson. The Rams also have rookie fourth-round pick Mardy Gilyard, Keenan Burton and Dominique Curry on the roster.
While the Rams previously stated that Amendola would replace Avery in the starting line-up, he is better suited to the slot where he can utilize his quickness. Gibson had a disappointing preseason, largely the result of a hamstring injury that caused him to miss significant time.
Clayton enjoyed a breakout season in 2006, catching 67 passes for 939 yards and five touchdowns. However, he failed to build on that season and his reception totals dropped in each of the last three years, from 48 to 41 to 34 in 2009.
Fantasy Outlook
In Baltimore, Clayton was cast as a deep threat with Derrick Mason running short and intermediate routes. However, in the Rams version of the west coast offense, Clayton will be used on more short and intermediate routes and his reception totals should increase.
Look for Clayton to earn the starting spot opposite Robinson given the Rams preference to have Amendola play out of the slot and the team’s other options at the position.
Gilyard struggled in the preseason and is also better suited to the slot. Gibson and Burton are best suited to playing outside but neither player has the pedigree or playmaking ability that Clayton possesses.
While it’s hard to get excited about a wide receiver coming to a team that struggled as bad on offense as the Rams did in 2010 and who will be starting a rookie quarterback, Clayton’s fantasy prospects shouldn’t be dismissed.
He has an opportunity to earn significant playing time and the Rams figure to be behind early and often so Clayton will earn garbage time fantasy points in 2010. His fantasy outlook was persona non grata in Baltimore but in St. Louis, he has the potential to be a solid backup for your fantasy squad with decent upside.
By: Mike MacGregor — September 5, 2010 @ 9:10 am
It might seem excessive to argue about fantasy backup quarterbacks, especially when neither side is touting a player as “must have.” Then again, this is the thick of fantasy football draft season. What better time is there to go for excess. RapidDraft.com’s Matt Schauf went to the panel of Mikes at FFToday.com about the site’s low ranking for Matt Moore and found Mike MacGregor willing to back it up.
Schauf: Hey Mike, quick question: I’m going through your site’s QB rankings right now and am just wondering if you remember that the Carolina Panthers are still in the league? Oh, wait, just found Matt Moore buried way down at 28th … beyond Mark Sanchez, Matt Leinart (guess that’s about to change), Jason Campbell, Kyle Orton, Josh Freeman and I guess just about everyone else. I’m ready to state my case for Moore once again, but first let me ask: Did he used to steal Mike Krueger’s lunch money in school?
MacGregor: Mike Krueger always seemed like more of a brown-bag lunch guy to me instead of buying his lunch at the cafeteria. As far as I know he has no personal vendetta against Matt Moore, but we just think he is a subpar QB option, fantasy and otherwise. In terms of receiving options Moore has Steve Smith and … and … and not much. The Panthers have a potentially great running game and a decent enough defense. Even if Moore had more than one above average receiver, there is little need or opportunity for him to pass enough to accumulate worthwhile passing stats. If a game manager is what you are looking for in a fantasy QB, by all means, Moore is your man.
Schauf: Smith alone gives Moore more (smooth sentence construction) at receiver than at least Campbell, Orton and Freeman among those guys I mentioned above, and he has seemed to be plenty for Moore to this point. Between two separate NFL seasons (last year and 2007), Moore has started eight games and produced 1,554 yards, 11 touchdowns and just three interceptions in only 205 pass attempts. Without adjusting the number of passes up (because every team but the Jets attempted well more than the 410 that would project to over 16 games), the numbers come out to 3,108 yards, 22 touchdowns and six picks over a full season.
Now, I’m not saying we can simply take that projection and put it forth as the expectation for Moore’s first full season of starting, but it does tell us plenty. It tells us that Moore performed WAY better than the erratic veteran he finally replaced (and that began late in 2007, when Moore was an undrafted rookie). It tells us that he has been more protective of the ball than can reasonably be expected of any young quarterback. The next time he throws two interceptions in an NFL game will be the first. We’re talking about fantasy backups here, and in that spot, I’m looking for a guy who can give me a good game while also not presenting the risk that he’ll lose me the week with three picks. That’s Matt Moore.
MacGregor: So you want a QB afraid to take chances and throw it down the field more than once in a blue moon? I thought you were more of a risk taker than that. Personally I’d rather a QB who is going to attempt closer to 30 passes a game (i.e. Campbell, Orton, Freeman) than less than 20 (Moore). Steve Smith isn’t that much better he can help Moore put up stats equivalent to these other guys on ten fewer pass attempts on average.
And about the superior receiving talent at Moore’s disposal versus the law firm of Campbell, Orton and Freeman, I disagree with that. It really is Steve Smith and nothing on the Panthers depth chart. The jury is out on rookie Brandon LaFell. The Raiders and Broncos at least offer up decent receiving options for the QB, between McFadden, Miller, Murphy, Moreno, Buckhalter, Gaffney and Royal. I’ll admit, the Bucs receivers short of Winslow and Caddy leave a lot to be desired, but Freeman makes up for it making plays with his legs. Matt Moore? Moore had twelve rushing attempts last year for minus three yards. Yep, he’s a statue back there.
Schauf: If it’s more downfield action you need, then might I interest you in a quarterback who finished 2009 with more yards per attempt than Kurt Warner, Joe Flacco and the three passers we both just mentioned, as well as at least a full yard more per attempt than Jay Cutler, Carson Palmer and Matt Ryan? Perhaps you’d prefer the guy who produced six pass plays of 40 yards or more, which tied or beat half of the 32 qualified quarterbacks in the league last year, despite not qualifying himself? (“Qualifying” means having thrown at least one pass in at least 14 games, the league standard to qualify for passer-rating rankings.)
I can’t argue that Carolina will throw a whole lot. It won’t. And I won’t talk up Moore’s rushing. I will, however, point out that of quarterbacks 13-24 in total points last year (backups in 12-team leagues), six failed to score a rushing touchdown. Running certainly helps, but I won’t overrate it. What helps more is touchdown throws, and my simple projection for Moore based on previous starts comes to 22 of those over a full season in just 410 pass attempts. That would’ve tied him for 13th in the league last year, and 410 attempts is even fewer than the Panthers tried while finishing last in the league in that category in 2008. All told, even if you don’t expect 22 touchdowns, it seems pretty clear that level is at least realistic.
Now, in RapidDraft scoring, we have no negative points. So, interceptions don’t matter. Of course, in leagues where they do, the aforementioned ball safety would have to make one more comfortable with inserting Moore for a week here and there.
MacGregor: My point on the rushing, or Moore’s lack of rushing, was a counterpoint in reference to you comparing Moore favorably to Josh Freeman.
Okay, so what we’ve concluded here is that Moore doesn’t throw a lot of passes. He will chuck it down field you say, or at least did in a small sample size of games in which defenses had little background from which to game plan for this guy, and teams likely took the Panthers for granted since they were so dismal and out of the playoff race thanks to their early season swoon. He has one legitimate receiving threat.
Surprisingly, you haven’t even countered that the RB pairing of Jonathan Stewart and DeAngelo Williams are decent pass catchers, to which I would say they are okay. About average. Can we expect 500 yards combined from these guys? If I generously (very generously) give Steve Smith his career best 1,500, Moore needs to carve out another 1,000 yards amongst a rookie and some very mediocre receiving talent just to get to a mundane 3,000 yards. I see no upside with this guy and a struggle to be even a low-end backup (top-24 QB).
You know, I think you should draft Moore this season. Enjoy looking for a better option than Moore off waivers every week as you’ll be constantly trying to replace him.
Schauf: Well, I’m certainly not touting Moore as the best backup option on the market but do think he makes immediate sense for owners of Joe Flacco, Jay Cutler and Eli Manning. Moore faces St. Louis when those three starters are on bye. Both matchups with New Orleans and Tampa could prove favorable as well, and overall, I think there’s some spot starter potential.
I’ve gone on long enough about a mid-level backup, though, so we’ll just have to see how he handles a fuller sample size.
Matt Schauf is the senior football writer for RapidDraft.com. Mike MacGregor is the creator of FF Today’s Cheatsheet Compiler and Draft Buddy software. Compete with them and nine other sets of Fantasy Pros in free fantasy football at RapidDraft.com for a guaranteed $100,000 grand prize.
By: Mike MacGregor — August 31, 2010 @ 10:13 am
A few things have changed in the high-stakes industry in recent years. First, there is more competition. It used to be that high-stakes fantasy football meant the World Championship of Fantasy Football (WCFF). The first ever WCFF event was held at the MGM Grand in Las Vegas in 2002.
Given the early success of WCFF, a number of other companies opened up shop (and have since closed in some cases), trying to earn their piece of the then-growing high-stakes fantasy football pie. From the increased competition came more options not only between contest providers, but also in terms of different contest options from the same operator. This is the second big change.
Now there are some moderate-stakes contest options in the neighborhood of $300 instead of the typical main event fees north of $1,200. For those of us on a budget—or with a wife who happens to be an accountant (who’s with me?) —a few hundred dollars is easier to justify.
I’m sure some veteran high-stakes players may take issue with me lumping the $300 entry fee contests under the high-stakes umbrella, but I’m going to do it anyway. The contests I’m looking at are structured as traditional fantasy football leagues and have a five- or six-figure grand prize, which fits the definition of high-stakes for me. Plus, a blog series on high-stakes fantasy football just sounds better than one on moderate-stakes.
The third big change in recent years is, of course, due to technology. There are now online options for drafting in many of these contests. Yes, they still have the big city venues, too, which are great fun but require a bigger budget and more time commitment to participate in. At this point, an online draft is a better fit for me.
Now I just need to figure out which contest or contests I am going to join. I currently have four options I’m looking at. There are a lot of things to consider, including the cost and prize payouts, how the game is structured, whether the draft dates and times fit my schedule, the professionalism and customer service of the contest provider, and the security of the prize pool.
That list is not in any particular order, and by no means is it meant to be exhaustive. Some items are going to be more important to some people than others, of course. Some points, if they aren’t sufficiently met, will completely eliminate a contest from consideration. For example, if a contest does not appear to be professionally run, and you have concerns about the security of the prize pool, then the rest of the stuff really does not matter.
Do not take the security of the prize pool for granted just because a contest has a fancy website. While I have no firsthand knowledge, there have been reports of a few contests in recent years failing to fully pay out to their prize winners. Can you imagine the once-in-a-lifetime experience of winning the grand prize in a big fantasy football contest, only to find out later you won’t be receiving the grand prize because the contest organizers spent the money and went out of business? I can only imagine, but I imagine that feeling would be downright awful.
I’m not trying to scare people off from legitimate businesses in this industry, but just be aware there is a history of problems with some contests. Do your due diligence as best you can, which isn’t always easy, and realize nothing is guaranteed. If you are willing to take the risk playing in these contests, fine. If you are too risk averse, recognize that up front, and take a pass.
As an aside, one source of research you should use to help investigate the history of a contest you are considering is the newly founded Fantasy Players Association, initiated by high-stakes player Scott Atkins. Check the blog and message board, or post a question, to try to get some answers before putting your hard-earned money at risk in a shady contest.
In terms of my decision, I’m going to give just a high-level overview of different options I’m considering, and the particular points about each that stick out and differentiate them from each other. The four options I’m looking at are:
- Footballguys Players Championship
- National Fantasy Football Championship Online Championship
- RosterDoc RotoBowl Tournament
- World Championship of Fantasy Football Super Satellite
Note that these are specific contests I’ve narrowed down to include in my search. Each of the above companies has alternative high-stakes offerings, including live drafts, so if the ones I’m outlining aren’t quite what you are looking for, check what else is available from each company.
Here is a comparison chart I put together for the four options listed above.
| High-Stakes Comparison |
| |
Footballguys PC |
NFFC Online Championship |
WCFF Super Satellite |
RotoBowl |
| Entry Fee |
$350 |
$350 |
$350 |
$259 |
| Contest Structure |
12-team
leagues |
12-team
leagues |
12-team
leagues |
12-team
leagues |
| |
Weeks 1-11 regular season; Weeks 12-13 head-to-head league playoff |
Weeks 1-13 regular season |
Weeks 1-11 regular season; Week 12 league championship game |
Weeks 1-11 regular season; Weeks 12-14 league playoffs |
| |
Weeks 14-16 total points championship and consolation round |
Weeks 14-16 total points championship and consolation round |
Weeks 13-16 head-to-head championship bracket playoffs and consolation bracket |
Weeks 15-16 total points championship and consolation round |
| |
Regular season team with best head-to-head record and team with highest points scored advance to the championship round, along with league playoff champ if different than the first two teams |
Regular season team with best head-to head record and team with highest points scored advance to the championship round,
along with wild-card teams that ranked in the top 10%
overall but didn’t otherwise qualify |
League champion plus top four scoring league championship game–losing teams advance to the championship bracket playoffs |
Top three teams in the league playoffs plus regular season
team with best head-to-head record, if not otherwise qualified, advance to the championship round |
Unique League
Rules |
Point-per-reception (PPR) scoring at 1 PPR for RB/WR and 1.5 PPR for TE |
Point-per-reception
(PPR) scoring at 1 PPR for WR/TE and 0.5 PPR for RB |
Point-per-reception
(PPR) scoring at 1 PPR for RB/WR/TE |
Point-per-reception
(PPR) scoring at 1 PPR for RB/WR/TE |
| |
Starting lineup: 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE plus dual-flex RB/WR/TE |
All-play format for Weeks 1 and 2, whereby the top six scoring teams each week earn a win, and the bottom six scoring teams each week earn a loss |
|
Starting lineup: 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE plus dual-flex RB/WR/TE |
| |
|
3rd Round Reversal (3RR) draft order |
|
Double-header
regular season schedule |
| |
|
Kentucky Derby Style (KDS) draft preference system |
|
|
League Management
Software |
RTSports |
Fanball |
RTSports |
RTSports |
| Prize Payouts |
$1,600 1st place
$350 2nd place league |
$1,400 1st place
$700 2nd place
$150 3rd place league |
$2,000 1st place
$350 2nd place league |
$900 1st place
$300 2nd place
$100 3rd place league
$100 credit 4th place |
| |
$50,000 1st place grand prize at 50 leagues (600 teams) |
$50,000 1st place grand prize |
$10,000 1st place grand prize |
$20,000
plus two tickets to “the Big Game” (a.k.a. Super Bowl) 1st place grand prize |
| |
Smaller cash prizes for finishing top 10 championship round, consolation round, regular season overall, and toilet bowl |
Smaller cash prizes for finishing top 10 championship round
and consolation round |
Smaller cash prizes for finishing top 3 championship bracket;
free entry in future Super Satellite league for finishing top 4 consolation bracket |
Smaller cash prizes for finishing top 8 championship round |
| |
Prize pool increases above 600 teams, mainly the championship round |
If the contest increases from 600 to 720 teams, the prize pool increases at the same payout rate |
League payout: 56.0%; overall payout: 90.4% at 144 teams or less* |
League payout: 41.8%; overall payout: 78.6% at estimated 360 teams* |
| |
League payout: 46.4%; overall payout: 84.1% at 600 teams or less, 79.0% at 900 teams* |
League payout: 53.6%; overall payout: 90.5% at 600 teams or less |
|
|
| Additional Points |
The prize pool is kept in an attorney escrow account, providing assurance of the security of the prize fund. |
|
|
|
|
* The above league payout percentages are estimated calculations. They exclude discounts for multiple contest entry purchases and future subscriptions, free entries, and credits where no cash alternative is provided.
So now I am left with the decision of how to allocate my funds. Every contest has different things I really like and some things I’m not as keen on. It isn’t an easy decision, and unfortunately (or fortunately, to make my decision easier), a lot of it will probably come down to the draft dates and times that best fit my schedule.
At this point I’m going to take some time to consider these options and check the available draft schedule for each contest. Next time I’ll make my decision on which league or leagues I’m going to sign up for.
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