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Doug Orth | Archive | Email |
Staff Writer


Top 225 Big Board, TFC High-Stakes League
Preseason Matchup Analysis
8/27/19
TFC | FPPC

Just like in every other fantasy football league, each week is important. Unlike most leagues, there is a $250,000 grand prize (up from $200,000 in previous seasons) waiting for the lucky owner who is able to mix regular-season success with postseason dominance in The Fantasy Championship. That means as important as matchups are in the first 12 weeks (four-team playoffs start in Week 13), they are exponentially more important in the run during "The Championship" (Weeks 14-16) since each week is added to the average point total for your team during the first 13 weeks.

The point to be made here is that December is critical not only for collecting the $1,000 owners get for winning their league, but also to make sure they stack 180- to 200-point weeks on top of one another over the final three weeks in order to keep themselves in the running for the big prize. In short, it is advantageous for owners to line up as many favorable matchups as possible for their best players.

For all of those unfamiliar with my Big Boards, allow me to explain the SSI concept as well as the color-coding system before we start:

SSI (Success Score Index) - A rankings metric that incorporates my fantasy-point projections and includes a weight to my matchup analysis score. In other words, it allows me to compare apples to oranges across positions.

Red – For lower-level players, a red matchup is the most difficult one a player can face. For a second- or third-tier player, drop your expectations for them at least one grade that week (i.e. from WR2 to WR3). For elite players, expect them to perform one level lower than their usual status (i.e. RB1 performs like an RB2).

Yellow – For lower-level players, he is a borderline start at best. For a second- or third-tier player, the slight edge goes to the defense in what is essentially a toss-up. For the elite players, expect slightly better than average production.

White – This one can go either way, but I favor the player over the matchup. In some cases, I just don’t feel like I have a good feel yet for this matchup. Generally speaking, these matchups are winnable for all levels of players.

Green – For non-elite players, the stage is set for a player to have a productive day. For the elite player, this matchup could produce special numbers.

Black – Player is either on a bye week or is expected to miss due to injury or suspension.

Note: Players with a next to their name have some degree of injury/character/holdout concern. Players with a * next to their name have a higher than normal chance of losing their job at some point during the season.

In the coming days, I will present my final rankings for kickers and defense/special teams as well. Later this week, I will release the final Big Board for the Fantasy Football Players Championship (FFPC).

Last but not least, I will expand the Big Board to 225 players in order to account for the 20-round format.

Here is the scoring system that I used to rank the players in the TFC PPR format:

 TFC Big Board - Top 225
Rank Pos Player Tm Age FPts SSI 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
1 RB1 Alvin Kamara NO 24 374.0 225.0
2 RB2 Saquon Barkley NYG 22 378.2 218.2
3 RB3 Christian McCaffrey CAR 23 363.0 215.0
4 RB4 David Johnson ARI 27 317.3 159.3
5 WR1 DeAndre Hopkins HOU 27 327.6 146.6
6 RB5 James Conner PIT 24 300.5 146.5
7 WR2 Davante Adams GB 26 311.0 144.0
8 WR3 Julio Jones ATL 30 312.1 143.1
9 WR4 JuJu Smith-Schuster PIT 22 312.6 131.6
10 RB6 Dalvin Cook MIN 24 279.1 129.1
11 RB7 Nick Chubb CLE 23 290.8 127.8
12 RB8 Ezekiel Elliott DAL 24 286.7 126.7
13 RB9 Le'Veon Bell NYJ 27 280.4 124.4
14 TE1 Travis Kelce KC 29 278.7 115.7
15 RB10 Todd Gurley LAR 25 267.7 112.7
16 WR5 Michael Thomas NO 26 275.2 107.2
17 WR6 Tyreek Hill KC 25 277.1 101.1
18 RB11 Chris Carson SEA 24 263.6 99.6
19 RB12 Joe Mixon CIN 23 264.0 96.0
20 WR7 Odell Beckham Jr. CLE 26 277.9 88.9
21 RB13 Leonard Fournette JAC 24 255.6 88.6
22 WR8 Mike Evans TB 26 273.9 86.9
23 RB14 David Montgomery CHI 22 241.2 85.2
24 TE2 George Kittle SF 25 237.7 84.7
25 RB15 Devonta Freeman ATL 27 248.5 84.5
26 WR9 Adam Thielen MIN 29 253.0 84.0
27 RB16 Kerryon Johnson DET 22 246.9 80.9
28 TE3 Zach Ertz PHI 28 237.2 78.2
29 RB17 Aaron Jones GB 24 239.6 74.6
30 WR10 Stefon Diggs MIN 25 255.5 74.5
31 RB18 Damien Williams KC 27 234.5 74.5
32 WR11 Keenan Allen LAC 27 247.3 74.3
33 WR12 Chris Godwin TB 23 237.9 73.9
34 WR13 Antonio Brown OAK 31 239.2 72.2
35 RB19 Mark Ingram BAL 29 226.8 69.8
36 RB20 Derrick Henry TEN 25 237.3 69.3
37 RB21 Josh Jacobs OAK 21 244.3 68.3
38 WR14 Amari Cooper DAL 25 249.8 65.8
39 QB1 Patrick Mahomes KC 23 433.0 56.0
40 RB22 James White NE 27 213.9 55.9
41 RB23 Marlon Mack IND 23 219.0 55.0
42 WR15 Robert Woods LAR 27 222.4 53.4
43 TE4 O.J. Howard TB 24 206.0 51.0
44 WR16 Tyler Boyd CIN 24 228.9 48.9
45 WR17 Brandin Cooks LAR 25 236.6 47.6
46 WR18 Julian Edelman NE 33 213.2 47.2
47 RB24 Kenyan Drake MIA 25 202.3 43.3
48 WR19 Tyler Lockett SEA 26 219.7 42.7
49 WR20 T.Y. Hilton IND 29 216.8 41.8
50 RB25 Duke Johnson HOU 25 221.6 41.6
51 RB26 Sony Michel NE 24 202.2 41.2
52 WR21 Kenny Golladay DET 25 226.8 40.8
53 WR22 D.J. Moore CAR 22 221.8 40.8
54 RB27 Melvin Gordon LAC 26 207.0 40.0
55 WR23 Mike Williams LAC 24 215.4 39.4
56 WR24 Cooper Kupp LAR 26 199.1 39.1
57 QB2 Deshaun Watson HOU 23 414.2 38.2
58 WR25 Calvin Ridley ATL 24 207.5 35.5
59 QB3 Aaron Rodgers GB 35 408.8 35.3
60 RB28 Tarik Cohen CHI 24 191.1 35.1
61 WR26 Curtis Samuel CAR 23 208.2 30.2
62 RB29 Phillip Lindsay DEN 25 198.4 29.4
63 WR27 Allen Robinson CHI 26 217.0 27.0
64 WR28 Larry Fitzgerald ARI 35 195.8 23.8
65 RB30 Miles Sanders PHI 22 176.5 23.5
66 WR29 Alshon Jeffery PHI 29 207.6 22.6
67 TE5 Jared Cook NO 32 181.3 22.3
68 TE6 Hunter Henry LAC 24 193.1 22.1
69 RB31 Austin Ekeler LAC 24 189.9 20.9
70 TE7 Evan Engram NYG 24 188.0 20.0
71 WR30 Dede Westbrook JAC 25 196.6 18.6
72 WR31 Christian Kirk ARI 22 201.5 17.5
73 WR32 Jarvis Landry CLE 26 194.6 16.6
74 RB32 Tevin Coleman SF 26 174.0 16.0
75 TE8 Vance McDonald PIT 29 182.0 15.0
76 RB33 Matt Breida SF 24 171.2 13.2
77 WR33 Jamison Crowder NYJ 26 191.4 12.4
78 QB4 Jameis Winston TB 25 383.8 8.3
79 WR34 Robby Anderson NYJ 26 203.3 8.3
80 QB5 Carson Wentz PHI 26 380.8 7.3
81 WR35 Sterling Shepard NYG 26 196.4 6.4
82 WR36 DeSean Jackson PHI 32 178.1 6.1
83 WR37 Anthony Miller CHI 24 182.4 5.4
84 RB34 Latavius Murray NO 29 181.4 5.4
85 WR38 Marvin Jones DET 29 184.7 4.7
86 WR39 Will Fuller HOU 25 186.4 4.4
87 TE9 Darren Waller OAK 26 176.2 4.2
88 RB35 Darwin Thompson KC 22 163.8 3.8
89 QB6 Baker Mayfield CLE 24 383.5 3.5
90 QB7 Cam Newton CAR 30 376.4 2.4
91 WR40 Sammy Watkins KC 26 183.6 1.6
92 RB36 Rashaad Penny SEA 23 164.9 0.9
93 QB8 Kyler Murray ARI 22 372.7 -1.3
94 TE10 David Njoku CLE 23 169.5 -1.5
95 QB9 Matt Ryan ATL 34 372.0 -2.5
96 QB10 Russell Wilson SEA 30 370.7 -2.8
97 WR41 Courtland Sutton DEN 23 191.5 -3.5
98 TE11 Austin Hooper ATL 24 167.1 -4.9
99 RB37 Jordan Howard* PHI 24 161.1 -5.9
100 RB38 Royce Freeman DEN 23 163.0 -6.0
101 RB39 Dion Lewis TEN 28 164.7 -6.3
102 WR42 Geronimo Allison GB 25 165.7 -6.3
103 TE12 Delanie Walker TEN 35 159.8 -7.2
104 WR43 Donte Moncrief PIT 26 182.5 -7.5
105 RB40 LeSean McCoy BUF 31 168.4 -11.6
106 WR44 A.J. Green CIN 31 177.3 -11.7
107 WR45 Corey Davis TEN 24 183.0 -12.0
108 TE13 Jordan Reed WAS 29 158.0 -12.0
109 TE14 Mark Andrews BAL 23 156.9 -12.1
110 QB11 Jared Goff LAR 24 360.0 -13.5
111 RB41 Alexander Mattison MIN 21 155.3 -13.7
112 WR46 Marquez Valdes-Scantling GB 24 166.0 -14.0
113 RB42 Darrell Henderson LAR 22 146.5 -14.5
114 RB43 Justice Hill BAL 21 144.0 -15.0
115 RB44 Derrius Guice WAS 22 162.4 -15.6
116 RB45 Kalen Ballage MIA 23 160.2 -16.8
117 RB46 Jaylen Samuels PIT 23 146.3 -17.7
118 TE15 Eric Ebron IND 26 140.5 -18.5
119 QB12 Ben Roethlisberger PIT 37 357.8 -19.2
120 RB47 Giovani Bernard CIN 27 154.7 -19.3
121 WR47 Dante Pettis* SF 23 162.1 -19.9
122 WR48 Emmanuel Sanders DEN 32 164.7 -22.3
123 RB48 Ronald Jones TB 22 154.6 -22.4
124 TE16 Chris Herndon NYJ 23 138.1 -23.9
125 WR49 Keke Coutee HOU 22 153.4 -24.6
126 WR50 Michael Gallup DAL 23 152.5 -25.5
127 QB13 Dak Prescott DAL 26 351.0 -25.5
128 QB14 Lamar Jackson BAL 22 352.4 -26.1
129 WR51 Josh Gordon NE 28 149.8 -28.2
130 WR52 John Brown BUF 29 174.5 -28.5
131 WR53 Golden Tate NYG 31 152.3 -28.7
132 RB49 Tony Pollard DAL 22 144.3 -29.7
133 WR54 Tyrell Williams OAK 27 154.3 -30.7
134 TE17 Jimmy Graham* GB 32 141.6 -31.4
135 QB15 Drew Brees NO 40 342.9 -31.6
136 WR55 Mohamed Sanu ATL 29 152.1 -31.9
137 QB16 Kirk Cousins MIN 31 345.1 -32.9
138 WR56 Trey Quinn WAS 23 144.6 -33.4
139 QB17 Mitchell Trubisky CHI 25 346.0 -34.5
140 QB18 Philip Rivers LAC 37 339.2 -35.8
141 RB50 Adrian Peterson* WAS 34 140.9 -37.1
142 WR57 DeVante Parker MIA 26 155.7 -38.3
143 TE18 Trey Burton CHI 27 138.4 -38.6
144 RB51 Peyton Barber* TB 25 139.5 -39.5
145 WR58 Albert Wilson MIA 27 137.9 -43.1
146 RB52 Damien Harris NE 22 116.9 -44.1
147 RB53 Chase Edmonds ARI 23 115.7 -44.3
148 RB54 Justin Jackson LAC 24 122.2 -46.8
149 QB19 Jimmy Garoppolo SF 27 331.4 -47.1
150 TE19 Dallas Goedert PHI 25 111.6 -47.4
151 WR59 Nelson Agholor PHI 26 132.6 -48.4
152 TE20 T.J. Hockenson DET 22 126.5 -49.5
153 RB55 Nyheim Hines IND 22 130.2 -49.8
154 QB20 Tom Brady NE 42 325.4 -52.1
155 QB21 Jacoby Brissett IND 25 324.7 -53.8
156 RB56 Jamaal Williams* GB 24 131.7 -54.3
157 TE21 Noah Fant DEN 21 125.4 -54.6
158 WR60 KeeSean Johnson ARI 22 139.0 -55.0
159 RB57 Devin Singletary BUF 21 124.9 -55.1
160 WR61 James Washington PIT 23 134.8 -56.2
161 RB58 Chris Thompson WAS 28 116.2 -56.8
162 WR62 Adam Humphries TEN 26 132.5 -58.5
163 RB59 Kareem Hunt CLE 24 104.4 -59.6
164 WR63 Parris Campbell IND 22 119.2 -60.8
165 RB60 Mike Davis CHI 26 96.9 -61.1
166 WR64 Cole Beasley BUF 30 130.5 -61.5
167 TE22 Kyle Rudolph MIN 29 110.8 -62.2
168 WR65 Mecole Hardman KC 21 131.8 -62.2
169 WR66 DaeSean Hamilton DEN 24 120.6 -64.4
170 RB61 Malcolm Brown LAR 26 100.9 -66.1
171 RB62 Jerick McKinnon SF 27 91.1 -66.9
172 WR67 Kenny Stills MIA 27 116.2 -67.8
173 WR68 Trent Taylor SF 25 114.0 -68.0
174 QB22 Sam Darnold NYJ 22 310.9 -68.1
175 TE23 Mike Gesicki MIA 23 107.9 -68.1
176 WR69 Devin Funchess* IND 25 110.1 -70.9
177 WR70 Miles Boykin BAL 22 124.1 -70.9
178 QB23 Andy Dalton CIN 31 312.5 -71.0
179 WR71 Josh Doctson WAS 26 137.8 -71.2
180 WR72 Deebo Samuel SF 23 118.6 -71.4
181 WR73 Chris Conley JAC 26 122.1 -72.9
182 RB63 Ty Montgomery NYJ 26 103.4 -73.6
183 RB64 Jalen Richard OAK 25 109.5 -75.5
184 RB65 Ito Smith ATL 23 104.8 -76.2
185 WR74 Marquise Goodwin SF 28 114.4 -76.6
186 TE24 Greg Olsen CAR 34 93.3 -76.7
187 QB24 Derek Carr OAK 28 301.8 -77.2
188 QB25 Matthew Stafford DET 31 302.8 -78.2
189 TE25 Jason Witten DAL 37 98.0 -79.0
190 RB66 C.J. Anderson DET 28 108.0 -79.0
191 TE26 Jack Doyle IND 29 94.4 -80.6
192 WR75 John Ross CIN 23 107.2 -80.8
193 WR76 D.K. Metcalf SEA 21 109.3 -81.7
194 TE27 Ian Thomas CAR 23 87.9 -82.1
195 RB67 Damarea Crockett HOU 21 103.7 -83.3
196 WR77 Danny Amendola DET 33 98.7 -83.3
197 WR78 Willie Snead BAL 26 99.4 -83.6
198 WR79 Breshad Perriman TB 25 112.0 -84.0
199 WR80 Zay Jones BUF 24 110.2 -85.8
200 WR81 Randall Cobb DAL 29 98.3 -88.8
201 WR82 Tre'Quan Smith NO 30 101.9 -89.1
202 WR83 Cordarrelle Patterson CHI 28 80.7 -89.3
203 QB26 Marcus Mariota TEN 25 295.8 -89.7
204 WR84 Jaron Brown SEA 29 102.3 -91.7
205 WR85 Ted Ginn Jr. NO 34 98.1 -92.9
206 RB68 Dare Ogunbowale TB 25 79.8 -93.2
207 WR86 A.J. Brown TEN 22 96.7 -93.3
208 WR87 Chad Beebe MIN 25 90.6 -93.4
209 TE28 Gerald Everett LAR 25 85.3 -93.7
210 WR88 Marqise Lee JAC 27 98.6 -94.4
211 RB69 Ty Johnson DET 21 81.7 -95.3
212 QB27 Josh Allen BUF 23 285.3 -96.2
213 RB70 Frank Gore BUF 36 85.7 -96.3
214 WR89 Quincy Enunwa NYJ 27 90.1 -96.9
215 TE29 Tyler Eifert CIN 28 88.1 -96.9
216 WR90 Robert Foster BUF 25 89.7 -97.3
217 WR91 David Moore SEA 24 91.6 -98.4
218 WR92 Paul Richardson WAS 27 107.3 -98.7
219 WR93 Taylor Gabriel CHI 28 99.0 -99.0
220 WR94 Rashard Higgins CLE 24 102.0 -99.0
221 RB71 Dontrell Hilliard* CLE 24 78.8 -103.2
222 RB72 Ryquell Armstead JAC 22 82.8 -103.2
223 WR95 Marquise Brown BAL 22 99.4 -103.6
224 WR96 Deon Cain IND 23 71.0 -106.0
225 WR97 JJ Arcega-Whiteside PHI 22 80.2 -107.8

No Longer a Draft Wasteland?

For the majority of the draft season, owners have considered the fifth through eighth picks in the first round a bit of no man's land. Those spots typically left owners without Saquon Barkley, Christian McCaffrey, Alvin Kamara and Ezekiel Elliott and put them in a spot where they had to choose between Davante Adams, Julio Jones, DeAndre Hopkins and JuJu Smith-Schuster when seemingly very little separates the four. Nick Chubb has started to crack the top 10 (and even the top five in some drafts) following the Duke Johnson trade, but there are two others owners should start considering once the "Big Three" backs are gone - assuming they don't want to play the what-if game with Elliott's holdout.

This preseason may not have answered many pressing questions around the league, but it seemed to confirm James Conner's role atop the depth chart in Pittsburgh is solid. For those that may not remember or returned to fantasy a bit late, Jaylen Samuels was seen as a viable threat to steal significant work for him. While Samuels will definitely be a weapon the Steelers will utilize, there has been nothing to suggest his new role will interfere with the one Conner earned last season. For whatever reason, there has been an ongoing narrative that Conner is an average talent whose fantasy value has been boosted up by Pittsburgh's offensive scheme and superb offensive line. OK. How does an average talent finish 13th in rushing yards after contact (451), seventh and receiving yards after contact (132) and seventh among running backs in broken tackles (25) despite only playing 13 games? Never mind the fact he tied Melvin Gordon and Matt Breida for 10th in the NFL in runs of 10 or more yards (27). Conner scored 13 times in 13 games in 2018, and there's a good chance he can maintain that rate if the Steelers are diligent about monitoring his workload. With Samuels and Benny Snell around, Pittsburgh can afford to give him a break when he needs it.

One of the more difficult players to rank this season is Dalvin Cook. From a talent and scheme perspective, he has overall RB1 upside. Literally, the only concern 98 percent of owners have about him is his durability, which is always a difficult thing to quantify. The funny thing about "injury-prone" players is they are prone to injuries until they're not. We've seen numerous examples of backs this decade overcome their "proneness" to injury to carry a heavy workload (for at least one season), including but not limited to DeMarco Murray, Darren McFadden, Knowshon Moreno and Arian Foster. Does that mean owners should forget about the fact Cook has played 15 of a possible 32 games so far in his pro career? Of course not. Just understand Cook is a player who can do it but has just been a bit unlucky so far. While Minnesota is recommitting to the running game in large part because HC Mike Zimmer wants it that way, it's also happening because Kirk Cousins is more effective when he on play-action passes AND a strong running game makes it easier for Stefon Diggs and Adam Thielen.

Food for Thought

Successful fantasy owners typically ask themselves questions almost every time they are on the clock during the draft. Do I need more depth at a particular position? Upside? Do I need to minimize risk? Those are just a few of the different types of questions running through the minds of the best this industry has to offer. This is a pertinent topic when discussing the merits of what to do around the 2-3 turn, specifically when it comes to deciding between players such as Leonard Fournette, Devonta Freeman, Aaron Jones and David Montgomery. By now, most people are clearly on the Fournette train or vow never to draft him again. While the latter is certainly understandable, there's no question he is one of the few backs in the league that has a realistic path to 300-plus carries and 50-plus catches if he can stay healthy. That kind of upside is hard to find in the late first round anymore, much less in the third.

Freeman's touch upside isn't at the Fournette level, but his path to a 60-percent carry share is. Never mind the fact Matt Ryan & Co. instills more fear into opposing defenses than Nick Foles and his crew. Unfortunately, many owners have about the same amount of confidence in Freeman's knee as Fournette's foot and/or hamstring. Most people seem to agree Jones is a coach away from being a first-round fantasy pick. That's not meant to be a shot at Matt LaFleur, but we don't know what he's going to do yet. Yes, he was calling the shots when Derrick Henry went berserk in December, but those two are obviously not the same player. What we do know is Jones has struggled to stay healthy and that LaFleur said a committee approach was the most effective way to handle the Green Bay backfield shortly after he took the job this winter. Does he feel the same way now?

Montgomery doesn't come with the same injury history as the first three, but there's little question he has more legitimate competition for touches in his backfield than the others. There's been plenty of evidence to suggest the Bears want the rookie to be the man, but how comfortable is any owner in putting all their faith in a back who is almost certainly going to lose at least 70-80 potential targets to Tarik Cohen and something in the neighborhood of 150 carries to Cohen and Mike Davis? Still, I would argue that Montgomery may be the safest play of the bunch (Fournette, Freeman and Jones). Is he the right pick in the third round? That depends greatly on what owners did in the first two rounds. A WR-WR start probably warrants a "safe" pick at running back, while an RB-WR or WR-RB start probably lends itself to one of the other three players, especially when the goal is to take home $250,000.

Three's a Crowder

Owners are always looking for that one mid-round player who can give his/her fantasy team an edge, especially in a competition such as the TFC where thousands of owners are competing for a huge pot. For what seems like a couple of years at least, I feel like I have been on an island when it comes to backing Jamison Crowder as a potential difference-maker in fantasy. Maybe this year won't be any different than previous seasons, but there is at least one "insider" who thinks 2019 will be his year. Connor Hughes of The Athletic made a pretty bold proclamation recently, stating he would not be surprised if the Duke product caught 90-plus balls and potentially 100-plus. The case against that happening is pretty simple: Crowder is going to fall in line behind Robby Anderson and Le'Veon Bell in the reception department and HC Adam Gase's offenses don't run enough plays to have three high-volume pass-catchers.

Fair enough. But for the sake of argument, let's consider the possibility that Hughes might be on to something. Gase has called the shots on offense in each of his last three stops over the last six years. In half of those seasons, his primary slot receiver has been targeted at least 111 times (Wes Welker once and Jarvis Landry twice). Not a fan of Gase? I get it. Some owners may remember Quincy Enunwa coming out of the gates on fire last season. It should come as no small surprise that he was the Jets' primary slot receiver for the first quarter or so of the season while Sam Darnold was getting his feet wet. Enunwa got hurt in Week 6 and into the slot stepped Jermaine Kearse, who was targeted nine or more times in four games between Weeks 6-12. Crowder is much more of a traditional slot receiver than either Enunwa or Kearse, and he offers big-play ability to boot. When we combine Gase's track record for making the slot receiver priority and combine it with Darnold's tendency to target them last year, it's quite possible Hughes may not be too far off.

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Doug Orth has written for FF Today since 2006 and been featured in USA TODAY's Fantasy Football Preview magazine since 2010. He is also a high-stakes player who often appears as a guest analyst on a number of national sports radio shows, such as Sirius XM's "Fantasy Drive." Doug is also a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association.