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Inside the Matchup
Week 13
11/27/19; Updated: 11/29/19

By: Andy Swanson | Jason Katz | Nick Caron | HC Green



Sunday Early:



Sunday Late:




- Green highllight indicates plus matchup (top eight)
- Red highlight indicates negative matchup (bottom eight)

Bears @ Lions - (Swanson)
Line: CHI -4.5
Total: 38.5

Passing Game Thoughts: Mitchell Trubisky delivered his best game of the 2019 season with 278 passing yards and a pair of touchdowns in the Bears’ 19-14 win against the Giants. The much-maligned third-year pro overcame a slow start to complete 25 of 41 passes while adding 18 rushing yards and his first rushing touchdown of the season.

Part of the reason why Trubisky played so well is the fact that the Giants defense is one of the worst in the league and one of the most giving to opposing quarterbacks. The season of giving continues for the Trubisky and the Bears skill position players this week when they head to Detroit to take on a Lions defense that ranks ninth in points allowed to quarterbacks, 13th to wide receivers, and second in points to running backs.

To put it lightly, the Lions are terrible. They cannot stop opponents in any facet of the game, making them an excellent matchup for even a below-average fantasy QB like Trubisky. In fact, Trubisky’s second-best game of the season came against the Lions when the two teams faced off two weeks ago at Soldier Field.

With so many solid quarterback options, it would make sense to avoid Trubisky in anything other than the deepest of leagues or super-flex formats. However, Trubisky’s excellent matchup means that Allen Robinson owners should be in line for a solid game, and even the secondary options in the passing game like Anthony Miller are worthy of a flex play. Taylor Gabriel is listed with a concussion on the Week 13 injury report and missed practice on Monday, making him a stretch to play on Thursday.

If you have been holding on to Tarik Cohen hoping for a big game, this might be your week on Turkey day. The Lions have given up a league-worst seven receiving touchdowns to opposing running backs, and only the Chiefs and the Texans have allowed more receiving yards to running backs.

DET FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.9
DET FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.2
DET FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.13
DET FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.12

Running Game Thoughts: As the No.34 ranked running back in fantasy football with 8.9 points per game, it is safe to say that rookie David Montgomery has not lived up to the hype he was given in the fantasy community this summer. Injuries to the offensive line, terrible play at the quarterback position, and questionable play calls by Matt Nagy have all contributed to a disappointing rookie campaign for Montgomery.

It may be tough for Montgomery owners to pull the trigger and start the rookie this week based on the fact that he has averaged fewer than three yards per carry in his last three games and has not scored a touchdown since Week 9.

Even in a solid matchup on paper against the Lions three weeks ago, Montgomery managed to post just 60 rushing yards on 17 carries.

Once again, on paper, this looks like a great matchup, especially because the Lions will be rolling out Jeff Driskel again, making a positive game script a possibility for the Bears ground game. But Montgomery is just as likely to give you a single-point dud, with Tarik Cohen being the running back to own and start for the fourth-straight week.

Value Meter:
QB2: Mitchell Trubisky (High-End)
RB2: David Montgomery (Low-End)
RB3: Tarik Cohen (Low-End)
WR2: Allen Robinson (High-End)
WR4: Anthony Miller (Low-End)

Passing Game Thoughts: The Lions will likely roll out Jeff Driskel (hamstring) for a fourth start with Matthew Stafford recovering from a back injury. With the Lions all but out of playoff contention, it makes little sense to rush back Stafford and make his already delicate back injury worse.

So that means Kenny Golladay and Marvin Jones owners get another week of Driskel, who all but killed the WR1 value of Golladay with four catches for 95 yards and zero touchdowns combined in matchups against the Cowboys and Redskins.

Golladay posted a nice 3/57/1 line against the Bears when Driskel made the last-minute start for the Lions Week 10, but the majority of those yards and the score came on a broken play. Golladay owners are going to start their stud, but expectations should be tempered based on what we have seen from this passing offense over the last month.

You can also start Jones with a bit of trepidation, as he is capable of two touchdowns like he posted against the Cowboys while also a 5/46/0 line is all within the realm of possibility. If Stafford were healthy and playing both wideouts would be solid plays, but with Driskel in the lineup, it is hard to predict great games for the wideouts.

Another thing to be concerned about is the health of Driskel’s hamstring. He was a limited participant on Monday due to the injury and could be limited in the game. Mobility and making plays outside of the pocket is one of the strength’s in Driskel’s game, and a bum hamstring is a concern for the skill portion players in the passing offense.

Staring center Frank Ragnow is listed with a concussion on the Week 13 injury report and could miss the game. His absence would be a knock in both the passing game and running game for the Lions, especially against a stout pass rush like Chicago’s.

CHI FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.28
CHI FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.16
CHI FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.31
CHI FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.6

Running Game Thoughts: The Lions may have found a viable running game in Bo Scarbrough, the former Alabama running back who was promoted from the practice squad two weeks ago. Scarbrough sacred a rushing touchdown against Dallas Week 11 and followed up with 98 yards on 18 carrels against the Redskins last week.

The one area in which the Bears have been vulnerable this year on defense has been stopping the run. The loss of Akiem Hicks left a hole in the middle of the Chicago run defense that the team has not yet been able to fix, and opposing teams have been able to run the ball fairly well between the tackles against the Bears.

Chicago ranks 16th in point allowed to running backs, with seven running backs finishing with double digits in fantasy points. Surprisingly, Saquon Barkley struggled with 59 yards on a17 carries last week, which could be as much about the state of his injured ankle as it was about the play of the Bears defense.

Look for the Lions to try and run the ball between the tackles with Scarbrough. While I would not expect a monster game, I would not be shocked to see Bo score another rushing touchdown with 80 or so rushing yards.

Value Meter:
QB2: Jeff Driskel (Low-End)
RB3: Bo Scarbrough (High-End)
WR2: Kenny Golladay (High-End)
WR3: Marvin Jones(Low-End)
TE2: T.J. Hockenson (High-End)

Prediction: Bears 20, Lions 17 ^ Top

Bills @ Cowboys - (Katz)
Line: DAL -7.0
Total: 46.0

Passing Game Thoughts: Josh Allen has at least 16 fantasy points in every game this season where he didn’t face the Patriots. Buoyed by a near touchdown’s worth of rushing per game, Allen is one of the safest quarterbacks in fantasy. With that being said, the Bills have had one of the easiest schedules thus far. The Cowboys have forced the fewest interceptions with just four, but they’ve also allowed just 12 passing touchdowns and only allow 213.6 passing yards per game. On the road on a short week could be tricky.

John Brown’s ability to produce consistently has been one of the great stories of 2019. Brown has scored less than double digits just once and has settled in as a reliable WR2. At home, the Cowboys are allowing just 7.1 fantasy points per game to opposing WR1s. Brown comes with a reliable floor, but a ceiling game seems unlikely. Could there be a Cole Beasley revenge game narrative? He’s a passable WR4 that you probably don’t need to start with bye weeks over. The Cowboys allow 8.4 fantasy points per game to the slot, where Beasley spends 69.3% of his time. Dawson Knox is playing the vast majority of tight end snaps, but he is not fantasy relevant.

DAL FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.25
DAL FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.19
DAL FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.28
DAL FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.9

Running Game Thoughts: Frank Gore has finally been vanquished. Devin Singletary has 21 carries last week and can be relied upon for volume. Unfortunately, his passing game work seems to have disappeared. Singletary has a mere three targets over the past two weeks due to the immense positive game script the Bills have experienced. If we are banking on that narrative, with the Bills as touchdown underdogs this week, Singletary should be in line for more passing work. The Cowboys have allowed 10 rushing touchdowns on the season and are overall a middle of the road run defense. You can certainly do worse than Singletary as your RB2.

Value Meter:
QB2: Josh Allen (high end)
RB2: Devin Singletary (low end)
WR3: John Brown
Bench: Frank Gore, Cole Beasley, Dawson Knox

Passing Game Thoughts: Dak Prescott finished as a QB2 last week for just the second time all season. The Bills have been a no fly zone, allowing just 12.4 fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks. Prescott gets to go from the top passing defense to the third best passing defense. With that being said, he should still succeed this week. As referenced above, the Bills haven’t exactly faced many good quarterbacks. Prescott is, by far, the best quarterback the Bills have seen. Expect Prescott to raise the Bills’ 184.3 passing yards against average as well as add to their mere seven touchdowns allowed.

Tre’Davious White erased Courtland Sutton last week, holding him to just one catch for 27 yards, which was still more than Amari Cooper accomplished against Stephon Gilmore. Now Cooper gets to face off with White and his 1.22 fantasy points allowed per target, 11th in the league. Prescott could look to utilize Michael Gallup and Randall Cobb much like he did last week. Cobb only played 44% of the snaps last week, but still managed a WR26 finish. The Bills allow 9.2 fantasy points per game to slot receivers, where Cobb lines up 83% of the time. Cobb can definitely beat that average. As for Gallup, he’s still averaging over eight targets per game and is an every week starter. Jason Witten has posted just two TE1 games all season. Blake Jarwin needs to start, but as the Cowboys have proven, their coaching staff is incompetent. Continue to ignore Witten in fantasy.

BUF FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.31
BUF FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.18
BUF FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.29
BUF FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.31

Running Game Thoughts: Ezekiel Elliott’s usage remains excellent as he handled 25 touches last week including four targets. Unfortunately, the ceiling just hasn’t been there this season. Zeke has not recorded a 30 point game and has just three games over 20. The good news is the Bills are more vulnerable on the ground than through the air. They’ve allowed 11 rushing touchdowns and allow 4.4 yards per carry. Fantasy owners would like to see more passing work for Elliott, but hopefully he can find his way into the end zone this week in a game that should feature positive game script.

Value Meter:
QB1: Dak Prescott (mid-range)
RB1: Ezekiel Elliott (mid-range)
WR2: Amari Cooper (mid-range)
WR3: Michael Gallup
Flex: Randall Cobb
Bench: Jason Witten, Tony Pollard

Prediction: Cowboys 24, Bills 16 ^ Top

Saints @ Falcons - (Green)
Line: NO -7.0
Total: 49.0

Passing Game Thoughts: Last week was a vintage Drew Brees game as he completed a high percentage of his throws, topped 300 yards and threw for multiple scores; and he also led a game-winning drive as time expired. Ho hum. It was anything but easy three weeks ago when the Saints laid an egg against the Falcons at home. Brees' final line (32 completions for 287 yards) doesn't do justice to what was a rough afternoon as the Saints failed to reach the end zone in a humbling 27-9 loss.

New Orleans has scored 34 points in each of the two games since, and the passing game has expanded to revolve around three players: Michael Thomas, Alvin Kamara and now Jared Cook. Thomas has topped 100 yards in five consecutive games (and six of seven) and is the top receiver in fantasy. Kamara, meanwhile, has 27 receptions on 29 targets in three games since the bye. Cook has started to gel with Brees, too, compiling a 14-206-2 line in that same three-game stretch. He's finally a solid TE1.

Just when things seemed to be looking up for the Falcons, they spit the bit in an ugly home loss to the free-falling Buccaneers. Mistake-prone Jameis Winston threw for 313 yards and three scores on just 18 completions in that one, and it looked like the Atlanta secondary we'd seen before the bye week. With the Falcons' momentum stalled, Thomas, Cook and Brees are all strong options on Thanksgiving Day.

ATL FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.5
ATL FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.17
ATL FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.3
ATL FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.18

Running Game Thoughts: Kamara hasn't been great on the ground this season, topping 70 yards just twice and never reaching the century mark (something Latavius Murray did in consecutive weeks when Kamara was injured). His involvement in the passing game is so significant (and consistent), however, that he remains a high-end RB1 each week. As for Murray, he carried seven times for 64 yards and a score against the Panthers last Sunday. That marked his best game when both backs have been active and speaks to his limited role most weeks.

This Thursday could be an exception, though, given the short turnaround as he should be considerably fresher than Kamara. Granted, the Falcons held Murray to just 19 yards in Week 10, but I'd still consider him an intriguing flex. For the season, the Falcons have allowed 109.9 yards rushing per game, which sits 18th in the NFL. I'd expect inspired efforts all around from a Saints team that was embarrassed last time.

Value Meter:
QB1: Drew Brees
RB1: Alvin Kamara
Flex: Latavius Murray
WR1: Michael Thomas
TE1: Jared Cook
Bench: Tre'Quan Smith

Passing Game Thoughts: At home against a team that'd lost five of six and carried one of the league's worst secondaries into town, Matt Ryan completed just half of his 46 passes for 271 yards, 0 TDs and an INT. After throwing for multiple scores in five of six games to open the 2019 campaign, Ryan has accomplished that feat just once in the last four. That came against these same Saints in Week 10, though it was attached to just 182 passing yards, his lowest full-game output of the year.

Beyond just losing a game, the Falcons also saw Julio Jones incur a shoulder injury in Week 12. There's been no official update from Dan Quinn, but Jones' track record speaks for itself when it comes to gutting it out through injuries. He may be a game-time decision so keep an eye on the inactives -- the silver lining is that since they play Thursday you'll have plenty of time to formulate a Plan B if necessary.

One player who isn't expected to play is Austin Hooper (knee), who's likely to miss at least one more week with his knee injury. That could leave Calvin Ridley (6-85-1 last week) as the primary option. He's not Jones, but he's a must play independent of whoever else suits up for the Falcons. Russell Gage caught eight passes last week and could be a one-week roll of the dice if Jones can't go.

Defensively, the Saints sit mid-pack against the pass, giving up 232.7 yards per game. Their secondary could be buoyed by the return of No. 1 cornerback Marshon Lattimore (hamstring) from a two-game absence, though like many banged up players he's likely to be a game-time decision on the short week.

NO FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.13
NO FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.29
NO FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.9
NO FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.25

Running Game Thoughts: Like Lattimore, Devonta Freeman (foot) has missed the past two games but is trending toward a possible Turkey Day return. Sans Freeman, the running game has been stuck in neutral, accounting for just 111 yards on 45 attempts combined in that span. Brian Hill, who did a nice job in relief of Freeman against the Saints, has 24 totes for 44 yards, a woeful 1.8 yards per carry. It all comes down to Freeman's status: if he's active he's an RB2, if not, Hill offers limited flex value.

New Orleans remains one of the NFL's better run defenses, allowing only 88.5 yards per game this season. That being said, both Atlanta (34 rushes for 143 yards) and Carolina (29-121) had success pounding the rock recently, and I don't expect the Falcons to abandon that approach this week.

Value Meter:
QB1: Matt Ryan
RB2: Devonta Freeman (if healthy)
Flex: Brian Hill (if Freeman is inactive)
WR1: Julio Jones
WR2: Calvin Ridley
Bench: Austin Hooper (knee), Russell Gage

Prediction: Saints 31, Falcons 20 ^ Top

Redskins @ Panthers - (Green)
Line: CAR -10.0
Total: 40.0

Passing Game Thoughts: Whatever the future may hold for Dwayne Haskins, the 15th overall pick in this year's draft, in the present he looks hopelessly overmatched. In three starts he has completed 47 of 86 passes for 514 yards, 2 TDs and 2 INTs. As bad as those numbers look, the reality is probably worse as easily his best statistical game came in Week 11 against the Jets when the 'Skins trailed by 31 in the fourth quarter. If I were to rank all 32 starting QBs for Week 13, Haskins might be 33rd.

There's really one name to know when it comes to Washington's passing game, and that's Terry McLaurin. The rookie starred at Ohio State with Haskins and has come the closest to preserving some semblance of fantasy appeal following the QB switch. In Haskins' three starts, McLaurin has 12 catches (on 22 targets) for 180 yards. That's not great, but it could be low-end WR3 or flex value in some leagues. As for Trey Quinn, Paul Richardson (hamstring) and Kelvin Harmon, none of them carry any fantasy value.

Carolina has yielded 239.6 passing yards per game (18th) this season, and they have to be salivating at the prospect of facing Haskins on the heels of seeing Aaron Rodgers, Matt Ryan and Drew Brees over the previous three weeks.

CAR FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.18
CAR FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.3
CAR FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.11
CAR FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.24

Running Game Thoughts: While he hasn't done a whole lot just yet, the fact that Derrius Guice is back on the field has to qualify as a silver lining for Washington after injuries forced him to miss 24 of his first 25 possible games. In two games since being activated off IR, Guice has run 17 times for 56 yards; he also caught Haskins' first TD pass on a screen that ruptured into a 45-yard score against the Jets.

With Guice coming off major injuries, the team will continue to split touches between him and veteran Adrian Peterson, who has seen 19 carries (for 52 yards) in two games with the second-year pro. Between the timeshare and defenses stacking the line, neither player is more than a low-end flex selection. Defensively, Carolina has really struggled against the run (127.5 yards allowed per game; 27th), but that's not enough for me to be bullish on Guice or Peterson.

Value Meter:
Flex: Derrius Guice (low-end)
Flex: Adrian Peterson (low-end)
WR3/Flex: Terry McLaurin
Bench: Dwayne Haskins

Passing Game Thoughts: Coming off a poor showing in a 26-point home loss to Atlanta, Kyle Allen held his own against Drew Brees in Week 12, completing 23 of 36 passes for 256 yards and 3 TDs. Allen's up-and-down performances from one week to the next is a little reminiscent of Ryan Fitzpatrick, making him the same kind of a risky play with a potentially high ceiling and a very low floor. Despite Carolina being heavily favored, this doesn't read like a great matchup for Allen, who is more of a QB2.

More and more each week the Panthers' passing game is looking a three-man affair with D.J. Moore (six receptions, 126 yards, 2 TDs last week), Christian McCaffrey (9-69-1) and Greg Olsen (5-44-0) getting most of the looks. The odd man out has been Curtis Samuel (1-9-0), who salvaged some value last week by rushing for 40 yards. With fewer than 50 yards receiving in four of the last five games, Samuel is no more than a shaky flex play, while Moore is on the threshold of weekly WR1 status.

A couple of years ago, the storyline of this game would've been the return of Josh Norman to Carolina. Now it's unclear what role the veteran even has; Bill Callahan wouldn't commit to Norman starting going forward after holding him out of action a week ago due to medical reasons. Overall, Washington ranks 11th in pass defense (231.4 yards per game) with Landon Collins as the centerpiece of the secondary.

WAS FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.15
WAS FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.9
WAS FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.15
WAS FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.8

Running Game Thoughts: McCaffrey carried 22 times for 64 yards (2.9 YPC) and a touchdown against the Saints last week. His dual-threat ability is currently unmatched, and he's in line for tons of touches against Washington this Sunday. For the year, the 'Skins have surrendered 137.6 rushing yards per game, which is 28th in the NFL. This could be a big day for Run CMC.

Value Meter:
QB2: Kyle Allen
RB1: Christian McCaffrey
WR1/WR2: D.J. Moore
Flex: Curtis Samuel
TE1: Greg Olsen

Prediction: Panthers 30, Redskins 9 ^ Top

Jets @ Bengals - (Swanson)
Line: NYJ -3.5
Total: 41.0

Passing Game Thoughts: It may surprise many readers to learn that only Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen have more fantasy points at the quarterback position over the past three games than Sam Darnold.

The second-year quarterback is riding a hot streak with three games of over 24 fantasy points, including 30.4 and 31.4 points in his last two games against the Redskins and the Raiders. Darnold is taking advantage of a soft schedule filled with teams in the bottom quarter of the league in fantasy points allowed to QBs and wide receivers.

Look for the hot streak to continue this week against a Bengals defense that gives up the 11th-most points to quarterbacks and the 19th most points to wide receivers. Cincinnati also struggles against running backs, making all the skill position players on the Jets nice plays this week.

Nine different receivers posted at least ten fantasy points against the Bengals this season, highlighted by Cooper Kupp’s 220 yards and a score for 28 points Week 8.

Both slot possession and deep threat receivers have found success against the Bengals, making Jamison Crowder and Robby Anderson viable plays this week.

Anderson’s targets continue to be an issue with no more than five targets in any game doing back to Week 8 at Jacksonville, but he does have a score in each of the last two games and could be in line for a big play or two on Sunday.

Like Anderson, tight end Ryan Griffin has been on a hot streak with a touchdown in each of his last two games. The Bengals have given up big games to Darren Waller and Mark Andrews, recently, so Griffin owners may want to stay in the flames and play him this week.

CIN FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.7
CIN FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.6
CIN FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.19
CIN FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.14

Running Game Thoughts: The first year of Le’Veon Bell as a New York Jet has been a mixed bag through 11 games of the season. Bell’s 10.6 point per game ranks 24th among the running back position - not exactly what owners were hoping for when he was drafted in the top 15 overall this summer.

Bell does have a streak of at least ten fantasy points in his last four games, despite posting a meager 3.4 yard per carry average.

This is the week where Bell will pay dividends. The Bengals are dreadful at stopping the run, with 12 total touchdowns allowed this season, and three players have topped 100 rushing yards.

Benny Snell just dropped 98 yards on the Bengals, leading me to believe Bell is in line for a similar yardage total with the upside of a touchdown or two.

Value Meter:
QB1: Sam Darnold (Low-End)
RB1: Le’Veon Bell (Low-End)
WR2: Jamison Crowder (Low-End)
WR3: Robby Anderson (Low-End)
TE1: Ryan Griffin (Low-End)

Passing Game Thoughts: The Bengals benched Andy Dalton in favor of rookie Ryan Finley after their Week 9 bye with the hope of giving the rook a few games to prove he is the quarterback of the future. With the Bengals a near-lock for the first overall pick and a chance to draft Tua or Joe Barrow, it made sense at the time to see if Finley had much to offer.

Finley did not respond well to his opportunity, with 474 passing yards and two touchdowns in three games. The former North Carolina State star completed just 47% of his passes, looking lost and times like a deer in headlights.

So, back to Dalton the team will go with five games left in the season. Dalton returns to the starting lineup with a good chance of being fantasy relevant in two-quarterback leagues, and his return to the field should be a boost to Tyler Boyd and Auden Tate

The Jets rank 16th in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks and eighth in points allowed to wide receivers. Both New York teams have been a smorgasbord of fantasy goodness for wide receivers this season, with the Jets and the Giants ranking in the top 10 in points allowed.

Eleven different wide receivers have topped ten fantasy points this year, and four opponents have scored more than 19 points.

This game has the makings of a shootout between two teams who have little to play for and two defenses who cannot stop anyone. Fire up Tyler Boyd as a solid low-end WR2, and slot receiver Alex Erickson could be a sneaky flex option in PPR formats.

NYJ FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.16
NYJ FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.23
NYJ FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.8
NYJ FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.30

Running Game Thoughts: After a terrible start to the season in which he posted 4.4 combined fantasy points against the Seahawks and 49ers, Mixon has steadily climbed up the running back rankings with an average of 12 fantasy points in his last four games.

The matchup against the Jets is not great, as New York ranks 23rd in the league in points allowed to running backs. No running back has scored a touchdown on the ground against New York since Sony Michel posted three rushing touchdowns Week 7, and no opposing back has topped 30 yards in a game since Leonard Fournette rushed for 76 yards on 19 carries in Week 8.

The way to beat the Jets as of late has been in the air and not the ground, and I anticipate head coach Zac Taylor will look to take advantage of this fact in his gameplan on Sunday.

Value Meter:
QB1: Andy Dalton (Low-End)
RB2: Joe Mixon (Low-End)
WR2: Tyler Boyd (Low-End)
WR4: Auden Tate (Low-End)
WR4: Alex Erickson (Low-End)
TE2: Tyler Eifert (Low-End)

Prediction: New York 34, Cincinnati 28 ^ Top

Titans @ Colts - (Green)
Line: IND -2.5
Total: 43.5

Passing Game Thoughts: Since making the switch to Ryan Tannehill, the Titans have won four of five and are right back in the thick of the playoff chase. Tannehill has been highly effective, throwing for multiple scores in each of those four wins. He's also shown some shiftiness as a runner, amassing 115 yards and three TDs on the ground in the past three games. The yardage hasn't been stellar, nor has the number of completions, which adds a lot of volatility to Tennessee's passing game.

There are no sure things amongst the Titans receiving corps, but A.J. Brown (4-135-1 in Week 12) offers the best odds to contribute on a game-by-game basis. There's still risk a plenty with the rookie, though, who has been held to under 20 receiving yards twice on Tannehill's watch. Corey Davis has battled injuries and done little when on the field, so I'd shy away from him for now. Delanie Walker (ankle) was finally placed on IR, giving the top job to Jonnu Smith, who could have some late-season appeal. Adam Humphries isn't worth owning.

Indy got hit with some big plays last week against the Texans, which at least gives hope to downfield threats like Brown and Davis, though that tandem isn't in the same league as DeAndre Hopkins and Will Fuller. On the season, the Colts rank 16th against the pass, allowing 235 yards per game via the air.

IND FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.23
IND FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.28
IND FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.14
IND FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.16

Running Game Thoughts: Derrick Henry has been an absolute savage over the past two games, compiling 347 yards on 42 carries (8.3 YPC) and four scores while hitting long TD runs in each. Even without the benefit of involvement in the passing game, Henry has ascended into RB1 territory. He ran for 82 yards and a score in Week 2 against the Colts, which rank eighth in the NFL against the run (97 yards per game).

Value Meter:
RB1: Derrick Henry
WR3/Flex: A.J. Brown
Bench: Ryan Tannehill, Corey Davis, Adam Humphries, Jonnu Smith

Passing Game Thoughts: In his two games since returning from a knee injury, Jacoby Brissett has thrown for 148 and 129 yards, respectively. Whether that's scheme, a lack of healthy options outside or the lingering effects of the injury is unknown, but it has undone a lot of good will he'd cultivated with fantasy owners. During his first meeting with the Titans, Brissett passed for just 146 yards but supplemented that with a trio of touchdowns strikes. He's definitely someone to leave on your bench for the rematch.

Indianapolis' aerial attack got good news last Thursday when T.Y. Hilton (calf) came back from a calf injury. He was on a snap count, though, and didn't look sharp; he had a couple of important drops and finished with just 18 yards on three grabs. He also reportedly aggravated the injury, and has been ruled out. After Hilton, the next best bet is Jack Doyle, who should see more looks with Eric Ebron (ankle) placed on IR. Zach Pascal has completely vanished but could have some flex appeal with Hilton out.

At 255.6 yards allowed per game, the Titans are currently 24th against the pass. They've been worse than that of late, only holding Kyle Allen (232) under that average in their last five games with three QBs passing for 300-plus. The loss of pass rusher Cameron Wake (hamstring) could hurt as well. It's just unclear whether the Colts have the pieces (or mindset) to take advantage.

TEN FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.17
TEN FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.13
TEN FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.17
TEN FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.11

Running Game Thoughts: With Marlon Mack (hand) out, Jonathan Williams was the bell cow in Week 12, carrying the ball 26 times for 104 yards and a TD. Look for more of the same even with normal backup Jordan Wilkins (ankle) ready to contribute. The Colts rarely spelled Mack with Wilkins when both were healthy, and I'd expect them to ride with Williams barring fumbles or complete ineffectiveness. Nyheim Hines has been marginally more involved recently, but it's still not enough to take notice.

Tennessee is 12th against the run this season (103.8 per game) and is coming off a physical matchup with Jacksonville's Leonard Fournette, who ran 24 times for 97 yards and a pair of scores. I could see Williams functioning in a similar high-usage role as Fournette and serving as a middling RB2.

Value Meter:
RB2: Jonathan Williams
TE1: Jack Doyle (low-end)
Flex: Zach Pascal
Bench: Jacoby Brissett, T.Y. Hilton, Marlon Mack (hand)

Prediction: Colts 23, Titans 20 ^ Top

49ers @ Ravens - (Swanson)
Line: BAL -6.0
Total: 46.5

Passing Game Thoughts: In what could be a Super Bowl preview between arguably the two best teams in their respective conferences, the 10-1 San Francisco head to Baltimore to take on the 9-2 Ravens.

After a slow start to the season, Jimmy Garoppolo has been on fire as of late with 13 passing touchdowns and 1,417 passing yards over his last five games. His 24.8 points per game during that span ranks ninth at the position, ahead of Drew Brees, Russell Wilson, Deshaun Watson, Aaron Rodgers, and Tom Brady.

Jimmy G has been far more efficient over that span, completing over 70% of his passes while throwing just three picks.

He and the other skill position players face a stiff challenge this week against a team built in a similar fashion to their own, one that wants to run the ball first and play solid defense. The problem is the Ravens boast the leading MVP candidate and an offense that just dropped 45 points on the Rams and appeared to be able to score at will.

It will be an uphill battle for Jimmy G and the offense to keep pace with Lamar Jackson and the Rams. The 49ers need to stick with the run, and high percentage passes to mitigate turnovers and keep Jackson on the sideline.

The Ravens allow the 6th-fewest points to opposing quarterbacks, and wide receivers have managed to score a paltry six touchdowns this season. Look for Garoppolo to lean heavily on throws to George Kittle and the running backs for the 49ers in favor of trying to force passes to the opportunistic secondary led by Jimmy Smith and Marcus Peters.

Starting left tackle Joe Staley missed the last two games with finger and knee issues. He is once against questionable to play, but he has not been ruled out as of now. His return would be a massive lift in limiting the Baltimore pass rush led by Matt Judon.

BAL FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.27
BAL FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.24
BAL FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.21
BAL FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.28

Running Game Thoughts: The 49ers lead the NFL in fantasy points scored at the running back position as head coach Kyle Shannahan continues to produce one of the more potent ground games in the league.

The vaunted Niner rush attack has been somewhat limited over the past five games, scoring the 4th most points per game behind the Ravens, Packers, and Chargers.

Look for Shanahan to focus on trying to run the ball extensively against the Ravens in what shod be a physical, smash-mouth type of game and a throwback to the old NFL.

Although the Rams and Todd Gurley failed to do much on the ground against the Ravens last week, Duke Johnson and Carlos Hyde combined to post 105 yards and a score Week 11 and Joe Mixon posted 151 total yards Week 10.

Tevin Coleman should be viewed as a solid, low-end No.2 running back while Raheem Mostert could once again be in the flex conversation.

Value Meter:
QB2: Jimmy Garoppolo (High-End)
RB2: Tevin Coleman (Low-End)
WR3: Emmanuel Sanders (Low-End)
WR4: Deebo Samuel (High-End)
TE1: George Kittle (Elite)

Passing Game Thoughts: The Lamar Jackson experience took Hollywood by storm on Sunday Night Football, with Jackson throwing five touchdowns for the second time this season. Jackson continues to be the cheat code in fantasy football, giving his owners a massive leg up over the competition.

Hollywood Brown lived up to his name, with two touchdowns and 42 receiving yards on five receptions. Brown now has a receiving touchdown in each of the last five games and should be a must-start against even the stout 49ers pass defense. One of the reasons why the 49ers have been so tough to pass on his the pressure they get on the quarterback. If Jackson is able to evade the pass rush and allow Brown to get downfield behind the San Francisco secondary, there are big plays that can be made on Richard Sherman with speed receivers.

San Francisco allows the third-fewest points to quarterbacks and the fewest total passing yards on the season. No team has allowed fewer points to opposing tight ends, and only the Pats and the Bucs have allowed fewer points to running backs.

This is the classic battle of strengths against strengths, the best offense against one of the best defenses. While I don’t anticipate this will be a high scoring game, Jackson’s amazing versatility will allow him to still produce enough fantasy points to be a strong start.

SF FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.30
SF FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.30
SF FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.26
SF FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.32

Running Game Thoughts: Mark Ingram ran like a man possessed last week when he rumbled for 111 yards and two total touchdowns against a Rams team the has not allowed a rushing touchdown or 100-yard rusher since Week 6.

The Raven run game is a perfect mix of being powerful, explosive, dynamic, and complicated. Just when you think you have them stopped, Jackson busts a 40-yard run on a read-option, and Ingram punches you in the face on the next run game for ten yards up the middle.

If there is a defensive line to match the running ability of the Ravens offense, it is the 49ers. They are a deep line with size and speed, and the addition of Nick Bosa on the edge gives them speed and power to keep contain.

Bosa’s ability to read the option and limit the runs outside will be key to the success of the Niners in winning this game. He has struggled with this at times, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see offensive coordinator Greg Roman key in on read-options to Bosa’s side.

A knee injury to starting center Matt Skura may negatively affect the way the Ravens run the ball inside, as rookie Patrick Mekari will have his hands full stopping DJ Jones, DeForest Buckner, and Arik Armstead. You are still starting Mark Ingram, just be aware that the loss of Skura could make running a bit more difficult.

Value Meter:
QB1: Lamar Jackson (High-End)
RB1: Mark Ingram (Low-End)
WR2: Marquise Brown (Low-End)
WR4: Willie Snead (Low-End)
TE2: Mark Andrews (High-End)

Prediction: Baltimore 28, San Francisco 20 ^ Top

Buccaneers @ Jaguars - (Green)
Line: TB -1.5
Total: 49.0

Passing Game Thoughts: With the Falcons riding high after back-to-back road wins within the division, Jameis Winston looked to have his work cut out for him. As it turned out, last Sunday proved to be light work for Winston, who threw for 313 yards on just 18 completions with three TDs and the obligatory two interceptions. In a year where many of the expected studs have fallen flat (Jared Goff, Carson Wentz, even Tom Brady), Winston has become a solid QB1 where INTs are simply the cost of doing business.

Chris Godwin activated God(win) Mode against the Falcons, hauling in seven passes for 184 yards and two scores. That easily outpaced Mike Evans (4-50-0), and that pairing has traded statistical supremacy throughout the season. They absolutely dominate the focus of Tampa's passing game, and both are locked in as WR1s. Beyond that, there's no value to be found. Cameron Brate went from 10 catches in Week 11 to none last week, and O.J. Howard had another one-catch afternoon… but hey, Vita Vea caught a TD...

Jacksonville ranks 10th against the pass this year, though it's debatable how much stock should be put into that ranking considering how miserable they've been against the run; a week ago, Ryan Tannehill attempted just 18 passes in a 42-20 throttling. I haven't seen anything from the Jags to make me think Tampa will shy away from passing.

JAC FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.14
JAC FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.7
JAC FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.22
JAC FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.19

Running Game Thoughts: After handing off just six times in Week 11, Bruce Arians went for more balance last week, calling Ronald Jones' number 12 times for 51 yards and a score, and Peyton Barber for 11 carries and 32 yards. The earlier proclamation that Jones was the starter has had almost no impact on distribution of touches, leaving Jones as a low-end RB3 and Barber as a nominal flex option.

Both are staring down the tastiest of matchups this week, though, as the Jags are giving up 142.3 rushing yards per game (29th). Incredibly, they've been even worse lately, allowing three 100-yard performances in the last TWO games -- Indy had two runners top the century mark. There's risk given Arians' aversion to sticking with the run, but Jones and Barber have tangible upside.

Value Meter:
QB1: Jameis Winston
RB2/RB3: Ronald Jones
Flex: Peyton Barber (low-end)
WR1: Mike Evans
WR1: Chris Godwin
Bench: O.J. Howard

Passing Game Thoughts: Much was made of Jacksonville's decision between Nick Foles and Gardner Minshew, but given how porous the defense has been recently it probably hasn't mattered. Foles was 32 of 48 for 272 yards in Week 12, giving him 95 passes in two games, but had no TDs. While this isn't the direction Doug Marrone wants to go with his offense, playing from behind has forced his hand, and it wouldn't be a surprise to see more of the same in Week 13.

Dede Westbrook (8-69-0 last week) seems to be separating a bit from Chris Conley (4-49-0) as the No.2 target behind D.J. Chark (5-38-0), which should make Chark and Westbrook the plays this Sunday while Conley rides the pine. The development of Leonard Fournette has been an interesting subplot, as he led the team in both targets (12) and receptions (nine) last week. There's nothing of interest at tight end.

Tampa Bay may possess the worst secondary in the NFL. They're currently 31st, allowing 289.9 passing yards per game. Given their talent on the defensive line and ability to make life tough on running backs, opponent after opponent goes after the Bucs' DBs, usually for much success. It's hard not to like some of the matchups here for J-Ville, though I'd still be hesitant to insert Foles into your lineup.

TB FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.2
TB FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.31
TB FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.1
TB FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.2

Running Game Thoughts: A forgotten man the previous two games, Fournette ran the ball 24 times for 92 yards and a pair of touchdowns against the Titans. He might be hard pressed to match that production against Tampa Bay, which allows just 78.7 yards per contest on the ground (second-fewest in the NFL). That being said, Fournette's passing-game exploits should allow him to retain RB1 value.

QB2: Nick Foles
RB1: Leonard Fournette
WR1/WR2: D.J. Chark
WR3: Dede Westbrook
Bench: Gardner Minshew, Chris Conley

Prediction: Buccaneers 31, Jaguars 20 ^ Top

Packers at Giants - (Katz)
Line: GB -6.5
Total: 45.0

Passing Game Thoughts: The bad news is Aaron Rodgers has devolved into nothing more than a streamer based on matchup. The good news is matchups don’t get much better than the Giants. The Giants allow 22 fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. Rodgers has been the epitome of all or nothing this season. He has three top three finishes and six finishes outside the top 20. Rodgers is far more likely to be top three this week. The Giants allow 21.2 fantasy points per game to opposing WR1s. Davante Adams should smash this week. As for the Packers’ WR2, there is no one. Allen Lazard, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Geronimo Allison, and Jake Kumerow all rotate making them tough to roster in fantasy. Jimmy Graham pays is a threat to catch a random touchdown but you should not be starting him.

NYG FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.8
NYG FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.15
NYG FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.2
NYG FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.29

Running Game Thoughts: Aaron Jones had a miserable game last week against the 49ers. Things should be much easier against the Giants, who have allowed 13 rushing touchdowns this season. Matt LaFleur also came out and said he needs to get Jones more involved in the passing game. Jamaal Williams is also in play this week because even though Jones should be more involved, Williams is still playing about 50% of the snaps. He has 31 touches over his past two games. The Packers will score a lot of points so both backs have an opportunity to shine.

Value Meter:
QB1: Aaron Rodgers (high end)
RB1: Aaron Jones (mid-range)
WR1: Davante Adams (high end)
Flex: Jamaal Williams
Bench: Allen Lazard, Jimmy Graham

Passing Game Thoughts: Daniel Jones continues to look clueless in the pocket. He’s taken an absurd 23 sacks while committing 11 fumbles over his last five games. Yet, somehow, he has an overall QB1 and QB3 fantasy performance during that span. Jones’ inability to help the Giants win games does not keep him from being fantasy viable. The Packers are touchdown favorites and if they get out to an early lead, we could see Jones eclipse 40 pass attempts again. Jones is a near lock to turn it over a couple times, but he can overcome that with his stable rushing floor. Jones has six games of at least 20 rushing yards.

It helps that Sterling Shepard is back healthy. He played every snap last week and saw nine targets. He may run into Jaire Alexander, but the volume is going to be there. Chase the targets. Evan Engram remains sidelined with a foot injury and I’d be surprised if he played again this season. Giants’ tight ends are off the table. Golden Tate is dealing with a concussion making him a tricky start if he plays against a Packers defense allowing just 5.7 fantasy points per game to the slot. Darius Slayton has played well and still logged an 86% snap share last week. He’s a desperation flex play.

GB FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.24
GB FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.5
GB FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.24
GB FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.3

Running Game Thoughts: Saquon Barkley is the most talented running back in the NFL but the Giants offensive line cannot block and they cannot move the ball. Barkley is having a worse season than 2018 David Johnson. He’s barely an RB1. The Packers have struggled against the run, though. They allow 4.8 yards per carry and have allowed 13 rushing touchdowns. It would be nice to see Barkley more involved in the passing game as he only has eight targets over his past two games. You are never benching Barkley, but you are merely hoping for the explosion; it is far from a certainty, or even likely.

Value Meter:
QB2: Daniel Jones (viable streamer)
RB1: Saquon Barkley (low end)
WR3: Sterling Shepard
Flex: Golden Tate (if he plays)
Bench: Evan Engram (foot), Darius Slayton

Prediction: Packers 34, Giants 24 ^ Top

Browns @ Steelers - (Swanson)
Line: CLE -2.0
Total: 39.0

Passing Game Thoughts: Baker Mayfield entered the 2019 season on the shortlist of breakout quarterbacks after points a record-setting 27 passing touchdowns as a rookie in 2018. The addition of Odell Beckham Jr. and Kareem Hunt to an already stacked skill-position set had some people thinking Mayfield could be this year’s Patrick Mahomes.

As is often the case with breakout rookies, the sophomore season for Mayfield started off rocky with the Browns losing six of their first eight games. After the first six games of the year, Mayfield led the league in interceptions and had yet to throw more than one passing touchdown in any game.

Flash forward to the last three games of the season against Buffalo, Pittsburgh, and Miami. In those games, Mayfield proved to be a fantasy stud, with an average for 24 points per game, including 327 yards and three passing touchdowns for 28.9 points last week at home against the Dolphins.

Two weeks ago, Mayfield threw two passing touchdowns and rushed for another against the same Steelers team that he takes on this week at Heinz Field. The Browns won that game 21-7, with Myles Garrett beating Mason Rudolph over the head with his own helmet in the closing minutes.

It is going to be difficult for Mayfield owners to bench him even in a tough road matchup like this. Although Baker did post 23.8 points against the Steelers Week 11, Pittsburgh does allow the 10th fewest points to opposing quarterbacks, and they will be out for revenge in this divisional tilt.

Russell Wilson and Brian Hoyer each posted three passing touchdowns when their respective teams played at Heinz Field, while Jared Goff and Lamar Jackson were held to a combined one passing touchdown.

Jarvis Landry scored a receiving touchdown in each of his last four games, including one on four catches for 43 yards against Pittsburgh Week 11. You cannot bench him or OBJ in this game, as Beckham has averaged ten targets in each of his last four games and scored his first receiving touchdown in over two months last week against Miami.

On the injury front, starting left tackle Greg Robinson did not practice on Wednesday and could be out with a concussion. Although not one of the better pass-blocking tackles in the league, the Steelers pass rush led by TJ Watt and Bud Dupree could force a ton of outside pressure on Mayfield.

PIT FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.22
PIT FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.27
PIT FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.16
PIT FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.10

Running Game Thoughts: The running back group led by Nick Chubb ranks eighth in fantasy points scored on the year and sixth in the past three weeks since Kareem Hunt joined the team from suspension.

Both Chubb and Hunt scored a rushing touchdown last week against the lowly Dolphins defense, with the former posing his best receiving day of the year as well. Hunt posted 74 total yards against Pitt Week 11, and Chubb rushed for 92 yards on 27 carries in a lopsided win.

With the Steelers turning to Duck Hodges to help spark the offense, the Browns may not have the same blowout win and positive rushing game script they had two weeks ago.

On the year, the Steelers give up the sixth-fewest points to running backs and just four total rushing touchdowns on the season. No opposing back has reached 100 yards against the Steelers, and no running back has caught a receiving touchdown.

Chubb’s first and second down volume makes him a decent No.2 running back this week, and Hunt still has some flex appeal, but they certainly do not have the same ceiling they each enjoyed last week at home against the Dolphins.

Value Meter:
QB1: Baker Mayfield (Low-End)
RB2: Nick Chubb (High-End)
RB3: Kareem Hunt (Low-End)
WR2: Jarvis Landry (Low-End)
WR2: Odell Beckham Jr. (Low-End)
TE2: Demetrius Harris (Low-End)

Passing Game Thoughts: Devlin Hodges takes over the starting role at quarterback from the shell-shocked and underperforming Mason Rudolph. Only the Broncos and Redskins have fewer fantasy points this season generated at the quarterback position, and Hodges clearly gave the team a spark last week against the Bengals when he relieved Rudolph in the second half.

Wide receiver JuJu Smith-Schuster was a DNP on Wednesday’s practice report and looks like he will miss another game with a knee injury. Another injury to keep an eye on is left tackle Alejandro Villanueva, who was limited with a shoulder injury. Villanueva looks like he is going to play but will likely be limited and could be in an out of the lineup.

The good news for Villanueva and the entire offensive lineman for the Steelers is the fact that Myles Garrett is out indefinitely for the brawl he incited by hitting Mason Rudolph over the head with a helmet two weeks ago. Larry Ogunjobi returns to the defensive line with his suspension served, but he has more of an impact on the run game than the pass.

James Washington took advantage of extra targets and also took advantage of a terrible Dolphins secondary to post three catches for 98 yards and a touchdown. Should Smith-Schuster miss another game, look for Washington and rookie Diontae Johnson to each garner at least five targets against the Browns.

After a slow start to the season and injuries to the secondary, the Browns have tightened up their pass defense as of late and are no longer a team to target in fantasy. Cleveland has given up the eighth-fewest points to wide receivers in the past three weeks, with only Allen Hurns reaching pay dirt.

CLE FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.11
CLE FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.20
CLE FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.23
CLE FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.7

Running Game Thoughts: Rookie Benny Snell gave the rushing attack a shot in the arm with 98 yards on a 21 carries against the Bengals last week. It was the first time a Steeler running back rushed more than 15 times dating back to James Conner’s 23/145/1 line against Miami Week 8.

Look for Snell to once again be the hammer in the Pittsburgh ground game with Jaylen Samuels working more as a passing down threat. Snell is the more powerful runner of the two and appears to have gained favor in the eyes of head coach Mike Tomlin.

The return of Larry Ogunjobi will give the Browns defense their own shot in the arm. Cleveland ranks 20th in fantasy points allowed to running backs, but they have not allowed a rushing touchdown shine Week 8 or a 100-yard day since Chris Carson lit them up for 124 yards on 24 carries back in Week 6.

Snell is a nice low-end No. 2 who will deliver solid production assuming the game flow does not get out of hand, and the Steelers are forced to throw more than they would like.

It is hard to recommend starting Samuels based on the low volume we have seen over the past two weeks. If he scores, he is a great flex, but he could just as easily give you a goose on Turkey week.

Value Meter:
QB2: Devlin Hodges (Low-End)
RB2: Benny Snell (Low-End)
WR3: James Washington (Low-End)
WR4: Diontae Johnson (Low-End)
TE1: Vance McDonald (Low-End)

Prediction: Cleveland 24, Pittsburgh 14 ^ Top

Rams @ Cardinals - (Caron)
Line: LAR -3.0
Total: 47.5

Passing Game Thoughts: The Rams’ offensive struggles continued this past week as they were humiliated in front of a national audience on Monday Night Football, with Jared Goff failing to throw a touchdown pass for his third straight game. Goff has also failed to exceed 250 passing yards in this recent stretch and has thrown a total of five interceptions. While these struggles are certainly something that fantasy owners need to be concerned about as the once-dominant Rams offense seems to be a mere shell of its former self this season, it’s also worth considering that the Rams have had a really difficult stretch of opponents recently. The Pittsburgh pass defense has been playing substantially better since they added Minkah Fitzpatrick and the Bears and Ravens are among the best pass defenses in football. So while it’s easy to just say “don’t trust the Rams,” there’s certainly also reason to be a bit optimistic that things might turn around this week as the Rams head on the road to face one of the league’s worst pass defenses, the Arizona Cardinals.

Arizona has given up the most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks this season, including a league-most 29 touchdown passes with only six interceptions. They’ve conceded four straight 300-yard passing performances and they’ve also given up a total of 12 touchdown passes over that four-game stretch. Goff isn’t a particularly exciting play given that he’s struggled so much lately, but this might also be the perfect time to jump on the LA passing game in DFS.

With Goff playing so poorly, it should come as no surprise that the Rams pass catching weapons have been terrible as of late, but 10 targets to Cooper Kupp in Week 12 are something that we shouldn’t look past even though he was only able to convert those opportunities into 35 total yards. This week he gets an Arizona defense that has been absolutely decimated by opposing slot receivers this season, so Kupp is a very strong play and should be considered a WR1, especially in PPR formats.

Fellow wide receivers Brandon Cooks and Robert Woods should also be on fantasy radars as the matchup is intriguing, but it’s a little more difficult to trust them given that they’ve really disappointed as a whole this season. On a positive note, Woods has been targeted a total of 20 times over his past two games, so perhaps this is the week when he’s finally able to put those targets together and produce a WR1 game. We’ll rank him as a WR2 here, but there’s upside given the matchup. Cooks, meanwhile, is still a viable option if you’re looking for a Flex play, but he’s been held under 75 receiving yards in all but one game this season, while only scoring one touchdown, so don’t expect a massive performance. Still, he’s the most explosive of the bunch and does have the best big play ability.

The tight end position is terrible throughout the NFL so it’s not even all that disappointing that Gerald Everett has only been targeted three times over the past two weeks while Tyler Higbee saw five targets in Week 12 alone. Both players have serious touchdown upside this week against what is by far the worst fantasy defense against opposing tight ends. Arizona has given up 12 touchdowns in 11 games to the position this season - four more than any other team - and they just got done getting smacked by San Francisco’s backup tight end, Ross Dwelley, for two touchdowns in Week 11. At this point it’s a trend that we cannot ignore. Everett is easily the better option and has to be considered a pretty nice TE1, but those who are desperate at the position in deeper leagues could find do worse than Higbee as a sleeper play this week. It’s also worth noting that Everett has been banged up this week and is considered day-to-day, but he could potentially miss this game. If he does, make sure you move Higbee up into the bottom-end-TE1 range.

ARI FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.1
ARI FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.10
ARI FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.10
ARI FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.1

Running Game Thoughts: The Rams offense has been so bad and so unpredictable that even one of the league’s best fantasy players over the past few seasons, Todd Gurley, has failed to produce start-worthy numbers many times already this season. One of those times was this past week against the Ravens when Gurley was given just six carries, which he converted for only 22 rushing yards. He did add three receptions, but totaled negative three yards on those catches, so he really didn’t even salvage his fantasy day. Gurley entered that game after coming off of a 28-touch day - by far his biggest usage of the season - and now he’s coming off of his lowest-usage game. Certainly the massively negative game script didn’t help, but the Rams offense as a whole just seems to be in shambles.

Thankfully this week they get a bit of a break as they face the Cardinals who have been one of the league’s worst defenses overall this season. While they’re better against the run than they are the pass, Gurley is still in a nice spot against Arizona’s bottom-10-ranked fantasy run defense.

Gurley’s best bet for fantasy production remains his ability to convert near the goal line which he still seems to be doing fairly well this season. He should have more opportunities in the red zone this week, as well, as opposed to recent weeks where the Rams have faced significantly better defenses.

Value Meter:
QB2: Jared Goff
RB2: Todd Gurley (high end)
WR1: Cooper Kupp
WR2: Robert Woods
TE1: Gerald Everett, Tyler Higbee (if Everett is out)
Flex: Brandin Cooks
Bench: Malcolm Brown, Darrell Henderson, Josh Reynolds

Passing Game Thoughts: Rookie quarterback Kyler Murray went through a stretch where he failed to throw a touchdown in four of five games, but seems to be hitting his stride down the stretch as he’s given his fantasy owners three straight excellent fantasy performances. Murray is using his legs to prop up his fantasy production, but he’s also producing as a passer, having thrown seven touchdown passes over his past three games. Murray’s upside, along with his high floor due to his rushing ability, makes him a mid-range QB1 this week.

Murray’s increased productivity through the air has been great for his pass catchers. Wide receiver Christian Kirk is averaging nearly nine targets per game in the contests he’s played, so that type of opportunity, in an offense that is starting to perform better, makes him a good WR2 here in Week 13. Larry Fitzgerald, meanwhile, isn’t seeing quite enough volume to break into the WR2 or even WR3 range, but he’s still a decent Flex option in deeper PPR formats. Andy Isabella has shown some explosiveness, but he, like the other depth pass catchers in this offense, just don’t see enough playing time to be considered anything other than big play threats.

LAR FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.19
LAR FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.14
LAR FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.18
LAR FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.21

Running Game Thoughts: With both David Johnson and Chase Edmonds expected back on the field this week, the Cardinals offense appears to be headed toward a dreaded “three headed monster” type backfield. Kenyan Drake has actually been fairly productive since being traded to the Cardinals, but it’s going to be tough to trust he, or any of these backs, until we see more of what head coach Kliff Kingsbury will opt to do in terms of playing time. Drake is probably the best option given that Edmonds and Johnson are still likely hampered by their respective injuries, but don’t look at him as anything more than a Flex in this contest. He’s facing an Arizona defense that got torched for nearly 200 rushing yards by the Ravens running backs this past week, so there’s some upside, but the Arizona offensive line is not nearly as good as the one in Baltimore.

Value Meter:
QB1: Kyler Murray
WR2: Christian Kirk
Flex: Kenyan Drake, Larry Fitzgerald
Bench: David Johnson, Chase Edmonds, Andy Isabella

Prediction: Cardinals 24, Rams 20 ^ Top

Raiders @ Chiefs - (Caron)
Line: KC -10.0
Total: 51.0

Passing Game Thoughts: It was supposed to be at least a decent matchup in Week 12 for Derek Carr and the Oakland passing game, but Raiders could not have disappointed more than they did. Carr threw for just 127 yards in a blowout loss to the Jets while failing to throw a single touchdown pass. He also threw an interception, giving him his worst fantasy day of the season. Obviously this performance was awful and it’s often difficult to forgive players who just burned you, but this week he does get to face a Kansas City defense that ranks in the bottom 10 in the league in fantasy points given up to opposing quarterbacks.

Carr only threw for 198 yards and one touchdown with two interceptions against this defense back in Week 2 so we do need to be cautious and certainly Carr isn’t a great start, but there’s reason to be hopeful for his pass catching weapons, primarily wide receiver Tyrell Williams and tight end Darren Waller.

Williams caught five passes against the Chiefs when these teams met earlier this season, including a touchdown reception, and Hunter Renfrow will miss this week’s contest, so Williams should see an increased target share against a weaker-than-average Kansas City secondary. He hasn’t been nearly as productive in the second half of the season as he was in the first half, but he’s still worth putting in your lineup as a WR3 in this matchup.

Waller, on the other hand, is still a TE1 even though he’s been struggling as of late. We say this every week, but tight end is just a complete dumpster fire this season, so any player who’s consistently seeing a good number of targets is fantasy viable. Waller hasn’t caught a touchdown since back in Week 8, but he’s only failed to see at least five targets in one game this season. The Chiefs saw the Chargers’ tight end Hunter Henry targeted nine times against them this past week so clearly there are some deficiencies in covering that position, so keep Waller in your lineup with hopes of him getting back into the end zone.

KC FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.10
KC FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.1
KC FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.25
KC FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.13

Running Game Thoughts: Potential NFL rookie of the year Josh Jacobs was one of the major victims of the horrible performance by the Raiders offense this past week. Jacobs hadn’t been held under 10 PPR fantasy points in a game since all the way back in Week 3, but he was held to just 34 rushing yards and a single two-yard reception with no touchdowns in this past week’s pathetic loss to the Jets.

This week Jacobs will look to bounce back against a Chiefs defense that he rushed for 99 yards against in his second game as a pro earlier this season. Perhaps even more importantly, the Chiefs have been the league’s worst fantasy defense against running backs, including giving up five different 100-yard rushers. It would be nice to see Jacobs contributing more in the passing game, but that doesn’t seem like it’s a focus of the Oakland offense so don’t look for that. Still, he’s a threat to get to 100 or more rushing yards and is a good bet to score a touchdown this week against a Chiefs defense that has given up 13 total touchdowns to opposing running backs so far this season.

Value Meter:
QB2: Derek Carr
RB1: Josh Jacobs
WR3: Tyrell Williams
TE1: Darren Waller
Bench: Jalen Richard, DeAndre Washington, Zay Jones, Trevor Davis, Foster Moreau

Passing Game Thoughts: The Chiefs avoided a huge blow as it appears that Tyreek Hill will be back on the field after being knocked out of Kansas City’s Week 11 game with a hamstring injury. Hill took the bye week to get healthy and appears to be back to at least close to full speed as he’ll face Raiders defense that has given up the sixth-most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers. You wouldn’t be benching Hill anyway, but this is a particularly great matchup for him and he should be considered a high-end WR1.

Tight end Travis Kelce remains the top tight end in fantasy football and he’s now caught seven passes in each of his past three games, including touchdowns in back-to-back contests. We knew he was likely in for some positive touchdown regression after having caught just two touchdowns over his first nine games this season, so it’s no surprise to see him getting back into the end zone.

The other pass catching weapons in Kansas City are always a threat, but it’s very difficult to trust them given that they simply don’t see consistent targets come their way. Sammy Watkins, who is the No.2 wide receiver in the offense, has only been targeted more than five times in two games this season and that’s just not enough to make him a start-worthy option in anything other than deep seasonal fantasy leagues. The other pass catchers, including Mecole Hardman and Demarcus Robinson, often contribute at least one deep pass catch between the two of them, but that’s probably not enough to justify putting them in your lineup either.

Of course, all of this means that Patrick Mahomes should be in for a nice fantasy day and he’ll again be in the conversation to be the top-ranked fantasy quarterback here in Week 13.

OAK FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.3
OAK FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.11
OAK FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.6
OAK FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.4

Running Game Thoughts: With Damien Williams looking less than likely to play, the Kansas City backfield looks like it could be a split between veteran LeSean McCoy and second-year back Darrel Williams. McCoy was the top-scoring back for the team earlier this season but has seemingly fallen out of favor with the coaching staff after a few untimely fumbles. This has led the way for Darrel and Damien Williams to get some additional playing time, but perhaps more importantly, it has made this backfield significantly less enticing for fantasy purposes. We just don’t know which back - if any - is going to see consistent enough touches to justify putting them into our lineups. If it’s just McCoy and Darrel Williams then you can consider putting them in your lineup as a Flex, but it’s probably best to try to avoid this situation, especially if Damien Williams does play, given that it could then become a three-headed backfield.

Value Meter:
QB1: Patrick Mahomes
WR1: Tyreek Hill
TE1: Travis Kelce
Flex: LeSean McCoy, Darrel Williams, Sammy Watkins
Bench: Damien Williams, Mecole Hardman Demarcus Robinson

Prediction: Chiefs 28, Raiders 24 ^ Top

Chargers @ Broncos - (Caron)
Line: LAC -3.0
Total: 38.5

Passing Game Thoughts: With just four touchdown passes and eight interceptions over his past four games, it’s now gotten to the point that we can no longer trust Philip Rivers to be a QB1 for fantasy purposes. He was always surviving on borrowed time given his lack of mobility in this changed league, but Rivers’ passing ability seems to be significantly worse than what we’ve seen from him in the past.

Rivers’ lack of efficiency is affecting his receivers, of course, but Keenan Allen has been getting better down the stretch as he’s now caught eight passes in back-to-back games. Perhaps more important to note is that Rivers has struggled as of late, but that’s led to him relying even more heavily on Allen, as he’s been targeted 10 or more times in four of his past five games. That type of usage is great and would usually mean that a player is an obvious WR1, but Allen hasn’t very efficient with his targets and he’s facing a Denver defense that held him to just four catches for 18 yards when these teams played back in Week 5. We’ll still give him a WR2 ranking this week due to the potentially high target share, but don’t be surprised if he disappoints.

Fellow wide receiver Mike Williams is still on the injury report with a knee injury heading into this weekend’s contest, but he’s continued to be the team’s big play threat. He still hasn’t caught a touchdown this season which is crazy considering his red zone usage, unfortunately, but that could come at any time. The lack of touchdowns and lack of targets as a whole make Williams a dangerous start this week against a good Denver secondary. He did catch six passes for 64 yards against this defense so he’s not hopeless but leave him out of your lineup if you can.

Tight end Hunter Henry continues to be one of the elite producers at a horrible position and he’s now scored double-digit fantasy points in all but one game since he returned from injury. The Broncos are a middle-of-the-pack defense against opposing tight ends but Henry is an easy TE1 in this and really any matchup.

DEN FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.29
DEN FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.21
DEN FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.27
DEN FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.17

Running Game Thoughts: There are very few NFL backfields where more than one back is viable on a weekly basis, but the Chargers certainly have one of those. With Melvin Gordon seeing primary back touches and Austin Ekeler contributing as one of the league’s top passing down specialists, there’s a realistic opportunity for both players to have quality fantasy games in any contest.

The Broncos got ran all over by the Bills in Week 12 as the duo of Devin Singletary and Frank Gore rushed for 171 combined yards but they’ve been a decent defense as a whole against fantasy running backs so far this season.

One thing to look for in this game is whether or not the Broncos will significantly change their gameplan from the one they utilized against the Chargers when these teams played back in Week 5. In that contest, it was Austin Ekeler who gave fantasy owners a monster fantasy day as he caught a ridiculous 15 passes. Gordon was just coming back from his holdout so he didn’t see a full workload, but even he contributed four receptions in that game to go along with his 12 carries. It’d be pretty difficult for this duo to do that again, but both players are viable fantasy options here in Week 13.

Value Meter:
RB1: Melvin Gordon (low end)
RB2: Austin Ekeler
WR2: Keenan Allen
TE1: Hunter Henry
Bench: Philip Rivers, Mike Williams

Passing Game Thoughts: With second round draft pick Drew Lock stepping in, the Broncos will now be turning to their third quarterback this season, with their hopes set on Lock being their future franchise QB. The coaching staff hasn’t exactly shown much confidence in the young passer so far, but it’d be hard for him to be much worse than what the team has been dealing with.

Lock himself isn’t an option for fantasy purposes in his first start, so the real question is how the change behind center is going to affect the Denver pass catchers, particularly Courtland Sutton. Sutton has been a breakout receiver this season and has been dealing with an ankle injury as of late, but he did not show up on the team’s Week 13 injury report and now gets to play with the big-armed Lock. Sutton is a big play receiver but he’s also been targeted at least six times in every game this season so there’s a good chance that things don’t get any worse for him. If anything, the odds are that he’ll have more of an opportunity to make plays down the field if the Broncos opt to take advantage of the cannon attached to Lock’s shoulder.

The only other Denver pass catcher who should be looked at for fantasy purposes is tight end Noah Fant. Fant delivered a breakout performance in Week 9 with his 115-yard, one touchdown performance against the Browns, but has since caught just seven passes for 74 yards over his past two contests. He will be playing against a Chargers secondary that has mostly been good against opposing tight ends this week, but Kansas City’s Travis Kelce did beat them for seven catches, 92 yards and a touchdown recently. Fant himself was held to one catch for six yards when these teams played back in Week 5, but he’s playing substantially more snaps now and the offense seems to be completely different so don’t put too much stock into that. Fant is a borderline starter at TE but he could make it into lineups just based on perceived target volume alone given that the Broncos really only have one established pass catcher on the roster right now.

LAC FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.26
LAC FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.8
LAC FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.30
LAC FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.20

Running Game Thoughts: The Broncos running backs have been struggling mightily as of late as they’ve had a number of difficult matchups in a row. It’s not entirely hopeless, however, as this week they will be facing a Los Angeles Chargers defense that has given up the eighth-most fantasy points to opposing running backs so far this season. In fact, the duo of Phillip Lindsay (114 yards) and Royce Freeman (61 yards) smashed this defense for a combined 175 rushing yards when these teams played back in Week 5. With a rookie quarterback getting his first NFL start behind center, look for the Broncos to rely heavily on their duo of impressive young backs. That could mean 15-plus touches for both players, but likely at least 25 touches between the two of them, which should result in some solid fantasy production.

Lindsay is the better back to own still and should be considered an RB2, but Freeman could be usable for those who are struggling down the stretch and searching for a running back to fill in their Flex spot.

Value Meter:
RB2: Phillip Lindsay
WR2: Courtland Sutton
TE1: Noah Fant (low-end)
Flex: Royce Freeman
Bench: Drew Lock, Tim Patrick, Daesean Hamilton

Prediction: Chargers 20, Broncos 17 ^ Top

Patriots @ Texans - (Green)
Line: NE -3.0
Total: 45.0

Passing Game Thoughts: This may sound blasphemous, but Tom Brady hasn't had a very good season. He beat up on some truly inferior competition early and has looked anything but elite against the decent teams on his schedule. That includes Week 12's messy affair with Dallas where he completed less than half of his throws for just 190 yards and a TD. After throwing seven TDs and no INTs in his first three games, Brady has tossed eight touchdowns and five picks in eight games since.

Outside of Julian Edelman, there aren't any difference makers at receiver. The likes of Mohamed Sanu (ankle) and Phillip Dorsett (concussion) have specific skill sets that can benefit an offense, but neither will consistently move the needle for fantasy owners. First-round pick N'Keal Harry caught his first touchdown pass last week but didn't have another catch. Fellow rookie Jakobi Myers (4-74-0) had a nice game, but he's unlikely to be a factor when Sanu and Dorsett are active. It's a bit of a mess.

On paper, the Texans present an opportunity for Brady and company to get back on track. The weather conditions should be nice, and the banged-up Texans secondary has allowed 259.3 passing yards per game, which is 25th in the NFL. I don't think Brady is a must-play any longer, but I wouldn't shy away from him this week. Other than Edelman, though, I don't think any of Brady's targets make a reliable fantasy option.

HOU FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.6
HOU FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.12
HOU FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.12
HOU FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.22

Running Game Thoughts: Opportunities haven't been all that plentiful for Sony Michel this season with Rex Burkhead eating into his snaps. The offense flowed through the Georgia product last week, though, as he carried the ball 20 times for 85 yards. It was his fourth game of 20 or more carries. In passing situations he defers to James White, who has experienced a major downturn of his own: over his last four games, White has just 11 receptions -- he had 30 in his previous four.

Houston is 17th against the run (108 yards per game) and has had a little extra rest to heal up after dealing with Indy's Jonathan Williams last Thursday night. It's obviously not the same group minus J.J. Watt, but the Pats have been so inconsistent with their RB usage it's hard to strongly endorse anyone in that backfield as more than an RB3.

Value Meter:
QB1: Tom Brady (low-end)
RB3: James White
RB3: Sony Michel (low-end)
WR1: Julian Edelman
Bench: Mohamed Sanu (ankle), N'Keal Harry

Passing Game Thoughts: Deshaun Watson had some early-season MVP buzz, but he's fallen by the wayside as Lamar Jackson and Russell Wilson have seemingly made it a two-man race. Watson is still a top guy, throwing for 298 yards on 19 completions last Thursday to go along with two TDs. Watson was held in check the last time he faced New England back in Week 1 of 2018 as he had only 176 yards passing.

Watson's fortunes improved markedly last week when Will Fuller returned, giving the team the deep threat it so desperately needs. In his first game back, Fuller caught seven passes for 140 yards and opened things up for DeAndre Hopkins, who had six grabs, 94 yards and two scores. With Fuller back, Kenny Stills and Keke Coutee were complete non-factors, and I don't expect that to change as long as Fuller is healthy.

When you factor in talent and coaching, New England sits atop the heap defensively. They rank second in the NFL in passing yards allowed (158 per game) and allow a league-low 10.6 points per game. Stephen Gilmore is getting a lot of press after holding Amari Cooper without a catch last week, and he could shadow Hopkins, depressing Nuk's value in the process. Still, even against a tough Pats squad, I'm keeping Watson, Hopkins and Fuller in my lineup.

NE FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.32
NE FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.32
NE FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.32
NE FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.27

Running Game Thoughts: Carlos Hyde continues to put together a solid season, rushing 16 times for 67 yards against the Colts in Week 12. He'll face the eighth-ranked run defense this week, which is fresh on the heels of facing Ezekiel Elliott, who ran for 86 yards on 21 carries. Hyde lacks Elliott's explosiveness, but I'd still expect Hyde to get quite a few touches to keep pressure off of Watson.

Duke Johnson's role has dried up a little, having caught two or fewer passes in eight of his last 10 games. He's also yet to tally 10 rushing attempts in any single game this year. Despite a healthy per-touch average, Johnson isn't getting enough touches to play in most formats.

Value Meter:
QB1: Deshaun Watson (low-end)
RB3: Carlos Hyde
Flex: Duke Johnson (low-end)
WR1: DeAndre Hopkins
WR3: Will Fuller
Bench: Kenny Stills

Prediction: Patriots 24, Texans 21 ^ Top

Eagles at Dolphins - (Katz)
Line: PHI -9.5
Total: 45.0

Passing Game Thoughts: Carson Wentz is coming off his worst performance of the season; his first game below double digit fantasy points. It marked his fifth consecutive week finishing as QB17 or worse. With that being said, he is impossible to fade against the hapless Dolphins, who allow 22.4 fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. Wentz should be getting Alshon Jeffery back as he is practicing in full this week. That would be a huge boost for Wentz, who dealt with having Jordan Matthews as his top receiver last week.

The Dolphins allow 20 fantasy points per game to opposing WR1s making Jeffery a must start. Zach Ertz is also a must start as the depletion of the Eagles’ pass catching corps has boosted Ertz’s target share back to 2018 levels. Ertz had only one double digit target game over his first eight games. He has at least 11 targets in three straight games. Ertz is apparently dealing with a hamstring strain and did not practice on Wednesday or Thursday. If Ertz can’t play, Dallas Goedert is a locked in top five option and continues to see over 80% of the snaps. Even Nelson Agholor would be in play as a deeper play if he plays through a questionable tag.

MIA FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.4
MIA FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.4
MIA FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.4
MIA FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.15

Running Game Thoughts: Jordan Howard still has yet to be cleared for contact, but that could happen at any moment. If Howard remains out, Miles Sanders will continue to play nearly 90% of the snaps. He is the only Eagles’ running back of consequence. The touches have not correlated to production, but against the Dolphins, in a game the Eagles project to see significantly positive game script as 10 point favorites, Sanders should thrive. Only the Bengals allow more rushing yards per game than the Dolphins’ 148.2 at a 4.7 yards per carry clip. Sanders has also seen fairly consistent targets out of the backfield with at least three targets in all but two games this season. In the event Howard does get cleared, he would be a locked in RB2 with touchdown upside and relegate Sanders to just a flex.

Value Meter:
QB1: Carson Wentz (mid-range)
RB2: Miles Sanders (high end)
WR2: Alshon Jeffery (mid-range)
TE1: Zach Ertz (high end, if he plays)
TE1: Dallas Goedert (low end)
Bench: Jordan Howard (stinger), Nelson Agholor

Passing Game Thoughts: Ryan Fitzpatrick only has three QB1 performances this season and although the Eagles began the season as a poor pass defense, they have played much better of late. The Eagles contained Russell Wilson last week and I don’t have high hopes for there to be any Fitzmagic this week. DeVante Parker, however, has become somewhat of a must start. He has finished as a WR3 or better in eight straight contests. The Eagles allow 15.3 fantasy points per game to opposing WR1s, but a lot of that came before Jalen Mills returned from injury. Parker will have to deal with Mills and his 48.3% catch rate allowed, eighth in the league. Mike Gesicki led all tight ends in routes run last week, which is something to hang your hat on if you need a tight end streamer. The Eagles allow just 6.8 fantasy points per game to tight ends, but Gesicki could be the de facto WR2 with the Dolphins dealing with injuries to their receivers. Allen Hurns is not a fantasy option.

PHI FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.21
PHI FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.25
PHI FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.7
PHI FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.26

Running Game Thoughts: It is noble of Brian Flores to stick with Kalen Ballage as his starter, fully embracing the tank, but the Bengals have built a near insurmountable lead on the first overall pick. There’s not much to say about this rushing attack. Patrick Laird is next in line for touches, but we’re talking about a backup running back on the Dolphins. All these guys can remain on waivers.

Value Meter:
WR3: DeVante Parker
TE2: Mike Gesicki (viable streamer)
Bench: Ryan Fitzpatrick, Kalen Ballage Patrick Laird

Prediction: Eagles 31, Dolphins 13 ^ Top

Vikings @ Seahawks - (Caron)
Line: SEA -3.0
Total: 50.0

Passing Game Thoughts: The season started terribly for Kirk Cousins, but things have certainly gotten better as of late for the Vikings quarterback. Cousins has thrown an impressive 16 touchdowns over his past six starts, including three 300-yard games over that stretch. What’s even more impressive is that he’s done most of that without star wide receiver Adam Thielen. Certainly Stefon Diggs has stepped up admirably, turning in four games of 120 or more receiving yards over this stretch, but there is an outside chance that Thielen plays, which would definitely be a boost for this offense. Diggs remains an low-end WR1 while Thielen is out but he would join Thielen as a WR2 here in Week 13 if they’re both active.

Cousins’ ascension back into the QB1 conversation has been something to behold because his ranking still seems to be suppressed throughout the industry. The Seahawks defense is nothing to be worried about from a fantasy standpoint and Cousins has been producing at an elite level as of late, so if your usual QB is struggling or in a very difficult matchup, don’t be afraid to throw Cousins into your lineup this week.

Other Minnesota pass catching weapons, including wide receiver Olabisi Johnson as well as tight end Irv Smith, are probably players that you’ll want to avoid for the most part this week. Kyle Rudolph is another borderline startable tight end who is essentially a touchdown-or-bust type of player, but he’s the position is bad enough that he’s in the same tier with about a dozen other tight ends.

SEA FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.12
SEA FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.22
SEA FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.20
SEA FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.5

Running Game Thoughts: Dalvin Cook’s 26 rushing yards against the Broncos this past week was his worst performance of the season, but the fact that he added a touchdown on the ground along with five catches for 31 yards is a great demonstration of why he is one of the safest fantasy players in the league this season. Cook has not yet finished below 15 PPR fantasy points in any game this season and he’s score at least one touchdown in all but two games.

The Vikings have been leaning much more heavily on their passing game as of late, but that doesn’t necessarily mean something bad for Cook. Cook is one of the more active bell cow running backs in the league in the passing game and he’s caught at least four passes in four straight contests for the Vikings.

Cook is dealing with a chest injury that limited him in practice throughout the week but it appears as though he’ll be ready to play on Sunday. Still, make sure you’re rostering Alexander Mattison in your league if he’s available just in case you end up having to make the last minute change.

Value Meter:
QB1: Kirk Cousins
RB1: Dalvin Cook
WR1: Stefon Diggs (low end, if Thielen is out)
WR2: Stefon Diggs (if Thielen plays), Adam Thielen
TE1: Kyle Rudolph (low end)
Bench: Alexander Mattison, Olabisi Johnson, Laquon Treadwell, Irv Smith

Passing Game Thoughts: While Russell Wilson continues to be mentioned in the MVP conversation, and deservedly so, his fantasy production has taken a significant dip over his past five games. Aside from his huge Week 9 performance against the Buccaneers, Wilson has failed to reach even 17 points in four of his past five games. The biggest reason for that is a lack of touchdown scoring, which can be fluky, but he’s also being hamstrung by his team’s coaching staff, who only let him attempt 20 passes against the Falcons in Week 8 and 25 passes against the Eagles this past week.

Wilson is still a great fantasy QB but he doesn’t have a great matchup here in Week 13 against a Vikings defense that has given up just five passing touchdowns over their past four games. Of course, three of those games were against some pretty pathetic quarterbacks, but it’s still worth considering that this isn’t an excellent matchup for Wilson and the Seattle passing game. Still, he’s a mid-level QB1 given his legs and his propensity to produce when his team needs him most.

Tyler Lockett will look to get back into the WR1 conversation after two weeks of poor performance. This came following back-to-back 100-yard performances in Weeks 8 and 9, however, so look at these past two games as more of a blip on the radar, partially due to his shin injury, rather than a trend. Lockett is still a low-end WR1 with a high floor and plenty of upside.

Josh Gordon remains a player who probably shouldn’t even be owned in most fantasy leagues as he rides the bench behind rookie D.K. Metcalf. Metcalf has been a great find by the Seahawks and he’s now seen at least five targets in six straight games. Metcalf is always a big play and/or touchdown threat in any game given Wilson’s desire to push the ball down the field. Feel free to roll with him as your WR3 or even low-end WR2 if you’re in need.

Tight end Jacob Hollister is another one of the “boom or bust” tight ends, but he plays in an offense with a quarterback who looks to the tight end position quite often in the red zone. The Broncos targeted their tight ends 14 times this past week against the Vikings, one of which results in a touchdown, so there’s reason to believe that Hollister will find the end zone again here in Week 13 after failing to do so in his most recent game.

MIN FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.20
MIN FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.26
MIN FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.5
MIN FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.23

Running Game Thoughts: Seattle drafting Rashaad Penny in the first round of the 2018 NFL Draft didn’t make much sense at the time, but it made even less sense when the team proceeded to give him practically no touches as a rookie, then through most of his second season, in favor of former seventh-round pick Chris Carson who was already on the roster when they drafted Penny.

Things might finally be coming together for Penny, however, as Carson took just eight carries this past week in the Seahawks’ eight-point victory over the Eagles. Carson’s previous season low for carries was 15, but he sat on the sidelines while Penny took 15 carries - by far his most of the 2019 season - in that same game. Penny was also quite productive with his touches as he converted those 14 carries for 129 yards and a touchdown. Of course, the one touchdown run of 58 yards accounted for almost half of his yards, but even if you take away that carry, he still averaged well over five yards per carry on the day.

We don’t know that Penny has officially taken over as the lead back in Seattle, but it’s worth noting that head coach Pete Carroll told reporters that the team plans on seeing “if we can get more out of [Penny]” going forward.

A full on committee is the worst case scenario for this backfield and it would likely mean that the duo looks similar to the Broncos’ backfield of Phillip Lindsay and Royce Freeman, with neither player being a real RB1 and both having the capability of producing as an RB2 on a given week.

For now, we’ll move Carson down to being an RB2 in this difficult matchup against the Vikings, while we are a little more cautious with Penny, ranking him as a Flex play.

Value Meter:
QB1: Russell Wilson
RB2: Chris Carson
WR1: Tyler Lockett (low-end)
WR3: D.K. Metcalf
TE1: Jacob Hollister (low-end)
Flex: Rashaad Penny
Bench: Josh Gordon, Jaron Brown, David Moore

Prediction: Seahawks 27, Vikings 23 ^ Top