One week after passing for 469 yards and six TDs, Tagovailoa
(back) attempted just 18 passes in a game in which he was temporarily
removed due to a “back” injury. He’s not a sure
thing to play Thursday night, but at this point it looks like
he’ll be able to answer the bell. Even assuming he does,
the southpaw won’t be at 100 percent, and Cincinnati is
tied for the fewest touchdown passes allowed in the league (2).
His upside prevents him from entering the fade realm, but you
should look long and hard at your options before rolling with
Tagovailoa here.
Through three games, the combination of Edmonds and Mostert have
split the snaps almost evenly with Edmonds logging 93 (of 174
total) and Mostert 88. The numbers have been modest for both,
however, with neither player having reached the 80-yard mark on
the season. Edmonds gave fantasy owners a little love in Week
3 when he ran for two scores, but against a Bengals defense yielding
just 86 yards per game on the ground neither should be viewed
as more than a shaky flex.
MIA FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.1
MIA FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.16
MIA FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.15
MIA FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.3
Only the Ravens (353.3) have allowed more passing yards per game
than Miami (297.7), and the interceptions that have been such
an integral part of the Dolphins defense in recent years have
been absent. Plus, keep in mind that Miami played 90 snaps against
the Bills in Week 3 amid scorching temperatures. With a short
turnaround it’s hard to imagine the Dolphins won’t
be dealing with fatigue sooner than later. This is one week you
definitely want Joe Shiesty in your lineup.
Boyd is coming off a 100-yard, 1 TD game against the Jets which
may be tempting to chase, but so far this season he hasn’t
seen the targets (14 in three games) to make you feel comfortable
giving him the starting nod. He’s played on 77% of the snaps
this season, more than Tee Higgins (56%) but is obviously third
in the pecking order for Burrow when all three receivers are healthy.
The Dolphins are middle of the pack (15th) against fantasy wideouts
making this a middling matchup. Boyd can be used as a Flex in
a pinch but you likely have better options.
Hurst (groin) opened his Bengals career with consecutive five-catch
efforts. Last week he posted just one grab after reports came
out that he’d aggravated a groin injury in practice. He
played just 26 snaps. Down from 75 in Week 1 and 57 in Week 2.
With only four days between games, it’s unlikely Hurst will
be ready to handle a full workload on Thursday Night Football.
Stay away from Hurst in this one.
Mattison is averaging nearly 4.5 yards per carry and over 9.0
yards per reception. With RB1 Dalvin Cook nursing a shoulder injury,
Mattison is in line for a bump in volume this week. Cook missed
practice Wednesday, but did participate on Thursday. I’d
be surprised if he doesn’t play on Sunday but even if he
does, look for Mattison to spell the starter more regularly this
week. These Saints are a tough bunch on defense, so the yards
won’t come easy, but he’s a sneaky RB2 choice this
week and could have some low end RB1 value if Cook ends up not
being able to go.
Thielen’s targets, catches, and yards have steadily improved
every week, and last week he even got in the end zone. As teams
begin to focus on taking away fellow wideout Justin Jefferson,
Thielen could continue to see more volume. In theory, K.J. Osborn
could cut into that plan as he did last week (led the team with
73 yards). However, more than two-thirds of his yardage total
came on the Vikes’ final drive. I don’t think he’s a week-in,
week-out threat. Tap Thielen as a WR2 against a Saints defense
that just does not give up many yards on the ground.
Smith is garnering a lot of mid-range TE2 consideration, but
this Saints defense is allowing just 2.1 fantasy points per game
to the postion, second-fewest in the league. With 14 targets over
the last two games, Smith will be on New Orleans’ radar.
Expect them to shut that weapon down.
MIN FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.13
MIN FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.4
MIN FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.13
MIN FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.14
Olave now has 14 catches on 26 targets for over 250 yards over
the last two games. Last week featured a little more in the way
of catch and run, rather than the desperation downfield heaves
of Week 2, which should help in terms of QB Jameis Winston’s completion
percentage. And, with Michael Thomas and Jarvis Landry both leaving
last week’s game with injuries, Olave figures to continue to get
the lion’s share of Winston’s attention.
While Kamara is averaging over 4.0 yards per carry, he has just
24 carries over two games, and has only five catches for 19 yards.
He’s also yet to find the end zone this season. He’s been banged
up from the jump with a rib issue that caused him to miss Week
2, Mark Ingram appears to be stealing goal line work, and QB Jameis
Winston, playing with back, knee, and ankle issues of his own,
is a much better downfield thrower than he is on the short to
intermediate stuff Kamara thrives on. It all leads to Kamara not
nearly being the offensive threat we assumed he would be in this
offense.
Johnson went from surprise sleeper TE in Week 2 (4 catches for
40 yards) to not catching the only target ANY Saints tight end
saw a week later. His Week 2 jump probably can be attributed to
Alvin Kamara’s absence, and should be dropped in all formats as
he now appears to be platooning with both Taysom Hill, Nick Vannett,
and even Adam Trautman.
The Texans’ defense has been strong through the opening weeks
of the season, but they have allowed 25 fantasy points per game
to opposing RB’s. Ekeler has 17 catches for over 100 yards over
the last two games. He’ll continue to get a high volume of balls
thrown his way as long as QB Justin Herbert continues to work
through his rib injury, and as long as Keenan Allen is working
less than full strength.
Allen is dealing with a hamstring injury and listed as questionable
for this game, but he practiced on a limited basis on Wednesday
and Thursday. When he’s healthy, he’s one of the best
possession receivers in the NFL, and maybe the best 3rd down WR
ever. If he’s healthy this week, he may be just what Justin
Herbert and company need, allowing the Chargers to extend drives.
He’s a solid WR2 who will score on volume.
With Austin Ekeler earning his pay mostly as a receiver out of
the backfield, Michel was expected to be the grinder in this offense,
and I suppose that may still be true. But he has just seven, four,
and five carries in each of the first three games for a paltry
2.9 yards per carry. He’s a non-factor until Ekeler goes
down with an injury.
LAC FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.15
LAC FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.7
LAC FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.6
LAC FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.20
Pierce seems to have permanently taken over as the RB1 in Houston.
He has 35 carries in the last two games and is averaging almost
4.5 yards per carry. With QB Davis Mills and WR Brandin Cooks
fading, and injuries mounting along the Chargers D-line, I’m anticipating
a heavy dose of Pierce, who has the ability to be a bruising back
and a guy who can keep this game close enough to give the Texans
a chance. If he scores, it’s a bonus for this RB2.
Cooks is essentially the only viable target for Davis Mills in
this lineup. The problem is, everyone else has figured that out
as well and defenses are playing like it. Cooks’ numbers
have steadily declined week by week. Despite that, he holds minimal
value due just to the fact that there’s no one here to compete
for targets, but defenses will role to him and force Mills to
win with his second WR.
We had some hope that Mills would make the big Year 1 to Year
2 jump in talent, smarts, and experience. He hasn’t, at
least not through the first three weeks of the season. His numbers
are down almost across the board and he’s completing just
57% with just three TD’s to two INT’s.
Montgomery left Week 3 with a knee injury and missed practice
Thursday so his status will be worth watching on Friday. If he
misses this game, then Herbert will be locked into a volume roll
on an offense that refuses to throw the ball. Chicago is rushing
at a 70% clip, averaging 35 rushing attempts per game, the most
in the league. The Giants have allowed the 12th-most fantasy points
to the position. If you’re in a 14-team league, you can
consider playing Herbert even if Montgomery is active.
The Bears passing game is non-existent which has rendered the
entire group useless for fantasy lineups. Fields has thrown for
121, 70 and 106 yards in this first three games and hasn’t
thrown a passing TD since Week 1. Chicago is averaging 54 plays
per game (league average 66) and spend only 30 percent of their
time throwing the ball. It’s hard to compile stats in this
offensive scenario and given the low game total (39.5) it doesn’t
make sense to predict a turnaround here. The Giants have given
up the 5th fewest fantasy points to wide receivers and no receiver
has found the endzone against them.
CHI FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.22
CHI FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.13
CHI FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.21
CHI FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.21
It’s tough to find much to be excited about within this
Giants offense other than Saquon Barkley, but if there’s
one player who fantasy owners should at least be taking notice
of, it’s quarterback Daniel Jones. Jones and the Giants
pass catchers failed to connect for a single touchdown against
the Cowboys in Week 3, but Jones did something that’s arguably
even more exciting - he got back to running the ball. Nine times
for 79 yards, in fact, allowing him to finish with a respectable
17.7-point fantasy day even though he threw an interception at
the end of the game. No, he shouldn’t be in most starting
lineups, but those who’ve lost a quarterback to injury or
anyone playing in a Superflex/2QB league should be considering
Jones as long as he’s going to continue to run the ball
this often.
Fade: Giants WRs
Sterling Shepard had been turning heads early this year, but his
season is now over following a torn ACL in Week 3. While this
means additional playing time for the other Giants receivers including
Richie James, David Sills, Darius Slayton, Kadarius Toney, Wan’Dale
Robinson, and yes (gag) Kenny Golladay; the truth is that we just
don’t know which of these players - if any - are going to
play significantly more snaps and get more opportunities. We should
be paying close attention this week, especially if Toney and Robinson
are active, but don’t get caught up in the “somebody
has to catch the ball” narrative this week.
Surprisingly, Lockett (21-211-0) has been a steadier producer
than Metcalf (16-135-1) this year, even though the latter remains
(marginally) in the no-brainer category for at least a bit longer.
Known primarily as a hit-or-miss deep threat when Russell Wilson
was at the helm, Lockett has caught nine balls in each of his
last two games as more of a chain mover -- he is averaging a career-low
10.0 yards per catch thus far. The Lions have struggled greatly
on defense, allowing a league-high 31 points per game, and ranking
25th against the pass. Pencil Lockett in as a solid WR3 with upside.
Smith has primarily been a game manager throughout his career,
but he passed for 325 yards and a pair of touchdowns last Sunday.
The Lions are going to put points on the board, and they’ve
shown that when they push out to sizable leads the defense is
going to give their opponent a chance to get back in the game.
With that in mind, don’t be shocked if Smith is able to
cobble together some unusually high fantasy value in Week 4, even
if some of that production comes in garbage time. Granted, it’d
be a risk to rely on Smith as your QB1, but this is one week where
it’s at least defensible.
Many expected a timeshare between Walker, a second-round pick,
and Rashaad Penny. Thus far the rookie has played sparingly. In
Week 3, Penny logged 49 snaps to Walker’s nine -- that was six
fewer than DeeJay Dallas. Detroit’s leaky run defense (142.3 rushing
yards per game allowed; 27th) creates the possibility of a big
game for Seattle’s ground attack, but Walker simply isn’t getting
enough chances to be playable.
SEA FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.17
SEA FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.6
SEA FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.30
SEA FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.8
With Swift (shoulder) already battling injuries, Williams tallied
22 combined touches against Minnesota in Week 3, turning them
into 107 yards and a pair of TDs. With Swift out, expect a heavy
dose of Williams. The physical back is tied with Cleveland’s Nick
Chubb for the league lead in rushing scores (4), and the Seahawks
have had no answers for opposing backs this season -- only Houston
has allowed more rushing yards than Seattle. Williams is a strong
flex that moves to fringe RB2 territory if Swift can’t go.
Goff was solid against the Vikings, but it wasn’t enough
as the Lions went scoreless in the fourth quarter while coughing
up a 24-14 lead. The former No. 1 overall pick ended his day with
277 yards, 1 TD, and 1 INT. Even with Detroit racking up the points,
Goff has only authored one decent fantasy day in three starts.
With Seattle’s primary struggles coming against the run,
Goff could slide into a complementary role this Sunday. Then again,
if Swift sits, Goff could be the driving force. He’s a risk/reward
play.
Kirk has been a bright spot in the Jags offense notching six
catches in all three games and leading the team with 27 targets.
He’s run hot on touchdowns scoring three times (twice against
IND in Week 2) and leads all Jags receivers with a 91% snap share.
He’s certainly delivered on his draft capital (ADP: WR41)
as he currently sits as the WR6 in PPR leagues. Kirk may see a
good bit of Darius Slay in this matchup and Jacksonville has been
a little more run-heavy than most teams, ranking 21st in passes
per game. However, in a game they might be trailing most of the
day, I like Kirk to at least deliver a WR2 performance.
Speaking of running hot on touchdowns, Robinson has scored four
times already (3 rush, 1 rec) and has found the endzone in every
game. How’s that for consistency? Shaking off the effects of an
Achilles injury, Robinson has begun the season as the lead back
for the Jags playing on 57% of the snaps thus far compared to
44% for Travis Etienne. Robinson has also out-touched Etienne
57 to 34. The Eagles have already allowed four rushing TDs to
running backs but sit in the middle of the pack in yardage allowed.
The potential game script doesn’t favor a heavy dose of running
for Jacksonville, but if Robinson ends up as a solid RB2 at weeks
end, I won’t be surprised.
The on-going theme of TE being a dumpster fire in fantasy football
continues as outside of a few players at the top of the position,
there isn’t a lot to get excited about. Engram is one of many
tight ends lumped in bucket of hope and wish while fantasy owners
pray they’re not facing Mark Andrews or Travis Kelce. Engram’s
12 catches for 83 scoreless yards currently ranks him 15th at
the position overall, but just 26th in FPT/G. Translation: There
are plenty of TE considerations on a weekly basis an Engram is
just one of them.
JAC FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.18
JAC FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.21
JAC FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.11
JAC FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.27
Often times we hear frustrating coachspeak where they say something
along the lines of, “Yeah, we need to get that guy involved”
and then it’s back to more of the same the very next week.
That certainly hasn’t been the case regarding DeVonta Smith.
Since his zero-catch Week 1 stinker, Smith has now been targeted
19 times, catching 15 passes for 249 yards and a touchdown over
his past two contests. He’s now set to face a Jaguars defense
that has already given up five receiving touchdowns to opposing
wide receivers this season. Sure, A.J. Brown remains the alpha
in the offense, but Smith is separating himself amongst WR2s this
season and he’s a must-start in this one.
A lot of fantasy experts predicted that Miles Sanders would have
already lost his job at this point in the season, but that simply
hasn’t been the case. While he was only able to produce
5.4 points this past week, Sanders actually played a season-high
59 percent of the Eagles snaps and he’s now touched the
ball at least 15 times in all three games. With the Philadelphia
offense moving the ball as effectively as it is and the RB position
as banged up as it is, Sanders is a borderline RB2/Flex play this
week.
Dallas Goedert is another in the long line of “meh” at tight
end after Travis Kelce and Mark Andrews, but at least he’s been
producing at a fairly decent pace this season. He’s the TE6 in
PPR and he’s seen at least four targets in all three of the Eagles
games. Unfortunately, he’s not a lock as a starter this week as
he’s facing a Jacksonville defense that has actually been good
against opposing tight ends so far this season, having allowed
the sixth-fewest points to the position thus far. This includes
games against decent tight ends in Gerald Everett and Logan Thomas.
We had preseason intentions of using Gainwell as a Flex option
in PPR leagues but after three games the Eagles backup RB has
a grand total of 10 carries and 3 receptions. Not great. Playing
on only 29% of the snaps, the usage just isn’t there. Even Boston
Scott (16%) is failing to make an impact. Miles Sanders is playing
twice as many snaps and is the only running back up for consideration
on the team and until we see a change in the running back rotation
or an injury occurs.
This will be a tough matchup to analyze since, barring any setbacks,
the Jets will be turning the offense over to Zach Wilson (knee)
after veteran Joe Flacco started the first three games. The thinking
here is that the team will want to feature the run more with Wilson,
especially after a month-plus layoff, and that means more touches
for Hall. It’s a coin flip between Hall (213 total yards, 1 TD)
and Michael Carter (196 yards, 0 TDs), but the rookie has been
a little more potent, so he gets the nod. Plug Hall in as an RB3.
As noted, the insertion of Wilson should mean a heavier emphasis
on the ground game, at least in his first couple of starts, and
that could lead to more work for Carter. He has seven more touches
than Hall on the year, but he’s done less with them, so
his outlook is a bit fuzzier. Still, with the Steelers ranking
28th in the league against the run (142.7 yards allowed per game),
there could be enough production to create two viable RB plays
for the Jets. Consider Carter a decent flex with some upside.
More running means less passing in my hypothetical gameplan,
and from there it makes sense that Wilson, who hasn’t taken a
regular season snap with his namesake, might not have the same
level of chemistry as someone like Elijah Moore. Wilson has been
the team’s top receiver with Flacco at the helm, but it looks
like a good week to at least temper your expectations for the
rookie.
NYJ FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.14
NYJ FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.10
NYJ FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.10
NYJ FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.19
Given the sad state of tight end play in the fantasy world, Freiermuth
is awfully close to being a no brainer, even if his production
has been middling. He’s a big, safe target, which generally appeals
to Mitchell Trubisky, whose leash must be growing shorter by the
week. To their credit, the Jets have held up well against opposing
tight ends, including Baltimore’s Mark Andrews back in Week 1,
but any defense allowing 27 points per game isn’t one to be avoided.
Claypool’s receiving numbers have ticked up a bit each game so
far, and he has shown the ability to make things happen as a runner,
too. Although he’s not getting a ton of work with six targets
in each game this season, there at least seems to be a plan in
place to get him the ball X number of times per game -- something
you can’t say at this point for George Pickens. Claypool is a
desperation flex candidate.
Hunt is averaging three catches per game, which we expected in
his 3rd down receiving role. What has been surprising is his 12
carries per game and 4.2 yards per carry. He’s averaging 50 rushing
yards per game without cutting into Chubb’s work, which is all
part of the plan to control possession with Jacoby Brissett at
QB. Until Deshaun Watson gets under center, look for Cleveland
to run the ball…A LOT. HC Kevin Stefanski seems intent on that,
and the two-back sets with both players in the backfield has been
a boon for Hunt. He’s a high end RB2 right now, and if Chubb should
go down, he’s a high ceiling handcuff, especially in PPR leagues.
Cooper is coming off back-to-back 100-yard games and two straight
games with a touchdown. So why is he here? Because I don’t
believe he can do it three games in a row. Not even against the
Falcons. Week 3 actually marked Cooper’s first consecutive
100-yard efforts since 2016. That’s remarkable for a player
of his pedigree. Brissett seems to have developed some chemistry
with Cooper, and I think he could certainly post some positive
numbers. But even in a strong showing last week, he still had
two significant drops. You just never know with Amari Cooper.
Peoples-Jones went 6-60 receiving in Week 1 and hasn’t been heard
from since. He has one catch on three targets over the last two
weeks and doesn’t seem poised for a bump anytime soon. The Browns
are not taking a lot of shots down the field in this Jacoby Brissett-led
attack, and as the deep threat in this lineup, he’s probably shelf
worthy about now.
CLE FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.12
CLE FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.20
CLE FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.9
CLE FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.23
Patterson is defying age, and he’s doing it at the toughest
position. He’s got over 300 rushing yards in three games
and is averaging 16 carries per game. Not bad for a guy they said
would be moving back to more of his natural receiving position.
I say ride it while it lasts. He’s a playmaker with the
ball in his hands, but I don’t think he’ll still be
surviving in this role come Weeks 8-10.
Mariota has been inconsistent at best and downright non-productive
at his worst. At the beginning of the season, I wouldn’t have
picked this as a good matchup game. But the Browns defense ranks
in the bottom third of the league in fantasy points allowed to
QB’s and have just seven sacks. They could get right against this
offensive line, but Mariota’s running ability could become a sneaky
weapon, especially with Myles Garrett, Jadeveon Clowney, and fellow
DL Taven Bryan banged up.
Edwards was a healthy scratch last week and has just one catch
over the last two games. He looks to be completely off the Falcons
radar, especially when he playing behind guys like Olamide Zaccheaus
and KhaDarel Hodge.
While the Titans talk about trying to get the ball into Treylon
Burks’ hands, it continues to end up with Woods, who is the clear
WR1 for QB Ryan Tannehill. Eight of Woods’ nine catches on the
season have come in the last two games, and last week he averaged
21.3 yards per catch. Defenses are stacking the box against Derrick
Henry and forcing Tannehill to make plays with his arm. Woods
will continue to be the top target and is a high volume WR2, even
against a stingy Colts secondary.
I keep hearing these fancy stats about Burks’ snap count
and target rate, and routes run. Here’s what I know. He
had one catch last week. One. And he’s yet to post five
catches in a game. OC Todd Downing is trying to get him the ball,
but it’s not working, at least not consistently. I’m
willing wait and see, but so far there’s nothing to see
here.
I bought the hype on Hooper. He’s a talented guy, who’s
done it before (in ATL), and finally in a system that plays to
his strength, no longer playing in a platoon. He even got paid,
but he hasn’t shown anyone that he can be the guy. He has
8 targets, four catches and 44 yards on the season and the Titans
are running the 6th fewest plays in the league. Look elsewhere
for your tight end.
TEN FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.4
TEN FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.17
TEN FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.5
TEN FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.11
The Titans are yielding a league-worst 5.8 yards per carry on
the ground. Taylor isn’t scoring TDs at the same clip he
did last year (1 this season) which is pushing down his fantasy
output but that will likely change in the near future. The Colts
got back to basics last week, making sure Taylor touched the ball
at least 20 times. The results were mediocre as the Chiefs did
a good job up front, but I’d expect more and more of Taylor
until the Titans figure out how to stop the run.
Hines has more targets than anyone on this team other than Michael
Pittman Jr. and is averaging five catches per game. He and Taylor
have ended up on the field together this season more than they
have in the past, so there’s reason to believe Hines will continue
to see the ball. But this Titans defense has been so surprisingly
bad against the run, you wonder if Matt Ryan will ever throw the
ball. Hines is a nice flex option playing against a defense not
nearly as stout as last weeks’ Chiefs unit.
Pierce’s speed and big play ability had a lot of people
excited in the preseason, including yours truly. But even in a
strong comeback performance last week after missing the second
game of the season with a concussion, Pierce was only the third-highest
targeted Colts receiver and the clear fourth option in this system.
In a game that should be focused on Taylor, there won’t
be enough attempts to support a third option in the passing game.
Perhaps no wide receiver early season breakout has been more
surprising than the one we’re seeing in Washington with Curtis
Samuel. The Commanders’ three wide receiver base offense has allowed
Samuel to get on the field at almost an identical rate to Terry
McLaurin and Jahan Dotson, but his usage has been off the chart
in comparison to them. He’s already secured 22 catches, compared
to McLaurin’s 12 and Dotson’s nine through three games and he’s
been targeted at least nine times in every game. Not only that,
but he’s getting a couple of rush attempts per game, which has
helped him add a point or two each week. The Cowboys have been
a good defense this year, but volume is king and we should continue
to start Samuel as long as he’s operating as the top receiving
weapon in this offense.
Aside from his seven-catch performance in Week 1, Antonio Gibson
is simply getting by on touchdowns alone from a fantasy standpoint.
He’s averaging a horrendous 3.1 yards per carry so far and
continues to concede the majority of passing down work to J.D.
McKissic, which means that he’s teetering dangerously close
to complete dud territory if he has a week where he doesn’t
get into the end zone. Dallas hasn’t allowed a single opposing
team to score more than 20 points against them yet this season,
so there aren’t likely to be a lot of scoring opportunities
for Gibson in this one. Play him if you have to, but he’s
not a strong start against Dallas.
McLaurin’s usage has increased each week, culminating in a six-catch,
102-yard game against the Eagles in Week 3, but he’s still yet
to really have a “big” game this season. McLaurin is a solid WR2/WR3
play against the Cowboys and he will likely see plenty of coverage
from Trevon Diggs who is beatable even though he does force a
ton of turnovers, but McLaurin is not the borderline WR1 we’ve
seen in recent years.
The breakout from Samuel has meant some pretty ugly games thus
far for the other Washington pass-catching weapons who are not
named Terry McLaurin. Dotson scored three touchdowns in his first
two professional games on only seven total receptions but came
back to Earth against the Eagles in Week 3 when he caught just
two passes for 10 yards, albeit on a season-high 10 targets. Meanwhile,
Logan Thomas scored a touchdown of his own in Week 2 but has otherwise
been completely unusable in fantasy this season, catching just
eight total passes through three games. The volume simply is not
there for these two players right now and it’s an especially
tough matchup against a good Dallas defense.
WAS FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.5
WAS FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.18
WAS FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.3
WAS FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.17
We all watched in horror as CeeDee Lamb dropped what should have
been an easy pass during this past week’s Monday Night Football
broadcast. Lamb’s brand has taken a hit early this year due to
a few plays like that and of course the loss of Dak Prescott,
but the reality is that he’s still delivering for fantasy. Since
Cooper Rush took over as the Cowboys starter, Lamb has now been
targeted 23 times over his past two games, catching 15 of those
passes for 162 yards and a touchdown. He’s easily been the top
pass catcher in this Dallas offense and there’s no question that
he’s Rush’s favorite weapon. As long as he continues to see 10
targets per game, it really doesn’t matter who he faces, Lamb
needs to be in your starting lineup.
Week 3 saw Elliott score his first touchdown, but it’s otherwise
been a terrible start to the 2022 season for the former NFL rushing
leader. He is still seeing the volume on the ground, including
15 carries in each of his past two games, but he’s running
behind a ravaged Cowboys offensive line that is simply not opening
up holes on a consistent basis. To make matters worse, he’s
only caught three passes on the season after being an under-the-radar
pass catcher in 2021. It’s tough to say “bench him”
when the Cowboys are home favorites in a game, but Elliott is
facing a Washington defense that hasn’t yet allowed an opposing
running back to reach even 70 rushing yards and they’ve
allowed just one rushing touchdown to the position so far this
season.
Tight end Dalton Schultz might be the biggest casualty of the
Cowboys’ loss of Dak Prescott. The tight end was a big-time
breakout player in 2021, but he caught just two passes for 18
yards in Cooper Rush’s first start this season before missing
Week 3 with a PCL injury. While it’s looking like he’ll
play this Sunday, there’s a decent chance that Schultz won’t
be at 100 percent and this might be a good week to sit him if
you have another viable option. Unfortunately, as we know, the
tight end position is a total wasteland so most fantasy owners
are probably not rostering two startable tight ends.
Cowboys running back Tony Pollard is playing about 46 percent
of the Cowboys snaps so far this season, but he’s still
very much the “1B” to Ezekiel Elliott’s “1A”
despite what many fans and fantasy owners might want. He has turned
in back-to-back double-digit games for fantasy owners, but the
reality is that his upside is extremely limited and he needs to
break off a long run or reception for a touchdown to deliver strong
fantasy value. Washington has done a good job of containing opposing
running backs this season and no back has caught more than two
passes in a game against them, so this is probably a good week
to fade Pollard unless you’re desperate.
The pass-catching weapons in Dallas beyond CeeDee Lamb have been
rough this season, but Noah Brown has shown a little bit, having
delivered double-digit PPR fantasy points in all three games.
Unfortunately for him, his playing time may be taking a significant
hit this week as wide receiver Michael Gallup is now practicing
in full and appears ready to play as early as this week. If he
does play, this is a situation to avoid as neither Gallup nor
Brown will probably see enough work to make them strong fantasy
plays for the time being. We’ll have to keep an eye on this
situation.
Back in action last Sunday after missing a game with an ankle
injury, Davis was targeted six times against Miami, hauling in
three of them for 37 yards. While it was a quiet day, if we go
back to last December the UCF product has scored 10 touchdowns
in his past nine games (including playoffs). Baltimore has yielded
an NFL-high 353.3 yards per game via the air, and as good as Diggs
is, there should still be plenty to go around this Sunday. Pencil
Davis in as a solid WR3 that could deliver WR2 numbers.
Buffalo hasn’t asked a lot from any of their top three backs
this season with Allen sitting atop the team’s rushing leaders
with 113 yards. Singletary quietly ranks second on the club in
receptions (13), however, and his 139 snaps are more than Zack
Moss (51) and James Cook (32) combined. That could be a boon against
the Ravens, as Singletary is equally capable of contributing as
a receiver out of the backfield or hitting Baltimore with some
runs against light boxes if they keep their safeties back. He
could be utilized as a low-end RB2 in Week 4.
Knox is off to a slow start, managing nine receptions, 71 yards,
and no touchdowns through three games. Although the Ravens have
allowed two TDs to tight ends on the year, they’ve been stingy
in terms of yardage, which includes holding New England’s duo
of Hunter Henry and Jonnu Smith to 33 yards on five grabs a week
ago. This looks like a good week to explore other options at the
position.
BUF FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.32
BUF FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.29
BUF FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.22
BUF FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.29
To be clear, the Ravens’ passing game revolves around Andrews,
who might just be Jackson’s first and second reads on any given
play. Bateman has been good for at least one big play per game
so far, though, averaging a whopping 28.3 yards per catch on his
eight receptions. With Micah Hyde (neck) done for the year, and
Jordan Poyer (foot) dealing with a foot injury, expect the Ravens
to test Buffalo down the field. That gives Bateman lottery-ticket
potential from a WR3 slot.
Dobbins made his return from a torn ACL last Sunday, which is
good news as he’s by far their most explosive back. Still, it’s
going to take time to round into shape. Dobbins played 26 snaps
in Week 3, three fewer than Justice Hill, and the Ohio State product
accounted for just 40 combined yards on nine touches. It’s tempting
to see the name and want to get him into your lineup, but against
a Bills defense that sits second in the NFL against the run (57.7
yards per game), Dobbins is a weak flex play.
The little-known Dortch has caught 20 of his 23 targets for 198
yards and a score through three games, and figures to be a factor
again this week with A.J. Green (knee) expected to miss more time.
Coverages have been rolled to Marquise Brown, and Rondale Moore
could potentially make his return this week, which could mean
some really favorable matchups for Dortch. He’s a smart FLEX option
and even a strong WR3 play with upside.
I love Moore as a player – a receiver who can align anywhere,
fill multiple roles in the offense, and is as sure-handed as they
come. The Cardinals are hopeful that he returns from his hamstring
injury this week and so am I. He could absorb a lot of the hole
left by A.J. Green’s injury and is a sneaky WR2 play this
week…if he’s healthy. Keep checking the injury reports.
HC Kliff Kingsbury has talked about getting Conner more involved
in the offense – he has just 90 rushing and 75 receiving
yards through three games – but I don’t see it. The
Panthers are allowing 4.3 yards per rush, but the Cardinals just
aren’t going to push the ball on the ground, even against
a Carolina secondary that has firmed up in recent weeks. It was
easy to predict some touchdown regression after he scored 18 times
last season and that has certainly been the case (1 TD), but even
more disturbing is the fact that Arizona starting RB hasn’t
topped 39 rushing yards in any game.
ARI FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.9
ARI FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.14
ARI FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.16
ARI FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.1
Baker has struggled to start the season, completing less than
50% of his throws in his last two games and has just three passing
TDs on the season. The good news? The Cardinals’ defense is allowing
a completion rate of over 70%, yielding over 8.0 yards per attempt,
and has allowed seven touchdowns through the air. Mayfield is
starting to build some chemistry with Robbie Anderson (team high
17 targets), and his best receiver, D.J. Moore, hasn’t lost any
skill from last season and is seeing a 23.4% target share. I think
all three could be good one-off options in this matchup this week.
Anyone who has been reading my articles since the preseason knows
that I have been decidedly off the McCaffrey bandwagon. The injury
risk is just too high for me, but it’s hard to argue with
the production. He already has two 100-yard rushing days, running
at nearly 5.0 yards per clip, and though he hasn’t been
quite as productive as usual in the passing game, he’s been
effective. This team is not getting in the end zone, and that’s
hurting him. Of course, he’s dealing with yet another injury,
a quad that has kept him out of practice this week. You know if
he’s in there you’re playing him. I just hate waiting
until Sunday to find out.
Thomas ranks 39th in FPts/G at the position and his running mate,
Tommy Tremble, has two targets on the season. Thomas leads all
Panthers TE’s in targets. Of course, the tight ends on this team
account for just 12 of the team’s 77 targets overall. This group
is basically Christian McCaffrey’s entourage in the run game and
never fantasy viable.
This section is all about heading in the wrong direction and trying
to get that turned around. Williams led the team in attempts and
yards (15-58) against a robust 49ers-D. He is the leader in this
split backfield, but hasn’t done much with that title. He has
averaged a mundane 9.25 FPts/G the past two weeks. His pass catching
ability hasn’t been utilized as of late. He went from 11 catches
in Week 1 to three on Sunday. This is the game for Williams to
break out against a very generous Raiders run defense. Las Vegas
is 31st in receiving yards allowed to RBs at 64 yards per contest.
The concern now is the increase in playing time for Mike Boone,
who saw a season-high in third-down snaps (19%). Time to get back
on track for Williams where he hopefully will be headed in the
direction of the end zone.
Looking for some company on the comeback trail? Make room for
Melvin! The Raiders are allowing a robust 28.9 FPts/G to RBs,
which is 30th and they look like a salve to a struggling Denver
offense. His line Sunday wasn’t great (12-26-1) but he is
still getting the crucial short yardage work. The concern with
Boone’s rise throws a wrench into Gordon’s potential
as well. Vegas should allow multiple players multiple opportunities,
so let’s hope both of them can make some hay.
I’m not sure where the Broncos offense is going, but I’m
pretty sure it is opposite of where it should be. Wilson has seen
his passing yards fall from 340 Week 1 to 184 last week. Could
the offensive line be a concern? They are allowing a sack more
each week with a season high four on Sunday. The play calling?
They haven’t scored more than 17 points in a game. Wilson’s
yards per attempt is shrinking from 8.1 week one to 5.5 last week.
This is a get-right week against the Raiders who are 29th in the
league allowing 22.6 FPts/G to QBs. If he can’t get it going
now, real questions are going to arise.
DEN FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.30
DEN FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.32
DEN FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.32
DEN FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.7
Jacobs has a certain flair for the dramatic. He didn’t fly
with the team to Tennessee but did eventually arrive to led the
team in all backfield numbers. It wasn’t anything fancy
(13-66) and five catches for 31 yards on six targets. He will
have the bulk of the work on Sunday, which might be a mixed blessing.
Denver doesn’t give it up easy to RBs, as they only average
12 FPts/G which is third best on the league. If he does have that
flair for the dramatic, this will be his best game of the year.
No offense to Foster Moreau, but this is the last guy Waller owners
want to see. Waller isn’t listed as injured, but he has seen his
yards per target drop from 13.1 in Week 1 to a paltry 4.4 last
week. His line (3-22) bears that out. The problem is that Moreau
had the same number of catches and targets, but ended up with
twice as much yardage (44 yards). Moreau splitting more snaps
isn’t ideal for Waller especially if he becomes the “explosive
play” guy, which was Waller’s role in the past. Denver allows
the seventh most fantasy points to TEs, so this might be an interesting
test case for the two of them.
What a week for Hollins. He was receiver number one for Vegas
as he led the team with 10 targets and produced a huge day (8-158-1).
His receptions and yards were a career high. If Hunter Renfrow
(concussion) returns this week, that will certainly pop Hollins’
feel-good story balloon as he returns to his place lower on the
depth chart. But we will always have Tennessee. You should also
avoid his siren song of the waiver wire, he is a one-week wonder.
Steer clear.
Although the Packers tightened up their run defense against the
Bucs last Sunday, Green Bay still ranks 18th in run defense, making
it a much more enticing plan of attack than having Brian Hoyer
go after their seventh-ranked pass D. Although Damien Harris leads
the team in rushing, Stevenson has seen 83 snaps over the past
two weeks to 52 for Harris. Stevenson has also been the more efficient
of the two, averaging 5.0 yards per carry on the year. Watching
the Packers lock down Leonard Fournette gives me pause about endorsing
Stevenson, but as a flex play the upside is worth it.
What’s written above about Stevenson applies to Harris
as well, so rather than rehash that let’s focus on the risk
a bit. New England needs to keep the game competitive to allow
the offense to flow through their two backs, and there’s
no guarantee their D will be able to stymy the Packers, which
are considerably more potent than their points-per-game average
would suggest. Like Stevenson, Harris is a risky flex.
People were waiting for Parker, an offseason acquisition, to
make his presence felt in New England. That finally happened last
Sunday when he posted a 5-156-0 line. Don’t bank on a repeat.
First, Green Bay has very good cornerbacks, even if Jaire Alexander
(groin) can’t go. Second, Hoyer is a career backup for a reason.
Third, Jakobi Meyers (knee) could return after missing Week 3.
All of those say stay away.
NE FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.8
NE FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.27
NE FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.29
NE FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.4
With Sammy Watkins (hamstring) on IR and Christian Watson (hamstring)
inactive, Doubs stepped into the starting lineup and produced.
The rookie caught eight passes for 73 yards and a touchdown against
the Buccaneers, showing the same talent that made him jump off
the page in offseason workouts and training camp. While Allen
Lazard figures to remain the No. 1 receiver in Green Bay for the
time being, Doubs feels like an ascending talent that is doing
the important work of becoming a trusted target for Aaron Rodgers.
A WR3 designation feels a bit lofty for Doubs still, but as a
flex he would carry some tangible upside potential.
Rodgers has been better since a disappointing Week 1, but he hasn’t
put up the type of numbers we’ve come to expect over the
years. Granted, many suspected a slower start could be in the
works while No. 12 adjusted to a lot of new faces. The question
is how long will the middling production continue? On that front,
don’t be surprised if Rodgers has another modest stat line
against the Pats, as this just has the feel of a letdown game
for the Packers after playing their historic rival in Week 2 and
the high-profile matchup with Tom Brady last week (plus a trip
to London on the horizon). Rodgers looks no better than a low-end
QB1 this Sunday.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire is listed as the RB1 on the depth chart,
but the truth is McKinnon is on the field just about as much,
is getting most of the 3rd down work and is a major part of the
sub-packages HC Andy Reid likes to use down in the red zone. Against
a tough Bucs run defense, I expect a lot of motion and movement
to open up quick reads in the short passing game as an alternative.
After Travis Kelce, it’s crap shoot as to who will see the ball
week to week, but McKinnon makes a lot of sense this week as Mahomes
and company try to get that defensive front moving sideline to
sideline in space where McKinnon can use his quick cut abilities.
Working primarily out of the slot, Smith-Schuster is settling
into his new surroundings and is actually second on the team in
targets behind TE Travis Kelce. The problem is he’s too
inconsistent – 8 targets in Week 1, 3 in Week 2, back to
8 in Week 3. Not all of that is of his doing. QB Patrick Mahomes’
strength this season has been his ability to spread the ball.
As a result, Smith-Schuster, or anyone in this receiving corps
for that matter, is a high risk, high reward play.
For some reason, HC Andy Reid and his staff are reluctant to
hand the workload over the Edwards-Helaire, and while fellow backs
Jerick McKinnon and Isiah Pacheco have already been stealing snaps,
word out of KC this week points to even more of a RB by committee
approach, making it harder for CEH to make any sizeable fantasy
impact.
KC FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.11
KC FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.8
KC FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.14
KC FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.9
Before his suspension, Evans was growing into big play form,
averaging over 16 yards per catch. Julio Jones (knee) and Chris
Godwin (hamstring) are both gametime decision while Breshad Perriman
(hamstring) is Doubtful making Evans the only trustworthy receiver
of the bunch. Brady is looking for a spark for this offense, so
he will be thrilled to have Evans back and will force him the
ball this week. I have Evans pegged for a 100-yard, 2 TD effort
in a spotlight game for this team.
Gage stepped up when his team needed him last week with a 12-catch
game that went for 87 yards and a score. That’s something he was
always able to do during his days in Atlanta, too. The problem
is Mike Evans is back this week, which is going to seriously reduce
Gage’s opportunities. If Chris Godwin and Julio Jones return from
injury, he’ll get pushed even further down the list. Even if the
situation does turn favorable for him this week, he’s only averaging
about 7.0 yards per catch, so he’s not going to be a big volume
play anyway. He’s a viable WR3.
Brady has not been Brady. Whether it’s issues at home,
issues with coaching, or just the fact that his whole receiving
corps has been M.I.A., it hasn’t looked as smooth and effortless
as it always has. He could still just be knocking the rust off,
but at 45 I just don’t think he can carry the offense anymore.
The return of Evans could give a bump to his stats this week,
but there’s too many other options out there to put your
faith here against a tough Chiefs defense.
Akers looks to have finally secured the role as RB1, much to the
delight of everyone who drafted him early this year. He led the
team (12-61-1) last week although he wasn’t involved in
the receiving game at all. He was on the field for 50 % of the
snaps, a season high, so this is beginning to look like this might
be the split. San Francisco gives up the 10th fewest FPts/G to
RBs this year at 18.6. He is back in the driver seat, now he just
needs to avoid fumbling…
Robinson remains in the mix for the Rams, although he has had
more disappearing acts than impacts. He was second on the team
on Sunday with 5 targets, although it produced a negligible 2-23.
He will need to come out of hibernation against a 49ers-D that
is second in the NFL in FPts/G to WRs with a skimpy 26.6. Let’s
hope this is the game that you can build some momentum off because
all this starting and stopping is hurting my neck.
Skowronek was the surprise on Sunday, tying for the lead with
4 receptions and leading with 66 yards. The Cardinals did a good
job limiting Cooper Kupp and Skowronek became the deep threat,
averaging 16.5 yard per throw, doubling his previous highest output.
You can’t keep Kupp down and San Francisco is an eraser
against WRs as previously stated, so this might be the week to
pass on him and wait to see if this was just a one-week occurrence.
LAR FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.7
LAR FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.30
LAR FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.2
LAR FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.30
As long as he stays on the field of play, Jimmy Garappolo gives
Samuel his best chance of producing at the same all-pro clip as
last year. He went for 5 for 73, both season highs, and had the
longest depth of target number of 9.1 yards on Sunday. The Rams
are 31st against WRs, allowing a whopping 51.5 FPts/G. Samuel
continues to round into shape in what should be a high-scoring
affair and he should secure his first TD catch of the year.
It was good to see Kittle back healthy on Sunday, but the 49ers
never got the passing game going as he finished with a 4-28 line.
It looks like it might be more of the same against the Rams, who
surrender only 5.8 FPts/G to TEs, third fewest in the league.
Hopefully Kittle can ease back into playing shape but this game
looks to be WR heavy, so don’t expect much from Kittle.
This looks like Wilson’s backfield at the moment. He led
the team with 12 carries and 75 yards, caught 3 for 31 and he
was on the field for a season-high 73% of the snaps last week.
Now say hello to the Rams run defense, which only allows 11.7
FPts/G, second fewest to RBs. Wilson’s cause won’t
helped by the ankle injury to all-pro tackle Trent Williams. He
might be getting all the snaps this week, but he also might be
getting all the icepacks afterwards.
