It was hoop great Michael Jordan who once said, “The ceiling
is the roof.” He was actually just trying to say the sky is
the limit, but it came out a bit garbled. Michael had a point, however.
He wanted his basketball team to reach for lofty goals.
Similarly, you want your football team (read fantasy players) to
reach the extreme heights of their ability. For some, that’s
to become elite at their position. For others, their abilities are
much more limited as are our goals for each of them.
Of course that strategy is not for every fantasy owner, because
some of those high-ceilings players also have extremely low floors
(think Christian McCaffrey). We might call them “boom or bust”
players. They’re only for fantasy owners who are true gamblers,
because there is a chance they could singlehandedly ruin your season
before it gets rolling.
If you are the more conservative type, you want the men with the
“highest floor.” You want your guy to produce solid
numbers each week, perhaps not at the elite level, but enough that
you have the chance to win, week-in and week-out.
In today’s piece, we are going to analyze the “highest
ceiling”, “highest floor”, and “most likely
to bust” for each of the first 10 rounds based on a 12-team,
PPR league and using FFToday’s ADP.
Chase has everything going for him. A great quarterback (Joe
Burrow), elite target numbers (league-leading 175 in 2025) and
a defense (seventh-most points, eighth-most yards) which forces
the offense to produce 30+ points if they want to win.
The man put up more than 1,900 yards on the ground and scored
18 times. I don’t care that he is 31-years-old, in this
Ravens offense, his floor is top-10 and his ceiling is top-five.
Only his lack of pass receiving skills keeps him from being top-three.
Henry’s 5.9 ypc last season was the best number of his career
and as long as Lamar Jackson is his quarterback the dual-threat
backfield will be successful for both players.
We all think he will be successful, but until we see him on the
field, we can’t possibly know for sure. And at No.7, that’s
a very high price to pay for the unknown. His OL is just middle
of the pack (rated 14th by our own Doug Orth), unlike the top-three
ranked RBs, who have better lines. Is he first-year Clyde Edwards-Helaire
or a Jonathan Taylor? Buyer beware.
Before injuring his hamstring in Week 5, Collins was the best
receiver in the league (30-489-2). This, on a team with no offensive
line and C.J Stroud having a subpar season. The OL can’t
be any worse, Stroud is a year smarter and Collins is healthy.
The ceiling is the roof.
Jacobs was the definition of a workhorse back and he was successful
(337 touches, 1,671 combined yards and 16 touchdowns). He still
has no threat to his massive workload.
Sure, he had a great rookie season (1,514 yards from scrimmage,
eight touchdowns) but he’s still sharing significant time
with Rachaad White, both as a rusher and a receiver. Irving is
going to start the season on the good side of a 65-35 split of
the workload, but any relaxing from him and this could end up
in a full-blown RBBC.
It wasn’t that long ago that Tyreek Hill and fans were
talking of the possibility of him reaching 2,000 receiving yards.
In fact, he was at 1,799 in 2023. If his quarterback, Tua Tagovailoa,
can stay upright, Hill can be a top-five receiver which you drafted
late in the third round (ADP 29).
“Scary Terry” has been doing it right since he came
into the league. Over the past four seasons he’s cracked
1,000 each time and he’s played every game. McLaurin is
a consistent high-quality playmaker, who has a young, talented
and improving quarterback under center.
It’s a bad word for fantasy owner… regression. The
running back produced nine touchdowns in his first two seasons
combined and 18 last season. His quarterback still likes to run
the ball in important situations and in the final year of his
rookie deal, he’s seeking a long-term deal where the talks
have stalled. Although he was at the mandatory minicamp, an unhappy
player isn’t a good thing, particularly when the backup,
Ray Davis, has shown flashes.
Like Collins in Houston, Rice was off to a great start before
his season ended prematurely. Three games produced 65 fantasy
points, but an injured knee ended his season after one month.
What he showed in this offense was the ability to break short
passes in the middle of the field into big plays. That used to
be Travis Kelce’s area, but in 2024, Rice did it better.
Kelce is one year older, Xavier Worthy’s speed has the secondary
playing deep and the middle should again be his, and his, bailiwick.
He is the definition of consistency. Eleven seasons played, 11
1,000-yard seasons produced. He’s also scored double-digit
touchdowns in four of the last five seasons. No more needs to
be said.
Walker’s average yards-per-rush has dropped the past two
seasons from a solid 4.6 as a rookie to 4.1 and then a subpar
3.7 last season. Behind the same OL, backup Zach Charbonnet produced
4.2 ypc. And when Walker missed some time, Charbonnet thrived
(five games with 14+ rushing attempts he averaged 20.3 FPts/G).
I’m too concerned about a true 50-50 split to take Walker
in the fourth round.
Metcalf lost his top status in Seattle to Jaxon Smith-Njigba
and in the offseason the team traded him to the Steelers where
he will once again be the No.1 target hog. If Aaron Rodgers has
anything left, Metcalf’s ceiling could be elite, because
Rodgers loves to feed his top guy (see Davante Adams). With the
other Pittsburgh options being Calvin Austin, Ben Skowronek or
tight ends Jonnu Smith and Pat Freiermuth, Metcalf could see 175
targets.
Conner has averaged more than 15 FPts/G in each of the last four
seasons. His issue is that he’s missed time in all four
of those years. But he did set career highs in games played (16),
carries (236), receptions (47), rushing yards (1,094), and receiving
yards (414) last year. None of his backups showed enough to steal
his thunder if he’s on the field.
What might have been a solid rookie option for the Browns at
running back, has become a huge question mark after being arrested
for domestic violence in mid-July. This is why fantasy drafts
shouldn’t take place until right before the beginning of
the season. Veteran Jerome Ford and fellow rookie Dylan Sampson
will get a shot to entrench themselves as the top guy before Judkins
is likely allowed to play again.
How is Mayfield the seventh quarterback off the board? He finished
third last season with Chris Godwin injured for half the year.
Godwin will be back, Evans is Evans, the team drafted insurance
in case of wide receiver injury in the form of Emeka Egbuka (Ohio
State) and their running back tandem caught almost 100 passes
a year ago. Mayfield is not afraid to run the football when needed.
He’s a huge bargain here with a top-three ceiling again.
In his worst season since 2015, Kelce still finished seventh
at the position in FPts/G (12.3). Barring injuries to the wide
receiver room (particularly Rice who works the same area of the
field), Kelce will never be the first-round fantasy guy he once
was, but he should return to top-five status at his position.
Is he a receiver? Is he a cornerback? Is he both? Will playing
both positions hurt his fantasy value? Even if he plays full-time
wide receiver and part-time CB, he’s got to share the target
workload with last year’s sensation Brian Thomas Jr. (87-1,282-10).
Hunter wants to go 100 plays a game, but that’s scary for
a fantasy owner. Oh, and his quarterback is Trevor Lawrence, who’s
best year was three seasons ago (4,113 passing yards and 25 touchdowns).
I’m not sure Lawrence can support two top receivers.
If rookie quarterback, Cam Ward, is for real, Ridley could reproduce
his 2020 season when he went 90-1,374-9 for the Falcons. Ridley
hit for 1,000 yards last season with horrible quarterback play.
He should be a 130-150 target hog given the other Titans options
(aging Tyler Lockett, rookie Elic Ayomanor or always injured Treylon
Burks).
Funny to put Pickens as a “floor guy” given his mercurial
character, but he’s in a much better place in Jerry’s
World. Dak Prescott is a much better quarterback than he had in
Pittsburgh. Additionally, CeeDee Lamb should see the opposition’s
best cornerback leaving Pickens on the No.2 guy. Until the Cowboys
ground game improves, the offense is Dak to his wideouts. Pickens
in the seventh round could be a steal.
The quarterback options are; Spencer Rattler, Jake Haener or
rookie Tyler Shough. The defense rests. Ok, not quite… Olave
is one or two concussions from retirement. Now the defense rests.
Andrews was one of the best tight ends after a slow start and
produced a career-best 11 touchdowns in 2024. He will again be
one of Lamar’s favorite choices in the red zone. Do not
fear Isaiah Likely, Andrews is still the guy. Even after scoring
just a combined 22 fantasy points through Week 5, he finished
the season averaging 13.9 over the last 12 games. He’s healthier
now.
Engram is a wide receiver disguised as a tight end. In his first
season with the Broncos, he should fit in well with WRs Courtland
Sutton and Marvin Mims. We will see whether the new running back
duo of rookie RJ Harvey and J.K. Dobbins is successful. If not,
the Denver offense will once again fall on the arm of Bo Nix and
his receiving corps. Over his eight-year career (108 games), with
mediocre quarterback play, Engram has averaged 10.7 FPts/G.
Is Matthew Golden a star in the making or just another wideout
added to an already jammed receiver room? The team has; Jayden
Reed, Romeo Doubs, Dontayvion Wicks, Bo Melton and Mecole Hardman,
though Christian Watson won’t be available in 2025 (ACL
in January). All those mouths to feed, plus talented tight end
Tucker Kraft and quarterback Jordan Love only averaged 28 passes
a game. If Golden isn’t Malik Nabers or Thomas Jr., he could
easily get lost in the crowd.
Name another wideout in the Raiders receiving room. The Las Vegas
offense will be tight end Brock Bowers, Meyers and Jeanty. Geno
Smith is a lot better than Aidan O’Connell, Desmond Ridder
or Gardner Minshew was in 2024. Meanwhile, new Head Coach, Pete
Carroll always had a balanced offense in Seattle with… Smith
as his quarterback. With teams focusing on Bowers and Jeanty,
Meyers should benefit.
Jim Harbaugh loves to run the ball. So does his new veteran running
back Najee Harris. Head coaches also like running backs who don’t
turn the ball over and Harris didn’t fumble once in almost
300 touches last season and just five times in four seasons and
1,277 touches. Rookie Omarion Hampton will have to show he can
reliably hold the football and protect his quarterback and then
it’s still likely to be a full-time RBBC. The Chargers ran
the ball 463 times in 2024, plenty enough for both backs to be
solid RB2 options.
Bears tight ends caught just 56 balls in 2024 for 512 yards and
four scores. Rookie quarterback Caleb Williams didn’t look
their way despite one of the worst offensive lines in the league.
Maybe because the team needed the tight end to help block onrushing
linemen. The team thinks they have improved the OL and hopefully
so, but in that case, they will likely target their wideout room
even more given the additional time. That’s more for D.J.
Moore, Rome Odunze and rookie Luther Burden III. Loveland should
get the majority of work over veteran Cole Kmet, but it all depends
on the OL effort. If they aren’t improved, Loveland will
spend too much time fending off the DE and rushing linebackers.
We have seen plenty of Javonte Williams and Miles Sanders already.
Plenty of mediocrity that is. Jaydon Blue is a rookie speedster
out of Texas and when the team gets tired of 3.7 ypc from the
two journeymen, they can try Blue, who ran for 5.4 ypc for the
Longhorns and also caught 42 balls. By midseason he could be their
explosive backfield option while opposing defenses are defending
Lamb and Pickens. At ADP 121.5, he could be a championship winner
and at worst he’ll be a third-down back.
Pittman had an off-season in 2024 and still averaged double-digit
fantasy points. It’s tough to produce when your No.1 QB,
Anthony Richardson, throws at a 47.7 percentage completion rate.
If Daniel Jones is the starter over “AR” he’s
got a career 64.1-percent rate. Pittman should produce 15 FPts/G
with Jones and the floor, if Richardson returns, is still at least
10 PPG.
It’s not a good sign that the team filled up the wide receiver
room in the offseason. They brought Elijah Moore from Cleveland,
Josh Palmer from the Chargers, Laviska Shenault from Seattle,
Jalen Virgil from Denver and drafted a rookie out of Maryland
in the seventh round. They are throwing darts at the target in
hopes that something sticks. The Bills need to find someone to
help Khalil Shakir and Josh Allen. Coleman managed just 57 targets
and 29 receptions (50.9%) for 556 yards and four scores from one
of the best quarterbacks in the league. I have little confidence
at this time that he will be a second-year breakout.
