Kenneth Walker has rebounded well from his slow Week 1 start,
posting 18.3 fantasy points in Week 2 with Zach Charbonnet active,
and 17.5 in Week 3 while Charbonnet was sidelined. His per-touch
efficiency (0.74 FPts/touch) remains right in line with his career
average (0.77), making him a strong flex play against an Arizona
defense that has allowed the eighth-most fantasy points to opposing
RBs.
While Walker may still be subject to volatility if the backfield
trends toward an even split again, his red-zone usage and consistent
efficiency keep him squarely in the RB2 mix this week.
Zach Charbonnet returned to full participation in Tuesday’s walk-through,
and early signs suggest he’ll be back in Week 4. Before the injury,
Charbonnet was seeing respectable volume (13.5 touches per game)
but minimal fantasy return (11.7 total points across two games).
Seattle plugged George Holani into a nearly identical role in
Week 3, suggesting that the Seahawks plan to stick with a true
two-headed backfield.
The road matchup increases the risk of a negative game script.
Arizona has given up chunk plays to RBs in the passing game (20
receptions, 2 receiving touchdowns allowed) but not much on the
ground (3.2 yards per carry). With Charbonnet yet to see a single
target from Sam Darnold, his outlook is far shakier than Walker’s.
He’s a low-end flex this week.
Cooper Kupp ranks second on the Seahawks in targets and has earned
looks on 19% of Darnold’s attempts. That should translate
into 6–7 targets per game, but Seattle’s run-heavy
approach has kept him capped at five targets a week. He’s
been efficient (9.1 yards per target) and remains sure-handed,
but Kupp likely needs Darnold to attempt 30+ passes for fantasy
relevance. On the road against Arizona, that game script is possible,
but he’s still best viewed as a WR4 with limited upside.
Sam Darnold has been steady for Seattle — 70% completions,
4 touchdowns to 2 interceptions, and only three sacks taken in
three games. Still, this offense isn’t built for him to
push fantasy ceilings. Without a heavy passing workload or rushing
ability to lean on, his 14.6 FPts/G keeps him on the fringe of
QB2/3 territory.
Rookie tight end Elijah Arroyo’s role continues to grow
— his snap share jumped to 49% in Week 3 — but his
usage hasn’t followed. One target (an incompletion) is not
enough to put him on the fantasy radar, especially in a run-first
offense. He remains a stash, not a starter.
SEA FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.24
SEA FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.14
SEA FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.31
SEA FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.1
With James Conner out for the season, Trey Benson should see
his role grow substantially. He already had 29 touches through
three weeks, and now inherits Conner’s 13.3 touches per game as
well. Arizona has been comfortable using him in the passing game
(8 receptions already), which matters here -- Seattle has limited
backs on the ground (3.2 YPC allowed) but has been vulnerable
through the air (11 yards per reception, 7.3 catches per game
allowed). Benson’s versatile skill set gives him multiple paths
to RB2 production in Week 4.
Kyler Murray has rushed for 30+ yards in every game this season,
but the passing has lagged behind. He’s yet to top 220 passing
yards in a game and has just four total touchdowns through three
weeks. His 16.1 FPts/G ranks just 22nd among multi-start quarterbacks.
There’s reason for optimism -- with Conner out, Murray could
see more designed runs and more pass volume. But this matchup
isn’t a soft one. Seattle has allowed the ninth-fewest fantasy
points to quarterbacks and held Murray to 16.2 FPts/G in two meetings
last year. Until his connection with Marvin Harrison Jr. develops
into something more consistent, Murray looks like more of a QB2
than a QB1 this week.
As Steve Schwarz covered in his piece “Truth and Lies -
Week 4”, owning stock in Marvin Harrison Jr. has been a
wild see-saw ride for fantasy managers. His totals over the last
two weeks (5 receptions, 71 yards combined) are identical to his
Week 1 output, minus the touchdown. He’s being used more
situationally than as a true offensive centerpiece, which makes
him matchup-dependent.
That’s a problem against Seattle. The Seahawks have given
up the second-fewest fantasy points to wide receivers and limited
Harrison to modest stat lines in two meetings last year (no touchdowns,
never more than 4 catches or 49 yards). Fantasy managers should
look elsewhere in Week 4 if they can.
Off to a very slow start with J.J. McCarthy (ankle) under center,
Hockenson found things with Carson Wentz much more productive
as he caught five passes for 49 yards and a touchdown -- to get
a feel for how little he’d done over the first two weeks, all
three of those numbers topped his season-to-date output entering
play in Week 3. As written about in last week’s game preview,
it made sense that Wentz, a veteran that wants to prioritize protecting
the football, would use a short and intermediate target like Hockenson
to move the sticks. It could continue this Sunday in a matchup
against a Steelers defense that struggled to cover Hunter Henry,
who had 90 yards and a pair of TDs on eight receptions. Get Hockenson
in your lineup.
Addison is set to make his 2025 debut in Dublin after serving
a three-game suspension for violating the league’s substance abuse
policy. The third-year pro has made an impact each of his first
two seasons, particularly his 19 touchdown grabs. Those were in
offenses that looked far more dynamic than the one Minnesota has
trotted out thus far, however, with this current iteration raising
question marks as to whether it can support another fantasy-worthy
threat at receiver beyond Jefferson. The combo of Jalen Nailor
and Adam Thielen tallied nine receptions, 122 yards, and no TDs
in Addison’s absence, which doesn’t even approach playable production.
The caveat is that neither of those players has Addison’s talent.
If you’re desperate for help, maybe you plug the USC alum into
your WR3 slot and hope he hits the ground running. The better
move is to adopt a wait-and-see approach and keep him out of your
starting lineup.
Don’t get wowed by the final score. The Bengals short circuited
in every possible way, allowing the Vikings to jump out to a big
lead and never look back. For the day, Wentz completed just 14
passes for 173 yards and 2 TDs. Don’t expect Pittsburgh
to be nearly as generous in facilitating their own demise. The
Steelers had their own struggles defensively the first two weeks,
but they put it all together last Sunday with five sacks and five
takeaways in a road win over New England. There’s a reason
Wentz hasn’t handled a full-time starting job since 2021,
so don’t let one decent performance distract you from the
significant risk and limited upside associated with using him.
MIN FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.30
MIN FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.23
MIN FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.32
MIN FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.15
Acquired from Miami before the season, Smith has a respectable
12 catches on the year, though they’ve coverer only 65 yards (5.4
yards per catch). There’s nothing safe about the veteran. That
should be obvious. This is the kind of matchup where he could
fill a meaningful role, however, as the Steelers will want to
get the ball out of Aaron Rodgers’ hands quickly to keep an attacking
Vikings defense from overwhelming the veteran. As a volume-based
option, Smith might sneak into low-end TE1 territory this Sunday.
Ever since throwing for 244 yards and 4 TDs in Week 1, Rodgers
has passed for 342 yards, 3 TDs, and 3 INTs combined in games
against Seattle and New England. The Steelers rarely take shots
downfield, and as noted, Minnesota’s ability to rush the
passer means we’re unlikely to see much of that in Week
4, either. At this stage of his career the Steelers aren’t
going to want to expose Rodgers to a bunch of hits, so expect
an offense designed to possess the ball and limit how long they
ask the veteran to hold onto the football. It’s hard to
imagine him putting up QB1-type numbers.
The Saints’ passing attack has become a funnel offense, with
Chris Olave and Juwan Johnson accounting for most of rookie QB
Spencer Rattler’s targets. Olave has drawn an elite 37 targets
(12.3/game), turning them into 23-165-0 so far. While the lack
of touchdowns has capped his upside, WRs with this kind of opportunity
are rare, and his WR2 floor remains intact even in a tough road
matchup.
Johnson, meanwhile, has been a revelation at tight end. His 28
targets rank second at the position, and he’s posted three
straight double-digit fantasy outings despite scoring just once.
Johnson’s steady involvement (9.3 targets/game) makes him
a viable TE1, especially since Buffalo has been vulnerable at
times to interior targets.
With New Orleans likely chasing points, both Olave and Johnson
should see another heavy workload.
Alvin Kamara continues to see strong volume (19.7 touches/game),
but his role has become more one-dimensional. He’s totaled
just 9-68-0 as a receiver through three weeks despite seeing 17
targets -- well below his historical norms. That lack of reliable
pass-game usage weakens his weekly floor.
The Bills’ defense is no easy matchup either. They’ve
allowed the 7th fewest FPts/G to RBs and just 3.5 yards per carry.
If the Saints fall behind early, Kamara could find himself scripted
out of heavy rushing volume. His touches keep him in the flex
conversation, but expectations should be tempered.
Rattler has been asked to throw early and often (39.7 attempts/game),
but the production hasn’t followed. He’s yet to top
225 passing yards in any game and has just four total TDs against
three turnovers. While his Week 2 showing against San Francisco
(3 TDs) offered a glimmer of upside, the floor remains low.
Buffalo’s pass defense (3rd fewest FPts/G allowed to QBs)
is a brutal draw, and a road environment against a team averaging
34.0 points per game raises real blowout risk. With potential
for turnovers and even a mid-game benching, Rattler is not the
worst option in SuperFlex, but an avoid in 1-QB formats.
NO FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.9
NO FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.6
NO FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.15
NO FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.13
Dalton Kincaid’s usage remains a puzzle. His raw production is
encouraging (13-151-2), and he’s coming off a season-best 17.6
FPts performance in Week 3. But his route rate (61%) and split
role with Dawson Knox remain concerns.
The Saints haven’t faced many high-end TEs yet, but they did
allow Trey McBride to post 6-61-0 in Week 1. With Buffalo’s offense
humming, Kincaid carries borderline TE1 value but remains a volatile
option -- more of a boom-bust play than a safe floor guy.
Coleman’s 14-158-1 start looks solid on paper, but his
role has been inconsistent. His route participation has fluctuated
(94% Week 1, 63% Week 2, 84% Week 3), and Buffalo continues to
rotate WRs heavily. With Josh Allen spreading the ball to multiple
targets, Coleman’s week-to-week floor is shaky.
The Saints’ secondary has held WRs to just 123.0 yards
per game and two TDs across three weeks, making this a low-probability
spot for a breakout. Coleman is best left on benches outside of
deep formats.
Not much has gone right for the Texans offense through three
weeks. They are second-to-last in total yards (667) and last in
passing yards (401), but the one constant has been Pollard. He
leads all running backs with a 90.2% snap percentage and has finished
as the RB26, RB28 and RB15 in half-PPR leagues. He’s touched
the ball at least 18 times in each game this season and faces
a Texans-D that is good against the pass, but has given up the
7th most fantasy points to running backs. Perhaps new play-caller
Bo Hardegree can dial up some targets for Pollard?
The Titans’ passing attack doesn’t have any teeth and with an
implied team total of 16.25, it’s difficult to get excited about
any of the receivers. Ridley has seen enough snaps (89.1%) and
targets (21) to be a solid WR3 but the production (8-111-0) and
connection with Cam Ward hasn’t been there. Ayomanor (10-107-2)
has a similar stat line through three games but has found the
endzone twice, elevating his fantasy value. The matchup here against
Houston isn’t great as the Texans thrive on getting pressure on
the quarterback, which leads to inefficiency in the passing game
and turnovers. They’ve held all wideouts not named Puka Nacua
(10-130-0) to under 57 receiving yards. I’d lean toward other
WR/Flex options if you have them.
The early schedule for the Titans has been a buzzsaw (@DEN, LAR,
IND) so we should probably give some grace to the rookie QB. It’s
not going to get any easier this week as Houston ranks top 10
in pressure rate and has allowed just 3 TD passes in three games.
Ward is sporting a 54.5% completion rate and averaging just 5.1
yards per attempt. He’s tough to recommend, even as a low-end
option in 2QB leagues.
TEN FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.21
TEN FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.3
TEN FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.4
TEN FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.21
Nico has a TD in back-to-back games and finds himself in the
middle of the WR2 ranks after three weeks. His 25 targets (T-15th)
is 17 more than any other wide receiver on the team. That’s
the good news. The bad news is the Texans offense a whole which
has yet to top 19 points in any game this season and has one of
the worst offensive lines in the league. The saving grace here
is the matchup which has Houston favored (-7.5) at home against
a Titans defense that struggles to pressure the quarterback. They’ve
also given up 30-plus points to their last two opponents (LAR,
IND). I’d feel good about Nico as a solid WR2 this week
with a decent chance at WR1 production.
We’ve seen a shift in the Houston backfield as Woody Marks is
beginning to get more playing time at the expense of Dameon Pierce
and Dare Ogunbowale. However, that hasn’t impacted Chubb who’s
been in on roughly 52% of the snaps. His touch count has been
low (13, 14, 12) but this might be the most favorable spot he’s
had early in the season as a touchdown-plus favorite against Tennessee.
As a result, Chubb is a worthy consideration for your RB3 or Flex
spot this week.
As noted above, the matchup here for Houston is solid, but it’s
difficult to trust Stroud in a fantasy lineup given the struggles
of the offense to begin the season. He’s thrown a total
of 2 TDs passes and is averaging 200 passing yards a game. Kirk’s
first game of season was encouraging as he was thrown right into
the No.2 wideout role, playing 67% of the snaps. However, this
offense isn’t capable of supporting two wideouts at the
moment, making Kirk a solid bench stash for the time being.
With the Browns clearly making Judkins the lead back in Week
3, he moves into no-brainer territory even in a potentially tough
matchup as Cleveland is likely to lean on the run to try and keep
Detroit’s offense off the field. The other thing you can expect
the Browns to do is get the ball out of Joe Flacco’s hands as
quickly as possible. That should mean ample opportunities for
Njoku and rookie Harold Fannin Jr., with the veteran Njoku carrying
higher upside. He led the team in targets (7), receptions (5),
and yards (40) versus the Packers last Sunday, and he has a good
chance to do so again. We just saw Mark Andrews chew up Detroit’s
defense for a 6-91-2 line. While Njoku is unlikely to match that
level of production, he does carry low-end TE1 value.
It’s been a slow start to 2025 for Jeudy, who had just
one catch for 17 yards last week, a significant drop even from
Week 1 when he posted 66 yards on five receptions. Surely, the
Browns want to get Jeudy more involved, and unless the Lions endure
multiple injuries across their offensive line the way Green Bay
did in Week 3, they’re not going to be able to get away
with playing so conservatively on offense. Only the Bears have
allowed more passing touchdowns than the Lions (7) this season,
so their secondary has been far from airtight. With Cleveland
needing more juice on offense this week, don’t be surprised
if Flacco gives Jeudy some chances to make plays. His production
suggests a bench slot is appropriate, but Jeudy might be worth
a try as your WR3.
Fade: N/A
CLE FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.22
CLE FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.31
CLE FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.20
CLE FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.17
Through three weeks, Goff has delivered two duds and one monster
effort. So, what will we see in Week 4? On the surface, you might
think the Lions would want to shield Goff from the Browns’ pass
rush, but nobody has been able to run the ball on Cleveland, which
could put the onus on Goff to move the offense up and down the
field. Can he? Maybe. Cleveland made things very difficult on
Joe Burrow and Jordan Love, though offensive line issues absolutely
played a part in the latter’s struggle. There is some fringe QB1
potential with Goff this week, but if you have a decent alternative
the safer course of action would be to leave him on your bench.
Montgomery was basically unstoppable on Sunday night, turning
12 carries into 151 yards and a pair of touchdowns. For as impressive
as that was, it should be pointed out that Baltimore played without
Nnamdi Madubuike (neck) and Kyle Van Noy (hamstring), two important
members of their defense. You can also argue that the Browns have
the best defensive line in football. For the season, they’ve allowed
an NFL-low 57.3 yards per game and 2.3 yards per carry -- that
includes shutting down Derrick Henry and Josh Jacobs, both of
whom are physical backs. None of that bodes well for Montgomery,
who tallied just 25 yards on 11 carries against the Packers, which
rank third in run defense, in Week 1. Montgomery remains playable
as an RB3/flex. Just keep expectations in check.
Deebo could very well be the focal point of the Washington passing
game this week, especially Terry McLaurin (quad) isn’t able to
go. Jaylin Lane and Luke McCaffrey would have elevated roles in
that scenario but its should be McLaurin and TE Zach Ertz commanding
the majority of targets in the passing game. Usage for Deebo was
skewed last week as the Commanders rolled to 41-24 victory, but
we should expect an 80 percent snap share in normal game scripts
– something we should get here in Week 4.
Jayden Daniels (knee) missed last week and it’s unclear if he
will play in Week 4. If he doesn’t, Mariota would the call for
his second-straight start. While Mariota’s passing numbers last
week weren’t eye-popping (207-1-0), he did complete 71.4% of his
passes against the Raiders and provided the rushing floor (6-40-1)
that gives him a chance at QB1 value anytime he’s in the starting
lineup. The Falcons have been better against quarterbacks than
the Raiders but that’s understandable considering they faced J.J.
McCarthy in Week 2 and Bryce Young in Week 3. The main drawback
for Mariota will be that he’s likely to be without Terry McLaurin
(quad) who has yet to practice this week, is seeking a second
opinion, and seems like he’s headed for the inactive list. I’d
still be inclined to start Mariota but wouldn’t expect a repeat
of his QB7 finish from Week 3.
Fade: Washington RBs
Without Austin
Ekeler last week, the Commanders used all three of their running
backs - Jacory
Croskey-Merritt (39.7% snaps), Chris
Rodriguez Jr. (37.9%) and Jeremy
McNichols (25.9%) in a blowout win against the Raiders. Rodriguez
got the start and played the first two drives. That usage will
likely condense in closer game scripts but for now we don’t a
have a clear picture on the rotation. “Bill” is still the favored
piece here if you need to start one of them, but a three-man RB
committee is something we like to avoid in fantasy football. The
Falcons have given up the 7th fewest fantasy points to RBs with
games against Bucky Irving, Aaron Jones/Jordan Mason and Chuba
Hubbard.
WAS FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.14
WAS FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.30
WAS FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.7
WAS FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.9
London has underperformed to start the season with 10 yards per
catch and zero TDs. He current sits as the WR43 in half PPR leagues.
Quarterback play has certainly been a problem along with a run-heavy
game script for the Falcons in Week 2 where London saw just 4
targets. We know London’s track record and a better performance
at home should be expected. The Commanders points allowed to WRs
got skewed last week by Tre Tucker’s monster performance (8-145-3),
but this isn’t a secondary that scares us off known talents like
London.
Pitts is the TE15 after three weeks, despite being held out of
the endzone. That’s respectable given his recent history. He’s
on the field more this season (79.8% snaps) and has seen a healthy
18.1% target share. Much like London, Pitts is in dire need of
better quarterback play. The Commanders gave up a monster game
to Tucker Kraft (6-124-1) but largely kept Brock Bowers (4-38-0)
in check. All of this adds up to Pitts being a mid-range TE2.
After a strong Week 1 showing (QB8) against the Bucs, it’s been
a rough go for Penix who’s completing just 58.6% of his passes
through three games. The Falcons put up a donut in last week’s
game against the Panthers in what was easily Penix’s worst game
of his early career. Kirk Cousins saw action in garbage time.
I’d expect a better showing this week but when Penix faced this
team last year (Week 17), he finished as the QB23. Look for better
options.
The Eagles have been playing a boring style of football to begin
the season… until they got behind the Rams 26-7 in the third
quarter last week. Then the passing game opened up and Hurts went
on the be the QB1 in Week 3. The question is, will they continue
to be aggressive in positive and neutral game scripts or simply
revert to running the ball with Barkley and tush-pushes down the
field as they’ve been doing for the better part of the three
games? Both Hurts and Brown after the game publicly expressed
their desire to be aggressive. Will the coaches listen and take
action?
It won’t sway my desire to start Hurts or Brown, but the
Bucs have done a decent job against the Eagles in recent games.
Hurts has thrown exactly 1 TD against this team in their last
five meetings dating back to 2021.
Smith has felt the effects of the Eagles run-heavy offense with
fantasy finishes of WR80, WR54 and WR12 to the start the season.
His 18 targets rank T-38th alongside Elic Ayomanor, Cedric Tillman
and Tyquan Thornton. The Bucs haven’t faced a legitimate threat
at the No.2 wideout this season (Ray-Ray McCloud, Xavier Hutchinson,
Tyler Johnson). Obviously, the Eagles passing attack needs to
kick it into gear to help keep Smith in the WR2/3 range. Giving
Smith the benefit of the doubt depends on your faith in the Eagles
gameplan this week against the Bucs.
Fade: N/A
PHI FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.23
PHI FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.18
PHI FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.17
PHI FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.30
Tampa Bay has some moving parts in their wide receiver room as
Mike Evans is set to miss a few weeks with a hamstring injury.
Egbuka was limited last week to 63.9% of the snaps due to a hip/groin
issue but that didn’t stop him from posting a 6-80-0 line on 8
targets. He’s off the injury report this week and should be the
top target for Baker Mayfield against the Eagles. Philadelphia
is middle of the pack against WRs to start the season but have
given up 100-yard games to CeeDee Lamb (7-110-0) and Puka Nacua
(11-112-0).
Baker is going to miss his touchdown maker (Evans) this week
which clouds his outlook for Week 4. While he may get Godwin back
(more on him below) the lack of difference makers in the passing
game and injuries along the offensive line are dings to the quarterback’s
upside. On the plus side, Baker has run for at least 33 yards
in every game which gives him a nice floor. It wouldn’t be a shock
to see Bucky and Rachaad White heavily involved in the gameplan
given the personnel issues this week, so think of Bakers as more
of high-end QB2 than QB1 this week.
Otton continues to be on the field a ton, playing 91.7% of the
snaps last week. He’s just not earning targets… only
7 on the season. That may change this week with Evans out of the
picture and Godwin’s role uncertain, so if you’re
scraping the bottom of the TE barrel this week, you could give
Otton a look.
The reports on Godwin have been encouraging. He practiced in
full on Wednesday and then skipped Thursday (planned) and reportedly
has a shot at playing after rehabbing from a broken ankle suffered
in mid-October last season. We should get more info over the weekend
but even if he does suit up, it’s difficult to imagine him
getting a full workload in his first game back.
Rookie wideout Tetairoa McMillan is quickly becoming Bryce Young’s
top target. Through three games, McMillan has hauled in 14 receptions
on 27 targets, highlighted by a 100-yard outing in Week 2. What
stands out most is his ability to command steady volume -- including
an 8-target day in Week 3 despite Young attempting just 24 passes
in a blowout of the Falcons. That translated to a 33% target share,
proof that his involvement isn’t game-script dependent.
McMillan profiles as a WR3 for now, but with steady volume and
a growing role, he’s knocking on the door of WR2 status.
If the touchdowns follow, he could even flirt with WR1 range during
bye weeks. The one caveat: he showed up as a non-participant on
Wednesday with a hamstring injury and was limited Thursday. If
active, he’s the best fantasy option on this offense.
Hubbard’s workload has been strong (team leader in backfield
touches), but an injury designation (calf) late in the week raises
questions about how much he’ll be trusted against New England.
Matchup-wise, this is also a tough draw. The Patriots have stifled
opposing rushing attacks, allowing just 147 rushing yards all
year and no individual RB to crack 50 yards against them. Even
explosive names like Ashton Jeanty and De’Von Achane were held
in check on the ground.
The silver lining? New England has been softer versus backs in
the passing game, giving up 22 catches through three weeks. Hubbard’s
role as a checkdown option gives him some PPR appeal, but with
health concerns layered on top of a stingy run defense, he’s
more of a risky RB2/Flex this week.
Dowdle might look tempting if Hubbard is banged up, but unless
Hubbard misses entirely, Dowdle’s role is capped at backup duties
-- and he may even split with Trevor Etienne. If Hubbard is out,
Dowdle would bump into low-end RB2/Flex range, but otherwise,
he belongs on benches.
CAR FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.31
CAR FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.15
CAR FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.30
CAR FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.8
Drake Maye continues to build his case as a rising fantasy QB.
Through three weeks, he’s delivered efficient passing plus
rushing upside, logging 87 rushing yards and a score on the ground.
That floor-boosting mobility pairs well with his sharp completion
percentage, putting him firmly in the low-end QB1 conversation
each week.
The matchup looks rough on paper -- Carolina has allowed the
2nd-fewest FPts to opposing QBs -- but it’s worth noting that
they’ve faced three struggling pass offenses – the Cardinals,
Jaguars, and Falcons. They also let Kyler Murray scramble for
32 yards in Week 2, a hint that Maye can exploit them with his
legs.
This game projects as low scoring, but Maye’s dual-threat
ability keeps him firmly in lineups as a locked-in QB1, with room
for upside if he finds the end zone on the ground.
The New England backfield has been maddening. Rhamondre Stevenson
and Antonio Gibson both coughed up costly fumbles in Week 3, which
at least opened the door for rookie TreVeyon Henderson to see
more snaps. Henderson wasn’t efficient, but he didn’t fumble --
notable since he never lost a ball in college at Ohio State.
If the coaching staff starts valuing ball security over experience,
Henderson could climb into a double-digit touch role. Until that
happens, he’s more of a stash/Flex dart throw than a confident
start. This is a situation to monitor closely for usage shifts.
Henry is riding high after an 8-90-2 eruption against Pittsburgh
that vaulted him to TE4 in FPts/G. But that big day came just
one week after a 1-9 dud against Miami. Inconsistency has always
been Henry’s calling card, and in what projects to be a
low-scoring, low-red-zone-opportunity game, he’s risky.
He remains a streaming TE1 option -- but expectations should be
tempered, especially against a Panthers defense that has held
opposing TEs to minimal impact.
Quentin Johnston and Keenan Allen both look poised to take advantage
of a generous Giants secondary that has already given up the 2nd
most fantasy points to opposing WRs this season.
Johnston has been efficient with his opportunities, turning 14
targets into 9-147-1 through three weeks. His 16.3 yards per catch
and ability to stretch the field give him a strong ceiling in
what should be a favorable matchup.
Allen, meanwhile, remains a reliable option out of the slot,
posting 11-128-2 on 17 targets so far. His chemistry with Justin
Herbert and red zone usage make him an equally strong play. With
Herbert averaging 38 attempts per game, both receivers carry WR2
value with legitimate WR1 upside if this contest turns into a
shootout.
Omarion Hampton finally broke through in Week 3, handling 19
carries for 70 yards and a touchdown while also catching six passes
for 59 yards. That workload came on a 65% snap share, his highest
of the season, and it appears he’s cementing himself as the lead
back now that Najee Harris is gone.
The Giants have been gashed on the ground, giving up 337 rushing
yards and 4 TDs on 65 carries (5.2 YPC) to opposing RBs through
three games. They’ve also allowed 13 receptions to the position.
If Hampton maintains his dual-threat role, he could post RB2 numbers
with upside for more.
The downside? His Weeks 1-2 inefficiency (23 carries for 72 yards)
reminds us that volatility is still in play. Hampton is a solid
start, but not quite a “set-and-forget” option yet.
Fade: N/A
LAC FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.20
LAC FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.29
LAC FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.26
LAC FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.25
With Tyrone Tracy Jr. doubtful (shoulder), Cam Skattebo is trending
toward a lead role in Week 4. He flashed in Week 3, rushing 10
times for 60 yards and a touchdown while also catching six passes
for 61 yards. Across three weeks, he’s at 23-102-2 on the ground
plus 6-61-0 as a receiver.
The matchup isn’t soft -- the Chargers have allowed just
167 rushing yards on 36 RB carries (4.6 YPC) and one rushing score
all season. But volume is king, and Skattebo projects for 15+
touches with pass-game involvement, making him a high-upside RB2
even against a stingy run defense.
The Giants’ quarterback switch from Russell Wilson to rookie
Jaxson Dart could make Malik Nabers a risky play against the Chargers
in Week 4. The offense may lean heavily on the run-game to control
the clock, reducing passing opportunities.
Through three weeks, Nabers has 16 receptions for 251 yards and
two touchdowns on 32 targets, including a monster Week 2 with
9 catches for 167 yards and two scores, but he faded in Week 3
with two receptions for 13 yards on seven targets against the
Chiefs.
The matchup itself is not terrible: the Chargers have surrendered
484 yards and 3 TDs to WRs through three games. Still, Nabers’
reliance on QB play and game script makes him volatile. His talent
warrants WR2 consideration, but expectations should be tempered.
Wan’Dale Robinson has been efficient so far, catching 14
of 18 targets for 197 yards and a touchdown (77.8% catch rate).
Most of that production came in Week 2, though (8-142-1), and
his role could diminish in a run-heavy game plan under Dart.
With fewer than 6 targets in two of three games, Robinson’s
floor is fragile when volume dips. Against a Chargers defense
that limits secondary WRs well, he profiles as a risky flex at
best this week.
In an otherwise dysfunctional Jaguars offense, Travis Etienne
has been the lone bright spot. He’s averaging 5.9 yards
per carry and 3.0 yards after contact, while contributing both
on the ground and through the air. Through three weeks, he’s
producing 100.3 total yards per game and looking much more like
the dynamic version we saw before his down 2024 campaign.
The 49ers have held two of three backfields under 70 rushing
yards this season, but Etienne’s track record (RB4 and RB15
finishes) and volume make him a solid RB2 play, even in a difficult
matchup.
After an electric 1,400-yard rookie campaign, Brian Thomas Jr.
has stumbled badly in Year 2, with only 7 receptions on 25 targets
and 4 drops through three weeks. A lingering wrist injury may
be contributing to his struggles, but until he proves otherwise,
he’s become a boom-or-bust play. The talent and target share
keep him in lineups, but expectations need to be tempered.
Trevor Lawrence’s 56% completion rate isn’t solely on him --
his receivers have posted a brutal 13% drop rate. Still, with
Thomas banged up, Hunter overmatched, and few reliable options
outside TE Brenton Strange, Lawrence’s efficiency is suffering.
Worse, his rushing upside has faded -- just 8.3 yards per game
in 2025, down from an already modest 11.9 last year. Against the
49ers, he’s a fringe QB2 at best.
Travis Hunter, meanwhile, is shifting more toward defense than
offense, with his offensive snap rate falling from 64% to 53%
while his defensive workload has jumped from 9% to 68%. His offensive
struggles (34.4 passer rating when targeted) and massive snap
load (75–85 per game) make him both ineffective and at high
injury risk. Unless you’re in an IDP league, Hunter is an
easy fade.
JAC FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.10
JAC FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.28
JAC FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.6
JAC FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.26
Ricky Pearsall has quickly emerged as a focal point of the 49ers’
attack, logging two 100-yard games in the first three weeks and
topping 100 yards in three of his last five overall. Averaging
9 combined targets and carries per game, Pearsall has proven matchup-proof
and scheme-proof.
Jacksonville has been repeatedly burned by top wideouts -- Ja’Marr
Chase (29.5 FPts), Nico Collins (20.4), and rookie Tetairoa McMillan
(5-68-0) -- putting Pearsall firmly in WR1 territory as long as
his knee issue truly is minor.
San Francisco’s QB situation is still murky. Reports suggest
Brock Purdy could return, but if he sits, Mac Jones would draw
another start.
The Jaguars have allowed the 10th-most points to QBs, but it’s
been almost entirely volume-driven. They’ve forced at least
2 INTs in every game and are holding opponents to 5.7 YPA. With
opponents averaging 39 pass attempts per game, the volume matters
-- and Shanahan has let Jones sling it 39 and 41 times in his
first two starts. Jones has averaged 282 yards and 2 TDs in those
games, making him a high-end QB2.
Purdy, however, would likely lean on the run game and shorter
passing in his return from a toe injury, making him a mid-QB2
with lower volume expectations.
Jennings has missed time with an ankle injury and, even if active,
faces a tough matchup. Jacksonville has smothered opposing WR2s,
holding them to just 8 catches on 23 targets for 91 yards and
one score all year. Already operating at less than 100%, Jennings
profiles as no more than a WR4 this week.
Free from the offensive purgatory of East Rutherford, NJ Daniel
Jones finally looks like the QB the Giants once envisioned when
they drafted him 6th overall. Through three weeks, he leads the
league in ANY/A (adjusted net yards per attempt), has the lowest
sack and interception rates, and has accounted for 6 total TDs
(3 passing, 3 rushing). Jones’ rushing upside remains intact
-- remember, he’s run for as many as 7 TDs in a season --
and his accuracy is paying off with Michael Pittman Jr. and Tyler
Warren. Averaging 272 yards per game, he’s a QB1 this week
against a Rams defense that’s been middling versus opposing
passers.
Michael Pittman Jr. has reestablished himself as a weekly WR2,
thanks to steady volume and the Colts’ efficient passing
game. The Rams’ front has piled up 12 sacks, which should
funnel even more short and intermediate targets Pittman’s
way.
Tight end Tyler Warren is producing 8.8 FPts/G despite not yet
finding the end zone, showing a reliable floor. His usage and
athleticism suggest his first NFL touchdown is imminent, making
him a clear TE1 play versus Los Angeles.
Downs has been quiet in Indy’s spread attack, seeing just 14
targets across three games (8 of those in Week 2). His role could
grow if Alec Pierce (concussion) sits, as Pierce leaves behind
13 vacated targets. While some may flow to deep threat Adonai
Mitchell (career 14.3 aDOT), Downs should absorb a share as the
short-area safety valve. He profiles as a WR4 if Pierce is out,
especially for managers in deeper leagues.
Fade: N/A
IND FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.25
IND FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.20
IND FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.19
IND FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.16
Davante Adams is trending toward playing through a hamstring
issue, but the matchup is brutal. The Colts’ coverage duo of Chavarius
Ward and Camryn Bynum has erased big names this season -- Tyreek
Hill (6.0 FPts), Courtland Sutton (1.1), and Calvin Ridley (3.2).
While Ridley has struggled overall, Hill and Sutton have been
productive in every other game. Adams doesn’t move around the
formation the way Puka Nacua does, making him easier to trap in
coverage. Coming off just 5.1 FPts last week versus Houston, Adams
still carries volume (9.7 targets/game) but could struggle to
reach flex value.
If Adams sits, Tutu Atwell is worth a look. He’s provided
stopgap fantasy production in injury-riddled stretches before
-- including four straight games of 8.1+ FPts last year. The Colts’
defense has been vulnerable against slot WRs: Tony Franklin dropped
20 FPts on them in Week 2, followed by Elic Ayomanor with 11.8
last week. That makes Atwell a sneaky flex, especially in deeper
formats, if Adams is out.
Matthew Stafford has yet to top 20 fantasy points this season
(and did so only four times in 2024). The Colts are holding QBs
to just 5.7 yards per attempt, and with Adams potentially limited,
Stafford projects as a low-ceiling QB3.
Caleb Williams had a career day against Dallas, and while others
may do the same before the season ends, it’s still encouraging
to see the rookie produce QB1-level value. With his rushing upside
and Rome Odunze’s strong start to the season, Williams is
once again a top-12 option against the Raiders.
Rome Odunze has taken advantage of the departure of Keenan Allen
and is cutting into D.J. Moore’s volume. The second-year wideout
looks as advertised -- currently 7th in targets and 3rd in FPts/G
among WRs -- and should be viewed as a WR1 against the Raiders.
D’Andre Swift faces a defense that’s allowed the
9th fewest points to RBs, but the Raiders have yet to face a top-15
backfield (NE, LAC, WAS). Just last week, Washington’s Jeremy
McNichols and company broke through for 143 total rushing yards
and 2 TDs, exposing cracks in Las Vegas’ run defense. Swift,
averaging 17 touches per game and ranking RB24 in FPts/G, profiles
as an RB2 in this matchup.
Has Odunze already overtaken Moore as Chicago’s alpha WR?
It’s possible, but Moore’s role isn’t gone --
he’s still drawn 16 targets and added 6 rushing attempts.
With the Raiders giving up the 5th most points to opposing WRs,
Moore holds WR3 appeal this week despite the changing pecking
order.
Luther Burden III flashed with 101 yards in Week 3, but he’s
still at just 5 total targets through three games, buried behind
Odunze and Moore. He carries a near-zero weekly floor.
Cole Kmet leads Bears TEs in snaps (91%) but has mostly been
a blocker in this loaded offense. Even with Loveland (hip) uncertain,
Kmet’s 8 targets on the year aren’t enough to put
him on the fantasy radar, especially against a Raiders defense
that’s allowed only 9 TE receptions and no TDs.
As for Loveland, his rookie season has started quietly (41% snaps,
6 targets). The talent is real, but the usage isn’t there.
He’s a stash, not a starter.
CHI FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.4
CHI FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.5
CHI FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.3
CHI FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.10
Rookie RB Ashton Jeanty hasn’t exploded yet (7.7 FPts/G,
RB35), but the advanced stats are encouraging -- 13 broken tackles
on 47 rushes. He now gets a Bears defense allowing 5.3 yards per
carry and 3 rushing TDs, making him a breakout candidate.
Jakobi Meyers remains a steady WR2, posting at least 63 yards
in every game so far. He hasn’t hit his ceiling yet, but
with the Bears defense struggling against WRs, this could be the
week he finds the end zone.
Geno Smith has topped 289 passing yards in two games this year,
but sacks (15 taken) and lack of rushing (35 total yards) have
capped his fantasy upside. Against a Bears defense giving up 256
passing yards per game, he has QB2 streaming appeal -- but managers
should be wary of his limited mobility at 35 years old.
Tre Tucker was a hot waiver add after exploding for 145 yards
and 3 TDs last week. But with Brock Bowers returning to full health,
Tucker is a high-risk flex whose volume could shrink fast.
Thornton has just 12 targets and 4.0 FPts/G through three weeks.
With Bowers back and Tucker flashing, there isn’t enough
opportunity for him to be more than a deep-league stash.
Zay Flowers had a quiet Week 3 (2-13-0 on three targets), but
he remains Lamar Jackson’s top target for a third-straight
year, averaging 7.7 looks per game. While his ceiling as a true
WR1 may be capped, Flowers’ steady usage (218 yards on 20
targets through the first two weeks) keeps him firmly in WR2 territory
-- especially in what projects as a high-scoring matchup.
Derrick Henry has had a rough couple weeks, with three fumbles
and just 80 total yards. Still, it was only three games ago that
he shredded Buffalo for 182 yards and two scores. At 31, Henry
still has plenty left, and paired with Jackson’s threat
as a runner, the Chiefs’ front will have its hands full.
He remains an RB1, even in a tougher matchup.
Mark Andrews rewarded patient managers in Week 3 with a dominant
6-91-2 line on six targets, a performance that swung plenty of
fantasy matchups. Kansas City has been stingy against tight ends
to start 2025 (fourth-fewest points allowed), but context matters
– they haven’t faced a single TE currently in the
top 30. Andrews is still streaky, but his game-breaking potential
makes him a locked-in TE1 in Week 4.
Rashod Bateman popped in Week 3 with 5-61-1 on seven targets,
but his overall usage (five targets per game) remains unchanged
from 2024. Last season’s fantasy relevance was touchdown-driven
(9 TDs), a number unlikely to repeat given his career scoring
history (just four TDs in his first 34 games). In deeper formats,
he’s a desperation flex, but in most leagues, Bateman’s
volatility keeps him on the bench.
BAL FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.5
BAL FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.1
BAL FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.12
BAL FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.7
Patrick Mahomes sits ninth among QBs in FPts/G (21.1), thanks
in part to his legs -- he leads all quarterbacks with 125 rushing
yards. With a short-handed WR group, Mahomes has leaned more on
scrambling to generate offense, keeping him firmly in the QB1
mix. The possible return of Xavier Worthy (shoulder) should help
in the passing game and help stretch the field to open rushing
lanes for Mahomes.
Kareem Hunt’s numbers (27 touches, 104 total yards through three
weeks) don’t look appealing, but the matchup does. Baltimore has
been gashed by RBs -- David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs combined
for 53.3 fantasy points in Week 3, and the Browns’ committee produced
25.9 points in Week 2. Hunt is favored over Isiah Pacheco near
the goal line (8 TDs to 1 since last year), making him a solid
flex with sneaky scoring upside.
Tyquan Thornton is emerging as a trusted option for Mahomes,
with his target counts rising in back-to-back weeks (5 and 9)
and touchdowns in two straight. His 5-71 line in Week 3 could’ve
been bigger if Mahomes connected on a deep shot where Thornton
beat the defense. The big question is how much Xavier Worthy’s
return will impact his role. Both receivers are boom-bust flex
plays until roles settle.
Marquise Brown has struggled since Worthy went down in Week 1.
After 16 targets in the opener, he’s averaged just 5.5 per
game since, producing 36 yards per contest. Worthy’s return
could actually help Brown by pulling coverage deep, but his ceiling
looks limited. He’s a safer floor play than Thornton or
Worthy, but still volatile.
Travis Kelce’s decline continues -- he’s failed to
surpass four receptions in five straight games dating back to
last postseason, with just one touchdown over that span. The Ravens
haven’t allowed more than 48 receiving yards to a tight
end in 2025, despite facing multiple top-15 options (Kincaid,
Njoku, Fannin, LaPorta). Kelce hangs onto back-end TE1 status,
but expectations need to be tempered.
Isiah Pacheco has some appeal in this matchup given Baltimore’s
recent struggles versus RBs, but with only six targets all season
and little red-zone involvement, he profiles as a risky flex rather
than a reliable starter.
Jordan Love draws an excellent bounce-back opportunity in Week
4 against a vulnerable Cowboys defense.
Through three games, Love has completed 53 of 78 passes (67.9%)
for 663 yards, five touchdowns, and one interception, while adding
a rushing score. His Week 3 dud (183 passing yards) was largely
tied to injuries to Jayden Reed and Tucker Kraft, leaving the
passing game limited. Still, Love has shown a strong connection
with his receivers and is probably the safest fantasy bet in the
Packers passing attack.
The matchup is prime: Dallas has already allowed 900 passing
yards and seven touchdowns through the air, plus two rushing scores
to opposing QBs. As road favorites, Green Bay is likely to air
it out, giving Love clear QB1 upside with realistic 300-yard,
multi-touchdown potential.
Rookie Matthew Golden has yet to break out, but Week 4 offers
a chance. He has just six catches for 68 yards on eight targets
so far, though he nearly had a long touchdown in Week 2 before
being forced out of bounds.
The matchup boosts his appeal -- Dallas has given up 661 receiving
yards and six scores to WRs already, struggling particularly against
perimeter playmakers. Golden’s speed and route-running could
expose those weaknesses, but his target share (just 8 targets
in three games) leaves him volatile. He’s best viewed as
a WR3/flex with breakout potential in this matchup.
Fade: Other Packers WRs
Romeo Doubs, Dontayvion Wicks, and the rest of the Packers’
supporting wideouts remain dart throws. Green Bay’s offense
distributes targets widely, but none of these options have shown
enough consistent talent or usage to be trusted in fantasy. Even
in a favorable matchup, they’re bench stashes rather than
startable assets.
GB FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.32
GB FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.27
GB FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.29
GB FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.6
Jake Ferguson stepped up as the focal point of the Dallas passing
game in Week 3 with CeeDee Lamb sidelined, posting a career-best
13 catches for 82 yards on 14 targets. That brought his season
totals to 27 receptions for 183 yards on 32 targets, an elite
workload for a TE. With Lamb expected to miss multiple games,
Ferguson should continue to operate as Dak Prescott’s security
blanket.
The Packers, while strong overall, have been vulnerable to tight
ends, allowing the second-most receiving yards to the position.
Ferguson’s red-zone usage and target volume make him a locked-in
TE1 with upside for a 100-yard game.
George Pickens also carries significant appeal. He’s posted
back-to-back identical lines (5-68-1 on 9 targets), establishing
himself as Dallas’ best perimeter option. With the Cowboys
likely playing catch-up, Pickens could see double-digit targets,
giving him WR2 upside even if efficiency dips.
Javonte Williams has been one of Dallas’ few bright spots,
rushing 43 times for 227 yards (4.8 YPC) and three touchdowns
while also catching 13 passes for 59 yards. His versatility and
steady volume have made him a reliable flex option.
Week 4 poses challenges, though -- the Packers rank top three
in rush defense, allowing just 64.3 rushing yards per game to
RBs. If Dallas falls behind early, Williams’ carries could
dry up, leaving him reliant on passing work. He’s still
in play as an RB2/flex, but game script risk caps his upside.
Dak Prescott faces a brutal setup against Green Bay’s defense
without his top weapon in CeeDee Lamb.
Through three games, Prescott has completed 90 of 126 passes
(71.4%) for 800 yards, three TDs, and three INTs. His Week 3 line
-- 31 completions for 251 yards, one TD, and two picks -- showcased
his volume but also his growing turnover problem and lack of explosive
plays.
The Packers have surrendered just 567 passing yards and three
touchdowns to QBs across three games, locking down opposing passers.
Combine that with Green Bay’s elite pass rush led by Micah
Parsons and Prescott’s limited receiving options, and you
get a capped ceiling. He’s no better than a shaky QB2 this
week.
Garrett Wilson has been the engine of the Jets’ passing game,
making him a must-start in Week 4 against Miami. Through three
games, he’s tallied 21 receptions for 229 yards and two touchdowns
on 30 targets. His Week 3 showing against New England -- 10 catches
for 84 yards and a score on 13 targets -- was a reminder of both
his talent and volume-driven floor. Averaging 10 targets per game,
Wilson’s usage remains secure regardless of whether Justin Fields
or Tyrod Taylor is under center.
The Dolphins have held up decently against WRs so far, but Wilson’s
route-running, contested-catch skills, and target dominance give
him WR1 value with a strong chance at another 100-yard performance.
Breece Hall has been one of the more frustrating fantasy players
to start the season, with back-to-back weeks averaging under 3.0
YPC and still searching for his first touchdown. Complicating
matters, second-year back Braelon Allen is pushing for more touches,
further chipping away at Hall’s rushing volume.
Hall has at least stayed afloat as a pass-catcher, catching eight
passes for 78 yards on 11 targets. Miami’s run defense has
allowed 204 rushing yards and two scores on 46 RB carries, plus
50 yards through the air on just seven receptions. Still, the
Jets’ tendency toward a pass-heavy game script in lower-scoring
contests caps Hall’s role. He’s a volatile RB2 whose
upside is tethered to whether he can find the end zone.
Braelon Allen is earning more involvement, but not nearly enough
to crack starting lineups yet. He’s logged just 16 touches
through three weeks, turning them into one score and a 3.6 YPC
average. His 33% snap share in Week 3 shows progress, but Breece
Hall’s presence limits his ceiling.
The Dolphins have given up 209 rushing yards and two touchdowns
on 60 RB carries, plus 15 receptions for 119 yards, so the matchup
isn’t bad. The issue is simply Allen’s volume -- he’s
still a rotational piece in a committee, best left as a stash
in deeper leagues.
NYJ FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.13
NYJ FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.13
NYJ FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.10
NYJ FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.22
Tyreek Hill has shown flashes, but Miami’s offensive struggles
have capped his output. Through three weeks, he has 15 receptions
for 198 yards and one touchdown on 23 targets. Week 2 offered
a glimpse of his game-breaking potential (6-109 on 7 targets),
but Week 3 brought a modest 5-49 line on 10 targets -- though
he did manage to score.
He’s averaging 7.7 targets per game, but efficiency is
way down compared to his usual standards. The Jets have allowed
just 369 yards and two touchdowns to WRs across three games, so
the matchup isn’t ideal either. Hill remains a high-risk,
high-upside WR2 until Miami’s offense finds its rhythm.
Don’t be fooled by Jaylen Waddle’s back-to-back touchdowns—his
usage paints a grim picture. He’s drawn just 17 targets
in three games, hasn’t caught more than five passes in any
outing, and is averaging under 10.0 yards per reception. This
isn’t a new trend either; Waddle failed to clear five receptions
in all but two games last season.
His shallow route tree and low target volume make him overly
touchdown-dependent. Unless Miami’s offense improves drastically,
Waddle is no better than a risky WR3. Chasing scores here is a
trap.
Through three games, Chase Brown has looked nothing like the
player who carried the Bengals’ backfield last season. He’s
averaging just 2.0 yards per rush and 5.4 yards per reception,
and he hasn’t found the end zone yet. The one silver lining:
Brown’s role is safe. His 55 total touches rank 12th in
the NFL, showing that volume remains on his side.
This week offers a glimmer of hope. With LB Dre Greenlaw on IR,
the Broncos have struggled against opposing RBs, surrendering
the 9th-most fantasy points to the position. If Jake Browning
can keep the Broncos from stacking the box, Brown could return
flex-level value -- but managers should temper expectations until
his efficiency improves.
Tee Higgins has also stumbled out of the gate, posting just 7
receptions on 14 targets. That’s startlingly low usage for
a player expected to be a steady WR2. But Higgins has had dry
spells before -- in 2023, he averaged only 5.0 FPts/G across a
three-game stretch before bouncing back with 11.8 FPts/G the rest
of the way. His talent demands patience, though this week against
a disciplined Broncos secondary, he’s best treated as a
shaky flex option.
Browning’s debut as the starter was rough, and things didn’t
get better last week. He’s now thrown 5 interceptions in just
two starts, including a pair against Minnesota’s aggressive defense.
Facing Denver’s Patrick Surtain II and a unit that allows just
4.9 yards per play, Browning is in another brutal spot. His rapport
with Chase and Higgins suggests better days may come -- perhaps
in Week 5 versus Detroit -- but for now, he’s a clear sit.
CIN FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.15
CIN FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.2
CIN FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.18
CIN FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.5
J.K. Dobbins is thriving in Denver’s backfield, averaging
5.4 yards per rush -- right in line with his 5.3 career average.
After his first fully healthy season (1,000+ total yards in 2024),
he’s picked up where he left off, scoring in each of the
Broncos’ first three games. His production has him 11th
among RBs in FPts/G, well ahead of his RB17 finish last year.
Against a Bengals defense allowing the 2nd-most fantasy points
to RBs, Dobbins is a locked-in RB1 for Week 4.
Courtland Sutton has alternated quiet and strong outings, with
Week 2 being the dud (1-6-0). He rebounded in Week 3, hauling
in 6 catches for 118 yards and a TD. Sutton’s role in the
red zone and big-play ability give him weekly WR2 upside, especially
with the Broncos likely to generate scoring opportunities against
a reeling Cincinnati defense.
Bo Nix ranks just 21st in FPts/G among QBs with multiple starts,
an underwhelming mark considering his receivers have only one
drop all season. Accuracy has been the bigger problem -- a 74%
On Target Rate despite a conservative 6.6 Intended Air Yards per
Attempt (IAY/A). Nix hasn’t topped 206 passing yards in
a game, and Sean Payton may again limit his attempts to avoid
costly mistakes. He’s no more than a mid-QB2 this week.
R.J. Harvey flashed in Week 1 against Tennessee with 69 yards
on 7 touches and could see similar usage if game script favors
Denver. The Bengals’ defense, ranked 31st versus RBs, creates
an opening for Harvey to deliver value in deeper leagues, particularly
if the Broncos get out to a lead.
Evan Engram, returning from a back injury, looks on track to
play Monday night. Engram’s skill set is a natural fit in
this offense, thriving on short-area routes that complement Nix’s
game. His snaps might be limited, and Denver could skew run-heavy,
but his talent keeps him in the borderline TE1 mix.
Franklin started hot (13.2 FPts/G across Weeks 1–2) but
crashed in Week 3 with just 2 catches for 8 yards. His 19 targets
remain close to Sutton’s team-high, but Engram’s return
should siphon looks away. Add in a potentially positive game script,
and Franklin’s role could shrink further. He’s a WR5
until proven otherwise.
